“What’s all this talk I hear about you fooling around with the college widow? No wonder you can’t get out of college. Twelve years in one college! I went to three colleges in twelve years and fooled around with three college widows.” – Horse Feathers
In this episode, Gilligan eats the last cookies on the island. Ginger snaps.
The “traditional” path for students with good grades was to “go to college.” Honestly, this was pretty good advice for a long time. The number of high school graduates that went to college bounced between 40% and 60%, of course being higher during the Vietnam draft. When my uncle was in Vietnam, he killed a dozen soldiers. Next year we’re going on vacation to a different country.
Around 1974, however, the percentage boomed, with over 80% of high school graduates at least attending some college by 1978 or so. The rationale was that a college education was a ticket to a better life. Again, for the most part, the common wisdom was right.
But why? In 1971 after a Supreme Court decision, companies could no longer use I.Q. tests for employee selection, they had to use something because, despite what the Simpsons™ might suggest, you really want smart people operating nuclear power plants. Certificates and credentialism had always been nice, but now businesses desperately needed some way to select employees that were smart enough to do the job.
What did Three Mile Island say to Fukushima? “Nuke, I am your father.”
Thus: college degrees. The more selective the college, the greater the ACT® or SAT™ score required to get in. ACT© and SAT™ scores are actually a very good proxy for intelligence, so, graduate from a good school? That shows a (likely) innate intelligence along with enough foresight and planning to defer satisfaction until the degree was granted.
In 1970, going to college at Harvard™ could be paid for with the (current 2021) equivalent cost of $22,000 or so a year. Now it’s over $75,000 for the sticker price. College prices went up because demand went up. Harvard’s© prices went up more because they were more selective – it was harder to get in so they were a better sifter for I.Q., I mean, who would have guessed that Hawking had the same I.Q. as Evel Knievel? I mean, they both loved ramps . . . .
But another factor was the increase in money available. Politicians looked for ways to encourage people to go to college. So, colleges increased prices to better soak up all of the student loan dollars available. Getting students morphed from “here’s where our graduates work” to “here’s what our climbing wall looks like.” Millions were invested to make a college more of a theme park than a serious place of learning. They raised prices so high that during COVID, college even became the most expensive video streaming service.
Along the way, though, standards decreased to get more students in the door. Not only was it easier to get in, inflation hit grades as well. Right now, the average grade at Harvard© is an A-. The average.
Harvard®, the vegan Crossfit™ of colleges.
Even now, though, Harvard™ is still a great rate of return for students. It’s not the education, it’s who a student meets. Harvard® is useful for the connections with wealth and power a student can make. Get in good with the right family? A student can become engaged with that class, though often there’s a cost.
Harvard® is still a good investment, even though it’s supposedly hard to get in. Heck, I got in. They don’t even lock most of their windows.
Some colleges are horrible investments. Going to Podunk U in North Central BFE and majoring in Anthropology of French Basket-Weaving Poets? Yeah, that’s also known as majoring in pre-barista. But that student could have been a barista without rolling up $50,000-$75,000 in student loan debt. And, if the student majored in philosophy, they can ask, “Why do people want fries with that?”
The Mrs. told me I needed to grow up. I was speechless. It’s hard to talk with 45 gummy bears in your mouth.
So, if I were giving general advice to a kid who was determined to go to college, I’d suggest that they avoid anything that someone can do over the Internet from Bangladesh. I can hire 45 Bangladeshis for approximately half of a Slim Jim© an hour, so why compete against tens of millions? Engineering is good, if you have the knack. Medical fields are constantly in demand – I saw an ad here in Modern Mayberry for nurses. Five-figure signing bonus – and that wasn’t $199.99, it was over $10,000. That’s probably a good idea. The short answer is that it’s not 1970 anymore. A student can’t just do any degree – they have to major in something that will pay the cost of the college degree.
Is college a good idea? Not for all of the 80%. Probably, college is still a good idea for 40%, at most.
So, what about trades?
Just like college, the economics has been twisted there, too. Just like supply and demand has tossed prices for college into the stratosphere, an oversupply of laborers has cratered the cost of many trades. Except for carpenters who build stairs – they’re always thinking a step ahead.
Where did the labor come from? Immigrants, illegal or not. Entire construction trades in many parts of the United States are completely staffed by people who speak less English than Pepé Le Pew. Whereas they often do great work, they are part of the reason that wages are stagnant in many trades. Sure, in 2022 there are shortages everywhere putting an upward pressure on wages, but that’s a short-term event.
I had one plumber who was very polite. When he looked at my sink he said, “I am at your disposal.”
Certainly, some trades are doing well. Which ones? Once again, those that require credentials and those that require citizenship. Anything that lowers the competition.
Regardless, the time when most trade jobs had pensions has passed – many have the promise of . . . Social Security. And in 1970, getting a job that supported a family just out of high school without a college degree? It was possible. Tough? Certainly. But possible.
It’s still possible today. A small-town plumber in Modern Mayberry does pretty well, so well that he became a Christian missionary overseas – I guess he’ll bless the drain down in Africa. The local HVAC guy makes a killing, too. And power linemen? They live in some of the nicest houses in town.
Are there still paths for a young person in 2022? Yes. It’s far tougher than it was in 1970 for a kid today, though. The traditional paths are difficult.
Now thank me I didn’t find a picture of Rosie in a bikini – I bet she has a hairy back. Oops. Sorry about putting that thought in your head.
The path, like the path between Scylla and Charybdis, is narrow. On either side are monsters. It’s sort of like being caught between Rosie O’Donnell and Whoopi Goldberg – you’re always safer if you have a pocket full of hot pizza rolls to distract them.