Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming

John Wilder’s Civil War II Weather Report Number 1

“Yeah. There were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident.” – Anchorman

johnbrownlars.jpg

With apologies to Gary Larson, in my defense there are only so many John Brown jokes out there.

Way back in 1998, I ended up with one of the neatest jobs that I had – assessing risks to a major corporation.  The Internet was new at work, and I was being paid to research potential disasters.  It was so interesting and so much fun I felt guilty.  In researching disasters and risk, I came across Y2K.  For those that don’t remember, there was a concern that, as a result of programmers only using two digits to store year information in computers, that many computers and computer programs would cease to function when the calendar flipped over to 00.

There were multiple websites and personalities that were writing about Y2K, and one that I went to from time to time was Cory Hamasaki’s Y2K Weather Report.  Hamasaki was a programmer (he has since passed away) and he had an inside perspective of the ongoing work that was required to keep the systems working.  As a result of his insider knowledge he bought an AR, a lot of food, and spent New Year’s Eve at his remote cabin.

Obviously, the systems kept working.

spicy.jpg

Not my original.  And I’m sorry.

We live, however, in spicy times, with the potential for them becoming even spicier (I got the Spicy Time meme from Western Rifle Shooters (LINK), which really should be on your daily reading list).  I’ve written several articles about the potential for Civil War, and studied and thought quite a bit about it.  As such, this is the inaugural edition of John Wilder’s Civil War II Weather Report.  I anticipate putting it out monthly.  This first issue will probably be a bit longer than later issues, since I’m putting the framework together and explaining the background.

I’m attempting to put together a framework that measures where we are on the continuum between peace and war.  I’ll even try to develop some sort of measures that show if the level of danger is increasing or decreasing.  Civil wars don’t happen all at once, and like a strong storm, they require the atmosphere to be right.  A weather report is probably a good metaphor.

escalate.jpg

If you haven’t seen it, the guy with the trident was the weatherman in Anchorman.  And when he has a trident?  People die.

So, to review the future, let’s start by looking at Civil War I so we understand what happened, and what the potential differences are.

Civil War I was:

  • Based on philosophical differences – the views of the people, North and South were pretty similar, except that the Northerners were descended from Puritans who sailed on the Mayflower, and the Southerners were descended from the Norman conquerors that took England in 1066 but got booted out after having lost a war in England. Although the North and South were the same people, more or less, with the same heritage, there were enough differences to lead to a war.  And it was a doozy.

Civil War II is different because:

  • Certainly we are not the same people today compared to when we generally unified ethnically. Civil War II will likely be fought on the basis of conflicting culture, identity and ideology.

Civil War I was:

  • Fought by armies, mostly, with identified geographical centers.

Civil War II is different because:

  • At the early stages, at least, Civil War II won’t be fought by armies, and there won’t be defined geographical concentrations. Armies are better at killing people and breaking stuff, but irregulars are way better at atrocity.  Expect the initial stages of hot war to be filled with some pretty rough stuff.

Civil War I was:

  • Characterized by a general adherence to the rules of war, though there were some war crimes on either side.

Civil War II is different because:

  • There has been a tendency of civil wars in this century to have increasing levels of atrocity during the war. This will continue.

Civil War I was:

  • Fought with the intent of reunification (by the North), and separation (by the South). The basic desire of the North was to reunify the country, admittedly under more comprehensive Federal control.  Reconstruction sucked, but the goal was a single country.  That’s why all the Confederate statues were tolerated, and even encouraged.

Civil War II is different because:

  • I expect whoever wins to pursue a policy of revenge at the end, especially if it’s the Communists. This is founded based on every single communist revolution ever.  The end of Civil War I occurred in a growing young country with the opportunity to move West.  Now?  Whoever wins will cleanse whatever areas they take.

Civil War I was:

  • Fought by organized, elected governments.

Civil War II is different because:

  • I’m thinking that one side might be a Caesar-type leading a partial military coalition versus Leftist irregulars, but I might be wrong on this one.

I decided to see what other studies had been done about more recent civil wars, and found that James Fearon and David Laitin (from Stanford) did a study in 2003 on civil wars during the 20th Century (LINK).  Here’s what they found:

  • Civil Wars had a median duration of six years
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: 34 wars
  • Asia: 33 wars
  • North Africa and the Middle East: 17 wars
  • Latin America: 15 wars
  • Eastern Europe/Former Soviet Union: 13 wars
  • The West: 2 wars

Why do civil wars develop?  It’s my bet that political scientists are like economists – six political scientists will generate 15 incorrect theories over coffee each morning, although I, for one, have no idea why we would think we would have a more stable country if we import people who keep having civil wars all of the time.  Fearon and Laitin came up with three different types of civil wars:

  • Ethnic: “You other people suck.”
  • Nationalist: “We want our own country, because you other people suck.”
  • Insurgent: “We want to be the boss, because you suck.”

politicalspectrum.png

Okay, I don’t know who the originator was of this meme, but it still cracks me up.

Civil wars were non-existent in ethnically homogeneous and rich countries during the time period of Fearon and Laitin’s study.  As the United States was essentially ethnically homogeneous and rich during Civil War I, you can see that, just like the Revolution, something unique was going on here.  We decided to fight over principles.

Fearon and Laitin had several graphs that pointed out that increased wealth makes up for a portion of ethnic diversity – wealthier, non-homogeneous societies were less likely to go to war than poorer non-homogeneous ones.  Oddly, the very poorest ($48 to $800 a year) societies were less likely to go to war than societies that made just a little more money.  I guess just living was tough enough and going to war against other people who also had nothing was pointless.

One conclusion that Laitin and Fearon found was that civil war onset was no less frequent in a democracy.  Discrimination is not linked to civil war.  Income inequality is not linked to civil war.  Grievances aren’t the cause of civil war – they’re caused by civil wars.  What are risk the factors?

  • New nations. I guess they haven’t developed the “don’t kill the president” tradition yet.
  • People can hide in mountains.  I guess.
  • Higher (absolute) population numbers. I told you big cities were bad.
  • Oil exporting.
  • High proportion of young males.
  • Exporting commodities – risk seemed to peak at about 30% of GDP coming from commodity export.

memewar.jpg

Okay, not directly on point, but my primary export is memes.

So where does the United States stand as a country today?  I guess I’d throw out the thought that the first prerequisite for Civil War II is economic stress.  Why?  Average Joe won’t pick up an AR to go kill people in the next county if Joe has beer in the cooler and another episode of Naked and Afraid® next week.  If Joe has a job and a wife and a mortgage, well, there just won’t be action.  I meant war, silly.  Get your mind out of the gutter.  Our risk now is relatively low based on economics.

The United States is developing a higher absolute population.  That puts us at risk.

With immigration, the United States is forming a higher proportion of young males.  That puts us at risk.

State weakness is generally correlated with civil wars.  I’m torn on this one.  On one hand, we have the largest number of laws ever, along with a very large enforcement mechanism.  On the other?  Laws, both state and Federal are increasingly just ignored.  Victor Davis Hanson describes this paradox in California (LINK).

Nearby civil wars are associated with having a civil war.  Latin America is a civil war factory . . . so we’re at risk.

From the above five predictors of civil war, we have four of them.  Obviously this doesn’t tell the whole story.  The United States has a peaceful history, and, unlike a less established nation, the general populace is going to assume that today was good, so tomorrow will be pretty good, too.  And, generally that’s a good way to predict the future:  tomorrow will look like today.  Building the conditions for civil wars generally take years and what was abnormal becomes normal and tolerated as time goes by.

I’m going to attempt to try to make a metric showing the rise in various societal factors that I think might lead to civil war.  Some of the obvious are:

  • Economic metrics – economic growth, unemployment, average wealth.
  • Organized violence metrics – news of riots, other organized violence and protests.
  • Political instability metrics – use of the term “impeach”, “civil war”, “electoral college.”
  • Sites banned – numbers of political speakers silenced.
  • Number of illegal immigrants per month. This shows greater economic stress or greater problems at their actual home.

index.jpg

Yeah, you just can’t add the North and the South together and end up with a Civil War.  Unless you do it in binary, then you could have a Bipolar War?

I’ll then combine them into an index.  If you have other items that you think can be tracked and should be tracked, let me know, and I may incorporate them, especially if they’re easy find and to incorporate, because I’m lazy.

Finally, Civil War won’t show up all at once, it may take years to get people to the idea that war is better than dealing with your weird neighbor by going into your house and watching a marathon of YouTube® videos where people turn $40 of propane and a bunch of aluminum cans into $10 worth of aluminum ingots.  It’s easier than fighting, right?

Following is my take on the steps that will lead to actual civil war.  I humbly call it the Wilder Countdown to Civil War II™.

  1. Things are going well.
  2. People begin to create groups.
  3. People begin to look for preferential treatment.
  4. Opposing ideology to the prevailing civic ideology is introduced and spread.
  5. Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
  6. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
  7. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  8. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures.  Just in case.
  9. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
  10. Open War.

I bolded number six.  That’s where I think we are right now.  Violence is occurring, but it’s not monthly, so I don’t think we’re at step seven.  Yet.  And I think we can live at step nine for a long time as long as we don’t have the bottom drop out of the economy.  Might there be some trigger that takes us to nine in a hurry?  Sure.  But I’m willing to bet that we see it take a few years, rather than a few months.  My bet is no sooner than 2024, but I’ve been wrong before, way back in 1989.

This is a project where I’m not only very open to contributions of information (even anonymous contributions) I’m actively soliciting them.  Let me know if you’ve got commentary, criticism, news stories, or suggestions to make issue two (probably in early July) better, either down below or at my email, movingnorth@gmail.com

While we can’t predict catastrophic storms with 100% accuracy, it’s probably about time that someone started looking at the horizon to see what they could see.  Because I see what might be a storm coming.

Author: John

Nobel-Prize Winning, MacArthur Genius Grant Near Recipient writing to you regularly about Fitness, Wealth, and Wisdom - How to be happy and how to be healthy. Oh, and rich.

52 thoughts on “Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming”

  1. Perfessor Wilder,
    a) I think you could have a productive part-time gig with this writing.

    b) Definition is essential. The series of battles in north America 1767-86 were segments of ‘civil war’ because two or more groups wanted control of a government entity based in Philadelphia or District Of Columbia. Or ‘anyplace as long as it is government!’.

    The battles == and atrocities == during 1860-77 in the two nations known as the Confederate States Of America aka ‘The South’ and ‘these united States of America’ aka ‘the yanks’ were not a civil war.

    Why? Most folks in the south were, and are, independent self-reliant, are of Keltic heritage, and tend to be non-political. Logically and traditionally, Keltic people are skeptical of yanks because yanks consistently prove they are untrustable. Keltic people are confident in their abilities, and build community around self-reliance. Keltic people feel safest in nature.

    Compare Keltic people to the political psychopaths operating the banks aka the yanks. Many yanks trace their heritage to Dutch, Teutonic tribes, and Brits. Every thought by yanks is political, every act by yanks will always secure their political power. Their life purpose is to create artificial safety by constructing guards against the evils of nature. The yanks feel safest in cities.

    Now, let’s look at the invasions by yanks into the nation of the Confederate States Of America. The bankers required, and require, complete submission, often through complete devastation. This allows them to feel safer, although their innate fear causes them to exist in a constant state of distrust.

    As we will soon see, we have no middle ground. No treaties can stand if half the signers are mentally ill. Further, any relationship at any level is impossible with mentally ill individuals.

    A collective of mentally ill individuals is known as ‘government’. The psychopaths are skilled at using propaganda to disguise their motives, but their goal is always about safety.

    The goal of Keltic people is always about freedom.

    We have zero chance of peaceful co-existence. I’m amazed we lasted this long!

    1. https://newspunch.com/the-pentagon-say-they-are-preparing-for-huge-civil-unrest-in-u-s/

      https://www.policeone.com/police-products/emergency-preparedness/articles/225823006-12-things-every-police-departments-civil-unrest-plan-needs/

      https://www.beyondintractability.org/frontiers/risk-civil-unrest

      https://www.livescience.com/22109-cycles-violence-2020.html

      https://www.dailysignal.com/2018/12/12/the-breakdown-of-family-and-religion-explains-frances-social-unrest/

      https://theglobalamericans.org/2018/05/laying-groundwork-insurrection-closer-look-u-s-role-nicaraguas-social-unrest/

      https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/13/1-chart-every-middle-class-american-needs-to-see.aspx

      https://www.newsdeeply.com/peacebuilding/articles/2018/05/10/fragile-states-index-the-trump-effect-on-u-s-stability

        2. John, the abrogation of the rule of law as felt by the common man/woman/trans/take yer pick, can be an enormous factor in pushing otherwise civil folk to retaliatory action. No justice no peace is more than a just a rally slogan. When those normally percieved as the recipients of the benefits of established law begin chanting that phrase that will be something to take note of.

          Another factor not addressed can be summed up by something my father (a professional in the defense intelligence community) said to me while watching a newscast of cars in gas lines back in 1975. “People will tolerate waiting in line to buy gas. But if you ever see them waiting in line for food; watch out”.

          1. Yes. Waiting to feed your family shows a complete breakdown. Great quote from your father, and very true.

    2. a) Thank you! I kinda like doing it – it doesn’t really pay anything. Maybe a book . . . hmm.
      b) Yeah, I’m aware, having the McWilder ancestors. I thought the post was wicked long enough without getting into that. Your points are very valid.

    3. Most people of the South were of ENGLISH heritage, with Scots Irish a large minority. I was born and raised in Appalachia and the “Keltic” majority is a myth. Not a single county in the South is Scots Irish majority. This map shows the majority ancestry claimed by the residents of All American counties,,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Most_common_ancestry_in_the_United_States_by_county.png. There are Lots of Scots-Irish in the South, But they are not the majority. And in reality were not “Irish” ethnically, But lowland Scots and Northern English protestants from the England- Scotland border….Unlike the “Keltic” Highlanders and Catholic Irish, they were not originally Gaelic speakers either….Their Music is more English derived than Gaelic. The South as “Keltic” is not a fact. You have been misinformed..

      1. Yup, my mother’s side is a mix of both. Then throw in Danes from both sides, and I just want to invade myself.

  2. I do wish I could see what the daily Roman life was like as it was all coming apart. I mean did the shoe maker go to work, or did he start trying to locate a food and water source along with arrows? Did the soldier have enough food to keep doing his job and when the politicians said they needed to shoot civilians, did he comply? I think the military will side with the civilians, but homeland security is more like the SS, everyone will be considered an enemy. It would be good to see what happened to the civilians in those societys that have gone into civil wars at the onset.

    1. I think a lot of honest innocence perished quickly, especially when you look at recent examples like Serbia. Selco has a picture that isn’t pretty there. Do a search on him, if you’re not familiar. Chilling.

      1. The military is a wild card. Anecdotally, the lower ranks and junior officers are on the “Right” – but that is subject to change. My bet? In the opening salvo they sit it out.

        1. Lots of the lower ranks are just kids and will do as they are told initially, but once they see how people are treated, they may have reservations about their own families treatment. The lifers and Officers are a mixed bag…Some will follow orders regardless, lawful or not. Some not. While in the Navy I saw all kinds…

          1. Yeah, especially on the first run through. After people start resisting? So will some of the lower ranks. Not all.

  3. I think this article and methodology are a good start. It is my observation, from having delved into some history over the last 15 years or so, that civil wars are fought over just a couple of things: economics and politics, with both interacting with the other on a somewhat limited basis. It will be interesting to see how my observations match up with your forecasting.

    1. Thanks so much! Yeah, I’m very interested in creating the metric and seeing how it changes. The United States used to be an odd duck as to why we did things, but I think we’re becoming more “average” – and that’s not good.

  4. Great write up! A firm and relevant foundation to build upon, while tracking, trending and documenting the next Cataclysm. Some food for thought:

    https://local2455.com/featured/congolese-migrants-monitored-for-ebola-along-the-laredo-texas-border-says-official/

    http://www.theamericanmirror.com/video-first-large-group-from-africa-wades-across-rio-grande-into-us/?fbclid=IwAR2SkIRqBrJ0wEzs1sKJ1rK57_mr-UDYHf0mWUdJIYEDG_5NKDVcysZUqG0

    https://americanbordermag.com
    News right from the Border Patrol Front Lines…

    ~Cheers,

    1. Thank you for the kind words, and thanks for the links! Great stuff for next month. Appreciated!

  5. The big mitigating factor right now is that one side is openly organizing, the Left (esp. antifa) while the Right is unable to do so and unwilling to do so due to pressure from employers, law enforcement, etc. Many people on the Right are anonymous on the internet, talking a big show about “let’s kick this thing off” while doing nothing and that is the extent of their participation in public. Sure they are stockpiling guns and ammo and food but right now they have no public presence. Antifa typically runs amok at will and nothing happens, but any decent size gathering of people on the Right is next to impossible. At some point the disincentives won’t be enough and people on the Right will start to gather in meatspace because threats of doxxing and calling your employer because you were at a rally won’t be enough anymore.

    I really want to encourage people to shift not only where they live but what they do for a living to insulate them from backlash for naughty speech. Having a great 401k plan isn’t going to mean much if the cities are burning and you can’t get away. Don’t get trapped by your job so that you are afraid to speak. Anonymity has played an important role in political speech for all of American history but at some point you have to come out of the shadows, speak your mind and let the chips fall where they may.

    1. “while the Right is unable to do so and unwilling to do so due to pressure from employers, law enforcement, etc. ”

      I guess you base this opinion on what is made public. Groups like “antifa” are media cherade, patsy groups. The copy cat ones …patramilitary extremists that take the term, are few in between. Most of the right, are already trained, belong to organized groups of like minded and equally trained ( NRA, Hunting Clubs, Outdoorsmen, etc ), AND many have begun quiet preps and extra get togethers over the years as a result of the public brandishing of the antifa . They just dont go out in public thumping their chest and showing it off……

      1. I would say that is a complete misreading of the situation. Whether screeching feminists or black lives matter or antifa, far left agitators are able to assemble at will and can organize a mob with minimal effort. Try getting 1000 people on the right to assemble and not have it blow up. Charlottesville was a legally organized attempt to have a political rally and the left showed up in force with far more people who proceeded to attack the right-wing marchers with the overt assistance of the police. The aftermath has been completely spun in terms of Heather Heyer so that almost everyone thinks that the Unite the Right rally was a violent demonstration by the right instead of a violent counter-protest from the left. Little groups of guys prepping in the woods are fine but that is a far cry from thousands of people publicly protesting on the left.

        1. Public demonstration grabs headlines, media sways opinions and viewpoints, government enforces concepts and ideologies of those “wealthy” enough to buy their acquiesence.

          The bright-and-shiny facade of this sandcastle called society is as permanent and secure as super-tall 80’s-hair in the path of an approaching super-cell.

          4GW is not just studied by government wonks, nor does it take years of studying Sun Tzu or Machiavelli and applying it to the current situation.

          If Bubba or Joe or Harvey reach the point where they feel there is no benefit to themselves in keeping the electricity, fuel, food, water or traffic flowing to those they feel ARE benefitting from their 40- or 60-hours-per-week they work, maybe a monkey-wrench finds its way into a gear at an inopportune moment.

          Just-in-time an on-demand are great concepts and work well with willing participants. They’re very flashy, like thousands of activists gathering like magic in the streets.

          But remember the crack-head bum that set those fuel-oil drums on fire under the freeway in Atlanta?

          http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bridge-collapses-atlanta-freeway-fire-during-rush-hour-n740871

        2. Good points. It should also be remembered that unless a black swan event happens (Yellowstone blows, Carrington event, Madrid fault slips, etc.) power will go to those who control the cities after everything settles down. Yet most of those on the RIght who consider themselves “badass” all seem to plan to run for the hills at the first sign of trouble. Those thinking they will come back to Right Wing Utopia like in all the post-apoc novels will be disappointed… especially after they get rounded up for re-education by whoever wins.

    2. And that’s why I never miss one of your posts! Great stuff. And welcome, Florida Watchman!

  6. This is an interesting article , But no one is looking at the overall picture.
    Most of the United States history is from the struggles of a new nation, What we have today is the real first battle for survival of our Nation. There is no Right or left, all of this is just a dog and pony show.

    We need to look back just a short time for proof. How soon we forget the late Senator J MC Cain selling us out for Obama care. Just look at Republicans who turn their backs on the people since then. Now we have open socialist in government and worse. We have the TSA, homeland security, state and local government, so called private firms that know our every move, hell even some local fire departments have devices that can see into your home what do you think the government can do ? Think people we have smart TV’s , smart Appliances , Alexa ,etc. can and does collect data on you.

    You have people like Alex Jones, and all the rest of the doom and gloom crowd shouting about the Bilderbergs , Sorros, Turner’s of the world all the while shouting buy my storage food, buy my Prepping supplies. The aforementioned people are just the front men for the real power behind this crazy stage show.

    How soon we forget the Iran contra scandal when our own government brought drugs into the country, but yet we were having are war on drugs ironic huh. Now no matter witch side of the border issue you fall on the fact remains that this is an invasion period, no matter how you look at it . I have friends with the border patrol and if the American people knew half of what was happening they would not sleep.
    All of it I mean all of it is just a show, you can call it the New world order, you can call it good or evil, call it what you want. But all it boils down to is the people who control all the worlds money want to control you. I will leave this here because I don’t feel like writing a book today, but I will give you one of my favorite movie quotes.
    Don’t piss down my back Senator and tell me it’s raining.

    1. Good thoughts, Captain, we have had two versions of the same club leading us forever. I’ve noticed that they never seem to want to do anything, just talk, while the ship keeps sailing the same direction.

  7. Great new site. On my fav list now. Re: CWII; it will likely be, imo, around issues such as gun confiscation. That’s a trigger issue that will get average joe off the couch for sure. If that happens, there will be many body bags w/ supposed LEO corpses in them. If the leftist ‘authorities’ bring in antifa types to enforce actions against patriots, conservatives, and other ‘just leave us alone types,’ then the SHTF big time. (Who else are they going to recruit; certainly not the computer geeks in their mom’s basements). If the socialists and communists in so called ‘govmint,’ CANNOT disarm the american population, then they will not fare well and they probably know that. Hence, their pushing to disarm everyone that has any kind of military level weaponry. Resistance to disarmament is crucial, esp creeping disarmament via so called ‘red flag laws.’ These allow anyone to be targeted by a disgruntled neighbor, co-workers, etc and poof, your guns are confiscated. Very dangerous and insidious trend by the leftists as a preclude to CWII.
    WARDOC

    1. WARDOC,
      Yes, that’s been the historic reason (I think) that the United States has been (mostly) internally peaceful, all those men with all those guns.

      I’m hoping it stays that way, but I’m not convinced it will.

    2. “gun confiscation. That’s a trigger issue…”

      Which is exactly why it will never happen. The Left will do an end-run around it, like they did with the AWB. Sunset provisions so people think it will go away, grandfather clauses, a slice at a time. Our elites are masters of slaughterhouse design, made so the animal doesn’t feel panic even up to the point the bolt stunner is being put up to our foreheads.

  9. Oh gee golly I am sorry , that I did not post in professor like term’s . Or maybe it was the fact that you think I ignored what you wrote, I did not. In fact I expanded on our thought process as to the real game afoot and it’s just to scary to face.

    There will most likely be some sort of civil disturbance , but you cannot put it in any kind of terms. It will be whatever fit’s the narrative at the time it is enacted. This will be to further the agenda that is in play. I say you have to think like the opposition study their plays past , present, and future to gain any insight. These people on the lower end do not think in any rational manner and the one at the top tier only think of what they will gain , never realizing that they don’t matter in the grand scheme of things.

    What I wrote earlier may have seemed like ranting’s of not to smart person but if you really think everything I wrote is dead on. But I digress , It’s people like you that find the truth very bitter to taste and more than often than not choose to not post written words of some one who makes you face reality by bashing those of your kind and ilk.

    I did read and like your post but as I said you choose not to post my comment and that’s ok , because it’s people like you and all the others that act like you are so much smarter and better than other’s. I dare you to shed your chains ,grow some testicles forget about all the chicken little of the world .

    This was written just for you to see, this was my first time seeing your blog and the last. You are just another liberal in conservative clothing. It’s really sad that your just one of the many doom and gloom boys that have no balls of their own.

    1. Captain, I think (I’m guessing) it was the word “piss” that hit the auto-moderator, which doesn’t bother me much in 2019. I was at work and couldn’t approve it since I have to have my laptop to do that.

      You’re more than welcome here.

      I’ve only deleted one comment in this blog’s history, with the exception of actual spam in foreign languages. I’ve left some spam up that seemed to almost make sense.

      And, I assure you I’m not of the Left.

  10. Q: Have you considered as a metric the slide from Liberty to not-Liberty? If the water boils slowly most do not object. Tipping points come when there are inflection points.

    Notice Twatter and Faceplant are SLOWLY turning the screws. Their test case were Alex Jones, Milo and some others.

    1. They certainly picked up speed today. It’s scary how fast they moved. I guess an election’s coming and we can’t have people doing too much thinking.

      Absolutely I’ll try to cook up a liberty metric.

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  12. Liked the article! Just some random thoughts and resources I’ll throw out:

    Peter Turchin’s book, “Ages of Discord”, is worth the look. He argues that national stability primarily is the result of two factors: labor oversupply and elite overproduction. Labor oversupply is simply that there are too many people for the number of jobs, resulting in depressed or stagnant wages and living standards for the workers. This is more likely to create a situation of rebellion than civil war, however, as I understand Turchin’s thesis. Open borders and large scale immigration has obvious implications for the potential of labor oversupply, and Turchin is pretty clear that it was only when increased labor violence in the early 20th Century started to threaten the elites that caps were placed on immigration. Caps that were removed in the 1960s.

    Elite overproduction is related to the number of people that are competing for positions of power. Turchin seems to believe this is the most likely to create a civil war because these are the people that can gather and organize resources and followings necessary to join into a conflict to seize power. Essentially, if the disaffected elite cannot obtain positions of power peacefully, they will seek to obtain it through other means.

    Obviously, this short summary doesn’t capture the nuances in the book; and I’m not sure that Turchin’s book captures the full story because he doesn’t consider the possibility of a breakdown of social order due to other factors. For instance, Joseph Tainter’s book, “The Collapse of Complex Societies,” suggests that societal collapse can occur if a state has reached a point of complexity such that additional complexity (requiring additional investments of energy, money or other resources) offers no marginal utility or a negative marginal utility, and the state is hit with a shock (e.g., war, natural disaster, famine, etc.)–it simply won’t, in such circumstances, have the excess resources to deal with the shock, and it will “collapse”–that is, devolve until it reaches a stable form or, in some cases, completely collapse. Tainter is discussing the breaking up of states, but the process of breaking up often looks like civil war (with the last century or so of the Western Roman Empire providing a good example). The United States has long been seeing a declining marginal utility for dollars that it has invested in the military, scientific research, education and so on. In fact, I would argue that the United States has moved into negative marginal utility in some respects: for instance, I was just reading recently a study showing that Common Core educational programs were worse for students than if nothing had been done.

    Finally, there is an element that you mentioned of groups taking positions that another group or people “suck.” Or, as I see it, of two or more populations holding irreconcilable values and standards. For this, I would suggest the book, “The Evolutionary Psychology Behind Politics.” Simply put, however, is that as a nation increases in prosperity, the number of people motivated by “liberal” or “socialist” urges will increase, and they will exhibit and seek to impose behaviors that are antithetical to prosperity and increasingly opposed to conservatives. And then “the gods of the copybook headings” return.

    1. Docent, bought the Ages of Discord. Looking forward to reading it. Obviously, I own Tainter, because Beavis and Butthead would have giggled over his name. I’ll hit you up on the Evolutionary book. Or hit me up on e-mail.

      Thank you.

    2. IIRC, Tainter’s point was that once a nation passes the point where marginal utility goes negative for increases in complexity, the nation becomes less able to deal with problems. it’s not that the decreases surplus causes the collapse, its that the nation becomes less able to deal w/ problems. For example, he said it is foolish to do like so many historians do, analyze all the problems Rome had and then argue which one caused the Fall. It is foolish because all those problems had existed throughout Rome’s history; the real question is why did those same problems cause a collapse when they did, but not long before.

      From our perspective, the relevance might be that as our government has less and less of a surplus it will be less able to deal with societal unrest, changing the ‘risk v. reward’ calculation of those contemplating drastic action.

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    1. I will guess that the Free Stuff Army will find a police state perfectly okay so long as they continue to get their Free Stuff. So long as the druggies can get their “legal” dope (how long will it be before they want you, John Q. Taxpayer, to pay for their “human right” to get high?) and the pervs can get their “gay marriage” and “adopt” little boys to molest.

      And it’s not like any such “police state” laws will be enforced equally. Guns will be confiscated but only from Whitey, not from Antifa, not from the imported Third World street gangs that the Left considers to be paramilitary auxiliaries.

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  17. Great article.
    Best CW predictions I’ve ever read though was Thomas Chittum’s “Civil War 2”, PDFs of which can be found on the internet.

    1. I have it, and am going through it (though I didn’t when I wrote this). It will certainly be featured in future weather reports.

      I’ve not finished, but it’s great stuff.

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