The Only Thing You Need To Read Today: Wilder’s End Times Book Review: The Face Of The Crisis And The Aftermath

“If that’s the end of time, I got a front row seat with a big tub of buttered popcorn and a greasy half-live chicken leg.” – Anchorman 2:  The Legend Continues

A guy on a tractor just drove by yelling about the end of everything.  I think it was Farmer Geddon.

I think that Turchin has proven that, at least in some circumstances, he can show when trouble is coming.   Again, I’d like to see his database and understand in greater detail how it works, but if you look at

  • Every elite scrambling for position,
  • Every mechanism possible being found to extract another dollar from a consooooomer so that the Wealth Pump can be fed, and
  • the current graph of the interest payments that the United States will have to pay sooner rather than later, it’s clear:

There Be Dragons Here.

How the crisis unfolds, however, is dependent upon the structure of society itself, according to Turchin.  “ . . . we cannot understand social breakdown without a deep analysis of the power structures within societies.”  Turchin even notes this about Barbara Walter:  “This is where the analysis by Barbara Walter in How Civil Wars Start often becomes woefully inadequate, and sometimes outright naïve.”  He skipped the part where she eats lead paint chips with her avocado toast, but, hey.

Give Turchin his props:  he’s calling out mass immigration and stupid academics.  I think he might be especially fun to hang with after a few beers.

This is what A.I. thinks Turchin and I having a beer would look like.  Guess I’ll have to dig my mortarboard out.

But back to power structures.  Big Government is scary enough, but when Apple® or Google™ is holding the leash, it becomes even scarier.  I like capitalism, but what we have here is called by Turchin “Plutocracy” but I like the more common (in our circles) name of Kleptocracy.  That’s what it is, really.

Societal power is now, really, in lockstep with the Kleptocracy.  It has created this weird amalgamation of Leftist/Communist/Corporatist power.  At this point, Turchin attempts to analyze the power structures of the United States to guess at what the future might bring, noting that his work is, “nowhere near advanced enough to achieve such a feat of modeling.”

Honesty.

I love it.

I’m going to take an aside here based on comments I’ve had so far in this series of posts.  It isn’t communist or socialist to question the rules put in place by the Kleptocrats to pump more money to them.  We haven’t had true laissez-faire capitalist system in this country since the 1880s, at least.  Huge corporations are not laissez-faire – they’re government creations, and to be against them isn’t to be against capitalism.

I do think that we have the idea because a system has worked in the past that it just needs tweaks.  That is simply not the case – our system has brought us to where we are today.  Simple actions like having end-by dates on corporations, turning senators back to state-appointed positions, abolishing all Federal income tax and getting the primary funds for the central government from tariffs . . . radical ideas.  But we have to stop the wealth pump, and true libertarians should be all over this because domination over liberty from a corporation is no different than domination over liberty by a government.

End of digression.  Back to the book.

Why did the libertarian cross the road?  “Am I being detained?”

The most common outcome, Turchin notes, is that lots of elites (and wannabes) simply realize they can’t be elite anymore.  Obviously, this will be uncomfortable for many, many professors who now have to work 40 hours at Starbucks™ instead of handing out worthless anthropology and ancient Japanese literature degrees.

This doesn’t happen gradually.  It happens when the University closes.  As we’ve discussed before (link below on Seneca’s Cliff), things are built only slowly, but collapse in an instant.  The extreme case, which is now very, very much on the table is that the elite positions (and some of the wannabes) are eliminated as a result of Civil War 2.0.

The Economy – At Seneca’s Cliff?

Who will lead that war?  Probably someone on the fringe of the current Elite who is angry.  Why from the Elite?  They have connections and power that allow them to put together a credible alternative power structure fairly quickly.  Examples from our history?

George Washington was as rich and famous as Elon back in the day, and it wasn’t a bunch of poor dudes that ran either the Union or the Confederacy.

Of course, an alternative is to shut down the Wealth Pump.  I mean, it will be shut down one way or another, but if it’s done before things are in a ditch, it might be better, though I’m fairly certain the first wheel went into that ditch back before 1990.  Turchin notes that he thinks if we shut the Wealth Pump down now, well, that turns Elites into radicals in big numbers and will result in an even bloodier war.

Astrophysicists started a radical protest group:  Black Matter Lives.

From his study, the growth of violence and instability isn’t linear – it builds on itself like an epidemic – Turchin calls this the “virus of radicalism”.  Turchin notes that:  “As long as the power of revolutionary groups is less than the power of the state’s coercive apparatus, the overall level of violence can be suppressed to a low level.”

They want to stop the signal.  But there’s one lesson that even the Soviets learned:  you can’t stop the signal.

Why do the Elite so desperately want your guns?  It gives the average American citizen a real veto over intolerable actions by the government.  This is why the Left and Levis™ jeans want to take your modern sporting rifle:  it makes you a more compliant consoooomer.  And if they get the 2nd Amendment, the 1st won’t be far behind, because ideas like these are dangerous.

This explains all the effort in censoring places like this one.  The ideas here are dangerous, and oh, so sexy.

Turchin’s “everything as-is” scenario shows “an outbreak of serious violence during the 2020s and, if nothing is done to shut down the (Wealth P)ump, a repeat every fifty to sixty years.”  Civil wars are what turn radicals into moderates – von Clausewitz wrote about this centuries ago.  Wars are won when the will of the people to fight is erased.  Places like this one keep spirits high, and attack those whose goal is the destruction of our freedom and way of life.

I honestly hope Joe Biden gets better.  And recovers from his dementia, too.

Who else have they attacked?

Turchin, writing before Tucker Carlson was fired, said, “Carlson is interesting because he is the most outspoken antiestablishment critic operating within the corporate media.  Whereas media such as CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times, and The Washington Post are losing credibility, among the general population . . . Carlson is growing ever more popular.”

Now that, my friends, explains it all, and Turchin’s comments show the real reason Carlson was silenced, and Turchin notes (as I have opined in some places) that Tucker is the real nucleus of the Right.

Trump’s real sins had nothing to do with January 6, it had to do with him not starting wars and actually trying to stop immigration, which the Wealth Pump requires.

What does Turchin say that history tells us (p. 223-4)?

  • In 2/3 of cases, most of the Elite stopped being elite.
  • In 1/6 of cases, the Elite was “targeted for extermination.”
  • “The probability of ruler assassination was 40%.”
  • 75% of cases “ended in revolutions or civil wars or both.”
  • In 1/5 of cases, “the civil war dragged on for a century or longer.”
  • 60% of cases led to “the death of the state.”

Grim.  Really, really grim.

We are at the brink of a civil war.  I’ve been saying that for years now.  One branch of my family moved to the United States from Germany in 1890 because they saw a massive European war coming.  They left 25 years too soon.

Seeing what’s coming isn’t hard.  I can tell you the future in some instances.  If I walk out in front of a speeding bus, I’m going to die.  It’s not clairvoyance, it’s happening to us, right here and now.  Just as my family saw the European war that would known as World War I coming, I am certain that we are on the steps to Civil War 2.0.

It took a lot to get this picture out of the A.I. – I can get the A.I. to draw everyone from Seinfeld, but it draws the line at Morgan Freeman.

I also cannot stress enough that Civil War 2.0 isn’t my wish, this is the data and there is, at this point, nothing anyone can do to stop it.  I believe the road ahead will be more terrible in some locations than many can even imagine.  I do still believe that on the other side, the torch of Liberty will still be burning brightly in a new world where what is True, Beautiful, and Good will be recognized as such.  Why?  Because in the end, Liberty wins, despite all of those who would try to steal it away – it burns in the hearts of all who I would call men, and is loved deeply by all of those who I would call women.

Which does not include Barbara F. Walter and her fat, lead paint chip eating face.

It’s a rare book where I put it down, look at the conclusions, and say, “Damn, I wish I had written that book.”  Turchin brings it home.  If you like reading non-fiction and are a regular at Wilder Wealthy and Wise, I recommend you read this one, though Turchin sucks at adding memes to his work.

Author: John

Nobel-Prize Winning, MacArthur Genius Grant Near Recipient writing to you regularly about Fitness, Wealth, and Wisdom - How to be happy and how to be healthy. Oh, and rich.

39 thoughts on “The Only Thing You Need To Read Today: Wilder’s End Times Book Review: The Face Of The Crisis And The Aftermath”

  2. Even though Turchin links to Amazon on his web site, if you want to purchaes a copy, try abebooks.com. I just ordered a copy and got one for under $20. Feels good not to feed amazobeast when possible.

  3. An alternative would be the Bible. It states that God after man fell allowed Satan to run this joint. So what do we expect? God says when the Walking Dude’s days are numbered after literal hell on Earth.

    The good news is God wins, read to the end.

    1. Me? My preps have been in for years. Need to rotate some things.

      First step is moving somewhere safe. Why would anyone move to Kharkov, when there’s a seventh famous battle at Kharkov?

  7. Excellent analysis, sir. Thank you!
    There’s really only one thing that, frankly, I’m quite surprised you didn’t address.
    It’s a question of truly pivotal importance. Its answer could quite conceivable change the very course of human history for countless generations to come.
    At this coming party, whatever form it eventually takes:
    Will there be cake???

        1. Damn it! The world is just full of delicious lies these days.

          First, no delicious cake. And now I’m starting to wonder if all the people with hot chicks as their profile picture, maybe aren’t actually hot chicks…

          This is very disturbing.

          On a totally unrelated note, I need to go cancel a couple of dates.

  9. The future lies on the far side of mountains of skulls, rivers of blood, and oceans of tears.
    The only choice is: whose?
    Prepare physically, mentally, and morally to follow up that choice with action.
    “You may not be interested in politics, but politics is interested in you.”

  10. Excellent writing, and thank you for sharing your insights. I’ve come to realize that we really are living in the Matrix—except we aren’t plugged into machines to serve as batteries for AI… we’re plugged into credit systems to fund the wealth pump until we’re run dry.

  11. You ancestors heard the Es kommt loud and clear, and made sensible choices.

    Better 25 years too early than 25 seconds too late.

    There is nothing foreseeable that can stop what’s coming here, and li9kely sooner than later.

    Leaving only two choices:

    Ignore it.
    Or prepare.

  12. Looking at historical collapses is important of course but necessarily inadequate for what is coming, thanks to technology and of course the sheer volume of firearms in civilian hands.

  13. John, thanks for doing all the hard work so I can look smart at cocktail parties (which, of course, I never attend).

    History is never precisely the same, but it does rhyme.

    Did he theorize on what the categories of outcomes were for the successor states to civil war?

    1. He did give several scenarios, most of which were very gloomy, including recurrent wars from the Wealth Pump. (My take) Best result was when the Elites were pretty much wiped out.

  14. I recommend folks read Scripture and select attendant commentaries to track and endure these times. Also, web sites that further your Biblical understanding, especially as relates to the current moment and culture. Ask God for guidance and power in your evaluations.

    ‘Because in the end, Liberty wins, despite all of those who would try to steal it away – it burns in the hearts of all who I would call men, and is loved deeply by all of those who I would call women.’

    Well, you don’t call many females ‘women’, in that case.

    Women don’t want freedom. Freedom is hard, dangerous, skeery, and often PEZ-deficient. Women want security (for themselves), and limitless personal sovereignty (from order established by God and man). Consider the past century in your nation.

    A rapidly decreasing number of men want freedom, which I think you call Liberty. An unfortunate word, given Liberty is the name of a goddess, originally Roman Libertas . . . indeed the very entity that the American elites worship, as stylized in NY Harbor. To them, that statue signifies national bondage. Cheers!

    1. I call my female a woman.

      We can quibble on words, but after a beer or two we wouldn’t find a difference in what you and I mean.

      1. We mean the same thing of course, but words matter, obviously because they penetrate the mind and invoke. If I hear it God also hears it, and He sure does hate Liberty. She hates you too.

        Freedom now, freedom is a fine word that doesn’t mean a goddess.

  15. The true source of the oligarch’s power is the Federal Reserve:

    ‘Give me the ability to coin a nation’s currency, and I care very little for who writes it’s laws’.
    Baron Amschel Von Rothschild (inventor of the central banking system).

    Why doesn’t that birther of modern oligarchs and plutocratic, kelptocratic oligarchies care? Because he and his kind own said governments with the money the system ‘coins’.

    There is a real and tangible reason the oligarchs made a central banking system – and then eliminated gold and silver as money (and a bi-metallic currency base is essential for the success and health of the middle class, as silver the currency of gentlemen is the middle class’ lifeblood). The global central banking system was/is the lynch pin of their successful theft of the republic from ‘We the People’, and control of it’s current destiny and trajectory.

    There is a reason Hussein and Qaddafi got wacked – they tried to do away with the central banking ponzy scheme. The elimination of central banks is the only real (non-violent) threat they face.

    Unless and until the Federal Reserve is eliminated, it’s frn’s and future CBDC are thrown into the dust bin of history, the faces, and seats those sit in will be different, but the song will be the same.

    1. Yet they grew beforehand. Eternal corporate life is probably worse than a central bank, or, perhaps, the two are connected.

      1. I dropped the above post yesterday morning, and almost made this observation in it because it shows this isn’t the first time this shit show has happened. In fact it happens with observable regularity.

        There was a book out recently that tracked the death of empires through history, and found the common thread was the birth of an oligarchic class that then ran the empire for their own benefit, and not the empire’s benefit as a whole. The one common thread each had was a debasement of the currency (to pay for burgeoning imperial expansion costs). The debasement/reissuance lead to bottlenecks at which oligarchs latched, grew and flourished, to the detriment of the empire and it’s citizens as a whole. Written by a finance dude, iirc.

        I didn’t mention it because I didn’t have time to research who the author and title are (still don’t sorry).

        But suffice to say this is one of history’s cycles. Here comes the 2nd verse, same as the 1st, a little bit louder and a little bit worse.

        Adino

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