“Hey, come on. You divorced? You Separated? She beat you up?” – Die Hard
My book on clocks finally arrived. It’s about time.
- Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
- People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
- Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
- Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
- Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
- Open War.
Volume V, Issue 12
All memes except for the clock and graphs are “as found”.
This is a moving situation, and things are changing quickly. The advice remains. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.
In this issue: Front Matter – Clock of Doom Setting– Violence and Censorship Update – Biden’s Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Talking About The Inevitable – Links
Front Matter
Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 850 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at or before 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.
Clock of Doom Setting
Klaus really rocks that Klingon cosplay?
I’m keeping the clock at stage 8 this month. But last month there was the comment from Aesop (LINK) that I promised to address this month, so here we are. The critical comments are in italics.
You’re still vastly over-selling the case. We’re at a 5 to a 6, at worst.
Things are neither wider nor deeper, just more widely and repetitively reported.
That’s a sign of desperation by the minions of Evil, not dominance.
Things are ugly. (Really ugly, if you want to use 1982, or 1962 as benchmarks. Which is why you shouldn’t.) But they’re not out of control, by any stretch. They haven’t turned up the burner, and the water isn’t anywhere near getting to frog-boiling range. Yet. That may (probably will) change. Perhaps quite rapidly (but that’s been true for ages). But until it does change, you really should throttle this back some.
Calling things an 8, at the current time, is gross overstatement.
This is a 100% fair criticism. I am certain we are, at minimum, at a 6 (People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology).
Why?
I know multiple people who have fled states merely for ideological reasons – the Red folks are leaving the Blue states, the GloboLeftists are leaving the Red states and taking their guns with them, to go and live in states that actually value the Second Amendment.
I just flew into Australia, and boy are my arms confiscated.
The GloboLeftists leaving Red states isn’t as big, because (at least now) the GloboLeftists are tolerated in Red states. You can have a “Biden” sign in your front yard and no one will vandalize the place. This is mostly true.
There is a paradox of these places: If you live in the parts of America where it’s likely that you’ll need to use force for self-defense, you also live in a part of America where the District Attorney will charge you, and the jury will convict you for using self-defense. If you live in the parts of America where it’s unlikely you’ll need to use force for self-defense, you also live in the parts of America where the odds are they’ll give you a medal instead of indicting you. If indicted, the odds are nearly zero that any jury would convict you,
People on the TradRight see that, and they’re moving.
So, 6 is the floor. Is it also the ceiling? My logic says no, and here’s why:
Most Civil War violence is homicide.
A large portion is because the state allows or encourages it to happen. It’s not tanks, it’s not fighter jets, it’s people killing people – US Civil War 1.0 was an anomaly, mostly. Out in Missouri, though, there were many blood feuds that only glancingly involved politics. Ditto the Balkans, where neighbors just started killing neighbors due to ethnicity or due to them being middle class. Ditto the Indonesian civil war, where it was mainly just homicides based on opportunity, not based on political reasons.
Dali’s brother was a really good boxer. His name was Muhamma.
Regardless, there is currently an increasing amount of violence that is well tolerated, as long as it is perpetrated on people who probably vote on the Right. The January 6 protesters were charged in ways that strain any sort of claim of fair justice. The actually violent and felonious Black Lives Matter™ protests and Antifa® protests had nary an arrest, and of those arrested, the punishments for things like assault with a deadly weapon, attempted murder, and actual murder were not handed down. Most protesters (of the GloboLeft variety) were just ignored.
They got the message. Even now, violence is 100% tolerated by the GloboLeftElite Soros District Attorneys and their “catch and release” program for violent felons. In 2011, Syria released all of the violent prisoners to act as a counterbalance to peaceful protestors. This is a known strategy. Civil War 2.0 won’t look like Civil War 1.0, and it will be a far, far dirtier thing, and we may never see a single uniformed conflict.
Where do football players get fresh uniforms from? New Jersey.
In my mind, that brings us to an 8. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
I see Aesop’s point, and, though we may differ, I’ve got to make my call, and I’m sticking with an 8. If we see any meaningful attempt to back down the violence in GloboLeftist areas, I’ll rachet it down accordingly.
Violence and Censorship Update
Let’s start with Elon Musk. A judge in some place called Australia seemed to think that Australia controls the media in the United States, and, heck, maybe interstellar space for all I know. She ordered Elon Musk’s company, X™ to stop showing a video of an adherent of the Religion of Peace stabbing a Christian priest during a sermon. Elon (predictably) told her to shove it.
Microsoft® has likewise decided that games should only have women in them that look like sacks of potatoes. The good news is that Amy Schumer isn’t doing much, so she should be okay to step in as a model.
And, if you thought that you could own and operate a business and not hire criminals? I guess you didn’t figure on 2024. A convenience store is being sued by the Justice Department for not hiring criminals. I didn’t know Hunter needed a job that badly.
And, if you thought that having a bridge named after the guy who wrote the National Anthem was not unreasonable, well, they’re trying to disappear him from history.
Finally, the FISA program was not only extended, but expanded. Now the NSA has the power to look into, essentially, the whole Internet. Go figure.
Biden’s Misery Index
Let’s take a look to see how we’ve done this month . . . .
Yup, up again. And it’s gonna get worse.
Updated Civil War II Index
The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.
Violence:
Violence is down, expected with cooler weather. Probably quiet until June or July.
Political Instability:
Up is more unstable, and it is slightly up. I expect this fall to be a bit more crazy.
Economic:
Economic numbers are down a bit. But prices are up.
Illegal Aliens:
Second Highest April. Ever. But the normies are waking up.
Talking About The Inevitable
One of the clues that people are going to have a divorce is that they start talking about it. A recent Rasmussen Reports® poll shows that:
- 41 percent of voters are thinking that there is a new civil war due sometime in the future,
- 16 percent felt it would occur in the next five years,
- 37 percent of voters felt civil war is more likely if Biden remains in the White House after the election,
- 36 percent of Alaskans want to leave the Union,
- 31 percent of Texans want to leave the Union,
- 29 percent of Californians want to leave the Union, and
- 28 percent of New Yorkers want out.
When I started writing the Weather Report in 2019 (this is the 60th monthly issue!) I stated that I felt that the very first possible time that a civil war would occur would be 2025. I felt the halfway point and most likely time would be 2032, and the latest date would be (I think this is right) 2037. There are reasons for those years, tying to several large trends in economics, world power dynamics, hordes of illegal aliens, and other demographics.
Back in 2020, Scott Adams predicted we wouldn’t have a civil war in the near term. His reason? “We don’t want one.” I think, four years later, we’re getting closer to wanting one. Remember: it doesn’t require everyone to agree to a civil war, what it requires is a committed minority. John Adams, who knows more about this than I do, noted that he thought about a third of Americans were in favor of the Revolution, which was just a civil war that we happened to win. Adams felt another third didn’t want war, and another third were loyal to the king.
The numbers above are showing that we’re at danger levels of support for a major change, and I think next year takes us into the period where civil war becomes possible – with the peak probability still sitting at 2032. Here in 2024, though, it’s a nice, cool night and tomorrow’s weather will be perfect. A storm may be coming, but tonight I’ll prepare. And enjoy.
LINKS
As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky. Thanks so much, Ricky!!
Bad Guys
https://twitter.com/TTEcclesBrown/status/1779532832056180756
https://twitter.com/TTEcclesBrown/status/1776630901277126892
https://twitter.com/i/status/1779690452398330155
https://twitter.com/i/status/1782456547525685499
https://twitter.com/GangHits/status/1784616636735004918
https://twitter.com/i/status/1783536135085388174
Good Guys
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0gKDgYHvRA
https://www.newsweek.com/unc-frat-brothers-flag-donations-update-1897055
One Gal
https://twitter.com/Red_Pill_US/status/1779348493490131392
Body Count
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLGuBnfbMAA2xEN?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLGFWhwXsAAinOO?format=jpg&name=900×900
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-21st-century-red-state-murder-crisis
https://www.uncoverdc.com/2024/04/09/transgender-surgery-in-military-paid-by-taxpayers
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1775928212805103945
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ar-BB1llO5L
Vote Count
https://twitter.com/Rogue_Outlaw17/status/1775851708436078957
https://www.uncoverdc.com/2024/04/24/poorly-managed-toddlers-are-running-elections
https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1778840719387488583
https://twitter.com/amrenewcitizen/status/1774806979367641474
https://www.newsweek.com/fani-willis-dealt-blow-new-testimony-1886322
https://twitter.com/CannConActual/status/1773089354635698446
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1774799076707422307
https://twitter.com/TrueTheVote/status/1775625397431877718
Civil War
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/alex-garland-civil-war-explosive-083228878.html
https://americanmind.org/salvo/extremism-on-the-ballot/
https://alt-market.us/the-political-left-has-proven-beyond-a-doubt-that-they-are-authoritarians/
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/america-politics-divided-polarization-data
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2024/04/06/america-is-hurling-toward-a-full-blown-hot-civil-war/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/26/what-a-real-civil-war-would-do-to-the-us-economy/
We wuz kangs and Sheetz!
I guess the Sheetz hit the fan?
How did you write the entire thing without addressing what is happening on college campuses? Of course we don’t want civil war. 600K people died in the War of Northern Aggression. Bracken posted this on twitter. These people want “revolution” . These “protests” have little to do with Israel and Palestine. It’s and excuse for radicals to have a Mao style revolution.
https://twitter.com/Matt_Bracken48/status/1787457489509789959
That’s next month’s content, it just went “hot” in May.
I tend to agree with Aesop. Things SEEM to be heating up, but that’s the FedBois and other agencies, in cooperation with the NGOs of Leftist Bent (pretty much ALL of them), trying to spike the Fear Centers in the MAGA brains, and provoke another confrontation.
Our time, and energy, is better spent with local activity:
– Get to know your neighbors. Quietly make an assessment of them: skills, political leanings, work/associations, prep situation (could you call upon THEM in an emergency, or will you be carrying them when TSHTF?).
– Volunteer in your community: neighborhood watch, volunteer fire, ARES (that’s a ham thing, you only need a technician’s license and willingness to turn out when needed), church activities, etc.
– Don’t just vote, volunteer for poll watcher/poll worker/party GOTV activities. Volunteer to sign up voters. And keep an unofficial eye out for sketchy activities surrounding voting sites/counting sites.
Great points all. Here? If Trump doesn’t get 80%, we’ll know people have been goofing with the numbers.
More importantly, don’t just head for the ‘boonies’. If you are open to moving, spend the time to check out the communities, and focus on those where you already know people.
If choosing a location, do NOT choose a remote, insular place, unless you have a history there already. There are worse things than being in the city, and that’s being the better-off guy in a town where you have no allies. We spent 3 years living in a very small town, and while I and the kids did make friends, my husband, who commuted long distances, did not. And, our house and yard were way too big for me to keep up, but we were too poor to hire help. So, we were THAT house, looking ragged and run down.
A mid-sized small town/city is better. Spend the time walking around town, introducing yourself, and take the time to get involved in 1-2 activities – and, yes, that probably means a church, if you can find one that suits you (or is bland enough to allow you freedom to be a ‘sometimes’ attendee and not hassle you overmuch about following doctrine.). The point is, you need to slot yourself in some known categories – solid citizen, good guy who volunteer his rare free time, belongs to that church that is not a ‘fringe’ one. And, you need to take care of your home – mow the lawn regularly, plant flowers (perennials are great – a lot of work at first, then just weeding and occasional spacing out), and vegetables (use what you can, and make sure you drop the extras off at local spots – food banks and other places where people are accustomed to seeing free food displayed. If you don’t know where, ask around to find out who could put it to use.
Save all your strong opinions for online forums. Let OTHER people tell you theirs. Your goal is to gather info, not give it out. By doing so, you will – eventually – find the trustworthy allies you seek.
Great points. I always roll my eyes at people who think they’ll somehow escape catastrophe by moving out to the woods. If the enemy wins, they’ll come for all of us eventually. It’s only delaying the inevitable, unlike finding and helping a resilient community.
We transplanted fifteen years ago, and we’re finally not the new kids on the block.
I hear Gary is great for folks like them if they want to stay in Indiana.
Living in a deep red state like Indiana, I often see comments from lefties that live here bitchin about how backward and red-neck we are because abortion is mostly illegal and you can’t buy weed legally. As I remind them, no one is stopping them from leaving. Illinois is just a few hours to the west. Sadly very few have taken me up on the suggestion.
‘Deportation’ is a beautiful word.
Evacuation is a better one.
‘deportation in place’
I hear Gary is great for folks like them if they want to stay in Indiana.
You know, I wonder whether Divorce Contagion would be a factor in countries, not just individual couples?
One of the surest signs that your marriage is in trouble? You or your spouse is good friends with someone who is divorcing.
Look to other countries – are they splitting up into regional partisan factions? If our Elite have decent relations with those countries, perhaps we ought to worry.
I think the bigger deal is the economic conditions/elite overproduction/misery are contagious.
Check out the CD interest rates at banks. For the last year, the highest rates are for CDs that expire this November. That’s not just for one bank. I’ve been tracking three different banks’ rates. They all show massive uncertainty and pessimism about the election.
I’ve never seen anything like this before.
There was a Fed program that expired in January (I scribbled about it) and banks are thinking the printing presses start for them then???
What # you’re at depends on where you live. Obviously, if in most of ID, MT, UT, etc., it’s a 5-6. Here in SC, it’s mostly 6. But…all it takes is another Rodney King, Dylan Roof, St. George Floyd or Ferguson, and it’s an 8 or 9 overnight, given our large Afro populace, plus unknown crisis actors/Antifa waiting in the wings.
And our local press is itchy hot to start a race war over minor incidents. Recently a pair of cops shot a black guy who came out to harass a tow truck guy who was repo’ing his car. He was threatening the tow guy with a drawn pistol. The guy pointed his flashlight (that was attached to a pistol) at the cops when they announced. So they shot and killed him. An obviously good shoot. But the press went nuts.
We likely came close on that one. It follows a similar profile to others for the past several years. It will blow someday.
Here in the Great White (not so much) North, things are looking…well, less than fun in the future.
Justin is apparently so concerned with Canadians (primarily white ones) leaving the country in search of better places to live, he is considering imposing a 25k exit fee…
Currently, before our senate is Bill S233, which would deny employment insurance benefits to the unvaxxed (because if you’re unvaxxed you won’t help with climate change or something).
Also is Bill C273, which pertains to denying seniors their Old Age Security and Canada Pension benefits if they are unvaxxed (my 80-year-old mother is one such).
For every job the feds created last year, they imported 51 immigrants. We have just shy of a million foreign students here (where they are all living is a mystery no one is uncovering).
Prices are just… unsustainable.
And when we look to see how stand events in the Union to our south, we see that our cousins are having a serious time of it. August in Chicago may not be so great this year, and then there is November 5 to remember… in amongst all the other things besetting our dear friends in the US.
It can’t go on much longer. Not without serious population declines.
MinC
Down here, we’ve HR 6090, which will ban the New Testament. Democracy is a curse and the so-called Enlightenment a mistake.
Pretty sure Republicans voting to ban the New Testament while Democrats vote not to ban it is one of the signs of the Apocalypse, along with human sacrifice, cats and dogs living together. Mass hysteria!
The big US beat Justin to the punch on the exit tax thanks to a prior Republican Speaker of the House (Boehner) leader. Here, leaving and renouncing citizenship will cost you 50% of your assets and continue to tax you for whatever you make for another 5 years. Your $25K is a deal.
Good analysis of the sittiashun. I’d say about 81/2 right now, given that one side (guess which one!) already has war structures and plans in place. Increasingly they are afraid afraid afraid and increasingly they provide sound reasons for that pervasive fear.
8 is common violence used by gubbermint against, well, anybody they don’t like. Certainly New Amerika has been there for two decades, as the courts long ago were infiltrated, over-run, and then weaponized by the Woke-Fem Politburo. Watched it happen from the inside-out.
The present lawfare against Mean Orange Man is a drop in the bucket compared to the past decades of false accusations leveled against men by females who understand that their word is law. Ole J.J. Bachofen would shout, ‘Sanctitas Lives!’.
Now you might not count that as ‘organized violence against perceived enemies’ but when it’s your ass the paid enforcers toss into the cement hole under the Justice Building, you’ll think different fast.
Again, who gets charged with crimes in New York? In Seattle? In Portland?
They are Legion —
Karenheit 451
https://i.imgur.com/bMm0Ag2.png
I’m totally stealing that, and will find use for it anon.
Brilliant.
Karen my ass you tube black women fast food Lakisha is a problem
‘And’ is a useful word.
Is it Peak Karen yet? lol Look upon KareNation. She Kares!
Leftists: you can’t do a criminal b/g check as a condition of employment. It’s racist.
Also leftists: no one can sell a gun without a criminal b/g check. Guess that doesn’t apply to stolen guns though. That’s probably racist too.
Steve S6
They really hate guns, because that’s what stops us from being ground down.
>You can have a “Biden” sign in your front yard and no one will vandalize the place.
Yet. I have long advocated for paying attention to yard signs during election seasons. People who keep up their lawns and have nice dogs can suddenly put out a sign, for example, here in Ohio, for the mutilation and murder of children.
Come the revolution, you always shoot traitors first.
Oh, they leave the signs up. And the bumper stickers on.
“The actually violent and felonious Black Lives Matter™ protests”
Actually the police did have a very strong response in Minneapolis to the Buying Large Mansions protests, including Nat Guard armored vehicles and firing paint balls at violent criminal bad people:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LozQg0oX-Gw
Oh wait, they were firing paint balls at law-abiding Whites in the suburbs, even though the restriction didn’t apply to them being on their porches (not that such a restriction to stay off their own lawns should apply either.)
===
“Women in gaming”
If a woman is complaining about men looking at them, they are humble-bragging to other women. If a woman is complaining about unfair beauty standards, she is coping.
A classic from gamer-gate:
https://i.ibb.co/3y8m8xN/feminist-hypocrisy.jpg
===
“I stated that I felt that the very first possible time that a civil war would occur would be 2025. I felt the halfway point and most likely time would be 2032, and the latest date would be (I think this is right) 2037.”
The problem with the early mark is a lot of it depends on what kind of organizing people have done offline, where by definition we can’t see it. If we could see it, so could the feds (thanks NSA!) and 1/3 of their membership would be feds trying to convince them to kidnap Taylor Swift. If we have a decent number of offline groups of like-minded cw pre-enactment enthusiasts, it could kick off at the next Schelling Point. President Michael Obama? Particularly heinous minority-on-White crime in the heartland? Republicans voting to ban the Bible while Democrats oppose? Oops, scratch that last, already happened. Might have been one of the addendums to the signs of the apocalypse though.
I used to agree with that later mark, based upon demographic change. However, research I’ve done shows that CWs rarely happen except when a society passes between free and unfree. Free and unfree societies almost never have major social unrest, it’s only the transition from one to the other, in either direction. I think we’ll be about complete in our transition far sooner than 2037, based upon increasing internet control, completely ignoring legalities re: jailing of regime enemies, economic control, etc. etc.
interesting data- large chunks of the population support a dictator, as long as it’s a dictator in line with their ideologies who will stick it to the Bad Guys. table 2 & table 3
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/new-initiative-explores-deep-persistent-divides-between-biden-and-trump-voters/
We’re in that zone now (free/unfree). It’ll be danger zone by then.
Unlike last month, we are at an 8 now.
On some college campuses.*
Which is a fraction of a fraction of 1% of America.
The part we used to call the circus sideshow.
Almost the entire rest of the country remains at a 6.
And were push to come to shove, people would burn the troublesome college campuses to the ground and throw the students and their moron professors bodily onto those pyres, rather than let that rot spread, long before they’d let Everytown turn into Columbia or UCLA. In a better world, that would already have begun. ‘Twould be a glorious sight to behold, and the continental mean IQ would rise 20 points in days.
You should have ticked the violence meter up, because the sanctioned (nay, welcomed) pro-Hamas rallies were, indeed, “justified based on ideology”.
Until TPTB everywhere saw Biden’s re-election poll numbers dropping like the Hindenburg after the fire started as a direct result, worsening by the minute, and were forced to swoop in with incredible rapidity, in a feat that they could have managed anytime, within five minutes’ of the initiation of those same protests.
(Total number of stories on ABCNNBCBS or 57 lickspittle newspapers all owned by the same three-person enemedia cabal explaining why the protests all near-simultaneously erupted, and why and how they automagically near-simultaneously were squelched – by widely disparate and geographically-separated PTB – to date, continues at: ZERO. Only public info burped out the obvious fact that these were catered astro-turfed “spontaneous” protests by outside agitators, and being the official house organs of Lenin and Stalin since 1917, Toto the Enemedia Dog won’t be pulling back the curtain anytime soon; they know where their bread is buttered.)
Like the illegal immigration which could be turned off like a tap in perpetuity if there was any official will, that’s the textbook definition of “officially sanctioned violence”. First against the campuses, and then against the agitators.
And as lamont cranston noted in earlier comments, the move from 6 to 9, anywhere, can be a matter of minutes to hours.
The problem isn’t how fast the car goes. It’s how quickly it accelerates, who’s behind the wheel, and how senile and moronic he and his minion/puppeteers are.
That’s the thought that keeps me up at night, and the reason I don’t have enough 3AM friends with a woodchipper and a backhoe, nor sufficient #10 and olive drab canned goods, and neither do you.
*(We have seen it noted elsewhere that Kent State had no problem with protests recently, leading inescapably to the conclusion that a whiff of .30-06 avails for at least 54 years, and counting. Mind you watch and see how long before this knowledge becomes widely remarked upon, and how long after that before it becomes the default solution, whetherad hoc or official.
Dulce et decorum est.)
Aesop – Apperciate your understanding of the Deep South. I graduated from Miss. State with the children of the jury foreman of the Emmmitt Till trial.
A litle background. The Friday after St. George OD’ed, Antifa riots on King Street in Charleston. The Apple Store got cleaned out. The high end (VERY, VERY HIGH END) antique stores didn’t as the owners hired heavily armed rent a cops to protect.
It all ended during Saturday Happy Hour at Hall’s Chophouse ($$$$) on North King. Fiva Antifa thugs started harrassing a young white couple at the bar. Jim Stuckey (Clempson/NFL DT) came to their defense, was tripped and they were kicking him. Bartender pulled out his .38S&W, shot it into the ceiling, pointed toward them and said “You’re next.”
Word got around fast, and no rioters within 15 minutes. Anywhere. We don’t have that problem in Beaufort. Probably due to Parris Island being 5 miles from Downtown, the Naval Hospital in Port Royal (tons of retireees here) and the Marine AFB up US 21 that loses an F-35 from time to time.
I’m sure that blue-on-white flag, six-point star outfit over in the Levant can use some highly-trained ER/ICU nurses, sir. Right of return, y’know?
“JOOOOOOOOOOOOOS!!!!!!!” – James, every day of his life
AKA “How To Tell Me You’re Typing That In Your Klan Hood Without Telling Me You’re Typing That In Your Klan Hood.”
Biggest bummer for you: not Jewish. Not even close.
When you come back from looking for Jews under your bed, or fapping to your copy of Triumph Of The Will, give a holler.
You must miss being able to post on Stormfront. Tell us all about it sometime.
Stop shooting right.
Friendly fire returned with a smile.
And he’s not right in any way, including in the head.
Hmmm, I’m imagining an isotherm chart. “Sunny with a chance of homemade napalm in the forecast today . . .”
Guess that fits the label.
Moth flakes and coconut or palm oil. Just saying.
It helps people be warm for the rest of their lives.
The government welds your door shut and then outlaws starting a business and living in McMansions, cars, skyscrapers, and tiny homes.
The governments bans body odor and then closes stores and bans delivery services.
The state closes bathrooms and then outlaws public urination.
The government closes the border and then arrests tourists for overstaying their visas.
https://leohohmann.com/
You are on point. His track record sucks
As usual, Aesop is a mouth breather. Ask him how we were all going to die from covid. I bet he doesn’t bring up that call anymore. Which is only the tip of the iceberg of him getting things just about as wrong as they can be. So if he’s claiming you’re on the wrong track, you’re bang on target.
Or Ukraine
Wow, you guys all came on the same day. Was there a troll bus from jail, or did you all steal a car?
Since you insist on talking about nothing related to JW’s post, a couple of brief reminders for you.
1) I told you up front COVID would have, at worst, a 1-5% death rate. First wave was right around 3%. Overall to date, including the far less virulent 3rd/4th/5th waves, 1.1%. Nailed that one. Thanks for playing, Ike. Looks like reading comprehension isn’t your game. So you obviously can’t remember, or never read what I wrote. You Could Look It Up. It’s all right where I left it.
I also told you the tertiary and quarternary effects (you’ll probably need to Google those before somebody reads the rest of this to you) would be far worse than those of the pandemic itself.
So, how’s Emperor Poopypants’ regime workin’ out for ya these days? Nothing but blue skies and sunny days, huh? Do tell.
2) Ukraine:
So, Zelensky’s been executed? Russian troops are in Kiev? The citizenry in both countries is rejoicing?
Post a link to all that. Should be easy, right?
What? None of that’s happened?!? But, Adam said…
NATO has added all of Scandinavia in response, including Sweden, which has been a neutral country for over 100 years?
And Russia has lost 50% of its ground combat strength, including 75% of its experienced troops, in only 2 years, fighting against a country 1/4th its size, and 1/10th its military strength?
While suffering more casualties in 2 short years than the US suffered in Vietnam in 10 years, or Iraq and Afghanistan in 20 years, combined?!?
Vlad-poleon, indeed.
You can not only tell us what flavor the windows are on the short bus, you can probably tell us how Vlad’s bottom tastes.
Better luck on your next attempt at a dig, cat toy.
Don’t be a hater. Just try reading and thinking. And take a chance on the 4th grade. You’ll thank me later.
Don’t forget to take Beavis and Butthead with you when you leave.
The blitzkrieg nearly succeeded, but ultimately failed. Maneuver warfare failed in the face of modern antitank and antiaircraft weapons, not to mention drone based ISR. So, because they’re not completely stupid, Russia switched to a remarkably successful war of attrition, in which they have destroyed the first three armies Ukraine has raised. Russian losses have been about a third of Ukraine’s, and Russia has been mostly using territorial militia, convicted felons, and conscripted Muslims as cannon fodder. And all this without ever using more than 20% of their active duty military forces in the conflict.
Russia is now producing munitions and equipment in excess of need. They are building up new stock while Ukraine is utterly dependent upon rapidly depleting NATO stores. And the Russian economy is improving remarkably quickly by just about every measure.
Those of us who served in the Army are smart enough to see and understand this. We don’t really expect jar heads to understand anything above tactics. 😉
Russia has also destroyed the first five armies of their own raising.
As John McLane said in Die Hard “Oops!”
Russia has also been doing so well that Vlad-poleon has sacked a baker’s dozen senior army commanders since this self-inflicted debacle started (not counting the ones who shot themselves in the head three or four times, or the ones who fell out of 10th story windows wide open in the middle of Russia’s winter), and they weren’t commanding conscript armies of deadbeats when they started. It’s just all they can scrape up now.
Russia is building up more sub-standard equipment, to equip their substandard troops, to feed into the meatgrinder. That’s what Russia has done, pretty much since ever. And with two full winters come and gone, waiting for Ukraine to starve and surrender has proven a forlorn hope for Russian apologists.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has been “utterly dependent” upon NATO stores since May of 2022, which I noted specifically at the time. It’s been a double-edged sword from the outset. The Russian economy, by contrast, is tottering on one leg, and Russia will be a pariah state in every sense for decades because of this pointless attempt to reform the deconstructed Soviet Empire. Putin has literally set Russian relations with the rest of the world back 100 years.
The same people who are pimping for Russia now are the same ones that swore the Russians were ten feet tall – right up until five minutes after their entire empire collapsed in 1991.
Both countries can lose that war, but Russia can never win, for any value of that word but “pyrrhic”.
When you’re cheering on the country that Shrillary and Obozo colluded with to smear Trump, and jeering the country that Biden threatened and blackmailed, you should double-check your hole card.
No, I consider it a very fair question – and he’s been very right on a lot of stuff. I don’t agree with him on everything, but I also don’t agree with anyone on everything. I read your stuff and agree with you on more things than not, and with Aesop on more things than not.
Ricky’s referenced site under body-count, http://www.thirdway.org, tries to blame the higher murder rate in Red states purely on politics while completely ignoring the racial component of the differences. His other site, pbs.twimg.com, clearly shows at county level (instead of state level) that the issue is clearly racial. I was surprised to see that Hispanic and Indian regions superficially appear to be as bad as black regions.
Conclusion: When CW 2 starts, US will split at least 4 ways: White Leftist, White Cons, blacks, Hispanics. And it won’t be statewise. Likely Cities vs surrounding areas in the South. NE will be a mess and likely block by block.
Interesting, that no one except the locals in the SoCal area are aware that blacks despise Hispanics and vice versa.
I do wonder if the leftists will try to fake the election by as much as would be required to reseat Joe Camel. Even they admit it will start CW 2.
I think the Leftists white guys will be (essentially) a non-entity.
The White Leftists have input because they are a majority in Seats of Power; DC; State Capitols; Press Boxes. And likely head the military and numerous state militia after Brandon’s reign. I don’t see leftists lasting long, but seats of power have proven staying power in times past, unless there is a coup, in which case, their concentration makes short work of change in gov.
Every major city from coast to coast will be house to house and room to room in a civil war.
You’ll find neither red nor blue hives anywhere, except in flyover country, far from cities over 100K population. A 10% insurgency (like in NYFC, Bashstun, or D.C.) looks like Bosnia. A 60/40 one (like L.A.) looks like Cambodia 1975 or Rwanda. Except this time, the minority side has most of the hardware.
The rest of them will be Sarajevo until winners emerge, and the die-off would have more to do with that than actual combat strength will, IMHO.
What gets interesting is if/when other players (Mexico, Canada, and distant haters) start thinking that would be a good time to move in.
Then it turns into a pure Death Match.
And blacks and Hispanics aren’t going to like the calculus when your skin becomes your uniform.
A civilization-wide xenophobic immune response is going to make Antietam and Gettysburg look like a pie fight at a church picnic by comparison, and unlike the Indian Wars, there won’t be any reservations afterwards when this next round is over.
Good analysis. Another factor is likely the existing gangs. They already have a tight-knit nucleus of violence. They could be some of the pockets of power in the cities. Wonder how the inter-gang dynamic would work out. Can’t imagine their mindset would allow cooperation.
TheOrganicPrepper.com has a writer with the pen name of Selco, who writes about his experience in the aftermath of the fall of Yugoslavia. Neighborhoods where the 3 dominant cultures freely and politely interacted turned into predominately ethnic wars overnight, with roving bands of murderous hunters at all hours.
As John says, the cities will be zombie nightmares within days of a major uprising.