Life is Struggle. Struggle is Easier with Panzers. Especially if You’re Struggling with France.

“Your death will stand as a landmark in the continuing struggle to liberate the parent land from the hands of the Roman imperialist aggressors, excluding those concerned with drainage, medicine, roads, housing, education, viniculture and any other Romans contributing to the welfare of Jews of both sexes and hermaphrodites.” – Life of Brian

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Fun fact:  the first winner of the Tour de France was a Panzerkampfwagen III.

A few years back I worked with a friend named Will.  Will was one of the more creative people I’d ever worked with.  One particular week, I knew he had a deadline to finish a rather significant project for our boss that Friday.  It was Tuesday and I asked him if he had finished it, since he was goofing off enough to make George R.R. Martin’s writing progress look like a cocaine-snorting crotch-weasel.  And cocaine-snorting crotch-weasels move pretty fast.

Will responded, “No.  I think I’ll start on Thursday afternoon.”

In the conversation that followed Will admitted that work was pretty easy for him.  “But if I wait until I have some important deadline, until I’m not sure that I have enough time to finish, then work gets pretty interesting.”  He was completely serious.  He didn’t really care if he got fired or in trouble – he just wanted life to be interesting.  I thought about it, and, looking back, had noticed that I had done much the same thing.  In fact, it’s so common, there are thousands of posters and jokes about it.  I mean, if they threatened to kill one of my friends each hour I procrastinated, I could probably be pretty productive.  But, you know that depends, too:  which friend?

In retrospect, this points out that winning doesn’t make people happy, in and of itself.  If that was the case, Will would have done his work in advance and goofed off later rather than earlier.  That’s simply not the case.  Most people do the same and procrastinate in some fashion.  Statistics show anywhere from 25% to 95% of people procrastinate.

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Procrastination will be my downfall.  Emphasis on “will”.   

That’s a wide enough range to be utterly meaningless.  And since social scientists did the study, I trust it about as much as I trust drunken toddlers run the legislative branch of our government.  Congressmen probably would agree with me, since I know that they generally really hate that kind of competition from intellectually superior people who are at least attempting to be potty trained.

Why procrastination?

I think there’s a lot of stress today in the workplace because the work is no longer optimized for the worker, it’s optimized for the lowest common denominator.  Most companies want most processes to be able to be done by someone of limited *ahem* intellectual means.  That makes the pool of qualified workers so much bigger, and they can pay lower wages.  Keep in mind, this doesn’t mean that everyone who’s working a job that’s designed for an I.Q. of 85 has an I.Q. of 85 – far from it.  But take someone of average (100) I.Q. and dump them in an 85 I.Q. job?  There is more than a little potential for boredom.

And with that boredom can come mischief.

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Horseplay?  Quit foaling around.

The best possible job for anyone has certain characteristics – you know what’s expected of you.  You have the tools to do it.  Crucially, the job can’t be so easy that it’s trivial.  The job should also not be so hard as to be frustrating.  There’s that middle road, where you’re learning, where there’s enough challenge to keep you fully engaged in the work.  Thankfully, many jobs have a ladder where as you increase your competence, you get increased responsibilities.

The downside, of course, is that the most skilled carpenter might make a really crappy carpenter foreman.  The skill set from one spot in the organizational hierarchy to the next step up may not even be remotely related.  The idea and general practice of promoting the best carpenter to foreman at least has one advantage – at least we know that the foreman is good at something.  That something may not be leading people, but worst case, his people know he’s good with a hammer.

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H.P. Lovecraft loved getting hickies, but would only get them from neck romancers.

I’ve mentioned the following story more than once, but I keep bringing it up because it was one of my “a-ha!” moments of understanding in life.  In the very old HBO® series Dream On the protagonist was a literary agent.  He had a secretary named Toby, who specialized in being unhelpful.  In one episode, Toby was at work, playing a supermarket simulator on the company computer.  She started as a bag boy.

“Cleanup in Aisle 9!” she screamed at one point in the episode.  She showed an intensity playing the game that she never showed on her job.  “I’ve been moved to cashier!”  She was thrilled at the promotion.

Finally, her crowning achievement.  Toby had won the game.

“I did it!  I did it!  I’m the manager!” she yelled, with excitement.

A long pause.

“Of a supermarket . . .”

Now her voice had dropped into a questioning tone.

“that doesn’t exist.”  The last line was delivered with profound sadness and self-awareness that her day had been wasted.

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Me:  What’s up, glitches?

Toby, the secretary had been thoroughly engaged in the game in a way that was never available to her in real life.  I’ve played a few video games since seeing that episode, but for the most part that one line stripped them bare to me:  “Manager . . . of a supermarket . . . that doesn’t exist.”  It showed that her victory was as hollow to her as the skull of a congresswoman from New York.

Since many jobs have been defined downward in so many ways, I can certainly see the rise of gaming.  Gaming sells the experience people want and need.  Good games provide a tutorial system to show you how to use the controls.  They then run you through a series of challenges that teach you to be more competent with the in-game systems and controls, and provide tools that are in many cases only barely adequate for the job, requiring focus and concentration for you to succeed.  Winning the game requires an investment of work, study, concentration, focus, and control.  And $60.

Games provide the challenges that work really should be providing to the younger generation.  They often have tools and abilities that far exceed what their job should provide.  How do they cope?  Killing cops, stealing cars, shooting radioactive zombie cowboys.  But eventually you have to go home so you can play your game that you paid $60 for.

Gaming is popular because humans are machines built to compete.  If life offers sufficient competition to keep us interested?  Fine.  But if living standards are great and everything is going well, but the people aren’t challenged?  Hello, World War One.  There was simply no reason for Europe to descend into that madness other than things were going well and the people were rich and bored.

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If you survive assault, pepper spray, and mustard gas, are you a seasoned veteran?

Easy success is boredom.  What happens to a society, a world, where success is set on easy?  It breeds discontent.  We see that in Europe now.  Germany was nice and happy and reunited and things were going well.  Boring.

Here’s an idea!  Let’s import a bunch of foreigners.  That should spice things up!  Foreigners now make up 12.8% of the population, but commit 34.7% of the crimes, according to the Wall Street Journal®.  Why do they commit the crimes?  I’m pretty sure I don’t care.  But why would Germany want to import a population that commits 30% of the murders and over 41% of the burglaries?  They were bored.  Things were going too well.

Normally, when things were going too well, Germany would fire up the panzers and take a trip west, but that turned out just to be too easy.  And I like giving the French a hard time – I get more visitors from Malta (Want Some Short Term Gain and Long Term Pain? Also, Malta.) than from France.  And the Germans certainly couldn’t take over Malta, mainly because the distance to Malta isn’t measured in panzers per baguette.

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I recently read a book about French war heroes.  That was an inspiring six pages.

But if you have the difficulty of your society set too hard?  Riots and revolution and turning into a tyrannical dictatorship.  The difficulty is no easier, but at least you get brainwashing and random executions, so there’s that.

Western Civilization has been fairly stable is that it’s built on two fairly strong foundations – capitalism and hierarchy.

Crony capitalism is inevitable.  If I were to say “in a properly functioning capitalist society” I’d be no better than the Leftist weasels that lament that their particular brand of Hell on Earth has never been tried.  No.  Capitalism in the United States isn’t fair, and the rich get to make a lot of the rules and restrict competition.  But you have the ability to join them.  The system isn’t so rigged that mobility is impossible.  And you can certainly trace out a comfortable life, especially if you’re born rich.

But capitalism really does provide competition – it’s hard to dominate a system (unless your name is Bezos) that is so huge, just like Jeff’s mistresses butt.  It’s a game of nearly infinite complexity.  You can play as hard and as long as you want on so many different angles.  That leads to stability.

The other factor leading to stability is hierarchy.  Men, left alone, will soon develop a hierarchy.  They want the hierarchy.  It gives them a place.  It creates (generally) healthy competition to reach the top, unless your name is Macbeth.  That hierarchy is often replicated in structures across the country – from homeowners associations at the very bottom, to Elon Musk at the very top.

Sure, there is only one Elon, but you can live in the middle to upper half of the hierarchy without having to even have a job.  There are many activities that pay nothing and lead to huge amounts of mojo.  Musician.  Biker.  Actor waiter.

Blogger.

And, yes, there are days when I put off things, too.  I’ve had this one project I need to do at work.  I’ve had it since July.  It’s due next Friday.

Guess I should be starting that one pretty soon . . . .

Life Insurance? Nah, They Can Suffer.

Dot:  I’m sure you have the life insurance squared away?
Ed:  Have we done that honey?  We gotta do that honey!
Dot:  You’ve got to do that H.I.!  Ed’s got her hands full with this little angel.
H.I.:  Yes, ma’am.
Dot:  What would Ed and little angel do if a truck came along and splattered your brains all over the interstate?

-Raising Arizona

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Is it just me, or was it Transformers® who started the trans debate with whole “robots identifying as trucks” thing?

A long time ago, Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert®, came up with a handy, short guide to finances.  His quip was, “I’d write a book of financial advice, but it would only be one page long.”  I wrote about it before, but that was two years ago and this will be funnier.  The nice thing is that his list of financial advice is simple, and applicable to most people in normal times (from, say 1950 to 2020):

  1. Make a will.
  2. Pay off your credit cards.
  3. Get term life insurance if you have a family to support. 
  4. Fund your 401k to the maximum.
  5. Fund your IRA to the maximum.
  6. Buy a house if you want to live in a house and can afford it.
  7. Put six months’ worth of expenses in a money-market account.
  8. Take whatever money is left over and invest 70% in a stock index fund and 30% in a bond fund through any discount broker and never touch it until retirement.
  9. If any of this confuses you, or you have something special going on (retirement, college planning, or tax issues), hire a fee-based financial planner, not one who charges a percentage of your portfolio.

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I don’t carry life insurance – I want to die just as I was born – as a burden to my family.

I think, for various structural reasons, normal times won’t continue, but I’ve blogged about that more than once.  We’re seeing inflation accelerate (10 Years (or less) To A $10 Big Mac – How To Explain Inflation To Your Friends) and we are, perhaps, getting ready to party like its 1859 again.  So, yeah.  It all might be going to hell, but it could also be much better than my worst projections, and some of the above might matter.  Yeah, I know, this is like having a mortician say, “But on the bright side….”

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My insurance company is dependable – every month since I’ve had my policy they’ve sent me a bill.

So far, I’ve accomplished most of the things on the list above by Mr. Adams.  When I’ve varied from the suggestions, I’ve actually suffered financially – Scott is a pretty shrewd fellow, and he’s certainly more successful financially than most people.  For instance, if I had kept more money in the market, I would be that much more heartbroken when Netflix™ costs $12.  Not $12 a month, but $12 for the whole company.

Being wrong in my case is okay – I’m in pretty good shape financially – I was able recently to add meat to the Hamburger Helper® (I’m not saying it was hamburger, and what neighborhood will miss a cat or two?), so not being 70% in the stock market has been okay.  I’m able to sleep better at night and not worry.

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Sadly, Hamburger Helper™ only works if the hamburger wants help.

But one thing on Mr. Adams’ list above that isn’t on mine anymore:  life insurance.  Sure, I take the company life insurance policy because it’s cheap super cheap, and if I were to pass away, The Mrs. would get the princess-ly sum of $500,000, which in the year 2029 will buy you a pack of illegal vaping juice.  I hope (on any given day) that I’m worth more alive than dead to her.

Besides, if anything suspicious happened to me, she’s an author and her Internet browser history looks a list of creepy websites the Zodiac Killer was too scared to go to.  The Mrs. could be 100% innocent, but it would still be difficult to explain why she’d spent several weeks researching “undetectable poisons to kill your bald husband with.”  Wait.  That’s just a bit too specific.

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Mental note:  eat only what The Mrs. eats.  Also:  wear a helmet.

The purpose of life insurance is simple – it’s not a lottery – it’s a mechanism so that if the breadwinner was to die early, the family could be financially secure without the income they provided.  But what financial security does my family need to provide for?  The Boy is off at college, and with his scholarships I think he pays tuition, room and board in pocket lint and beef jerky wrappers because it doesn’t cost very much to go to Bob’s State University and Discount Amateur Asbestos Mine if you do really well on the ACT®.

Pugsley will in a few short years be off at college, too, and that’s it.  Our last financial challenge.  We’re in good shape for that today.  Also, if I were to die, the major source of weird family expense goes away.  The Mrs. is unlikely to spend nearly as much as I do on hobbies like ham radio.  I know that no one was more shocked than I was to find out that you couldn’t use a store bought ham.  I think you have to get a fancy farm raised ham.

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If a pig eats ham, that must make a really good radio?

So if I passed on, then what?  The Mrs. would have to get by on our nest egg, which should work great as long as she doesn’t’ have any fancy needs, like electricity.  My need for life insurance now is nearly zero.

But it wasn’t always so.

When I was younger, I actually bought the greatest amount of life insurance the company offered.  The nice thing about life insurance is that it’s one product that’s priced appropriately – when you’re youngest, it’s cheapest.  And when you’re older, it costs more.  When I was young, I wanted to make sure that the family had its needs taken care of.  I don’t recall it ever costing much more than $30 a month, and that was for $2 million or more.

That was good.  When The Boy was first born, we didn’t have much as far as savings and we had almost two decades to plan for.  And we had no idea if he would get scholarship after being dropped on his head all of those times.  Now?  We can afford to go bowling whenever we want.  And we can get some of that fancy box wine when company comes over.  And our risks as a family have dropped significantly.

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Think of box wine as juice boxes for adults.

Frankly, I never needed life insurance at all.  It was a product I was paying for that did me absolutely no good.  I would never see a dime of return.  Silly people I live with, wanting to be protected.

But in 2019, what would I add to Scott Adams’ list?

  1. Live in a safe place. Think about population density when you determine safety.  Be there and be part of the community.  If the place is too big to recognize people in the stores regularly?  It’s probably too big.  Be there sooner rather than later.
  2. Have food. Start with a month’s worth – nobody thinks you are crazy for having a month’s worth of food.  More is better.  Farming areas are nice – people are generally friendly, and they make the food.
  3. Be able to get water. Clean water is good, but there are ways to make water clean.
  4. Know what you can’t live without. If it’s PEZ® or insulin or fabric softener, know and either save it up, or learn how to do without.  I regularly shame The Mrs. pancreas to try to get it to produce insulin.  No luck so far.
  5. It teaches you what you need and don’t need faster than anything.
  6. What would you add?
  7. Did I mention PEZ™?

Leftism is a Religion, and Kipling is the Cure

“Remember, we can’t question the mores of the natives.” – The Man Who Would Be King

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Our main weapons are . . . oh, sorry.  I triggered Briana by saying “weapon.”  To the safe spaces!

I had a subject picked out for today – despite your thinking that I might think up these topics in a booze and PEZ® induced haze on the spur of the moment by throwing Velcro®-covered toddlers* at a “Wilder Post Idea” mat placed on the wall to come up with humorous combinations of idea, I don’t.  Maybe I should – it actually sounds like a lot of fun, except, well, having to be around toddlers.  The upside would be throwing them.

No, dear reader, I try to map out these posts at least two weeks in advance using the much less amusing no-toddler-involved pen and notecard method.  I then do notes and research at least a few days in advance.  But last week I looked at my notes for the post I had planned.  It’s a big, complicated, ambitious post, so I’d been working on those notes for more than a week.

It’s not ready yet.

Thankfully, I have toddlers, Velcro© and a wall I have a list of ideas for posts written on notecards that I keep in several notecard boxes.  I’ve got several hundred ideas, depending on the category.  In truth some of them are little more than crude sketches in in crayon.  In reality, these are not second-rate ideas – they’re just ideas that I haven’t gotten to yet.  And I pulled this one out of the box:

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It means: “Leftism as a religion.”  It’s obvious, right?

You may or may not have a religious beliefs – I do.  I don’t bring up my religious beliefs on this blog as religious concepts for the purpose of discussing religion – I’m not the guy who would be good at that.  I try to stick with religion and how it relates to society.  With the exception of the immediate cultural references and political figures of our time, I aim to make a lot (50%?) of these posts timeless – something someone could pick up in 20 years (or 200 or 2000), and still get a chuckle and a bit of wisdom out of while wondering just who the hell Johnny Depp was, and why does the Great Bard of The New Dark Ages™, that handsome devil John Wilder keep writing about him.

But in 20 years (or 200, or 2,000), Leftism will still be seen as a religion.

I think religion is built into us, biologically.  In 2012, the best scientific research on this was:

“We have found a neuropsychological basis for spirituality, but it’s not isolated to one specific area of the brain,” said Brick Johnstone, professor of health psychology in the School of Health Professions. “Spirituality is a much more dynamic concept that uses many parts of the brain. Certain parts of the brain play more predominant roles, but they all work together to facilitate individuals’ spiritual experiences.” (LINK)

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Okay, is it just me that thinks that it’s funny that the guy who studies brains and religion goes by the name of “Brick”?

As Brick says, most people have a religious inclination.  Some folks who read this blog are atheists – and I’m not here to try to convert them.  The ones that are here are the cool kind of atheist who, most often, don’t hate people who have religion.  They are, for lack of a better term, libertarian atheists – they don’t care if you believe.  Just leave them out of it.  On average, however, people want to believe in something.  Our brains are hard-wired for it.

And that’s why Leftism appeals as religion – it’s an effective way to drum up a group, and nearly 70% of atheists are Leftist in the United States.  So, Leftism cloaks itself as a rational, political movement, but it’s really a religion:  a religion as weird and deformed as Bernie Sanders’ aorta.  Let me explain:

Religion is a relationship between man and a higher power.  The deformation present in Leftism is that man is that higher power.  Look at the statues to Lenin, Stalin, and the posters of Fidel and Hugo Chavez.  Man has replaced the higher power – man is the object of worship.  Let’s dig a little deeper.

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I saw Lenin pick his nose the other day – I always knew that communists had no class.

The components of a religion are:

  • A belief system that doesn’t require proof.

It’s taken on faith. Leftism doesn’t require any more proof than is in Hillary’s chardonnay.  Every single Socialist or Communist government has resulted in thousands to millions of deaths, and all of them fail, either Soviet-style, Cuba-style, or Venezuela-style over time.  Ask an ardent socialist or communist, and they really will tell you that socialism in Venezuela would have really worked if only it had been given a chance.  I guess 10,000,000% inflation (per year) in a country with the greatest oil reserves in the world is a sign of a successful, functioning socialist economy.

  • There are (in most religions) demons – a power opposing the higher power.

Just as people are the higher power in Leftism, people are also the demons.  It’s the unbeliever (people like you and me) that is causing difficulty.  Leftism is great at finding and identifying scapegoats to point at to proclaim that they are the cause of all problems, Stalin and Mao were awesome at that(In the World Murder Olympics, Communists Take Gold and Silver!).  Most commonly, it’s people who are successful.  In Leftist terms, people are successful only because they are taking the success that rightfully belongs to the victim class.  Communism is great at finding villains, and great at finding victims, too.  Sadly, it runs out of the money of the villains.

  • There is a method of salvation.

The method of salvation for a Leftist is joining the Left.  It is becoming versed in the various High Holy Words of Leftist Salvation such as privilege, Climate Change© (formerly Global Warming™, the 1%, racist, social justice, assault rifle, greed, change, economic justice, fascist, and progress.  No actual change in personal comfort is required – taking a private jet to transport Leo and his starlet of the week to a Climate Change® conference is okay, as long as Leo keeps repeating that fossil fuels are evil.  I mean, a Leftist donates one kidney, he’s a hero.  When I donate ten?  They called me a monster.

  • There are sins – rules that cannot be broken.

You would think that most actions that were counter to the High Holy Words of Leftist Salvation would be wrong and would brand you a sinner.  That’s wrong!  You can falsely claim a person of another race put a noose around your neck when you went to Subway®.  It’s sad that you then have to hire immigrants do it, because it’s a job American’s won’t do.  Or falsely claim that a person of another race cut your dreadlocks.  Obviously, these are racist acts, but there is to be no punishment for them, because being a racist isn’t a sin, as long as you are a believing Leftist.  Being rich because you’re an evil capitalist isn’t even a sin.  There is only one true sin:  heresy (see below).

  • There is heresy.

This is the ultimate sin.  Thinking a thought counter to the ideals of the Left is bad, and itself punishable by re-education in a Leftist government.  But to dare utter a thought that’s counter to one of the catechisms of the Left?  That is the ultimate sin:  heresy.  Wrongthink.  Thoughtcrime.  But it’s okay if you’re not from this country.  You can ignore all of the above, because it’s wrong to judge an immigrant on a moral basis.  I mean, what could go wrong with marrying your sister?

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I’m worried about a cat and chardonnay shortage in 2023.

Don’t get me wrong – I don’t think that the people on Wall Street care about me any more than your average communist.  But thieves and people on Wall Street (but I repeat myself) only want my money.  Leftists want my money and my soul, The Mrs.’ soul, and the souls of my children in exchange for power.  I keep wondering . . . what’s the catch?

I used to enjoy engaging in light argument for fun with people who disagreed with me politically.  It was nice.  I learned a lot.  I learned where my arguments were weak.  I learned where I was wrong.  And when I was wrong, I admitted it, gave them the point and moved on.  It was fun – a great way to be exposed to new ideas and learn.  One two hour argument with me being pro-Second Amendment arguing with a friend who was against gun ownership ended . . . when I asked him if he had a gun.  He started laughing, and admitted he had what CNN® would call an arsenal.  He was having fun with me for two hours.  But I learned.

I don’t do that in person anymore.  If a friend who is Leftist brings a point up, mainly I’ll ask questions.  I don’t argue.  Friendly light arguments have gone from an enjoyable conversation to one where true emotion is unleashed and the person on the Left gets angry.  Heresy, you know.  So, I ask questions.  I don’t try to make points – I listen, and ask what the solutions should be.  But interjecting Wrongthink?  It simply won’t work.

That, primarily, is the difference between the Right and the Left.  The Right is confident enough that history has shown that the answers of the Right, though brutal, are effective (Kipling, Gods of The Copybook Headings, and It’s Different This Time).  The answers of the Right will return, not because they are ideologically pure, but they are the only methods known that actually work.  I’ll leave the word last to Kipling*.

*No toddlers were hurt in the writing of this post or the associated poem.

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I spent several hours trying to fix the kipling on my car today with Pugsley.  Turns out it was just a corroded battery terminal.

Gods of the Copybook Headings,

By Rudyard Kipling, 1919

AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.

We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “Stick to the Devil you know.”

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “The Wages of Sin is Death.”

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “If you don’t work you die.”

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool’s bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

 

Original of Crayon drawing by “My daughter Teresa” [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)] via Wikipedia Commons.

And, no, I don’t have a daughter named Teresa.

10 Years (or less) To A $10 Big Mac – How To Explain Inflation To Your Friends

“You want the solution to inflation?  Hi, friends.  Marshall Lucky here for New Deal Used Cars, where we’re lowering inflation not only by fighting high prices, not only by murdering high prices, but by blowing the living s**t out of high prices.” – Used Cars

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Tom Brady isn’t alone – Lance Armstrong will do anything to his ball to win, too.

I drove to Burger King® for lunch for the first time in a long time.  I don’t eat lunch most days to stay in shape, and I keep reminding The Mrs. that spherical is a shape.  On the days that I do eat lunch, it’s hard to beat Chick-fil-aâ„¢ – they’re fast, they’re polite, the restaurants are clean, and they put massive amounts of heroin in the chicken – there is no other way to explain how addictive those stupid chicken sandwiches are.  I generally prefer beef to chicken, but the people at Chick-fil-a© are wizards.

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I’m still waiting for them to offer a Steak-fil-a® sandwich.  Mmmm, now that’s probably worth a stoning!

Anyway, I ordered a burger, fries, and a drink.  The price for the meal?  Nearly $10.  American dollars – not that wrapping paper they use in Justin Trudeau’s country.  I remember back when a sit down lunch at a restaurant was available for a shiny nickel could be had for less than $5.  $10 for a burger, fries and an iced tea?

This was inflation in action.  Clearly you can see that the government rate of inflation – official truth – shows that inflation is low, at between 0.7% and 3% over the last decade.  But how true is that number?

The government does something interesting contortions when it measures inflation – it fudges the number.  When the government comes up with the inflation number, the government looks at things people buy – say, a computer.  Since computers have gotten roughly a zillion times faster over the last forty years, the government assumes that we’re getting a zillion times more computer for our money.  In one sense that’s true – my computer today has more memory and is far faster than any computer I’ve ever owned and is demanding a living wage, free healthcare, and a right to vote.

But in another sense, my computer isn’t a zillion times better.  I’m using it for a word processor.  Sure, the program is better today than in 1995, but it’s maybe 10% better, which is a metric smuckfest© away from a zillion percent better.

Likewise, if I were to play a game that would have been impossible to play back in 1995, it’s not 500% better.  There were great games in 1995 – Doom® would like a word with anyone who disagrees.  Sure, the richness of the games in 2019 is better, but Alia S. Wilder gave The Mrs. a copy of a video game that came out in 2002 for Christmas 2019.  The Mrs. was thrilled – the storytelling, she said, held up really well.

It’s not only computers, but other products like cars – add an air bag that I didn’t ask for?  That increases the “value” to the government guy doing the calculations even though I never asked for one and it’s never helped me even a little bit.  All in all, computers have been deflating in price according to the government.  This helps to offset some of the hugely inflationary items like healthcare and education.  But I’m not sick, and I’m done with school.  What’s a more realistic gauge of inflation?

Hamburgers.  One of the best gauges is the Big Mac® index:

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If this graph is right, a Big Mac™ will cost $10 in 10 years.  Or it will be made from spare Swedish people – and if you are what you eat, we’ll all be the victims of this policy. 

Graph source, Seeking Alpha® (LINK).

Big Mac© hamburgers are made across the country and the same twoallbeefpattiesspecialsaucelettucecheesepicklesonionsonasesameseedbun has been made for decades with little variation from Portland, ME, to Portland, OR.  Indeed, they’re made across the world and are one gauge of the value of local currency used by The Economist™ to judge the relative purchasing power of local currency.

The cost increase we’ve seen in a Big Mac™ is substantially higher than inflation.  And it’s not because it’s a premier burger on the market – in almost any city you can find a better burger than a Big Mac© so it’s not like McDonalds® can increase the profit on a Big Mac© because people will not take a substitute.  Nobody goes to McDonalds® for excellent food – they go there because of self-loathing because the food is generally consistent.  Heck, your humble author even went there today for research for this article.  You can get a McChicken™ for a McDollar©, but McDonalds® doesn’t include any McHeroin™.

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So, you’re telling me that when Congress is out of money it can just write itself a check and deposit it?

Even before McDonalds®, the United States was no stranger to inflation, just like my waistline.  During the Revolutionary War the Continental Congress authorized $241,552,780 of money to be issued – I still wonder what the $780 was for – Washington’s Netflix® subscription?

There were 2.8 million Americans during that time period and let’s assume that two out of five Americans was working (women stayed home, and kids weren’t required to report to the fish gutting plant until age five) for cash that would be nearly full year’s wages FOR EVERYONE WORKING based on the sources I could find.

The Continental collapsed in value – that’s where the phrase, “not worth a Continental” (which is strangely absent from Urban Dictionary®, the must be behind the times) came from.  After the United States was finally formed, the Continentals were allowed to be redeemed – for 1/40th of their face value in United States bonds.  I’m sure this made everyone who had Continental currency thrilled that they had gotten rid of the King.  At least in Great Britain they had Universal Healthcare and free ocelots in every pot.

The currency collapse of the Continental at least had an echo in the Constitution.  It led directly to the addition of the following clause:  “No State shall . . . make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”  That sounds pretty simple.

Yet.

The Constitution lists the things the government is allowed to do.  Despite reading it again and again, there is absolutely no power listed for the Federal Government to issue money.  None.  Paper money issued before 1863 was primarily issued by private banks, and the value of a paper dollar actually varied, typically dropping if the state was kinda bad at regulating banks or if the state was far away.  The value of a gold coin didn’t vary because gold is gold ().

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I think the Michigan $3 bill would have been more popular if they had put Scarlett Johansen on it, so I put her over the picture of the cow.

When writing this post I ended up writing a LOT about how the government took over the power to create money during the War of Northern Aggression Civil War and the evolution of a single national currency – United States Notes, and then decided it read more like a snarky term paper for Macroeconomics 201, which I already passed back when a Big Mac® was as cheap as my ex-wife.  So I cut it out.

TL;DR:  The story is one of increasing Federal control and centralization of both money creation and supply.  The biggest change was when Franklin Roosevelt confiscated the gold of the American people and made it illegal to own more than five ounces of bullion or coins.  The reason?  Roosevelt wanted to print more money for his alien masters so they would restore the power of walking to his withered limbs, though they betrayed him and turned him into a flightless waterfowl.  Or was that the Twilight Zone®?  Anyway, the real reason was that by law the Federal Reserve had to have 40% reserves in gold on the money it printed.  Back in 1933 apparently they pretended that laws actually applied to people in power.

But Roosevelt stole the gold.

Presto!  More gold for the Fed!  There were several high-profile cases where people were prosecuted for owning gold to keep the masses in line.  Immediately after taking the gold, Roosevelt raised its price by 40%.  He had, effectively, devalued the dollar with a stroke of a pen.  This immediately made everyone in the United States who had money poorer, which, I hear, is exactly the cure for an economic depression.

And that’s inflation:  making money worth less.  What people didn’t realize was that by taking the gold, Roosevelt took away the only constraint on printing money.  145 years after the Constitution was written, that pesky “gold and silver” clause was gone.  There’s no way that this turns out bad, right?

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Too bad they already had enough air guitarists.

Nixon took the next logical step – he removed any constraints on printing by revoking the gold standard – the dollar was now backed by nothing.  Ford, dimly realizing it didn’t matter, made gold legal to own again since after forty years it ceased to be considered money by people.  Gold was a curiosity.  Silver had been dropped from America’s coins in the 1960’s as a “cost saving measure” – so America’s money was based on a promise.  A promise made by Nixon.

We now live in an era where it’s considered virtuous to have a slight inflation of 2% or so a year.  Benjamin Franklin spotted this con over two hundred years ago when he noted that the inflation of the Continental dollar had been a tax to pay for the Revolution.  Inflation is just that, it’s a tax.  It’s a silent one.  You still have the same $100 bill you had last year.  Nobody stole $2 from you.  Except that they did, and they bought themselves something nice, like salaries for everyone at the EPA when you weren’t looking.

The government takes money through taxation.  It also takes money through inflation – and it’s been slowly stealing the savings of every American for nearly 90 years.

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The Fed ruins all the best bikininomics graphs.

Source (LINK)

It feels funny, because many of you have read this before, some of you have read this message 100 times.  Maybe, just maybe the Big Mac® can be worth something as inflation picks up speed.  Perhaps when a Big Mac® costs $10 someone might notice?

Nah.  It’ll be fine.

Success, Luck, and Sexy Bill Gates

“Seriously, I don’t get it.  What, do you shoot luck lasers out your eyes?  It’s just hard to picture.  And certainly not very cinematic.” – Deadpool 2

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Yup.  I sure feel that way when I accidentally tell the ticket taker “I love you, too” after she says, “Enjoy the movie.”

One novel I recall reading back when I was in a kid in junior high was Ringworld by Larry Niven.  Niven’s fiction has always been great because when he thinks about a subject, he thinks about that subject deeply, and spins off great ideas faster than a nudist nursemaid on nitrates.

In the case of Ringworld, the main idea was about taking all the matter in a solar system and putting a big ring around it.  This would have about three million times the surface area of Earth, so if you were kinda bored and needed a weekend project to add a little bit of space to your place, building a ringworld might give you enough room so you didn’t need to rent one of those 8×10 storage units.  That might save you $30 a month!

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I’ll warn you, if your gym teacher makes you do a lap, it might take several hundred thousand years.

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Another view of the Ringworld in motion.

Outside of that huge idea of building solar-system-scale structures, Niven had a dozen others in just that one book (and he did it in other books, too) that made it especially mind bending for a young teenager to read.  One of the ideas was about luck.

In the future that Larry Niven had constructed, parents were limited to the number of children they could have, but you could have an extra child if you won a lottery.  Teela Brown’s parents won that lottery, and so on – for five generations.  In this case, Niven speculated that there might be a gene that made you lucky, and her character was brought into the novel with that genetically-based luck as her superpower, which helped move the plot along in an interesting way.

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I hear religious cannibals only eat Catholics on Friday.

The idea (like a lot of Niven’s other ideas) stuck with me for a while.  I know that there are people who think that the concept of “luck” is magical thinking.  Me?  I think that to discard luck as a concept in a Universe as vast as ours describes an unwarranted degree of certainty about how things really work.  In fact, when talking with people, I often say, “I’m the luckiest person you know.”  I really think that I am a pretty lucky fellow.  Some would even call me a jolly.  And good.

“He is lucky who realizes that luck is the point where preparation meets opportunity,” was an unattributed saying in a 1912 edition of The Youth’s Companion.  That’s a great definition, and it is one that firmly puts you in control of your destiny – most “overnight sensations” work, very hard, for years before success hits.  It’s a concept I sell to my kids frequently because the last thing I want is to allow them, for a single second, to feel like they’re victims of life.  That gives them an excuse not to perform – and they’ll need to pay for my nursing home, and I want them to be able to afford one with pole dancers.

But we need to face an unpleasant truth:  like Teela Brown, some people are just luckier than others.

Can you back that up, John Wilder?  Yes, yes I can.

  • People are born with different abilities – attractiveness, speed, strength, intelligence, cunning. It’s only on rare occasions that a rogue like me is born with all four.  Er, five.
  • Many crucial events in history have swung on luck – Lee’s invasion of Maryland was stopped at Antietam in 1862 because a corporal of the 27th Indiana Volunteers found Lee’s invasion plans in an envelope wrapped around three cigars.
  • Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin because his bacterial slide was accidently infected with a fungus – a penicillin producing fungus.

Talent is normally distributed – it follows a bell curve – most people have average talent, while some have amazing talent.  Most people (in the looks department) aren’t 10’s – they’re 5’s, which is, after all, average.  But variable amounts of talent don’t account for the huge differences in success some people see.  Bill Gates wasn’t the smartest man born in 1955.  Bill Gates wasn’t the hardest working man born in 1955.  Bill Gates wasn’t the man born in 1955 with the richest dad.

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Virus free is good too, Bill.

But Bill Gates was smart, hardworking, and had a rich dad.  And he developed a good system.  But he was also the guy who was in the right place at the right time to help create the personal computer business.  The luckiest moment of Bill Gates’ life?  When IBM© was negotiating with Bill for DOS© for their PCs, and the CEO of IBM said, “Oh, is that Mary Gates’ boy’s company?”  Turns out the CEO of IBM® was on the board of the United Way™ with Bill’s mom.

Lucky.

Luck plays a role in your life.  If you’re born well, that’s a good start.  If you pick the right major at the right time?  That’s another step on the way.  Get associated with the right things at work?  A business that is just the right one at just the right time?  Soon enough you’re the CEO.

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Lucky Charms® are also part of a complete breakfast, but then again so is a spoon, which is also inedible.

I’m not saying that the CEO is unworthy, but I do think that those who rise to the top should understand that there’s a role for luck as well.  Scientific American (LINK) even has an article where a mathematical simulation of talent plus luck equals the creation of the unequal distribution of outcomes we see in the world today where vast amounts of wealth are owned by a small number of people.

Is an unequal distribution an unfair outcome?  No, mainly because people make the individual choices that lead them to their fates – very few people are forced to their position in life.  If I had made several different choices in my life, could I have been the CEO of a major company?  With luck, sure.  But I’m sure that whoever got the job is doing fine, as am I, plus I don’t have to live in a big city and wear a tie more than once a year.

And what about lucky breaks that go way beyond probability?

Yup, I think those happen, too.  But that’s a future post.  If you’re lucky.

Kids, Parents, and Happiness (Plus Orphan Jokes)

“Yeah, but I don’t think anybody would adopt me at this advanced development stage that I’m in.” – The Red Green Show

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That’s not true.  But I do know that the favorite beer of orphans is Fosters®.

My brother was an only child*.  I kid.  But he was the only kid in the house when I showed up.  And by showed up, I mean when I was adopted – I was, I think, four years old at the time.  Of course, this was after the whole virgin birth thing and then being found as a three day old baby by the headwaters of the Odense River in Denmark by Pharaoh’s Mom.  But I was just too much for Denmark to handle.  And too much for Head Start to handle – they kicked me out (really).

I actually remember the day I first called my adoptive mother “Mom.”  As I recall, it was in some utterly mundane sentence, such as “Okay, Mom,” just after the court finalized the adoption.  I can even remember my tension while waiting to see how she would react.  Would she be upset and cry?  Would a whirling orchestral theme surround us as she took me in her arms and wept with joy to have a new son?  Would she . . . tell me not to call her Mom?

None of those things happened.  She just said, “Alright,” and continued as if I had called her Mom a hundred thousand times before and that me calling her Mom was the most normal thing in the world for four year old John Wilder to do.

Mom probably picked the right reaction since we were so poor that we couldn’t afford a live-in orchestra at our house.  I often wondered, was Ma Wilder as tense about that moment as I was?  I know she was tense a year later when she was explaining to the doctor over the phone that I ate all of her birth control pills.  Man, that was the nastiest tasting candy ever.  But the pills had a side effect – I’ve never been pregnant, which I hear is a thing guys can do now.

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One day I was asked by a stranger if I was adopted.  Me:  “Yes, what gave me away?”  Stranger:  “Your parents.”

The advantage of being an outsider dropped into a fully functioning family is that I was able to see a set of customs that were new to me, like having regular meals.  The ordinary day-to-day web of family life was there to see, but it was also there to be disturbed and observed by the alien dropped in the midst of the ranch-style Area 51.

Families have customs, even when they don’t know that they do.  One of the first customs I noticed was when I went to bed, the last thing anyone in the house said to me was, “see you tomorrow.”

For some reason, four or five year-old me found that an odd thing to say.  It wasn’t good night.  It wasn’t good bye.  “See you tomorrow.”  I found it oddly comforting, a promise that I really would see them tomorrow.  That may sound odd to you, but it’s a thing that I really thought about as I stared up at the ceiling from my bed.  It was, I thought, the nicest thing anyone could have said.

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The original line wasn’t “I’ll be back,” it was “See you tomorrow.”  Everyone in the test audience just said, “awwww.”

“See you tomorrow.”  Perhaps it was the impermanence that I’d experienced in my life up until then – being adopted represented at least the fourth major living arrangement change I’d experienced since I was born – but the simple stability implied in those words made me happy as I snuggled under the covers on a warm winter night.

Please don’t think that I ever felt alienated by my adopted family, but it was certainly recognized that I was an alien – a shock of blond hair and freckles in a family of brunettes.  It was like I was the actor hired to punch up a sitcom and dropped into the season 12 opening episode with no backstory.  Again, I was always treated as a regular cast member, and not a recurring guest star.

My family loved me ferociously, and showed it on a regular basis – not only did Pop Wilder give me his name, he also sat and watched every football practice, came to every varsity football game and nearly every varsity wrestling match, and sacrificed years of his life worrying about me.

Kids need families.  Even odd kids like me.

And kids help families.

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I’m still the odd one, but that’s okay – sometimes I discover new things – such as not liking the taste of raw fish heads. 

A recent study out of Europe (LINK), where I thought even saying the words “family” or “child” was considered a hate crime found that married couples with kids were happier than married couples without kids.  But there was a catch – the kids needed to have moved out of the house for the parents to be happier.

Why is that?

As a parent who has one kid in the house and some already gone, I can understand that.  Raising a kid is tough:

  • It’s long hours when they’re sick.
  • It’s home surgery that brings to mind a Civil War surgeon performing an amputation.
  • It’s being covered in vomit that smells like formula while watching a parade on a 95°F day.
  • It’s getting a call that they backed the pickup into the lunch lady’s car. Parked car.  Not moving parked car.  In broad daylight.
  • It’s learning how to yell loudly enough so they can hear you explain why you’re choking them.

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Seven year old kids don’t think it’s funny AT ALL when you tell them that you’re going to have to amputate their arm when they complain about a splinter. 

But those are the dark sides.  There are the positive sides:

  • Seeing your child go from C’s to A’s because they finally figured it out.
  • Seeing your kid finally “get it” and perform better than they ever thought they could at a sport.
  • Watching them solve a problem – by themselves.
  • Getting a text from them on a random day – just because they wanted to send you a text.
  • Seeing them become competent at being an adult.
  • Hearing them tell you that, “I’m doing it, and it’s none of your business,” when they make a decision.
  • Having them pick a very nice nursing home for you because you love them so very, very, very much. (I’m hoping they’re reading this when I’m 103 and drooling.)

The research indicated** childless people are happier than people with kids.  Until the kids move out.  Then the people with kids are happier.  From the list above, I can see that.  From my perspective, children are like incredibly cute parasites until about age 9.  They cost a lot of money, they take up a huge amount of time, and they’re less intelligent than a basset hound who agreed to be on Dancing with the Stars.

Sure, some big headaches come as kids get older.  And around middle school is when the final battle for their soul takes place.  From experience, with my daughters it was one type of battle (“you’re ruining my life”).  With boys it is quite another (“I was supposed to do what?”).  None of the battles are easy, but they represent the last stage, the last opportunity for a major influence.  After that, it’s nothing but minor course corrections until they move out.

I love Pugsley, who is the last chick in our nest.  But I derive a lot of satisfaction from the Wilders who are out in the world – I love seeing them change and grow.  I love seeing them accomplish things.  And I love late night calls where they ask for earnest advice.  I certainly may have given Alia S. Wilder a bit of a hard time in The Lie of Living Your Best Life (now including cookies) and Financial Advisers, Christianity, and Elon Musk’s Hair, but she has displayed a great independence, and has owned her mistakes without blaming others.

But in one way the study is wrong.  Tonight, when Pugsley went to bed, he said, “See you tomorrow.”  I won’t hear that after he moves out, and I’ll miss that beautiful sentiment.  But it will also be their responsibility when they (or their kids) back into the parked lunch lady car.

*For all of you wondering why my brother’s name is also John Wilder?  Is it a joke?  No, he and I have, in real life, the same first name:  John.  Really.  The adoption explains it.  John was born before me, so he had the name first.  I was old enough that they weren’t exactly gonna start calling me by a whole different name after my fourth living arrangement in four years.  Heck, that might have messed me up enough so I would have gotten a doctorate in social sciences.  Thankfully, they already called my brother John by his middle name (Velociraptor, or his nickname “Screech”) before I showed up.

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This was in the library at my house – I found it one day, and my parents claimed to have no idea where it came from.  Perhaps it was left on the shelf by the Lady of the Lake™ to prepare me for my writing career as John Wilder so I could save the United States?  Or maybe they forgot when they got it, since the book was over 25 years old when I found it.  One of the two.  I’m betting on the Aquatic Tart®.

**Research in social sciences is a problem that we face in society as a whole.  It appears that social science research is better than flipping a quarter, but not a lot better than flipping a coin.  Where scientists tried to duplicate the findings of a social science study, they could only do it about 65% of the time.  Sure, that’s slightly better than just guessing, and probably what you would expect with people who kept going to college so they could get a doctorate instead of following their true calling in the food service industry and then figured out how to use government grant money for gluten free locovore vegan tacos while they study how the patriarchy influenced and controlled t-shirt design in 1978.  Don’t forget, these stories are also reported by journalism school graduates.  Journalism school is for rich kids who aren’t smart enough to qualify to get into Yale Law® or even Maria’s Authentic Taqueria and Law School®.

Civil War II Weather Report, Issue 4 – Violence, Censorship, and Beach Volleyball

“No, I quite approve of terror, arson, murder, any tool that serves the revolution.” – Nicholas and Alexandria

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The clock hasn’t moved this month.  We remain at a 7 out of 10.  The scale is from the first issue (LINK).  And generally The Mrs. is ready to go before I am.

  1. Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
  2. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
  3. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  4. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures.  Just in case.

In this issue:  Front Matter – Violence and Censorship Update – It’s All About The Benjamins – Updated Civil War II Index – Who Benefits, Part III? – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to Issue Four of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts are a bit different than the other material at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War II, on the first Monday of every month.  Issue One is here (Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming), Issue Two is here (Civil War Weather Report #2, Censorship, Stalin, and a Bunch of Links), and Issue Three is here (Civil War Weather Report #3: Violence, China, and Lots of Links).

Violence and Censorship Update

Last month when I wrote the Weather Report, the El Paso and Dayton shootings had just happened.  I believe I predicted in the comments that El Paso would have legs, while Dayton would quickly be forgotten.  It didn’t take Nostradamus to predict that – El Paso was attributed to the Right.  Dayton, where a confirmed Satanist Antifa™ member killed bunch of people?  We can ignore Dayton.  That was just random violence by a good boy who just went a little wrong.

Red Flag laws have been the focus of this month’s activity.  I noted in this post (Red Flag Laws, or, How To Repeal The Second Amendment Soviet-Style Without A Pesky Vote) that they would be used inappropriately.  Again, I didn’t need to have psychic powers to predict this.  I landed on a clickbait story from the Puffington Host (I won’t link to them) about 40 “potential mass shooters” having been arrested since El Paso.  Not Dayton, but El Paso.  Odessa happened this weekend.  Assume if the killer’s ideology doesn’t match the required narrative, it will be forgotten.

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Or ever read about it, either.

Most of the arrests have to do with typing things on the Internet or text messages – 28 to be precise.  Making a direct threat of violence is illegal.  Threatening people is illegal.  Making statements in anger is illegal.  At this stage as violence escalates, everything that can be interpreted as a threat will be taken as a threat, so don’t type silly things that you don’t mean online.  Don’t make threats or anything that could be interpreted as one.  Assume that the FBI™ is watching, well, everything.

And if the FBI® isn’t watching something, it’s starting something.  At least one of the arrests last month was an FBI© sting.  I must assume that some FBI™ sting operations are legitimate, but here’s an example of them doing everything but commit the crime (LINK).

From the story:

“The FBI came and picked him up from our home, they gave him a vehicle, gave him a fake bomb, and every means to make this happen none of which he had access to on his own.”

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The FBI would never, ever . . . never EVER be anything less than filled with integrity, right?

Violence was, sadly, the theme of August.  But a secondary theme was censorship.  Several large YouTube® channels were deleted without any warning, without having violated any of YouTube’s© rules.  I had only heard of one of the deleted channels, and, although the others were reinstated, the one that stayed deleted was the one I watched:  James Allsup.

I had listened to a few of his videos on YouTube® – he’s a talented, engaging speaker, and he seemed to have no real controversial views.  He had half a million subscribers.  After doing some research, I found out he is about 23 years old – I don’t have a full background report on him but it looks like when he was between the ages of 19-21 he was more radical, because we know that 21 year-old kids are the most logical beings.  He certainly didn’t get banned for his current videos, which were far from extreme in every sense.

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Okay, I’ll admit watching beach volleyball.  But only for the articles.

Is a 23 year-old kid getting banned from YouTube™ the end of the world?  No, but I think that’s how he was paying the bills.  But by staying within YouTube’s® rules, he had to research the other side, had to understand the alternatives, and his continued participation in YouTube©, following their rules, no doubt moderated a more youthful radical message.  Allsup will keep pushing a message out – he’s articulate and relatable, but now the message will untethered by rules.  The message will cease to be moderated.

Censorship and alienation is a great way to manufacture radicals.  Radicals are a great way to increase polarization.

It’s All About The Benjamins

Prosperity has been the real religion of the United States for at least five decades.  As commenters have noted, as long as people have rivers of Ruffles®, prodigious PEZ™ and never-ending Netflix©, people won’t join the FaceBook® “Let’s Overthrow America” page.  There have been times and places where people have risen up because of principle (think:  1776) but the biggest drivers are empty bellies.  Or being French.  They appear to have a revolution because the Internet was out for two hours last Thursday.  And don’t ever try to keep the French away from cigarettes.

As Matt Bracken pointed out, EBT cards ceasing to function will bring conflict in short order.  But that’s not the only path – financial destitution of the middle class would manage in short order as well.

The current levels of debt in the country have increased significantly since 2008, and the types of debt have changed as well.  Student loan debt and auto loan debt has now become three times larger than credit card debt.  In a downturn, when people can’t pay back for the $72,000 in student loans they took out for the B.Sc. degree in Backhair Management of Starbucks© Customers?  When the $68,340 MSRP 2019 4×4 Ram® pickup with Megacabâ„¢ and the Cummins© diesel engine gets repossessed and they can’t drive to the job they have making PowerPoints® for Uberâ„¢?  Yeah, that’s bad.  Soon enough, they can’t afford the apartment.  Then?  With bad credit there are tons of jobs they won’t ever qualify for.

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They also have a medal for having to deal with bearded hipsters who want more soy and will send a wicked text with mean emojis if it’s not PERFECT. 

As long as there is physical food, the Federal government can distribute it, EBT cards or not.  But once the middle class gets forced into destitution, and middle class mothers tell middle class fathers that they need to stock up on ammunition as well as canned soup?

People will put up with a lot as long as they have food.  People will put up with a lot as long as they have hope.  As Janis Joplin said in the second most insightful line in rock history:  “Freedom’s just another word for nothin’ left to lose.”  I guess my version of “No Netflix® is just another word for nothin’ left to lose” sounds a bit silly by comparison.

Given our current polarization, and with violence springing up regularly when times are good, I tend to think that the younger generation doesn’t see a way forward, doesn’t see prosperity as an option.  They feel that they have nothing left to lose.

Updated Civil War II Index

Economic:  +1.78 last month, +4.43 this month.  Plus is good.  Unemployment is slightly up (my proxy number, since the official number isn’t out yet) – interest rates were significantly down, and the Dow was only slightly down.  Despite my prediction that we had seen the market top three months ago, it keeps going up, and overall economic conditions keep improving.  So, yay?  We can have prosperity forever?

Political Instability:  +10% last month, -13% this month.  As we get closer to the election, I would anticipate that political instability will continue to decrease as focus goes on to the candidates and away from tearing down the systems.

Interest in Violence:  +13% this month, compared to +8% last month.  This is a smaller increase than I expected.  A related metric showed a big peak after El Paso, dropping nearly immediately.

Illegal Aliens:  Down 26% last month to 82,000.  That sounds great, but two months ago was the highest ever at 144,000.  Down is good.  For perspective, last year it was 40,000.  There is no good news in this category.

There is the possibility of graphs next month, since we’ve gotten some data over time now.  And with graphs come girls in bikinis, right?

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Who cares what’s on the graph, right?

Who Benefits, Part III?

The far Left.  Any situation that creates chaos is a benefit to the Left – it did during the French Revolution.  It did during the Russian Revolution.  The Left thrives on chaos.  In the words of The Mrs., no people has ever said, “Political repression, food lines, and random secret police raids at 3AM?  Sign me up for that!”  Leftism can show up slowly, through corrosion of society, but for Leftism to stick?  Nothing beats the chaos of a war.

Never let a crisis go to waste, right?

link

Links

This is a fairly video-heavy set of links, so make sure that your VCR is ready to go:

From Thinker:  a multi-part video documentary on the Yugoslavian breakup.  I’ve started, but not finished this one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDADy9b2IBM

From Ricky:  What have we learned about Dayton?  Oh, yeah, Satanist Antifa Sanders supporter.  (LINK) (LINK)

And also from Quora (LINK), and Forward Observer (LINK), and Prospect (LINK), and an unusually sober idea from Vox ().

From 173dVietVet:

The Hunt, a movie specifically about Leftists killing people on the Right – 173 was the first place I heard this from – and they have delayed the release of the movie, probably until November, 2020? (LINK)

From Average Joe, With Memes:

A batch about increasing violence, and how technology might be employed in novel ways for objectives.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qe4-7IgMbsg
https://www.reddit.com/r/KotakuInAction/comments/65tc12/sargons_this_week_in_stupid_16042017_with_main/
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=z0MaGON-gQg
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=50UACEQOe4E
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vw9zyxm860Q
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3aZuj_SDqDo
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O_ldHq3NzC0
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=muoR8Td44UE

From readers over at The Burning Platform:

TC adds this from John Mark – I have started listening to it.

Martel’s Hammer suggests Radio Free Redoubt (LINK).

Shinmen Takezo is the person who first suggested John Mark back at Issue 1, adds this video to the list (LINK).

https://youtu.be/HofChFv_MKc

American Civil War: Four Fates, From Freedom to Soviet Tyranny

“Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  No!” – Animal House

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On this blog recently someone commented, “When I was a kid, people used to say that ‘It’s a free country,’ but they don’t say that anymore.”  I tried it out the other day.  The response?  “It hasn’t been a free country in a while.”  I turned him into the FBI for that kind of hate think.

I was driving in the middle of Midwestia in the middle of a quest that you’ll probably hear about on Wednesday.  One of the videos that was in my suggested list was about “America’s Cold Civil War.”  This isn’t a review of the video, but it brought up some interesting points.  The one I want to make clear to every single person that loves freedom in the United States is:  if you’ve ever seen a movie about that rag-tag elements of a group fighting a foe that has nearly utterly defeated them, it’s us.  We are the Wolverines.

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I get to be Charlie Sheen, mainly because he’s still alive.  I think.

I don’t mean to say that to create a feeling of defeat – far from it.  But the first step in dealing with a situation is understanding reality.  And reality is very simple today.  At a minimum, the Left has coopted the following elements of culture in the United States – they have been, over time, “converged” into Leftism:

  • The K-12 educational system.
  • Colleges and Universities.
  • Most Protestant religious organizations.
  • Most Catholic organizations.
  • The psychological establishment.
  • The American Medical Association.
  • All mainstream news media.
  • All mainstream entertainment media.
  • Most departments of the Federal government, absent the armed services.
  • The general officer corps of the armed services.
  • The courts.
  • Silicon Valley tech companies.
  • Many (but not all) Fortune® 500™ companies.

This isn’t an accident, it’s entirely by plan.  And not only by plan, it’s by a plan that was entirely shared.  From Verified Communist Traitor® Herbert Marcuse, in his book Counterrevolution and Revolt (bold added):

To extend the base of the student movement, Rudi Dutschke has proposed the strategy of the long march through the institutions:  working against the established institutions while working within them, but not simply by ‘boring from within’, rather by ‘doing the job’, learning (how to program and read computers, how to teach at all levels of education, how to use the mass media, how to organize production, how to recognize and eschew planned obsolescence, how to design, et cetera), and at the same time preserving one’s own consciousness in working with others.

I could prove all of the above Institutions have been converged through the Long March Through the Institutions and will probably discuss a few of these in the future, because I could do a post on each one.  Heck, maybe it would be a great book, but only if I could figure out how to pair hot chicks and communist propaganda.

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East German girl swimmers bench pressing 300 pounds in 1976 is completely normal.

But if you doubt me, you have Google® (itself converged) and you can easily verify list above even through the Leftist-bias that’s now on that search engine.  I’ll leave you with one more question:  why else would Fortune© 500® corporations sign a manifesto saying profits were less important than social goals if Leftists weren’t in control?  Because there were extra doughnuts in the breakroom and they were feeling generous?

In almost any context, these organizations reflect the values of the Left, not of the Right.  I specifically don’t use the label conservative here – the conservative movement has utterly failed in the United States (to quote absolutely everyone) to conserve anything.  We live a country where adults telling four year old boys that being a girl is okie-dokie (and vice-versa) aren’t thrown directly in prison for a decade or more (after a trial, of course) for child abuse.  The goals of the above organizations would be cause for mass revolt if they had been publicized in 1990, but now, despite no vote, no public acceptance, each point of the Left has been accepted as the new normal.

And telling a boy that he’s a girl?  Oh, wait, that’s brave.  Sorry.

Despite all of that, this is not a post about giving up.  Screw that.  Each day makes me more independent, not less, more wanting to tell the truth.

And if you’re reading this, no one is done here.  Freedom is always the underdog.  I really wish we’d just stop waiting until 2:00 in the fourth quarter to start playing.

I remember seeing a film in Social Studies in High School about the Korean War.  In the black and white film, almost all of Korea had been lost.  The film ended right at what is known as the Pusan Perimeter, right where the North Korean Army was about to kick freedom off of the Korean peninsula, forever.  It was tough watching that film.

But then we learned what happened next:  MacArthur led the naval invasion of Inchon and turned the tide of battle, leading a combined United Nations® force that cut off the North Koreans.  This turned the course of the war, and in the process helped to create the free country of South Korea that is a world leader in technology, bad music videos, and wealth creation today.

korea.jpg

Spoiler alert:  we tied.

Our Pusan Perimeter is now.  I had a great boss once upon a time, he would continually remind me, “John, start with the end in mind,” which is #2 of Covey’s Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.  As I look at the state of the Right back in 2016, we were at the Pusan Perimeter.  As we as a nation blindly stumble toward Civil War II, I can’t predict the outcome, but I can see the full range of outcomes.

We’ll go from best case to worst case for people who love freedom.  Although there are variations, I think I’ve captured all of the big picture end games below.

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I named operation Aesop after the Raconteur Report’s Aesop.  You can read him here (LINK).

Operation Aesop:  Total victory.

What it is:  The Right wins.  Traditional society is restored.  Mothers and fathers in committed relationships are again honored.  A Constitutional republic of limited government replaces the democracy of unlimited power.  The United States is unified.  Think of it as a return to the 1950’s, but with color TV and microwaves.

What it takes:  Oh, not much more than the bloodiest war in the history of the country.  The only way this results in victory is as Von Clausewitz wrote about in On War:   [Accomplishing . . . ] “three broad objectives, which between them cover everything:  destroying the enemy’s armed forces; occupying his country; and breaking his will to continue the struggle.”

That’s what happened in the first Civil War.  That’s what happened to the Germans and Japanese in World War II.  The concept of continuing was even more horrific than the concept of trying to continue to fight.  It’s total capitulation.  This is actual war until the enemy is not capable of continuing.  Not talking heads on a television show.  Not voting.  Not discussion.  Not a “mission accomplished” after five weeks moving across Iraq where the “will to continue the struggle” is still clearly intact.

Outcomes:  Some freedoms we see now would be curtailed.  Political discourse would be constrained.  But teenagers would be pretty polite, again.  And you wouldn’t really have to worry about the border.

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I’m related to Patrick Henry, or so my aunt told me.  I like to imagine Patrick getting a bit tipsy and writing mean letters to Madison about how short Madison was and how Dolly might want to give up on the chew.

Operation Founding Fathers:  50 Independent States. 

What it is:  A return to base principles.  Originally, the United States was conceived as just that, independent free States.  The majority of decisions to be made were to be made at the state, and not the Federal level.  Each state was to be free to make decisions.  Texas could be Texas.  California could be Venezuela.  Vermont could be stoned.  The free decisions of free States was allowed.  The free movement of free peoples was likewise allowed.  This is returning to that state.

What it takes:  Leftist thought is built around the universal adoption of their principles.  Individuals in society cannot be left to make decisions, so this is a hateful outcome to the Left.  I recall discussing politics with a Leftist when I was younger.  The Leftist thought I was on the Right.  That, at least they could deal with.  When I identified as a Libertarian®?  The look of disgust was clear – the Left hated Libertarians™ more than they hated the Right.  The Right was merely amused and not threatened by Libertarians©.  Maybe it was the Star Wars® shirts and poorly trimmed beards?

That taught me one thing:  the thing the Left hates the most is  . . . freedom.  Liberty.  In many ways the Left would rather lose a shooting war and be subjugated to the views of the Right than to be allowed to turn Seattle into the Siberia of the PacNorthwest.

The only way this can take place outside of warfare is a Second Constitutional Convention.  I think that alone would lead to a shooting war from the Left and a complete revolt from all of the Leftist institutions shown above.  But we can dream that the Second Constitutional Convention would turn out well.  If we did it, oh, in the next year.  The clock is ticking on this being a viable outcome.  It’s probably time to do it now.  As in, well, now.  Conservatives (not the Right) seem to feel that everything is going to come out fine, so until the wolf is at the door, I don’t think they’ll move an inch.

The problem is that Conservatives (again, not the Right) seem to think that the Left likes the Constitution.  Since the Left gained the institutions I’ve listed above, the Left doesn’t care about the Constitution – the Left cares about power.  Pure, unadulterated, 18 year old with a 12 pack of Coors Light™ behind the wheel of a 1969 Camero® power.

Outcomes:  In many ways this is the best outcome, but in my opinion the most unlikely.  This is the only outcome where we can still have the full freedom of political discourse and the full Bill of Rights.  I’d love to turn over freedom to choose to a California that can choke itself to death on Leftist feelgoodism while a Rightist Arizona can deny admission to every illegal and return them via a trebuchet if they want to.

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I was expecting more girls in bikinis from Bruckheimer, but this is a good start.

Operation Fort Sumter:  Going our separate ways.

What it is:  Secession.  Splitting up.  It’s not you, it’s me Oregon.  The problem is that unlike in 1860, the dividing lines aren’t so clear.  Then there was a line which, if everyone agreed, would have been fine for a split.  The North could be the North, the South could be the South.  Oops.  Now it would be a county by county fight.

What it takes:  Just like a psycho ex-girlfriend, if the Right tried to succeed in Texas, the Left wouldn’t accept it, and would demand tanks on the banks Red River by morning, which would be hilarious because tanks don’t float.  Unless the secession were overwhelming in number of states, numbers of the armed forces, and nearly immediate, I see only a small path to a peaceful secession.  For secession to stick, the Left and Right would have to feel that conquering the other side was more costly than trying to forge a peace.

Outcomes:  If secession happened and was maintained, the United States would be irrevocably broken, unless it was re-stitched by a Caesar sequentially conquering the Balkanized United States.  Maybe Caesar Pugsley Wilder the First?

gulag.jpg

Think they need a reason to send you to the Gulag?  Sure they do!  It’s Monday – that’s good enough.

Operation Gulag in The Dakotas:

What it is:  This is the darkest timeline not only for our nation but for our world.  And, amazingly, the only timeline (outside of a Second Constitutional Convention) that we can vote ourselves into.  It is the Leftist takeover of everything.  Although it is sold as a Denmark, in reality Denmark is capitalist with stronger social institutions because Denmark is, well, Danish and I think they put mayo on their fries.  In the United States it will look much more like the U.S.S.R. – but not the basketcase 1988 U.S.S.R., but more like the 1932 “starve to death millions of citizens that Stalin doesn’t like” (In the World Murder Olympics, Communists Take Gold and Silver!) U.S.S.R.

What it takes:  Nothing.  We keep going as it is.  In less than 20 years, we will be in complete tyranny.  The erosion of rights we have seen won’t continue in a linear fashion.  It will accelerate.

Outcomes:  1984.

Now we know the stakes.

orwell.jpg

Big Brother is our friend!  And we’ve always been at war with Eastasia.

Book Review: Civil War Two, Part II

“Without law, Commander, there is no civilization.” – Bridge on the River Kwai

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You’d be surprised at the number of Civil War battles that were fought on National Parks.

We’re at part II of the review of Thomas W. Chittum’s book, Civil War Two:  The Coming Breakup of America.  You can find part I here (Book Review: Civil War Two, Part I).

I’m happy to report that I was wrong – you can buy Civil War Two:  The Coming Breakup of America on Amazon© on their Kindle® store.  Doing a normal search will take you only to the used hard copies, and those hard copies are still only available from resellers.

I encourage you to buy a copy of the Kindle® edition if you’ve downloaded the book on .pdf.  I bought one – because it puts money in the author’s pocket.  I’ve left a link below, and, as usual, I don’t make a dime if you buy anything linked here.  I’ve been thinking about it, but not right now.  Anyway, buy it.  As of this writing it’s only three bucks.  It’s a bargain at that price, so, pony up.

How did I find out that Mr. Chittum’s book was still available on Amazon?  Mr. Chittum emailed me and told me so.  I’m glad, and I’ve already revised my previous post, as well.

Last week we left off at the end of Phase I, the Foundational phase.  This week, we start off at Phase II – The Terrorist Phase.  Chittum felt that this phase would last between five and twenty years.  It’s been over twenty since it was written.  What did Chittum predict?

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And we can prevent Civil War II if we just hold hands, because then no one will have hands to hold guns.

  1. More of Phase I.
  2. More riots, driven by ethnic conflict, some of multiple day duration, involving barricades and heavy weapons. This is spot on from Ferguson to Baltimore and beyond, with the exception of heavy weapons, which to my knowledge have not been employed.
  3. Ethnic militias, cults, gangs. I’ve certainly seen the gangs, but if “militias” and cults have been increasing, I’ve missed them.
  4. Increasing talk of secession and civil war. I read once that couples that use the word “divorce” are more likely to have one, so I’ve forbidden the use inside the house.  People talk about what they want, and these terms on the tips of tongues from Ticonderoga to Tallahassee to Tacoma to Toluca Lake.  Oh, yeah.
  5. Increasing bombing and sabotage against the government. This is another item that seems to be missing – people are mad at each other, not at the government.
  6. Increasing small group attacks.
  7. Small scale ethnic cleansing. I’ve read multiple articles about displacement of one ethnic group by another.  The one that comes immediately to mind are blacks being driven out of traditionally black areas in Los Angeles by Hispanics.
  8. Demographic and political Reconquista of the Southwest. In progress, as I keep hearing that schools find the American flag . . . racist?
  9. Food riots as government attempts to shut of welfare.   Welfare is in full swing.
  10. Racial factions and politicizing of the military. I have no idea if the military is racially fragmenting.  I’m willing to bet this will light up the comment section.  But the officer corps seems to be broadly moving left, based on the rumors I’ve heard about elimination of upper ranks due to political reasons.   West Point appears to be corrupted to the point a communist graduated.  Although they kicked him out, it would appear that Congress has a place waiting for him.
  11. Splitting American institutions based on ethnic or political lines. In progress.  When a the FBI® has groups attempting to overthrow the government, and the Boy Scouts™ are admitting girls, the institutions of the country are splitting apart.  A little.
  12. Abandonment of certain city areas by the police.
  13. Gangs will have political goals and militarize. Outside of the cartels, if this is happening, it’s not happening publically.
  14. White people begin to wonder if the establishment is working for them. The white vote appears to be polarizing, although I personally doubt we’ll ever see the 90/10 split seen in many minority voting blocs.
  15. An armored car will be destroyed. A child is shown in the media foraging for food in a dump.  Neither of these have come true, to my knowledge, but photos of the homeless camps in California are common.

Phase II is where we are now – but it keeps getting worse, seemingly on a monthly basis.

The next phase Chittum outlines is Phase III:  Guerrilla Warfare.  By inspection, we’re not there.  The skirmishes that Antifa© provokes aren’t it – imagine if Antifa™ has weapons and secures an area, killing people in the process – that’s the level of violence expected.  This is actual warfare, but limited in time and location.  Areas will be lost to the guerrillas.  Chittum expects this to be shorter than the current phase, and this lower-scale warfare will last ten to twenty years.

The final phase is Phase IV:  All-Out, Continuous Warfare.  It’s just as on the label – actual armies moving in the field.  This is civil war – and the outcome cannot be predicted, especially if it takes place ten or twenty years from today.  Massive forces will be unleased, like never before in the country, and (this is me, not Chittum) we won’t have the structure that provided cohesion after the first Civil War.

Chittum spends some time analyzing the United States and safer places to be, but this is tied back to 1997 demographics and I don’t live in the places he talks about, so, those are interesting primarily due to his analytical methods and I’d suggest you give that a read to see how your mileage may vary.  I’d suggest spending time doing your own research on what you feel is a “safe” location.  Although finding a safe location might be hard, it’s probably easy to find places that won’t be safe, so you could probably start just by avoiding places that you know will turn into a post-apocalyptic hell-hole in five minutes if the microwave at the 7-11® breaks.

It’s easy to predict places where you’re not safe – you know, the places with bars over the windows and the local priest carries an AR.  Think those neighborhoods will be better after the world caves in?  Well, I’m pretty sure real estate prices will be down, but that’s primarily due to the wailing coming from the direct pit to hell that will open up after things get bad.

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Birthday at Casa Wilder is always exciting!

But how do they go from normal to “pit to hell”, anyway?  One particular line from Chittum in a later chapter breaking down stability by using Europe as a model had this sentence in it:  “With each and every passing day, more and more Americans of all ethnic groups are perceiving their tribal affiliation as more self-definitive and more important that their common American nationality.”

This is the key to the unravelling we’re seeing in the country right now.  The United States transformed from a nation that had little diversity (in 1960, the country was 85% non-Hispanic white) to today, where the country is 60% non-Hispanic white.  In 1960, by and large the identity of all the citizens in the country was:  American.  Americans were of all ethnicities.  Were there groups that were excluded?  Certainly – Martin Luther King, Jr. and the Civil Rights movement gained popularity by pointing out unfairness in treatment of blacks in America.  And America responded – we wanted to believe that being an American could transcend racial differences that seem to rip apart countries across the world.  We did our best.

Problem fixed, right?

No.  Not as long as each ethnic group defines itself through identity.

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Also, the Egyptians should have seen that pyramid scheme from the start.

Chittum hints at the possibility that complete Imperial Conversion might be one way to avoid Civil War, and lists several requirements to complete the transformation of the United States from it’s former form to an Empire.  In the end, Chittum feels that Civil War at least provides hope, whereas Empire doesn’t.  Chittum even provides (23 years ago) a direct time and place where the Civil War will start – 5/5/2020, in a city park in Los Angeles.  For reasons that I’ll get into below, I think this is a little soon.

Chittum’s advice on preparation is pretty common in the prepper world, at least in 2019.  Locations near borders along ethnic faultlines are out.  Locations that have logistical dependencies (think water) on other locations . . . out.  Military bases?  Out.  Large cities?  Out.  Near the border of the “new nations”?  Out.

Also, have some food and don’t tell other people that you have food.  At least enough for your family for a year.  Also, a gun and at least 5,000 rounds of ammo.  Chittum speaks about gun caliber in general, but I’ve seen the fights that gun caliber selection sets off in the comments section, so I’ll leave that for later when I want to make sure you’re reading.  He suggests caching your food and ammo and gun away from the house, and, although I understand his reasons, it’s not something I do, at least currently.  As I get older, it’s even less likely.  If I make it to a retirement home, I’ll probably hide bullets in my walker.

Finally, Mr. Chittum has a checklist (in no particular order) of things that will be there before Civil War II hits.  I’ve put the ones I think have already occurred in bold:

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Always remember item 6 – “Wear Pants”

  1. Ethnic classifications become more prominent.
  2. Illegal aliens allowed to vote, even locally.
  3. Attack on the Second Amendment.
  4. Juries that split on racial lines – shows that justice isn’t justice anymore.
  5. Military taking police duties.
  6. Internal (for use in the United States) elite military force.
  7. Mobs in Washington D.C.
  8. Blacks demanding facilities without whites (dorms, etc.).
  9. Replacement of individual rights with group rights – health care, for instance.
  10. Non-governmental organizations acquiring military power.
  11. Real political power shifting to the courts.
  12. Political power shifting to international bodies.
  13. Leftists and minority control spreads of basic institutions.
  14. Secessionist movements and groups seeking autonomy.
  15. Race-based political parties.
  16. No-go areas left to gangs.
  17. Reparations.
  18. Court voting manipulation (against gerrymandering).
  19. Unrest in other multiethnic empires in the world at the time.
  20. “Gated” communities for the wealthy.
  21. Increased media hoaxes.
  22. Increased minorities in the military.
  23. Out of court settlements in cases of racial discrimination (method to transfer money to radical groups).
  24. More restrictions on freedom of speech, including getting speakers fired or SWATed.
  25. Police abandon traditional uniforms for military-style uniforms.
  26. Groups of cops that form to oppose unconstitutional actions. Chittum thought they would be clandestine and ethnic, but the Oath Keepers are neither.
  27. An affirmative action agency (EEOC for instance) to have armed agents.
  28. Dollar collapse.
  29. Geographic segregation and mention of it in the press.
  30. Signs American military dominance challenged in a serious way.
  31. Breakup of Canada.
  32. More Americans moving to Canada than vice versa.
  33. Parallel ethnic political and legal organizations have more power than base organizations.
  34. More help wanted ads requiring bilingual applicants.
  35. Greater role for UN in the world.
  36. Photo of burned out American tank on US soil.

So, of this list, by my count about 18 (your mileage may vary) of Chittum’s 36 item checklist have happened.  Some of the above are more important than others.

As noted, I recommend the book.  It’s good, and not everything is covered in the 4,000-odd words that are in this review.  It’s also a pretty quick read with decent flow.

How has the prediction held out?  Certainly, better than any prediction that I did in 1997.  I think the biggest missing piece is Leftist ideology.  The Leftists have done a really good job of keeping together a rickety coalition of communists, Islamists, racial agitators, and ideologists without ideas.  This has led to increased stability that would have been hard for Mr. Chittum to foresee from 1997.

Additionally, the work on prepping has moved on in twenty years.  The basics remain the same, but the general philosophy has had 20 years of thought, refinement, and improvement.  But we haven’t had 20 years of thought on what will cause a civil war and how likely that is.

But, oddly, the Leftist coalition is keeping the country from splitting into dozens of pieces – right now it’s just two pieces.  I think this increased stability has extended the time until Civil War II breaks out.  What brings stability down?  Economic hardship.  The 2020 election.

And there is a price to be paid.  Can the Left control the forces of discontent and hate that it has unleased?  Can the Right control the forces that are a reaction to the demographic change in society?

Tough questions.  (Shakes Magic 8 Ball®)

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MAGIC 8 BALL

Book Review: Civil War Two, Part I

“I’ll give you a winter prediction:  it’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life.” – Groundhog Day

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There was a dwarf fortune teller that was wanted by police.  The news headline was “Small medium at large.”

One of the comments on the very first issue of the Civil War Two Weather Report (You can find all three Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming, Civil War Weather Report #2, Censorship, Stalin, and a Bunch of Links, Civil War Weather Report #3: Violence, China, and Lots of Links) was a link to Thomas W. Chittum’s 1997 book Civil War Two:  The Coming Breakup of AmericaIt is available as a .pdf here.  Ordinarily I’d point you towards Amazon® so you could buy the book and put money in the author’s pocket, but it looks like the book has been out of print for some time.

Update:  it’s here, Mr. Chittum pointed me in this direction.  Please give this one a purchase – it’s good for Mr. Chittum, and I promise I don’t make a dime off of it.

Chittum had an interesting past before writing this book – he fought in Vietnam for the United States.  Apparently that wasn’t enough and the United States was all peaceful for the next twenty years, so he fought in Rhodesia and Croatia as a mercenary rifleman.  Oh, and he was a computer programmer for most of his life.

The book is now 22 years old, and it makes predictions.  How did it do?  I won’t spoil the plot too much, but Chittum has probably been better at predicting 2019 while writing about it in 1996 than a lot of people have done living in 2016 and predicting 2019.  It was pretty chilling to me to read how much Chittum had gotten right, so I thought I’d review the book.

As the notecards I use for blocking out posts went to three times the number I use for a typical post, I realized that the review would be take (at least) two posts, if not three.  So, here’s part one.  You’ll see part two next Monday.

Early on, Chittum notes that the United States has moved from the status of a nation to that of an empire.  Some might date the beginning of empire to the end of the first Civil War, but I’d say that the United States was, more or less, a single nation up until the 1970’s.  Sure there were regional differences, but the idea of kneeling when the national anthem was played wouldn’t have occurred to anyone but revolutionary Leftists.

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Make the Empire Great Again™!

The United States had a homogeneous culture for 90% plus of citizens in the 1970’s.  The dreams of the civic nationalist were realized in that era that resulted from very low immigration:  all that matters was that people were committed to being the idea of integrating and assimilating into being an American, and it would work out fine.  As long as we were one group that could sit and watch Cheers® or M*A*S*H™ or baseball, and cheer for our favorite teams, we’d be fine.

In the civic nationalist world it didn’t matter that your great-grandparents were Italian immigrants in 1900.  Your grandpa might have been named Enzio, but he went by Ernie and married an Irish gal named Mary.  Your dad played baseball.  Your name is Robert and your sister’s name is Nancy and the only thing really Italian about you is you like pizza.

I’d guess I’d use the participation in youth soccer as a proxy for demographic change.  We all know that soccer was originally invented in Europe so the Germans would have something to do besides invade France and conquer it in an afternoon.  It’s not a traditional game that Americans play.  Oh, sure, the United States women won the World Cup®.  But to be fair, we needed something for our women to do so they didn’t invade France, either.

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Let’s face it, our choice is either World Cup® soccer, or panzers streaking through Paris.  Is it just me, or do the panzers sound more interesting?

But Chittum points out that stability comes from a single group identity.  People being all on the same team makes us stronger, where as many groups make us weaker.  In this light, diversity isn’t Our Greatest Strength™, it’s really a weakness.

And his point is clear – ask a Leftist what it means to be an American, and you’ll likely get a vague statement about all you have to do to be an American is want to be one.  Asking them to learn English and assimilate and fit into American culture is for some reason now considered racist.  From the vantage point of 2019, it’s clear, diversity is our greatest weakness if we want a safe and stable nation.

This is observable in the real world.  Chittum fought in the breakup of the Balkans, and witnessed the breakdown of the Soviet Union.  When the Soviet Union fell, Chittum notes it was about 50% ethnic Russian.  The resulting nation that emerged was about 80% ethnic Russian and is much more stable.  It’s certainly more Russian.

The trends of a nation in peril are observable.  Our police departments don’t look like policemen, they’re now military.  Remember, to a cop, the citizens look like citizens.  To the military, everyone is a potential enemy.

  • SWAT teams raided Amish farms because they were selling unpasteurized milk.
  • Cops get armored personnel carriers like they’re patrolling Syria and not San Francisco.
  • Even local cops in Modern Mayberry wear gloves with hard plastic knuckles during normal patrols.

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When she pulled me over I rolled down the window and said, “What’s wrong?”  Her response?  “Nothing.”

Chittum spends a lot of time on the American Southwest – he figures it will be the trigger to the Civil War.

The original Reconquista took place in Spain as the Spanish expelled the Muslims who had conquered it over the course of six hundred years.  It was slow, but it finished up in 1492.  In the same way, Chittum notes that, although Mexico is a failed state, Mexicans are “retaking” the Southwest in a modern Reconquista that has taken place over decades since 1965, but with 1000% less Muslims.

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Nothing says practical like that hat!

Likewise, Chittum writes that the only solution is to close the border.  Of course he was writing this in 1997 so 22 years have passed.  Right now, at least 40% of the population of Los Angeles is foreign born.  In no way could Los Angeles be considered to be an American city today.  It might even be considered Mexican, as rival Mexican gangs have recently infiltrated the LA County Sheriff’s office (LINK).

Who loves this?  Leftists who wish to topple the United States:  Leftists need the votes.  Ethnic groups like La Raza:  La Raza is the intellectual part of the movement that actively wishes to retake the Southwest.  Multinational corporations:  they like the lower wages.

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Worst, though, are the hipster cops who will only arrest you ironically.

Let’s be clear:  Mexicans are patriots about Mexico.  They love their country – that’s why they proudly carry their flag during protests. Even in 1997, Chittum noted that crime was rampant in Mexico and the border was a mess and it’s even worse in Latin America south of Mexico.  Who can blame them for wanting to come to the United States, especially when some groups spin a fable of an ethnic empire, Aztlan, which is theirs for the taking?

The South and Northeast aren’t much better, and Chittum mentions that the Northeast will experience massive, open violence, which will be unorganized, and savage.  Some of the urban areas might survive as city-states.

California is his odds-on favorite to be ground zero.  Street gangs, as mentioned above, are numerous and founded on ethnicity.  They’ve infiltrated public organizations and the police and even allegedly corrupted members of the Marine Corps (LINK).  It’s this particular “enemy inside” that is troubling.  An external enemy is that can be fought, but when the enemy of the country becomes an internal enemy, it’s much worse – there’s a reason that treason is mentioned in the Constitution.

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Ahh, California, the meth laboratory of democracy.

Chittum mentions militias.  They seemed to have their peak in the 1990’s, and quickly declined after Oklahoma City.  He also mentions “Committees of Correspondence” which were a mechanism for people to communicate with each other because they didn’t have the Internet in the 1760’s to begin to organize against the British, LOL.  The Internet serves this purpose now, with large groups getting information from unapproved sources, and even managing to “privately*” share information.

*Don’t bet your life or liberty on it.

Chittum writes that Civil War Two will be vicious, atrocity filled, and genocidal.  Civilian casualties are to be expected, and many will be on purpose.  Looting will be common.  This is not the usual scenario our military faces in any fashion, so the analyses performed by John Mark (see Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming) or Forward Observer (Civil War Weather Report #3: Violence, China, and Lots of Links) aren’t valid.  Civil War Two has the potential to be far worse than any conflict seen in history, as it combines both ethnic division along with ideological division – it’s like the Russian Revolution times Rwanda to the power of Somalia.

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I’ve been stuck in the same phase for . . . oh . . . twenty years now.  Maybe one day I’ll grow out of being a 12 year old.  I’m not telling you how long it took me to get to that phase!

There are four phases according to Chittum.  The first phase of the problem is what he refers to as Foundational.  He said in 1997 the Foundational phase was already complete.

  1. Tribalization of society – have different rules for different ethnic groups, push people to identify as something other than “American.”
  2. Power shift to unelected administrators, judges, board, commissions, and public servants.
  3. Since 1972, wages been stagnant, or, when compared to medical care or education, dramatically falling.
  4. The core of many large cities has been abandoned – think Baltimore or Detroit.
  5. Massive and sustained immigration, falling of standards and conditions in some locations to those similar to undeveloped countries.
  6. Racial organizations in police – militarization of police, which are both covered above.
  7. Treaties are more important that state sovereignty.
  8. A consistent and strong drive for gun control.
  9. From Antifa© to MS-13 to the Crips, these are in place.
  10. Mass media participation in the polarization. The mass media has already picked a side – Left.

We can see what Chittum says is behind us.  Next Monday we’ll look (from his vantage point in 1997 and ours in 2019) to see what else he’s predicted, and how far along we are.

Sweet dreams!