The Funniest Article You’ll Read Today About Risk

Wang:  “A brave man likes the feel of nature in his face, Jack”
Egg Shen:  “Yeah?  And a wise man has enough sense to get in out of the rain.” – Big Trouble in Little China

Whoever took this photo was having a Kodiak moment.

Fairbanks, Alaska.

One thing about Fairbanks (and Alaska) is that it is rougher around the edges than the lower 48.  Everywhere.  They’re so tough there that they make the fries out of real Frenchmen.  Also, other things are a little different:  for example, the Post Office.

I had an acquaintance that I worked with who had come to my workplace from a previous career in the Post Office.  He told a story of a new Postmaster that showed up in town.  I believe that this particular Postmaster had come from the East Coast.  Don’t know why he was in Fairbanks.  Perhaps he was in the Jehovah’s Witness Protection Program?

Regardless, this new Postmaster was going to make changes.

“From now on, we’re going to deliver packages to the doorstep of anyone who gets one.  The days of leaving packages at the doorstep are over.  And, we’ll knock and let the resident know that the package is there.  We can increase customer service, and we will.”

I wrote a letter today.  I might try a number tomorrow, if I feel up to it. 

That’s a great sentiment.  Heck, here in Modern Mayberry, when a package shows up, the USPS drops it right on my front porch, then rings the doorbell, and scampers off.  It’s a nice touch.  It probably takes an additional minute or so for every house.  It works well here, and the biggest danger most mail carriers see is the random housecat with delusions that it is stalking prey in the veldt.

But in Fairbanks it’s a different story – I’ve described people up there as “very friendly people who will generally leave you the hell alone.”

The new Postmaster from the lower 48 didn’t understand why his carriers were so reluctant to implement the “to the door” service for packages.  He heard grumbling, but didn’t understand it – the carriers would do it in town, but they didn’t want to do it for the remote routes.  So, he got in with a carrier, and they ran a remote route together.  I guess that made him a mail escort.

One of the houses was pretty far out, say, 13 miles from the city, up Chena Hot Springs road.  The Postmaster and carrier got out of the truck to deliver the package.  The Postmaster knocked on the door.

Immediately, the door opened as far as the door chain would allow.

“What the hell do you want?” asked the man opening the door.

Behind him, the Postmaster and carrier could see a man pointing a rifle at them, “Tell me they’re Feds!” yelled the man with the rifle.  He kept repeating that.  “Tell me that they’re Feds!  We’ll end them right here and now!”

I use a .30-06 to hunt deer.  That gives me a lot of bang for my buck.

They left the package.  The “to the door” delivery idea was quickly abandoned.  Likewise, I’m certain that Amazon® will never try drone delivery up there – the locals would just think of that as skeet shooting with instant prizes.

The carriers understood the risk, the Postmaster did not.  They knew that Fairbanks is (in a literal sense) the end of the road.  The people that come to Alaska were adventurers, misfits, and fortune seekers.  And some of that group were people wanted for felonies.  There’s a reason that for many years taking pictures of workers at a construction site was considered bad manners.

So, it was a question of risk.  Many people don’t really understand the risks that they take.  In many cases, some risks are entirely overblown.

Case in point:  at a recent high school football game here in Modern Mayberry, there was lightning during the game.  To be clear, the lightning wasn’t coming down around us, the nearest strikes were miles away – probably 8 or 10 miles.  But then I was shocked . . .

. . . that they stopped the game.  All of the players went into the locker rooms, and The Mrs. and I continued to sit on an elevated aluminum structure.  Yawn.

If lightning only followed the path of least resistance, why doesn’t it only strike in France?

I wasn’t really worried.  In the years between 2006 and 2019, 414 people were killed by lightning in the United States.  My chances of being hit were, oh, nearly zero.  Exactly 12 football players were killed by lightning during that entire period.  As badly as our home team was doing that game, well, they could have used something to charge them up.

But lightning?  It is estimated that 243 people are injured each year in the United States by lighting, and 27 killed, on average.  And 1/3 of those killed?  They were inside.

Yes, lightning kills.  How many?  Hardly anyone.

But yet I’m sure that every school district in the country has a lightning policy that says something to the effect of, “If there’s any lightning any nearer than, say, Poland, shut it all down.”  The policy was probably written by lawyers that want to take the danger out of anything and everything.

“Let’s go Brandon”

People rarely understand risks.

The biggest risks for someone dying when they’re young are car accidents.  By far.  The human organism is pretty strong when young.  The main cause of death is, well, being old.  Of the top 10 causes of death in the United States (those top 10 cover over 74% of deaths) all of them but one are things that mainly happen to old people.

Of the top 10, only “unintentional deaths” (6%) are more likely to happen to young people than old.  In Modern Mayberry, those deaths often involve a motorcycle, a ramp, a cow, road flares, super glue, and the phrase, “hold my beer.”

So, risk number one to avoid is getting old, which can be done using only some beer, a motorcycle, a ramp, a cow, road flares, and some super glue.

A Mexican movie stuntman died recently.  I guess Jesus died for your scenes.

I think the reason we focus on some of these risks that are ludicrously low probability is simple:  it is much easier to focus on them, rather than on real risks.

The question I ask myself is this:  What is it that I know, that I’m avoiding?

It’s a powerful question.  A Twinkie® is a much greater danger to my life than a lightning storm.  Do I avoid thinking that?  Do I try to rationalize big risks and run scared from small risks?

What am I trying to hide from myself?

When I answer that question, then I know what the real risks are.  The biggest risk, perhaps is if I become a Postmaster.  Then people would expect me, John Wilder, to be funny, and I’m not sure I could do it.

After all, it’s all in the delivery.

Author: John

Nobel-Prize Winning, MacArthur Genius Grant Near Recipient writing to you regularly about Fitness, Wealth, and Wisdom - How to be happy and how to be healthy. Oh, and rich.

31 thoughts on “The Funniest Article You’ll Read Today About Risk”

  1. Great humor today, John. My greatest risk is reading columns like this and busting a gut.

    Your discussion on lightning reminded me of this clip I saw on Daily Dose Of Internet, which after the lightning intro has a few other examples of hilarious risk.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYIdr_7H5Yw

    Be careful out there and enjoy the weekend, everybody!

  2. Hmm, I so enjoy this site. As a former UPSer, I can identify with some of today’s update (10-8-2021). I never had it so rough and can’t currently share any details equivalent to this. I have sure seen some things though. And I can’t speak for the Post Office (USPS), but in Tennessee where I’m from, UPS drivers soon learn better than to stick around and wait for any person to answer a door unless it’s simply to unsafe to do otherwise, such as people lurking who might be porch pirates. Otherwise we’re the nearest thing to Navy SEALs if they delivered parcels. Well they do deliver parcels, but an entirely different variety. 😁 We can be extremely covert and even good at getting into places that are otherwise secure. 😉. I’ll say no more. If we do knock or ring the doorbell, we’re back in the truck before you’ve even thought about heading to the door. Why? Well until you’ve been interrogated about other packages that you have absolutely no idea even exists, much less where in the system they are; only to find out that they’re not even coming through UPS, but some other carrier. Or the other myriad line of questioning, such as do you know so and so over at UPS? Very rarely do you know the person. And if you do, you get a nice long conversation about this person and any other people they may have known; meanwhile your mental clock is ticking away. Each stop is given a 3 minute allowance from key off to key on. And is UPS hiring? You never intentionally allow yourself to get into a conversation with a resident. You learn quickly. Now businesses are a different animal.

    1. Just noticed my typo. Or rather error that I hadn’t noticed prior. “unless it’s simply to unsafe to do otherwise,” Should be too unsafe. I ain’t no idiot. I just didn’t notice.

  3. The biggest risk we are all facing is having elected a learning disabled marshmallow to the presidency.

      2. Good point. We need to keep in mind that those out front are not the ones in calling the shots. Wasting hate and energy on them is futile, as even if they get replaced it will be someone who was hand-picked by the same people.

    2. Trump is no learning disabled marshmallow. Watch those remarks SW____

  4. Thanks for the Friday humor! Much better for morale than this weeks sobering reality check on the status of our coming CWII. Now hold my beer and watch this!

  6. Seems our current reality functions like a poorly programmed video game that we’re all stuck in. Looking for a back door…

  7. The biggest risk I’ve ever seen from lightning is being trampled by someone panicking from the thunder. Then again, tomorrow might be the day….I’m glad the weather is supposed to be nice.

  8. Thank God places like Alaska still exist. Reminds me of that Bronson movie where he is a trapper trying to get across the border and they come to get him at a cabin and he has dug a hole in the dirt floor while waiting for them to enter with a shotgun.
    While at the local park earlier someone was letting it rip with a .308 or some other one shot and done rifle at a nearby range and you could hear it all the way across the park.
    Some people take the don’t tread on me seriously and there will be no compromise with the comrades.
    USPS? Dominion commie low level apparatchik RATS and they can keep the junk mail.
    Alaska is number one on the bucket list even if it 3000 Miles to Freedomland.

  9. I used to know a guy who had been struck by lightning three times. Twice while golfing. He no longer golfs. He hid under his desk and cried whenever he heard thunder. The only guy I ever heard of who had a military profile against being outside in the rain.

  10. Was remodeling a home in the mountains one time. Me and the boss were standing in the carport/upstairs apartment when lightning struck a large Oak tree on the other side of my truck about 15 feet from us. It blew an eight foot by four inch chunk of wood across the bed of my truck as well as blowing chunks of wood over the house into the backyard and on to the second hole of the golf course behind the house.

    The boss and I kind of jumped a bit and heard a big thump coming from the apartment above us. We ran upstairs to check and saw the electrician sprawled on the floor after falling off an eight foot step ladder. He had been installing a ceiling fan when the lightning hit. Thankfully, other than a bruised back, he was otherwise uninjured.

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