Category: Big Thoughts

Retirement Spreadsheets, The Apocalypse, and You

“Mama always said life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.” – Forrest Gump

little end

I have no idea where this came from.  But it’s exactly like the one they read to me when I was a wee Wilder.

I have an enormous spreadsheet.  Okay, it’s not really enormous – I’ve made and used much bigger ones at work to calculate the number of licks to get to the center of at Tootsie Roll® Tootsie Pop™.  The number of licks is 573,212 – and not one lick more or less.

This particular spreadsheet:

  • Has yearly calculations from the year 2014 (when I started it) until I turn 103 years old.
  • Divides my spending into 16 categories.
  • Has separate rates of inflation for each category (average inflation rate is 3.6%).
  • Has spots for assumed investment income as well as variable future income from work.
  • Has projected balances on 11 accounts, plus assumed rates of growth.
  • Graphically projects income and net worth . . . until I reach an age where 99.9% of people are dead.

I did use this spreadsheet for one pretty important decision – whether to change jobs back in 2014.  My option back then was to chuck my current job and take a job where I would have a risky proposition at making a big payout in three years or so.  The big payout would have been enough to retire on when combined with my net worth back then, for sure.  Attractive, right?

But it was risky.  How risky?  My first guess was that there was a pretty low probability that it would pay out.  How low?  Maybe 20% chance?

I ranked that against staying in my current job.  I did the math, and it looked like if I could keep my current job for three more years that I could take a differing job, say a high school teacher or flaming poodle-juggler (juggling flaming poodles, not juggling poodles while on fire – that would be stupid), and still keep my standard of living.  Three years of high stress for (relative) economic freedom, or at least more choices.

Hmmm.

I ended up not taking the job, and the risky part won – the job would have been worth much less than the job I would have left, plus the boss I would have worked for?  Yeah, he died three months later.  And my math was right – I’m about where I expected to be as far as net worth.

But I know my prediction is wrong:

  • It assumes that inflation is rather low for a long-ish period – something that I’m not sure is realistic in an economy where the government is attempting to print money as fast as Elon Musk says stupid things on Twitter®. Seriously, Elon, filter, dude, filter.
  • My investments earn about 2.5% every year, after inflation.
  • There’s nothing in there about a civil war or societal collapse.

Huh?  What investments make 2.5% every year after inflation?

No, I kid.

But there’s an entire subgroup of people of people who are preparing for societal collapse – preppers.  They even make television shows about them so that people who are stockpiling food for when the apocalypse comes advertise where they keep all that food.  Thankfully none of their neighbors will remember that after the apocalypse.

I guess (in a small way) that I’m a prepper, too.  The spreadsheet was my prepping – preparing for my career future – and my saving for eventual retirement is prepping, too.

Prepping is preparing, and when done right, it should prepare you for a range of options.  I could liquidate my retirement fortune and buy lots of oatmeal, bendie-straws and PEZ®, but in the sad event that Mad Max® is not the template for the future world, well, what do I do with all those bendie-straws now that California has made them illegal since they enacted common-sense straw registration.

In Houston, we rode out Hurricane Ike back in 2008.  Here is part of what I wrote then – you can find the full thing here (LINK) if you scroll down a bit:

Wow. Didn’t see that coming.

Oh, wait, we did. On radar, on the radio, on the Intertubes. As I said, it was unlikely that we’d stop until the power stopped or the beer ran out.

I still have beer.

At 6:20PM, the lights went out. They flickered on, off, on, off, on, then finally, utterly, off.

(Skipping long description of storm – and moving to the next day.)

We listened to the radio, which mainly told us that the power company wasn’t going to do anything that day (though, that afternoon, The Mrs. indicated that the power had flickered while The Boys and I went out to reconnoiter. Sorry that we missed it, but we did find that there was power on either side of us, not three miles away. No stores were open, and we had no phones. Thankfully, one of the previous announcements for hurricane preparedness had told us to have “food, water, and ammunition” (I am not making this up). We had food for a month, water for a similar time, plus more ammunition than the Pakistani army. We were set.

Eventually, washing came up. I avoided the subject. The Mrs. doused The Boy and Pugsley with coldish water (they howled) and then we ate cold Spaghetti-O’s® and sat around in the dim candlelight. Living in the 18th Century was rapidly losing its charm.

The radio had limited information. The hosts kept telling us to check their website for more information, even though 98% of their listeners were without power. Perhaps the average person has a hand-crank satellite Internet connection?

Then FEMA came on and indicated that you could contact them by calling (no phone!) or by Internet. The Mayor of Houston indicated that within 24 hours they would have 24 trucks of ice in, but he didn’t say where they’d be. He didn’t know.

A representative from our power provider indicated that we might be out of power forever, really, since they had no idea where that mythical lightning in the wire came from. It was really a mystery to them. They even indicated that changing a light bulb might require Federal authority. They began blaming FEMA for the problem. (In actuality, they said that it might be four weeks until the power was back on, in which case I would be looking for a suit of armor, a mighty steed, and a really cool battle-axe.)

On night one, The Mrs. and I had grilled hot dogs over candles. It worked okay, but our hot dogs tasted a bit like apple potpourri.  We started cooking over propane the next day.

The next morning I made coffee for The Mrs. and I. It improved our disposition greatly. Then I cooked ribeye steaks that I’d gotten on sale and frozen. That helped our disposition more. Ribeye for breakfast? Mmmmm.

I took The Boy and Pugsley to see if we could get a generator. This act in Houston (currently) would be like searching for Paris Hilton’s virginity – just not there anymore. Lowe’s® was open, and had a generator. Nah, just kidding. They had bottled water and some Chiclets©.

It appears that hurricanes smell like sex to fire ants (jerkusantus invictus). I got bit five times pulling branches out of my formerly fire-ant free backyard. I then unleashed a genocide of Biblical proportions on them, making the chemical warfare of WWI look like a Disney production of The Little Mermaid® in Candyland™.

I went back inside, and the power-gods deigned to tease us again. The lights flickered during dinner (T-bones and bratwurst saved from spoiling through immolation).

The utter lack of information was maddening. Anecdotal reports of FEMA commandeering truckloads of generators. Reports that Responders (I am ever so tired of that word) being stuck without food – you’da thunk they would have thought far enough ahead to stock up their patrol cars with Snickers®, pantyhose and Pez™ before heading to Houston. No. A Congresscritter was on the air complaining that the responders didn’t food, and wanted THE PEOPLE WHO HAD NO POWER TO COME TO THE NICE AIR CONDITIONED AND POWERED PLACE AND BRING THEM FOOD.

If you’re a responder without chow, you’re part of the problem, not the solution, bubba. I was not feeling sympathetic as I threw out $200 in spoiled food.

Power? That was a myth at this point, the electric company representative, and never really existed. Those things that you call “outlets”? Used for hanging meat to feed short animals. The representative suggested burning furniture to boil water to create steam to power a crude generator. I would have built one, but I had no power for my welder.

We went to bed early. Nice.  The next day I went to work, to an office with power. And ice. And TV. I charged the laptops so the kids could watch Garfield© DVD’s. I had hot coffee. A functioning microwave to dry my socks. I’m not sure why I came home. Oh, yeah, the fam.

I headed home. I saw . . . our porch lights on.

The mythical lightning had returned.

We were actually really prepared for Hurricane Ike.  And we were only out of power for a few days but in reality we could have handled several weeks.

And preppers are really prepared for emergencies.  Some of them have complete surgery kits, antibiotics, and armored vehicles on remote homesteads powered by solar power.  Plus they have gear to survive chemical warfare similar to what an army battalion could attack with after a late-night visit to Taco Bell®.

But the future is funny, because it’s squirmy.  It won’t be as you expect or predict:

  • You might have higher inflation.
  • A totalitarian government might arise when Chelsea Clinton is named Pope®.
  • You might rip the crotch of your jeans during a softball game.
  • The Swiss might finally snap and launch a surprise nuclear attack at the rest of the world.

Each situation that you might run into requires a different response, but in the meantime you have to plan to live a life, but have plans to respond to most reasonable situations.

Should you plan for the stores to be out of food for a week?  Sure.  Should you plan for no power for a week?  Absolutely – a big ice storm can take out the power for months in some locations.

But if the stores were closed for months?  Yeah, that’s a response that’s categorically different, and depends a LOT on where you live.  I live where most of the food comes from – there are grain elevators and cows all around.  In New York City?  Not so much.  But like a wedding between Vladimir Putin and California Governor Jerry Brown, though possible, it’s just not very likely.

Are there general rules to a major disaster?  Maybe.  Here’s a first pass at some based on my experiences where I was in situations that approximated a disaster:

  1. Be flexible. You don’t know the future, but if you’re alert, and think, you can guess at some probably things that might
  2. Be the first out of the door. When it’s obvious that your situation has gone to hell, get out.    Get in line for the re-routed plane.  Get a rental car.  Being late makes everyone in front of you your competition.  Don’t put yourself in that position.
  3. Understand that gone is gone. The universe doesn’t care if it’s not right.  The universe doesn’t care if it’s not fair.  And during an emergency, neither should you.  Your plans are changed.  Your house is on fire.  Your PEZ® has been stolen by the ghost of Tom Petty in a kimono.  Deal with the situation, not your feelings.
  4. Understand that the old rules may not apply. Again, deal with the situation, not your feelings.
  5. Regions matter. Your behavior should tie to the location you’re in.  I’d rather be in central Iowa a year after an apocalypse than Chicago on a Tuesday.
  6. Values and prices change rapidly. $10 for a bag of ice is a bargain if it saves $200 in food.
  7. Laying food and supplies in before an event makes you smart, and removes you from being part of the problem. Doing it after the disaster makes you a hoarder and part of the problem.  Looters and hoarders get shot.
  8. Preppers look like hoarders to hungry people. Don’t talk about your stuff, or sit on the back deck having a ribeye when your neighbor is boiled grain from the silo near the railroad tracks.
  9. Make sure you account for taxation when looking at your investment gains in your retirement portfolio.

Immigration, Freedom, Wealth, Corruption, and More Cool Maps

“Yeah. See, my cousin is getting married down at TJ, man, so he calls the immigration on himself.”

“But why?”

“So he can get a free ride, man.” – Up in Smoke

shaguer

This will all make sense, baby, trust me.

This is the second post that I’ve really thought a very long time about, and read a lot about.  Illegal immigration is a difficult topic, and one that’s certainly one of the most polarizing topics in the country today.

I’ll start out with the end conclusion:  unrestricted illegal immigration is devastating both to the illegal alien and to the country entered, and is a phenomenon sure to cause amazing pain across the world.  Now that the Band-Aid™ is ripped off the wound, let me further note that illegal immigration is currently considered the top problem in the United States, and certainly is up there in many European nations.  I’m pretty sure it’s not considered a problem in California, since, you know, weed.

I won’t attempt to discuss specifics of this issue from a global situation – in reality, even though I read a LOT of news, I’ll admit my knowledge of the on-the-ground impacts in Europe is limited.  I could talk about it, but it would be the equivalent of a nerdy dolphin talking about hang gliding – sure I’ve read about it . . . .

“But,” you say, “John Wilder, this is a nation of immigrants!”

Nope.  Not even close.

What became the United States was a colony, specifically a colony of Great Britain.  A colony isn’t a group of immigrants, it’s the growth of the home country by extension.  In this case, the original colonies were founded by British companies operating under British law and eventually British colonies.  The British brought their independent legal system, common law, system of representative democracy, religion, and culture, or at least that’s what the Saturday morning cartoons said.

You may or may not like the British, but the places they colonized remain the most free places outside of Europe.  Here’s the Freedom House map of political freedoms in the world today (CC by SA, 4.0):

1280px-Freedom_house_freedom_of_the_world_2018_map

Thankfully, they didn’t mandate that you drive on the wrong side of the road to be free.

shaguer

Groovy, baby.

And British culture and religion formed and shaped the politics that led to the American Revolution.  The belief in ordered freedom, that laws stood above all men regardless of birth (i.e., a King was subject to law as much as a commoner), that commerce should be fair, and corruption was to be frowned on.

corruption

Amazingly, you can see that lack of corruption is tied to . . . wealth!  Amazing!  Part of the way to being wealthy is to not be corrupt.  Who could have predicted that? CC-BY-4.0-DE, Transparency International

walled world

Here’s a map that shows where the wealth is, based on this website (LINK) by Theo Deutinger.

Let’s sum this up:  The British language, culture, and religion was the vat that held the Special Sauce® that became America.  In this particular “melting pot” it was British culture, plus the inheritance of Western Civilization that produced the slightly different culture we have here, and it fits in pretty well with the rest of the productive world.  The United States is not a nation of immigrants; it’s a former colony that has created a variation on the themes that have (so far) been the most successful the world has ever seen.  (Note to the Chinese instructor in the year 2230 making fun if this comment, it seemed to make sense at the time.)

So why not have immigration?

Well, I never said no immigration, even though immigration is by its very nature creates tension, and is part of the basis for the balkanized United States that I wrote about in (The Coming Civil War (United States), Cool Maps, and Uncomfortable Truths) and still feel is likely.

Want me to prove that?

The reaction to the following ad, when it appeared in 2008 was, to put it mildly, relatively positive south of the border, and relatively negative north of the border.

vodkamexico

The tensions are currently greatest with Mexico since that country is putting the largest number of unassimilated immigrants into the country, but at different times the tensions have run high with other ethnic groups – the Irish certainly, and around the turn of the last century immigration from Eastern and Southern Europe led directly to the Immigration Law of 1924.

This particular law mainly set ceilings that aimed to preserve the existing ethic makeup of the United States – of particular note, immigration of Hispanics was less regulated, as they were considered not as Hispanic, but as European.

Eventually this policy was reversed in the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, which led to an increasing proportion of the foreign born in the country – now at over 13%.  This was about the proportion that led to the Immigration Law of 1924.

immigration-population-highest

But hey, if they’re legal, they’re American, right?

Well, no.  It takes more than just a stamp on a piece of paper to be an American.  Let’s run a thought experiment – The Wilder family decides to move to . . . someplace in Western Europe, say, Denmark, mainly because they love hot dogs and pastry.  We become citizens!  Are we Danish?  No.  We’re Americans who moved to Denmark and became citizens.  Well, our kids are Danish, right?  No.  They’re the “kids of the Americans.”  They’ve been raised by people whose culture is clearly not Danish.  Okay, their kids?

Maybe.  And that’s in Denmark, where we have genetic background from, and it’s a culture pretty similar in corruption levels and social standards to the United States.  I’ll note that Denmark has just put into place restrictions on immigrants who will have difficulty assimilating to Danish culture – Denmark isn’t a big country in either area or population, and the Danes like Denmark just the way it is, thank you very much.

denmark

Being a citizen is more than a piece of paper – it requires assimilation, it requires ties.  It requires buying into the culture and religion (not that you have to join that religion, but you have to respect the way that it forms and shapes the psychology of the country).

And that doesn’t mean that having the desire to “get to a better place” gives anyone the right to move to a new country.  That economic incentive would thus justify that 75% of the world would have the right to move to a Western country.  Also, if the immigrant is wanting to come here only for economics but is otherwise uninvested in the culture?  They will bring their old culture with them – the very same culture that strangled their economic opportunity at home – the borders of the United States doesn’t hold mythical properties that make those that show up prosperous – the culture and religion do.  The United States isn’t a magic bullet – it’s just got a great combination of freedom plus restraint, planning, and trust that derive from religion and culture.

And large clumps of unassimilated immigrants aren’t really Americans, regardless of where they were born or what their passport says.  Technology has allowed foreign-born populations to live with television stations from home every minute of the day – learning English is now not required.  And since they don’t learn English, the only jobs open to them are decidedly lower tier.  This keeps them on the lowest rung of the economic ladder, and also displaces lower-skilled Americans.  The relatively recent immigration enforcement phenomenon has led to much lower unemployment.

wee britain

An example of one such cultural enclave in the United States that must be rooted out.

People from different cultures also assimilate at different rates – back to the Denmark example.  Danish culture would be pretty familiar to the Wilder family, but if we were to try to assimilate into, say, Chinese culture?  We know nothing useful for assimilation there.  Literally nothing.  The Mrs. and I would be rather hopeless, The Boy and Pugsley less so, but every day for them would be a titanic struggle to assimilate to a 3,000 year old culture with vastly different norms.  But that’s unlikely to be an issue – China, a country of over a billion people, approved only about 1,500 green cards last year.  Like an invitation to arm wrestle Queen Elizabeth®, those green cards amazingly hard to get.

But let’s ignore reality: what happens if everyone in the world moved to China?

Well, if you desire diversity – that would be the death of it.  Diversity doesn’t flourish when you pull everyone from every culture into the same country – that’s the exact opposite of diversity, and the result (after the inevitable wars) is homogeneity – a single monoculture.  And diversity has huge value, because as different populations have time to grow in (relative) isolation, interesting genetic things can happen, like clusters of genius, or clusters of resistance to certain diseases, or the near superhuman powers of the Sherpas or the Wilder clan.

Here’s what I just said, put more eloquently by physicist Freeman Dyson from his 1979 book Disturbing the Universe:

It is not just an inconvenient historical accident that we have a variety of languages. It was nature’s way to make it possible for us to evolve rapidly. Rapid evolution of human categories demanded that social and biological progress go hand in hand. Biological progress came from random genetic fluctuations that could be significant only in small and genetically isolated communities. To keep a small community genetically isolated and to enable it to evolve new social institutions, it was vitally important that the new members of the community could be quickly separated from their neighbors by barriers of language.

So our emergence as an intelligent species may have depended crucially on the fact that we have this astonishing ability to switch from Proto-Indo-European to Hittite to Hebrew to Latin to English and back to Hebrew within a few generations.

It is likely that in the future our survival and our further development will depend in an equally crucial way on the maintenance of cultural and biological diversity. In the future as in the past, we shall be healthier if we speak many languages and are quick to invent new ones as opportunities for cultural differentiation arise. We now have laws for the protection of endangered species.

In many cases the smartest and most able people come on over to the United States.  That benefits the United States (in many cases), but what does it do to the country that sent those people over?  Does it make India better to send over people who are smart programmers and great leaders, or does India suffer from this? 

It destabilizes India, which, in turn, makes the world a less stable place.

The current mass-migration of peoples on the planet, regardless of their aims and difficulties, will end in violence and tears – there is no instance of a stable multicultural society in the history of mankind.  The longer it goes on, the more devastating the end will be.  But I’ve stopped worrying about that.  Too scary.  Now I just worry about fashion trends.

Your Asset is Somebody Else’s Debt. Oh, and Easter Island. And PEZ.

“Easter Island was a practical joke that got out of hand.” – 3rd Rock from the Sun

easterpez

And now you know what those statues are for!  Found on Twitter – I have no idea who to attribute this to.

Many of the things that you think of as assets are, to someone else, debts:

  • Your salary is a debt that your employer owes you – you’re a liability on their books.
  • Payments like Social Security or Medicare or any other government payment – is a debt that’s funded by taxpayers.
  • Your bank deposits are a liability on the books of the bank – technically you gave them a loan that they would have to pay back at some point.

This goes on and on, but I think this gives a flavor of the concept that debts are double-sided.  Your debt is someone else’s asset, and vice versa.  I’ve heard people (especially after a few beers) slur at the ceiling that the debt the economy is facing is, somehow, easily a solvable problem.  “Jus’ eliminate the debt!”  This is often followed by, “gonna be right back – gotta get rid of some of this beer.”

Well, if the bank did that, every one of my checks would bounce, which tends to irritate me, since by eliminating all of their debt, they eliminate all of my deposits.  Yikes!

And if the government just said “debt’s gone – we forgive ourselves,” everyone who owned government bonds would be broke.

It’s interesting that this concept (asset requires a debt) only applies to financial instruments.  If I own a car, or a really cool PEZ® dispenser and have NO loan against it, well, that asset is just an asset.  It’s not someone else’s liability.  This is rather crucial because the average dollar bill that is available in the United States is borrowed into existence.  Take one of them out – look at it.  It’s called a Federal Reserve Note.  You’re actually walking around with a bit of somebody else’s debt in your pocket.

This wasn’t always the case.  In fact, as recently as 1963, silver certificates were issued.  These were just called . . . dollars.  And they implied that you were still the holder of a debt, but the debt was payable in silver.  Which is way better than a current dollar, which is payable in . . . another dollar.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Look, Ma, no Fed!

Again, if I own an asset, there’s just no debt that goes against it.  Keep that in mind . . . .

Okay, how much debt is out there?  Well, I was reading John Maudlin’s post (LINK) and he had a number.  It was a LOT.  Like $250,000,000,000,000.  That’s $250 trillion dollars.  And to think, some people don’t make that much in a year!

So who owes this debt?

Well, corporations owe a huge chunk.  And why not?  Governments around the world have been force-feeding them money since 2008.  Corporations, per Maudlin, own 41% of the increase.  But the big owner?  Governments.  You can fiddle around with a maps and see how doomed your country is by going here (LINK).

As a note, the United States has a combined total of over $47 trillion in combined government, corporate, and household debt.  If we didn’t eat or go to the movies or do anything else, we could pay it off in 2.5 years . . . .

But what happens when the debtor fails?

  • If the government fails? No Social Security.  No free PEZ® monthly.  No food stamps.
  • If the company fails? No salary.
  • If the bank fails? All of your money above $250,000 in a particular bank vaporizes.  There are exceptions, but you can sort that out for yourself.

How likely is any of that to happen?

Governments fail all the time – and their currencies, historically, fail even more especially when we’ve reached the point where most currencies are backed by nothing.  A silver certificate promised a certain amount of silver.  Our current world currencies just promise that they’re worth a dollar, or a euro, or a ruble, or a yen – they have no intrinsic value.  So, yeah.  This really happens.  And what’s one way to get out of debt, if you’re a government?  Print lots of money.  Oh, and your money isn’t worth so much after they pull that little trick.  Again.

Companies can’t print money, or at least not for very long before they get Enron®-marched off to jail.  But companies fail or disappear at a pretty significant rate.  The average lifespan of a company, big or small?  10 years – then they get sold off or fail.  Some, of course, last longer, like Sears®.  Oh . . . nevermind.

Banks rarely fail so that your assets disappear, at least they haven’t since the Roosevelt presidency.  For that to happen would call into question the entire financial system – so governments will print money by the bucket load so banks don’t fail.  Make cars?  You can fail.  Make burgers?  You can fail.  Loan money at interest?  Your doors will never close – worst case some other bank will be enticed to take you over.

One thing, as Maudlin mentions, is government hasn’t ever taxed actual wealth like your pile of silver or your vintage collection of Sarah Michelle Gellar photographs.  Maudlin’s pretty convinced that the next debt crisis will be so big and difficult that governments will look at all the medium-size piles of wealth around the country, and start just plundering that like a pirate on a vacation.  They’ll never get the big guys – those folks will move their money to places that even the IRS and God won’t be able to find.  Like Easter Island.  Or, (shudder) Cleveland.

REMEMBER, JOHN WILDER IS NOT A FINANCIAL PLANNER.  I do hold positions in US Currency, and will probably get of some dollars in the next few days to establish positions in PEZ™, maybe a nice bottle of wine, or a steak.

Hawaii note mentioned in comments:

silvercert

Booze, Aquifers, and the Great 2018 Mountain Trip (Part I)

“She left here to find a fellow named Dee Boot in Ogallala.  She never even looked at her baby.” – Lonesome Dove

dav

Our trailer.  Paint job by The Mrs. – it was either this or The Mystery Machine from Scooby Doo.  I hope that Paramount® doesn’t sue us . . .

Following are the results of my essential research related to this blog, as we went on a cross country field data gathering trip.  Or, if the IRS isn’t reading this, a vacation.  The whole “essential research” sounds way more tax deductible than “vacation” – though rumor has it that if only I could get a job in Congress, the FBI, or the Treasury Department is that paying taxes is a thing that you can safely ignore.

One of the joys of a cross-country camping trip is planning.  Our idea is to minimize the number of things that we’ll need to buy once we get there, since the closest place to our campground to buy anything is a convenience store that’s a 30 mile (243 kilometer) round trip, and their idea of good wine is Mad Dog 20/20®.

MD2020

Pictured:  A beverage.  Not pictured:  A beverage that I would drink.  Photo CC 2.0 SA by Philosophygeek, via Wikimedia

I had heard through my daughter, Alia S. Wilder, that a forest fire had popped up along our route.  I checked the route the night before, and our usual route was indeed closed – the small fire had blossomed like Star Wars® into a huge dumpster fire.  Google® maps are nice, I could compare alternate routes and try to pick the best one.  The best (of all of our alternatives) took due south of the fire, but would add hundreds of miles and thus over three hours to our journey.  As the base journey was already over 12 hours, this makes for a very long car trip.

I told The Mrs. of our route change.  She groaned.  On a car trip that starts at 12 hours, each additional hour of travel feels like two.  Or three.  And since our fuel consumption (once we hooked up to the trailer) was roughly 3 gallons per mile, unless we towed a small refinery behind us, we’d have to stop for gas at lease every 120 miles, versus my normal 420 miles between stops.  During many a trip I’ve reminded my children that nobody has died of a burst bladder in the United States since 1923.  I don’t know if that’s a fact, but it sure sounds like one.  Pugsley, The Boy and I did one trip where we stopped . . . only when we needed gas or food, literally hours between stops.  Pure perfection from a Dad standpoint.

But we would stop every 120 miles on this trip – no more than two hours between stops.  While that is nice and bladder-friendly, it slows down the trip – each stop takes at least 10 minutes.  Also, pulling the trailer would limit our maximum speed, probably down to the trotting speed of a small horse.

With that sense of foreboding, knowing the trip would be fifteen hours or so, we set off.

Less than 10 miles from our house, a car drove by the camper and made the “Live Long and Prosper” sign from Star Trek®.  It was great.  A few hours later, a car also did this at 70 miles per hour, and nearly wrecked.  I’m thinking he thought it was really cool, nearly cool enough to die for?  Yes.  It’s that cool.

maytheforce

About two hours into the trip (after the first stop, or maybe even the second), The Mrs. looked at me and noted my pale blue shirt, bandana, aviator sunglasses, and hat (though mine is brown) and said . . . “You’re dressed like Sam Neill from Jurassic Park.”  I laughed.

jurassic sam

Thankfully, no dinosaurs were injured during the writing of this post.

Then The Mrs. and I both had the same thought, namely the following video.  Even if you hate embedded videos, I highly suggest you give this one a shot.

 

If only I could play the flute that well . . .

Travelling is one way to see the world through different eyes.  One thing we noticed is the prevalence of center pivot irrigation as we drove into drier territory.  Center pivot irrigation?  What kind of sorcery is that?

dav

A center pivot sprinkler.  Photo Credit:  The Boy.  He granted me a perpetual non-exclusive license to use this however I wanted in exchange for not abandoning him 300 miles from home.

Essentially, center pivot irrigation is a huge lawn sprinkler, up to (the largest I’ve seen) a half of a mile long, that rotates . . . around the center.  So, if you have a square mile of land, you could water a one mile circle of land with a single sprinkler.  Through the magic of mathematics, that’s about 78% of the square mile, but you don’t have to haul a 2500’ hose around – the sprinkler just keeps going ‘round and ‘round, irrigating whatever you decided to plant.  If I were a farmer, I’d plant whatever plant makes steak.  Because, as a vegan, steak is my favorite vegetable.  Especially medium rare.  Or, maybe bratwurst vines?

But back to irrigation (because it’s sooooo exciting).  Center pivot irrigation was invented in 1940, and allows farmers to grow crops in places that don’t have enough water for them (typically).  Even though there isn’t a lot of rain there, under the ground in the west, there are billions and billions of gallons of water in the Ogallala aquifer.  (Aquifer is a fancy name for an underground refrigerator where water is stored at 42˚F (-30˚C.)

ogallalathick

Ogallala water thickness, via USGS via Wikipedia, CC-SA 3.0

By pumping water into the center pivot system, farming of really water intensive crops, like corn, is possible in areas that would normally be too dry.  This is awesome!  Technology makes life good for everyone – water from the Ogallala aquifer allows for the production of over $20 billion of food and cotton each year.  Thank you, Ogallala for the ribeye trees that you grow!

ogallaladecline

Ogallala depletion, via USGS (public domain)

But the Ogallala drains over time, and it can take up to 6,000 years to recharge.  In fact, the Ogallala is nearly gone in Texas (though it looks just fine in Nebraska).  I would make a joke that Texas sucks, but in this case it really does – it has sucked up the largest quantity of Ogallala water that hasn’t been replaced.  Places that used to be productive farmland are now turning back to dry land crops or cattle pasture.  Good news?  Corn in Nebraska for the next few thousand years . . .

One of the bigger pressures nowadays is to grow corn.  Why, is there a Dorito® shortage?  No.  Corn can be converted to ethanol.  Normally I’m for any production of ethanol, but in this case, they don’t drink it, they BURN it.  Heresy!

dig

Here is a distillery where ethanol is made.  And then (sob) mixed with gasoline where it’s burned in car engines.  The Mrs. was pretty sure that despite that pesky bill of rights, that Homeland Security would not be happy about me posting a picture of an ethanol plant because of freedom or something.

Why are we putting all that corn into gasoline?

Is it cheaper?  No.   Not really – ethanol is “renewable” so that makes it awesome!  And since it’s renewable, we should pump down the Ogallala aquifer faster!

Let’s be clear – ethanol is mandated to be in gasoline NOT because it’s a government transfer payment to thousands of (voting) farmers by forcing a market for corn that wouldn’t exist.  It’s because it’s good for us.  Right?  I mean, ethanol will stop global warming, obesity, and, I am told, the eventual thermodynamic death of the universe through all useful energy being lost to entropy.  Go ethanol!

dav

Here, however, is water that looks so inviting!  I would have buried my head in it and drank deeply, except I noticed that pesky sign.  Ruins all the fun.  Photo credit:  The Boy.

Next (in the series):  The Worst Convenience Store on Our Trip plus 151,000, The Mountains, An IHOP™ Tease and a Short Turn Radius, More Convenience Store Shenanigans, Ahab and Griswold

 

 

 

 

Why the media is driving you crazy (with all the Tom Cruise and Tommy Chong you can eat, but only in Wisconsin)

“You rang?” – The Addams Family

tom cruise2

You can see Hollywood® height in action here.  In reality, Tom Cruise is only four inches (like 10 centimeters) tall!  He’s a pocket celebrity!

One criticism I have of the media is that it sets an expectation of the way the world should be.  The media does this in a silly way:  single girls in New York City own 3,000 square foot apartments and work as flunkies at the local ad agency as the wacky receptionist.  The media indicates that Tom Cruise is 6’2” (37 meters) tall, even though we have pictures to prove that Tom Cruise fits as carry-on luggage in a 737.

tomcruise

So, Tom Cruise is shorter than the average height of a 3rd grade girls’ basketball team.  Doesn’t matter, they haven’t carded him since 2015!

The biggest bias, however is that of the news writers, Internet publishers and national broadcasters.  Every piece of news is advocacy.  How can I justify this bold statement?  Besides the incredible mixture of Pinot Noir and steroids flowing through my veins, only awaiting the caffeine as the activator chemical, I offer this bit of evidence:

When The Mrs. was involved in news broadcasting, she selected the stories that would be covered in the broadcast.  And, since The Mrs. didn’t like the NBA®, NBA™ news never made it to the broadcast.  Never.  Michael Jordan might have had LeBron James’ love child in a Swiss robot factory with Larry Bird as the godfather and she wouldn’t have broadcast it.  Instead?  The Mrs. inserted stories about a sport she did like, NHL™ hockey, even though there wasn’t a professional hockey team within a ten hour drive from where the broadcasts originated, and ice had to be imported from Utah, which, strangely forbade that the ice be properly mixed with bourbon.

Even though the stories themselves were without bias, the selection of the stories wasn’t.  Although the topic The Mrs. didn’t wish to cover was (and is) exceedingly trivial, it sank home with me:  the gatekeepers choose the stories and the narratives.  The gatekeepers do so with the express purpose of furthering their viewpoint and silencing dissenting evidence.  And even though much of the news today has a significant bias in straight news reporting, it’s the stories that you never hear that also contribute to that bias.

How bad is the bias?  Only 7% of journalists are Republican.  You can simply view election night footage from the 2016 presidential election to verify that.  And, I think much of the street-level misbehavior in recent days has been a reaction to the increasingly polarized news.  Much of the news media we used to consume in the past was locally sourced and sustainable and gluten-free.  It was the town newspaper, which could be had in most small towns and was run by the local boy who decided that ink was in his veins and he wanted to put a daily out to the locals.  Heck, even a hamlet of 1100 people had a newspaper that had an 80 year history in my memory.  It was a small paper, but everyone got it.

The values that the local newspaper editor/publisher/journalist/typesetter put in the paper mirrored the local values for over 200 years.  These values were always tempered and supplemented with news from outside the small town – the town didn’t exist in a vacuum.

Now many of those papers have vanished, and others have long since stopped being the local source for in-depth news.  You read the local paper to figure out who won the softball game, and which kid was on (or not on) the honor roll.

What’s replaced it?  Television and news via the internet.

Where does television come from?  New York and Los Angeles are the two big metropolitan areas that are the headquarters for the major broadcasters.  And the internet?  It’s got San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles and Seattle as the hubs for the major news operations.  None of the major locations that now serve the majority of news to Americans is on the right – each of these cities is exceptionally far left.  I know it doesn’t seem that way to those of you that live there, but, good heavens, those governments have more regulations than the old Soviet Union (even though I just made that fact up, I’m pretty sure it’s true – I heard that Stalin® was arrested in Seattle for trying to open a lemonade stand – too capitalist.  Plus Stalin™ couldn’t prove the lemons were free range, vegan, locally sourced, and carbon neutral.  He claimed Lenin© ate that paperwork.  Stupid Lenin®.

And thus, when Donald Trump was elected president, through the process as outlined in the Constitution and followed since George Washington was drinking brandy by the fire at Mt. Vernon with the Hooters® girls, calls immediately came to “restore our democracy.”  People took to the streets to protest a president before he had been inaugurated – and immediate calls for his impeachment went out.

Why?

The left had been living in a lie, sort of like the mirror the Kardashians® keep on their wall.  In this world, Donald Trump is a monster – all of their media, all of their news told them so (just like they said the same things about George W. Bush™, who is now totes okay).  Trump was not a political opponent with a set of positions that were backed by millions and millions of decent, smart, hardworking Americans.  No.  He was an evil villain who wants to eat children and send them to his hellish pits under the Earth to mine for Trumpenite, a substance known to cause really unusual hair.  However, per my last count, he has eaten no children, nor put any into concentration camps (despite what the media might say, and they told me the Arctic would be ice free by 2014, so, you know, my trust level is low).

But no one who reads this will be able to do a thing about it until November, 2020.

The media frenzy against all things Trump, the bias, has whipped millions of normally sane people into a rabid frenzy to the point that they defend Haiti as a great place to send their toddlers out to play in the streets, point out that MS-13 murderers are probably great neighbors as long as they don’t move to the suburbs, and come to the conclusion that Kim Jong-Un either is awesome or such an evil genius that he blew up his own nuclear facility just to prove that he didn’t need nuclear weapons to have nuclear weapons.  Or something.

And this is the point of this blog – the inability to deal with reality is just . . . unhealthy.

Take a deep breath, if you’re on the left.  Step back.  Trump has done something you like.   Admit it.  It’s out there.

It’s also a paradox – standards and expectations are necessary for excellence in anything.  There must be a burning desire to turn “what is” into “what could be.”  But when that same desire is thwarted because no reasonable action will make any difference, the matter is beyond your control.  This leads to the profound sense of helpless misery that many on the left are feeling about the election (that happened in 2016!) – and that many on the right are feeling about, say, Robert Mueller®, who starred in the 1960’s comedy series The Addams Family as Lurch©, the butler.

mueller

Is it just me, but shouldn’t he say this every single time he testifies at Congress?

And not one person who reads this can do anything about Mueller, either.

And not one person who this who is in a frenzy about either Trump or Mueller is at all healthy.

I’ve written about this before in The Coming Civil War (United States), Cool Maps, and Uncomfortable Truths and I think it’s tearing us apart even faster than I had originally thought.  I try not to take sides, but the left has really inflamed this situation to a point of incivility worse than any episode I’ve ever seen of The Big Bang Theory (spoiler, I only saw one, and it was awful).

All of this brings me back to The Mrs.:  If I come home and have the expectation that she’s arranged my PEZ® dispensers into the outline of the Danish coastline like I asked her to do, and find out she hasn’t, I have four choices:

  • Get as angry as a liberal restaurant owner at Sarah Huckabee Sanders, or
  • Appoint a special counsel to investigate her, or
  • Riot in the streets that Denmark is really a part of Germany, and should be open to all Germans, or
  • Don’t care and do it myself.

I assure you that I’m a last bullet point kind of guy.  Earlier in my life, I might have had higher expectations, but then I realized – if The Mrs. has a hot meal ready for me when I get home, I should be grateful.  I should say thanks.  If she doesn’t, I know where the fridge is, and there’s probably a good reason we don’t have dinner ready.  Or not.  If I let myself get as twisted as Bill Clinton’s lingerie collection, well, I’ll be unhappy AND hungry AND have thong marks on my butt until they bury me in 40 years or so.

So, I don’t have that expectation.  I have the expectations that The Mrs. is faithful, holds our family relationship as at least her number two priority in life (there has to be room for a higher entity, and I don’t mean Tommy Chong), and that The Mrs. flushes the toilet so I can pretend The Mrs. doesn’t poop.  The Mrs. meets those criteria, so everything else is groovy.

chong

I loved these Cheech and Chong when I was a kid.  As I understand it Tommy Chong’s toenail clippings are considered a controlled substance in every state except Wisconsin.

One amazingly significant source of frustrations for people is looking and the world, and seeing it as . . . wrong.  If there’s a solution or something you can do to change it, then work to change it.  If there’s nothing you can do to change it, it just is a fact.  So, relax.  Breathe deep.  You can make it.  And remember to vote on the first Wednesday in November of 2020!

THIS IS NOT POLITICAL, HEALTH, OR VOTING INFORMATION.  Seriously.  How could you think that?

2018 Predictions – Second Quarter Review

“You want a prediction about the weather, you’re asking the wrong Phil. I’ll give you a weather prediction: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last for the rest of your life.” – Groundhog Day

peakoil

Yeah, I guess this might have been wrong, since I now bathe in gasoline since it’s cheaper than bottled water or milk.

Okay, in an experiment in economic forecasting, I decided to do some financial predictions for 2018 (2018 Predictions – Wealth).  Why?  It seems like it’s what bloggers do:  they predict things poorly, and I decided I could do that poorly.  Even more poorly than television forecasters, but that’s hard – they don’t put what they say into print, so they change it every week.

I also promised a quarterly report card, and this is the second one.  So how are my predictions matching with reality?

Mixed bag.  One real stinker, the rest are still possible, at least in several games of Fallout™ that Pugsley has played.  Fallout© is just like real life, right?

fallout

But please note that when I explain what I think happened, I’m not trying some sort of argument to the effect of:  “I would have been right, but . . .” followed by some lame excuse.  No.  If I was wrong, I was wrong (to date, the year isn’t done, remember?) but much like a goldfish, I do have the ability to learn.

Oh, what were we talking about?  Fish flakes?  No.  Bitcoin.  Which might be worth less than fish flakes.

kelvin prediction

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is on life support, and a lawsuit has been filed in district court to let this prediction die, but this was overruled by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals (which also recently ruled that Kim Jong Un *must* restart his nuclear program, and, in general do stuff to prove Democrats Were Right All Along).  It is by far my worst prediction.  It has all of the risks shown below:

  • It (may) be vulnerable to hacking since it’s based on an NSA product – there may be hidden back doors. Or, the NSA might just hack your computer and steal all your Bitcoin that way.  It’s like doing taxes, but you don’t have to file.
  • Wal-Mart® doesn’t take it.   How many Bitcoin for that Chinese made grill?  Nobody knows.
  • It’s as volatile as a bi-polar ex-wife on meth. It looks more promising than Johnny Depp’s career.
  • The IRS has categorized each Bitcoin transaction as a taxable event.   Nobody keeps those kinds of records, and that is an absolute block for people wanting to use it like you’d use a dollar bill.  That moves it from a currency to an investment vehicle.  Use as a currency inherently raises the value of Bitcoin, but this moves it away from that.

My prediction in December:

“I think it might have more to fall before it becomes stabilized, maybe to $10,000.  But I predict it would be higher than $20,000 next December.” (June 2018 John Wilder says:  “December John Wilder was not stoned.  But that at least would have been a good excuse for this stupid prediction.”)

Second Quarter Scorecard:

How’s that working so far?  In the first quarter, it was bouncing around my $10,000 prediction for the stabilization number.  Now?  $6,000.  Ugly.  And there’s no reason it can’t drop more.

katyperry

Is $20,000 still possible?  Yes.  And Katy Perry© might win the Nobel® Prize in physics.

The Stock Market

In December I said:  “The biggest risks are North Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, with anything that created higher oil prices being the biggest risk.  Chances of impeachment this year?  Nearly zero.”  To show you how much the world has moved on, I struck out all of the things that didn’t go wrong this year.  Things are, generally, going very well indeed.

New Risks Since December Prediction

  • Democrats taking the House of Representatives in November – this is a risk because it greatly increases political uncertainty. That’s a huge risk the market has not priced in.  October will be the most volatile month this year, if the Republicans keep the House.  If they lose the house – November will be a very difficult month in the Market.  But if Pelosi keeps talking Trump keeps Trumping – the Republicans have nothing to fear.
  • How much will the Fed increase interest rates (see below)?
  • Is Facebook® in trouble for data? Facebookâ„¢ might be the spark that melts the market down . . . or not.

2018 Prediction on the S&P 500:

“Up.  Not 24%.  But up, say, 10%.  2019?  We’ll see.”

Second Quarter Scorecard:

So far, year to date, it’s now down 1.8%.  No real problem there – it can still easily hit my 10% mark.  And if the Republicans win bigly in November?  10% is an easy achievement.  This tale will be told in October and November, I think.

diseaseprediction

Interest Rates:

We’re recovering from the longest period of low interest rates in history.  All of history.  It really won’t make a difference, but the Federal Reserve simply must increase rates so that we can pretend that the money isn’t all made up.  Eventually if there’s a credible alternative (Bitcoin? Swiss Francs?) the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates . . . a lot.

If it’s too much this year, we’ll enter a recession – maybe right away.  I don’t think that’s likely in 2018.  Trump’s Fed chair will want to raise the rates – after this election.  Maybe right after, so the economic pain is over and done with by the 2020 election.

2018 Prediction on the Federal Reserve Rate:

“Up slightly.  Eventually (2019, 2020?) up a lot.”

Second Quarter Scorecard:

The Fed funds rate has gone up, 0.25% and will likely go up more.  If that doesn’t sound like much, you’re wrong – it went up from 1.75% to 2.0%.  That’s increasing rates by 14%, and it’s nearly certain the Fed will increase rates two or three more times this year.

Mortgage rates have gone up from 3.95% to 4.52%.  Not a lot, but there will be more to come . . .   Seems in line with my prediction (so far).

computer

Gold/Silver:

2018 Prediction on the Gold/Silver:

“Meh.  Wanders back and forth.  Probably ends the year +/-10% of where it started.  2019 or 2020 might be different stories, and longer term it will still experience huge upward swings during times of uncertainty.  It appears we’re currently at the “no crisis” pricing, which would probably be a good time to stock up.”

Second Quarter Scorecard:

Gold is down 0.4% for the year.  Silver is up 2%.  It’s wandering (for now), so it’s in line with predictions.

Please note that when a stock market crisis hits (not if, but when) ALL asset classes will drop in price (except for food and ammo).  That’s generally a great time to buy gold.  If it’s an inflationary spike?  Yeah, you’ll be too late for the party – people will dump dollars to buy commodities like gold.

stupidtwain

Disclaimer:  I haven’t started any positions in anything above the last three days and don’t expect to start any in the next three.  So there, neener, neenter.  Also, I’m not a decent financial advisor, and this set of “predictions” is probably as good as Katy Perry’s kitchen whiteboard for predicting the future and probably worse than flipping a coin.

Lost In Space, or, How There Are No Liberals in Foxholes

“Do you mean he never told you the tale?  To amuse your captain? No?  Never told how the Enterprise picked up the Botany Bay, lost in space?” – Star Trek, Wrath of Khan

lostinspace

Violence can’t cure violence, but it sure can destroy an alien robot.

I mentioned last week about a scene in the Netflix® remake of the 1960’s series Lost in Space™ where the father, John Robinson, (a Marine, I believe) was attempting to use a 3D printer to print out a gun.  The reason he wanted to print out a gun?  They were on an unknown planet with unknown hostile critters around them.

In the next episode, there were space eels (complete with space teeth) that were drinking the spaceship’s space fuel.  Without the space fuel, the space ship becomes better known as a “house.”  And in this case, a house that was in danger of being crushed, perhaps killing the entire family.

A good time for a gun, right?

No.

He had to fight the space eels with a knife, and, though they did survive, he still doesn’t have a space gun.  Because . . . there are no reasons to have guns in space, according to his wife, Maureen Robinson, who has the keys to the 3D printer.

I actually laughed out loud.

Stranded, on an alien world, with dangers, unfathomable dangers surrounding you isn’t a good reason to have a gun?  I’m pretty sure that the number of mothers that would share that sentiment is very near zero, even someone very liberal.  Why?

Reactions to conditions change opinions, and the elements of danger change how we act as a society and as individuals, and the values that we hold dear.  An example:  very few (nearly zero) people knowing that a dangerous person is inside their house, outside the door of their child, would not want to have a gun.  The old saw is that the police are only minutes away when seconds count, and it’s an accurate phrase.

What other values besides personal defense change in response to societal stress or imminent danger?  Quite a few:

Family – in times of danger and stress, society as a whole will tend to push more toward monogamy, restricted sexual mores, and more stable families.  Why?  When resources are constricted, there is a real danger that family dissolution would lead to great disadvantages to the family.  Hence, families bond together more tightly.  Divorces dropped significantly during the roughest parts of the Great Depression – dropping 25% during the first few years.  Divorce rates have headed back up, and it’s nearly certain that the great economy plus the social safety net of the various welfare programs have had on the family.

family

Oh, next one dad is going to read is about environmental regulations associated with nesting migrant waterfowl.  YAY!

Capitalism – Ironically, the great degree of material prosperity brought about by capitalism actually agitates people to want to take the stuff that other people earned.  For whatever reason, this isn’t known as greed.  I had a conversation with a friend, and noted that since socialist countries tend to freeze intellectual progress, wouldn’t it be better if we went farther into the future before we became fully socialist so we could have the innovation that capitalism provides.  He thought that was a good idea.

Communism has been the result of social upheaval, not communism in the past – and you’d think that would be an indicator that communism was inevitable with a large enough crisis.  And it appears it might be, but only in nations built upon totalitarianism in the first place – when Russia fell it was from one absolute government to another.  When China fell, it was from one a military ruler to another military ruler.  But the United States was different – sure, communists made a run at the country, but there wasn’t any real chance they’d win.  Why?  Americans had been free – and the fabric of the nation was built upon the idea that if you let a man have a chance, he can make it.  That’s the American Dream, right?  No part of the American Dream has ever been “give me everything and I’ll give you my soul.”

During tough times, will Americans still turn towards capitalism?  Yes.  At least now.  More on that for a future post.

communism

Yeah, I’m making the memes now.  My kids hate this.  All bad “dad” jokes.

Good and Bad – In a crisis, good and bad exist.  Liberals hate the concept of good and bad – it’s judgmental.  It’s a violation of a basic premise – that all cultures are equal.  And, maybe on some sort of academic realm, they are.  But cultures are vastly different at the most basic level on the outcomes of wealth and individual freedoms they produce, and some are horribly inferior on this basis.  They’re bad.

There.  I said it.

And if we’re fighting them?  They’ll be the bad guy.  And you’ll agree, liberal or conservative (if we’re in a crisis).

grumpy cat culture

He only laughs at pratfalls in movies if he knows that the person broke a bone during filming.

I won’t go through them on this post (but each topic could be its own post), but the following topics are also ones where people will change their opinions based upon the level of crisis in society:

  • Immigration
  • Nationalism
  • Small government
  • Political correctness

As many of my college textbooks said . . . the proof is elementary and left to the reader.  But I might post about them in the future.

We are in for changes in our future, and the very mindset of society will change in response to our condition.  Be ready.  Or, failing being ready, have a knife to kill the space fuel eating space eels.

Purpose, Retirement, and Life. Spoiler: You need a purpose.

“We’re the middle children of history, man.  No purpose or place.  We have no Great War.  No Great Depression.  Our Great War’s a spiritual war.” – Fight Club

Retirement-pencil

I love Demotivators.  You should buy a calendar a year from them.  Or more, if you have more than one year each year.   

Men must have a purpose.  If they don’t have one, they’ll either find one, or die.

During the vast majority of my career I’ve been a supervisor of between one (which is the minimum you can be a supervisor of, unless you have multiple personalities) and 200 people (they worked for the eight or so people working for me, so I was like a great-grand boss).

I’ve seen all sorts of weird things – an employee on day one had his company laptop stolen out of his hotel room in New Jersey and then got punched in the face at his apartment building the next day and showed up to work with two horrible black eyes (this story is true).  I worried he would be an awful employee – bad luck often seems to follow some people around, but he turned out just to be unlucky that week – the rest of his career has been pretty good.

I’ve seen employees quit for no real good reason, I’ve seen them quit for very good reasons.  I’ve (unfortunately) been in the position of forcing an employee out (i.e., letting them know that the hammer is coming down so they’d better find something soon) and I’ve had to fire people.  Firing is the roughest, but it also helps the employee find a place that they can be that will help them – most of the times, they’re just not a fit for the job.  One employee developed diabetes and ulcers while working for me.  The job wasn’t high pressure, but the employee just wasn’t cut out for it.  Or, maybe I’m an amazing jerk.  Nah, it must be he wasn’t cut out for it.

Sometimes the happiest occasion is when an employee retires.

fozzie bear

Not that I want them to retire, especially if they’re good at what they do and fun to be around.  But after 45 or 50 years, it’s nice for them to be able to spend the next few months before they die doing whatever they want to.  I kid!  But how many people retire and then die within a few months?  Far too many, and I think I know why.

I was fortunate enough to be a supervisor to two employees that retired on the same day, Kermit and Fozzie.  Kermit and Fozzie had worked together for decades.  They had vacationed together.  They lunched together.  I think they even shared shoes and toenail clippers.  It was only fitting that they retire on the same day.

Fozzie was ready to retire.  Really ready to retire.  He had plans.  He had a big RV, plans for fishing and grandkids.  He had bought a house about 100 miles away and sold the one near to town.  He’d calculated his retirement down to the penny – and figured out how to maximize every benefit he could think of.  And he was done.

About six minutes after we cut the retirement cake, he was gone.  The last time I heard from him was as he walked out the door at his retirement party, essentially telling us if we ran into any problems and needed his help, he’d be available approximately never.  His last act was to place a huge poster on his office door specifically mocking in a humorous way about a dozen employees that he found fault with.  (Thankfully I wasn’t on the poster.)

Fozzie was done.

In truth, he was probably done two or three years earlier, but he had waited for Kermit.

kermitretire

Kermit had a house that he had bought that was closer to 200 miles away.  But Kermit didn’t have plans.  He rarely saw his grandkids, and his hobby, his passion was really work.

Both Kermit and Fozzie had a great amount of technical knowledge – and I promised either of them that they could get an hourly consulting contract to assist teaching the 24 year old kids that were replacing them.  Fozzie told me in rather distinct medical terminology exactly where I could put that contract.  Again, nothing personal.  Fozzie was done.

Kermit?  Three months later Kermit was in the office at least 20 hours a week.  I rarely tasked him with anything specific – I mainly had him help and teach the younger employees (which I think he loved).  I’m not in that position anymore with that company, but Kermit is still coming in every week.

Why does Kermit keep coming in?

It’s his purpose.  If he wasn’t at work, he wouldn’t have a purpose.  That’s not an indictment of Kermit – he’s a heck of a guy.  He simply understands (or maybe feels) that he has the ability to keep going and to keep adding value in the workplace.  And he’s got nothing in his life outside of work that makes him that happy.

Kermit would do it for free if he wasn’t being paid.  I actually think there are some months he didn’t bill the company – and I recall having to nag him about turning a bill in at all.

I’m certain that if Kermit wasn’t coming in?  He’d die.  It’s who he is.

Men must have a purpose.  If they don’t have one, they’ll either find one, or die.

What’s your purpose?

catpurpose

 

 

What should you do in an economic downturn? Depends . . .

“Out these windows, we will view the collapse of financial history.  One step closer to economic equilibrium.” – Fight Club

Since 1940, the United States has had 12 recessions, as recorded by the Fed.  The graph is below.

fed unemployment

Want to start a small business?  Just buy a big one before a recession, and wait!  Saves a lot of hassle!  The gray bars are recessions.

Why do we have recessions?

There have been several economists who have tried to explain this.  One of the earlier explanations was from Ludwig Von Mises.  Von Mises, being Austrian, was the founder of what is known as the “Austrian” school of economics.  Austrian economists are the mortal enemy of Keynesian economists (named after John Maynard Von Keynes, it being a new rule that every economist must now have “Von” in their middle name).  Often the Austrians and Keynesians will have gang fights over who has better economic theory, but they’re economists, so the gang fights look like slap fights between anemic three-year-old girls.

Von Mises felt that recessions were caused by a debt cycle.  At a time (like today) you can borrow massive amounts of money at very low interest rates.  My current house is mortgaged at 4% or so, but my first house was financed at a rate just over 9%, and that was a bargain at the time.  And my current savings account pays interest in dust and, on a good year, in little balls of dryer lint.

voneconomics

Little known fact:  Ludwig Von Mises (Miller) was Superbowl® 50 MVP!

This condition (like we’re in today) encourages investment, and discourages savings.  An example:

The little town I’m in has one hotel that was built since Bill Clinton was president.  There are a collection of at least two other (nice) hotels around town.  And, there are about three hotels that were constructed when the building code required use of lead pipes, lead paint, and asbestos carpet.  So, there are hotels for moderate budgets (like $90 a night) all the way down to hotels that take payment in squirrel pelts (tanned only – no raw pelts).  No five star hotels, but, really, this town isn’t one you’d come to visit as a tourist.

But somebody decided we needed another hotel.  And they built one – a brand new, brand name hotel in a town that already had enough rooms.  Why?

Interest rates are low, so the hotel company is just looking for places to spend money.  If they can borrow it at 5%, they don’t have to make too much money for the investment to pay off.

In an environment with low interest rates and large amounts of money available, companies will borrow money to do almost anything – projects that are crappy at 10% interest look great at a 5% cost of capital.  So they borrow first to do the “great” projects and, once those are done, companies then borrow to do the so-so projects.

What happens when the interest rate goes up?  Or the business ideas that are presented are so silly (strawberry picker making $15,000 a year buys $720,000 California house – LINK) that when they make the papers they become legendary.  Another way to tell is when a Wells Fargo® bank has a Starbucks© inside it’s lobby – and the Starbucks has a Wells Fargo™ bankette inside.  With a tiny Starbucks©.  You can tell that maybe, just maybe, the economy is nearing peak stupid.  (This happened in Houston – there was a Starbucks™ in the mall in front of the Target©.  The Target® had a Starbucks™ just inside the door.  So did the Wells Fargo© bank. Next to the Target™.)

As we watched the housing market collapse, as well as the financial shenanigans machine industry that supported it, my lawyer friend said to me . . . “Well, when you’re at the beach and the tide goes, out, you see who wasn’t wearing any clothing.”  The length of time of artificially low interest rates and the greater the amount of “silly” investment is like a drunk’s binge – the longer it lasts the bigger the hangover.

Examples of irrational thought:

  • The price of a house never goes down – it’ll go up forever. And this one is in a great location, right next to the high paying jobs at the chemical plant.
  • The price of a stock never goes down – stocks will go up forever. And that new car will never replace horses!  Silly!
  • Comics are totally the best investment anyone could ever make. This issue of Teen Manga 2000 will be worth millions!
  • “It’s different this time.”
  • “Stocks have reached a new permanent high plateau.”
  • “This company, Montgomery Ward Toys ‘r’ Us Sears Tesla will last forever . . . .

And then, something happens.  Oh, sure, it looks like . . . 9/11.  If the economy were healthy and operating on all cylinders, 9/11 wouldn’t have led to a recession.  The reason for the recession isn’t what’s in the papers – the economy was sick from too much bourbon.  It was going to throw up anyway.

Make no mistake – the United States is an economic engine.  2% growth is middling, but a 2% contraction is catastrophe.  Why?

All of the jobs are created at the margin, at that 1% or 2% of growth.  A small contraction ripples through the economy – now people are losing jobs.  A 2% contraction is really a 3% or 4% contraction.  That can set off a chain reaction (like during the Great Depression) – those people aren’t consuming, so the next group of people lose their jobs/businesses.  And so on.

Also, in the past, inflation was a thing that happened.  Now we pretend it doesn’t, even as food goes from a $5 lunch to a $10 lunch, minimum.

Eventually, however, the Central Bank (in the case of the United States) can hold back the interest rates no longer – it has to raise them or risk the currency (dollar) becoming worthless.  Interest rates rise.

Formerly profitable projects and businesses are no longer profitable at the new rate.  They get cancelled, or in some cases abandoned during construction.  Or the entire business fails.  The average business lasts . . . 10 years, regardless of age.  Big ones, small ones, they get eaten or fail.  It’s part of that regrowth that’s actually nice about capitalism.  Wouldn’t it be nice if the DMV had to compete to get you to come in and get license plates or a new driver’s license?

So how should you behave in an economic contraction?

First, the pitfalls:  being right early is EXACTLY the same as being totally wrong.  In 1994 I saw that Marvel® had a great group of characters, and if they could only exploit them, they’d have a franchise that was worth millions.  So, I placed a big bet – $2000 – on Marvel™ Entertainment stock.  Which promptly went bankrupt, making my investment worth a handful of magic beans.  Sigh.  Again, being right early is exactly the same as being wrong.

Second:  Getting out early (which I’ve done a time or two or almost always) has proven to be a killer.  Getting out while the market is still going up has cost me a lot of gains.  Not that I’m complaining – the world has been awesome for me, but I really wish I could afford a private island with a heliport inside and extinct volcano.  I’ll have to buy an island without a volcano.  Again.  Sigh.  Is an extinct volcano too much to ask?

So, what do you do when faced with an economic downturn?  I’ve developed a helpful graphic:

Size of Downturn Best Investment Amount of Panic Beware of: Move to:
1-3% Stay the course – keep investing every month. Bernie Sanders waves his hands and screams for more aid. Falling stocks. A nice property you bought at a bargain.
Less than 5% Whiskey.  AAA Bonds of solid countries, like Switzerland.  Gold. Bernie Sanders takes his hand out of his pockets and puts them in yours. Communist revolution.  Oh, wait, they already got California. Montana or Idaho.
More than 10% Ammunition.  Even more whiskey. Bernie Sanders forms a cannibal paramilitary organization. Better Call Saul being cancelled. Your island with a helipad in an extinct volcano.

The real answer is that response to a downturn depends on:

How much money you have.  If you have plenty, you’ll be fine.

How long the downturn lasts.  If a year or two, you’ll figure it out.  If a decade or more?  Yikes!   (Unless you have lots of money.)

How severe the downturn is.  See above.  The “More than 10%” is not really all that much of a joke.

How much your job is impacted.  This you can figure out now.  If your company could do fine without you, you don’t figure into any strategic initiatives, and you make a lot of money?  I hope you saved some, because you and dozens of people that look just like you will be looking for a job soon enough.

Ma Wilder’s family, the McWilders, took in a batch of neighbor kids during the Great Depression and helped to raise them.  Great Grandpap McWilder was wistfully employed on the railroad and operating a boarding house.  Plus he ran a gambling house (I think) that sold illicit whiskey.  He did what he had to do to get by during the Depression.

Great Grandfather Wilder ran a bank that did fine during the Depression.  Never had to hustle, worked banker’s hours.  Depression?  Not for him.

So, be like Von Mises and Great Grandfather Wilder!  Blitz that recession!

The Coming Civil War Part II, and a (Possible) American Caesar

“Who the hell is Julius Caesar?  You know I don’t follow the N.B.A.” – Anchorman 2

Pompey

This is Pompey, the opponent of Julius Caesar.  Yeah, there’s no second place in history for “nearly became emperor.”  Thankfully, there was first place for “widest head in history” which he won, hands down.  I mean, seriously, how could this guy buy glasses?

Last week’s post was the first prediction about the coming future of the United States.  You can read it here (The Coming Civil War (United States), Cool Maps, and Uncomfortable Truths) and another good post about the life of empires is here (End of Empires, PEZ, and Decadence).  Breakup was the first, and in my mind, still the most likely scenario.  But it isn’t the only one – there is at least one other possibility worth considering.

As I referenced in the post, there was a moment where Julius Caesar stood upon the banks of the river Rubicon and thought about his future.  As he looked at the shallow river he considered the orders from Rome:  at the banks of the Rubicon he was to turn over command of all of his legions.  Julius had four legions under his command in his conquest of Gaul.  But as he stood on the banks of the Rubicon, only the 13th Legion (Legio XIII, Gemina, or “Twins”) was at his back.

Rubiconbanks

Caesar at the banks of the Rubicon.  Some say he thought weighty thoughts about how he could best govern Rome.  I wonder if he was thinking about what was on TV, or if Brutus accepted his Facebook friend request?

To cross without them would, he feared, most certainly end with him being tried for political crimes (mainly the crime of being more popular than the sole remaining counsel, Pompey).  To cross without the army, then, might mean that his long career for the Roman Republic would end in dishonor.  In Gaul alone, his legions had faced over three million men, killed a million of them, and enslaved a million more – not a record that generally leads to disgrace, but a record that still irritates the French 2000 years later.

Legend recounts that as Caesar decided to cross the river and conquer Rome, as his horse’s hooves went into the shallow Rubicon he said, alea iacta esto, or, in a less-metric language, “Let the die be cast.”  And it was a gamble – he was outnumbered.

Caesar’s refusal to be a political pawn set him up to do what no other man on Earth could do – he conquered the most powerful nation on Earth.  He transformed the Roman Republic after a civil war, and created the Roman Empire with him as the leader.  The Roman Republic would never again exist.

At the time of Caesar’s ascension to becoming “dictator for life,” Rome had become a Republic ruled by a small number of families, including the Bushes and Clintons those of Pompey and Cicero.  Historian Adrian Goldsworthy writes in his book Caesar, Life of a Colossus (p. 378), that, “The Republic had become dominated by a faction who ignored the normal rule of law and particularly refused to acknowledge the traditional powers and rights of the tribunate.”

The empire that Caesar helped create removed the instability of the late Republic, and replaced it with a more stable structure that lasted another five hundred years.

vercingetorix

Here is a painting of Vercingetorix, a chieftain who united the Gauls, throwing down his arms at Caesar’s feet.  This was painted in the 1890’s in France, and there are numerous historical inaccuracies in the painting.  Among them:  it’s unlikely that Vercingetorix would have had such a stupid mustache, and Caesar always had his iPhone® at surrenders listening to “We Are the Champions” by Queen on a loop in his earbuds.

The transition from Republic to Empire was completed within 20 years’ time.  Caesar put all of the rules in motion for his last name to become a title – the Roman emperors became Caesars.  The title followed to the German king – Kaiser and the Russian Emperor – Czar.  Think about that – your last name becoming synonymous with being an emperor for 2,000 years . . . “Wilder John the First” has an awesome ring to it, right?

But this is the other possibility for the United States:  whereas breakup into multiple states is likely the longer we go, there is still the possibility of an American Caesar, especially if the crisis is within the next 10 years or so while some shred of commonality can be forced upon us.  Sure, we won’t call him (or, much much much much much much less likely, her) “Caesar.”  We’ll probably call them “President” and pretend that the “for duration of the (endless) emergency” part doesn’t exist.

klingonemperor

If we have a female American Caesar, she will probably look like the picture above.  Don’t worry, she doesn’t bite.  Oh, wait, she does bite.  And that’s not autographed to me – I found this one on the Internet.

And notice that I said forced.  The way we get to an American Caesar is through crisis – real or invented.  A currency one would do just fine, and I’ve pointed out that a currency crisis is inevitable here (Rome, Britain, and Money: Why You Can’t Find Fine China after the Apocalypse) and here (More Budget Doom, The Rolling Stones, an End Date, and an Unlikely Version of Thunderstruck), it would certainly bring the “need” for a strong, popular leader to take the role of power to save us all.  We almost ended up with one in 1932, but thankfully FDR gave out as World War II was nearing completion – if it had been a younger, more physically fit man?  Yeah, it scared the heck out of America.  That’s why we had a two term limit in place for Presidents before Roosevelt’s corpse was cool.

History shows that people give up freedom to someone who makes promises.  Napoleon, Lenin, Mussolini, Hitler, and well, here’s the map from Freedom House.  Most of the world’s population lives under what would be considered a dictator.  Very little freedom.

2017freedom

But never in the United States.  Why not?

  • Historically, the United States has been driven by a core desire for individual freedoms and liberty. Those freedoms and liberties were specifically written into the Constitution, despite several politicians of the day noting that no government would EVER try to take these freedoms away.  The Bill of Rights has been a firewall against government power.
  • Separation of powers is another key. The President can’t make laws, only Congress.  The President can just refuse to sign them.  And the Supreme Court has the ability to call into question the Constitutionality of all of those laws (Jefferson argued the President had those powers as well).  These divided powers were intended to prevent the Federal government from acting unjustly.
  • As a further (and much stronger) barricade against tyranny, the states had significant power: they appointed Senators.  Without the Senate, no new law could be made.  The states further had delegated to them all powers not specifically granted to the Federal government.

But those are weakening.

  • The Supreme Court has made decisions that create new categories of rights of people to have stuff (the old Bill of Rights prevented government from doing things, not granting people rights to stuff). And recent rulings generally allow the government to do pretty much what it wants in most cases.  We’ve gone from a limited Federal government to a Federal government that can choose the size of your toilet tank and define what features you MUST buy if you buy a new car.
  • Separation of powers is eroded. Congress writes the laws, but bureaucrats from government agencies run by the President write the regulations that implement those laws.  Page after page of regulation.  81,000 in 2015.  Stack one atop the other?  A three story building’s worth of paper.  With that many regulations, everyone is guilty.  Everyone has done something wrong.  To go back to a Roman, Tacitus:  “The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.”
  • States in the United States are little more than counties since Senators become popularly elected. Senators are just Representatives (Congressmen) with longer terms, and they don’t represent the states at all.

So, the stage is set – a collapse of the walls that kept a dictator from gaining power.  Now all that’s needed is a set stage.  As I mentioned above, a significant crisis will set that stage.  Maybe it’s actual civil war, as noted in the previous post, which is driven almost entirely by economic difficulties.  People don’t fight in civil wars if they the major problem they have is whether to go to the mountains or on a cruise for vacation.  Civil wars happen when people have nothing left to lose.

And when people have nothing left to lose, Caesar will (possibly) emerge.  You won’t look at him like he’s the bad guy.  Political lines will disappear.  I was watching the Netflix® remake of Lost in Space.  Not bad, but there was one scene that was so unintentionally silly I laughed out loud.

Space eels were drinking the space fuel that the space ship needed to move away from being crushed.  Plus, the space eels looked like they could kill people, too.  The husband went down to the ship’s 3D printer to print out a gun to save the family from the space eels.

Mom had the codes to the printer, and it wouldn’t print out a restricted item (gun) unless she said it was okay.  Then she harangued her retired Marine husband that guns weren’t necessary to fight the space eels.

Okay, you can have staunch anti-gun principles, but the second a space eel is going to eat your kids?  You print a dozen guns.

Your priorities change immensely after three days without food.  You’d be just happy to have a strong leader who will protect you.  A leader who will feed you.  And you won’t worry so much if you can’t criticize him, especially if you have food.

trumplandpng

There was some comment that the maps from the previous post didn’t show the great amount of land that Trump won during the last election.  Here’s a different version, represented by area.  Future battle map for a new Caesar?  Asking for a friend.

You’ll look at him like he’s saving you, which he just might be doing.  He’ll have songs written about him.  And if he does a good enough job?  He’ll be remembered for 1,000 years.  If he does a bad enough job, he’ll be remembered that long, too.

When (if) he rises to power?  You’ll applaud.