“A future of economic growth, freedom, and happiness.” – Robocop
I had a hen who wanted to study economics. She was something of a mathemachicken.
“The economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023.”
And my response: so what?
There is a Cult of Growth in the world. In the United States, at least, that growth was literally in the DNA of the young country – there was lots of space and it was only filled with some pesky Indians who didn’t have a lot of resistance to smallpox or lead, some buffalo, no zoning, and lots of empty land to build Blockbuster Video® stores.
So, off my ancestors went. The idea was simple – fill the country from sea to sea with farms and businesses, eventually mines and mills and railroads and factories and highways. No one really planned it, and there weren’t economists reporting on unemployment figures to Rutherford B. Hayes.
What does the “B” stand for? Babebandit.
The growth that the United States experienced was amazing, and it was real. People built those farms and businesses and mines and railroads and factories and highways. That sort of growth allowed the creation of amazing wealth and prosperity because it was enduring and built upon itself. In those decades of growth, the United States experienced not diminishing returns but increasing returns as the steel mills fed the oil boom which fed the creation of the automotive industry and interstates.
Add in a few thousand nuclear weapons, and this growth of actual productivity and wealth production allowed the country to achieve tremendous national prosperity during a time of relative safety. Some would maintain that this prosperity peaked in 1973, but when you look at the relative availability of exceedingly cheap “stuff” – it was probably later than that. Perhaps a good case could be made for the 1980s when Blockbuster Videos™ roamed the land like a great majestic beast, spewing properly rewound videotapes and Raisinets® to all.
Regardless of when that exact date is, it is likely past.
Your momma is so old she rewinds Netflix® videos before logging off.
What was once achievable on a single income now requires (in many cases) two incomes. People of the past always thought that new labor-saving devices would accrue benefits to the worker, and we’d see a two- or three-day work week. Instead, we see people working more hours for less (relative) pay.
Why is that? I mean, the economy grew, right?
Yes, it did. But the way the economy grew, fueled by illegal aliens contributed to lower wages. The argument could be made that that the economic activity, the growth from these added workers helped everyone. Well, no. Illegals are certainly a net negative when everything is accounted for – welfare, roads, schools, medical care, voting GloboLeft, and Kardashian body hair.
I think she’s got so much plastic in her that if she swims it’s technically littering.
And the “growth” that we saw in many cases was the productive bit of the economy being hollowed out and shipped off overseas. Why? Because regulation increased in the United States (it never goes down) and it was easier to start and run a factory in Malasia than it is in Maine. And if iMegaCorp® can ship the factory over and increase corporate profits by 2%, they’ll do it.
Why? They’re owned by the people who make bad growth.
What’s bad growth? Well, the financial sector. It should be set up not as a casino or a place where the businesses make money selling money.
Growth is not always good. And it’s not always desirable. Let’s take an example: if I decided I wanted to gain a pound of weight next week, the healthy way to do it would be to put on a pound of muscle through exercise. But the easy way to put on a pound would be to pound some beers and milk shakes.
I believe her pronouns are HerShey.
The United States could do the same – we could increase the size of the economy by producing more and better cars or computers or flat panel displays, or bulldozers. Or, we could increase the size of the economy by ChaseCitiFargo™ charging extra fees on overdrafts and GoldmanBlackRock© buying a company, loading it up with debt that it can’t pay, and then selling it piecemeal for a 15% profit.
One of these makes a more productive society. The other is the equivalent of two people selling a house back and forth for 10% more each time and talking about all the wealth that they created.
So, not all growth is good, and not all increased profit is increased wealth. One economy can make stuff, the other just makes magical made-up profits. I’ve made the argument for some time that China’s economy is fine. It is. They know how to make stuff, so they are fundamentally more stable than the United States because the growth in China wasn’t in financial shenanigans, it was in productive stuff.
Did you know it’s illegal to water your plants in China? It causes the microphones to rust.
Does China have all sorts of debt? Yes, yes they do. Have they produced a lot of suspect crap in the past, especially for internal consumption? Yes, yes they have, and probably still do. Doesn’t matter.
Their economy isn’t based on “growth” that occurs only on paper, and only due to paper even though people smoke in China to get fresh air.
They don’t worship the Cult of Growth.
Do I want to live there? Nope.
Again, there’s good news – this system can’t last, so it won’t.
The ride, however may be bumpy . . . as we get to rebuild it – on healthy growth this time.
I sent your joke (Your mam is so old she rewinds Netflix videos before logging off) to my 15yr old granddaughter. After telling the joke to her mom she replied, My mama so old she thinks that’s funny.
Hahahahaha!
1973? At age 70 I’d say 1990-91, Gulf War I/Desert Storm. It took almost a generation before the rot really sank in. The CCCP was vanquished, and nobody, but nobody was going to F* with the USA.
Since then, we’ve had the Clintons, another Bush, Obummer, Bidet…Trump was sorta OK but no wall, had no problem with the Death Vaxx, no balanced budget/spnding control, so what’s the difference??? Oh, only 9MM illegals/year. Or so.
Face it, we won’t know our country by 2025. Maybe 2026. Take your pick. It doesn’t matter who wins this November. And get out of cities now.
Welcome back John.
First, thank you. Glad to be here!
Yes. Get out of cities. It does get worse before it gets better.
In addition to the factors mentioned in the article, two other things contributed greatly to the decline of growth and prosperity in America, even before the surge of “migrants”. Those things were the relentless demands of the unions and the drain on resources by those who contributed nothing to society. Both peaked in the 1970’s. The unions sent the manufacturing jobs overseas and the leaches sucked the life from what remained.
It was a combination: unions, regulations, and corporate raiders who care little about the country. I would put unions in third in that troika.
I think many want us to believe that economic growth is like tending a beautiful rose bed instead of the untenable field of weeds it actually has become.
Jess
No, we planted roses, and when the weeds grew we said, “hey, it’s growth!”
That spurt of growth from sea to shining sea in the 1800s under Rutherford B. Hayes was only possible because two specific things had not het been introduced into American society: the Federal Reserve in 1913 and widespread use of the Pill by 1973.
The Fed replaced introduced fractional reserve banking. Instead of “sound money”, dollars became IOU slips where the word “Note” replaced “Certificate” in an evil switcheroo. Under fractional reserve banking, repayment of debt takes “money” out of circulation, so the goal perversely changed from “true growth” to “increase the debt load” for all individuals. A prime example of this was the housing crash in 2008. Growth in home mortgage collapsed, so student debt was NECESSARILY promoted to take its place to keep “growth” alive.
But new Americans upon whom to pile new debt upon have became increasingly scarce. By 1973 The Pill had come to be used by 36% of women after its introduction in 1960. The effect on birth rate in those 13 years was immediate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_United_States#/media/File:US_Birth_Rates.svg
It’s getting worse.
https://econofact.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Kearney-et-al.Figure-1.v2.desktop.png
Growth in a debt-obsessed society with ever increasing non-productive elderly on Social Security and fewer and fewer kids to support them?
Good luck with that.
…aaannnddd today’s lead ZH article re-enforces my point…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-gdp-grew-334-billion-q4-growth-cost-834-billion-debt
The, heh, money shot:
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Q4%20GDP%20vs%20debt%2023.jpg?itok=9Jf7o0e1
If growth can’t be had without crippling levels of debt per the above, at least we have “progress”…
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-a-legal-tender-dollar-bill-and-a-silver-certificate-dollar-bill/answer/Todd-Bartholomew?ch=10&oid=405943070&share=bce47d1a&srid=Ndfn&target_type=answer
Until 1971, a single Silver Certificate could be exchanged by the US Government for one Silver Dollar coin. The paper and the coin had equal value.
Today, a mere half century later, 28 Federal Reserve Notes can be exchanged at a bullion coin dealer for one Silver Dollar coin.
https://www.moneymetals.com/2024-1-oz-american-silver-eagle-coin/965
Now the precious metal coin is still valuable money, while the paper note is just fiat debt that was successfully passed off to a sleeping 20th Century citizenry as “progress”.
And all those silver quarters vanished into the aether.
Related, but on a city level:
“those who have been paying attention, (a surprisingly small number in one gato’s opinion), have been increasingly wondering about major US cites going bankrupt. the folks at “truth in accounting” recently laid out some stark findings:
last year, 53 of the 75 most populous US cities (70%) did not have enough money to pay their bills. they held $307bn in assets and $595bn in debt, a coverage ratio of only 52% and this is probably much too optimistic as future labilities look to be being systematically reduced and future income projections look implausibly rosy, especially given how trends are going.”
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-ponzi-bomb-under-the-city-walls?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=323914&post_id=141866040&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=trgq1&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
That’s a mic-drop moment.
And since illegals suck more in services than they provide in taxes, we’re not running fast enough to stand still – we’re losing ground.
All of these economic numbers are the equivalent of tossing chicken bones and divining the future from how they land. The unemployment numbers are BS, the GDP growth numbers are as well. An economic system as enormous as ours is by it’s very nature impossible to really grasp and quantify. The numbers we see are what They want us to see.
100% true – and it’s manufactured to remove manufacturing. Why?
Slaveholding was economically detrimental to society as a whole, too. It held because it made a select few very wealthy, and that money was used to retain political power.
The same thing is going on with man-made global climate change. We pay a fee when we buy any consumer goods, and the (puppet masters! instigators!1!) keep most of it.
It was.
How much is man made? If so, what is being done that would stop it? (hint: nothing)
To a simple-minded meathead such as I am, your description of the early, explosive growth of the country has a rough parallel with newbie gains in the gym. Our noodle-armed fledgling nation couldn’t possibly NOT pack on economic muscle, fast, no matter how erratic and random was its plan, for its potential was immense and there was nowhere else to go but up.
Alas, those impressive newbie gains are temporary and fleeting. Once immutable natural limits are approached, progress slows and eventually peters out. It requires ever more artificial, suspect methods to keep the party going. At some point there comes an inevitable cessation of all gains, when none of the old tricks seem to work any longer. The plateau is unavoidable, as nothing but a tree grows forever.
Is that where we are now? Seems plausible.
Excellent, excellent analogy. We had everything, and we were young and naive. Then those would exploit us showed up. As they always do.
Some have speculated that the supposed economic growth over the past few years can be attributed to “reemployment,” wherein those no-good, evil anti-vaxxers were rehired to their former jobs when people began realizing how much of a bullshit supernova The Nineteen was. Could be.
Part of it is that, but most of it is funny numbers tied to inflation and trading properties back and forth to make people feel good.
“I believe her pronouns are HerShey.”
The high quality of your post was overshadowed for me by this brilliant bit. It triggered my TDS (Trope Derangement Sybdrome) and it will be all I can do to resist using it everywhere. Another great post nonetheless.
Huzzah!
“Syndrome”, of course.
And in my not-so humble opinion, there was no starting point. This is all part of a never-ending cycle; only the participants change. Just one more turn on the wheel; there is no horizon.
Thank you! Please use, enjoy, and trigger others!
And you didn’t even address the 800# gorilla of economics. The massive deliberate hidden tax called inflation.
Yes. 100% agree this is the tax that steals from everyone . . . except the GloboLeftElite.
Little too optimistic on this one. The country needs welders and machinists and not bank managers. No young people want to get dirty and it is hard to make stuff with people who specialize in weed, 40’s, video games, and questioning gender.
We are in deep shit. Average age of American farmers is 61. And we are damned good at that…for now
That is a concern – no corn, no corn syrup . . . oh, wait . . .
The real issue was going off the gold standard, as it allowed for the creation of infinite money which could be sent to whomever the creators wanted.
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
As you said:
“One economy can make stuff, the other just makes magical made-up profits.”
Those made-up profits mostly come from FR creating money out of nothing, and making sure it all goes to the connected people first.
Or to keep banks propped up. But I repeat your comment.
“Again, there’s good news – this system can’t last, so it won’t.
The ride, however may be bumpy . . . as we get to rebuild it – on healthy growth this time.”
TPTB have made the system bumpy precisely to bring about an economic collapse so they can rush in with “solutions” that lead to greater control. Less wealth for everyone, but more control for them, which is what they really want. Just like the Great Depression, 2008 Crash, 9/11 for that matter. There isn’t going to be a point where the Bad Guys just disappear into the sunset, leaving us to rebuild in peace. It’s going to get worse, then worse some more. Then maybe stabilize for a century or three.
Unless we get organized enough at the state and local level to do something about it.
The Mrs. asked me tonight, “Why does the GloboLeft want to remove police?”
Chaos.
>What was once achievable on a single income now requires (in many cases) two incomes.
Because of new things we want. We start with low-paying jobs in crappy apartments, and as we get better jobs with more money our living expenses expand because we want the new car and nicer apartment or restaurants/shows/jewelry/offroader. One income is more than enough…if you have self-control.
>growth in China wasn’t in financial shenanigans, it was in productive stuff.
Better check your sources on that one. They’re in much worse shape than us.
The Fed is like Vietnam: necessary, but horrible execution.
We just can’t have an advanced economy without it. No one is going to save billions of …dollars? credits? zimbucks?….worth of gold bullion to build a steel plant or refinery, they’d go to a Central Bank economy where it’s cheaper and easier to get a loan. And if you play valuation games with the price/oz, or using Gold Certificates, you’re just using dollars with a different name. You can’t just say ‘gold is now $50,000/oz so the books balance’. The free market would decide the price, and that ain’t it. We either have a Fed, or an equivalent, and what would that look like?
Population flucuations are no problem. We’ll automate around it as we’re doing now. And with sane monetary policies, there’d be plenty for SSI plus a bunch.
There’s never been a generation in recorded human history that didn’t think it was the last generation because OMG the sky is falling.
First, yes they can. But average wages are lower for 20 year olds in 2023 than in 1973. By a lot. And houses have gone full on.
China – what would you like to bet? You’re assuming they need to prop up banks. They don’t.
We don’t need the Fed. We had much more growth for much longer without it. It’s cancer.
Last paragraph: I’m not thinking the sky is falling. The system failing will set the stage for real growth, again.
> average wages are lower for 20 year olds in 2023
The skillsets needed aren’t the same as 1973. Is it a fair comparison?
I duckduckgo’ed ‘china bank failure’, but did you see where they found water instead of rocket fuel at some of their missile sites? I shoulda went with that.
Before 1911 we had enough physical wealth in metals and forests and furs. Those things don’t need chip plants like our phones and 737 Maxxes do.
‘the sky is falling’ comment I made was definitely not aimed at you, but (a), it’s a true statement, and (b), what, are you picking on an old man now, for Christ’s sake, what’s wrong with you?
Many of them are – there is just so much more labor with that skillset. Competition, supply and demand. Backhoes haven’t changed that much.
I didn’t see that! It doesn’t surprise me – there’s a lot of corruption there.
There is a fundamental difference in the productivity of resource-driven economies and those that produce “stuff” – generally resource-driven economies have done poorly and suffered much more economic dislocation over time, whereas manufacturing places have a much more even economy. We need chip plants. Here.
Hehehhehe! Sorry to pick on you! I will say I’m doing it while I’m grinning!