“If Russia mobilizes, there will be a war.” – Nicholas and Alexandria
I saw a billboard advertising clocks the other day – I guess it’s a sign of the times.
- Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
- Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
- Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
- Open War.
The Clock O’Doom has dropped back. For now. The advice remains. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.
In this issue: Front Matter – The Clock Retreats – Violence And Censorship Update – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – The Hungry Days – Links
Front Matter
Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 650 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.
https://wilderwealthywise.com/civil-war-weather-report-previous-posts/
The Clock Retreats
February was on a pace to at least keep the pressure up.
- COVID was causing Canada to rip apart.
- The Department of Homeland Security decided that (see below) that anyone who put forward “misleading narratives which sow discord or undermine public trust in U.S. government institutions” was a threat.
- Truckers in the United States were getting ready to replicate the Canadian example in D.C.
- Biden was less popular than syphilis.
Then? Ukraine. It’s completely stopped the concern about COVID. Corona is . . . gone. All hail Putin – the man who cured COVID. The truckers are still on the side of freedom in the United States, but the press isn’t covering them at all.
From the Civil War 2.0 standpoint, though, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has completely sucked all the oxygen out of the room. It is the only thing being discussed. And public perception is moving quickly. When the invasion was first launched, only 26% of people (mainly Leftists) wanted to have any American action taken.
Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution 426-3 supporting Ukraine, up to and including troops. It’s a resolution, so it’s not a declaration of war. But the Congressmen think their voters support intervention. They’re right – 74% of people in the United States support a “no-fly” zone over Ukraine.
The only way to do that, of course, is for Americans to directly shoot down Russian planes. I don’t think the Russians would take that well at all. I don’t expect a no-fly zone because even Biden isn’t foolish enough to consider that. I hope.
Regardless, the focus of the American public has been distracted. They’ve stopped fighting each other (sort of) and for the moment, Civil War 2.0 is off the menu. This is only a short-term event. As we’ll cover down below (and in much more detail on Wednesday), this reprieve is only short term. The invasion carries the seeds of stress that will ultimately make Civil War 2.0, much more likely.
For now, though, I’m moving the clock back to 10 minutes to midnight.
Violence And Censorship Update
As mentioned above, at the beginning of February, stress was actively added to the system. First, the DHS decided that differing options counted as terrorism. I’m hoping that they don’t see me calling their little note a blatant violation of the First Amendment as being in violation. I mean, who wouldn’t trust a government that doesn’t want alternative views published?
See for yourself:
Certified Genius Adam Kinzinger (just kidding, I’m not sure he’s smart enough to spell his own name) said that “targeted assassinations” were coming if civil war breaks out. I’m just hoping someone finds a room where he can have his coloring books in peace.
TD Bank, in Canada, gave funds for the Canadian truckers to the courts. Why? Having a different opinion means you’re a target. The Emergencies Act gave them the right to do that. As well as cut anyone who supported them, even verbally, out of the modern economic system.
And never forget – the Left wants people who love freedom bankrupt so they can never have a voice again.
Updated Civil War II Index
The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.
Violence:
Violence is flat. February isn’t (usually) a big month for violence, so that’s to be expected. I would expect the next few months to remain calm as well, perhaps turning back up in April.
Political Instability:
Up is more unstable, but instability fell in February. Short month, and the focus is now more outward.
Economic:
The drop in economic confidence turned around this month, mainly on lower unemployment. This is short term.
Illegal Aliens:
This data was at record levels for this time of year. All-time record levels. Again.
The Hungry Days
I’ve tried to model the way that people feel about the economy, politics, and violence above. One thing those models don’t do is predict. Here’s where a prediction is coming in, but it’s easier to predict what’s going to happen than predicting what will happen to a chocolate Easter bunny if you leave it alone in a room with a fat kid:
- Ukraine is a tremendous producer of food for the world.
- So is Russia.
- Ukraine produces a lot of fertilizer and exports it.
- So does Russia.
In the very best case, Ukrainian harvests will be far below normal. If the war continues, the harvests may be nearly zero. Ukraine may export no food – zero. Their industry for producing fertilizer might be wrecked beyond use, or the docks might be destroyed. Or the docks might be in Russian hands.
Russia, even if allowed to export, may choose to export food only to countries that don’t have sanctions against it. Would you choose to export to people that have cut you off, and might not even have a mechanism to pay you, to people who cut off your Netflix®?
What happens if wheat producers comprising nearly 26% of wheat exports in the world . . . stop selling to most people either because they can’t or don’t want to?
The world gets hungry. And if the millions of barrels of oil and billions of cubic feet of natural gas is off the market, the world gets poor.
So, we can end up in a world that is cold, hungry and poor. Quickly. And those are ideal conditions for Civil War 2.0.
LINKS
As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky. Thanks so much, Ricky!!
Bad Guys
https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1490379402005393413
https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1487927709456031749
https://twitter.com/i/status/1484612953672347648
https://twitter.com/i/status/1490144736732188677
https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1489137527659319298
https://twitter.com/i/status/1491418120086454278
https://twitter.com/Networkinvegas/status/1489654175570874368
https://gab.com/DrPaulGosar/posts/107814488157277312
https://twitter.com/NY_Scoop/status/1493116710173429761
https://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/how-bad-is-crime-in-l-a/
Good Guys
https://twitter.com/BettyKPIX/status/1494117970221547521
https://twitter.com/i/status/1494460147246067720
https://twitter.com/i/status/1494431313452941323
https://twitter.com/i/status/1490900444494712834
https://twitter.com/Orwells_Ghost_/status/1491944537299771400
https://roycewhite.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-to-the-black-bourgeoisie
One Guy
Body Counts
https://goodsciencing.com/covid/athletes-suffer-cardiac-arrest-die-after-covid-shot/
https://sf.gov/sites/default/files/2021-01/2021%2001_OCME%20Overdose%20Report.pdf
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10542549/More-Americans-killed-GUNS-car-crashes.html
Vote Counts
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1486032341210480645.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/12/texas-voting-requirements-ballot-rejections
https://www.newsweek.com/film-claims-it-has-video-mules-stuffing-ballot-boxes-2020-election-1679583
https://heritageaction.com/toolkit/election-integrity-toolkit
Civil War…
https://rollcall.com/2022/02/03/civility-downhill-biden-poll/
https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/ross-douthats-civil-war-blame-game
https://bobschaffer-53068.medium.com/how-does-one-grasp-a-civil-war-5101af781ba2
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/opinion/january-6-civil-war.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-close-to-violent-conflict-book-how-civil-wars-start-2022-1
https://slate.com/culture/2022/01/stephen-marche-next-civil-war-review.html
https://www.newsweek.com/our-second-civil-war-opinion-1670408
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2022-02-12/ucsd-prof-walter-civil-war
https://jacobinmag.com/2022/02/new-civil-war-apocalyptic-rhetoric-news-media-far-right-liberals
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/adam-kinzinger-civil-war-warning_n_62022630e4b0725faacec344
https://www.businessinsider.com/billionaire-investor-says-us-seemingly-on-path-civil-war-2022-2
…Is Not The Worst That Can Happen…
http://assets.realclear.com/files/2022/03/1969_NEWSCHELLINGMEMO.pdf
Yep, you’re on target John. We’ve been distracted by a “little Controllable War” (AN OYXMORON do I need a sarc tag here?).
So, the Powers that BE (Not Mr. Sock Puppet but HIS handlers) can bury their COVID Crimes, Discredit the Trucker Protest as anti-American as we be at WAR, aint ya a Patriot? and keep on destroying America.
Hunger and economic destruction, THATS FOR DINNER. You’ll have Nothing and Be Happy Karl sez.
Want a SIDE ORDER of False Flag with that Burger, Sir?
Plant potatoes, it’s a start, figure out who are really your Trusted Friends and Family Members (sadly because propaganda has us divvied up worse the Civil War 1) and get busy doing something useful instead of cheering YOUR Side of Military Foot Ball.
Plant kale, too, because it’s full of vitamins, minerals (e.g, calcium), and because the roving bands of hungry urbanites won’t even recognize it as “food”. Here in mid-Maryland, I’ve got a bunch that rode out the winter and will be harvested soon, as well as seedlings just getting their roots into the garden.
Turnips and rutabagas are also good “stealth” crops. Tomatoes, not so much. Peanuts, a good source of vegetable oil.
Working towards food independence is the way to go – even if not completely achieved. Such efforts could make the difference between starving or just being hungrier than you like. Of course, you need to defend your crops from those that don’t think that far ahead – but that’s a general problem that ANY prepper will have to come to terms with, even if just defending stored foods.
Even food won’t eat kale.
Don’t forget carrots, potatoes, and onions. (Moles hate onions, so plant them around other crops.)
I really think they miscalculated, badly. Today’s post summarizes that . . .
Sir,
Thank you for the cogent assessments.
Over the weekend, our PM implemented the second phase of his carbon tax on fuel. This raised the price/L to 184.9 where we live (about two hours north of Toronto).
This is unsustainable, since up here you have to drive everywhere. The cost of everything just went waaaay up, once you factor in the trucking costs (to say nothing of scarcity).
I suspect the CW2 matrices will resolve themselves not too long from now, once the effects of the fuel prices begin to really intersect with the shortages, esp of food.
It will develop, to wit, a life all its own, and attempts to quantify or assess will become moot.
I am sure you will see it closely enough to be able to assess in real time.
The foregoing of course presumes we don’t witness God’s flashbulb in the meantime.
It will soon be time for good men to do terrible things.
Yeah, I think you’re right about food shortages. I’m going the home garden route, but don’t have enough direct sunlight hours due to trees I can’t take down (HOA, don’t ‘ya know), and neighbors house. And unfortunately, canned sunshine is no solution to this problem – it’ll just make things worse, especially if it’s opened on a wide scale.
I hope we come back from the edge, but I fear that the economy is cooked. I don’t even think Ukraine will help.
Now that the Chinee flu is kaput-in, it’s time to move on to the next synthetic disaster. Let’s see…inner city gun crime epidemic? Naw, that’s old. Murder hornets? BTDT. TP shortages? Sooooo 2021. Ghost guns? Too little traction. LGBT oppression? Beaten to death already. Blinding Whiteness of NFL coaches? Season’s over, ship has sailed. Another feminist march? Nope, the overlarge ladies are still recovering from their last angry waddle.
It seems that there are no good liberal causes left to whine about, now that every toxically masculine villain has been identified and doxxed and there are fruitcakes successfully placed in every level of goobermint.
To paraphrase The Joker, What this [country] needs is an enema.
Hmmm, I do wonder what they’ll confabulate after Ukraine is over? Will there be anything left?
The potential for widespread instability is higher now than any time I can recall, even more than the mostly peaceful African riots in 2020. If the stores are empty and the price of gas gets above $5? People will get spicy overnight.
I’d guess it’ll take gas over $10/gal before we start having tankers and large SUV’s/trucks hijacked for their fuel. Probably.
Likewise, it won’t be until the stores are empty for weeks (in rural areas – more like days in urban areas) – followed by a sporadic supply truck or two that’ll REALLY kick off the food riots.
Buckle up, folks – it’s gonna be a ROUGH ride.
Yes. After the distraction is done, the food bill will hit. It won’t be a happy experience.
I’m old enough to remember when dissent was the highest form of patriotism.
I hope you have the bikini pics ready to go when the “bullets lovingly delivered” graphs are needed, a couple of weeks before Thanksgiving.
Ahhh, yes. Since we’re away from two minutes to midnight I was going to bring those back, but didn’t have time.
“Targetted assassinations are coming if civil war breaks out” – Rep. Kinzinger
“I have NO IDEA who hacked Rep. Kinzinger’s Amazon account, and ordered him 50 Target Employee t-shirt with huge red bullseyes’ on the back. It must have been a computer error.” – Aesop
It’s not an error if he shares them with all his fellow congress critters – and wears one himself. It just makes it easier for us deplorables to recognize our “civil servants”, what with the target symbol clearly identifying who’s who.
Used to be you could tell them by which ones DIDN’T have a mask on during fundraising / out of public view meetings.
I think the concentric circle graphic does a better job at identifying exactly who needs special attention.
Keep in mind: Mr. Kinzinger and his ilk are surrounded by badge-wearing, gun-carrying, tatted-up, ‘roided out Orcs and Orcettes. Remember what happened to Lavoy Finicum and Ashley Babbitt. Plan accordingly.
Let’s hope they place him back in elementary school where he belongs . . . .
Targeted assassinations? That’s harsh language Adam. We just call them Term Limits.
Heh heh. Let’s hope he gets the primary good and hard.
“…a no-fly zone…”
How about a bunch of 2 mile long Shell™ No-Pest Strips® hung at 11,000′ high across The Uknaine border? That’d keep the Rooskies out!
If only we had blimps . . . 🙂
My last link in the link list discussed 1961 American thinking on tactical nuke use in Europe. The premise was don’t use tactical nukes to destroy battlefield targets; instead, use tactical nukes to send a message. I included the link because I personally think the Ukraine-Russia war going tactical nuclear is the greatest danger in the world today – especially if Putin can’t deliver a solid conventional warfare victory to showcase his strength.
Well, lookie here, I may have been on target with that train of thought…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10585325/Russia-facing-total-failure-invasion-Ukraine-Moscow-whistleblower-analyst-claims.html
“The author also addressed the likelihood of Putin launching a nuclear strike against the West, saying it was a possibility. They also wrote that Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, was trying to find evidence that Ukraine had built nuclear weapons to justify a pre-emptive strike. ‘Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will not give anything – this is a defense breakthrough weapon), but with the aim of intimidating others,’ they wrote.”
Manufacturing evidence of non-existant WMDs to justify an invasion takes us full circle back to the future.
https://compote.slate.com/images/14261aa5-3a6f-4f52-af5e-8dc94058fb93.jpeg?width=1440&rect=2048×1365&offset=0x0
We are in dangerous times.
Ricky we are FAR more likely to have a US False Flag Nuclear event than Russia using one.
This Distraction War is way too useful for the Powers that Be to cover their COVID crimes and the oncoming economic disaster. THEY need it to continue as a power tool to control us. Any dissent in times of WAR is treason and that world Like Racist is an emotional and easy to misuse word.
Currently the Russians are doing quite well in their De-Nazification of Ukraine, but you’d never hear that on the Western Media. They are progressing carefully as proven by their LACK of the typical MASSIVE Air and Artillery Russian tactics used in Chechnya and Syria as to keep civilian casualties down.
In case you didn’t NOTICE the Media was complaining about a 40KM LONG Military convoy just standing there for days. The Ukrainians HAVE NO Aircraft nor Artillery left to hammer it, eh?
There would not be a few dozen casualties to cry about there would be whole cities of 40K dead if the Russians were “slaughtering Civilians”.
Russia’s main problem right now is the Human Sheilds the Ukie Azarov Nazi Units are keeping around their fighting positions.
BTW If I see that phony Grandmother with a new name-location and different head wound again I’ll scream. Even the Propaganda is getting sloppy.
Cicero said it best
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.”
Marcus Tullius Cicero
Shutting down our oil production, offshoring our industry and crippling our fertilizer factories with Biden’s EPA rulings is not by accident.
We’ve been sold down the river to China who is watching the USA and Russia bust each other’s chops while they wait for the perfect time to be the BOSS. China’s internal troubles with bad investments and internal power struggles are BEING HELPED by this Russia-US cage match.
China HAS more than a years’ worth of food and stored energy (Oil, etc.) as so THEY can sit out a year of global food and energy troubles almost unscathed. The US does NOT.
Putin is well aware of China’s Scorpion Nature and how they don’t want to buy Russian Oil, Wheat and Fertilizers but to OWN them outright. So thus, he walks the tightrope of not letting the USA get into a Nuclear event and preventing the US from putting a Cuban Missile Crisis on their boarder.
Got more than a years worth of storage foods? Got trusted friends, Got seeds, tools and a good relationship with your God?
A storms NOT Coming, It’s HERE.
I agree the storm is here.
There is a lot about what is going on I do not understand from a military tactics standpoint.
The stationary thirty mile Russian convoy north of Kyiv is just plain weird. There has never been a more obvious or more juicy target in the entire history of human warfare. Are they out of gas, bad tires, mutiny, waiting on their supply train, waiting on their delayed turn in the battle plan, a poison pill trap to try and draw in NATO, what? It is gonna become a death zone if it stays there much longer, once resupply missiles are smuggled in from Poland…
Another thing I do not understand is why the Ukranian Air Force did not drop the 12 mile bridge Russia recently built to Crimea in the first half hour of this war. Even the Ukranian Navy could have gotten into the act by sailing its flagship frigate Hetman Sahaidachny under the bridge and self-destructing her in a gigantic explosion, which would have been a better action than scuttling her as they did. If there was one thing you would really, really want to do, it would be cut off resupply to Crimea to blunt an attack from the south…
But we haven’t even gotten to the main event yet. I am convinced now that America has abandoned both Afghanistan to the Taliban and Ukraine to the Russians in under a year, the Chinese are gonna take over Taiwan next and soon. And that’s when we are really going to be in a literal world of hurt….
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-chips/
Ricky, I like how you think. Here is a thought to chew on.
China is all about the Long View, Business and Money. There is a lot less “hostility” between the two China’s than you think. Rich Families intermarry between China and Taiwan.
I think once the US Umbrella of “Protection” is proven to be an Unreliable mess of bits and bobs that Taiwan and China will have a “Special Relationship” like when Hong Kong was transferred to China.
No Invasion and destruction, too expensive. A Business Deal.
One China with over 80% of the chip manufacturing, we be SO SCREWED. WHAT doesn’t have chips and chips do fail so replacements are critical. Even Modern FARMING Tractors and such use computer chips.
MIchael: I agree with your assessment of the China/Taiwan situation.
We always intended to abandon Ukraine. We created them for that purpose.
https://mate.substack.com/p/by-using-ukraine-to-fight-russia?s=r
The Ukraine isn’t the real objective here. The globalists want to use the economic sanctions to create regime change in Moscow so they can swoop in like the vultures they are and scoop up all those juicy natural resources for pennies on the ruble.
Russia and their stubborn unique Christian culture just didn’t want to play ball with Soros and the Davos crowd.
No idea what their nuclear chain of command is. Not sure that Putin could do it by himself?
If the war continues, Ukraine won’t have a crop, and that’s a severe problem. Russia will have a problem feeding their people, and Ukrainians will starve. In the grand scheme of things, it’s a repeat of the madness of the last two world wars, which may be the intended result. If those pulling the strings are that ignorant, they better hope the focus doesn’t turn toward them, and they find there is no escape in a world that they can no longer control. In the past, hiding was easy. Today, everyone has some sort of electronic footprint, and the trackers can find anyone.
Jess, it’s worse than that friend. Between Russia and Ukraine is over a third of the worlds export Wheat Crops. And almost the same in export Fertilizer. The USA IMPORTS Russian Fertilizer and Oil, or I SHOULD Say USED TOO as Pelosi is busy stopping that too.
The next two are Argentina and Brazil BOTH having serious Weather Issues last year AND this year.
Russia will not starve, they HAVE food reserves, UNLIKE the “Just in Time” USA. Unlike the USA they haven’t sold this year’s crops to China for top dollar. They keep restocking their reserves.
Ukraine is SCREWED, their CIA installed Comedian Puppet actually thinks that the USA will SAVE Him and repair his country. He failed to ask a few OTHER countries we USED to screw with the Russians and such.
The Davos crowd running this US-Russian Cage match isn’t worried about a peasant revolution ever touching them.
As I said earlier GOT FOOD? As in a Years worth?
Yes – 100% the food. Coming soon.
Hey, let’s jusst hang a bunch of 3 mile long Shell® No-Pest Strips™ across the Ukrianian border. That’ll kep those Rooskie planes out!!!
Ukraine v Russia is the new shiny distraction. Y’all need to stop looking at all the other nefarious b.s. and get on board with what “we” want you to focus on. Borders of other countries are important… ours will be ‘o.k.’ because reasons. Don’t concern yourselves with ‘food’ or ‘fuel’ – or even ‘freedom’ – “we” will take care of “you”. (yeah, buddy; magnitudes of ‘taking’ care…) you need to simply go to work, pay your taxes, and trust… do not concern yourself with inflation or recession…
ok, /sarc/ off, I can only stomach so much.
Although us folks may feel like voices in the wilderness, let’s also remind ourselves that all this activity does not change the facts on the ground here. Which, condensed version is: “there’s going to be a fight.” There’s lots of cool and inspiring memes about it. Once it starts, memes will be the last thing you care about, you’ll be busy scrounging ammo… it will not be a short lived event, our enemy here at home is entrenched and will have to be rooted out. Sides have for the most part been chosen, there is no doubt on either side where this ends up – it will either be all of ‘us’ or all of ‘them’. Harden your hearts, steel your nerves, put iron in your will, be steadfast in your spirit, and calmly resolute in your mind. And load mags…
No way out, but through.
History is rhyming again. Tsarist Russia put off several revolutions before succumbing in March, 1917, during WW1. The US has swerved at various points in our recent history from CW, but with the economic and food factors in our midst, along with Brandons’ penchant for screwing up, even though you turned the clock back, we’re there. It’s just slow on kinetic because people are still relatively well fed and can work. Unless the admin can turn back the clock on coming shortages of everything that matters, and economic calamity from debt, it will go kinetic and very hot, very quickly, once food becomes the issue. The regime can’t turn any clocks back, they can’t even admit the Kung-flu hoax, and that they engineered the Ukraine war. Lack of Integrity is what will condemn the US to a living death of CW. It won’t be a shortage of luxuries like coffee and hamburgers. It will be watching children die of starvation.
And you’re right – if it goes kinetic here, there will be starvation, perhaps on half the planet.
The Marxists, Moslems, oligarchs, and their lap dog fed’guv still want Real Trad Heritage America and Americans dead and buried.
Putin and Ukraine did not change that.
CW2 may not be the discussion on the front burner, but that pot is still actually boiling on the back burner.
Absolutely. But, the magician says, ignore what’s up the sleeve . . . .
Brandon will deliver the shining glimmering reeking Chiquitastan to the Schwab-SPECTRE by any means necessary.
Vote all you want, clutch the I voted sticker under the 7500 degree mushroom cloud and chant…Wakanda, yes we can!
Enjoy the burning it all down better because the Great Reset Leap Forward will be worse.
Indeed. I think the gas prices might just be a part of the Great Reset Leap Forward.