Category: Silly Predictions

“Dr. Norman was experimenting with energy and mass. To make it brief, it got away from him. He found he had made a mass of energy that somehow came alive. It feeds on more energy, and it lives only to feed. I’m afraid it consumed Dr. Norman before he could stop it.” – Jonny Quest

I was once kidnapped by a gang of mimes.  They did unspeakable things to me.

Apologies to all on missing the podcast tonight – The Mrs. was feeling great this morning, and then headed south about two hours before the show.  Darn her for demanding that she have actual oxygen in her blood.  So selfish!  Should she feel okay, we’re looking at having a New Year’s Eve show (her idea) on, wait for it, New Year’s Eve.  I’m thinking 9pm Eastern, but who knows – her blood is fickle.

So, on to today’s post, inspired by a reader’s comment on email . . .

The most fundamental economic and political choice of our lives is energy.  I phrased that intentionally – the impacts of the energy we use as a society are economic.  Energy has been political since the 1930s, at the very least.

The idea of energy might be economic and political, but the reality is pure physics.  There is no law that Congress can pass that can create more energy – only allow that which exists to be used.  And there is no amount of money that can be printed to that can make energy appear where none exists.

Some Leftists say truth is subjective, but let them try to pretend that their house at -40°F is actually 70°F.  I guess that you could say that they’re trans-comfortable?  No.  They’re frozen.  Reality is like that.  And energy is like that, too.  Unlike monetary policy or laws, energy doesn’t care what people want.

The story of energy, though, is the story of human culture.

Energy has been a part of human life since the first waggling finger (thank you, Rudyard, original poem below) burned itself on a fire.  Meat tastes good, but tastes better once it has been cooked.  It also heated the caves and tents that early man lived in.  It was the original killer app – I can guarantee that at some point, a fire in a cabin or tent or cave saved someone who was your direct ancestor.

I hear you can get fired from the keyboard factory if you don’t put in enough shifts.

In the form of crude wood fires, energy did a few things for people, helping to tan skins, cure meats, harden wood, and eventually fuel fires that made the first man-made metals and ceramics.  The demand was low, but the impacts were huge.  Food, clothing, weapons, and the basis of civilization.  You can’t have beer unless you have a beer bottle, right?

Romans used it even more – they had central heating in their villas in Roman Britain, heated baths, and used it in lots of other ways I’m too lazy to look up.  One hint:  those Roman shields and swords didn’t make themselves.  And the iron nails in Jerusalem, circa 32 A.D.?  Yeah, those required energy as well.

Romans were amazing at using energy, but most of the energy they used was human; they didn’t exactly have outboard motors on their ships.  It was wind or oars.  The Romans used fire, but the real energy source for Empire was animal and human.  That source of energy was totally renewable – people are born every day, and they eat food that is raised every year.

There are huge implications to this:  slave labor was the original renewable energy.  Oops!  That’s not politically correct, though the World Economic Forum® did take notes.

After the fall of the Roman Empire, people continued to innovate.  That’s what we do.  Dams provided water power for mills.  Mills could grind grain, or they could operate pumps to pull water out of mines.  And wind?  Windmills could use wind to mill.  Duh.  It’s in the name.

If a former president didn’t like windmills, could we call him Donald Quixote?

All of that was a necessary predecessor to the real powerhouse:  steam.  Sure, steam-powered toys had been created 2,000 years earlier, but steam power was needed because of the mines that were needed to get the metals to manufacture electric guitars and iPads® back in the 1600s.  Or whatever they did with them.  Maybe banjos?

The Industrial Revolution came almost entirely based on the use of energy.  The developments in the 1800s changed everything.  Transport?  Trains.  Communications?  Telegraphs.  Cool products?  Factories.  Navy?  Fast steamships.  This is a wickedly small set of examples – the availability of energy changed everything.  But at this point, the energy mix changed.  Prior, it was mostly wood.

Now it was the age of coal and steel.

The biggest change it created was the ability to have a metric butt-ton of additional people.  Energy changed agriculture and changed food distribution.  After the Haber-Bosch process allowed for the fixing of nitrogen for increased plant yields (which required another metric butt-ton of energy) but this changed the demand.  Coal was still pretty nifty, but it was no longer enough.

Now was the age of oil.

Cars were required to move products.  Gas was required for fertilizer, and heating and chemical products.

Tesla® cars are expensive because they charge a lot.

The result of all of this was amazing – an explosion of the numbers of people living on Earth like never before, even in places that could never support them.

Wars were fought over energy.  Why did the Germans fight at Stalingrad?  Because they were trying to secure oil.  There was no hybrid-panzer.  The Allies won because there were lakes of oil underneath Texas, mountains of iron ore in Minnesota, and marksmen from Georgia.  The biggest contributor?

The oil.

Without it, the Shermans don’t sherm, the Mustangs won’t must, and the carrier fleet are amusing, odd-shaped coral reefs.  Oil won World War II.  If the Germans had the reserves of Texas under Bavaria, Stalin would have been a minor footnote in history after 1942.

Oil was pretty plentiful as geologists wend around the world hunting for it after 1945.  It was found in the wastelands of the Arctic, the scorching deserts of Saudi Arabia, and on the coast of California.  Really, anywhere where people don’t want to live in 2022.

The lakes of oil in Texas weren’t infinite.  In 1973, Texas removed controls on production.  The straws weren’t dry, but the abundance was done.  The Arabs also decided that, perhaps, oil was now (for the second time since 1943) the most potent weapon in the world besides nuclear bombs and Leftism was unleashed.  The oil embargo showed how much the world depended on oil to make Big Macs™ and G.I. Joes©.  One oil shock (combined with Nixon’s taking the United States off the gold standard) was enough to send the economy into the stagflation of the 1970s.

But I heard since he died, he’s a great cook.  His pasta is Al Dante.

Oil is why the Cold War ended.  Star Wars was an important initiative, but the bigger cause of the failure of the Soviet Union was that Reagan convinced the Saudis to pump oil like it was free.  The Soviet economy, dependent on oil revenue to keep their machine going?  Done.  Oil killed the two out of three of the great empires of the twentieth century.

That brings us to today.

Almost all of the growth in oil production since 2008 was based on fracking.  The previous pools of oil were still producing, but the oil companies had to go farther and farther afield, such as deep water miles deep in places like the Gulf of Mexico.  Places where getting the oil was expensive – it’s not like we found another several billion barrels in the backyard behind the garden shed.  Regular places where oil was were drying up.  A game changer was needed.  Something different.

Fracking was different.  It was difficult, required new technologies, and grew by a factor of ten in only ten years, making the United States a net energy exporter for the first time since before John Kennedy did an afternoon drive in Texas.

Oil is an amazing fuel, and I bathe in sweet, sweet gasoline every night.  But to meet the needs of the world, the struggle is difficult.  Cheap energy takes huge investment, but that’s not all.  It requires the energy source to be there.

The Mrs. says I’m cheap.  I’m not buying it.

Our energy has been cheap since about 1920 or so.  The idea that it will be cheap forever is magical thinking, unless oil is infinite (it is not).  Our choice on energy isn’t economic, it’s based on physics.

And, with everything I’ve read, the physics of alternative energy solutions, especially the “renewable” ones that are touted based on political reasons, result in the energy cost doubling (at least) and that’s after the investment of trillions of dollars to build the necessary energy production facilities and infrastructure.  This will likely be the subject of future posts.

I hate to break the Christmas spirit, but it is the single most important question facing humanity today.  When the price of energy is low, freedom is high.  When the price of energy is high?

Oh, yeah.  Slavery.

As promised, here’s Kipling, Gods of the Copybook Headings:

As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market-Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall.
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn.
That water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision, and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorilas while we followed the March of Mankind.

We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither clud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market-Place;
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch.
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch.
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings.
So we worshiped the Gods of the Market Who promiced these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promiced perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: ‘Stick to the Devil you know.’

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promiced the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbor and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: ‘The Wages of Sin is Death/’

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selective Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: ‘If you don’t work you die.’

The the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tounged wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to belive it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four—
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man—
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began:—
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her mire,
And the burnt Fool’s bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!