“Oh, man, I shot Marvin in the face.” – Pulp Fiction
Trump outlawed the selling of shredded cheese. He wants to make America grate again. (all memes as-found)
Am I the only one who feels like the global economy just got Tarantino’d?
One minute it’s business as usual, the next there’s blood on the walls, or in this case, oil not flowing through the pipes. We’re staring down the barrel of an oil shock that makes the 1970s look like a minor hiccup.
The Strait of Hormuz?
It was effectively slammed shut by the Iranians amid the escalating mess with the U.S. and Israel. That narrow choke point between Iran and Oman used to carry about 20 million barrels per day (liters per lightyear, for you Europeans) of crude and products.
That’s roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil consumption as of early 2026. Or I should say carried, past tense.
Now? Zilch. Null. Nada. Empty set. Nothing.
The taps are off, and we’re talking a sudden removal of around 15-20 million barrels per day (Coulombs per gram) from the global market, depending on how you slice the crude from the refined stuff.
The reason that Saudi Arabia has so much money isn’t because oil is expensive, but because they don’t let women spend money.
Oil prices are set at the margin.
It’s not just about the total supply the price is set by that last barrel that tips the scale. The world was already humming along at with supply keeping pace thanks to OPEC cuts, U.S. fracking miracles, and a dash of South American output from places like Guyana and Brazil, which apparently produce more than just horrific tropical diseases.
But shutting down 15 million barrels overnight?
That’s not a dip; that’s a crater. Prices don’t nudge up politely, they spike like a heart rate after too much coffee when this level of supply is cut. Oil isn’t just black gold for the gas tank of the Wildertruck®: it’s woven into every thread of modern life like pop culture.
When Fonzie’s motorcycle breaks does he call Triple-Ayyyy?
Plastics? Oil.
Transport? Trucks, ships, planes all guzzle it.
Heating an East Coast home in winter? Oil or derivatives.
Lubrication for machines that make everything from iPhones® to insulin? Yep, oil again.
When the price jumps it acts like a stealth tax on every single human activity that involves moving atoms around. We’ve already seen Brent crude north of $120 a barrel, with whispers of $150 if this drags on. Groceries will cost more because trucks burn fuel. Manufacturing grinds slower because inputs skyrocket. Even that Amazon® package shows up later and at a higher price.
Historically, high energy prices have been a tyrant’s best friend. Cheap energy? That’s freedom fuel. It lets people build, innovate, travel, and produce wealth without begging the government for handouts. Low prices mean less dependence on central planners I can heat my home, drive to work, and fill my tank without the state holding the reins.
But jack up those prices? Wealth creation stalls. People cut back on extras, then necessities. Factories idle. Jobs vanish. Suddenly, the masses are clamoring for subsidies, price controls, “emergency” aid.
I found out if I replace my coffee with green tea I lose 74% of my enjoyment of life.
Governments love that. It’s their cue to step in as savior, doling out favors while tightening the leash. Look at the 1970s: oil shocks led to inflation, stagflation, and a bigger welfare state.
We’re just at the front end of this beast. The 1970s shocks were bad. Prices quadrupled, lines at pumps, recessions, and worst of all, Jimmy Carter.
But back then, the world consumed only 60 million barrels per day (meters per kilogram). Now it’s almost twice that, economies are more interconnected, and just-in-time supply chains mean there’s no inventory to pick up the slack.
The Strait of Hormuz is (was) one of the most strategic spots on the planet. Easiest way to move oil? Pipelines, if you’ve got ‘em. Second? Water. It’s more convenient for collection if you use tankers rather than just pouring it on the water. And Hormuz was the biggest funnel: about 20% of global consumption squeezed through that 21-mile-wide gap at its narrowest. Talk about a speed zone.
I don’t understand time zones. In Europe it’s today, in Australia, it’s tomorrow, and in Iran it’s 832 A.D.
That oil won’t stay stuck forever my 50-50 guess is two months. After that, either cooler heads prevail and it reopens, or the Saudis and others pivot hard. They’ve got some bypass pipelines already but capacity is limited. Building more is feasible, but we’re talking billions and years, not weeks. In the meantime, producers like Saudi, Iraq, Kuwait are stuffing oil into storage tanks that are filling up fast.
Economic cracks are showing everywhere. Last week, I mentioned the private credit markets imploding with funds like BlackRock® limiting redemptions because liquidity’s drying up.
Now add this oil shock?
A.I. is already sucking up capital like a vacuum on steroids. But cash for everything else has been scarce. Billions in private debt funds are wobbling because borrowers can’t refinance at these rates, and higher energy costs will be the final nail for some.
Expect more gates slamming shut, more “sorry, your money’s stuck here” letters.
Gasoline prices are up here in the U.S., sure. Last I heard we were headed to $4.50 a gallon as an average, while pushing $6 in California. Compared to the rest of the world, this is a sweet spot. Thanks to fracking, the U.S. produces about two-thirds of the crude we consume, with most imports coming from Mexico and Canada.
This hurts us, but tis but a flesh wound compared to the gut punch for Europe and China.
A question from Iran: “Is it okay to sleep with your third cousin? I mean, if you’ve stopped sleeping with the other two?”
Europe? They’re getting hammered. They were already weaning off Russian oil post-Ukraine, now Middle East flows disrupted? Natural gas prices are spiking, factories are idling in Germany, protests in France, well, there are always protests in France.
Will this force negotiations with Russia over Ukraine? Absolutely possible. “Hey, Vlad, how about we ease sanctions if you pump more to us and we’ll rough up the Ukrainian midget?”
China’s in the same boat. 70% of their oil imports are from the Gulf, but are now rerouting around Africa at huge cost.
Where does this end?
Short term: pain.
Recessions in Europe, a slowdown in Asia, inflation here at home.
Long term: resets, and the world that we live in now becomes a dream.
I once had a dream I married an invisible woman. Not sure what I saw in her. Our kids were nothing to look at, either.
More drilling everywhere feasible, and maybe a rethink on global dependencies and who uses what currency. But don’t count on smooth sailing. Shocks like this expose fragilities, and in the Fourth Turning crisis, they’ll accelerate change.
Cheap energy’s over for now.
This oil shock isn’t just economic: it’s existential.
Things flow smoothly. Until they don’t.
Just ask Marvin.
Our “economy”, fake and ghey as it is, runs on cheap debt and cheap energy. Take away the cheap energy and you have a serious problem.
{Narrator Voice} We have a serious problem
Yeah man the cheap energy has been a pretty big rug under which a lot of the reality of the decline and corresponding inflationary conditions have been swept.
Cheap credit and cheap energy and we still got a wrecked economy and war. Go figgure. They have been clear that the “market” can’t survive a few bips up in rates but we are gonna logjam the worlds energy port? I’ve been hearing about the global derivatives bomb for almost as long as Iranian nukes. Free beer tomorrow.
It was not that long ago that market signals actually meant something, even though still fake and gay but at least optically tethered to some sort of shared reality, but after “covid” the systemic changes and massive wealth transfer and systemic disparity of capital ownership have broken the old model and replaced it with a meme economy.
Some Finkelstein’s monster that is either totally out of control and destroying the village or under some top-down program of extreme control that will of course have to be extended all the way into every kitchen very soon. I reckon both can be in play.
I put nothing past them. Except all that city of london noth sea nexus vatican mercantile long game art of the deal masterclass that underpins the hopium peddlers who also just happen to be “traders” themselves. The line of camels at the eye of the needle is super long. Perhaps thats why “we” needed to blow up more camel jockeys.
One thing that stands out is that the alt-reality vs reality that was broken open with covid was not stitched back together but instead accelerated. To the point now that most on the “right” have taken up the same playbook vis a vis the 4D chess of ignoring observable reality in favor of the fantastical.
The parsimony of clear thinking and short, straight lines have given way to the meme war and its serpentine green-screen warren of hyper-online rabbit holes and some “president” who is winning the war on globohomo by doubling down on globohomo. Which makes sense given that on the individual level the game theory of FUSA has long been one of defect-cooperate, to beat the joo become the joo.
It is fake. And gay. We do have a problem, and more about that tomorrow.
Trump screwed the pooch. And Netanyahoo had six fingers yesterday. Twilight Zone.
Was GM of an Exxon jobber back in 1979. Zoo city. This is shaping up worse. Three weeks ago paid $2.46/gal. Yesterday, $3.54.
All petro retailers will be put on allocation…20-25% reduction of contract. That’s when the SHTF.
not even close…Zechariah 14:12 is shtf
son24-
That verse applies to Khazarians, aka the Fake J*ws. I’m addressing what will happen here in the US. Gas lines won’t go over well at all as they did in 1979.
Lam no one who calls themselves a Jew isn’t one. And what will people do riot or vote harder lol
Yup. This is going to be much bigger. Much.
Gretard haz a sad….
https://x.com/LangmanVince/status/2032147272713093122?
You’d think she’d be sticking to her original game & screaming about all the air pollution erupting throughout the big sandbox….
https://i.imgur.com/lb3O2cU.png
first stage gollum
She just wants communism. That’s it.
Out here in the hinterlands we are very concerned about the increasing price of Ag inputs. Fertilizers of all forma have gone up by half since the Iran war started; worse than the 2022 increase with the Ukraine war.
Planting season doesn’t wait for the straits to open. We have to buy diesel fuel, fertilizers, and pesticides now. Those increases costs will show up in fall grocery bills.
John beat me to the PUNCH.
Oil IS Fertilizer AND Pesticides. Not to mention fuel for tractors, Semi-trucks hauling and every FREAKING Step along the way from Farmer to Grocery store.
Both are “Just in time” products as congress loves to tax people that happen to keep a few years’ worth of “inventory” so businesses DON’T.
America Produces fertilizer, AMERICA IMPORTS a fair bit of their Fertilizer, why?
Offshoring is cheaper than building MORE Factories to make Fertilizer here with all that American OIL.
Can you say HIGH FOOD Prices? I know you can. Most American’s will not starve per say. Other countries depending on that stopped up oil and fertilizer not so lucky.
CAN you Spell FAMINE in poorer countries?
However as someone that lived through the Oil Embargo (and that’s what Trump just gave us) with gasoline lines and ODD-EVEN license plate allotments know a JOKE Not a Joke from that era:
You can buy food, pay rent, buy gasoline to get to work, pay the electricity bill and buy medicine.
PICK 3 maybe 4 if your middle class.
Fixed income social security folks were SCREWED. Working Poor were SCREWED, Middle Class felt the pinch cutting back from expensive meats to cheaper stuff and canceling purchases of cars and vacations.
Michael
Ammonia produced and stored 365, but, yeah, it’s market priced. And, you’re 100% right: smaller countries may see horrific conditions.
>CAN you Spell FAMINE in poorer countries?
Famine will accelerate low-IQ, low impulse control shitheads invading white countries.
#handrubbingintensifies
Do you guys think this might be the uniparty game plan?
Exactly. We will be paying for this. Toss a drought on top and we’ll be Depression-tier.
The USS Tripoli is inbound…
https://news.usni.org/2026/03/13/uss-tripoli-31st-meu-heading-to-the-middle-east
…with a Marine Expeditionary Unit and 2500 US Marines…
https://www.marines.mil/portals/1/Amphibious%20Ready%20Group%20And%20Marine%20Expeditionary%20Unit%20Overview.pdf
…whose only logical target is a seize-and-hold invasion of Kharg Island….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharg_Island
I predict we’re going the next step up the escalation ladder.
I mean is it just me or wouldn’t it make more sense to leave Kharg island alone until the very end? Make them defend it instead of spreading ourselves out that much thinner, I mean I suppose they are worried about the irgc pulling a sadam on the facilities there but it seems like the threat of loosing the island might trigger them to do something like that anyway before the marines even get there…. If it was me who had to do it I’d try to get 101st or 82nd in position in a sneaky sort of fashion and try to take it by air assault while everyone is watching the Marines still in transit…
the war is not meant to be won, its meant to be continuous
Sadly, I believe you’re right
Sad to say you’re probably correct, boots on the ground.
Drop a bunch of our troops INTO the MIDDLE of a FREAKING OIL REFINERY.
A drone or three, maybe a simple weapons malfunction and POOF Flaming Gasoline and such all around.
You might want to research how BAD oil refinery FIRES are….
And that’s when you can RUN AWAY and fight it from a safe distance.
Your ON THE ISLAND that’s ablaze.
The Stupid, It Burns..
Michael
How are they going to get anywhere near a place they can land? Teleportation?
Maybe take Kharg Island to pay for the war? Similar to the Kawaitti deal with Bush 1?
WWIII instead of arrest the pedos? You chose poorly.
Locally diesel $5+ a gallon, gas almost four.
Higher along the interstate.
Duh, winning.
If’n you’ns ain’t prepared for rough times, and shortages, and runaway inflation, along with “social unrest” (people rioting and behaving like animals) then perhaps you should get that way. This is a Leviathan out of control, and it may very likely get completely bonkers, with lawlessness a la’ Mad Max. As other commentors have noted, the system we have is completely dependent on oil and especially diesel.
Yup. World War or Civil War. Why not both?
A civil war is a great way for world war to start. A long distance war tripping a civil war seems far less likely, especially a distance war that can be turned off like a light switch.
The really big risk is the exposure of how poorly stocked the US war machine is. If Iran depleted the majority of our super weapons that base our capability, then China could steam-roll right over us, especially since some idiot made our defenses dependent on China suppliers.
Taiwan is ripe for the plucking, but I think China will wait until it falls into their lap.
“Lubrication for machines that make everything from iPhones® to Pez Dispensers? ”
There, fixed it for you.
Yes. And I like the new logo!
FYI, the Straight of Hormuz isn’t closed. Ships bound for China and a few other East Asian countries are allowed passage.
A few other. But we haven’t yet reached peak problems.