“Oh, my God! The automatic pilot! He’s deflating!” – Airplane!
I went to see a hedge fund manager at work and punch him in the face. And then get a Quarter Pounder®.
Welcome to the next step down. But how is this going to go?
First, there are signs that this will lead to more inflation than a Kardashian’s butt experiences in an entire season of whatever crap they’re doing on TV. Here are some signs pointed towards inflation:
- It’s inflation season. That comes right after blowing up Russian pipeline season, duck season, rabbit season, duck season, rabbit season, and train derailment season.
- $2 trillion (a number no doubt made up because it sounded good to whatever political appointee approves these things) of newly printed cash has been allocated to “stabilize” the banking system.
When Bernie Madoff stole his investors money, the Fed® didn’t backstop the investors, even though they couldn’t keep up with the compounding interest of Madoff’s lies. That was deflationary. But backstopping all bank customers, everywhere?
That’s more inflationary than Stormy Daniels, umm, attributes. I heard a rumor that half of Oprah’s money was in Silicon Valley Bank®. She got very upset when she thought that Elon Musk would be the only remaining African-American billionaire.
Everyone needs a backup. Mars is Elon’s planet-B.
The latest announcement from the Fed® on their plans to stop inflation sounded desperate. I imagine that Janet Yellin would offer to learn poll dancing if she thought it would lower inflation. I think that might work, since never in the history of mankind have so many dollar bills jumped back into pockets than when Janet walks on stage.
What about things that indicate that deflation might be around the corner?
- During the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank™, it sounds like all of their bondholders and shareholders got vaporized. So, at least $15 billion and probably closer to $30 billion in cash was vaporized faster than a hoagie at Oprah’s house.
- The stock market is down. When the market goes down, the money doesn’t power a secret spaceship, it just disappears like my biological father did when my biological mother got pregnant.
- When interest rates go up, housing prices go down. Why? People buy houses based on borrowed money, and higher interest rates don’t increase the amount of money that they pay at (spins wheel) the PEZ™ factory. Nope, it just makes the house payment more expensive, unless the price of the house goes down. This is deflationary, because right now housing value is vaporizing like crack at Hunter’s place on a Saturday night.
The Chairman of the Fed® thought he was a magician, but he had chocolate on his shirt. He thought he had Twix® up his sleeve.
Here’s another, weird, example.
While I was writing this, The Mrs. walked by my secluded writing spot in the sitting room, and asked me, “Hey, want a steak?” I had a scotch already, so, that’s perfect!
“What answer do you expect me to give you?” She cooked the steak. This was a perfectly marbled ribeye, an inch and a half thick. She seared the sides, and it let out a gentle “moo” as I cut into it.
What did that ribeye cost? $12 a pound.
Why?
Well, there’s been a drought in prime cattle country. Cattle gotta drink.
The Mrs. and her brother own the better part of a buttload of land. The year before they got $6,000 for the hay. They fertilized. After Russia invaded the Ukraine, fertilizer prices spiked. They decided to just grow whatever grew and not spend the $3,000 to fertilize it.
They made $6,000 for the hay, same as the year before even though they had half the hay this year.
Sorry if that joke was corny.
For cattle farmers, growers, leaders, ranchers prices went up, but what they got for a cattle didn’t. Therefore? In March of 2023, I can get a pound of the best ribeye ever to grace a cast iron skillet for $12, whereas two Double Quarter Pounders With Cheese™ would cost me . . . $12.
This is not a hard choice.
In 2024 or 2025, though, I expect that same beef to cost double or more. I’ve been nagging my brother in law to get some cattle.
Why?
I like steak way more than the crap they serve at McDonald’s®. So, in some places, there is deflation right now.
- Houses.
- I read today that there are several projects in Vegas that just received stop orders because the financing fell through. If a project is a good idea at 1% interest and 2% inflation, it may not be a good idea while skydiving with a bag of loose change as your parachute.
- Plans that don’t have financing. In an inflationary environment, a plan that doesn’t have financing is as useful as a waterproof towel.
There’s also been a rush towards our border of illegals that are desperate to come to a horribly awful and racist country. Is this inflationary, or deflationary?
Inflationary. Illegals do take jobs that are low on the pay scale, so that strawberries are 0.03% cheaper. Is that deflationary?
Can we call Transformers® Carmen?
No. It’s inflationary. Illegals do make things like strawberries, lettuce, and cocaine cheaper, but they do actually cost about $10,000, each, for every year that they’re here for things like welfare, schools, roads, etc. So a family of five? Costs everyone at least $50,000 per year.
Where does the cash come from?
That’s the genius! We print it!
So, inflation or deflation?
Yes.
Our currency is going to zero, probably sooner than many might anticipate. What will go up? In 2023, not cows. But in 2025? Yeah, nearly certainly.
Some things will come down – I can’t predict them all. But the Fed™ will never stop printing. Their choice is this:
- Increase rates and blow up banks, the stock market, and house prices.
- Keep rates the same and blow up the currency.
The current plan.
The currency is toast. So is Biden’s chance at re-election. This time next year? I expect that we’ll see all of the above in full motion. I predicted in 2018 that 2025 we’d see a big breakdown, and I’m not betting against that now. Biden will likely go down as the single worst resident of the White House in history.
I only hope that this complete economic and societal breakdown will finally rid us of the scourge of Kardashians. At least then it will be worth it.
I don’t know that Biden’s re-election chances are toast, regardless of what is happening. Things were pretty bad last November and what should have been a “red wave” completely fizzled and a zombie like Fetterman was elected to the Senate. Most people are stupid and generally ignorant so if the people on the talking box say things aren’t that bad and if they are bad it is Orange Man’s fault? They will believe it. If $5 gas and raging inflation wasn’t enough to wake people up, what will?
Elections don’t matter. Counting “ballots” is all that matters.
I think they’ll replace him. I don’t think he’ll notice. It won’t be Kamala.
http://www.thirdparadigm.org/doc/45060880-When-Money-Dies.pdf
Download it, skim it, get a cup of coffee or a single malt and READ IT.
Plenty of useful bits you can glean from it.
Coming soon to a bank near you.
Also https://www.commanderzero.com/?p=9933 for a video of how the FDIC closes your bank.
Bonus thought, bank issued credit cards also STOP. Your debts and automatic payments DON’T.
Amazing how many generic credit cards are REALLY Bank issued. Read the back of your card to know what bank closure can screw you, blue you and tattoo you.
Truckers and stores RUN ON CREDIT. No credit, no diesel, no ordering of stock for the stores.
So having cash might *still* find you scrambling for supplies.
Got a deep larder? Got friendly agreements with that producer of a side of beef?
In Weimar Germany’s hyperinflation farmers smuggled in potatoes into cities for trade of the family silver and such. Bags of heating coal was better than gold.
Downloaded. And, trying to talk the BIL to own some beef. Quite a few tons – he says they’re very, very cheap right now.
Holy cow, John, ribeyes are still only $12 per pound for you? Not in my neck of the woods where they are closer to $14. I too love me a good ribeye, and watch their price as closely as the gas number on the corner billboard…
https://www.walmart.com/search?q=ribeye%20steak&typeahead=ribeye&cat_id=976759
Their price is headed higher.
https://agecon.ca.uky.edu/us-beef-cow-herd-lowest-level-1962
If you wanna really understand inflation and higher meat prices, check out this 1954 American Meat Institute higher-prices explainer…
https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/BAsAAOSwubtjpjSK/s-l1600.jpg
1 pound of ribeye is still cheaper than 40 McNuggets. And I know which one of those two I’d prefer.
I’m retired, which is both good and bad.
I can’t lose a job that I no longer have.
OTOH, my 403(b) savings is nearly sure to disappear – or, worse, dwindle in purchasing power due to inflation.
OTO-OH, I’m a retired teacher. That’s a favored group that will often be bailed out by government. I’d feel badly about that, but I did work for 25+ years (I’m getting a reduced pension, but also another pension in a Southern state, that also qualifies me for Social Security). And, even though the number of teachers is diminishing, there will still likely be sufficient to provide the money (although likely reduced in the size of the check).
I’ve started another job – part-time sales of health insurance. Say what you will, that’s a gig that will likely be around for a while. I get to help seniors choose among all the possible options, and get one that will be the least out of pocket for the best benefits. Also help people transition from Medicaid to Marketplace/ACA/Obamacare insurance. That’s a group that really needs assistance, and I provide good value for the commission. Right now, many people are being kicked off Medicaid, and choosing a policy that fits them is not a thing for amateurs.
Well done – you’re helping people, and helping yourself. Yeah, the dollar is dropping faster than the national I.Q. Or is it at the same rate???
“…Janet Yellin would offer to learn poll dancing if she thought it would lower inflation…”
.
Each and every election, I offer to poll dance.
Sadly, most voters seem tragically ambivalent… but, as always, I remain enthusiastically hopeful!
.
An aside:
I think a nice ‘disco’ beat could get younger feets amoving, although the mature crowd probably prefer some Pasty Cline and Conway Twitty.
.
.
I jest.
I think the best group-dancers I ever saw danced to ‘BLURRY’ by Puddle Of Mud:
https://youtu.be/xmZ8-2K2dFw
Much better dancers than I am! Also, I was thinking they were going to sit there in the start position for the whole video, which would have been a hoot.
Excuse by true CPUSA believers in the family?
Inflation is cyclical.
Jimmeh Carta 2.0 stagflation misery index shows that people do not learn anything from history.
No CBDC without 1929 style wipeout and there won’t be any vote on it.
Yup. Our “leaders” seem to not care at all about what the people want . . .
re — ‘bumblebrats working for the little people’
I get the impression they took the gig for the benefits, the connections, the retirement.
.
If, by some odd quirk of fate, they accomplished their promoted goals, they would suddenly sit, bewildered.
They would, and they wouldn’t like it one little bit.
Inflation is guaranteed, period. I’d hazard it’ll reach 20+% soon. But, after it ravages the USD, we’ll see deflation, especially in housing. Used cars will go unsold. Frivalous small businesses will shutter.
And the “nine meals” scenario will come to pass.
My teeny tiny brain does not compute the phrase ‘ “nine meals” scenario ‘. Help, please.
Nine meal scenario
Googled it although I knew it.
Best result: https://internationalman.com/articles/nine-meals-from-anarchy/
“Nine Meals” = No food for 3 days = Severe civil riots to ensue
Most people I see strolling through the grocery store could probably survive a couple of weeks without a single calorie consumed. But they don’t know that, never having gone more that 12 hours without eating. Remember the rule of threes: three minutes without air, three days without water, three weeks without food. Even if you’re caught out without anything to eat, you’ll be better off than someone fighting the crowds for the last loaf of bread… which they will then eat, if they survive, and forestall starvation by one whole day. But, they don’t know that, either.
Well, the Fed did raise rates this week, which was not what I was expecting, so, yay!
Yup. Three days.
Cattle are already heading up. Lowest prices were last fall.
Ahhh, good to know. Time to buy – I think they’re going to Moon. The herds are down to early 1960 levels.
“I only hope that this complete economic and societal breakdown will finally rid us of the scourge of Kardashians. At least then it will be worth it.”
In the words of Steven Tyler, “Dream on!”
At current course and speed, the Kardashians are liable to be the election ticket in 2024.
With the slogan, “They can’t do any worse than the last idiot!”
And they’ll be right!
You heard it here first. So when “Hail To The Thief” is replaced by Sir Mix-a-Lot rapping “Baby Got Back” as the presidential fanfare music, I win the internetz for the year.
But even if the whole Kardashian family were to win the next election, Biden will still – and always – be the biggest ass to ever occupy the White House, forever, times infinity. So there’s that.
LOL, cannot disagree, Sir.
But then again 24-07 Kardashian, OY my eyes..
Yup. The Bidens are the Worst Family.
If there is anything that suggests to me that bad times are coming, it is the fact that big industry is laying off people – yes, I know as a percentage they are rather low, but the fact that they have not done this before suggests they think what is coming is different even from The Plague.
And yes, the explosion of frivolous businesses will collapse like a punctured balloon. Which makes me a bit sad – I do enjoy the fancy cupcakes one can currently procure.
It is different. And their string of strong profits are ending soon . . . . the Zuck is out of luck. I mean he’ll still be a multibillionaire, but not a trillionaire.