Trip to the Arctic Circle – Conclusion

“Ward, I’m very worried about the Beaver.” – June Cleaver, “Leave it to Beaver”

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I know it doesn’t look especially finger-y, but this is Finger Rock, at Finger Mountain. From another view, it looks much more finger-esque, but that photo wasn’t as good. I know that’s like showing you a picture I took of Mt. Rushmore from inside Lincoln’s nose, but, hey, you get what you pay for.

As we drove farther north, on the right I saw a rock that looked like a finger, jutting proudly out of the ground, as if some gigantic stone megalith man was attempting to free himself from the millions of tons of earth smothering him. It reminded me of what Mel Gibson feels his career is like right now.

We stopped a mile down the road at . . . Finger Mountain. In the rest of the free world, Finger Mountain would be a good excuse to put in a gravel pit, crunch up some rocks, and continue mankind’s attempt to pave the planet. At Finger Mountain, it was a good place to put some bathrooms and a few placards. The first placard described a local herb that grows in the tundra. Said herb makes a tasty tea, with the unfortunate side effect that it contains an incredibly powerful laxative. Where are the junior high kids when you need them?

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This plant probably allowed many a native Alaskan to play some wicked practical jokes on explorers. “Tea, sure, we’ve got tea.” Snicker.

The best part about Finger Mountain is that it allowed us to get up and walk around a bit. We had begun to contour our bodies to fit the seats in the vehicle, and getting out and stretching felt good. For a five-year-old who’s normally extraordinarily active to be placed in a car and see . . . yet another batch of scraggly trees, well, Finger Mountain was good for The Boy’s soul. When’s the last time you were so happy you danced?

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The distortion field is on again. Did nobody ever tell The Boy to not mix his camo patterns?

Looking north from Finger Mountain, the pipeline and the road stretched off into the distance, toward Prudhoe Bay and the sweet, sweet oil. If you look at the pipeline from the air, you’ll see that as the road curves up and around it again and again it makes endless $ patterns, like the one you see here. It also makes endless $ for Alaskans. I think that maybe a secret cabal designed this. It surely couldn’t be . . . coincidence.

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Where money and oil intersect . . . oh, wait, that’s always. These are just road intersections with a pipeline.

As I said before, most of Finger Mountain would be gravel in your state, and, frankly I can’t why that’s not a bad idea here, as well. I think if we keep digging, we’d find that the Earth is made of . . . rocks. Most of ‘em just like these.

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That’s the problem with Alaska. Have a random pile of rocks? Make it part of a national park.

As we closed in on the Arctic Circle, lots of things went through my mind, but the continually repeating one is that we were nearly 200 miles from the nearest spare auto parts and wrecker, and I’m driving a car that I maintained. The road continued to be good, and aside from the few times that I hit washboarding so bad that my car was essentially no longer rolling but bouncing from the tops of these (not so good for steering control) I’ve got to say that the road was far better than I’d expected.

Also, there were occasional signs to lighten the mood in the car:

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Yeah, the sign really says that. No trees around here, either. Beavers musta got ’em. Either that or Meryl Streep clear cut the tundra.

NEXT: The Arctic Circle and Home Again

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2006

“It’s not the years, honey, it’s the mileage.” – Indiana Jones, Raiders of the Lost Ark

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This one is the standard tourist shot, except for the Bermuda Shorts and black socks.

Up the road we continued, seeing the same pipe and the same tundra for miles and miles. The tundra itself is a very thin layer of usable soil, while underneath is a biological wasteland devoid of life. I imagine this is much like the surface of Keanu Reeves’ brain.

We finally, after traversing Beaver Slide, made it to . . . The Arctic Circle. Inexplicably, the road is again paved at about this point, marking the first paving in about seventy miles of road.

Most tourists take a picture of the front of the sign. We did, too. We also took a picture of the back of the sign. Seems like you should not allow certain people to have spray paint, but, what the heck. They didn’t mess with the front, so we could get a nice picture.

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Even the vandals in Alaska are nice.

Most people stopped, got out, took a picture and left. Probably a good idea. I don’t think basking in the circleness of the Arctic makes you smarter or anything, even though the Arctic Circle line is moving about 45 feet (57 meters) a year to the north. It’s really a case of been there, done that. I emptied the gas can that I’d brought into the tank again, lamenting (slightly) that I’d brought a vehicle that had 137,000 some-odd miles on it. I reassured myself that I’d only have to push it halfway home, since each hill has another side, right?

We stopped at the Hot Spot Café on our way back home. Any other place in the world, the Hot Spot would be known as “three construction trailers.” In Alaska, it’s an outpost of civilization.

Think about it . . . the Hot Spot doesn’t have electricity from a utility, there’s no phone, there’s no mail delivery, and the credit card that I used may not be billed for some time, since they used one of those old-time card imprint machines to make the slip.

The Mrs. was looking at buying a shirt. The Hot Spot Café logo is . . . a naked girl in a coffee cup. I didn’t know that The Mrs. would approve of such a purchase, yet here she was buying a shirt with a nude chick on it. Hmm. Here’s what it looks like:
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Okay, perhaps I made this out to be bigger than it was. But, women, coffee, and burgers. Is that heaven or what?

As you can see I bought the hat pin version. The Mrs., after seeing that she would be advertising unclothed women was a bit aghast, and put the shirt back on the shelf, like she had touched a lizard. I noticed that the shirt was stacked right under rack of sling shots with the Hot Spot logo right in the center of some silky material. In actuality, The Mrs. informed me that those weren’t sling shots, but thong underwear. I decided not to buy a pair because I thought they weren’t in my color.

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Even bears like the Hot Spot.

I wanted to buy gas at the Hot Spot, but apparently the pump had been broken since Nixon was president, and they sent me down the road a half a mile to where the pumps were working. On the way I mused about what life would be like on the Yukon. The Mrs. indicated that I would die, lacking the Internet.

I bought gas on the banks of the Yukon at $3.79, only $1.00 more than in Fairbanks. The couple in front of us bought 220 gallons for their boat. I remarked that was a lot of gas, but The Mrs. pointed out that running out of gas on the Yukon River might be a bad idea, what with the starving to death and all.

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If Indiana Jones had a boat, it would look just like this, and be right where this one is.

On the way home I ran into some folks that had thrown a tire. I stopped to help and saw an acquaintance helping out, so I lent my jack. Turns out my acquaintance had just stopped to help some people he didn’t know. Fairbanks is like that.

Finally, home. Cold beer.

Been there.

Done that.

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The mud from the Haul Road covered the Wildermobile in a fine dirt patina, about a quarter-inch thick. If I did this trip a few more times, I could have a really dirty car.

To the Arctic Circle . . . and Beyond. Part II

I don’t want to live in a pipe, buttmunch!” – Beavis, Beavis and Butthead

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Ho-Hum. More Alaska landscapes. .

During our few, blessed miles of pavement, there was a scenic overlook, complete with those steel thingys that the Committee of Old School Teachers (COST) puts information on that only a school teacher would be interested in, and then, only if it was in their subject. Things like, “Cortez discovered he had hemorrhoids at this location in 1522. Amazing!”

In typical Alaska-fashion, these steel sign holders were blank, the signs either removed to patch a camper shell, or, more likely, were never installed. Well, not entirely blank. Someone named Rachel Lovelace was there on Aug. 29, 2006. Likewise, someone had left very good instructions on the steel surface in pencil:

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The other thing about the Haul Road is that there are very few bathrooms. By bathrooms, I mean bathrooms with doors. As to other bathrooms, well, there’s 416 miles of them, 832 if you count both sides of the road.

As you drive up the road, you can’t help but notice that something’s following you. It’s the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. It’s sneaky the way it meanders up and down the hills, sometimes poking underground for a while. I guess that’s okay. Pipe can be sneaky if it wants to be, especially if it’s carrying sweet, sweet oil. But it’s still boring. Pipe is just a fancy hole.

The other things following you are trucks and other rubberneckersexplorers. A group of us got caught by construction on the road and had to wait about twenty minutes for the road to re-open so we could follow the pilot car through. It was there that we encountered the first flat. It wasn’t ours, but rather a fellow gawker explorer. He waved off our offer of help, and continued spinning lug nuts on his Toyota pickup. Since he was in full view while we were waiting for the construction to let us through, I can tell you that NASCAR is not looking for his application, at least based on how long it took for him to change the tire. Watching the Pipe was more exciting.

Driving on the road is a bit of a hammering experience. Tundra, taiga, big rocks, and, well, that’s about it.

Then, finally, Nirvana: something exciting to look at. The Yukon. After looking at scraggly trees for 140 miles, seeing not only a river but a riverwas wonderful.

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First glimpse of a new river. I believe I’ll call it Wilder River. Perhaps not, since that sounds like a water park. Maybe I’ll settle on something like John’s River instead. Yeah, that has a ring to it.

The Yukon River is about 2,000 miles (17,000 cubits) long, though I cannot vouch for that personally. It carries 227,000 cubic feet per second (7 liters per minute) as an average annual flow. I strongly suspect that someone just made that last number up. Maybe it was Cortez.

Next: The Bridge and Beyond

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2006

“Captain Picard to the bridge. We’ve got a problem with the warp core or the phase inducers or some other damn thing.” – Geordi, Star Trek TNG

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Sign, sign, everywhere a sign. But this one is cool. 

As I said when last we were chatting, the view of the bridge over the mighty Yukon (as in, “Yukon, Ho!” which was finally replaced by the more mundane “Life in Alaska” because I didn’t want people to think I ran a string of women with tight parkas and loose morals) was refreshing. After seeing miles and miles of wonderful trees and panoramic mountain vistas, I was really in the mood to see a big hunk of steel sitting on concrete.

The name “Yukon” refers to either “great river” in a native Alaskan language, Gwich’in or the University of Connecticut.” The river’s basketball team sucks, but I still like it better than UConn. I digress. The bridge is known as the E. L. Patton bridge, which makes me think of George C. Scott in a Zorro mask . . . el Patton: “Ah, Señor Rommel, mí casa es sú casa, eh?”

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I’m ever so glad that there aren’t termites in Alaska (really, no termites there). The water looked cold. And deep.

The bridge itself is composed of concrete, steel and . . . wood. Now many of you recognize the great affinity that I have for cutting, hauling, and burning wood. As a bridge deck when you’re above a big, deep, cold river? Well, if the trucks can make it, I guessed we could.

The Boy was in a state of excitement. A big river, a big bridge, and lots of trucks. What’s not to like?

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Looking east on the Yukon. I think that there are fish in water, which is why I prefer beer.

The biggest settlement we would see all day is on the north side of the Yukon. I’ll give more info on that in a later post. Let’s just say it involves naked women living in champagne glasses. How’s that for a teaser?

Pulling about five miles north of the bridge, there’s Five Mile Airport. It’s owned by Alyeska, the folks that run the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. As far as airports go, this one is unique. Landing a plane requires that the Dalton Highway be shut down. The Dalton runs right by the strip, and I could have gotten all the light bulbs I’d ever need if we had stopped. Unfortunately none of my light fixtures are “airport” rated.

The terrain changes as you go farther north, trees becoming scarcer as the Arctic Circle comes nearer. The terrain has a stark, barren beauty, like New Mexico or Meryl Streep. You can tell that the weather pushes to harsh extremes. You can tell that there’s no beer store close.

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If Meryl Streep were a landscape, I think she’d look like this.

Next: Finger Rock and Farther North

A Trip to the Arctic Circle, Part 1 (And, yes, this really happened mostly as written.)

Following are some posts for while I’m off on yet another Wilder expedition – our shuttlecraft is stocked with provisions.  These are vintage September, 2006, right before we moved to Houston.  Enjoy!

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“He might as well ride along with us; Hell, everybody else is.” – The Outlaw Josey Wales
Yeah, it’s a cool roadsign. Wonder if it would fit in my basement?

As long as I’ve been in Alaska, I’ve wanted to go up beyond the Arctic Circle. The Arctic Circle is the point north of which where (astronomically speaking) there’s a day without the Sun ever crossing the horizon (December 21st). In the summer, it’s the point north of which where the Sun won’t ever go down (June 21st). It’s at 66º33’ North latitude.

My obsession to reach a spot surveyed on a map, as determined by the (more or less) random arrangement of the Sun, Earth, and, for all I know, Keebler Cookies™ led me to state that September 3, 2006 was the day we were going. In retrospect, it was probably a bad idea to start watching The Outlaw Josey Wales at 11:45PM the night before, but, heck, it is Clint Eastwood. As it ended up, I didn’t wrestle The Mrs. for the last beer, I was gracious and ceded it after a spirited Ro-Sham-Bo (Ro-Sham-Bo comes from some French words, so for all I know it could be spelled Reaux-Xchampres-Beau). The Mrs. was up before I, and we (groggily) got the gang ready for transit to the Arctic.

Okay, that’s just a cool sentence, primarily because it’s true. One foot over the Arctic Circle, you’re in the Arctic. On foot behind, you’re not.

To get ready, we packed:

  • Four Spare Tires
  • Floor Jack
  • Jackets
  • Food
  • Guns (it’s Alaska, okay?)
  • Whiskey for Bullet Wounds
  • Gas Can (with four gallons gas)

As it is, the only road I know of in Alaska that can get you to the Arctic is the Haul Road, or Dalton Highway, which is of course named for actor Timothy Dalton, who played James Bond. Locals call it the Haul Road, because they’re still irked about Dalton’s portrayal of Bond.

The Haul Road is the road that they used to build the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. It’s the road still used to get mail, pipe, PEZ™ dispensers, and whatever else you couldn’t to put on a boat during the fifteen or so minutes a year when you can take a boat up to Prudhoe Bay. Prudhoe Bay is, of course, the place where the sweet, sweet oil comes from.

Primarily, the road is intended for truckers, not cool-headed Arctic Explorers in Ford Explorers® heading up to rubberneck collect scientific data.

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This is a sign on the road. No counties, no boroughs, just a mining district. I guess that means that only mining law is in effect, and so technically The Mrs. is a claim. Works okay. You know what happens to claim jumpers.

Just getting to the haul road from Fairbanks requires driving up the Steese Highway (named for Wilberforce Steese, inventor of the Floo-Bee®) to a mining down named Fox, followed by a trip up the Elliot Highway (named for Sam Elliot, star of Road House) to the start of the Haul Road. Just outside Fox the first sign shows up saying that the next services are 118 miles away. That’s the sort of sign that you don’t see everywhere, except in desolate godforsaken locations like Wyoming, northern Canada, or Oakland.

Next: Start of the Haul Road

 (You don’t have to wait days to read part II  – it’s right below!!)

“I honestly don’t think we’re going to find the Grand Canyon on this road.” –  Vacation

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Pretty early on in the trip I saw this truck. My immediate concern was that we were driving into some post-apocalyptic Mad-Max scenario, and I had left my midget and steel-spiked shoulder pads at home.

We made it to the Haul Road. The first I ever heard of the Haul Road was during my first visit to Fairbanks. Over the Hertz® counter there’s a sign that says your rental car will immediately burst into flame if you go on the Haul Road. Beyond that, Hertz™ then lays claim to your soul and any EverQuest stuff you have. The warnings were strong.

If you noted from my earlier post, I said I took four spare tires for the trip. Actually, that’s wrong. I took five spare tires, because the one that comes with the car was packed between the tires under the axle. An aside: you’re just got a flat. You’re irritated. Some goofball in Detroit then puts the spare so you have to crawl under the car to access it. Does that make sense to anyone? You’re in trouble, so we’ll torture you by design for a while? It’s like credit card companies designed that part of the car.

I digress. The speed limit sign is one of the first things you see on the Haul Road. It indicates that the speed limit is 50 MPH (342km/s) for the next 416 miles. I thought about that, and it made sense. If you have a road that has exactly one way in, and exactly one way out, why would you need more than one speed limit sign? It’s not like you could seriously make an argument that you didn’t know the speed limit because you just got on the road.

Missing was the sign that said, “Abandon all hope, ye who enter here,” or, “Here be dragons,” or “Hertz® now owns your soul, keep it clean.”

The next nineteen miles were rough road. By rough, whenever we went up an incline, the stereo would vibrate out of the cavity that holds it, as if it were attempting to break out of its cocoon and become an I-Pod®. The Mrs. and I took turns holding it in place. Inexplicably, nineteen miles up the haul road, the rough, washboard dirt road turns into (fairly) smooth asphalt.

Immediately I began wondering. Was the whole “rough Haul Road” thing a ruse? Do we just tell stories to scare people away?

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Here’s the road at mile 19. Look, Ma, no dirt.

No. The paved section (complete with road signs) disappeared a few miles after it started. It was, essentially, a tease. I was like the AKDOT said, “Hey, guys, we could pave this if we really wanted, but, no, we really don’t. Well, now you know what the road could be like.”

It was about this point that I saved The Boy’s life. I had mentioned the day before that we were going up the Dalton Highway. I did this because The Boy must know the name of any road we find ourselves on. Immediately, the little meat microprocessor (his term, really) interpreted “Dalton Highway” as “Dolphin Highway.” I guess he doesn’t like Timothy Dalton, either.

I saved his life by having him stop saying “Dolphin Highway” after he’d done it about 332 times. That’s about the limit The Mrs. has. Fortunately, he never said, “Are we there yet?”

Why the media is driving you crazy (with all the Tom Cruise and Tommy Chong you can eat, but only in Wisconsin)

“You rang?” – The Addams Family

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You can see Hollywood® height in action here.  In reality, Tom Cruise is only four inches (like 10 centimeters) tall!  He’s a pocket celebrity!

One criticism I have of the media is that it sets an expectation of the way the world should be.  The media does this in a silly way:  single girls in New York City own 3,000 square foot apartments and work as flunkies at the local ad agency as the wacky receptionist.  The media indicates that Tom Cruise is 6’2” (37 meters) tall, even though we have pictures to prove that Tom Cruise fits as carry-on luggage in a 737.

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So, Tom Cruise is shorter than the average height of a 3rd grade girls’ basketball team.  Doesn’t matter, they haven’t carded him since 2015!

The biggest bias, however is that of the news writers, Internet publishers and national broadcasters.  Every piece of news is advocacy.  How can I justify this bold statement?  Besides the incredible mixture of Pinot Noir and steroids flowing through my veins, only awaiting the caffeine as the activator chemical, I offer this bit of evidence:

When The Mrs. was involved in news broadcasting, she selected the stories that would be covered in the broadcast.  And, since The Mrs. didn’t like the NBA®, NBA™ news never made it to the broadcast.  Never.  Michael Jordan might have had LeBron James’ love child in a Swiss robot factory with Larry Bird as the godfather and she wouldn’t have broadcast it.  Instead?  The Mrs. inserted stories about a sport she did like, NHL™ hockey, even though there wasn’t a professional hockey team within a ten hour drive from where the broadcasts originated, and ice had to be imported from Utah, which, strangely forbade that the ice be properly mixed with bourbon.

Even though the stories themselves were without bias, the selection of the stories wasn’t.  Although the topic The Mrs. didn’t wish to cover was (and is) exceedingly trivial, it sank home with me:  the gatekeepers choose the stories and the narratives.  The gatekeepers do so with the express purpose of furthering their viewpoint and silencing dissenting evidence.  And even though much of the news today has a significant bias in straight news reporting, it’s the stories that you never hear that also contribute to that bias.

How bad is the bias?  Only 7% of journalists are Republican.  You can simply view election night footage from the 2016 presidential election to verify that.  And, I think much of the street-level misbehavior in recent days has been a reaction to the increasingly polarized news.  Much of the news media we used to consume in the past was locally sourced and sustainable and gluten-free.  It was the town newspaper, which could be had in most small towns and was run by the local boy who decided that ink was in his veins and he wanted to put a daily out to the locals.  Heck, even a hamlet of 1100 people had a newspaper that had an 80 year history in my memory.  It was a small paper, but everyone got it.

The values that the local newspaper editor/publisher/journalist/typesetter put in the paper mirrored the local values for over 200 years.  These values were always tempered and supplemented with news from outside the small town – the town didn’t exist in a vacuum.

Now many of those papers have vanished, and others have long since stopped being the local source for in-depth news.  You read the local paper to figure out who won the softball game, and which kid was on (or not on) the honor roll.

What’s replaced it?  Television and news via the internet.

Where does television come from?  New York and Los Angeles are the two big metropolitan areas that are the headquarters for the major broadcasters.  And the internet?  It’s got San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles and Seattle as the hubs for the major news operations.  None of the major locations that now serve the majority of news to Americans is on the right – each of these cities is exceptionally far left.  I know it doesn’t seem that way to those of you that live there, but, good heavens, those governments have more regulations than the old Soviet Union (even though I just made that fact up, I’m pretty sure it’s true – I heard that Stalin® was arrested in Seattle for trying to open a lemonade stand – too capitalist.  Plus Stalin™ couldn’t prove the lemons were free range, vegan, locally sourced, and carbon neutral.  He claimed Lenin© ate that paperwork.  Stupid Lenin®.

And thus, when Donald Trump was elected president, through the process as outlined in the Constitution and followed since George Washington was drinking brandy by the fire at Mt. Vernon with the Hooters® girls, calls immediately came to “restore our democracy.”  People took to the streets to protest a president before he had been inaugurated – and immediate calls for his impeachment went out.

Why?

The left had been living in a lie, sort of like the mirror the Kardashians® keep on their wall.  In this world, Donald Trump is a monster – all of their media, all of their news told them so (just like they said the same things about George W. Bush™, who is now totes okay).  Trump was not a political opponent with a set of positions that were backed by millions and millions of decent, smart, hardworking Americans.  No.  He was an evil villain who wants to eat children and send them to his hellish pits under the Earth to mine for Trumpenite, a substance known to cause really unusual hair.  However, per my last count, he has eaten no children, nor put any into concentration camps (despite what the media might say, and they told me the Arctic would be ice free by 2014, so, you know, my trust level is low).

But no one who reads this will be able to do a thing about it until November, 2020.

The media frenzy against all things Trump, the bias, has whipped millions of normally sane people into a rabid frenzy to the point that they defend Haiti as a great place to send their toddlers out to play in the streets, point out that MS-13 murderers are probably great neighbors as long as they don’t move to the suburbs, and come to the conclusion that Kim Jong-Un either is awesome or such an evil genius that he blew up his own nuclear facility just to prove that he didn’t need nuclear weapons to have nuclear weapons.  Or something.

And this is the point of this blog – the inability to deal with reality is just . . . unhealthy.

Take a deep breath, if you’re on the left.  Step back.  Trump has done something you like.   Admit it.  It’s out there.

It’s also a paradox – standards and expectations are necessary for excellence in anything.  There must be a burning desire to turn “what is” into “what could be.”  But when that same desire is thwarted because no reasonable action will make any difference, the matter is beyond your control.  This leads to the profound sense of helpless misery that many on the left are feeling about the election (that happened in 2016!) – and that many on the right are feeling about, say, Robert Mueller®, who starred in the 1960’s comedy series The Addams Family as Lurch©, the butler.

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Is it just me, but shouldn’t he say this every single time he testifies at Congress?

And not one person who reads this can do anything about Mueller, either.

And not one person who this who is in a frenzy about either Trump or Mueller is at all healthy.

I’ve written about this before in The Coming Civil War (United States), Cool Maps, and Uncomfortable Truths and I think it’s tearing us apart even faster than I had originally thought.  I try not to take sides, but the left has really inflamed this situation to a point of incivility worse than any episode I’ve ever seen of The Big Bang Theory (spoiler, I only saw one, and it was awful).

All of this brings me back to The Mrs.:  If I come home and have the expectation that she’s arranged my PEZ® dispensers into the outline of the Danish coastline like I asked her to do, and find out she hasn’t, I have four choices:

  • Get as angry as a liberal restaurant owner at Sarah Huckabee Sanders, or
  • Appoint a special counsel to investigate her, or
  • Riot in the streets that Denmark is really a part of Germany, and should be open to all Germans, or
  • Don’t care and do it myself.

I assure you that I’m a last bullet point kind of guy.  Earlier in my life, I might have had higher expectations, but then I realized – if The Mrs. has a hot meal ready for me when I get home, I should be grateful.  I should say thanks.  If she doesn’t, I know where the fridge is, and there’s probably a good reason we don’t have dinner ready.  Or not.  If I let myself get as twisted as Bill Clinton’s lingerie collection, well, I’ll be unhappy AND hungry AND have thong marks on my butt until they bury me in 40 years or so.

So, I don’t have that expectation.  I have the expectations that The Mrs. is faithful, holds our family relationship as at least her number two priority in life (there has to be room for a higher entity, and I don’t mean Tommy Chong), and that The Mrs. flushes the toilet so I can pretend The Mrs. doesn’t poop.  The Mrs. meets those criteria, so everything else is groovy.

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I loved these Cheech and Chong when I was a kid.  As I understand it Tommy Chong’s toenail clippings are considered a controlled substance in every state except Wisconsin.

One amazingly significant source of frustrations for people is looking and the world, and seeing it as . . . wrong.  If there’s a solution or something you can do to change it, then work to change it.  If there’s nothing you can do to change it, it just is a fact.  So, relax.  Breathe deep.  You can make it.  And remember to vote on the first Wednesday in November of 2020!

THIS IS NOT POLITICAL, HEALTH, OR VOTING INFORMATION.  Seriously.  How could you think that?

2018 Predictions – Second Quarter Review

“You want a prediction about the weather, you’re asking the wrong Phil. I’ll give you a weather prediction: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last for the rest of your life.” – Groundhog Day

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Yeah, I guess this might have been wrong, since I now bathe in gasoline since it’s cheaper than bottled water or milk.

Okay, in an experiment in economic forecasting, I decided to do some financial predictions for 2018 (2018 Predictions – Wealth).  Why?  It seems like it’s what bloggers do:  they predict things poorly, and I decided I could do that poorly.  Even more poorly than television forecasters, but that’s hard – they don’t put what they say into print, so they change it every week.

I also promised a quarterly report card, and this is the second one.  So how are my predictions matching with reality?

Mixed bag.  One real stinker, the rest are still possible, at least in several games of Fallout™ that Pugsley has played.  Fallout© is just like real life, right?

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But please note that when I explain what I think happened, I’m not trying some sort of argument to the effect of:  “I would have been right, but . . .” followed by some lame excuse.  No.  If I was wrong, I was wrong (to date, the year isn’t done, remember?) but much like a goldfish, I do have the ability to learn.

Oh, what were we talking about?  Fish flakes?  No.  Bitcoin.  Which might be worth less than fish flakes.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin is on life support, and a lawsuit has been filed in district court to let this prediction die, but this was overruled by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals (which also recently ruled that Kim Jong Un *must* restart his nuclear program, and, in general do stuff to prove Democrats Were Right All Along).  It is by far my worst prediction.  It has all of the risks shown below:

  • It (may) be vulnerable to hacking since it’s based on an NSA product – there may be hidden back doors. Or, the NSA might just hack your computer and steal all your Bitcoin that way.  It’s like doing taxes, but you don’t have to file.
  • Wal-Mart® doesn’t take it.   How many Bitcoin for that Chinese made grill?  Nobody knows.
  • It’s as volatile as a bi-polar ex-wife on meth. It looks more promising than Johnny Depp’s career.
  • The IRS has categorized each Bitcoin transaction as a taxable event.   Nobody keeps those kinds of records, and that is an absolute block for people wanting to use it like you’d use a dollar bill.  That moves it from a currency to an investment vehicle.  Use as a currency inherently raises the value of Bitcoin, but this moves it away from that.

My prediction in December:

“I think it might have more to fall before it becomes stabilized, maybe to $10,000.  But I predict it would be higher than $20,000 next December.” (June 2018 John Wilder says:  “December John Wilder was not stoned.  But that at least would have been a good excuse for this stupid prediction.”)

Second Quarter Scorecard:

How’s that working so far?  In the first quarter, it was bouncing around my $10,000 prediction for the stabilization number.  Now?  $6,000.  Ugly.  And there’s no reason it can’t drop more.

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Is $20,000 still possible?  Yes.  And Katy Perry© might win the Nobel® Prize in physics.

The Stock Market

In December I said:  “The biggest risks are North Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, with anything that created higher oil prices being the biggest risk.  Chances of impeachment this year?  Nearly zero.”  To show you how much the world has moved on, I struck out all of the things that didn’t go wrong this year.  Things are, generally, going very well indeed.

New Risks Since December Prediction

  • Democrats taking the House of Representatives in November – this is a risk because it greatly increases political uncertainty. That’s a huge risk the market has not priced in.  October will be the most volatile month this year, if the Republicans keep the House.  If they lose the house – November will be a very difficult month in the Market.  But if Pelosi keeps talking Trump keeps Trumping – the Republicans have nothing to fear.
  • How much will the Fed increase interest rates (see below)?
  • Is Facebook® in trouble for data? Facebookâ„¢ might be the spark that melts the market down . . . or not.

2018 Prediction on the S&P 500:

“Up.  Not 24%.  But up, say, 10%.  2019?  We’ll see.”

Second Quarter Scorecard:

So far, year to date, it’s now down 1.8%.  No real problem there – it can still easily hit my 10% mark.  And if the Republicans win bigly in November?  10% is an easy achievement.  This tale will be told in October and November, I think.

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Interest Rates:

We’re recovering from the longest period of low interest rates in history.  All of history.  It really won’t make a difference, but the Federal Reserve simply must increase rates so that we can pretend that the money isn’t all made up.  Eventually if there’s a credible alternative (Bitcoin? Swiss Francs?) the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates . . . a lot.

If it’s too much this year, we’ll enter a recession – maybe right away.  I don’t think that’s likely in 2018.  Trump’s Fed chair will want to raise the rates – after this election.  Maybe right after, so the economic pain is over and done with by the 2020 election.

2018 Prediction on the Federal Reserve Rate:

“Up slightly.  Eventually (2019, 2020?) up a lot.”

Second Quarter Scorecard:

The Fed funds rate has gone up, 0.25% and will likely go up more.  If that doesn’t sound like much, you’re wrong – it went up from 1.75% to 2.0%.  That’s increasing rates by 14%, and it’s nearly certain the Fed will increase rates two or three more times this year.

Mortgage rates have gone up from 3.95% to 4.52%.  Not a lot, but there will be more to come . . .   Seems in line with my prediction (so far).

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Gold/Silver:

2018 Prediction on the Gold/Silver:

“Meh.  Wanders back and forth.  Probably ends the year +/-10% of where it started.  2019 or 2020 might be different stories, and longer term it will still experience huge upward swings during times of uncertainty.  It appears we’re currently at the “no crisis” pricing, which would probably be a good time to stock up.”

Second Quarter Scorecard:

Gold is down 0.4% for the year.  Silver is up 2%.  It’s wandering (for now), so it’s in line with predictions.

Please note that when a stock market crisis hits (not if, but when) ALL asset classes will drop in price (except for food and ammo).  That’s generally a great time to buy gold.  If it’s an inflationary spike?  Yeah, you’ll be too late for the party – people will dump dollars to buy commodities like gold.

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Disclaimer:  I haven’t started any positions in anything above the last three days and don’t expect to start any in the next three.  So there, neener, neenter.  Also, I’m not a decent financial advisor, and this set of “predictions” is probably as good as Katy Perry’s kitchen whiteboard for predicting the future and probably worse than flipping a coin.

Scadenfreude – You can feel great I forgot to put a post title on this post for 18 hours.

“So don’t go anywhere, folks. The Schadenfreude is about to begin.” – Dodgeball

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Wikipedia chose Return to the Convent, by Eduardo Zamacois y Zabala, 1868 to symbolize schadenfreude.  Good choice.  There’s no better source of humor than monks.  Oh, I meant clowns.  Wait, both of those things are scary.  And have odd hair.

The German language is delightful, if you think delightful is a sound that people make when they are angry and choking.  But the Germans have some amazing words – kummerspeck – literally “grief bacon” which means the weight you gain because you eat too much when you’re sad.  Another good one is treppenwitz – literally “staircase joke” which the feeling you get when you’ve figured out the perfect thing to say in the argument.  The argument that already ended.

But the Germans also have a much more common word – schadenfreude.  Schadenfreude is feeling happy when something bad happens to someone you don’t like.  How awful, right?  Well, one day I had the biggest single case of schadenfreude that I’ve ever had, and it didn’t involve something embarrassing happening to Tom Brady, like him breaking his leg after he slipped in his hair gel in the shower and having accidently lost all of his money so now he’s an Über driver that’s taken up smoking.  Yeah, that would make me happy inside.

But my case was totally Brady-free.

Some background:  I had worked with a person that was uniquely difficult to work with.  I won’t bore you with the details, but this person wreaked havoc across multiple departments – including mine.  Sadly, in the blind thrashing around, that passed for “work” that this person did, well, more than one person was set up to take the fall for the odd behavior.  I’m keeping the details vague, because it really doesn’t matter – and if you’ve spent more than five or so years working, it’s nearly certain you worked with an idiot someone like this.

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Heh heh – Scott Adams should be knighted.  But first, we need a King . . . maybe King

One happy morning, I heard that they had been escorted from the building.  I felt schadenfreude in abundance.  While working out on the treadmill that day, I just listened to Mack the Knife on a loop.  Why Mack the Knife?  Dunno.  It felt right.

It’s a good song, even though the first time I heard it was in 2007.  Thanks, YouTube!

Part of my schadenfreude that day was a sense of justice – this person had personally made life difficult for several of my friends.  And for me.  Even though getting fired was hard for that person to go through, the entire company was better off now that they were gone.

But, even though I’d like to engage in more schadenfreude (it’s fun to enjoy the pain of others and sniff the sweet, sweet smell of their tears), I try to avoid it.  Why?

Karma.  Treat a person badly, and it comes back to you, with interest.  Maybe not from the same person, but I do think there is a balance in the universe.  Unless that person has wronged you – so watching Charlie Sheen implode wasn’t any fun – he’d never wronged me.

Long-term readers will know Johnny Depp has been the source of several good-natured jokes on this blog – but Johnny’s never done me wrong.  So, here’s an open letter to Johnny Depp:

Dear Mr. Depp:

I really enjoyed your work in Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas and Dead Man.  I also recently read the relatively unflattering recent story in Rolling Stone (Link).  If you want to invite me to drink outrageously expensive wine and hang out with you, I assure you that I will post on this blog a true and fair accounting of the kick-butt time I’m sure we’d have.  Do you have any tobacco?

Sincerely,

John Wilder – Noted Internet Humorist

So, see, I’m trying to make amends.

It’s bad enough that I now have fernweh.  That’s German for “distance-pain” – sort of the opposite of homesickness.  I can only imagine the awesome wine that Depp has – so I get fernweh waiting for his private jet to come pick me up.  I imagine this would be more fun than that weekend I spent with Mickey Rourke, who mainly spent it eating cabbage, not showering, and watching old VHS recordings of The Price Is Right.

CPAP – Three Week Review, Plus Chainsaw Hands. Because Everyone Wants Chainsaw Hands.

“I heard Sutler’s going to make a public statement tonight . . . It’s nearly time.  The masks were ingenious.  It was strange to suddenly see your face everywhere.” – V for Vendetta

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Oh, my, this is sexy!  It’s either a Halloween costume or . . . a CPAP mask.  I wish my CPAP mask was this cool.  Then I could take over Britain.  But I guess I’d have to get in line . . .   Photo credit – somewhere on the internet.

Okay, I promise I won’t keep going on and on about the Continuous Positive Air Pressure (CPAP) breathing device – this is just a three week (and likely final) review of the device unless something significant comes up.  My first post on this is here (Sleep Apnea, CPAP, and how the Medical Mafia is Killing You).

First comment:

The name.  CPAP.  I just sounds . . . icky.   I think it might be the “pap” part.  “Pap” is defined as a soft food for infants, a “Pap” smear is a woman’s parts test that I don’t want to even know about, “pap” is also defined as “nonsense,” and “pap” is also South African slang for “spineless and without character.”

No, a really bad name.  I, John Wilder, suggest that in its place we call it “life-giving energy machine.”  Heck, even something more specific like “Sleep Suffocation Harm Reduction And Care” is better, and has a much cooler acronym – SSHARC.  Shark.  That sounds cool, like something you could tattoo on your bicep (ladies, you could just put the SSHARC . . . nowhere – iffin’ you’re a lady, you don’t get a tat).    And it’s true:  untreated sleep apnea can cause a host of problems like arrhythmia (which leads to stroke), heart failure, diabetes, and that little rash under your wristwatch band if you wear it all the time.

Next:  The machine is quiet.  I half expected it to sound like Darth Vader was on my bedside table, but it was not at all loud – I think the dwarves (Tolkien dwarves from the underworld, not little people) we keep in the closet make a lot more noise, especially when they nip into the mead.  I can’t even hear it at all unless I open my mouth.  To sleep with a CPAP, you have to have your mouth closed.  Totally closed.  The air pressure is jammed into your nose, so that when you inhale, your throat can’t close up (which makes the snoring sound).  When I open my mouth with the CPAP on, I get the (really weird) feeling of exhaling through my mouth without moving my lungs.  Weird.  It also makes a “whooshing” sound, like the end of Quentin Tarantino’s career.

I slept through the night the first time I used my CPAP.  No issues.  I’ve checked the readings, and the number of sleep apneas I’m having is now . . . zero.  And the number of times I breathe shallowly during the night (hypopnea) is one or two.  This is considered super-human.  So that means I’m a man-machine now?  Maybe.  I can crush cans with my machine hands.  Oh, wait, they’re regular hands – and the cans are aluminum, so they’re easy to crush.  Maybe my doctor will prescribe chainsaw hands?  Yeah.

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If we all had chainsaw hands, then almost 18,000 chainsaw injuries to the hands could have been stopped in 1994!  Call your congressman NOW to demand that all hands be replaced with chainsaws today.  And that we develop time machines so people in 1994 can be saved from chainsaw related head trauma. 

For those that SSHARC (or, CPAP, if you must) has helped, it becomes a near-obsession.  Most fanatics won’t go a single night without CPAP – or even a single nap.  I have noticed that my daytime drowsiness level continues to drop.  That’s very nice for me and anyone else on the highway as I drive.  As the old saying goes, “I want to die in my sleep, like grandpa; not screaming like the passengers in his car.”

There are listed side effects:  allergies and sinus impacts that seem to bother some people.  So far, not me.  My eyes are much puffier, which the folks put down to an insufficiently tight mask blowing air into my eyes at night, but I also think that there might be something to do with a radically different blood chemistry (less CO2) and less stress hormones from not choking yourself (so to speak) every night.  This has been the most significant side effect I’ve seen personally, but it’s fairly common according to Google®.  More severe side effects appear to be edema (fluid retention) in folks that aren’t having any sort of problems that would normally cause fluid retention.  That’s more difficult to deal with, since  (according to the message boards) doctors seem to think that edema would be some sort of witchcraft that can only be fought with sacrifice of a virgin – and California doctors seem to be all out.

Per the studies I could find, the minimum amount of therapy required for significant death reduction is 5 of 7 nights, 4 hours nightly, which seems low to me.  But, hey, I didn’t take the data.  However, the message board people (again) wouldn’t fly in an airplane and sleep without using their CPAP.

About 54% of users stick with CPAP after being prescribed.  15% give up after an average of 10 months of trying, and 31% . . . never started.  These percentages are nice, because they add up to 100%, so you know they must be accurate.  I just wonder how many of the 31% never start because of the stupid name.  CPAP.  Ugh.

I’ve found the following personal benefits – I’ve got more energy during workouts – a lot more.  I can exercise harder and for longer duration, about 40% more.  I’ve also got a “more full feeling” (less desire to eat), which I hear is a benefit of not getting choked every night.  I tried to replicate these findings, but The Mrs. seemed to object with me randomly choking her for two minutes 10 or so times an hour.  She’s so closed minded!  This is ¡Science!  How dare The Mrs. oppose ¡Science! by not letting me choke her ten times an hour?

And, obviously, since I’m getting better sleep, I’m not as sleepy during the day.  Since nobody is choking me.  Except The Mrs. in some weird retaliation.  I mean, she’s not even writing down the results, so her choking me isn’t science, right?

The weirdest side effect?  My dreams have been much more vivid.  And not always good.  I rarely have nightmares, but I’ve had several since starting CPAP.  And these aren’t your normal nightmares – these are nightmares that make Silence of the Lambs look like a Pixar® movie.  I mean, there were both Kardashians and Madonna® in that dream.  Ugh.  I still feel like I need to take a shower.

My only theory is that previously my sleep would have been disrupted and I would have woken up.  I’ve always had the ability to alter my dreams when they got too weird, and I still can, but in order for me to alter the dream, I have to realize I’m dreaming – and these dreams are so very vivid that on several occasions in that “drowsy-waking up” time, I’ve been convinced these dreams were real.  So, I’m either sleeping better or I’ve got a “back order” of vivid, crappy dreams I have to have to catch up with everybody else on planet Earth.  You poor, poor, people.

Regardless, I’m going to experiment a bit – maybe try a night without the CPAP SSHARC to see how that goes . . . I’ve been 100% compliant for the past three weeks, and maybe, just maybe, I’m feeling a bit naughty.

Call me a rebel.  A SSHARC rebel.  Yeah.  But no SSHARC tattoos for me.  They’ll just get droopy and look like bad cartoons when I go into the old folks home.

Note:  I AM NOT A DOCTOR!  This blog is just my strange, odd, and personal experience:  don’t do any of this nonsense without talking to your doctor.  Really.  I’m not a good role model.  I’m what the warning label said NOT to do.  Except ladies, don’t get a tat.  Really.  Ugh.

Houses: Fun, Profit, My Experiences and Bad Tax Advice

“You won’t Iose the house. Everybody has three mortgages nowadays.” – Ghostbusters

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My second house.  My worst moment there?  Discovering that I had termites and the only way to treat them involved an exterminator doing a painful extraction of $2000 from my wallet.

I’ve been a homeowner since I was in graduate school, with the exception of about an eight week period from when we moved from Alaska to Houston where we stayed in corporate housing until we could close on a house – oh, and it took 8 weeks for our household stuff to make it through the Panama Canal, so closing on a house too quickly would have been useless unless we slept in the pool, and then we would have been wrinkly raisin people – and everyone hates them.

That being said, I’d prefer not to live in an apartment in a big city – it felt too much like being a tiny rat in a cage next to ten thousand other rats in tiny rat cages.  Houses in the ‘burbs are much closer to the wide open country where I was raised – 15 miles from the nearest town of 1000 people.  To get to a town with 5000 people?  That was a 45 minute drive.  So the ‘burbs in Houston were like a crawling over three miles of sandpaper to get a beer on a 110˚F day.  I mean, I’m gonna do it, but I’m not gonna like it.

I’ve continually made the choice to buy homes.  Houston was the first place that we considered trying to rent – but the rent was too high, compared to what we would get.  Even though we always considered Houston a place that we would only be staying for a two years or so, we ended up buying.  As it is we ended up staying in Houston for thirty one months and twenty-nine days and got out as soon as we possibly could and did okay, but only because I was kinda sneaky.

So, should you rent or buy?

The positives of home ownership are:

  • Appreciation – Historically, housing prices have gone up over time. Even if it’s just keeping up with inflation, this is known as appreciation.  I know you normally feel appreciation that someone as wonderful as me lives and shares his wisdom with you, but when used with a house, it’s not an emotion, it’s a word that means the house is worth more than it was when you bought it.  Again, most of the time house prices increase over time.  But home prices aren’t uniform – in San Francisco you can’t buy a cardboard box next to a fish gutting factory for less than $23,000,000.  Where I live?  You can buy a house that a human could live in for $15,000 (not kidding).  Not a great house, but one you could live in.
  • Forced Savings – Unless you’re on some sort of “interest only” loan that they sell to LSD-using hippies who mistake bran muffins for money, every month that you send a check to the bank (or use that sorcery, electronic bill payment) part of your payment is interest, and part of it repays the borrowed amount, until the loan is eventually paid for. This is a savings plan that you have no real choice on, so you can’t drop all that money on PEZ®, pantyhose, and elephant rides.
  • Tax Deduction – If you pay interest, at least right now you can deduct it off of your taxes. I am NOT a tax adviser, so don’t go waving a copy of this blog post in the IRS agent’s face if you get audited.  But be sure to poke him in the chest with your index finger while loudly saying, “My taxes pay your salary.”  They love that.
  • Emotional – You want a house. I understand.  I also want a volcanic island lair and supervillain-type cars.  But no one understands me.  Maybe someone will understand your narcissistic desire for a . . . house.
  • Opportunity to be the Evil Neighbor Nobody Likes – That’s us. Not that we’re unfriendly, but we’re loud.  We yell.  Pugsley mows the lawn . . . interestingly some times – I’ve never seen a lawn that looks like a topographic map, but he figured out how to do it.  And the house could use a paint job.  And we have little dogs that will yap at you if you drive up to our house.  Yeah, we are “those” neighbors.
  • Asset to Borrow Against – Yeah. You can always borrow against the place if it’s worth more than you owe.  I did that once.  It worked out okay – divorces are expensive, and home appreciation paid for one.  I’d avoid this unless you want to pay off an ex-wife, it’s risky as can be.
  • Perception of Being Tied to a Place – People generally treat homeowners better, especially in places where respectable people own homes. So, there’s that.
  • Can Customize at Will – If you want to knock out a wall? Do it.  New deck?  Add it on.  Cow-launching trebuchet?  If the backyard is big enough, sure.  Unless you live in New York or California, in which case you can’t mow your lawn unless it’s above 2.4” and it must be kept below 2.55”.    I just read (seriously) about a guy who cut down several trees that were damaged by Hurricane Sandy.  Damaged trees that were on his own property (in New York).  And the city fined him $20,000.  For cutting down broken, damaged tress.  On his own property.     Count me out.
  • No Renting Rules – Smoke all you want, have pets, draw on the walls. Cut a pentagram into your wood floor if you want.  It’s yours.

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Yes, I owned a three bedroom log cabin in Alaska.  I miss it every day.  Simple days.  And no termites.

But where there are positives, there are negatives, too:

  • Debt – Very few people can walk into a place and buy it with cash. So, people (generally) borrow money to buy a house.  Essentially, when you borrow money you’ve sold part of your soul to that person – you have to go to work to earn the money to pay the money you borrowed, PLUS interest.  Debt sucks.  So very much.  I have no debt I can’t write a check for, so, any debt I have is because it’s a choice.
  • High Payment – Debt can lead to a pretty high payment. One phrase that has fallen out of fashion (somewhat) is “house poor.”  That essentially means that you owe so much money on your house that you can’t afford to eat a Chick-Fil-A® because it’s too expensive.    House payments can eat up all of your income.  The guidelines for a loan used to be that the house payment could be no more than 28% of your income and all of your debt should be less than 40% of your income.  I think you should be striving for TOTAL debt to be less than 20% of your income for any sort of comfort.  Some folks prefer the zero debt level.  I can understand and agree – work for that if you can.  Here’s a post where I work out my past experiences on that (Homes: Affordability versus Income).
  • Tied to a Location and Place – So, if I hadn’t convinced my employer to take a $100,000 hit for me, it would have been hard to move from Houston. I would have been stuck in a place precisely when the economy was poor there.  One study from back around the turn of the century actually showed a correlation between home ownership and poverty in some locations – people couldn’t afford to move because they owed money on their house.  If this were for a grade or if I was being paid I’d look it up to give you the source.  You can if you want.  You have DuckDuckGoogle®, too.
  • Risk on Sale – This is sort of like the above – how long will the sale take, and how much money will you get? Who knows?  In aggregate, people talk about days on the market, average selling price.  But if nobody wants to by your house because it’s just icky and you carved a pentagram in the hardwood floor in the living room, well, you’re out of luck.
  • Commission on Sale – Unless you’re a realtor or want to pretend to be one, you’re going to pay someone 6% of the sales price when you sell your house. And if you sell it yourself?  People will want to negotiate that 6% out of you, since they know you don’t have to pay a realtor.  People are awful, right?  Oh, heck, I forgot, I’m a people, too.
  • Upkeep Costs – Replacing a roof, fixing gutters, mowing lawns, trimming hedges, painting, cutting down the dead tree on my property that overhangs the neighbor’s deck. What is this, a list of things my neighbors would like me to do?  Well, yes.  But also, a list of things that also you have to pay for over time.  And the costs add up – general upkeep on a house costs thousands of dollars a year.
  • Utility Costs – If you rent, some of these are (generally) covered. If you own a home, you have to pay them all.
  • Insurance Costs – If you owe money (which is the default condition) on the house, your mortgage company will generally insist that you pay for insurance so that their asset (your house) maintains value and they don’t lose money. The bright side?  You get to pay for it.  I meant the bright side for the mortgage company, not you.
  • Upkeep Time – Somebody’s gotta mow. And it’ll probably be you, until you get a teenager.  Then they’ll want money . . .
  • Large Percentage of Money Invested – You might have $4,000 and some dryer lint in your 401K, but you’ve invested $20,000 on the down payment of a house. That’s a big investment.  Will it pan out?
  • Liability – Somebody slip and fall on the sidewalk in front of your house? Yeah, they’re gonna sue you.  I hope you have insurance . . .
  • Homeowners’ Associations – HOAs are run by bitter, retired old cranks with nothing better to do than complain about how people keep their yard, and send nasty, threatening letters with real legal consequences behind them. Don’t forget, Homeowners’ Associations have downsides, too.

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The Boy and Pugsley in our Houston house.  I think this was taken at the coldest day in December, since it was never below 145˚F when we were there.

Economics:

I’ve bought five houses and sold four, so how’s that working out for me?

The net gain (based just on sales price) is up about $100,000.  Not bad, right?  Well, like anything, there’s more to that story . . .

In Houston, I almost certainly would have lost about $60,000 plus had to pay my mortgage, insurance and utilities for 18 months while the house sat on the market had I not negotiated one little clause with my employer before accepting a job with them – if they moved me from Houston, they would pay me what I had in the house.  I didn’t want any gain, I just wanted out.  They agreed.  Why not?  This was before the housing bubble collapsed.  Home prices always go up, right?  So, of my $100,000 of profit, I’d actually probably be around a net of zero dollars had I not negotiated for that . . . “one last small item.”

Oh, and my current house?  If I sold it today, it would probably go for $40,000 less than I originally paid for it.  Yeah.

But those aren’t the whole economic picture.  I’ve actually had to pay interest on borrowed money for these houses.  I did some sloppy math, and I’ve paid about $140,000 in interest.  Sure, it’s deductible, so I’ll only take a $90,000 hit for interest payments.

But there’s also been upkeep and improvements.  I’d estimate (and I think this is low) that I’ve probably spent $125,000 on maintenance and improvements.

So, net (and I’ll keep my sly job negotiation gain and NOT account for a loss on a property I haven’t sold) I was up $100,000 – $90,000 interest – $125,000 upkeep/improvements.  This says that I’ve paid roughly $135,000 to live in my houses.  Keep in mind that number could be closer to $235,000 except for that one shrewd move I made.

What’s the alternative?  I picked a ballpark rent, and multiplied, and the total was $460,000 for the time period in question.  So, for me, owning homes has saved me $325,000 versus the alternative of renting.

But your mileage may vary based on the following criteria:

  • Debt Load – As mentioned, if you’re paying too much money in debt – you fry your family future. Avoid debt as much as possible.
  • Area – Is the area poised for growth? Good schools?  Industry/commerce moving in?  Or is it a dead zone with a declining population like Flint, Michigan?
  • Commute Time – Every minute commuting is a minute you’ll have to spend EVERY DAY that you go to work. Those minutes?  They’re your life.
  • Duration – How long are you going to be there? Six months?    Five years?  Buying becomes an option . . . .
  • Single Vs. Dual Income – Let’s pretend you now have only one income – your spouse isn’t working. If you can’t afford the house with one income, you can’t afford the house.
  • Cost of Rent vs. Cost of Ownership – In the town where I live in Midwestia, I mentioned you could buy a livable house for $15,000. Why would you rent?  Dunno, but people do.
  • Consequence of Default – Varies by state. I’m NOT a lawyer, and I’ve never defaulted.  So, what’s the consequence if you can’t pay?  Do you have to declare bankruptcy, or can you just mail the keys in to the mortgage company.  You might want to know this where you live.

Buying a home is a complicated decision.  It’s worked out well for me (so far) but it could have been different.  Think about it, especially before you buy that unique fixer-upper in central Manhattan.  Is it really worth $41,000,000 to own a single room apartment that was once rejected as a site for a Sex and the City™ episode?

Lost In Space, or, How There Are No Liberals in Foxholes

“Do you mean he never told you the tale?  To amuse your captain? No?  Never told how the Enterprise picked up the Botany Bay, lost in space?” – Star Trek, Wrath of Khan

lostinspace

Violence can’t cure violence, but it sure can destroy an alien robot.

I mentioned last week about a scene in the Netflix® remake of the 1960’s series Lost in Space™ where the father, John Robinson, (a Marine, I believe) was attempting to use a 3D printer to print out a gun.  The reason he wanted to print out a gun?  They were on an unknown planet with unknown hostile critters around them.

In the next episode, there were space eels (complete with space teeth) that were drinking the spaceship’s space fuel.  Without the space fuel, the space ship becomes better known as a “house.”  And in this case, a house that was in danger of being crushed, perhaps killing the entire family.

A good time for a gun, right?

No.

He had to fight the space eels with a knife, and, though they did survive, he still doesn’t have a space gun.  Because . . . there are no reasons to have guns in space, according to his wife, Maureen Robinson, who has the keys to the 3D printer.

I actually laughed out loud.

Stranded, on an alien world, with dangers, unfathomable dangers surrounding you isn’t a good reason to have a gun?  I’m pretty sure that the number of mothers that would share that sentiment is very near zero, even someone very liberal.  Why?

Reactions to conditions change opinions, and the elements of danger change how we act as a society and as individuals, and the values that we hold dear.  An example:  very few (nearly zero) people knowing that a dangerous person is inside their house, outside the door of their child, would not want to have a gun.  The old saw is that the police are only minutes away when seconds count, and it’s an accurate phrase.

What other values besides personal defense change in response to societal stress or imminent danger?  Quite a few:

Family – in times of danger and stress, society as a whole will tend to push more toward monogamy, restricted sexual mores, and more stable families.  Why?  When resources are constricted, there is a real danger that family dissolution would lead to great disadvantages to the family.  Hence, families bond together more tightly.  Divorces dropped significantly during the roughest parts of the Great Depression – dropping 25% during the first few years.  Divorce rates have headed back up, and it’s nearly certain that the great economy plus the social safety net of the various welfare programs have had on the family.

family

Oh, next one dad is going to read is about environmental regulations associated with nesting migrant waterfowl.  YAY!

Capitalism – Ironically, the great degree of material prosperity brought about by capitalism actually agitates people to want to take the stuff that other people earned.  For whatever reason, this isn’t known as greed.  I had a conversation with a friend, and noted that since socialist countries tend to freeze intellectual progress, wouldn’t it be better if we went farther into the future before we became fully socialist so we could have the innovation that capitalism provides.  He thought that was a good idea.

Communism has been the result of social upheaval, not communism in the past – and you’d think that would be an indicator that communism was inevitable with a large enough crisis.  And it appears it might be, but only in nations built upon totalitarianism in the first place – when Russia fell it was from one absolute government to another.  When China fell, it was from one a military ruler to another military ruler.  But the United States was different – sure, communists made a run at the country, but there wasn’t any real chance they’d win.  Why?  Americans had been free – and the fabric of the nation was built upon the idea that if you let a man have a chance, he can make it.  That’s the American Dream, right?  No part of the American Dream has ever been “give me everything and I’ll give you my soul.”

During tough times, will Americans still turn towards capitalism?  Yes.  At least now.  More on that for a future post.

communism

Yeah, I’m making the memes now.  My kids hate this.  All bad “dad” jokes.

Good and Bad – In a crisis, good and bad exist.  Liberals hate the concept of good and bad – it’s judgmental.  It’s a violation of a basic premise – that all cultures are equal.  And, maybe on some sort of academic realm, they are.  But cultures are vastly different at the most basic level on the outcomes of wealth and individual freedoms they produce, and some are horribly inferior on this basis.  They’re bad.

There.  I said it.

And if we’re fighting them?  They’ll be the bad guy.  And you’ll agree, liberal or conservative (if we’re in a crisis).

grumpy cat culture

He only laughs at pratfalls in movies if he knows that the person broke a bone during filming.

I won’t go through them on this post (but each topic could be its own post), but the following topics are also ones where people will change their opinions based upon the level of crisis in society:

  • Immigration
  • Nationalism
  • Small government
  • Political correctness

As many of my college textbooks said . . . the proof is elementary and left to the reader.  But I might post about them in the future.

We are in for changes in our future, and the very mindset of society will change in response to our condition.  Be ready.  Or, failing being ready, have a knife to kill the space fuel eating space eels.

Purpose, Retirement, and Life. Spoiler: You need a purpose.

“We’re the middle children of history, man.  No purpose or place.  We have no Great War.  No Great Depression.  Our Great War’s a spiritual war.” – Fight Club

Retirement-pencil

I love Demotivators.  You should buy a calendar a year from them.  Or more, if you have more than one year each year.   

Men must have a purpose.  If they don’t have one, they’ll either find one, or die.

During the vast majority of my career I’ve been a supervisor of between one (which is the minimum you can be a supervisor of, unless you have multiple personalities) and 200 people (they worked for the eight or so people working for me, so I was like a great-grand boss).

I’ve seen all sorts of weird things – an employee on day one had his company laptop stolen out of his hotel room in New Jersey and then got punched in the face at his apartment building the next day and showed up to work with two horrible black eyes (this story is true).  I worried he would be an awful employee – bad luck often seems to follow some people around, but he turned out just to be unlucky that week – the rest of his career has been pretty good.

I’ve seen employees quit for no real good reason, I’ve seen them quit for very good reasons.  I’ve (unfortunately) been in the position of forcing an employee out (i.e., letting them know that the hammer is coming down so they’d better find something soon) and I’ve had to fire people.  Firing is the roughest, but it also helps the employee find a place that they can be that will help them – most of the times, they’re just not a fit for the job.  One employee developed diabetes and ulcers while working for me.  The job wasn’t high pressure, but the employee just wasn’t cut out for it.  Or, maybe I’m an amazing jerk.  Nah, it must be he wasn’t cut out for it.

Sometimes the happiest occasion is when an employee retires.

fozzie bear

Not that I want them to retire, especially if they’re good at what they do and fun to be around.  But after 45 or 50 years, it’s nice for them to be able to spend the next few months before they die doing whatever they want to.  I kid!  But how many people retire and then die within a few months?  Far too many, and I think I know why.

I was fortunate enough to be a supervisor to two employees that retired on the same day, Kermit and Fozzie.  Kermit and Fozzie had worked together for decades.  They had vacationed together.  They lunched together.  I think they even shared shoes and toenail clippers.  It was only fitting that they retire on the same day.

Fozzie was ready to retire.  Really ready to retire.  He had plans.  He had a big RV, plans for fishing and grandkids.  He had bought a house about 100 miles away and sold the one near to town.  He’d calculated his retirement down to the penny – and figured out how to maximize every benefit he could think of.  And he was done.

About six minutes after we cut the retirement cake, he was gone.  The last time I heard from him was as he walked out the door at his retirement party, essentially telling us if we ran into any problems and needed his help, he’d be available approximately never.  His last act was to place a huge poster on his office door specifically mocking in a humorous way about a dozen employees that he found fault with.  (Thankfully I wasn’t on the poster.)

Fozzie was done.

In truth, he was probably done two or three years earlier, but he had waited for Kermit.

kermitretire

Kermit had a house that he had bought that was closer to 200 miles away.  But Kermit didn’t have plans.  He rarely saw his grandkids, and his hobby, his passion was really work.

Both Kermit and Fozzie had a great amount of technical knowledge – and I promised either of them that they could get an hourly consulting contract to assist teaching the 24 year old kids that were replacing them.  Fozzie told me in rather distinct medical terminology exactly where I could put that contract.  Again, nothing personal.  Fozzie was done.

Kermit?  Three months later Kermit was in the office at least 20 hours a week.  I rarely tasked him with anything specific – I mainly had him help and teach the younger employees (which I think he loved).  I’m not in that position anymore with that company, but Kermit is still coming in every week.

Why does Kermit keep coming in?

It’s his purpose.  If he wasn’t at work, he wouldn’t have a purpose.  That’s not an indictment of Kermit – he’s a heck of a guy.  He simply understands (or maybe feels) that he has the ability to keep going and to keep adding value in the workplace.  And he’s got nothing in his life outside of work that makes him that happy.

Kermit would do it for free if he wasn’t being paid.  I actually think there are some months he didn’t bill the company – and I recall having to nag him about turning a bill in at all.

I’m certain that if Kermit wasn’t coming in?  He’d die.  It’s who he is.

Men must have a purpose.  If they don’t have one, they’ll either find one, or die.

What’s your purpose?

catpurpose