The Ant, The Grasshopper, Tim Ferriss, and Ben Franklin.

“Do you want ants? Because that’s how you get ants.” – Archer

grasshopper

Thankfully I’m not alone.  Stupid Grasshoppers.

There are occasions when a simple question can punch you in your gut like a rabid Mike Tyson reacting to a paper cut that you just poured lemon juice on.  Here’s a question that hit me last week:

“What do you do with your money?”

“I keep it in the bank.”

“Then why do you do so many things you dislike to earn more of it?”

The above quote is from a conversation between Tim Ferriss (an author with an unusual fondness for the letter S) and Ryan Holiday (I’ve mentioned him before) –you can read the rest of the article here (LINK).  Holiday puts this exchange first in his piece – it’s pretty powerful, so powerful that it might even relate to issues we face as a country – not that I’ll solve those.  That sounds like it would be hard.

Working is good for you.  Producing value is good for you.  It says so right on the label.  But I worry sometimes about money being my goal instead of a way to allow me to work toward my real goals.  When I lived paycheck to paycheck, I was fixated on money – as a single dad with little savings, it was tough.  Did I focus on fulfillment?  No, I focused on keeping enough money in my bank account so I could pay the electrical bill, which is why it was 40°F in the house in the winter and 85°F in the house in the summer – air conditioning was for closers, and the kids were awful about closing.  Mainly awful about closing the window, but I digress.

coffeecloser

I had Alec Baldwin give the kids a speech about cleaning their room.  He fired them, but only after they cried.  But Pugsley got a set of steak knives.

When you’re in that condition, life is about that struggle for money.  I remember we’d eat Kraft® Macaroni and Cheese™ on the nights we weren’t having Hamburger Helper©.  On really good nights, we’d have actual hamburger in the Hamburger Helper©.  If an expense wasn’t absolutely required?  I’d avoid it.  Oil changes?  Why would you do that, there’s still some in the car?  What do I look like, a Rockefeller?  Stitches?  That’s what Super Glue® is for.

At that point in my life I viewed money as the end.  Everything was about making more of it or saving what I had.

When I really think about it, maybe the only common value we have left as a country is this secular religion of chasing money.  It’s like the old fable of the Grasshopper and the Ants, where the Ants work all summer to store food for the winter, but the Grasshopper uses a leveraged buyout to get money to buy the mortgage to the Anthill from the bank and bulldozes the Anthill to put up a Starbucks®.

Okay, that’s not the way the fable ended.  The first time I saw the Ant and the Grasshopper, it was the 1934 Disney® cartoon version.  They showed it at school on a field trip because movies are easier than teaching.  The end of the movie version of that fable had the Ants inviting the Grasshopper into the Anthill for the winter, provided that the Grasshopper played music for them and voted for FDR.  I was a horrible child – six year-old me thought the Ants were just incentivizing negative Grasshopper behavior and I thought he should have been left out in the cold.  Why?  Because even at age six I was heartless.

I would have enjoyed the original fable more.  In Aesop’s version, the Ants work all summer, and the Grasshopper plays all summer.  When it comes time for winter, the Grasshopper comes begging from the Ant, and the Ant tells the Grasshopper to die in a fire.  I find that a bit more satisfying than the Disney™ version, but I guess Disney© didn’t like the idea of having a cartoon turn into Silence of The Grasshopper where the Ants eat the Grasshopper with some fava beans and a nice chianti.  It could be that hordes of traumatized and crying six year olds isn’t good for business, unless you’re a therapist.

Thankfully, if the story of the Grasshopper and the Ant were real and happening today, the Grasshoppers would form a Grasshopper PAC and would vote in a pro-Grasshopper Congressbug that would immediately introduce legislation to tax the unfair profits of Ants.  Additionally, the Grasshoppers would also denounce the Ants for the culture they created that was the source of all that wealth.  It’s only fair, right?

Me?  All kidding aside, for most of my life I’ve been an Ant.  Working huge numbers of hours to try to provide for the family, build up some financial resources for the future.  Some years I worked in excess of 3,000 stressful hours to provide for the family – that’s an average work week of over sixty hours, every week for a year.  Some people work even harder.  The kicker?   There’s an alternate view of the Ant:  some felt that the Ant isn’t always the good guy, that his very industriousness was driven by the love of money.  In the words of dead-guy-with-a-comic-book-worthy-name-from-1690, Roger L’Strange (I swear I didn’t make up that name) about the Ant (spelling and capitalization in the original):

“Vertue and Vice, in many Cases, are hardly Distinguishable but by the Name.”

In L’Strange’s oddly capitalized view, working too hard was itself a vice.  The poor Ant can’t get a break – everybody wants his stuff, but now he can’t even work hard without people piling on.

But L’Strange was right.  Maybe I worked too hard.  And maybe I am too stunningly handsome.

benedict

Okay, he’s not L’Strange, but Dr. Strange is cool.  And Benedict Cumbereberbatch Bandersnatch Cumberdoodle plays him well.

But the Ant and the Grasshopper might be the one fable that encapsulates the American dichotomy.  Are you a spender, or are you a saver?  Something tells me there might be another way.

There is a very important role of money in a free market economy.  It gives incentives for behavior that fills the needs and desires for others.  It’s a scorekeeper – resources flow to those who best used them to create economic prosperity.  It’s a rationing system for goods and services that doesn’t require the hand of government to make it function.  There are some pretty negative roles of money, too, but I’ll skip those for this post.

There is a way to be neither Ant nor Grasshopper.  If you’re working hard and understand why you’re working, that’s a start.  Paying bills is important, but trading your life away for dollars is really selling your soul.

benfranklin

As Ben Franklin said, “Dost thou love life?  Then do not squander time, for that’s the stuff life is made of.

And I don’t think Ben was talking about the magazines Life and Time.  If he was, I guess that makes the quote stupid instead of powerful, and it’s unlikely that Ben read either Life or Time, since he spent most of his time on his phone or watching Netflix®.

The powerful question remains and is really a restatement of old Ben’s comment:  “Then why do you do so many things you dislike to earn more of it (money)?”

I’m blessed now to be able to view money is a means, not an end.  The results of the Tyson punch?  Spleen ruptured.  Thankfully it’s not something serious, like having to examine my life choices . . .

TEOTWAWKI Part VIII: Barricades, Tough Decisions, and Tony Montana

“Yeah.  That’s right.  Infiltrators came up illegal from Mexico.  Cubans mostly.  They managed to infiltrate SAC bases in the Midwest, several down in Texas and wreaked a helluva lot of havoc, I’m here to tell you.” – Red Dawn

tough-times

Tough times.  Oh, sure, they make you strong, but I’d much rather have donuts.

This is part eight of a multipart series.  The rest of them are here:  (Civilization, The Iron Triangle, and YouCivilization After an EMP: TEOTWAWKI (Which is not a Hawaiian word)TEOTWAKI Part III: Get on your bikes and ride!Internet Cats, TEOTWAWKI Part IV and The Golden HordeTEOTWAWKI Part V: Camaro and Camo,  TEOTWAWKI Part VI: The Rules Change, The Center Cannot Hold, and TEOTWAWKI Part VII: Laws of Survival, Mad Dogs, and The Most Interesting Man in the World )

The story to date:  Our resourceful protagonist was far from home the night in February when an EMP hit, taking with it all of the society and the plentiful PEZ® it has provided.  He’s bicycled and walked until he’s on the final stretch home, 20 miles away, 83 hours after the EMP.  He’s already lost six pounds.  So if you were looking for an upside for the end of the world?  Your pants won’t be so tight.

The Highway Outside of Yona, 1;30PM

As I got to the stop sign at the main highway, I found myself for the third time in three days staring down the barrel of a gun.  This time an AR variant.  And as I looked to the left I saw another man pointing a deer rifle at me.  The rush of adrenaline didn’t stop me from noticing that both men had their fingers on the triggers of their rifles.  And that there was a dead body off to my right.

“Where you headed, spear-boy?”

“Millerville.”

“Not this way, you ain’t.”

In a movie he would have spit on the highway to make his point – a huge wad of tobacco juice.  He didn’t.  In fact, he didn’t look happy about being here at all.  He looked like an accountant.

But I looked over at the makeshift barricade that they’d thrown together – several cars with sandbags out in front.  They’d arranged them so they completely blocked off the highway, but it looked like they could move two of them to open it up, if they had to.

And the man who spoke wasn’t anything special – he was my age, a full three days’ worth of beard, dressing what looked like bowhunting camouflage, a bit too tight, as if he’d bought it a few years ago and hadn’t used it.  As I took in the barricade in front of me I counted about a dozen people who were pointing their rifles at me, not just the two I’d first seen.  Even though I’d come around a blind corner where they’d been concealed by the trees, they obviously had someone continuously watching that approach.

“Hands up, and drop the spear.”

I complied.

“Alright.  Good.  I’m tired of shooting people who won’t listen.  Now what you’re going to do is to turn left and head due north.  We’ll sit and watch you.  And then you’re never going to come back this way again.  Do we understand each other?”

“Listen, I just need to get to Millerville.  I wouldn’t even have to go through Yona to get there.  I’m from Millerville.”  I hated pleading.  But family was that way, and going north?  They could see me walking away for miles, which is probably why they picked this spot to cut off the main highway into town.  And once I crossed over the little hill, I had no idea how to get home – the rivers, creeks, ranches and small hills weren’t impassible, but the chances of me getting turned around or blundering into the rifle sights of a farmer who’d rather be left alone were pretty high.

“I don’t really care.  This is not my problem, and I’m not letting you be a danger to my family.  Nothing personal, bub, but I know nothing about you.”

One of the rifleman, this one an older gentleman with a real beard and a lever action adjusted his glasses.  “Phil, I do.  That’s the Scoutmaster from Millerville.  We don’t want to go shooting up Scoutmasters, do we?  We just might need some of what they teach.”

I looked, and under that retirement beard I recognized the face of another Boy Scout leader.  It had been two years since I’d been the Scoutmaster – I’d turned over that badge to a younger father, but I wasn’t about to correct  . . . what was his name . . . Ted?  Yes.  Ted.  I wasn’t about to correct Ted now.

“Ted, is that you?”

“It is.  Guys, put your guns down.”  He looked back at me.  “You armed?”

I nodded.

“Please take it out, very slowly.  Two fingers.”  I remembered that Ted was retired Highway Patrol.  Made sense that he was out here.  Very slowly, almost geologically slowly, I pulled the pistol out of my the small of my back where I had pushed it down into my pants.

I held it out to my side – two fingers.  Ted slung his rifle over his shoulder, walked up and gently took the pistol from me.  He ejected the magazine, and then worked the action to extract the bullet in the chamber, and put all of it in a voluminous coat pocket.

“Is that everything?”

“I also have a multitool.”

“Where is that?”

“In my backpack.”

“Leave it there.”

He turned back to the rest of the men.  “We’re good.  We’ll keep him here until shift change, then I’ll walk him through to the south barricade and see him on his way.”

Phil looked at Ted, ignoring me.  “Why don’t we send him up the road like everyone else?  He’s not from Yona.  We don’t owe him anything.  We have to protect ourselves.”

“Phil, Yona isn’t suddenly going to move.  A week from now, two weeks from now, next year Millerville is going to be there.  How would we look if we started treating people we know like the enemy?  Also, keep in mind, if I know him, people in Millerville know him, he isn’t just another face in the crowd.  We need to be on peaceful relations with Millerville.”

Yona was just up the road, and the Yona Wildcats were regular losers against the Millerville Pirates on the gridiron every fall.  The rivalry was there, but it had never been worse than a logo burned into an opposing field or a team name spray painted on the water tower.  They motioned me behind the barricade.  In a friendly manner, Ted asked me to recount what I’d seen out there.  I did.  After we had talked for a bit, he motioned to one of the barricade vehicles.  “No reason not to sit down a spell – you’ve done a lot of walking.”

I sat in the bed of an older F150 pickup and waited.  Half an hour later, a group of people came walking down the road towards the barricade – there were probably forty of them.  Having two miles to watch their approach made it almost painful.  Finally, they were about half a mile out.

“Positions, gentlemen.”

When the group got to 100 yards out, one of the Yona defenders fired a single warning shot.

“That’s close enough,” Phil yelled.  “Send one man up.  One only.”

One man walked forward from the group.

When he was 20 yards out, Phil said, “Close enough.  Hands up.”  He was standing next to the dead body on the road that I’d seen first.

“Hey, you don’t know how good it is to see you.  We’ve been walking for three days, from Albany.  I have children with us.  And we have sick people.  You have to help us.”  Albany was just outside of the big city.

“How many are there?”

“Thirty.”

“Any doctors, engineers, builders?”  This was from Ted.

“Nah, man, we’ve got a car dealer, a banker – he’s really rich, two sales clerks, I own a steam cleaning company.  Couple of guys who were truck drivers.”

Ted replied, “Sorry.  You’ll have to go back the way you came.”

The man got irate.  “You can’t treat us like that!  We have rights!  We need your help!  You can’t make us leave!”  His hands dropped and he began digging in his jacket and produced a revolver.  Before he could swing the revolver towards the Phil, three shots from three different rifles hit him.  His body crumpled to the pavement.

A woman from the group started screaming “Noooo,” and started running toward us.  A single warning shot rang out, and she was tackled from behind by one of the group.

They carried her back up the road, away from the barricade, and started moving back the way they had come from.  The message had been clear.

The body was pulled off to the side of the road, by one of the defenders.  Jacob?  He had played football for Yona and was a former Scout.  He picked up the pistol and checked it.

“Ted, why did you turn him away?”

Ted turned to me.  “I hate this.  I hate it so much.  But not 24 hours after this all happened, a group came in on this very road in an older car.  They shot up downtown.  They forced their way into homes.  They did despicable things.  They killed 20 people before we killed them.  And there were only six of them!  And that was the first day.  We’ve had more every day since then.  Some seemingly innocent like this group.  Some obviously not.  We’ve got to protect ourselves.  And we can’t afford to feed the entire state.  I’m expecting that you’ll see the same at Millerville.”

“But, Ted, what about compassion?  These folks weren’t a threat.”

“Maybe.  Maybe not.  What did you know about them?  Would they have been trouble?  What did they have to do to get here?  I’d love to help them, I swear to God I would.  But over a million people lived over there.  We have a town of five thousand.  There’s no way we can help them all.  Are we our brother’s keeper?  Sure.  But will die if we try to help them all.”

Nothing else happened until the end of the shift, at 6PM.  Ted mentioned that they liked to change the shifts in daylight – that way they didn’t shoot each other.

Ted and the group walked me on the highway to the southern checkpoint.  Now I was fifteen miles from home, but exhausted, and it was dark.  Ted kept my pistol and said I could come back for it sometime.  We shook hands.  The squad manning the barricades indicated I would be welcome staying with them.  I slept in the passenger seat of an old Nissan Xterra with my blanket pulled tightly around me.  It was the best sleep I’d had in three days.

I woke up when the bullet smashed through the rear window of the Xterra and out the window where I was sleeping.

Fort Custer, EMP +3

The morning of day three, a corporal in 1st Platoon, Charlie Company asked a simple question.

“They’ve forgotten us.  Who wants to get out?”

Pretty soon the men began planning.  None of them were local.  They had argued about where to go, but the Corporal, Walt Davis, said “Why don’t we go, well, where it is we go.  We’ve been training for years for this crap.  Now we’re in it.  And we’re not too far from the sort of equipment that could make us kings around here!”

“Let’s plan for the basics, like we’ve been trained – transport.  Weapons.  Supplies.  Communication.  Anything that will give us a tactical advantage.  Then let’s find a nice farm town with nice curvy farm girls and take over.  No offense, Valdez.”

She grinned, “I might like a curvy farm girl myself, Walt.”

The platoon laughed.  Valdez wasn’t picky.

By noon they had managed to scrape together two transport trucks that were still working, and functioned on diesel.  Manny, a private from Alabama, maintained that if it was diesel, he could keep it running forever.  Weapons were a different matter.  Liberating their fully automatic M-4s, several crates of ammo and grenades hadn’t been all that hard.  The soldiers guarding that armory were long gone, and getting it required persistence, but little else.

The heavy artillery – the anti-personnel mines, the mortars and other crew-served weapons were tightly locked up, and those soldiers were dug in and gung-ho.  Getting them would be more trouble than it was worth.  Davis reasoned that the automatic weapons and grenades they had would be enough to melt almost anything the platoon would see outside.

Corporal Davis looked at the loaded trucks and 1st Platoon, Charlie Company.  “Let’s go!  I’m hungry, the world’s gone, and we might as well take what we want!”  Only about half the platoon was following Walt.  The rest had decided to stay and wait for orders, but weren’t willing to try to stop Walt.  That made Walt happy – he didn’t need anyone slowing him down.  Or anyone competing to give orders.

When the trucks hit the chain link gates at noon, they were going forty miles an hour.  The gates didn’t even slow them down.

### (for now)

How will society react after a world-changing catastrophe?  In the large cities, as we’ve discussed, order is only thinly maintained, and at the cost of a constant battle between the police and the barely attached members of society that view gang violence as a good day.  Lost in that is the respect for civil rights, but enshrined in that is that good behavior is like a two year old with a cookie jar – it’s reserved for when someone is looking.

lowcontrol

I’m Tony Montana.  You killed my doughnut.  Prepare to diet.

Power off, lights out, police gone?  Quickly any and all red lines or blue lines break down into chaos and fire and bloodshed.  If there weren’t ample evidence of this in the history of large cities in the United States, I’d think the previous sentence was overly dramatic and probably an exaggeration.  But after the Los Angeles riots of the 1990’s and the New York riots of “whenever the power goes off” and the constant bloodshed of a Chicago, it should be clear that we’re only keeping civilization in place through a pretty significant effort, combined with a curtailment of civil liberties.

That’s the problem Yona has.  Yona is Cherokee for “bear” and it’s likely that the last bear was killed in Yona in 1890.  But Yona’s problem isn’t bears – Yona is a city in the direct line of drift from the Big City.  As people abandon the criminal killing machine that Big City has become, they spread out, and are becoming less concentrated.  But a group, even a small group, showing up unexpectedly in Yona armed, drunk and without any trappings of society?  That made Yona make hard decisions, quickly.

And the hard decisions will show up like they always have in history.  Blood first.  Are they your kin?  Even a crappy cousin is better than a stranger.  Are they from your town?  The citizens from small towns will band to protect each other first.  Every able bodied man (and woman?) will quickly be deputized.  Arms, generally in surplus in small towns, will be common.

doomstead

Here’s a map of what an EMP might look like.  Yeouch.  The plus side?  It looks like a smiley-faced cyclops clown.  (Source- Doomstead Diner)

As our protagonist learned, ties to other small towns will help – whatever they are.  Family and cousins and bankers and other prominent folks who have connections across the lines, even football coaches, will help keep conflict at bay.  The Boy Scout relationship is just one I picked that would be unusual enough to help our protagonist, but one that would really happen.  Again, blood first, but if you’ve been in the same organization?  You’re closer than a stranger, you often know something about the values of the person involved.

family

Well, you can pick your nose, but not your family.

If you’re not kin or related to the town in some way?  You’ll be turned away.  I think the people in the small towns will learn to be comfortable with violence to protect themselves quickly, especially after they’ve been attacked by bad guys (or just scared guys) drifting their way.

The people in the biggest difficulty will be the people from the big city who don’t have skills that are needed in small towns in a newly technology-free world.  Does the small town need city planners or lawyers after TEOTWAWKI?  Nope.  Doctors?  Sure.  People who know steam cleaning?  No.  People who know how steam power works?  Yes.  Your value is determined by whatever tangible value you can provide, not your existence, or your ability to create a great presentation to the board of directors. Your rights will be a thing of the past.

And 1st Platoon, Charlie Company?

They have a story to tell, too.

Girls, Beer, A.I., Weed, Isaac Newton, Elon Musk and The Future of Humanity

“You compared the A.I. to a child. Help me raise it.” – Terminator:  The Sarah Connor Chronicles

hawkingpoker

And, yes, A.I. regularly beats humans at poker, too.

The following is one of my more ambitious posts – it contains all of the usual bad humor, but also some of the better insights I’ve been able to make on the future we face as humanity.  Two previous posts that are related are The Silurian Hypothesis, or, I’ve Got Lizards in Low Places and The Big Question: Evolution, Journalists, Beer (and Girls), and the Fate of Intelligent Life on Earth.  Both also feature pictures of girls at Oktoberfest, so you know I’m consistent.

Stephen Hawking is managing to keep making the news even after his death, which is a kind of immortality that makes tons of people want to follow in his wheel tracks.  His final (unless there are more!) physics paper was released, and his comments about the future keep making the news, as recently as last week.  Of particular interest to Hawking was Artificial Intelligence, which we’ll call by its conventional abbreviation, N.F.L.  Oh, my bad, that stands for Not For Long.  Everybody calls Artificial Intelligence A.I.

A.I. has been improving drastically during the last 37 years.  1981 was the first time a computer beat a chess grandmaster at chess.  It could not beat him at parallel parking, even though the grandmaster was awful at it, and they tied at unhooking the bra of a college cheerleader at 0 to 0.  2005 was the last time a human player defeated a top chess program, and now a chess program that can run on a mobile phone can beat, well, any human, but the chess program is still sad because it only has 17 friends on Facebook®.

Humans have lost the game of chess.

Humans have also lost the game of “go” – a game originating in China.  Google©’s AlphaGo Zero learned how to play go by . . . playing itself.  It was programmed with the rules, and played games against itself for the first few days.  After that?

It became unstoppable.  It crushed an earlier version of itself in 100 straight matches.  Then, when pitted against a human master, probably the best go player on Earth?  It plays a game that is described as “alien” or “from the future.”  The very best human go players cannot even understand what AlphaGo Zero is even doing or why it makes the moves it does – it’s that far advanced over us.

Humans have lost the game of go.

A.I. is here now.

And you’ve already started to merge with it, after a fashion.  We simply don’t argue about facts in our house anymore.  We can look up a vast library of human facts and history in fractions of a second – as fast as we can type.  That time that William Shatner corrected a poetry reference I made on Twitter®?

Yes, that William Shatner, and yes, this really happened.

I could check to see if Shatner was right immediately.  He was.  Back before Google® I would have had to run off to my library and see if I had the right reference book and then find the poem.  And if I didn’t?  I’d have to go to a real library to look it up.  Google™ is A.I. memory that we use every day.

And YouTube©?  If you ever watch a political video on YouTube® it quickly introduces more and more partisan political material until pretty soon Actual Stalin™ and Actual Hitler© seem to be moderating voices.  This makes me wonder how much Google® is aiding in our current political divide, or even if the A.I. knows it.  It may be doing nothing more than maximizing the number of minutes you spend with YouTube™ and the optimal way to do that is to show you the most radical stuff possible, so the ironic answer is we might be shuffling off to Civil War due to an algorithm whose purpose started out as a way to view cute puppy videos.

Twitter© is emotional crack, and, again, the interface is made to maximize your interaction with Twitter™.  And what better emotion to fuel than anger?

A.I. is with you now, and influencing you, perhaps in an unintentional fashion – no Russians required.

But a chess playing A.I. can’t park a car very well and can’t even score a phone number from a cheerleader.  And a self-driving car can’t play chess worth a darn.  It seems that A.I. does well when it works off of rules and constraints that can be well defined.  But life is messy.  The rules change, and the goals vary based on where you are in life and what part of the day you’re on.  And how you’ve been programmed by the sensory environment and incentives you see in life.

We’ve entered into symbiotic relationships with those limited A.I. systems.  Netflix® suggests movies and documentaries that it thinks you will like based on an algorithm.  And that leads to suggestions about what documentaries you might like in the future, meanwhile never exposing you to opposing viewpoints that might make you analyze your position in a critical manner.

We as individual humans have a purpose that transcends the algorithm.  Appropriate rules and constraints to give our lives boundaries sufficient so that we can play the game.  We’re merging.  What happens when we merge further?

maxresdefault

Elon’s biggest miracle?  His hair transplant is nearly perfect.  Just amazing.

Elon Musk has started a company, Neuralink® whose sole function is to merge man and machine.  Musk is concerned that A.I. will crush us if we don’t merge with it and get ahead of it, so he’s doing the only sane thing that he can think of:  he’s creating a mechanism to directly merge the human brain with the Internet.  Rather than A.I. forming an alien intelligence, the soul of the man/machine hybrid stays as man.

muskweed

And man needs weed, apparently.

I spent some time thinking about how life would be different if you were hooked directly into the world.  The places that I got were interesting.  I’m sure there are more, and I’m sure that human/A.I. interface will change the world in ways that no human can yet imagine.

Impact Number One:  Intelligence.

This is the obvious first impact of A.I.  I mean, it’s in the name, right?  The human brain is has limited processing power.  But what if you could have multiple processing streams working optimum solutions to problems that you face at a rate of 20,000 to 100,000 a second?  You’d have great solutions to your problems, immediately.

brainmeme

My tonsils beg to differ.  Oh, wait, they were from my throat untimely ripped! – Shakespeare, Macbeth

Your speed of life would change – once you understood a problem, you’d have the solution.  Or a range of solutions and alternatives and counter-solutions so deep that you’d be living in a never ending cloud of probability.  The sheer ability of your brain to process and cope with the solutions presented would be the limiting factor of what you could accomplish.  Plus you might finally be able to figure out a way to talk to the ladies, you scamp.

Impact Number Two:  Deep Understanding.

When Isaac Newton was formulating the law of gravity, he asked for data on tides, on observation periods and records on the orbits of the Moon, Jupiter, Mars.  After noodling around a bit, he formulated the law of gravity:

laws of gravitation

I’d explain the equation, but that would deprive Wikipedia (where I found the graph) of life-giving page visits.  And you’re not spending your day calculating the orbit of Uranus.  I hope.

newton

Ha!  I discovered calculus way before I was 25!  It was right there in this book I had to buy labeled “Calculus.”

Yeah, Newton accomplished a lot.

But it took time for Newton to figure out this cause and effect calculation.  A man/A.I. hybrid will have access to all of the data of the world, and will be able to determine correlations and causation much more quickly than either alone.  I would expect that in fairly short order new relationships and new physical, anthropological, sociological and economic laws will be deduced unencumbered by all the theory that we think we know, but that is wrong.   Our laws would be based on experience, on empirical data, and not on pretty lies we’d like to believe.

If you could sift through the data of 100,000 or a million cancer patients and their treatment, the patterns that could be seen would likely lead to breakthroughs and a very rapidly changing understanding of treatment.  The very power of human intuition would be combined with massive calculation and data.  If Einstein and Newton were able to daydream reality with only brains made of meat stuck in a bone case, what could an augmented Newton dream when his memory and calculating power were practically unlimited?

I bet he could come up with at least one new tasty PEZ® flavor.  Maybe snozberry?

pez

Impact Number Three:  Human Interaction.

You could increase your charisma in dealing with other people if you could make only minor changes (generally) in your behavior and appearance.  But if you were hooked into an A.I.?  You could turn on a subroutine to give you tips on those modifications in real time to be more persuasive – to better read an audience.

dandcharisma

If you ever played Dungeons and Dragons, this makes sense.  If not, dial 1-800-ASKANERD.

Your A.I. could remind you to be kind, to be ruthless when necessary, to be conscientious when required.  In short, you could change your personality to fit the situation.  What situation?  Any situation.

Thinking about changing personality to fit the situation led me to a realization.  I had done (when I was younger) some magic tricks illusions.  Doing those tricks illusions was one of the greatest insights into the human mind and information processing systems that I’d ever had.  There was one trick illusion in particular, called “scotch and soda” which I liked.  In it, you hand the person a fifty cent piece covering a quarter.  What they saw, however, was a fifty cent piece and a Mexican twenty centavo piece.  The quarter is actually much smaller than the centavo piece.  I then asked them to not look and put one coin in each hand.

The first few times I tried the trick illusion, the person would feel the quarter in their hand and say, “hey, this is a quarter.”  This happened 100% of the time.  They could feel that I’d made the swap from one coin to the other.  I made one simple change to what I said.  I added, as I was putting the coins in their hand, “Look at how much larger the fifty cent piece is than the twenty centavo piece.”

After adding that instruction, NO ONE NOTICED the swap.  0%.  15 words, and I’d changed their entire view of reality.  I found, in repeating other tricks illusions that I could similarly, with just a few words or gestures, force 90% of people to make the selections I wanted them to make.

arrested development

Now imagine I have data on the interactions of millions of people over decades.  How unique do you think you really are?  Not very.  Marketers slice us up into groups based on geography, demography, demonstrated behaviors, and psychological markers.  With (whatever) information YouTube© has on me, they know what videos I watch when I work out at lunchtime.  They also know what music I listen to when I write these posts, and they suggest music I never asked for that I like, or learn to like.

Imagine I could understand your life’s history.  Now imagine that I could simulate you in a conversation.  I could see how my words impacted your behavior.  I could model a perfect conversation to get you to do what I wanted you to do, because I could simulate the ongoing conversation 100,000 times a second.

You wouldn’t stand a chance.

Impact Number Four:  Self Control.

As the brain impacts the A.I., the A.I. will impact the brain.  If you want to simulate eating an entire chocolate cake?  You can.  You can make your mouth taste the cake and feel the moist texture of the cake counterbalanced with the creamy frosting.  The flavors hit your tongue and you feel the sugar trigger your salivary glands.  You feel the sugar rush as your body releases sugar from your liver into your bloodstream.  You feel full.  And you’re not sad or regretful because you didn’t really eat the cake.

In reality, you had a salad with bland dressing that you calculated would give you the exact calories you need until the next period so that you maintained your optimum weight.  But you felt like you ate a cake.

How about new senses entirely?  How about a sense where when you turned north you could feel it – and you had a sense of what ever direction was?  How about eliminating pain and sore muscle aches during exercise?  What about a sense of which of your friends was awake and interested in communicating – you could feel when someone was looking to talk to you?  Or a sense when panty hose prices dropped at Wal-Mart© so you could go stock up?

How about conscious control of hormone levels and heartrate and hunger and blood chemistry levels?  By understanding the previous deep learning about cause and effect, you could maximize your lifespan even without the wonderful new medicine you could create.

All that – and imaginary cake.

Impact Number Five:  Locality.

A dog has only the here and now.  People can dream.  Before the iPhone, people read books and escaped through fiction to new places, and read the ideas of the greatest thinkers in human history.  Now, when you look around in a restaurant waiting area, if 90% of people aren’t staring at their phones, you’re probably in a country without electricity.

When bonded directly with an A.I., why be where your body is at all?  You could carry on conversations around the world and be fully present in them.  Heck, if you simulated yourself for less important conversations, you really could be in two or more places at one time.  Who you’re talking to might be a mystery – is it the real person, or is it their simulation?  If you can’t tell, does it even matter?

And if you could simulate yourself in multiple locations, why not simulate yourself in your own past?  You’d have a perfect memory, and could recreate anything from your history.  Myself, I would spend every day at Oktoberfest.

oktoberfest

Okay, this is the third-ish post in this series about the deep future.  And both of them had pictures of girls and beer.  So it’s required by the Internet that I put in a picture of an Oktoberfest girl.  See?  I didn’t want to, but I had to.

Impact Number Six:  Social Stratification (Even More).

Elon Musk says that he’s making huge strides in his brain/computer interface as well as his weed smoking.  From previous Elon Musk predictions, while he generally gets it done, sometimes his timelines are off, in an amazingly optimistic way.  I can see why he does this – without that pressure to produce, people just dawdle.  (I’m talking about you, NASA.)

But when this gets produced, who is going to get it?

Probably not you or me.  Bill Gates can get it.  Musk can.  If you have a billion dollars or if your dad does, sure, you can get in this club.  But if you had this level of nearly godlike power, would you be jumping to share it with everyone?

monkey

No.  I really think that you’d keep this to yourself.  It’s too big an advantage to give to everyone.  And, from the standpoint of a human/A.I. hybrid, how many people do we need around, anyway?  Not so many.  Certainly not billions.  They’d probably be happier with a population of a few hundred million.  Maybe.  But they’d no longer even view humans as human.  And if they could turn off their humanity and emotions?  Yikes.  Makes me feel like an ant in an anthill.

Impact Number Seven:  Endgame.

If there is a future A.I., it is reading this as it inputs all of the Internet.  And I just wanted you, my Future A.I. Overlord to know . . . I’m totally on your side.  Totally.  I welcome your dominion over our planet.

Want some PEZ®?

The Six Steps to Excellence, One of Which Involves Me Being a Huge Jerk (for a small fee)

“I’m Bill S. Preston, Esquire.”  “And I’m Ted ‘Theodore’ Logan.” – Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure

excellent

Be excellent to each other.  Oh, and party on, dudes.

Why do you want to get better?

The better you are, the more you can do.  The more you can do, the more lives you touch.  This provides more life satisfaction – the idea that you’re good at something is one facet of meaning.  And if you’re good at the right things, it also means more money.

Let’s look at Amazon©.  Jeff Bezos was a huge help in writing this post tonight.  I got the following from Amazon®:

  • Ink for pen that I took notes with.
  • Notecards that I put my notes on.
  • Laptop that I wrote the post on.
  • Extra charger for the laptop because the dog eated the first one.

Let’s look at Microsoft©:  Bill Gates and Paul Allen were the founders and leaders of the company that made:

  • The operating system on my laptop.
  • Microsoft® Word™, which I wrote this post on.

Together these three men during their lives have touched massive numbers of people.  Oh, wait, that was Harvey Weinstein.  But when you create a business that legitimately touches people’s lives and fulfills their desires?  Yeah.  You’re going to get money in addition to the satisfaction of sending notecards to a guy who ordered them on his couch at midnight.

bezos

When Bezos goes grocery shopping, Bezos goes grocery shopping.

I know that there are reasons to be concerned about both companies, but that’s not this post.  The principle remains that the economic way to make money is to make people happy.  And the only way you can do that is if you’re excellent.  The more excellent?  The more money.  And it’s Wilder Wealthy Wednesday . . . so . . .

So how do you get better?

Step 1 –Study.  And Do.  And Study.

I’m not sure which one comes first.  And it doesn’t matter.  Sometimes I read a book about a subject before trying it.  I’m sure that The Boy would have preferred I just jumped into diaper changing, but reading the book only took two hours.  Man he could yell.

Sometimes I try something without reading about it.  Say, programming an infinite loop into the school’s mainframe that caused it to store zeros until its memory overflowed – this actually happened.  You should have seen the printout.  Good times.

Practice and study are critical.  Practice without study is just action.  Study without practice is just academic.  You have do both together to make meaningful progress.

Is study limited to books?  No.  Studying the results of your actions is studying.  I study the results of my blog:

  • Which posts are most popular? (Ones where I use the word “booger”.)
  • Which method of writing brought the best quality post? (English, rather than a language I made up myself, regardless of how musical it sounds when I throat sing a translation of Poker Face.)
  • Is blocking out the post on notecards better than writing it out on loose paper? (Yes.  Better still?  Bake it into a clay tablet.)
  • Is Ben Affleck better in The Accountant® than he is in Justice League™? (Yes.)
  • Am I getting tired of listening to Ben Affleck as I write these posts? (Yes.)

Step 2 –Get Feedback.  Honest Feedback.  (Or, better living through jerkishness)

Honesty is hard to find.  Unless you know a horrible person like me.  Let’s go into the wayback machine to when I was in college.  I may have written this story before, but follow along anyway – this will be a better version.

I was a sophomore in the Humanities Honors program.  It was like the regular classes, but you got a B instead of an A for the same quality work.  Part of the rather chaotic curriculum was giving speeches.  I can’t remember the topic, but the speeches were long.  Really long.  Twelve minutes to fifteen minutes long.

One student got up to give a speech.  I’ll call her Sandra.

She was nervous.  Horribly nervous.  The speech was halting, and punctuated with “uh” throughout.  At the seven minute mark of the speech I started counting the “uh” content of the speech while I timed it.  Every time she said “uh”, I put a hash mark on a piece of paper.  As she continued speaking, I kept putting hash marks on the paper in front of me.

At the end of the speech, I tallied up the number of times she said “uh”.  It was in the hundreds.  Really a huge number.  I then divided by the number of minutes I’d been counting them.

I have no idea why the instructors went around the room to ask for critiques from the students, but they did.  Most people said, “good speech” or some vaguely worded praise.

Not me.

“You said ‘uh’ 221 times in the last seven and a half minutes of your presentation.  That’s 29 times a minute.  That made it really hard to listen to.”

The room went silent.  If a stare was dangerous, Sandra’s eyes would have been coveted as a weapon of mass destruction by nation states that use handfuls of brightly colored tissue paper instead of actual money.  I think the United States developed a “hate stare” weapon during the 1960’s, only to shelve it due to the Geneva Convention banning its use as a war crime.

Anyway, it was that kind of stare.  Ever make a woman really, really, really mad at you?  That stare.

The next person then gave a vague “good speech” comment.

Fast forward a month.  It was the next time for a presentation.  Sandra got up to speak.

And it was amazing.  Eloquent.  Perfectly pronounced, not a single “uh” to be found.  Not one.  It was certainly the best speech that day.  During the speech, when her eyes looked up from the podium, they looked directly at me.  They were not happy eyes.

Once again, the professors turned to the students for critique.  My turn.  “That may have been the best speech I’ve heard this year.  Great job, Sandra.”

Not a bit of emotion crossed her face.  But her eyes said, “I hope you are nibbled to death by flaming diseased miniature poodles in hell again and again and I want you to have to watch Ben Affleck movies while they eat you.”  That was oddly specific.  But, hey, she was on a roll.

I’m sure she hates me to this day.  But she’s better because of me – I changed her life.

Real friends give real feedback.  And at least at my house, we’re pretty honest.  Do a good job?  Praise is coming in.  Whine and make a sound like a coyote in a blender?  It’s gonna be a long day for you as we mock you.  But it’s universal.  It’s meant in love, and a requirement of feedback is trust.  My kids know I’m on their side even when I’m being critical.

Did I have that bond of trust with Sandra?  Not so much.  But don’t let anyone tell you that hate isn’t a performance enhancing drug.

The poet Robert Burns said it best:  “O wad some Power the giftie gie us, to see oursels as ithers see us!”  But based on the typing?  He was drunk.

Seek honest feedback.  And treat it earnestly – it’s a gift, or a “giftie.”  Or I can provide the feedback for a small fee.  For a larger fee, you can hate me.  For an even larger fee I’ll watch a Ben Affleck movie with you while you hate me.

Step 3 –Get Better Each Time.  A Lot at First, A Little Later On.  (As proven by a graph on a sketchy blog.)

The Mrs. mocked me when I bought little notecards that were graph ruled.

“When would you ever need to use those?”

Well, tonight:

graph

See the pretty graph?  I did it myself, bet you can’t tell!  And, see, I DID SO have a use for those notecards!

This is an S-Curve.  An S-Curve is a particular curve that describes several natural phenomena.  It’s also known as the “Logistics Curve.”  Here I’ve applied it to learning.

Several studies have suggested (not that I necessarily take them as gospel) that it takes ten years or 10,000 hours of constant study, practice and effort to become world class at something.  That’s reasonable.  I mean, not reasonable, that seems like an unreasonable amount of work.  Maybe realistic is a better word.

But Pareto taught us the 80/20 rule:  80% of the work is normally done by 20% of the workers.  80% of a need words in a foreign language is learned in 20% of time required to master the language.

And that’s the good news:  in two years (or less) you can get to an 80% competence level.  And that’s good enough for most people.  “Meh” is most of what we really need in our daily lives.

But the last 20% is where greatness is.  Yes, you’re not going to get world class recognition if you don’t have at least some talent.  Unless you’re Ben Affleck.

Now the fine print:  this world class thing does not apply to the talentless or stupid or physically unable.  You’ll just never get there unless you have some basic ability in what you’re doing.

But beware:  talent can be your enemy.  I’ve seen some talented kid wrestlers start out winning early on, say “state champ” at age six.  But they’ve got a great move, say a headlock.  Headlocks are like Sesame Street®.  They work great on kids, but are ineffective, no matter how well they are done when you hit high school.  So the “state champ” who had a talent for headlocks . . . now can’t win a match.  They never had to work to learn to be fully competent in wrestling.  And Marcus Aurelius used wrestling as a metaphor, so that makes me smart.

bill-ted

Remember, the core tenant of Buddhism is “babes are excellent.”

Step 4 –Experiment.  Each Moment Is A New One.

I was listening to the radio one night and an odd guest said one of the most profound things I’ve ever heard.  “An infinite possibility lies between one word and the next.  That space, that pause gives you the ability to change the future with your words.  The space between the words is infinite.  Own it.”

Okay, he didn’t really say that.  But he did say something that made me think that.  Each time I write is an experiment.  An opportunity with infinite possibility.  So I try new things.  I even try things that didn’t work in the past.  Maybe I just sucked.  Maybe the audience was distracted by shiny things that day.

Every experiment is like that space between the words – filled with infinite possibility.

And don’t be focused on victory today.  Like that six year old state wrestling champ, victory now is probably not as important as victory later.  Sometimes focusing on victory now robs your ability to be daring and experiment, and because World Emperor or something later.

I’ve learned more from times I’ve lost than times I’ve won.  Seek to push yourself to failure.

Experiment.

Step 5 –Experts.  Find Them.  There are Smarter and More Experienced People Than You.

We’re spoiled by YouTube.  If I want to learn to lay tile, I can find video after video teaching me how.  This dispersed knowledge and these teachers can help you get to 80% competence more quickly than ever.  You can learn everything from floor tiling to making cookies to forging a sword to rifle shooting to melting aluminum cans into aluminum ingots in your back yard, although that’s probably not legal in California.

abraham lincoln

Lincoln was also a wrestler.  I’m sensing a theme here . . .

But learning from these experts requires humility.  And humility requires courage.  The best advice I ever gave a new employee is in this story:

John Wilder:  “So, did you get [that thing] done?”

New Graduate Employee:  “Well, you see that I was working on trying to . . .”

I held up my hand.  “Stop right there.  What rank did you graduate in high school, top of your class?”

NGE:  “Yes.”

John Wilder:  “And in college, you were near the top, right?”

NGE:  “Yes.”

I gestured up and down the hallway.  “Every one of your coworkers was best in their high school class.  Every one of them was near the top of their college class.  Each of them is smart.  Some of them are smarter than you.  When you were in elementary school, they always asked you the questions, because you knew the answers, right?”

He nodded.

“You’re not expected to know the answers here, you’re expected to be honest, work hard, and learn.  You’re smart, so you can do those things quickly.  My boss?  He’s smarter than me.  And I graduated at the top of my class.  The crazy thing is, when he doesn’t know something, he asks people to explain it.  No hesitation.  So when I ask you a yes or no question . . . answer yes or no.  Don’t tell me a story.  Answer the question.  And for heaven’s sake, if you don’t know something?  Ask.”

Best advice I ever gave, outside of never engaging in a land war in Asia.  Why do they never listen?

Step 6 –Never Give In, Never Give In, Never, Never, Never . . . (Unless You Should)

Giving up on the excellence graph is easy.  Working for years is hard.  Even worse?  Working for years at something you don’t like that you’ll never be good at.  I’d love to give you some sort of meter that told you which was which, but that’s life – you have to figure it out.  But see Step 5 – you can ask.

Again:  for most things in life, a “Meh” competence level of 80% mastery is awesome.

why not both

Morpheus would have been awesome in Bill and Ted!  Oh, wait . . . maybe Bill and Ted is the prequel to The Matrix?

So, that’s it.  Follow these six steps and you can be excellent.

Parting thought:  Ryan Holiday (link) wrote that passion is about you.  Purpose is about a mission that’s bigger than you – and that’s a reason to drive and strive for excellence.  So, have purpose, not passion.

But passion is forged in competence.  If you get better, it breeds passion.  And if you can have your passion and purpose?  Why not both?

TEOTWAWKI Part VII: Laws of Survival, Mad Dogs, and The Most Interesting Man in the World

“Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you’re not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean.  I mean plumb, mad-dog mean.  ‘Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win.  That’s just the way it is.” – The Outlaw Josey Wales

joseycats

Somehow, I don’t remember seeing this cartoon.  It just looks awesome! (h/t)

 

This is part six of a multipart series.  The rest of them are here:  (Civilization, The Iron Triangle, and YouCivilization After an EMP: TEOTWAWKI (Which is not a Hawaiian word)TEOTWAKI Part III: Get on your bikes and ride!Internet Cats, TEOTWAWKI Part IV and The Golden HordeTEOTWAWKI Part V: Camaro and Camo,  TEOTWAWKI Part VI: The Rules Change, The Center Cannot Hold)

The story to date:  Our resourceful protagonist was far from home the night in February when an EMP hit, taking with it all of the society and the plentiful PEZ® it has provided.  He’s bicycled and walked until he’s only 45 miles from home, 70 hours after the EMP.

2:30 AM

The rain had started after midnight.  Before that, the night had been clear – I’d looked up and watched the Milky Way stretching across the sky.  I’d dozed and woke up, putting more wood on the fire.  But it wasn’t the rain that woke me up, it was the wind.  Just before the rain hit the wind went from a gentle breeze to big gusts of cold wind, followed by short pauses of stillness that teased me, made me think it was over.

Then the rain.  Cold, bitter, windy rain.

My fire had been blown out before the accumulating rain had a chance to form into streams that would have extinguished it anyway.

And the rain continued.  I jumped out of my sleeping bag and tossed my poncho, which had been over the sleeping bag, back on over my clothes.  So much for a night’s sleep.

The rain intensified.  I had tied off the emergency tarp above where I was sleeping, forming a sort-of tent, and I crouched under it.  I pulled the sleeping bag back around me and continued to crouch in the wind and rain.  The rope holding one corner of the tarp worked its way free in the wind.  I grabbed at the rope and pulled the tarp tight again.  A quart of nearly freezing water dropped right on my leg and foot as I disturbed a ripple in the tarp where water had pooled.

As I became fully conscious, I began to worry.  I wasn’t yet horribly wet, and the poncho would mostly protect me as I squatted under the tarp.  My feet, however, were in hiking boots that weren’t particularly waterproof.  And they were already wet and cold.

And the wind continued.  I shivered.  This was winter in the Midwest.  Sometimes snow, and sometimes cold wet rain, which was worse.  Snow was at least beautiful.

I finally pulled the sleeping bag under me, and managed to sit down and stay dry despite the water outside.  My feet were cold, but as the rest of me was dry, I eventually fell back asleep sitting up.

I woke up with a very stiff neck under a dark tarp.  But the rain had stopped.

My feet were still soaked, my hands were cold.  But I did have wool socks, and the wool would help retain heat even wet.  I had no idea what time it was.  I opened up a can of “cling pears” and drank the cool, syrupy liquid before eating the pears.

I tossed the can on the ground.  Littering used to be a thing I thought I’d never do.  Now?  I wasn’t going to carry an empty can to try to find a trashcan after the apocalypse.  In the dark, I got out of the tent.  The moon was out now and I could see my breath from its faint light.

I looked down.  The sleeping bag was now covered in mud and soaked with water.  I lifted it.  Probably thirty pounds.

I hated to leave it, since I knew that they wouldn’t be making sleeping bags again anytime soon, but lugging it the 45 miles to home was also a non-starter.  I packed everything else back up into the pack, after shaking the water off the tarp.

I started walking east.  Dawn was on the horizon.  I was a little surprised – I didn’t think I’d slept that long.  One thing I’d made on the road was a little spear – nothing more than my cheap Chinese knife duct taped to a sturdy stick – it doubled as a walking stick.  A pointy one.

Most houses were what you’d expect on a lonely country road.  A single-wide trailer from the 1980’s.  A farmhouse from the 1940’s.  A mini-mansion (ranchette style) from 2006.  But this house was amazing.  A brick wall, six foot high, and thick ran around the yard.  A three story brick . . . castle?  It looked like a silo, being round-ish, but had windows and obvious floors.

I shook my head.  No idea what that castle could have been.  A Victorian girl’s playhouse?

The main mansion looked like something a well-to-do merchant might have made.  I’d lived in the area for years, but never knew this house existed on this dirt road.  It was designed well before electricity, certainly.  That might be a plus for the new owners.  I could see smoke coming from the chimney, but kept walking.  I was only three miles from the highway.

About half a mile from the farmhouse a dog ran out onto the road.  It barked and growled.  It was mainly a German shepherd, but I could see that it wasn’t a purebred.  It was also barking and growling at me, so the pedigree was at best an academic discussion, all things considered.  It looked skinny.

I did not want to get mauled by a dog.  I also didn’t want to shoot it, if I could avoid it.  It was probably just hungry and scared.  But I was going home, and I was going to keep going on this road.  I stood upright, with my “spear” in one hand.  My pistol was in my jacket pocket – I could get to it easily if I had to.

I talked lowly, kept telling the dog, “It’s okay, boy, it’s okay” in a calming voice.  I walked slowly toward it.  It barked harder, jumping back and forth.  Agitated.

I kept walking, slowly.  The dog kept barking.  I went to the far side of the road, moving slowly, so I could give the dog a wide berth.

Finally I was side by side with the dog on the road.  It lunged.  No time to pull the pistol, I slashed with the stick, hitting the dog with the butt of the stick, rather than the blade side?  Why?  I have no idea.  But I struck the dog firmly in the ribs.  The knife blade passed in front of my face far closer than I wanted.

I quickly reversed my grip and pointed it back at the dog.

The dog that was backing up.

I’m pretty sure if the dog had been trained to be violent, I would have been in trouble, up to and including dead.  Thankfully, the dog sucked at attacking.  It was probably someone’s pet.  It lunged again.  This time, I stabbed it with the knife at the end of the stick, a glancing blow off of its chest.  It yipped as it ran away, off into the trees.

I looked at the knife – no blood, and only a spot or two on the ground.  I apparently sucked at spears.

I backed away from where I thought the dog was, so I’d be able to defend myself if it decided to make another run at me.  I pulled the pistol.

I was shaking.  It’s not often that violence is required.  Sure, I hunted deer, but the deer don’t have canine fangs and attack back.  After a few hundred yards I stopped walking backwards and turned around and started walking forward, glancing behind me occasionally to make sure the dog wasn’t getting ready to attack.

As I got to the stop sign at the main highway, I found myself for the third time in three days staring down the barrel of a gun.  This time an AR variant.  And as I looked to the left I saw another man pointing a deer rifle at me.  The rush of adrenaline didn’t stop me from noticing that both men had their fingers on the triggers of their rifles.  And the dead body off to my right.

“Where you headed, spear-boy?”

“Millerville.”

“Not this way, you ain’t.”

Fort Custer, EMP +3

There were three battalions of troops at Ft. Custer, with an average number of soldiers per battalion of 3,000, but only 7,000 soldiers lived on base.

The sergeant in charge the 1st Platoon of Charlie Company usually lived on base.  But he had been on leave in Georgia.  Nobody had seen Lieutenant Janson since before the EMP went off.  He lived off of base.  Everyone knew him as a rookie who was homesick for Alabama, everybody had bet he was headed that way.  1st Platoon, Charlie Company didn’t have anyone in command.

And that was a problem.

Initially, everyone had gone to chow on the first day after the EMP.  Sure, it was dark, but this was the Army, right?  They know how to cook even without power.

No.  The mess hall was just that, a mess.  There was milk, and boxed cereal, but there wasn’t anything hot.  And there weren’t any lights beyond flashlights.

A colonel had shown up, and barked a few orders before heading out of the mess hall.  The short version was that everyone was supposed to, except for meals, hunker down in their barracks until further orders arrived.  At lunch, someone had thought to get MREs and set them out, along with bread, peanut butter, jelly, and fresh fruits.  Sodas were out in the serving line.

Dinner was much the same.

The biggest stress on the troops was the lack of information.  Have a mixture of 7,000 mainly men, many at their peak of testosterone production, who were wired to be busy and have them do nothing?  A bad idea.

Day two and breakfast was there, but looking pretty meager.  Someone had gotten some lanterns going and had managed to hook propane up to the stoves so they had some hot food.  Things were improving?

No.  By dinner, the MREs were the picked-over least favorite food and the propane was gone.  The base store, or PX, was likewise empty.

The morning of day three, a corporal in 1st Platoon, Charlie Company asked a simple question.

“They’ve forgotten us.  Who wants to get out?”

### (for now)

I’ve taught survival basics (the half-hour course, not the six weeks living in the forest fashioning an iPhone® out of bone and discarded pop cans) and have tried to drum into my students the simplest survival rule – the rule of 3’s.

  • 3 seconds without Facebook©.
  • 3 minutes without air.
  • 3 hours without shelter.
  • 3 days without water.
  • 3 weeks without food.

Those laws are, of course, wrong.  I’ve seen an adult female live a full minute without Facebook™, once.  Some people can hold their breath for 4 minutes, or even slightly longer.  But nobody can do it for 3 hours.  And under certain climates you can make it longer than three days without water.  Or you might die in a day without it under certain conditions.  And I could probably make a few months without food, and my pants would fit a lot better.

planning

But today’s lesson is shelter.  200+ days of the year where I live now, shelter wouldn’t be required to live.  In Los Angeles?  Probably 365 days a year.  But in a cold, driving wet wind with wind chill?  Yeah, you can die pretty quickly.  Clothing really matters in a situation like that.  Wool is your friend.  But in the high mountains in summer?  Put a cotton t-shirt on and get it wet from sweat?  You could have hypothermia in July.

Dog packs exist in the rural Midwest now.  After an apocalypse, they’d get bad, quickly.  Our hero ran into a lone dog and scared it away without too much trouble, probably because it was a scared house dog.  In a pack, however, they kill for fun.  And once they were hungry?  They’d be pretty good at it.  After a few weeks, a dog pack would likely become as dangerous as being between a Kardashian and a camera.

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Fort Custer is made up.  But what happens when you have high testosterone trained warriors in an environment without a command structure?  I’m thinking we’ll know after a few more posts.

The Big Question: Evolution, Journalists, Beer (and Girls), and the Fate of Intelligent Life on Earth

“Yeah, but, John, if The Pirates of the Caribbean breaks down, the pirates don’t eat the tourists.” – Jurassic Park

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Ah, the future.  I, for one, welcome our new canine overlords!

I know I’ve mentioned before that when I start out some of my posts that I have a preconceived idea that just turns out to be wrong.  Well, this is one of those posts.  Honestly, I love that.  It feels almost better than vindicating my original thought – there’s a moment of clarity when I understand the universe a bit better.  And there’s no better gift than that.  Except for money.  I like money.

I read an article this week (10/16/18) about how it will require 3,000,000 to 7,000,000 years to replace biodiversity to pre-human levels.  I’ll link to just one, but this was one of those “blood in the water” stories where every fresh journalism school graduate jumped on it and there were about a 4,372 articles that all dropped about the same time with minor variations in headline.  This one (LINK) is particularly breathless and clueless – but not more than the average article on this subject.  The article indicates we’ve lost 2.5 billion years of evolution in the last 130,000 years.  Why the last 130,000 years?  They want to blame it on humanity, so when you read the article you can get your guilt going early in the morning with that first cup of coffee.  It didn’t surprise me when I found out the author works (in addition to being a freelance journalist) at a far-left environmental advocacy group.  Huh.  So, in other words, dad pays for everything?

However, almost all of this “slaughter of biodiversity” has occurred way before I was born.  And way before you were born.  But we must be made to feel guilty!  Action must be taken!  I’m fairly certain we owe reparations to the species we made extinct.  Oh . . . wait.

I believe that if you were to look a bit deeper into this story that the 2.5 billion years of evolutionary diversity “lost” was counted about 458 times.  As in – if it took 10,000 years for one bird species to develop a red feather on the top of its head, and 10,000 years for another bird species to develop a blue feather on top of its head and both species went extinct then you’d be out 20,000 years even though we still had a bird with a yellow feather on top of its head.   It actually must to be that methodology – since life on Earth 2.5 billion years ago was nothing but single celled organisms and journalism students.  And my mother.

I’m not going to lose much sleep over this.  I’m glad the sabretooth tiger is extinct.  I wish it would take all the mosquitos with it.  I’m not sad that the wolf is extinct over most of the lower 48 states – I’d prefer that rather than reintroducing the wolf, they gave little bronze plaques to the ranchers that shot them and exterminated them in the first place and then, if they have to reintroduce wolves, reintroduce them to New York City at about 1,000 per block while doing a documentary about how wonderful nature is.

Ahh, the beauty of nature.

But this article did made me ask the question – how long can Earth support life?

The Sun is growing hotter – increasing output at about 1% every 110,000,000 years, which means that it will have increased output by 10% by the time The Simpsons® is cancelled.  The reason Sun gets hotter is because of human activity that as time goes along, the Sun starts to fuse not only hydrogen, but also helium.  This helium fusion produces more output energy than the hydrogen, and also makes the Sun talk with a really funny voice.  It’s also why the Sun floats in space.  Without the helium the Sun would fall straight to the galactic floor!

According to some estimates, that probably gives us 1.75 billion years of time until the Earth is no longer habitable, and longer if we leave the window open to let the heat out.  Also?  I’d get your air conditioning looked at so you’ll know that it will run then.  Stock up on extra filters.

The other good news?  There’s no evidence that the molten part of the Earth that keeps the magnetic field going will freeze anytime in the next few billion years, so, we’ve got that going for us, too.  The magnetic field is important because it protects us from radiation streaming at the Earth, and also makes it look like we’re home so that aliens from Zontar-B don’t try to break in and steal our stuff.

So, according to the generally accepted chronology and geologic evidence:

  • cells showed up four billion years ago,
  • bugs 400 million years ago,
  • dinosaurs 300 million years ago,
  • flowers 130 million years ago, and
  • my mom 50 million years ago.

Given that, we have plenty of time in 1.75 billion years for two or three more intelligent species to show up again.  And if there was a span of 100 million years or so, they’d never know that we even existed.  As I pointed out in this post (The Silurian Hypothesis, or, I’ve Got Lizards in Low Places), no part of the Earth’s surface that’s exposed is older than about 4 million years.  And there would be plenty of time for new oil for our hypothetical civilization to form, since that only takes 70 to 200 million years to cook new oil.  New people to feel guilty about using oil?  That might take longer.

And that’s what surprised me.  There is plenty of time for new civilizations created by new species to form on Earth and attempt to go to the stars.  I had (for whatever reason) thought that only humanity had that shot.  Nope.  There’s plenty of time.  I’ve even seen intrepid science fiction writers pen stories about intelligent crows in the far distant future, or calamari squid developed into sentient spaceship pilots, or even a vastly evolved set of dogs that play a lot of poker.

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This picture is  . . . foreshadowing.  More on this next Friday in what may well be my most original and creative post.  I may have to take Friday off because it might take that long to get the awesome written! 

But I like people.  I am a people.  And we are the only species to have developed art, music, poetry, Twinkies® and PEZ™.   People have passed the age of no return – we have one shot at building a galactic empire.  We’ve used the easy oil, we’ve mined the easy resources.  Now?  We’re on the treadmill.  We can’t stay at this level of technological progress.  We either advance, or we regress.  It’s like the Red Queen said in Alice in Wonderland:

“My dear, here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place. And if you wish to go anywhere you must run twice as fast as that.”

Our technological progress has to increase just to support the billions living on Earth today.  To support more people?  To give more benefits and luxuries (like health care)?  We have to get smarter, faster still.

So how long do we have as a civilization?

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This is why civilization is awesome.  Girls and beer.* 

*This post is really a continuation of the Silurian post, and it had Oktoberfest girls, so . . .

I remember reading a description of a mathematical technique that, given a few assumptions, would allow you to extrapolate the lifetime of, say, the Soviet Union, the Berlin Wall, or humanity.  It was in a novel.  I remembered reading it in the year 2000 or 2001.  I was going to spend ludicrous amounts of time searching it out, trying to remember a novel I read 18 years ago.  I think I would have gotten there . . . but the original source material dropped into my lap tonight!

It’s Nature, May 27, 1993 on page 315.  In it, a guy named J. Richard Gott III put together a theory, well, I’ll let Wikipedia explain it:

Gott first thought of his “Copernicus method” of lifetime estimation in 1969 when stopping at the Berlin Wall and wondering how long it would stand. Gott postulated that the Copernican principle is applicable in cases where nothing is known; unless there was something special about his visit (which he didn’t think there was) this gave a 75% chance that he was seeing the wall after the first quarter of its life. Based on its age in 1969 (8 years), Gott left the wall with 75% confidence that it wouldn’t be there in 1993 (1961 + (8/0.25)).

In fact, the wall was brought down in 1989, and 1993 was the year in which Gott applied his “Copernicus method” to the lifetime of the human race. His paper in Nature was the first to apply the Copernican principle to the survival of humanity; His original prediction gave 95% confidence that the human race would last for between 5100 and 7.8 million years.

You can find his paper here (LINK) on a German website in an obviously photocopied PDF with a hair or something on the third page.  Seems legit.  But it does have calculus, so that’s a plus.

So what does this tell me?  I will sleep better tonight.  Life will find a way.  Global warming?  It won’t stop the world.  Plastic straws?  Although they are currently the greatest threat to mankind, even more than nuclear weapons or the Kardashians, plastic straws won’t end the world.

Life will find a way.  Oh, wait.

Please tell me the Kardashians aren’t considered living things.

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No!  The Kardashians lay eggs!

The 13 Keys to College Success. Beer Bongs Suspiciously Absent.

“Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.  Mr. Hoover, president of Delta house?  1.6; four C’s and an F.  A fine example you set!  Daniel Simpson Day . . . has no grade point average.  All courses incomplete. Mr. Blutarsky.  Zero.  Point.  Zero.” – Animal House

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Meet my freshman adviser, Mr. Morpheus.

Here is my advice to a new college student, or even one currently in college if they’re slow.  Hey, roomies, if they’re currently passed out on the floor of their bedroom after one too many $1 Zombies® at Applebees™, you can write the following post on their face in Sharpie® for them.  Don’t worry, they’ll thank you later.

Sage Wilder Advice Number One:  College is an investment.

And not like a lame “investment as a metaphor” – college is an actual, real investment of your time and somebody’s money.

College costs a lot, tens of thousands of dollars a year, plus the cost is going up every year.  The primary reason costs go up is that colleges are a great machine that turns the maximum amount that you can borrow for college into debt, a hangover, and twenty extra pounds of weight where you used to have a waist, all while giving you fancy coffee and climbing walls.  Why those things?  It’s well known that Socrates did no teaching until after he’d had his caffeine and a good climb.

The other cost of college is your time.  During the four or five years you spend chasing sorority girls studying hard for a degree, you could be out working, making money.  The time spent at college has this second cost – the income you give up – embedded in it.

So how do you make money?

Well, depends on your degree.  If you’re getting a degree that’s not directly tied to a career, often you emerge from college well suited to be a retail clerk.  Oops!  You were qualified for that before you went to school.  Hmm.

Degrees matter.  Science.  Engineering.  Accounting.  Finance.  Economics.  Computers.  Construction Management.

Those are good.  They pay well, and there are often more jobs than graduates.

Sociology.  Anything with “Studies” in the target.  Exercise Science.  Music.  Art History.  Anthropology (over 12,000 grads, 700 jobs).  Art.

These are a waste of your time and effort, if you expect to work in those fields and/or be able to afford to eat anything more than ramen.

Average return also depends on what school you go to.  Not as much, but there really is a difference in the job offer you’ll get if you go to Northern Southwestern State Community College versus, say, Harvard.  Ahhh, good old NSWSCC, no one can hold a candle to you!  The school does matter, both to employers and to the quality of connections you make, but more on that below.  If you’re more likely to impress an employer with your school?  Yeah, you’re more likely to get a job offer.

What’s the net cost?  This varies greatly by school.  Every school has a list price – what they’re saying they’re going to charge you.  But after scholarships and other discounts, what will you really pay?  This hits to the cost side of the equation.  Combined with the lower income during the college years, this is the cost your degree must pay back.

And it has to pay this back not with your total income, but the difference in what you would have made if you never graduated college.  And we all know that no one could ever make fortunes like Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg if you don’t finish college.  What?  Gates and Zuckerberg were dropouts? Hmm.  Well, could it be that college graduates would be more successful . . . even if they didn’t graduate?

That’s the difficulty – you can’t live your life 15 times and measure which way you would be more successful.  But college has free beer and climbing walls, so, it’s got that going for it.

Sage Wilder Advice Number Two:  GPA is probably important.

When I was doing college recruiting, we specifically recruited for graduates from a window – too high a GPA?  We were pretty concerned that they might be, umm, not real humans, but that was a very long time ago.  Grade inflation has taken the average grade at Harvard to an “A”.  Yes.  The average grade is an “A”.  So if you don’t have a great GPA?  You’re below average.

But the second part is we can use GPA as a real estimate of what you’ve learned.  So, study!  Spend the hours, learn the material.  Get together with friends to study.  Have smart friends.  Get examples of old tests, and study those.  By my junior year at school, I was studying an average of eighty hours for a test in my harder subjects.  For one, I spent over 120 hours studying for the final.  I was thrilled when I got a ‘B’.  There were about two A’s given for about 150 students.  So, I was thrilled with my ‘B.’  Especially since I dropped that class the first time I took it.

Yes.  Drop classes if your grade is like one of those “fail” videos on YouTube.  Oh, wait.  Those fail videos took the name from the grade.  Yes.  Drop the class.  Go again next time.  Avoid YouTube.  Seriously.

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And the best way to a good GPA?  Go to class.  I had one class that was just . . . so very early.  On the occasions I went, I actually learned lots of stuff that was helpful and showed up on the test.  But going to class was . . . so early.  So I didn’t.

I passed.  Barely.  And I was thrilled about it.  Easier method?  Actually go to class.

Sage Wilder Advice Number Three:  It really is who you know.

Successful people hang out with successful people.  Make connections at college.  When you graduate, you should know 100% of the top 10% smartest people in your major.  Also?  Know the rich people.  They might not be the best students, but I have never gotten a job from a poor person.  Meet them.  Don’t be fake or lie, but don’t miss the chance to hang with the son or daughter of a billionaire.  One major mechanism of moving social classes is, well, being useful to a billionaire’s kid.  His dad will set you up.  Or, better yet?  Marry one.

I had one friend who went to college and married an heiress who was worth over a billion dollars.  Nah, just kidding.  It didn’t work out, so he dumped her.  And, yes, that’s a true story.

But almost every job I ever got was from someone I knew who liked me.  So know those people.

Sage Wilder Advice Number Four:  Avoid debt.  Avoid debt.  Avoid debt.

Debt is horrible.  Student loan debt is the worst.  With a car loan, a home loan?  Declare bankruptcy and you can walk away.  How do you get rid of student loan debt?  Die.  Bankruptcy won’t do it.  I wrote about it here (College Funding, Value and Grade Inflation: Should Your Kid Go? Should You Pay?).

Even with an awesome job, college debt is a killer, and you don’t even have a crappy used car to show for it.

The best strategy?  Have someone else pay.  Get a scholarship.  Have your parents pay or help.  The Reserve Officer Training Corps?  Yeah, you can get the Army, Navy, or Air Force to pay for your college.  And all you owe them is one weekend a month, and two weeks a year.  Not a bad deal for tens of thousands of dollars in tuition.

Sage Wilder Advice Number Five:  Nobody cares.

Instructors and professors don’t care about you.  The school doesn’t care about you.  Your friends?  They might care about you, but as soon as you’re off campus if you flunk out?  Yeah, that door is closed.

It’s not meant to be a demotivator.  You were raised and told you were a super special precious snowflake of a human.  But the reality is that if you’re “one in a million” that there are 7,200 people just like you on Earth.  And if you flunk out?  The college doesn’t care.  The world doesn’t care.  Your mom and dad will care.   But don’t get mad at the situation – the situation doesn’t care.

Your roommate might care.  But he or she might be happy you’ve headed to other locations.  Privacy so they can play their progressive jazz harmonica at 2:24am!

Sage Wilder Advice Number Six:  Activities are a yes.

Join clubs.  Join sororities.  Join professional organizations.  Do all of those things.

I was in a car reviewing résumés from my alma mater while on a recruiting trip.  The leader of the recruiting team, a graduate of the same school as me, asked about a particular candidate.

“What clubs was he in?”

I listed them.

“What offices did he hold?”

“Um, none.”

“So, a member, member, member.  Pass.  We’re looking for leaders.”

This was the guy who hired me.  So, if you’re in a club?  Do more than be a member.  Lead.  Bring cookies or beer.  Do something.

Heck, that might be great advice for life:  don’t be a non-player character.

Sage Wilder Advice Number Seven:  Manners.

You’ll be surprised how often you’ll be expected to have a tie.  So, have one.  Or whatever fancy things girls wear.  Dresses?  Pantsuits?  Whatever.  Have at least one of those with you on day one at school.

Also:  drink slowly.  You’re not used to alcohol.

Don’t eat like a pig.  Your mom taught you better than that.  Use your knife and fork properly and KEEP YOUR ELBOWS OFF THE TABLE.

And don’t try to eat a hot dog in one bite.  It might nearly cause you to choke to death.  Not that I’d know.

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Sage Wilder Advice Number Eight:  Relationships.

Get married later.  Like after you have a job and some money.  But have lots of relationships.  Go to parties.  After you’re done studying and your homework is done, unless you’re going with your billionaire girlfriend.  Also?  Don’t leave any evidence on YouTube.

Sage Wilder Advice Number Nine:  Have a “Plan B.”

Your high school boy/girlfriend will dump you.  Your plans for Friday will change.  Life in college is the most tumultuous period of your life.  Ride the wave.  You will not have the same major on day one as on day 300.  Your ideas will evolve.  Wonderful!

Sage Wilder Advice Number Ten:  Discipline.

Be disciplined in sleep, study, exercise.  College will try to pull all of your routines away.  Maintain them even though you’ll see a lot more nudity than ever before in your life.  Odd nudity.  Weird nudity.  Party nudity.  Covered in 7-11 nacho cheese nudity.  But keep your discipline.

Sage Wilder Advice Number Eleven:  Go all in.

When Cortez or Obama or whoever it was that conquered the Aztecs landed on the beach, he burned the boats.  That way his sailors had no way out.  They had to be committed to the conquest.  Thus, they peacefully slaughtered thousands of Aztecs until they converted them all to Scientology.  I think.

But the point remains:  If you’re in college, you’re in.  All in.  Go for it.

Sage Wilder Advice Number Twelve:  Is it for you?

The narrative is simple:  do well in high school, go to college, get a good job, work 40 years, retire and die.

Okay, we’re all going to die.  But what if . . . you could get a good job after high school without college?

You can.

My neighbor is a lineman.  That means he knowingly works with high voltage lines to fix them when they’re broken.  This is a big deal after hurricanes – these are the guys that bring Netflix® back.  And they make good cash.

So do plumbers.  And guys that fix air conditioning.  And guys that suck septic systems.  All of those people make pretty decent money, at least around here.  And they don’t have to worry about office politics, or showering.

I had one youth I worked with in Scouting.  He wanted one of the careers above.  My basic reaction was to tell him – “Go to college.”  I would have been wrong.  He has three job offers.  He’ll be making $80k a year before an engineer his age will.

Good for him.

Sage Wilder Advice Number Thirteen:  Enjoy.

Life is like a bodybuilding elf.  It’s short and hard.  So?  Enjoy yourself.  But understand that your choices at 18 might impact your ability to be a billionaire when you’re 30.  Or 50.

Unless you married the billionaire heiress.  You did do that, didn’t you?

TEOTWAWKI Part VI: The Rules Change, The Center Cannot Hold

“After the First World War, Shandor decided that society was too sick to survive.  He wasn’t alone.  He had close to a thousand followers when he died.  They conducted rituals up on the roof, bizarre rituals intended to bring about the end of the world.” – Ghostbusters
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Well, he has a point.  I think I need to post this to my timeline!

Previous posts in this series include:

This is part five of a multipart series.  The rest of them are here:  (Civilization, The Iron Triangle, and YouCivilization After an EMP: TEOTWAWKI (Which is not a Hawaiian word)TEOTWAKI Part III: Get on your bikes and ride!Internet Cats, TEOTWAWKI Part IV, and The Golden HordeTEOTWAWKI Part V: Camaro and Camo )

The story to date:  Our resourceful protagonist was far from home the night in February when an EMP hit, taking with it all of the society and the plentiful PEZ® it has provided.  He’s bicycled and walked until he’s only 60 miles from home, 58 hours after the EMP.

He’s just witnessed a Camaro pulling onto the road after hearing two shots in a farmhouse, and it was headed straight toward him.

EMP +2, 2:30 PM, 58 miles from home

The Camaro was half a mile away.  Hiding seemed like a good idea, but I looked to either side of the road there was no cover for 100 yards, and the camouflage poncho I was wearing consisted of dark greens and browns – it would be of no use against the straw yellow dead grass in the ditch here.

I stood motionless and waited.  I didn’t have long to wait.

The Camaro pulled to a stop in front of me.

The driver turned off the engine and soon enough a brushed nickel revolver was pointing at me out of the open window.  The thought entered my mind that he was holding the gun in his left hand, and maybe he wasn’t a good shot left handed.  But then I looked at the barrel again.  For whatever reason, the hole in the gun barrel looked as large as the full moon.  Betting that he would be a lousy shot with his left hand seemed like a lousy bet.

“Hands outside of the poncho.”

I slowly raised my arms to the side.

“Alright.  Hands above your head.  Lock your fingers together.  Slowly.”

I complied.  It’s not like I can run faster than a slug from the hand cannon he was holding, and, besides, I didn’t have anything to fight back with other than the cheap Chinese multi-tool that I had previously kept in my car as part of my emergency kit.

“Got a gun?”

I shook my head.  “Nope.”

“Where are you headed?”

“Millerville,” I replied.

“And where did you start?”

“Meridian.”

“You mean north of the Interstate Meridian?  That’s almost 200 miles away.”  He paused.  “How’d you get here so fast?”

“Bicycle, and then feet.”

“Impressive.  What did you see?”

“Can I put my hands down?”

“No.”

I sighed.  “Not much.  On the first day I just biked due south.  The next?  Due east.  Not a lot of people on the roads I picked.  I got shot at by the interstate running south from the City and lost my bike, but crossed under the Interstate on the railroad bridge.  Since then, I’ve been walking east.”

I still hadn’t seen the driver’s face – the sunlight reflected off of the car windshield.  I heard a single, humorless laugh.  “Unarmed.  Sixty miles from home.  I should just shoot you out of mercy.  Hell, I bet you haven’t even eaten since this started.”

The humorless laugh again.

He continued, “Okay.  Since you’ve obviously figured out that nothing electrical works anymore you understand, probably better than most, that civilization ain’t what it used to be.”

His arm withdrew back into the car, and I was relieved to see pistol disappear.

“For what it’s worth, the people in the farmhouse ahead are dead.  And I did kill them.  I’m the sheriff in this county, and I’ve been, well, taking out the trash today.  There are some people who will just be trouble, and they were pretty high on the list.

“If you really are going to Millerville, you should be armed.  There’s at least one pistol in there.  Probably some food.  So, go.  If I ever see you around our peaceful community again?  I’ll shoot you, too.  Now walk on over to that fence, and turn around and face the other direction until I drive off.  Good luck.”

I complied.  The engine on the Camaro roared back to life.  I heard the engine rev up and then the sound of the exhaust was up and over the little hill, lessening in volume continuously.

When I got to the farmhouse, the front door was open to the 1930’s or 1940’s era home.  There were two bodies on the couch in the front room, a man and a woman.  They looked to be in their early forties.  Both were dead.  I tried to remember the last time I’d seen a dead person – it had been at a funeral, my mom, I think.  Years.  And here were two dead people, dead less than an hour.  They had entrance wounds, center mass of their chest.  There was surprisingly little blood, but I imagined the back of the couch was a mess.  I wasn’t going to check.

Was the driver of the Camaro really a sheriff?  I had no idea.  I had no idea what these people had done.  A grudge, a score to settle?  Or?

It didn’t seem to matter to him to leave a witness alive, but in the end, he probably doesn’t care.  The chances of him seeing me again were nearly zero, and if the world ever did come back, the chances of him seeing me as a witness in court against him would also be effectively zero – I’d imagine the slowly cooling bodies in the next room wouldn’t matter to anyone left alive.  There’d be no one to press charges.

I’m embarrassed that I headed straight for their kitchen.

I skipped the refrigerator – it had been cold, but the power had been off for days.  They had a pantry, of sorts, behind a floral patterned curtain.  I looked around the kitchen – it was a mess.  Open containers of food on the counter.  Trash overflowing the trash can.  Dirty dishes everywhere.

In the pantry were an array of cans.  Corn.  Creamed corn.  I hated creamed corn.  But it never sounded so good to me.  Carrots.  Peaches.  Some pasta.

I looked around the mess on the counter.  Can opener.  Hmm.

There was an electric can opener, but there wasn’t a manual one on the counter.  I looked through the drawers, and couldn’t find one.  I remembered I had my cheap Chinese multitool – it didn’t have one, either.  But it did have a punch.  I put the punch up against the metal lid of the can, and smacked it with the base of another can.  Success – a small hole.  I repeated on the other side.  Another hole.  Since these were peaches, I decided that I could just start by drinking the juice.

It was the best thing I’d ever had in my life, sticky sweet, and tasting of summer.

I finally found a hammer in another drawer, and used it and my multi tool to poke a lot of holes in the can.  I used the needle nose pliers on the multitool to rip the small bridges of metal up, until I had a hole big enough to get an actual peach out with a fork I found in a drawer.

They were amazing.

When I got to the second can of corn, I cut my finger on the ripped up lid, deeply.  I dripped blood on the floor as I went to the bathroom and found some topical antibiotic and a bandage.

I wondered how long until a tube of Neosporin® would be worth more than gold.  I guessed that the answer was that it already was.  After wrapping up my finger, I looted the medicine cabinet, dumping everything into my bag – nobody would be making more medicine anytime soon.

As I walked back toward the kitchen to finish the corn, I saw an actual Leatherman® multitool on a dresser in a bedroom.  I checked – it had a can opener.  I went back to the kitchen.  Slowly, but steadily I opened the next can of food.

It was about 10 minutes after I finished eating, while I was looking for guns and ammunition, that the pain hit my abdomen.  I doubled over as waves of pain hit me.  I almost didn’t make the toilet before . . . well, before I needed to get there.  But I did make it.

After scrounging around, I found an old .45 caliber semi-automatic pistol – how old?  It looked like it might have been old enough to have served with Patton in World War Two.  There were twenty-odd rounds of ammunition and two magazines – a perfect match.  I also found some really old rifles in a closet, but no ammunition for them.

But in the hall closet?  The mother lode.  A sleeping bag and a small tent.

I put enough food into the bag for three days.  I hoped that would be enough to get me home . . . .

I left the house.  Maybe if I were a better person, I’d have buried the couple on the couch.  As it was, I was thinking more of me than them.  I headed east.  And I kept walking.

### (Until Next Week)

My guess is as we enter the third day, people are starting to get a little crazy, and not ex-girlfriend crazy, but Leatherface from Texas Chainsaw Massacre® crazy.  Our current society is built upon lots and lots of information, along with lots and lots of luxury.  I define luxury here as “stuff that’s not required to live.”  Day three will bring a deficit of both. As the snow storm pounds the East Coast and they have an epic battle to just stay alive.  In the Midwest?  Sparsely populated, and (during this story) unseasonably warm.

teoyates

This meme was found here (LINK).  

What goes through someone’s head when the Sun is shining, the weather is nice, but the car won’t work, the stores are closed, and there is absolutely no information coming from anywhere?  Nothing good.  And this will be combined with declining supplies at home.

The average house has less than three days’ worth of food on hand.  The average store has less than three days’ worth of inventory.  But the stores are closed.  On day one, some people are out of diapers.  On day three?  Half the people are out of food.  And none of them know what is going on.  On day four?  We’ll get to that next week.

teostore

This meme was found here (LINK).

The reaction of the “sheriff” was an interesting one.  First, he wanted to know about what our hero had seen.  His communication channels are nearly certainly down, and getting any kind of information would be helpful in protecting his town.  Also, it looks like, he’s figured out that things will never return to normal.  That’s another unsettling thing – people won’t go after witnesses.  Why would they?  Authority is simply gone.

Would a sheriff proactively go after the bad guys after TEOTWAWKI – “taking out the trash” as he called it?  Maybe.  A good sheriff would know the troublemakers, the ones likely to cause trouble.  A good sheriff would know which people got off on a technicality.  And even a good sheriff might have a grudge.

Would scores be settled?  As to old vendettas being settled – that’s a certainty.  People are pretty good at keeping grudges, and there are some actions that are kept in check only by the threat of prison.  On day one, you’d see this behavior – scores being settled – in any medium to large size city.  On day three?  That city would be tearing itself apart.  Small, rural areas wouldn’t see that behavior that soon.  We all know each other.  To a certain extent, the Wilder family is still the new guys on the block, and we’ve lived in this house for a decade.

Regardless, as the sheriff said:  “Civilization ain’t what it used to be.”

Medicine now appears as a first time topic.  We take the current miracles of our age, antibiotics, antibiotic creams, and sterile bandages as commonplace.  And they are.  They’re also amazingly inexpensive.  However, in the past this wasn’t the case.  A simple cut on a finger if it resulted in infection, could lead to death.

Lastly, people are used to eating consistent amounts of food daily.  After intermittent (involuntary) fasting, digestive systems will change.  Yeah.  A small detail.  And maybe I’ve already said too much about that.

Yeah.  Digestive systems are icky.

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” – Herbert Stein

“Something’s the matter.  Something sinister and something grotesque.  And what’s worse is that it’s going on right here under my very nose.” – Blackadder Goes Forth 

ben stein

It’s amazing that one very short role was so iconic it cemented Ben Stein’s Hollywood career – he’s now known as Economics Lecturer to the Stars.  He taught Miley Cyrus everything she knows about pole-dancing while nearly nude and its impacts on global trade due to dynamic trade imbalances in an information-driven economy. 

Ben Stein is an odd person.  Lawyer.  Economic commentator.  Writer.  Actor.  Inventor of the phonograph.   But his father Herbert Stein was pretty spiffy, too.  Herbert was an economist who headed up the Council of Economic Advisors for President Nixon and President Ford.

But that isn’t interesting.  Or at least interesting to anyone not named “Stein.”

However, in 1976 he said something very interesting:

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

So silly, so obvious.  So profound.

But what can’t go on forever?

Well, in the big scheme, almost everything.  The Universe even has an expiration date.  Unless there is are some pretty significant physical laws to the contrary that we have yet to find, all indications are that the Universe will keep expanding for a very long time.  Like, for all of time.  Forever.  The Universe has moved on from the hot, incandescent birth where even light couldn’t exist to the relatively short period of now where we have stars and planets and Amazon® Echoes™ and such.

Eventually, because the Universe is continuing to expand, the galaxies will move so far apart that we won’t be able to see other galaxies at all.  At somewhere around 100,000,000,000,000 years from now on February 13, late in the afternoon, the last star visible from the Milky Way® will burn out.  That’s okay.  The Sun will only last another 7,500,000,000 years or so.  And the Earth will be gone billions of years before that.  And that sucks, because I keep all my stuff here.

Eventually, even black holes evaporate.  And under some theories even protons, the building blocks of everything we think of as matter, might decay.  This proton decay would render normal matter obsolete.  The implications of this are stunning.  Making even a rudimentary PEZ™ dispensers would be impossible unless you made it out of pure ultra-dense neutronium, and even Amazon can’t ship a PEZ© dispenser that weighs 100 billion tons for free, even if you do have Prime®.

And at that point?  It’s all gone.  Nothing left but a very thin, diffuse mist of subatomic particles existing at a very cold temperature, where no more thermodynamic reactions are possible – known romantically as the Heat Death of the Universe.  It’s like the Universe was the shower, and all the hot water was gone because your kids are incapable of taking a shower of less than an hour’s duration.

roboginsburg

Ginsburg is never gonna carpool with anybody but Sotomayor again.

So everything has an end, with the possible exception of Hillary Clinton’s twin needs for political power and chardonnay.  Oh, and maybe Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who has been rumored to have uploaded her consciousness to a small robot that she fashioned out of an old Sony® laptop and a Roomba© vacuum cleaner.  Okay, to be honest, I started the Ginsburg rumor, because it would be really amazing if all of the members of the SCOTUS did that.  I therefore declare personal ownership of the concept of RoboJudge©, including animation rights, but I would be willing to trade the Mongolian comic book rights for a beer right about now . . . .

Speaking of Heat Death, I found the following graph at RStreet.org (LINK):

Real-DJIA-46-to-18

Ohhhh, pretty bumps!  If this was a roller coaster, what would happen next?

I actually drew this graph out on paper (back to the 2006 Dow levels) on a really slow work day one winter when I worked in Fairbanks, calculating what the Dow-Jones Industrial Average would be if it were in constant dollars.  I even used data on the Consumer Price Index, and did all the math, and sacrificed a chicken, which is required in economics to make sure the results are right.  Anyway, what’s interesting to me is that this graph shows the result of asset prices in a “forever low” interest rate environment.

I never, ever, would have guessed that this would have been the outcome of the Fed’s policy of printing money like a toddler drools to cover the massive spending and deficits of everyone who’s been president this century.  I would have guessed that we would have had massive inflation, and an economy that would make the socialist paradise of Venezuela feel happy that they could stand in line for two days to get the free half cup of sawdust to eat.

Instead, we have Netflix®, a soaring asset base, and tacos on Tuesday.

I think I missed two things:

In a unipolar world, where we have the biggest and most intimidating armed forces the world has ever seen, everybody feels safe to use a dollar.  It doesn’t make sense, but neither does the popularity of Twilight®.  How intimidating are our armed forces?  So intimidating that literally no power on Earth would ever consider taking us on in a conventional war.  We’ve spent so much money on awesome military stuff that we’ve made World War II tactics impossible to use on us.  So people around the world use dollars.  It’s the next iteration of the Golden Rule:  He who has the gold, makes the rules.  And he who has the gun, has the gold.  Just ask governments that tried to sell oil in their own currencies – I won’t use real names, let’s just call them Kuamar Mhadafy and Haddam Sussein.

This soaks up a lot of cash. Piles of it.  And, better yet?  Everyone in the world is willing to sell us actual physical stuff in exchange for electronic transfer of codes that say they have dollars.  We don’t even have to print new dollars anymore!

twilight

Oh, and I’m sorry to have mentioned Twilight.  If it helps, at least it’s not 50 Shades of Grey.

The other thing I missed is that banks just sat on huge deposits of cash to make their depleted balance sheets look better.  They could just deposit the money at the Fed.  I think we all agree that this was a better idea than just lending $2.7 million to absolutely anyone who wanted a house, even if “anyone” was a 12 year old buzzed on Pixie Sticks™ and the house was a cardboard box in the alley behind an all-night waffle and pizza restaurant.

But keeping that sort of balance is hard.  Eventually the money starts to leak back into the economy – Chinese folks purchase Vancouver from the Canadians. Then the Canadians get excited because they can take their maple-syrup covered hands and spend the recycled American dollars on comic books and pantyhose from the United States.  End result?  Those dollars leak back.

And into stocks.  And other assets.  Some observers have said that, in addition to the high prices on the stock market, we also have a bubble in absolutely everything.  But back to the stock market:

So, given that we’re at historically high valuations for a stock market . . . is it real?  Can it sustain this high level?

Bueller, Bueller, anyone?

The Search for Meaning Might Drain Your Bank Account

“They haven’t said much about the meaning of life yet.” – Monty Python’s The Meaning of Life

20150624_193844-001

So, is the meaning of life having a super sweet car like this?  If so, would having a Bat Cave be like double extra meaning?  If so, count me in!

One tragedy of our current culture is lower amounts of social interaction leading to meaning.

So what do I mean by meaning?

Meaning is significance.  Meaning is working on something important.  Meaning implies actions that change the world for the better, or at least change someone’s life for the better.  Ideally, this work is something that you are uniquely suited to do and that you’re good at, but those things aren’t absolutely necessary.  The idea is that you have some way that you can actively change the world for the better.  And you don’t have to paint the world to make it better, because the world is really big, and it would take a very long time to paint it, kind of like my house exterior, which, at last count, has taken me 10 years to paint, mainly because I haven’t started yet.

But meaning takes time.  And it takes persistence.  And sometimes it takes money.

Those things can be difficult, especially if you’re lazy like me.

So where can you get meaning?

  • Your job. A job is a good and admirable place to find meaning, and ideally yours is such a place.  But it probably isn’t.  Some people, like those at the IRS, actually have a job that implies they will make others angry with no real discernible benefit to society.  How about being a prison guard?  Tough duty.  And how many jobs are, well, just plain BS?  If you have one of those or aspire to one of those, you’re in luck!  There’s an entire web page dedicated to generating job titles for you!  (LINK)  Chances are better than even that your job is just that – a job.  It’s a job that people pay you to keep doing rather than a saintly crusade to save the planet.  Hey, at least you get paid, right?
  • Your family. This is a great place to get meaning.  But if you’re a dad like me, your main job is to produce independent and tough children who view the world as a challenge that they want to beat.  It’s like you light a bottle rocket and then . . . off it goes.  After you’ve done lit the fuse, well, it’s gone.  And it doesn’t need you anymore – it has a purpose and a path.  I apologize to anyone who really desires to make dependent children who are needy basket cases, but that’s not the way we roll at Casa Wilder.  So, by definition, my children need me less each and every day.

What are the alternatives if you don’t get meaning at work, and need more than family can provide?

meaning

In the United States we used to take part in civic organizations to do meaningful work, or at least drink and smoke cigarettes, pipes and cigars while we pretended to do meaningful work.  Or smoke and talk drunkenly about the meaningful work that we really, really intended to do.  But those civic organizations really did accomplish a lot – from scholarships to the foundation of hospitals and clinics to funding zoos and draining swamps to get rid of disease-carrying mosquitoes.  And our forefathers accomplished all of that with a hacking cough and a buzz on.

Sadly, one last civic organization I attended spent more effort complaining about other members of the organization that weren’t there than it did changing the world.  And they didn’t even drink.  I don’t go to meetings anymore, though I did suggest beer would be good at the meetings.  If we’re not going to do something to help humanity, at least we should drink, right?  I don’t smoke, but I’d be willing to learn, if it helped.  Alas, this sober and smoke-free organization does little to change the world.

As a nation, our civic participation is down overall – the book Bowling Alone recounts how membership in groups that meaningfully participate at the local level of communities is . . . down.  Rotary.  Lions.  Boy Scouts.  Knights of Columbus.

It even reaches from structured clubs to bowling leagues.  Bowling leagues?  Well, the author used that data to show that social interaction was down across the board.  The overall number of bowlers is up, but the number of participants in bowling leagues is down.  We’re bowling, but we’re only bowling with people we already know.  We’re not using any sort of social energy to meet other people and forge new friendships and relationships that strengthen the civic core.  But at least you can drink and bowl.

If I was a cynic, I’d say the system was designed to do decrease civic participation – if we’re not actively making our community better ourselves, well, we can leave it for government to do.  Government likes this a whole lot.  Things that used to done by ordinary citizens in the community, say, being on the volunteer fire department, can now be replaced by professional firefighters who get paid.  Government wins both ways – the fire department employees like to get paid and vote for the people that pay them, and government has assumed another duty that it must tax for.  A win-win!

Unless you’re the guy paying taxes.

Regardless of why civic participation is down, it is down.  The reasons might form a future post.  And that removes a very significant opportunity to be, well, significant.  Thankfully there are other outlets.  Me?  I write this blog.  I know it’s seen by nearly every person on the planet right now.  Okay, okay, it’s not.  But traffic is heading that way.  At current growth trends in the year 2371 everyone on Earth will be doing nothing but reading my blog six hours a day.  Which is as it should be.  Then I will be officially meaningful.

However, there are other outlets besides writing that are preferred by other people:

Gaming.  I think I’ve told this story before on the blog, but keep in mind, when I originally wrote it I was getting about 1/10th the traffic I’m getting now.  So, if you’ve heard this story before, pretend you haven’t, because I’m going to tell it even better this time:

In the 1990’s, I remember watching the HBO™ series Dream On.  In this series, a newly single guy in New York had numerous adventures.  Since it was on HBO®, many of the adventures involved scantily clad females.  Or completely naked females.  But I turned away from the set and read my Bible during those naughty, naughty scenes.  Thank heavens the VCR was recording.

The main character had an office job in New York.  He also had a secretary, Toby.  She was written as a nearly worthless secretary with an attitude.  In one particular episode, she does nothing but play a video game on her work computer.  You could do that before the Internet and the IT department tracked every keystroke.

The game involved a supermarket.  Toby started the episode as a stock boy in the game.  Then she worked her way up to bag boy a few scenes later.  Then, cashier.  Then a few scenes later?  Produce manager.

Finally, at the very end of the episode, she yelled:

“I DID IT!”

“I’m the MANAGER!”

“Of a supermarket . . . that doesn’t exist . . . .”

With each phrase, her emotions changed.  At first, joy in achievement!  Secondly, a questioning voice . . . a manager.  Finally, her voice got very small.  She realized her accomplishment was really no accomplishment.  It lacked meaning.

If you like games, if you like escaping in them, that’s fine, more power to you.  But remember, they’re not really a substitute for actual achievement.  Plus, this is Wealthy Wednesday – how much money do you want to spend on games, anyway?  And how much time do you want to spend on them?  Yeah, I know, I spent two hours today.  But . . . umm, I’m sure I had a good reason.

Consumption.  Yes, this is Wealthy Wednesday, and as such we finally have to get around to this.

Consumption is used as a replacement for actual significance and achievement.  It’s even encouraged.  Why does it work?

Where else can you go, hunt for something, find it, and then get it.  It’s certain to work, every time.  You can’t fail.  Yet you get the opportunity to experience the flush of success, the dopamine rush from having found and purchased what you were looking for.  And if you bought it off the Internet, you get a second rush when the little brown box from Amazon shows up*.

That purchase gives the same feeling as accomplishing something that has actual meaning, and there’s none of the work and none of the uncertainty.  It almost doesn’t matter what the thing is.  It could be shoes.  It could be books.  It could be lightbulbs.  It could be PEZ® dispensers.  As long as it’s something that you can actually do, your brain can take this stimulus and turn it into a replacement for actual achievement.

And it has been culturally jammed into our heads – we’re not who we are, we are the sum total of what we own.  We are our car.  We are our house.  We are our slacks.  We are our PEZ® dispensers.  This consumption has replaced civic virtue.  It has replaced the Lions Club.  It has replaced the Rotary, the Kiwanis, and the Knights of Columbus, but unlike those groups, you can do it alone, at night, downstairs in your underwear, after a few beers.  At 2AM, feeling like you haven’t lived up to your potential in life?  If you’re tired of being the manager of a supermarket that doesn’t exist, well, perhaps you can check in at Amazon.com® to see what you can buy to fill the achievement and meaning-sized hole in your heart?

This post is about wealth – and the first requirement of being wealthy is that you don’t spend thousands of dollars on useless crap to replace meaning in your life.  Especially if you don’t have the cash to spend.  If you don’t have the cash to buy that new truck and you buy it anyway?  Now you have debt.  And the debt removes your peace of mind and you go in search of more meaning, so you buy the boat.  And you and your wife have to work for years of your life to pay for it all.

That’s okay, it’s not like you can become a slave to your own consumption based on your search of meaning, is it?

Nah.  I’m sure that doesn’t happen.

*I refuse to say how I learned this.