“Oil, Butt-Head. It’s oil. We’ve struck oil.” – Beavis and Butt-Head
I caught my bread moving to the music on the counter the other night. I guess it was a bun dance.
We’re 30 months past the start of the ‘Rona outbreak. Sure, it doesn’t seem like that long, but in many ways it seems so much longer, like being forced to watch Amy Schumer talk to Chuck Schumer about cheese. What happened, due to the reaction to the ‘Rona, was one of the biggest supply shocks that the world has ever seen.
When the ripples of that shock moved from country to country, things broke down. The world, at that point just before the pandemic was an amazingly efficient machine. It was wonderful at taking oil and turning it into important things, like Pringles®, hairspray, and cell phone cases.
But, I said that the economy was efficient – that means that all of the parts were needed – there were few wasted factories, and, few wasted workers. We lived in the greatest abundance that the world had ever seen. This abundance was so deep that world hunger was a solved problem. For the first time ever, there were more people in the world that were overweight than hungry.
This was a brief moment in history. In medieval France, for instance, the peasants would spend all winter in bed in a semi-hibernation to conserve food. I guess I just described me at 2:30pm on Thanksgiving, except I’m sleeping off food.
I guess the most popular Christmas song at mental hospitals is, Do You See What I See.
But back to Thanksgiving, what were they giving thanks for?
Having food. Even now as the events still unfold in slow-motion, the loss of abundance is looming. Shortages begin to stack up. A friend tried to buy a pickup, but was told it would be at least six months for it to arrive. He bought a different one.
The price increases we’ve seen are a symptom of that lack of abundance – we had shortages because we were finally paying the price for the efficiency of the system – we had shortages of everything except for cash. The powers that be decided to try to paper over the economic problems by flooding the world with that cash, which made people feel better, temporarily, but then led to the shortages we’re still seeing.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine? It’s an example of yet another stress to the systems of the world. Food. Fertilizer. Oil. And a big one as far as Europe is considered? Natural gas. The folks in Europe might need to re-learn how to huddle together for warmth during winter.
I’d tell you how to make an oil well, but it’s really boring.
Abundance came from that finely tuned system. What many don’t realize is that abundance comes mainly from abundant energy. That energy is used everywhere. It’s powering my computer and your computer (or phone) and the car that took me to work and the harvester that brought up the corn to feed the cow that became a steak on my plate last weekend.
Oddly, the Left thinks that by pretending that a new, renewable power will spring into existence, that it really will. That hasn’t happened, or if it did, the power grid certainly isn’t showing it. Widespread blackouts weren’t a feature of my youth – they’re an annual occurrence now, since the system is now overtaxed. It’s gone from resilient, with a capacity that is sufficient for nearly any situation, to one that is regularly broken.
There was a blackout in New York City. People were stuck on escalators for four hours.
Our history of abundance is dependent entirely on our mastery of energy. There are 7.97 billion people on Earth today. My estimate, based on history, is that without the current intensity of energy use, the Earth could support somewhere between 250 million and 500 million people, tops.
Energy is the key for all of that.
Oil is prone to, well, run out. Frakking has provided a very significant way to expand reserves, but conventional oil peaked back in 2016. The oil time, “drill it and pump it” is declining. Frakking can provide a respite, but even those resources are limited.
The choices that lead to a real future, though, are few. Of actual technology that exists and provides sufficient energy to power a civilization, nuclear energy is key. I’d love to suggest fusion power, but sadly, the only version of fusion that we have on Earth exists in very short duration, high-energy pulses, often designed for delivery by intercontinental missiles.
But fission does exist. It’s expensive to produce new fission power plants, but they last for decades. Are there downsides? Certainly. Nuclear waste isn’t great, but I hear it’s still better for your than corn syrup. And residents near Chernobyl can count on one hand the seven reasons why a nuclear meltdown is a bad idea.
But I never trust people from Chernobyl. They’re two-faced.
We actually may be struggling to return to abundance for decades, and I don’t think we’ve fallen nearly as far as we will. The supply disruptions started by the ‘VID and continuing through the Ukrainian War will continue, and will swing farther and farther out of control. This will put pressures on people and increase conflicts, both inside countries and between countries.
Those could be huge, massive wars. But as long as I don’t have to listen to Amy Schumer talk to Chuck Schumer, about cheese, it’ll be alright.