“It’s my pot pie!” – South Park
After you’ve killed the last vampire, I guess it’s you’ve got the final Count down.
- Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
- People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
- Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
- Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
As tempted as I am to move the clock because of the party-line impeachment inquiry vote, I’m going to hold at Stage 7 this month. A more formal set of structure needs to be in place to get to Stage 8.
The French Civil War lasted a very long time. Those guys just couldn’t win.
In this issue: Front Matter – Violence and Censorship Update – Civil War II Goes Mainstream –– Updated Civil War II Index – Starvation (via Yer Ol’ Woodpile Report) – Links
Welcome to Issue Six of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War II, on the first Monday of every month. Issue One is here (LINK), Issue Two is here (LINK), Issue Three is here (LINK), Issue Four is here (LINK) and Issue Five is here (LINK).
Violence and Censorship Update
Just once I’d like to come back and report that things were looking good for censorship, that, hey, life is getting better. October 2019 was not that month. In October, Twitter® made the announcement that they were not going to accept advertisements from political candidates anymore. That’s good. Last election I voted based on yard signs. I think I voted for my realtor.
That sounds fairly even-handed. But Twitter© engages in soft censorship as well, limited the reach of many tweets, most of them on the Right. If asked, I’m sure the Twitter© would indicate, innocently, that “it was the algorithm” that was responsible.
That’s a pretty little lie fancy way of saying, “we don’t like your speech so we’re going to tune the computers to allow less of it.”
Also deleted this month was Red Ice, a 330,000 subscriber channel on YouTube®. Since that was a main source of income (via sales) it hits the creators economically. Paypal® banned “street artist” Sabo. They’re hanging on to his money for six months They paid him after the bad publicity (LINK). In the article, they have a link to a poster he was selling on (Regr)Etsy™? Funny, not available on (Regr)Etsy© anymore. It’s almost like he’s . . . censored.
Do not, for an instant, think that payment sites, video sites, and social media sites are anything but Leftist sites. If you are on the Right, they want you to be silent. If you won’t shut up, what condition do you think they want you in?
I love this video – it shows the real way that censorship works – when the ideas are censored, your mind replaces the censored material with something that was likely more exciting than the original material. Censorship will backfire. I too, love to BLEEP all day.
Civil War II Goes Mainstream
I heard once upon a time that couples who don’t divorce, don’t talk about divorce. It’s as if the idea of the divorce wasn’t even allowed to enter the room. The logic, I suppose, is that once you talk about divorce, it becomes one step closer to being real. In that way, a divorce in New Mexico, a tornado in Oklahoma, and a civil war in the United States all have something in common – someone is losing a trailer home.
On more than one occasion this month Drudge® (yes, I know) has featured stories on the United States being near the outbreak of a Civil War. Most of the articles really didn’t read the study; in it, it asked, on a scale of 1=peace and 10=war, where are we in the United States. This is exactly the scale I developed in Issue One of the Weather Report. I have us pegged at a 7. So does the average respondent in the linked (LINK) survey. I don’t know any social science jokes – I took chemistry instead. And my chemistry jokes never got a reaction.
So, yeah. 7 out of 10 on the Civil War scale. It’s not just you. It’s not just me. This poll shows that everyone feels we’re headed this way, and most people feel we’re about the same distance from crossing into chaos. I hope it’s not chaotic like the Mexican Civil War where they ended up fighting Juan-on-Juan.
This month we are one year out from the 2020 presidential election. I think if the Democrats had any confidence in one of their candidates beating Trump, there would be no official impeachment inquiry in the House – this is an emergency effort. If you go back and read my previous posts, I was pretty skeptical that we’d see impeachment proceedings in 2019/2020. But here we are, so take all of my predictions with a grain of salt. There are several outcomes we can review at this point:
Senate Clears Trump, Trump Wins: Probably the most likely scenario as of this writing, and also the most amusing.
Outcome: I can foresee that one way where we tiptoe through this crisis without collapse is that Trump wins and somehow avoids the twin specters of public Balkanization (Left and Right) and economic downfall. More likely? Four more years of divided government, where Trump is thwarted at every turn by activist judges that hate (certain) laws being enforced with increasing deficit spending. Expect increasing street violence. Regardless: Trump will be the Last President (Trump: The Last President?).
Senate Clears Trump, Trump Loses: The second most likely scenario, although in this case I simply cannot see a Democratic candidate that won’t whither under the Twitter®fied gaze of Trump. However, Silicon Valley® is doing everything it can to pull all of the oxygen it can away from Trump – it has deleted account after account of followers on the Right for comments that followers on the Left routinely get away with.
Outcome: This emboldens the Left. They think they have already won. I would anticipate an attempt to immediately erase everything Trump did, up to and including stacking the Supreme Court. Attempting to push too far, too fast tips the economy. Things get spicy, quickly.
Elizabeth Warren would lose the election to a drawer full of socks. I think she can taste defeat.
Senate Convicts Trump, Democrat Win in 2020: The third most likely scenario. Which democrat? Elizabeth Warren? Creepy Joe?
Outcome: This also emboldens the Left, perhaps even more than Trump being acquitted. In this they would have their dream of the last three years come true. The Democratic party is already split, between the Legacy Left (think Biden, Pelosi) and the True Left (think AOC and the Teen Girl Squad). This puts the True Left into control. The True Left likes what’s going on in Venezuela and Cuba. Gotta break a few eggs to get to the Worker’s Paradise, right comrade?
Senate Convicts Trump, Republican Win in 2020: The least likely scenario of the four, and also the weirdest of the four.
Outcome: The Republicans would be in disarray after a conviction. In fact, I think in more ways than one, Trump has ripped apart the Republican party from within and exposed people like Mittens Romney as the “me too, but let’s wait a year” wing of the Democratic party. I’d be surprised if Mittens isn’t writing articles titled, “The Conservative Case for Redistribution of the Means of Production to the Proletariat,” and, “Transgender Surgery for Minors – A True Conservative Value.” The Left would be even more outraged that yet another election was stolen, and would push back even harder.
Are there other scenarios? Sure – we are in a time where people think we’re 70% of the way to Civil War. That could lead to things normally reserved for Third World countries where the President-for-life wears a fancy uniform with lots of medals. Coups. Military juntas. Trump calling out tanks in the streets. A ninth season of Game of Thrones.
Updated Civil War II Index
I’ve been teasing graphs for two months – here they are, with full bikini treatment.
Violence:
Up is bad. Violence is up overall during the year. I would have expected that it would have peaked in the summer, but, no. It’s staying high. I expect real riots in June and July of 2020. Potentially there will be riots at both national conventions – the Republicans in North Carolina, the Democrats in Wisconsin. I expect that the Republican National Convention in 2028 will be held in a Ramada Inn® in northwestern Montana. The Democrats? Probably a reinforced bunker in an undisclosed location.
Political Instability:
Up is bad. Surprisingly, down a little from September, but still quite high. Actual action on impeachment will increase this, especially if resolve fails in the Senate.
Economic:
Down is bad. Weird things are going on in the economy. Interest rates in many countries are negative(!), yet mortgage rates went up last month. High interest rates in mortgages will lead to housing price declines. And the last time that happened . . . .
Illegal Aliens:
Down is good, since (in theory) ICE is catching fewer aliens because there are fewer people trying to get in. Trebuchets would get that number to zero in an afternoon.
Starvation (via Yer Ol’ Woodpile Report)
“As in all war, food would be weaponized in a Civil War II. We don’t have to go back to antiquity for examples, more recent events provide a long list . . . .”
Remus talks about this in issue 600 (LINK) and issue 601 (LINK) of Yer Ol’ Woodpile Report. These would be good to read and share with friends.
History and cold calculation suggest food would be a weapon in a Civil War II, one of many, but of prime importance long term. Civil wars have long gestations, go kinetic suddenly and get complicated in a hurry. We have no firm knowledge what would set it off, who would be actively involved or how it would end. But the outlines are repeated well enough to guide our preparations.
The ruling class already treats middle America as this century’s Untermensch. Nothing is off the table in a civil war. Seizing the nation’s food would be an obvious move. Expect them to deploy troops to secure big ag and the necessary transportation facilities, destroy anyone who got in their way and terrorize potential troublemakers. But there’s a limit to even the deep state’s resources. Prudent survivalists in the far hills wouldn’t warrant their attention, they’d be more likely to trade shots with desperados than find themselves in a firefight with regular forces.
Food is the indispensable survival prep. At minimum this means a secure long-term stash of high calorie food sufficient to outlast the initial violence and privation without relying on resupply. Call it a year, maybe two.
The United States is one of the most spoiled blessed countries on Earth. Calories here are cheap and abundant, and very few people in the United States have ever felt real hunger at all. Starvation is such a non-problem that there is no statistics for people in the United States who have died of starvation. The biggest complaints is that people live in “food deserts” where the only things they can get are processed foods, which make them fat. More like “food desserts” than food deserts.
Are there hungry people in the United States? Certainly. Are there many starving people? Certainly not. Obesity in children is a far bigger problem. Oops. Was that insensitive? Larger problem?
Beefcake!
Hunger is a potent weapon. Food is, by any historical calculation, amazingly cheap now. Stocking up 3,000 calories per day for a person for a year could be done for $500 – if you really like rice. Flour is cheaper – $250 or so. For a year. It’s not a lot of variety, but it’s way better than starving. Here’s a great website that breaks down food on the basis of how many calories you can buy for a dollar (LINK). How much would you like to have if the trucks stopped coming to the local store?
Check out The Bison Prepper (LINK) for ideas on frugal prepping when dollars matter. Time might be short.
Links
As always, please feel free to send me links or leave them in the comments!
Glenda on Globalism.
Adam on Multiculturalism.
A book suggestion from Montefrio at The Burning Platform.
From Mary Christine at The Burning Platform: Frank and Fern.
From Vote Harder at The Burning Platform – 500 survival links.
A video from Mark at The Burning Platform.
An article from Mark at The Burning Platform on Lenin.
From Ricky:
Does the boy have access to the world wide web where he resides at school? I just thought his graphics were um, better focused….
Hey, I’m the one who put in the research time to, umm, select the graphics.
Civil War II might end up being a game of chicken.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-11-01/free-range-love-or-how-i-learned-stop-worrying-and-love-coq
In a time of restricted food sources, you don’t get to be a hog.
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-scientists-quarter-pigs-die-swine.html
No, you don’t. Ironic if flu was the spark.
Meanwhile, here’s this week’s insightful editorial on American politics specifically mentioning “civil war” and, as a bonus, “military coup”.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/how-far-will-they-go/
In other news, here’s this week’s insightful editorial on current American politics that discusses not only “civil war” but “military coup”.
I’m including the zero hedge version because Kunstler’s original source link includes a vulgar but totally accurate word that didn’t pass the spam filter here.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/us-media-carrying-buckets-muddy-water-coup-team
Kunstler is insightful. Good link.
Elizabeth Warren would lose the election to a drawer full of socks. I think she can taste defeat.
Can we throw socks we have worn, say, three days, in that drawer? That would really taste like defeat, I am happy to say..
Nice! I like that. It would be even better if the static cling did its thing . . .
If The Donald is impeached, nothing happens. That’s just dogs rolling in dead things – it’s what they do.
If The Donald is convicted and removed by the Senate, then CWII starts immediately. They, both parties, will have proven that our votes don’t matter.
You may very well be correct. I’m just wondering about the CWII-fighting effectiveness of anyone who realizes that both parties have arranged things so that our votes don’t count, only after an actual removal of Orange Man Bad. Didn’t they notice that between the effective veto powers of the “judiciary” and the permanent bureaucracy, the election of Trump made very, very little difference?
You might be right. The possibilities are strange – uncharted territory.
I disagree that Trump winning re-election is likely. As awful as the Dem candidates are and yes Warren should lose to a drawer full of socks, there are plenty of people in this country dumb enough to vote for a drawer of socks if the media and celebrities tell them it will keep Orange Man Bad from continuing to be mean to minorities by having record low unemployment for them and letting them out of prison where they will of course vote Republican. I would think that enough white Trump voters will have died of old age and non-white voters will have turned 18 by the time next election day rolls around to flip the margin of victory in enough states that Drumpf winning is very unlikely. Demographics is destiny, Charlie Kirk and Candace Owens protests to the contrary notwithstanding.
Dunno – again – no outward sign of Trump support in Modern Mayberry until he took 9/10 votes.
The issue won’t be districts like mine or yours, it will be in the swing states he just barely carried. I wrote about it yesterday a little bit. The loss of the Republican governor in Kentucky was ominous, Trump won Kentucky in a landslide.
Yup. Here’s hoping that’s local politics . . .
Or — the Republicans won all statewide races but one…. and that one Trump was able to drag from 20-25 points down to dead even in two weeks. YMMV.
Whatever happens politically in this country, there will be NO civil war.
We are a nation of dependent ninnies.
Sure, there are those of us that will take a stand, but not enough to change anything. 90% of the population is dependent on government for something or other, and will do what they’re told when the time comes. All the “Red Dawn” fantasies out there are just that.
Even if the economy collapses, people will get angry, but they’ll still line up at the soup kitchens. Until the soup runs out. Then they’ll just die, whimpering about their lost rights or something equally benign.
There is no fight in the American people anymore.
It is the other 10% that they worry about. 10% of Trump voters is over six million people. If they didn’t think there is a serious danger, they wouldn’t be pushing for gun confiscation so hard.
So, guns get banned. 85% of gun owners do not comply, as has happened in Connecticut and New York. What now?
People rise up and storm DC?
What will really happen? my guess is nothing.
Our side does not agitate. We sit at home expecting others to do our work, and we think we can still vote our way out of this. We will gradually be replaced and forgotten about, as they are doing in Western Europe, in a process that undermines freedom while telling people they are free. And most people are either too stupid or too scared to do anything about it.
Throwing around witty memes and vitriol does nothing to solve or even alleviate the problem.
So what is your solution? I am not ready to whistle a jaunty tune while digging graves for me and my family.
My solution is for my family and reliable neighbors, but at best it’s a stop gap to extend our lives as much as possible. I don’t have a solution for the entire country.
Fate is inexorable.
That soup kitchen is called WalMart and the ‘cash’ is an EBT card. You will not see food lines.
I was wondering if that would be the case about a year ago. The more I think about it, the more realistic war seems. I think there’s a lot of anger. The economic conditions absolutely matter.
Economics is key. Joe Sixpack’s not getting off the couch unless he’s broke and starving. But do you really think he’ll actually do anything when that time comes?
I think it will be too late. By the time the gormless hordes realize they’ve been lied to for generations, they’ll be in the boxcars or at the bottom of a trench.
Humanity has an amazing capacity to ignore the truth when it doesn’t suit them, up to their death.
What scares me the most is what they will do when they are finally cornered. Epstein proved that nothing is off the table and they can get anybody. If treason is in the offing they will have nothing to lose, and even a military coup by the Perfumed Princes should not be discounted. Everything happening now is happening for the first time. Never before in our history has the losing side sought to nullify the results of a Presidential election by treason, sedition, and character assassination. It’s uncharted territory.
When you connect the dots it’s no surprise that the party of treason. sedition, and corruption wants our fighting rifles. Perpetration of massive outrages against the Peons is ALWAYS preceded by weapon seizure. When .gov says you don’t need a gun, you REALLY need a gun.
Guns are plentiful and easy to get in the US even in California. What’s lacking is a goal (what to build instead) and the will to start the thing.
Until the money aspects of the culture become less important than the demography and culture itself , that won’t change.
If you want old American back you, that is your guys will have to be able to build an economy that is stable, a marriage system that is stable, a moral system aligned against degeneracy and probably repatriate 60 million or more persons .
Otherwise you eat the dog food the Left gives you till they fill the boxcars
Excellent point.
It is uncharted territory – and the polarization increases daily. Unlike my hair.
The posted A video from Mark at The Burning Platform. link isn’t there. Nothing happens when I click on it, and the browser text for the link doesn’t appear at the bottom of the window. The others I’ve tested all worked normally.
Will fix that when I get to a keyboard. Thanks!
Should be fixed. Thanks again!
Forget the trucks. Cities like NYC, LA, ATL, CHI cannot get enough calories in by truck. You stop the trains into these environs and the whole place becomes Leningrad in ’42 in a real hurry.
Just stop the trains. Its easy if you try.
in regards to housing, keep in mind the banks and gov will fudge up debt to income and housing ratios thru their automated underwriting systems (AUS). former lender here with many stories about not qualified and after gov AUS system update applicants are approved, nothing changed. they will push that as far as it can go then we will see more alt a or what they are now calling non qm lending. banks, developers and hedges need the broke, the stupid and desperate as exit strategies.
Yeah – you’re right – but you can’t keep a house of cards up forever . . .
Thanks for the mention, John. I keep thinking about Frank and Fern being prepper weary. All the time on the net I read things like “just rip the band-aid off and get this thing rolling, already!”
Then I read the latest link from WRSA about how starvation after the Bolshevik Revolution led to cannibalism. I think I would rather be prepper weary.
I read that article today, too. That’s simply chilling. That future is darker than many imagine, especially in the cities.
That was awfully disturbing and it is an important reminder of how important it is going to be to be able to feed yourself.
And those around you otherwise they will just eat you….Which is why I stress building Communities where you are at or if you can’t do it where you are at move to somewhere you can…
True. We should all be in a place where we will not have to move if things turn ugly. and having a bug out place isn’t good enough. If you’re not already living in your bug out place, you should try to move there as soon as possible. The locals will not appreciate you just showing up when the SHTF.
“Food flows between counties in the United States”
While most scholarly papers are quite expensive to view this one happens to be free while simultaneously managing to be both scary AND interesting all at the same time. Open the link below, look for the “Article PDF” or “Article ePub”buttons, and download it for easier viewing.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab29ae
Okay, that’s fascinating. I’m going to have to spend some time with that one. I’m in a producer state. Which is a good start.