“I don’t like violence, Tom. I’m a businessman.” – The Godfather
People say violence is never an option, but when I’m in a room with a Kardashian, well, let’s just say it’s option number one.
- Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
- People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
- Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
- Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
- Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
- Open War.
Volume V, Issue 6
All memes except for the clock and graphs are “as found”.
This is a moving situation, and things are changing quickly. The advice remains. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.
In this issue: Front Matter – New Achievement Unlocked: Acceptable Violence – Violence and Censorship Update – Biden’s Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Are We At War? Revisited – Links
Front Matter
Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 820 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.
New Achievement Unlocked: Violence Acceptable
One of the hallmarks of the countdown to Civil War 2.0 has always been: Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology. We’ve debated about where to put it, but it’s been there since the very start of the countdown/index. This month a Constant Reader sent me a link to American Partisan where the article discussed exactly that (LINK).
When a high government official formerly in charge of extrajudicial executions calls for the extrajudicial execution of an elected official to a national body, you might live in a banana republic.
- 31% of Trump supporters and 24% of Biden supporters indicated that democracy is no longer viable.
- 41% of Biden supporters and 38% of Trump supporters thought it was acceptable to use violence to stop their opponents.
Yes, I know that technically we’re not a democracy anyway because the Founding Fathers felt that was little more than mob rule, but it looks like a huge chunk of people are flat done with the idea of voting with ballots and are ready to start voting with fists, clubs, and bullets.
Except against women. Or people who identify as women. Or Leftists. But I repeat myself.
This, sadly, is something that many have expected as the government loses the legitimacy that it enjoyed during most of the history of the country, with only 16% (according to Pew®) trusting the government to do way is right most of the time.
As I’ve mentioned before, some of the best advice I’ve ever heard about divorce was, “If you don’t want a divorce, don’t talk about one.” Here, large numbers of the population are currently contemplating divorce, and contemplating not using a lawyer to get what they want, since 41% of Trump supporters and 30% of Biden supporters are in favor of secession based on political lines.
Although there is a flaw in the Leftist strategy.
Even when I started this blog, that seemed unlikely. Although the maps show Red states and Blue states, the reality is that in 2016, many of them were purple – a roughly equal mixture of both.
Now we see that people really are moving from one state to another for purely political reasons. If you’re on the Right, why live in a state that will criminalize you because you own guns? If you’re on the Left, why live in a state that won’t let you kill all the babies you want to kill?
Violence and Censorship Update
Hillary Clinton, that bastion of common sense and moderation, noted this month that people who supported Donald Trump need to be “formally deprogrammed”. If you think the Left is up for a truce and to forgive, that would be a mistake.
Proving that a Leftist is as loyal as a scorpion, well, read the note below.
But, good news for her! She can update her Tinder® profile.
In a further example that we are at an 8. on the steps to Civil War 2.0 (list above, more story below) Portland has stopped trying to look good for a date, and is now at the stage that they’re eating frosting straight from the plastic container with a spoon. The cops have given up.
The EU wants Elon Musk to censor comments on X®. The only problem? Like taking a woman to a restaurant, the want Elon to figure what they want him to censor without telling him.
Regardless of how you feel about, well, anyone, the First Amendment exists. Except for certain subjects as the former governor of Mumbai points out below:
And Ron’s not far behind:
Lastly, Canadians seem to enjoy a few freedoms. At least today:
Biden’s Misery Index
Let’s take a look to see how we’ve done this month . . . .
Yup, up again. Looks like Biden is going for the record. Who says he never gets anything done? I hear he was even on hand to thank one of his financial supporters.
Updated Civil War II Index
The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.
Violence:
Violence is up again, again slightly – I was expecting more during a long, hot summer. I’m guessing that people don’t even notice it anymore. Think San Fran will be paying for cops anytime soon?
Political Instability:
Up is more unstable, up. I expect December to be a time when this starts to head upward, significantly, because, bears.
Economic:
Economic numbers are swinging back down again this month, and a bit more in October – I expected more. Well, we’ll see. Maybe there will be a miracle?
Illegal Aliens:
The biggest number, ever, in the history of the country, an unending flood. Read Enoch Powell’s speech.
Are We At War? Revisited
Last month’s Weather Report topic was a simple question: Are we at war? The reason for this is that a Constant Reader said I was obviously stoned, because the war was obviously already going.
Another Constant Reader responded to this response as noted above that I was stoned for thinking we were closer to war than they did, and I thought it was a more than fair assertion that deserved a response: “Not 8. Not anywhere close to that.”
Well, as to point 6., where people are avoiding the other side, this is an ongoing process I noted that began years ago. I have several friends that have specifically decided to move away from Leftist hotbeds for exactly that reason. My own brother, John Wilder, is currently behind enemy lines in the Reddest area of a very blue state. He’ll be moving before too long to a very, very Red State where he is no longer considered to be an extremist.
He does, however, have a great lawn.
Next, to point 7. If anyone doesn’t think that organized violence is occurring regularly, they need to revisit their news sources. Cities, even in Red States, are being run not by cops, not by commissions, and not by mayors. Those cities are being run by district attorneys that are not prosecuting criminals and are sanctioning the violence. It’s bad enough that it’s normalized – the group protests, riots, and mob thefts that are occurring with the tacit approval of the “justice” system takes us to an 8. Reminder, this Civil War won’t have masses of armed troops to inflict the damage, especially at the start.
To get from 8. to 10. could happen in as little as two weeks – imagine another blatantly stolen election in 2024 . . . that might be the spark. As shown in the first story, polls indicate that a growing number of people no longer want peace at all costs, and the peace that flows from the barrel of a gun would be quite acceptable.
It’s odd when the Muppet® doesn’t have the silliest hair.
Are we at an 8.? I think so. It doesn’t get to a 10. until the Right starts to fight back. I do appreciate the feedback, since this is a work in progress, and it also nudges me to explain what the heck my reasoning is. YMMV.
The fact that two readers with valid points make the opposite argument makes me think I’m close to the right answer. We are very, very near.
LINKS
As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky. Thanks so much, Ricky!!
BAD GUYS
https://twitter.com/i/status/1718365747414761547
https://twitter.com/i/status/1720452778508595253
https://twitter.com/i/status/1718594209450480043
https://twitter.com/i/status/1719551215858798957
https://twitter.com/i/status/1715239983911452861
https://twitter.com/i/status/1715236903853691077
https://twitter.com/i/status/1714199598871228535
GOOD GUY?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1716945256804200575
ONE GUY
https://twitter.com/UR_Ninja/status/1716227124275626374
BODY COUNT
https://citizenfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/biden-state-illegals.jpg
https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_9d841124-7449-11ee-af4a-af115ad29337.html
https://twitter.com/i/status/1707919466154082771
https://twitter.com/Jeanne2999432/status/1719039832633041054?t=Nd5Phexy5Xh6W1OcG6-yIw&s=19
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/axis.JPG?itok=tZ4zVVGS
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/texas/article-12663663/Venezuelas-worst-gangsters-criminals-cross-border-carrying-orders-dictator-Maduro.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12699675/US-border-China-migrants-caravan.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12666301/Migrants-NYC-costing-taxpayer-5BN.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12484069/US-deaths-mortality-richest-countries.html
https://tnc.news/2023/10/26/assisted-suicide-in-canada-2022-1/
VOTE COUNT
https://citizenfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/emerald-fraud.jpeg
http://onlyinbridgeport.com/wordpress/watch-video-captures-gomes-supporters-absentee-ballot-dumping/
https://thefederalist.com/2023/10/05/10-ways-democrats-are-already-rigging-the-2024-election/
https://www.emerald.tv/p/georgias-election-officials-are-getting
https://thefga.org/research/ranked-choice-voting-partisan-plot-to-disrupt-elections/
CIVIL WAR
https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-civil-war-reaching-boiling-point-1840367
https://news.yahoo.com/large-portion-americans-doubt-democracy-160659069.html
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-10-12/civil-war-5-4-3-2
https://www.governing.com/context/what-would-a-national-divorce-look-like
Great post!
Thank you!!!
Human nature, being what it is, will always look towards the brighter side which is comfort, security, plenty, and health. When that paradigm is pushed over, they react. They may wake up and realize they must take steps towards self-preservation, or they may run around in tight little circles emitting high-pitched squeaking noises. The Pollyannas, Sheeple, Normalcy Bias fools, cucks, and the rest will be part of a mass culling. It makes no sense to show the reality of Amerika’s meltdown to people who refuse to see it. I and my tribe of preppers distance ourselves from such people and STFU.
I am at the point where I do not want ANYONE to know what I am thinking or what I have. One only has to look at the mass riots and demonstrations of the last few weeks over this Gaza business, along with the daily crime reports in all of the Blue Hives to see the absolute disintegration of this corrupt, syphilitic-thinking country. There is no point trying to convince those who are in denial. When the balloon finally goes up, they will remember you and be pounding on your door begging for help. Or, they will be snitching you off to the Orcs and Orcettes with badges because you are one of those “hoarders”. The time for debate is long past. Keep vigilant. Stay gray. Bleib ubrig. – DTW
I do try to stay gray, and stay informed locally. The general nature of the human condition is exactly as you note – we strive for “normal” and think it will return to “normal” even though “normal” is long dead.
I can see why someone would believe things aren’t that bad, the media does a great job of covering up the crisis at the border and inflation and our cities turned into warzones. But if you do some critical thinking and investigation on your own? You can see how many people are at the brink all across the political, regional and economic spectrum.
Exactly. People are done, and the blame is universal. A little more misery, a little spark, and *poof* it’s on like Donkey Kong.
It’s my two cents that we’ve been in a low intensity civil war since the 2020 “election”. Also my belief that it won’t take two weeks for things to go kinetic, as certain areas, like Texas, have more holes in it, and New York and California as well. More holes means areas of nearly complete lawlessness in them, by illegals and govt. Chicongo too. Atlanta might ignite very easily. With overseas contests growing very warm, and some cities and regions out of control…….
Election will be part of the next Weather Report. That may be the spark.
There is zero chance the Left won’t blatantly steal the next election. They’re already openly discussing it. And that’s not including all the lawfare against Trump.
You know you’re in a functioning democracy when the leader of the opposition is arrested for things that aren’t crimes that never even happened.
Agreed on all points.
“It doesn’t get to a 10. until the Right starts to fight back.”
This is a crucial point that I think most people miss. Aside from BudLight and Target, the right hasn’t done much to stem the tide of leftism.
Equally important, rightist elites have to advocate for counter-revolutionary action. Providing financial, organizational, and legal support are key components currently missing. Recent announcements that Ivy League Hamas supporters aren’t welcome in some companies is a good sign. Now we need to see similar announcements regarding proponents of Woke. Public firings would also be good indications.
Long ago I was deployed for IFOR (and later SFOR). That experience taught a lot about what contemporary civil war looks like. It goes from harsh words to pogroms very quickly. I assess that the leftists are completing mobilization and conducting some live training events. The rightists haven’t yet put on their boots. Asymmetry to say the least.
It is true, but it’s also true that the hundreds of millions of guns in the country largely belong to the Right.
I do think most discount how horrific Civil War is. It will be the defining moment for a century, if not more.
Organization wins, but thousands of dead militiamen will give everybody else the time and inspiration to really organize.
The future lies on the far side of mountains of skulls, rivers of blood, and oceans of tears. Choose wisely.
I really don’t think that people understand how grim it can get. No idea.
We don’t need gun control. But we do need Riding Lawnmower Control, plus a mandated Federal Funded Education Program on Riding Lawnmower Safety. With Public Service Ads on the TeeVee starring POCs.
Yes. Riding lawn mowers obviously have a much more adverse impact on POCs that white people.
The World’s Pre-Eminent Expert on Riding Lawn Mowers, Hank Hill, agrees. Sadly, Dale Gribble died today.
Arlen & Tom Landry Jr. HS will be overrun with bedbugs & roaches soon.
But Rusty lives on.
…and what a great opportunity to push for EV Riding Lawnmowers! Kill two birds, with one stone (in a manner of speaking). And don’t forget, when using POC’s in ads start getting too pase, it’ll be time to throw in random non-English speakers too! Eventually, they’ll be able to run the same add globally – because you won’t be able to tell WHERE the ad is targeted based on location, demographics, or language!
And licenses and background checks for mowers and swimming pools.
Funny, reading through this I was looking at your graphs and how most of them reflected drastic change in a short time frame. Then I got to the bit on the how quick from 5 to 10? Too damn quick. Many will die before even finding out through whatever sources they follow that it’s kicked off.
Yes – there will be more movement in a month (soon) than in a decade. It will be astonishing to see.
That was the way of Yugoslavia. One day a mix of religions and ethnic backgrounds; 2 weeks later a bunch are dead based on religion and ethnic characteristics. People self-segregated in a hurry.
The war between the states had a long grumbling period before it started, and then exploded in days. That was before the instant news that seems to inflate any troubles.
Flash mobs and flash revolutions. Selco has some interesting and illuminating thoughts on the subject . . .
At this point, it makes more sense to refer to Michael Hayden as a “elderly, recovering stroke victim” than make any reference to his career in military and government. I only wish that the people who think about giving him a microphone think about THAT, first.
You’re saying he’d be better with a tub of tapioca than a microphone? I agree.
https://youtu.be/r9-3K3rkPRE?si=DduSIHNWG2CiW1pu
An oldy but a goodie. Think how bad it is now. Thanks Mike Haydon
I believe that Kyle Rittenhouse did more to quell the violence when he shot the three rioters than all the police forces across the nation combined. Now we have powerful interests in the government and behind the government working overtime to make sure that what Rittenhouse did never happens again.
Great video – I’m sure the NYT would sit on it if they had the same story today.
Based on that response, the entire list is a giant weasel-word conglomeration that can justify any rating from 1 to 9 simultaneously, and purely based on the whims of arbitrary judgement.
The original list, I’ll wager, was written with far more specificity in mind, or else it would have been totally useless from the outset. One kernel popping now and again isn’t the same thing as a bowl of popcorn.
Another thing that transitions from nothing to something in a very short time.
You’re also conflating randomized violence and apathetic response with organized and explicitly state-sanctioned violence.
♫One of these things is not like the other one…♫
Even Antifa has to carefully choose and orchestrate their political theater, to avoid winning FAFO medals by the hundreds one sunny morning.
Do a few minutes’ research into Weimar Germany, and the regular dueling showdowns between communists and fascists, and get back to us on how things are nowhere close to that currently, I beseech you.
If we want to cherry pick items from only downtown Portland, we’re at an 11.
I suspect in your Mayberry, we’re at a 1.
And there are a lot more of the latter locales extant than the former.
So it doesn’t average out to a 5.5, and certainly not an 8, outside 5-10 specific locales, and even there at only very specific and narrow points in time.
Things that are one way for the schmuck trapped inside a mob-surrounded car at a leftist rally bear zero resemblance to how they are for 99.99999% of the inhabitants of the same city, 24/7/365.
The problem is the entire process can’t (and shouldn’t be) characterized as steps up a scaffold.
It’s a chemical reaction, where there’s nothing, still nothing, still more nothing – then suddenly saturation is reached, and everything changes.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rXvVfrvPGdo
We’ve been not-very-far from a 9 or 10 for years, but we weren’t at an 8 even then.
And yet, eight years have intervened, and we’re still very near a 9 or a 10, without being anywhere like at an 8 now either.
Most places are barely at a 4.
And some neighborhoods have been and still are a war zone more dangerous than Iraq at the hieght of our recent involvement there 24/7/365, and have been for decades (which reality pissed off a lot of sandbox veterans when they found out that what they’d thought was a full-on war wasn’t even a bad year in Chicongo), while affecting the other 99.999998% of the country not an effing whit.
This isn’t a timeline journey where the key is distance.
The relevant function is the speed of transition.
It’s more like a light switch than a fuze.
Hence things like Fahrenheit 451, and the fact that you can beat on a nuclear weapon for years with a sledge hammer with no personal risk except muscle fatigue.
But just push the fissile materials inside a wee bit closer together with a single finger, and everything changes profoundly in milliseconds.
That conversation is still where more focus ought to be.
Anyone still living in Portland, Chicongo, or the like, is already five years too late.
Most of the rest of the country, however (thank a merciful heaven), is months and years from that point.
So far.
So, where are the feds plopping those illegal alien hordes of late?
Beuller?
Ferris Bueller?
Anyone?
Anyone…?
And how many persons of Type X in a given place does it take to result in a fundamental change to that place?
People are going to start finding that out, and rediscovering the problems of exponential growth.
True with actual viruses, true with metaphorical ones.
Have I mentioned that WordPress’ new default auto-Anonymizer is a real PITA?
^That comment was mine.
Like I said, had it figured out from sentence number two. Greatly appreciated commentary, love to bounce the ideas back and forth.
Rough times ahead.
Aesop, recognized you from the outset.
The original list is mine, but it is based on work from several papers circa 2000 from Stanford(???). They (loosely and qualitatively) categorized the steps leading to war, but then another paper defined numbers, etc. for what is a Civil War. I might have cited them, but it’s been a while.
If a DA doesn’t prosecute murder, how is that not state sponsored? The violence levels are, indeed, against the Right, by the Left, and state sponsored.
FAFO medals? Sure, they lose the ultimate one, but even in clear cases of self defense:
Attorneys for 35-year-old Daniel Perry asked a judge to consider giving their client a 10-year sentence for the murder of Garrett Foster, a U.S. Air Force veteran, citing Perry’s lack of criminal history and presenting evidence that he has post-traumatic stress disorder from a tour of duty in Afghanistan.
But Travis County, Texas, Criminal Courts Judge Clifford Brown rejected the plea for leniency and sentenced Perry to 25 years in prison.
Modern Mayberry is more than a 4, but that’s because the Leftists just don’t like it here, know they are outnumbered 8 to 2, and outgunned 80 to 1. They’re well behaved. But Civil War doesn’t start in Modern Mayberry, it starts in Portland and Chiraq and New York. It didn’t start in the Vendee, it started in Paris.
My outside prediction is that we can limp along another decade like this, at most. As I said four years ago, the soonest I see things lighting up is next year, so, 2028 is the midpoint.
Last three paragraphs? Can’t argue. Illegals are the tinder. All we lack is a spark.
“State sponsorship“, IMHO, requires a tad more influence on events than laissez faire, et laissez le bon temps rouler.
It’s one thing to turn a blind eye to flashmobs looting the Food King.
It’s quite another thing when you see government officials tying lit shucks to foxes’ tails, and turning them loose in the wheat fields.
And when you see that latter approach, and not just in a couple of extreme outlier locales, at a precious few bad moments in time, but anywhere, everywhere, and most of the time, you can call out a higher number with confidence.
People are overestimating how bad things really are, which leads to disaster-fatigue.
That comes from focusing on “the news”, forgetting that despite the 30° view they’re focusing on, they’re NOT showing you the other 330° (cue Anderson Cooper armpit-deep in a hole next to 2 inches of water).
But people are also overestimating how long it takes to go from a 3 to a 9, which leads to waking up one day in a boxcar, and wondering why you didn’t see it coming, and when you’ll be arriving at the gulag.
I cannot recommend either approach.
But I heartily recommend preparing for the war like it’s already underway.
It’s the only way to ensure that whether you live to see it or not, its impact on your life is minimized.
Why send in the regulars when you can send in the irregulars? The VC probably did more to win in Vietnam than the NVA. Don’t underestimate officially sanctioned thugs.
Things are calm around here, and we may not see a single incident, ever. I think violence will remain patchy. YMMV.
I think that the opposite is happening (violence wise) – people are now normalizing the new violence and looting levels.
We agree that things get very bad, very quick, and preparing now is much easier than reacting later. As always, comment appreciated.
>41% of Biden supporters and 38% of Trump supporters thought it was acceptable to use violence to stop their opponents.
Apples and oranges. It’s like including dead criminals in the ‘gun violence’ stats. Biden supporters will hit you if you don’t support abortion. Trump supporters hit in self-defense.
I’ve never seen news about Trump supporters overwhelming the marchers at a leftist venue. “Trump supporters” have morals. If random/political violence was their thing, they wouldn’t be Trump supporters.
> 41% of Trump supporters and 30% of Biden supporters are in favor of secession based on political lines.
I’d bet that these stats have been fairly level since the Plymouth colony split up.
It is a difference in kind. For now. Once the level has been reached where the Right moves, look out.
Bring it. I am not getting any younger.
To the Sarajevo Olympics bozo, that bullshit genocide had us killing Christian Serbs for the KLA Albanian muslim drug cartel. Anytime anyone sees the muslims as the victims has not lived among them.
Never, ever get involved in the Balkans. I think they fight over hat styles there.
Complete truth about the Kosovo war. I know. I was there in Albania and Kosovo in 1999. (The Albanian mafia eclipsed the Italian mafia in Europe twenty years ago, and is way worse than the Sicilians ever were.)
But… The real reason we got involved, besides never-to-be-sufficiently-damned CNN, was that Albania was mobilizing to support the KLA. And Greece was mobilizing to support Serbia against Albania. And Turkey was mobilizing to support Albania against Greece.
REGARDLESS of who wins the next presidential election, these united States (using the term as it is stated in the Constitution) will be embroiled in a civil war because neither side will accept the other side as the lawful (rightful) inheritor of the Executive Branch.
However, you may be right in proposing that we will not even have an election, which non-action will also devolve into that civil war I was mentioning….
So, in case any have not realized it…. these are the good old days….. Whoo…..whoo !!
Enjoy ’em while you still got ’em !!
My exhortation (see previous sentence) is a poor echo to the magnificent message and straight forward eloquence of Dick Bachert’s “Nowhere To Hide” 6 1/2v min video: https://youtu.be/dqw7kXG0kxU Everybody, please watch it and send it to all on your lists…it is that good !
(Another exhortation: All should know by now that it is beyond time to begin prepping……. Why? because your life in the approaching bad times will depend on how well you have planned ahead…)
REGARDLESS of who wins the next presidential election, these united States (using the term as it is stated in the Constitution) will be embroiled in a civil war because neither side will accept the other side as the lawful (rightful) inheritor of the Executive Branch.
However, you may be right in proposing that we will not even have an election, which non-action will also devolve into that civil war I was mentioning….
So, in case any have not realized it…. these are the good old days….. Whoo…..whoo !!
Enjoy ’em while you still got ’em !!
My exhortation (see previous sentence) is a poor echo to the magnificent message and straightforward eloquence of Dick Bachert’s “Nowhere To Hide” 6 1/2v min video: https://youtu.be/dqw7kXG0kxU Everybody, please watch it and send it to all on your lists…it is that good !
(Another exhortation: All should know by now that it is beyond time to begin prepping……. Why? because your life in the approaching bad times will depend on how well you have planned ahead…)
Yeah, I keep coming back to Masque of the Red Death as a motif when thinking about the 2020s. Dancing at the end of it all.
Time to prep is short. A year too early is better than an hour too late.