The Big Short Part 2: AI Boogaloo?

“Well, we pay roughly 80 to 90 million each year, which is high but I was the first to do this trade. Watch, it will pay. I may have been early, but I’m not wrong.” – The Big Short

I don’t think it’s true that Michael Burry is a giant psychic who is skeptical of high stock prices, since that would make him a tall medium short. (all memes and Tweets as-found)

“Sometimes, we see bubbles. Sometimes, there is something to do about it. Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play.” – Michael Burry, October 31, 2025

Ah, Michael Burry. I love him for several reasons. First, the man who turned the financial Armageddon of the Great Recession into a personal piggy bank. While the rest of Wall Street was busy high-fiving over adjustable-rate mortgages like they were the next Beanie Babies™, Burry had it right.

Beanie there, done that.

If life’s a casino, Burry was the guy who spotted the rigged roulette wheel, bet it all against red, and walked away repeatedly tossing the croupier’s pinky ring in the air. But more on that.

Let’s rewind the tape, because Burry’s backstory isn’t just a hedge fund horror story; it’s the stuff of legend. Born in 1971, Burry was that kid dissecting frog guts and getting into high school early, and leaving it earlier than a Chicago inner-city kid, but instead of hitting the streets, Burry hit Vanderbilt med school by age 19. He got an ophthalmology residency at Stanford, because nothing says “future financial legend” like peering into eyeballs.

But Burry’s peepers were always fixed on the fine print of balance sheets, not dilated pupils. In 1997, he launched a value-investing blog that read like Warren Buffett’s fever dream crossed with a pathology report. By 2000, he’d parlayed his blog into Scion Capital™, a $600 million fund where he played the markets like a man solving a Rubik’s Cube® blindfolded.

Then came the subprime saga during the Housing Bubble.

It was 2005, and America was drunk on easy credit. Flippers were flipping houses, banks bundling toxic multiple hundred-thousand-dollar home loans made to $14,000 a year illegal alien strawberry pickers.

Yes, this happened.

They called these triple-A quality financial treasures. Why not jump in? Everyone from soccer moms to strip-mall moguls mortgaging their McMansions to the hilt.

The cheapest parts of the house should be the roof and exterior paint, since they’re on the house.

Burry?

He saw the rot. He pored over mortgage prospectuses like they were Penthouse centerfolds, spotting the emperor’s new clothes in the form of adjustable-rate mortgages that would reset into huge payments. I was offered a mortgage of over seven times my salary.

I asked the banker, “Why are you offering this? I can’t afford to pay that.”

“I’m required to tell you that you qualify for it.”

Burry’s investors threatened mutiny as the carrying cost for his bets mounted. Undeterred, Burry plunked down to buy $1 billion in credit default swaps, essentially insurance policies on the housing house of cards

He bet that it all would burn. And burn it did.

By 2008, Lehman® imploded, and Bear plowed its Stearns© into oblivion

Burry’s investors pocketed $720 million after fees. Burry personally cleared $100 million, enough to buy a lifetime supply of black market Asian kidneys. He could even do the occasional eye exam for fun and pleasure since his medical license remains intact.

The kicker? He shut down Scion in 2008, tired of the thankless grind, and because nothing says “peak contrarian” like cashing out as the casino explodes behind you.

I had a dream about Roman numerals last night: 5, 4, 1 and 500. It was VIVID.

His payment was that he was played in a movie about this epic heist, The Big Short (recommended), and that he was played by Christian Bale, who actually asked Burry for his actual clothing (cargo shorts and shirts) so he could wear them in the movie. I hope Micheal Chiklis asks to borrow my deodorant when he plays me in a movie.

Bale nailed the eccentric genius vibe: the twitching eye, the Asperger’s-adjacent intensity, the social awkwardness that makes Elon look like a prom king. Bale even learned to drum (Burry’s hobby) for the role. Imagine Chiklis having to learn to get in my daily step count – I’m up to 29.

Now, in a market puffed up like a Kardashian’s hooters, Burry is whispering (okay, Tweeting®) the dad wisdom of all dad wisdoms: sometimes, son, you just sit this hand out. No bluster, just a quiet nod to the sucker’s paradise we’re all pretending isn’t a powder keg from ACME™ while a drunken stripper pole-dances next to it lit cigar.

Burry and Bale, wearing the big shorts.

Generally, Burry’s X® feed is a cryptic cocktail of charts, quips, and quiet alarms.

That October 31 post? It’s the mic-drop missive in a string of sidelong swipes at the surreal stock spectacle that AI has wrought. Just days prior, Burry had tweeted innocuous eye charts and “move along” memes, like a oracle playing coy before the deluge.

On Tuesday (November 4, 2025), Burry is making jokes about being short (where you sell stock you don’t own in order to buy it back later after it goes down in price – it’s like selling cars you don’t own). Or maybe about shorts.

But peeling back the posts, Burry’s brewing a bearish broth. He’s been wrong before, just like me he’s predicted seven of the last two stock market crashes. In 2023, he warned of a “bubble of all bubbles,” while dumping his positions.

He also admitted he was wrong.

Now?

His latest dispatches echo that eerie prescience: bubbles abound, but betting against them isn’t always the balm. Sometimes, the house wins by default, by luring you in. It’s irony incarnate: the man who shorted the subprime supernova is now advising abstinence over aggression. Why play when the poker table’s tilted toward the trillion-dollar trusts and AI hype machines?

Burry’s not yelling “fire” in a crowded theater; he’s slipping a note under the door: “evacuate quietly, kids.”

And boy, does the timing tickle like a tetanus shot. Today, Bitcoin dropped from $109,500 at dawn to a dippy $99,800 by lunch, rebounding to $101k like a drunk uncle at last call.

Is crypto’s crashing alone, or is it the canary in the coal mine, signaling strains in the broader bedlam where Nvidia’s notched north of $5 trillion (more than Germany’s GDP)?

But, I think Burry is trying to tell us something simpler. Shorting the subprime was surgical; shorting everything now? That’s swinging a scalpel at a swarm of bees.

Better to bank your bullets, brew your beans, and watch the wasps war from the porch swing.

In this everything-extravaganza, where your grandma’s got GameStop™ options and your neighbor’s mining Monero® in the man-cave it pays to at least pay attention to Burry. Play if you must, and maybe, just maybe, those Beanie Babies™ will once surge in value.

After all, it’s different this time.

Note: This is not financial advice. I am an Internet humorist who gets paid nothing for writing this. If you take this humor column as financial advice (which I didn’t give anyway) you’re more stoned than Cheech and Chong were in 1977. And if you like Burry’s right, great— just don’t blame me if stocks surge and bite your shorts (borrowed or not).

Disclosure: I didn’t mention any stocks because I might buy some. Or sell some. Or do nothing.

Author: John

Nobel-Prize Winning, MacArthur Genius Grant Near Recipient writing to you regularly about Fitness, Wealth, and Wisdom - How to be happy and how to be healthy. Oh, and rich.

18 thoughts on “The Big Short Part 2: AI Boogaloo?”

  1. Back in the Stone Age (October 1987, I think), the Dow crashed 25% in one day. Panic. Treasury responded by buying tons of long QQQ, SPX, etc. The Dow bounced back.

    Rinse & repeat in 2008 when Lehman bit the dust. Days before it did, someone bought a sh*tload of its $5 puts for a penny each. Sold them when it dropped to $2 or so. Made millions before bankruptcy.

    TPTB create these “crises” to make big $$$ while bankrupting the middle class. Another rinse & repeat.

  2. “No bluster, just a quiet nod to the sucker’s paradise we’re all pretending isn’t a powder keg from ACME™ while a drunken stripper pole dances next to it lit cigar.” smoking a lit cigar? with a lit cigar?

    Great content, I am just a nitpicker.

  3. AI is currently generating 75% of gains, 80% of profits, and 90% of capex of the S&P Index.

    https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/ai-bubble-cisco-moment-dotcom-crash-nvidia-jensen-huang-top-analyst/

    ]The key to understanding this current AI bubble is the Nvidia-OpenAI-Oracle ponzi scheme doom loop.

    https://substack.com/@aisupremacy/note/c-159094315?r=cxsa3&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web

    Nvidia manufacturing their magic beans, er, AI chips is the starting point, with every investor on Wall Street channeling Fry from Futurama and saying “shut up and take my money”…

    https://www.reuters.com/graphics/NVIDIA-STOCKS/xmpjqgbmnvr/chart.png

    Nvidia takes this ocean of cash and invests it in Sam Altman/OpenAI, who has fantastical dreams to plant the magic beans, er, use the AI chips to create a beanstalk to the sky…

    https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/openai-and-nvidia-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-10gw-of-nvidia-systems

    …and so Sam has the cash he needs to water those beans, er, program those chips by buying fertile garden plots, er, data centers built by Oracle…

    https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/11/openai_reportedly_on_the_hook/

    …and Oracle, who is the one that must actually has to build something tangible, has to start buying stuff – starting with expensive Nvidia chips…

    https://www.reuters.com/business/oracle-buy-40-billion-nvidia-chips-openais-us-data-center-ft-reports-2025-05-23/

    …and around and around it goes. The technical term for all this is a circle jerk.

    At some point it’s gonna take something other than an orgasm of Wall Street money pumping into Nvidia to keep all of this going, but unfortunately it seems AI is turning into a dry hump…

    https://loris.ai/blog/mit-study-95-of-ai-projects-fail/

    …while credit default swaps (CDS) on Oracle possibly (probably?) failing in this huge data center construction gamble have got to be tempting Michael Berry….

    https://www.cryptopolitan.com/credit-traders-bet-oracle-default-ai-debt/

    (As a tech geek from Oak Ridge I could easily go off into an off-in-the-weeds tangent on the insanity of powering all of these AI data centers with untested mini-nukes out in the parking lot, but I’ll skip that…for now.)

    Finally here’s a TL;DR overview of all I’ve tried to cover above (without any sexual innuendo):

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/15/a-guide-to-1-trillion-worth-of-ai-deals-between-openai-nvidia.html

  4. Individual investors have a chance. Those with retirement funds involved in the madness only get to stare out the window as the train derails. Opting out isn’t an option, until it’s too late.

    1. That’s what I’m trying to figure out right now. I’m limited in where my work related retirement accounts can be invested. Currently in a S&P 500 index fund that has given me some rather nice returns but 30% of the S&P 500 is six companies. I still have at least five years until I retire but who knows when this house of cards will collapse.

      1. Most 401k plans allow rolling the savings out into an IRA at age 58. Lots more options in a private IRA. Good luck figuring out something else to invest in.

        1. Since I retired, inflation has eaten up 25% of my buying power. There is no way any normal investment can keep up with that loss, unless it’s a tangible good, such as gold. The stock market is for those with the ability to manipulate the market, which are those that can trade in a short notice, and have inside information, such as member of Congress. While precious metals are a good investment, the government can make it hard to trade in precious metals, and turn the investment into a large paperweight.

    2. Yup. Can only hope that your 401k investment strategy doesn’t involve risky investments.

  5. A sly commercial system built on faith.
    Insured birth certificated oversold souls.
    And the depop/genocide train roars by.

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