“Damn straight. I always wanted to do that, man. And I think if I were a millionaire I could hook that up, too. ‘Cause chicks dig dudes with money.” – Office Space
How many economists does it take to change a light bulb? No idea. They’re all still arguing over why the last one broke.
Why do I write about economics? When people talk about economics, they have been trained to be bored. Just talk about supply and demand curves and you’ll see eyes glaze over. That’s why I, John Wilder, invented Sexy Economics®, because curves in bikinis rarely cause eyes to glaze over. See, genius!
Economics is real, and it’s important. And if you want to understand economics you’re probably more likely to learn it from a supermodel than from a Ph.D. in economics.
Catastrophes happen – heck, they happen all the time. My first marriage was a catastrophe, and it only caused the First Gulf War and the eradication of several Bolivian villages. That’s one of the reasons I got divorced – I didn’t want to be responsible for the thermonuclear destruction of mankind.
Some relationships are just that bad.
I just ended a long-term relationship. Good thing it wasn’t mine!
As I look towards the 2020’s, I originally was going to write a year-by-year commentary on the coming decade, at least as it pertains to economics and the potential difficulties we face. In one sense, it doesn’t matter who is going to be elected next Tuesday (or, a month from Tuesday if the courts get involved). Part of the fate of the United States, and world economy in general, is already baked in the cake.
At this late stage in the American Experiment, both Republican and Democratic parties agree on one thing – spending money is exactly what each side wants. In many cases, the spending that both sides want is identical, but differs only in very small ways: ‘Rona stimulus bux? Both sides agree. Both sides (roughly) even agree on amounts: “all of it.” It’s easy that way – it’s not their money.
The only real difference (from what I’ve seen) is that the Democrats want to add in lots of payoffs to their favored groups and make it hard for Republicans to pay of their favored groups. And vice versa. Both want to open the money spigots.
Where does the money come from?
Printing it, silly. Depending on tax revenue is for amateurs.
Printing money does, however, have consequences. One consequence we’ve seen so far is that the previous WuFlu stimulus bills have been a money conveyor back to the richest people on Earth. Can’t go shopping at the mall? Your local store has been shut down by a totalitarian governor?
Bezos® can bring it!
I ordered hay for my horse from Amazon. It upset me that two days later they wanted my feed back.
Need entertainment and can’t go out? Netflix® can bring the latest repulsive Leftist propaganda! Facebook®? Twitter™? All available. And all ready for your stimulus bux, and all brought straight to Americans on Coronavirus-free, totalitarian-approved broadband.
How is it paid for? Those same Stimulus bux. The stimulus to the economy has been a conveyor of money straight to the wealthiest people on Earth. The economy? Well, it, at least temporarily dropped to 2008 levels. And I shouldn’t have to remind you that 2008 wasn’t exactly a great year, unless you were John McCain’s brain tumor.
But what do the 2020s have to offer? What trends will end up influencing our lives if we don’t end up as victims of John Wilder, Civil War Surgeon in Civil War 2.0?
- Dollar Collapse.
To be fair, I’ve been expecting this one since the late oughts. It really took years and years and years of utter mismanagement to get us to where we are today, and we really shouldn’t waste them. I mean, we should take the example of the Australians. They stocked up on toilet paper during the COVID-19 crisis, and were okay down under.
The signs of this particular currency collapse crisis will be unique, and an early warning will be a general increase in prices, like going to Wendy’s® and having to pay $5 for a burger.
Oops.
Government services will actually decrease. Taxes may or may not go up, since no one really cares how much money the government has anymore. As of 2020, the only thing holding the value of money up in the United States is inertia. We can spend dollars internationally because everyone on Earth . . . will let us.
Why would they do that?
Unrelated news: Chuck Norris burped today – Dallas gone.
The United States has thousands of nuclear weapons. Who said that was a wasted investment, eh? The Golden Rule isn’t really, “he who has the gold makes the rules,” it’s really, “he who has a nuclear arsenal and an advanced military and navy makes the rules.”
The biggest threat to the dollar isn’t the Federal Reserve™ printing it right and left. Nope. The biggest threat to the dollar are the Russians, Chinese, and Europeans saying that they’re not afraid anymore. After that? It’s autarky, where we have to depend on our own production. That’s been the standard throughout much of history – countries have been, through the tyranny of distance, forced to be self-sufficient for all but the most luxurious of goods – if you’re in 1500’s Europe, you won’t be importing firewood to France over the Silk Road.
It won’t be so bad – the United States is still wealthy in energy, minerals, and agricultural products, and if we’re not? We can push Canada over in an afternoon. Trudeau would probably surrender if we sent him a nasty email. (I love Canada, but, really, Trudeau???)
When does it hit? Like I said, I’ve been expecting this one for quite a while. I’m not sure the United States makes it to 2030. Our primary saving grace? The rest of the world’s economists ate glue in kindergarten and rode the short bus, just the same as the economists in the United States.
Consequence? 7/10. Life goes on. Except shabbier. In some cases, especially older folks, life is far worse. Most currency collapses take place in a span of a year or two, and people rapidly adjust. Of course, those that only had the local money are now poor. Precious metals are still the best investment: gold, silver, and lead.
- Energy.
The secret to American energy independence is fracking, and I don’t mean all the fracking that Hunter Biden has been doing in all of those pictures on the Internet. But a little secret of fracking: the fracked oil wells deplete very quickly – in some cases producing 90% of all of the oil they will ever produce in the first year.
Right now, the United States is not drilling so much. Last year at this time, over 700 oil rigs were poking holes in the ground looking for sweet, sweet oil. Last week there were 189. Sure, that’s more than zero, but it’s not a lot. Oil production is down. That makes sense, since gasoline prices are so low you could use it instead of water for bathing in Texas. Oil demand is down, by 15-20%. You Texans? Take more showers.
Hunter Biden has religion. I heard he was a Crystal Methodist.
A nation doesn’t go from 700 active oil drilling rigs to less than 200 without sending a lot of people home. And putting rigs in garages. Or, more likely, losing those rigs to bankruptcy attorneys. Heck, even my attorney was so hurt by the oil collapse he had to take a job cooking. He’s now a sue chef.
So, if the economy ever gets going again it will hit a hard limit: energy. In the last few years people have forgotten that high energy cost is a tax that impacts almost every bit of physical production. If it gets to your house, it shows up on a truck. And you can’t cheat the system. A currency collapse is like a hurricane or an ex-wife – it starts out crazy and wild, but in the end, it will take your house.
Imagine that, everything is starting to look good, and then?
Wham. $6 a gallon gasoline.
That’s a great way to turn an economic recovery into an economic failure. Regardless of Biden or Trump this will happen. Biden will just make the response worse, because he’s like my browser: 17 tabs open, and he has no idea where the music is coming from.
When does it hit? My bet is 2023 or 2024.
Consequences? 4/10 if Republican leadership, 8/10 if Democratic, since Leftists will use this as an excuse to put in Green Energy®, which has is not an energy program, it’s a program of social control.
- Healthcare.
Ironically, healthcare is probably the biggest sickness in our economy. Even before COVID-∞ showed up, our healthcare system was set up to fail. The reason for failure is simple: as a compassionate nation, we don’t really refuse service to anyone. So, if an illegal immigrant mother from Mongolia and show up in an emergency room because one of your four hundred and fifty-one goat-children has the sniffles, they have to treat it.
And they can’t charge her if she can’t pay.
That explains why Pugsley went to the emergency room and got three stitches because whittling your left hand is easier than whittling a stick, it cost me $2400. And, yes, I have insurance. My insurance paid zero, though it did make me wish I’d have pulled out the needle and thread.
A native Alaskan tried to convince me to become an eye doctor when we lived in Alaska. Sadly I was suffering from an Optical Aleutian.
This isn’t just an individual problem – it’s a system problem. The first rule of real economics is: incentives matter. Thomas Sowell once said that if decent economists were in charge of bringing down automobile accidents, they wouldn’t put an airbag in the steering wheel – they’d put a Bowie knife pointed straight at the driver. Then? The driver would have the proper incentive to not cause an accident.
Our health care system has nearly zero good incentives. Because of that, the system is broken – it’s a hidden tax on tens of millions of people who take responsibility versus a nation of tens of millions of freeloaders.
And it will, over time, bankrupt us.
When does it hit? For the last 20 years, but it will become unsustainable (if trends continue) by 2028.
Consequences? 5/10, but 8/10 if you’re really sick or old. Collapse of the healthcare system as it is. Destruction of the insurance industry (which may be a good thing). Eventual rationing of healthcare based on either cash, government mandate, or both. Even for seniors.
There they are: three potential fates for the 2020’s. And you thought things would get better after 2020.
Ha!
