Silly Predictions – Page 21 – Wilder, Wealthy, and Wise

Pulp Fiction, Epsilon Theory, and The News Isn’t The News. Really.

“Zed? Zed’s dead, Baby.” – Pulp Fiction

So if the Internet is a motorcycle and Bruce Willis is original thought, at some point . . . we should just go drinking and stop thinking.

How much of your news . . . isn’t news? Turns out, a lot.

It starts out, for me, with a video on fiction writing:

The international-selling author Rob Kroese (buy his stuff, it’s awesome LINK) published a link to a YouTube (more about them later) video on Twitter®. This video is below; it’s exceptional advice for writers of fiction. In it, Trey and Matt point out that there simply must be causation in a story to make it pay off for the reader. A story isn’t just a sequence of events that happen and are randomly connected via the conjunction “and” – no. A story is a sequence where one event leads to the next, and there is causality. It’s not “and” it’s “because.” That’s the reason that Pulp Fiction is so awesome. Tarantino sets up a sequence of well thought-out stories and makes you, the movie goer, unjumble them to discern the real causality that underlies the plot. The genius is making you find the “because” and “therefore” of the film. The best part is that it only becomes clear at the end of the film how it all works together. Sure, it’s a one-trick pony thing to do, but it was masterfully done in Pulp Fiction, enough so Tarantino can still coast off that genius for decades.

Trey and Matt, please go back and watch early episodes of South Park©. It’s not too late to Make South Park™ Funny Again: #MSPFA. Check out the guys from the Venture Brothers® – they manage to do it. Especially all the Rusty Venture stuff.

Pulp Fiction is a movie where we were looking for causality to bring it all together for us. However, Rusty Guinn, writer extraordinaire from the excellent site Epsilon Theory (LINK) made an outstanding connection. He has for some time been talking about Fiat News. Here it is in his own words (emphasis in the original):

The Washington Post is in the fiat news business. They are trying to influence our political process to their institutional benefit, just like the Wall Street Journal and every other mainstream media institution is in the fiat news business. The Washington Post is never a foe to a status quo American regime, regardless of which party is in the White House, as the regime bestows on them the authority to issue fiat news. Still, if you trust the Washington Post, you are no less a fool.

The fiat news business is booming. As a result, the counterfeit news business is booming, too. And if the history of fiat money and counterfeit money is any guide, we ain’t seen nothing yet. (LINK)

So the short version of this is: a good story is poor news. What makes Pulp Fiction great, what makes spy stories exciting is that narrative. I don’t need that narrative with my news. I don’t want to hear the newscaster come on the radio and say, “It’s 38°F outside (291°C) because global warming is FAKE NEWS.” I also don’t want the newscaster to say, “It’s a scorching 102°F (-391°C) because TRUMP WANTS YOU TO DIE OF GLOBAL WARMING!” Yet I hear similar stories about the weather all of the time. “Hurricanes increasing because of global warming,” when I heard nothing of the sort about hurricanes declining because of not global warming in the relatively hurricane-free recent years. Even weather events are co-opted for Fiat News. Every story that can be remotely part of the narrative is brought in.

And before you complain about my temperature conversions, the metric system is for countries that haven’t put people on the Moon. Nanner-nanner.

Oh, that’s where Fiat News comes from.

It’s especially stark where I live. On my morning drive, I have the option of a radio station playing music from when Nixon was president, a station with programming from the American Family Network™ (Radio Free Jesus), and NPR™ (National Progressive Radio). I opt for silence most days. The bias in the reporting is like chewing on aluminum foil covered fingernails that just screeched on a chalkboard. At least American Family Network© is open and upfront about their bias: they are right leaning, and hate abortion, communism, Nancy Pelosi and any book written since Eisenhower was president. There is zero pretense of a bias-free story.

NPR® is worse. Whereas the American Family Network™ is open and honest about their bias, NPR© pretends that it is actual journalism. A case in point: on an NPR© segment during the program All Things (Leftists Agree With) Considered from a while back, there were two stories that ran in sequence. The first one was a blatant attempt to drum up sympathy for people who had broken the law and were continuing to break the law to be in this country. The second story was about how horrible a certain group was because there needed to be a law to stop their behavior (it involved guns, I think, and no one was hurt). NPR™ was consistent in its narrative – an adherence to liberal principles, even in what were framed as news stories. What was a crime, shouldn’t have been. What isn’t a crime, should be. In news segments. NPR© won’t say it, but they hate Trump, also Trump, Republicans that aren’t the Most Recent Republican To Do Something Trump Didn’t Like, and also Trump.

Bonnie thinks NPR® is news. Don’t be like Bonnie.

And NPR© will interview right-wing politicians, and will ask them blazingly tough questions about their policies and positions and any inconsistency is ruthlessly followed up. As it should be in an honest news organization. But a left-wing politician? The questions are all sympathetic, and the occasional vague answer to the equally occasional probing question is accepted without follow up.

NPR: “But Senator, didn’t your bill allow a million deaths a year due to the unforeseen consequences of unlicensed PEZ® operations?”

Liberal Senator: “Well, no, people die all the time. PEZ™ deaths are a thing that happens. But smokers, oh, my, and look at that shiny object!”

NPR: “Very shiny, Senator. Tell us, how is your cat doing?”

And ever notice that anything Trump says is “unfounded” whereas anything that a liberal says is, well, not burdened by an adjective? It’s like when The Mrs. indicates that I smoked a cigar in the basement. I reply “That’s an unfounded assertion!” while I make sure my cigar butt is safely thrown away.

Yeah.

And I see this in print, too. Especially now. The hallmarks of this Fiat News are obvious now that they’re pointed out. Like the Gimp, you can’t unsee them.

But you can count them. And Rusty Guinn did.

Rusty (who I believe is no relation to the Venture family) started with a variety of news sites. As a control, he selected several sites that aren’t news sites to use as a comparison. Vox.com™, for instance, has a mission to explain the news. It’s partisan. And that’s okay. It’s not a news site. Neither is the National Review®. Or the New Yorker©. The biggest use of the “Fiat News” words (the list of words like but, because, therefore, is at Epsilon) was from Vox. So Rusty set the Vox as a unit of measure. One day, I hope, the Wilder will be a unit of measure. A fundamental intrinsic value of the universe – it’s the measure of smugness that is so great that the ego cannot escape. What kind of hole would that be called? Hmmm. Oh. Please don’t say that in the comments.

But back to Rusty. His amazing graph speaks for itself:

Why? (And I can ask that because this isn’t a news site, and never has been, unless you’re as addled as an abacus adding algebra alumna from Alabama.)

Bias sells. The Washington Post® and New York Times™ are published to serve highly liberal people in highly liberal environments – so liberal that every morning they have a privilege review and spank the person with the most privilege, unless that person likes spanking. And then they don’t spank them. The Post® and Times™ are abetted by a journalistic corps that is 95% or more left-wing and comprised of the children of liberals that weren’t smart enough to make it into law school. The readers and journalists want to hate Trump. They want to write and read how awful he is doing. They want to hope that he’ll be impeached and then sent off to that hell that they feel he so richly deserves next week. This week would be better, but they’d be willing to wait until next week.

Fox News® and Breitbart™ rely on the same principle, but to a different audience, namely the right-wing. They want to hope that Hillary will be indicted next week and sent off to that hell that they feel she so richly deserves. But they have jobs, so they can wait a month or so for the show, as long as it’s on YouTube®.

And all of it pulls in viewers on the Internet and television, and causes newspapers to be purchased. Eyes and money flow to the business. In short?

It sells.

It sells because people like to see that others mirror their bias. They like feeling like part of that group (liberals more than conservatives, but that’s an r/K thing (LINK)). And the more biased? The better. They want that emotion. They want to feel that they are just, and someone will right the wrongs. They want . . . to feel hate for the other side. My journalism teacher from high school would punch me straight in the face if I were to write news stories with such bias. And she likes me, even though she’s a liberal and knows that I have all of the sympathy of Genghis Khan and Attila the Hun all rolled up into one.

I watch YouTube® videos while I work out climbing stairs on an unending staircase that Robert Plant assured me would lead to Heaven. I’ll watch videos that pertain to my political interests some days when those stupid cats have stopped doing cute things because it’s a holiday.

But I noticed a trend. If I was watching a right-wing video, pretty soon I was seeing that the next video up was further right-wing. Further biased. If I watched that, the list would pretty soon be in amazingly right-wing territory. On the other side of the aisle, I imagine that someone who was watching a video on how free health care was good would, after a few iterations, be looking at YouTube© videos that supported Antifa™ as the neatest thing since Venezuelan Stalinism® and looking to create camps to re-educate corn farmers from Iowa into progressive Marxism® and collective farming.

Huh?

Yeah, YouTube® knows that emotions drive viewing. And emotions are driven by extremes. So its algorithm, purposefully or not, drives viewers to extreme viewpoints to get more video views. The Pugh study on political views supports this (LINK).

The media is purposefully encouraging the split in our country. Mainly for revenue and to sell papers, but also partially because they believe it’s the right thing to do. Thankfully this always ends well, and as a commenter, GSS, on a previous post has noted, this division isn’t new – it’s occurred many times and may be the norm during the life of our Republic.

It’s not like a newspaper could take us to war, is it?

And if you liked today’s selection here are some more posts along the same theme.

Enjoy, even with dinner!

The Future of Humanity: Galactic Empire, PEZ-Driven Starships, and Girls Drinking Beer

“Far back in the mists of ancient time, in the great and glorious days of the former Galactic Empire, life was wild, rich, and, on the whole, tax-free.” – Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy

This is what happens when you don’t pay your PEZ® bill – they send in the enforcers.

I had a comment from James Dakin in the comment section the other day that really made me think, which is as painful as it sounds. James runs the excellent blog Bison Prepper (LINK) and is also a prolific author – he’s got bunches of books on Amazon. His comment was especially nice, because it made me realize that from the outside this blog might look a little, well, schizophrenic. In one post I’m talking about a future American Civil War, and in another I’m talking about A.I. taking the place over. What I realized after the comment and stepping back is that in many of these posts what I really do is look at alternative futures. I try to do it in a dispassionate way. I’ll not live to see lots of the things I’m predicting, and, like your mom’s butt, hope not to see some of them. No rational human being wants to see another Civil War, but yet the possibility of that next Civil War exists, and is growing every day. Also like your mom’s butt.

So, this comment made me step back and realize what I’d been building over time with many of my posts – a range of predictions or projections of alternate futures, which fits in well with the purpose of the blog – these are big picture thoughts – really big picture – it’s harder to be bigger picture than “what is the ultimate future of humanity.” I then outlined what I’ve written so far, and realized I had gaps about futures I hadn’t talked about. Those missing alternate futures will be the subject of a few Friday posts from time to time. I’ll end it up with a capstone piece where I dust off my crystal ball and determine with amazing exactitude the likelihood of any of these futures taking place. I won’t be doing these every week – I’ve got too many other topics I really want to get to, but I’ll finish eventually next year. Thanks for the comment that made me realize this, James!

None of these futures is set, but some are more likely than others. For those playing the home version of our game, you can make your own scorecard out of moist Post-It™ notes, coffee creamer cartons from the break room and green Sharpies®. Oh, and you’ll know when to use the thumbtacks.

Today’s future is . . . Galactic Empire.

Galactic Empire is the future we’ve all been told to expect, or at least were told to expect when the Soviets were making East German women as feminine as Bruce Jenner.

See, the East German women’s gymnastics team looked no different than the US team.

Galactic Empire encompassed strong men leading gleaming starships to rescue scantily clad women from danger in sixty minutes, at least weekly, and daily in re-runs. But the idea was older than that. Going back to the pulp magazines of the 1920’s to the 1960’s, Galactic Empire wasn’t just a plywood set – it was manifest destiny. Humans were designed to go out into that, ahem, “Final Frontier” and make everything safe for democracy, even if we had to defeat the Space Nazis®. Yes, there were always Space Nazis® – I think Hollywood was never satisfied defeating Germany just the one time. The end result of all of this striving and endless Nazi-vanquishing is that humanity ends up with planetary homes on dozens to thousands of worlds.

When Space Nazis® take you prisoner, they turn up the heat and make sure you’re shirtless and as sweaty as your mom at a paternity test.

Why would we have a Galactic Empire?

Mankind has, for all of the history that we can find, been in an expansion mode. Bands grew into tribes which grew into nations which grew into kingdoms which grew into empires. It’s hardwired into us. And part of why it might be hardwired into us might be the desire to spread our genetics as far and wide as we can. As individuals and as cultures we have a primal need to for continuity – I want my grandchildren to take my genetics, my ideas, my values into the future. And space is vast – what wonders await us? How many places can we set up little paradises in space? Will there be hot green chicks from Orion?

We’ve even categorized what these Galactic Empires look like – and a Soviet was the one to do it. Nikolai Kardashev came up with the scale in 1964, and came up with three categories:

Type 1 – Harness all the energy hitting your home planet.
Type 2 – Harness all the energy from your star.
Type 3 – Harness all the energy from your galaxy.

We’re type zero – we haven’t managed to harness every bit of energy hitting the Earth. Physicist Michio Kaku has stated he thinks we’re 100-200 years out from this goal. I think he’s just making that up with no particular backing. Just because Michio has a good handle on theoretical physics doesn’t mean he can even run his cell phone, let alone project civilizational development across centuries regarding multiple complex systems, cultures and projected technological progress. Oh, wait, he lives in New York. They know everything.

What’s required for a Galactic Empire?

New Physics (Maybe) – You can move across the galaxy within the span of a human lifetime. It’s actually conceptually not that difficult at all. Just move really, really fast. The faster you move, the slower that time moves (for you). Light takes 100,000 years to cross the galaxy. You could do it in a dozen years. I’ve even calculated how fast you’d have to go: Very close to the speed of light. How close? Within 10* miles per hour of the speed of light, which is 186,000 miles per second. And if you did it in that 10 year span, 100,000 years would still have passed on Earth. At least Blockbuster® is out of business so you don’t end up with the largest return fee in history.

Spoke too soon!

Excess Energy – Starships require energy – vast amounts. The starship (weighing a mere 80,000 pounds at rest mass) above would require 19X10²⁴ Joules* of energy to get up to speed. Sounds like a lot? It is. It’s the entire energy equivalent of every barrel of oil produced on Earth this year. For the next 34 million* years – or enough oil to fill a hole the size of New Mexico a mile deep*, or almost enough to cover Kim Kardashian’s butt. It’s a scale that’s incomprehensible to humans. There is literally NOTHING I can compare it to so it makes any sense. And that’s just the fuel. It would still need oxygen to burn in space, unless they left the vacuum off.
Back to New Physics – Just about every movie that deals with space travel uses warp drive or worm holes or some sort of jump drive. Why? Space is just too large and requires astonishing amounts of energy. Does this physics exist? Mexican physicist Miguel Alcubierre has set the (mathematical) groundwork for a . . . warp drive. He said was inspired by Star Trek™. Really. The way the warp drive works to move you quickly across the universe is simple – you cheat. You shrink the space in front of your ship, and stretch it behind your ship. It’s like running a forty yard dash in one step. See? Cheating.

Here is what warp drive might look like. Really.

Willpower – NASA (pronounced naaaay-saw) originally produced more enough rockets for three more missions to the Moon. They got cancelled when Congress saw a shiny new car they wanted to buy. The follow on Mars mission slated for that distant future of 1991 was cancelled when the nuclear rocket engine was cancelled. We have to wait for Elon Musk, I guess, I know that he and his rockets can both get high.
Economic Surplus – To invest in space requires a civilization with sufficient extra productive capacity, I mean, someone has to dig out New Mexico to store the oil. All kidding aside – a sustained program for spaceflight and technological improvements would be required lasting at a minimum for decades. And more likely the program would have to last for more than a century. And I can’t keep my attention in one place long enough to . . . oh, a bird.

*I really calculated those numbers – they’re not made up.

Why we might not have a Galactic Empire.

Space is hard. Every time we look space gets more complex. Huge speeds. Massive amounts of force. Complex systems that all must function. Then you add in long term effects of weightlessness on the human body, and the hard radiation that our life-giving Sun blasts out into the Solar System. The good news? I keep all my stuff on Earth.
Space is not politically popular. I remember reading a magazine that was geared towards construction, I picked it up one day at an office. There was an editorial cartoon showing the space shuttle, with the obvious background showing that we needed to spend more money on . . . sewers. Everybody wants those dollars. And, I’ll note that for years now the United States has had zero ability to put people into space, instead relying on Russian technology that is more or less Vietnam-war era. Also like your Mother. Oh, wait, she really might be that old.

This was an actual cartoon just after we landed men on the moon. Buzzkill!

That warp drive thing – it may depend on stuff that may not even exist. Exotic matter? Negative energy? We have seen no clues that this stuff even exists. So maybe Roddenberry was just all about the ladies and spinning a good yarn.
Energy requirements are vast. Unless the warp drive thing is real, well, we’d have to come up with an alternative propulsion system. Say . . . PEZ®? We could create a PEZ© drive. But for it to work, we would also need to create ANTI-PEZ™. ANTI-PEZ© is just PEZ™, but made of your normal, garden variety anti-matter. Unlike pesky oil, when you mix a PEZ™ with and ANTI-PEZ™ they annihilate each other, turning their mass into pure energy. The good news is that for our starship example above it will only take 110* years to make it at the current PEZ™ production rate of 3,000,000,000 PEZ™ per year. So, that’s 55 years of PEZ™, and 55 years of ANTI-PEZ™. I suggest we do the PEZ™ first, since we have absolutely NO idea how to make ANTI-PEZ™. Note that in this example, I’m assuming we don’t have to transport the mass of the PEZ™/ANTI-PEZ™ with the mass of the ship, and that the PEZ™/ANTI-PEZ™ reaction is 100% effective in adding energy to the ship. These aren’t outrageous assumptions given that I’ve just postulated a spaceship powered by PEZ™. Also? No way to stop the ship other than hitting something. And when you’re travelling at 99.99999712%* the speed of light? That might leave a mark.

PEZ

Timescales are vast. So, unless we spend vast amounts of energy, it will take years. And years. And that doesn’t seem like our Galactic Empire at all.

It’s not that a Galactic Empire is impossible, it’s just not horribly likely at this point. Who could go without PEZ® for 110 years???

*Again, real numbers. I really did do these calculations because it amused me to turn PEZ™ into a starship propellant.

What other alternatives that get us into space without a Galactic Empire?

All of these are potential ways to get into space. Note that we might have colonies, but we’d never have foreign exchange students or a Death Star®.

Seeding – We could send starships filled with stuff to make babies out to new planets. And then? Planet run by toddlers. Definitely need to send PEZ™ with them.

PEZ® – it can make or break a career.

Von Neumann Machines – We could send self-replicating robots out into the universe. They stop off at a new Solar System and build copies. And so on. Even NOT going much faster than 10% of light speed, in half a million years, these machines could be at every solar system in the Galaxy. We haven’t seen them . . . so it’s unlikely they’ve been made. Are we alone?
Generation Ships – We could send out vast habitats that support life for the thousands of years that it would take to move from one solar system to the next. Hopefully, in a thousand years the civilization didn’t go all Space Nazi, but I’ve seen enough TV to know that it’s 100% certain they will.
Space Tupperware – We could freeze ourselves (if this is possible) before shipping out. Downside? Freezer burn. Imagine cooking a 1000 year old steak. Now imagine BEING a 1000 year old steak.
Digitized Human Consciousness – We could digitize a human consciousness and send it into space! No food, no boredom, and it could go see other solar systems. Dunno about you, but for me this has all the excitement of shooting a Playstation IV™ into space with a copy of Red Dead Redemption 2.

Sadly, the future sold to us back in the day seems to be fairly unlikely. I’ll rank it against the competition in a future post. The bright side is that we won’t have PEZ™ shortages for the next 55 years. Until the killer robots develop a taste for it. Or until the Civil War breaks the factories or . . . OH, since this is a post about the future of humanity, I almost forgot – it has to have a picture of Oktoberfest girls. Silly me!

Readers Write: Early Retirement, Health Care, Canada, and Averting A Ben Affleck Marathon

Ricky:Â Boys, what is up with me getting shot with three darts, and it didn’t even affect me? Â I must be like a superhero or something.

Julian:Â Maybe you’ve got so much dope in your system, you’re immune, Rick.

â€“ Trailer Park Boys

See, your health care dollars are being spent on useless signs!Â An outrage!

Itâ€™s always nice to get feedback about the column in a letter that doesnâ€™t begin with an anatomical impossibility.Â I mean, how would my head even have gotten in there in the first place? Â And what does my mother have to do with anything?Â But, I thought this would be a great chance to take a few excerpts from the letter and mix with other communications Iâ€™ve had to revisit the topics of early retirement and health care from last week (Early Retirement: Things to Consider (cough Health Care cough)).

Comments in quotes are from my friend.Â Comments in [brackets] are from me.Â Comments in purple are a figment of your imagination.Â You should talk to someone or cut back on the recreational stuff.

â€œSo, I laughed when I read this post yesterday.Â I’ve been spinning off after reading the NY Times article on the FIRE movement and Mr. Money Mustache and others – and wondered if you knew about them… of course you did!â€

Yes.Â John Wilder knows everything that a mortal man can know, with the exception of how to properly mud and tape drywall.Â Thatâ€™s magician/wizard-level skill.

â€œSince I’m new to MMM [Mr. Money Mustache â€“ link to him here-JW] and others in the FIRE [Financially Independent, Retiring Early] community I was curious and excited, and then realized that I’ve known versions of people like this since my youth [but] they just seemed like weirdos at my parent’s church who recycled aluminum foil from pot luck dinners, rode tandem bikes to church, the husband hired himself out as a handyman outside his day job, and rode his bike to job site with his old timey tool box, etc.Â They seemed cheap, not enlightened, but it looks like they were on to something!â€

If youâ€™re going to be rich, a good thing to be is . . . invisibly rich.Â No private plane.Â No flashy cars.Â Just the satisfaction of knowing that you actually own the â€™04 Fordâ„¢ TaurusÂ© in the driveway of the nice but modest house.Â And this avoidance of spectacle also tends to reinforce the concept of not being a slave to your desires or needs for consumer products.Â Except for drones â€“ you need a drone â€“ life is not worth living without a drone.

I recall living in Houston and sitting at the stoplight in my three year old FordÂ® that I got for $12,000 (cash) next to a $180,000 MercedesÂ® SLWhateverX, and thinking . . . mine is paid for.Â I donâ€™t know if theirs was (my bet is that it wasnâ€™t) but I knew that mine was.Â And that I got to live with the lack of stress associated with no payments on a car.Â I felt this way when I was driving $2000 Chevyâ„¢ LuminaÂ©, too.

â€œWhile many [Early Retirement folks] got their start in higher paying professions like software engineering or investment banking, and then consciously live on 30-40% or less of their income, it does seem like a movement geared to minimalist millennials with few obligations.Â I can live on 60% of my pay without dipping into savings, but much less isn’t possible with obligations of a relatively cheap [Expensive Home Area] mortgage, frequent trips to [Home Area], living in a 65 year old house, and maxing out 401K contributions.â€

Yes.Â Agreed â€“ at various stages of my life Iâ€™ve been down to my last $50 in the checking account â€“ with a pretty hefty negative net worth.Â And, yes, obligations cost money.Â But almost all of the obligations we take on are (outside of death, child support, alimony, and taxes â€“ but I repeat myself) voluntary servitude.Â And itâ€™s okay, as long as you realize that the servitude was entered into . . . voluntarily.Â Unless there was tequila involved and she looked pretty after enough of it.Â Thankfully, since 2005 or so, Iâ€™ve been on the other end of it (wealth, not tequila goggles), but in large part that was due to severing that voluntary servitude, either through paying down debt (student loans) or not getting into debt (new cars).

â€œ[Specific Investment Stuff] Plus, I like what I do and where I live.Â [More Specific Investment Stuff].â€

This is the most important line in the letter.Â If you love what you do, and like where you live, why would you even consider retiring early?Â Financial independence is nice, but if youâ€™re gonna keep working because you want to and can save a nice chunk of cash while fully funding a 401K, why bother hurrying it?

â€œ[More Specific Investment Stuff and Personal Stuff] So how to build wealth when you still have obligations and don’t feel confident on putting your money to work in the market, or buying real estate in distant locations, etc.?â€

Cash is a long term loser â€“ but it sounds like youâ€™re funding your 401K to nearly the max.Â Iâ€™m not going to get into specific investment advice on the post (okay, ammunition, PEZÂ® and panty hose are always winners) but the first part of wealth is reduction in need.Â Just like the most expensive food in the fridge is the food you throw out, the biggest wealth destroyer is stuff you donâ€™t ever use.Â Like that stupid drone.

And, as for wealth?Â [Spoiler Alert] If we donâ€™t fix health care, our financial system will implode (more below).Â Oops.Â Does that make me a Debbie Downer?Â If so, do I have expanded restroom options?

â€œAnd then you hit the big nail on the head . . . â€œ

Naturally.

â€œHealth care.Â Our system is a mess and many 30-somethings are choosing to go without coverage in order to save more.Â That’s not an option at my age either, and I wonder how the FIRE folks living on the extreme cheap lifestyle will cope when they hit their 40’s and beyond as insurance rises beyond affordability.â€

He ended with a note that certain countries seemed to like government-run health care.

To be as clear as I can be using the English language:Â Like a Bush/Stalin lovechild, our hybridized system of health care combines the worst parts of rent-seeking crony capitalism and nanny-state big government socialism.

Letâ€™s take the parts everyone likes:Â Everyone must be treated at an emergency room regardless of ability to pay, government subsidies, and no pre-existing conditions.

Sure, everyone likes this!Â Sounds compassionate (with other peopleâ€™s money)!Â Heck, if I were irresponsible, Iâ€™d like it, too.

But it sets up the system where emergency rooms are clogged with people with minor conditions because they can get free treatment.Â Itâ€™s okay.Â The people who actually pay bills to the hospitals can pay for them, too, right?Â So, they pay for their care and the care of others.Â But then theyâ€™re taxed so that they can pay for insurance for others.Â And if there are no pre-existing conditions on health insurance, heck, donâ€™t sign up until you get really sick or old, thus making insurance for people (like me) who have had it their entire lives amazingly expensive.Â But itâ€™s okay, the CIGNA health insurance company went from a high $20â€™s stock when Obamacare passed to a stock that is worth $200 today, a 600% to 700% increase.Â Obamacare really stuck it to insurance companies.

No.Â Insurance companies wrote Obamacare.Â And donâ€™t get me started on hospitals or prescription drug manufacturers.Â While pretending to be a portion of the capitalist system, they really arenâ€™t â€“ they make use of government power to make rules that would be blatantly illegal for any other business.Â Imagine a taking your car into the auto mechanic and getting a bill of $500 for a $5 belt.Â Or a bill from a consulting mechanic who just walked by and asked if the car was doing okay.Â And then drive off with the original problem not solved, and then bill your for your TaurusÂ® giving birth to a Kiaâ„¢, when everyone knows that a TaurusÂ© identifies as male.

I donâ€™t like socialism, but it appears weâ€™ve socialized the responsibility while making the responsible pay with little to no benefit while corporate profits explode.

How does Canada do it?

In my YouTubeÂ® feed a video popped up about Canadian healthcare.Â In it, a video pundit named Steven Crowder went to Canada and tried to obtain treatment (with his Canadian friend) for a variety of minor ailments.Â No dice.Â Hours waiting, and nada.Â This is a similar story that Iâ€™d heard from others, so I thought Iâ€™d ask a friend who is Actually Canadian and eats nothing but back bacon while drinking MolsonÂ® and Mooseheadâ„¢.

She loves their system.Â Her mom had cancer, and got prompt treatments.Â They even picked her mom up and dropped her off from her chemotherapy sessions.Â And I hear if youâ€™ve had a heart attack the system works very well.Â And the care is good.

This explains why the only good television from Canada is Trailer Park Boys.

But my friend also talked through the darker side that Crowder talked about â€“ long waits â€“ months for minor surgery like fixing a bum knee.Â A full day to get a prescription for an ear infection.Â Every system has a mechanism for rationing.Â In a true capitalist system, itâ€™s money.Â In a socialist system, itâ€™s something else.Â In Canada?Â Minor pain and time.Â But like a year of minor pain â€“ sort of like being forced to watch nothing but Ben Affleck movies for a solid year.

Are taxes higher?Â Sure.Â It isnâ€™t a pure socialist system, and I havenâ€™t dug into the darkest side, but socialized medicine eventually (as resources dwindle) becomes a game where resources are rationed more aggressively.Â Except for the leaders â€“ they still exempt for themselves the best of everything.

Canadaâ€™s system does have a safety valve â€“ you can go to private clinics, too.Â And pay cash to avoid the Affleckathon.

All of the above still sucks.Â But itâ€™s still better than the thing we have today.

But is there a capitalist solution?Â Yeah.

I wonâ€™t go through the details, but Karl Denninger (LINK) has put together the â€œmostâ€ free-market alternative to our current system.Â It doesnâ€™t do like I would (letting folks die in the street is a big incentive to get insurance and drive costs down, plus it would mean much shorter lines at the checkout at WalMartÂ®) but, would manage to save the financial system of the United States if implemented.Â What would we lose?Â High profits for insurance companies.Â Huge numbers of bureaucrats.Â High drug costs.Â High insurance costs.

Do you lose exemptions for pre-existing conditions?Â Yup.Â But if you have insurance and have less than a 60 day lapse, those pre-existing conditions remain covered like they were in 2004.

Itâ€™s a good system, and necessary.Â Because if we donâ€™t fix healthcare?Â Itâ€™s not gonna kill us.

Itâ€™s going to wreck the entire financial system of the United States, as I write about here (More Budget Doom, The Rolling Stones, an End Date, and an Unlikely Version of Thunderstruck).

So, no biggie.

Civil War, Cool Maps, Censorship, and is Fort Sumter . . . Happening Now?

â€œWe might find the abandoned furnace room, or the old Civil War amputorium!â€ â€“ Malcom in the Middle

No problems in this map.Â None at all.Â Everything is as right as rain . . .

The following is (more or less) a discussion that occurred over several days as we sat in the hot tub.Â Iâ€™ll note that our speculation reflects things that we as observers and students of history and current events think are might happen, not what we want to happen.Â Itâ€™s edited for clarity and readability â€“ itâ€™s not a transcript, itâ€™s a blog post.Â In some cases a half an hour of conversation is only a sentence or two.

Honestly, this speculation is chilling enough to use as an air conditioner on a hot day . . . .Â Previous posts similar to this can be found here at The Coming Civil War (United States), Cool Maps, and Uncomfortable Truths,Â The Coming Civil War Part II, and a (Possible) American Caesar,andÂ Immigration, Freedom, Wealth, Corruption, and More Cool Maps.

The other day when we were in the hot tub, I rudely interrupted The Mrs.

John Wilder:Â â€œThatâ€™s enough of what you want to talk about.Â I have something to discuss.â€

The Mrs.:Â â€œWell that was rude!â€

John Wilder:Â â€œAnd thatâ€™s exactly how Iâ€™ll describe it in my post.â€

And yes, Internet, this was pretty close to the real conversation, but The Mrs. is used to it after being married to me for what she calls â€œan eternity.â€Â I guess time flies when youâ€™re having fun, right?Â Wait a minute . . . that eternity comment might not be a complement?

Anyway, as we luxuriated in the warm swirling waters of the tub, I threw out my discussion topic.

John Wilder:Â â€œAs we look at parallels from todayâ€™s developments to the last Civil War, I know that events, places and people wonâ€™t be exact matches, but they seem to rhyme.Â If you look at the contentiousness of, say, the presidential elections, thatâ€™s a pretty big parallel.Â Lincoln got only 40% of the popular vote, and that was against the first female candidate for president, John C. Breckenridge.â€

I think this map was influenced by the Russians since they wanted to sell us Alaska and knew only Lincoln was stupid enough to buy it.Â Thankfully the Russians seem to want it back.

â€œIf you look back in the past, Abraham Lincoln was elected president by a party that was only six years old after an election that was so divided that one side actually refused to acknowledge the results.Â If thatâ€™s not a hallmark of a society unravelling, Iâ€™m not sure what is.â€

â€œBut,â€ I continued, â€œthe people didnâ€™t just drop everything one morning and yell at their neighbor and say â€˜THATâ€™S IT!â€™ Â There were a series of escalations that society went through that made it seem like it would be a good idea to blow up Virginia.Â And one of those events was Bleeding Kansas.â€

Bleeding Kansas was that period when violent groups (on both sides) ended up fighting each other over whether Kansas would enter the Union as a free state where slavery would be illegal or not.Â Things got heated.Â On the floor of the United States Senate:

â€œSumner ridiculed the honor of elderly South Carolina Senator Andrew Butler, portraying Butler’s pro-slavery agenda towards Kansas with the raping of a virgin and characterizing his affection for it in sexual and revolting terms.â€ (Wikipedia)

The next day, Butlerâ€™s cousin (A congressman named Preston Brooks) showed up and nearly killed Sumner by beating him with a cane.

So, if youâ€™ve never been â€œbeating a guy nearly to death with a cane mad,â€ maybe Congress wasnâ€™t the place for you in the 1850â€™s.

This was originally published by CNN â€“ the Cane News Network â€“ all canes, all the time.

Eventually Bleeding Kansas ended up as a big mess, with multiple battles (death toll total of 56, per Wikipedia), with there being multiple elections, crazy vote manipulation, and at least four territorial constitutions sent to the United States Senate for approval.Â And it gave us the album cover for the debut album of the prog-rock band KansasÂ®, which might make up for the death toll?

Tragic Prelude, by John Stewart Curry – John Brown is the crazy looking dude with the ZZ Top beard and Eraserhead hair in the middle.Â True fact:Â John Brown was really 12 feet tall, and the reason that basketball was invented in Kansas was so he could have a sport to play.

So, back to the hot tub.

John Wilder:Â â€œIâ€™m thinking that FergusonÂ® and Black Lives Matterâ„¢ is the Bleeding Kansas of today?â€

The Mrs.:Â â€œI donâ€™t know.â€

John Wilder:Â â€œMaybe AntifaÂ©?

The Mrs.:Â â€œYes.Â AntifaÂ©.Â The level of violence that they initiate is amazing, and they think that their violence is justified.Â Their violence isnâ€™t real violence because they think they have a good reason to be violent.Â Just as Antifaâ€™sÂ® racism isnâ€™t real racism because they have a good reason to be racist.â€

I nodded.

The Mrs. continued, â€œBut I wonder if a civil war is possible at all.Â There isnâ€™t the same geographic concentration that there was during the 1850â€™s.Â You donâ€™t have a group of industrialists in the north competing against the agricultural south.â€

John Wilder:Â â€œBut you do have the rural-urban divide.Â Heck, our county here went 80% for Trump.â€

The Mrs.:Â â€œAnd our county has all of the guns.â€

John Wilder:Â â€œWe do now.Â But groups like Anitfaâ„¢ have shown that theyâ€™re not afraid to use violence.Â In our county we donâ€™t even lock our doors because either weâ€™re too nice to steal much or the thieves know that behind every door is a 12 gauge shotgun or an AR-15.â€

The Mrs.:Â â€œTrue.â€

John Wilder:Â â€œGuns arenâ€™t that hard to get, or hard to learn how to use.Â Oh, sure, you have to really work at being able to do a 500 yard shot with a 20 mph crosswind (15 kilometers with a 20 liter crosswind for the metric-impaired) but half of Africa was conquered by revolutionaries who couldnâ€™t even read with AK-47s that were built in factories in Bulgaria whose idea of a precision tool was a sledgehammer.â€

The Mrs.:Â â€œI can see that.Â But weâ€™re not as concentrated as we were back then.â€

John Wilder:Â â€œHave you seen this map?Â We are divided geographically â€“ and one side lives in a really small area, while the other side lives in the country.Â Coincidentally, thatâ€™s where all the soldiers come from â€“ rural places like where we live.Â And we make all of the food and most of the energy.â€

The Mrs.:Â â€œYeah.Â Non-Trump counties make television shows and TeslasÂ®.Â Oh, and they lead the country in corruption, poverty, and crime.Â So I guess it could happen, but it would be a lot more chaotic than the first Civil War.â€

John Wilder:Â â€œSure, I think the chaos is pretty much a given.Â No way to predict where will be safe.Â So, whatâ€™s our Uncle Tomâ€™s Cabin?â€

Uncle Tomâ€™s Cabin, a book that was instrumental in setting the stage for the Civil War was the most popular book in the United States (besides the Bible) in the 1800â€™s.Â However, not long after it was published, it was strictly censored across the many Southern states.Â One man was sentenced to 10 years in prison for owning a copy of the book, and that was before the Civil War started.Â The book would be wholly censored across the Confederate States during the Civil War.

John Wilder:Â â€œIs it Alex Jones?â€

The Mrs.:Â â€œYes, that feels right.â€

Alex Jones is a radio talk show host that specializes in fringe news stories â€“ news stories the regular media doesnâ€™t cover, and news stories that are at times thinly checked (at best) and at times far in advance of â€œmainstreamâ€ news.Â And Jones has been an equal opportunity political poo-flinger.Â Heâ€™s gone after Clinton, Bush, and Obama.Â Republican or Democrat?Â He doesnâ€™t seem to care.Â To be fair, Jones has been a fairly consistent proponent of Trump.

Free speech is important, itâ€™s written in Silicon Valleyâ€™s DNA, right?Â No.Â On a single day, Jones was banned or punished in some fashion from FacebookÂ®, YouTubeÂ©, SpotifyÂ®, Amazonâ„¢, and PinterestÂ©.Â Soon enough LinkedInâ„¢, YouPornÂ® (huh?) and MailChimpÂ® (whatever that is) followed.

No one in the hot tub felt that Alex Jones represented the gold standard for journalism, but his silence was a sign that ideas outside of those of the gatekeepers could simply not be tolerated.Â I spent some time looking for examples of â€œhate speechâ€ that was supposedly the cause of his being banned.Â I found nothing worse than the usual hyperbole of the left, and certainly nothing as personally threatening as many things celebrities and journalists said in the heat of the moment following Trumpâ€™s victory in November of 2016.

The concept that he was censored amazed me.Â Bombastic?Â Yes.Â Over the top?Â Sure.Â The WWEâ„¢ of news?Â Absolutely.

Something to be suppressed and censored?Â Wow.Â Speech an entire party (nearly) agrees should be banned?Â Double wow.Â But free speech seems to have few fans on the left now.

Now I know where my wallet went . . . George Soros has it!

But back to the hot tub.Â By this time, The Boy had joined us.Â I think Pugsley was inside napping, or maybe working on connecting his brain directly to the Internet through a device he was making based on a YouTube video.Â Pugsley had been looking for a drill, some hydrogen peroxide, and an N-size battery, so he might by a cyborg by now.

John Wilder:Â â€œWhat other events were there on the way to the Civil War?â€Â Since The Boy had taken US history most recently, perhaps some things were fresher in his mind, and since we were in the hot tub, it was easier to ask him than to GoogleÂ® it.

The Boy:Â â€œWhat about the Dredd Scott decision?Â That was a biggy.â€

John Wilder:Â â€œYes, even the courts were involved in the unravelling before the Civil War.Â But with the people divided as they were â€“ Dredd Scott could have been decided either way and would have inflamed one side or the other.Â In this case, it drove the North nuts.Â If they had decided the other way?Â It would have driven the South nuts.Â A no-win situation.Â The sides werenâ€™t even talking the same language at that point.â€

The Boy:Â â€œWell, I guess that leaves Fort Sumter.â€

John Wilder:Â â€œSo what does our Fort Sumter take place?Â Or has it already?â€

Fort Sumter was the spot, on April 12, 1861, at 4:30AM, Confederate soldiers fired on the Union Fort.Â (Spoiler, they won.)Â Fort Sumter is notable because even after Southern secession, several months passed before the first shots were fired there.Â It was as if there was a hope that things could be brought back together, that there was some alternative to war.

John Wilder:Â â€œSo what is it, what does it look like?Â Does it occur after a Trump 2020 victory?â€

The Mrs.:Â â€œWell maybe sooner.Â If the Republicans continue to hold the House after the 2018 election, I think that might make California secede.Â From what I seen on FacebookÂ®, theyâ€™re in a frenzy already.Â They canâ€™t even stand the idea of Trump finishing a single term.â€

John Wilder:Â â€œWhat if . . . what if Fort Sumter is going on right now?Â Letâ€™s look at it:Â there was a part of the government, in that case the states, which denied the legitimacy of the sitting president.Â Okay, they might have thought him legitimate but they decided that they didnâ€™t want be a part of it.Â Isnâ€™t thatâ€™s whatâ€™s going on right now with the Deep State?Â Insurance policies?Â Investigations into people not because of a crime, but investigations of people to find a crime to prosecute them for because they donâ€™t have the right political belief, that theyâ€™re not part of the right club that gets bacon-wrapped shrimp at the Friday get-togethers?â€

The Boy:Â â€œNot sure if that fits.Â Maybe.Â Maybe.â€

John Wilder:Â â€œAn attack doesnâ€™t require that the militia brings out cannons and shells Dallas.Â No, if you look at that, plus the sanctuary cities, plus the judiciary routinely ruling against Trump on things that they would have rubber-stamped for Obama?Â Is this open insurrection right now, just not with cannon?â€

The Boy:Â â€œIâ€™m not sure.Â But I do think I know the end point of all of this.Â Iâ€™ve been thinking . . .â€

And he had a pretty insightful observation.Â More on that next Monday, I think.

Retirement Spreadsheets, The Apocalypse, and You

“Mama always said life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.” – Forrest Gump

I have no idea where this came from. But it’s exactly like the one they read to me when I was a wee Wilder.

I have an enormous spreadsheet. Okay, it’s not really enormous – I’ve made and used much bigger ones at work to calculate the number of licks to get to the center of at Tootsie Roll® Tootsie Pop™. The number of licks is 573,212 – and not one lick more or less.

This particular spreadsheet:

Has yearly calculations from the year 2014 (when I started it) until I turn 103 years old.
Divides my spending into 16 categories.
Has separate rates of inflation for each category (average inflation rate is 3.6%).
Has spots for assumed investment income as well as variable future income from work.
Has projected balances on 11 accounts, plus assumed rates of growth.
Graphically projects income and net worth . . . until I reach an age where 99.9% of people are dead.

I did use this spreadsheet for one pretty important decision – whether to change jobs back in 2014. My option back then was to chuck my current job and take a job where I would have a risky proposition at making a big payout in three years or so. The big payout would have been enough to retire on when combined with my net worth back then, for sure. Attractive, right?

But it was risky. How risky? My first guess was that there was a pretty low probability that it would pay out. How low? Maybe 20% chance?

I ranked that against staying in my current job. I did the math, and it looked like if I could keep my current job for three more years that I could take a differing job, say a high school teacher or flaming poodle-juggler (juggling flaming poodles, not juggling poodles while on fire – that would be stupid), and still keep my standard of living. Three years of high stress for (relative) economic freedom, or at least more choices.

Hmmm.

I ended up not taking the job, and the risky part won – the job would have been worth much less than the job I would have left, plus the boss I would have worked for? Yeah, he died three months later. And my math was right – I’m about where I expected to be as far as net worth.

But I know my prediction is wrong:

It assumes that inflation is rather low for a long-ish period – something that I’m not sure is realistic in an economy where the government is attempting to print money as fast as Elon Musk says stupid things on Twitter®. Seriously, Elon, filter, dude, filter.
My investments earn about 2.5% every year, after inflation.
There’s nothing in there about a civil war or societal collapse.

Huh? What investments make 2.5% every year after inflation?

No, I kid.

But there’s an entire subgroup of people of people who are preparing for societal collapse – preppers. They even make television shows about them so that people who are stockpiling food for when the apocalypse comes advertise where they keep all that food. Thankfully none of their neighbors will remember that after the apocalypse.

I guess (in a small way) that I’m a prepper, too. The spreadsheet was my prepping – preparing for my career future – and my saving for eventual retirement is prepping, too.

Prepping is preparing, and when done right, it should prepare you for a range of options. I could liquidate my retirement fortune and buy lots of oatmeal, bendie-straws and PEZ®, but in the sad event that Mad Max® is not the template for the future world, well, what do I do with all those bendie-straws now that California has made them illegal since they enacted common-sense straw registration.

In Houston, we rode out Hurricane Ike back in 2008. Here is part of what I wrote then – you can find the full thing here (LINK) if you scroll down a bit:

Wow. Didn’t see that coming.

Oh, wait, we did. On radar, on the radio, on the Intertubes. As I said, it was unlikely that we’d stop until the power stopped or the beer ran out.

I still have beer.

At 6:20PM, the lights went out. They flickered on, off, on, off, on, then finally, utterly, off.

(Skipping long description of storm – and moving to the next day.)

We listened to the radio, which mainly told us that the power company wasn’t going to do anything that day (though, that afternoon, The Mrs. indicated that the power had flickered while The Boys and I went out to reconnoiter. Sorry that we missed it, but we did find that there was power on either side of us, not three miles away. No stores were open, and we had no phones. Thankfully, one of the previous announcements for hurricane preparedness had told us to have “food, water, and ammunition” (I am not making this up). We had food for a month, water for a similar time, plus more ammunition than the Pakistani army. We were set.

Eventually, washing came up. I avoided the subject. The Mrs. doused The Boy and Pugsley with coldish water (they howled) and then we ate cold Spaghetti-O’s® and sat around in the dim candlelight. Living in the 18th Century was rapidly losing its charm.

The radio had limited information. The hosts kept telling us to check their website for more information, even though 98% of their listeners were without power. Perhaps the average person has a hand-crank satellite Internet connection?

Then FEMA came on and indicated that you could contact them by calling (no phone!) or by Internet. The Mayor of Houston indicated that within 24 hours they would have 24 trucks of ice in, but he didn’t say where they’d be. He didn’t know.

A representative from our power provider indicated that we might be out of power forever, really, since they had no idea where that mythical lightning in the wire came from. It was really a mystery to them. They even indicated that changing a light bulb might require Federal authority. They began blaming FEMA for the problem. (In actuality, they said that it might be four weeks until the power was back on, in which case I would be looking for a suit of armor, a mighty steed, and a really cool battle-axe.)

On night one, The Mrs. and I had grilled hot dogs over candles. It worked okay, but our hot dogs tasted a bit like apple potpourri. We started cooking over propane the next day.

The next morning I made coffee for The Mrs. and I. It improved our disposition greatly. Then I cooked ribeye steaks that I’d gotten on sale and frozen. That helped our disposition more. Ribeye for breakfast? Mmmmm.

I took The Boy and Pugsley to see if we could get a generator. This act in Houston (currently) would be like searching for Paris Hilton’s virginity – just not there anymore. Lowe’s® was open, and had a generator. Nah, just kidding. They had bottled water and some Chiclets©.

It appears that hurricanes smell like sex to fire ants (jerkusantus invictus). I got bit five times pulling branches out of my formerly fire-ant free backyard. I then unleashed a genocide of Biblical proportions on them, making the chemical warfare of WWI look like a Disney production of The Little Mermaid® in Candyland™.

I went back inside, and the power-gods deigned to tease us again. The lights flickered during dinner (T-bones and bratwurst saved from spoiling through immolation).

The utter lack of information was maddening. Anecdotal reports of FEMA commandeering truckloads of generators. Reports that Responders (I am ever so tired of that word) being stuck without food – you’da thunk they would have thought far enough ahead to stock up their patrol cars with Snickers®, pantyhose and Pez™ before heading to Houston. No. A Congresscritter was on the air complaining that the responders didn’t food, and wanted THE PEOPLE WHO HAD NO POWER TO COME TO THE NICE AIR CONDITIONED AND POWERED PLACE AND BRING THEM FOOD.

If you’re a responder without chow, you’re part of the problem, not the solution, bubba. I was not feeling sympathetic as I threw out $200 in spoiled food.

Power? That was a myth at this point, the electric company representative, and never really existed. Those things that you call “outlets”? Used for hanging meat to feed short animals. The representative suggested burning furniture to boil water to create steam to power a crude generator. I would have built one, but I had no power for my welder.

We went to bed early. Nice. The next day I went to work, to an office with power. And ice. And TV. I charged the laptops so the kids could watch Garfield© DVD’s. I had hot coffee. A functioning microwave to dry my socks. I’m not sure why I came home. Oh, yeah, the fam.

I headed home. I saw . . . our porch lights on.

The mythical lightning had returned.

We were actually really prepared for Hurricane Ike. And we were only out of power for a few days but in reality we could have handled several weeks.

And preppers are really prepared for emergencies. Some of them have complete surgery kits, antibiotics, and armored vehicles on remote homesteads powered by solar power. Plus they have gear to survive chemical warfare similar to what an army battalion could attack with after a late-night visit to Taco Bell®.

But the future is funny, because it’s squirmy. It won’t be as you expect or predict:

You might have higher inflation.
A totalitarian government might arise when Chelsea Clinton is named Pope®.
You might rip the crotch of your jeans during a softball game.
The Swiss might finally snap and launch a surprise nuclear attack at the rest of the world.

Each situation that you might run into requires a different response, but in the meantime you have to plan to live a life, but have plans to respond to most reasonable situations.

Should you plan for the stores to be out of food for a week? Sure. Should you plan for no power for a week? Absolutely – a big ice storm can take out the power for months in some locations.

But if the stores were closed for months? Yeah, that’s a response that’s categorically different, and depends a LOT on where you live. I live where most of the food comes from – there are grain elevators and cows all around. In New York City? Not so much. But like a wedding between Vladimir Putin and California Governor Jerry Brown, though possible, it’s just not very likely.

Are there general rules to a major disaster? Maybe. Here’s a first pass at some based on my experiences where I was in situations that approximated a disaster:

Be flexible. You don’t know the future, but if you’re alert, and think, you can guess at some probably things that might
Be the first out of the door. When it’s obvious that your situation has gone to hell, get out. Get in line for the re-routed plane. Get a rental car. Being late makes everyone in front of you your competition. Don’t put yourself in that position.
Understand that gone is gone. The universe doesn’t care if it’s not right. The universe doesn’t care if it’s not fair. And during an emergency, neither should you. Your plans are changed. Your house is on fire. Your PEZ® has been stolen by the ghost of Tom Petty in a kimono. Deal with the situation, not your feelings.
Understand that the old rules may not apply. Again, deal with the situation, not your feelings.
Regions matter. Your behavior should tie to the location you’re in. I’d rather be in central Iowa a year after an apocalypse than Chicago on a Tuesday.
Values and prices change rapidly. $10 for a bag of ice is a bargain if it saves $200 in food.
Laying food and supplies in before an event makes you smart, and removes you from being part of the problem. Doing it after the disaster makes you a hoarder and part of the problem. Looters and hoarders get shot.
Preppers look like hoarders to hungry people. Don’t talk about your stuff, or sit on the back deck having a ribeye when your neighbor is boiled grain from the silo near the railroad tracks.
Make sure you account for taxation when looking at your investment gains in your retirement portfolio.

2018 Predictions – Second Quarter Review

â€œYou want a prediction about the weather, you’re asking the wrong Phil. I’ll give you a weather prediction: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last for the rest of your life.â€ â€“ Groundhog Day

Yeah, I guess this might have been wrong, since I now bathe in gasoline since itâ€™s cheaper than bottled water or milk.

Okay, in an experiment in economic forecasting, I decided to do some financial predictions for 2018 (2018 Predictions â€“ Wealth).Â Why?Â It seems like itâ€™s what bloggers do:Â they predict things poorly, and I decided I could do that poorly.Â Even more poorly than television forecasters, but thatâ€™s hard â€“ they donâ€™t put what they say into print, so they change it every week.

I also promised a quarterly report card, and this is the second one.Â So how are my predictions matching with reality?

Mixed bag.Â One real stinker, the rest are still possible, at least in several games of Falloutâ„¢ that Pugsley has played.Â FalloutÂ© is just like real life, right?

But please note that when I explain what I think happened, Iâ€™m not trying some sort of argument to the effect of:Â â€œI would have been right, but . . .â€ followed by some lame excuse.Â No.Â If I was wrong, I was wrong (to date, the year isnâ€™t done, remember?) but much like a goldfish, I do have the ability to learn.

Oh, what were we talking about?Â Fish flakes?Â No.Â Bitcoin.Â Which might be worth less than fish flakes.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is on life support, and a lawsuit has been filed in district court to let this prediction die, but this was overruled by the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals (which also recently ruled that Kim Jong Un *must* restart his nuclear program, and, in general do stuff to prove Democrats Were Right All Along).Â It is by far my worst prediction.Â It has all of the risks shown below:

It (may) be vulnerable to hacking since itâ€™s based on an NSA product â€“ there may be hidden back doors. Or, the NSA might just hack your computer and steal all your Bitcoin that way.Â Itâ€™s like doing taxes, but you donâ€™t have to file.
Wal-MartÂ® doesnâ€™t take it. Â How many Bitcoin for that Chinese made grill?Â Nobody knows.
Itâ€™s as volatile as a bi-polar ex-wife on meth. It looks more promising than Johnny Deppâ€™s career.
The IRS has categorized each Bitcoin transaction as a taxable event. Â Nobody keeps those kinds of records, and that is an absolute block for people wanting to use it like youâ€™d use a dollar bill.Â That moves it from a currency to an investment vehicle.Â Use as a currency inherently raises the value of Bitcoin, but this moves it away from that.

My prediction in December:

â€œI think it might have more to fall before it becomes stabilized, maybe to $10,000.Â But I predict it would be higher than $20,000 next December.â€ (June 2018 John Wilder says:Â â€œDecember John Wilder was not stoned.Â But that at least would have been a good excuse for this stupid prediction.â€)

Second Quarter Scorecard:

Howâ€™s that working so far?Â In the first quarter, it was bouncing around my $10,000 prediction for the stabilization number.Â Now?Â $6,000.Â Ugly.Â And thereâ€™s no reason it canâ€™t drop more.

The Stock Market

In December I said:Â â€œThe biggest risks are North Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, with anything that created higher oil prices being the biggest risk.Â Chances of impeachment this year?Â Nearly zero.â€Â To show you how much the world has moved on, I struck out all of the things that didnâ€™t go wrong this year.Â Things are, generally, going very well indeed.

New Risks Since December Prediction

Democrats taking the House of Representatives in November â€“ this is a risk because it greatly increases political uncertainty. Thatâ€™s a huge risk the market has not priced in.Â October will be the most volatile month this year, if the Republicans keep the House.Â If they lose the house â€“ November will be a very difficult month in the Market.Â But if Pelosi keeps talking Trump keeps Trumping â€“ the Republicans have nothing to fear.
How much will the Fed increase interest rates (see below)?
Is FacebookÂ® in trouble for data? Facebookâ„¢ might be the spark that melts the market down . . . or not.

2018 Prediction on the S&P 500:

â€œUp.Â Not 24%.Â But up, say, 10%.Â 2019?Â Weâ€™ll see.â€

Second Quarter Scorecard:

So far, year to date, itâ€™s now down 1.8%.Â No real problem there â€“ it can still easily hit my 10% mark.Â And if the Republicans win bigly in November?Â 10% is an easy achievement.Â This tale will be told in October and November, I think.

Interest Rates:

Weâ€™re recovering from the longest period of low interest rates in history.Â All of history.Â It really wonâ€™t make a difference, but the Federal Reserve simply must increase rates so that we can pretend that the money isnâ€™t all made up.Â Eventually if thereâ€™s a credible alternative (Bitcoin? Swiss Francs?) the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates . . . a lot.

If itâ€™s too much this year, weâ€™ll enter a recession â€“ maybe right away.Â I donâ€™t think thatâ€™s likely in 2018.Â Trumpâ€™s Fed chair will want to raise the rates â€“ after this election.Â Maybe right after, so the economic pain is over and done with by the 2020 election.

2018 Prediction on the Federal Reserve Rate:

â€œUp slightly.Â Eventually (2019, 2020?) up a lot.â€

Second Quarter Scorecard:

The Fed funds rate has gone up, 0.25% and will likely go up more.Â If that doesnâ€™t sound like much, youâ€™re wrong â€“ it went up from 1.75% to 2.0%.Â Thatâ€™s increasing rates by 14%, and itâ€™s nearly certain the Fed will increase rates two or three more times this year.

Mortgage rates have gone up from 3.95% to 4.52%.Â Not a lot, but there will be more to come . . . Â Â Seems in line with my prediction (so far).

Gold/Silver:

2018 Prediction on the Gold/Silver:

â€œMeh.Â Wanders back and forth.Â Probably ends the year +/-10% of where it started.Â 2019 or 2020 might be different stories, and longer term it will still experience huge upward swings during times of uncertainty.Â It appears weâ€™re currently at the â€œno crisisâ€ pricing, which would probably be a good time to stock up.â€

Second Quarter Scorecard:

Gold is down 0.4% for the year.Â Silver is up 2%.Â Itâ€™s wandering (for now), so itâ€™s in line with predictions.

Please note that when a stock market crisis hits (not if, but when) ALL asset classes will drop in price (except for food and ammo).Â Thatâ€™s generally a great time to buy gold.Â If itâ€™s an inflationary spike?Â Yeah, youâ€™ll be too late for the party â€“ people will dump dollars to buy commodities like gold.

Disclaimer:Â I havenâ€™t started any positions in anything above the last three days and donâ€™t expect to start any in the next three.Â So there, neener, neenter.Â Also, Iâ€™m not a decent financial advisor, and this set of â€œpredictionsâ€ is probably as good as Katy Perryâ€™s kitchen whiteboard for predicting the future and probably worse than flipping a coin.

The Coming Civil War (United States), Cool Maps, and Uncomfortable Truths

“Well, l could be wrong, but l believe diversity is an old, old wooden ship that was used during the Civil War era. l would be surprised if the affiliates were concerned about the lack of an old wooden ship, but nice try.” – Anchorman

politicalspectrum

So, I guess that my “Secretly Wants To Live in a Post-Apocalyptic Society” secret is out of the bag? I guess I need more dehydrated food. And scotch.

(Part II of this series is posted at: The Coming Civil War Part II, and a (Possible) American Caesar)

There are some posts where I know exactly what I want to say, and how I want to say it. Often, those are fairly well scripted, either with a handwritten first draft or a set of researched bullet points. I’ll expand those into the full post. Those are nice. The structure has been created. The post flows out.

Some topics are topics that are well planned out (I actually plan the blog topics about three months out) and fit. Some topics just hit me with a blast of inspiration and nearly write themselves.

And some are difficult. Very difficult – they occupy headspace I know that I’m going to write about them, but the issue is so difficult that I want to make sure it comes out how I want it to come out, that it doesn’t inadvertently come out in some sort of ham-handed way. This is one of those. I’m sort of pleased with the results – it came out the way I wanted it to come out, just like the ending to Breaking Bad, or Jean-Claude Van Damme’s last optometry appointment – he still doesn’t need glasses, yay!

Don’t know a great way to put this, but we’re (in the United States, and in Europe, though my read there is much murkier) heading towards civil war. In Europe, civil war means dissolution of the EU and (likely) expulsion of large numbers of immigrants. But I’m not European, so I won’t go too far speculating about them.

I’m not sure if it will be a decade off or longer, but I put the arrival of this war as soon as 2024, and as late as 2032. Not really any longer than that. What would stop it is a prolonged, total war that would challenge the very existence of the United States. External threats and an external enemy are the best way to create unity (and second term for a president named “Bush”). And that’s not good, because a prolonged war always leads to extremes, and we have extreme weapons – in that way, a civil war might be the best-case scenario. But I digress – back to civil war.

Why? Again, this won’t be exactly the same civil war as THE Civil War – there are some facets that will rhyme, but others that won’t. The major theme is division. And what better way to show that than with . . . maps.

Here’s a map from Colin Woodward and Tufts University, and Brian Stauffer, depicting the 11 cultures that they contend make up the United States:

11nations

So, there’s this. Accurate? I would personally draw a line between those who like Star Wars® instead of Star Trek™. Those people are awful.

And it’s not just culture, the Woodward/Tufts map is pretty accurate at predicting where we are today politically. Here is a map of the Clinton/Trump 2016 vote count:

vote-by-nation-2016

The redder you are, the more Trump. The overlay of the Woodard/Tufts map is clear. These cultures are significant, and real, and explain NASCAR®, country music, and the inexplicable popularity of PEZ®.

And I think I’ve graphically made my case for there being a division. But how significant is it? Well, research shows that it’s pretty one-sided. Liberals (at least young ones) are significantly more close-minded than conservatives:

civilwarstats

Yes, you read that right. 45% of liberals would be uncomfortable with a roommate with opposing political views. 12% of conservatives would be uncomfortable. I guess this means that liberals don’t like diversity?

In 49 B.C., Julius Caesar was ordered back to Rome. Quite specifically, he was ordered to leave his army, the 13^th Legion (Legio XIII, Gemina, or “Twins”) beyond the border of the Rubicon river, which was considered the northern border of Rome. He didn’t, and then spawned a civil war that (ultimately) led to the end of the Roman Republic and Caesar being proclaimed Emperor. To this day we celebrate this event by ordering salads in Caesar’s name.

geminaxiii

The last time the 13^th Legion was active, I think they got in line in front of me at Arby’s® in Boulder, Colorado after a Van Halen© concert. Man, when 4,000 people are in front of you in line, you’d expect they’d run out of roast beef. They did. Thankfully they had lots of panda and koala bear left. They also ran out of Horsey Sauce L. They claimed they ran out of horses.

So we have divisions that are significant, enduring (these divisions aren’t new), and deep. Yet for decades we haven’t had a problem. Why are we at the Rubicon?

Well, we were ethnically much more uniform than today. The United States in 1965 (at the time of a major change to immigration policy) was 85% white. Now? 62%. That’s a pretty significant change, and one that impacts politics. Again, cultural divisions lead to war. And the easiest division is what you look like. I know that people like to fight and will pick any old reason to fight. Religion in Northern Ireland (Protestants and Catholics), football in California (Raiders™ vs. 49er’s©), and really important stuff (Star Wars© vs. Star Trek™). People will fight each other to the death because we don’t like each other’s hats. Historically, multi-cultural societies . . . fail. Spectacularly. (Again, this is not an indictment of any individual group, just a reading of history.)

But civil war in the United States is . . . very singular. The Civil War was built upon philosophical differences (with very human consequences). Issues involved in the Civil War include slavery, states’ rights, and Northern industrialism versus Southern agrarianism. But one of the underlying causes might just be that map of the 11 cultures shown above. The Northern states were built on the Puritan ethic. They make up the Boston/New York corridor and the swath heading west from that. The Southern states were built upon scoundrels – the Irish malcontents and Scottish reivers that immigrated later. They’re the ones that make up Greater Appalachia.

So what will cause a civil war in the United States?

The first thing is the philosophic divisions listed above. The desire for the freedom of individual determination is still strong in the Deep South and in Greater Appalachia and the Far West. That hasn’t changed. The Puritans in Yankeedom and the Left Coast still very much want to make their values the only values that matter. Note the graph above that shows relative discomfort with diverse exhibited by liberals. Ouch!

These groups have hated each other since the 1600’s. And it will never go away, especially as long as the New England Patriots® keep winning Super Bowls™. The two sides have never spoken the same language. The time that both North and South united? After the Civil War, the North (magnanimously) allowed the South to keep their heroes (Lee, Stuart, Jackson, Davis) and they were transformed into American heroes rather than insurrectionist traitors. Not a bad trade.

There were places that held out – the first celebration of July 4^th after the Civil War in Vicksburg was on July 4^th, 1945. Admittedly, Vicksburg surrendered on July 4^th after a horrific siege and devastating defeat for the Confederacy. It took 80 years and winning not one, but two world wars for Vicksburg to celebrate national unity on a regular basis on July 4. These divisions remain to this day.

But what else will cause this war?

The Fourth Turning – it’s time. Here’s a previous post (The Economy, The Fourth Turning, Kondratieff, and You.) that explains this timing in more detail. The last generation to have experience the horror associated with total war, with the mobilization of the entire economy of the United States to defeat a foe is . . . dead. The youngest boys that landed on Omaha Beach on D-Day are 95 today. They control nothing.

Our leadership, our population has no connection to those that saw the horrors of a continent ripped apart by war. They led our nation (and all of the nations of the West) and their actions were held in check by the horrors that they had seen. Now their experiences no longer temper the actions of the leaders (and desires of the people) to avoid apocalyptic levels of violence.

Let’s continue with economics – I’ve discussed before that the current economic practices have a time limit (More Budget Doom, The Rolling Stones, an End Date, and an Unlikely Version of Thunderstruck). One cause of civil war (not necessary, but certainly an exacerbating cause) is economic collapse. When people have more to lose than to gain, they won’t fight. As Janis Joplin said, “Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose.” And when people are ruined? They fight. See the French Revolution (Robespierre, Stalin, Mao, Mangos and A Future That Must Not Be).

Economics will be a trigger, but not the underlying cause of division listed above.

So, we have a civil war. What’s the end look like?

Breakup.

I don’t think that the things that have held us together as a nation will continue to hold us together. What values do we have in common anymore? It seems like . . . none. Let me elaborate. I could do a post on each of these (and likely won’t – other people cover this on a regular basis, so unless I have a Wilder take, I won’t):

Guns
Abortion
r versus K (r/K Selection Theory, or Why Thanksgiving is Tense* (for some people))
Economic Freedom
Role of Absolute Morality
Definition of what is an American
Globalism versus Nationalism
Cultural Relativism
Judicial Activism
Does Evil Exist?

We don’t speak the same language at all, anymore. Even though I have friends that don’t (at all) agree with me politically, I fear that they aren’t the norm. The end state isn’t 11 countries. It’s probably (at least) four. I can see a Heartland State, an East Coast, a West Coast, and a Northern Mexico. Los Angeles will be Mexico. Portland, San Francisco, and Seattle will be East Coast. The Boston/Manhattan/DC corridor will be East Coast. Northern Mexico will be as shown as El Norte.

But on the bright side? Jean-Claude Van Damme doesn’t need glasses!!! How awesome is that?

2018 Wealth Predictions: 1st Quarter Update

â€œBattalions of Orcs are crossing the river.Â lt is as the Lord Denethor predicted.â€ â€“ Lord of the Rings

Two million dollars? Â Some people donâ€™t make that much money in a whole year!

I promised a quarterly update on my Wealth predictions for 2018.Â So, here it is.Â So far, Iâ€™m doing okay.Â Weâ€™ll check back in June to laugh at the how things have gone off the rails.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is the ugly stepbrother of currencies.Â Or itâ€™s CinderellaÂ®.Â I categorized the risks previously:

It (may) be vulnerable to hacking since itâ€™s based on an NSA product â€“ there may be hidden back doors.
Wal-MartÂ® doesnâ€™t take it.
Itâ€™s as volatile as a bi-polar ex-wife on meth.

New Risks since December Prediction:

The IRS has categorized each Bitcoin transaction as a taxable event.Â Yeouch.Â Nobody keeps those kinds of records, and that is an absolute block for people wanting to use it like youâ€™d use a dollar bill.Â That moves it from a currency to an investment vehicle.Â Use as a currency inherently raises the value of Bitcoin, but this moves it away from that.

My prediction in December:

â€œI think it might have more to fall before it becomes stabilized, maybe to $10,000.Â But I predict it would be higher than $20,000 next December.â€

First Quarter Scorecard:

Howâ€™s that working so far?Â Bitcoin dropped to my $10,000 number and kept right on going until it hit $7,000.Â Recently, itâ€™s been bouncing around my $10,000 prediction for the stabilization number.Â Is $20,000 still possible?Â Sure, but less likely if itâ€™s harder to use as a currency.Â I would change this one if I could (note:Â The Boy has partial Bitcoins I wonâ€™t let him use, due to the taxable thing.Â Irony:Â He paid a bitcoin for some hosting about 5 years ago.Â Yeah.Â $10,000 for internet hosting.)

The Stock Market

New Risks Since December Prediction

Democrats taking the House of Representatives in November â€“ this is a risk because it greatly increases political uncertainty. Again, impeachment this year is nearly zero probability.Â In 2019 with a Democratic House?Â Low, but non-zero.Â Thatâ€™s a huge risk the market has not priced in.Â October will be the most volatile month this year, if the Republicans keep the House.Â If they lose the house â€“ November will be a very difficult month in the Market.Â But if Pelosi keeps talking â€“ the Republicans have nothing to fear.
How much will the Fed increase interest rates (see below)?
Is FacebookÂ® in trouble for data? Facebookâ„¢ might be the spark that melts the market down . . . or not.

2018 Prediction on the S&P 500:

â€œUp.Â Not 24%.Â But up, say, 10%.Â 2019?Â Weâ€™ll see.â€

First Quarter Scorecard:

So far, year to date, itâ€™s up 1.01%.Â Seems in line with my prediction (so far).

Interest Rates:

2018 Prediction on the Federal Reserve Rate:

â€œUp slightly.Â Eventually (2019, 2020?) up a lot.â€

First Quarter Scorecard:

Zero change in the Fed funds rate.Â Mortgage rates have gone up from 3.95% to 4.46%.Â Not a lot, and not even a record number for the last decade.Â Seems in line with my prediction (so far).

Gold/Silver:

2018 Prediction on the Gold/Silver:

First Quarter Scorecard:

Gold is up 1.8% in the quarter.Â Silver is down 3%.Â Itâ€™s wandering (for now), so itâ€™s in line with predictions.

Disclaimer:Â I havenâ€™t started any positions in anything above the last three days and donâ€™t expect to start any in the next three.Â So there.Â Also, Iâ€™m not a financial advisor, and this set of â€œpredictionsâ€ is probably as good as a blank OuijaÂ® Board and probably worse than flipping a coin.