TEOTWAWKI Part X: Gump, Wheat, and Chill: Now With 100% Less Netflix

“No, Wayne, 25 megatons of wheat.” – World War III (1982 TV Movie)

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Okay, he’s been frozen, had his butt sore from bike riding, and shot.  I hope he likes wheat.

This is part ten of a multipart series.  The rest of them are here:  (Civilization, The Iron Triangle, and YouCivilization After an EMP: TEOTWAWKI (Which is not a Hawaiian word)TEOTWAKI Part III: Get on your bikes and ride!Internet Cats, TEOTWAWKI Part IV and The Golden HordeTEOTWAWKI Part V: Camaro and Camo,  TEOTWAWKI Part VI: The Rules Change, The Center Cannot HoldTEOTWAWKI Part VII: Laws of Survival, Mad Dogs, The Most Interesting Man in the World and TEOTWAWKI Part VIII: Barricades, Tough Decisions, and Tony Montana) and TEOTWAWKI Part IX: Home at Last, and the Battle of the Silo.

The story to date:  Our resourceful protagonist was hundreds of miles from home the night in February when an EMP hit, taking with it all of society.  He’s bicycled and walked and made his way home. Upon arriving at home, he was drafted into the Watch, which was tasked with protecting his hometown, Millerville.  Millerville attacked a grain elevator south of town, with enough grain to feed the town for four and a half years.

The Silo, 7AM, Five Days after EMP

The bullet had gone into my left shoulder.  There was a burning sensation, and then the blood.  The strangest thing, I thought, was that it didn’t hurt more.  But what it missed in pain, it made up for in blood.  I’m not sure what the bullet hit, but there was a lot of blood.

I passed out.

I woke for a while – in and out of consciousness.  It was mainly when people were moving me.  There was a lot of yelling.  At one point I was in a golf cart.  I think.

Eventually I woke up in a hospital bed, surrounded by Coleman® lanterns and the hiss of the pressurized fuel that fed the flame in the light.  There were three other beds around me with injured people, I assumed from the raid on The Silo.  I noticed my right arm was hooked into an I.V., and a nearly empty I.V. bag was suspended above my head.  My right arm was held in place by Velcro® straps, I guessed to keep me from moving it.  I tried to move my left arm, and a bigger pain than I’d ever felt in my life lashed out from my shoulder.  I’d say I screamed like a little girl, but I’m pretty sure that most little girls couldn’t get the volume I had.

A nurse, the mother of a kid I’d coached in PeeWee basketball, showed up.

“Awake, I see.”  She smiled.  “I’ll go get the Doc.”

She left and walked back in with Dr. Walters.  He’d been in town for only a decade, so he was still a newcomer.  “I see you don’t duck very well.”

Normally, that would have been funnier, but my shoulder still ached.  I managed a chuckle.

“I’m pretty happy with the work I did on you.  I haven’t done surgery since Med School, but,” he gestured around, “I don’t seem to have much competition right now.  Your shoulder was hit, but that’s probably obvious right now – we’ll get you something for the pain.  The good news is that I think you’ll have a lot of motion after it finishes healing.  The bullet hit the bone, but bounced up and out.  I repaired it as best as I could.  You’ll never be as strong on that side as on the other.”

He continued, “You’re really lucky.  There are about five different supplies I ran out of during your surgery, that I have no idea when I’ll get more of.”  He paused.  “Thanks for feeding us.  The Silo was important.”

I’ve read that there’s an African language where the translation for “good” means, literally, “has food.”  That the food from The Silo would feed us for years, while we figured out how to feed ourselves was important.  Where would we be in thirty years?  No one could know that.  But today we could eat.

And today I could see my family.  I’d been gone for days, sent out to acquire The Silo, and now I wouldn’t be doing anything for a while until my arm healed.  They rolled my hospital bed into a private room.  My wife and sons were allowed in – they’d been waiting outside since I was brought in.

“So, dad, did you kill anyone?”

I know it was meant with youthful excitement of a thirteen year old, but it hit me deeply.  I’d fired off into the darkness, attempting to shoot at the muzzle flashes of the guns that were pointed at me.  For the first time in my life, I wondered if I had killed someone.

“I don’t know, son.  I really don’t.”

“Well, they say you’re a hero.”

My wife gently brushed my hair.

“Who is they?”

“Everyone!  I heard it from Timmy, who heard it from James.  Everyone in town is so happy!”

I forced a smile, “I’m just glad to be with you guys.  And,” I gestured with my hand towards my shoulder, “I think you’ll be stuck with me at home for a while.”

Lieutenant Brady stopped by while the family was there.  Instead of his regular police uniform, he was wearing the same SWAT team outfit he had been when we’d taken The Silo.

“Mind if I come in?” I waved him in.

“Glad to see you’re awake,” he continued.  “Glad to see you’re alive.”  He seemed uneasy.  “We lost a few out there – and every wound and loss will weigh on me.  But there’s good news.  Nearly every city around here has their own silo.  There’s plenty of food for everyone, so no reason to fight about that.  And we’ve developed a loose network for defense and information, because the cities are still draining.

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“One nice thing is that all of the towns are really fairly easy to defend.  Most of them have some sort of natural barrier and only a few roads in.  I guess,” he chuckled, “that most of these towns were founded when an Indian attack was a real possibility so they were set up with defense in mind.  Never noticed that until now.  Ours is in an even better position.  We’ve got at least three towns between us and any big city.  We’ll know they’re coming.  But you, go home and rest.”

Going home was wonderful.

The house was like a freezer.  Natural gas and pilot lights and central heating was gone.  It was March.  Running water was a distant memory, and to the extent we had water, it was brought up in five gallon buckets from the pond for flushing, or brought up from the creek and carefully filtered and disinfected for drinking.  Things that soon disappeared?  Coffee.  Propane.  We had plenty of wheat.  And as a treat, one night a week we’d have some of the dehydrated food I’d had around the house for camping.  The dehydrated food would run out soon, but we’d have plenty of food, as long as we liked wheat.

Margo, my wife, had started gardening, as had every wife in town.  Every third day a farmer would stop by and tell us what we didn’t know – how to keep the deer out of our garden.  How to keep the moles from digging into the potatoes.  How to keep chickens.

Yes, chickens.

They were becoming very popular, and spreading rapidly.  You don’t have to kill a chicken for the eggs, and eggs were a wonderful surprise when you were just expecting yet more wheat the next day.  I heard a rumor that people were going to be able to get milk from a communal herd of cows, but you had to milk the cow yourself.  Butter!  Cheese!  If we could figure out how to make it.  And without Netflix® and PlayStation™ there were a lot of card games and board games after chores.  And a lot more fun under the covers at night with my wife.

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The dark side of the new world was no information.  As a society, we were used to knowing the sex of the Queen’s great grandchildren and watching the birth live on CNN®.  Now?  We heard what we could, either from the bulletin board downtown or gossip from neighbors.  I was pretty sure that China would be “supporting” the population on the West Coast.  Alaska?  Either the Russians or the Chinese probably had moved their stuff in already.

The suicides were the most demoralizing.  It surprised me how many people were so tied into Facebook® and Twitter™ and the conceptions of what their lives would be that they couldn’t imagine a life without the constant information flow and distraction from the media they consumed.  And tobacco and drugs were gone.  Alcohol and weed?  Not so much.  You could turn wheat into a really bad beer or an even worse whiskey.  Weed grew like, well, weed.

But no one cared about weed.  The illicit alcohol was frowned upon since it took food to make it, but everyone had some at the dinner parties.

And that was another winner – neighborhoods were neighborhoods again.  We got together on Friday nights to have whatever wheat-based dish was popular this week, some eggs, and some moonshine.  I heard a rumor that someone was growing tobacco with success.  I had conflicted feelings about that.  But of vices, if people were having a cigar or a chew or a cigarette?  Far better than many I’d seen.

Life was good.   Were we ready to defend it?

North of Yona, EMP +45 Days

Former Corporal Walt Davis, late of 1st Platoon, Charlie Company, surveyed the defenses of Yona.  They were in pretty good shape, all things considered.  The first few days after The Event, as his troops called it, was chaotic, but good for the platoon.  They had taken over a few small towns in quick succession, killing those that opposed them, but offering opportunities for the towns to surrender and offer up what the Platoon wanted, which was liquor, ladies, and food.  Not wheat, that was everywhere.  Steaks.

The Platoon also offered up membership to anyone who wanted to join, provided that they pledged allegiance to Walt.  This didn’t happen much on the first few towns, but after their reputation spread, they’d show up at a town and find that there were men lined up not to fight them, but to join them.

What started off as 25 soldiers had been as many as 100, which wasn’t bad, except that now it took four times the liquor, four times the women, four times the fuel.

It had been easy, except for that last town.  Everything had gone well at first.  They’d presented their women, as ordered.  Their booze.  But in the night, they’d been attacked, drunk off the booze, and attacked by the women themselves.

Walt had lost 43 men.  In retaliation, he’d blown up most of the town.  By the time they left it, what was left of it was just smoke in his rear view mirror.

But now he was . . . here.  Where ever the hell that was.  On the ridgeline, he scanned the town below.  Fixed defenses on the road, but nothing a half mile to either side.  This would be easy.  They simply hadn’t learned.  Walt was willing to teach.

He smiled.  Yona.  Stupid name name for a town.

### (for now)

We’re getting near to the home stretch.  Probably only one or two more of these in this series (at most).

In real life, I’ve had conversations with people about “the end of the world.”  The latest one (he brought it up) was that preppers were silly.  People like him, with guns, would come and take the preparations from people who didn’t fight for them.  He lives pretty far in the backwoods, but close enough to Dallas that he’d have tons of new friends moving in with him before he ever got to take away everyone’s stuff.

Another guy (who lived in Alaska) had the idea that he’d move into the backwoods with two fat women.  He also indicated that eventually, after he got hungry, he’d only need one woman.  Yeah.  Icky.

I don’t think that either of those are exceptional plans in the event of an emergency.  The situation I’ve sketched out over this series is probably too good to be true in many ways, but, I swear, the food part is based in reality.  In much of the Midwest, more food than you could eat in years is available.  In some places, the food is even more plentiful than sketched out in this story.  In others, like California or the East Coast, fighting over food will start whenever people run out of Nacho Cheeze® sauce.

While on my weekly tour of the Internet, however, I found this (LINK) excellent article on preparing and becoming (more or less) self-sufficient in food.  It’s not easy.  It won’t happen overnight.  So you need to have food on hand or a reasonable way to get it, and not food for an afternoon, but months, or more likely a year or more.

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And people are the double-edged sword.  Too many and it’s just a horde.  Too few and you don’t have enough people and skills to provide food and defend yourself.  If I were going to make an error?  Yeah, fewer people is better than too many.

Progressive Public Education, The Thing, Stalin, and a brief visit from Jesus.

“That’s the plan. As long as America’s educational system remains woefully inadequate, I rule!” – 3rd Rock From The Sun

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Ahh, The Thing.  What better metaphor for American education?  I really liked the Peanuts® version:  “It’s The Thing, Charlie Brown.”  If only they had kept Snoopy© away from those Norwegians!

I had a crazy fever dream.  That The Thing wasn’t the perfect movie.  Spoiler:  It was.  But then I had a great idea:

How about . . . we abandon government public schools?  What if, at age 18, we simply gave each child $20,000 a year for seven years, about what it would take to educate them?

Sure, I know that the common name for these schools is “public schools” but the time when they were really public schools ended about 100 years ago when John Dewey was stirring up trouble and became the founder of what is known as Progressive Education.  I’m sure that’s just a misnomer, right, and he’s as American as apple pie?

He wrote, per Wikipedia:  “Impressions of Soviet Russia and the Revolutionary World (1929), a glowing travelogue from the nascent USSR.”  Yeah.  American.  Not at all socialist or fixated on communism. I’m not alone: another view of Dewey is here (LINK).

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Dewey wasn’t really interested in education, he was more interested in molding students.  And, oddly, children have been the same-ish for, oh, the last 300 years.  But what worked for George Washington and Thomas Jefferson apparently had to be changed so we could have a Charles Manson.  Hmm.

So, let’s look at the things we’d get rid of if we got rid of government public schools:

Eliminates school as a dumping ground:  How many kids don’t graduate?  In California, it’s 77%.  Wow.  That’s lame.  In New York, it’s 81%.  If you can have between a quarter and a fifth of the students not graduate, how important is it?  And if you dig deeper into the statistics, many of the “graduates” are indistinguishable from smart fourth graders in 1880.

Eliminates school as a substitute prison:  When I was growing up, if you talked without raising your hand you would get electroshock therapy and 50 cc’s of Thorazine® until you drooled.  Subtle, but effective.  Now?  Actual assault against teachers doesn’t (in many cases) result in suspension.  Unless it’s suspension of the teacher.  It’s also true that many students also have a shadow career as international assassins because they cannot be punished except by James Bond.

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Eliminates school as a financial blight:  Right now, teacher pensions are huge.  Here’s an example, from that fine state of fiscal restraint.  “Over the next three years, schools may need to use well over half of all the new money they’re projected to receive to cover their growing pension obligations, leaving little extra for classrooms, state Department of Finance and Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates show.” That story can be found at (LINK), it’s from this year.  Imagine if unemployment weren’t at all-time lows?  And the cost of schools goes up . . . while the quality of education . . . goes down.  There are way to many “goes down” jokes for me to make, so make your own.  Don’t share.

But schools teach a lot of junk.  One of the things that has been a big deal over the last 20 years is “incorporating technology.”  This goes hand in hand with “banning cellphones in class.”  You don’t have to teach kids technology.  They get it.  You have to teach teachers technology so they can keep up with the kids, which is a losing proposition.  Example:  The Boy configured the computers when he was in school during third grade.  He got in a fight with a substitute teacher who wouldn’t allow him to touch anything.  Pugsley?  He is regularly tasked with tech support.  For his entire school.  He started that when he was in sixth grade.  Kids know tech.  You don’t have to teach them.

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Reintroduces money into the community:  There would certainly be lots of businesses lining up to help these newly rich 18 year olds figure out what to do with their money.  So, lots of new tattoos, blue hair, and weed.  Like every college campus.  Whatever.  I still pay the taxes, but I skip hearing about all the drama.

Dis-incentivizes welfare parents to make more kids:  If you had to watch every kid you had, if you were responsible for their education?  You’d make fewer kids.  Because they’re exhausting.  And you couldn’t fight to get your kid who is just a jerk designated as ADD so he can get zombie medication and extra stuff . . . so you don’t have to see him as much.  If you had to deal with jerk kids that you couldn’t pay for?  You’d not have, well, any.  Let’s pop the incentives so people who can’t take care of kids . . . don’t have them.

Can do 95% online – Faster:  Outside of shop class, physical education, flirting in the hallways and giving that nerdy, smelly freshman a swirly, you can get 95% of the curriculum online.  And the teachers that do that stuff, especially under what I’m now calling the Wilder Plan®, will be some of the best teachers of the millions of teachers in the country.  Even poor parents have the Internet, and lots of this curriculum is nearly free.  But, oh, my, parents would have to be involved and follow up, daily.  Or not.

Eliminate stupid deadtime:  We had a family friend who was home-schooled.  He did most of his work in less than three hours a day.  We haven’t done that with our kids.  I have regularly (in the past) heard about my kids watching movies in classes.  Do we need to pay for a multi-million dollar building with state of the art technology to watch . . . The Little Mermaid®?  No.  I could see it for Clockwork Orange™, but not The Little Mermaid©.

Eliminates school shootings:  Gun rights or education – which one is in the Constitution?  Eliminating Government Schools doesn’t require a Constitutional amendment.

Forces parents to parent:  It takes a village . . . to tell you to get to work and raise your own damn kid.

Forces Government Schools to become . . . Public Schools:  Schools become smaller, part of the community again if they can get support.  The one room schoolhouse worked.  The school board was small, local, committed, and tied into the school.  A high school of 3,000 kids?  Why?  How is that even human scale?  Is it a forced course in dehumanization?  Why do we wonder why kids get nutty?

Education can be better – it doesn’t have to force feed an education-industrial complex:

Can enforce real rules:  Without the Government School label, you can . . . kick kids out.  Parents have to become responsible for their children’s behavior.  If they can’t find a true public school that will take them?  They’re responsible.

Can enforce real learning:  Funding is from parents.  They will demand results.  Like in a capitalist system, bad schools will die.  Good schools will thrive.  And we can have education that fits the kids.

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But what about?

Sports – Nothing has to change.  We have stadiums.  We have teams.  We can have them play as clubs.  Friday night lights?  Still burning.

Socialization – Again, schools can exist – but they don’t have to have the force of government behind them.

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Prom – It sucks.  It’s expensive and silly.  Have one if you want, but don’t tax me for one.

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Poor Kids – Society has come through for them, again and again.  Not government, but society.  And this is true – the cream will rise to the top.

Okay, I liked my time in public schools.  Because when I went there they’d kick you out for bad behavior.  And we didn’t have many of the societal issues we face in big cities today.  America became an ascendant economic power before Dewey.  Maybe we can bury him.

Or burn him with fire.

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18 Life Lessons I Learned Coaching Kids Football That Matter to You

“I look at you and I see two men:  the man you are, and the man you ought to be.  Someday those two will meet.  Should make for a hell of a football player.” – The Replacements

FB for dummies

I actually did buy a book on coaching which was pretty helpful – the first year it was helpful to the other team. 

It was August.  It’s hot here almost every August, but that’s to be expected since I haven’t been able to move into a mall so I could enjoy a constant 72°F temperature with ambient lighting and strangely inoffensive Muzak® versions of Ozzy Osborne’s Crazy Train.

No, no mall for me.  As I stood there in the blistering August sunshine, I was surrounded by the cream of the crop of football athleticism in the county ready for their first practice.

I began my speech:

“You may think you have known tough in your life, but I assure you that within the next few practices you will endure pain and hardship like you’ve never known.  You will become killing machines.  You will learn to revel in the annihilation of your opponent.  You will desire nothing more than to utterly devastate him just so you can go to sleep with the memory of the sounds of the lamentations of his mother bringing a smile to your face.”

One of the players raised a hand.

“Coach Wilder, Momma wants to know if she could bring cupcakes to the practices.  For after.”

Okay, so they were third and fourth graders.

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And I didn’t really say that.  I did, however tell them this:

“Our first game is on the first Wednesday in September.  We have exactly nine practices – that’s 18 total hours – before the first game.  We can’t afford to miss a single minute.  If you’re late to practice, take a lap.  If you miss practice and it’s not excused by me, you may not be able to play.”

I know it was only PeeWee® football, but this wasn’t my first year coaching.  I’d helped as an assistant coach for The Boy.  Now he was playing school league football in junior high, and it was Pugsley’s turn to be on the recreation league team.  And after my rookie head coaching effort the previous year, I was determined to do better.  I was worried about the press from ESPN® – they can be brutal, especially after I’d signed that huge contract that stipulated I got a free cookie every game.  If I bought them for the team.

Bill Parcells, former Super Bowl® winning football coach, said, “You are what your record says you are.”  With the previous year’s team, we were 3-5.  We were not great, even though I had the very best pair of running backs in the county.  Our record was my responsibility.  And that’s one of the reasons that people use sports metaphors – sports is clean.  “We were a great team” doesn’t really cut it.  We were a 3-5 team.  That’s not great, unless you’re the Cleveland Browns©, in which case it’s purely amazing.

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The other nice thing about sports is that it’s well defined and immediate in a way that’s different than a lot of things in life.  There are the rules that determine the way the game is played.  The field is the boundary on where it’s played.  And both teams will show up Saturday morning at 10AM.  You know when it’s going to be played.

There are no excuses.  There is no gray area.  And due to league rules, every team has exactly the same number of practice hours available to them.  The difference?  How you use them, and I felt I could do better than 3-5.  I had to protect that contract.

Our first set of practices were intense, but mainly intense for the coaches – we were looking to see who had talent, who had speed, and who had heart.  And, frankly, we were a bunch of dads, not an NFL® coaching combine.  I knew about most of the kids, but one big surprise was a gangly young kid who could run.  We put him in at tight end, even though he didn’t know much about football.

I had a plan for every practice until that first game day.  I handed out rules to all of the parents.  I handed out schedules of practices to my assistant coaches, with the practices broken down minute by minute and what we were going to cover each day along with the plays we were going to install, and when we were going to install them.  What, do you think third grade football is a kids’ game???

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I love clever plans.  That’s why when I find one, I steal it.

It finally came down to game day.  With third and fourth graders, a coach was allowed to be on the field, and I was with my offense.  Our first game was away – at the biggest rival our town had.  The game had gone back and forth, and we were up by 5 points.

The opposing coach took a time out.  His last time out

I was puzzled . . . why?  It was second and six.  No real reason, right?

I couldn’t see the scoreboard – so I asked the official.  “How much time is left?”

“One minute, fifty seconds.”

Holy cow!  I had no idea that the game was that close to being over.  I went back into the huddle with the team.  “Guys, if we make this first down, we’ve won the game.  Think we can do it?”

“Yeah!”

They did it, on a nice little off tackle run to the left side of the field, by my tight end.  Three plays later . . .

We won!

And we kept winning until we were 5-0.  Most teams we were beating by 30 points or more, and we were able to get every kid lots of time to play.  The next game, we were up against that team we had played first.  I walked out onto the field with the team.  They seemed . . . flat.  Really flat.  Over confident.

Right before kickoff, I said:  “Guys, if you don’t take this seriously, you’re gonna get beaten out there.”

Beaten wasn’t the word for it.  They got destroyed.  Which was just what they needed.  Because of that loss they got hungry again, but lost a close game the following week.

I didn’t lie to the kids or try to make it sound good.  We had one game left, and our record was 5-2.  If we lost, the team that we were playing would go to the championship game.  If we won?  We would play for the championship.  It was simple.  Parcells would have been proud of my honesty.

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Bill Parcells, robotic football mastermind.

The game was back and forth.  As halftime approached, we were down by 14 points.  We had thirty seconds left.  Our team managed to get four plays off in that thirty seconds, and we came away with eight points.

But now momentum was on our side, and we got the ball back in the second half.  We scored on the opening drive and never looked back.  We were going to the championship, because the kids were what their record says they were.  As coaches we just helped them find it.

I learned a lot coaching youth sports.  Why is this post on Wealthy Wednesday?  Because I think that what I learned pertains directly to productivity and focus, which should add to your bottom line in anything.

Lesson 1.  If you’re the coach, know what the score is and how much time is left.  It’s what your players expect.  If you’re in charge of something, know how it’s doing.

Lesson 2.  It’s easy to be a jerk parent if you don’t know what the coach is going through.  I’ve been a jerk parent in the past.  Heck, I’m still a jerk parent, but now I at least know when I’m being a jerk parent.  Know when you’re being a jerk.  It makes being a jerk that much more enjoyable.

Lesson 3.  I am totally faster than almost every third grader in town.  Over a short distance.  If I have a head start.

Lesson 4.  Keep kids busy and occupied during practice – no dead time.  Why?  Kids want to work.  They want to be engaged.  They want to contribute.  They want to get better.  When they’re just standing around, none of this is happening.  As a coach, it’s your job to help them to understand how to get better and how they best fit on the team.

Lesson 5.  Be honest with your team.  They know when you’re not.  Telling them a pretty lie ends up with them losing all respect for you.  Even a third grader can look up at the scoreboard and see if they’re winning or losing.  Honesty matters.

Lesson 6.  Know that there is a deadline built into the game.  There’s one in life, too, even when it’s not apparent.

Lesson 7.  Skip stretching.  Third graders don’t pull muscles.  Me?  I need to stretch – I could snap a kidney getting out of bed.  Spend your time where it’s appropriate.  Don’t spend time doing things only because everyone else does it.

Lesson 8.  Don’t be overconfident.  Paranoia is your friend.  It helps you prepare.  It drives you to see your weaknesses.  It drives you to improve every little detail you can.  And it explains why your neighbor watches you mow the lawn, taking notes the entire time.

Lesson 9.  Be ruthless on small infractions like being late to practice.  Then big infractions don’t happen.  Getting the little things done, and done right, matters.

Lesson 10.  It’s a game.  It should be fun.  Corollary:  games are more fun when you win.  Life should be fun, too.  Second corollary:  If you always win?  Boring.  There have to be stakes worth playing for.

Lesson 11.  When you lose?  Learn from it – very few people learn from winning.  Thankfully, you will lose.  Winning is more fun, but the right loss with the right lesson might be more important for your future.

Lesson 12.  Laugh at your own mistakes when you make them.  Unless you’re a surgeon.  That’s kind of a bad time to do that.  Laugh later if you’re a surgeon.  Or a bodyguard.  Or my lawyer.

Lesson 13.  The number of hours and minutes before the season is over is set on day one.  Make the most of them.  Assume the number of full moons and sunsets that you get to see are limited, too.  Make the most of them, but not in a middle-aged lady “YOLO” way.  We don’t need another one of those movies – ever.

Lesson 14.  Every drill, every practice, every game – start with the end in mind.  Focus on the goal.  Every day, every task, every job at work.  Focus on the goal.

Lesson 15.  The end result is up to you as a coach or as a player.  Or as an owner.  Sure there are bad breaks.  Tons of reasons that you can explain away failure.  “You are what your record says you are.”

Lesson 16.  Third graders suck at throwing and catching.  Keep it on the ground.  Play to your strengths and against your weaknesses.  Don’t expect your players to do things they can’t.  Don’t expect the poo-flinging monkeys you work with to write Shakespearean sonnets while doing calculations involving quantum mechanics.  Not going to happen.  Work to the things they’re good at.  Like poo-flinging.

Lesson 17.  A PeeWee© season is short, less than 8 weeks long.  You have to make every minute count.  How is that different than life?

Our team made it to the Championship Game.  Except they didn’t call it that.  They called it the REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF THE NFL© game at the end of the year.  Yup.  Rhymes with “Uper Rowl.”

We were warming up, and our star tight end who had been a great player all season and often scored two or three touchdowns a game . . . was hurt.  His ankle wouldn’t allow him to play.  I talked to his grandpa.  He said, “There was no way he wasn’t going to suit up for this game . . . .”

As we ended up the first half, we were up by a touchdown – a good, tightly played game.  I hate those – I like blowouts.

We got the ball first in the second half.  Our first play, like every single one of our offensive plays that game, was to the right side.  The left side had fallen asleep.  I ran a reverse to the left, the one where our tight end normally carried the ball.  But this time, the backup tight carried the ball.  When he got to the end, there was nothing but green, open field to the end zone.  After that, we could score at will.  They were broken.  There is nothing better than outsmarting a defense consisting of third and fourth graders into utter confusion.  Oh, wait . . . that sounds bad.

When we had a nice buffer, we substituted deeply – we put lots of kids in positions they’d never played, just for fun.  When it was about 20 seconds left in the game, I called a timeout.  We were up by 21 points.

In kid football, a referee will refuse to grant you a timeout if he thinks you’re being a jerk.  I looked at him.  “Trust me.”

The referee looked over to the sideline and saw my injured tight in hobbling onto the field.  He understood.  He wouldn’t allow the timeout, but he made sure that the clock allowed for one final play so the tight end could get in for the big win.

winning

We had won the REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF THE NFL© game.  I’m just glad I didn’t let them down.

Lesson 18.  Be faithful to those that helped you along the way.  It will make your utter betrayal of them later even more sweet.

TEOTWAWKI Part IX: Home at Last, and the Battle of the Silo

“We see our role as essentially defensive in nature.  While our armies are advancing so fast and everyone’s knocking themselves out to be heroes, we are holding ourselves in reserve in case the Krauts mount a counteroffensive which threatens Paris or maybe even New York.  Then we can move in and stop them.  But for $1.6 million, we could become heroes for three days.” – Kelly’s Heroes

kelly2

I remember watching this movie as a kid.  Clint Eastwood – cool for 20% of the history of the United States.

This is part nine of a multipart series.  The rest of them are here:  (Civilization, The Iron Triangle, and YouCivilization After an EMP: TEOTWAWKI (Which is not a Hawaiian word)TEOTWAKI Part III: Get on your bikes and ride!Internet Cats, TEOTWAWKI Part IV and The Golden HordeTEOTWAWKI Part V: Camaro and Camo,  TEOTWAWKI Part VI: The Rules Change, The Center Cannot HoldTEOTWAWKI Part VII: Laws of Survival, Mad Dogs, and The Most Interesting Man in the World and TEOTWAWKI Part VIII: Barricades, Tough Decisions, and Tony Montana)

The story to date:  Our resourceful protagonist was hundreds of miles from home the night in February when an EMP hit, taking with it all of  society.  He’s bicycled and walked until he’s on the final stretch home, 12 miles away, 100 hours after the EMP.  He was sleeping in a parked car at a road barricade of the next town up the road from his home when a bullet passed through the window.

The Highway Outside of Yona, 6AM

I’ve never been a light sleeper.  When I sleep, it’s heavy and deep.  And since the night before I’d spent most of the night crouched under a tarp attempting to avoid getting wet and dying of hypothermia, I was about 20 hours behind on sleep.  But the sound of breaking glass followed by the crack of a rifle is a pretty good alarm clock, especially since the passenger window was the one I was sleeping under in the Xterra.

I popped open my door and slid out, staying as low as possible.  I felt relief that the interior light didn’t come on – and I crouched behind the car.  The bullet had come in the back window, and out the passenger window.  There weren’t a lot of angles that fit both.  I talked to one of the men manning the barricade:  “Hey, he’s shooting at us from that direction.”

Then in rapid succession – a flash of light, the sound of a bullet hitting the Xterra’s body, and the report of the gun.

The commander of the barricade shouted, “Aim for the muzzle flash.  Don’t fire until I call for you to fire.”

Another flash/bullet impact/report.

The commander asked, “How many have the area in your sights?”

“Yes.”

“Sure.”

“Got him.”

About six of the men responded they were sighted in.

“On my count, fire.  Three . . . two . . . one . . . fire!”

Six rifles sang out.

FLASHTWEET

By ROG5728 CC BY-SA 3.0 from Wikimedia Commons – Comments by Wilder 

No more flashes came.  Whether the shooter was hit, killed, or scared, I couldn’t say.  But there were no incoming shots.  But I was also fully awake.

“Guys, this is probably a good enough time for me to go.  It’s still over an hour to sunrise, but the full moon will give me enough light to get to road I’m taking home.”

That was at least a little bit of a lie.  I’d been thinking as I went to sleep that following the roads was officially stupid.  But trying to bushwhack every bramble covered patch of field and tree creek was also officially stupid.

But there were also railroads.

The trains were now gone, but the railroads had been in this area for over 100 years.  And railroads were very flat and bridged every little creek.  The distance from ties wasn’t perfect for my stride, but it was nice – on one or both sides there were trees that obscured my silhouette for almost every step I took.  When that wasn’t the case?  I scampered.

Sure, I was near home.  That didn’t mean that anyone watching might not want to shoot me on principle.  I knew I looked like I was sneaking, since I was.  But it was certainly better than the road, and I was making great time.

And I missed my wife.  I missed the kids.  The closer I was to town, the more fear rose in me – were they okay?

I hit the town about noon.  No one was guarding the railroad in.

Soon enough I was walking past the train station down the street towards the center of town.  I looked grubby, but it was great to be home – to walk by Taco Shack®, to see the (now empty) liquor store, and even the rest of the closed businesses.  It wasn’t long before two cops on a golf cart pulled over in front of me.

“Are you from town?”

“Yes, I just got back.”  I explained my trip.  The cops seemed a little surprised that it had gone so well and so quickly.

“Let’s see your stamp.”

“Stamp?”

“Yeah, the one the guys at the barricade gave you?”

“I didn’t cross any barricade.”

“Then how did you get in to town?”

“Walked in on the rail line.”

The cops looked at each other with the expression I assume I have on my face when I ask my family to help me find my glasses and they’ve been in my hand the whole time.  “Crap.  Okay.  Let’s see your ID.”

After reviewing what I assumed would be the last picture ID I’d ever own, they took out a piece of paper and stamped a star on it and wrote the letter “C” on it.  It was a self-inking stamp.  Then one of them signed it.

On the back was a list of rules:

  1. No looting. No stealing.  All looters and thieves will be hanged.
  2. No murder. A murderers will be hanged.
  3. All able-bodied men must take part in the Watch.
  4. All able-bodied men must be armed when out in public.
  5. Review the Board daily for updates.
  6. Curfew dusk to dawn for those not on Watch.

“Go home, get cleaned up, see your family.  Then report back to be assigned to the Watch.”

“Back where?”

“Oh, yeah – the county courthouse.  Nice building – designed before electricity – almost all of the offices have windows.  Check in on the first floor.”  The cop paused, “And welcome back.”

Most days I walk out the door to work and walk back in after work, and nobody even gets up.  Today was different.  As I walked down the last stretch of gravel road that led to my house, the front door flew open and a thirteen year old boy sprinted toward me . . . “DAD!”  He hit me with enough force that both of us sprawled over the winter-dead lawn.  His seventeen year old brother wasn’t far behind, and then I saw my wife, crying, running to see me as well.  Soon enough I was being roughly hugged and kissed in a pile on the grass by everyone in my family.

“Ooof, get off!”

I rolled over and got up.  I’d never felt so welcomed in my life.  Hand held by my wife on one side, and with my shoulder being pulled down on my right by my thirteen year old, we walked into the house.  I sat down at the dining room table dropping my backpack near the door.  I was surprised to see three rifles and a shotgun by the door.  I was also surprised to see my seventeen year old had my .357 magnum revolver strapped to his hip.

My wife put a cup of hot coffee in front of me – I could see our propane camp stove in the kitchen.  I told them my tale, holding nothing back.  They looked a little shocked – there had only been a little bit of violence here, one carload of kids from the next town over.  And the Town Council had been pretty benevolent but paranoid, my seventeen year old thought.  I finished my coffee.  I wondered how long we’d have it until we ran out . . .

After cleaning up, I went down to the courthouse.  My seventeen year old accompanied me, and we both slung rifles – me with my old hunting rifle and he had a semiautomatic AR pattern rifle.  Oddly enough, the old courthouse rules said that I couldn’t carry a gun inside.  After the EMP?  I was required to.  There was a short line for the Watch – a couple of gentlemen looking to swap watches.  The clerk wrote the swap down.

“I’m here to register for the Watch – I just got back into down.”  The clerk, who used to take payments for car license plates, took the paper the cop gave me.  She raised her eyebrow.

“Hmmm – looks like you’ll be in C-Watch, per the request of Officer Brady.  Um-hm – Well, you can meet with C-Watch.  Tonight . . .” She scanned the paper, “. . . at dusk, here.  It says to prepare by wearing dark clothes, and bring a liter of water and . . . at least twenty rounds of ammo.”

“You’re lucky, Pop.  C-Watch does interesting things, not just watching the barricades.”

We went to check the Board.  B-Watch, which my son was on, had been split into two.  One part was going to watch the rail lines coming in from the north.  His name was on that team.   Looks like the cops paid attention.

We went home again (yet more walking) and had dinner.  It was the last of the steak from the freezer cooked over propane in the kitchen.  It was amazing.  And then it was time to report.

Dressed all in black, I felt like I should be sneaking with John Belushi in Animal House.  I had my rifle and thirty more rounds of ammunition, plus the water.  There were a few candles in the courthouse, and in the dark it was nearly dazzling.  It’s amazing how a little light shines in the darkness.

“Tonight we’re going to assault the grain elevator at Star.”  It was the cop who gave me the ID with the star on it.

Star was a little railway siding about six miles from town.  I was in a group of about forty men.  All of us were similarly aged.

“I know that all of you are competent, and will do your jobs.  What we’ll do is march down to Star, surround the grain elevator, and then take it by any means.  Any means.  Let me explain to you the importance of that grain elevator – we know, since everyone who works at the elevator lives here in town, that the elevator is full of grain.  Well, not exactly full, but nearly 75% capacity.

“Let me make this clear.  In those grain silos is enough corn, wheat, milo, and soybean to feed everyone in town 2,000 calories a day for the next four and a half years.  We’ve been through a lot, but four and a half years will give us time to figure out how to farm like it’s 1799.  Now, the elevator is in the possession of some punks from down south who just showed up and shot the night watchman last night.  No more than a dozen of them.”

Four and a half years of food.  Stunning.

foodmeme

Our leader, Lieutenant Brady, outlined the basic plan.  We’d split into four 10-man squads.  I was in Squad 2.  He used a whiteboard to show our positions.  Squad 2 was to set up along the intersection and provide covering fire as Squads 3 and 4 advanced alternately toward the office.  Squad 1 was to be held in reserve to fill in as needed for either of the other three Squads.

The objective was to take possession of the elevator by dawn.

I’d saw we marched, but we didn’t.  We walked the six miles to the elevator.  The Moon started to rise after about two hours of walking.

Lieutenant Brady set up the Squads, and personally led Squad three as they began leapfrogging into position.

Our job was simple – when Brady said “fire” we were supposed to fire a steady stream of staggered shots at the front door.  No more than one a second, one every two seconds would be better, but continuously.  And sequentially.  The idea is that anyone inside the elevator would be so distracted by the steady streams of bullets that they’d stay low.  When Brady said, “clear” we were to stop.  Simple.

We got into position and took cover in the ditch.

I took careful aim on the front door.  I’d picked a rifle with open sights – I figured it would be much easier to use than one with a scope at night and with the idea that I’d need to be able to swing it quickly.

I was right.  Soon enough the assault began.

“Fire!”

We fired.  The window shattered.

That’s when the shots from our right started – shooting at us.  Brady wasn’t there, but I’m pretty sure he would have wanted us to defend our position.  We did.  We swung our rifles and started shooting back.

Two of our group kept the fire going at the front door, covering Brady.

As Brady yelled “clear” – the other two members of the squad joined us in firing at the group that had been shooting at us.

There hadn’t been return fire for a minute or so . . . so when Brady yelled “clear” again all the firing stopped.

Except for the bullet that hit me.

### (for now)

I was out hunting one night and I had lost my daughter.  She was hunting with me.  It surprised me that she was able to get lost at the age of 13 in a piece of land that was half a mile on a side, but she did.  When it hit dusk, I shot my .30-06 into the ground hoping to give her a direction to go to.  What amazed me was the huge eruption of flame – greater than 10 feet – that came from the barrel.  Rifles without flash suppressors are bright in the night – which is why the military pays for flash suppressors.  So, muzzle flashes are real.  And they can be visible for long distances.  Oh, and my daughter showed up, and I seem to be unable to lose her now – she has my number and everything.

And nighttime vision is important.  When I was starting fires (in the fireplace!) as a kid I’d try to light as many places along the newspaper as I could with the match.  My Dad looked and said, “Three on a match – that’s unlucky.”  Then he told me the story that it wasn’t really unlucky – it came from World War I when soldiers would light cigarettes.  If you lit three cigarettes on the same match, well, that gave the German sniper plenty of time to find you and shoot you.  Which I would call unlucky.

Railroads will be ignored early on in a sudden catastrophe, but provide a great way to move from place to place to the extent they don’t parallel big roadways.

I love it the most when I do my blog and learn something.  The food storage was my biggest surprise.  I actually called elevator operators to see what their inventory would be in February.  “Definitely would be at least 50%.  Probably closer to 75% full.”

moveelevator

This shocked me – the common theme for TEOTWAWKI in a sudden collapse is that calories would be king.  And they would be in New York.  And they would be in California.  But here in the middle of the country?  This is where the food is.  Real answer?  We’d have years of food if we could keep it.  Years.  The biggest concern would be the food going bad in storage.  Where we live?  Maybe work on preps other than food – since we seem to have massive amounts nearby.  I’d guess that within a thirty mile radius we’d have enough food for 100,000 people for four and a half years – so we could afford a doctor or two.

I mentioned this to a friend because the conclusion surprised me so much.  “So, the optimum time to attack the East Coast and population in February, during a blizzard, is the exact time where all of the food is stuck in silos in the Midwest.  I’ve never read this anywhere.”

His response was the same as The Mrs.:  “You’re not the first to figure this out.  I’m sure the military figured this out in 1952.”

Sure.  But no matter.  I still feel good about figuring that one out.  Oh, and there are tons of cows around.  Literally.  We might be the only area on the continent to gain weight after the end of the world.

Guess marketing the End of the World Diet will have to wait.

The Future of Humanity: Galactic Empire, PEZ-Driven Starships, and Girls Drinking Beer

“Far back in the mists of ancient time, in the great and glorious days of the former Galactic Empire, life was wild, rich, and, on the whole, tax-free.”  – Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy

pezpieceofaction

This is what happens when you don’t pay your PEZ® bill – they send in the enforcers.

I had a comment from James Dakin in the comment section the other day that really made me think, which is as painful as it sounds.  James runs the excellent blog Bison Prepper (LINK) and is also a prolific author – he’s got bunches of books on Amazon.  His comment was especially nice, because it made me realize that from the outside this blog might look a little, well, schizophrenic.  In one post I’m talking about a future American Civil War, and in another I’m talking about A.I. taking the place over.  What I realized after the comment and stepping back is that in many of these posts what I really do is look at alternative futures.  I try to do it in a dispassionate way.  I’ll not live to see lots of the things I’m predicting, and, like your mom’s butt, hope not to see some of them.  No rational human being wants to see another Civil War, but yet the possibility of that next Civil War exists, and is growing every day.  Also like your mom’s butt.

So, this comment made me step back and realize what I’d been building over time with many of my posts – a range of predictions or projections of alternate futures, which fits in well with the purpose of the blog – these are big picture thoughts – really big picture – it’s harder to be bigger picture than “what is the ultimate future of humanity.”  I then outlined what I’ve written so far, and realized I had gaps about futures I hadn’t talked about.  Those missing alternate futures will be the subject of a few Friday posts from time to time.  I’ll end it up with a capstone piece where I dust off my crystal ball and determine with amazing exactitude the likelihood of any of these futures taking place.  I won’t be doing these every week – I’ve got too many other topics I really want to get to, but I’ll finish eventually next year.  Thanks for the comment that made me realize this, James!

None of these futures is set, but some are more likely than others.  For those playing the home version of our game, you can make your own scorecard out of moist Post-It™ notes, coffee creamer cartons from the break room and green Sharpies®.  Oh, and you’ll know when to use the thumbtacks.

Today’s future is . . . Galactic Empire.

Galactic Empire is the future we’ve all been told to expect, or at least were told to expect when the Soviets were making East German women as feminine as Bruce Jenner.

pezeastmeme

See, the East German women’s gymnastics team looked no different than the US team. 

Galactic Empire encompassed strong men leading gleaming starships to rescue scantily clad women from danger in sixty minutes, at least weekly, and daily in re-runs.  But the idea was older than that.  Going back to the pulp magazines of the 1920’s to the 1960’s, Galactic Empire wasn’t just a plywood set – it was manifest destiny.  Humans were designed to go out into that, ahem, “Final Frontier” and make everything safe for democracy, even if we had to defeat the Space Nazis®.  Yes, there were always Space Nazis® – I think Hollywood was never satisfied defeating Germany just the one time.  The end result of all of this striving and endless Nazi-vanquishing is that humanity ends up with planetary homes on dozens to thousands of worlds.

pezstmeme

When Space Nazis® take you prisoner, they turn up the heat and make sure you’re shirtless and as sweaty as your mom at a paternity test.

Why would we have a Galactic Empire?

Mankind has, for all of the history that we can find, been in an expansion mode.  Bands grew into tribes which grew into nations which grew into kingdoms which grew into empires.  It’s hardwired into us.   And part of why it might be hardwired into us might be the desire to spread our genetics as far and wide as we can.  As individuals and as cultures we have a primal need to for continuity – I want my grandchildren to take my genetics, my ideas, my values into the future.    And space is vast – what wonders await us?  How many places can we set up little paradises in space?  Will there be hot green chicks from Orion?

We’ve even categorized what these Galactic Empires look like – and a Soviet was the one to do it.  Nikolai Kardashev came up with the scale in 1964, and came up with three categories:

  • Type 1 – Harness all the energy hitting your home planet.
  • Type 2 – Harness all the energy from your star.
  • Type 3 – Harness all the energy from your galaxy.

We’re type zero – we haven’t managed to harness every bit of energy hitting the Earth.  Physicist Michio Kaku has stated he thinks we’re 100-200 years out from this goal.  I think he’s just making that up with no particular backing.  Just because Michio has a good handle on theoretical physics doesn’t mean he can even run his cell phone, let alone project civilizational development across centuries regarding multiple complex systems, cultures and projected technological progress.  Oh, wait, he lives in New York.  They know everything.

What’s required for a Galactic Empire?

  • New Physics (Maybe) – You can move across the galaxy within the span of a human lifetime. It’s actually conceptually not that difficult at all.  Just move really, really fast.  The faster you move, the slower that time moves (for you).  Light takes 100,000 years to cross the galaxy.  You could do it in a dozen years.  I’ve even calculated how fast you’d have to go:  Very close to the speed of light.  How close?  Within 10* miles per hour of the speed of light, which is 186,000 miles per second.  And if you did it in that 10 year span, 100,000 years would still have passed on Earth.  At least Blockbuster® is out of business so you don’t end up with the largest return fee in history.

blockbuster

Spoke too soon!

  • Excess Energy – Starships require energy – vast amounts. The starship (weighing a mere 80,000 pounds at rest mass) above would require 19X1024 Joules* of energy to get up to speed.  Sounds like a lot?  It is.  It’s the entire energy equivalent of every barrel of oil produced on Earth this year.  For the next 34 million* years – or enough oil to fill a hole the size of New Mexico a mile deep*, or almost enough to cover Kim Kardashian’s butt.  It’s a scale that’s incomprehensible to humans.  There is literally NOTHING I can compare it to so it makes any sense.  And that’s just the fuel.  It would still need oxygen to burn in space, unless they left the vacuum off.
  • Back to New Physics – Just about every movie that deals with space travel uses warp drive or worm holes or some sort of jump drive. Why?  Space is just too large and requires astonishing amounts of energy.  Does this physics exist?    Mexican physicist Miguel Alcubierre has set the (mathematical) groundwork for a . . . warp drive.  He said was inspired by Star Trek™.  Really.  The way the warp drive works to move you quickly across the universe is simple – you cheat.  You shrink the space in front of your ship, and stretch it behind your ship.  It’s like running a forty yard dash in one step.  See?  Cheating.

pezship

Here is what warp drive might look like.  Really.

  • Willpower – NASA (pronounced naaaay-saw) originally produced more enough rockets for three more missions to the Moon. They got cancelled when Congress saw a shiny new car they wanted to buy.  The follow on Mars mission slated for that distant future of 1991 was cancelled when the nuclear rocket engine was cancelled.  We have to wait for Elon Musk, I guess, I know that he and his rockets can both get high.
  • Economic Surplus – To invest in space requires a civilization with sufficient extra productive capacity, I mean, someone has to dig out New Mexico to store the oil. All kidding aside – a sustained program for spaceflight and technological improvements would be required lasting at a minimum for decades.  And more likely the program would have to last for more than a century.  And I can’t keep my attention in one place long enough to . . . oh, a bird.

*I really calculated those numbers – they’re not made up.

Why we might not have a Galactic Empire.

  • Space is hard. Every time we look space gets more complex.  Huge speeds.  Massive amounts of force.  Complex systems that all must function.  Then you add in long term effects of weightlessness on the human body, and the hard radiation that our life-giving Sun blasts out into the Solar System.  The good news?  I keep all my stuff on Earth.
  • Space is not politically popular. I remember reading a magazine that was geared towards construction, I picked it up one day at an office.  There was an editorial cartoon showing the space shuttle, with the obvious background showing that we needed to spend more money on . . . sewers.    Everybody wants those dollars.  And, I’ll note that for years now the United States has had zero ability to put people into space, instead relying on Russian technology that is more or less Vietnam-war era.  Also like your Mother.  Oh, wait, she really might be that old.

pezmoon

This was an actual cartoon just after we landed men on the moon.  Buzzkill!

  • That warp drive thing – it may depend on stuff that may not even exist. Exotic matter?  Negative energy?  We have seen no clues that this stuff even exists.  So maybe Roddenberry was just all about the ladies and spinning a good yarn.
  • Energy requirements are vast. Unless the warp drive thing is real, well, we’d have to come up with an alternative propulsion system.  Say . . . PEZ®?    We could create a PEZ© drive.  But for it to work, we would also need to create ANTI-PEZ™.  ANTI-PEZ© is just PEZ™, but made of your normal, garden variety anti-matter.  Unlike pesky oil, when you mix a PEZ™ with and ANTI-PEZ™ they annihilate each other, turning their mass into pure energy.  The good news is that for our starship example above it will only take 110* years to make it at the current PEZ™ production rate of 3,000,000,000 PEZ™ per year.  So, that’s 55 years of PEZ™, and 55 years of ANTI-PEZ™.  I suggest we do the PEZ™ first, since we have absolutely NO idea how to make ANTI-PEZ™.  Note that in this example, I’m assuming we don’t have to transport the mass of the PEZ™/ANTI-PEZ™ with the mass of the ship, and that the PEZ™/ANTI-PEZ™ reaction is 100% effective in adding energy to the ship.  These aren’t outrageous assumptions given that I’ve just postulated a spaceship powered by PEZ™.  Also?  No way to stop the ship other than hitting something.  And when you’re travelling at 99.99999712%* the speed of light?  That might leave a mark.

PEZ

pezstfuelmeme

  • Timescales are vast. So, unless we spend vast amounts of energy, it will take years.  And years.  And that doesn’t seem like our Galactic Empire at all.

It’s not that a Galactic Empire is impossible, it’s just not horribly likely at this point.  Who could go without PEZ® for 110 years???

*Again, real numbers.  I really did do these calculations because it amused me to turn PEZ™ into a starship propellant.

What other alternatives that get us into space without a Galactic Empire?

All of these are potential ways to get into space.  Note that we might have colonies, but we’d never have foreign exchange students or a Death Star®.

  • Seeding – We could send starships filled with stuff to make babies out to new planets. And then?  Planet run by toddlers.  Definitely need to send PEZ™ with them.

 pezfeldmeme

PEZ® – it can make or break a career.

  • Von Neumann Machines – We could send self-replicating robots out into the universe. They stop off at a new Solar System and build copies.  And so on.  Even NOT going much faster than 10% of light speed, in half a million years, these machines could be at every solar system in the Galaxy.  We haven’t seen them . . . so it’s unlikely they’ve been made.  Are we alone?
  • Generation Ships – We could send out vast habitats that support life for the thousands of years that it would take to move from one solar system to the next. Hopefully, in a thousand years the civilization didn’t go all Space Nazi, but I’ve seen enough TV to know that it’s 100% certain they will.
  • Space Tupperware – We could freeze ourselves (if this is possible) before shipping out. Downside?  Freezer burn.  Imagine cooking a 1000 year old steak.  Now imagine BEING a 1000 year old steak.
  • Digitized Human Consciousness – We could digitize a human consciousness and send it into space! No food, no boredom, and it could go see other solar systems.  Dunno about you, but for me this has all the excitement of shooting a Playstation IV™ into space with a copy of Red Dead Redemption 2.

Sadly, the future sold to us back in the day seems to be fairly unlikely.  I’ll rank it against the competition in a future post.  The bright side is that we won’t have PEZ™ shortages for the next 55 years.  Until the killer robots develop a taste for it.  Or until the Civil War breaks the factories or . . . OH, since this is a post about the future of humanity, I almost forgot – it has to have a picture of Oktoberfest girls.  Silly me!

oktoberfest

The Ant, The Grasshopper, Tim Ferriss, and Ben Franklin.

“Do you want ants? Because that’s how you get ants.” – Archer

grasshopper

Thankfully I’m not alone.  Stupid Grasshoppers.

There are occasions when a simple question can punch you in your gut like a rabid Mike Tyson reacting to a paper cut that you just poured lemon juice on.  Here’s a question that hit me last week:

“What do you do with your money?”

“I keep it in the bank.”

“Then why do you do so many things you dislike to earn more of it?”

The above quote is from a conversation between Tim Ferriss (an author with an unusual fondness for the letter S) and Ryan Holiday (I’ve mentioned him before) –you can read the rest of the article here (LINK).  Holiday puts this exchange first in his piece – it’s pretty powerful, so powerful that it might even relate to issues we face as a country – not that I’ll solve those.  That sounds like it would be hard.

Working is good for you.  Producing value is good for you.  It says so right on the label.  But I worry sometimes about money being my goal instead of a way to allow me to work toward my real goals.  When I lived paycheck to paycheck, I was fixated on money – as a single dad with little savings, it was tough.  Did I focus on fulfillment?  No, I focused on keeping enough money in my bank account so I could pay the electrical bill, which is why it was 40°F in the house in the winter and 85°F in the house in the summer – air conditioning was for closers, and the kids were awful about closing.  Mainly awful about closing the window, but I digress.

coffeecloser

I had Alec Baldwin give the kids a speech about cleaning their room.  He fired them, but only after they cried.  But Pugsley got a set of steak knives.

When you’re in that condition, life is about that struggle for money.  I remember we’d eat Kraft® Macaroni and Cheese™ on the nights we weren’t having Hamburger Helper©.  On really good nights, we’d have actual hamburger in the Hamburger Helper©.  If an expense wasn’t absolutely required?  I’d avoid it.  Oil changes?  Why would you do that, there’s still some in the car?  What do I look like, a Rockefeller?  Stitches?  That’s what Super Glue® is for.

At that point in my life I viewed money as the end.  Everything was about making more of it or saving what I had.

When I really think about it, maybe the only common value we have left as a country is this secular religion of chasing money.  It’s like the old fable of the Grasshopper and the Ants, where the Ants work all summer to store food for the winter, but the Grasshopper uses a leveraged buyout to get money to buy the mortgage to the Anthill from the bank and bulldozes the Anthill to put up a Starbucks®.

Okay, that’s not the way the fable ended.  The first time I saw the Ant and the Grasshopper, it was the 1934 Disney® cartoon version.  They showed it at school on a field trip because movies are easier than teaching.  The end of the movie version of that fable had the Ants inviting the Grasshopper into the Anthill for the winter, provided that the Grasshopper played music for them and voted for FDR.  I was a horrible child – six year-old me thought the Ants were just incentivizing negative Grasshopper behavior and I thought he should have been left out in the cold.  Why?  Because even at age six I was heartless.

I would have enjoyed the original fable more.  In Aesop’s version, the Ants work all summer, and the Grasshopper plays all summer.  When it comes time for winter, the Grasshopper comes begging from the Ant, and the Ant tells the Grasshopper to die in a fire.  I find that a bit more satisfying than the Disney™ version, but I guess Disney© didn’t like the idea of having a cartoon turn into Silence of The Grasshopper where the Ants eat the Grasshopper with some fava beans and a nice chianti.  It could be that hordes of traumatized and crying six year olds isn’t good for business, unless you’re a therapist.

Thankfully, if the story of the Grasshopper and the Ant were real and happening today, the Grasshoppers would form a Grasshopper PAC and would vote in a pro-Grasshopper Congressbug that would immediately introduce legislation to tax the unfair profits of Ants.  Additionally, the Grasshoppers would also denounce the Ants for the culture they created that was the source of all that wealth.  It’s only fair, right?

Me?  All kidding aside, for most of my life I’ve been an Ant.  Working huge numbers of hours to try to provide for the family, build up some financial resources for the future.  Some years I worked in excess of 3,000 stressful hours to provide for the family – that’s an average work week of over sixty hours, every week for a year.  Some people work even harder.  The kicker?   There’s an alternate view of the Ant:  some felt that the Ant isn’t always the good guy, that his very industriousness was driven by the love of money.  In the words of dead-guy-with-a-comic-book-worthy-name-from-1690, Roger L’Strange (I swear I didn’t make up that name) about the Ant (spelling and capitalization in the original):

“Vertue and Vice, in many Cases, are hardly Distinguishable but by the Name.”

In L’Strange’s oddly capitalized view, working too hard was itself a vice.  The poor Ant can’t get a break – everybody wants his stuff, but now he can’t even work hard without people piling on.

But L’Strange was right.  Maybe I worked too hard.  And maybe I am too stunningly handsome.

benedict

Okay, he’s not L’Strange, but Dr. Strange is cool.  And Benedict Cumbereberbatch Bandersnatch Cumberdoodle plays him well.

But the Ant and the Grasshopper might be the one fable that encapsulates the American dichotomy.  Are you a spender, or are you a saver?  Something tells me there might be another way.

There is a very important role of money in a free market economy.  It gives incentives for behavior that fills the needs and desires for others.  It’s a scorekeeper – resources flow to those who best used them to create economic prosperity.  It’s a rationing system for goods and services that doesn’t require the hand of government to make it function.  There are some pretty negative roles of money, too, but I’ll skip those for this post.

There is a way to be neither Ant nor Grasshopper.  If you’re working hard and understand why you’re working, that’s a start.  Paying bills is important, but trading your life away for dollars is really selling your soul.

benfranklin

As Ben Franklin said, “Dost thou love life?  Then do not squander time, for that’s the stuff life is made of.

And I don’t think Ben was talking about the magazines Life and Time.  If he was, I guess that makes the quote stupid instead of powerful, and it’s unlikely that Ben read either Life or Time, since he spent most of his time on his phone or watching Netflix®.

The powerful question remains and is really a restatement of old Ben’s comment:  “Then why do you do so many things you dislike to earn more of it (money)?”

I’m blessed now to be able to view money is a means, not an end.  The results of the Tyson punch?  Spleen ruptured.  Thankfully it’s not something serious, like having to examine my life choices . . .

TEOTWAWKI Part VIII: Barricades, Tough Decisions, and Tony Montana

“Yeah.  That’s right.  Infiltrators came up illegal from Mexico.  Cubans mostly.  They managed to infiltrate SAC bases in the Midwest, several down in Texas and wreaked a helluva lot of havoc, I’m here to tell you.” – Red Dawn

tough-times

Tough times.  Oh, sure, they make you strong, but I’d much rather have donuts.

This is part eight of a multipart series.  The rest of them are here:  (Civilization, The Iron Triangle, and YouCivilization After an EMP: TEOTWAWKI (Which is not a Hawaiian word)TEOTWAKI Part III: Get on your bikes and ride!Internet Cats, TEOTWAWKI Part IV and The Golden HordeTEOTWAWKI Part V: Camaro and Camo,  TEOTWAWKI Part VI: The Rules Change, The Center Cannot Hold, and TEOTWAWKI Part VII: Laws of Survival, Mad Dogs, and The Most Interesting Man in the World )

The story to date:  Our resourceful protagonist was far from home the night in February when an EMP hit, taking with it all of the society and the plentiful PEZ® it has provided.  He’s bicycled and walked until he’s on the final stretch home, 20 miles away, 83 hours after the EMP.  He’s already lost six pounds.  So if you were looking for an upside for the end of the world?  Your pants won’t be so tight.

The Highway Outside of Yona, 1;30PM

As I got to the stop sign at the main highway, I found myself for the third time in three days staring down the barrel of a gun.  This time an AR variant.  And as I looked to the left I saw another man pointing a deer rifle at me.  The rush of adrenaline didn’t stop me from noticing that both men had their fingers on the triggers of their rifles.  And that there was a dead body off to my right.

“Where you headed, spear-boy?”

“Millerville.”

“Not this way, you ain’t.”

In a movie he would have spit on the highway to make his point – a huge wad of tobacco juice.  He didn’t.  In fact, he didn’t look happy about being here at all.  He looked like an accountant.

But I looked over at the makeshift barricade that they’d thrown together – several cars with sandbags out in front.  They’d arranged them so they completely blocked off the highway, but it looked like they could move two of them to open it up, if they had to.

And the man who spoke wasn’t anything special – he was my age, a full three days’ worth of beard, dressing what looked like bowhunting camouflage, a bit too tight, as if he’d bought it a few years ago and hadn’t used it.  As I took in the barricade in front of me I counted about a dozen people who were pointing their rifles at me, not just the two I’d first seen.  Even though I’d come around a blind corner where they’d been concealed by the trees, they obviously had someone continuously watching that approach.

“Hands up, and drop the spear.”

I complied.

“Alright.  Good.  I’m tired of shooting people who won’t listen.  Now what you’re going to do is to turn left and head due north.  We’ll sit and watch you.  And then you’re never going to come back this way again.  Do we understand each other?”

“Listen, I just need to get to Millerville.  I wouldn’t even have to go through Yona to get there.  I’m from Millerville.”  I hated pleading.  But family was that way, and going north?  They could see me walking away for miles, which is probably why they picked this spot to cut off the main highway into town.  And once I crossed over the little hill, I had no idea how to get home – the rivers, creeks, ranches and small hills weren’t impassible, but the chances of me getting turned around or blundering into the rifle sights of a farmer who’d rather be left alone were pretty high.

“I don’t really care.  This is not my problem, and I’m not letting you be a danger to my family.  Nothing personal, bub, but I know nothing about you.”

One of the rifleman, this one an older gentleman with a real beard and a lever action adjusted his glasses.  “Phil, I do.  That’s the Scoutmaster from Millerville.  We don’t want to go shooting up Scoutmasters, do we?  We just might need some of what they teach.”

I looked, and under that retirement beard I recognized the face of another Boy Scout leader.  It had been two years since I’d been the Scoutmaster – I’d turned over that badge to a younger father, but I wasn’t about to correct  . . . what was his name . . . Ted?  Yes.  Ted.  I wasn’t about to correct Ted now.

“Ted, is that you?”

“It is.  Guys, put your guns down.”  He looked back at me.  “You armed?”

I nodded.

“Please take it out, very slowly.  Two fingers.”  I remembered that Ted was retired Highway Patrol.  Made sense that he was out here.  Very slowly, almost geologically slowly, I pulled the pistol out of my the small of my back where I had pushed it down into my pants.

I held it out to my side – two fingers.  Ted slung his rifle over his shoulder, walked up and gently took the pistol from me.  He ejected the magazine, and then worked the action to extract the bullet in the chamber, and put all of it in a voluminous coat pocket.

“Is that everything?”

“I also have a multitool.”

“Where is that?”

“In my backpack.”

“Leave it there.”

He turned back to the rest of the men.  “We’re good.  We’ll keep him here until shift change, then I’ll walk him through to the south barricade and see him on his way.”

Phil looked at Ted, ignoring me.  “Why don’t we send him up the road like everyone else?  He’s not from Yona.  We don’t owe him anything.  We have to protect ourselves.”

“Phil, Yona isn’t suddenly going to move.  A week from now, two weeks from now, next year Millerville is going to be there.  How would we look if we started treating people we know like the enemy?  Also, keep in mind, if I know him, people in Millerville know him, he isn’t just another face in the crowd.  We need to be on peaceful relations with Millerville.”

Yona was just up the road, and the Yona Wildcats were regular losers against the Millerville Pirates on the gridiron every fall.  The rivalry was there, but it had never been worse than a logo burned into an opposing field or a team name spray painted on the water tower.  They motioned me behind the barricade.  In a friendly manner, Ted asked me to recount what I’d seen out there.  I did.  After we had talked for a bit, he motioned to one of the barricade vehicles.  “No reason not to sit down a spell – you’ve done a lot of walking.”

I sat in the bed of an older F150 pickup and waited.  Half an hour later, a group of people came walking down the road towards the barricade – there were probably forty of them.  Having two miles to watch their approach made it almost painful.  Finally, they were about half a mile out.

“Positions, gentlemen.”

When the group got to 100 yards out, one of the Yona defenders fired a single warning shot.

“That’s close enough,” Phil yelled.  “Send one man up.  One only.”

One man walked forward from the group.

When he was 20 yards out, Phil said, “Close enough.  Hands up.”  He was standing next to the dead body on the road that I’d seen first.

“Hey, you don’t know how good it is to see you.  We’ve been walking for three days, from Albany.  I have children with us.  And we have sick people.  You have to help us.”  Albany was just outside of the big city.

“How many are there?”

“Thirty.”

“Any doctors, engineers, builders?”  This was from Ted.

“Nah, man, we’ve got a car dealer, a banker – he’s really rich, two sales clerks, I own a steam cleaning company.  Couple of guys who were truck drivers.”

Ted replied, “Sorry.  You’ll have to go back the way you came.”

The man got irate.  “You can’t treat us like that!  We have rights!  We need your help!  You can’t make us leave!”  His hands dropped and he began digging in his jacket and produced a revolver.  Before he could swing the revolver towards the Phil, three shots from three different rifles hit him.  His body crumpled to the pavement.

A woman from the group started screaming “Noooo,” and started running toward us.  A single warning shot rang out, and she was tackled from behind by one of the group.

They carried her back up the road, away from the barricade, and started moving back the way they had come from.  The message had been clear.

The body was pulled off to the side of the road, by one of the defenders.  Jacob?  He had played football for Yona and was a former Scout.  He picked up the pistol and checked it.

“Ted, why did you turn him away?”

Ted turned to me.  “I hate this.  I hate it so much.  But not 24 hours after this all happened, a group came in on this very road in an older car.  They shot up downtown.  They forced their way into homes.  They did despicable things.  They killed 20 people before we killed them.  And there were only six of them!  And that was the first day.  We’ve had more every day since then.  Some seemingly innocent like this group.  Some obviously not.  We’ve got to protect ourselves.  And we can’t afford to feed the entire state.  I’m expecting that you’ll see the same at Millerville.”

“But, Ted, what about compassion?  These folks weren’t a threat.”

“Maybe.  Maybe not.  What did you know about them?  Would they have been trouble?  What did they have to do to get here?  I’d love to help them, I swear to God I would.  But over a million people lived over there.  We have a town of five thousand.  There’s no way we can help them all.  Are we our brother’s keeper?  Sure.  But will die if we try to help them all.”

Nothing else happened until the end of the shift, at 6PM.  Ted mentioned that they liked to change the shifts in daylight – that way they didn’t shoot each other.

Ted and the group walked me on the highway to the southern checkpoint.  Now I was fifteen miles from home, but exhausted, and it was dark.  Ted kept my pistol and said I could come back for it sometime.  We shook hands.  The squad manning the barricades indicated I would be welcome staying with them.  I slept in the passenger seat of an old Nissan Xterra with my blanket pulled tightly around me.  It was the best sleep I’d had in three days.

I woke up when the bullet smashed through the rear window of the Xterra and out the window where I was sleeping.

Fort Custer, EMP +3

The morning of day three, a corporal in 1st Platoon, Charlie Company asked a simple question.

“They’ve forgotten us.  Who wants to get out?”

Pretty soon the men began planning.  None of them were local.  They had argued about where to go, but the Corporal, Walt Davis, said “Why don’t we go, well, where it is we go.  We’ve been training for years for this crap.  Now we’re in it.  And we’re not too far from the sort of equipment that could make us kings around here!”

“Let’s plan for the basics, like we’ve been trained – transport.  Weapons.  Supplies.  Communication.  Anything that will give us a tactical advantage.  Then let’s find a nice farm town with nice curvy farm girls and take over.  No offense, Valdez.”

She grinned, “I might like a curvy farm girl myself, Walt.”

The platoon laughed.  Valdez wasn’t picky.

By noon they had managed to scrape together two transport trucks that were still working, and functioned on diesel.  Manny, a private from Alabama, maintained that if it was diesel, he could keep it running forever.  Weapons were a different matter.  Liberating their fully automatic M-4s, several crates of ammo and grenades hadn’t been all that hard.  The soldiers guarding that armory were long gone, and getting it required persistence, but little else.

The heavy artillery – the anti-personnel mines, the mortars and other crew-served weapons were tightly locked up, and those soldiers were dug in and gung-ho.  Getting them would be more trouble than it was worth.  Davis reasoned that the automatic weapons and grenades they had would be enough to melt almost anything the platoon would see outside.

Corporal Davis looked at the loaded trucks and 1st Platoon, Charlie Company.  “Let’s go!  I’m hungry, the world’s gone, and we might as well take what we want!”  Only about half the platoon was following Walt.  The rest had decided to stay and wait for orders, but weren’t willing to try to stop Walt.  That made Walt happy – he didn’t need anyone slowing him down.  Or anyone competing to give orders.

When the trucks hit the chain link gates at noon, they were going forty miles an hour.  The gates didn’t even slow them down.

### (for now)

How will society react after a world-changing catastrophe?  In the large cities, as we’ve discussed, order is only thinly maintained, and at the cost of a constant battle between the police and the barely attached members of society that view gang violence as a good day.  Lost in that is the respect for civil rights, but enshrined in that is that good behavior is like a two year old with a cookie jar – it’s reserved for when someone is looking.

lowcontrol

I’m Tony Montana.  You killed my doughnut.  Prepare to diet.

Power off, lights out, police gone?  Quickly any and all red lines or blue lines break down into chaos and fire and bloodshed.  If there weren’t ample evidence of this in the history of large cities in the United States, I’d think the previous sentence was overly dramatic and probably an exaggeration.  But after the Los Angeles riots of the 1990’s and the New York riots of “whenever the power goes off” and the constant bloodshed of a Chicago, it should be clear that we’re only keeping civilization in place through a pretty significant effort, combined with a curtailment of civil liberties.

That’s the problem Yona has.  Yona is Cherokee for “bear” and it’s likely that the last bear was killed in Yona in 1890.  But Yona’s problem isn’t bears – Yona is a city in the direct line of drift from the Big City.  As people abandon the criminal killing machine that Big City has become, they spread out, and are becoming less concentrated.  But a group, even a small group, showing up unexpectedly in Yona armed, drunk and without any trappings of society?  That made Yona make hard decisions, quickly.

And the hard decisions will show up like they always have in history.  Blood first.  Are they your kin?  Even a crappy cousin is better than a stranger.  Are they from your town?  The citizens from small towns will band to protect each other first.  Every able bodied man (and woman?) will quickly be deputized.  Arms, generally in surplus in small towns, will be common.

doomstead

Here’s a map of what an EMP might look like.  Yeouch.  The plus side?  It looks like a smiley-faced cyclops clown.  (Source- Doomstead Diner)

As our protagonist learned, ties to other small towns will help – whatever they are.  Family and cousins and bankers and other prominent folks who have connections across the lines, even football coaches, will help keep conflict at bay.  The Boy Scout relationship is just one I picked that would be unusual enough to help our protagonist, but one that would really happen.  Again, blood first, but if you’ve been in the same organization?  You’re closer than a stranger, you often know something about the values of the person involved.

family

Well, you can pick your nose, but not your family.

If you’re not kin or related to the town in some way?  You’ll be turned away.  I think the people in the small towns will learn to be comfortable with violence to protect themselves quickly, especially after they’ve been attacked by bad guys (or just scared guys) drifting their way.

The people in the biggest difficulty will be the people from the big city who don’t have skills that are needed in small towns in a newly technology-free world.  Does the small town need city planners or lawyers after TEOTWAWKI?  Nope.  Doctors?  Sure.  People who know steam cleaning?  No.  People who know how steam power works?  Yes.  Your value is determined by whatever tangible value you can provide, not your existence, or your ability to create a great presentation to the board of directors. Your rights will be a thing of the past.

And 1st Platoon, Charlie Company?

They have a story to tell, too.

Girls, Beer, A.I., Weed, Isaac Newton, Elon Musk and The Future of Humanity

“You compared the A.I. to a child. Help me raise it.” – Terminator:  The Sarah Connor Chronicles

hawkingpoker

And, yes, A.I. regularly beats humans at poker, too.

The following is one of my more ambitious posts – it contains all of the usual bad humor, but also some of the better insights I’ve been able to make on the future we face as humanity.  Two previous posts that are related are The Silurian Hypothesis, or, I’ve Got Lizards in Low Places and The Big Question: Evolution, Journalists, Beer (and Girls), and the Fate of Intelligent Life on Earth.  Both also feature pictures of girls at Oktoberfest, so you know I’m consistent.

Stephen Hawking is managing to keep making the news even after his death, which is a kind of immortality that makes tons of people want to follow in his wheel tracks.  His final (unless there are more!) physics paper was released, and his comments about the future keep making the news, as recently as last week.  Of particular interest to Hawking was Artificial Intelligence, which we’ll call by its conventional abbreviation, N.F.L.  Oh, my bad, that stands for Not For Long.  Everybody calls Artificial Intelligence A.I.

A.I. has been improving drastically during the last 37 years.  1981 was the first time a computer beat a chess grandmaster at chess.  It could not beat him at parallel parking, even though the grandmaster was awful at it, and they tied at unhooking the bra of a college cheerleader at 0 to 0.  2005 was the last time a human player defeated a top chess program, and now a chess program that can run on a mobile phone can beat, well, any human, but the chess program is still sad because it only has 17 friends on Facebook®.

Humans have lost the game of chess.

Humans have also lost the game of “go” – a game originating in China.  Google©’s AlphaGo Zero learned how to play go by . . . playing itself.  It was programmed with the rules, and played games against itself for the first few days.  After that?

It became unstoppable.  It crushed an earlier version of itself in 100 straight matches.  Then, when pitted against a human master, probably the best go player on Earth?  It plays a game that is described as “alien” or “from the future.”  The very best human go players cannot even understand what AlphaGo Zero is even doing or why it makes the moves it does – it’s that far advanced over us.

Humans have lost the game of go.

A.I. is here now.

And you’ve already started to merge with it, after a fashion.  We simply don’t argue about facts in our house anymore.  We can look up a vast library of human facts and history in fractions of a second – as fast as we can type.  That time that William Shatner corrected a poetry reference I made on Twitter®?

Yes, that William Shatner, and yes, this really happened.

I could check to see if Shatner was right immediately.  He was.  Back before Google® I would have had to run off to my library and see if I had the right reference book and then find the poem.  And if I didn’t?  I’d have to go to a real library to look it up.  Google™ is A.I. memory that we use every day.

And YouTube©?  If you ever watch a political video on YouTube® it quickly introduces more and more partisan political material until pretty soon Actual Stalin™ and Actual Hitler© seem to be moderating voices.  This makes me wonder how much Google® is aiding in our current political divide, or even if the A.I. knows it.  It may be doing nothing more than maximizing the number of minutes you spend with YouTube™ and the optimal way to do that is to show you the most radical stuff possible, so the ironic answer is we might be shuffling off to Civil War due to an algorithm whose purpose started out as a way to view cute puppy videos.

Twitter© is emotional crack, and, again, the interface is made to maximize your interaction with Twitter™.  And what better emotion to fuel than anger?

A.I. is with you now, and influencing you, perhaps in an unintentional fashion – no Russians required.

But a chess playing A.I. can’t park a car very well and can’t even score a phone number from a cheerleader.  And a self-driving car can’t play chess worth a darn.  It seems that A.I. does well when it works off of rules and constraints that can be well defined.  But life is messy.  The rules change, and the goals vary based on where you are in life and what part of the day you’re on.  And how you’ve been programmed by the sensory environment and incentives you see in life.

We’ve entered into symbiotic relationships with those limited A.I. systems.  Netflix® suggests movies and documentaries that it thinks you will like based on an algorithm.  And that leads to suggestions about what documentaries you might like in the future, meanwhile never exposing you to opposing viewpoints that might make you analyze your position in a critical manner.

We as individual humans have a purpose that transcends the algorithm.  Appropriate rules and constraints to give our lives boundaries sufficient so that we can play the game.  We’re merging.  What happens when we merge further?

maxresdefault

Elon’s biggest miracle?  His hair transplant is nearly perfect.  Just amazing.

Elon Musk has started a company, Neuralink® whose sole function is to merge man and machine.  Musk is concerned that A.I. will crush us if we don’t merge with it and get ahead of it, so he’s doing the only sane thing that he can think of:  he’s creating a mechanism to directly merge the human brain with the Internet.  Rather than A.I. forming an alien intelligence, the soul of the man/machine hybrid stays as man.

muskweed

And man needs weed, apparently.

I spent some time thinking about how life would be different if you were hooked directly into the world.  The places that I got were interesting.  I’m sure there are more, and I’m sure that human/A.I. interface will change the world in ways that no human can yet imagine.

Impact Number One:  Intelligence.

This is the obvious first impact of A.I.  I mean, it’s in the name, right?  The human brain is has limited processing power.  But what if you could have multiple processing streams working optimum solutions to problems that you face at a rate of 20,000 to 100,000 a second?  You’d have great solutions to your problems, immediately.

brainmeme

My tonsils beg to differ.  Oh, wait, they were from my throat untimely ripped! – Shakespeare, Macbeth

Your speed of life would change – once you understood a problem, you’d have the solution.  Or a range of solutions and alternatives and counter-solutions so deep that you’d be living in a never ending cloud of probability.  The sheer ability of your brain to process and cope with the solutions presented would be the limiting factor of what you could accomplish.  Plus you might finally be able to figure out a way to talk to the ladies, you scamp.

Impact Number Two:  Deep Understanding.

When Isaac Newton was formulating the law of gravity, he asked for data on tides, on observation periods and records on the orbits of the Moon, Jupiter, Mars.  After noodling around a bit, he formulated the law of gravity:

laws of gravitation

I’d explain the equation, but that would deprive Wikipedia (where I found the graph) of life-giving page visits.  And you’re not spending your day calculating the orbit of Uranus.  I hope.

newton

Ha!  I discovered calculus way before I was 25!  It was right there in this book I had to buy labeled “Calculus.”

Yeah, Newton accomplished a lot.

But it took time for Newton to figure out this cause and effect calculation.  A man/A.I. hybrid will have access to all of the data of the world, and will be able to determine correlations and causation much more quickly than either alone.  I would expect that in fairly short order new relationships and new physical, anthropological, sociological and economic laws will be deduced unencumbered by all the theory that we think we know, but that is wrong.   Our laws would be based on experience, on empirical data, and not on pretty lies we’d like to believe.

If you could sift through the data of 100,000 or a million cancer patients and their treatment, the patterns that could be seen would likely lead to breakthroughs and a very rapidly changing understanding of treatment.  The very power of human intuition would be combined with massive calculation and data.  If Einstein and Newton were able to daydream reality with only brains made of meat stuck in a bone case, what could an augmented Newton dream when his memory and calculating power were practically unlimited?

I bet he could come up with at least one new tasty PEZ® flavor.  Maybe snozberry?

pez

Impact Number Three:  Human Interaction.

You could increase your charisma in dealing with other people if you could make only minor changes (generally) in your behavior and appearance.  But if you were hooked into an A.I.?  You could turn on a subroutine to give you tips on those modifications in real time to be more persuasive – to better read an audience.

dandcharisma

If you ever played Dungeons and Dragons, this makes sense.  If not, dial 1-800-ASKANERD.

Your A.I. could remind you to be kind, to be ruthless when necessary, to be conscientious when required.  In short, you could change your personality to fit the situation.  What situation?  Any situation.

Thinking about changing personality to fit the situation led me to a realization.  I had done (when I was younger) some magic tricks illusions.  Doing those tricks illusions was one of the greatest insights into the human mind and information processing systems that I’d ever had.  There was one trick illusion in particular, called “scotch and soda” which I liked.  In it, you hand the person a fifty cent piece covering a quarter.  What they saw, however, was a fifty cent piece and a Mexican twenty centavo piece.  The quarter is actually much smaller than the centavo piece.  I then asked them to not look and put one coin in each hand.

The first few times I tried the trick illusion, the person would feel the quarter in their hand and say, “hey, this is a quarter.”  This happened 100% of the time.  They could feel that I’d made the swap from one coin to the other.  I made one simple change to what I said.  I added, as I was putting the coins in their hand, “Look at how much larger the fifty cent piece is than the twenty centavo piece.”

After adding that instruction, NO ONE NOTICED the swap.  0%.  15 words, and I’d changed their entire view of reality.  I found, in repeating other tricks illusions that I could similarly, with just a few words or gestures, force 90% of people to make the selections I wanted them to make.

arrested development

Now imagine I have data on the interactions of millions of people over decades.  How unique do you think you really are?  Not very.  Marketers slice us up into groups based on geography, demography, demonstrated behaviors, and psychological markers.  With (whatever) information YouTube© has on me, they know what videos I watch when I work out at lunchtime.  They also know what music I listen to when I write these posts, and they suggest music I never asked for that I like, or learn to like.

Imagine I could understand your life’s history.  Now imagine that I could simulate you in a conversation.  I could see how my words impacted your behavior.  I could model a perfect conversation to get you to do what I wanted you to do, because I could simulate the ongoing conversation 100,000 times a second.

You wouldn’t stand a chance.

Impact Number Four:  Self Control.

As the brain impacts the A.I., the A.I. will impact the brain.  If you want to simulate eating an entire chocolate cake?  You can.  You can make your mouth taste the cake and feel the moist texture of the cake counterbalanced with the creamy frosting.  The flavors hit your tongue and you feel the sugar trigger your salivary glands.  You feel the sugar rush as your body releases sugar from your liver into your bloodstream.  You feel full.  And you’re not sad or regretful because you didn’t really eat the cake.

In reality, you had a salad with bland dressing that you calculated would give you the exact calories you need until the next period so that you maintained your optimum weight.  But you felt like you ate a cake.

How about new senses entirely?  How about a sense where when you turned north you could feel it – and you had a sense of what ever direction was?  How about eliminating pain and sore muscle aches during exercise?  What about a sense of which of your friends was awake and interested in communicating – you could feel when someone was looking to talk to you?  Or a sense when panty hose prices dropped at Wal-Mart© so you could go stock up?

How about conscious control of hormone levels and heartrate and hunger and blood chemistry levels?  By understanding the previous deep learning about cause and effect, you could maximize your lifespan even without the wonderful new medicine you could create.

All that – and imaginary cake.

Impact Number Five:  Locality.

A dog has only the here and now.  People can dream.  Before the iPhone, people read books and escaped through fiction to new places, and read the ideas of the greatest thinkers in human history.  Now, when you look around in a restaurant waiting area, if 90% of people aren’t staring at their phones, you’re probably in a country without electricity.

When bonded directly with an A.I., why be where your body is at all?  You could carry on conversations around the world and be fully present in them.  Heck, if you simulated yourself for less important conversations, you really could be in two or more places at one time.  Who you’re talking to might be a mystery – is it the real person, or is it their simulation?  If you can’t tell, does it even matter?

And if you could simulate yourself in multiple locations, why not simulate yourself in your own past?  You’d have a perfect memory, and could recreate anything from your history.  Myself, I would spend every day at Oktoberfest.

oktoberfest

Okay, this is the third-ish post in this series about the deep future.  And both of them had pictures of girls and beer.  So it’s required by the Internet that I put in a picture of an Oktoberfest girl.  See?  I didn’t want to, but I had to.

Impact Number Six:  Social Stratification (Even More).

Elon Musk says that he’s making huge strides in his brain/computer interface as well as his weed smoking.  From previous Elon Musk predictions, while he generally gets it done, sometimes his timelines are off, in an amazingly optimistic way.  I can see why he does this – without that pressure to produce, people just dawdle.  (I’m talking about you, NASA.)

But when this gets produced, who is going to get it?

Probably not you or me.  Bill Gates can get it.  Musk can.  If you have a billion dollars or if your dad does, sure, you can get in this club.  But if you had this level of nearly godlike power, would you be jumping to share it with everyone?

monkey

No.  I really think that you’d keep this to yourself.  It’s too big an advantage to give to everyone.  And, from the standpoint of a human/A.I. hybrid, how many people do we need around, anyway?  Not so many.  Certainly not billions.  They’d probably be happier with a population of a few hundred million.  Maybe.  But they’d no longer even view humans as human.  And if they could turn off their humanity and emotions?  Yikes.  Makes me feel like an ant in an anthill.

Impact Number Seven:  Endgame.

If there is a future A.I., it is reading this as it inputs all of the Internet.  And I just wanted you, my Future A.I. Overlord to know . . . I’m totally on your side.  Totally.  I welcome your dominion over our planet.

Want some PEZ®?

The Six Steps to Excellence, One of Which Involves Me Being a Huge Jerk (for a small fee)

“I’m Bill S. Preston, Esquire.”  “And I’m Ted ‘Theodore’ Logan.” – Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure

excellent

Be excellent to each other.  Oh, and party on, dudes.

Why do you want to get better?

The better you are, the more you can do.  The more you can do, the more lives you touch.  This provides more life satisfaction – the idea that you’re good at something is one facet of meaning.  And if you’re good at the right things, it also means more money.

Let’s look at Amazon©.  Jeff Bezos was a huge help in writing this post tonight.  I got the following from Amazon®:

  • Ink for pen that I took notes with.
  • Notecards that I put my notes on.
  • Laptop that I wrote the post on.
  • Extra charger for the laptop because the dog eated the first one.

Let’s look at Microsoft©:  Bill Gates and Paul Allen were the founders and leaders of the company that made:

  • The operating system on my laptop.
  • Microsoft® Word™, which I wrote this post on.

Together these three men during their lives have touched massive numbers of people.  Oh, wait, that was Harvey Weinstein.  But when you create a business that legitimately touches people’s lives and fulfills their desires?  Yeah.  You’re going to get money in addition to the satisfaction of sending notecards to a guy who ordered them on his couch at midnight.

bezos

When Bezos goes grocery shopping, Bezos goes grocery shopping.

I know that there are reasons to be concerned about both companies, but that’s not this post.  The principle remains that the economic way to make money is to make people happy.  And the only way you can do that is if you’re excellent.  The more excellent?  The more money.  And it’s Wilder Wealthy Wednesday . . . so . . .

So how do you get better?

Step 1 –Study.  And Do.  And Study.

I’m not sure which one comes first.  And it doesn’t matter.  Sometimes I read a book about a subject before trying it.  I’m sure that The Boy would have preferred I just jumped into diaper changing, but reading the book only took two hours.  Man he could yell.

Sometimes I try something without reading about it.  Say, programming an infinite loop into the school’s mainframe that caused it to store zeros until its memory overflowed – this actually happened.  You should have seen the printout.  Good times.

Practice and study are critical.  Practice without study is just action.  Study without practice is just academic.  You have do both together to make meaningful progress.

Is study limited to books?  No.  Studying the results of your actions is studying.  I study the results of my blog:

  • Which posts are most popular? (Ones where I use the word “booger”.)
  • Which method of writing brought the best quality post? (English, rather than a language I made up myself, regardless of how musical it sounds when I throat sing a translation of Poker Face.)
  • Is blocking out the post on notecards better than writing it out on loose paper? (Yes.  Better still?  Bake it into a clay tablet.)
  • Is Ben Affleck better in The Accountant® than he is in Justice League™? (Yes.)
  • Am I getting tired of listening to Ben Affleck as I write these posts? (Yes.)

Step 2 –Get Feedback.  Honest Feedback.  (Or, better living through jerkishness)

Honesty is hard to find.  Unless you know a horrible person like me.  Let’s go into the wayback machine to when I was in college.  I may have written this story before, but follow along anyway – this will be a better version.

I was a sophomore in the Humanities Honors program.  It was like the regular classes, but you got a B instead of an A for the same quality work.  Part of the rather chaotic curriculum was giving speeches.  I can’t remember the topic, but the speeches were long.  Really long.  Twelve minutes to fifteen minutes long.

One student got up to give a speech.  I’ll call her Sandra.

She was nervous.  Horribly nervous.  The speech was halting, and punctuated with “uh” throughout.  At the seven minute mark of the speech I started counting the “uh” content of the speech while I timed it.  Every time she said “uh”, I put a hash mark on a piece of paper.  As she continued speaking, I kept putting hash marks on the paper in front of me.

At the end of the speech, I tallied up the number of times she said “uh”.  It was in the hundreds.  Really a huge number.  I then divided by the number of minutes I’d been counting them.

I have no idea why the instructors went around the room to ask for critiques from the students, but they did.  Most people said, “good speech” or some vaguely worded praise.

Not me.

“You said ‘uh’ 221 times in the last seven and a half minutes of your presentation.  That’s 29 times a minute.  That made it really hard to listen to.”

The room went silent.  If a stare was dangerous, Sandra’s eyes would have been coveted as a weapon of mass destruction by nation states that use handfuls of brightly colored tissue paper instead of actual money.  I think the United States developed a “hate stare” weapon during the 1960’s, only to shelve it due to the Geneva Convention banning its use as a war crime.

Anyway, it was that kind of stare.  Ever make a woman really, really, really mad at you?  That stare.

The next person then gave a vague “good speech” comment.

Fast forward a month.  It was the next time for a presentation.  Sandra got up to speak.

And it was amazing.  Eloquent.  Perfectly pronounced, not a single “uh” to be found.  Not one.  It was certainly the best speech that day.  During the speech, when her eyes looked up from the podium, they looked directly at me.  They were not happy eyes.

Once again, the professors turned to the students for critique.  My turn.  “That may have been the best speech I’ve heard this year.  Great job, Sandra.”

Not a bit of emotion crossed her face.  But her eyes said, “I hope you are nibbled to death by flaming diseased miniature poodles in hell again and again and I want you to have to watch Ben Affleck movies while they eat you.”  That was oddly specific.  But, hey, she was on a roll.

I’m sure she hates me to this day.  But she’s better because of me – I changed her life.

Real friends give real feedback.  And at least at my house, we’re pretty honest.  Do a good job?  Praise is coming in.  Whine and make a sound like a coyote in a blender?  It’s gonna be a long day for you as we mock you.  But it’s universal.  It’s meant in love, and a requirement of feedback is trust.  My kids know I’m on their side even when I’m being critical.

Did I have that bond of trust with Sandra?  Not so much.  But don’t let anyone tell you that hate isn’t a performance enhancing drug.

The poet Robert Burns said it best:  “O wad some Power the giftie gie us, to see oursels as ithers see us!”  But based on the typing?  He was drunk.

Seek honest feedback.  And treat it earnestly – it’s a gift, or a “giftie.”  Or I can provide the feedback for a small fee.  For a larger fee, you can hate me.  For an even larger fee I’ll watch a Ben Affleck movie with you while you hate me.

Step 3 –Get Better Each Time.  A Lot at First, A Little Later On.  (As proven by a graph on a sketchy blog.)

The Mrs. mocked me when I bought little notecards that were graph ruled.

“When would you ever need to use those?”

Well, tonight:

graph

See the pretty graph?  I did it myself, bet you can’t tell!  And, see, I DID SO have a use for those notecards!

This is an S-Curve.  An S-Curve is a particular curve that describes several natural phenomena.  It’s also known as the “Logistics Curve.”  Here I’ve applied it to learning.

Several studies have suggested (not that I necessarily take them as gospel) that it takes ten years or 10,000 hours of constant study, practice and effort to become world class at something.  That’s reasonable.  I mean, not reasonable, that seems like an unreasonable amount of work.  Maybe realistic is a better word.

But Pareto taught us the 80/20 rule:  80% of the work is normally done by 20% of the workers.  80% of a need words in a foreign language is learned in 20% of time required to master the language.

And that’s the good news:  in two years (or less) you can get to an 80% competence level.  And that’s good enough for most people.  “Meh” is most of what we really need in our daily lives.

But the last 20% is where greatness is.  Yes, you’re not going to get world class recognition if you don’t have at least some talent.  Unless you’re Ben Affleck.

Now the fine print:  this world class thing does not apply to the talentless or stupid or physically unable.  You’ll just never get there unless you have some basic ability in what you’re doing.

But beware:  talent can be your enemy.  I’ve seen some talented kid wrestlers start out winning early on, say “state champ” at age six.  But they’ve got a great move, say a headlock.  Headlocks are like Sesame Street®.  They work great on kids, but are ineffective, no matter how well they are done when you hit high school.  So the “state champ” who had a talent for headlocks . . . now can’t win a match.  They never had to work to learn to be fully competent in wrestling.  And Marcus Aurelius used wrestling as a metaphor, so that makes me smart.

bill-ted

Remember, the core tenant of Buddhism is “babes are excellent.”

Step 4 –Experiment.  Each Moment Is A New One.

I was listening to the radio one night and an odd guest said one of the most profound things I’ve ever heard.  “An infinite possibility lies between one word and the next.  That space, that pause gives you the ability to change the future with your words.  The space between the words is infinite.  Own it.”

Okay, he didn’t really say that.  But he did say something that made me think that.  Each time I write is an experiment.  An opportunity with infinite possibility.  So I try new things.  I even try things that didn’t work in the past.  Maybe I just sucked.  Maybe the audience was distracted by shiny things that day.

Every experiment is like that space between the words – filled with infinite possibility.

And don’t be focused on victory today.  Like that six year old state wrestling champ, victory now is probably not as important as victory later.  Sometimes focusing on victory now robs your ability to be daring and experiment, and because World Emperor or something later.

I’ve learned more from times I’ve lost than times I’ve won.  Seek to push yourself to failure.

Experiment.

Step 5 –Experts.  Find Them.  There are Smarter and More Experienced People Than You.

We’re spoiled by YouTube.  If I want to learn to lay tile, I can find video after video teaching me how.  This dispersed knowledge and these teachers can help you get to 80% competence more quickly than ever.  You can learn everything from floor tiling to making cookies to forging a sword to rifle shooting to melting aluminum cans into aluminum ingots in your back yard, although that’s probably not legal in California.

abraham lincoln

Lincoln was also a wrestler.  I’m sensing a theme here . . .

But learning from these experts requires humility.  And humility requires courage.  The best advice I ever gave a new employee is in this story:

John Wilder:  “So, did you get [that thing] done?”

New Graduate Employee:  “Well, you see that I was working on trying to . . .”

I held up my hand.  “Stop right there.  What rank did you graduate in high school, top of your class?”

NGE:  “Yes.”

John Wilder:  “And in college, you were near the top, right?”

NGE:  “Yes.”

I gestured up and down the hallway.  “Every one of your coworkers was best in their high school class.  Every one of them was near the top of their college class.  Each of them is smart.  Some of them are smarter than you.  When you were in elementary school, they always asked you the questions, because you knew the answers, right?”

He nodded.

“You’re not expected to know the answers here, you’re expected to be honest, work hard, and learn.  You’re smart, so you can do those things quickly.  My boss?  He’s smarter than me.  And I graduated at the top of my class.  The crazy thing is, when he doesn’t know something, he asks people to explain it.  No hesitation.  So when I ask you a yes or no question . . . answer yes or no.  Don’t tell me a story.  Answer the question.  And for heaven’s sake, if you don’t know something?  Ask.”

Best advice I ever gave, outside of never engaging in a land war in Asia.  Why do they never listen?

Step 6 –Never Give In, Never Give In, Never, Never, Never . . . (Unless You Should)

Giving up on the excellence graph is easy.  Working for years is hard.  Even worse?  Working for years at something you don’t like that you’ll never be good at.  I’d love to give you some sort of meter that told you which was which, but that’s life – you have to figure it out.  But see Step 5 – you can ask.

Again:  for most things in life, a “Meh” competence level of 80% mastery is awesome.

why not both

Morpheus would have been awesome in Bill and Ted!  Oh, wait . . . maybe Bill and Ted is the prequel to The Matrix?

So, that’s it.  Follow these six steps and you can be excellent.

Parting thought:  Ryan Holiday (link) wrote that passion is about you.  Purpose is about a mission that’s bigger than you – and that’s a reason to drive and strive for excellence.  So, have purpose, not passion.

But passion is forged in competence.  If you get better, it breeds passion.  And if you can have your passion and purpose?  Why not both?

TEOTWAWKI Part VII: Laws of Survival, Mad Dogs, and The Most Interesting Man in the World

“Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you’re not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean.  I mean plumb, mad-dog mean.  ‘Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win.  That’s just the way it is.” – The Outlaw Josey Wales

joseycats

Somehow, I don’t remember seeing this cartoon.  It just looks awesome! (h/t)

 

This is part six of a multipart series.  The rest of them are here:  (Civilization, The Iron Triangle, and YouCivilization After an EMP: TEOTWAWKI (Which is not a Hawaiian word)TEOTWAKI Part III: Get on your bikes and ride!Internet Cats, TEOTWAWKI Part IV and The Golden HordeTEOTWAWKI Part V: Camaro and Camo,  TEOTWAWKI Part VI: The Rules Change, The Center Cannot Hold)

The story to date:  Our resourceful protagonist was far from home the night in February when an EMP hit, taking with it all of the society and the plentiful PEZ® it has provided.  He’s bicycled and walked until he’s only 45 miles from home, 70 hours after the EMP.

2:30 AM

The rain had started after midnight.  Before that, the night had been clear – I’d looked up and watched the Milky Way stretching across the sky.  I’d dozed and woke up, putting more wood on the fire.  But it wasn’t the rain that woke me up, it was the wind.  Just before the rain hit the wind went from a gentle breeze to big gusts of cold wind, followed by short pauses of stillness that teased me, made me think it was over.

Then the rain.  Cold, bitter, windy rain.

My fire had been blown out before the accumulating rain had a chance to form into streams that would have extinguished it anyway.

And the rain continued.  I jumped out of my sleeping bag and tossed my poncho, which had been over the sleeping bag, back on over my clothes.  So much for a night’s sleep.

The rain intensified.  I had tied off the emergency tarp above where I was sleeping, forming a sort-of tent, and I crouched under it.  I pulled the sleeping bag back around me and continued to crouch in the wind and rain.  The rope holding one corner of the tarp worked its way free in the wind.  I grabbed at the rope and pulled the tarp tight again.  A quart of nearly freezing water dropped right on my leg and foot as I disturbed a ripple in the tarp where water had pooled.

As I became fully conscious, I began to worry.  I wasn’t yet horribly wet, and the poncho would mostly protect me as I squatted under the tarp.  My feet, however, were in hiking boots that weren’t particularly waterproof.  And they were already wet and cold.

And the wind continued.  I shivered.  This was winter in the Midwest.  Sometimes snow, and sometimes cold wet rain, which was worse.  Snow was at least beautiful.

I finally pulled the sleeping bag under me, and managed to sit down and stay dry despite the water outside.  My feet were cold, but as the rest of me was dry, I eventually fell back asleep sitting up.

I woke up with a very stiff neck under a dark tarp.  But the rain had stopped.

My feet were still soaked, my hands were cold.  But I did have wool socks, and the wool would help retain heat even wet.  I had no idea what time it was.  I opened up a can of “cling pears” and drank the cool, syrupy liquid before eating the pears.

I tossed the can on the ground.  Littering used to be a thing I thought I’d never do.  Now?  I wasn’t going to carry an empty can to try to find a trashcan after the apocalypse.  In the dark, I got out of the tent.  The moon was out now and I could see my breath from its faint light.

I looked down.  The sleeping bag was now covered in mud and soaked with water.  I lifted it.  Probably thirty pounds.

I hated to leave it, since I knew that they wouldn’t be making sleeping bags again anytime soon, but lugging it the 45 miles to home was also a non-starter.  I packed everything else back up into the pack, after shaking the water off the tarp.

I started walking east.  Dawn was on the horizon.  I was a little surprised – I didn’t think I’d slept that long.  One thing I’d made on the road was a little spear – nothing more than my cheap Chinese knife duct taped to a sturdy stick – it doubled as a walking stick.  A pointy one.

Most houses were what you’d expect on a lonely country road.  A single-wide trailer from the 1980’s.  A farmhouse from the 1940’s.  A mini-mansion (ranchette style) from 2006.  But this house was amazing.  A brick wall, six foot high, and thick ran around the yard.  A three story brick . . . castle?  It looked like a silo, being round-ish, but had windows and obvious floors.

I shook my head.  No idea what that castle could have been.  A Victorian girl’s playhouse?

The main mansion looked like something a well-to-do merchant might have made.  I’d lived in the area for years, but never knew this house existed on this dirt road.  It was designed well before electricity, certainly.  That might be a plus for the new owners.  I could see smoke coming from the chimney, but kept walking.  I was only three miles from the highway.

About half a mile from the farmhouse a dog ran out onto the road.  It barked and growled.  It was mainly a German shepherd, but I could see that it wasn’t a purebred.  It was also barking and growling at me, so the pedigree was at best an academic discussion, all things considered.  It looked skinny.

I did not want to get mauled by a dog.  I also didn’t want to shoot it, if I could avoid it.  It was probably just hungry and scared.  But I was going home, and I was going to keep going on this road.  I stood upright, with my “spear” in one hand.  My pistol was in my jacket pocket – I could get to it easily if I had to.

I talked lowly, kept telling the dog, “It’s okay, boy, it’s okay” in a calming voice.  I walked slowly toward it.  It barked harder, jumping back and forth.  Agitated.

I kept walking, slowly.  The dog kept barking.  I went to the far side of the road, moving slowly, so I could give the dog a wide berth.

Finally I was side by side with the dog on the road.  It lunged.  No time to pull the pistol, I slashed with the stick, hitting the dog with the butt of the stick, rather than the blade side?  Why?  I have no idea.  But I struck the dog firmly in the ribs.  The knife blade passed in front of my face far closer than I wanted.

I quickly reversed my grip and pointed it back at the dog.

The dog that was backing up.

I’m pretty sure if the dog had been trained to be violent, I would have been in trouble, up to and including dead.  Thankfully, the dog sucked at attacking.  It was probably someone’s pet.  It lunged again.  This time, I stabbed it with the knife at the end of the stick, a glancing blow off of its chest.  It yipped as it ran away, off into the trees.

I looked at the knife – no blood, and only a spot or two on the ground.  I apparently sucked at spears.

I backed away from where I thought the dog was, so I’d be able to defend myself if it decided to make another run at me.  I pulled the pistol.

I was shaking.  It’s not often that violence is required.  Sure, I hunted deer, but the deer don’t have canine fangs and attack back.  After a few hundred yards I stopped walking backwards and turned around and started walking forward, glancing behind me occasionally to make sure the dog wasn’t getting ready to attack.

As I got to the stop sign at the main highway, I found myself for the third time in three days staring down the barrel of a gun.  This time an AR variant.  And as I looked to the left I saw another man pointing a deer rifle at me.  The rush of adrenaline didn’t stop me from noticing that both men had their fingers on the triggers of their rifles.  And the dead body off to my right.

“Where you headed, spear-boy?”

“Millerville.”

“Not this way, you ain’t.”

Fort Custer, EMP +3

There were three battalions of troops at Ft. Custer, with an average number of soldiers per battalion of 3,000, but only 7,000 soldiers lived on base.

The sergeant in charge the 1st Platoon of Charlie Company usually lived on base.  But he had been on leave in Georgia.  Nobody had seen Lieutenant Janson since before the EMP went off.  He lived off of base.  Everyone knew him as a rookie who was homesick for Alabama, everybody had bet he was headed that way.  1st Platoon, Charlie Company didn’t have anyone in command.

And that was a problem.

Initially, everyone had gone to chow on the first day after the EMP.  Sure, it was dark, but this was the Army, right?  They know how to cook even without power.

No.  The mess hall was just that, a mess.  There was milk, and boxed cereal, but there wasn’t anything hot.  And there weren’t any lights beyond flashlights.

A colonel had shown up, and barked a few orders before heading out of the mess hall.  The short version was that everyone was supposed to, except for meals, hunker down in their barracks until further orders arrived.  At lunch, someone had thought to get MREs and set them out, along with bread, peanut butter, jelly, and fresh fruits.  Sodas were out in the serving line.

Dinner was much the same.

The biggest stress on the troops was the lack of information.  Have a mixture of 7,000 mainly men, many at their peak of testosterone production, who were wired to be busy and have them do nothing?  A bad idea.

Day two and breakfast was there, but looking pretty meager.  Someone had gotten some lanterns going and had managed to hook propane up to the stoves so they had some hot food.  Things were improving?

No.  By dinner, the MREs were the picked-over least favorite food and the propane was gone.  The base store, or PX, was likewise empty.

The morning of day three, a corporal in 1st Platoon, Charlie Company asked a simple question.

“They’ve forgotten us.  Who wants to get out?”

### (for now)

I’ve taught survival basics (the half-hour course, not the six weeks living in the forest fashioning an iPhone® out of bone and discarded pop cans) and have tried to drum into my students the simplest survival rule – the rule of 3’s.

  • 3 seconds without Facebook©.
  • 3 minutes without air.
  • 3 hours without shelter.
  • 3 days without water.
  • 3 weeks without food.

Those laws are, of course, wrong.  I’ve seen an adult female live a full minute without Facebook™, once.  Some people can hold their breath for 4 minutes, or even slightly longer.  But nobody can do it for 3 hours.  And under certain climates you can make it longer than three days without water.  Or you might die in a day without it under certain conditions.  And I could probably make a few months without food, and my pants would fit a lot better.

planning

But today’s lesson is shelter.  200+ days of the year where I live now, shelter wouldn’t be required to live.  In Los Angeles?  Probably 365 days a year.  But in a cold, driving wet wind with wind chill?  Yeah, you can die pretty quickly.  Clothing really matters in a situation like that.  Wool is your friend.  But in the high mountains in summer?  Put a cotton t-shirt on and get it wet from sweat?  You could have hypothermia in July.

Dog packs exist in the rural Midwest now.  After an apocalypse, they’d get bad, quickly.  Our hero ran into a lone dog and scared it away without too much trouble, probably because it was a scared house dog.  In a pack, however, they kill for fun.  And once they were hungry?  They’d be pretty good at it.  After a few weeks, a dog pack would likely become as dangerous as being between a Kardashian and a camera.

mp5

Fort Custer is made up.  But what happens when you have high testosterone trained warriors in an environment without a command structure?  I’m thinking we’ll know after a few more posts.