“Since when can a weatherman predict the weather, let alone the future?” – Back to the Future
I am nearly perfect at predicting what is in festively wrapped packages. It’s a gift. (most memes as-found)
- Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
- People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
- Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
- Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
- Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
- Open War.
Volume VII, Issue 12
Most memes except for the clock and graphs are “as found”. I have maintained the Clock O’Doom at 9., given the open support of assassination and criminality by the GloboLeft and the increase in violence as well as direct interference with ICE and the insertion of the military into law enforcement. Beware: the number can climb quickly.
My advice remains. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.
In this issue: Front Matter – Timing – Violence and Censorship Update – Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Links
Front Matter
Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 840 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at or before 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.
Timing
After seven years of these updates (84 issues plus specials) it’s time to talk about what is probably the most difficult thing to predict: timing. This is probably the question that most people have: When will the Civil War start?
We have entered the zone that I predicted back in 2019 or so when I thought the Civil War would be most likely: 2026 through 2038, peaking in 2032.
This isn’t just something I made up by throwing darts at a board. Okay, there were some darts, but also some spreadsheets.
If you’ve read Strauss and Howe’s book The Fourth Turning, they make a very good case for societal chaos at this time as society unravels. This is based on the way that the generations who are in charge control the economy. The long-lived Boomers have been in control of power since 1992, much longer than usual. When their generation (and their analogs through United States history) have given up power, it’s usually the sign that we’re ready for either a civil war or an international war.
There are reasons for this.
The economic situation was screwed up in 1932, and taking action back then just made the Great Depression worse. Back then, the playbook was to steal the gold of the people to shore up government finances. Today? We’ll just print more money which is theft via inflation of the cash held by people.
We’ve reached a point which was trivial to calculate seven years ago where the debt is bigger than the GDP. Oh, and interest costs 18% of federal revenues, and federal spending on healthcare is over 27% and the only words that are off limits in congress are “deficit reduction”.
You can always drink a bit too much at the party, but when you go on a decades-long bender, it’s going to be a hell of a hangover. Right now, the party is still going with DOW 50k in sight.
Is it sustainable?
Yes, for a while.
But what happens when it crashes? I think we’ve seen that the economy has already priced-out many middle-class people from doing luxury things like, oh, going to McDonald’s®. And this leads to people being miserable. And happy people don’t take part in a civil war, miserable people with nothing to lose do. And, yeah, going to war because you can’t get Chicken McNuggets™ may seem like an overreaction, but by observation, Wilders Rule No. 7 applies: “The biggest fights are over the smallest things.” I’ve seen adults nearly explode when something simple is in error. People are strong for the big things, but running out of ketchup?
Yeah, that might lead to a meltdown.
In addition to popular immiseration, Peter Turchin notes that you need someone to lead the civil war. This would members of the overproduced elite. Turchin had a recent post on lawyers where he noted that their incomes peaked in two regions: $60,000 and $190,000.
There were a lot more lawyers making $60,000 than $190,000.
Sure, there are a lot of lawyer jokes out there, but lawyers are ambitious and often are good at making arguments. These are the types of people that become the backbone of a civil war’s leadership. Remember Robespierre? Yeah, he was a lawyer.
Lawyers and engineers are finding that their earning capacity has been drastically lowered due to H-1Bs and outsourcing to foreign firms. Soon enough, it’ll be worse as A.I. reduces the number of jobs that entry-level lawyers and engineers will get even more. Smart people who feel that their future they planned for no longer exists have nothing to lose.
And they’re smart. And dedicated. And ambitious. And angry.
I didn’t see A.I. coming, but I did tell both of my sons this: “Don’t take a job that someone can do in Mumbai.” The global displacement of American knowledge workers will have consequences. A.I. will multiply it.
The final factor is polarization. The idiot who tried the most recent assassination in Washington D.C. has support from many on the GlobLeft. Many. They only see one solution for the Nazis, and that’s to kill them. Who are Nazis? Everyone to the right of them, including normies in the middle who just want to grill.
There is no national consensus at all on anything. If Trump said he loved oxygen, half of the GloboLeft would hold their breath just to spite him.
If the market collapses, or the infinity deficits have to stop because the dollar loses its reserve-currency status, those are likely the sparks that drive us over the cliff from the cold Civil War 2.0 that’s going on right now into a hot war flaring up across the country.
Are there off ramps that avoid Civil War 2.0? Sure. It could be that Trump is attempting to replace civil war with a sustained and popular foreign war, but although Trump may get a sustained war, it’s unlikely to be popular. The other offramp is that we end up with a candidate on either the Right or GloboLeft that wants to unite the country, but finding a candidate that could satisfy all sides is very unlikely.
In the end, are there off ramps? Sure. Do I see us taking one? Not really. I think we’re at the front-end of when Civil War 2.0 could start though I don’t see it quite yet. After this summer, I see the next big danger point being in July of 2028. I still don’t see us going past 2038 without a collapse. 2032 and a contentious presidential election after the Supreme Court was packed and the economy in shambles?
That’s been my most likely selection for seven years, and I’m sticking with it.
(No second story this month.)
Violence and Censorship Update
Violence is still on the menu, boys:
A GloboLeftist with social media that sounds like every other GloboLeftist went on an attempt to shoot-up the White House Correspondent Dinner. If there are two groups that hate each other in the United States, it’s Trump and the press. Will this stop the press from calling Trump a Nazi since doing so put them in danger?
No.
The SPLC was indicted because they didn’t have enough racists, so they had to pay money to create racists to be against. Oops.
A breath of fresh air hit when Amazon®, after banning The Camp of the Saints, unbanned it last year. It then banned it again last month, but the backlash was immediate and Amazon© caved.
Misery Index
The new Trump administration is shown in red. Results continue to be much better than Biden’s misery numbers.
Updated Civil War II Index
The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.
Violence:
Violence indicators are down this month. I think the attack in Washington hasn’t filtered into the numbers yet.
Political Instability:
Down is more stable, and it went up again this month. We’ll see what May brings. Down, I think.
Economic:
The economy took a drop last month, but then completely recovered.
Illegal Aliens:
Still the near lowest level since the Weather Report started.
LINKS
The links are again done by Ricky this month. Thanks, Ricky!
GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS
https://www.firstalert4.com/2026/02/04/he-was-just-giver-good-samaritan-shot-killed-after-offering-ride-woman-seeking-shelter/
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2026/04/01/a-roving-good-samaritan-friends-speak-lovingly-of-murdered-east-side-man-whose-body-was-found-burning/
https://news4sanantonio.com/news/local/man-arrested-after-sending-child-porn-to-good-samaritan
https://www.fox13now.com/news/crime/suspect-on-the-run-after-crashing-car-stealing-good-samaritans-car-in-south-salt-lake
https://www.wesh.com/article/good-samaritan-becomes-victim-ambush-attack-video-florida-highway/70930393
https://people.com/good-samaritan-helped-stranded-man-gas-station-then-was-murdered-11961324
ONE GUY
https://archive.is/C2i9a
BODY COUNT
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a71051702/global-population-shortage-humans/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/19/us-population-fertility-rate
VOTE COUNT
https://thenationalpulse.com/2026/04/21/revealed-rnc-blew-va-referendum-due-to-lavish-cornyn-spending-and-misplaced-priorities/
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/former-dem-mayoral-candidate-admits-forging-voter-registration-applications
https://www.judicialwatch.org/inactive-voters-removed-colorado-voter-rolls/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/alabama-governor-calls-special-session-move-primaries-redistricting-ge-rcna343125
CIVIL WAR
https://www.science.org/content/article/what-plunged-these-chimps-civil-war-new-study-traces-breakdown
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andymeek/2026/03/20/the-maga-media-civil-war-is-getting-ugly-and-personal/
https://newrepublic.com/article/208958/trump-iran-war-critics-maga-civil-war
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/4/29/800029865/community/make-no-mistake-the-democratic-party-is-in-a-civil-war-between-oligar/
https://news.syr.edu/2025/10/02/secession-in-the-us-could-it-happen/
https://fortworthinc.com/commentary/could-texas-still-secede-some-haven-t-given-up-the-fight/
https://www.cityandstateny.com/personality/2026/02/desire-secede-may-be-one-thing-most-new-york-regions-have-common/411310/
https://thewalrus.ca/can-alberta-keep-foreign-meddling-out-of-its-secession-vote/
https://kevinmlevin.substack.com/p/we-are-not-living-through-a-civil
https://jonathanturley.org/2026/05/01/contempt-of-court-hakeem-jeffries-denounces-the-supreme-court-as-illegitimate/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/treating-politics-like-war-leads-to-our-collective-demise-opinion/ar-AA22dv21
https://jonathanturley.org/2026/04/28/a-nation-divided-new-survey-shows-changing-views-of-democracy-and-political-violence/
