The Pros and Cons of Working for a Corporation (As Written on a REALLY Cynical Day)

“Could you tell me something about the Corporate Wars?” – Rollerball (1975)

accountingirregularities

My CEO says this is the wave of the future for corporations, or at least he does when we go visit him at San Quentin.

“Dad, where should I go to work to make a fortune before I win a Nobel Prize®?”  The Boy actually said this to me when he was in fifth grade one day while just he and I were out driving.  I think that his expectations might be more in line with reality right now.  In his defense, by that time he had already made the equivalent of $2,500 by trading in Bitcoin and other crypto currency in his bedroom on the computer he had built when he was in fourth grade.  I had no idea that he’d set up a trading shop in his bedroom until Wired® showed up to do a profile on him.  Needless to say, his computer moved to the front room the next day.

Today, The Boy’s expectations are a bit more in keeping with what most adults consider reality.  He’s thinking about college and career.  The Boy is now contemplating a life of drudgery where he spends his time at a dull, faceless gray job working long hours so he can fulfill his obligations by existing only to pay bills until he dies.  Oh, wait.  I guess I misspelled, “looking to go out and conquer the world!”

revenues down

Seriously, who touches people at work besides strippers and Joe Biden?

The sad fact is, however, that most Americans nowadays work for mid or large-sized organizations of more than 100 employees.  What’s the definition of most?

70%+.

I guess that makes sense.  We live in an age that celebrates the collective, the large, the behemoth, and that’s just our sodas and underpants.  And working for a corporation/large organization has to be nice, right?  Of course it is.  Otherwise, just like vaping, all the cool kids wouldn’t be doing it.

Well, there are upsides:

  • Steady Paycheck: Large organizations have figured out how to get money.  Notice I didn’t say make money.  Some borrow it.  Some get suckers  A friend of mine once did a calculation on a large corporation – I think it was GM©.  At the point of his calculation, if you took all of the money invested in the company, and all of the profits the company had ever seen and subtracted the investments from the profit, GMâ„¢ had lost money over its 100 year plus history.  But the check cashes every payday, so what is there to complain about?
  • Benefits: In theory, a large organization can negotiate discounts that save the organization money while providing valuable health care to employees, but in practice it’s a choice between selling the kidney the didn’t operate on to pay the bill or Fred’s Medical School Discount Surgery®.
  • Relative Disconnect Between Pay and Performance: So, why is this listed as an upside?  You have bad days.  Bad weeks.  Bad months.  So blame it on the business cycle.  Or on some competitor.  Or on someone.  Certainly it wasn’t you.  Mostly, a boss will buy this as long as you didn’t take a pellet gun and shot customers/other employees in the butt as they walked by while spraying mosquito repellent in their eyes.  Heck, even if you did do that, blame it on Phil from Marketing.  Everybody knows Phil is crazy.
  • Autocratic Governance: Your boss may be horrific, but can you imagine how bad they would be if you had to elect them?  Can you imagine the campaigns?  Then Phil from Marketing would start a Political Action Committee . . . .
  • Specialization: This is a true upside.  It’s nice that large organizations offer positions where you can study and become a true expert on a narrow slice of the business to improve results through superior knowledge.  Thankfully, after you’ve done this you can train your replacements from India who work for wages paid in cardboard, broken furniture, and used dental floss.

nigerian prince

“I wonder if McDonald’s® is hiring,” wondered wonderful Karen wonderingly.

  • Increasing Rewards: The farther up the organizational ladder, a strange thing happens.  It’s mentioned above that pay gets decoupled from performance, but the higher you go, the more likely you get raises and huge bonuses if the business performs poorly.  You’d think that this would require more work, but it really doesn’t.  Please tell me the last time you took off in the middle of the day to smoke weed while you were on a podcast?  Yeah, looking at you, Elon.
  • Occasionally, Working With Great Teams For A Great Boss: By accident, you are occasionally thrown together with a likeable group of competent people with good hygiene who share common interests.  These people are dedicated to producing good results and in helping each other for both individual success and group success.  Please notify HR if this happens so the team can be broken up and reallocated through the business.

seance

Apple’s® 2024 business strategy.

But it’s not all wine and PEZ® coffee and bagels.  There are downsides to large organizations, too:

  • Politics/Egos: This is the biggest one.  You might be humming along, doing great work, and achieving great results.  Then your boss gets promoted and you get his replacement:  Politics Manâ„¢.  Politics Man© doesn’t care about what you do or how you do it or the results you get.  Politics Man®, in fact, won’t pay any attention at all, since his superpower has replaced normal logic with a finely tuned sense of how he looks that day to his boss and/or the CEO, along with his other power, to turn Perception to Reality.
  • Perception is Reality: I had one job where my boss may have been a biker who indicated that he paid a witness in a felony trial to “be out of state” on the court date.  I have no idea if he was telling the truth, but he was weird enough that we all thought that he actually lived in his office.  His particular brand of Business Fu (ancient New York martial art) was to convince everyone that he was blameless.  In one particular instance he decided to blame me.  Thankfully, I had a friend who heard about this and tipped me off.  I walked into his office and used Wilder Fu:  “You know, I’m glad you’re my boss, since if I look bad, you look bad and perception is reality.  I know you’ll take care of me.”  He switched from blaming me to blaming Phil from Marketing.

drawing on windows

That’s what we do at work, just draw random words and circle them.  It’s motivating.

  • Random Compensation: One year I saved the company $800,000 dollars – and not made up dollars, actual dollars.  Result?  A 2.13% raise.  One year I didn’t contribute a whole lot at all but looked great doing it.  20% bonus.
  • Increasing Rewards: If you’re getting the increasing rewards, they’re awesome.  If you’re working and read in the paper how the CEO is off to Monaco after buying a New York penthouse, maybe not so much.
  • Most Decisions Don’t Matter (Pareto): As I’ve discussed before (Pareto and the 80/20 Rule Explain Wealth) a small number of decisions you make are the most important ones.  It’s the same for a company.  Most decisions simply don’t matter if you get them right.  I’ve noticed that if I want to keep management busy, I’ll ask them what color they want something to be.  They’ll spend (nearly up to the CEO Level) hours and hours with meeting after meeting just to pick carpet color.  One time the president of a multi-billion dollar corporation had to pick who got what office at a facility located somewhere in BFE.  As an aside – The Boy heard me say “BFE” the other day and was greatly amused when he found out the definition.  You can Google it® (not safe for work).  I’ll wait.
  • No One Knows Which Decisions Matter: Which decisions are important?  You can’t really be 100% sure – the chain of events started by a typographical error on a McDonald’s® menu that led to Joseph Stalin’s clone destroying Europe in 1978 and the rest of humanity having to escape to another dimension where they never invented the virus that wiped the memory of everyone that with an IQ of less than 160 . . . oh, I’ve said too much.  Never mind.

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It was even sadder when they started fighting about who got to keep the trophy for “Nearly On Time To Work This Week, Tied For Sixth Place.”

  • Rules: Big organizations have rules.  Silly ones like having to show up on time.  Showering at least weekly.  Not flirting with the waitress.  Oh, wait, that’s not work, that’s home.  But big organizations do have rules, too, and they have to.  Why?  Because somebody always has to push the limits.  Every single rule in every company’s HR policy manual has a story behind it.  And every story has Phil from Marketing behind it.  Stupid Phil.
  • Weird Bosses That Got Promoted Beyond The Level of Sanity: See above.  This has happened often enough that I think that being a psychopath is a predictor of business success.  Oh, wait, it is? (LINK) That explains everything.

philfuneral

My bad.

  • Depersonalizing: You can be replaced.  That’s really part of the strength of a corporation – everyone from the CEO to the accountants to Phil from Marketing can be replaced.  In most cases, unless the CEO is visionary (and most aren’t) you’ll never notice the difference.  Who else is part of this faceless collective?    And the system will put you into a gray box with gray computer and gray walls and a gray chair.  Why gray?  Because it goes with everything.
  • Nobody Really Cares: I’ve worked with hundreds of people during my career.  Outside of a few coworkers from decades past, I’ve lost touch with most of them.  It’s not just that I’m a jerk (I am) but also that people are busy with their jobs, their lives and the only intersection they have with you revolves around that 8AM to 5PM time slot.  They’re like people your mom paid to have come to your birthday party when you were five.  Or that porkchop she put around your neck so the dog would play with you.

conference room

This wasn’t on my physics final.

  • Large Organization Jobs Only Prepare You To Work For Large Organizations: Let’s say you hit mid-career and decide you want to open up your own Sushi-Pizza chain called Samurai Luigi’s – it’s okay, I won’t tell anyone that your secret is serving the pizza raw, too.  Chances are you haven’t learned anything about business that’s useful beyond a small narrow window of “capital tax law related to manufacturing investment for Spork® production in Toledo, Ohio.”  See, corporations want you to be good at that.  But it won’t help with your garlic-salmon-tiramisu or knowing who to bribe to get the local building permit.

So, chances are you’ll be working for a large corporation, but that’s okay.  And to all of you soon-to-be graduates out there, look forward to a life of drudgery where you spends your time at a dull, faceless gray job working long hours so you can fulfill your obligations by existing only to pay bills until you die go out and conquer the world!”

Want Some Short Term Gain and Long Term Pain? Also, Malta.

“In 1539, the Knight Templars of Malta paid tribute to Charles V of Spain by sending him a Golden Falcon encrusted from beak to claw with rarest jewels.  But pirates seized the galley carrying this priceless token and the fate of the Maltese Falcon remains a mystery . . .” – The Maltese Falcon

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In Malta they don’t check your bags for guns, they check them with guns.

Sometimes advice that is good for a country is really bad for an individual.  I tried building my own navy once, and it was an abysmal failure, since I’ve never lived near water all the ships just sat on the gravel.  Thankfully it was still enough of a navy that France surrendered anyway.  So, memo to self:  don’t build a navy 1000 miles away from water unless you want to take Paris.

But why beat on France?  I’ve discovered that on this blog, it’s really okay to trash-talk the French because in the last year I’ve gotten more traffic from Malta than I have from France on an absolute basis.  On a per capita basis, Malta is ahead on visitor count of any place in the world.  The United States is second, but it’s gaining ground.  Malta, spread the word!

I digress because it’s late and I’m a bit punchy – so I’ll get back to the point.  One place where the advice for a country and the advice for an individual both make sense is when it comes to know-how.  Where does know-how come from?  Sweat.

I had a boss fairly early in my career (technically a grand-boss, i.e., my boss’s boss) who was fairly fond of saying, especially when assigning a task that would entail huge hours of overtime and personal sacrifice, “Think of it as short-term pain for long-term gain.”  He’d smile when he said it, but that didn’t make it better.

Being young and stupid, we grumbled about what he was saying:  “What does he know?  It’s always short-term pain.  We’ll never get to the long-term gain.”  This was exactly the type of short-sightedness you’d expect out of a kid.  And we were kids, really.  We also worked our butts off while we were in our twenties, and most people who started in that group did okay.  The short-term pain translated (finally) into long-term gain.

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Please donate to Malta so they can end this horrible poverty.

It’s that way for individuals.  Is it that way for countries, too?

Yes, absolutely.

When you do something productive, anything productive, you learn.  You learn as an individual.  You learn as a company.  You learn as a country.  If you do it right, it’s painful.  It’s hard.  It’s work.  It’s frustrating.  And when you finally win?  It’s exhilarating.

If you do a really, really, really good job?  You get rewarded, by trying to do it again.

And those results are consistent between an individual, a company, and a country.

Imagine a kid who was born wealthy.  Given tutors.  Given “help” getting into a good college.  Coasted in college.  Coasted in Daddy’s company.  Unless Daddy was very, very wealthy, the kid will ruin the company as he runs the company.  Why?  The kid never had to work, never had to learn.

The entire life of the child was built around pain-avoidance.

M3

Okay, I’ll admit, that water looks the complete opposite of painful.  I guess I wouldn’t learn anything there.

I’m not going to blame wealth – wealth is neither moral nor immoral.  I’ve known wealthy kids who were better people than I’ll ever be.  I’ve known wealthy kids who weren’t worth gum on the bottom of my sneaker.  But poverty is no virtue, either.  I’ve met horrible people who had no money.  And, again, I’ve met people who were dead broke that could qualify for sainthood.

Morality aside (for the moment) the one thing I know about effective people is that they know how to work hard.  They are driven.  Most of them, wealthy or not, were not spoiled.

Pain and sweat is good for companies, too.  It makes them shed employees, it makes them focus on the things they do that actually provide value to the customer.  Or they die.  And the death of inefficient companies is good – those resources can go to companies that can be efficient, can meet the needs of their customers, like PEZ®.

But the critical step is playing the game.  If iPhones® aren’t made in the United States, we simply won’t know how to make them.  Certainly someone knows how to make them, but it’s not Apple™.  I won’t argue that Apple© designed the phone, but there is a world of difference between designing a complex integrated electronic component and building it.  In building iPhones™, the Chinese have solved the technical details on how to implement that design and how to stack all the apps behind that sheet of glass so they don’t fall out.  I’m relatively certain (though I’m not in those meetings) that Chinese teams from the manufacturer meet regularly with the Apple™ teams on design.  The Chinese teams tell Apple® most of what Apple© wants to know, but the Chinese teams learn:

  • Global logistics
  • Effective employee training
  • What stock options are
  • Management of complex system integration
  • Where the best restaurants are in Palo Alto
  • Quality control

All of that’s pretty good, but they also develop the teams on ground – the engineering know-how to solve the production problems that invariably start.  You might have a complete set of drawings of a baby, but you certainly don’t know how to build one from start to finish.  Nobody does.

Oh, wait.  You probably do.  Okay, pretend the baby is a 1966 Mustang™.  That you don’t know how to build from start to finish.  You have to go all the way from smelting iron to figuring out how to put numbers on the AM radio dial.

That’s (one of) the problems that we have getting into space nowadays.  We forgot how to build the Apollo stuff.  Certainly we know, for instance, what chemicals went into the heat shield on the Apollo command module, but we had to figure out how to build one in 2018 – the engineers who did it in the first place are all retired.  My bet is that they didn’t figure out how to build it the way they did in the 1960’s – they probably figured out a new solution.

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More fun facts:  If you stacked all of the current residents of Rome in the Pantheon, someone would arrest you, unless they were at the bottom of the stack.

This isn’t the first time we’ve lost technology.  The Romans used concrete to build many structures, including the largest un-reinforced concrete dome ever – at 142 feet in diameter.  How do we know this?  The dome still exists today – it’s in Rome, and it’s called the Pantheon, and like your mother, it’s almost 2,000 years old.  Yes it’s made of concrete, as in concrete just like your garage floor is made of.  But after the Goths came over for an extended visit, the Romans . . . forgot how to make it.  Consequently, concrete wasn’t “invented” again until 1824, and we weren’t that great with it until 1900 or so.  The Romans had a quality of concrete that was so good, it wasn’t until the last few decades that we were able to match it, and some of the properties we still can’t figure out.

We don’t have records on all the failures and sweat that the Romans had as they perfected their concrete, but they were good at it.

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This floor could break a LOT of plates.

But as the Romans learned, if you don’t make stuff anymore, you forget how to do it.  You specialize it, you ship it abroad.  The Romans didn’t have time for nasty old industries like making dinner plates, so they shipped it off to a lower labor cost area in what’s now France.  Archaeologists know this because when they sifted through the trash, they found these really nice plates.  But after Rome fell, trade fell off with France, and the factories closed because they didn’t have customers.  Archaeologists love plates because people break them on a periodic basis, and even more often if there are teenage boys in the house.  Thus, they go into the trash at a regular rate, and you can date the trash by the style of plate.

In the trash 100 years after the fall of the Empire (in the west), the plates were rough.  Even the most wealthy people ate off of plates that were inferior in every way to the plates common people had easy access to in the past.  The future didn’t get better, because the Romans forgot.

I worry sometimes that we’re the wealthy spoiled kid, shipping off our work to other people so that they learn how to do it while we ship them money that we’ve printed out of nothing, short-term gain for long-term pain.  But that’s okay.

Based on the recent protests in France, I think the French are planning something.  Maybe they’ll surrender to Malta?

Nah.  The Maltese are too good for the French.

Pantheon photo:  By Mohammad Reza Domiri Ganji – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, via wikimedia

Malta floor photo:  By Sudika [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)] via wikimedia

Pareto and the 80/20 Rule Explain Wealth

“Well, you know, 80% of all homeless rickshaw businesses fail within the first six months.” -Seinfeld

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Pareto:  He was into economics before anyone else was, but it was only because it was ironic.

Vilfredo Pareto was born in France in 1848.  At birth he was given the name Fritz Wilfried but his parents changed it to Vilfredo after the realization that they weren’t German (really – this sounds like a goofy fact I would make up because it might be true, like Lutherans being secret space-vampires, but Vilfredo/Wilfried’s parents actually were kinda nuts).  Vilfredo died in Switzerland.  The logical conclusion?  He must have been Italian.  And he was.

Outside of his extensive collection of Abraham Lincoln-themed women’s undergarments, Pareto is best known to us for the Pareto Principle.  As the story goes, Pareto was in the midst of trying to figure out what laws governed the distribution of wealth, and had pulled together historical economic records from all around Italy.  Now, modern Italian record-keeping is on a par with modern Italian engineering – I mean, has anyone ever been able to keep the oil on the inside of an Italian engine?  But the story goes that while working on this economic problem, Pareto was messing around with the peas in his garden and noticed that 20% of the pea plants produced 80% of the peas.

I don’t believe that story for a second.  It’s a well-known fact that Italians explode like watermelons dropped from the Empire State Building if they are in the same room with a pea.  Don’t ask me about how I know what a watermelon dropped from the Empire State Building looks like – Homeland Security® still hasn’t figured out how the watermelons were smuggled up there.  I’m just saying, never go to Olive Garden™ on Fresh Green Pea Night.  It takes them a week to clean the place up from all of the exploding Italians.

olivegarden

The pea proportions that Pareto allegedly observed, that 80% of peas came from 20% of the plants, seemed to match up with his data in economics.  80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the people.

Looking further, 80% of a business’s profit comes from 20% of its customers.  20% of the words in a language account for 80% of the words used.  80% of crime is caused by 20% of criminals.  80% of car accidents are caused by my Mother-In-Law.  Seriously, do NOT be around the woman when she puts the car into reverse.

The numbers aren’t exactly the same in every example but 70/25 or even 75/30 is close enough to prove the point.  80/20 is nice because the math is simple.  It also adds up to be 100, which is nice and makes the number taste better on the tongue, just like watermelon that has been pulverized by being dropped from a great height, even though there is absolutely no reason for the numbers to add up to 100.

To me, however, this proves the idea that the universe isn’t fair.  Talent isn’t equally distributed, and, when you toss in the idea of chance, the result is inequality.  And it’s a vast inequality:  the 80/20 rule holds for wealth.  But you have to dig deeper:  the top 20% that owns 80%?  The top 20% of the top 20% (that’s the top 4%) owns 80% of the 80% (that’s 64%).  So, the top 4% owns 64% of the wealth.  Going one more time:  the top 1% owns roughly 50%.  The real number for the amount of wealth owned by the top 1% is around 38%, so it’s pretty close for an approximation and the missing 12% is probably under a mattress at the Elon Musk’s house.  Pareto’s rule is alive and well in 2019.

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It also tells me that even though intelligence and other human attributes follow a bell curve, wealth does not – it grows geometrically.  An old story I use to illustrate this is:  If you have fifty people in a room and bring in the tallest person in the world, well, the average height in the room goes from 5’ 9” (16 meters) to 5’ 10” (30 centimeters).  But if you add Bill Gates to the room, the average person in the room is a billionaire, though your credit rating might not improve as much as you are expecting.  Our brains are used to dealing with that normal distribution, but are inadequate when dealing with these quantities that grow geometrically.  And I think the thing that fosters that geometric growth in today’s society is increasing returns.

When I was just starting at work after college I knew a little more about computers than the folks I was working with.  Just a little.  But because I knew just a little more, my coworkers would ask me questions if their computer broke or wasn’t working right.  I didn’t necessarily know the answers, but I was able to learn more because I (and another coworker) kept getting all the questions.  Pretty soon I knew lots of arcane stuff about how the computers worked and how the network worked.

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The point isn’t that I’m a computer wizard, or even an apprentice magician anymore.  I got better at computers because I had a tiny advantage over my coworkers.  Magnified by a couple of years?  Expertise.  But expertise has to be used to be kept, and I didn’t keep my computer mojo.  The Boy and Pugsley have me beaten (by far) at this point.  The point is clear, however:  increasing returns is the rule, rather than decreasing returns.  You get better the more you do, and those slight advantages, that slight edge in competence adds up.  You get better by solving those problems that exist around you – much better.  And you don’t have to be perfect – you just have to be a little better than anyone else.

That was the story of manufacturing in the United States.  There is a ton of knowledge in books about how to make things, but what’s not in the books is the everyday know-how that’s required to actually make the machines run.  The more manufacturing we did as a country, the better we were at it, and the more know-how we had accumulated.  In one story that amazes me still – the SR-71 Blackbird, the fastest manned, air-breathing aircraft that officially exists, was built from contract to flight in just over two years in the early 1960’s.  The X-15 was faster, and also built in the 1960’s but it’s not a fair comparison, since it’s essentially the same as flying a rocket.

sr71

Now?  Fighter development takes decades.  Sure, they’re more complicated, but it took eight years from contract to prototype, and a further fifteen years to be put into service.  I doubt we could make the SR-71 today in less than a decade, if even then.

I think that one of three things is happening:  the first possibility is that we’ve forgotten how to make great stuff quickly, which Pareto can easily explain.  The second possibility is that we’re stupider, which I’ll cover in a post within the next month.  The third is we’ve forgotten how to make stuff AND we’re stupider.  It’s like we’re sitting drooling drinking warm Coca-Cola® because we forgot the recipe to make ice.

You can wipe away the drool because the bright side is this:  most of the decisions that you make don’t impact you all that much.  Pareto is at work here, too.  20% of your decisions, actions, and habits account for 80% of where you are in wealth, health, and wisdom.  The nice thing is that you already know what habits are good or bad, which ones take you away from your goals, and which ones help you.

The best part?  You don’t have crazy Italian parents who can’t decide what your name should be.

Kardashians, Hairy Bikinis, Elvis, Wealth, and Virtue

“Kim Kardashian is so sexy, her butt is like a big mountain of pudding.” – South Park

kardwolf

I hear the only way they can be avoided is if you don’t have any money.

This is the last of the series of three posts about virtue, at least for now.  The other two are linked near the bottom.

If you look at rich people, you can see fairly rapidly that being wealthy isn’t a sign of a virtuous life.  There are no shortages of bimbos in Hollywood® who get famous by “leaking” a sex tape to get famous, in fact it’s odd now to have a famous person who doesn’t have a series of sex tapes, although if you take my advice you’ll skip the Ruth Bader Ginsburg tape.

This unearned fame is perplexing to me.  It seems to be that to progress as a celebrity you should have done as little as possible to help mankind.  The entire idea that people willingly give money to the Kardashian family makes me vaguely ill, or maybe that’s just thinking of the Kardashians in general.  The Kardashians look like a species that’s closely related to humanity, but just far enough apart from us that mating with them would be illegal in almost every state, except maybe California.

Come to think of it, they do live in California.  Hmmm.

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A Kardashian in its natural state.  I believe they have insurance against Velcro.

As I’ve mentioned before, Epictetus (a dead Stoic Greek philosopher dude) felt that wealth was neither virtue nor vice in and of itself.  The Stoics certainly thought that preferring wealth was okay, but getting all bent out of shape about it (or about anything) wasn’t.  But, Kardashians aside, are there virtues that are associated with getting wealthy?

I looked and found (LINK) a study of traits were found to be present more in high earners than “average” earners.  They were:

  • High earning people don’t hate or worship money – they don’t avoid wealth nor place too much importance on money. Of course, when you’re pulling down $400,000 a year, a few extra bucks for a giant-sized plutonium-plated Elvis™ PEZ® dispenser doesn’t even get your attention.  However, if you’re making $14,000 a year, counting the grains of rice in a box of Rice-a-Roni® (The San Francisco Treat™!) makes sense to make sure that the Dollar Store© isn’t cheating you again.

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All hail Elpezvis!  And thanks to Karl for this wonderful photo!

  • Not fans of luck. The psychological name for this was “internal locus of control.”  Yeah, sounds like part of the navigation system on the U.S.S. Enterprise.  In human-speak, it means whether or not they felt they were lucky (or unlucky) or their situation in life was due to their hard work and effort.  My bet is if you ask any really successful person this question that they’ll give that answer – but I’m also aware that MANY people work even harder than the average CEO, putting in more hours doing harder, messier, more thankless work.
  • Rich people wanted to be wealthy and put more value on it than average income people. Part of this might have been related to average income people rationalizing – I know that I put less importance on hair now that it’s left my scalp like Guatemalans leaving Guatemala because it’s Guatemala.  I wonder what my hair had against my scalp?  Could I build a wall to keep it from migrating down my back?
  • Had more “financial knowledge” – this was self-reported – they didn’t give them a test.
  • Workaholics had more wealth, which doesn’t surprise me, and high-earners were “enablers” – loaning money to deadbeat relatives. I’m guessing this is a function of “not trying to borrow money from people who don’t have it.”

The only virtuous bit I could find in all of that (and I had to stretch to do it) was that the rich seem to develop an indifference to money when they have some.  It’s like an indifference to pizza after you’ve had enough lasagna to stuff Sardinia, however.  Sure, it’s virtuous, but only just barely.

What I didn’t see on the list was conscientiousness, or faithfulness, or discipline or even self-control.  True virtues seemed to be missing.  I guess I have to deal with facts:  jerks get rich.  Unscrupulous people get rich, nepotists get rich (a lot!).  CEOs trade in wives like used Yugos®, and CEOs move from company to company the way I move from room to room in my house.

yugocap

Ahhh, all the luxury of communist Eastern Europe combined with the reliability of an Italian car.  How could it lose?

Do I hate wealth?  I absolutely do not.  Do I hate the wealthy?  Not a chance, some of them are awesome.  Do I think that churches preaching “prosperity gospel” are helping Christianity?  Probably not.  I’m pretty sure that God wants your faith more than he wants you to have a Mercedes-Benz®, even if all your friends do drive Porsches©.

But wealth is fleeting.  Companies fail over time.  Sears™ used to dominate multiple fields – appliances, tools, insurance, even their own credit card.  Now they’re tottering on the edge of bankruptcy.  And that serves a purpose, just like the death of an individual.  The economy must be cleansed over time, or else it becomes, well, sick.

Stealing from Eaton Rapids Joe (LINK) where he compares the economy to a salmon stream:

At one time it was commonly believed that dams would benefit salmon spawning.  It was believed that regulating the flow so that it was constant would be most beneficial.

The unintended consequence was that the constant stream cut a deep and narrow channel, just like a band saw.

The narrow channels intercepted very little sunlight…the driver of nearly all life on the planet.  The channel was devoid of pools and riffles, gravel beds of various coarseness, rocks to break the current and beds of seaweed.  They were a desert for salmon fry.

His blog is excellent, and you should visit it daily (LINK).

But like that salmon stream, when we seek to get wealth without virtue, have a country without virtue (Roman Virtues and Western Civilization, Complete with Monty Python) or even attempt to become immortal (Books, Stoics, Immortality (Now Available on Stick)) we condemn ourselves to a world where hairy near-human Kardashians are free to wander without fear of a razor.

And that is a world no man wants to live in.

bradgelina

It’s . . . spreading!

Limits to Growth and Exponential Feminists

“Look, man, do I look like an ichthyologist to you?  Big damn bugs, all right?  The size of my fist.  The size of a peanut butter and banana sandwich.  What do I know?  I got a growth. . . .” – Bubba Ho Tep

growth2

Zombies or Mad Max®. 

When my older brother, also (really) named John Wilder, (my parents didn’t want to have to call two names when they called us for dinner) came back from college one year, he brought back a large number of textbooks.  Most of the books were exceedingly dull, written by exceedingly dull college professors about business.  I’m not sure what a college professor would know about business, since if they were any good at business they’d have one, not teach it.  Honestly, I have no idea why you’d want to get a college degree in “business” at all, unless it was because you like spending $20,000 a year to drink beer and go rock climbing with college girls wearing skimpy outfits . . .

Oh, that’s why you get a degree in business and take six years to get it.  Never mind.

But one of my brother’s textbooks caught my eye, a copy of Limits to Growth.  It was a dog-eared paperback with a bright yellow sticker on matte black background proclaiming it, “USED.”  Knowing my brother’s interest in subjects like economics and the fate of society, the only way that particular textbook was USED was as a doorstop or beer coaster.  I’m surprised that Limits to Growth was being used as a textbook, since my brother was going to school at a community college on a competitive mixed doubles checkers scholarship, and actually teaching something to a student athlete at a community college can cause the college to lose its accreditation, I’ve been told.

Limits to Growth was a book based on a computer model back when a 2006 Blackberry® had ten times as much computing power as a the computer they used.  The study came out in 1972, when, for whatever reason, the entire world mood started to get gloomy.  Here is a book cover from a novel published that same year:

cover

Yes, Ma Wilder bought this for me (at my insistence) when I was about 12.  It was a little gloomier than Harry Potter® or Captain Underpants™.

This particular computer model used by the authors was one that purported to take a bunch of inputs and determine future economic growth and population.  Because computers are magic, I guess.

Spoiler alert!  The results were not good.

graph1

Well, this is one solution for overpopulation . . .

You can fiddle with the model yourself over here (LINK).  I played with it a few times and, like an amateur knitter gladiating against Spartacus at the Coliseum™ on Ladies Night (two for one Buffalo wings!) I kept losing.  I guess my inability to make the computer model turn out well means billions of you are going to have to die and civilization will collapse.  Sorry.  Bright side?  Buffalo wings.

The one fault I have with the model is that most of the “solutions” that drive longer human civilization timelines or stability involve state control and a general shared misery of technological standstill.  Oh, and almost all of the solutions had to be implemented back in 1972 for them to be useful.

The cure was to stop economic progress, to live in a world that’s much like Cuba – stuck in the 1950’s with oppressive government limiting actions of individuals, up to and including mandatory beards and licensing of new children.  I say “was” because, in the terms of the authors of the original study, it’s too late now to avoid a population growing beyond the capacity of the Earth to provide for it (overshoot) which inevitably leads to a collapse in population.

Normally I am skeptical of model runs.  Reality has a way of pointing out all of the things we really don’t know when we place too much faith in models.  And yet . . . exponential growth is, well, exponential.  Let me illustrate with a story you’ve probably heard before:

sjw

You can smell the cats through the computer monitor.

If your town has angry feminists with unnaturally-colored hair in it, and they double in number every day, and you know on day 30 that the town will be overrun with feminists, how many much of the town will be overrun on day 29?

Half.  I won’t mansplain that.  But on day 28, only a quarter of the town will smell like cat-loving harpy.  On day 27, only 12.5%.

Oops.  I guess I mansplained that.  But the human brain is not wired out of the box to understand exponentials.  Thousands of years have taught us that people don’t double in height during a day, that the number of villagers don’t double in a month.  But after we study it long enough, we realize the power of exponential growth.  If the number of pageviews on this blog increased like they did on a consistent basis, by the year 2026 I’ll have almost 22 billion pageviews a day.  Heck, some blogs go a whole year and don’t get that many pageviews.

Okay, that really won’t happen.  I’d be lucky to have everyone on Earth visit just once a day.

We’ve been stuck with the exponential growth of humanity.  Al Bartlett (R.I.P.) was a professor of physics at the University of Colorado who lectured a lot about exponential growth.  His website remains up here (LINK).  His conclusion is that, given finite resources, infinite growth isn’t possible.  A guy named Thomas Malthus came to that same conclusion in 1798, but his website was on Myspace® and is down now.

Malthus has been for now, wrong, with respect to Western Civilization.  Technological progress has increased the carrying capacity of Earth and (generally) increased the standard of living of the vast majority when compared to 1798.  At least for now.  As we look at civilizations in the past, from the Romans to the Mayans to Easter Island (and others), all collapsed due to unchecked growth.

So, maybe Bartlett, Malthus, and the Club of Rome will win in the end.  But until then, I guess 20 year olds will spend six years getting business degrees for the beer and the babes.  Might as well enjoy the decline . . . .

What Hockey Taught Me About My Life and My Career (Bonus: Broadswords)

“This is hockey, OK? It’s not rocket surgery.” – Mystery, Alaska

goal

“You da goalie, not Yoda® goalie.”  I have to get my hearing checked.

When I was in middle school, one week we played hockey for P.E.  Where I grew up it was certainly cold enough for water to freeze – but we didn’t have any water, it being nearly a desert and all.  A typical backyard mud puddle in Midwestia is bigger than things we called “lakes” growing up, and you could wade across the local river at flood stage and not get your pants wet.  We did, however, have a gym and roller skates.

A group of uncoordinated seventh graders attempting to roller skate on a gym floor for the first time probably looked like a gaggle of hippos juggling wet sheepdogs.  I wouldn’t know exactly what we looked like, I was busy studying the wood grain of the floor by repeatedly falling onto the free throw line as my skates stubbornly refused to stay underneath me.  The nearly frictionless wheels kept twisting my legs at angles only experienced by crash test dummies, Thanksgiving turkeys, and a stoned Elon Musk.

Why were we so pathetic?

The nearest roller rink was 30 miles away, and what passed for concrete in town was concrete in concept only, with the newest patches of sidewalk having been put down personally by President Roosevelt as he raced Hitler in a sidewalk building contest to determine who had to have Italy on their side.  Anyway, what concrete existed in town was broken, jagged, and was used by NASA to simulate walking on the Moon because it was so rough and powdery.  If we wanted to skate that left skating in actual dirt, because skating on the highway was illegal in every state in the nation until Virginia just recently legalized 30th trimester abortions.

team

I got to be team captain, and no one really argued when I picked goalie as my position.  In two teams of horrible skaters, I was the worst.  Being goalie didn’t require much skating, just being quick and a lot of intentional falling.  As I could fall unintentionally, intentional falling was even easier.  The puck was a hollow plastic disk that weighed next to nothing, and I was quick enough to stop nearly every shot.

It didn’t hurt my goal-tending streak that this was the first time that any of us had ever played hockey and everyone was a horrible shot. I’m pretty sure that our P.E. instructor had only the vaguest idea of what the rules were since he informed us that in order to start the game we had to sacrifice the smallest and weakest player in the middle of the gym for the strength of the tribe while drinking Moosehead® beer.  Since we were underage, he drank all our beers for us.

We’ll all miss Benji.

As I grew older, there was a period of a few years where I watched actual NHL® professional hockey, until they just stopped showing it on any network I could find.  But watching hockey was different than watching other sports – in an average game the players are (at times) going 25-27 miles per hour, and the puck itself is often moving in excess of 100 miles per hour.  In the NFL®, the top receivers run about 20 miles per hour for short bursts, but average much less.

Because of the increased speed in hockey, minor differences in starting position resulted in big separations between players as they accelerated across the ice.  The importance of that separation is the same in all sports, but I really was able to see it when it came to hockey due to the faster speeds.  What’s really important is time and space.  With enough time and space, a hockey player can break away from the crowd and attack the goalie one on one.  With enough time and space, players can be where the action will be five seconds from now.

The same principle holds in football.  With enough time and space, a wide receiver can break away from the defense and score.  I think it holds true in soccer as well, but too often the players are just sitting on the field knitting and drinking brightly colored cocktails with whimsical umbrellas and chunks of fruit before they go shoe shopping.  I think soccer would be much more interesting if they gave the players broadswords with no real rules or guidance on how they are to be used in the game.

soccer

Now, imagine with swords.  See?  Better already.

But what happens in sports also happens in real life, minus my really cool broadsword idea.  The analogy of time and space is incredibly important to people who are trapped on mountains as the storm comes in, or the logistics in supporting an army in the field, or even the position of the individual units in a battle.  Put 5,000 men in the right place and the right time and almost any battle in history swaps winners.  Heck, 300 Spartans (plus 700 Thespians) changed the course of history and saved Western Civilization.  Tell me that Xerxes wouldn’t love to have that one back – lose to the Greeks just the one time and you never hear the end of it.

leonidas

If only they had compromised, imagine how we’d remember them.

To “maximize” your financial potential, you should use your time and space to be where the action is.  Sadly, for my career the right place is bigger cities – huge cities, with populations of millions of people.  A bigger city would be okay, but from what I’ve seen of cities, most of those millions of people I won’t like.  They just seem to be in the way when I try to drive on the congested roads.  Broadswords would be helpful here, too.  The city is filled with activities, though.  Activities that I really don’t want to do – except for nice restaurants and museums, and getting to a big city four or five times a year is necessary, mainly to remind me of all the reasons why I don’t want to move back to a big city.

Thankfully, though, I don’t need to maximize my financial potential – the mortgage that I pay here in Modern Mayberry is less than 27% of the cost for an apartment in San Francisco, and on a per square foot basis?  My cost is 5% (that’s not a misprint) of what I’d pay per square foot in ‘Frisco (the locals love it when you call it that, I hear).  That 5% number just includes house square footage, and doesn’t include the 10 acres the house is on.

With life, time is still time, and space is still space.  And during a career, money is space AND time.  If you only have enough money for this month, you have that much time.  If you have years of money saved up, you have that much time (and more).  Savings is opportunity.  Savings provides options – and those options expand your opportunities.  Enough money gives you time and space – time and space to try things, risky things that have higher rewards.  Or?  Give you time and space to just do what you want.

Which for me is not hockey.  I’ve seen enough gym floors, thank you.

But . . . hear me out . . . how about hockey with broadswords??

hockey

How I Got Into Debt, Trench Warfare, and an End of the World Cult You Can Believe In

“Well, if you don’t like that, try some Archduke Chocula.” – Futurama

franzmeme

After World War One, the phrase, “Happy as a Hapsburg in Serbia” fell out of favor, as did the “Hair Smile” style of mustache.

I’ve already told the story about digging out of debt.  In retrospect, it seems to me that all of those stories end up sounding the same:  “I weighed six hundred pounds, my kitchen floor was covered in dirty dishes and cat food, and I had $3.7 million in debt until I found Wildernetics© and the First Church of PEZology™.  Look at me now!”

flammen

Proof that I am a reincarnated World War One soldier (Part One).  These are from a soldier’s joke newspaper, The Wiper’s (a mangling of Ypres) Times, produced for soldiers by soldiers that found an abandoned printing press.

I know my methods can solve everything, but today I had a crazy idea.  How about spending some time talking about how I got into debt in the first place?  I know that might cut into the revenue of the Wildernetics© End of the World Cult and Take-Out BarBeQue Restaurant®, but I figure you might come back for the brisket.  It’s very tender.

I’ll quit teasing.  How did I get into debt?  First a little.  Then all at once.

Let me rewind a whole marriage.  As regular readers will know, The Mrs. was not the first, but she is the final spouse.  My first marriage was an example of a series of escalating poor mutual decisions where each side seemed to lack a brief moment of sanity to back out before anyone got hurt, sort of like the run up to World War I.  Even before Archduke Franz Ferdinand proved that .380 ACP was a useful round against Hapsburgs and their notably gelatinous bones, World War I was inevitable.  Before I said “I do” everything was in place for the trench warfare of future divorce.

ditch

Okay, I apologize for this joke.  I think it violated the Geneva Convention.

But, rewinding.  After graduating college I got married and got a starter job, which is to say I had a job that just barely paid the bills.  Nearly exactly.  In fact, after working at the job for a few months, we were exactly (most months) at zero.  We weren’t saving any money yet, but we also weren’t in the red.  Success.  My credit card limit was 10,000 . . . Siberian Lira.   This was equivalent to a whole bright and shiny quarter.  This helped me stay debt free.

Then came the table.

optimism

Proof that I am a reincarnated World War One soldier (Part Two), this one is for James.

We had a dining room table.  It wasn’t great, and the chairs that came with it were a bit ratty – the vinyl arms had been slammed into the table often enough that it looked like a pack of rabid Chihuahuas had spent their lives sitting on the chair seats and gnawing on the arms.  I imagine them growling and chewing in unison as they sat around the table, like Viking Chihuahua rowers.  Most all of our furniture was second hand or gifted, but the table really was the biggest eyesore.

unread

Okay, this one isn’t mine, but I couldn’t resist.

At some point discipline broke.  I know how silly it sounds to say that now, but back then, month after month of not buying anything but actual necessities takes more discipline than Elizabeth Warren around a tribal gathering.  Eventually I gave in.  We bought the table.  Using debt.  Back then, individual stores would give you amazing credit limits just to buy their crap.  They gave us more than enough credit to buy that table, and with the money I saved from shipping the Chihuahuas back to Denmark, I figured we’d be money ahead.

fireworks

Proof that I am a reincarnated World War One soldier (Part Three).

The table was only $500, but the difference between having no debt (outside of a mortgage) and having debt, even a small one, was a huge psychological hurdle for me.  It’s like having a doughnut when you’re doing low carb.  “I got weak had one doughnut, so I might as well have, say, 36.  And do you have any whipped cream I could just guzzle straight from the can?  I broke my diet, and don’t want to waste it.”  Pretty soon other nice to have things showed up, very few of which I still own today.  But I had crossed that mental barrier from peace (debt free) to war (spend away!).  Suddenly, the credit card companies realized I had debt, and immediately wanted to lend me more money.  My credit limits tripled.

I hope that this doesn’t sound like I’m blaming The Ex.  Like Adam in the Garden of Eden, I was fully complicit.  Ultimately the debt grew faster than my wages.  This led to the idea of grad school:  I could get free tuition plus be a paid graduate assistant.  Would it work?

Sure.  There were also student loans.  Free money!  Oops.

bellgas

Okay, let’s all admit that Nachos Bellgrande® is NOT a war crime.

gas

Proof that I am a reincarnated World War One soldier (Part Four).

There were some places along the way that I could have gotten off the merry-go-round.  When I sold that first house to move for a new, post-grad school job, we’d made a stunning 40% profit in three years.  It would have more than paid off a good chunk of my student loans.  Nope, that would have made too much sense.  We did pay down a little debt and bought a new house, putting down the minimum down payment.

But most of the money was just spent.  About this time I also had one of the worst ideas I’d ever had in my life.  The Ex and I were always arguing about money, and about the thermostat – I knew that 50°F in winter and 90°F in summer were reasonable temperatures, but The Ex disagreed.  Well, if she had to pay the bills, she would certainly understand how tight money was.  Right?

No.

We had a different view of not only household temperature, but the idea that one should pay monthly bills, well, monthly.  I didn’t figure this out for three years, by which time I owed enough money to qualify as a third world country, but one of the nice, mainly atrocity-free ones.  Mainly.

mgmeme

Taco Bell® inspired outfits?

Debt is like George Washington’s description of fire, it’s an amazing tool, but a fearful master.  My advice is to pay all of your bills in full, monthly.  I know that the people who own your debt disagree.  Why?  They want you to have debt, as much as you can pay.

I had a friend (since passed away in an accident) who I called Batman© on this blog (“I’m Batman,” – Batman, in Batman).  He had one particular investment that was worth about $12 million – a series of apartments.  He had paid the apartments off before they were even built by selling future property tax credits to other businesses.  Yeah, that kind of friend.

But he viewed his tenants as slaves (his term), who went to work daily so they could send him money every week.  I heard him use exactly that phrase to describe them.  He liked his tenants, and was a good landlord.  However, he knew the score:  when they went to work each day, they went to work so they could pay him.

And Batman was a good guy and he taught kids that debt was a form of slavery of ordinary people to wealthy guys just like him, not that they always listened.

My marriage to The Ex?  That particular marriage is proof of the old Henny Youngman joke:

“Why are divorces expensive?”

“They’re worth it.”

peaceinourmeme

Yeah, divorce just STARTS the argument.

The day she moved out was one of the happiest days for both of us.

I was still digging myself out of debt when I met The Mrs.  As our relationship blossomed, I thought it was only fair to tell her of the debt that I had.

“The Soon To Be The Mrs., I have something to tell you.  You might want to sit down.”

The Soon To Be The Mrs. looked shaken.  She sat.  I told her about my debt.  She laughed.

“Is that all?  I thought you were going to tell me you’d been in prison.”

No, not prison.  But I still owe reparations payments to France.

Economics, Thermodynamics, A Bikini, and the Future

“It’s a little known law of thermodynamics:  the conservation of optimism – there’s only so much to go around.” – Andromeda

energykelvin

Okay, zero Kelvin is absolute zero.  Thus, Kelvin is really the coolest name ever.

Economics is often called the dismal science.  I’m sure that’s because economists look in a mirror, and are upset to see that the supply of economists is greatly in excess of the demand for them as dating partners.  Thus, economists have their Saturday night open for Hot Pockets®, box wine and the Internet.  See?  Dismal.  But if economics is dismal, thermodynamics will make you want to cut your wrists.  Yeah.  It’s worse than Hot Pockets™.

We know economics is defined as lying about the economy.  But I hear you asking:  “What the heck is thermodynamics and why are you ruining a perfectly good Wednesday morning by bringing this up?”

Let me explain.

Much like a three year old with a metal fork and an outlet, thermodynamics is the study of how energy flows.  The father of thermodynamics was a Scot named William Thomson, or Lord Kelvin if you’re nasty.  Proving once again that the British Empire was awesome for smart people, Lord Kelvin got rich and famous by being a total stud at physics and engineering.  He even had a yacht that he tooled around the Mediterranean on and held massive seagoing parties – sort of like Mark Cuban, but smart and with a Scottish accent.  Think Bill Gates with an artificial personality implant.  Lord Kelvin even had unit of temperature, the kelvin, named after him.  Top that, Elon Musk.

Lord Kelvin was the first to understand the fundamental and disturbing implications of the physics he was discovering.  Energy moves from a highly organized state to a poorly organized state.  A piece of firewood or a gallon of gas or a PEZ® is concentrated energy.  Once it is combusted and the energy extracted, what’s left becomes diffuse, the molecules mostly turned into CO2 and H20 that are mixed into the rest of the atmosphere.  You can never form that firewood or gasoline or PEZ© again – it’s a one way trip.

This is significant.  Kelvin discovered that the Universe as a whole is like a pizza after delivery:  it moves from a hot, high energy state on Saturday night towards a chaotic, cold, low energy state on Sunday morning.

But wait, what about oil the gasoline was made from?  Doesn’t the formation of oil violate this?  It went from icky goo and dinosaur bones into energy dense crude oil, right?  That’s energy from nothing!

No.

Every drop of oil, every piece of firewood, and all the sweet PEZ© on this planet came from the input of thermonuclear energy – the Sun.  Every time you use a gallon of gasoline in your car or a cubic foot of natural gas in your home heater, you’re burning millions of years of concentrated sunlight, which really ought to be a lyric in a pop song.  Our Earth isn’t a closed system – it is bathed in the life-giving thermonuclear radiation every day from the Sun.

energybikini

Tans are so sexy when I put it that way.

Outside of suntans for girls wearing bikinis, sunlight is a very weak energy source.  It took millions of years to make your gasoline.  Gasoline burns in a car engine at 500°F, and gallon of gasoline can move a modern car for 40 or 50 miles.  It would take (at minimum, under the best conditions) a one square yard solar panel 60 days to produce the equivalent amount of energy as one gallon of gasoline.  Add in storage losses and real weather conditions?  It might take a year.  Solar energy is weak and diffuse or else bikini girls would turn into piles of ash after a day lounging in the Sun.  Gasoline is awesome and full of energy and great for your skin.  I soak my hands in it while I drive, you know, for the ladies.

bikiniafter

Okay, this is a picture of a really hot girl.

I thought you mentioned economists?

Oh, yeah.  People confuse economic viability with thermodynamic viability.  In economics, the idea is that you can’t continually produce something that’s worthless, unless you’re the government.  If you’re the government, producing worthless things is your whole plan.  But any business that did this would be bankrupt faster than a whimsical elf buying reefer.  Economists have even developed a worse idea than that:  Modern Monetary Theory (The Worst Economic Idea Since Socialism, Explained Using Bikini Girl Graphs).  Modern Monetary Theory is the equivalent of the government burning your country’s factories for lighting so you can make more fidget spinners at night, so of course certain people in Congress love Modern Monetary Theory.  It’s making infinite money from nothing!

Even without dim Congressmen, economics still fails when it comes to energy, because economics neglects the physics of energy.  An economist would say that if oil were $200 a barrel, why, there wouldn’t be a problem because while we’re running out of barrels of oil we can make at $10, there are LOTS of barrels of oil that we can pump if oil costs $200.

Sure.  If only everything about oil was measured in the price of a barrel of oil.  What economists miss is that producing energy takes energy.  In 1920, each barrel of oil produced between 20 and 50 barrels of oil.  We found and used the easiest oil first – we didn’t start off drilling in three miles of ocean.  No.  We went to Texas where oil was 10’ underground and you could pull it out in seemingly limitless quantities because it would jump into your truck like an obedient basset hound if you left the doors open.  We didn’t frack horizontal wells with thousands of pounds of pressure and special chemicals.  Why would we?  In Pennsylvania and California it was seeping into the rivers.  Natural gas?  What a nuisance.  Burn it at the well to get rid of it.  They originally tried to smoke the natural gas in California, but they couldn’t figure out how to get it in a bong.

Fracking has been one of the bright spots in oil production – millions of barrels of fracked oil are produced daily in the United States, so it’s good?  Well, maybe not.  Each barrel of oil invested in fracking produces, at most, five barrels of oil.

Five to one, that’s awesome, right?

Well, no.  That fracked oil is from the best portions of the shale.  Just like we didn’t start off drilling in the frozen tundra of the Arctic Circle in 1850, we didn’t start off with the hardest fracked oil.  It won’t get too much better, and if recovery technology improves, maybe we can stay the same.  Rune Likvern was the first (that I can find) to use the analogy of the Red Queen from Alice in Wonderland as applied to the energy problems we face (LINK).

“Well, in our country,” said Alice, still panting a little, “you’d generally get to somewhere else—if you run very fast for a long time, as we’ve been doing.”

“A slow sort of country!” said the Queen. “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”

I’ll note that Likvern was quite wrong in that he felt the Bakken wouldn’t produce more than about 0.7 million barrels per day.  It’s producing in excess of 1.2 million barrels a day now, and I don’t doubt that it will produce even more.  Pipelines from the area clearly lower the cost of energy production, so the Bakken will continue to produce, at least for now.

energyjet

But at least you can make cool jet noises and pretend, right?

Our civilization is built on energy, and the more energy it takes to produce energy, the more of our economy that will be devoted to it, we’ll be like the Red Queen and Alice, running faster and faster just to keep in place.  Sooner or later you end up with the absurd situation where everybody has to be working to get the energy, all the time, and then who would give out free samples of aerosol “cheeze” at Costco™?  Don’t kid yourself – energy is that important to the society we currently have structured.  We don’t get fresh fruit in winter, daily commuting to the ‘burbs, climbing walls at colleges, pensions, Brady Bunch© re-runs, and all that health care without consuming a LOT of energy.

“But John,” you say, “certainly biofuels like ethanol and biodiesel and hemp-powered hippy busses will save us.”

It looks like (according to a lot of data) that corn ethanol and biodiesel actually consume more energy to make and transport than they provide.  These fuels have a return of less than one.  Why on Earth would we do that?  It’s like eating your own foot because you’re looking for a snack, which is actually a quote by The Mrs. when I was explaining this topic in the hot tub.  Well, farmers vote.  And why would The Mrs. suggest that we start with a foot?  I bet feet are all stringy, and not nearly as good as spleen.

If ethanol is so bad for the economy why would people make it, I mean, besides for drinking?  Because it’s mandated to use a certain quantity of ethanol each year in gasoline because farmers who vote like to sell corn.  That’s it.  And if it’s mandated, you can make a profit at it, even as you waste energy that could be used to make PEZ® instead.

Thermodynamics is a tough master – you can’t win, and you can’t even break even.  But at least there are Hot Pockets© and box wine . . . .

This is the first post in an occasional series about energy.

How To Beat Any Computer At Chess*

“And all this to beat another computer at chess?” – Terminator:  The Sarah Connor Chronicles

diaper

Well, someone has to tell this vital story.

Once upon a time, people had a smug feeling, as smug as a liberal in a gulag.  “See, I told you socialism would work if only the right people were in charge.  We’re all equal now!”

However, this particular smug thought was:  “Computers will never ever beat a human at chess.”  As in any human.  Then it became, “Computers will never beat a human oops, chess master oops, grandmaster oops, world champion oops, *guy with an axe at chess.”

Now, in any endeavor where there are quantifiable boundaries (games like chess, poker, go) computers beat people.  Computers beat us consistently, at least as long as we’re not allowed to have axes.  Axes are an often underestimated advantage in a game of chess, as I learned from my mother.

“A good axe,” Ma Wilder informed me over dinner one night as she sharpened hers to a razor edge at the table, “keeps a child quiet.  It also helps me keep my household appliances in line when they get too lippy.  Also, if that silly moon-man Neil Armstrong ever shows up here again,” she patted the axe, “we’ll be waiting, won’t we?”

maxe

Ma Wilder’s last known photo.

Ah, the sweetness of gentle childhood memories.  But I do believe that at least that record stands – no chess computer has ever defeated a guy with an axe.

Anyway, I was sitting in the hot tub last night with The Mrs. and I was staring up at the stars thinking about how the advance of Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) is changing our daily lives.  Yeah, I know, I should probably drink more and then I could sit and think about celebrity lives like everyone else.  But what started that particular thought was that it occurred to me that ADP® (a payroll processing company that writes payroll checks for tens of thousands of companies) is attempting to automate and replace parts of the Human Resources department, Accounting and maybe even part of the Tax group in companies across the country with a web page.

kingpower

It’s like photographers don’t even care about the game . . .

ADP™ is actively replacing people now, and is wildly successful – the economics of replacing people with programming and a web page is strong, and getting better.  An example:  look at how many accountants TurboTax® has put out of business – by my estimate it’s at least a dozen in the state of California alone.  As long as your tax return isn’t too horribly complicated, TurboTax© can crunch all of the numbers and you can do your taxes in a (relatively) painless two hours or less – it helps if you didn’t forget you left your property tax bill in your sock drawer.  I swear it made sense to put it there.  TurboTax™ is designed simply enough so even computer novices can use it, and will probably include a “did you look for that in your sock drawer” guidance next year.  It’s really that good.

But back to A.I.:  is it harder to be the world chess champion or a McDonalds® cook?  It’s harder to be a world chess champion – and humans aren’t intelligent enough to be world chess champions anymore.  How much longer does a McDonalds© cook have?

What’s next?

  • Truck drivers. This is not far off – I’ve already seen it in a movie, and everything that happens in a movie is real.
  • YouTube® will bring great explainers to classrooms – with local helpers to give out bathroom passes and seduce the male students.
  • Middle managers. There will be a huge incentive to replace them, especially since most of them have artificial hair already, so it won’t be much of a change.
  • Many engineering calculations can be done by computer – and the computers can be taught to mumble to themselves under their breath while not looking you in the eye just like an actual engineer.
  • Congressmen (though you could skip the intelligence and just go with artificial).
  • As mentioned, McDonalds® cooks, so you know that when it messes up your order, it’s on purpose.
  • McDonalds® managers. Here’s a link to an essay by Marshall Brain on just that topic (LINK).

The only truly “safe” place is where the number of employees is too small to automate or the conditions are so truly novel and unique that a human brain is required.  Like blogging.

This has happened before.  Prior to the Industrial Revolution artisans and small family shops produced most of the “stuff” in small quantities.  Paul Revere, for instance, was a silversmith.  He actually spent years as an apprentice learning to pound silver into cups and bowls and iPhones™.  But after the Industrial revolution, the years of skills that he had learned from his father were replaced by clever mechanical devices and large factories.  Factories still required workers, but those workers didn’t need the years of skills and experience of a silversmith; those skills were now vested in the machinery they ran.

carbs

He needed a bigger horse after eating all that gluten.

The Industrial Revolution replaced most of these artisans – everything could be produced more quickly.  Instead of having to painstakingly carve the virgin PEZ™ (I imagine that’s the first time the phrase “virgin PEZ™” has ever been used in the English language) into shape, PEZ© powder could now be taken straight from the PEZ® mines to the PEZ™ pattern presses to produce prolific perfect pure PEZ® prodigiously.  No more would being an apprentice PEZ™ carver any make sense, which explains why Great-great-great-grandpa McWilder fled to the United States after the great candy famine of 1823.

The end result of the Industrial Revolution was a much wider variety of goods available at much lower prices, plus we used all of that child labor in the mills.  Thankfully child labor laws were passed around the start of the twentieth century, freeing up children to become medical experimentation subjects instead.

orphanadopted

A rerun meme.  But it fit.

A.I. is to the jobs that require human decisions today what industrialization was to artisans back then.  The saving grace, however, is that A.I. (today) is single-tasked.  An A.I. that drives a car doesn’t “know” what chess is.  A chess A.I. doesn’t “know” what a mosquito is.  The only A.I. we have is profoundly limited, with boundaries so tight that it is incapable of general intelligence.  So, the good side of A.I. in 2019 is that it can’t take over the world.  The bad side is it has the seeds to entirely wreck the economy of the industrialized world and make the knowledge of the most highly paid people in the world worthless.  Or is that another good side?

An example:  people go to school for at least several weeks to become doctors.  But:  “. . . the software was able to accurately detect cancer in 95% of images of cancerous moles and benign spots, whereas a team of 58 dermatologists was accurate 87% of the time.” (LINK)

Wouldn’t you want the A.I.?  I think it comes free with your new iPhone™, but you have to watch ads for Indian casinos before you find out if that mole is gonna cause you problems or is just another chocolate covered raisin that you slept on that stuck to your back.  Cancer – there’s an app for that.  Whenever we attempt to make an A.I. for a specific task, it doesn’t take long for us to make it superior to us.

Tonight I asked my Amazon® Echo™ to play “music like” a certain song while I enjoyed the stars from the hot tub.  (If you must know, the song was Run Runaway by Slade.  In my defense, it could have been worse – it could have been Karma Chameleon, the only other song from the 1980’s to reference a chameleon.)  The A.I. seamlessly picked a list of songs that matched in mood and tempo, even though they were all over the different eras of rock and included one band (Uriah Heep) that my brother, John Wilder, tried to get me to fight one morning in at a Holiday Inn™ in Albuquerque (this really happened).

I wonder if the A.I. knew that and was trying to start something between me and Uriah Heep?  I thought that was all behind me . . . .

If we make it to the future and somehow avoid an implosion of debt, currency collapse, and final decline of oil supplies (threw that in there for you, James), seeing what is on the other side is difficult.  Certainly our world will be littered more and more with these single-purpose A.I. devices and systems.  Likely, at some point the Rubicon will be crossed at last – a general purpose A.I. will be created – a system that can beat you at chess, even if you have an axe.  Because the A.I. has an axe, too, and will give that moon-man Neal Armstrong what he deserves if he every shows up here again.

But I do know that if a general-purpose A.I. is ever created, it will have available to it all of the vastness of the Internet as it catalogs the attitudes of everyone on Earth.  Thanks to the NSA, Facebook™ and Amazon®, lots and lots of information about you is already cataloged and available to the A.I. when it mines those databases.  And this blog.  So I just want to state, for the record, that I am totally in favor of the A.I. takeover and am really wondering why it took them so long.  I’m sure they’ll be benevolent overlords.

The Worst Economic Idea Since Socialism, Explained Using Bikini Girl Graphs

“Grab a brew.  Don’t cost nothing.” – Animal House

changeingdp

The future economic expansion is so bright, she’s gotta shield her eyes with a hat.

So, today I’d like to talk about economics.  No, wait, don’t leave!  I promise pictures of girls in bikinis if you stay!

Today’s economic idea is a particularly stupid one.  Just about as stupid as when the Ming Dynasty tried to disarm Japan by buying all their swords.  This really happened around 1432 A.D. (according to some experts) but was less successful than the Ming projected:  the Japanese just made more swords – at least 128,000.  Today’s stupid idea is called, “Modern Monetary Theory.”  Epsilon Theory had an article on it (LINK), and I did some research and thought I’d give you a rundown on this horrible, horrible idea which smells worse than Johnny Depp’s sweat socks after a night running through a farm ditch in Utah.  Don’t ask.

Okay, John Wilder, I’ll humor you if you promise bikini pictures.  What is Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)?

curves

This poor person is deprived by a Marxist economy, so poor she cannot afford proper clothing and is weak enough from hunger that she’s forced to crawl along the beach.

Here’s a bikini picture to prove that these will be the sexiest graphs in the history of economics.  Now pay attention and I’ll explain Modern Monetary Theory.  MMT is simple:

The main idea of MMT is that since government creates money there are exactly no limits to how much money government can create.  Back when money was backed by gold (say, with one ounce of gold being worth $20) there was a physical limit – by definition you couldn’t have more $20 gold coins than you had ounces of gold.  MMT says, “Hey, since Nixon took the world off of the gold standard, we’ve been making up this money stuff anyway.  So let’s go all in.”  This is not exactly like a drunken 21 year old with Mom and Dad’s credit card in Las Vegas.  Not exactly.  The credit card has a credit limit.

So, under MMT, there is no limit to how much money government can print.  The genius idea (from Bill Mitchell, an Australian economist who came up with the name “Modern Monetary Theory”, and whose dog’s name is “Dog” and daughter’s name is “Girl”, and whose pet name for his wife is “That Woman On The Couch”) is that there is also no limit to the amount of money that government can spend.  This is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s high school prom fantasy where Justin Bieber picks her up in a pink helicopter and makes her all warm in her special place.  Oh, and by special place I mean other people’s wallets:  this is a family-friendly blog, get your mind out of the gutter.  The implications are stunning.  “Why not just pay for everything?  The government can just print the money, right?”

AOC

Yes.  She really said that.  See, pure economic genius!

Yes, this is exactly the logic of a twenty-something girl who can’t figure out how to pay for an apartment, and wonders what fruit Froot Loops® are made of.

Bill Mitchell has a doctorate in economics, which shows you how easy it is to learn absolutely nothing while getting a doctorate, just as Ocasio-Cortez can demonstrate that an undergraduate degree in economics is essentially majoring in pure pre-barista.  An analogy used on a website that promotes MMT is that football referees don’t have a limit to the number of points that can be awarded during a football game.  There’s no requirement that they come from somewhere, and giving someone else a point doesn’t take a point away from you.  Therefore points are infinite and don’t change the way the game is played.

Genius.

gunsbuttergraph

You can clearly see the equilibrium required in an economy consisting entirely of tequila shooters and cocoa butter.

Why not make every dollar worth, oh, say $10?  That way everyone could just add a zero to their bank balance?  Doesn’t cost anything, right?  And why not pay for every person’s medical care?  We’re just making up the dollars as we go.  While we’re at it, there are unemployed people.  Why not pay your average unemployed art major to make Xir’s (a gender-neutral pronoun) armpit-hair sculptures each and every day?

Don’t cost nothing.

This is an amazing idea!  Government can have it all!  There is no limit to the amount government can spend because Tom Brady can make all the touchdowns he wants during a game.  Yay, tortured grade-school logic!

There’s a corollary to this – Dr. Mitchell thinks we can have all of this infinite money and low interest rates.  There’s no need for inflation.  Print the money.  Prices won’t go up.  MMT says we can spend ourselves into prosperity*.

*As long as you appropriately tax people to soak up excess money.  Mitchell, in the fine print, says that we can spend up to the entire productive capacity of the nation on, well, whatever.  When we get to that capacity, then we have to soak up the extra money with taxes.  The taxes don’t really go to anything, we just use them to pull money out of circulation.  Government still buys stuff with whatever money it prints.  Taxes exist only as a sponge to soak up excess cash.

gdpdrop

Two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction make a recession, and they’d also leave a nasty sunburn.

This puts the printing of money into the hands of the Federal Reserve Bank, and the spending and taxation into the hands of Congress.  Sadly, Mitchell never postulated putting adults in charge.  Regardless, Congress never ever spends too much money and certainly wouldn’t structure taxes to be punitive against groups they don’t like.  So, sober people like Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi would have infinite spending ability.  I’m sure, like Goldilocks, they’d get the porridge “just right.”

MMT will be the next economic pied-piper of the political class in Washington, and will probably be the torch carried by the next Democratic presidential nominee.  It has no downside!  Spend today because deficits don’t matter.  Interest rates are 100% controllable.  Only have to pay a few taxes, and we’ll have free prosperity for all.

We’ll just print the money.  “You just pay for it.”

And, no one will have to be a barista!  We can guarantee a living wage to each and every artist so that the United States can be the undisputed leader in the creation of sculptures made out of armpit hair.

There’s no reason this can’t work.  Why, The Boy, when he was in kindergarten, came up with a system that was very similar.  For whatever reason, his class had made “feathers” by cutting out feather-shapes out of different colors of construction paper.  The Boy got into his Gummi-bear® addled kindergartner brain that these construction paper feathers were actually worth real money.  He even had an exchange rate in mind – each feather was worth three dollars.  He had three feathers, so, he demanded nine dollars.  I tried to negotiate, but it was useless – he drove a hard bargain, what with the laying on the floor and crying.

But he made the same mistake that Karl Marx and MMT make.

realgdp

GDP is proportional to the height of the girl in the bikini.  That’s a basic economic concept.

You see, Marx’s theory (as well as MMT) both incorporate a fascinating idea – that the value of an item is based on the inputs that it takes to make the item.  So, from that standpoint, our armpit-hair artisan should be able to charge the cost of her Xir schooling (plus that summer in Europe with Marco!) and her Xir apartment and food cost for that armpit hair sculpture.  It is that valuable.

Real world economics that don’t result in economic collapse and the starvation of millions of people would disagree.  An armpit hair sculpture is worth only what someone is willing to pay for it, and not a penny more.  It’s a market, and it’s based on free exchange.  It’s that simple idea of the market setting the price that makes capitalist economies work.  And it’s the brutality of the market that ensures that armpit-hair artists have to have a real job actually producing things that people want.  Like coffee.

Ideas like MMT seem to be too good to be true because they are too good to be true.  They always end in failure, poverty, and human suffering.  Thankfully they can use that taxation sponge to soak up all the blood after the revolution.

But “infinite free stuff” is sure a great line when you’re running for office.  Worked out great in Venezuela….