“We hope you enjoyed the beer, oh, like I mean the movie, eh.” – Strange Brew
They never talk about the worst pupil of Socrates: Mediocrates.
I was 22 when I bought two six packs of “Old German Lager®” for $1.25 each. Not each beer, each six pack, and as I recall this was when a decent beer cost nearly a buck a beer. I then went down with my friend to watch the local minor league team play on a Tuesday afternoon. That is something you can do when you’re in college. Now, Tuesday afternoons are mostly 72°F (43 hemi-demi-centi-meters) and partly-fluorescent with a chance of popcorn smells from the communal microwave.
I used to think that the best beer was one that was so cold it was nearly ice, and best served in an ice-cold mug. Then my nephew brought me a hot one on a summer day that he’d been shaking for five minutes. That one was pretty good, too. However, I can say that Old German Lager™ was the single worst beer that I have ever had in my life.
But more on that later.
The world is a really big place. Oh, sure, sometimes people say (when they run into a coincidence) that it’s a small world, but my standard response to that is, “let’s see you paint it.”
I tried to get thinner at the paint store. It didn’t work.
The world really does seem large. When I’ve spent time on a plane flight for work over the breadbasket, I can recall sitting for hours just looking at the patchwork of fields filled with cattle or crops stretching to the horizon. It seems huge.
And it is huge.
The miracle of the modern world is certainly not the iPhone®, but agriculture – it’s what allows people to keep living. Mankind has always known hunger and many people in history have expired from the “diet plan that never fails”. But in the last 20 years, as our population reached the highest levels ever, there were more fat people than starving people for the first time on Earth.
The problem of solving world hunger was no longer a matter of producing the food, it was no longer a matter of being able to distribute the food, it wasn’t even a matter of paying for food – all the hunger on the planet was simply a matter of politics.
In 2022 that won’t be the case.
Fertilizer prices are at record highs. Additionally, the diesel fuel the farmers rely on to plant, harvest and transport the food is at near-record highs. Right now, we’re living on the harvest from last year. This year, we’re perhaps . . . headed towards a disaster.
I’ve mentioned before that Russia and Ukraine together account for around 25% of global wheat exports. Russia has a harvest projected that will lower its exports in 2022, and is currently exporting at least some grain (though I bet China and India have a coupon to jump to the head of the line to buy food). Ukraine? I’m thinking that planting and harvesting and producing fertilizer (Ukraine was an exporter of fertilizer) is the last thing on their minds.
I guess that would make me an entremanure.
Food production is pretty finely balanced with consumption – there is no Strategic Doritos® Reserve that the President can tap into if the party runs low. In reality, the world typically has some buffer – about 100 days (from the latest data I’ve seen) of grain. Most of that isn’t in countries that are importers – it’s in grain silos near the farms, waiting for shipment to the Doritos™ factory.
That’s good news. But the recent things I’ve seen show that, at least in the United States, farmers are attempting to plant everything they can, but the markets today are weird. Several stories have pointed out that some local grain elevators aren’t buying grain, because they’re worried the market will collapse and they won’t be able to sell the grain at a profit.
The farmers depend on those sales to buy . . . fertilizer and diesel. Will prices collapse? Probably not, since money printing even more money seems to be the only thing that Congress can agree on. It will be painful in the United States. It may be catastrophic in countries where the oligarchs live on $0.47 per day.
A friend’s wife ran off with a tractor salesman. She wrote him a John Deere® letter.
The world economy is likewise balanced in the production of “stuff”. There’s a shortage of cars. Why? There’s a shortage of chips. So, the 20-year-old hulk of a car that has traveled just as long as light travels in a second that I have for a spare if my spare breaks down has doubled in price in the last year. Last year, it was worth $2,000. Now, Pugsley says it’s going for $4,000.
Progress, I guess, if you own a used car that’s within three oil changes of traveling as far as the Moon’s orbit. I might even get a few extra bucks from Elon Musk.
Metals are likewise going through the roof – basics like copper and nickel are increasing. I got a burger last week – it was up 25% – in two weeks. Tires? The local dealership said that they were up 25%. This month. And PEZ®? Forget about it.
Want inflation?
It’s here.
The drivers that started the snowball running down the cliff was all the free money during the Great ‘Rona Rave of 2020-2021-2022. Politicians have the idea that they have to do something, even if it’s stupid. Printing money and paying people not to work is, 100%, stupid.
Of course, the next idea is one right out Nixon’s playbook – before the election, heat up the economy so that everything is running on full speed when the votes are cast. It’s the same idea as throwing vodka in the punchbowl to get the party going. Hangovers? Who worries about hangovers at midnight?
Except if you’re drinking Old German Lager©. I said that Old German Lager™ was the worst beer in the world. It was. We drank it and it tasted, at best, questionable. But it’s beer, right?
Well, about the sixth inning the headache started. But neither my friend nor I were in the slightest bit buzzed. We were completely sober, but had gone straight to the hangover.
“Premium” might be false advertising.
That’s what we’ve done. Like Nixon’s inflationary party in the 1970s, we went straight into the tough times. We went from the Vietnam boom to the bust, complete with high oil prices and a Cold War. We are in the hangover part of history.
And this time, we didn’t even get the buzz.
There is a way out, but only if we are willing to follow the Glorious Example Of The Dear Leader…
https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-encourages-use-poop-make-manure-fertilizer-shortage-reports-2022-1
Ahhh, Dear Leader. One thing, Atkins has worked for him.
Looks like we’re going to need a bigger chest freezer! The last time we had a financial crisis looming at my house we went into belt tightening mode around here and only bought perishables. Started eating from the larder and chest freezer 5 foot cubes but only 2 of us. After a month I could see that my 6 month estimate of reserves was way off. But I digress…
Your beer story reminds me of the weird time between finals and graduation ceremony in college. We were graduates technically, but had to hang around for the silly hat and robe party. So there was nothing much to do but pack (4 hours) and drink (4 days). A local liquor store was selling Strohs 12 packs about 4.99 which was cheap in ‘90. The catch? They were plenty past the best by date. We didn’t even try to chill them, had great fun keeping a couple under the armpits to warm em up more.
Glad I have the picture with chancellor, cause I’m not sure I remember it.
An easy rule of thumb for your pantry: 1 pound of flour (or sugar) has the energy you need for a day (about 2000 Kcal, or “food calories”, because we American’s can’t be troubled to keep track of the SI prefix). Whether it’s carbs or protein or some random blend, 1 pound per day. Fat is more calorie dense, so a half-pound of butter would probably suffice. This doesn’t count the water content of many foods, and doesn’t pay any attention to vitamins and minerals. But when you’re looking at a 100 lb. bag of flour, you looking at 4 months of food.
Lathechuck please go on this diet today :-). Give us a report in a month. Also give us a report on the amount of non-chair work you manage during this month.
Calories are important, so is nutrition. You may have just posted a partial thought but somebody out there is going to grab 100 pounds of flour and think they are good.
Carbs can be the bulk of your diet, but active adults require a decent amount of protein or their body starts breaking down muscle to feed it’s self. It’s called auto-cannibalism.
VITAMINS are important, the MOST COMMON failure of “Survival Foods” is lack of VITAMIN C.
Ever hear of Scurvy? Immune system failures, healing failures making your skin to break down into sores, teeth falling out and so on.
I could go on about the other vitamins your flour diet would miss but this is a comment not a article.
Beans and rice plus a multi-vitamin would be ok and almost as cheap as flour. I’d suggest you cook a up a weeks worth as to learn what spices you like 🙂
Yes – the time is now. Stock up – I beat Joe talking about the coming hunger by a couple of days . . .
Cool! In one second, light travels (through vacuum, but air doesn’t slow it down much) 186.4K miles (I’d convert it to rods or furlongs or some such, for your amusement, John, but I’m too lazy). So my ’07 Ford Escape has that beat. Pretty sure it isn’t going to make it to 2 light-seconds, though. I live up here in northern Indiana, where the roads get plenty-o-salt. Crawled under the thing the other day, after a pothole murdered a rear shock absorber, and noticed that the outer longitudinal subframe member on the driver’s side had lost about two-thirds of its cross-section to the dreaded Rust Cancer. Having put a pair of shocks in it, I have to drive it as long as I can, just to get some use out of them. Besides, I want to see what the failure mode is. The irresponsible part of me — and that’s about 80% — hopes it’ll straight-up break in half while I’m driving it down the road. That might be exciting. But I’m pretty sure it’ll be more graceful than that. At some point, the aft part of the body will probably flex enough to render the rear doors and liftgate inoperable. That’ll be the signal for the final trip to the boneyard.
Oh — in the caption of the repeat of the first meme, there’s a typo. You transposed the C and the R in Mediocrates. Mediocrates is a good one. I’ll likely steal it at some point.
Kansas State’s Ag Economics eggheads estimate fertilizer prices are still too low: +20% for N, +60% for P, and +75% for K. We import about 12-18% of annual N and P usage from friendly neighbors. However, we import almost all (94%) of our K, and 18% of that from Russia and Belarus. We should be able to reduce K usage nationwide this year without too much impact, but persistent shortfalls are going to hurt production levels.
K is mined and sold as Potash – Russia and Belarus produce 1/3 of global supply. The main USA producer of K is IPI (stock price has doubled).
Thanks for the tip. I put in an order for a few shares.
Now, I just have to hope the stock market doesn’t collapse again.
I think they’re right. And we’re turning corn into fuel . . . (shakes head)
Meanwhile I have two vehicles in need of significant, expensive parts and both are on “indefinite backorder” which would be cool but we depend on one of them to make the mortgage payment. To replace my big van means a $40,000 used Chevy van or I can wait for 18 months for a new one.
I had a high-mileage Tiburon that needed some work. I just sold it for 3500 dollars.
I bought it in 2009, for $21K. I paid it off in 5 years, and continued driving it around until last summer, when I moved. My husband took it out once or twice a week, while I mulled over the decision to sell. Finally, the ongoing trouble with my knees made me decide to sell (it’s a 6-speed).
So, $21K – $3500/ 13 years.
$1346 a year for transportation. Per month, that’s $112 to drive.
I generally keep my rides for 10-15 years. My current car is a 2003 Lincoln LS, with just a smidge under 50,000 miles. I expect to keep it for at least 3-5 years, perhaps longer, as I am seldom taking long trips in it.
The crowd that leases their cars is about to discover that they are screwed. Parts for repairs will not be available. The leasing company will not let them out of the lease early, without a substantial penalty. They will be paying big bucks for an undriveable car.
Both our cars are paid for, and we expect to drive them for a good while.
Fixed! Thank you!
I fixed it – thank you for the note!!!
I like to drive ’em forever, too. Best car payment is no car payment.
Just bought a second freezer for our tribe as a hedge against the food shortages the PTB have engineered. Our original is almost 20 years old and not sure how much longer it will go on working. We were lucky as our local appliance store had a shipment coming in and were not sure when they would see the next one (another reason we acted now).
When stationed at Grissom AFB, IN in the late 70s, I was a Freight Traffic Specialist before I was allowed to retrain as a Boomer. Ever Friday we would shut down operations at about 1400 hrs and we would give our office space and freight warehouse a GI party. Once completed we would go into the warehouse section of our building and the Senior NCOs would produce a case of ice cold Strohs. We would sit around in a semi-circle and listen to their war stories from their Vietnam and Thailand adventures. Best mentoring of what not to do during your time in the military. Once the duty day was over, we would move the party over to the NCO club that was right across the street from our barracks. Made staggering to your bunk less challenging then when I started flying and had to stagger another 1/4 mile to the aviator barracks (stories from my wasted youth).
Although I do feel like I am living through the 1970s again I don’t think my old body (and liver) can take the damage I did to it back then. I continue to advise all of my clients to invest in canned goods and shot guns as we are in for a very bumpy ride. Stay safe and vigilant!
And mouse traps.
Total bummer to discover your hoards are ate (or pooped in) by somebody in a different species…
Good investment calls . . .
Your post reminds me of the ruminations of my parents and grandparents that experienced the Great Depression. They survived, but many found a meal a luxury, while they searched for a shelter for the night. Entire families wandered, hoped, and searched for something more than the life of destitution. Fortunes evaporated, land lay unplanted, and only one of the worst wars in history employed enough to send the rest for population reduction.
As a species, we have the greatest resources to allow successful bartering between all nations. Unfortunately, we also have the greatest resources to destroy millions through subterfuge and outright violence. We should be better, but we allow those drunk on power to control our lives. I’m sure there is a Latin phrase that sums this up, but I doubt they said “This sucks!”
In the Great Depression, how many folks had gardens, or lived on a farm? Now?
Scary times.
Inflation will be bad until it can’t be. We’re rapidly approaching that point. Folks will do without, buy used, find alternatives. Government, in their infinite wisdom, will do quotas and price controls. Is it going to suck? Yes. But those that can innovate, repair, and question conventional wisdom to rediscover old ways (with new twists) are going to do okay. Be one of those, while you still have the internet to speed your journey.
We’re all going to be poorer. Communist societies always are. Accept it and get on with living.
We will. And the dollar will be worth less. Or worthless.
What should be really interesting will be when all of this crap all hits the fan at once, racial division, violent political division, economic collapse that drags the whole country down and a billion guns thrown in for fun.
The racial, political, and generational conflicts are all, to some extent, local and manageable by building tolerant social networks. The economics, not so much. “Love thy Neighbor” as if your life depends on it. It might.
The modest step that I’ve taken in that direction is to start a bunch of garden plants (tomatoes, in particular) under lights, and give them away to interested neighbors. It’s trivially generous, and gives us a structure for making connections and comparing outlooks. As time goes by, we’ll be sharing techniques and results, I’m sure. It’s a start.
Someone once calculated that spaghetti was the cheapest, most easily stored (dense and non-perishable) source of calories and protein. It’ll taste better with some tomatoes.
Lathechuck, I like this comment :-). Just as an aside tomatoes are the easiest plant to multiply using cuttings. A sucker that you cut off to help prevent disease can be placed in a damp bit of good soil after a dip in rotting compound (Or aspirin water) and most will grow into a new tomato plant.
I’ve bought one of those too early tomato plants from the store and made several more in time for planting. Often do it in early spring to make a new salvo of tomato plants for friends and to replace what the voles ate.
(need to get the deer fence up)
Yup. But those are my posts for next week.
“…heat up the economy…”
Back in MBALand had to do volumnious required reading, and one article (backed up w/ neat charts & graphs) was that the Prez, if up for re-election, always gooses the economy starting around 18 months before election day. So, it’s not just for someone who isn’t a crook anymore.
Yup, but how do you heat up the Hot Pocket if it’s already in the microwave?
John, it is only beginning to permeate the general consciousness that the “triple-witching’ (I do not actually understand that word but love it) of higher fuel prices, reduced fertilizer, and reduced food production is going to impact everything. Every single thing. You can still have your beloved tech device, but you will likely end up with no fuel to drive anywhere in your car you cannot get parts for to take pictures of a very simple meal to post on Social Media. The only mildly amusing thing in all of this to me will be watching Our Political And Social Betters (OPASB) continue to flail in wider and wider circles as they try to do everything but the right thing.
Penguin books has three of Plato’s speeches together titled as The Death of Socrates. It is one of my favorites.
TB-
The Q is if yoiu can BUY a car. Paid cash for a ’22 Tundra on 12/18. “It’ll be delivered 1/15. Sorry, 2/10. For sure 3/8-9. Well, looks like mid-April.”
Lamont – Fair point. Man, sorry about the delay. That must be incredibly frustrating.
I think they’ll be forced to push on a string – all of their levers of power are shot.
Engineered by great resetters is the sad part.
The Long Marchers thrive on chaos and crisis that they never let go to waste.
It is opportunity for the comrades.
The Red Guards will be told that food hoarders are shirkers and that your pantry should be redistributed for the good of the collective.
That’s when the historic hot lead projectiles czar emerges.
Weidemann’s and Falls City was the cheap beer back in the misspent youth.
A headache and if you were lucky no Ralph I want to buy a Buick.
Found a full case of Coors Light under a Sack-N-Save cart before the Stig Beal and enjoyed it, that seems like ages ago now but it was only two years back.
(Now I have Aldo Nova echoing in my nugget)
Yup – preppers will be called hoarders. So, for heaven’s sake, don’t share that you’re prepping.