Civil War 2.0 Weather Report: Two Minutes To Midnight

“Two minutes, tops.  But it’s a tough two minutes.” – Reservoir Dogs

Finland has no border problems – no one can cross the Finnish line.

  1. Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
  2. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
  3. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  4. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
  5. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
  6. Open War.

Volume V, Issue 9

All memes except for the clock and graphs are “as found”.

This is a moving situation, and things are changing quickly.  The advice remains.  Avoid crowds.  Get out of cities.  Now.  A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue:  Front Matter – Governing War Structures – Violence and Censorship Update – Biden’s Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Kabuki Border Theater? – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month.  I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues.  Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 810 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.

Governing War Structures

In the aftermath of the Virgina Second Amendment rally a few years ago I had a realization about path to Civil War 2.0:  organization will be very, very fast.  I think I even wrote those words in the Civil War 2.0 Weather Report, but I’m too lazy to look it up.  Regardless, I’m going with a full “I told you so” about this one.

What’s gray, has spikes, and runs around a field?  Barbed wire.

First:  Texas wasn’t ordered by the Supreme Court to do anything.  The Supreme Court’s decision was removing an injunction against the more or less worthless Customs and Border Protection (CBP) being able to remove razor wire that Texas put up, so the ruling doesn’t require Texas to do anything.

Second:  If CBP is as bad at customs as they are at immigration, I’d expect that you could export nuclear bombs to Bulgaria.

Aside from that, the amazing thing was about how quickly a coalition of the Several States backed Texas.  I was doing a podcast with The Mrs. and Mark and even as we were talking, more and more governors were saying that they stood with Texas in real time – state after state.

This was a big deal.

If at first you don’t secede, try, try again.

And it happened very, very quickly.  This is the trigger to number 9 on the Civil War 2.0 countdown list, and it happened in less than 24 hours.  The list is incomplete, since I’m certain more of the Several States would side with Texas if things went sideways, and places like Colorado and Illinois would mostly secede, leaving small islands of blue in seas of red.  Kentucky?  Yeah, they’d be in as well because of their pioneering spirit.  In Kentucky, when your car breaks down?  You build a house next to it.

Now there’s a slogan I can get behind.

The oppositional structure for Civil War 2.0 developed out of thin air on a single evening in January.  There’s more to the story down below, but the lines developed amazingly quickly.  I thought the real issue would be the Second Amendment, but illegal immigration managed to do what no other issue that the TradRight had could do:  make everyone notice.  The unending flood of illegal aliens (an absolute record this month, ever, as shown in the Civil War Index graph below) has been the catalyst.

Note to the FedGov folks, if you enforced the actual Constitution and kicked out the illegals, you could probably stop Texas from straying.

I do expect that (for reasons as noted in our second story) that the tension from this may fade, but the governing structures are in place, which places us firmly at two minutes until midnight.

Yes, we are very close, but Biden backed down because he realizes that on the FAFO graph, he’s pretty close to the FO section.

Does this make him scared enough to pee his pants?  Depends.

The federal government has to push so hard because it feels that its power is becoming more tenuous.  Yes, this tension may fade and after two more months I’ll back down the clock of doom, but this is an amazingly large step.

There have been others.

Missouri would be in trouble except for:

Violence and Censorship Update

I’ll (mostly) let the memes speak for themselves.

As God is my witness, I never knew convicts could fly.

And people say there isn’t a perfect woman.

Looks like Canada is behind enemy lines now.

If I X’d® this, I’d be in jail now.  So why isn’t Soros?  Oh, yeah, he’s a billionaire who hates America.

Think he wants to put up the Statue of Oppression?

What’s a sensitive event?  Whatever Google® says it is.

I wonder if Australia realizes this will just make all the edgy kids get swastika tats?

Canada, are you doing okay?  Looks like you haven’t figured out the whole “laws” thing.

Biden’s Misery Index

Let’s take a look to see how we’ve done this month . . . .

Yup, up again, but only slightly.  Does it matter after the damage has been done?

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time.  They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings.  As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index.  On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Violence is flat.  Winter is in, and riots aren’t as fun in galoshes.

Political Instability:

Up is more unstable, and it is slightly down.

Economic:

Economic numbers did a slight dive.  I wonder if it’s because they caught this guy?

Illegal Aliens:

The most, ever, in the history of the country.  For all time.

Kabuki Border Theater?

PIERRE

The Texas border confrontation has been in the news bigly.  Is it real?  Follow this (LINK) from a Texan (courtesy Aesop) who says that just a mile from the confrontation spot that the border is wide open.  Wide open, but perhaps slightly inconvenient.

Does this matter?

Yes, it matters.

Absolutely.  The border simply does not exist in 2024.  Anyone can walk across at any time, any place, and be rewarded with cash, prizes, airfare to anyplace in the nation, and free room and board.  It’s in New York.  It’s in Boston.  It’s everywhere.

What’s a radical Leftist’s favorite font?  Sans sheriff.

The GloboElite get cheap labor.  The GloboLeftists s get free votes and power.  Oddly, they even share that.

Remember to call a doctor if your election vote counting lasts more than four hours.

But, hey, I hear that they’re close to an illegal immigration vote in Congress!

LINKS

As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky.  Thanks so much, Ricky!!

Bad Guys

https://twitter.com/i/status/1751673864524894408

https://twitter.com/i/status/1744577621319667964

https://twitter.com/i/status/1747837919312687268

https://twitter.com/i/status/1744180313876574264

https://twitter.com/tecas2000/status/1752757658161926364

https://twitter.com/TheWatcherDaily/status/1727684087245132251

https://twitter.com/tecas2000/status/1754194250638508470

https://twitter.com/i/status/1753461857124323462

https://twitter.com/i/status/1752897020560379985

https://twitter.com/i/status/1740256698781360200

https://twitter.com/i/status/1741324539265532308

https://twitter.com/i/status/1741890761845608774

https://twitter.com/i/status/1741106761984057418

https://twitter.com/ShootInUSA/status/1747178759730671934

 

Good Guys

https://news.yahoo.com/shootout-jewelry-store-oaklands-fruitvale-030731425.html

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1748054072215703703

 

One Guy

https://wcyb.com/news/local/kyle-rittenhouse-event-at-etsu-moving-to-larger-venue-because-of-high-demand-for-tickets

https://www.wjhl.com/news/local/controversy-at-etsu-over-kyle-rittenhouse-as-guest-speaker/

https://www.timesnews.net/opinion/columns/bob-arrington-kyle-rittenhouse-etsu-and-free-speech/article_8dc3908e-c06b-11ee-819d-7f6c131835ee.html#google_vignette

https://www.newsweek.com/kyle-rittenhouse-republican-gun-control-ar15-1866056

 

Body Count

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/soldiers-killed-jordan-names/

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/01/10/army-sees-sharp-decline-white-recruits.html

https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/24/us-military-stretched-too-thin-to-deal-with-threats-report-says/

https://www.heritage.org/military

https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-longer-top-level-fighting-070000553.html

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1747835202985185509

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/blood-clots-embalmers-report-mid-2021-covid-vaccines/

https://studyfinds.org/childless-millennials-parents/

https://www.prri.org/research/generation-zs-views-on-generational-change-and-the-challenges-and-opportunities-ahead-a-political-and-cultural-glimpse-into-americas-future/

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1750650452105179630

 

Vote Count 

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1691812817798566281

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fjustthenews.com%2Fpolitics-policy%2Felections%2Fdhs-agency-warned-about-integrity-mail-voting-2020-election-while

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fthefederalist.com%2F2024%2F01%2F16%2Flawsuit-uncovers-how-raffensperger-tried-to-memory-hole-the-election-law-trumps-georgia-call-was-about%2F

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/government-suppressed-censored-concerns-over-mail-in-voting-in-2020-report-5573274?utm_source=epochHG&utm_campaign=CFP&src_src=epochHG&src_cmp=CFP

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ajc.com%2Fpolitics%2Fwitness-shows-how-to-tamper-with-georgia-elections-in-security-trial%2FWUVKCYNV3ZGOVNB6X6TDX2GEFQ%2F

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/13/trump-loyalists-2024-presidential-election

https://www.uncoverdc.com/2024/01/25/afl-lawsuit-cisa-withheld-critical-election-administration-information-to-further-its-own-agenda

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/01/26/exclusive-defeat-maga-meet-the-radical-left-network-that-hijacked-democrats-in-effort-to-stop-trump-at-all-costs/

https://indivisible.org/groups

 

Civil War

https://tomluongo.me/2024/01/25/soft-secession-insurrection-or-the-real-return-of-federalism-in-texas/

https://donaldjeffries.substack.com/p/greg-abbott-and-the-invasion-of-the

https://ijr.com/gen-flynn-constitution-literally-allows-texas-engage-war-southern-border/

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/clay-higgins-calls-on-texas-to-ignore-supreme-court-ruling-because-biden-is-staging-a-civil-war/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12954689/Texas-independence-vote-court-ballot.html

https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Them-vs-Us_CTUP-Rasmussen-Study-FINAL.pdf

https://publichealth.jhu.edu/sites/default/files/2023-12/dec-2023-cgvs-defending-democracy.pdf

https://starkrealities.substack.com/p/americans-are-fighting-for-control

https://news.yahoo.com/endless-civil-war-americas-160-013209995.html

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Famgreatness.com%2F2024%2F01%2F08%2Fa-culture-in-collapse%2F

https://indi.ca/why-civil-war-is-too-good-for-america/

https://off-guardian.org/2024/01/31/discuss-is-world-war-3-really-on-the-horizon/

Electric Vehicles: The Big Con

“You mean, drive in hybrids, but not act like we’re better than everyone else because of it?” – South Park

If you buy an EV from Dodge®, you also get a Dodge Charger™. (Memes mostly as found)

Based on the evidence I’ve seen so far in news stories, I’ve come to a conclusion about electric vehicles (EVs).  It’s this:  If you keep your EV parked in the garage at all times and never, ever drive in the winter, it works perfectly.

And, no, I don’t have one – I don’t need to have one to view the evidence that’s piling up.  I would believe that even the manufacturers would tell you that it’s pretty hard to charge an EV when it’s zero outside, unless you warm up the battery first.

They also have lower winter range for two reasons:  they have to electrically heat up the interior, which directly robs range, and in cold weather the battery cannot discharge as deeply – the rate of chemical reaction that the battery requires slows in cold conditions.

I wonder if all those people waiting to charge their cars are listening to AC/DC?

The range of most electric vehicles is incompatible with a Real American Road Trip.  Modern Mayberry has one big advantage over most places – it’s 100 miles from anywhere.  The downside for that on an electric car is obvious – a round trip to Mt. Pilot is simply not possible during the winter, unless I find and use a charging station.  The one in Mt. Pilot (there is only one) is not exactly in the best part of town, and it’s dozens of miles out of the way on any trip – a 100 mile trip now has another half an hour of driving added, plus the time required for charging.

Or, I could just bring a gasoline powered generator . . .

You can tell it’s not an Apple® car – it has Windows®.

Yes, I suppose that it’s true that an EV could replace most of my car usage.  Most days I drive less than 40 miles.  But in order for the EV to work, I’d have to own a second car just for the (not at all rare) trips where I have to go over 100 miles from home.  The range of an EV is simply incompatible with the size of the United States.

I suppose that would make sense if owning an EV provided cheaper transportation.

It doesn’t.  Insurance is much more expensive for an EV than an internal combustion engine car of the same value because they’re much more expensive to work on, even when they don’t catch fire.  Hertz™ Rent-A-Car© found this out – they’re now ditching the majority of the EVs that they bought.  Too expensive to run, too expensive to fix, too expensive to insure.

What happens when a Tesla® hits someone at a given frequency?  It Hertz®.

A dirty secret that’s causing the value of EVs to drop on the secondhand market is that the batteries will die.  If you use an EV a lot, the batteries will cycle and die.  If you don’t use it, the batteries will age and die.  If I had twenty-year old vehicle (and I do) I know that the hoses will break, I’ll eventually need to replace the clutch pad and brake pads.  Stuff will eventually need to be replaced.

But every time Pugsley turns the key, it cranks over and he drives it to school.  If it depended on twenty-year-old batteries?

Not thinking it would be a pretty sight if he had to depend on batteries old enough to vote.  On a zero degree day.

If a crackhead stole the copper lead, would he be guilty of mis-conduct?

The biggest drawback to EV adoption is battery tech.  It sucks.  But let’s pretend that we could store five times the energy in a typical EV battery pack – move from a 200 mile range to 1000 miles.  That would be awesome!  Let’s forget that’s nearly an order of magnitude increase in capacity for a second.

Now, instead of 200 miles worth of electricity stored in a battery that you’re sitting on, it’s 1000 miles worth of electricity – five times the density.  Did I mention that when an EV battery fails, it fails spectacularly?  Like in a crash?

Yeah, my car has a lot of stored energy in the gas tank, but we’ve figured out how to (mostly) keep it from blowing up all the time after over 100 years of experience, and most car explosions are in movies where the hero tosses a cigar to blow up the villain.  Of course, he does this and doesn’t look back, because it’s way cooler that way.

My dog exploded – he was half Irish setter, and half meth lab.

I’ve come to the conclusion that EVs are nothing more than a niche car for people who live in nice climates that never get really cold and are rich enough to have a car for each day of the week.

The gamechanger, for EVs is, of course, battery technology.  Triple the energy storage and halve the charging time at a lower cost with more safety?  Excellent.  Atomic powered batteries that are crash resistant that only need charging every fifty years?  Winner.

But I won’t hold my breath waiting for that.  There don’t appear to be any breakthroughs on the horizon that will make this work. And if there were, there are other problems.

Where does all that electricity come from?  Right now, the Texas grid is shedding load.  And California, who can’t seem to generate electricity without creating wildfires would need to consume at least 50% more electricity to electrify all their transport.  Since California has gone from NIMBY (not in my backyard) to BANANA (build absolutely nothing anywhere near anything) it’s obvious that electric capacity would have to be built in Arizona or Nevada or in the orbiting Unicorn Fart Farm.

How do you get Canada to support their electric grid?  Say it’s transgender.

No.  California won’t be going electric anytime soon.  Sensible places like Alberta and Switzerland discourage or prohibit EV charging in cold winter months, and they aren’t governed by Grabbin Nuisance.

It’s weird when a society makes detailed maps about how it’s going to destroy itself.  Well, at least people will soon be able to walk like an Egyptian.

The irony is this:  if the Left was really serious about reducing greenhouse gases by using less gasoline, the answer is really simple.  35 to 45 mile per gallon cars were made in the early 1980s, and had sufficient power to be useful on the highway.

What happened?  Additional environmental controls that addressed problems than 90% of the country doesn’t have.  Nitrogen oxides?  Bad in places that have smog.  Out in the rest of the Midwest?  Zero issues.  Yet, every car is designed based on the problems of Los Angeles.  In Fairbanks, they had a pretty simple emissions test, and wouldn’t let you drive a car in winter (when Fairbanks has smog) if it didn’t pass.

That’s too simple.  Let’s make every car suitable for L.A.

Then there are the CAFE standards – the Corporate Average Fuel Economy imposed on the automakers.  But CAFE excludes trucks and SUVs, so now everyone makes trucks and SUVs.  What about the mighty Toyota® Hilux, the car voted most likely to be driven by a Middle Eastern Faction?  Can’t sell it here, because of California and CAFE – small trucks have to meet silly standards.

We could save millions of gallons of gasoline tomorrow if we allowed sensible cars to be sold.

But no.  That would lower the cost of a reasonable car with great fuel economy to about $15,000, and nobody wants that.  I mean, Big Auto and Big Environment are in bed and agree, so who cares about the people?

Who cares?  Toyota, apparently.

I think EVs combined with silly-expensive cars is a meme trap for the mass demobilization of the American people.  And why not?  They can go to 15 minute cities, as the World Economic Forum keeps preaching.  And since almost half the world’s electric cars are being produced in China, is this a plan to offshore what remains of automobile manufacturing in America?  I imagine a rhyme of the phrase utterd by Barack Obama, “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor” which will become “If you like your car, you can keep your car.”

If it was a good deal, and EVs were the solution, we’d see technological and price advances and not have to depend on silly government handouts to make them a reasonable purchase.  EVs will stick around longer than they should, but, just like Joe Biden, they will never be the solution, no matter how the Left tries to force it.

But, hey, I hear that EVs work great in the garage!

Ye Olde Wilder’s Almanack of Things That Won’t In Thine Yeare of Our Lord 2024 Happen

“Since when can weathermen predict the weather, let alone the future?” – Back to the Future

I think Lady Macbeth wanted to walk her dog the other night.  She kept yelling, “Out, damned Spot!”

Notes:  No podcast tomorrow.  Or the next week.  I’m not going to push The Mrs. this week, and next week she has to go get measured for one of those plastic bubbles so she can live in one (just kidding, follow up visit and we probably won’t be home from Modern Mount Pilot by then, she’s getting better every day). 

Second:  if you’ve emailed me and I didn’t respond, please email me again.  I enjoy and respond to every email sent to me (if I’m cc’d or bcc’d, no, but I read most of those).  I found several in a spam filter today, and I apologize for not checking that since roughly 2007.  I’ll check every week now.

Now, on to the show!

Last year I swapped out my idea of predicting the future.  It appears to be harder.  Now, I predict what won’t happen.  It’s more fun, and I can pretty much bat 1.000 by doing that while making a few humorous points along the way.  So, with that, here are my Wilder Predictions for What Won’t Happen in 2024™.

First:  Ukraine won’t “win”.  So far, the war in the Ukraine has been a disaster for everyone involved.  Had Donald Trump been in office, this never would have happened.  Donald is all about the deal, and had he been president at the time, Putin and Zelensky would probably have come together over a deal that would have been mutually beneficial, and trade would have probably been increased between the two, and there would have been hugs all around.

Really.  That’s what would have happened.  Biden could have shut this down with one phone call.  Of course, the Left would have gone nuts, since a large part of their strategy is to pump the wealth out of the Ukraine directly into either their pockets or their campaigns.  Ukraine is a country that makes the money laundering on Better Call Saul look like amateur hour, so I guess peace was never an option.

Still more credible than the official story.

Second, Israel and Palestine won’t be joining each other for dinner.  Ever.  Note:  I don’t have a dog in this hunt.  The following is an analysis, not a wish list.  No matter what I feel, the writing is on the wall.

This is an existential crisis for both sides, and both are already in a diaspora so they can continue this fight wherever Jews and Palestinians (or Leftists) are in the same city.  In the long term, nobody wants the Palestinians, even (and especially) the neighboring Arab states, so Israel wants to export them to Europe and the United States.  I’m betting they all end up in Canada, or what future historians will call, “Gaza with Grizzlies.”

The Romans couldn’t invent algebra because X was always 10.

Long term for Israel, well, Israel is doomed, too.  They’re surrounded by Islamist populations that will soon outnumber them 50 to 1.  I anticipate another diaspora there, too.  Maybe to Ukraine?  Not sure anyone will be living there, but there will be plenty to mine.  Or de-mine.

I think eventually the merged Facebook®/Al-Jazeera© will probably end up running Jerusalem.

Third, and I’m going out on a limb with this one:  The US Debt won’t come down.  Even though Congress and both presidential candidates will jaw about it incessantly, they won’t do anything, and I do mean anything to even slightly slow it down.  Nope.  It’ll increase faster than Taylor Swift can ruin a football franchise.  Side note:  I took my car to the mechanic because it was making a horrible noise.  Turns out it was Taylor Swift on the radio.

Fourth, the 2024 Election won’t be free and fair.  I know, I know, I’m playing with fire on this one.  It’s clear that the Left mobilized every single trick they read on that Buzzfeed® article, Ten Crazy Things You Can Do to Steal An Election And They Won’t Stop You (You Won’t Believe Number Seven!).  They even bragged about it in a Time® magazine article about how they conspired to do everything they could possibly think of to Make America Democratic Again, since it was clear that Joe Biden created as much enthusiasm with the American people as passing a kidney stone.

They stole the election.

I wish our elections were less corrupt, like China or Russia.

The biggest factor was in creating slop in the system.  Early voting, that ensured that dead people would vote.  Yeah, dead people.  Some percentage of people who voted died after their ballots were cast, and not all of them were Friends of Hillary.  So, dead people voted, and their ballots were just as good as yours.

Ballots were harvested, this is clear, we’ve seen people dropping off dozens and hundreds of ballots.  Exactly as designed.  Mail in voting?  Why not?  And early voting resulted in numerous cases (especially in Michigan) where the early vote was counted, even though the actual voter showed up at the poll and claimed they never requested an early ballot.  They were given a provisional ballot.  In a leaked recording of a Michigan training session, the provisional ballots were given out so people wouldn’t throw a fit.  The provisional ballots of people who showed up in person whose votes were stolen were . . . discarded.

Making an election free and fair is easy:

  1. Paper ballots only. California just outlawed paper ballots, so you know this is a good idea.  The idea isn’t that we make the system so that votes are easy to count – the idea is that we make the system so only valid votes get counted.  If you need more people and it’s important, hire them.
  2. Same day voting, in person, only. Exception for the military – they vote where they are.  If overseas, they vote on election day and the votes are counted right there and results transmitted to the precincts by 11:30pm precinct time.  That day.  All votes are counted by midnight.  If not counted by midnight, they are discarded.  If Detroit can’t figure out how to do that?  Pound sand.
  3. All votes, all voting boxes are counted and are on video every second and broadcast.
  4. All vote counting takes place on video in full view.
  5. Every voter sticks their hand in that blue stuff they cover bank robbers in. It’ll wash off.  If you have a Smurf® hand?  You can’t vote again.  Oh, and you need I.D., even though the Left thinks that blacks aren’t smart enough to get one.

As I said, this won’t happen.  Leftists want every vote counted so that they can just manufacture votes as needed.  People on the Right want only valid votes counted.

Thanks to Biden, soon every American will be a billionaire!  Of course, that’s what it costs for a Snickers®…

Fifth, suppression of viewpoints on the Right won’t stop.  One of the key elements of control is the control of the ability to share ideas.  That’s why the Left was the “Free Speech” party right until they felt they could spike the ball and start sending us to the GULAG.  Blog views are down over most of the Right blogs, and that’s due in part to suppression of search engine traffic, which is a primary way that new readers find us – they stumble upon us while searching for a topic.  If I were Vox Day I’d suggest we create a news and commentary search engine for the Right.

If only someone like Ricky would make one…

A bikini covers only 5 to 10 percent of a woman’s body, yet men are so polite they only look at the covered parts.

Sixth, Elon will not hit peak amusement in 2024.  Good heavens, that man cracks me up.  It’s really fun to watch him change positions over time, but not unusual.  Why?  They have to suppress our ideas because the Truth is inherently Right.

Seventh, no alien contact will happen this year, but it will be trotted out again and again – my bet is that in March and July or August or whenever Biden needs a distraction it’ll show back up in the news.  It’s the ultimate shiny object to distract with.  I mean, besides COVID.

Eighth:  The RINO congress won’t suddenly become effective.  This is a repeat for the last 27 years.  Gingrich did a good job.

Ninth:  Illegal immigration won’t be stopped, but may be (slightly) slowed.  The Wealth Pump from the Elite demands it, and the ideology from the Left demands it.

If you filmed a superhero movie in Detroit, you’d have to use CGI to repair buildings.

Tenth:  2024 is not the year we lose.  The spark that is at our core has existed since (at least, and probably before) the dawn of civilization, and started to burn brighter some 2024 years ago.  That won’t change.  Provided we don’t go full Revelation, we’ll exist until we go full Revelation.

This isn’t over.  We’re not done.  Take that to the bank.

Civil War 2.0 Weather Report – 11 Months Until Election 2024

“I gave you the chance of aiding me willingly, but you have elected the way of pain.” – The Fellowship of the Ring

The 2024 election results are in.  I mean, the Democrats already have them written down . . .

  1. Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
  2. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
  3. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  4. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
  5. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
  6. Open War.

Volume V, Issue 7

All memes except for the clock and graphs are “as found”.

This is a moving situation, and things are changing quickly.  The advice remains.  Avoid crowds.  Get out of cities.  Now.  A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue:  Front Matter – Countdown To 2024 – Violence and Censorship Update – Biden’s Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Alien Army – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month.  I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues.  Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 820 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.

Civil War Weather Report Previous Posts

Countdown to 2024

Oh, that shirt is just so very last year!

Elections are busy things.  The one thing that both parties do is that they try to heighten the sense of importance of each election.  I’m certain that, for every presidential election during my conscious lifetime I’ve heard the following statement:

“This is the most important election in history.”  Some are more important than others.  But would much have changed if Bush I would have defeated Clinton?  Probably not much at all.  Would things have been different if Al Gore had been elected in 2000?  No.  Would things have been much different if the other candidate had won in 2004, or 2008, or 2012?

No, not really.  In most of those cases the differences between the candidates were so small that there really wasn’t a difference.  How different would Romney’s first term be than Obama’s second term?  Not a mitten’s worth of difference.

But then we get to 2016.  Trump as a candidate would never have been electable before 2016.  But by 2016, it was enough – the majority of the American Right was done with the system, and candidates like ¡Jeb! were seen as what they really were:  jokes.

In the most shocking part of his presidency:  Trump actually tried to keep his campaign promises, even the ones official Washington didn’t like.  The result?  Absolutely everything possible was done so he could not be re-elected.  The silly thing is that had they left him in office, people would have been tired of Trump by 2024 and be ready (my guess) for a sharp turn Left.

It would have been perfect for them.  But, no.  It is clear and undisputed (and even bragged about) that the Left changed the laws in the country to make ballot harvesting and voter fraud easy.  When that wasn’t enough, they had to hide the counting and count ballots that the laws of several swing states indicated were illegal ballots.

Expect a replay in 2024.

There are more allegations, and more than enough smoke to know that there were fires in places that were crucial to Biden.  This created an outpouring of emotion far greater than any normal election would have – it made people feel that, indeed, this was the last stop.

It might have been.  However, we can see (as we’ve seen around the world in places like Great Britain and Ireland) that the draconian laws that are passed explicitly against the interests of the actual citizens shows that voting harder isn’t changing anything.

So, 2024 is eleven months out.  Is this the most important election of our lives?  Probably not.  Does it have the likelihood of being the most divisive election since 1860?

Yes.

Not even Kennedy can knock him down at this point.

Violence and Censorship Update

Back during the pandemic, ivermectin was ridiculed as “horse paste”.  I’m not suggesting it has anti-cancer properties, but this oncologist is.  Why isn’t that news?

A deranged trans person shot up a bunch of kids, waking people up and, in my opinion, set up the disgust that has led to the brand destruction of Bud Light™.  The manifesto of the killer was secret.  Why?  Was it because it showed a deep hatred for white people?  Regardless, it’s a “safety” concern of a Leftist mayor who wants to track down those that may have leaked it.  Why did they have to leak it, when there will be no trial, and there are no co-conspirators?  Oh, yes, censorship of dangerous information.

Her Accidency, the barely verbal Governor of New York, announces that New York no longer agrees with free speech.  At least against certain groups.

Neil the no longer Young is boycotting X®.  In other news, Neil the no longer Young is still alive.

Musk’s X® platform is the subject of an advertiser boycott, but advertisers are okay with Insta© serving up much more objectionable content.

Related:

In the “I’m leaving and I’m going to yell at you why” and no one cares file, there’s this:

Not in the United States, but, it’s weird with all the hate speech laws in Euroland, that Azad Talukder (a fine Irish name!) is not indicted for one wishing death on people speaking out against being stabbed.

Related, from Ireland, showing why the Second Amendment is important if you like the First Amendment:

I’ve got a lot more, really, but this is enough.  Violence is up (record numbers of murders in many US cities), and censorship is hitting a feeding frenzy.

Biden’s Misery Index

Let’s take a look to see how we’ve done this month . . . .

Yup, up again.  But not as bad as last month, thanks to winter and lower gas prices (one of the factors).

Here’s what building back better looks like:

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time.  They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings.  As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index.  On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Violence is down slightly.  Winter is in, and riots aren’t as fun in galoshes.

Political Instability:

Up is more unstable, and it is up.  I expected more by December, but, hey, it’s shopping season.

Economic:

Economic numbers are swinging back up again this month.  I expected more of a downturn in November, and was wrong, instead seeing it whipsaw back up.  Lower gas prices and giving up in Ukraine are (probably) partial drivers.

Illegal Aliens:

Another one of the biggest numbers, ever, in the history of the country, record for November.  For all time.  Why not tax them like El Salvador?  Oh, wait, those illegals are headed to the United States.

Alien Army

I had this down as a topic several weeks ago, so the recent date on the picture below just shows how fast this one is moving:

The aptly named Dick Durban has said the quiet part out loud:  since the Biden has made the primary source of the volunteer armed forces dry up by, well, hating the white people who have turned out in droves for it throughout history, the numbers have gone down.  How far down?  Far enough that instead of a brave Latina with two lesbian mothers in Air Force HR, they now are showing white guys doing macho things like jumping out of helicopters.

But they really don’t want white guys back.  They want a different group:  illegal aliens.  Why?  Think a kid from Conroe, Texas is going to shoot on a crowd of civilians at a bread line?

Nope.  But if it’s an ex MS-13 guy from Mexico who only knows the United States as a source of revenue, I think the answer is then drastically different.  When the head of the Department of Homeland Security wants to ignore his job since he probably can’t define the word “Homeland” and just give up and let anyone here stay, you know you have a problem.

Ireland has recently shown it has the same problem, but worse with politicians actively saying things that would be hate speech in Ireland unless spoken about the actual Irish.

This is another step towards open warfare on the legacy Americans.  And another step towards Civil War 2.0.

LINKS

As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky.  Thanks so much, Ricky!!

Bad Guys 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1730672536071938087

https://twitter.com/i/status/1730528857172619399

https://twitter.com/i/status/1728511136117543187

https://twitter.com/i/status/1726830295515877729

https://twitter.com/i/status/1724668651838767519

https://twitter.com/i/status/1730536906998313465

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12797119/NC-southeast-raleigh-high-school-stabbing-dead.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12797245/Chicago-robbery-rifle-woman-video-police-suspects.html

 

Good Guys

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1721541510523437338

 

One Guy

https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1722729642262433947

https://nypost.com/2023/11/10/metro/woman-threatened-by-homeless-mugger-wishes-vigilante-didnt-use-gun/

 

Body Count

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-beef-prices-hit-record-high-nations-cattle-herd-expected-shrink-through-2025

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12628299/birth-rate-america-fertility-fallen-disaster.html

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/24/1215152734/after-the-dobbs-decision-birth-rates-are-up-in-states-with-abortion-ban-states

https://fortune.com/2023/11/18/students-missing-school-attendance-chronic-absenteeism-teacher-shortage/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12776889/Oregon-overdoses-skyrocket-decriminalize-drugs-heroin-meth-cocaine.html

https://www.statista.com/chart/19920/us-veterans-from-another-country/

https://nypost.com/2023/11/25/metro/2516-nypd-cops-head-for-exits-so-far-in-2023-pension-data/

https://ammo.com/articles/gun-ownership-by-state

https://twitter.com/Risemelbourne/status/1729337006914990526

https://www.aussie17.com/p/new-zealand-government-data-administrator

https://vigilantnews.com/post/turbo-death-from-turbo-cancers-were-in-trouble-says-dr-ryan-cole

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/surge-young-people-deaths-insurance-industry/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12754341/nuclear-war-attack-silos-deaths.html

 

Vote Count

https://forwardmajority.org/battlegroundvoterproject/

https://uncoverdc.com/2023/10/31/georgia

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1723057416873681020.html

https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1723057416873681020

https://twitter.com/KevinKelton2?t=msfw1gf0DGhmKR7YTiILIw&s=03

https://uncoverdc.com/2023/11/09/elector-challenges-in-georgia-voter-intimidation-or-civic-duty

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/going-expose-everything-mike-lindell-says-georgia-voting-machine-ruling-opened-door-no

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/voting-machines-georgia-lawsuit/2023/11/12/id/1141994/

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Fpolitics%2F2023%2F11%2F16%2Fnebraska-gov-jim-pillen-warns-vague-deceptive-abortion-ballot-initiative%2F

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/abortion-rights-groups-seek-ballot-measures-9-states-2024-rcna125177

 

Civil War

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/11/15/texas-secession-texit/

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/texit-progress-secession-question-expected-appear-2024-texas-primary-ballot

https://www.davisenterprise.com/news/bob-dunning-secession-fever-hits-el-dorado-county/article_2c1c6894-8fe5-11ee-878b-734d7888a050.html

https://time.com/6222633/second-civil-war-us-how-to-avoid/

https://unherd.com/2023/11/inside-the-american-redoubt/

https://www.realclearpennsylvania.com/articles/2023/11/15/the_parties_have_irreconcilably_different_visions_for_america_992964.html

https://thewire.in/world/us-fascistic-violence-civil-war-election-2024

https://www.thefp.com/p/black-humor-in-venezuela-communist-fat-camp

https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-magic-moment/

Peter Turchin’s End Times: There Be Dragons Here

“The end time has come, not in flame, but in mist!” – The Mist

I once had shoes that had Velcro® closures.  I mean, why knot?

(Complete review in one post)

I recently completed the book End Times by Peter Turchin.  I have recently done a review of How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter (not that Barbara Walter, some other commie bimbo), and by comparison Ms. Walter’s book is a badly drawn crayon sketch of Donald Trump by a mildly developmentally disabled child who was born of the copulation of two stoned Leftists and raised on a diet of Trotsky and lead paint chips.

Her book was bad.  Turchin, who I imagine is also Left-leaning, was (mainly) able to keep his political opinions out of the book, and produce something useful and as even-handed as he could make it, what with having to go to fancy university parties with the Leftist intelligentsia who are globalist and communist at the same time, because, reasons.

Going back in time, Turchin predicted in the early ‘teens (2010, I believe) that the decade beyond 2020 was going to be rough.  This was based on an actual computational model, where he took various social factors, smashed them into a computer, and cranked out a slip of paper that said, “Beyond Here, There Be Dragons.”  To be fair, his model seems to have some predictive capacity, though I have yet to find a place to tinker with it, but I’ll bet Ricky can track it down if anyone can.  A .pdf that has a flavor of the model is here (LINK).

The XXX Files are a completely different subject.

His description of the model starts with one of the things that leads to collapse:  Elite Overproduction.  In this context, you pretty much know who the elite are.  Donald Trump is one, and so are the Clintons, and the Obamas, and thousands of other wealthy, socially connected people who have political power.  Per Turchin, only 9 presidents of the United States weren’t 1%ers, and before 1850, all of the presidents were elite and wealthy types and probably had exceptional hats, since they didn’t have other cool things to buy back then.

Turchin breaks down political power into four types:

  • Coercion – Do it or else. Leftists love this.  Think AntiFa® or .
  • Wealth – Let’s face it, rich dudes rarely do jail time, and where exactly is Epstein’s client list and why can’t you see it?
  • Bureaucracy – You own the organization that provide services or do stuff – think the IRS or the DMV.
  • Ideology – This includes CNN® and Harvard™.

Where do psychics shop?  The Seers® catalog.

In Turchin’s view, there are specialists at each level of political power.  The big problem for people is when these folks are present in too large of a quantity and get bored and have to do something else.  In 2016, we had a billionaire (Trump) running against someone worth in excess of $120 million (Hilldabeast).  In no way was this usual, but later, billionaire Michael Bloomberg jumped into the race.  Why?  Bored, I guess.  Most billionaires let other people do their fighting for them – like George Soros or Emperor Palpatine.  But I repeat myself.

The key problem is that there are more elite people who want power than there are available chairs.  That’s always the case to a certain extent, but with tens of thousands of Harvard© and Stanford™ and Dartmouth® grads fighting for elite positions in every facet of the coercion, wealth, bureaucratic, or ideological elite, well, this starts to drive instability, per Turchin.  Per me, there seem to be a lot of people who have no connection whatsoever with anyone but themselves and their elite cocoon of friends with the same ideas and no-fat decaf pumpkin-spice lattes.

Turchin later goes on to talk about how the British killing off tons of French nobility during battles around 1400 to 1450 actually helped France to have a much more stable political period because there everybody had stuff to do other than try to overthrow the king or kill their brother or eat snails and smoke cigarettes while wearing berets and carrying baguettes of bread everywhere.

I once saw a baguette in a cage.  I guess it was bread in captivity.

Yes, in the coming years at least half of the elite will either die or cease to be elite and have to drive Yugos® or Ford Escorts™ while working at JCPenney’s©.

There just aren’t enough chairs in the inner circle to go around.

So, we’ve got too many elites, which is one of Turchin’s factors that lead to societal breakdown.  What else leads to problems?  Turchin calls the next one, “Popular Immiseration” – bluntly, when life sucks for the common person.  Another term for this is Bidenomics.  Economic power of workers is disappearing, wages are going backwards when it comes to purchasing power, and jobs are more uncertain and awful.

To be fair to Biden, this was the trend even before he was selected, and was really the feeling that ushered in Trump.  Trump was and is a reaction to the crapfest that the economy has turned into, and is more or less predictable.  In 1956 Trump would have been a joke candidate, in 2000 Trump was a joke candidate, but by 2016 Trump was taken seriously because, to a large proportion of Americans, life is slowly becoming more miserable, daily.  The needed someone, anyone, to listen to them and stop the nonsense that the Left (and, to be fair, the Chamber of Commerce Right) is shoving down their throats.  Mittens Romney was just the same as the Left in his goals, he just used a different phrase to get there.

The last thing the American people wanted was ¡Jeb!  To give an example from another period in American history that was in crisis, Abraham Lincoln was another joke candidate that fell into a period where he could be elected.

I guess Mary Todd Lincoln said to Abe that day, “Would it kill you to take me to a play once in a while?”

Turchin discusses Lincoln’s election not in terms of slavery, but in terms of economic misery combined with lots of rich dudes.  Turchin adds in that the failing financial health of a country adds to this, lowering the legitimacy of the state.

These factors, Turchin notes, in every case that they’ve covered, always reach a breaking point within 200 years or so.  This is in line with Strauss and Howe The Fourth Turning and the theories of the unfortunately named Sir John Glubb.

End of Empires, PEZ, and Decadence

It’s here that the Turchin takes a bit of time to discuss the nature of the American Empire, circa 2023.  American power, he notes, isn’t based on religion.  It likewise isn’t based on a militaristic history – although we’ve elected generals as president, the power of the American Empire is and always has been commerce.  We sent trade ships in the 1800s across the world.  Genghis Khan didn’t create his empire with trade, he created it with the sword and the horse and by having sex with half of the women in Asia.  While the English used liberal amounts of gunpowder creating their empire, “I say, old chap, what are those Boer people doing sitting on our gold and diamonds?”, they were a commerce-based empire as well.

Me?  I was upset when I got a pack of sticky playing cards for Christmas – I found them difficult to deal with.

I’d agree with Turchin – American power has been economic and, like the British before us, created an economic empire.  The wealth from that economic empire thus created the ability for us to have really cool tanks and planes and aircraft carriers and nuclear weapons.  No bucks?  No Buck Rodgers.

Since it has been economics that created the empire, it’s economics that fuels it today:  America is built on economics, and the biggest controllers of that are . . . rich people.  As much as I’m in favor of capitalism (which is a lot) I can see that a system where the rich people get to make the rules is gonna suck for everyone else.

Turchin calls this the “Wealth Pump” – it’s the idea that the rules are set up not for the common citizen, but for the really rich dudes.  Whare are some of the components of this Wealth Pump?

  • Keeping a surplus of workers so that wages are lower. Unrestricted illegal (and legal) immigration?  It’s perfect to keep wages down.
  • What happens when we are need other workers than the illegals?  Let’s cut all trade barriers so that a programmer in the United States has to compete with a programmer in Bangladesh.  There won’t be any consequences from that, right?
  • Larger companies that have greater pull – Steve Jobs said, before he died, obviously, that he couldn’t make Apple® again – there were too many barriers in place. Many don’t realize that large number of “consumer” or “environmental” regulations are actually welcomed by large businesses – they’re a barrier to entry and competition.

This is what the Wealth Pump looks like.

That the impact of the Wealth Pump is misery is a given.  While (once upon a time) I was a libertarian, I’ve since moved on from that, as they’ve moved farther in support of this wealth pump.  Freedom doesn’t come with mere economic freedom, and it doesn’t come from only from freedom from government coercion.  Does it, in the end, matter if it is a group of elites in government or a group of elites at Google™ is the one censoring you to preserve the wealth pump?

Why is it so hard to start a relationship with a Social Justice Warrior?  They have such high double standards.

As noted above, per Turchin, the pool of people attempting to be elite has increased – ludicrously.  As I’ve mentioned before, it used to be that only 15% of people tried to go to college.  That’s probably the right number.  Now?  According to Turchin’s figures, over 65% of kids are trying to grasp that gold ring.

Again, the normal distribution matters, and that means at least 15% of people going to college have an IQ of less than 100.  This explains all of those Grievance Studies degrees, and Leftists pretending that education is a substitute for intellect while working behind the makeup counter at the department store.

Every time you smoke a cigarette, it takes seven minutes off your student loans.

Now, the number of doctorate degrees have tripled since 1970 (again, a Turchin number) and there’s no real sign that this is stopping, even though it’s clear that this is producing only frustrated people who have useless degrees.  Even useful degrees in STEM fields are, at this point, being overproduced in the United States compared to the number of available jobs.  Yet, the companies keep wanting the bring in foreigners on H1-B visas to take jobs that could be filled by actual Americans.

But the Americans would want a higher wage, and there would be less competition.  This would lower Google’s® profits.  This is, again, Turchin’s Wealth Pump in action.  Google© wants H1-B workers because they’re virtual slaves that they can bring in that would be happy to live four to a pod because it’s better than the monsoon-drenched mud hut in India that is consistently destroyed by volcanoes or communists or bird flu or whatever they have in India.

During COVID, gatherings of more than 260 million were banned in India.

As I talked about a post back, ideology was one of the pillars of a stable society.

Stability: On A Scale Of Zero To Drunken Uncle, How Bad Is The United States?

Turchin pegs the 1950’s as the time of greatest ideological stability in the United States.  People felt that (again, following Turchin’s list, which is similar to previous content here, so I don’t disagree much, though I add commentary to his list from p. 100):

  • Family was a man and a woman and kids. As I’ve discussed before, this is the atom of civilization, and has been since forever – other arrangements (polyandry, polygamy) tend to be unstable in large societies.  Men want a mate.  However, in 2023, the push is on to have “anything goes” as the basis for society.  Out of wedlock babies?  A scandal.
  • Men were men, women were women and men had men jobs and women had women jobs.   Now we can’t even define what a woman is.
  • Natural bodies are better. Tats were for sailors and .mil folks, and weird piercings were borderline trashy and foreign.
  • Belonging to a religion was normal, divorce and being an atheist meant you weren’t going to be elected unless . . . no, no unless. Atheists were simply not trusted in positions of public power.

But look what progress has brought us!  (Meme as found)

Turchin then talks about some of the things that kept the Wealth Pump in check – labor unions, minimum wages, progressive taxation, welfare, low immigration.  I’d disagree on the impact and general consensus on, say, welfare, but in general.  Many of those, however, coupled with a healthy export-focused economy with targeted tariffs created a situation where the middle class flourished and grew at the expense of the Elite.  The Left and the Right were more or less together on the goal.  It was Ike who warned us about the Wealth Pump, though Eisenhower described it this way:

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”  He was a Republican wanting to make sure that the military remained sane, and that the most invulnerable weapon system wasn’t one where parts were made in every congressional district.

Now?  Turchin notes, “The ideological center today resembles a country road in Texas, almost deserted save for the yellow stripe and dead armadillos.”

I wonder if they deserved to get hit by a car, if they’re karmadillos?

From the book:  “In order for stability to return, elite overproduction somehow needs to be taken care of – historically and typically by eliminating the surplus elites through massacre, imprisonment, emigration, or forced or voluntary downward social mobility.”  Whoa!  That’s radical, and I’m glad that Turchin is saying the quiet part out loud:  something wicked this way comes.  We all feel the tension, that’s why he sold thousands of copies of his book.

We know it’s coming.  And why.

It’s the Wealth Pump.  It’s not new, and it’s been the goal for a long, long time.  Turchin quotes a 1901 edition of The Bankers’ Magazine:

“When business men (sic) were single units, each working out his own success regardless of others in desperate competition, the men who controlled the political organization were supreme . . . .  But as the business of the country has learned the secret of combination, it is gradually subverting the power of the politician and rendering him subservient to its purposes . . . .  Every form of business is capable of similar consolidation, and if other industries imitate the example of that concerned with iron and steel, it is easy to see that eventually the government of a country where the productive forces are all mustered and drilled under the control of a few leaders, must become the mere tool of these forces.”

This is the goal, not a meme.

Again, wow.  I’ve said before I have a strong distrust of big government, and the groups that really benefit from regulations are big businesses since those regulations form a barrier to entry to smaller groups.  Who runs Bartertown?  Big businesses do – who do you think hires the regulators after they “retire” from the government?  If history is a guide, businesses are attempting to run government for their benefit – hence, the Wealth Pump.

Don’t believe me?  You’re soaking in it.  A longer quote from Turchin, (p. 129):

“The political scientist Martin Gilens . . . gathered a large data set – nearly 2000 policy issues between 1981 and 2002.  Each case matched a proposed policy change to a nation opinion survey asking a favor/oppose question about the initiative . . . .

“Statistical analysis . . . showed that the preferences of the poor had no effect on policy changes . . . . What is surprising is that there was no – zilch, nada – effect of the average voter.  The main effect on the direction of change was due to the policy preferences of the affluent.  There was also an additional effect of interest groups, the most influential ones being business-oriented lobbies.  Once you include in the statistical model the preferences of the top 10 percent and the interest groups, the effect of the commoners is statistically indistinguishable from zero.”

Yup.  They’re not listening.  They don’t care that the majority has always wanted to deport and deport promptly the unending stream of illegals invading our country.  That’s not good for business, so the Left has (oddly?) picked this up as a Social Justice Warrior© mantra:  “no human is illegal” meaning that they’re working to make actual workers, especially black workers, poorer.

SJW™?  It’s just another term for the intellectual elite in the pocket of big business.  Who would have thought that the SJW© would be on the same side as the military-industrial complex?

Stonetoss©, that’s who.  (All Stonetoss™ comics are used with permission.)

Why do Social Justice Warriors hate dentists?  They make teeth straight and white.

A guy on a tractor just drove by yelling about the end of everything.  I think it was Farmer Geddon.

I think that Turchin has proven that, at least in some circumstances, he can show when trouble is coming.   Again, I’d like to see his database and understand in greater detail how it works, but if you look at:

  • Every elite scrambling for position,
  • Every mechanism possible being found to extract another dollar from a consooooomer so that the Wealth Pump can be fed, and
  • the current graph of the interest payments that the United States will have to pay sooner rather than later, it’s clear:

There Be Dragons Here.

How the crisis unfolds, however, is dependent upon the structure of society itself, according to Turchin.  “ . . . we cannot understand social breakdown without a deep analysis of the power structures within societies.”  Turchin even notes this about Barbara Walter:  “This is where the analysis by Barbara Walter in How Civil Wars Start often becomes woefully inadequate, and sometimes outright naïve.”  He skipped the part where she eats lead paint chips with her avocado toast, but, hey.

Give Turchin his props:  he’s calling out mass immigration and stupid academics.  I think he might be especially fun to hang with after a few beers.

This is what A.I. thinks Turchin and I having a beer would look like.  Guess I’ll have to dig my mortarboard out.

But back to power structures.  Big Government is scary enough, but when Apple® or Google™ is holding the leash, it becomes even scarier.  I like capitalism, but what we have here is called by Turchin “Plutocracy” but I like the more common (in our circles) name of Kleptocracy.  That’s what it is, really.

Societal power is now, really, in lockstep with the Kleptocracy.  It has created this weird amalgamation of Leftist/Communist/Corporatist power.  At this point, Turchin attempts to analyze the power structures of the United States to guess at what the future might bring, noting that his work is, “nowhere near advanced enough to achieve such a feat of modeling.”

Honesty.

I love it.

I’m going to take an aside here based on comments I’ve had so far in this series of posts.  It isn’t communist or socialist to question the rules put in place by the Kleptocrats to pump more money to them.  We haven’t had true laissez-faire capitalist system in this country since the 1880s, at least.  Huge corporations are not laissez-faire – they’re government creations, and to be against them isn’t to be against capitalism.

I do think that we have the idea because a system has worked in the past that it just needs tweaks.  That is simply not the case – our system has brought us to where we are today.  Simple actions like having end-by dates on corporations, turning senators back to state-appointed positions, abolishing all Federal income tax and getting the primary funds for the central government from tariffs . . . radical ideas.  But we have to stop the wealth pump, and true libertarians should be all over this because domination over liberty from a corporation is no different than domination over liberty by a government.

End of digression.  Back to the book.

Why did the libertarian cross the road?  “Am I being detained?”

The most common outcome, Turchin notes, is that lots of elites (and wannabes) simply realize they can’t be elite anymore.  Obviously, this will be uncomfortable for many, many professors who now have to work 40 hours at Starbucks™ instead of handing out worthless anthropology and ancient Japanese literature degrees.

This doesn’t happen gradually.  It happens when the University closes.  As we’ve discussed before (link below on Seneca’s Cliff), things are built only slowly, but collapse in an instant.  The extreme case, which is now very, very much on the table is that the elite positions (and some of the wannabes) are eliminated as a result of Civil War 2.0.

The Economy – At Seneca’s Cliff?

 

Who will lead that war?  Probably someone on the fringe of the current Elite who is angry.  Why from the Elite?  They have connections and power that allow them to put together a credible alternative power structure fairly quickly.  Examples from our history?

George Washington was as rich and famous as Elon back in the day, and it wasn’t a bunch of poor dudes that ran either the Union or the Confederacy.

Of course, an alternative is to shut down the Wealth Pump.  I mean, it will be shut down one way or another, but if it’s done before things are in a ditch, it might be better, though I’m fairly certain the first wheel went into that ditch back before 1990.  Turchin notes that he thinks if we shut the Wealth Pump down now, well, that turns Elites into radicals in big numbers and will result in an even bloodier war.

Astrophysicists started a radical protest group:  Black Matter Lives.

From his study, the growth of violence and instability isn’t linear – it builds on itself like an epidemic – Turchin calls this the “virus of radicalism”.  Turchin notes that:  “As long as the power of revolutionary groups is less than the power of the state’s coercive apparatus, the overall level of violence can be suppressed to a low level.”

They want to stop the signal.  But there’s one lesson that even the Soviets learned:  you can’t stop the signal.

Why do the Elite so desperately want your guns?  It gives the average American citizen a real veto over intolerable actions by the government.  This is why the Left and Levis™ jeans want to take your modern sporting rifle:  it makes you a more compliant consoooomer.  And if they get the 2nd Amendment, the 1st won’t be far behind, because ideas like these are dangerous.

This explains all the effort in censoring places like this one.  The ideas here are dangerous, and oh, so sexy.

Turchin’s “everything as-is” scenario shows “an outbreak of serious violence during the 2020s and, if nothing is done to shut down the (Wealth P)ump, a repeat every fifty to sixty years.”  Civil wars are what turn radicals into moderates – von Clausewitz wrote about this centuries ago.  Wars are won when the will of the people to fight is erased.  Places like this one keep spirits high, and attack those whose goal is the destruction of our freedom and way of life.

I honestly hope Joe Biden gets better.  And recovers from his dementia, too.

Who else have they attacked?

Turchin, writing before Tucker Carlson was fired, said, “Carlson is interesting because he is the most outspoken antiestablishment critic operating within the corporate media.  Whereas media such as CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times, and The Washington Post are losing credibility, among the general population . . . Carlson is growing ever more popular.”

Now that, my friends, explains it all, and Turchin’s comments show the real reason Carlson was silenced, and Turchin notes (as I have opined in some places) that Tucker is the real nucleus of the Right.

Trump’s real sins had nothing to do with January 6, it had to do with him not starting wars and actually trying to stop immigration, which the Wealth Pump requires.

What does Turchin say that history tells us (p. 223-4)?

  • In 2/3 of cases, most of the Elite stopped being elite.
  • In 1/6 of cases, the Elite was “targeted for extermination.”
  • “The probability of ruler assassination was 40%.”
  • 75% of cases “ended in revolutions or civil wars or both.”
  • In 1/5 of cases, “the civil war dragged on for a century or longer.”
  • 60% of cases led to “the death of the state.”

Grim.  Really, really grim.

We are at the brink of a civil war.  I’ve been saying that for years now.  One branch of my family moved to the United States from Germany in 1890 because they saw a massive European war coming.  They left 25 years too soon.

Seeing what’s coming isn’t hard.  I can tell you the future in some instances.  If I walk out in front of a speeding bus, I’m going to die.  It’s not clairvoyance, it’s happening to us, right here and now.  Just as my family saw the European war that would be known as World War I coming, I am certain that we are on the steps to Civil War 2.0.

It took a lot to get this picture out of the A.I. – I can get the A.I. to draw everyone from Seinfeld, but it draws the line at Morgan Freeman.

I also cannot stress enough that Civil War 2.0 isn’t my wish, this is the data and there is, at this point, nothing anyone can do to stop it.  I believe the road ahead will be more terrible in some locations than many can even imagine.

Here be dragons.

I do still believe that on the other side, the torch of Liberty will still be burning brightly in a new world where what is True, Beautiful, and Good will be recognized as such.  Why?  Because in the end, Liberty wins, despite all of those who would try to steal it away – it burns in the hearts of all who I would call men and is loved deeply by all of those who I would call women.

Which does not include Barbara F. Walter and her fat, lead paint chip eating face.

It’s a rare book where I put it down, look at the conclusions, and say, “Damn, I wish I had written that book.”

Turchin brings it home.

If you like reading non-fiction and are a regular at Wilder Wealthy and Wise, I recommend you read this one, even though Turchin sucks at adding memes to his work.

The Only Thing You Need To Read Today: Wilder’s End Times Book Review: The Face Of The Crisis And The Aftermath

“If that’s the end of time, I got a front row seat with a big tub of buttered popcorn and a greasy half-live chicken leg.” – Anchorman 2:  The Legend Continues

A guy on a tractor just drove by yelling about the end of everything.  I think it was Farmer Geddon.

I think that Turchin has proven that, at least in some circumstances, he can show when trouble is coming.   Again, I’d like to see his database and understand in greater detail how it works, but if you look at

  • Every elite scrambling for position,
  • Every mechanism possible being found to extract another dollar from a consooooomer so that the Wealth Pump can be fed, and
  • the current graph of the interest payments that the United States will have to pay sooner rather than later, it’s clear:

There Be Dragons Here.

How the crisis unfolds, however, is dependent upon the structure of society itself, according to Turchin.  “ . . . we cannot understand social breakdown without a deep analysis of the power structures within societies.”  Turchin even notes this about Barbara Walter:  “This is where the analysis by Barbara Walter in How Civil Wars Start often becomes woefully inadequate, and sometimes outright naïve.”  He skipped the part where she eats lead paint chips with her avocado toast, but, hey.

Give Turchin his props:  he’s calling out mass immigration and stupid academics.  I think he might be especially fun to hang with after a few beers.

This is what A.I. thinks Turchin and I having a beer would look like.  Guess I’ll have to dig my mortarboard out.

But back to power structures.  Big Government is scary enough, but when Apple® or Google™ is holding the leash, it becomes even scarier.  I like capitalism, but what we have here is called by Turchin “Plutocracy” but I like the more common (in our circles) name of Kleptocracy.  That’s what it is, really.

Societal power is now, really, in lockstep with the Kleptocracy.  It has created this weird amalgamation of Leftist/Communist/Corporatist power.  At this point, Turchin attempts to analyze the power structures of the United States to guess at what the future might bring, noting that his work is, “nowhere near advanced enough to achieve such a feat of modeling.”

Honesty.

I love it.

I’m going to take an aside here based on comments I’ve had so far in this series of posts.  It isn’t communist or socialist to question the rules put in place by the Kleptocrats to pump more money to them.  We haven’t had true laissez-faire capitalist system in this country since the 1880s, at least.  Huge corporations are not laissez-faire – they’re government creations, and to be against them isn’t to be against capitalism.

I do think that we have the idea because a system has worked in the past that it just needs tweaks.  That is simply not the case – our system has brought us to where we are today.  Simple actions like having end-by dates on corporations, turning senators back to state-appointed positions, abolishing all Federal income tax and getting the primary funds for the central government from tariffs . . . radical ideas.  But we have to stop the wealth pump, and true libertarians should be all over this because domination over liberty from a corporation is no different than domination over liberty by a government.

End of digression.  Back to the book.

Why did the libertarian cross the road?  “Am I being detained?”

The most common outcome, Turchin notes, is that lots of elites (and wannabes) simply realize they can’t be elite anymore.  Obviously, this will be uncomfortable for many, many professors who now have to work 40 hours at Starbucks™ instead of handing out worthless anthropology and ancient Japanese literature degrees.

This doesn’t happen gradually.  It happens when the University closes.  As we’ve discussed before (link below on Seneca’s Cliff), things are built only slowly, but collapse in an instant.  The extreme case, which is now very, very much on the table is that the elite positions (and some of the wannabes) are eliminated as a result of Civil War 2.0.

The Economy – At Seneca’s Cliff?

Who will lead that war?  Probably someone on the fringe of the current Elite who is angry.  Why from the Elite?  They have connections and power that allow them to put together a credible alternative power structure fairly quickly.  Examples from our history?

George Washington was as rich and famous as Elon back in the day, and it wasn’t a bunch of poor dudes that ran either the Union or the Confederacy.

Of course, an alternative is to shut down the Wealth Pump.  I mean, it will be shut down one way or another, but if it’s done before things are in a ditch, it might be better, though I’m fairly certain the first wheel went into that ditch back before 1990.  Turchin notes that he thinks if we shut the Wealth Pump down now, well, that turns Elites into radicals in big numbers and will result in an even bloodier war.

Astrophysicists started a radical protest group:  Black Matter Lives.

From his study, the growth of violence and instability isn’t linear – it builds on itself like an epidemic – Turchin calls this the “virus of radicalism”.  Turchin notes that:  “As long as the power of revolutionary groups is less than the power of the state’s coercive apparatus, the overall level of violence can be suppressed to a low level.”

They want to stop the signal.  But there’s one lesson that even the Soviets learned:  you can’t stop the signal.

Why do the Elite so desperately want your guns?  It gives the average American citizen a real veto over intolerable actions by the government.  This is why the Left and Levis™ jeans want to take your modern sporting rifle:  it makes you a more compliant consoooomer.  And if they get the 2nd Amendment, the 1st won’t be far behind, because ideas like these are dangerous.

This explains all the effort in censoring places like this one.  The ideas here are dangerous, and oh, so sexy.

Turchin’s “everything as-is” scenario shows “an outbreak of serious violence during the 2020s and, if nothing is done to shut down the (Wealth P)ump, a repeat every fifty to sixty years.”  Civil wars are what turn radicals into moderates – von Clausewitz wrote about this centuries ago.  Wars are won when the will of the people to fight is erased.  Places like this one keep spirits high, and attack those whose goal is the destruction of our freedom and way of life.

I honestly hope Joe Biden gets better.  And recovers from his dementia, too.

Who else have they attacked?

Turchin, writing before Tucker Carlson was fired, said, “Carlson is interesting because he is the most outspoken antiestablishment critic operating within the corporate media.  Whereas media such as CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times, and The Washington Post are losing credibility, among the general population . . . Carlson is growing ever more popular.”

Now that, my friends, explains it all, and Turchin’s comments show the real reason Carlson was silenced, and Turchin notes (as I have opined in some places) that Tucker is the real nucleus of the Right.

Trump’s real sins had nothing to do with January 6, it had to do with him not starting wars and actually trying to stop immigration, which the Wealth Pump requires.

What does Turchin say that history tells us (p. 223-4)?

  • In 2/3 of cases, most of the Elite stopped being elite.
  • In 1/6 of cases, the Elite was “targeted for extermination.”
  • “The probability of ruler assassination was 40%.”
  • 75% of cases “ended in revolutions or civil wars or both.”
  • In 1/5 of cases, “the civil war dragged on for a century or longer.”
  • 60% of cases led to “the death of the state.”

Grim.  Really, really grim.

We are at the brink of a civil war.  I’ve been saying that for years now.  One branch of my family moved to the United States from Germany in 1890 because they saw a massive European war coming.  They left 25 years too soon.

Seeing what’s coming isn’t hard.  I can tell you the future in some instances.  If I walk out in front of a speeding bus, I’m going to die.  It’s not clairvoyance, it’s happening to us, right here and now.  Just as my family saw the European war that would known as World War I coming, I am certain that we are on the steps to Civil War 2.0.

It took a lot to get this picture out of the A.I. – I can get the A.I. to draw everyone from Seinfeld, but it draws the line at Morgan Freeman.

I also cannot stress enough that Civil War 2.0 isn’t my wish, this is the data and there is, at this point, nothing anyone can do to stop it.  I believe the road ahead will be more terrible in some locations than many can even imagine.  I do still believe that on the other side, the torch of Liberty will still be burning brightly in a new world where what is True, Beautiful, and Good will be recognized as such.  Why?  Because in the end, Liberty wins, despite all of those who would try to steal it away – it burns in the hearts of all who I would call men, and is loved deeply by all of those who I would call women.

Which does not include Barbara F. Walter and her fat, lead paint chip eating face.

It’s a rare book where I put it down, look at the conclusions, and say, “Damn, I wish I had written that book.”  Turchin brings it home.  If you like reading non-fiction and are a regular at Wilder Wealthy and Wise, I recommend you read this one, though Turchin sucks at adding memes to his work.

End Times Review, Part 2 – Defining the Dragon

“Right.  We are consumers. We are byproducts of a lifestyle obsession.  Murder, crime, poverty?  These things don’t concern me.  What concerns me are celebrity magazines, television with 500 channels, some guy’s name on my underwear.” – Fight Club

Why is it so hard to start a relationship with a Social Justice Warrior?  They have such high double standards.

A general note:  The Civil War 2.0 Weather Report would normally be on Monday.  Due to getting this post finished, it will likely be next Wednesday before the CWWR comes out.  It will still be wonderful and fresh as daises on a fresh daisy ranch.  I will also (likely Tuesday?) post a combined version of this book review stitched together, so we’ll have a very rare Tuesday post.  I’m doing that so that if someone wants to read it from start to finish, well, there it is. It will be slightly different for continuity and error correction. 

When last we left the impending disaster of the 21st Century, we were talking about Turchin’s theory that Elite overproduction was a primary driver in causing societies to disintegrate like records of voter irregularities in swing states in 2020.

The pool of people attempting to be elite has increased – ludicrously.  As I’ve mentioned before, it used to be that only 15% of people tried to go to college.  That’s probably the right number.  Now?  According to Turchin’s figures, over 65% of kids are trying to grasp that gold ring.

Again, the normal distribution matters, and that means at least 15% of people going to college have an IQ of less than 100.  This explains all of those Grievance Studies degrees, and Leftists pretending that education is a substitute for intellect while working behind the makeup counter at the department store.

Every time you smoke a cigarette, it takes seven minutes off your student loans.

Now, the number of doctorate degrees have tripled since 1970 (again, a Turchin number) and there’s no real sign that this is stopping, even though it’s clear that this is producing only frustrated people who have useless degrees.  Even useful degrees in STEM fields are, at this point, being overproduced in the United States compared to the number of available jobs.  Yet, the companies keep wanting the bring in foreigners on H1-B visas to take jobs that could be filled by actual Americans.

But the Americans would want a higher wage, and there would be less competition.  This would lower Google’s® profits.  This is, again, Turchin’s Wealth Pump in action.  Google© wants H1-B workers because they’re virtual slaves that they can bring in that would be happy to live four to a pod because it’s better than the monsoon-drenched mud hut in India that is consistently destroyed by volcanoes or communists or bird flu or whatever they have in India.

During COVID, gatherings of more than 260 million were banned in India.

As I talked about stability a few posts back, ideology was one of the pillars of a stable society.  Turchin pegs the 1950’s as the time of greatest ideological stability in the United States.  People felt that (again, following Turchin’s list, which is similar to previous content here, so I don’t disagree much, though I add commentary to his list from p. 100):

  • Family was a man and a woman and kids. As I’ve discussed before, this is the atom of civilization, and has been since forever – other arrangements (polyandry, polygamy) tend to be unstable in large societies.  Men want a mate.  However, in 2023, the push is on to have “anything goes” as the basis for society.  Out of wedlock babies?  A scandal.
  • Men were men, women were women and men had men jobs and women had women jobs.   Now we can’t even define what a woman is.
  • Natural bodies are better. Tats were for sailors and .mil folks, and weird piercings were borderline trashy and foreign.
  • Belonging to a religion was normal, divorce and being an atheist meant you weren’t going to be elected unless . . . no, no unless. Atheists were simply not trusted in positions of public power.

But look what progress has brought us!  (Meme as found)

Turchin then talks about some of the things that kept the Wealth Pump in check – labor unions, minimum wages, progressive taxation, welfare, low immigration.  I’d disagree on the impact and general consensus on, say, welfare, but in general.  Many of those, however, coupled with a healthy export-focused economy with targeted tariffs created a situation where the middle class flourished and grew at the expense of the Elite.  The Left and the Right were more or less together on the goal.  It was Ike who warned us about the Wealth Pump, though Eisenhower described it this way:

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”  He was a Republican wanting to make sure that the military remained sane, and that the most invulnerable weapon system wasn’t one where parts were made in every congressional district.

Now?  Turchin notes, “The ideological center today resembles a country road in Texas, almost deserted save for the yellow stripe and dead armadillos.”

I wonder if they deserved to get hit by a car, if they’re karmadillos?

From the book:  “In order for stability to return, elite overproduction somehow needs to be taken care of – historically and typically by eliminating the surplus elites through massacre, imprisonment, emigration, or forced or voluntary downward social mobility.”  Whoa!  That’s radical, and I’m glad that Turchin is saying the quiet part out loud:  something wicked this way comes.  We all feel the tension, that’s why he sold thousands of copies of his book.

We know it’s coming.  And why.

It’s the Wealth Pump.  It’s not new, and it’s been the goal for a long, long time.  Turchin quotes a 1901 edition of The Bankers’ Magazine:

“When business men were single units, each working out his own success regardless of others in desperate competition, the men who controlled the political organization were supreme . . . .  But as the business of the country has learned the secret of combination, it is gradually subverting the power of the politician and rendering him subservient to its purposes . . . .  Every form of business is capable of similar consolidation, and if other industries imitate the example of that concerned with iron and steel, it is easy to see that eventually the government of a country where the productive forces are all mustered and drilled under the control of a few leaders, must become the mere tool of these forces.”

This is the goal, not a meme, but this meme is as-found.

Again, wow.  I’ve said before I have a strong distrust of big government, and the groups that really benefit from regulations are big businesses since those regulations form a barrier to entry to smaller groups.  Who runs Bartertown?  Big businesses do – who do you think hires the regulators after they “retire” from the government?  If history is a guide, businesses are attempting to run government for their benefit – hence, the Wealth Pump.

Don’t believe me?  You’re soaking in it.  A longer quote from Turchin, (p. 129):

“The political scientist Martin Gilens . . . gathered a large data set – nearly 2000 policy issues between 1981 and 2002.  Each case matched a proposed policy change to a nation opinion survey asking a favor/oppose question about the initiative. . . .

“Statistical analysis . . . showed that the preferences of the poor had no effect on policy changes.. . . . What is surprising is that there was no – zilch, nada – effect of the average voter.  The main effect on the direction of change was due to the policy preferences of the affluent.  There was also an additional effect of interest groups, the most influential ones being business-oriented lobbies.  Once you include in the statistical model the preferences of the top 10 percent and the interest groups, the effect of the commoners is statistically indistinguishable from zero.”

Proof in a graph that voters don’t matter, since Brexit was about immigration.

Yup.  They’re not listening.  They don’t care that the majority has always wanted to deport, and deport promptly the unending stream of illegals invading our country.  That’s not good for business, so the Left has (oddly?) picked this up as a Social Justice Warrior© mantra:  “no human is illegal” meaning that they’re working to make actual workers, especially black workers, poorer.

SJW™?  It’s just another term for the intellectual elite in the pocket of big business.  Who would have thought that the SJW© would be on the same side as the military-industrial complex?

Stonetoss©, that’s who.  (All Stonetoss™ comics are used with permission.)

Why do Social Justice Warriors hate dentists?  They make teeth straight and white.

Part three of this review hits on Monday.  And it’s a doozy – you won’t want to miss it.

Stability: On A Scale Of Zero To Drunken Uncle, How Bad Is The United States?

“As a result, our planet’s core became unstable.” – Man of Steel

I was on a horse being chased by a lion, and on my left was a giraffe.  I decided to stop drinking and get off the carousel. 

I’ve been giving a lot of thought to what makes a country stable, recently.  I just can’t figure out why the idea of civilizational collapse keeps popping up in my mind, but, it does.

Why does a country remain stable?  Not wealthy, but stable.

One rudimentary idea is commonality.  Commonality of what, exactly?  Be careful, this gets progressively more controversial as we go down the list and moves from “Taco Bell® mild sauce” to “Scorpion Chili Reaper Death™”.

As nearly as I can figure it, three things.  There are more, but I think history has shown that these three things, when held in common, produce the most stable societies:

Religion.  I know that most readers live in the United States, which was founded on freedom from state religion.  That way Pennsylvania could choose to make Episcopalianism the state religion.  Regardless of that, the United States was historically very much a Christian nation, as in historically 90% plus, and in “you can’t get a mortgage unless your pastor vouches for your” Christian.

I have standards.  I won’t talk publicly about my sects life.

Have divisions among Christian sects caused difficulty?  Certainly.  Look at Europe post-Martin Luther and the religious wars that followed.  There are even problems within sects, given what I once saw a beheading at a Methodist potluck dinner over a stolen potato salad recipe.  To be fair, the potato salad was really, really good.  I think it was the mustard.

But back to American politics:  when JFK was running for president, there was a strong feeling that he wouldn’t be a good president because he was Catholic.  Why?  Because Catholics had to obey the Pope, and JFK would have something other than the best interests of the American people at heart – the orders of a foreign Pope.  After JFK, religion seemed to not matter so much in a presidential candidate, especially after Bill Clinton, a member of the 1st Congregation of If It Feels Good, Do It (Reformed), was elected.

Can people of different religions live together?  Sometimes, especially if the religions in question aren’t, well, Islam and Christianity.  Or Islam and Judaism.  Or Islam and Buddhism.  Or . . . hmm, I’m seeing a pattern here.

Is a radical Islamic cowboy a yeehawdist?

It’s weird when I bring up a topic that I know is going to be contentious and I mention religion first on the list of controversial topics, but that should tell you about the minefield that follows.

The second leg of a stable society is Ideology.  If we all believe the world through the same framework, that helps to create stability.  A bad example of that is North Korea.  North Korea is actually a really, really stable country for several reasons.  Do they share the same religion?  Certainly they do – the worship of Kim Jong Un.

They also share the same ideology.  Do all of them like it?  I’m fairly certain that the answer is no, but for most of them it is the only ideology they know, and the only ideology they’ve been taught.  They might see problems, but they have no particular framework where they could even discuss them.  If you asked them what they thought about Kim, they’d say, “I can’t complain”.

Shared ideology allowed he Soviet Union to live long past the best-by date printed on the carton for several reasons – again, it was the only real ideology presented, and second, through the 20th Century Russia went from a Czar and a bunch of peasants to a nation with nukes and a pretty good spaceflight program that the German scientists they captured gave them.  I mean, our Germans were better, but they still had pretty good Germans.

Remember, to an orphan, every selfie is a family photo.

How big was ideology in the United States?  My grandfather-in-law was nearly 95 when we went to a meeting.  They asked us all to stand for the prayer.  He sat.  No one thought anything of it.  When it came time to give the pledge, though, he struggled to his feet to stand.

He had an ideology – and it was the United States and the 8th Army Air Corps, specifically the one that Ronald Reagan talked about in his speeches.  That ideology, his Civic Nationalism, was so strong in him that it was even stronger than his religion and gravity.

Ideology really is at fault for the Revolutionary War and the Civil War – both of them were from a fairly homogeneous population base, but the major difference was ideology.  In the Civil War, especially, the ideology was one of an honor-culture (the South) versus the Puritan culture of the North.  The North knows how to do iced tea, and the South knows how to do biscuits and gravy.

Outside of food, the South chaffed against the Puritan leanings of the North, and that ended up in war, because that’s what happens when you have a people whose culture is based on honor pushed back up against the wall.  Because the religions and ethnicity of the sides were similar, the result was a nation that could be knit back together rather rapidly.

Can I tell you what ethnicity Napoleon was?  Course I can.

Oh, yeah, ethnicity.  The final leg of the stool is ethnicity.  See!  I told you it was going to get progressively more radioactive.

The long period of stability that the United States has experienced (with the exception of the Civil War) provided a false narrative – the idea that the United States is a proposition nation, and that everyone who came here would be assimilated and become American.

This is demonstrably false.

I still maintain that it takes three generations for a new immigrant family to really be assimilated, minimum.  If Mom and Dad aren’t willing to name their kid Brandon instead of Hans or Abdullah or Chaim, they really haven’t reached American status yet.  That used to be called assimilation, and it used to be generally considered to be good.

But not in 2023.  Back in the ‘teen, Tom Brokaw had to apologize for suggesting that Hispanics had to work harder at assimilating to American culture.  He had violated a new Leftist commandment that “Absolutely Everyone Doing Absolutely Anything” was defined as American.

Oh, and America doesn’t have a culture, bigot.

Of the three, I think ethnicity is generally (though not always) the strongest.  The Danes might not agree on everything, but do they agree that someone who moved to Denmark from Afghanistan isn’t Danish.  I could move to Japan, have kids there, and I would never be Japanese and neither would my kids.

All of this leads to what?

China is built on stability – it has a common religion – Communism, a common ideology, “what Xi said”, and a common ethnicity.  When people point to a coming Chinese collapse, I point to articles from the last 30 years that have said the same thing.  My bet:  China is stable – it may not prosper, but it will endure.

Ireland?  Not so much.  It used to be homogeneous in ethnicity, religion, and ideology, if ideology can be summarized by the statement “drinking and fighting a bit”.  But with a constant influx of immigrants who apparently have the ideology of “stabbing Irish kids is fine” it is clear that the future of Ireland is in doubt, less so if they start drinking and fighting a lot more.

What’s Irish and stays outside all year?  Paddy O’Furniture.

Finally, on the other side of the spectrum, there’s the United States.  Viewed through this model, it’s clear:  we have lost our common religion – in 2009, 77% of Americans were Christian.  By 2019?  Down to 65% (Pew®).

Ideology?  The United States had been relatively homogeneous with respect to ideology, too.  Compare the 1950s to the Leftist onslaught we’ve seen 70 years later.  We are a nation divided ideologically.

Ethnicity?  Thanks to the 1965 Immigration Act along with an amazing disregard for borders over the last 30 years, the United States has experienced an amazing increase in the amount of foreign-born people here, and that amount is estimated at 15%, but I’m betting that number is far closer to 25% because I believe the number of illegals is greatly understated in official numbers.

None, exactly zero, of these indicators lead me to believe that the United States will be stable for the next 30 years or can continue to exist as a coherent country.  I’ve mentioned before that I thought the earliest dates for Bad Thing to happen were in the next 2 or 3 years.  My prediction of everything breaking apart remains at 2032 or so, but I see no hope, at all, of the United States existing beyond 2040 unless a Caesar appears at the point of crisis or unless millions of immigrants are sent via trebuchet back to whatever place they came from.

To be clear, I don’t wish for any of this, this is just what every trend is leading towards, and this model is an “in progress” model.  Your additions are welcome in the comments.

The good news?

I hear the Methodists now take a hard line on potato salad beheadings, which is odd, since they’re normally not against anything.

Friday Movies. Because I said So. 1986 in Review.

“Captain, there be whales here.”  Star Trek:  Search For Whales

Has A.I. even seen these movies?  All art for today’s post is A.I. generated, maybe after it or I (or both of us) had some drinks.

Here are my picks for the best movies of the year 1986 that I remember fondly now.  Why?  Why not.  It’s Friday, and there’s certainly enough heavy stuff going on, and each of the movies on the list below, in its genre, is better than anything made this decade.  In several cases, the movie might not have been great, but it was one I watched that year and felt it was memorable.

They are in alphabetical order, which really implies no particular order since the starting letter of the movie has nothing to do with how good the movie is, with the exception of Zardoz, which features Sean Connery in an orange diaper, rendering your arguments moot.

If Pixar® had done Aliens . . .

AliensAliens starts with A, so James Cameron gets to go first.  The Terminator was really his “can James make movies” tryout so that he could make Aliens.  Aliens took a horror franchise and transformed it into an amazing science fiction action movie.  The great part about all of this is that it all looked so very real in a world without digital effects.  Too bad no one ever made a sequel to this.  It could have been great.  It’s also sad that James Cameron retired.  To think, if he hadn’t retired, he might be making stupid movies about blue aliens.

I guess there’s an admission preference for illegal aliens.

Back to School – Rodney Dangerfield.  Girls in bikinis.  The Triple Lindy.  This movie was set back when you could make fun of everyone.  And Rodney did, including Kurt Vonnegut, to his face.  The plot is simple, millionaire decides to go back to college, has his assistants do his homework.  Bonus points for the line “Bring us a pitcher of beer every seven minutes until somebody passes out.  Then bring one every ten minutes.”

Does that look like Kurt Russell to you?  Stupid A.I.

The Best of Times – Kurt Russell and Robin Williams.  In a movie.  Together.  Yes, this happened.  The result was a great comedy about reliving the past and trying to make up for that mistake you made a decade ago.  A simple movie about simpler times, and very funny.  How could it have been better?  It would have been better if John Carpenter had made it.

I don’t watch anime, but I might watch this.

Big Trouble in Little China – Kurt Russell with John Carpenter directing one of my favorite movies of all time.  Why?  Because this movie is just about the textbook in what to do when your girlfriend and truck have both been kidnapped by an ancient, cursed, Chinese wizard.  It’s got everything: dashing heroes, wimmins to be rescued, magic, kung fu, semi fu, butterfly knife fu, and balls of green flame fu.  Green flame!

Working title:  The Color of Rain

The Color of Money – I’ve only seen this the one time, and probably won’t watch it again, so this is a review based on remembering it from nearly 40 years ago.  I was on the left side of the theater, so I don’t think I got the best stereo so, you know.  This wasn’t a great movie, but it really captured the 1980s, what with Tom Cruise and Dustin Hoffman making an epic road trip . . . what?  This is the billiards movie with Paul Newman and I’m really thinking about Rain Man?  Oh.  Take this one off the list.

I think they might need a drummer.

Crossroads – Before the Internet, the story of Robert Johnson selling his soul on the crossroads for musical success was passed in the school hallways by someone who half heard it.  That’s where I heard it, and, weirdly, most of the details were right.  This movie came out after I’d heard about it, and it was great.  Ralph Macchio, even though I think he was forty or fifty years old (the man does not age, I think he sleeps in Tupperware® so he doesn’t spoil) when he did this movie did a great job as a kid who wanted to learn the blues.  Guitar solos at the end?  Pure 80s.  Sadly, this movie was successful enough that the scriptwriter wrote Young Guns and Young Guns II, proving that he probably had first-hand experience at the crossroads.

Not A.I. generated.  Unless we’re living in a simulation.

From Beyond – If you don’t like horror, just skip ahead.  Bringing H.P. Lovecraft to the screen is hard, because sometimes his writing glossed over the details.  From Beyond brings the horror of Lovecraft to the screen, the thought that there is a universe just next door that wants to get to us, and the things it wants to do . . . aren’t pleasant.  Except for Barbara Crampton in a leather bikini.  That was pleasant.

If only Batman® could have saved the American car industry.

Gung Ho – Michael Keaton is now an “actor” after playing Batman®.  Back in 1986, he was a guy who was great in comedies.  Gung Ho is the story of a car manufacturing plant that was closed, and the fight to get a Japanese company to come and reopen it and the comedic cultural clash that follows.  This was the 1980s, and back then the Japanese scared the heck out of America, since it looked like they could do all of the things we couldn’t do anymore:  build great cars, be Japanese, have discipline, create anime, and have Micheal Keaton in a comedy.

Looks like the kid is trying to decapitate himself.

Highlander – Sean Connery plays a Spaniard with a Scottish accent, while the French actor(who didn’t speak English) Christopher Lambert played a Scottish guy with a French accent.  Whatever.  It worked.  A group of immortals move through time to the time where they have to gather and try to decapitate each other.  Except in churches.  And the movie opens at a professional wrestling match.  It really, really sounds silly, but it’s a powerful movie that, sadly, there was never ever a sequel to.

Looks like the Village People® are here, too.

Iron Eagle – This movie taught me that it’s easy to learn to fly an F-16 in a montage that just lasts a few minutes, and that everyone flies better if they strap a cassette player to their thigh and play rock and roll while you shoot down MiGs.  I believe that this is the current air strategy of Ukraine, since in their latest aid request they wanted Louis Gossett, Jr. to train their pilots, and wanted some Sony Walkman™ cassette players.  Okay, this wasn’t a great movie.  And I haven’t seen it since 1986.  But if I ever need to fly an F-16?  I’m gonna rent this one on VHS.

Has there ever been a more 1980s picture?  I think not.

Maximum Overdrive – This movie makes no real sense.  It was based on a Stephen King short story, and in the 1980s, movies regularly appeared that were based on the shopping lists a cocaine-crazed Stephen King would write before blacking out for the evening.  In this case, a cocaine-crazed Stephen King also directed it, before passing out for the evening.  What happens?  Trucks and cars come to life, and you know what that means.  An AC/DC® soundtrack.  It’s not a horror movie, it’s really a 98 minute music video that doesn’t take itself seriously.  I watched with the kids a few years back, and they laughed, a lot.

Okay, maybe this is more 1980s.

One Crazy Summer – This is an flick about John Cusack (yes, I know now he’s an insufferable tool who blocked me on Twitter®) and Demi Moore (yes, I know now she’s an insufferable tool) in a romantic comedy that’s got a flair for the absurd.  Bobcat Goldthwait stuck in a Godzilla® costume destroying a model of a planned development in front of the investors?  Priceless.

Okay, this one was difficult to get to – the A.I. just hated doing it.

Ruthless People – This was a Zucker brothers movie, so it’s that kind of humor.  Bette Midler is an awful person who gets kidnapped, and Danny DeVito is her awful husband who doesn’t want her back.  It’s the first movie I saw Bill Pullman in before he was elected president after being a hero fighter pilot (he probably watched Iron Eagle to learn how) and killed the aliens on Independence Day.

Probably not far off from the real poster.

Short Circuit – Alley Sheedy gets a sentient robot that won’t shut up, and comic hijinks are the result, rather than it plugging into DARPANET and annihilating the human race.  This one, thankfully, is spared a cocaine-crazed Stephen King.

Well, I have no idea what this hot mess is, but I couldn’t pass it up.

Star Trek IV:  Whales In Space – Yeah, I know that’s not the official title, but when I write that, you know which one I’m talking about.  This wasn’t the high point of the Star Trek movies, that was Wrath of Khan.  But it did involve time travel to 1986 America, and Kirk going on a pizza date with a marine biologist and going home to a stolen Klingon® vessel.  I’m beginning to get the idea that 1986 was a year where people weren’t afraid to be a bit silly.

That’s it.  Are these the best movies, ever?  No.  But how often do you see good comedies since, oh, 2016?  Only three of the movies above were sequels or part of a “cinematic universe”.  A lot of them were experiments that lost money, or made Sean Connery do silly things, like act with French people.

Will we see another year of movies like this?  Probably not in my lifetime.  I’m especially glad they haven’t made any new Star Trek since 2005.

Civil War 2.0 Weather Report, Violence Is On The Menu

“I don’t like violence, Tom. I’m a businessman.” – The Godfather

People say violence is never an option, but when I’m in a room with a Kardashian, well, let’s just say it’s option number one.

  1. Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
  2. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
  3. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  4. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
  5. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
  6. Open War.

Volume V, Issue 6

All memes except for the clock and graphs are “as found”.

This is a moving situation, and things are changing quickly.  The advice remains.  Avoid crowds.  Get out of cities.  Now.  A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue:  Front Matter – New Achievement Unlocked:  Acceptable Violence – Violence and Censorship Update – Biden’s Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Are We At War? Revisited – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month.  I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues.  Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 820 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.

New Achievement Unlocked:  Violence Acceptable

One of the hallmarks of the countdown to Civil War 2.0 has always been:  Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.  We’ve debated about where to put it, but it’s been there since the very start of the countdown/index.  This month a Constant Reader sent me a link to American Partisan where the article discussed exactly that (LINK).

When a high government official formerly in charge of extrajudicial executions calls for the extrajudicial execution of an elected official to a national body, you might live in a banana republic.

  • 31% of Trump supporters and 24% of Biden supporters indicated that democracy is no longer viable.
  • 41% of Biden supporters and 38% of Trump supporters thought it was acceptable to use violence to stop their opponents.

Yes, I know that technically we’re not a democracy anyway because the Founding Fathers felt that was little more than mob rule, but it looks like a huge chunk of people are flat done with the idea of voting with ballots and are ready to start voting with fists, clubs, and bullets.

Except against women.  Or people who identify as women.  Or Leftists. But I repeat myself.  

This, sadly, is something that many have expected as the government loses the legitimacy that it enjoyed during most of the history of the country, with only 16% (according to Pew®) trusting the government to do way is right most of the time.

As I’ve mentioned before, some of the best advice I’ve ever heard about divorce was, “If you don’t want a divorce, don’t talk about one.”  Here, large numbers of the population are currently contemplating divorce, and contemplating not using a lawyer to get what they want, since 41% of Trump supporters and 30% of Biden supporters are in favor of secession based on political lines.

Although there is a flaw in the Leftist strategy.

Even when I started this blog, that seemed unlikely.  Although the maps show Red states and Blue states, the reality is that in 2016, many of them were purple – a roughly equal mixture of both.

Now we see that people really are moving from one state to another for purely political reasons.  If you’re on the Right, why live in a state that will criminalize you because you own guns?  If you’re on the Left, why live in a state that won’t let you kill all the babies you want to kill?

Violence and Censorship Update

Hillary Clinton, that bastion of common sense and moderation, noted this month that people who supported Donald Trump need to be “formally deprogrammed”.  If you think the Left is up for a truce and to forgive, that would be a mistake.

Proving that a Leftist is as loyal as a scorpion, well, read the note below.

But, good news for her!  She can update her Tinder® profile.

In a further example that we are at an 8. on the steps to Civil War 2.0 (list above, more story below) Portland has stopped trying to look good for a date, and is now at the stage that they’re eating frosting straight from the plastic container with a spoon.  The cops have given up.

The EU wants Elon Musk to censor comments on X®.  The only problem?  Like taking a woman to a restaurant, the want Elon to figure what they want him to censor without telling him.

Regardless of how you feel about, well, anyone, the First Amendment exists.  Except for certain subjects as the former governor of Mumbai points out below:

And Ron’s not far behind:

Lastly, Canadians seem to enjoy a few freedoms.  At least today:

Biden’s Misery Index

Let’s take a look to see how we’ve done this month . . . .

Yup, up again.  Looks like Biden is going for the record.  Who says he never gets anything done?  I hear he was even on hand to thank one of his financial supporters.

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time.  They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings.  As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index.  On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Violence is up again, again slightly – I was expecting more during a long, hot summer.  I’m guessing that people don’t even notice it anymore.  Think San Fran will be paying for cops anytime soon?

Political Instability:

Up is more unstable, up.  I expect December to be a time when this starts to head upward, significantly, because, bears.

Economic:

Economic numbers are swinging back down again this month, and a bit more in October – I expected more.  Well, we’ll see.  Maybe there will be a miracle?

Illegal Aliens:

The biggest number, ever, in the history of the country, an unending flood.  Read Enoch Powell’s speech.

Are We At War? Revisited

Last month’s Weather Report topic was a simple question:  Are we at war?  The reason for this is that a Constant Reader said I was obviously stoned, because the war was obviously already going.

Another Constant Reader responded to this response as noted above that I was stoned for thinking we were closer to war than they did, and I thought it was a more than fair assertion that deserved a response:  “Not 8.  Not anywhere close to that.”

Well, as to point 6., where people are avoiding the other side, this is an ongoing process I noted that began years ago.  I have several friends that have specifically decided to move away from Leftist hotbeds for exactly that reason.  My own brother, John Wilder, is currently behind enemy lines in the Reddest area of a very blue state.  He’ll be moving before too long to a very, very Red State where he is no longer considered to be an extremist.

He does, however, have a great lawn.

Next, to point 7.  If anyone doesn’t think that organized violence is occurring regularly, they need to revisit their news sources.  Cities, even in Red States, are being run not by cops, not by commissions, and not by mayors.  Those cities are being run by district attorneys that are not prosecuting criminals and are sanctioning the violence.  It’s bad enough that it’s normalized – the group protests, riots, and mob thefts that are occurring with the tacit approval of the “justice” system takes us to an 8.  Reminder, this Civil War won’t have masses of armed troops to inflict the damage, especially at the start.

To get from 8. to 10. could happen in as little as two weeks – imagine another blatantly stolen election in 2024 . . . that might be the spark.  As shown in the first story, polls indicate that a growing number of people no longer want peace at all costs, and the peace that flows from the barrel of a gun would be quite acceptable.

It’s odd when the Muppet® doesn’t have the silliest hair.

Are we at an 8.?  I think so.  It doesn’t get to a 10. until the Right starts to fight back.  I do appreciate the feedback, since this is a work in progress, and it also nudges me to explain what the heck my reasoning is.  YMMV.

The fact that two readers with valid points make the opposite argument makes me think I’m close to the right answer.  We are very, very near.

LINKS

As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky.  Thanks so much, Ricky!!

BAD GUYS

https://twitter.com/i/status/1718365747414761547

https://twitter.com/i/status/1720452778508595253

https://twitter.com/i/status/1718594209450480043

https://twitter.com/i/status/1719551215858798957

https://twitter.com/i/status/1715239983911452861

https://twitter.com/i/status/1715236903853691077

https://twitter.com/i/status/1714199598871228535

GOOD GUY?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1716945256804200575

ONE GUY

https://twitter.com/UR_Ninja/status/1716227124275626374

BODY COUNT

https://citizenfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/biden-state-illegals.jpg

https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_9d841124-7449-11ee-af4a-af115ad29337.html

https://twitter.com/i/status/1707919466154082771

https://twitter.com/Jeanne2999432/status/1719039832633041054?t=Nd5Phexy5Xh6W1OcG6-yIw&s=19

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/axis.JPG?itok=tZ4zVVGS
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/texas/article-12663663/Venezuelas-worst-gangsters-criminals-cross-border-carrying-orders-dictator-Maduro.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12699675/US-border-China-migrants-caravan.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12666301/Migrants-NYC-costing-taxpayer-5BN.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12484069/US-deaths-mortality-richest-countries.html

https://tnc.news/2023/10/26/assisted-suicide-in-canada-2022-1/

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4289645-bring-back-the-draft-a-divisive-battle-may-loom-over-any-major-war/

VOTE COUNT

https://citizenfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/emerald-fraud.jpeg

http://onlyinbridgeport.com/wordpress/watch-video-captures-gomes-supporters-absentee-ballot-dumping/

https://thefederalist.com/2023/10/05/10-ways-democrats-are-already-rigging-the-2024-election/

https://www.emerald.tv/p/georgias-election-officials-are-getting

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fthefederalist.com%2F2023%2F10%2F31%2Franked-choice-voting-is-the-monster-under-the-bed-of-american-elections%2F

https://thefga.org/research/ranked-choice-voting-partisan-plot-to-disrupt-elections/

CIVIL WAR

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12589871/mexico-cartel-texas-invasion-border-war-todd-bensman.html

https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-civil-war-reaching-boiling-point-1840367

https://news.yahoo.com/large-portion-americans-doubt-democracy-160659069.html

https://jonathanturley.org/2023/10/23/americas-crisis-of-faith-new-poll-reveals-more-americans-are-rejecting-the-constitution-and-embracing-violence/

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-10-12/civil-war-5-4-3-2

https://www.governing.com/context/what-would-a-national-divorce-look-like