“Because if just one of those things gets down here then that will be all!  Then all this – this bulls**t that you think is so important?  You can just kiss all that goodbye!†– Aliens
I can’t stand people who are xenophobic.
Corona. COVID-19. There’s a catastrophe always lurking, but it’s never what you think. But it’s always something.  Beer Flu. Kung Flu.
Do you understand the magnitude? Most people don’t. I’m not even sure I do.
The last few nights here at Stately Wilder Mansion Redoubt have been especially enjoyable. I took off some time last week, and plan on taking some time off this week, as well. It’s a great time, especially if you’ve never read Poe’s Masque of the Red Death (LINK).
Rarely do things change so quickly: we Wilders were preparing to go to a state-level event where Pugsley was going to compete. Competing was an honor – it means that he was one of the very best in the state at competitive freestyle dramatic baking rhythmic knife combat.
The championship was cancelled – 6,000 people in the same place probably doesn’t make sense. Why? Mathematically I’m betting that at least one of the competitors or spectators would have been COVID-communicable. 6,000 would have been a wonderful place for one person to donate billions of virus fragments to thousands of others, just like one South Korean was responsible for over 1,000 cases.
Ahhh, panda. So very tasty. I like it with a side of bald eagle.
One of my friends and I were talking before the event was canceled and said to me, “John, it’s cancelled. There is no way that’s going to happen.â€Â There was no uncertainty in his voice – it was clear he was 100% certain. In my mind, I thought that somehow this event would sneak under the radar. It did not. And in retrospect, I found myself guilty of one of the chief sins of the universe: thinking that normal can win in abnormal circumstances. Thankfully, the penalty here wasn’t the usual penalty for such a sin: death. Okay, that was dramatic. Mainly it’s feeling stupid.
Pugsley was disappointed since he had his katana sharp, his Hamlet memorized, and his recipe book tattooed on his left thigh, but cancelling the event was the right call.
The Boy was back in town for spring break, so the four of us Wilders are hunkered down in the basement as I write this. The other three idiots have been taking turns invading my writing space playing a video game. Thankfully, we like each other and have a reasonable supply of deodorant and soap. If the soap runs low, I volunteer to try to make some out our fire pit ashes and the cat.
But is it made from cat?
The Boy and Pugsley have been out into the world since COVID-19™ hit more than The Mrs. and I. The Boy went back to his college on Saturday. They say that the college will open at some unspecified time in the future, but sent a note out that maybe you should think about coming to get your stuff. The Boy and Pugsley took a road trip for just that purpose. While The Mrs. hasn’t had her job officially cancelled for the foreseeable future, I expect that will be the case. I don’t expect either of the three of them to be required to be outside of the house in the month of March except for runs to Wal-Mart®.
Okay, it wasn’t that bad. They didn’t even ask me for gas money. Hey, have you guys seen my credit card?
My job? It’s probably not directly required for the United States to keep going on a daily basis, so I could see myself being restricted to working from home unless I absolutely had to be somewhere to defuse a bomb or perform a circumcision an alien. As it is, if I have symptoms of Corona, I can’t come back to work unless I’ve been cleared via a doctor’s note. Assuming I can find one of the six doctors in the county, but, hey, I can sign a signature that might look like a doctor? It looks just like an Ebola© virus, right?
I’ve really enjoyed the time at home. It’s surreal, since as I listen to the Internet radio, I can hear everything crumbling as the news gets weirder by the day. I dumped my 401k (the part that was in stocks) into the money market fund this morning on Sunday. That means they’re supposed to dispose of it tomorrow. But as the market is lock-limit down already, what does that even mean? Can my money even find an exit point?
I’m betting the Fed dumps a trillion dollars, or maybe even two trillion into the market.
Tomorrow.
It’s that bad. I hope I’m wrong, but I think it’s going to be October in 1929 bad.
Maybe this will work. Seems stable, right?
It’s obvious that the world around us has already changed. As we drove to Wal-Mart© on Friday for a scouting expedition, I looked at a parade of businesses that would soon be closed as I drove by them one by one on the street.
- Move theater? Who’s going to go, especially since the movies are crap?
- Diner frequented mainly by old people?  Old couples are going to be self-quarantined watching the Price is Right® until they welcome COVID-19 to escape each other.
- Car dealerships?  I’d like to buy that new Jeep® Corona™ Wagon.
- Scented candle places? Okay, I’m not sure how they stay in business anyway in 2020, unless they launder meth money.
- Insurance companies?
- Laundromats?
- Thrift shops?
- The VFW?
- Churches?
- Bars?
- Liquor stores?  Let’s not get crazy here.
People don’t really need those things. Except for liquor stores. From start to finish, what do people need in a modern society?  I left off Law Enforcement because they keep people I don’t like away from me. Yeah, some of them are tools, but for the most part we really do want them around for a modern society. Or, if we don’t have Law Enforcement, a lot more ammo.
But the FBI seems reluctant to stop them. Even for speeding.Â
And need is not for the basics of life, it is for the basics of life for a modern society.
- Water
- Transport
- Grocery Stores
- Electricity
- Their Bank
- Pharmacies
- Internet
- Gasoline/Fuels
- Natural Gas
But each of these requires people going to work to make things happen. The people who run the water system have to purify the water. The farmers have to farm, ranchers have to ranch, and dairy owners have to, um, dairy? The systems that provide water, milk, eggs, meat and corn are fundamental. They keep us in Doritos® and salsa and Monterrey Jack™ cheese.
What will keep the system going?  The city water department needs chemicals, so we need a chemical plant to make chlorine. But will we open the potato chip factory, or expect people can figure out how to cook potatoes? Will we open the frozen food factory, or assume people can make their own pizza? We move from a market economy to one where “shortages†are created based upon allocations – what’s the best way to minimize the number of people that congregate while minimizing the spread of CoronaChan?
I don’t know.  But I do know that some foods will be considered so frivolous or interpersonal contact intensive that good sense won’t let them be made. Eating at a restaurant? That involves additional people, from cooks to servers that are potential additional viral vectors.
And as far as the tip, wash your hands.
What else don’t we need? That’s a tough question. Do we need the latest spring fashions shipped in from China? Do we need the latest iPhone®? Do we need Stephen Colbert? Definitely not. Heck, I’m not sure we need most of those things on any given day at all, let alone during a catastrophe.
And that’s just consumer products and a lame late night host. How much gasoline do we need if we’re not travelling to and from work? Not very much. Lots of diesel is needed to move products in semi-trucks and on trains. In the United States, about 9 million barrels (42 gallons per barrel) are used each day as motor fuel. After Corona?
Three quarters of that? Half?
This weekend I would have probably used 30 gallons. Instead? None. Multiply that by millions of people, and gasoline demand is sunk. Get ready for the lowest gasoline prices you’ll ever see in your life. And, since we’ll not be transporting a lot of “stuff� The lowest diesel prices, too, and unlike the hoarded toilet paper, they’ll hit bottom.
Maybe there will be new markets???
I look at this from a standpoint that I’ve got some food in my house that I’ve bought for times just such as this. I don’t owe much to anyone. As I’ve indicated before, if you have money (and if money is still good, which may not be a given) you’re in for the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Want an oil well?  You’ll never have a better chance at getting a good one, if you have money. Especially the baby oil wells. Contrary to popular opinion baby oil isn’t made from babies, but from toddlers.
But it’s the people who don’t have money that I’m concerned about. The theater owner can’t keep the theater going if there are no butts in seats. The diner waitress can’t make the payments on their car if they can’t bring plates filled with eggs and bacon with a side of biscuits and gravy to Grandpa Verne. She depends on the tips that pay the bank for that car, since Virgil can’t hold a job now that he’s in the county lockup for fighting Clem again.
Most people depend on this week’s income to pay this month’s bills. I’ve been there. I lived several years of my life one month and one lost job away from bankruptcy. Thankfully, now I can live without a month of income. Most people can’t.
How does that end up? It’s simple enough to say, “Well, let the banks take a hit on a month of payments. They’re greedy and don’t need that money.â€
But . . . it’s my money you’re talking about. My money is in the bank. How does Hells Wargo® pay me back if my money isn’t collected from the waitress and the theater owner? For every transaction, there’s another party. And if you have more money than zero, you’re impacted. That money of yours that your bank has? You loaned it to them. And if the loans that they made don’t pay back? What happens then?
Another system failure. I’m expecting that the Federal government will just pony up several trillion to make it all go away. They have a printing press, ink, and paper. Why not?
It worked out okay for Zimbabwe and Venezuela, right?
From the best available information I’ve seen slowing down the WuFlu® isn’t enough. It has to be stopped. COVID-19® isn’t the flu. All available data indicates that it is far more deadly, and far more contagious.
At the high end of mortality, it would kill up to 7,500,000 Americans, assuming half of the people in the US get it. What else is a factor? How quickly we get it. If you want to live, having a ventilator will be an issue for some percentage, say, 5% of people who get it. No ventilator for that 5%? They die. Mortality rate skyrockets without care – it’s the difference between as low as 0.5% (as observed in South Korea) to as high as 5% in overwhelmed countries.
My trigger for “not the flu†is 30,000. That seems like a big number, but when you divide it by the number of people in America, it’s really not. The flu (as near as we can see today) is a LOT less fatal. And, unless I missed a day in kindergarten, 30,000 is a lot less than 7,500,000.
Okay, not me. I have to write. And I have HBO®.
But until we see how it pans out, I guess I get the big prize: spending time with Wilders. And I’ll enjoy spending time with each of them.
Except the cat.
No need for hysteria, folks. Follow a few simple, common sense guidelines, and they will keep you, your loved ones and the rest of the trash in your extended fambly coronavirus-free. Obvious things we know that we should be doing, anyway.
Use your elbow to pick your nose.
Gargle with hand sanitizer, before, during and after meals.
Cough into your crotch to avoid spreading germs to others.
Refrain from handshaking, and waggle weenies at one another from across the room in greeting, instead.
Hold your breath for the duration of any flight, domestic or international.
Keep bedroom lights brightly lit to thoroughly annihilate any amorous inclinations toward your significant other.
Do not accept Peek Freans from strangers, no matter how serious they may seem.
Wipe down Anthrax CDs before playing, with a 50-50 solution of Lestoil and Jagermeister.
Do not open spam emails offering ED treatments in comical broken English from potentially infected countries.
Take a bourbon sitz bath to minimize the risk of a**hole-to-a**hole transmission.
In the event of overdue assignments at work, feign illness and stay home in your PJ’s, eating Pop Tarts until your program is defunded.
Muslim women are advised to ditch the burka in favor of other full-body options, such as the Sarani-wrap or the more stylish Hazmati.
Practice Ninja Shadowhand, the art of invisibility, to reduce exposure to the virus and its mutations.
Should symptoms appear while shopping at the Big Box, self-quarantine in the feminine hygiene products aisle for a minimum 14 days.
Be advised that neither the face-palm nor the faceplant has proven effective against spread of the virus.
Seek immediate medical attention if you suspect that you are turning Japanese.
When indulging bat soup, opt for the Louisville Slugger bisque, 34 ounce. Uncorked.
Beware offers of ‘previously owned’ face masks, especially those sold at deep discount at vape shops.
Avoid places where the superannuated congregate, such as the early bird special at Golden Corral and any event involving the word ‘Bingo’.
When passing through non-automatic doors, tailgate behind someone else who has already unwittingly assumed the risk.
Above all, DO NOT PANIC. According to a spokesman from the CDC, who has not been seen in a while, “We’ll have this one knocked out as quickly and completely as we eradicated AIDS. And tuberculosis. And Ebola”.
Heh heh . . . cough into my crotch. Honestly, these were all genius.
, thats top shelf stuff there TBC.
Even carpooling becomes risky when you factor in the number of people we all have contact with. I think bicycles may become far more popular then they are now. Especially for distances within 10 miles or so.
That living in the country sure does come with some perks. Then again, if they begin road closures to stop the spread of COVID, sure does complicate Life as well. Most people who live out there commute to nearest town / city to work / shop / buy supplies. When those hay bales are no longer available, what do you feed your livestock ?
When those hay bales are no longer available, what do you feed your livestock ?
If you planned ahead, from the land. Your neighbors can help. Which reminds me, I need to remind ours that ours is available if they need it.
If you live in a freezing winter climate, get busy now, or plan to butcher all but the breeding stock.
And if you really planned ahead, you’ve got mature big leaf maples. If not, the common mullein is coming up about now. When it goes to serve be sure to broadcast it in sunny, well-drained locations 😋
I am 48 with a relatively decent immune system, plus I live away from most non-Amish people, so my odds of contracting the Kung Fu Flu seems pretty low and even if I did, they odds are enormously in my favor that I will be fine. I am probably in more danger spending 4-12 hours a day driving than I am from the COVID-19. I’ll stay away from old people and crowds, both solid plans on a good day.
Now when it comes to how the rest of the people in this country respond? Well, I am a lot less confident. People are acting like locust in stores now but I assume almost everyone already had a lot of food in the house and toilet paper and diapers. By next weekend when they still can’t get staple items and they are running out? Most people will be angry about it but a significant portion of the population is going to start getting…creative. Add in waves of job losses and enormous delays in getting unemployment thanks to our efficient government, and it could come unglued in a hurry. I am looking forward to a bumper crop of videos of vibrant diversity brawling in Walmart over malt liquor and tortillas.
If you aren’t super comfortable that the amount of ammo you have on hand is adequate for an extended (like years) amount of time, you better order some now because it is disappearing quickly. If you don’t have a firearm for protection, it is going to also be too late soon unless you want to buy a $5000 Perazzi trap gun.
The general philosophy I hold is that there are way too many people in this country and the vast majority of them are dumb. I have never gone wrong making decisions based on those assumptions. In times like these? I am feeling even better about it.
(BTW, if you still had money in the market in your 401k, you need to reevaluate some of your life choices)
It wasn’t a lot of money, percentage wise. I’m okay with the consequences.
My neighbor forgot to close their fence, his 25 ducks, and geese, wandered into the pond behind the house. They refused to go home, and a little corn keeps them close.
By my calculations, there’s a few weeks of meat for the immediate family, and neighbors. We have pits, grills, fireplaces, and can even build campfires if necessary. The only thing we need is some rice, beans and more flour. Fuel is cheap, the cans are full, and the generators are in top condition.
So, if my calculations are correct, and the local citizens are in their usual surly, backwoods mindset, everything will be fine, and anyone attempting to risk our travel may not like our attitude. It’s like a hurricane, without the downed limbs, and flooding.
Thankfully, the number of people who want to come to Modern Mayberry to sight see is . . . zero. Now to figure out how to feed more relatives if they show up.
Grrr.
I’ll take the other side of the “bail out of stocks” common-sense position. Here goes: stocks and bonds are such crucial parts of our economy that they simply can’t be allowed to lose “too much” of their notional value. (By “too much”, I’m thinking retaining 25% might be the floor. By “notional value”, I mean “dollars per share”, not “burgers per share”.) I look at the fantastic rates of return offered by the stock markets of Venezuela and Zimbabwe as examples of how, with proper government intervention, stock-holders (which includes pension funds and insurance companies, as well as individuals) can be somewhat protected while most everybody else gets ruined. Aside from the purely financial aspects, stocks represent businesses, and there are businesses which perform useful services for which there will be continuing demand. (And then, on the other hand, there’s United Airlines, Boeing, … and Tesla.) Sooner or later, they’ll be back up and producing profits for their owners. In the mean time, I expect the markets to be manipulated to minimize the obvious damage.
Also, even if you think that stocks stink, are the still the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet? If you put money into a nice, safe, Treasury bill, you’re almost certainly going to get your dollars back (most of them, anyway, if interest rates go negative), but who knows how many burgers those dollars will buy ten years from now?
It’s 0900 on Monday. Stock futures have halted after popping the circuit-breaker like a welding machine wired into a light socket, and actual trading opens in 30 minutes. I expect two, or maybe all three, S&P circuit breakers to blow before the end of the day. But not because I’m the one selling.
Allow me to be the other side to your other side. My first job in financial services was answering phone calls from 401k plan participants at the biggest 401k provider in the country. I have no hard data to back this up but I guarantee people have been and will continue to both dump their existing positions in stocks in their 401k and direct future contributions into money market funds. There is an enormous amount of money in the market held by smaller investors via their company 401k plan and those people will panic. As people are laid off or see their hours reduced, so too will the amount they contribute every week into 401k plans via payroll deduction, further dampening demand. Many people, facing uncertainty, will reduce their contribution percentage or take loans or even withdrawals from their plans.
In the industry we talked about 401k contributions as a firehose of money flowing into the market every week, but that flow is going to diminish. These aren’t small amounts of money, when I moved up the ladder in the 401k business into account management I had three clients that combined had around $4 billion invested and I had some of the smaller, large market, clients.
We are entering a new era of investing I believe. I used to travel the country and tell people to put their money in stock funds because, while past results are not a guarantee of future returns, the market has always been the best investment over the long term and kept ahead of inflation. I am not sure that is going to be true over the next ten years.
Arthur – Perhaps I should have mentioned that much less than 50% of our net worth is in stocks. We have no debt, and pay no rent. But the diversified mix of assets that we’ll have a week from now will be the same as we had a week ago, because the last three years of stock gains were equally irrational. To have everything, or nothing, in stocks is equally foolish.
I did sell. And I’m happy.
We’re not done.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
I haven’t lost a penny in the market because I haven’t sold my stocks. This too shall pass is a good motto for a 401k. I have never understood the hair pulling hysteria about “my retirement fund” from someone who is years or decades from retirement.
And, as has been mentioned, diversity is a good thing when it comes to investments. Stock market, cash, gold and silver, ammunition, food. All part of a well balanced portfolio.
I’m not hair pulling – too little hair for that. And stocks have been good over the long term.
But will I be alive over this long term?
New money does go back into stocks . . . .
I have friends planning a trip to Mexico and were to leave yesterday, and I think they did. They seem to be of the mindset that Normal is permanent. I used to think like that as well, until I realized there is no spoon.
You led right into Wednesday’s post!
It’s my superpower.
All available data indicates that it is far more deadly, and far more contagious.
Except all that data is pure quill GIGO. If you can’t trust the numbers from corrupt socialist oligarchies, what can you trust, amirite?
Here’s some things to think about.
Every industry, every thing in the U.S. that makes, well things that we use has parts and materials, even whole systems that come from factories in China. Which are not working. And haven’t been for a while.
As I wrote over at Sarah Hoyt’s blog, if coronachan ghosts us all tomorrow, will the U.S. have enough masks for health care workers dealing with every other contagion? How about spare parts for dialysis machines? Intubation plastics?
And that’s without our various parasite classes, home-grown and imported, the worst of which are the iron-rice bowl beaureaucrats (mea culpa!) and the financial strip-miners who simply view this as another opportunity to squeeze the productive people.
Crazy days.
All available data indicates that it is far more deadly, and far more contagious.
Except all that data is pure quill GIGO. If you can’t trust the numbers from corrupt socialist oligarchies, what can you trust, amirite?
Here’s some things to think about.
Every industry, every thing in the U.S. that makes, well things that we use has parts and materials, even whole systems that come from factories in China. Which are not working. And haven’t been for a while.
As I wrote over at Sarah Hoyt’s blog, if coronachan ghosts us all tomorrow, will the U.S. have enough masks for health care workers dealing with every other contagion? How about spare parts for dialysis machines? Intubation plastics?
And that’s without our various parasite classes, home-grown and imported, the worst of which are the iron-rice bowl beaureaucrats (mea culpa!) and the financial strip-miners who simply view this as another opportunity to squeeze the productive people.
Crazy days.
I can’t stand people who are xenophobic.
What about those who are Xenaphobic? I mean, that war cry of hers was something else.
Maybe you touched your genitals liquid soap . . . .
Maybe? Maybe? Of course I did! I’m a man, and the very first thing each morning is either touch my genitals or pee all over the toilet. The wife gets a little irate about that.
Indeed. That’s the first thing I touch every day, but the people I meed like to pretend that’s not the case.
I’m betting.