But What If You’re Wrong?

“What if you’re wrong, Evil? What if Dandridge is a vampire and he thinks you know it? Would you walk down that alley then?” – Fright Night

MATH

How many vampires are good at math?  Can I count Dracula?

“Indeed, none but the Deity can tell what is good luck and what is bad before the returns are all in,” wrote Mark Twain.

Yet, so many people are certain that they can determine what good luck is with great certainty.  As I get older, like Twain, I’m not sure that I can tell good luck from bad on any given day.  So, I try to take it as it is.  Rain?  Good.  We needed rain.  Hot?  Well, the air conditioning works.  Snow?  Great – it will kill the insects.  A massive hail of arrows that blots out the Sun?  Excellent.  We can fight in the shade.

I came to this conclusion after one day when I looked backward at my life around the age of 32 – the things that I had hoped for – recognition, money, and a bountiful supply of PEZ® hadn’t made life better.  The things I had tried to avoid – a near zero bank account, 16+ hour days as a single dad with a job, and life without a spouse made me a better man and made me think about the relationships between virtue, money, and meaning.

The time of plenty hadn’t made me better, but the time where I spent six months raising kids by myself before I had a spare $150 to buy a used Fender® and an amp at a pawn shop had.  Huh?  How could that be, especially when I got cheated on the guitar – “no strings attached” had a different meaning in that pawn shop.

BEAR

I gave up and sold the guitar to a guy in town who doesn’t have any arms.  I asked how he was going to play it, and he said, “By ear.”

It was then I decided that getting everything I wanted would have been the worst possible thing for me.  Instead, getting a tougher life made me better.  I was in my 20s when I had that revelation, and it has stayed with me.  It also has led me to always ask myself:

What if I’m wrong?

Not wrong.  But really, really wrong?

In some sense, people might call this indecision, like I don’t know what I want.  I mean, indecision was when I couldn’t decide between churros and sopapillas for desert, which caught me off guard – no one expects Spanish Indecision.  But this is different.  I call this humility.  I might have a clear sense of what I want, but have no real idea what is good for me.  Call it the Twain Zone.

It leads to some interesting thought experiments – what if the exact opposite of what I’m expecting happens?

Historically, I can give numerous examples of surprises that “no one” was expecting – where nearly everyone was wrong.

  • The U.S.S.R. looked strong and invulnerable in 1985. Rocky IV and Red Dawn reflected the public mood that the Soviets just might win.  By 1987, cracks were showing, by 1989 areas were in open rebellion, and by 1991 the U.S.S.R. voted itself out of existence on December 26.  That’s a shame.  I heard that Soviet bread was so good that people would wait in line all day for a single piece.
  • Stock prices have reached “what looks like a permanently high plateau,” said Irving Fisher, Yale economist, on October 10, 1929. October 24, 1929 was Black Thursday, where the market lost 11% in a single day. Oops.  I will say that COVID-19 makes it feel like 1929 – the stock market is tanked and the bars are closed.
  • On August 9, 1974 Richard Nixon resigned, less than two years after crushing his opponent George McGovern 520-17 in the Electoral College, winning every state but Massachusetts, where the penalty for drunk driving is re-election to the Senate.

NIXON

Spoiler alert:  Nixon’s decorating crimes would not stand.  He resigned office and quit eating spaghetti on the same day – it’s all in the pasta now.

In a financial sense, I think everyone reading this post knows that something is horribly wrong with both the currency and the stock market.  The old line attributed to Gary Shilling rings true, however:  “The market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent.”  Just because you or I might have seen that real estate was overvalued in 2006, doesn’t mean that the market did.  Irrationality can persist longer than logic, especially when everyone says, “Real estate?  It never goes down.”

Okay, John, you’ve convinced me.  Now what?

Well, that’s up to you.  I can’t judge your situation unless you send me a few goats, some silver, and a throwout bearing for a 1973 GMC pickup.  But what I was hoping is that you’d look yourself and ask a few questions:

  • If you think that we’ll have unending prosperity and no shortages, what if you’re wrong?
  • If you think that the riots in (INSERT YOUR CITY HERE) won’t reach your neighborhood, what if you’re wrong?
  • If you think that things can’t get better than this mess we’re in, what if you’re wrong?
  • If you think that things can’t get worse than this mess we’re in, what if you’re wrong?
  • If you think that the stock market can’t go up, what if you’re wrong?

WENDYS

I was also wrong about my chiropractor.  I stand corrected.

The situation that the United States enjoyed from 1945 until recently was the most prosperous in (perhaps) the history of the world so far.  A good weather forecaster’s most accurate forecast is to say that tomorrow will be like today, obtuse (as in greater than 90 degrees).  Until it isn’t.  The hot spring day is followed up by the tornado – the winter storm strikes furiously from the north.

So, not knowing where the wind is coming from, I’m okay with it.  Hot today?  I’m fine.  Cold tomorrow?  Great.  Hurricanes?  Wonderful, let’s get to sea in our shrimp boat.

I guess the reason I’m so agreeable when the conditions of the world would indicate that I should be grumpy is that I’ve seen one thing again and again:  when I try to divine the future from my current situation, my track record is horrible, since the returns aren’t yet all in.

8BALL

Okay, I looked it up and the blue stuff is either water or alcohol.  Either way I wouldn’t drink it, since if it’s methanol, you won’t see what hit you.

So, evaluate where you are, ask yourself, “What if I’m wrong?” and live a life worth living.  I don’t get to choose all of the events in my life, but I certainly can choose how I react.

Unless I’m wrong about that.

Author: John

Nobel-Prize Winning, MacArthur Genius Grant Near Recipient writing to you regularly about Fitness, Wealth, and Wisdom - How to be happy and how to be healthy. Oh, and rich.

24 thoughts on “But What If You’re Wrong?”

    1. Never seen that before. It’s a mildly amusing bit of nonsense, buried in an immense, steaming mound of propaganda.
      I like the quote near the end, though. That’s the only worthwhile bit.

      1. Yes. Re-watch it and replace every iteration of “science” with history or literature and it still makes sense. Even if you mean science in the broadest sense: simply knowledge; itself it is not enough to prevent the Auschwitzes.

        Human beans gonna human.

  3. Wow. Like Reilly in National Treasure “Is this how you feel all the time?” As I tell my friend, a GREAT mechanic, “Does your head hurt from how smart you are?”
    You Sir, are a word smith beyond measure!
    Thank you for your writing efforts and sharing them with the rest of us.
    (Applause).

  4. I sincerely believe there is a 90% chance the civil war begins in earnest next year.
    If I’m wrong, things merely continue to get worse slowly.

  5. I hope I’m wrong because I expect:
    a.) a ginormous amount of money printing to deal with any and all problems
    b.) no more Republicans as President after 2020 (almost entered 2016, though that might have been the right call, I’m probably too optimistic here)
    c.) the CW2 book by Chittum to be mostly on the mark except for the actors. We appear to remain in Phase II of the four phases starting on p.78. Phase I appears to be a complete match. May-June 2020 made me revisit this work. Disturbingly prescient for 1996.

    p.s. John, any way to send money to Mr. Chittum other than Amazon?

  6. “Everything has its limit-iron ore cannot be educated into gold.”

    Mark Twain

  7. John so glad I found your site and really appreciate your sense of humor and musings. No matter how down I fell about the foul looking clouds approaching the future horizon, it is nice to have a witty contributor to brighten my day 3 times a week. I really appreciate your CWII updates. I finally woke up to where we were headed and started to prepare for a grim future in 2005. My wife is thankfully like minded and really appreciated having plenty of essentials during the recent COVID-19 panic. Still can’t figure out how toilet paper will protect you from the Kung Flu. Enjoy the Airplane Meme, as I always use the “picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue” at my job. Thanks again and really enjoy coming here.

    1. Glad you’re here! It’s generally a friendly lot, so chip in whenever you’d like to.

      Welcome!

  8. I’m not doing that much stocking up right now – we’re still using up the stuff we bought for the WuFlu lockdown (which, sadly, may be continuing for some time).

    What I am working on is the things I can have some control over:
    – My weight – long a problem, I’ve joined Weight Watchers (really should be named Mass Watchers). If one of the major morbidity factors for KungFlu death is obesity, I can improve my odds just with that.
    – Getting my Sh*t together – clearing out crap, making sure needed items are in good repair, getting more practice with my handheld radio, putting together a list of stuff for the BugOut bag, and getting our place in Ready to Sell shape (we may stay here, we might decide to re-locate – perhaps with family nearby). Whether or not we sell, we want to have the homestead ship-shape.
    – Pulling out some cash – not all of it, but a nice stash in cash we need to suddenly hit the road, and – for whatever the reason – the e-commerce systems don’t work. Also, make sure we have some barterables.
    – Keeping up to date on our medicals – immunizations, meds, current health records. Home remedies, bandages and first aid supplies.
    – Just replaced my aging Macbook with a Windows laptop – and, I have a Raspberry Pi, just in case, that can be tossed into a bag with keyboard and mouse. I’m putting together all my plugs/cords/peripherals in one location, ready to grab.
    – We’re updating our credentials – teaching licenses, insurance agent renewables/certifications, passports/drivers licenses – just in case we have to re-establish ourselves in a new location.

    I have NO idea what will happen – fortunately, I married a guy who is a Jack of All Trades. He is flexible enough to adapt, and not too proud to do whatever is needed. God love him.

    1. Great list – and a list that works no matter the future (mostly).

      Moving – certainly a possibility that most people don’t consider highly enough.

  9. Everyone should have a passing knowledge of “game theory”. It’s usually a bad strategy to choose a strategy that gives you the highest payoff, because your opponent (and you almost always have one, whether you know it or not) is likely to choose a strategy that prevents you from claiming the highest payoff. It’s often better to choose a strategy that forces you to accept the minimum loss, over all possible choices of your opponent. I hope that no one is insulted by my assumption that they’re trying to arrange the best outcome for themselves, and that my welfare is enhanced only if I choose a strategy that wins for me when they choose a strategy that wins for them. A “robust strategy” is one that minimizes the cost (a bad outcome) over the whole range of possible outcomes, even though that generally means foregoing the best possible outcome, even if you think it’s the most likely. Because you might be wrong about the most likely outcome.

    1. Game theory is probably something I should have mentioned – but yours is better than what I would have piped in with.

  10. I worked really hard over many years and expended many thousands of dollars to become a paramedic. I lasted 6 months in the job being unable to cope with certain jobs.

    I got a promotion at an employer that I fought for. Left a position that I enjoyed and paid well to earn marginally more money in a position I loathed completely. Of course I couldn’t go back to my old position and ended up leaving that employer to run my own small business which failed, I was lucky not to lose everything. I got a job that ticked all my boxes except one that I didn’t even consider. The employer was a complete See You Next Tuesday. So I left (the 13th person in that job in 10 months).

    Now I earn the basic wage but everything else is pretty good. I like who I work with. My job isn’t stressful. The commute isn’t *great* but meh, If annoying commute is my biggest problem I’ll accept that burden

    Kinda makes me wonder if being medically unfit for the Defence Force (due to football injury) wasn’t a blessing in disguise?

    1. The Mrs. quotes Audrey Hepburn from time to time: “You can have everything, you just can’t have it all at once.”

      It probably was a blessing. But when you’re in a hell job, get out. Not worth your life.

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