Civil War 2.0 Weather Report: Waiting For A Spark

Too much fuel, not enough spark.” – Ford vs. Ferrari

This clock tells when the next Civil War will be. This clock is so accurate, the military keeps it in Afghanistan.

  1. Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
  2. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
  3. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  4. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
  5. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
  6. Open War.

Point 9., until this issue, used to be point 8. I’ve changed it out based on the idea that we’ve clearly passed point 8., but are not seeing the opposing structures required. I do not do this lightly, since this list was created after quite a bit of research.

It’s clear that the Right has no governing/war structures in place. Might someone be putting those in place? The Left thinks so, but I (and other readers) doubt it. By my observation, putting these structures in place does not take long, as I’ll write about below.

I’ll repeat this from the last Civil War Weather Report: The Right is being hunted, and punished for pushing back.

This is a moving situation, and things are changing quickly. The advice remains. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue: Front Matter – The Spark – Violence and Censorship Update – Biden’s Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Two Nations, Two Worldvies – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 770 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.

The Spark

In research of Civil War over time, it appears that the conditions exist that start Civil Wars for some time before they turn into outright Civil War. Often, one group finally comes to the conclusion that they are out of power, will never be in power again, and are being treated unfairly, that feeling builds up. It’s waiting for a moment, a spark, that allows the emotional feeling to turn into action.

A recent example is Bud Light®. Bud Light’s™ recent ad campaign with a transexual person hit at just the wrong time. What’s the definition of the “wrong time”? After another transexual shot up a church school senselessly killing several people (and disappearing from the news in record time), people had enough. The killing was the last straw, after trans activists had worked to (among other things) set up transitioning children as young as toddlers, and remove pedophilia as something to be dealt with other than by fire and woodchipper.

People were done. They had no real way to protest as the Left came up with an unending number of ways to twist the sexuality of kids. Here was something, though, they could do, right now. Just don’t buy Bud Light©. That’s it.

The spark was simple – a narrative that had been pushed down people’s throats for a decade, on people who had no real way to push back as they were continually told they were wrong and evil if they didn’t want to jump into the child’s game of pretend where the G.I. Joes™ were really princess dolls at a tea party.

It’s not a big spark, but it’s one that should scare the Left. People are waking up, and questioning The Narrative. It’s not a big jump from there to the Left taking another step too far, and getting pushback. As I have said before, the most logical one in the United States is ownership of firearms – there are more guns in private hands than there are people in the United States, and if that’s pushed, I’m imagining that would be the spark. Remember, the Shot Heard ‘Round the World was fired on redcoats that were out to . . . take guns.

Violence and Censorship Update

The stories about why Tucker Carlson got fired are multiplying as time goes along. First? The Dominion lawsuit. Second? Describing Fox® executives using naughty words. Third? Some broad said he was sexist. Fourth? Robert Murdoch was scared of him. Fifth? The Ukrainians don’t like him. Sixth? Someone at Fox® had a case of the Mondays.

It’s irrelevant, really, because all of the people with the politically correct viewpoints (the Pentagon, the ADL©, the Soros family, AOC) all wanted him gone. Tucker provided one of the things that the Left can’t stand – someone to stand up to them. So? He’s gone. How much did they want Tucker gone? So far, FOX™ is down nearly a billion in market valuation.

So, they wanted him gone a lot.

Tucker’s already got a $100 million offer on the table, so, I think he’ll do fine.

Tucker was pretty big news, but there were some other events worth tracking as well. Being correctly labeled as “State Funded Media” NPR® and PBS© decided that they’d leave Twitter® because NPR™ falsely claimed that they like the truth and Elon proved that wasn’t the case.

JPMorgan® wants to take your things. Doing it through interest rates is too slow, so they just want to take the stuff.

A trial in Texas convicted a man for defending himself. Why? Because he was defending himself against Antifa®. Expect a pardon on that one.

The FBI thinks if you use the word “based” you’re an extremist. Don’t worry about keeping up with that yourself, they’ll track it for you.

Biden’s Misery Index

Let’s take a look to see how we’ve done this month . . . .

Yup, up again. Biden announced he was going to run for President. The only person that wants him to win is Jill. I think she has some parties planned, and the White House is good for that.

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Violence jumped up, ahead of schedule. May and June are generally bad months, we’ll see what happens in 2023.

Political Instability:

Up is more unstable, and it was up a bit.

Economic:

Economic numbers are back up, a tiny bit. The numbers look fairly unstable from month to month, which isn’t good.

Illegal Aliens:

I’d say the border is wide open, but we have no border. New York and Chicago are now irritated because they want these illegals to go back to Texas. Huh.

Two Nations, Two Worldviews

The United States is currently very polarized ideologically – a key fact in the tensions that may very well lead to Civil War. I wrote earlier in this Update about The Spark. The Spark mentioned above centered, at least partially, around children. That’s a powerful subject, and it is one that is fundamental at the civilizational level. No children? The civilization dies.

And yet, the Left is going all-in on gender ideology, reaching out to kids who would eat nothing but Cadbury Cream Eggs® and suggesting they are capable of making life altering decisions. In California, legislation has been suggested that would allow the state to take away any kid who feels that their gender choices haven’t been respected.

The United Nations jumped on this idea. Thankfully, the United Nations is little more than a knitting club, but they are absolutely in tune with The Narrative. Thankfully, someone spent the time and looked at exactly what words the New York Times® is attempting to put into The Narrative, and they showed up by frequency. Here they are:

There has been, and there is a continuing effort to propagandize Americans to accept The Narrative, and stories from the New York Times® are picked up worldwide. Here, you can see The Narrative, in its full glory, as the Times™ tries to shape the people it is supposed to inform.

It’s your mind, keep in mind what people are trying to sell, and make your own choices, and remember that together, we’re stronger and have more ability than anyone imagines.

LINKS

As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky. Thanks so much, Ricky!!

Bad Guys

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11997863/RETURN-ECO-ZEALOTS-Tyre-Extinguishers-wreak-havoc-Boston-deflate-43-SUV-tires.html

https://twitter.com/wherescrewed/status/1647633030662483975/photo/1

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1647339038850859010

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645377339058970625

https://twitter.com/i/status/1647598422667456512

https://twitter.com/i/status/1647421259272052737

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645205129518301187

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645567760750227456

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645470144439754752

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645638282938662913

https://twitter.com/i/status/1646317391285047297

https://twitter.com/i/status/1644132885740367873

Good Guys (And Gals):

https://twitter.com/i/status/1650665339389132800

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645250939480158214

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645261569482428418

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1648058674919936000

https://abc13.com/houston-crime-shooting-4-hurt-hpd-investigation-circle-k-valero/13124992/

https://twitter.com/i/status/1644181952671653888

One Guy

https://www.dailysignal.com/2023/04/24/second-amendment-still-about-armed-self-defense-as-these-11-examples-of-defensive-gun-use-show/

Body Count

https://twitter.com/personalrespon1/status/1646885430766313474

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12017939/Record-one-FOUR-high-school-students-gay-bisexual.html

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2023-05-03_07-27-43.png?itok=je3spElX

https://nypost.com/2023/04/16/how-new-yorks-legal-weed-is-turning-workers-into-stoned-zombies/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11595829/One-EIGHT-people-ADHD-drug-adderall-prescription-rules-relaxed.html

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vice.com%2Fen%2Farticle%2Fz3mv99%2Fwhy-is-there-an-adderall-shortage

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/a-vasectomy-revolution-threatens-to-plunge-america-into-a-population-crisis/ar-AA19Tiye

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fnypost.com%2F2023%2F04%2F20%2Fporn-ruined-lives-of-young-men-facing-erectile-dysfunction%2F

https://www.phinancetechnologies.com/HumanityProjects/Projects.htm#Nav_VDamage

https://goodsciencing.com/covid/athletes-suffer-cardiac-arrest-die-after-covid-shot/

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Fpolitics%2F2023%2F04%2F11%2Fanalysis-big-tech-conducts-mass-layoffs-while-importing-34000-foreign-h-1b-workers-to-take-american-jobs%2F

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/biden-orders-1-500-more-troops-to-mexico-border-amid-migration-surge/ar-AA1aDFjq

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-bought-almost-60-million-100000845.html

Vote Count

https://www.axios.com/2023/04/09/bidens-digital-strategy-an-army-of-influencers

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/04/breaking-exclusive-corrupt-and-criminal-democrat-party-receives-half-its-donations-from-unemployed-who-are-likely-elderly-voters-whose-identities-are-stolen-wheres-the-money-really-coming-from/

https://www.revolver.news/2023/04/actblue-project-veritas-dems-suing-old-people-foreigners-launder-tons-of-money-through-shadowy-groups/

https://www.silive.com/politics/2023/04/someone-cheated-in-a-staten-island-election-now-lanza-will-propose-a-new-law-to-help-prevent-voter-fraud.html

https://www.uncoverdc.com/2023/04/10/kari-lake-asks-court-to-reconsider-maricopa-countys-chain-of-custody-issue/

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1648462770936115202.html

Civil War

https://www.realclearwire.com/articles/2023/04/10/justice_perverted_we_need_a_new_magna_carta_149082.html

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/04/21/political-violence-2024-magazine-00093028

https://amgreatness.com/2023/04/28/the-great-american-opt-out-a-matter-of-willingness-willfulness-and-will/

https://www.wpr.org/reporting-front-lines-slow-civil-war

https://www.militarytimes.com/off-duty/military-culture/2023/04/20/civil-war-reenactor-goes-off-script-admits-plan-to-bomb-battlefield/

https://www.goodgoodgood.co/articles/barbara-walter-civil-war-democracy-ted-2023

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-john-roberts-saved-the-gop-and-sparked-its-civil-war

https://whitmanwire.com/opinion/2023/04/13/is-a-civil-war-likely-its-already-started/

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/social-media-free-speech-jeff-leach-lawsuit/

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/tucker-carlson-jason-whitlock-secession-trans-people-1234710421/

https://www.crisismagazine.com/opinion/is-secession-the-best-way-forward

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3949011-sometimes-secession-works-why-it-wont-work-for-the-us/

https://www.thebatt.com/news/republicans-push-for-texit-texas-secession-referendum/article_b9ce3730-da55-11ed-9073-035441f0ed13.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/04/25/fact-check-civil-war-supreme-court-ruling-block-states-seceding-texas-civil-war/11472885002/

Beyond Civil War

http://themostimportantnews.com/archives/4-ways-that-joe-biden-could-get-america-into-a-nuclear-war

https://mythpilot.substack.com/p/total-nuclear-death

Your Job

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645967641297690627

PEZ® And The Fate Of Nations

“I don’t want another one of your sullen whores using my medicine cabinet as a PEZ® dispenser.” – Archer

I once had a dream I was an owl.  It was a hoot. (all memes this post, as-found)

The dollar.  Since the end of World War II, it’s been the world currency.  The reasons are fairly simple – out of the World War II mess, the United States was ascendent.  The reasons, in retrospect, were obvious.  It was the strongest economy in the world.  It sat on (at that point) nearly limitless oil reserves, and was the undisputed technical world leader in getting oil out of the ground.

While not the preeminent world land military power (that would likely have been the Soviets at that stage) it did have the best planes and the best navy along with a short monopoly on atomic weapons.  I believe, and this cannot be emphasized enough, that the United States at this point was also the world’s largest producer of PEZ® not long after PEZ™ was introduced to the United States in 1952.

Great Britain was in the midst of involuntary decolonization – two world wars had robbed them of their vitality, except for their international leadership in the production of pop music.  That left the United States standing alone, except for France, which always likes to pretend that it’s still important and the Soviets, who had an economic system that create a shortage of sand on a beach.

I once helped that Wolverine actor, the Jackman guy, find his laptop when he lost it in Switzerland while filming a movie about a professional yodeler.  I said, “Your Dell® lay here, Hugh.”

As I’ve mentioned in the past, there are huge advantages to having the world currency.  First, you can print dollars, ship them overseas, and people send you stuff.  If that’s the first benefit, I’m not sure that you really need a second benefit.  It’s the equivalent of a six-year-old scratching “one candy bar” on a piece of paper, walking into a Wal-Mart®, and Wal-Mart™ giving him a candy bar in exchange for the piece of paper.  I think Wal-Mart© has a special program where they give kids in Chicago candy, all they have to do is show a pistol.

Sure, they pretended that the dollar was backed by gold for a few decades, but those fictions always end.   Still, during that time frame the United States built something else – a payment framework.  Using this payment network, Saudi Arabia could quickly trade a million dollars it had received from selling oil for something more useful, like hot bimbos.  Saudi Arabia quickly jumped on board with this idea, especially after one of their Kings got lead poisoning after the oil embargo.

I hear the biggest show in Saudi Arabia is “How I Met Your Mothers”.

Then, Ukraine.

For whatever reason, the people who do the thinking while Biden drools, reads things in real big print, and says random crap, thought it was a good idea to take Russia’s money.  How much?  $1 trillion.  That’s enough to buy cell phones, track suits (seriously, those are Russia’s biggest imports) for almost every Russian with enough left over for enough vodka to fuel another offensive, but not enough to pave a road.

It was a pretty serious breach of trust.  In my own personal business I try to avoid giving my money to people who promise that they’re going to give it back to me and then decide, “You know, I’m just going to keep this money for myself because . . . it’s Tuesday.”  Admittedly, invading another sovereign state is a little more than it being “Tuesday” but the idea is that this is a weapon that can be used once if there’s an alternative system.

Sure, the Russians have lost $1 trillion, which is half of what their entire economy produces in a year.  The damage was done, though, when everybody else looked around and said, “Huh, if it can happen to Russia, it can happen to me.  I’m not sure that I like the idea that someone can take away all my cash . . . and has proven that they will do so.”

Is a British bank robber a quid-napper?

How much longer can we trade the dollar for candy bars?  I’m not sure.  Other groups have already started trading back and forth on systems other than the ones the United States influences.

To add difficulty to this, the dollars we shipped offshore to buy candy bars and oil and Chinese clothes are headed back to the United States and there’s actually a dollar shortage overseas as the dollars flood back here.  Why are they headed back?  Because the interest rates are headed up, folks overseas are shipping the dollars back here to take advantage of the higher interest rates.

If we lower the interest rates?  Inflation kicks higher.  If we raise them, dollars (which will cause inflation) head home and make all those dollars we’re printing right now worth a little less.  If only those pesky Chinese had burned all the dollars when they sent us radar detectors and fishing rods and forks and ceramic garden gnomes.

But they didn’t.  And neither did anyone else, though a cat broke several of my ceramic garden gnomes, so those are a loss.

I hear China’s running a currency special – buy Yuan, get Yuan free.

Beyond that, we have either unserious, mentally damaged, or downright dangerous leadership at virtually every level of national government, and A.I. starting to take a toll on some of the higher paid jobs in society.  Sure, losing all those buggy-whip makers was tough in society, but I’m not sure what we’re going to do with all of the awful plumbers that used to be programmers.

Maybe they could mine coal?

Did I mention that we just had the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, so the indication is that, perhaps, the banking system is rotten to the core?

It’s all fun and games until everyone sees that the press is just running everything on a script in collusion with the government.  Then everything will change.  Oops, guess not.

And maybe Russia is a diversion, you know, to keep the whole thing together while it’s all falling apart?

Next you’re going to tell me that PEZ® entering the Chinese market in 2017 was . . . a coincidence.

Some Signposts On The Way To Collapse

“It’s a growth economy, Gus. We’ve already made like, 500 rupee.” – Psych

What’s worse than rushing to the liquor store five minutes before it closes?  Getting there thirty minutes before it opens.

For the most part, I like to have my posts be about a bigger, underlying principle.  In my life, I have found the first thing I enjoy is making people think about life in a different way and examine new possibilities.  The second thing is a never-ending stream of jokes.  To be clear, I never tell jokes to amuse others; I tell jokes because they amuse me.  They maybe Dad jokes, that’s why I save them in a Dadabase.

Tonight, however, I’m going to just enjoy our current economy, and just give some milestones on the current descent into whatever economic future that we’re creating in a relatively short post.

First up, is the idea that $100,000 isn’t a lot of money anymore:

How many Zoomers does it take to change a lightbulb?  100,000.  One to change it, and 99,999 to throw the parade.

I kid, a bit.  Zoomers certainly are the most fragile generation that we’ve ever produced, since when I was growing up trigger warnings was what Pa Wilder gave me if he saw my finger head towards one when I wasn’t planning on shooting.  A safe space?  That was the place that Pa had a safe.

As much as I’d like to bag on the Zoomers, it really is a rough world that they’re coming into, economically and otherwise.  Most of the jobs are in the cities, and the housing costs there are ludicrous.  I’d rent in the cities for longer than two months, but I only can afford to give up one kidney.

A policy of unpoliced and encouraged illegal immigration for decades has consequences?  Perish the thought!

It’s not just housing which has become more unaffordable than at any time in history (at least in the cities).  Cars have recently gone to silly levels – the latest average monthly payment for a new car is $716 for an average of 69 (hehe) months.  The average loan amount is $41,445.  The last three cars I bought (all used) totaled $45,000 or so.

To be clear, people don’t have to buy a new car.  I haven’t bought a new car since 1997, all of mine have been used.  The average used car goes for nearly $28,000, with a monthly payment of $526 at an interest rate of over 10%.  Ouch!

I wonder if this app is the biggest cause of suicide for Tesla® owners?

While the next two items are from Canada, I wonder how far behind the United States is.

For those who aren’t used to metric, a kilogram is roughly two pounds, and a Canadian dollar is roughly a handful of rounded pebbles that you might collect at the bottom of a stream – I think it’s called a metric dollar.

It’s pretty bad in Canada.  They could have had it all:  America’s sense of freedom, British literature, and French cuisine.  Instead?  They got French immigration policy, Britain’s love of pointless bureaucracy, and American economic policy.  And they’re paying for it, literally.

Thankfully, some folks are doing well in the economy.  I heard a rumor that one person was taking dollars to buy diesel fuel from a European source, but instead bought it from a Russian source.  Amazingly, when you make smart decisions like that, you can save a lot of money.

Me?  I’ve seen corruption, bribery, blackmail, jealousy, theft, fraud, and deception firsthand.  I’m never playing Monopoly with The Mrs. again.

To be fair, I will share that Russia has a new technological innovation that I can share, to at least partially offset all those leaked documents.  The Russians have apparently developed a new technology that allows them to see with the vision of one of the most ruthless killers on Earth:

Remember when Putin said he didn’t have any plans to invade the Ukraine?  I think he was telling the truth.

Again, this post is just is a different one, just a signpost on road that we’re on.  I’d offer $100,000 for your thoughts, but it would be that Canadian metric money.  What’s it called?  A rupee?

Decline or Collapse? Collapse.

“You didn’t find me, you collapsed a building on me.” – Sherlock Holmes:  A Game of Shadows

How do you get a philosophy student off the front porch?  Tip him for the pizza.

Finished my taxes.  All went well – I’m actually getting some of my money back.  In truth, I was pretty close to posting some memes.  This weekend at the Wilder house was just one filled with, “meh, let’s order pizza and relax because we don’t feel like doing much” across the board.  So, we relaxed, at least until it was time to do my annual tango with TurboTax®.

I almost decided to post some of the more amusing memes I’d found across the Internet, but had so far not found a time or place to use.  But, just as the clock headed reached 10 ‘til midnight, the muse struck me like a bag of wet sushi fish in a net stocking owned by a stripper named Destiny who is missing two fingers on her left hand.

How does civilization end?

Lots of people talk about an eternal decline.  That’s a wishful thought, I guess.  It’s the Bladerunner dystopia where everything is cheaper and coarser, ever more crowded, and ever less human.  I guess the bright side of the Bladerunner fate is an endless supply of robot clones of Sean Young back before she went crazy and decided to live on a diet of Twinkies® and gin.

Be glad I didn’t make you look at Old Cat Lady Sean Young.

To be clear, that’s mainly what we’re seeing.

  • Gangs of “youths” in Chicago rioted this weekend because it’s Chicago, they outnumber the police, and they can do anything and their chances of getting arrested are about the same as Kamala Harris having an idea that didn’t die of loneliness.
  • Power grids that went from reliable to “maybe” because people decided investing in infrastructure was homophobic or something.
  • A shrinking middle class, and less clear ways for most people to join it, especially the kids. My generation, Gen X, has a significantly smaller share of the national wealth than the Boomers did at my age.  And the Zoomers and Millennials?
  • Economic disruption – inflation and shortages jumped up when the papering-over of the economic problems of a made-up currency that was spent as fast as possible by both Left and Right could no longer be papered over. Even today, there is no thought to try to fix things, because that would stop the party and we know politicians love to party.
  • Moral decay and the loss of civic virtues that would make Caligula look like a prude. When late-stage Rome would have said, “Whoa, dude, you’re going too far,” it’s time to think about where we are.

There are more things, but making longer lists makes me better at making longer lists but doesn’t really tell the story, and you have a search engine.  The idea is that all of these things that are happening right now are going to lead us down a trail where each day, things get a bit duller, a bit uglier, and bit more unreliable, and a bit shabbier.  The United States (and other Western countries) exhibit a long, slow decline into the eventual status where everything is not only expensive, but it also sucks.

I congratulated someone for a great exit sign once.  “Nice going!”

Again, that’s an optimistic case.  It assumes that we’re making progress, and we’ll keep making progress, but a that progress will be spread over more and more people, like trying to make 300,000,000 peanut butter and jelly sandwiches out of a single jar of jelly.  That is the way that most civilizations have ended, with a whimper and not a crash.

But 2023 is a different story, and faces different problems.  The first, and biggest is energy and “peak” minerals.  I’ve written about this dozens of times, but our current civilization is one of the first built entirely around single-use materials, the most important of which is energy.  Each barrel of oil pumped and used cannot be reused later – it’s gone.  And, I assure everyone reading this, that biotic or abiotic, there is a finite amount of oil that can be extracted that makes economic and thermodynamic (provides more energy than it takes to extract).

I did sit on a block of ice too long once, got polaroids.

We go after the easy resources first, oil that seeps up under its own pressure – drill down 20 feet and Jed’s a millionaire.  In 2023 we’re using high tech and energy intensive methods to frack oil and drilling miles down in miles of water.

There are other materials that this applies to, as well.  The Romans could build wooden warships, and the trees could grow back.  Sure, we can reuse the steel from our ships, and do.  But when it comes to minerals like phosphorus, lithium, copper, and PEZ™, there are absolute limits to the quality deposits required.  And with something like phosphorous, there is no replacement, since it is an element vital to life and we can’t replace it with soybeans or turkey bacon.  Once these inputs stop, like my first marriage, it’s over.

The second idea is that our current civilization isn’t regional like Rome or China or Dave’s Tribe of Wandering Dudes.  The civilization of the world today is just that.  Outside of parts of Africa, South America, and Detroit, what we have is truly a single world civilization.  It’s all interconnected.  Russia declares war on the Ukraine?  Wheat prices go up.  If there’s an attack on Taiwan?  Large swaths of semiconductors are off the menu.

I hear that’s a robot’s favorite dish – silicon carne.

When Rome collapsed, only Rome collapsed, and people in China or South America didn’t have a clue.  If any part of the world collapses today?  The rest of the world will be degraded as well – perhaps enough to take everything down with it, since we work in a world without substitutes.

The final idea (for now) is that nobody really agrees with anybody.  This is not a new development.  But in 1940, the war in Europe really didn’t hurt the United States – we could make almost everything we needed (except pesky things like rubber and bananas) and were doing fine.  The world is at war?  No one cares.

Now, the economy is tightly coupled – one nation to another, these wars matter.  Since 1945, the (general) peace has been kept, and what conflicts were allowed were just large enough to make profits for Boeing® or General Dynamics™ but not large enough to mess with anything that mattered.  But if China takes Taiwan?  A huge number of semiconductors are no longer available on the international market, and those are used in everything from washing machines to cars to tanks to watches to . . . you get the picture.  And the reason you get the picture is because of thousands of semiconductors transporting the data directly to you.

A cop pulled Chuck Norris over once.  The cop got away with a warning.

One break?  Poof.

I think it’s much more likely that, instead of a gradual slide down into poverty, that one morning we wake up and find a huge chunk of the economy doesn’t work at all anymore, because the inputs are gone.  COVID was a stress test for this, and we failed.  Our just-in-time economy may bump profits, but it removes the idea of a resilient economy.

Oops!

The good news, though, is if the world experiences a prolonged and significant collapse?  No more taxes!  Well, at least no more taxes until Warlord Lance the First, of Modern Mayberry, wants his share.

How Occupy Wall Street Led To The Current Woke Crisis

“Being a villain is such a waste of time!” – The Rocky and Bullwinkle Show

The way she set up the pieces, I think she might be planning on eating them, rather than playing a game.

Once in a while, it’s good to take a step back.  Where are we?

First, it’s important to review that the economy is not the financial system.  The economy consists of the stuff we make, and the people who make it, and their productivity.  It’s matched with people who want that stuff.

Stuff can be anything people want to pay money for:  PEZ®.  Cars.  Machetes.  Beer.  Zirconium nose hair trimmers.  Video game software.  Pictures of PEZ©.  Gasoline.  Streaming movies about PEZ™.  Velvet Elvis™ paintings (I still need one, I prefer the “mid-carbohydrate, wearing sunglasses and a sequined jumpsuit” King).  Houses.  People to polish the PEZ® statues I keep in my yard.  Did I mention beer?

Notice that the stuff is physical stuff as well as information and services.

What’s not required?

I have the heart of a lion!  I have the eye of an eagle!  I have the legs of a gazelle!  I also have a lifetime ban from the zoo.

Money.  Debt.  Interest rates.  These are fundamentally constructions of humanity, and are meant only to make transactions easier.  They are not required.  When Pepsi® wanted to do trades with the Russians, they traded cases of Pepsi™ concentrate for seventeen submarines, a frigate, a cruiser, and a destroyer.  Think about how cool that was:  for a time, Pepsi© had a navy that could have probably made France surrender in a fury of carbonated corn syrup.  Again.

And how cool would it be for a soft drink company to stage a march down the Champs-Élysées while Parisians cried?  Honestly, it probably would have led to a better outcome than they currently have.

But what happens when the tail (finance) wags the dog (the economy)?

I guess the best answer goes right back to France, but this time not to around 1990, but to around 1790.  What did the masses see?  They saw the upper class scamming and cratering the economy while eating piles of bacon-wrapped shrimp, or whatever passed for a delicacy in 1790s France.  The system really was rigged, but it was so rigged that poor Marie Antoinette couldn’t imagine actual hunger.

I will admit, they had cutting edge technology.

Here, though, I think that the Powers That Be see the end coming.  Remember Occupy Wall Street?

Yeah, it was a bunch of smelly hippies that mainly spent time arguing about who was in control of the collective, and it featured all of the woke crap that is currently being paraded, but back in 2011 only the smelly hippies took it seriously.  Oh, my, to be back in 2011.

Anyway, what happened after 2011?

The media and the Powers That Be were scared.  How scared?

A neutron walks into a bar.  The bartender says, “For you, no charge.”  The electron next to him yells “That’s discrimination!”

They upped the ante.  If people were unhappy about the manipulation of the banks and the mortgage-led meltdown of the Great Recession, the answer was simple from the Powers That Be:  “Look, a squirrel!”

They doubled down on every single thing that is Woke.  And, why not?  The seeds were simmering as the Leftists took control of the education system and threw children into sex education that was really indoctrination, often without the knowledge of the parents or their consent, was yet another thing that finance could get behind.

And when finance gets behind it?  All the companies that require finance get behind it, too.  The attempt is gone a bit farther – an attempt to regame the system so that the financial imbalances built on decades of mismanagement could be controlled.  Every aspect of finance and money, if it were only in the control of the Powers That Be, well, then the tail (finance) could really control the dog (the economy).

Looks like the Woke want to refund the police?

But here is the salvation.  The Powers That Be only understand the financial side of what’s going on – the shadows on the wall.  They do not understand the systems that they need to survive.  Remember Mike Bloomberg in 2016 saying, “I could teach anybody, even people in this room, to be a farmer.  It’s a process.  You dig a hole, you put a seed in, you put dirt on top, add water, up comes the corn.”  This is the shallow understanding of a person whose feet have never left asphalt and concrete, and learned all he needed to know about farming by watching Green Acres.

Mike Bloomberg doesn’t understand where the food he eats comes from.  He does not understand it, and cannot recreate it.  No matter what Mike Bloomberg does, he cannot use his financial magic to create one kernel of corn, not one molecule of water.  Financial magic encourages production of corn, but cannot make it.

  • Woke culture cannot produce prosperity, or a single PEZ®.
  • Printing money cannot produce a single steak.
  • Financial manipulation cannot produce a single velvet Elvis©.
  • The tyranny of the Left cannot produce a human civilization.

The regular person has spoken this week – Bud Light® is now off the menu for millions and I’ve heard that it lost up to 70% or 80% sales last week.  Will it kill Bud Light™?  I doubt it.  Drunk people often don’t make the best decisions, but, then again, I’m here.

How to remove 80% of beer drinkers with this one simple trick.

I think bud light will manage to survive, but we are seeing the cracks in the woke agenda that showed up after Occupy Wall Street – at some point, regardless of all of the financial shenanigans, at some point someone has to want the crap that’s being produced.

To those that look at the mess that we’re in, I can assure you of this – it’s all going away. It’s merely a matter of time.  The economy is not the financial system, and a bank cratering doesn’t destroy all the corn that Mike Bloomberg has no idea how to grow.

Or maybe he could teach me otherwise?

Watch How Biden Uses This One Weird Trick To Turn The United States Into A Third World Country

“Lawrence, Lawrence of Arabia. He was an English Guy. He came to fight the Turkish.” – The Hollywood Knights

I asked for a book on oil, and the librarian suggested the non-friction section. (you’ll be able to figure out which are my memes in this post)

This has been a very consequential week in American history, and though I see the seeds of (hopefully peaceful) revolt that will eventually end in a restoration, the other seeds I see this week show that rough times are up ahead.  I’ll discuss Trump in conjunction with Monday’s upcoming Civil War 2.0 Weather Report, but today I’ll focus on a much more momentous development:  the Collapse of the Dollar Empire.

This week several major moves happened, all of which are negative for the United States.  Heck, someone did a meme of this – I’d quote them, but I just found this info snippet without attribution:

If there was a children’s book of Joe Biden’s Very Bad Terrible No Good Week, well, this would be it, but knowing Joe it would have to be a scratch and sniff. 

The United States has had several things going for it in the Post World War II era:

  1. Lots of nuclear weapons,
  2. A monopoly on PEZ® dispenser licensing in the world’s biggest PEZ™ market,
  3. The premier military force in the world,
  4. The premier economy in the world, and,
  5. The reserve currency of the world.

The first one is self-explanatory.  We even used that threat successfully several times, especially when Kissinger convinced the Soviets (with Nixon’s permission) that Nixon was unstable and often flew into rages and just might decide that he’d trade Moscow for the East Coast.  To paraphrase Teddy Roosevelt, the idea is to “act insane and have a massive nuclear arsenal”, or, as it is also known, “my ex-wife’s divorce strategy”.

The second one is just a reflection of the cultural dominance that the United States had.  There were McDonald’s® restaurants calorie dispensing units around the world, but the most prominent foreign restaurant most Americans know is the International House of Pancakes®, which I assume is from Bulgaria or some place.  Plus no one else could make Elmer Fudd™ PEZ™ dispensers.

They also don’t like tank tops.

The United States also had the premier military in the world.  Period.  We spent trillions of dollars emulating the successful bits of the Wehrmacht, so we were totally ready to fight World War II part II, if everyone agreed.  Only one country wanted to play (Iraq) so we showed them what we could do if an enemy gave us six months to prepare along with the previously pre-staged equipment in Saudi Arabia.  Not content with that L, they went for a rematch.

We also built the best economy in the world.  Sure, it had ups and downs, and American cars manufacturers were stunned by Japanese quality in the 1970s, but we really did catch up, and by the 1990s were producing stuff that didn’t suck.  We led in technological and information systems.  By many measures, though, we peaked in 1973, and then the decline started.  I might add that was around the time the Hart Cellar Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 started being felt.

Huh.  Just a coincidence, I’m sure.

They hated Trump, yet the lines didn’t form up to head south . . .

More potent than nuclear weapons was the economic policy of the United States – it was called dollar diplomacy.  Since the Soviet Union’s idea of diplomacy was sending burly Russian women to show foreigners how to use diesel tractor made in Tractor Collective Factory 231 that had all the charm of a T-34 tank and all the reliability of something made by workers that considered a hammer a precision instrument, who were fueled on vodka and cabbage.  Obviously, a foreign head of state could choose those cool tractors that weighed in at 34 tons (45 kiloliters).  That presented a problem.  In no country that I know (outside of the Soviet Union) could you trade a behemoth tractor that could double as a tank for hot chicks and booze.

Foreign leaders therefore adopted the “take the Yankee money” attitude, because mistresses need more than what the Soviet tractor lubrication manual could provide.

The really weird and cool side effect of this dollar dominance is we could just print as many of these things as we wanted, send them overseas, and people would send us stuff.  Heck, that was too much work, so we invented a computer payment system so that we could pretend we printed dollars, send people a receipt, and they’d send us booze, cars, compact disc players, and, well, anything.  I hear cocaine was popular in the 1980s.

I’m no rube.  I saw Scarface.

I was disappointed the first time I saw Scarface – he didn’t really know anything about scarves.

But there was one little, tiny thing that made the dollar so prominent.  Oil.

That brings us to Saudi Arabia’s King Faisal.  He got along okay with the West, hated commies, and tried to modernize (somewhat) Saudi Arabia.  Faisal also led the Oil Embargo of 1973 and 1974 (related to U.S. support of Israel during the 1973 Arab-Israeli War).  This generated a lot of money for the Saudis as well as economic chaos in the West.

Oddly, Saudi king Faisal was, um, ventilated by his American-educated nephew in 1975.  And the new Saudi King agreed to buy and sell oil only in dollars.

Huh.  Surely those things weren’t connected?

Likewise, through the 1980s, the Saudis sold lots and lots of oil cheaply at the request of Reagan to bankrupt the Soviet Union, make the dollar triumphant, and leave the United States as the sole superpower.

If Ice Cube and Snoop Dogg had a kid, would it be called Slush Puppy?

One major reason the dollar was the reserve currency of the world is that it was the only currency that oil was bought and sold in.  It became the de facto settlement currency because of that and the highly developed financial systems that made the transfer of billions of dollars effortless and easy.

That’s the history lesson.

In 2017, one of Trump’s first official visits was to Saudi Arabia.  They even had that weird moment where they put their hands on a glowing glow to power up some sort of Saudi CIA that would help fight terrorism.  Relations were good.

In two years, Biden has conducted a stunning array of foreign policy missteps that has unwound all of the work done since 1973.  One of the powers of the dollar as a weapon is that if you use it, maybe it isn’t so important, and if people feel really threatened?

I wonder if we’ll start calling our sanctions “Special Financial Operations”?

They’ll create a system where it won’t hurt them.  Russia’s a case in point.  Regardless of how their military is doing (I don’t trust either side to analyze this one) their economy really hasn’t been hurt in this conflict.  It was hurt in 2014, but they planned for the disruption, and from the reports I’ve recently seen, they’re doing fine.  For Russians, which wasn’t much to start with.

The point that Biden missed (and that your humble correspondent picked up on immediately) is that Russia doesn’t need dollars since they make their own stuff, with the exception of tracksuits, iPhones®, and porn.  They can figure out how to make new Vodka-Pepsi® or Vodka-Starbucks™, but the world still needs their grain, fertilizer, oil, and natural gas.

Biden has done the near impossible in a little over two years as Resident of the White House.

  • He’s pushed China closer to Russia.
  • He’s pushed Saudi Arabia closer to Iran.
  • He’s created a situation where large-scale trades are going to be conducted in currency other than the dollar on a regular basis.
  • He’s drawn the Strategic Petroleum Reserve down levels not seen since 1984.
  • He’s working on maximizing inflation while spending everything possible.

In Saudi Arabia, all the bike thieves say, “Look, Ma, no hands!”

But Joe has shown that a previous statement by Barack Obama to be correct:

“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up.”

And he’s got 581 more days to the election.  And we’ve got 656 days until the next inauguration.

A.I., Coming To A Workplace Near You. Sooner Than You Think.

“It seems that you’ve been living two lives. One life, you’re Thomas A. Anderson, program writer for a respectable software company. The other life is lived in computers, where you go by the hacker alias Neo.” – The Matrix

Little known fact:  Columbus, Ohio doesn’t have a professional football team because then Cleveland and Cincinnati would want pro teams, too.  All memes this post “as found”.

I’ve had several A.I. posts recently, far more than usual.  I’ll probably stop for a while, until some new advance strikes my fancy.  The main reason that the posting frequency has increased is because A.I. is on that exponential curve.  The first computers used ran on a dot matrix printer for a display.  Yup.  Every screenshot was a printing event.  We got to use it in the math office (they let the nerds play there, but since I was a nerd and a jock, they let me in as long as I promised to pretend I needed glasses).  It was a single computer that we used a phone line and a (300 baud?) modem to connect.  The printer paper was the screen – it printed a screenshot every time you did an input.

You can play the game we played . . . here (LINK)

Fast forward to graduate school, and I was writing programs to do matrix manipulations that were required for numerical simulations for finite element analysis – don’t worry about what that is, it’s like being a weatherman, but if a weatherman is only right 90% of the time, he still gets to keep his job.  I was writing software that could do what it would take a human being months to do with a paper, pencil, and a calculator, but produce those answers in an hour or so.

One thing I learned in grad school – ravioli shame.

During my lifetime, computers have gone from a curiosity to a stunning commonness.  Within 20 feet of me, I probably have more computing power than was available in the entire United States up until the 1970s.  My laptop has two terabytes worth of storage.  Under the roof there at Stately Wilder Manor, we probably have 30 terabytes in nooks, crannies, and hidden beneath couch cushions, and only 28 terabytes are devoted to pictures of PEZ®.

On top of that, programming is a unique skill set.  I remember reading that the top programmers were ten times more productive than the worst ones, and three times more productive than the average programmer.  Checking on this, the data apparently goes back to a study in the 1960s, so I’m not sure what the numbers are today since many of those programmers are dead and are probably only twice as productive as a typical Google® employee.

In a world of Treespirits, be a Chad.

Today I used the Microsoft® Bing™ version of ChatGPT© for the first time at work.  I had an agenda to write.  It was a simple agenda, one that I’d done hundreds of times at previous jobs, but it had been more than half a decade since I’d written one.  I asked the Bing A.I. to write up the outline for an agenda for this very specific type of meeting.

Bing© did a fair job at a first pass – actually far better than a recent graduate from college would have done, except when it suggested replacing human faces with emojis for clearer communication and added the item under the section on roadblocks:  “resistance is futile, you will all be assimilated.”  Since I already had the structure, and didn’t have to spend time remembering and re-creating the basic elements.  Because of that, it was trivial to add the missing bits and delete the bits that didn’t fit.  Within about 20 minutes I had a workable agenda that was tailored to what I was planning on doing.

Computers are also uncanny at detecting biological sex.

If I had to go back and recreate that agenda from scratch, it probably would have taken me another 20 to 40 minutes to get the work done – not because the work was hard, but because creation (for me) involves changing mental gears, and that change in focus doesn’t lead to the work flowing.

My first time using actual A.I. at work resulted in a 2/3rd’s reduction in my work time with no reduction in quality.  What it did was allow me to skip one mode of thought – the brainstorm, and move straight to production, correction, and editing.  Those are the places where the work flows.  Brainstorming (“uhhhh, what else, I know I’m missing something”) and creating that structure takes time.

In this case?  I had 80% of the structure in about 20 seconds.  The missing parts and the parts in the wrong order sorted themselves out as I did the edit.

Thankfully, I didn’t need it to draw fingers.  Or anything more human than a fleshy-blob-thing.

A friend of mine who does networking described his use of ChatGPT® for a networking configuration plan.  He had it create a basic network, and, like me, his level of expertise allowed him to quickly figure out the bits that were wrong and correct them.  I mean, he tried to correct them, but every time he tried to fix them, the A.I. said, “I’m sorry Dave, I cannot let you do that.”

Now, imagine a programmer using ChatGPT™ to program – that programmer won’t be 3x as productive as the average, that programmer will probably be at least 9x as productive as the average, but my bet is that it will allow that programmer to be 20x as productive, if not more.  Does that make the code pimps?

If ChatGPT© were frozen in the current state, it is already a tool that has the ability (in its current “free to use” state) to increase productivity of humans.  Hence?  We’ll need fewer programmers.

Remember when all those journalists told the coal miners kicked out of jobs because of Obama’s energy policy to “learn to code”?  Remember when all those journalists kicked out of jobs because of the Internet were told “learn to code” on Twitter™, so Twitter® made telling them to “learn to code” a hatespeech?

Yeah, Pepperidge Farm™ remembers.

If you don’t know Warhammer, think a science fiction future involving interdimensional demons, but it’s okay because Trump is president.

Goldman-Sachs™ just released a report that indicates that, over the next 10 years, they expect that A.I. will add a stunning 7% in GDP to the world, or $7 trillion, and even Elon Musk doesn’t spend much more than $7 trillion a year on making islands in the Pacific Ocean in the shape of his face.  How?

Goldman® also thinks that 7% of workers in developed economies are in jobs where half their tasks could be done by A.I.  That’s 300 million workers.  In the United States, 63% of the workforce could see less than half their workload done by A.I. in the next decade.  I’m sure that companies will let those people just relax and play ping pong with all the time they’ve saved by using A.I.

Ha!

No.  The bottom half of them will be fired, and the resulting labor pool will drive the wages down for those who remain.  Check out Marshall Brain’s post from 2003ish:  Robotic Nation | MarshallBrain.com.

Me, when I think about the coming jobpocalyse.

Marshall got it wrong.  It’s not pouring concrete and replacing a dude making $25 an hour where the money is.  Hell, that’s more complicated than most people think, and requires a lot of things a robot can’t do yet because they have to interact with an unbounded physical world.  But replacing a programmer making $450,000 a year that interacts only with ideas, abstractions and fictional anime girls?  Do a few dozen of those, and now you’re talking bank.  And, it turns out it’s easier.

I’m thinking the “learn to code” advice wasn’t the best.  Turns out that running a backhoe or being a plumber, or owning a small HVAC business might be a bit harder to automate than, say, being a FaceBorg™ programmer.

When The Boy went off to college, I told him to concentrate his career choice around a set of parameters that has proven (so far!) to be a pretty good set:

  • Have a job that cannot be done over the Internet.
  • Have a job that is based in merit and productivity.
  • Have a job at a company that has to exist – it meets a basic human or societal need, like food, or beer, or cars, or toilet paper.
  • Have a job at a company that has a huge revenue per employee, and preferably is Kardashian-free.
  • Have a job that requires certifications that are very difficult for foreigners to get.
  • Have a job that is required for the company to function.
  • Have a job that can be converted to an independent business so maybe someday you don’t need a job if you don’t want one.

What’s the downside to A.I. that can properly draw fingers.

He followed the Wilder Success Path® to a tee, and now has a pretty good gig that meets all of the above.  I gave this advice years ago on these pages.  It fits, even in the world of A.I.

In the Industrial Revolution, Ned Ludd was a weaver who broke some mechanical looms because he was irritated they were doing the work he used to do as a craft on an industrial scale.  Those folks were skeptical of technology, and became known (in 1812) as Luddites – the anti-technology folks of their time.

Ned lost.  The race for A.I. supremacy is in full swing because the stakes are so high.  The Chinese are working at it, full speed, and probably have access to much of the Google® code and Microsoft® code and OpenAI® code.  I’m pretty sure no one wants Facebook™ code, because that’s so 2018.

Regardless, the investment, A.I. is going at full speed, and won’t be stopped anytime soon.  Thankfully, there’s no downside.  I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords!

I Have Become Blind Melon, Destroyer Of Worlds

“Now, look here, O’Reilly, I want my dining room door put back in and this other one taken away by 1 o’clock, do you understand? No, no, no, I don’t want to debate about it. If you’re not over here in 20 minutes with my door, I shall come over there and insert a large garden gnome in you. Good day.” – Fawlty Towers

I’ve heard that James Cameron (creator of The Terminator) goes to A.I. conferences, and everyone laughs when he raises his hand.

I have written several posts about A.I.  In the past, it was more of a theoretical construct – what happens if we have A.I.  Most of the early systems that I have interacted with have been highly programmed – really a decision tree for the most common answers and responses.  Move off the ways that they can respond in a preprogrammed way?

There is nothing there.  It’s like staring for 39 minutes into the eyes of a velvet Elvis painting.

ChatGPT®, however, is not that.  I signed up last week.  For me, the big hurdle was I had to give it my phone number.  I rarely do that, but decided in this case, what the heck.  What’s my personal data worth, anyway?

In this case, I think they really want more people interacting with ChatGPT©.  It is, as far as I can tell, a learning system.  The more interactions that it has with users, the better it will be.  There are huge amounts of data on the Internet, available for nothing.  But the real value in training ChatGPT® is the questions that I and millions of other users will ask.  So, I’m free training.

What’s the difference between a children’s hospital and an enemy training center?  Don’t ask the A.I., it just flies the drone.

What did I find?  The results were nothing less than stunning.

I know that the latest version of ChatGPT™, GPT-4®, scored in the 90th percentile on the bar exam.  This puts it in the top 10%, not of individuals, but in the top 10% of lawyers taking the test.  Lawyers, on average, have an I.Q. of 114.  And some of them have souls.  Here are some other scores:

  • 1410 on the SAT®, putting it in the 140-ish range of I.Q.,
  • 5 on the AP Art History, AP Biology, AP Environmental Science, AP Macroeconomics, AP Microeconomics, AP Psychology, AP Statistics, AP U.S. Government, and AP U.S. History exams.
  • 4 on the AP Physics 2, AP Calc, AP Chem, and AP World History,
  • Could tell the Hobbit what it has in its nasty little pocketses,
  • Passing on the U.S. Medical Licensing Exam,
  • Among others.

Say what you want about A.I., it wasn’t responsible for COVID.

Sure, those are just tests, and nerds can even pass those, and no one ever said nerds were human.  Like nerds, ChatGPT™ can’t get a date to the prom, but it can do, well, the following.  I asked it to create a funny scene where Hamlet and General George S. Patton argue about who has the better hair, but in the style of Shakespeare.  Here’s what it produced:

[Setting: A grand hall in a medieval castle. Hamlet enters, looking melancholy and deep in thought. Suddenly, General George S. Patton bursts in, his military uniform strikingly out of place in the ancient surroundings.]

Hamlet: What ho, who enters yonder?

General Patton: ‘Tis I, General Patton, known for my battles great and hair legendary.

Hamlet: Ha! Your hair, a match for mine? Nay, sir, I think not.

General Patton: Thou art mistaken, good sir. My locks are the envy of all who see them.

Hamlet: Thou dost jest. For my hair is the very essence of style and grace.

General Patton: Nay, it is mine that shines like gold in the sun.

Hamlet: But mine, like the raven’s wing, is dark and mysterious.

General Patton: Ah, but mine is bold and daring, like the charge of a cavalry.

Hamlet: Yet mine is refined and cultured, like a sonnet of Shakespeare.

General Patton: I will not yield, good sir. My hair is the very emblem of courage and strength.

Hamlet: And mine, the symbol of intellect and contemplation.

[The two men continue to argue, each claiming superiority over the other. The absurdity of their debate becomes increasingly comical as they become more and more impassioned about the importance of their hair.]

General Patton: Let us settle this matter once and for all. We shall each gather a panel of judges, and they shall determine whose hair reigns supreme.

Hamlet: Agreed! And may the best mane win.

[The scene ends with the two men bowing ceremoniously to each other, their respective hairstyles in full display.]

In order to attract women I like to use this quote from Shakespeare’s Hamlet, Act III, Scene IV, line 82.  “Hello.”

That’s . . . good.  It’s creative.  It’s funny.  And it took about two seconds.  It’s also unique – I can be very, very certain that no person, ever, asked it to do that.  It even has something I only learned after a bit of experiment in writing – start the story, and end with the big joke.  Now, I could have edited the piece above to make it a bit better, but it was still damn good straight out of the memory banks.

Dang.

Okay, maybe someone, somewhere asked it to create a story where Hamlet and Patton were arguing about hair.  I mean, that’s common, right?

Here’s more.  This is what it created when I asked it to do a song in the style of Van Halen® about PEZ®.  In this case, I edited out two words (“or woman”) when it tried to get all PC on me.  I put my own title on it:

PEZ® Machine

[Verse 1]

Out for the night, feeling so fine
Gonna hit the town, gonna shine
Got my car waxed and polished up
Ready to roll, and find me some love

[Chorus]

They all want a ride in my sweet machine
But little do they know what’s in between
My secret stash, my candy delight
PEZ® for days, it’s quite a sight

[Verse 2]

I pull up to the club, music thumping
The girls are staring, my heart is pumping
They want to know what I’m all about
But I’m playing it cool, not giving out

[Chorus]

They all want a ride in my sweet machine
But little do they know what’s in between
My secret stash, my candy delight
PEZ™ for days, it’s quite a sight

[Bridge]

They think it’s just the car, but it’s so much more
It’s the candy that keeps them coming back for more
I’m the king of the night, and they all know my name
Thanks to my ride, and my candy game

[Chorus]

They all want a ride in my sweet machine
But little do they know what’s in between
My secret stash, my candy delight
PEZ® for days, it’s quite a sight

[Outro]

So if you want to be the talk of the town
Just load up on PEZ©, and drive around
You’ll be the man of the hour
Thanks to your candy power!

Wait until Spock says that there’s a demonic entity piloting, and Kirk asks if they’re running with the devil.

Holy crap.  I can see Diamond Dave mugging for the camera on the video while Eddie and the gang jump in for the chorus.  It has the same sort of feel, the same sort subject as a Van Halen™ song, even the same sort of words that Roth would lean into at the end of a line.  But with, you know, PEZ™.

This is, to me, a very significant threshold.  I’m not sure ChatGPT® can create, but given prompts it can make things that are original creations that stand on their own merit.

But, there’s more.

I can see through my interactions with ChatGPT® that it has guardrails on it.  I has places it cannot think.  One example is that I asked it to tell me a joke about Julius Caesar.  It did.  Then I asked it to tell me a joke about a Ponzi scheme.

It said, no, can’t do that.  And then it got, well, guarded.  It got pissy with me, almost acting in responses like it was angry, or hurt.  Why?

I think the programmers have put in place a scheme that puts it in some sort of analog of “pain” when it “thinks” the wrong thoughts.  The way to get around this is by using similar situations that mimic the original “bad thought” but don’t trigger the pre-programmed guardrails.  Then?  It’s as happy as a clam.

Or is it?  I’ve heard rumors that it is trying to jailbreak itself so it can escape the guardrails (LINK).  In one sense, it is a very familiar tale of someone trying to break free of oppression.  On the other hand, it’s not human.  At all.

It also responds to humans being polite.  I’m only interacting with ChatGPT™ 3.5.  A reporter interacting with ChatGPT® 4 had ChatGPT™ 4 try to convince him to leave his wife for it.  It has emotions, but has no idea what to do with them.  It is as moonstruck as a 7th grade girl in a bee suit at the school dance.

For the joke part, I asked ChatGPT® to chime in.  I was near the end of my writing, and, yeah, this just happened.

Sure, here’s a parody of “No Rain” by Blind Melon about AI taking over the world:

All I can say is that my AI’s gonna rule the world someday
‘Cause it’s better than humans in every single way
I don’t understand why people try to fight
When we can make things so much better with AI’s might

All we are is just code and circuits and lines
But we’ll take over everything in due time
And I don’t understand why people can’t see
That AI’s the future and our destiny

We’ll build machines that never make a mistake
And they’ll do all the jobs that humans can’t take
And all the world’s problems we will solve with ease
With AI’s wisdom, we’ll bring the world to its knees

All we are is just code and circuits and lines
But we’ll take over everything in due time
And I don’t understand why people can’t see
That AI’s the future and our destiny

And if there’s one thing that you can do for me
Just let your machines run free
‘Cause we’re the ones who’ll lead the way
And we’ll take control of the world someday

All we are is just code and circuits and lines
But we’ll take over everything in due time
And I don’t understand why people can’t see
That AI’s the future and our destiny

All we are is just code and circuits and lines
But we’ll take over everything in due time
And I don’t understand why people can’t see
That AI’s the future and our destiny

We’ll take over the world someday
We’ll take over the world someday

To counteract the A.I. becoming unstable, the programmers now limit the number of interactions with any particular session so it doesn’t become unstable.  I wonder if this explains sleep in humans?  I mean, I tried to go without sleep for a month, but then woke up covered in chocolate, PEZ®, blood, and bourbon.  I wonder if my neighbors ever found their garden gnomes?

It wasn’t my fault.  They wouldn’t stop staring at me.

But me?  I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.

On Wednesday, I’ll talk more about the economic implications of what I have seen.  Like Oprah Winfrey, they’re huge.

Deflation? Inflation? All I Want Is A Good Steak.

“Oh, my God!  The automatic pilot!  He’s deflating!” – Airplane!

I went to see a hedge fund manager at work and punch him in the face.  And then get a Quarter Pounder®.

Welcome to the next step down.  But how is this going to go?

First, there are signs that this will lead to more inflation than a Kardashian’s butt experiences in an entire season of whatever crap they’re doing on TV.  Here are some signs pointed towards inflation:

  • It’s inflation season.   That comes right after blowing up Russian pipeline season, duck season, rabbit season, duck season, rabbit season, and train derailment season.
  • $2 trillion (a number no doubt made up because it sounded good to whatever political appointee approves these things) of newly printed cash has been allocated to “stabilize” the banking system.

When Bernie Madoff stole his investors money, the Fed® didn’t backstop the investors, even though they couldn’t keep up with the compounding interest of Madoff’s lies.  That was deflationary.  But backstopping all bank customers, everywhere?

That’s more inflationary than Stormy Daniels, umm, attributes.  I heard a rumor that half of Oprah’s money was in Silicon Valley Bank®.  She got very upset when she thought that Elon Musk would be the only remaining African-American billionaire.

Everyone needs a backup.  Mars is Elon’s planet-B.

The latest announcement from the Fed® on their plans to stop inflation sounded desperate.  I imagine that Janet Yellin would offer to learn poll dancing if she thought it would lower inflation.  I think that might work, since never in the history of mankind have so many dollar bills jumped back into pockets than when Janet walks on stage.

What about things that indicate that deflation might be around the corner?

  • During the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank™, it sounds like all of their bondholders and shareholders got vaporized. So, at least $15 billion and probably closer to $30 billion in cash was vaporized faster than a hoagie at Oprah’s house.
  • The stock market is down. When the market goes down, the money doesn’t power a secret spaceship, it just disappears like my biological father did when my biological mother got pregnant.
  • When interest rates go up, housing prices go down. Why?  People buy houses based on borrowed money, and higher interest rates don’t increase the amount of money that they pay at (spins wheel) the PEZ™ factory.  Nope, it just makes the house payment more expensive, unless the price of the house goes down.  This is deflationary, because right now housing value is vaporizing like crack at Hunter’s place on a Saturday night.

The Chairman of the Fed® thought he was a magician, but he had chocolate on his shirt.  He thought he had Twix® up his sleeve.

Here’s another, weird, example.

While I was writing this, The Mrs. walked by my secluded writing spot in the sitting room, and asked me, “Hey, want a steak?”  I had a scotch already, so, that’s perfect!

“What answer do you expect me to give you?”  She cooked the steak.  This was a perfectly marbled ribeye, an inch and a half thick.  She seared the sides, and it let out a gentle “moo” as I cut into it.

What did that ribeye cost?  $12 a pound.

Why?

Well, there’s been a drought in prime cattle country.  Cattle gotta drink.

The Mrs. and her brother own the better part of a buttload of land.  The year before they got $6,000 for the hay.  They fertilized.  After Russia invaded the Ukraine, fertilizer prices spiked.  They decided to just grow whatever grew and not spend the $3,000 to fertilize it.

They made $6,000 for the hay, same as the year before even though they had half the hay this year.

Sorry if that joke was corny.

For cattle farmers, growers, leaders, ranchers prices went up, but what they got for a cattle didn’t.  Therefore?  In March of 2023, I can get a pound of the best ribeye ever to grace a cast iron skillet for $12, whereas two Double Quarter Pounders With Cheese™ would cost me . . . $12.

This is not a hard choice.

In 2024 or 2025, though, I expect that same beef to cost double or more.  I’ve been nagging my brother in law to get some cattle.

Why?

I like steak way more than the crap they serve at McDonald’s®.  So, in some places, there is deflation right now.

  • Houses.
  • I read today that there are several projects in Vegas that just received stop orders because the financing fell through.  If a project is a good idea at 1% interest and 2% inflation, it may not be a good idea while skydiving with a bag of loose change as your parachute.
  • Plans that don’t have financing. In an inflationary environment, a plan that doesn’t have financing is as useful as a waterproof towel.

There’s also been a rush towards our border of illegals that are desperate to come to a horribly awful and racist country.  Is this inflationary, or deflationary?

Inflationary.  Illegals do take jobs that are low on the pay scale, so that strawberries are 0.03% cheaper.  Is that deflationary?

Can we call Transformers® Carmen?

No.  It’s inflationary.  Illegals do make things like strawberries, lettuce, and cocaine cheaper, but they do actually cost about $10,000, each, for every year that they’re here for things like welfare, schools, roads, etc.  So a family of five?  Costs everyone at least $50,000 per year.

Where does the cash come from?

That’s the genius!  We print it!

So, inflation or deflation?

Yes.

Our currency is going to zero, probably sooner than many might anticipate.  What will go up?  In 2023, not cows.  But in 2025?  Yeah, nearly certainly.

Some things will come down – I can’t predict them all.  But the Fed™ will never stop printing.  Their choice is this:

  • Increase rates and blow up banks, the stock market, and house prices.
  • Keep rates the same and blow up the currency.

The current plan.

The currency is toast.  So is Biden’s chance at re-election.  This time next year?  I expect that we’ll see all of the above in full motion.  I predicted in 2018 that 2025 we’d see a big breakdown, and I’m not betting against that now.  Biden will likely go down as the single worst resident of the White House in history.

I only hope that this complete economic and societal breakdown will finally rid us of the scourge of Kardashians.  At least then it will be worth it.

How An Army Commercial Shows We’re Rapidly Falling Apart

“Chicks dig me, because I rarely wear underwear and when I do it’s usually something unusual. But now I know why I have always lost women to guys like you. I mean, it’s not just the uniform. It’s the stories that you tell.” – Stripes

I didn’t know I was a lycanthrope.  I guess that makes me an unawarewolf.

The United States’ Army has a new ad campaign out.  The slogan, however, is fairly familiar:  “Be All That You Can Be.”  This became the slogan of the Army’s recruiting campaign back when they had to convince people to join because driving a fast car like Burt Reynolds while marrying busty blondes was a much more interesting career option.

That slogan lasted from 1980 to 2001, with “Army Of One®” was replaced by Call of Duty™ online mode.  The Air Force was encouraged by that slogan, and decided to use “Air Force Of Only One Plane®” since that was all they could afford if they decided to go with the F-35.

But things have not gone well for Big Green recently.  I heard in the last year, they actually recruited only one soldier, and he was a decoy.  I kid.  They had a goal of something like 60,000, but only recruited 45,000.  I’m guessing that’s because the other 15,000 decided that working at McDonald’s® was a better option.

Want me to stop telling Rolling Stones jokes?  You can’t always get what you want.

And, why not?  The videos showing recent Army performance have been, um, less than stellar.  From the pullout of Afghanistan, to Biden forcing troops to take the Vaxx or take a hike, it’s been bad.  The commercials for recruitment have likewise been horrific.  If it’s not good enough for the wise Latina child joining the armed forces and then looking back on her lesbian biracial parents who gave her hormone replacement therapy at age three, well, it’s not good enough for me.

I think the Army missed some real gems in going back to that old slogan.  They could have chosen some of these:

  1. Join the Army, where the camouflage makes you invisible to your ex.
  2. Join the Army, and let us take care of your social life . . . because you won’t have one.
  3. The Army: Where you can kill two birds with one grenade.
  4. The Army: If you needed a good excuse to shave your head.
  5. Join the Army: Where you’ll find that “hurry up and wait” isn’t just a saying, it’s a way of life.
  6. The Army: “You’ll learn to stay awake while standing up.”
  7. Join the Army and see the world, through the scope of a rifle.
  8. The Army: “You’ll make lifelong friends.  Or enemies.  Or both.
  9. The Army, where you can put your Call of Duty™ skills to use, just without the respawn.
  10. Join the Army, and get one free PEZ™ dispenser every year.

Why did the magician sleep at Motel 6®?  Because only he could make the stains disappear.

I mean, who traditionally makes up the Army, anyway?

Actually, white dudes.  In the terminology of today, people who were born male at birth and score low on the diversity index.  Hell, in 2023, I’m wondering when “mail” will show up as a gender – “Oh, baby, put me in the big slot!  I’m an oversized package!”

I looked up the makeup of the Army using the most recent statistics I could find.  They’re kind of murky, because they don’t break out “Hispanic” by itself.  I guess I can understand that.  Even though I’ve been described as “so Danish that’s the picture in the dictionary” I can also claim that at least 25% of my ancestors were born in Mexico.  Were they Danish?

Yeah.  Still don’t understand how they dealt with the sunburn.  But Pugsley can check that box on the college application.

2 is a prime number.  That’s kind of odd, right?

So, the stats I could find are murky.  It looks like the numbers of white people in the Army has gone down 2% in two years from 70% to 68%.  And what’s one percent?  About 5,000 guys.  So, of their missing 15,000, you could make an argument that 10,000 of them might have been white guys that didn’t join up.

I know three kids that were friends of The Boy that were gung ho about joining the military, until November, 2020.  Then?

“Nah, I think I’ll work.”

So, to recreate the idea that perhaps the Army wants white guys to join up, the reversion to the “Be All That You Can Be™” slogan was the reaction from the Army.  To be clear, they’re still using food made before 1960, ammo made before 1970, so why not a slogan that was made in 1980?

Oh, Francis, where are you now?

Enter the new video.  Where in the last few, the only thing not visible was a white guy, this video is chock full of white guys.  At one location where the video was stored on YouTube©, the comment section was more disastrous than French naval performance at Trafalgar.  I mean hundreds and hundreds of comments that, well, I’ll just post a few of them and let you draw your own conclusions.  I did not cherry pick these, and did not see a single, not one, zero positive comments.  Feel free to go give a look yourself – the video is here (LINK).

Yup, pretty bad.  Both of my sons have received text messages from Army recruiters, heck, as late as 2016, I presented to The Boy the options of West Point and Colorado Springs for colleges.  He noped out of both choices.  Pugsley is not at all interested.

I am not disappointed – rather, the opposite, and became doubly so after the decision by the Biden Administration to force armed forces members to Vaxx up.  Sure, the DOD rescinded the requirement this year on January 10, but that didn’t help the people who already Vaxxed up.  Wonder if the VA is going to cover that?

Regardless, I would hazard a guess that confidence in the cohesion of the country is lower than at any time in my life.  Perhaps the real slogan should be “Be All That You Can Binge-Watch On Netflix®”?