Category: Elon Musk Week

Cold AC, Hot Showers, And Bad Economics

“Baseball.  Cold showers.  Margaret Thatcher naked on a cold day.” – Austin Powers, International Man of Mystery

Also, a home DNA testing kit is apparently a poor baby shower gift.

It has been years since The Mrs. and I fought over setting the thermostat.  In summer, we both like it cold, and in winter, we both like it cold.

However, it has been much more of a recent battle on the thermostat with the kids.  Partially this is because they fundamentally didn’t know how the heater or air conditioner worked:  at our house, the unit is either on, or it’s off.

That’s probably the case at your house, too unless you have a fancy system.  The way most air conditioners work is that, when turned on, they’re at their maximum output.  Which is also their minimum output.  My air conditioner is never partly on – it’s either on or it’s off.  Period.

What this means is that if I want the room to be 70°F (3 milli-Coulombs) and you turn it to 62°F, it won’t get colder faster.  Instead, it’ll keep plowing down until it reaches 62°F (1.2 picoparsecs/square meter) if that’s a temperature that it can possibly reach.  Some days it gets hot here in Modern Mayberry, and the AC does just stay on, cooling as best as it can.

If I started an air conditioning repair business for congress, I’d call it AC/DC.

Regardless, when that would happen I would walk into a room on a day where it was 98°F (33mega electron Volts) outside and see my family huddled under blankets while frost began to form on the inside of the house because Pugsley wanted it colder, faster and set the thermostat to “freezer”.

The reason this happens is because of the timing of the feedback – the temperature of the house doesn’t immediately change, so the reaction of someone who doesn’t understand the system and wants immediate gratification is to keep cranking the dial downward.  As a dad, all I can think is, “Man, that isn’t cool.”

After the first brush with a too hot or too cold shower, we quickly absorb the feedback loop that after turning the shower in, we have to wait for the water to change, and if we move the lever too far to the “hot” side because the water is cold at the start, unpleasant things will happen.

That’s a fairly quick loop and sudden cold or hot is a fairly quick teacher.

I think step five is the hardest.

But a much longer loop would be certain parts of our economy.  Sure, if the Fed® changes the interest rate, immediately interest rates change across the country because the Fed™ artificially drives those rates.  So, that’s like your shower, except the Fed© asks us to assume the position so it can use that interest rate to compound us.

Other things, though, by nature have a much longer response time.  Sure, the price of oil cratering can immediately send ten thousand fracking workers to the unemployment line, which is an immediate response.  But soaring oil prices?

Responding to those requires time and investment.  First, suitable land for drilling has to be acquired, along with permits and leases.  After that, a rig has to be found, and a crew has to be found for the rig, and half of the people that used to be on it won’t go back because they’re tired of the 120 hours this week and zero hours a week for months after the price of oil goes to $40 a barrel.

Then, pipe is needed.  And to move it, trucks, truck drivers, pipelines, et cetera.  This takes years to build – Exxon® once noted that their projects are built on multi-decade scales.  That’s a slow change, and often Exxon™ plods along in down years because they know that prices will eventually head back up.

The reason Saudi Arabia has so much money isn’t the crude oil sales, they just don’t let their women spend it.

Politicians, however are impatient, since voters are impatient, and so politicians want results.  Now.  Explaining that having a fracking ban will decrease the amount of oil available which, in turn, will raise prices is beyond the understanding of the average GloboLeftist politician.

The reason is that they have no fundamental understanding of how our economy works and where those segments of the economy with a time delay are located.  They simply think, “We’ll mandate that cars get 250 miles per gallon and are so safe that a fusion bomb ignited next to one will only scratch the paint.”

I mean, it’s worth it if it saves even one life, right?

The fact that these mandates are beyond the bounds of thermodynamics doesn’t matter to them.  They don’t understand what thermodynamics is, and I can barely imagine trying to explain it to a GloboLeftist politician:

John Wilder:  “Okay, we’re going to discuss entropy, which is the idea that systems go from a state of order to a state of disorder.  With me?”

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez:  “Huh?  Why are you in my house at midnight?”

JW:  “Let me try a different approach.  How many pairs of shoes do you have, Ms. Cortez?”

AOC:  “Oh, like 40 or 50?”

JW:  “Good.  Now, what’s the worst thing about having 40 or 50 pairs of shoes?”

AOC:  “I don’t know?  That they smell like my feet?”

JW:  “Well . . . . okay.  But is it hard to keep them organized?”

AOC:  “OH!  Totally!  I mean, l generally just keep them in a pile in the guest bedroom, but that makes them hard to find when I need to go to work.”

JW:  “Right!  The amount of disorder increases!”

AOC:  “Oh, I get it!!!  Beer must be really bad for entropy, because when I was a bartender people would get drunk and disorderly all the time!”

JW:  “And let’s not talk about your shower, because I’m pretty sure that with your housekeeping skills and the length of your hair, the drain probably looks like you shave wookies® in there.  Besides do you know how an air conditioner works?”

AOC:  “In this house, we’re environmentally conscious – no air conditioner.  Instead?  Only Fans®.”

I hear wookie® steaks are often Chewie.

Politicians make decisions on a regular basis that have very few short-term impacts, but that may have economically disastrous long-term impacts.

Longer term decisions include:

  • tax policy which drives investment decisions and can kill industries,
  • Social Security and Medicare, in which cash is taken, spent, and then the next generation is saddled with the repayment obligations,
  • immigration policy, which changes the population and workforce over decades,
  • tariffs, which determine winners and losers, and
  • many other things that you or I could name if we just spent 10 minutes thinking about it.

Each of these has a feedback loop that’s measured in decades.  The demise of tariffs and replacement with income tax, for instance, gradually resulted in the industrial might of the United States being dismantled and shipped overseas where labor was cheaper.

I’d make a joke about offshore drilling, but many of those are crude.

Now, we don’t know how to make those things anymore, all because of long feedback loops.

But since I’ve learned about Global Warming, I’ve decided to keep my air conditioning on all the time.  I know I can’t save the planet all by myself, but I’ll do my best.

The Drive To Kill The Constitution

“Hold your ground, hold your ground! Sons of Gondor, of Rohan, my brothers! I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day. An hour of wolves and shattered shields, when the age of men comes crashing down! But it is not this day! This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!” – Return of the King

I had a sacred, flammable piece of wood once.  It was a match made in Heaven.

All memes “as found”

One of the places that people on the TradRight have made progress over my lifetime in actually increasing freedom is in the area of gun rights.  This is good, and has been aided by Federalist Society™ acting as an institution to bring justices to the Supreme Court whose goals aren’t to modernize the Constitution or to use it to end up being the opposite document that it was intended to be.

Of particular importance to the Constitution is the Bill of Rights.  The Bill of Rights wasn’t quite an afterthought, but a creation of the complaints from the Anti-Federalists that the new government had no prohibitions against what it couldn’t do.

The Federalists said, “Hey, don’t worry, dudes.  The Constitution is fine because there’s a very limited role for the federal government in the document.  Even if it wanted to, the federal government couldn’t take away your right to own guns.  Hell, you guys have private warships with cannons on them – how badass is that?”

The Federalists were worried that with a list of prohibitions against the federal government, then the only thing that would be considered as rights were the ones that they listed, and not the much broader list they took as self-evident.  The Federalists thought that there were just too many places the government shouldn’t be able to go to list them all.  The Anti-Federalists said, “No, man, here are our minimums.  And we’ll add one at the end, the 10th one, that says the states or the people get to keep that long list.”

The Anti-Federalists won the day.  They created a dozen amendments, of which ten were finally adopted as the Bill of Rights.  Obviously, keeping men away from power is harder than keeping Kamala Harris away from the Night Train®, and government grew into a colossus, much larger and with more powers than the framers ever intended.  And like the fat girl at the middle school dance, the 10th Amendment is the most ignored of all of them.

This was obvious even by the time of the Civil War.  I think, rightly, that the U.S. Civil War could be renamed the “War Against the States” because the central role of the States in the governance of the country was essentially dead at the end of the war.  It only required the passage of the 17th Amendment in 1912, removing the election of senators from the state legislatures and giving it to popular vote for a final gutting of the rights of the State.

Now the GloboLeft has assumed the reins, and with the states out of the way, the final push has come against the people.  Here’s the way that Aldous Huxley described it:

“By means of ever more effective methods of mind manipulation, the democracies will change their nature; the quaint old forms:  elections, parliaments, Supreme Courts and all the rest will remain.  The underlying substance will be a new kind of totalitarianism.  All the traditional names, all the hallowed slogans will remain exactly what they were in the good old days.  Democracy and freedom will be the theme of every broadcast and editorial.  Meanwhile the ruling oligarchy and its highly trained elite of soldiers, policemen, thought-manufacturers and mind-manipulators will quietly run the show as they see fit.”

That’s where we are now.  Whereas the Constitution has been powerless to stop the creeping totalitarianism, the Federalist Society judges have been enough, equipped with just two parts of the Bill of Rights have kept totalitarianism from final victory.

If the GloboLeftElite see an obstacle, what do they do?  Get rid of it.  Thus, the idea is now being floated by the GloboLeftElite to ditch the Constitution.  The writer of the latest hit piece against what remains of the Constitution is Jennifer Szalai, who wrote, “The Constitution is Sacred.  Is It Also Dangerous?” in the New York Times®.

Ms. Szalai was born in another country (Canada) educated in Europe, and now, for whatever reason, seems to desire to talk about a country to which she clearly has little allegiance to.  The most laughable passage tries to skew the attempt to interpret the Constitution as it to what it plainly meant and was intended as “ideology” and noting that this prevents judges from “doing nice things”.

Szalai also notes that judges reading the Constitution and doing what it says frustrates what “the majority of people want”.  Apparently Szalai doesn’t know that’s exactly what it was designed to do:  to stop a majority of people, hot with passion, from trampling the rights of the individual.

Yeah, that was the plan.

Look at Australia, banning most weapons and putting ludicrous rules on the ones that remained legal.  Why?  Because they didn’t have the 2nd Amendment stopping a knee-jerk reaction to a mass shooting that seems really like it was a set up.  The only path to get all the guns removed from the hands of the people in the United States is to pass a Constitutional amendment, and even that probably won’t work for decades.

A case in point of bad law versus the Constitution:  after 9/11 the Patriot Act was passed to target “terrorists” even though it gives a government of colossal size powers that would have made King George envious and would have made George Washington reach for an AR-15.

Unless the GloboLeftElite could take over every method that people have to communicate with each other.  Outside of websites here and there and places like Gab®, there were very few places that people on the TradRight could get together to talk to each other.  Places like Gab™ were literally cut off from things like payment processors (Coinbase©, PayPal™ and many, many, many others).

The pesky 1st Amendment keeps the government from (overtly) clamping down on speech.  Unless they ask Mark Zuckerberg to do it for them and he agrees because having people think for themselves about COVID was too dangerous.  The press literally used those words – “thinking for yourself is too dangerous.”  Look at the constant drumbeat to give away our freedom:

It’s the communications they want, first.  As long as they can make us feel isolated and alone, the only person with dangerous opinions.  Then, finally, they can win.

Their goal is the removal of the freedoms we’ve cherished and slowly seen erode either through the cowardice of weak men or the avarice of greedy men or the schemes of bad men.

The only thing that stands in their way?  Us.

Hammer Films, Creepy Creatures, B-Movies And Christopher Lee

“I have just been fired because nobody wants to see vampire killers anymore, or vampires either. Apparently, all they want to see are demented madmen running around in ski-masks, hacking up young virgins.” – Fright Night

If Kamala is selected president, she promised a new post-apocalyptic movie.  She’s calling it Mad Marx.

As I’ve mentioned before, when I was a kid (think four or five) there was a local channel that ran horror movies late at night on Saturday night.  First there was the news at 10PM, then Star Trek at 10:30PM, and then, finally, at 11:30 Creepy Creature Feature started.

There was no host, just a title card with a vampire and perhaps some cobwebs followed by one or two B-movies and whatever ads the local salesguy could sell for midnight on a Saturday night.  I’d imagine the ads were nearly free:  five-year-olds in my generation didn’t have a lot of disposable income.

The movies were (at the time I was growing up) almost all from the 1950s and 1960s, and almost all of them were in black and white.  I think that the television station could get these movies for very low cost, or, perhaps free in movies that failed to follow the proper copyright steps, like Night of the Living Dead.

Who flips Rob Zombie’s pancakes?  Count Spatula.

Last month Bob suggested I revisit the old Hammer Film Productions® films, which are mainly known for their Frankenstein and Dracula movies.  The studio turned out over fifty films, however, before it started cranking out science fiction and horror movies around 1957, and brought Peter Cushing in as an actor and having him join former British commando Christopher Lee in 1958 with Lee playing Dracula.

An aside:  apparently when they were filming Lord of the Rings, director Peter Jackson was describing how he wanted Lee (playing Saruman) to react when Wormtongue stabbed him in the back.  Lee stopped Jackson when he was trying to explain what he wanted.  Lee:  “Have you any idea what kind of noise happens when somebody is stabbed in the back?  Because I do.

To be blunt:  I have never seen a scary Hammer™ film.  Most of them were, at their very best, entertaining.  F-Troop’s Forrest Tucker as a scientist in the 1957 film The Abominable Snowman?  Yeah, that’s not going to be scary.

And if the animal got stuck in the chute, would that make him adoorabull?

Oh, sure, when I was a kid Hammer’s® Quatermass and the Pit (United States title:  Five Million Years to Earth) gave me shivers when I was in still in the footed pajama set, but rewatching it as an adult, I found it an interesting concept (alien overlords still “kind of” alive underneath London), but not scary.

One of the big differences I have seen in either the Hammer™ movies, or any number of movies from the day were built around concepts that seem to have been put away in the current political climate.

What concepts?

Humans are the good guys.  Sure, not all humans were good.  There were sniveling bad guys (mostly effeminate) or traitors (especially mostly secret commies) or scientists who didn’t understand what they were doing.  Or Dr. Fu Manchu – he was definitely a bad guy, from a culture so different that although his goal of world domination was clear, his motives were less so.

Dr. Fu Manchu is still more credible than Dr. Fauci. 

There was an optimism about the future.  Roger Corman’s horrible movie Day the World Ended (1955) scared me six ways from Sunday because there was a mutant that was afraid of rain and I lived in a place where it hardly ever rained.  But the end of the

Just like traitors, the scariest bad guys looked like us but weren’t us.  Dracula, for instance, was, like Cornpop, a bad dude.  And he looked like us.  And, sort of, acted like us.  But you knew, deep down, he wasn’t human.

We (generally) win.  Now, I’ll admit that I like John Carpenter movies where at the end of the movie I’m pretty sure that mankind was wiped out sometime not long after the credits roll:  (The Thing, Prince of Darkness, In the Mouth of Madness).  But most horror movies of the 1950s and 1960s were optimistic that brainpower plus grit would solve almost any problem we face.  Of course, the 1956 film Invasion of the Body Snatchers was in the “we lose” category, but it was pretty amazing, but much more common were films like When Worlds Collide where humanity, led by Elon Musk, manages to save itself through nearly impossible odds.  On a rocket.  With hot chicks.

I guess he’s now offering space for rent.

For whatever reason, I think the end of the optimism was around 1970.  Westerns turned dark, and B-movies where humanity was the bad guy or where humanity out and out lost became much more common, such as Colossus, the Forbin Project, where supercomputers manage to link up and prove that A.I. is scary and may become humanity’s master benevolent and will be the best thing ever to happen to humanity.  Not long after this (1974) Hammer® was essentially done making films and their quirky and optimistic take didn’t seem to sell anymore.

Perhaps not coincidentally, Hammer’s© fall was right after The Exorcist (1973) came out.  It might be the final and most optimistic movie of this period of horror/science fiction.  Although not a B-movie, it did show a world where true Evil was far scarier than anything that Dracula or Frankenstein ever was.

Yeah, the doctor even called the cemetery, “Human Resources”.

The Exorcist, optimistic?  William Peter Blatty certainly thought so, since, although there was Evil, it could be vanquished.

By Good.  And no matter how many times Peter Cushing’s Van Helsing tried, he never ever could get rid of Hammer’s™ Dracula.  Probably because Van Helsing knew that Christopher Lee was pretty good with a knife.

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

“That’s them!  They knocked us out and stole our space suits!” – Dude, Where’s My Car?

How does a crab cross the street?  It uses a sidewalk.

The future isn’t what it used to be.

Going back in time, the future as envisioned by the 50s, 60s, and even the 70s was pretty cool.  There were flying cars, jetpacks, and a world that was cleaner and more convenient filled with abundant energy that would be too cheap to meter – and humanity would soon be headed outward to the planets, at the very least.  I believe that’s because that’s where the hot alien women in bikini space suits are kept.

That didn’t happen, or at least hasn’t happened yet.  Pa Wilder was born after World War I, but still within spitting distance of the first time people flew in the rickety plane that Orville and Wilber tossed together.  By the time he finished his government-funded all-expenses-paid European vacation in 1945, jet engines had already screamed over Europe, ballistic missiles had crossed into space on their way toward delivering urgent packages to London.

Jet airliners and satellites followed, and before Pa Wilder hit fifty, man was walking on the Moon.

And his favorite eel?  That’s a moray.

Amazing progress, by any stretch of the imagination.  But what (at the individual level) has changed since, say, 1981?

Let’s put computers aside (for a moment).  I know that’s like wanting to talk about the life of O.J. Simpson but just skip that one little detail.  Life in 2024 would be utterly comprehensible to Pa Wilder of 1981, especially if he never looked at a cellphone or a tablet or a computer.

The big advances in basic applied engineering seemed to stop around 1970.  Heck, in some ways, they’ve regressed – it’s not really possible to get on an SST and jet to London in a few hours going faster than the speed of sound unless you’re in the .mil club.  We’re also tinkering with going back to the Moon, but seemed to have lost the directions since Buzz Aldrin left them in his other spacesuit.

“I am Buzz Aldrin, I’ve been on the Moon.  Neil before me!”

One of the reasons that progress in a lot of conventional technology has slowed down or stopped is that progress is always easiest at the front end.  The Wright Flyer?  It sucked.  But after flight was proven, people lined up to improve it.  Radio?  It sucked, too, just dots and dashes until AM and then FM were plucked (by very smart people) from the aether, leading also to television in very short order.

Unfortunately, television also led to The View and Keeping Up With the Kardashians, so there’s at least some argument that Philo T. Farnsworth could be held liable for war crimes.

The biggest and most important refinements to a new technology often come soonest.

But that’s not the only reason technological development slows.  Nowadays, experimenting has become too hard because failure is no longer an acceptable outcome.  A prime example of this is Elon Musk’s SpaceX® versus NASA.  Elon makes more progress in an “old” field in a month than NASA does in a year because he watches things blow up and smiles because he knows that his team will have learned something new about why stuff broke.

Space is hard, but it’s a thousand times harder if you have to continually guess what will go wrong rather than test, and that slows progress.  Nuclear power may be an exception here, since we only need so many Godzillas® and Gameras™ to fight off dangerous kaiju, like Michelle Obama or Amy Schumer.

What do you find between Godzilla’s toes?  Slow Japanese people.

As I mentioned, Pa Wilder of 1981 would be quite comfy and unsurprised by the world of 2024 with the exception of information technology and telecommunications, which, aside from financial shenanigans, has received the greatest amount of investment of any single industry since 1981.

What would the biggest changes be for him?

Well, duh, computers, telecommunications, and their influence on the world.

It has transformed businesses in fundamental ways.  Walmart®’s secret sauce wasn’t just cheap Chinese merchandise – nope.  It was also the information tech that allowed them to manage the purchasing and logistics of a business with a supply chain that spanned multiple continents.  The time was ready for that particular innovation:  if it hadn’t been Walmart©, it would have been some other company.

You can get Batman® shampoo at our Walmart©, but not conditioner Gordon.

Pa Wilder would not be very comfortable with the pace of social media.  Also, I think that he would be very, very concerned with the advances in Artificial Intelligence, but enough about the chairman of the Federal Reserve®.

Pa was the president of a very small farm bank as computer terminals began to replace the paper ledgers that they used to track accounts, so he was familiar the changes that he was seeing in banking that in, but taking it from that level to the idea of “all the information anywhere, immediately available” was never something he quite got.  Of course, it probably didn’t help that he used a 28.8kb modem and there were only something like 24 lines(!) from his county to the AT&T© office the next county over.

Yes.  28 lines.  It wasn’t like everybody would be calling all at once, right?  That was, however, the time that we ran for the phone in my house, since calls were rare, and you really wanted to see who it was.  Now?  I have the data equivalent of 10,000 old phone lines coming to my house.

We certainly don’t have jetpacks or flying cars, but we do have an information explosion that is unparalleled in history.  That being said, we’re probably pretty near the limits for conventional computing power based on the limits of physics and energy density, and I’m not sure that quantum computing isn’t just a meme.

Is the next big field genetics?

What do you get when you cross a duck and a pig?  A media exposé about the lack of ethics in genetic engineering.

Advances in things like CRISPR and genomic sequencing have come about because of the advances in information processing, and we are, perhaps, at the cusp of the A.I. world where things could get very, very interesting indeed in just a few years.  Maybe the scientists and A.I. working together with CRISPR can even find a way to turn plant matter into protein.  You know, like a chicken.

Or maybe they’ll finally locate the hot alien women in bikini space suits?

Civil War 2.0 Weather Report: Two Minutes To Midnight

“Two minutes, tops.  But it’s a tough two minutes.” – Reservoir Dogs

Finland has no border problems – no one can cross the Finnish line.

  1. Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
  2. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
  3. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  4. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
  5. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
  6. Open War.

Volume V, Issue 9

All memes except for the clock and graphs are “as found”.

This is a moving situation, and things are changing quickly.  The advice remains.  Avoid crowds.  Get out of cities.  Now.  A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue:  Front Matter – Governing War Structures – Violence and Censorship Update – Biden’s Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Kabuki Border Theater? – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month.  I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues.  Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 810 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.

Governing War Structures

In the aftermath of the Virgina Second Amendment rally a few years ago I had a realization about path to Civil War 2.0:  organization will be very, very fast.  I think I even wrote those words in the Civil War 2.0 Weather Report, but I’m too lazy to look it up.  Regardless, I’m going with a full “I told you so” about this one.

What’s gray, has spikes, and runs around a field?  Barbed wire.

First:  Texas wasn’t ordered by the Supreme Court to do anything.  The Supreme Court’s decision was removing an injunction against the more or less worthless Customs and Border Protection (CBP) being able to remove razor wire that Texas put up, so the ruling doesn’t require Texas to do anything.

Second:  If CBP is as bad at customs as they are at immigration, I’d expect that you could export nuclear bombs to Bulgaria.

Aside from that, the amazing thing was about how quickly a coalition of the Several States backed Texas.  I was doing a podcast with The Mrs. and Mark and even as we were talking, more and more governors were saying that they stood with Texas in real time – state after state.

This was a big deal.

If at first you don’t secede, try, try again.

And it happened very, very quickly.  This is the trigger to number 9 on the Civil War 2.0 countdown list, and it happened in less than 24 hours.  The list is incomplete, since I’m certain more of the Several States would side with Texas if things went sideways, and places like Colorado and Illinois would mostly secede, leaving small islands of blue in seas of red.  Kentucky?  Yeah, they’d be in as well because of their pioneering spirit.  In Kentucky, when your car breaks down?  You build a house next to it.

Now there’s a slogan I can get behind.

The oppositional structure for Civil War 2.0 developed out of thin air on a single evening in January.  There’s more to the story down below, but the lines developed amazingly quickly.  I thought the real issue would be the Second Amendment, but illegal immigration managed to do what no other issue that the TradRight had could do:  make everyone notice.  The unending flood of illegal aliens (an absolute record this month, ever, as shown in the Civil War Index graph below) has been the catalyst.

Note to the FedGov folks, if you enforced the actual Constitution and kicked out the illegals, you could probably stop Texas from straying.

I do expect that (for reasons as noted in our second story) that the tension from this may fade, but the governing structures are in place, which places us firmly at two minutes until midnight.

Yes, we are very close, but Biden backed down because he realizes that on the FAFO graph, he’s pretty close to the FO section.

Does this make him scared enough to pee his pants?  Depends.

The federal government has to push so hard because it feels that its power is becoming more tenuous.  Yes, this tension may fade and after two more months I’ll back down the clock of doom, but this is an amazingly large step.

There have been others.

Missouri would be in trouble except for:

Violence and Censorship Update

I’ll (mostly) let the memes speak for themselves.

As God is my witness, I never knew convicts could fly.

And people say there isn’t a perfect woman.

Looks like Canada is behind enemy lines now.

If I X’d® this, I’d be in jail now.  So why isn’t Soros?  Oh, yeah, he’s a billionaire who hates America.

Think he wants to put up the Statue of Oppression?

What’s a sensitive event?  Whatever Google® says it is.

I wonder if Australia realizes this will just make all the edgy kids get swastika tats?

Canada, are you doing okay?  Looks like you haven’t figured out the whole “laws” thing.

Biden’s Misery Index

Let’s take a look to see how we’ve done this month . . . .

Yup, up again, but only slightly.  Does it matter after the damage has been done?

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time.  They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings.  As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index.  On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Violence is flat.  Winter is in, and riots aren’t as fun in galoshes.

Political Instability:

Up is more unstable, and it is slightly down.

Economic:

Economic numbers did a slight dive.  I wonder if it’s because they caught this guy?

Illegal Aliens:

The most, ever, in the history of the country.  For all time.

Kabuki Border Theater?

PIERRE

The Texas border confrontation has been in the news bigly.  Is it real?  Follow this (LINK) from a Texan (courtesy Aesop) who says that just a mile from the confrontation spot that the border is wide open.  Wide open, but perhaps slightly inconvenient.

Does this matter?

Yes, it matters.

Absolutely.  The border simply does not exist in 2024.  Anyone can walk across at any time, any place, and be rewarded with cash, prizes, airfare to anyplace in the nation, and free room and board.  It’s in New York.  It’s in Boston.  It’s everywhere.

What’s a radical Leftist’s favorite font?  Sans sheriff.

The GloboElite get cheap labor.  The GloboLeftists s get free votes and power.  Oddly, they even share that.

Remember to call a doctor if your election vote counting lasts more than four hours.

But, hey, I hear that they’re close to an illegal immigration vote in Congress!

LINKS

As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky.  Thanks so much, Ricky!!

Bad Guys

https://twitter.com/i/status/1751673864524894408

https://twitter.com/i/status/1744577621319667964

https://twitter.com/i/status/1747837919312687268

https://twitter.com/i/status/1744180313876574264

https://twitter.com/tecas2000/status/1752757658161926364

https://twitter.com/TheWatcherDaily/status/1727684087245132251

https://twitter.com/tecas2000/status/1754194250638508470

https://twitter.com/i/status/1753461857124323462

https://twitter.com/i/status/1752897020560379985

https://twitter.com/i/status/1740256698781360200

https://twitter.com/i/status/1741324539265532308

https://twitter.com/i/status/1741890761845608774

https://twitter.com/i/status/1741106761984057418

https://twitter.com/ShootInUSA/status/1747178759730671934

 

Good Guys

https://news.yahoo.com/shootout-jewelry-store-oaklands-fruitvale-030731425.html

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1748054072215703703

 

One Guy

https://wcyb.com/news/local/kyle-rittenhouse-event-at-etsu-moving-to-larger-venue-because-of-high-demand-for-tickets

https://www.wjhl.com/news/local/controversy-at-etsu-over-kyle-rittenhouse-as-guest-speaker/

https://www.timesnews.net/opinion/columns/bob-arrington-kyle-rittenhouse-etsu-and-free-speech/article_8dc3908e-c06b-11ee-819d-7f6c131835ee.html#google_vignette

https://www.newsweek.com/kyle-rittenhouse-republican-gun-control-ar15-1866056

 

Body Count

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/soldiers-killed-jordan-names/

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/01/10/army-sees-sharp-decline-white-recruits.html

https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/24/us-military-stretched-too-thin-to-deal-with-threats-report-says/

https://www.heritage.org/military

https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-longer-top-level-fighting-070000553.html

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1747835202985185509

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/blood-clots-embalmers-report-mid-2021-covid-vaccines/

https://studyfinds.org/childless-millennials-parents/

https://www.prri.org/research/generation-zs-views-on-generational-change-and-the-challenges-and-opportunities-ahead-a-political-and-cultural-glimpse-into-americas-future/

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1750650452105179630

 

Vote Count 

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1691812817798566281

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fjustthenews.com%2Fpolitics-policy%2Felections%2Fdhs-agency-warned-about-integrity-mail-voting-2020-election-while

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fthefederalist.com%2F2024%2F01%2F16%2Flawsuit-uncovers-how-raffensperger-tried-to-memory-hole-the-election-law-trumps-georgia-call-was-about%2F

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/government-suppressed-censored-concerns-over-mail-in-voting-in-2020-report-5573274?utm_source=epochHG&utm_campaign=CFP&src_src=epochHG&src_cmp=CFP

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ajc.com%2Fpolitics%2Fwitness-shows-how-to-tamper-with-georgia-elections-in-security-trial%2FWUVKCYNV3ZGOVNB6X6TDX2GEFQ%2F

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/13/trump-loyalists-2024-presidential-election

https://www.uncoverdc.com/2024/01/25/afl-lawsuit-cisa-withheld-critical-election-administration-information-to-further-its-own-agenda

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/01/26/exclusive-defeat-maga-meet-the-radical-left-network-that-hijacked-democrats-in-effort-to-stop-trump-at-all-costs/

https://indivisible.org/groups

 

Civil War

https://tomluongo.me/2024/01/25/soft-secession-insurrection-or-the-real-return-of-federalism-in-texas/

https://donaldjeffries.substack.com/p/greg-abbott-and-the-invasion-of-the

https://ijr.com/gen-flynn-constitution-literally-allows-texas-engage-war-southern-border/

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/clay-higgins-calls-on-texas-to-ignore-supreme-court-ruling-because-biden-is-staging-a-civil-war/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12954689/Texas-independence-vote-court-ballot.html

https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Them-vs-Us_CTUP-Rasmussen-Study-FINAL.pdf

https://publichealth.jhu.edu/sites/default/files/2023-12/dec-2023-cgvs-defending-democracy.pdf

https://starkrealities.substack.com/p/americans-are-fighting-for-control

https://news.yahoo.com/endless-civil-war-americas-160-013209995.html

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Famgreatness.com%2F2024%2F01%2F08%2Fa-culture-in-collapse%2F

https://indi.ca/why-civil-war-is-too-good-for-america/

https://off-guardian.org/2024/01/31/discuss-is-world-war-3-really-on-the-horizon/

Electric Vehicles: The Big Con

“You mean, drive in hybrids, but not act like we’re better than everyone else because of it?” – South Park

If you buy an EV from Dodge®, you also get a Dodge Charger™. (Memes mostly as found)

Based on the evidence I’ve seen so far in news stories, I’ve come to a conclusion about electric vehicles (EVs).  It’s this:  If you keep your EV parked in the garage at all times and never, ever drive in the winter, it works perfectly.

And, no, I don’t have one – I don’t need to have one to view the evidence that’s piling up.  I would believe that even the manufacturers would tell you that it’s pretty hard to charge an EV when it’s zero outside, unless you warm up the battery first.

They also have lower winter range for two reasons:  they have to electrically heat up the interior, which directly robs range, and in cold weather the battery cannot discharge as deeply – the rate of chemical reaction that the battery requires slows in cold conditions.

I wonder if all those people waiting to charge their cars are listening to AC/DC?

The range of most electric vehicles is incompatible with a Real American Road Trip.  Modern Mayberry has one big advantage over most places – it’s 100 miles from anywhere.  The downside for that on an electric car is obvious – a round trip to Mt. Pilot is simply not possible during the winter, unless I find and use a charging station.  The one in Mt. Pilot (there is only one) is not exactly in the best part of town, and it’s dozens of miles out of the way on any trip – a 100 mile trip now has another half an hour of driving added, plus the time required for charging.

Or, I could just bring a gasoline powered generator . . .

You can tell it’s not an Apple® car – it has Windows®.

Yes, I suppose that it’s true that an EV could replace most of my car usage.  Most days I drive less than 40 miles.  But in order for the EV to work, I’d have to own a second car just for the (not at all rare) trips where I have to go over 100 miles from home.  The range of an EV is simply incompatible with the size of the United States.

I suppose that would make sense if owning an EV provided cheaper transportation.

It doesn’t.  Insurance is much more expensive for an EV than an internal combustion engine car of the same value because they’re much more expensive to work on, even when they don’t catch fire.  Hertz™ Rent-A-Car© found this out – they’re now ditching the majority of the EVs that they bought.  Too expensive to run, too expensive to fix, too expensive to insure.

What happens when a Tesla® hits someone at a given frequency?  It Hertz®.

A dirty secret that’s causing the value of EVs to drop on the secondhand market is that the batteries will die.  If you use an EV a lot, the batteries will cycle and die.  If you don’t use it, the batteries will age and die.  If I had twenty-year old vehicle (and I do) I know that the hoses will break, I’ll eventually need to replace the clutch pad and brake pads.  Stuff will eventually need to be replaced.

But every time Pugsley turns the key, it cranks over and he drives it to school.  If it depended on twenty-year-old batteries?

Not thinking it would be a pretty sight if he had to depend on batteries old enough to vote.  On a zero degree day.

If a crackhead stole the copper lead, would he be guilty of mis-conduct?

The biggest drawback to EV adoption is battery tech.  It sucks.  But let’s pretend that we could store five times the energy in a typical EV battery pack – move from a 200 mile range to 1000 miles.  That would be awesome!  Let’s forget that’s nearly an order of magnitude increase in capacity for a second.

Now, instead of 200 miles worth of electricity stored in a battery that you’re sitting on, it’s 1000 miles worth of electricity – five times the density.  Did I mention that when an EV battery fails, it fails spectacularly?  Like in a crash?

Yeah, my car has a lot of stored energy in the gas tank, but we’ve figured out how to (mostly) keep it from blowing up all the time after over 100 years of experience, and most car explosions are in movies where the hero tosses a cigar to blow up the villain.  Of course, he does this and doesn’t look back, because it’s way cooler that way.

My dog exploded – he was half Irish setter, and half meth lab.

I’ve come to the conclusion that EVs are nothing more than a niche car for people who live in nice climates that never get really cold and are rich enough to have a car for each day of the week.

The gamechanger, for EVs is, of course, battery technology.  Triple the energy storage and halve the charging time at a lower cost with more safety?  Excellent.  Atomic powered batteries that are crash resistant that only need charging every fifty years?  Winner.

But I won’t hold my breath waiting for that.  There don’t appear to be any breakthroughs on the horizon that will make this work. And if there were, there are other problems.

Where does all that electricity come from?  Right now, the Texas grid is shedding load.  And California, who can’t seem to generate electricity without creating wildfires would need to consume at least 50% more electricity to electrify all their transport.  Since California has gone from NIMBY (not in my backyard) to BANANA (build absolutely nothing anywhere near anything) it’s obvious that electric capacity would have to be built in Arizona or Nevada or in the orbiting Unicorn Fart Farm.

How do you get Canada to support their electric grid?  Say it’s transgender.

No.  California won’t be going electric anytime soon.  Sensible places like Alberta and Switzerland discourage or prohibit EV charging in cold winter months, and they aren’t governed by Grabbin Nuisance.

It’s weird when a society makes detailed maps about how it’s going to destroy itself.  Well, at least people will soon be able to walk like an Egyptian.

The irony is this:  if the Left was really serious about reducing greenhouse gases by using less gasoline, the answer is really simple.  35 to 45 mile per gallon cars were made in the early 1980s, and had sufficient power to be useful on the highway.

What happened?  Additional environmental controls that addressed problems than 90% of the country doesn’t have.  Nitrogen oxides?  Bad in places that have smog.  Out in the rest of the Midwest?  Zero issues.  Yet, every car is designed based on the problems of Los Angeles.  In Fairbanks, they had a pretty simple emissions test, and wouldn’t let you drive a car in winter (when Fairbanks has smog) if it didn’t pass.

That’s too simple.  Let’s make every car suitable for L.A.

Then there are the CAFE standards – the Corporate Average Fuel Economy imposed on the automakers.  But CAFE excludes trucks and SUVs, so now everyone makes trucks and SUVs.  What about the mighty Toyota® Hilux, the car voted most likely to be driven by a Middle Eastern Faction?  Can’t sell it here, because of California and CAFE – small trucks have to meet silly standards.

We could save millions of gallons of gasoline tomorrow if we allowed sensible cars to be sold.

But no.  That would lower the cost of a reasonable car with great fuel economy to about $15,000, and nobody wants that.  I mean, Big Auto and Big Environment are in bed and agree, so who cares about the people?

Who cares?  Toyota, apparently.

I think EVs combined with silly-expensive cars is a meme trap for the mass demobilization of the American people.  And why not?  They can go to 15 minute cities, as the World Economic Forum keeps preaching.  And since almost half the world’s electric cars are being produced in China, is this a plan to offshore what remains of automobile manufacturing in America?  I imagine a rhyme of the phrase utterd by Barack Obama, “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor” which will become “If you like your car, you can keep your car.”

If it was a good deal, and EVs were the solution, we’d see technological and price advances and not have to depend on silly government handouts to make them a reasonable purchase.  EVs will stick around longer than they should, but, just like Joe Biden, they will never be the solution, no matter how the Left tries to force it.

But, hey, I hear that EVs work great in the garage!

Ye Olde Wilder’s Almanack of Things That Won’t In Thine Yeare of Our Lord 2024 Happen

“Since when can weathermen predict the weather, let alone the future?” – Back to the Future

I think Lady Macbeth wanted to walk her dog the other night.  She kept yelling, “Out, damned Spot!”

Notes:  No podcast tomorrow.  Or the next week.  I’m not going to push The Mrs. this week, and next week she has to go get measured for one of those plastic bubbles so she can live in one (just kidding, follow up visit and we probably won’t be home from Modern Mount Pilot by then, she’s getting better every day). 

Second:  if you’ve emailed me and I didn’t respond, please email me again.  I enjoy and respond to every email sent to me (if I’m cc’d or bcc’d, no, but I read most of those).  I found several in a spam filter today, and I apologize for not checking that since roughly 2007.  I’ll check every week now.

Now, on to the show!

Last year I swapped out my idea of predicting the future.  It appears to be harder.  Now, I predict what won’t happen.  It’s more fun, and I can pretty much bat 1.000 by doing that while making a few humorous points along the way.  So, with that, here are my Wilder Predictions for What Won’t Happen in 2024™.

First:  Ukraine won’t “win”.  So far, the war in the Ukraine has been a disaster for everyone involved.  Had Donald Trump been in office, this never would have happened.  Donald is all about the deal, and had he been president at the time, Putin and Zelensky would probably have come together over a deal that would have been mutually beneficial, and trade would have probably been increased between the two, and there would have been hugs all around.

Really.  That’s what would have happened.  Biden could have shut this down with one phone call.  Of course, the Left would have gone nuts, since a large part of their strategy is to pump the wealth out of the Ukraine directly into either their pockets or their campaigns.  Ukraine is a country that makes the money laundering on Better Call Saul look like amateur hour, so I guess peace was never an option.

Still more credible than the official story.

Second, Israel and Palestine won’t be joining each other for dinner.  Ever.  Note:  I don’t have a dog in this hunt.  The following is an analysis, not a wish list.  No matter what I feel, the writing is on the wall.

This is an existential crisis for both sides, and both are already in a diaspora so they can continue this fight wherever Jews and Palestinians (or Leftists) are in the same city.  In the long term, nobody wants the Palestinians, even (and especially) the neighboring Arab states, so Israel wants to export them to Europe and the United States.  I’m betting they all end up in Canada, or what future historians will call, “Gaza with Grizzlies.”

The Romans couldn’t invent algebra because X was always 10.

Long term for Israel, well, Israel is doomed, too.  They’re surrounded by Islamist populations that will soon outnumber them 50 to 1.  I anticipate another diaspora there, too.  Maybe to Ukraine?  Not sure anyone will be living there, but there will be plenty to mine.  Or de-mine.

I think eventually the merged Facebook®/Al-Jazeera© will probably end up running Jerusalem.

Third, and I’m going out on a limb with this one:  The US Debt won’t come down.  Even though Congress and both presidential candidates will jaw about it incessantly, they won’t do anything, and I do mean anything to even slightly slow it down.  Nope.  It’ll increase faster than Taylor Swift can ruin a football franchise.  Side note:  I took my car to the mechanic because it was making a horrible noise.  Turns out it was Taylor Swift on the radio.

Fourth, the 2024 Election won’t be free and fair.  I know, I know, I’m playing with fire on this one.  It’s clear that the Left mobilized every single trick they read on that Buzzfeed® article, Ten Crazy Things You Can Do to Steal An Election And They Won’t Stop You (You Won’t Believe Number Seven!).  They even bragged about it in a Time® magazine article about how they conspired to do everything they could possibly think of to Make America Democratic Again, since it was clear that Joe Biden created as much enthusiasm with the American people as passing a kidney stone.

They stole the election.

I wish our elections were less corrupt, like China or Russia.

The biggest factor was in creating slop in the system.  Early voting, that ensured that dead people would vote.  Yeah, dead people.  Some percentage of people who voted died after their ballots were cast, and not all of them were Friends of Hillary.  So, dead people voted, and their ballots were just as good as yours.

Ballots were harvested, this is clear, we’ve seen people dropping off dozens and hundreds of ballots.  Exactly as designed.  Mail in voting?  Why not?  And early voting resulted in numerous cases (especially in Michigan) where the early vote was counted, even though the actual voter showed up at the poll and claimed they never requested an early ballot.  They were given a provisional ballot.  In a leaked recording of a Michigan training session, the provisional ballots were given out so people wouldn’t throw a fit.  The provisional ballots of people who showed up in person whose votes were stolen were . . . discarded.

Making an election free and fair is easy:

  1. Paper ballots only. California just outlawed paper ballots, so you know this is a good idea.  The idea isn’t that we make the system so that votes are easy to count – the idea is that we make the system so only valid votes get counted.  If you need more people and it’s important, hire them.
  2. Same day voting, in person, only. Exception for the military – they vote where they are.  If overseas, they vote on election day and the votes are counted right there and results transmitted to the precincts by 11:30pm precinct time.  That day.  All votes are counted by midnight.  If not counted by midnight, they are discarded.  If Detroit can’t figure out how to do that?  Pound sand.
  3. All votes, all voting boxes are counted and are on video every second and broadcast.
  4. All vote counting takes place on video in full view.
  5. Every voter sticks their hand in that blue stuff they cover bank robbers in. It’ll wash off.  If you have a Smurf® hand?  You can’t vote again.  Oh, and you need I.D., even though the Left thinks that blacks aren’t smart enough to get one.

As I said, this won’t happen.  Leftists want every vote counted so that they can just manufacture votes as needed.  People on the Right want only valid votes counted.

Thanks to Biden, soon every American will be a billionaire!  Of course, that’s what it costs for a Snickers®…

Fifth, suppression of viewpoints on the Right won’t stop.  One of the key elements of control is the control of the ability to share ideas.  That’s why the Left was the “Free Speech” party right until they felt they could spike the ball and start sending us to the GULAG.  Blog views are down over most of the Right blogs, and that’s due in part to suppression of search engine traffic, which is a primary way that new readers find us – they stumble upon us while searching for a topic.  If I were Vox Day I’d suggest we create a news and commentary search engine for the Right.

If only someone like Ricky would make one…

A bikini covers only 5 to 10 percent of a woman’s body, yet men are so polite they only look at the covered parts.

Sixth, Elon will not hit peak amusement in 2024.  Good heavens, that man cracks me up.  It’s really fun to watch him change positions over time, but not unusual.  Why?  They have to suppress our ideas because the Truth is inherently Right.

Seventh, no alien contact will happen this year, but it will be trotted out again and again – my bet is that in March and July or August or whenever Biden needs a distraction it’ll show back up in the news.  It’s the ultimate shiny object to distract with.  I mean, besides COVID.

Eighth:  The RINO congress won’t suddenly become effective.  This is a repeat for the last 27 years.  Gingrich did a good job.

Ninth:  Illegal immigration won’t be stopped, but may be (slightly) slowed.  The Wealth Pump from the Elite demands it, and the ideology from the Left demands it.

If you filmed a superhero movie in Detroit, you’d have to use CGI to repair buildings.

Tenth:  2024 is not the year we lose.  The spark that is at our core has existed since (at least, and probably before) the dawn of civilization, and started to burn brighter some 2024 years ago.  That won’t change.  Provided we don’t go full Revelation, we’ll exist until we go full Revelation.

This isn’t over.  We’re not done.  Take that to the bank.

Civil War 2.0 Weather Report – 11 Months Until Election 2024

“I gave you the chance of aiding me willingly, but you have elected the way of pain.” – The Fellowship of the Ring

The 2024 election results are in.  I mean, the Democrats already have them written down . . .

  1. Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
  2. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
  3. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  4. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
  5. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
  6. Open War.

Volume V, Issue 7

All memes except for the clock and graphs are “as found”.

This is a moving situation, and things are changing quickly.  The advice remains.  Avoid crowds.  Get out of cities.  Now.  A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue:  Front Matter – Countdown To 2024 – Violence and Censorship Update – Biden’s Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Alien Army – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month.  I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues.  Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 820 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.

Civil War Weather Report Previous Posts

Countdown to 2024

Oh, that shirt is just so very last year!

Elections are busy things.  The one thing that both parties do is that they try to heighten the sense of importance of each election.  I’m certain that, for every presidential election during my conscious lifetime I’ve heard the following statement:

“This is the most important election in history.”  Some are more important than others.  But would much have changed if Bush I would have defeated Clinton?  Probably not much at all.  Would things have been different if Al Gore had been elected in 2000?  No.  Would things have been much different if the other candidate had won in 2004, or 2008, or 2012?

No, not really.  In most of those cases the differences between the candidates were so small that there really wasn’t a difference.  How different would Romney’s first term be than Obama’s second term?  Not a mitten’s worth of difference.

But then we get to 2016.  Trump as a candidate would never have been electable before 2016.  But by 2016, it was enough – the majority of the American Right was done with the system, and candidates like ¡Jeb! were seen as what they really were:  jokes.

In the most shocking part of his presidency:  Trump actually tried to keep his campaign promises, even the ones official Washington didn’t like.  The result?  Absolutely everything possible was done so he could not be re-elected.  The silly thing is that had they left him in office, people would have been tired of Trump by 2024 and be ready (my guess) for a sharp turn Left.

It would have been perfect for them.  But, no.  It is clear and undisputed (and even bragged about) that the Left changed the laws in the country to make ballot harvesting and voter fraud easy.  When that wasn’t enough, they had to hide the counting and count ballots that the laws of several swing states indicated were illegal ballots.

Expect a replay in 2024.

There are more allegations, and more than enough smoke to know that there were fires in places that were crucial to Biden.  This created an outpouring of emotion far greater than any normal election would have – it made people feel that, indeed, this was the last stop.

It might have been.  However, we can see (as we’ve seen around the world in places like Great Britain and Ireland) that the draconian laws that are passed explicitly against the interests of the actual citizens shows that voting harder isn’t changing anything.

So, 2024 is eleven months out.  Is this the most important election of our lives?  Probably not.  Does it have the likelihood of being the most divisive election since 1860?

Yes.

Not even Kennedy can knock him down at this point.

Violence and Censorship Update

Back during the pandemic, ivermectin was ridiculed as “horse paste”.  I’m not suggesting it has anti-cancer properties, but this oncologist is.  Why isn’t that news?

A deranged trans person shot up a bunch of kids, waking people up and, in my opinion, set up the disgust that has led to the brand destruction of Bud Light™.  The manifesto of the killer was secret.  Why?  Was it because it showed a deep hatred for white people?  Regardless, it’s a “safety” concern of a Leftist mayor who wants to track down those that may have leaked it.  Why did they have to leak it, when there will be no trial, and there are no co-conspirators?  Oh, yes, censorship of dangerous information.

Her Accidency, the barely verbal Governor of New York, announces that New York no longer agrees with free speech.  At least against certain groups.

Neil the no longer Young is boycotting X®.  In other news, Neil the no longer Young is still alive.

Musk’s X® platform is the subject of an advertiser boycott, but advertisers are okay with Insta© serving up much more objectionable content.

Related:

In the “I’m leaving and I’m going to yell at you why” and no one cares file, there’s this:

Not in the United States, but, it’s weird with all the hate speech laws in Euroland, that Azad Talukder (a fine Irish name!) is not indicted for one wishing death on people speaking out against being stabbed.

Related, from Ireland, showing why the Second Amendment is important if you like the First Amendment:

I’ve got a lot more, really, but this is enough.  Violence is up (record numbers of murders in many US cities), and censorship is hitting a feeding frenzy.

Biden’s Misery Index

Let’s take a look to see how we’ve done this month . . . .

Yup, up again.  But not as bad as last month, thanks to winter and lower gas prices (one of the factors).

Here’s what building back better looks like:

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time.  They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings.  As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index.  On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Violence is down slightly.  Winter is in, and riots aren’t as fun in galoshes.

Political Instability:

Up is more unstable, and it is up.  I expected more by December, but, hey, it’s shopping season.

Economic:

Economic numbers are swinging back up again this month.  I expected more of a downturn in November, and was wrong, instead seeing it whipsaw back up.  Lower gas prices and giving up in Ukraine are (probably) partial drivers.

Illegal Aliens:

Another one of the biggest numbers, ever, in the history of the country, record for November.  For all time.  Why not tax them like El Salvador?  Oh, wait, those illegals are headed to the United States.

Alien Army

I had this down as a topic several weeks ago, so the recent date on the picture below just shows how fast this one is moving:

The aptly named Dick Durban has said the quiet part out loud:  since the Biden has made the primary source of the volunteer armed forces dry up by, well, hating the white people who have turned out in droves for it throughout history, the numbers have gone down.  How far down?  Far enough that instead of a brave Latina with two lesbian mothers in Air Force HR, they now are showing white guys doing macho things like jumping out of helicopters.

But they really don’t want white guys back.  They want a different group:  illegal aliens.  Why?  Think a kid from Conroe, Texas is going to shoot on a crowd of civilians at a bread line?

Nope.  But if it’s an ex MS-13 guy from Mexico who only knows the United States as a source of revenue, I think the answer is then drastically different.  When the head of the Department of Homeland Security wants to ignore his job since he probably can’t define the word “Homeland” and just give up and let anyone here stay, you know you have a problem.

Ireland has recently shown it has the same problem, but worse with politicians actively saying things that would be hate speech in Ireland unless spoken about the actual Irish.

This is another step towards open warfare on the legacy Americans.  And another step towards Civil War 2.0.

LINKS

As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky.  Thanks so much, Ricky!!

Bad Guys 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1730672536071938087

https://twitter.com/i/status/1730528857172619399

https://twitter.com/i/status/1728511136117543187

https://twitter.com/i/status/1726830295515877729

https://twitter.com/i/status/1724668651838767519

https://twitter.com/i/status/1730536906998313465

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12797119/NC-southeast-raleigh-high-school-stabbing-dead.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12797245/Chicago-robbery-rifle-woman-video-police-suspects.html

 

Good Guys

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1721541510523437338

 

One Guy

https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1722729642262433947

https://nypost.com/2023/11/10/metro/woman-threatened-by-homeless-mugger-wishes-vigilante-didnt-use-gun/

 

Body Count

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-beef-prices-hit-record-high-nations-cattle-herd-expected-shrink-through-2025

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12628299/birth-rate-america-fertility-fallen-disaster.html

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/24/1215152734/after-the-dobbs-decision-birth-rates-are-up-in-states-with-abortion-ban-states

https://fortune.com/2023/11/18/students-missing-school-attendance-chronic-absenteeism-teacher-shortage/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12776889/Oregon-overdoses-skyrocket-decriminalize-drugs-heroin-meth-cocaine.html

https://www.statista.com/chart/19920/us-veterans-from-another-country/

https://nypost.com/2023/11/25/metro/2516-nypd-cops-head-for-exits-so-far-in-2023-pension-data/

https://ammo.com/articles/gun-ownership-by-state

https://twitter.com/Risemelbourne/status/1729337006914990526

https://www.aussie17.com/p/new-zealand-government-data-administrator

https://vigilantnews.com/post/turbo-death-from-turbo-cancers-were-in-trouble-says-dr-ryan-cole

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/surge-young-people-deaths-insurance-industry/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12754341/nuclear-war-attack-silos-deaths.html

 

Vote Count

https://forwardmajority.org/battlegroundvoterproject/

https://uncoverdc.com/2023/10/31/georgia

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1723057416873681020.html

https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1723057416873681020

https://twitter.com/KevinKelton2?t=msfw1gf0DGhmKR7YTiILIw&s=03

https://uncoverdc.com/2023/11/09/elector-challenges-in-georgia-voter-intimidation-or-civic-duty

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/going-expose-everything-mike-lindell-says-georgia-voting-machine-ruling-opened-door-no

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/voting-machines-georgia-lawsuit/2023/11/12/id/1141994/

https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Fpolitics%2F2023%2F11%2F16%2Fnebraska-gov-jim-pillen-warns-vague-deceptive-abortion-ballot-initiative%2F

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/abortion-rights-groups-seek-ballot-measures-9-states-2024-rcna125177

 

Civil War

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/11/15/texas-secession-texit/

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/texit-progress-secession-question-expected-appear-2024-texas-primary-ballot

https://www.davisenterprise.com/news/bob-dunning-secession-fever-hits-el-dorado-county/article_2c1c6894-8fe5-11ee-878b-734d7888a050.html

https://time.com/6222633/second-civil-war-us-how-to-avoid/

https://unherd.com/2023/11/inside-the-american-redoubt/

https://www.realclearpennsylvania.com/articles/2023/11/15/the_parties_have_irreconcilably_different_visions_for_america_992964.html

https://thewire.in/world/us-fascistic-violence-civil-war-election-2024

https://www.thefp.com/p/black-humor-in-venezuela-communist-fat-camp

https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-magic-moment/

Peter Turchin’s End Times: There Be Dragons Here

“The end time has come, not in flame, but in mist!” – The Mist

I once had shoes that had Velcro® closures.  I mean, why knot?

(Complete review in one post)

I recently completed the book End Times by Peter Turchin.  I have recently done a review of How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter (not that Barbara Walter, some other commie bimbo), and by comparison Ms. Walter’s book is a badly drawn crayon sketch of Donald Trump by a mildly developmentally disabled child who was born of the copulation of two stoned Leftists and raised on a diet of Trotsky and lead paint chips.

Her book was bad.  Turchin, who I imagine is also Left-leaning, was (mainly) able to keep his political opinions out of the book, and produce something useful and as even-handed as he could make it, what with having to go to fancy university parties with the Leftist intelligentsia who are globalist and communist at the same time, because, reasons.

Going back in time, Turchin predicted in the early ‘teens (2010, I believe) that the decade beyond 2020 was going to be rough.  This was based on an actual computational model, where he took various social factors, smashed them into a computer, and cranked out a slip of paper that said, “Beyond Here, There Be Dragons.”  To be fair, his model seems to have some predictive capacity, though I have yet to find a place to tinker with it, but I’ll bet Ricky can track it down if anyone can.  A .pdf that has a flavor of the model is here (LINK).

The XXX Files are a completely different subject.

His description of the model starts with one of the things that leads to collapse:  Elite Overproduction.  In this context, you pretty much know who the elite are.  Donald Trump is one, and so are the Clintons, and the Obamas, and thousands of other wealthy, socially connected people who have political power.  Per Turchin, only 9 presidents of the United States weren’t 1%ers, and before 1850, all of the presidents were elite and wealthy types and probably had exceptional hats, since they didn’t have other cool things to buy back then.

Turchin breaks down political power into four types:

  • Coercion – Do it or else. Leftists love this.  Think AntiFa® or .
  • Wealth – Let’s face it, rich dudes rarely do jail time, and where exactly is Epstein’s client list and why can’t you see it?
  • Bureaucracy – You own the organization that provide services or do stuff – think the IRS or the DMV.
  • Ideology – This includes CNN® and Harvard™.

Where do psychics shop?  The Seers® catalog.

In Turchin’s view, there are specialists at each level of political power.  The big problem for people is when these folks are present in too large of a quantity and get bored and have to do something else.  In 2016, we had a billionaire (Trump) running against someone worth in excess of $120 million (Hilldabeast).  In no way was this usual, but later, billionaire Michael Bloomberg jumped into the race.  Why?  Bored, I guess.  Most billionaires let other people do their fighting for them – like George Soros or Emperor Palpatine.  But I repeat myself.

The key problem is that there are more elite people who want power than there are available chairs.  That’s always the case to a certain extent, but with tens of thousands of Harvard© and Stanford™ and Dartmouth® grads fighting for elite positions in every facet of the coercion, wealth, bureaucratic, or ideological elite, well, this starts to drive instability, per Turchin.  Per me, there seem to be a lot of people who have no connection whatsoever with anyone but themselves and their elite cocoon of friends with the same ideas and no-fat decaf pumpkin-spice lattes.

Turchin later goes on to talk about how the British killing off tons of French nobility during battles around 1400 to 1450 actually helped France to have a much more stable political period because there everybody had stuff to do other than try to overthrow the king or kill their brother or eat snails and smoke cigarettes while wearing berets and carrying baguettes of bread everywhere.

I once saw a baguette in a cage.  I guess it was bread in captivity.

Yes, in the coming years at least half of the elite will either die or cease to be elite and have to drive Yugos® or Ford Escorts™ while working at JCPenney’s©.

There just aren’t enough chairs in the inner circle to go around.

So, we’ve got too many elites, which is one of Turchin’s factors that lead to societal breakdown.  What else leads to problems?  Turchin calls the next one, “Popular Immiseration” – bluntly, when life sucks for the common person.  Another term for this is Bidenomics.  Economic power of workers is disappearing, wages are going backwards when it comes to purchasing power, and jobs are more uncertain and awful.

To be fair to Biden, this was the trend even before he was selected, and was really the feeling that ushered in Trump.  Trump was and is a reaction to the crapfest that the economy has turned into, and is more or less predictable.  In 1956 Trump would have been a joke candidate, in 2000 Trump was a joke candidate, but by 2016 Trump was taken seriously because, to a large proportion of Americans, life is slowly becoming more miserable, daily.  The needed someone, anyone, to listen to them and stop the nonsense that the Left (and, to be fair, the Chamber of Commerce Right) is shoving down their throats.  Mittens Romney was just the same as the Left in his goals, he just used a different phrase to get there.

The last thing the American people wanted was ¡Jeb!  To give an example from another period in American history that was in crisis, Abraham Lincoln was another joke candidate that fell into a period where he could be elected.

I guess Mary Todd Lincoln said to Abe that day, “Would it kill you to take me to a play once in a while?”

Turchin discusses Lincoln’s election not in terms of slavery, but in terms of economic misery combined with lots of rich dudes.  Turchin adds in that the failing financial health of a country adds to this, lowering the legitimacy of the state.

These factors, Turchin notes, in every case that they’ve covered, always reach a breaking point within 200 years or so.  This is in line with Strauss and Howe The Fourth Turning and the theories of the unfortunately named Sir John Glubb.

End of Empires, PEZ, and Decadence

It’s here that the Turchin takes a bit of time to discuss the nature of the American Empire, circa 2023.  American power, he notes, isn’t based on religion.  It likewise isn’t based on a militaristic history – although we’ve elected generals as president, the power of the American Empire is and always has been commerce.  We sent trade ships in the 1800s across the world.  Genghis Khan didn’t create his empire with trade, he created it with the sword and the horse and by having sex with half of the women in Asia.  While the English used liberal amounts of gunpowder creating their empire, “I say, old chap, what are those Boer people doing sitting on our gold and diamonds?”, they were a commerce-based empire as well.

Me?  I was upset when I got a pack of sticky playing cards for Christmas – I found them difficult to deal with.

I’d agree with Turchin – American power has been economic and, like the British before us, created an economic empire.  The wealth from that economic empire thus created the ability for us to have really cool tanks and planes and aircraft carriers and nuclear weapons.  No bucks?  No Buck Rodgers.

Since it has been economics that created the empire, it’s economics that fuels it today:  America is built on economics, and the biggest controllers of that are . . . rich people.  As much as I’m in favor of capitalism (which is a lot) I can see that a system where the rich people get to make the rules is gonna suck for everyone else.

Turchin calls this the “Wealth Pump” – it’s the idea that the rules are set up not for the common citizen, but for the really rich dudes.  Whare are some of the components of this Wealth Pump?

  • Keeping a surplus of workers so that wages are lower. Unrestricted illegal (and legal) immigration?  It’s perfect to keep wages down.
  • What happens when we are need other workers than the illegals?  Let’s cut all trade barriers so that a programmer in the United States has to compete with a programmer in Bangladesh.  There won’t be any consequences from that, right?
  • Larger companies that have greater pull – Steve Jobs said, before he died, obviously, that he couldn’t make Apple® again – there were too many barriers in place. Many don’t realize that large number of “consumer” or “environmental” regulations are actually welcomed by large businesses – they’re a barrier to entry and competition.

This is what the Wealth Pump looks like.

That the impact of the Wealth Pump is misery is a given.  While (once upon a time) I was a libertarian, I’ve since moved on from that, as they’ve moved farther in support of this wealth pump.  Freedom doesn’t come with mere economic freedom, and it doesn’t come from only from freedom from government coercion.  Does it, in the end, matter if it is a group of elites in government or a group of elites at Google™ is the one censoring you to preserve the wealth pump?

Why is it so hard to start a relationship with a Social Justice Warrior?  They have such high double standards.

As noted above, per Turchin, the pool of people attempting to be elite has increased – ludicrously.  As I’ve mentioned before, it used to be that only 15% of people tried to go to college.  That’s probably the right number.  Now?  According to Turchin’s figures, over 65% of kids are trying to grasp that gold ring.

Again, the normal distribution matters, and that means at least 15% of people going to college have an IQ of less than 100.  This explains all of those Grievance Studies degrees, and Leftists pretending that education is a substitute for intellect while working behind the makeup counter at the department store.

Every time you smoke a cigarette, it takes seven minutes off your student loans.

Now, the number of doctorate degrees have tripled since 1970 (again, a Turchin number) and there’s no real sign that this is stopping, even though it’s clear that this is producing only frustrated people who have useless degrees.  Even useful degrees in STEM fields are, at this point, being overproduced in the United States compared to the number of available jobs.  Yet, the companies keep wanting the bring in foreigners on H1-B visas to take jobs that could be filled by actual Americans.

But the Americans would want a higher wage, and there would be less competition.  This would lower Google’s® profits.  This is, again, Turchin’s Wealth Pump in action.  Google© wants H1-B workers because they’re virtual slaves that they can bring in that would be happy to live four to a pod because it’s better than the monsoon-drenched mud hut in India that is consistently destroyed by volcanoes or communists or bird flu or whatever they have in India.

During COVID, gatherings of more than 260 million were banned in India.

As I talked about a post back, ideology was one of the pillars of a stable society.

Stability: On A Scale Of Zero To Drunken Uncle, How Bad Is The United States?

Turchin pegs the 1950’s as the time of greatest ideological stability in the United States.  People felt that (again, following Turchin’s list, which is similar to previous content here, so I don’t disagree much, though I add commentary to his list from p. 100):

  • Family was a man and a woman and kids. As I’ve discussed before, this is the atom of civilization, and has been since forever – other arrangements (polyandry, polygamy) tend to be unstable in large societies.  Men want a mate.  However, in 2023, the push is on to have “anything goes” as the basis for society.  Out of wedlock babies?  A scandal.
  • Men were men, women were women and men had men jobs and women had women jobs.   Now we can’t even define what a woman is.
  • Natural bodies are better. Tats were for sailors and .mil folks, and weird piercings were borderline trashy and foreign.
  • Belonging to a religion was normal, divorce and being an atheist meant you weren’t going to be elected unless . . . no, no unless. Atheists were simply not trusted in positions of public power.

But look what progress has brought us!  (Meme as found)

Turchin then talks about some of the things that kept the Wealth Pump in check – labor unions, minimum wages, progressive taxation, welfare, low immigration.  I’d disagree on the impact and general consensus on, say, welfare, but in general.  Many of those, however, coupled with a healthy export-focused economy with targeted tariffs created a situation where the middle class flourished and grew at the expense of the Elite.  The Left and the Right were more or less together on the goal.  It was Ike who warned us about the Wealth Pump, though Eisenhower described it this way:

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”  He was a Republican wanting to make sure that the military remained sane, and that the most invulnerable weapon system wasn’t one where parts were made in every congressional district.

Now?  Turchin notes, “The ideological center today resembles a country road in Texas, almost deserted save for the yellow stripe and dead armadillos.”

I wonder if they deserved to get hit by a car, if they’re karmadillos?

From the book:  “In order for stability to return, elite overproduction somehow needs to be taken care of – historically and typically by eliminating the surplus elites through massacre, imprisonment, emigration, or forced or voluntary downward social mobility.”  Whoa!  That’s radical, and I’m glad that Turchin is saying the quiet part out loud:  something wicked this way comes.  We all feel the tension, that’s why he sold thousands of copies of his book.

We know it’s coming.  And why.

It’s the Wealth Pump.  It’s not new, and it’s been the goal for a long, long time.  Turchin quotes a 1901 edition of The Bankers’ Magazine:

“When business men (sic) were single units, each working out his own success regardless of others in desperate competition, the men who controlled the political organization were supreme . . . .  But as the business of the country has learned the secret of combination, it is gradually subverting the power of the politician and rendering him subservient to its purposes . . . .  Every form of business is capable of similar consolidation, and if other industries imitate the example of that concerned with iron and steel, it is easy to see that eventually the government of a country where the productive forces are all mustered and drilled under the control of a few leaders, must become the mere tool of these forces.”

This is the goal, not a meme.

Again, wow.  I’ve said before I have a strong distrust of big government, and the groups that really benefit from regulations are big businesses since those regulations form a barrier to entry to smaller groups.  Who runs Bartertown?  Big businesses do – who do you think hires the regulators after they “retire” from the government?  If history is a guide, businesses are attempting to run government for their benefit – hence, the Wealth Pump.

Don’t believe me?  You’re soaking in it.  A longer quote from Turchin, (p. 129):

“The political scientist Martin Gilens . . . gathered a large data set – nearly 2000 policy issues between 1981 and 2002.  Each case matched a proposed policy change to a nation opinion survey asking a favor/oppose question about the initiative . . . .

“Statistical analysis . . . showed that the preferences of the poor had no effect on policy changes . . . . What is surprising is that there was no – zilch, nada – effect of the average voter.  The main effect on the direction of change was due to the policy preferences of the affluent.  There was also an additional effect of interest groups, the most influential ones being business-oriented lobbies.  Once you include in the statistical model the preferences of the top 10 percent and the interest groups, the effect of the commoners is statistically indistinguishable from zero.”

Yup.  They’re not listening.  They don’t care that the majority has always wanted to deport and deport promptly the unending stream of illegals invading our country.  That’s not good for business, so the Left has (oddly?) picked this up as a Social Justice Warrior© mantra:  “no human is illegal” meaning that they’re working to make actual workers, especially black workers, poorer.

SJW™?  It’s just another term for the intellectual elite in the pocket of big business.  Who would have thought that the SJW© would be on the same side as the military-industrial complex?

Stonetoss©, that’s who.  (All Stonetoss™ comics are used with permission.)

Why do Social Justice Warriors hate dentists?  They make teeth straight and white.

A guy on a tractor just drove by yelling about the end of everything.  I think it was Farmer Geddon.

I think that Turchin has proven that, at least in some circumstances, he can show when trouble is coming.   Again, I’d like to see his database and understand in greater detail how it works, but if you look at:

  • Every elite scrambling for position,
  • Every mechanism possible being found to extract another dollar from a consooooomer so that the Wealth Pump can be fed, and
  • the current graph of the interest payments that the United States will have to pay sooner rather than later, it’s clear:

There Be Dragons Here.

How the crisis unfolds, however, is dependent upon the structure of society itself, according to Turchin.  “ . . . we cannot understand social breakdown without a deep analysis of the power structures within societies.”  Turchin even notes this about Barbara Walter:  “This is where the analysis by Barbara Walter in How Civil Wars Start often becomes woefully inadequate, and sometimes outright naïve.”  He skipped the part where she eats lead paint chips with her avocado toast, but, hey.

Give Turchin his props:  he’s calling out mass immigration and stupid academics.  I think he might be especially fun to hang with after a few beers.

This is what A.I. thinks Turchin and I having a beer would look like.  Guess I’ll have to dig my mortarboard out.

But back to power structures.  Big Government is scary enough, but when Apple® or Google™ is holding the leash, it becomes even scarier.  I like capitalism, but what we have here is called by Turchin “Plutocracy” but I like the more common (in our circles) name of Kleptocracy.  That’s what it is, really.

Societal power is now, really, in lockstep with the Kleptocracy.  It has created this weird amalgamation of Leftist/Communist/Corporatist power.  At this point, Turchin attempts to analyze the power structures of the United States to guess at what the future might bring, noting that his work is, “nowhere near advanced enough to achieve such a feat of modeling.”

Honesty.

I love it.

I’m going to take an aside here based on comments I’ve had so far in this series of posts.  It isn’t communist or socialist to question the rules put in place by the Kleptocrats to pump more money to them.  We haven’t had true laissez-faire capitalist system in this country since the 1880s, at least.  Huge corporations are not laissez-faire – they’re government creations, and to be against them isn’t to be against capitalism.

I do think that we have the idea because a system has worked in the past that it just needs tweaks.  That is simply not the case – our system has brought us to where we are today.  Simple actions like having end-by dates on corporations, turning senators back to state-appointed positions, abolishing all Federal income tax and getting the primary funds for the central government from tariffs . . . radical ideas.  But we have to stop the wealth pump, and true libertarians should be all over this because domination over liberty from a corporation is no different than domination over liberty by a government.

End of digression.  Back to the book.

Why did the libertarian cross the road?  “Am I being detained?”

The most common outcome, Turchin notes, is that lots of elites (and wannabes) simply realize they can’t be elite anymore.  Obviously, this will be uncomfortable for many, many professors who now have to work 40 hours at Starbucks™ instead of handing out worthless anthropology and ancient Japanese literature degrees.

This doesn’t happen gradually.  It happens when the University closes.  As we’ve discussed before (link below on Seneca’s Cliff), things are built only slowly, but collapse in an instant.  The extreme case, which is now very, very much on the table is that the elite positions (and some of the wannabes) are eliminated as a result of Civil War 2.0.

The Economy – At Seneca’s Cliff?

 

Who will lead that war?  Probably someone on the fringe of the current Elite who is angry.  Why from the Elite?  They have connections and power that allow them to put together a credible alternative power structure fairly quickly.  Examples from our history?

George Washington was as rich and famous as Elon back in the day, and it wasn’t a bunch of poor dudes that ran either the Union or the Confederacy.

Of course, an alternative is to shut down the Wealth Pump.  I mean, it will be shut down one way or another, but if it’s done before things are in a ditch, it might be better, though I’m fairly certain the first wheel went into that ditch back before 1990.  Turchin notes that he thinks if we shut the Wealth Pump down now, well, that turns Elites into radicals in big numbers and will result in an even bloodier war.

Astrophysicists started a radical protest group:  Black Matter Lives.

From his study, the growth of violence and instability isn’t linear – it builds on itself like an epidemic – Turchin calls this the “virus of radicalism”.  Turchin notes that:  “As long as the power of revolutionary groups is less than the power of the state’s coercive apparatus, the overall level of violence can be suppressed to a low level.”

They want to stop the signal.  But there’s one lesson that even the Soviets learned:  you can’t stop the signal.

Why do the Elite so desperately want your guns?  It gives the average American citizen a real veto over intolerable actions by the government.  This is why the Left and Levis™ jeans want to take your modern sporting rifle:  it makes you a more compliant consoooomer.  And if they get the 2nd Amendment, the 1st won’t be far behind, because ideas like these are dangerous.

This explains all the effort in censoring places like this one.  The ideas here are dangerous, and oh, so sexy.

Turchin’s “everything as-is” scenario shows “an outbreak of serious violence during the 2020s and, if nothing is done to shut down the (Wealth P)ump, a repeat every fifty to sixty years.”  Civil wars are what turn radicals into moderates – von Clausewitz wrote about this centuries ago.  Wars are won when the will of the people to fight is erased.  Places like this one keep spirits high, and attack those whose goal is the destruction of our freedom and way of life.

I honestly hope Joe Biden gets better.  And recovers from his dementia, too.

Who else have they attacked?

Turchin, writing before Tucker Carlson was fired, said, “Carlson is interesting because he is the most outspoken antiestablishment critic operating within the corporate media.  Whereas media such as CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times, and The Washington Post are losing credibility, among the general population . . . Carlson is growing ever more popular.”

Now that, my friends, explains it all, and Turchin’s comments show the real reason Carlson was silenced, and Turchin notes (as I have opined in some places) that Tucker is the real nucleus of the Right.

Trump’s real sins had nothing to do with January 6, it had to do with him not starting wars and actually trying to stop immigration, which the Wealth Pump requires.

What does Turchin say that history tells us (p. 223-4)?

  • In 2/3 of cases, most of the Elite stopped being elite.
  • In 1/6 of cases, the Elite was “targeted for extermination.”
  • “The probability of ruler assassination was 40%.”
  • 75% of cases “ended in revolutions or civil wars or both.”
  • In 1/5 of cases, “the civil war dragged on for a century or longer.”
  • 60% of cases led to “the death of the state.”

Grim.  Really, really grim.

We are at the brink of a civil war.  I’ve been saying that for years now.  One branch of my family moved to the United States from Germany in 1890 because they saw a massive European war coming.  They left 25 years too soon.

Seeing what’s coming isn’t hard.  I can tell you the future in some instances.  If I walk out in front of a speeding bus, I’m going to die.  It’s not clairvoyance, it’s happening to us, right here and now.  Just as my family saw the European war that would be known as World War I coming, I am certain that we are on the steps to Civil War 2.0.

It took a lot to get this picture out of the A.I. – I can get the A.I. to draw everyone from Seinfeld, but it draws the line at Morgan Freeman.

I also cannot stress enough that Civil War 2.0 isn’t my wish, this is the data and there is, at this point, nothing anyone can do to stop it.  I believe the road ahead will be more terrible in some locations than many can even imagine.

Here be dragons.

I do still believe that on the other side, the torch of Liberty will still be burning brightly in a new world where what is True, Beautiful, and Good will be recognized as such.  Why?  Because in the end, Liberty wins, despite all of those who would try to steal it away – it burns in the hearts of all who I would call men and is loved deeply by all of those who I would call women.

Which does not include Barbara F. Walter and her fat, lead paint chip eating face.

It’s a rare book where I put it down, look at the conclusions, and say, “Damn, I wish I had written that book.”

Turchin brings it home.

If you like reading non-fiction and are a regular at Wilder Wealthy and Wise, I recommend you read this one, even though Turchin sucks at adding memes to his work.

The Only Thing You Need To Read Today: Wilder’s End Times Book Review: The Face Of The Crisis And The Aftermath

“If that’s the end of time, I got a front row seat with a big tub of buttered popcorn and a greasy half-live chicken leg.” – Anchorman 2:  The Legend Continues

A guy on a tractor just drove by yelling about the end of everything.  I think it was Farmer Geddon.

I think that Turchin has proven that, at least in some circumstances, he can show when trouble is coming.   Again, I’d like to see his database and understand in greater detail how it works, but if you look at

  • Every elite scrambling for position,
  • Every mechanism possible being found to extract another dollar from a consooooomer so that the Wealth Pump can be fed, and
  • the current graph of the interest payments that the United States will have to pay sooner rather than later, it’s clear:

There Be Dragons Here.

How the crisis unfolds, however, is dependent upon the structure of society itself, according to Turchin.  “ . . . we cannot understand social breakdown without a deep analysis of the power structures within societies.”  Turchin even notes this about Barbara Walter:  “This is where the analysis by Barbara Walter in How Civil Wars Start often becomes woefully inadequate, and sometimes outright naïve.”  He skipped the part where she eats lead paint chips with her avocado toast, but, hey.

Give Turchin his props:  he’s calling out mass immigration and stupid academics.  I think he might be especially fun to hang with after a few beers.

This is what A.I. thinks Turchin and I having a beer would look like.  Guess I’ll have to dig my mortarboard out.

But back to power structures.  Big Government is scary enough, but when Apple® or Google™ is holding the leash, it becomes even scarier.  I like capitalism, but what we have here is called by Turchin “Plutocracy” but I like the more common (in our circles) name of Kleptocracy.  That’s what it is, really.

Societal power is now, really, in lockstep with the Kleptocracy.  It has created this weird amalgamation of Leftist/Communist/Corporatist power.  At this point, Turchin attempts to analyze the power structures of the United States to guess at what the future might bring, noting that his work is, “nowhere near advanced enough to achieve such a feat of modeling.”

Honesty.

I love it.

I’m going to take an aside here based on comments I’ve had so far in this series of posts.  It isn’t communist or socialist to question the rules put in place by the Kleptocrats to pump more money to them.  We haven’t had true laissez-faire capitalist system in this country since the 1880s, at least.  Huge corporations are not laissez-faire – they’re government creations, and to be against them isn’t to be against capitalism.

I do think that we have the idea because a system has worked in the past that it just needs tweaks.  That is simply not the case – our system has brought us to where we are today.  Simple actions like having end-by dates on corporations, turning senators back to state-appointed positions, abolishing all Federal income tax and getting the primary funds for the central government from tariffs . . . radical ideas.  But we have to stop the wealth pump, and true libertarians should be all over this because domination over liberty from a corporation is no different than domination over liberty by a government.

End of digression.  Back to the book.

Why did the libertarian cross the road?  “Am I being detained?”

The most common outcome, Turchin notes, is that lots of elites (and wannabes) simply realize they can’t be elite anymore.  Obviously, this will be uncomfortable for many, many professors who now have to work 40 hours at Starbucks™ instead of handing out worthless anthropology and ancient Japanese literature degrees.

This doesn’t happen gradually.  It happens when the University closes.  As we’ve discussed before (link below on Seneca’s Cliff), things are built only slowly, but collapse in an instant.  The extreme case, which is now very, very much on the table is that the elite positions (and some of the wannabes) are eliminated as a result of Civil War 2.0.

The Economy – At Seneca’s Cliff?

Who will lead that war?  Probably someone on the fringe of the current Elite who is angry.  Why from the Elite?  They have connections and power that allow them to put together a credible alternative power structure fairly quickly.  Examples from our history?

George Washington was as rich and famous as Elon back in the day, and it wasn’t a bunch of poor dudes that ran either the Union or the Confederacy.

Of course, an alternative is to shut down the Wealth Pump.  I mean, it will be shut down one way or another, but if it’s done before things are in a ditch, it might be better, though I’m fairly certain the first wheel went into that ditch back before 1990.  Turchin notes that he thinks if we shut the Wealth Pump down now, well, that turns Elites into radicals in big numbers and will result in an even bloodier war.

Astrophysicists started a radical protest group:  Black Matter Lives.

From his study, the growth of violence and instability isn’t linear – it builds on itself like an epidemic – Turchin calls this the “virus of radicalism”.  Turchin notes that:  “As long as the power of revolutionary groups is less than the power of the state’s coercive apparatus, the overall level of violence can be suppressed to a low level.”

They want to stop the signal.  But there’s one lesson that even the Soviets learned:  you can’t stop the signal.

Why do the Elite so desperately want your guns?  It gives the average American citizen a real veto over intolerable actions by the government.  This is why the Left and Levis™ jeans want to take your modern sporting rifle:  it makes you a more compliant consoooomer.  And if they get the 2nd Amendment, the 1st won’t be far behind, because ideas like these are dangerous.

This explains all the effort in censoring places like this one.  The ideas here are dangerous, and oh, so sexy.

Turchin’s “everything as-is” scenario shows “an outbreak of serious violence during the 2020s and, if nothing is done to shut down the (Wealth P)ump, a repeat every fifty to sixty years.”  Civil wars are what turn radicals into moderates – von Clausewitz wrote about this centuries ago.  Wars are won when the will of the people to fight is erased.  Places like this one keep spirits high, and attack those whose goal is the destruction of our freedom and way of life.

I honestly hope Joe Biden gets better.  And recovers from his dementia, too.

Who else have they attacked?

Turchin, writing before Tucker Carlson was fired, said, “Carlson is interesting because he is the most outspoken antiestablishment critic operating within the corporate media.  Whereas media such as CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times, and The Washington Post are losing credibility, among the general population . . . Carlson is growing ever more popular.”

Now that, my friends, explains it all, and Turchin’s comments show the real reason Carlson was silenced, and Turchin notes (as I have opined in some places) that Tucker is the real nucleus of the Right.

Trump’s real sins had nothing to do with January 6, it had to do with him not starting wars and actually trying to stop immigration, which the Wealth Pump requires.

What does Turchin say that history tells us (p. 223-4)?

  • In 2/3 of cases, most of the Elite stopped being elite.
  • In 1/6 of cases, the Elite was “targeted for extermination.”
  • “The probability of ruler assassination was 40%.”
  • 75% of cases “ended in revolutions or civil wars or both.”
  • In 1/5 of cases, “the civil war dragged on for a century or longer.”
  • 60% of cases led to “the death of the state.”

Grim.  Really, really grim.

We are at the brink of a civil war.  I’ve been saying that for years now.  One branch of my family moved to the United States from Germany in 1890 because they saw a massive European war coming.  They left 25 years too soon.

Seeing what’s coming isn’t hard.  I can tell you the future in some instances.  If I walk out in front of a speeding bus, I’m going to die.  It’s not clairvoyance, it’s happening to us, right here and now.  Just as my family saw the European war that would known as World War I coming, I am certain that we are on the steps to Civil War 2.0.

It took a lot to get this picture out of the A.I. – I can get the A.I. to draw everyone from Seinfeld, but it draws the line at Morgan Freeman.

I also cannot stress enough that Civil War 2.0 isn’t my wish, this is the data and there is, at this point, nothing anyone can do to stop it.  I believe the road ahead will be more terrible in some locations than many can even imagine.  I do still believe that on the other side, the torch of Liberty will still be burning brightly in a new world where what is True, Beautiful, and Good will be recognized as such.  Why?  Because in the end, Liberty wins, despite all of those who would try to steal it away – it burns in the hearts of all who I would call men, and is loved deeply by all of those who I would call women.

Which does not include Barbara F. Walter and her fat, lead paint chip eating face.

It’s a rare book where I put it down, look at the conclusions, and say, “Damn, I wish I had written that book.”  Turchin brings it home.  If you like reading non-fiction and are a regular at Wilder Wealthy and Wise, I recommend you read this one, though Turchin sucks at adding memes to his work.