Uncategorized – Wilder, Wealthy, and Wise

Civil War 2.0 Weather Report: Reviewing Timing

“Since when can a weatherman predict the weather, let alone the future?” – Back to the Future

I am nearly perfect at predicting what is in festively wrapped packages. It’s a gift. (most memes as-found)

Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
Open War.

Volume VII, Issue 12

Most memes except for the clock and graphs are “as found”. I have maintained the Clock O’Doom at 9., given the open support of assassination and criminality by the GloboLeft and the increase in violence as well as direct interference with ICE and the insertion of the military into law enforcement. Beware: the number can climb quickly.

My advice remains. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue: Front Matter – Timing – Violence and Censorship Update – Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 840 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at or before 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.

Timing

After seven years of these updates (84 issues plus specials) it’s time to talk about what is probably the most difficult thing to predict: timing. This is probably the question that most people have: When will the Civil War start?

We have entered the zone that I predicted back in 2019 or so when I thought the Civil War would be most likely: 2026 through 2038, peaking in 2032.

This isn’t just something I made up by throwing darts at a board. Okay, there were some darts, but also some spreadsheets.

If you’ve read Strauss and Howe’s book The Fourth Turning, they make a very good case for societal chaos at this time as society unravels. This is based on the way that the generations who are in charge control the economy. The long-lived Boomers have been in control of power since 1992, much longer than usual. When their generation (and their analogs through United States history) have given up power, it’s usually the sign that we’re ready for either a civil war or an international war.

There are reasons for this.

The economic situation was screwed up in 1932, and taking action back then just made the Great Depression worse. Back then, the playbook was to steal the gold of the people to shore up government finances. Today? We’ll just print more money which is theft via inflation of the cash held by people.

We’ve reached a point which was trivial to calculate seven years ago where the debt is bigger than the GDP. Oh, and interest costs 18% of federal revenues, and federal spending on healthcare is over 27% and the only words that are off limits in congress are “deficit reduction”.

You can always drink a bit too much at the party, but when you go on a decades-long bender, it’s going to be a hell of a hangover. Right now, the party is still going with DOW 50k in sight.

Is it sustainable?

Yes, for a while.

But what happens when it crashes? I think we’ve seen that the economy has already priced-out many middle-class people from doing luxury things like, oh, going to McDonald’s®. And this leads to people being miserable. And happy people don’t take part in a civil war, miserable people with nothing to lose do. And, yeah, going to war because you can’t get Chicken McNuggets™ may seem like an overreaction, but by observation, Wilders Rule No. 7 applies: “The biggest fights are over the smallest things.” I’ve seen adults nearly explode when something simple is in error. People are strong for the big things, but running out of ketchup?

Yeah, that might lead to a meltdown.

In addition to popular immiseration, Peter Turchin notes that you need someone to lead the civil war. This would members of the overproduced elite. Turchin had a recent post on lawyers where he noted that their incomes peaked in two regions: $60,000 and $190,000.

There were a lot more lawyers making $60,000 than $190,000.

Sure, there are a lot of lawyer jokes out there, but lawyers are ambitious and often are good at making arguments. These are the types of people that become the backbone of a civil war’s leadership. Remember Robespierre? Yeah, he was a lawyer.

Lawyers and engineers are finding that their earning capacity has been drastically lowered due to H-1Bs and outsourcing to foreign firms. Soon enough, it’ll be worse as A.I. reduces the number of jobs that entry-level lawyers and engineers will get even more. Smart people who feel that their future they planned for no longer exists have nothing to lose.

And they’re smart. And dedicated. And ambitious. And angry.

I didn’t see A.I. coming, but I did tell both of my sons this: “Don’t take a job that someone can do in Mumbai.” The global displacement of American knowledge workers will have consequences. A.I. will multiply it.

The final factor is polarization. The idiot who tried the most recent assassination in Washington D.C. has support from many on the GlobLeft. Many. They only see one solution for the Nazis, and that’s to kill them. Who are Nazis? Everyone to the right of them, including normies in the middle who just want to grill.

There is no national consensus at all on anything. If Trump said he loved oxygen, half of the GloboLeft would hold their breath just to spite him.

If the market collapses, or the infinity deficits have to stop because the dollar loses its reserve-currency status, those are likely the sparks that drive us over the cliff from the cold Civil War 2.0 that’s going on right now into a hot war flaring up across the country.

Are there off ramps that avoid Civil War 2.0? Sure. It could be that Trump is attempting to replace civil war with a sustained and popular foreign war, but although Trump may get a sustained war, it’s unlikely to be popular. The other offramp is that we end up with a candidate on either the Right or GloboLeft that wants to unite the country, but finding a candidate that could satisfy all sides is very unlikely.

In the end, are there off ramps? Sure. Do I see us taking one? Not really. I think we’re at the front-end of when Civil War 2.0 could start though I don’t see it quite yet. After this summer, I see the next big danger point being in July of 2028. I still don’t see us going past 2038 without a collapse. 2032 and a contentious presidential election after the Supreme Court was packed and the economy in shambles?

That’s been my most likely selection for seven years, and I’m sticking with it.

(No second story this month.)

Violence and Censorship Update

Violence is still on the menu, boys:

A GloboLeftist with social media that sounds like every other GloboLeftist went on an attempt to shoot-up the White House Correspondent Dinner. If there are two groups that hate each other in the United States, it’s Trump and the press. Will this stop the press from calling Trump a Nazi since doing so put them in danger?

No.

The SPLC was indicted because they didn’t have enough racists, so they had to pay money to create racists to be against. Oops.

A breath of fresh air hit when Amazon®, after banning The Camp of the Saints, unbanned it last year. It then banned it again last month, but the backlash was immediate and Amazon© caved.

Misery Index

The new Trump administration is shown in red. Results continue to be much better than Biden’s misery numbers.

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Violence indicators are down this month. I think the attack in Washington hasn’t filtered into the numbers yet.

Political Instability:

Down is more stable, and it went up again this month. We’ll see what May brings. Down, I think.

Economic:

The economy took a drop last month, but then completely recovered.

Illegal Aliens:

Still the near lowest level since the Weather Report started.

LINKS

The links are again done by Ricky this month. Thanks, Ricky!

GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS
https://www.firstalert4.com/2026/02/04/he-was-just-giver-good-samaritan-shot-killed-after-offering-ride-woman-seeking-shelter/
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2026/04/01/a-roving-good-samaritan-friends-speak-lovingly-of-murdered-east-side-man-whose-body-was-found-burning/
https://news4sanantonio.com/news/local/man-arrested-after-sending-child-porn-to-good-samaritan
https://www.fox13now.com/news/crime/suspect-on-the-run-after-crashing-car-stealing-good-samaritans-car-in-south-salt-lake
https://www.wesh.com/article/good-samaritan-becomes-victim-ambush-attack-video-florida-highway/70930393
https://people.com/good-samaritan-helped-stranded-man-gas-station-then-was-murdered-11961324

ONE GUY
https://archive.is/C2i9a

BODY COUNT
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a71051702/global-population-shortage-humans/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/19/us-population-fertility-rate

VOTE COUNT
https://thenationalpulse.com/2026/04/21/revealed-rnc-blew-va-referendum-due-to-lavish-cornyn-spending-and-misplaced-priorities/
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/former-dem-mayoral-candidate-admits-forging-voter-registration-applications
https://www.judicialwatch.org/inactive-voters-removed-colorado-voter-rolls/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/alabama-governor-calls-special-session-move-primaries-redistricting-ge-rcna343125

CIVIL WAR
https://www.science.org/content/article/what-plunged-these-chimps-civil-war-new-study-traces-breakdown
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andymeek/2026/03/20/the-maga-media-civil-war-is-getting-ugly-and-personal/
https://newrepublic.com/article/208958/trump-iran-war-critics-maga-civil-war
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/4/29/800029865/community/make-no-mistake-the-democratic-party-is-in-a-civil-war-between-oligar/
https://news.syr.edu/2025/10/02/secession-in-the-us-could-it-happen/
https://fortworthinc.com/commentary/could-texas-still-secede-some-haven-t-given-up-the-fight/
https://www.cityandstateny.com/personality/2026/02/desire-secede-may-be-one-thing-most-new-york-regions-have-common/411310/
https://thewalrus.ca/can-alberta-keep-foreign-meddling-out-of-its-secession-vote/
https://kevinmlevin.substack.com/p/we-are-not-living-through-a-civil
https://jonathanturley.org/2026/05/01/contempt-of-court-hakeem-jeffries-denounces-the-supreme-court-as-illegitimate/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/treating-politics-like-war-leads-to-our-collective-demise-opinion/ar-AA22dv21
https://jonathanturley.org/2026/04/28/a-nation-divided-new-survey-shows-changing-views-of-democracy-and-political-violence/

Monday Memes, I Was Feeling A Bit Lazy

The GloboLeft propaganda:

What I’d prefer:

What the GloboLeftElite do:

What the GloboLeftElite prefer for you:

What actually will happen:

Taxes Sucked My Time, Enjoy These Memes Instead

And I’m still doing taxes. I’m missing a form from a broker, so unless I can get it electronically, it’s extension city.

Ugh.

*update, got the form online, taxes done. Taxes still suck.

Civil War 2.0 Weather Report: The Danger Zone, 2026

“Don’t they know you’re in the danger zone?” – Archer

I got kicked out of the bar for attempting to karaoke “Danger Zone” three times in a row. Too many Loggins attempts.

Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
Open War.

Volume VII, Issue 11

My advice remains. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue: Front Matter – Danger Zone – Violence and Censorship Update – Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (link below) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 840 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at or before 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.

Civil War Weather Report Previous Posts

Danger Zone

Trump was elected based on the desire of the electorate for change.

The immiseration of the people of the United States had been a constant for decades through both Republican and Democrat. One example of this immiseration was through pumping the wealth out of workers through things like bringing in unending hordes of illegal aliens as the GloboLeft galloped left at full speed.

The GloboLeftElite loved this because it diluted the Founding Stock of the United States. The Chamber of Commerce Right loved it because they could get cheaper wages from people who couldn’t really complain about being treated unfairly because they were here illegally. H-1Bs, who Trump criticized during his 2016 campaign, were just a legal version of illegal strawberry pickers from Venezuela, making wages go down for white collar workers as well.

Trump was elected not only because of that single issue, but it was a very big issue to his supporters. Controlling illegals had upwards of 80% approval in the 1980s and 1990s, but yet neither side really wanted to stop it because both profited.

In general, by the time Trump showed up, people were very tired of their government working mainly for those with access and cash rather than, you know, the voters. In this, Trump’s appeal was as a populist, nationalist, and traditionalist.

Well, we can play pretend about the traditional bit, but he certainly sold it.

So where does that put us?

We’ve already seen the early tremors of increased unrest in March: those four terrorism-linked incidents and the “No Kings” protests that pulled in eight million GloboLeftists. They were only slightly fiery and were mostly peaceful, I guess. But the Trump Derangement Syndrome was thick enough to cut with a knife.

I’ve said it before, but my call as the window of peak danger of civil unrest, maybe heading to something spicier is still late June through mid-August

First, the destabilizing bits: Economic pain from the Iran/Israel military action is the big one. Fuel prices are climbing, diesel surcharges are right now hitting shipping and farming. Fertilizer costs will soon be pushing pushing grocery inflation toward 3%

Or 6%.

Or worse.

That’s not abstract. It’s a hidden tax that hits those with lower incomes first and hardest, and makes everyone irritable. Add in the war’s unpopularity with polls hovering around 54-60% of Americans against it. There has been no national proposition given, and certainly no big “rally around the flag” moment.

The GloboLeft mobilizes like they did with No Kings™ and they just want to make things burn.

March already brought terror incidents noted below in the Violence and Censorship Update. A few more sparks with no arrests and no controls?

The result is backlash cycles, copycats, and overreactions that make GloboLeftist cities feel like powder kegs. I’m rating it high on the economic front, medium-high on the polarization and protest momentum, medium on the terrorism angle.

All of it adds up an area more prone to wildfire than the land underneath an electrical pole in California.

Certainly, there’s another side. Trump’s weakened position and the very real shot at Democratic midterm gains will weigh huge in the minds of the GloboLeftist: they don’t need to burn down Portland (again) they just need to wait.

History shows midterms punish the president’s party when approval sits in the 39-40% range, and right now the numbers point to the GloboLeft taking the House and maybe challenging the Senate. That gives the opposition a concrete, non-violent outlet: organize, fundraise, vote, investigate, block funding, block nominees to federal courts, including the Supreme Court (Clarence, might be time to retire, bro).

Anger may get channeled into ballots instead of barricades and barista rage. We saw the same pattern after big protest waves before on the GloboLeft: energy shifts from streets to strategy sessions.

The biggest golden opportunity is if some miracle happens in Iran and things go back to normal, quickly. The TradRight’s base remains pretty cohesive, and if it winds down Maduro-fast, economic relief may (and I stress may) follow.

The other major factor is that Americans have a habit of bending instead of breaking when elections loom. Post-2020 lessons mean better law enforcement prep and more public fatigue with endless disorder.

Net result? The system may (again, may) direct the pressure into polarized politics rather than national breakdown.

A perfect storm would look like prolonged war, major terror attack, economic crash with no relief and the sort of political agitation that took George Floyd from dead junkie to St. George. Don’t think that wasn’t engineered to make Trump look bad.

My timing of greatest risk in 2026? Late June to mid-August.

Heat and aggression go together like cheap beer, dark bars, and bad decisions. Decades of studies show violence and collective unrest spike with temperature. Violence pops roughly 9% higher for every 20°F jump, up to about 85°F. Over that, the “It’s too hot to do anything” starts to kick in. But historically, the United States has had to deal with violence peaking during hot summers.

Look at the “long hot summers” of the 1960s, the 1919 Red Summer peaks, Watts in 1965, or how George Floyd protests exploded and dragged through June-August 2020. People are outside more, school’s out, protests feel easier.

Add the perceptual distance from the November midterms. If you can’t save enough to pay the rent, an election 3 to 4.5 months away feels like nothing’s happening fast enough.

Summer heat just turns the volume up on whatever tinder already exists.

Pulling the whole thread together: March gave us the preview of early terror incidents plus those historic-scale protests that acted as both pressure valve and polarization amplifier. The hypothetical Iran mess layers on economic stress and extremism risks that could intensify by summer.

Late June to mid-August lines up as my bet for peak trouble because of the heat, the calendar gap, and the precedent.

The midterm outlet remains the strongest stabilizer. The Left gets a path to power without needing indefinite street theater and endless pictures of fugly women with unshaved pits.

Keep an eye on June.

(No second story this month, this one got long enough)

Violence and Censorship Update

Violence is back on the menu, boys:

On March 1, Ndiaga Diagne was upset about Iran, and is alleged to have killed 3 and injured 15 after opening fire in a bar in Austin, Texas.

March 7 brought us a moslem throwing a homemade bomb while at a rally of people who were protesting to keep moslems in the United States.

Mohamed Bailor Jalloh went postal at Old Dominion University, but was killed after murdering one on March 12.

On March 28 the “No Kings” protest against Trump saw 3000 plus groups of GloboLeftists claiming a total of eight million protestors, with hundreds of arrests nationally of GloboLeftists initiating violence.

Censorship?

Europe is still king, with more arrests for memes or any opinion on immigration or moslem violence that didn’t regard moslem violence as deserving of praise, so, no change.

Misery Index

The new Trump administration is shown in red. Results continue to be much better than Biden’s misery numbers, though this is Trump’s worst month of his second term.

Behold, the Miserito!

Updated Civil War II Index

Violence:

Violence indicators have maintained a high level this month. This is one of the top five months of the last 84 (the CW Weather Report started in June, 2019).

Political Instability:

Down is more stable, and it went up this month. I anticipate it going up again in April, especially since half of the population hates Americans and 40% of the other half don’t want a war with Iran.

Economic: