Category: Silly Predictions

Investing The Oligarch Way

“Even for billionaire playboys, three o’clock is pushing it. The price of leading a double life, I fear.” – Batman Begins

I tried to find a good joke about carpentry, but nothing wood work.

Most of my life I’ve lived in places that were sparsely populated.  On Wilder Mountain during the school year, the nearest kid between the ages of 5 and 16 was about 8 miles away.  Ma Wilder would tie a pork chop around my neck so the dog would play with me.

I kid.  The solitude was nice.  I hiked by myself.  Some people “summered” there, meaning they had enough money to turn a season into a verb.  That was nice because that meant the same kid would show up year after year and we would go fishing or biking.

Right now, I have probably a hundred neighbors within a two-mile drive.

By many standards, that’s sparse, too.  For me, it’s just on the edge of “crowded” but since my daily commute consists of one stoplight that’s generally green, I can make it work.

You want scary?  North Korea has a missile that can hit New York City.  If it can make it there, it can make it anywhere.

The trend, though, isn’t small towns like Modern Mayberry.  The trend is amazingly large and increasingly dehumanized cities.  I was watching the zombie movie set in South Korea, Last Train to Busan, with Pugsley last year.  It was really Seoul-crushing.  I decided to use the Internet to find pictures of what South Korea looks like when zombies aren’t chasing mass transit.

I was shocked by the density.  It turns out that South Korea has an average population density of 1,326 people per square mile, which is even more zombies per square mile than that German zombie movie, Shambler’s List.

Sure, you say, South Korea is only half of the population density of the city of Houston.  But that’s the urban part, and not including the ‘burbs.  The country of South Korea is, on average, nearly twice as dense as heavily populated suburbs.  On average.  That includes forests and rice paddies and zombie storage lots, er, cemeteries.

Despite the obvious inferiority for personal defense when the Moderna©-Pfizer™ Vaxombies inevitably show up (That means it’s working), cities continue to draw people to them.  The biggest reason, I suppose, is jobs.

Ever think that the evil aliens from They Live were a lot nicer than the human leaders we have today?

Having never grown up in that density, when I lived in a Houston ‘burb that had a population density of around 800 people per square mile.  I always felt lost and anonymous in that number of people.  With the flow of traffic, a five-mile jaunt to the supermarket could take 15 minutes or more.

Why did I do it?  My job.

Before writing this, I wasn’t sure how long this could go on.  A quick DuckDuckGo® search quickly told me the answer – Houston.  Certainly farther than Houston density:  one slum in Mumbai has a population density of 720,000 to 870,000 people per square mile depending on the source you choose to believe.  That’s a square (roughly) of six feet by six feet for each person, which includes streets.

36,300 people would be mashed into my five-acre lot.  I hope the ones that get assigned a space in the lake can tread water.  At heart, I’d prefer an Italian slum to an Indian one – I think I’d do okay in a spaghetto.

In other news, I now count as a family of three.

I’m pretty sure that mankind wasn’t designed in any way to live in conditions like that.  One article (which attempted to make the slum sound a lot less like a war crime) still mentioned the smell.  I guess in India none of the houses had base-mints.

Again, a slum in India isn’t a how-to manual for human habitation on Earth, but that’s a major trend in the United States today.  When I joke that they want you to live in the pod and eat the bugs, keep in mind that’s more than a joke to the powers that be.

See, I’m not kidding.

The solution, of course, is to own actual land.  Bill Gates and the other members of the Oligarch Class certainly have figured that out as well.  Bill recently bought 242,000 acres – enough to hold nearly 1.8 billion people by Mumbai-slum levels of packing ‘em in.

Although Mr. Gates is recently become exposed as über-creepy, no one accuses him of being stupid, except for the time when Melinda Gates told him, “Bill, this marriage isn’t working.”  Bill responded, “Well, let’s get divorced, remarry, and see if that doesn’t clear up the problems.”

The land rush is on.  Generally, these booms are followed by busts.  But when one of the things that is likely going to go bust is the currency itself, well, a small fluctuation in land prices doesn’t seem to matter much.  It must be a good deal, too.  Nearly half the land in Scotland is owned by just 432 people.  That might be why people are unhappy there – I hear even their flag is cross.

They want you to have a Land Rover® and a landlord.

Over time, the Oligarch Class has managed to create a pretty good way to hang on to wealth for generation after generation:  massive tracts of land, art, and precious things.  The Oligarch Class isn’t stupid – they keep the land and art in trusts so it moves from generation to generation seamlessly.  They never own it, but they control it.  I imagine that it would be even to imagine some of the assets tied up in trusts by the Oligarch Class.

Art?  If you have art in your family for 100 years, well, it’s bound to be worth something.  If you have it, you can sell a Picasso when revenues are down, and buy a Monet or a Manet when revenues are up.  And jewels and gold are great ways to move lots of assets in a small package.

The nice thing about being in the Oligarch Class means that no one ever gets to tell you to live in the pod and eat the bugs.  Heck, they’ve already got every need covered.  I thought about trying to set up a charity for the Oligarch class after the last land bust, but then I realized they already had one:  the United States Treasury.

Is it possible to generate this type of wealth?  Sure, some people have done it.  It’s not easy, and something tells me that behind most amazingly large fortunes are amazingly large crimes.  But after a few centuries?  Most people just forget about the crimes as you marry your kids off with other members of the Oligarch Class after they meet at Harvard™.

Getting in with the Oligarch Class is tough – entry level isn’t measured just in billions, it’s also measured in years.  Newly minted guys with just a billion or so need not apply.  They have to have standards to keep the little people out.

I’m not a hermit, at least I’ve never heard anyone call me that.

For now, at least, I live in a part of the country where I have instant and unfettered access to hundreds of acres of land to hunt on, shoot on, or just visit.  It may not be Wilder Mountain, but it’s much closer to that than Houston was for us.

Now, did I leave that Picasso in my other chalet?

Welcome To The Unravelling

“All we can do, Scully, is pull the thread. See what it unravels.” – The X-Files

I imagine the guy who decided to use Velcro™ on shoes said, “Why knot?”

Well, that struck a nerve.

I’m never sure when I hit “post” how what I’ve written will be taken.  Some of the things I’ve written that I’ve felt were really good don’t have much of an impact.  I’m not complaining – when I’ve finished writing a post it feels like my soul is a bit lighter – like I’ve accomplished something more than turn oxygen into carbon dioxide for the day.

One clue that a post will be popular is when the post appears to write itself.  That was the case with my last post.  When I finished, I was in bed two hours earlier than normal.  I normally go to sleep when the cows wander back into the field, because that’s pasture bedtime.

The reason, I think, that post was so popular is because I just had the good fortune to write what many other people were thinking.

This is because we’re unravelling.  We just don’t have words for it.  It’s not just as a nation, it appears to be all of Western Civilization.

What the media would have people believe is that there is a great, monolithic consensus.  Prior to the Internet, that might have been achievable.  There was only One Acceptable Opinion, and it was presented to you live, in living color on three networks.  The local paper (generally) also had some version or other of the One Acceptable Opinion.

Elvis Presley’s last big hit?  The bathroom floor.

That meant that stories could disappear from the public view fairly easily.  Ruby Ridge?  I heard of that story on a local talk radio station.  The person who was telling the story, honestly, sounded crazy.  Here they were talking about this crazy story of a man being framed and then Federal agents killing his family.

The guy really did sound crazy.  Here he was, telling a story that I hadn’t heard of.

Crazy.  It sounded like a conspiracy theory.

The government used to be considered a trustworthy source by, well, everyone.  Looking back, I’m pretty certain the government never did tell us the Truth.  But the important thing was everyone believed the One Acceptable Opinion.

After her boyfriend went missing in the forest, what conspiracy did Barbie® believe in?  Kentrails.

Oh, sure, there were failures now and then.  When Tail Gunner Joe pointed out, rightly, that the State Department and Hollywood® were filled with commies, people were upset.

Leftism was generally viewed as bad.  It was so obvious that Stalin was a bad guy that even the New York Times® couldn’t hide it, as they had swept the human cost of the Holodomor (In The World Murder Olympics, Communists Take Gold And Silver Medals) under the rug two decades earlier.

In the World Murder Olympics, Communists Take Gold and Silver!

The way the Left did that is they went to their normal playbook.  How do you trump logic and facts?  A plain appeal to emotion:

“Have you no sense of decency, Sir, at long last?” was how they went after Senator Joe McCarthy.  They tried to make his dogged pursuit of Leftism appear to be an unhinged attack against ghosts.

But McCarthy was . . . right.  After the fall of the Soviet Union, it was shown that Joe was right about the scope and scale of Soviet infiltration.  Where?  Everywhere Joe had said.  McCarthyism was just what you and I would call, “Telling the truth.”

Again, McCarthy was right.  Leftism had infiltrated the Federal government.  Stalin had better progress reports on the atomic bomb than those that were given to Truman.  There’s a reason we celebrate Juneteenth around my house.

Why did Julius and Ethel Rosenberg cross the road?  Because they were never on your side.  (meme: not original)

Leftism has burrowed inside of our country.  For decades.  When Reagan was shot we couldn’t watch it on TV.  There were no televisions in our classrooms.  But some teachers had radios and instead of listening to a lecture on social studies, we sat and listened to the news on a tinny AM radio.

Would President Reagan live?  No one knew.  All we knew was that he was in the hospital.

One kid, whose parents were Leftist professors at the local college, said, simply, “I hope he dies.  Maybe then the Senate will choose Ted Kennedy as Vice President.”

The split we see now isn’t new.  It’s been festering in our country for decades.

I could come up with example after example.  But if I were to try to create a scenario where people would be on each other like Karens on a manager, I couldn’t create a better scenario than what I see today:

  • Multiple cultures forced together in small spaces.
  • Actual propaganda presented as nightly news.
  • Dogs and cats, living together.
  • An Internet where people can check facts for themselves.
  • A demonization of the Culture that created the place.

My fat parrot just died after a long illness.  It’s a huge weight off my shoulder.

I actively don’t believe anything I hear anymore.  For months, Google®, Facebook™ and Twitter© would ban anyone who said that the ‘Rona came from a lab in China.

Ban.

Now, that’s the current One Acceptable Opinion.  The previous version has been tossed by a Winston Smith-type person into the memory hole.  But we remember.

And now we know that the entire “conspiracy theory” smear tactic was created, explicitly, so people wouldn’t ask questions.  Wonder what really happened to JFK?  Dunno.  There are still nearly 500,000 pages yet to be released.

Not words.  Pages.

I guess everyone knows how Kennedy died.  That one is a no-brainer. 

But does that really matter?  Kennedy is dead.  What really matters is that the Feds created the entire idea of mocking people who believed in anything other than the One Acceptable Opinion.  Think the COVID-19 mRNA treatment is as sketchy as sharing a needle with Johnny Depp?

You’re a conspiracy theorist.  You must not believe in sCiEncE!  There is One Acceptable Theory.  Anyone who disagrees is stupid or evil.

But now in 2021, we have the Internet.  In 1982, or in 1952 this might have worked.  The sheep would go back to grazing.

Now?

It’s just more energy to help the country unravel as the One Acceptable Theory is just like the famed Emperor Who Had No Clothes.

Is there anything left to unravel?

The 1819 Project: Restoring America

“Restoration may be possible, in two days. By the book, Admiral.” – Star Trek II:  The Wrath of Khan

We can finally predict the platform that George Bush’s kids will run on.

The United States is in a bad place.  Monetarily.  Philosophically.  Morally.  It even has bad manners.

Ultimately, the systems that led us to this situation won’t lead us out.   Voting won’t save us.  The Supreme Court won’t save us.  Conservatism?

Conservatism© certainly won’t save us.  It certainly didn’t save itself, and it becomes increasingly quaint as Conservatism 2021® quietly ignores nearly every position of Conservatism 1965™, if not right out taking the exact opposite position from even a decade ago.

Conservatism® has led us to where we are today.  It’s just last year’s Leftist platform, but dressed up in a suit with a useful idiot explaining the Conservative Case for Sex Change Surgery for Toddlers.  Oh, and this should be done even if the parents disagree.  For the good of the child, you know, which they will all nod and agree, is a Conservative™ value.

Imagine if we called the Left intolerant!  That would show them!

The reason for this is the Conservatism™ is inherently a negative philosophy.  It doesn’t stand for anything, merely against (mainly) Leftist ideas.  Once those Leftist ideas gain a mainstream following?  They become a part of Conservatism®, and Conservative™ shills pretend those ideas were always part of their philosophy.

Conservatives® were always in favor of sending troops to Uganda to secure the rights of Ugandans to have gay marriage.

But Conservatism™ in 2021 is now as dead as whatever it is that lives on top of Sean Hannity’s head.  There is zero actual Conservative™ philosophy, merely a money and influence game where politicians sell their influence to the largest corporation for thirty pieces of bacon-wrapped shrimp monthly.

So conservative!

All is not lost.  Look at, for instance, gun rights.  Gun rights were presented not as, “what the Left wants, but more slowly” but instead as, “from our cold, dead hands.”  It was that level of determination that led to the “assault weapon” ban lapsing.  What started with a concealed carry movement has now led to Constitutional carry (i.e., concealed carry without a permit) in state after state.

In the year 2000, one state had Constitutional carry.  In 2021 (by my count) the number is over 21.  And gun rights is where the Right has had a similar victory recently.  In Missouri, the governor signed into law a bill that bars the police from enforcing Federal gun laws.

All of them.

Of course, the Leftist Justice Department was quick to sperg out and say, “Missouri, you can’t do that” but Missouri just kept hitting “ignore” and sending them straight to voicemail when they called again and again.  In truth, the Feds will never be able to enforce Federal law in Missouri unless they unleash the might of the American military against the people of Missouri.

The chances of that happening aren’t particularly high, plus Missouri seems entirely justified.

Amazing what a little light will show you.

Missouri is just following the pattern we’ve been seeing from States for years.  Want to sell marijuana in violation of Federal law at the State level?  Sure.  Multimillion-dollar industries can be set up in a year.  Want to exclude police from helping enforce immigration laws?  Sure.

This is just the next, logical step.

And it gave me a crazy idea.

The 1819 Project.

In 1819, the Federal government didn’t have these regulations and laws.  In 1819, the average citizen’s interaction with the Federal government would have been voting for a Representative and voting for President.  We weren’t THE United States, we were the united States.

Until the Civil War, that was fairly clear – States were sovereign entities – they didn’t gain their existence from the Federal government, the Federal government got its existence from them.

The Federal government didn’t tax individuals.  The Federal government didn’t place arbitrary restrictions on what you could do with your business, your hiring, and your land.  These simply were not Federal issues.

Could the States regulate these things?  Certainly, that’s what the Constitution said.  Did they?  I imagine they did, some of them.  Were the states free to pick and choose who voted and how and why?  Yes., they were, and without resorting to appeal to the nine black-robed justices in Washington, D.C.

It’s funny that I can write the speeches the governor of Oregon will give in the future.

Could Oregon turn itself into a communist paradise?  Sure.  But it couldn’t turn its people into serfs, and it couldn’t put up walls to keep them in.  It might be able to keep people it didn’t want out, as would any State.

Sure.  That’s freedom.  But the Commie Rot would be stuck in Oregon.  And people could leave it.  Senators wouldn’t be elected, but appointed by State legislatures.  This improves the ability of the States to fight against silly things from larger States, and makes the ratification of a treaty a real event, not a popularity contest.

Corporations?  Well, like people, they’d have a finite purpose and a finite lifetime.  If corporations have the same rights as a person, they have to die, too.  70 years might be too long.

How about 40?  Regardless, in 1819, corporations had a charter, and existed for a specific purpose and had a specific lifetime.  That changed with a Supreme Court decision (not looking it up, it’s late) in the 1880s that gave corporations an infinite lifespan.

Sounds good to me.  Every corporation should have an end date.

But the point is that we don’t fight to conserve anything.  The time has now come for a Restoration.  What do we restore?  A culture filled with freedom; a culture where the Federal government was a tiny, distant force that had the responsibility of national defense and regulation of interstate commerce.

No, not the creeping interstate commerce regulations we have today (where having a phone number constitutes evidence of participating in “interstate commerce”) but a very limited scope so Texas can’t put tariffs on goods from Oklahoma.  This leaves room for the FAA, but very little room for the FBI since 99% of Federal crimes disappear overnight because they no longer exist.  And the ATF?  Only to enforce taxes and not kill women and children with fire.

Hey, it’s not easy to brutally enforce arbitrary regulations on law-abiding citizens.

Politics is downstream of Culture.  What’s needed is a Restoration of Culture.

If it sounds like I’m making up a movement, I assure you I’m not.  The 1819 Project is well underway and has been for years.  Parents are, especially in the Leftist parts of the world, pulling their kids from government schools and putting them in religious schools or homeschooling.  Why?

The 1819 Project has already started, at best, I’m giving it a name.  It’s well underway in places like Modern Mayberry, where a kid can grow up (more or less) free.  The Feds seem to have forgotten that rural places exist, and hardcore Leftists don’t seem to want to live here unless they can get ganja and free stuff.

That can be tough to take in.  Next week we’ll start in on how he’s born to treat women badly.

Places like Missouri are going to become the norm.  I anticipate that, with the coming Troubles I see, the Federal government will become weaker and weaker.  The hallmark of a failing government is more tyranny, but the people of the united States have seen their share of what happens when they give up their guns.  Pol Pot, Mao, and Stalin have provided a clear example that gun confiscation precedes life confiscation.

Will we get back to 1819 in values?  I have no idea.

But I do know we need to be headed towards something, and not just reacting.  1819 is a good start.

The plan.

Cassandra Says: Look Out Below

“Doing so might allow the energy to escape, with potentially catastrophic results.” – Lost

What do you get when you cross the Titanic with the Atlantic?  Halfway.

There is a rumor in The Mrs.’ family, that her Great-Grandpappy, the banker, warned all of his clients to pull their money out of the banks before Black Monday on October 28 of 1929.  According to the legend, he was a hero because he saved that money for all of his friends.  I heard that as an old banker he was sad, because he always drank a loan.

I have no idea if he saved all of that money, but the legend serves a purpose:  it confirms that, in most people’s minds, that there are wise people who can see trouble coming.

I can do that, too.  When The Mrs. chucks a can of Dinty Moore Beef Stew® at my head, well, I know instinctively that if I don’t duck I’ll end up with a crescent impression on my favorite noggin.  The Mrs. generally chooses stew instead of soup, because when she checked the pantry we were out of stock.

Pattern recognition and seeing trouble coming was something that the dead Roman philosopher, Seneca did fairly well.  Like a good Roman, he took a stab at it.

In one observation, Seneca noted that it’s really hard to build things up:  whether it be getting into good physical shape, or building a house or creating a civilization.  Purposeful, positive growth is hard and takes time.

Where did Brutus get his knife?  Traitor Joe’s.

But if I want to ruin my health it only takes half the time as it does to get into good shape.  A modern American house burns down so quickly that firefighters tell me that they don’t even try to save them.  If a Goodwill® store catches fire, they stay far away – they don’t want to inhale second-hand smoke.  If you want to destroy a civilization?  Well more on that later, but they evaporate much more quickly than it takes to build them.

Here’s what Seneca said:  “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.”  Actually, he said something in Latin, but when you quote Latin it sounds like a doctor is trying to pick up on a lawyer while gargling vodka.

I came across this concept while reading Italian chemistry professor Ugo Bardi’s blog (Cassandra’s Legacy) back in 2011.  That initial post I read back then is here (LINK).  Since that time, Dr. Bardi has written two books and now bases most of his blogging on that one philosophical statement.  Some people ride that one pony and ride it hard, and it looks like Ugo has found his.

There are some other things I’ve noticed that are related to this concept:

Generally, things go on until they collapse.  Is it easier to tear down a system and build a better one, or keep the old one going?

Duh.  People don’t like change.

They aren’t mentally wired for change.  During the few times in my life when electricity was out for extended times at the house (think hours or days), I find that I’ll walk into a dark room and absently reach out to turn on the light.  My rational mind knows that the power is gone, but I expect it to be there.

I hear at this blackout, people in New York City were stuck on escalators for hours.

When things collapse, there is generally a lot of energy built up in the failing system.  People try to prop up the system with all of the duct tape and baling wire they have.  This rarely makes things better.  Filling a failing dam up with more water doesn’t make the flood that comes after the dam fails better.

It makes it more catastrophic.

Failures like I’m describing tend to have the following characteristics:

  • They are cataclysmic. The end state isn’t predictable.
  • They happen all at once. As systems fail, they trigger the failure of related systems.  And so on.  It’s a chain reaction.  To go back to the flood analogy, these failures scour the landscape, ripping out useful and useless features alike simply because of the amount of energy that was released.
  • The more energy that’s stored (i.e., the longer we push back paying the piper), the bigger the destruction and the worse the hangover.

What’s the difference between a dam and a sock?  Almost everything.

Examples of this sort of near-apocalyptic societal transformation are actually abundant in history.

  • The French Revolution. In just a few short years, the French monarchy was deposed and replaced by a ruling junta of Leftist animals.
  • The first United States Civil War. It went from zero to armed combat across half a continent in just a few months.
  • The First World War. The Russian Revolution.  The Second World War.
  • The collapse of the Soviet Union.
  • I could really keep writing this list until dawn, but at some point I need some sleep.

The penalties are tough for misgendering in France. 

Just because the initial change happens in an instant, doesn’t mean that those changes will resolve in an instant.  The French Revolution started in 1789.  If you date the unrest that started on that day, you could pick the date that Napoleon went into his final exile as perhaps the end.  That was in 1814.

A girl born in 1789 in France would have been, perhaps, 25 then.  She would nearly certainly have been married, and probably would have her own child by then.  When we study history we encompass entire generations within the span of a paragraph, though some say that Moses started history when he got the first download from a cloud onto a tablet.

As I said, The Mrs.’ Great-Gramps apparently saved the day for his depositors because he looked around and saw what was going to happen.  True or not, it sometimes happens in reality.

Michael Burry did it, and more than once.

Who is Michael Burry?  Well, he’s the guy who shorted the real estate market in 2008 and made $100’s of millions of dollars for himself, and nearly a billion for other people in the process.

Christian Bale was movie him in The Big Short.  Burry just might have an idea or two about the economy.  What’s his take?

I wonder if they could get Chris Hemsworth to play movie me?

All I can say is be prepared – a day too late is far worse than a year too soon.

Money And Computers – Disaster Coming?

“Cats and dogs, living together.  Real wrath of God type stuff.” – Ghostbusters

A hacker got my friend’s bank account.  The hacker was so disappointed he started a fundraiser for my friend.

I drove up to the local generic national pharmacy that has systematically absorbed all the local pharmacies like Hillary Clinton absorbs the souls of the innocent.  The Mrs. had asked me to pick up a prescription for my scalp polish – she said she wanted to bounce a signal to the people up in the International Space Station.

To my surprise, I drove up to the drive-through window and saw this sign:

I had cash, but I figured it must be a nightmare inside for the people in the pharmacy.  I figured it would be easier on them for me to wait until they got it figured out before I came back.

After I saw the sign, I knew what was up:  yet another critical failure of an electronic data system leading to (probably) a nationwide outage.  I was right.

This is scary to me because of . . . money.

Money today is much more complicated than it was 200 years ago:  back then, it was (mainly) gold and silver and copper bits that we traded back and forth.  Most citizens of the newly-formed United States didn’t trust paper because the Continental Congress printed so many stacks of Continental money that it became as worthless as a math book to AOC.  This inflation and currency collapse gave rise to the phrase, “not worth a Continental.”

This is the direct reason that the Constitution had the clause that “no State may . . . make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts”.  Today, however, an arbitrary thing we all call a dollar exists.  But in many cases, those dollars may be entirely virtual.  I got paid by a direct deposit of electronic dollars into a bank account that, when I write a check, will send some of those electronic dollars to another bank.

This requires secure computer systems to work.  As we have seen, from oil to water treatment systems to my pharmacy, these systems are very capable of being hijacked.  Just this week, a list of 8 billion (yes, billion) passwords were being downloaded into the Internet, 6 billion of which were just “password”.  Chance are good that one of them was mine.  And one of them was yours.

It gets worse.  Should we even be trusting our computers?

A Russian research team found something scary:  undocumented instructions on Intel® computer chips.  As the researchers found out, these particular instructions couldn’t be run in the chip’s “normal mode.”  But why are they there?  Who could have put them there?

The NSA?  The CIA?

Want to bet that the NSA doesn’t really care how you encrypt your communications because they can read your typing and watch your screens in real-time?  I don’t know if the “Odin” post is some anon just making up a story, but with everything we’ve learned over the last decade, I’d be surprised if something like this didn’t really happen.

I would be shocked if they didn’t have the ability to take full control of my computer.  The United States government certainly reacted in a pretty negative way, pretty quickly.

What happens when you find a vulnerability?

Even turned down from sharing information about their data at the world’s most elite gathering of hackers.

Why wouldn’t Intel® want to know about vulnerabilities on their chips?  Hmmm?

Maybe the NSA could share tech with McDonalds®?

But if that backdoor vulnerability is there, what’s important to know is who has access to it.  As we look back, Stalin had not only a better mustache, but also better regular progress reports on the Manhattan Project than Truman did.  Who wants to bet that China doesn’t have backdoor data (if it exists)?  Who wants to bet that Chinese manufacture of motherboards and other electronic control architecture don’t have little extras added in?

I wouldn’t.

And, I’m not saying that the Chinese are evil for attempting to gain these particular secrets or this advantage – it’s a matter of self-preservation.  If I were President of the United States and had the ability to infiltrate all of the industrial, financial, and military assets of potential enemies, would I do that?

Sure.  But in this case, if you’re President of an increasingly weak government over an increasingly fracturing population, what do you do?  Anything you can in order to keep control, even if it means building in dangerous backdoors to critical products.

Which brings us back to money.

Money is essential to society as it is now configured.  A breakdown of the electronic systems that control the flow of money would, at minimum, bring utter chaos.  Matt Bracken famously asked this question nearly a decade ago:  “What if a cascading economic crisis, even a temporary one, leads to millions of EBT (electronic benefit transfer) cards flashing nothing but ERROR?”

We saw what three days without gasoline shipments did on the East Coast.  That would be nothing compared to what we’d see if the money system broke down.

Well, I think the pharmacy will be back up tomorrow, and the impact, for us, has been zero.

This time.

Welcome To The Exponential, Including One Bikini Graph

“If the rule you followed brought you to this, of what use was the rule?” – No Country For Old Men

When I went to Ireland I met some shy people, which surprised me.  No one expects the Irish inhibition.

I had noticed it some time ago a strange mathematical relationship – the National Debt (sort of) doubles about every eight years.  Is it an exact mathematical relationship?  Nope.  It varies a bit based on which eight years that you pick.  But the relationship is simple – the national debt is growing faster than yeast in AOC’s armpits, at about 9% per year.

It wasn’t always like that.

I also looked at the national debt between World War II and 1970 or so.  During that time period, the national debt was as flat as Joe Biden’s brain activity scan.  Hmm, whatever could have happened around 1970?

You’ll be happy to know that my search for “Richard Nixon bikini” came up empty.

The reason for most of our problems is that understanding the idea of exponential growth is difficult.  Our minds are (mostly) made for understanding linear things, or things that happen slowly.  No one really expects that, no matter how badly they eat, that they’d double in weight overnight, or even over the course of a month or year.

Yet, a lot of natural processes do follow exponentials, at least for a limited amount of time.  Take a baby.  Please.  I really have no use for them anymore.  Even the thought of a baby makes me exhausted.

Babies start with one cell, then two, then four, and then eight, and so on.  The initial growth of a child is exponential.  Thankfully, that levels off, or else there would be no way that I’d be able to afford to feed Pugsley.  If that exponential growth rate had continued, he’d be the size of the Solar System and need to eat cheeseburgers the size of Saturn just to make it to lunch.

Want fries with that Saturn?

No.  He’ll settle for the rings.

So, exponentials can’t continue on forever.  Math proves that.  If exponentials could continue forever, by the year 2032, the only blog left on the Internet would be this one, and everyone on Earth would have to spend 18 hours a day reading it.

Ahhh, I can dream.

But our national debt is following that trend.  Here’s a graph I put together:

Actual conversation with The Mrs.:  I said, “I promise I can make this [economic idea] interesting.”  The Mrs. responded, “Bikini graphs aren’t interesting to me.”

One of the lines is the actual national debt.  It’s the red one.  I just picked actual national debt data every eight years going into the past from today.  The other one?  I extrapolated back into the past from today: I just assumed that the national debt doubled every eight years.

How accurate was I?

In 1973 the actual national debt was $466 billion.  My backwards approximation?  $438 billion.  Close enough that a snake that was 3.14 feet long could be called a πthon.

Sure, in the middle, sometimes I was higher, sometimes lower.  But in general, I stuck the landing.

That means that in 2029 (if the United States is made of math) that we’ll be seeing a national debt of $56 trillion.  And in 2037?  $112 trillion.  Jeff Bezos sometimes works a whole year and doesn’t make that much money.

I heard he didn’t want to be CEO or president, just Prime® minister.

Does it make sense to anyone that the world will still keep accepting a doubling of debt every eight years and still keep sending us oil and steel and copper for the dollars that we print?  Sure, it worked for a long time.  Having an unmatched military and all the nukes gives a lot of room to dictate terms.

But how many people remember back to 1980 when the winner of the Cold War was in doubt?  The United States couldn’t print all of the dollars it wanted to without inflation.  The rule that the dollar followed changed, though, when the Soviet Union decided that it wanted to retire and spend the rest of eternity in Boca Raton in a retirement community gumming applesauce.

After that, the United States printing press could go wild.  Inflation?  Well, why bother with that?  The United States could print all the money it wanted and ship it overseas.  What else were people going to want?  Rubles?  Marks?  Rupees?

No.  The way that international trade was done was with the dollar.  We could print them up, and the world would soak them up and then the inflation could be exported all over the world, since the demand for dollars was now the entire world.  The United States could, in essence, tax the entire world to allow them to use the good old dollar.

I heard my chiropractor owes back taxes.

It was a good ride.  Need oil?  Print a few billion and send it to the Saudis.  Need copper?  Print a few million and send it to Chile.  Need cars?  Print a few billion and send it to Japan.

There are good things that happen when you win it all.  You get a trophy.  You get a party.  You get oil and copper and cars.  But if you have too much fun at the party?

There’s always the hangover.

Exponential growth can continue, and it can continue for quite a long time.  Without it, life itself wouldn’t be possible.  But life proves, again and again, that there is only so far that growth can go.

But, hey, it’s different this time, right?  The national debt can go on forever, right?

Civil War 2.0 Weather Report: The Cold Civil War?

“You didn’t bring a gun to the final shoot-out?” – Seven Psychopaths

This month the clocks were supposed to go back, but I forgot where I bought mine.

  1. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  2. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
  3. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
  4. Open War.

March was had increased violence as the country warmed up.  Sadly for the Left, none of the violence measured up to their requirements – they were looking for very specific circumstances.  They needed a white guy with an AR-15 killing four or more people, kids if possible.  The Left was disappointed.  All of their lottery violence tickets turned out to be of the wrong ethnicity, and then they were immediately disappeared from the news.  Poof.

I’m holding March at “just” a 9 out of 10.  That’s still two minutes to midnight.

I currently put the total at (this is my best approximation, since no one tracks the death toll from rebellion-related violence) holding at 650 out of the 1,000 required for the international civil war definition.

As close as we are to the precipice of war, be careful.  Things could change at any minute.  Avoid crowds.

In this issue:  Front Matter – The Cold Civil War – Violence And Censorship Update – Enter The Leftist Panopticon – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Running The Gun Gauntlet – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month.  I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues.  Also, feel free to subscribe and you’ll get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30 Eastern, free of charge.

The Cold Civil War

Loudoun County, Virginia – A group of school staff and elected officials formed a Facebook® group:  the “Anti-Racist Parents of Loudoun County”, which sounds nice enough, I guess.  What they were doing was, however, the opposite of nice.  They were plotting how to publicly destroy people who differ with their ideology.  You can read about the details here (LINK).

The Anti-Racist Parents of Loudoun County primary spokesthing, Jabba The Teacher.

What was the difference?  The “Anti-Racist Parents of Loudoun County” believe strongly in Marxist societal division theory Critical Race Theory (CRT).  If you haven’t read much about CRT, I can assure you that CRT is 100% a collectivist’s dream.  The laundry list of things that CRT advocates is pretty rough:

  • Dismantling merit-based systems
  • Removing rationality
  • Removing legal equality and Constitutional and legal race-neutrality
  • “Naming one’s own reality” – as in “My Truth” and not The Truth
  • Reparations, and nationalism (but only for non-whites)
  • And a lot of other things

In most bullet-point lists, I throw in a few silly ones just for fun.  Not in the list above, since almost everything that CRT stands for is very, very silly.

But here is a case of a group of Leftists wanting to destroy people because they don’t want them to judged by, apparently, their spelling:

Yup, this is real.  She can’t spell the name of her school (LINK) and goes from third person to first person in the same sentence. 

This is cancer in our country.  CRT is specifically designed to create division.  It is working.  The scariest part of this is that a group of publicly paid teachers and elected officials have set up a secret club to publicly destroy parents who disagree with them philosophically.

Welcome to the Cold Civil War.

 

Violence And Censorship Update

The biggest story in censorship this month is the censoring by Amazon® of the book When Harry Became Sally by Ryan T. Anderson.  The reason?  “Amazon™ has “chosen not to sell books that frame LGBTQ+ identity as a mental illness.”

Now, since one study showed that 41% of transgender folks had attempted suicide, well, there is at least an argument that mental illness may be at play in some cases of transgenderism.  That’s a weak statement, and almost certainly true.  Yet, Amazon© wouldn’t allow that to be published in 2021.

What message does that send to a writer?  More importantly, what information does that send to a publisher?  Since Amazon™ sells between 50% and 80% of the books sold in the United States, would a major publisher take a chance on ideas that Amazon© might find objectionable?

No.

And it’s looking like YouTube™ wants to remove the “dislike” button.  Why?  There are several theories, but one that amuses me the most is that Joe Biden’s handlers are upset that whenever he has a video out, that the dislikes overwhelmingly swamp the people who hit the “like” button.  The comments are already turned off.

I built an IKEA® bookcase I called Joe.  It was pretty shaky and leaned hard to the Left.

In YouTube©’s latest idea, the “dislike” button will still be there, and you can still use it.  The video creator can see the number of dislikes, too.  So, if it’s an anti-bullying campaign, it’s the stupidest one ever because the bullied person can still see how many people don’t like them.

I’ll note that in the videos I reviewed for this post, none of them have comments available.

They know you don’t like them.  They know what you think of them.  They just don’t want other people to be able to see it.

Enter The Leftist Panopticon:

There was a creepy English guy named Jeremy Bentham who was a “social” thinker in 18th century England.  One of his inventions was a prison.  The idea that Jeremy had was a prison where just a few guards could look and see everyone at once.  This panopticon was a prison where you were never really free of the gaze of the guards.

Welcome to 2021, so we have to be able to do better than that, right?

If Donald Trump had indicated that he was going to use government money to hire private companies to scour social media to find people that opposed him, and use the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to run the program, Elon Musk would have been able to hear the Leftist outcry from his pleasure palace on Mars.

On the plus side, I’m thinking my FBI agent is happy as I make those small, but necessary changes to better my life.

But swap out the name to “Joe Biden” and there has been remarkably little negative comment.  Have a need to update the No-Fly™ list with pesky people from the Right?

Go for it.  And here’s the (LINK) to prove I’ve not been making this up after watching too much Alex Jones.

The Left will certainly do it.  And it won’t be limited to recent ideas, either.  The way that Leftists feel about the Right is simple:  if you ever, ever supported something the Left is against now?  You’re a heretic.  Cancelled.

Do you expect the DHS to be any different now they’re in the hands of the Left?

We have entered an era of technology where every move that you make can be tracked.  I noticed this on my phone when I stopped at a new restaurant.  Google® popped up with, “Hey, can you tell us if this restaurant has any typographical errors on the menu?”  Google’s® A.I. was asking little old me to help it know absolutely everything about everyplace.

That same Google® data was used and cross-referenced to bring charges against people who were in the Capitol on January 6, 2021.  This data went from, “we can’t use” to “we won’t use” to “we will use” in just a few years.  It’s now a primary tool for law enforcement.

As will be your friends, your email, your web history, your web search history, and, soon enough, a track of you moving from camera to camera in any urban space.

The Civil War 2.0 implication is this:  the Left is using this information actively.  Act accordingly.

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real-time.  They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings.  As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that lead to the index.  On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Up is more violent, and violence is up in March.  I expect it to jump in April.  If Chauvin is found not guilty?  Through the roof.  The state-media propaganda of “home grown terrorism” is increasing the public perception of violence at this point.

Political Instability:

Up is more unstable.  Instability is near record levels, as the Right doesn’t believe in President *, and the Left wants to cancel the Right.

Economic:

I expected this number to be more positive.  It’s not.  I think we will find that April is the month that we find that inflation moves from a thought to a widely-felt reality.

Illegal Aliens:

This data is at record levels for this time of year.  Comments from the Left?  “There needs to be more.”

Running The Gun Gauntlet

I had predicted that the ludicrous Sheila Jackson-Lee bill for gun control would be dead on arrival.  I was right.  But the other bills keep moving along and are a lot more likely to pass.

They’re smaller bills.  Increasing the number of background checks by making almost all transactions require background checks.  There’s a “family exemption” that soon enough will become a “family loophole” after the appropriate victim and shooter combination is found.

Guns don’t kill people, Democratic voters kill people.

In reality, there’s no way to track these background checks, since a very large number of guns in existence have absolutely no paperwork of any type connecting them to their current owner.  After the background checks don’t stop gun violence, the call will come for a national gun registry so that ownership can be tracked.

Registration at the Federal level won’t happen, because people won’t register.  Okay, some would.  But most won’t.  When Connecticut tried to get “assault” weapons registered, it is assumed that only one weapon out of eight was registered.  People know what is at stake.

Doing all of this at once is too much, and too far.  The average American gun owner simply will not comply with registration in 2021, and even the stupidest Leftist understands that widespread noncompliance just gives people a reason to understand the relative strength of individuals and the relative weakness of the government.

As I’ve said before on another post (LINK), the largest army that the world has ever seen are the 80,000,000+ members of the Right in the United States.  As soon as the Right realizes that, they will understand that we truly are only ruled by our consent.

And that is truly what the Left fears.

LINKS

As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky.  Thanks so much!!

The MSM narrative remains fragmented.

The Alt-Right Civil War

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/30/jan-6-capitol-riot-jail-time-478440

https://www.opb.org/article/2021/03/28/proud-boys-clash-with-anti-fascists-in-salem/

https://wwmt.com/news/local/fbi-testifies-wolverine-watchmen-were-trying-to-instigate-a-second-civil-war

https://www.newsweek.com/pastor-rick-joyner-urges-american-christians-prepare-civil-war-1576570

https://napavalleyregister.com/opinion/letters/trump-s-undeclared-civil-war/article_16821682-efae-5831-868b-a239815747ba.html

https://napavalleyregister.com/opinion/letters/the-real-civil-war/article_6c453064-39db-5540-949e-e8f9dfd071be.html

The Republican Civil War

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2021/03/31/cold-civil-war-being-waged-republicans

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/3/29/a-cold-civil-war-is-being-waged-in-america

https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-next-battle-for-american-democracy-is-around-the-corner-and-moderates-must-be-in-the-fight/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/4/1/22356594/conservatives-right-wing-democracy-claremont-ellmers

The Black Civil War

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/04/the-many-lives-of-grandmaster-jay/618408/

https://allhiphop.com/features/the-nfacs-grand-master-jay-speaks-out-on-legal-status-hip-hop-freedom-and-the-future/

https://www.msnbc.com/craig-melvin/watch/-it-means-that-you-re-preparing-yourself-to-defend-yourself-nfac-leader-on-militia-name-meaning-108925509977

https://news.yahoo.com/inside-look-black-militia-group-110636647.html

https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/armed-protesters-in-douglasville-were-peaceful-sheriff-says

The Armed Forces Civil War

https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2542699/seac-dod-will-move-fast-against-extremism-after-completion-of-stand-downs/

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/03/19/some-troops-see-capitol-riot-blm-protests-similar-threats-top-enlisted-leader-says.html

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2021/03/29/civilian-employee-who-allegedly-advocated-for-civil-war-banned-from-air-force-base/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aaronsmith/2021/04/01/gun-sales-soar-from-stimulus-and-bidens-gun-control-plan-amid-mass-shootings/?sh=378c7e866020

https://slate.com/technology/2021/02/3d-printed-semi-automatic-rifle-fgc-9.html

https://www.amestrib.com/story/news/2021/03/25/iowa-state-isu-students-emailed-3-d-printed-guns-day-after-boulder-mass-shooting-colorado/6995202002/

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/03/could-the-u-s-ban-guns-australia-tried-something-pretty-close/

 

The American Civil War

https://www.aier.org/article/the-end-of-america/

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17179/hr1-for-the-people

https://wirepoints.org/mass-federalization-how-washington-is-bailing-out-failed-states-decapitating-competitive-ones-and-ending-america-as-you-knew-it-wirepoint

https://www.persuasion.community/p/john-mcwhorter-the-neoracists

https://thecritic.co.uk/schools-gone-woke/

Pyramids, Captain Kirk, And Skills

“Seven days ago one of my satellites over Antarctica discovered a pyramid.” – Alien vs. Predator

A friend tried to rope me into a pyramid scam.  “Don’t you want to be your own boss,” he asked me.  “No, I hate working for jerks.”

When I graduated from college, I graduated at the same time as one of my close friends.  The employment market was only so-so, but we both managed to grab jobs in a town near the college.  Whereas my job was, um, more rough and tumble (I was a rodeo clown at for chubby people at the Golden Corral® – my worst day was when Megan McCain and Oprah showed up together), my friend’s job ended up being at a suit and tie kind of place.  Thankfully, we still were working in the same city, and we got together frequently.

One night he asked a question over Buffalo wings and too many beers:  “Where did they go?”

“What?  Where did who go?”

“All the old guys.  I mean, I go to work, and I see that there are dozens of people less than thirty.  Then, maybe twenty percent are between thirty and forty.  After forty?  It’s a wasteland.  Hardly anyone but upper management is over forty.”

I thought about his question.  Where did they go?  The company I was working at (and most of the companies I’ve worked at since then) had a similar pyramid shape.  Some have been steeper, and some shallower, but all have had that shape.

I have a good construction joke, but I’m still working on it.

So, where did they go?

Well, they didn’t retire – not from the company they were at – they didn’t make nearly enough to retire at 27 and live on the island with Jim Morrison, Janis Joplin, Kurt Cobain and Robert Johnson.

Nope.  The vanished people were gone.  Where?  Somewhere else.  Some other industry, some other career.  It was uno, dos, and then they vanished without a tres.

Probably the biggest reason for that pyramid shape is that younger people cost less.  Do they know less?  Sure, but inexpensive is an attribute all of its own.

But any hierarchical organization has fewer slots for leaders than for followers.  The armed forces are a similar example.  I once made the acquaintance of a (no kidding) Captain Kirk.  Now, this Captain Kirk wasn’t in Starfleet®, he was in the United States Army.  And he was sweating for promotion.

Captain Kirk was denied promotion.  I’m thinking that someone the Pentagon saw that Captain Kirk was trying to be promoted to Major Kirk, and that there was no way that the Army would ever give up the numerical superiority they had over the Navy in their number of Captain Kirks.

No, not this Kirk.

The armed forces are a classic example of that pyramid structure:  there are fewer generals than colonels, and fewer colonels than majors.  And, if officers (in a certain range) fail to be promoted a certain number of times?

Well, there’s the door.  So, Captain Kirk soon enough was in the private sector, and I lost track of him from there.  I think he got lost somewhere in the Veridian System.

Most (but not all) companies are built upon this pyramid model.  I’ve seen high-end consulting firms where it’s a paradise for everyone born in the Eisenhower era, but those are the exception, not the rule.  Plus, they charge enough to pay for the most expensive video-streaming service ever:  college during Corona.

So, the rub is that for many, the rule is up or out.

What to do?

Invest in the one thing that can never be taken away from you:  your skills.

My poor reading skills cost me a career in sex-worker management.  On the bright side, now I own a warehouse.

In 2017 I would have given a completely different list of skills than 2021.  It would have been far more dull and predictable.  But 2021?  2021 is like a tarot card reader’s business:  unpredictable.  Part of it will come down to plain dumb luck and good timing.

I’d suggest:

  • Have general skills. General skills are widely applicable and get a job quickly in lots of different locations.    Teacher.  Tom Brady’s tooth polisher.
  • Or, have skills that are so specific that they are nearly impossible to replicate. (Specific skills require a time and a place.  I’m sure that all of the folks working on the Keystone XL pipeline had great skills.  Until those skills aren’t needed.)  If you want a great choice for the Biden year, I’d suggest a carbon-neutral way to turn cash into Democratic votes.  Oh, wait, they’ve got that figured out.
  • Protip: growth industries will be the ones that the Left loves for the next two years, at least.  If it’s green and fuzzy, the Left will fill it full of money.  I’m thinking of investing in pool tables.
  • Have skills that can’t be done remotely from a foreign country. Right now, that includes teaching.  I’m sure there are more, but I’ve been at a loss since Biden figured out how to be the president from China.
  • Have skills where a certification that a foreigner can’t get are required. Top secret clearances are nice.  I’m working on a top-secret project to ferment honey to make ethanol for cars.  The project is all on a mead-to-know basis.

To be fair, I had an addiction to stealing traffic lights.  But I could stop whenever I wanted to.

A lot of the suggestions above would have made the 2017 list.

In 2021, however, I must stress that the world might get a lot more, um, basic than we’re used to.  The reason that my Great-Great-Grandma McWilder (GGGMcW) did fine during the Great Depression was she knew how to make clothes from cloth, a needle, and thread.  And if the cloth wasn’t big enough for a dress?  It was big enough to be made into part of a hand-made quilt.  Like Jean-Luc Picard, she could make it sew.

GGGMcW also knew how to raise chickens.  And raise a garden.  Probably 30% or more of the calories they ate came from the backyard – as he added soil to the garden, I’m sure he said, “so, the plot thickens.”  But Great-Great-Grandpa McWilder was no slouch, either.  He didn’t have a great repair shop, but the man fixed every aspect of his house, by himself.  Roof leaked?

It was his job to fix.  Ants?  His to kill.  Broken suitcase handle?  His to fix.

Honestly, I don’t recall them buying anything much more than flour, sugar, bread, chicken, and hamburger and the occasional vegetable.  I don’t think the area was friendly to corn so I think they got that in cans.  They would have grown more vegetables, but they weren’t from Okra-homa.

I installed a beer tap in my house – now The Mrs. complains that she can’t take a shower.

But there was more.  The Great-Greats were also tied into their community, and had been there a decade.  The connections they had bonded them to the community.  How so?  During the Depression they raised another child from a family that couldn’t afford to feed the kid.

The pyramid is real.  In many ways opportunities may diminish over time.  But life goes on, so keep investing in the skills that you might need.

All of them.  Because you have no idea what the future might bring.

Money In 2021? (Explained With One Bikini)

“Well, Saddam owed us money.” – Arrested Development

What does Superman® dry off with?  A Tow-El.

Money.

What is it?

Really, the truth is money is anything we accept as having value that we can trade for something else.  Cigarettes have been used for money.  Cowrie shells were used in China for money nearly 4,000 years ago.  Booze has often been used for money.

I read an article back in 2013 that bottles of Tide® were being used to trade for drugs in New York City, so you know that there are plenty of insane.  Heck, I hear the Germans are even raising money online through Krautfunding.

Ideally, money has some sort of scarcity attached to it.

Gold has a historic role as money.  You can cut it up into very, very tiny pieces, and you have lots of tiny pieces of gold.  It hasn’t changed – you can melt it back into a single bar again, having lost nothing.  You cut up a dollar bill into very tiny pieces?  You have a pile of gerbil cage fluff.

Gold is nice.  So is silver.

But, like anything, there are problems.

I found a little gold once while prospecting – it was a minor success.

Well, generally always the same problem.  Government.

I’ve mentioned Rome before, because it’s a great illustration of what happens when government designs money.

At the beginning, Roman silver coins were, well, actually silver.  The problem with silver coins is that you can’t make silver show up out of thin air.  Oh, wait, if you’re a government, you can.  The Imperial Romans managed to maintain enough restraint that their silver coins were over 90% silver for a little over 150 years after Empire.

Proving once again I definitely deserve the Nobel Prize™ in Economics for my discovery of Bikininomics©.

After that, the percentage of silver in the coins declined rather quickly.

So did the Roman Empire.

Interestingly, where it took Rome 150 years, it took the United States 142 years for the same thing to happen:  from 1792 (when the Coinage Act was passed) to 1934 (when Roosevelt confiscated United States silver and gold).  History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme.

Sure, there were silver coins produced after 1934, but silver coins were (largely) discontinued as United States currency in 1965.  (*There were exceptions for dollar and half dollar coins in selected years.  That ended in 1976.)

As soon as the non-silver coins were minted, the silver coins began to disappear from circulation.  Gresham’s Law states the simple fact:  bad money (non-silver coins) drives out good money (silver coins).

But it’s had an impact on people’s thought processes as well:  they have (largely) stopped thinking about gold and silver as money.  Want proof?

Yup.  When Mark Dice offered people either a King Size® Hershey’s™ chocolate bar or a 10 ounce silver bar, everyone chose the candy bar.  As bad money replaced good, people stopped even thinking about silver as money.

The money supply today is fiat money.  I’ve written about that before – it means that our money is entirely made up.  No silver backing, no gold backing, the only backing is the faith of the people who accept it.  Oh, and several thousand nuclear weapons, if you’re talking about the United States dollar.

The next step from that are the cryptocurrencies.

Those are entirely a mathematical concept, though Ricky has noted in comments that this mathematical construct can cost upwards of a million dollars in power a day.  Bitcoin is currently at $33,000.  Four days ago?  $40,257.

Used with permission.

Is Bitcoin a bubble?  Will it go to zero?  Will I go to $500,000?

Honestly, I have no idea.  I would have bet against it going to $40,000.

The scary part of today is just that uncertainty.

  • Gold has (generally) held its value over time, performing far better than the dollar since the Federal Reserve© came into being.
  • Gold hasn’t performed as well as stocks over the same period – creative people added more value than a motionless metal.
  • Stocks are today at a valuation that is (by my reckoning) insane. They can stay that way longer than I can bet against them.
  • Bitcoin? Who can say?  I think its primary role right now is to indicate bubble tops.
  • Bonds? Who wants to buy bonds at nearly zero interest rates?

This is probably one of the more difficult times to invest in my lifetime – risks are very high, but returns don’t seem to have kept up.

First role of 2021?  Don’t talk about 2020.

We seem to be, everywhere I look, near to a breaking point in our systems – economic, political, and social.  Who knows, maybe we’ll be back at cowrie shell money by 2030.

But I think I’d prefer the booze, since I don’t smoke and, well, if you have booze do you really need clean clothes?

Penultimate Day And 2021 Thoughts

“The Babylon Project was our last, best hope for peace.  It failed.  But in the year of the Shadow War, it became something greater: our last, best hope for victory.  The year is 2260. The place: Babylon 5.” – Babylon 5

Why did 2020 cross the road?  To get to the other cyanide.

This year we didn’t celebrate our traditional Wilder family holiday, Penultimate Day.  What does Penultimate Day entail?

Well, you drive south for two hours or so.  Then you go to Best Buy® and, under no circumstances do you buy a cell phone.  But you must look at cell phones.  Then, after not buying a cell phone, you go to Olive Garden® and have some nice pasta.

This celebration started (I think) in 2011 or 2012, I think.  The Mrs.’ cell phone (a Blackberry®!) was going south.  We drove to the nearest cell phone store that was tied to our carrier, which was a Best Buy™ about two hours from us.  We got frustrated attempting to figure out the deals after the phone clerk wheeled out a surgical gurney to take out part of my intestines.  I told him, “No way!”

“Really?  You need to look at the contract closer.  It’s in the appendix.”

We gave up on buying a phone.

Then, frustrated at our lack of being able to find a phone, we gave up and decided to have dinner.

Hobbits always use vibrate on their phones – they don’t want the ring to give them away.

And then we drove home.  It was impossibly silly, driving a total of four hours to go to not buy a cell phone.  And we did it on December 30.  So, I made the joke that since the New Year was a made-up holiday, why not make up our own?  Thus Penultimate Day – the next-to-last day of the year – became an official Wilder holiday.

Over the years, we took Penultimate Day seriously.  There were one or two exceptions where we skipped Penultimate Day, primarily because Pugsley or The Boy had a sports event.  That is, of course, acceptable.  The goal of Penultimate Day is to do something fun together as a family.

We stuck to celebrating Penultimate Day.  Why?   Because it was fun, it was silly, and it was ours.

We didn’t celebrate Penultimate Day this year.

First, traveling into a major metropolitan area didn’t make sense to us – here in Modern Mayberry the case-rate for the WuFlu is relatively low, and we have no idea what the requirements are to even go into Best Buy® in Major Undisclosed Metropolitan Area.  Second, while we enjoy going to the Olive Garden™, I’m still convinced that the free breadsticks are some kind of con game.  I keep expecting a bill to arrive from them in 2028:  “owed to Olive Garden© for “free” breadsticks:  $257,065.”

What’s the only pasta you can get during COVID-19 lockdown?  Macaroni and sneeze.

Instead, we slept in late, played a few games, and more-or-less relaxed the entire day.  Our contribution to the economy of the United States?  We had a nice dinner The Mrs. cooked for us at home, used some natural gas to fire our heater, and spent about $3 in electricity for lighting the place.  That was it.  Our participation in the economy on December 30, 2020 was probably less than $20, total.

That’s the problem if you’re running an economy.  No gasoline, no money heading to the Olive Garden©, and no tip to the waitress.

I read that Christmas spending was down this year, to $851 from $976 in 2019.  That’s a drop of 13%.  But this is Monday, not Wednesday when we talk about economics.  On Monday, we talk about the big picture.

But 13% is a huge drop-off.  And when you add in all of the activities that people aren’t doing?  I imagine it was even more.  The big picture?  Economic contraction increases instability.

I wrote in 2019’s Penultimate Day that we were entering a period of chaos, where entire edifices that we used to stand behind would crumble.  Now, we sit in 2021, and a majority of the people who voted in the national election think it was rigged.

How do you get a baby alien to sleep?  Rocket.

Also rigged?  The system of justice in the nation.  We see Antifa® and BLM© “peacefully” destroy cities.  The massive number of unindicted felons?  It’s okay to loot.

2020 was a mess, but it looks like we got to get a glimpse of the man behind the curtain.

2021 will certainly start out like a mess.  January is going to be chaotic.  Regardless, I’m optimistic about 2021 – not because I’m insane, but because I know what starts the upward rise:  the upward rise starts after you’ve fallen and hit bottom.  While we around the world have fallen and are headed toward the bottom, the biggest lesson is this:  bring something back up with you.

That’s the question for today:  what can we bring back up with us?

  • Understanding that the world can change around you in an instant. One moment, the world was normal.  The next?  Lockdowns, the destruction of an economy.
  • Understanding where your vulnerabilities are. Food?  Toilet paper?  What can you do to fix them?
  • Knowing that your job is not “safe” – the entire economy isn’t safe. Be prepared for more dislocations.  What skills are you working on?

These are important realizations.  In 2021 and for the foreseeable future, complacency will not be your friend.  Constantly question your assumptions.  Constantly try to understand your side, but also periodically ask yourself, “What if I’m wrong?”  Try to understand the other side of the issue, too.

You may or may not be wrong, but questioning (not doubting, but questioning) yourself is key to deep understanding.  Hold your own beliefs up to the same scrutiny you use on opposing beliefs.

Thankfully, hindsight is 2020.  Or did I get that backward?

As I wrote on Friday, I’m not sure that 2021 will be a great year, but it will be a birth year for the next phase of what happens to our society.  What’s probable this year?

  • Unemployment continues, and likely gets worse. Ideas of a quick rebuild will be crushed.  People at the bottom end – twentysomethings and service workers – are already hoisting a white flag.
  • Society will become even more fractured. Left and Right are guaranteed to be further apart in 2021 – the way this presidential election has gone is sure to inflame both sides, no matter what happens.
  • The very mechanisms that we normally see as protecting society will continue to erode. People on the Right who are defending the “thin blue line” will become aware that many (not all!) of the police will do whatever the people signing their checks tell them to do.  This is not the year to be a cop in Portland, Oregon.
  • People will continue to flee California and large Leftist cities in a locust-like plague. They will not leave their Leftist ideas behind.
  • The debt of the United States will continue to climb. My bet?  We add another $4-5 trillion this year.  That doesn’t include personal debt and business debt.  The idea that printing money is better than earning it will continue and probably increase in 2021.  This idea will only stop when events force it to stop.

But as I said in the introduction to Friday’s post, I remain weirdly optimistic that, even given all of these trends, this will be a year that we will look back on and say, “That was the year that things changed.”  Certainly, 2020 was a year that will likely be looked on as the start of the crisis.  2021 will be looked at as the year that the seeds of the new are planted.

How can I better describe it?

1776 is they year that most people associate with the birth of the United States.  What most people forget is that it wasn’t until 1787 that the Constitutional Congress was held.  Likewise, it wasn’t until 1789 that George Washington was sworn in as our first President.  That was thirteen years after 1776 – thirteen years where there was war, economic failure, and finally a coming together over a very unique document.

Change takes time.

What did Washington say before his men got in the boats to cross the Delaware to attack the British?  “Get in the boats.”

So, if I’m right, people will look back on 2021 and say, “That was when things turned around.”

And the good news is, Penultimate Day or not, you’ll be there for it.  Again, I never said it was going to be easy.  It will likely be the complete opposite of easy.

Freedom rarely is easy.  And I’m still pretty sure that the Olive Garden© has a comprehensive spreadsheet somewhere charting my breadstick consumption . . . .