January 2022 – Page 2 – Wilder, Wealthy, and Wise

How I’m Doing My Resolutions, Complete With Rocky II

“Well, you should have had him! Now don’t let up on this man. This man is dangerous!” – Rocky II

After he got the “Eye of the Tiger” he got a lifetime ban from the zoo.

It’s the new year, so, I have to buy a new calendar. Objective achieved!

When I was a young kid, say eight or nine, there were several things that I never quite understood. The first was the impact of foreign debt flow on monetary policy. The second was why people got so excited about changing from one year to another.

At best, New Year’s Eve seemed a useless waste of an evening. My parents would occasionally go to see friends, occasionally they’d host the party at our house. They’d talk, and drink, and generally have a good time. My interest in hanging out with them approached zero. Oh, sure, they were all nice, but the “got your nose” game loses its luster past the age of, oh, one.

What’s the sentence for shoplifting a calendar? 12 months.

Honestly, I really thought the concept was overblown until 2020 – I couldn’t wait to see that year in the rearview mirror. 2021? Potentially worse than 2020, and I’m glad it’s gone, too. I’m (honestly) not very optimistic about 2022.

But one thing I have learned is that I can use the concept of a new year, as stupid as it is, for me.

The nice thing about most Christmas/New Year holidays is that I have time off – time to think, time to get back with the family, and time to reassess:

who I am,

Am I following the virtues that I value? Am I being honest and truthful? Am I doing the things that provide the most value? Is my driver’s license data correct, I mean, with the exception of the weight because everybody lies about that?

what I am, and

Am I doing the things out in the world that add the most value? Am I changing the world for the better? What are the things I need to stop doing? What am I intentionally avoiding? Did I leave the waffle iron on?

where I’m going.

Am I on a path, or am I just wandering? What is keeping me off the path? Do I really have to wear clothes outside like the court order says?

Drinking alcohol doesn’t solve my problems. On the other hand, neither does drinking milk . . . .

I do this annually now. I find that one of the best places to think about these things is in the hypnagogic state where I’m not awake or asleep. I’ve had some very good insights during those moments. It’s (for me) a great place to find uncomfortable truth – things I really already knew, but that I was hiding from myself. Those insights can be utterly lost in the clutter of everyday life and the constant actions and demands.

Some of the past successes from these New Year reviews have been amazing for me, lost weight, and bad habits quit among them. I’ve used those times to understand me better.

I used to be a taxi driver, but the riders were boring. About all they said was, “Hey, I don’t live in the woods . . .”

I’d give you a list of what I’m doing/changing/quitting this year, but I’m not sure it’s at all interesting. My life is mainly a fairly boring one and except for the “acquire a chimpanzee named Bear and ride around the United States having wacky adventures” most of the items on the list are probably all items on millions of lists belonging to other people.

What happens next, though, is action. Thinking is one part, but once the decisions have been made, life comes down to taking action and making sure that I have sufficient discipline to do what I’m looking to do.

With small goals, discipline is easy. It’s not changing habits and patterns that I have built into my life over the course of decades. Changing habits that have been around since I was 18? Those are far harder. For those levels of issues, the only real solution is fanatical discipline, repeated and sustained. Muscle isn’t built on one good day at the gym. Muscle is built on hours of effort and pain.

And if the unvaxxed are a danger to the vaxxed, aren’t I putting myself in danger from the unvaxxed if I get the vaxx?

For me, the best goals are based on real, hard data. When lifting weights, the iron never lies. Choosing those things that I can describe with absolutes is crucial. “I will not ever . . .” is much better than “I’ll try not to . . .” When I combine “I will not ever” with a value? I have a goal that is stark and sleek, and one I can’t fudge.

I want this to be about the change I want versus me. I want it to be measured, clearly, in absolutes. I want the absolutes to be in my control. If I say, “I will never kill a zebra with a Ronco® Pocket Fisherman™, that’s something that’s absolute, even if that stupid zebra had it coming.

One example of a hard goal is dealing with The Mrs. When we met and dating got serious, I told her simply, “I will never lie to you.” I haven’t. It’s simple.

It’s absolute.

I also don’t have to revisit that every year. Since we’ve been married, that’s been a promise I’ve kept.

I think these absolutes scare the Left. They like to deal in degrees and shades of grey. A fudge here. A cheat there. A value subverted, and then (in many cases) a value inverted.

The last part is about failure.

Just because I start a change, doesn’t mean I have to follow through. I’m allowed to change my goal, especially as my knowledge changes. Heck, I could even be getting the opposite effects from a change that I anticipated. Time to reassess.

The last part is failure. Just because I decided to do something and failed doesn’t mean that I shouldn’t try again. It doesn’t mean that I should be afraid of trying again. In many cases, (like Rocky II, for instance) the difference between failure and victory is just getting up one more time.

Also, with the Biden administration, failure is not an option. It comes with the basic package.

Finally, I’ve learned to not fear success. What happens if I succeed with all of my goals? That has happened, and more than once.

Add more goals. I’m breathing. I’m not done. And I’m not perfect. More discipline, and getting up one more time? That’s the key.

I still think celebrating a new year is silly, but I’m going to use it this time. With enough discipline, 2022? That could be, for me, the best year ever. Heck, might as well put the new calendar to good use . . . .

Gold, Silver, And The End Of The World

“What do you know about gold, Moneypenny?” – Goldfinger

Why don’t pirates travel on mountain roads? S’curvy.

A reader writes: “. . . if you could explain to me the rationale behind buying gold or silver as a hedge against economic collapse, I would appreciate it.” I answered by sending him bikini graph after bikini graph, but yet he persisted in wanting to know an actual answer.

I don’t think anyone will complain that this one is a repeat . . . .

He had me cornered. I wrote to him (embellished for this post and clarified for readability):

Thank you for the question. I promise to answer, just as long as you give my dog bag safely. He may be old and one-eyed and have diabetes and alopecia . . . we call him, “Lucky.”

It’s good that he’s not a dinosaur – he’d probably be called an eyesaur.

I thought that I had already answered this question and looked for the post.

As I’ve got over 1,000 up, I couldn’t find it after I looked for about 22 seconds. Maybe I developed notes on it and never posted? Maybe I’m just lazy at searching. In the worst-case scenario, a previous version exists, and everyone just has to deal with this new, superior post.

The question is a subtle one. The first part of the answer is the degree of collapse. I’ll start out with this idea: how bad does it get?

Another Boring Wednesday: Would I rather have a ton of gold on a Wednesday morning than not? Of course. But I’d probably worry about George Clooney and his wisecracking band of thieves breaking into Stately Wilder Mansion.
Personal Economic Problems: Again, in a sequel, having that ton of gold is still great, but I still have that pesky George Clooney problem. In reality, gold is somewhat less liquid than cash, but having a bunch of it is still nice. Also, if you bought gold in 1990, you would have had zero profit on it until 2006. This was mainly due to sane economic policy and high-interest rates that tamed inflation.

Or is this why they were always after his Lucky Charms®?

Recession: What’s going on in the economy? If you look closely, silver and gold actually dropped in value at the start of the Great Recession in the 2000s. As people liquidated their “stuff” so they could still buy the G.I. Joe® with the Kung Fu™ grip for their kid at Christmas, the price actually dropped. For a while. Then the price jumped up when it became clear that the Fed® would print as much money as required to choke every person on the planet. In the fiat world, gold and silver are something I’d look to have.
Depression – 1930s Style: This is a hard analogy – back in the 1930s, the dollar was backed in gold, until FDR (press S to spit) stole the gold from the American people. Now? The dollar is nothing more than, to quote Aerosmith, “a lick and a promise.” (See below)
Weimar-Style Hyperinflation: I don’t think we’ll get here, until there’s a lack of faith in the dollar. Brandon is doing his best to make Jimmy Carter look like a master of economics, so, if hyperinflation hits? Gold is awesome, and you might be able to repay your mortgage with five or six pre-1965 silver quarters. So, yes, gold and silver make sense. A lot of sense.

In a Leftist world, everyone is a Billionaire. And also starving.

Country Collapse: What happens if the country ceases to be? It has happened again and again through history, especially with large “empire-like” countries that don’t have any sort of ethnic commonality. Japan will always be Japan because there are Japanese and it’s a nation, not a country. China, likewise. Without a functioning country, there is no nation to fall back on. This is where we add another precious metal: So, yes, gold and silver, but understand that it might be some time before it’s useful again.
International Collapse: Rome provides a powerful example here. In Great Britain, they’re constantly finding hordes of money – including silver money, and gold. Why? Because people stopped using it, and you can’t eat it. Did that last forever? Of course not, but 100 years is nearly long enough. Lead is nice here, too.

Who sang “Can’t Touch This” for Caesar? 1100 Hammer.

Civilizational Collapse: What happens if there’s no oil for the cars – anywhere? What happens if we don’t have phosphorus for fertilizer? Bad things. Gold and silver might be helpful, but lead is much better here. If the warlord wants your stuff and you can’t keep it from him, welcome to no longer having that stuff.
A Kamala Harris presidency: Looks pretty much like number 8, but with more makeup.
A Neutron Star Eating The Earth: I suggest investing in SpaceX®.

I think that we underestimate the likelihood of things getting really, really bad. To give an example, I once worked at the headquarters of a big company. They asked me to look at disaster recovery. I looked at all of the natural hazards that might hit the company. The most likely disaster would hit the headquarters once every three hundred years.

“Huh,” I said to my boss, foreshadowing future writing endeavors, “a new civil war is far more likely than that . . . I mean if the company lasts that long. Companies go out of business all the time.”

He was not amused. Corporations tend to not like actual reality to interfere in their projections. But, I maintain I was right. How many companies have ceased to exist – big companies – since 2000? I’ll leave that work to the reader. Enron®, anyone?

Country music and calculators are both produced by Texas instruments.

Listen, I don’t mean to sound paranoid, but banks are giving mortgages out at 3.3% and inflation is at 6%, which means that banks will lose money every year as long as inflation is a thing. How can they do this? Volume!

No, I’m kidding. The Fed® is giving them tons of money to lend cheaply to keep housing prices up. When mortgage rates go up? Then the housing bubble bursts. So, we could end up in Scenario 3., 5., or 6. very, very quickly.

Gold and silver (in my NON FINANCIAL ADVISOR) opinion are awesome in most scenarios. If it devolves past the point where order matters at all, then it comes down to weapons, political connections, preps, and sheer dumb luck. If nothing happens, then my kids will get to enjoy some shiny metals after I pass away.

What’s the best way to tune a bagpipe? A pitchfork.

I would, however, not want to put all of my eggs in any one basket. I will personally limit the amount of gold and silver I own to about 10% of my net worth. Why? Random number – not bad if things go well in the rest of the world and gold and silver don’t go up in value. If things go really south, it’s a decent enough hedge to act as a parachute as the plane goes down in flames.

So, that’s my answer: it depends. What do you think? What Scenario above is the most likely? What’s missing?

Ohhh, Lucky, come here, boy . . . oh, wait, he’s deaf, too . . . .

(Appended Graph)

Civil War 2.0 Weather Report: January 6 Anniversary

“That shockwave created a subspace fracture.” – Sealab 2021

What’s more than step 9, but not quite to step 10? This clock.

Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
Open War.

As close as we are to the precipice of war, be careful. Things could change at any minute. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue: Front Matter – January 6, The Anniversary – Violence And Censorship Update – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – The Cracks Widen – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 640 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.

January 6, The Anniversary

January 6, 2021, a date that makes Leftist underwear uncomfortable. After a year, we can certainly look back at what Joe Biden called, “The worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War.”

From Joe’s perspective, that certainly makes sense, since his view of democracy is his people counting the votes. The gathered people there believed what a majority (56%!) of the American people believe: the election was rigged. How rigged? That 56% of American people believe it was that fraud that led to Joe Biden having a Secret Service detail with spare diapers rather than a nursing staff at a rest home filled with nurses for him to try to grope.

How long can Joe Biden wait in line to vote? That Depends®.

The news was breathless, and January 6 has been used as Leftist propaganda to try to drive people away from the Right. The list of mainstream news accomplices is endless. Anderson Cooper called it the “worst single act of political violence since the Civil War,” apparently having forgotten that an actual bomb was used in the building in 1971. Oh, sorry, those were Leftists blowing things up, so it’s okay.

The numbers break out the way you might think: 65%+ of people on the Right think the coverage is overblown. 60% of people on the Left think there hasn’t been enough coverage. Guess who runs the newspapers and media?

Despite damage being limited to “broken glass and busted doors” inside the Capitol building, the cost of “enhanced security measures” was added to bring the total cost of the “riot” up to $30,000,000.

But a riot? Most of the protestors were unarmed, and hurt no one. There were 15 cops sent to the hospital (though data is lacking) it appears none of the injuries were all that bad, and they only kept one overnight. My third grade birthday party was more violent, but I’ll tell you, Grandma could take a punch.

Contrast that to this: several of the Capitol Police were later admonished for taking selfies with the protestors, and seemed more amused than frightened.

Except for that one cop who shot an unarmed woman in the neck. You know, the cop who was so competent that he left his pistol in a bathroom.

This was one Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone that Leftists didn’t like.

No, this wasn’t a “riot”, and the Capitol wasn’t “stormed.” This was a protest of a stolen election. Had this been a real riot, and had the Capitol really been stormed? The protesters would have brought weapons, and the Capitol would have fallen that day. The main reason that didn’t happen? People didn’t want to take over the Capitol and hadn’t really thought of it.

The second reason that didn’t happen? The FBI didn’t have enough time to recruit more people. Yup – the FBI has admitted that they had informants in the crowd, and some people have gone on record that those same FBI informants were the ones opening doors and inviting people inside.

Now it has been a year, and the Left will attempt to use January 6, 2021 to further divide the nation and portray anyone to the Right of AOC as an extremist.

Violence And Censorship Update

The big news is from Twitter® this month, though it was a slow month in general:

Ghislaine Maxwell Trial

Something bothered Twitter™ about @TrackerTrial’s coverage of the Ghislaine Maxwell trial. As I understand it, it was just updates from actual news inside the trial. Result: permanent ban. @TrackerTrial didn’t ban itself . . . .

Not an original, but very funny.

The ‘Rona

Say what you will about COVID, it looks like the ‘Rona is also excellent at killing the truth. There have been dozens of documented cases where the “official narrative” has had to be walked back because it was, well, a lie. And people get banned for any information that is counter to the “official narrative” even (and perhaps especially) if it’s a lie. Twitter© took out two folks this time:

Dr. Robert Malone, virologist and immunologist was banned. Also? Marjorie Taylor Greene, member of the House of Representatives (and not at all a virologist or immunologist).

I can’t speak to Ms. Greene’s ban, but I can talk (a bit) about the heresy of Dr. Malone. One of his early transgressions was saying the spike protein might be dangerous. Since the “all death” category is up about 40% this year according to insurance companies and healthy athletes are suffering heart attacks on the field, it looks like he just might be right.

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real-time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Violence is up this month, but only slightly. December isn’t (usually) a big month for violence, so that’s to be expected. I would expect the next few months to remain calm as well, perhaps turning back up in March or April.

Political Instability:

Up is more unstable, and it ticked down this month for the first time in a while. Deteriorating economic conditions could bring this up quickly.

Economic:

The drop in economic confidence continued this month.

Illegal Aliens:

This data was at record levels for three months this year. Now it’s just a record for this time of year, nearly triple last December.

The Cracks Widen

The last time the Pew® group did a study of how divided we are as a country was in 2017. It was eye-opening, for me. It showed that we as a nation were growing farther apart, faster. The data went back to the early 1990s, and showed that we were splitting apart until 9/11.

For a time, 9/11 became a unifying story in the middle of a sea of polarization. The country marched into multiple wars with (nearly) unanimous consent. In the end, though, those wars just sapped the treasury and disillusioned nearly everyone. The culmination of that wasn’t the execution of Osama Bin Laden, nope. The culmination of that was our panicked withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Remember when they ran Idiocracy as a film, and not on CNN®?

We now have no unified measure of what it is to be an American. If you talk to the Left, literally everyone has the right to what America is. To them, a good American is someone on a benefits program and a predictable vote for the Left. Language and culture not required.

What, even, does America stand for? As I’ve written before, those in the Globalist camp (not exactly the same as Leftists, but they root for the same team) think that everything that’s legal defines what is moral. Obviously, they’re not the same, but the Globalists work long and hard to get dollars – that is their only god.

Is that all that the United States is? A franchise opportunity waiting to exploit every legal opportunity?

No. It is not.

In part, though, our current crisis is a crisis not of will, but of vision. There is no single thing that unites a country when members of the Left describe the flag of the United States as “frightening” and “hateful.”

I actually believe that there are a considerable number of people on the Left who are of good conscience and want to make the world better. Oddly, though, it has been reproduced again and again that Leftists simply cannot stand people on the Right.

So, what does that leave us?

LINKS