Wilder Travels, From Girdwood to Whittier

“What’s that? Crying? There’s no crying in baseball driving to Anchorage.” A League of Their Own

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So, after traveling hours and hours and hours with an infant (Pugsley), a soon to be five-year-old (The Boy), and a stereotypically male husband, I imagine that The Mrs. wanted to gouge out her eyes with a spoon, because it’s dull, and would hurt more.  But, she got the biggest bonus yet.  She got to continue driving farther south than Anchorage.  I know that most things (including all of the past, current, and future members of Van Halen) are farther south than Anchorage, but Anchorage might as well be Dixie if you live in Fairbanks.

We got to go to Girdwood, Alaska.

Just the name sounds uncomfortable. Gird. Like girth. Gird. Like girdle. Makes me think of William Shatner. Who’da thunk it was a pretty and nice town?

But, we couldn’t see any of that. We got there at about 8:30. After driving through some of the most beautiful scenery imaginable, yet just dark enough that my camera would have produced pictures of what you might think were whales mating in some deep Pacific trench where fish don’t have eyes.

But we got a bonus.

The New Boy decided he was hungry in Anchorage, and the decision was
a. feed him then and there or,
b. push on to the hotel.
The Mrs. made the call: push on. And we lived with a crying baby for the duration of our trip to the hotel.  A crying baby really didn’t stress me out.  I’m a man, and a dad. That gives me a selective deafness that would allow me to sleep through a jet landing on our house, if it came ten minutes before my alarm for work went off.  Crying babies don’t bother me.  The fact that The Mrs. was stressed did.

When The Mrs. ain’t happy, nobody’s happy.  (I counted up the negatives, and I think I got that right).  We got to the hotel, and The New Boy promptly decided that all people around him who were capable of holding a bottle to his mouth were either dead or incapacitated by avian flu, and became quiet as a mouse.

Now, you may be saying – “How dare you not feed a hungry baby? That could be bad or something.”

You haven’t seen this baby.  He’s huge.  Not any fatter than a usual baby – he won’t be featured in a paper anytime, but he gains about a pound a week.  He eats about sixteen quarts of formula a day, and we’re thinking of moving him up to ribeye steak flown in directly from some Japanese farm where they have a string quartet that serenades the cows as they feed them beer and massage them, because that would be cheaper than the baby formula. He gained a pound in a week – 1/18th of his current mass – at four months’ age.  He may be big enough when fully grown to look down on Hulk Hogan.  So, don’t worry ’bout The New Boy.

And, drive the Seward Highway when you can.  Wow.  Pretty, even in dusk.

A buddy of mine suggested that we go and visit the Alyeska Prince Hotel (no relation to Artist Formerly Known as Prince Hotel). The Alyeska Prince Hotel (pictured above, I know it looks like a Stephen King novel hotel, but not a single person tried to disembowel me that night) caters to rich tourists that fought in the Spanish-American War and decided to cruise to Anchorage in the summer.  In the winter, it caters to rich dotcom billionaires who want to go ‘boarding in a state where weed is almost legal.  But in the weeks between 24 hour days and fresh powder, the Alyeska Prince is a bargain.  If you have an Alaska driver’s license, where they give a steep discount.

We got there.  The Mrs. was again demanding that her now-tenuous relationship with the food chain be restored. I found a thriving convenience store in Old Girdwood (which I think most of just slid right into the ocean when the ’64 Earthquake hit) that had sandwiches.  And wine.

I bought some wine because I thought that might cap off a relatively stressful last leg of our trip.  When I got back to the hotel, The Mrs. was working on putting The New Boy to bed.

About the Alyeska Prince: The hotel is nice. Head of State nice. In fact, when I was lurking in the parking lot, several vehicles with Alaska Legislature plates were hogging spaces.  I waited for one state senator to move his ass out of the space so I could shimmy in.  The beds were like sleeping on clouds, and customer service was great, even though I asked for two doubles, and they initially put us in a single king.  I love The Boy, but I’m not going to spend the night with his pointy elbows and knees pointed at me.

The wine was good.  The Mrs. was too exhausted to have any, so, in the interests of economy, I threw myself on her share.  And went blissfully to sleep.  Little did I know that the President of Taiwan was lurking, waiting to disrupt not this post, but probably the next one after this, or maybe the one after that.

Next: To Whittier and Beyond

 

“Remember, attraction is a three-way street. Or is it a one-way tunnel?” – Married, With Children

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Girdwood is a nice, pretty, cozy town.  The picture that I took of the hotel (last post) was taken in the morning.  I also took the picture above. There’s a tram that’s built into the hotel, and a restaurant at the top of the tram.  The idea is that the Alyeska Prince is a place where you can almost go skiing without going outside, except for the sliding down the mountain part.  One day the super wealthy will solve that problem, too.  Maybe have folks ski for them.

If it hadn’t been so overcast with such low clouds, I think I would have popped out the money to scoot up the mountain on the tram.  As it was, I think the view would have resembled being in a bag full of cotton balls.  If you’re wondering how I might know what that looks like, remember, I had an older brother.

So, we headed out of the Alyeska Prince and into Girdwood.  Many of the streets were named after other ski resorts, such as Aspen, Vail, and Davos.  I stopped at a restaurant that appeared fully functional and staffed, and was informed that they were yet to open.  Not a problem – but I’m not waiting a half an hour just to order a burger.  Not with a Hungry Boy and The Mrs. also feeling a bit peckish.  We headed down to the same strip-mall that has the State Patrol, a gas station, and a liquor store and hit the diner there.

Note:  it sounds like The Mrs. is always bugging me about going somewhere to eat.  Not the case.  I pretty much starve the family when we drive.  Also, restaurants are also a good place to make observations about Alaskans, when and where they herd together.  It is the watering hole, where gazelle and lion both fill up before clocking in.

It was The Boy’s birthday – five years, and still he refuses to learn calculus.  We stopped and had perhaps the friendliest waitress we’ve had in years.  She focused on The Boy, and treated him like royalty on his birthday.  It didn’t hurt that her birthday was two days before The Boy’s birthday.  The Boy had a cinnamon roll the size of his head.

The diner was nice – it was the kind of place that tobacco-chewing hunters were in peaceful co-existence with dredlocked euro-eco-tourist types.  The graffiti in the bathroom referenced “The Family Guy,” and the guy exiting the single-stall mens’ room indicated, “You might want to wait a bit before you go in there – wheew-ee, dunno what I ate.”

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The valley that you enter as you head to Portage Lake and Portage Glacier has the steep sides that you’d expect in a land carved by glaciers periodically over geologic-type time scales. What surprised me, however, were the constant waterfalls. They were like veins of silver etching down the sides of the mountains, and they were everywhere. These are fed by the glaciers in the mountains above the valley. They made me think of restrooms.

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It was nearly time to head to Whittier. Driving to Whittier, there’s only one road that leads in. It leads through the Anton Anderson Tunnel, which is the longest tunnel that’s a part of a road in North America. Anton Anderson was the engineer who built the tunnel during WWII, working for the army. This particular tunnel was designed for trains, and is still used by them. I believe it’s owned by the Alaska Railroad, and hence not a publicly owned road.  The nice thing is that I don’t think the railroad police could give a real ticket that you should you violate traffic regulations – maybe you’d just get a railroad ticket.  Then you could use your railroad ticket to go somewhere nice.

The tunnel is one-way, and you pay to drive it, $12 for the round-trip. Cars and trucks are staged and, in best railroad fashion, the road is scheduled – you go east for this hour, west for the next hour. As we entered the tunnel we had no idea what we would see on the other side. In a truly serious note, what we saw could not have been odder.

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Next: Whittier
After that: The President of Taiwan and Me (I think that’s how it will work out).

 

Things to Do in Denver Whittier When You’re Dead

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Whittier, Whittier.

What can you say about Whittier?

I’ll start with the bumper sticker, “Whittier: A quaint drinking village with a fishing problem.”

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(above – proof of fishing village status)

Then the comments:

My Friend Brian:  “What’d you do this weekend, John?”
John Wilder:  “Went to Whittier.”
Brian:  “Did you see the Wh-idiots?”

That may sum it up.

Whittier is a former Army supply base. Whittier has some advantages for this – it’s a deep water port that’s ice-free year round, and is a major supply location for Anchorage. Ships dock regularly and drop off stuff that gets on a train and goes to Anchorage.

All that may be nice, but you have to be just a bit off to live here. Really. Right now, everyone lives in the old Army barracks – essentially in one building. All 172 people. I did see one address that showed a PO Box number above five hundred . . . but I figure the first digit is the floor of the old army barracks that they live in, so if your PO box number were 788, you’d live in room 88 on floor 7.

All of the rooms are condos, so, the bright spot is that there is someplace in Alaska that condos make sense. Which would be one location. Whittier.  I asked what the winters were like – the answer was that winters in Whittier are hellish, but the special kind of frozen hell reserved for people from the tropics who did something really, really bad.

Folks in Whittier live with constant wind, and in the winter it gets up to 100mph shooting up the fjord that they live in. Add that to a temperature of -29°F, plus the town getting no direct sunlight (no, not above the Arctic Circle, just high mountains surround the place) from November to February. Then, add in 25 feet of average snowfall, plus being within a hundred miles or so of the fault that has produced the largest earthquake ever recorded, and you see what I mean about having to be off to live there. Whittier is the edge of the world.

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(above – more of Whittier – the long white building is where they used to practice Army stuff, but is now essentially abandoned, except for some killer freeze-tag games)

We were there in mid-September, and the touristy businesses were mostly closed. Whittier is shutting down for the winter (and, it snowed up in Fairbanks last week, so, winter is getting closer).

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(above – the harbor at Whittier – beautiful, but, it’s in Whittier)

As if all of the above weren’t enough, Whittier is also hard to get out of. The Mrs., The Boy, The New Boy and I did most things that a tourist can do in Whittier without a boat, and decided it was time to go back toward Anchorage. We drove back to the tunnel. It was 1:04 PM. The big lighted sign above the tunnel said, “NEXT TRAFFIC RELEASE 2:00 PM.” So, we went back toward the same six open stores, kicked around, took a few more photos, and generally sat in the car until 1:45. I was not going to be late and become stuck in Whittier for however much longer until the next traffic release – I was going to be there early. I mean, the lady in the shop that sold Fudge had been nice but we were ready to leave Whittier by now.
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(above – the old fuel depot at Whittier, with a looming glacier in the background, just sitting there looming)

So, back through the tunnel we went. A fairly large noise was evident when we went through, and The Boy said, “Monsters!”

I explained that those were actually ventilation fans – “air fans” I called them, and he asked why they had “Hair fans.”

I explained that those weren’t hair fans, they were air fans.

He paused a minute. “Then what are hair fans?”

Sometimes my life is an Abbot and Costello routine.

Next: Proof that the President of Taiwan is Stalking Me

From Fairbanks to Girdwood, Wilder Style

Note:  Three posts a year at the beginning of July, I toss in an old trip from my earlier blog.  This is the first of those three.  It dates back to 2005.

“Hey, buddy, how you doin’?  Pizzaland, huh?  Yeah, that’s lots of fun.  I just called to tell you that you burned my frickin’ house down!” – Aqua Teen Hunger Force

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It was time for our trip south.  The Mrs. had been agitating for some time to get the heck out of Fairbanks for a while.  We had originally thought to go earlier in the year, but decided we’d better not when we looked at how much a hotel cost in Anchorage – it was denominated in healthy kidneys.  In mid-September however, hotel rates drop by half or better, so, we rationalized this would be a good time to head out.  Because I’m cheap and want to keep at least one kidney.

In theory, the purpose of the trip was to get The Boy birthday presents in at a place that doesn’t sell groceries as well.  Living in Fairbanks is like living on an island – you drive the same roads day after day, seeing the same sites.  There is a sense of isolation up here, sort of like being trapped in an elevator with Carrot Top.  It must be worse in the villages that are unconnected by road to the rest of Alaska, maybe like being stuck in an elevator with a Carrot Top, but Carrot Top just finished a marathon after eating a LOT of spicy food.

Anyway, we saw the mountain pictured above on the way down south. It’s called Rainbow Ridge, according to the Rand-McNally.  Another picture of Rainbow Ridge is below.

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We drove right past Paxson, which, as far as I can see consists solely of a gas station/cafe/hotel contained in a single building and an airport.  At this point, The Mrs. indicates that in some fashion she’d like to be part of the food chain, preferably at the top.  Paxson, though, is pretty far from a place where you can get a hot meal, and rule one of traveling in a Wilder car is once you’ve past it when you’re driving, it no longer exists.  We kept going south.

We passed a blue highway sign with a plate, knife and fork.  The Mrs. indicated through a weary series of near-starvation gasps that she thought that there might be food there.  I slowed.

“Do you want to stop?”

No answer.  I think she did try to answer.  Maybe the hunger had made her weak.  So, we went on. Because I’m a guy, and driving is what we do.

The Mrs. thought that this might be a good time to conserve her energy by sleeping so that her body did not consume itself.  Then the chorus started from the backseat weasels:

First, The Boy: Making car sounds.

Then, The New Boy: Crying.

But they never were making noise at the same time – it was as if an invisible pendulum slowly and inevitably moved back and forth, and when it was pointing at one of The Boys, it was their turn to make enough noise so that The Mrs. could not sleep.  As we passed Dick Lake, I really wanted to stop and take a picture.  Why?  Because deep in my heart I’m still eight, and a sign that says Dick Lake.

I did miss one Alaska site to see due to The Mrs. catching some sleep – we drove right past where HAARP (High Altitude Atmospheric Research Program):

  1. Controls the weather,
  2. Controls the minds of mankind, or
  3. Conducts research into the atmosphere

You choose.

(2019 J.W.:  HAARP was a research program where they shot radio waves at the atmosphere for decades to . . . I don’t know, beat the Soviets at shooting radio waves at the atmosphere.  I believe it was mostly shut down after the Air Force decided that shooting radio waves at the atmosphere was not as fun as watching Netflix®.)

We finally reached Glennallen.  We stopped for lunch at an establishment that I believe was called the Glennallen Roadhouse. Ours was the only car, but they were open.

It’s far past tourist season, and the fifty or so tables in the restaurant were as empty as the logical portion of Susan Sarandon’s brain.  We picked a table and ordered.  For being the only people there, the waiter exchanged no witty banter, nor was he very good at keeping my coffee cup full.  We got some gas at the local station, and a plethora of signs indicated things we shouldn’t do.  Most of them were things that you wouldn’t do, anyway, if you have manners, I mean, who cleans salmon in the Ladies’ Room?  The Men’s Room, sure.  But not the Ladies’ Room.  Putting up a sign listing fifty things you don’t want your customers to do just makes you look unfriendly.  Don’t put up a sign.  If someone does something truly rude, challenge them to a duel.  Anyway, the signs cemented our thought of Glennallen as an unfriendly place.  But, then we found out why.

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Every house that we saw in Glennallen was firmly rooted in permafrost.  Which is to say, it is not rooted at all. When you put a house above permafrost, the permafrost will melt.  This isn’t global warming, it’s local warming – houses put off heat, silly.  When the permafrost melts, your foundation will be useless.  All of the new construction that we saw going on in Glennallen consisted of new houses being built on discrete pedestals.  On theses pedestals were screw-jacks so when part of the permafrost under your house melts, you go under your house and adjust the jacks, and, ta-da, your house is level again.

All of this doesn’t help if you own the house above.  It is for sale.  No bank will loan money on a house with such gross structural damage, but, if you did successfully purchase a house like the one above anyway, the realtor gives you a gas can and complementary five gallons of gas:  for the insurance fire.

Perhaps that’s why the residents of Glennallen are so angry – the price of starting an insurance fire has gone up since the price of oil is up.

Perhaps the other thing that irritates them is that they live right next to an active volcano.

Mt. Wrangell is visible from Glennallen, and has been heating up since the 1964 earthquake.  So, you live on icy muck, and there’s a volcano for your backyard.  We couldn’t see Mt. Wrangell from the road, it was too cloudy that day.

But there was more ahead – things that would shock us to the very core of our existence. Okay, that’s a lie.  Actually it was just a pretty drive was next.

________________________________________________________

Chapter 2

Peasant: “Who are you?” King Arthur: “Your King.” Peasant: “I didn’t vote for you.” King Arthur: “You don’t vote for kings.” – M. Python

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So, we headed back west from Glennallen. The permafrost, as shown by the prevailing taiga, still surrounded us. The road likewise showed the effects of the permafrost, maintaining the consistency of Fruit by the Foot® thrown over piles of spare change. Which is, I believe, standard road construction technique in Alaska.

The mountain above was visible for about the first twenty minutes out of Glennallen. It looked like it had been sprinkled in gold – with the sunlight, as far as I could see in the panorama before me, shining only on its slopes.

The rest of the trip took us up and down through winding roads. The Glenn Highway is on the north side of a large valley, and never dips down.  The north side of this valley consists of the Talkeetna Mountains. The south has the Chugach Mountains.  The Chugach Mountains were the epicenter of the 1964 earthquake, a 9.2 earthquake.  Besides containing more force than Madonna’s breath after a garlic-laden dinner, this earthquake lasted five minutes.  Five minutes isn’t long when you’re watching the season finale of Battlestar Galactica, but it’s forever if you’re being shaken around like a tiny chew toy by a frenzied teacup poodle.  These mountains and the pretty things we have in Alaska don’t come free – we gotta pay with the earthquakes and volcanoes from time to time.

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The Chugach are also covered in glaciers like a pile of fries are covered in ketchup. We passed three major glaciers, and the last of them, the Matanuska, is shown below. I pulled off the side of the road on what looked like a rough trail to get this picture. I could see the campers and 4×4’s of moose hunters beyond, so I figured the road would work for me. The road narrowed alarmingly, with the passenger side dropping off about eight feet. I soon saw that the road that looked like it headed to the parking lot below (as we continued to climb) was really a trail for four-wheeled ATV’s. I imagined it starting to go in directions that my 4×4 could not follow.  Fortunately, the trail leveled off widened out and I could see a way to get back out.  This is not to say, however, that The Mrs. was entirely pleased with this lack of planning on my part.  But angels do follow foolish husbands or at least one did that day.

After a few more hours, we finally ended up in Palmer.  Palmer is nestled between mountains and looks like it was conceived in a dream.  One thing The Boy immediately noticed is that the McDonald’s sign was about three feet off of the ground, as were many of the signs on newer businesses.  I figured it must be a new ordinance, to preserve the beauty of Palmer.

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This is in contrast to Fairbanks. Recently, the Fairbanks-North Star Borough (remember, we don’t have counties up here) tried to pass an ordinance that would allow them to enforce existing ordinances.  I know that sounds silly, but though there may be ordinances on the books, there’s only one employee that has that theoretical power for a borough of about 90,000 people.  If the lawyer for the borough gets around to it, he might send you a nasty letter, telling you please, please, fence that junkyard that is your front yard.  If you don’t?  He may send you another stern letter.

So it’s simple and logical that the borough would pass an ordinance that would allow them to enforce their ordinances, right?
Maybe in Fort Wayne. Maybe in Palmer. Not Fairbanks.

The residents of the borough did me proud. To quote one resident, “We came to Alaska to get away from this!” According to the News-Miner, there was a near riot. The Assembly rejected the ordinance.

There are damn few places you have the freedom from silly regulations of local government, telling you what you can and can’t do on your own land. This is (mostly) one of them.

Amen.

Next: The Hotel and The President of Taiwan.

Civil War Weather Report #2, Censorship, Stalin, and a Bunch of Links

“Have you any idea how successful censorship is on TV? Don’t know the answer? Hmm. Successful, isn’t it?” – Max Headroom

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11:45pm – fifteen minutes to midnight.  Yes, it’s subjective, and it’s based on the countdown, published last month (Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming).  We’re still at CivCon 6 – People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.

In this issue:  Front Matter – Censorship Update– John Mark’s Video and Criticism – Updated Civil War II Index – Who Benefits? – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the second issue of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts will be a bit different than the other posts here at Wilder Wealthy and Wise – they will consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War II.  My intent is to update these on the first Monday of every month.

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John Wilkes Paintbooth (Idea via user Miles Long at The Burning Platform)

There has been a pretty significant interest in Civil War II – it has generated more emails to me than any other topic I’ve written about, with a great number of links to relevant information that you’ll see below.  It’s also resulted in about a dozen book suggestions, and I’ve bought or downloaded every one of your suggestions.  I haven’t had time to read even 10% of the books yet, but I can tell the suggestions are rock solid.  Thank you.  Please feel free to contribute more suggestions of links or books either in the comments below or directly to me at movingnorth@gmail.com – I won’t use your name (from e-mails) unless explicitly given permission, and I won’t directly quote your email unless explicitly given permission, but I may quote my answers in a way that doesn’t violate your privacy.

Censorship Update

Why is censorship an issue in Civil War II?  Censorship is a measure of how those in power (either political or economic) fear an idea and how polarized they have become.  Most censorship in the past had been based on the sexual content of the book or movie.  Now it’s based on ideas that are dangerous.  Which ideas?  Depends on the day.

I know it says “Update” but this is really the first version, so technically the first “update” will be next month.  There has been more censorship in the United States in the past year than at any point in my adult life.  This level of censorship is more frightening than anything I’ve ever seen, except for the latest Democratic presidential debates.

YouTube© is the real star of censorship in June.  Comedian/journalist Steven Crowder has been a long-time YouTube® broadcaster who is generally on the mainstream “Right” side of the political world.  He likes guns.  Doesn’t like abortion.  He is not extreme in any real sense of the word.  But as a comedian, one of the things he does regularly is mock people.  Which people?  Everyone.  I won’t go into the details (you can look it up) but a group of Leftists decided Crowder should be banned from YouTube™ since he made a lispy-Leftist journalist who is an ethnic and sexual minority feel bad.

YouTube© responded to this contrived moral outrage by making it so Crowder couldn’t get money from YouTube® ads – oddly this increased Crowder’s income as thousands of people bought merchandise directly from Crowder’s company.

End of story?  No.

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Soon enough, YouTube™ will consist of nothing more than makeup videos, Buzzfeed®, and whatever else the New York Times© says is okay.

Forty other channels were either banned, demonetized, or had videos deleted.  I won’t go so far as to say that these channels are all mainstream like Steven Crowder, they aren’t.  But I am not aware of any content that called for violence or did anything more than spread “dangerous ideas.”  In a crowning bit of irony, YouTube® censored a video where a Google™ (owner of YouTube™) executive talked about how Google© wouldn’t allow another “Trump situation.”  This was presumably via using their ability to manipulate what search results people see when they use Google™.

Twitter® had also purged significant figures on the Right, most prominent among them James Woods, who has since given up on the platform after multiple bans despite having over 2,000,000 followers.

Let’s take Amazon, who in 2010 said that “Amazon does not support or promote hatred or criminal acts, however, we do support the right of every individual to make their own purchasing decisions.”  This was a fairly absolute position, especially since Amazon was defending selling a pro-pedophilia book.

Not so much now.  Amazon has now banned dozens of books, and created entire categories of products that cannot be sold.   You can’t get a Confederate flag t-shirt from Amazon, but you can certainly get a Stalin shirt.  This is despite the fact that Stalin killed (In the World Murder Olympics, Communists Take Gold and Silver!) more people in one year – 3.9 million – than the total number of slaves in the United States in 1850 – 3 million.  Sure, it sucked to be a slave.  But it was certainly worse to be a slave to communism that was starved to death.

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With apologies to Arthur (LINK), whose tagline I mangled for this one.

I tried to come up with a list of censored things, but even the censored things seem to be mainly censored.  Orwell would be proud.

John Mark’s Civil War 2 Video and Criticism

This video was suggested by several of you, including Shinmen Takezo who suggests you listen to all of John Mark’s videos.  I’ve seen this one, and plan to watch the others when I have a spare minute.

I think Mr. Mark is spot on with commentary that Trump is the last Republican president that will be elected.  I wrote about this back in November of 2018(Trump: The Last President?).  It has a click-bait-y title, which might explain why it went viral and got over 120,000 pageviews on Zero Hedge©.

John Mark reviews an article purportedly written by a “Red Team” (bad guy) member of a war game where the Right revolts against the government and the Left.  My response is in italics, or braille if you don’t clean your screen very often.

First Vulnerability:  The electrical grid is dispersed and easy to take down into most cities because it is impossible to guard.  The front won’t be against just the Right, it will also be against their own (Leftist) cities.

I agree.  The United States is built as a free society, and so is all of our infrastructure.  It is devastatingly vulnerable.  In one of the links below, you’ll see how a $0.02 match took down a $20,000,000 bridge.  And that was on accident.

Second Vulnerability:  30% will revolt.  Most on the Right have guns.  There are 400 million guns, 8 trillion bullets in the United States – most in the hand of the Right.  Ten million strongly on the Right.  Tanks and airplanes don’t matter as much as the Left thinks.   There might be 2 million in the United States military, and over 60% voted for the Right.  There are 20 million former military.

Total would be about 2 million available forces for revolutionary suppression (including civilian police), if the active military did not revolt.

I agree.  The people, especially former military, on the Right can do whatever they want.  Tanks and airplanes didn’t win World War II on the Eastern Front – the winning weapon was the mortar and the rifle – anti-personnel weapons.  The Soviets also accomplished it only by throwing millions of bodies into combat.  Bodies that will be tough for the Left to get outside of conscription.

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I think there’s an Uber joke in here somewhere.

Third Vulnerability:  The Left lives in consuming cities, the Right lives in the land that produces food and stuff.  The concentrated cities of the Left produce a lot of porn and girls with daddy-issues, but not much food.

I agree.  They are vulnerable, though the porn and Facebook™ drought might be tough on some.

Where do I disagree? 

The Ultra-Violent and Nukes.

Sure, we know the Starbucks® Socialists and Latte Lenins won’t fight.  Why wouldn’t the government take MS-13 and arm them and turn them loose to “make examples” of small downs, one after another?  If they were losing, they would certainly do that.  And they could scrape together a pilot and a nuke or two to take down a rebel capital city.  If they were losing, they would.     

The Right could make a reasonable partisan force, especially when you look that probably 50% to 75% of the military would defect and train people on the Right, bringing along a nice batch of weapons (think grenades, C4, etcetera) to the farm to teach the rest of the football team.  I don’t think Jed would need to teach the boys to shoot, and I think they’d learn to use that mortar and grenade launcher that he “liberated” from the Marines very quickly.  

Logistics and Geography

The Left can be resupplied via air and ship.  “Emergency” supplies would head into coastal cities and sustain them forever, though Denver would fall soon enough.  Would Russia supply the heartland while the Chinese supplied the West Coast?  I have no idea – I think they’d do what.  Regardless, France would soon surrender.

Also, I think there would be a nearly immediate media clamp down.   The media supports the Left, no matter what.  They would parrot the Leftist line until the studios were taken from them by force.

I think that this is far too optimistic, but I also think the odds are lower the more time passes.

Civil War Index:

Here’s the state for this month.

Economic:  +10.42.  Unemployment is the same – interest rates took a huge drop, and the Dow was (slightly) up.  Increasing economic is good.

Political Instability:  -46%.  I think that the start of the debates and the poor poll numbers of “any democratic candidate” against Trump has calmed the Left politically by a lot.  Lower instability is good.

Censorship:  Originally this was going to be a candidate index.  Sadly, there’s no data.  How scary is it that you can’t find good data on censorship?

Interest in Violence:  Up 7% this month.  Not horrible, but not good.

Illegal Aliens:  Up 24% last month to 144,000.  144,000 is more than have been deported since Trump got into office.  This shows increasing instability south of the border, or lower fear of deportation.  Both are bad.

Eventually these will be graphs, but a graph with one point is . . . boring.  Maybe in August.

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Quote From a Failed Candidate to be The One:  “Is the Red Pill gluten free?  Also, is it vegan?”

One measure I thought was pretty good was from Anonymousse over at The Burning Platform:  “One good metric may be the spread between political poll projections and reality/results. I’m thinking that gauges just how “free” people feel about saying versus what they do. Something I’ve noticed widening over the years.”

I’d like to do this one, but the data points are just too far apart.  This would be useful information over the course of a decade, but won’t be much use monthly.  I think Anonymousse is right – people don’t feel good about sharing if they’re going to vote for an “unpopular” candidate on the Right, severely skewing the polls.

What do I mean by unpopular?

We were on vacation two years ago, and decided to stop at a national monument.  We got out.  The plates on our car are from a very red state – my county went 85% for Trump.  As we got out of the car to stretch our legs and see the monument, we spied a guy birdwatching.  He put his binoculars on our car.  He was about 150 feet away.

Birdwatch Bill, yelling:  “Who’d you vote for?”

John Wilder, being sassy, yelling back:  “Starts with a T!”

Birdwatch Bill, muffled:  “Ashshof.”

John Wilder:  “What?”

Birdwatch Bill, with anger, yelling:  “You heard me, A****le.”  It rhymes with tadpole.

I was stunned, I mean, I don’t deny being a tadpole, but I didn’t think you could see it from 150 feet away.  The Mrs. was in the bathroom, and I’m thankful that she didn’t hear him, since she would have broken him like a twig – she handles my light work.

After saying that, Birdwatch Bill scurried and jumped in his car, and sped off.

After hearing that story, The Mrs. was adamant that we not move to that state, even when I had a job offer there, even though I think she’d like to hear Birdwatch Bill’s yelp as she gave him a nuclear wedgie.

Who Benefits?

Whenever I see something that doesn’t make sense, I try to understand what could possibly be causing it.  When conditions are better for minority racial and ethnic groups than ever in the history of the country, and the agitation increases, I have to ask, who benefits?  When the push for segregation comes from, not the Right but the Left, I ask, who benefits?

When I see us moving on a seemingly certain path towards war, I have to ask, who benefits?  Probably more on this in a future post.

Links From Readers:

Obviously I only stand by 100% of my own writing.  Here is some interesting stuff sent in by readers.  Feel free to take some of the burden off of Ricky, and send me more.  And if you send it in an email, please let me know if I may credit you.

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See, a chain link photo in the “Links” page.  I’m witty that way.

Thomas Chittum’s Civil War Two  – I’m not finished with this one yet, but very interesting.  A 178 page .pdf file – this was listed by “Mark” at The Burning Platform.

Photos of Bosnia during and after their civil war from “Mygirl…maybe” over at The Burning Platform.

Update on the State of Jefferson vs. New California from user “Martel’s Hammer” at The Burning Platform.

Who is behind Antifa?, via AC at The Burning Platform.

From Ricky:

Pentagon prepping for civil unrest?

Review of the risk of civil unrest (presentation).

Peter Turchin predicts violence in 2020.

France and Social Unrest – Tied to Loss of Family and Religion

Perhaps my favorite link from Ricky – the Partisan Conflict Index – worth watching. 

Brazos reminds us that there is precedence for using the troops against American civilians. 

User “MN Steel” reminds us that the damage a single match can do.

From my E-mail:

First is a blog I often read, Metallicman on what liberals have in store for conservatives.  Not pretty. 

And more from Ricky!

This one from an Australian perspective.

NY Magazine – wondering if it isn’t time to split up.  My add (from HBO®) was for the series Divorce.  Hmmm.

From the Federalist, again about “divorce” of the United States.

From other emails . . .

A great article from Mary Christine over at The Burning Platform, looking at Kansas and Missouri during the Civil War and how partisans will form – will Civil War Two look more like the personal fights along the Kansas and Missouri borders?

Charity, The Terminator, and Flat Tires

“What kind of cruel charity charges orphans $500 to eat dinner?” – News Radio 

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The Mrs. seems rather narrow-minded about certain donations.

Before Pop Wilder passed away, I would go to visit him on a regular basis.  After graduating from college, almost all of my trips and time off from work (when we didn’t stay home) was spent visiting Pop at our ancestral homeland in the mountains around Zorro Falls.  I called the trips to go visit Pop “Obili-cations” because I felt obligated to go to see him on my vacations.  Sure, I had a choice on how to spend those 10 days of vacation a year, but I also knew that the number of hours I’d ever get to spend with him were like the collective I.Q. of Congress:  finite and rapidly shrinking.

To me, these trips were important.  I figured* that I had spent over 99% of the hours I’d ever spend with Pop already.  I had 1% or less of those hours left.  These hours were precious and few.  Given that perspective, I didn’t really mind spending every vacation day going to see him up at Zorro Falls.  Now that I’m a father, I’m very glad I made those trips since it now gives me the excuse to guilt my own children into doing the same thing.

While we visited, I’d often go to church with Pop on Sunday mornings.  Pop had lived within thirty miles of Zorro Falls his entire life.  This church we’d go to was the same small church where we went when I was a child.  It was the same church where, as a five year old, I had colored Jesus’ face bright purple during Sunday School one Sunday morning.

Sunday School Teacher, leaning to look at my coloring page:  “Johnny, you know that Jesus wasn’t really  purple, right?”

Young Johnny Wilder:  “He’s God.  He can be any color he wants to be.”  I never even bothered to look up at her.  I was busy coloring the Apostle Matthew’s skin in silver, having finished with Jesus.  It was only years later that I realized that Matthew had been a Terminator™ sent back from the future to stop Jesus from giving birth to John Conner®.  Now, at last, the Bible made sense!

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Jesus could also be a Terminator© if he wanted to be and if he could obtain the rights from James Cameron.  I think that would have made the Crucifixion even more interesting . . .

Sunday School Teacher had no response to my stunningly brilliant “purple Jesus” logic, but did tell Ma Wilder.  Ma Wilder got years of mileage out of that story, though I wish she wouldn’t have told it to the guys on my wrestling team.

But back to the story:  I was on an obli-cation, and I met Pop at his place and went to the church with him.  We sat down in the pew right up front since Pop claimed that the artillery during his European vacation in the 1940’s hadn’t been particularly good for his hearing.  Sissy.

The Pastor began his sermon.  Now, I always really liked that Pastor – he had been friends with the family for years.  He had officiated at Ma Wilder’s funeral.  The topic of his sermon that day was charity.

I am a strong believer in charity.  I think that there are few things that are better for the human soul than giving freely of one’s time or money to help another worthy person.  Maybe Ruffles® or Ding-Dongs© are close, but they’re still not quite as good as charity.

I look back on my life and feel really good about the times I was able to help someone.  I recall stopping at a convenience store while travelling for business.  I was looking for a book store, because I’d just finished the novel I was reading.  The clerk told me that, “This is Chicago, nearest book store is . . . twenty miles that way, at the mall.”  He then did something unusual.  He looked me in the eye, and pointed at a tiny redhead, maybe 19, standing by a car in the rain, very out of place in the mean streets of south Chicago.  “She needs your help, man.”

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Unlike a vegan, I can change a flat tire.

Her tire was flat.  She was trying to go to meet her fiancé at the airport.  He was coming home from Iraq that night.

“Can you help me?”

I changed her tire in the rain.  She didn’t have an umbrella, but she did have a poster board that she held over me while I changed the tire.  As I tightened up the last lug nut, I stood up.  “Okay, you’re good to go.”

“How much do I owe you?”

“No, ma’am.  That’s not why I did it.  Go see your fiancé.”

I still feel good when I tell that story.  And I’m not telling it to brag – any person reading this blog could have and would have done the same – I’m no more virtuous than any of you.  But I am happy that I was there that night, to help that young girl get to the gate and throw her arms around her man as he came back from combat.  The act of charity probably helped me more than it helped her – I know I remember it, but I’d bet she doesn’t.  The fairy tale ended with her at the gate.  The supporting characters (me, for instance) were lost in the arms of her man, details that won’t make the final version of the story she has told her children.

Which is how it should be.

Anyway, I agreed with the pastor when talked about charity.  Helping people is good.  But then the pastor continued, “And let us pray that Congress will act to give money to these poor people.”

He lost me right there.

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Is it just me or does Jesus look a lot like Bruce Springsteen?  I guess he is The Boss, after all.

I know that it’s probably a sin to be really, really pissed off in church, but there I was, in the second row, angry.  And it’s probably a double-secret sin to be really, really pissed off at the Pastor.  Thankfully, the church had just had a new roof installed so I was shielded from immediate lightning strikes from on high.  And, if I’m being honest with you Internet, if a “stray” lightning bolt was going to hit me, it would have hit me far sooner than that day – being irritated with a Pastor is probably pretty low on my list of sinful behavior.  Thankfully, Christianity has forgiveness embedded into it, because I certainly need it.

But why did I get so angry at the nice Pastor?  Charity, when done by an individual is enriching.  It helps both parties.  It helps me.  It helps tiny redheads with flat tires.  It is an act that transcends – a willing gift to someone who will never be able to repay the gift to the giver.

Charity, when done by the government breeds resentment on those taxed.  If they don’t want to participate in this charity, men with guns will come and take them to prison.  Government forced charity breeds resentment of that very charity.

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Billions, trillions?  Doesn’t matter.  It’s just other people’s money.

Government charity also breeds resentment by the recipient.  Why didn’t they get more free stuff?  It leads to bad incentives – why work when you’d lose the government benefits?  The final straw is it destroys the dignity and independence of those that receive it.  And if the program is set up poorly, it actually provides a disincentive for people to get or remain married.  Government charity is certainly worse on the recipient than on the (unwilling) giver even though both of them come to hate the systems.

True charity makes two winners, government charity just manages to create anger and division.  Government charity is the epitome of a program designed by Democrats – it takes a great goal (we all like the concept of charity) and turns it into a bureaucratic mess enforceable only through coercion and penalty.

If it stopped there with just that mess, it might be survivable.

Government has now opened these incentives to any person who can cross our border.  Get across, and get free healthcare.  Free food.  Free housing.  Need a cell phone?  A ticket to Des Moines?  We can help.  Approximately four billion people would like to live in the United States because their countries suck.  They can’t get nearly as much free stuff, and they’ve heard of the economic miracle of the United States.

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Charity is like working – it’s great when other people do it!

This version of “charity” has created a group of millions of angry, unwilling donors, while at the same time creating millions of resentful, angry recipients.  Thankfully, there is no reason we can’t have a billion resentful, angry recipients living in the United States tomorrow.

Sounds like another successful government program.  Yay!

*By my spreadsheet, I had spent half the time I was ever going to spend with Pop Wilder by the age of eight.  By the time I went off to college, I had spent about 94% of the hours I would ever spend with Pop.  If I had moved back to the same town, or gone into the family business of firewood polishing together, obviously that would have been a different story.  I’m only trying to note that these hours with family are precious, and are gone much faster than you might imagine.  Feel free to use this to make your children feel guilty.

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For your coloring enjoyment.  Or colouring in Canada, eh.

Seneca, The Thing, Changing Careers, and Little Ben Shapiro

“It could have imitated a million life-forms on a million planets. It could change into any one of them at any time. Now, it wants life-forms on Earth.” – The Thing

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This bust is Seneca on one side, and on the other Socrates, all at a museum in Berlin.  Both guys are carved out of the same block of marble, which is kind of creepy and reminds me of The Thing.

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Okay, it’s not creepy – it’s not like Joe Biden was involved.

“Think of those who not by fault of inconsistency but by lack of effort are too unstable to live as they wish, but only to live as they have begun.” – Seneca

What Seneca was saying was that you should strive, and you should persevere . . . but only up to a point.  Whereas you can start your career as a snake milker, there is no law that says you can’t finish your career as a Senior Kindle™ Evangelist.  It’s even easier to make that transition if you’re Jeff Bezos’ ex-brother in law.  It’s even easier than that if you have . . . special pictures of Jeff Bezos.

In the words of Winston Churchill, “Never give in, never, never, never, never, in nothing, great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense.”  Even Churchill notes that at some point your life ceases being an inspiration for people to aspire to, and becomes a case study and example of ludicrous obsession.  Does that remind you *cough* of anyone *cough* Hillary *cough*?

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I don’t know, maybe she lost because of an image thing?  Or was it because she was The Thing?

In your life, based on circumstance, you will find that a certain amount of flexibility is required.  Not necessarily “Soviet-bloc gymnast” level flexibility, but at the minimum “middle-aged, middle-school art teacher” flexibility.  The economy will change.  Jobs will change.  And as you age, your abilities will change.  This will make a career change not only likely, but inevitable for most people during their lives.

I’d prepared a bunch of my notes before I read the recent story in The Atlantic titled, “Your Professional Decline is Coming (Much) Sooner Than You Think.”  It’s worth a read, since it appears it was written by their one non-communist writer.  One great quote from the article is from Alex Dias Ribeiro, who is a retired Formula 1 race car driver:

“Unhappy is he who depends upon success to be happy.”

Alex retired from driving in 1979 at the age of 31, never having finished higher than second place in a major race.  I’d make fun of Alex, but he’s certainly done better than I have in Formula 1 racing, where I’m not really sure my butt would even fit into a Formula 1 race car.  But I totally am a better blogger.  What, he has 38,000 Facebook® followers and has devoted his life to being a humble Christian pastor?  Does he floss as often as I do?

He does?  Dangit.  He has perfect teeth.  At 70.  Crap.

Alex’s commentary and early retirement age are the point of the article:  some abilities decline with age.  As much as a forty-year-old man might identify as a twenty-year-old, he isn’t.  Alex understood that at 31 he was past his peak as a driver and has dealt with it with far greater humility and grace than, well, me.

What do you mean that bragging about your achievements when you were in high school is  after, well, 22?

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I’m sure they’re all totally impressed that I knew all the lyrics to that brand-new Bon Jovi album, Slippery When Wet.

As anyone who is older than 25 knows, physical ability goes down with age.  This decline is not linear.  Think of physical ability as your hairline.  Ever see a seventy year old with a thicker head of hair than when they were forty?  I mean, unless it’s Joe Biden?  Nope.

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He says that being around young people keeps him young.  I think he means young doctors?

My physical ability declines with age.  Shower drain clogs caused by my hair decline with age.  Does that mean everything is diminished as I age?  Nope.  I have a luxurious, flowing mane of ear and back hair.  Sadly, I can feel the wind blowing through my back hairs, and all it takes for me to feel that air flow is the breeze from a bathroom fan.  The good news is that I can now knit myself a sweater entirely made of myself.  Well, I could if I could knit.  And if I lived in California.  I think that they’d make me move out of the county if I did that kind of creepy “back hair sweater knitting” in Modern Mayberry.

The good news is one other thing happens as you age – mental abilities change.

When you’re young, you have a greater amount of “fluid intelligence.”  Fluid intelligence is the fuel for innovation.  It’s what makes a five year old with a screwdriver take apart a $300 digital camera (yes, that really happened, and I let him live).  Fluid intelligence is the cause of new theories, the skill to solve novel problems, the ability to unhook a bra with only one hand.  Fluid intelligence seems to peak at or just before the age of 30.

The article further references a couple of examples that illustrate the problem of declining fluid intelligence:  Back before computers and high-speed imaging, an umpire was an umpire and the only difference between one umpire and another umpire was how fat they were.  Now, Major League© umpires can be objectively and scientifically graded.  Did that fast ball catch the corner of the strike zone?  Was that curveball really just outside?  Unlike in 1950, this can be checked in 2019.

Statistics show the best home plate umpires are, on average, about 33 years old.  The worst home plate umpires average about 56 years old.  It may not be a coincidence that the mandatory retirement age for air traffic controllers is 56, which is an oddly specific number.  I guess fastballs over the plate at Yankee® Stadium are just another bit of air traffic.

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You can trust them!  Communism will surely work this time!

Hang on, old people – don’t pack your bags and get ready to board the trains for the new “Sanders-Cortez Leisure Camps” just yet.  There’s another type of intelligence – crystallized intelligence.  This intelligence is based around taking the information that you know and combining it (plus new facts) to form a synthesized view of the world.  That’s a whole lot of syllables that just mean one simple old word:  wisdom.  The best news is that crystallized intelligence doesn’t decline until senility hits.  Wisdom is accessible until you’re drooling.

This explains why rockstars in their seventies play music they wrote when they were twenty or thirty.  Writing music requires fluid intelligence.  For example:  Aerosmith hasn’t written a new song since well before Steven Tyler started looking like your poorly aging lesbian aunt.

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(S)he was lead-off hitter in the softball league that consisted entirely of stray cats that (s)he kept in the garage.  They did win the championship, which was a bouquet of catnip and chardonnay.

Signs of decreasing fluid intelligence:

  • Your VCR clock is constantly blinking 12:00.
  • Interruptions tend to make your mind wander . . . oh, look, a baby wolf.
  • You still have a VCR.
  • You have no idea why you came into the kitchen.
  • You don’t really care that the VCR is constantly blinking 12:00 because the last time you tried to fix it you changed all the menus to Mandarin and had to wait for a 10 year-old to fix it.
  • Why am I in the kitchen again? I swear, I had it figured out last time.
  • You leave stickers on your laptop, because you’ll be getting a new one in the next eight years, so why bother?
  • Was it ice? A beer?  Eggs?  No, I’d have to cook eggs.  Oh, that’s it!  I left ramen® in the microwave!

If your dream is to be a groundbreaking theoretical physicist in your sixties?  I’m sorry, it’s not going to happen.  But teachers, historians, and bloggers all rely on crystallized intelligence.  Innovation is not going to happen, but thinking deeply and combining new and old facts and ideas will happen.  It’s recognizing that you’ve seen the patterns in society before.  It is wisdom, which consists of rubbing your chin and saying . . . “What were you thinking when you decided to try create a musical comedy about the Ferguson riots?”

Wisdom is asking that one additional question before you bomb Iran.  It’s why the framers of the Constitution put a minimum age on being President – you have to have wisdom to do the job.  Honestly, at my current age I think the Constitutional minimum is too low.  Thirty five?  No.  I’d put the minimum at forty five, unless they had no idea who a Kardashian was.

My brother and I were talking about on the phone about a decade ago.  The organization he was working at had just hired a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO) for their billion-dollar organization.  The new CFO was 30.  My comment to my brother was, “Thirty?  Are they nuts?  He’s not ready.  He has the wisdom of a houseplant.  He has the insight of an ice cube.”

My brother’s comment:  “But John, he’s really smart.”

A year later that CFO had flamed out and had gone, umm, more than a little nuts and they had to fire him.  My brother related several friendly conversations he had with the CFO where the CFO sounded borderline paranoid-schizophrenic.  The CFO wasn’t really crazy, though.  The position had just been too much for him to handle mentally.  It had been unfair to put him in a position where he had such responsibility so young, with so little wisdom.

The focus of life is different after fluid intelligence drops – it has to be.  You won’t have a sixty year old winning many high school track meets, but you won’t have any decent life advice coming from little Benny Shapiro, either.

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Something tells me Shapiro . . . is no Seneca.  Unless he grows an extra head.

Seneca bust photo:  Marcus Cyron [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)]

The Left, Doublethink, and Individual Thought

“That’s an interesting point.  Come on, let’s get into character.” – Pulp Fiction

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Such stunning bravery and individualism!

Not quite a year ago a meme broke out into the wild – the Non-Player-Character (NPC) meme.  The meme originated with video games.  In video games that follow a storyline, there are various characters that exist only to move the story forward.  While you can play a video game character that’s a 4’2” Asian female bodybuilder with tattoos and bright red hair, you can’t play as an NPC.

NPCs can create unplanned humor because they are programmed and react in only very predictable ways.  Slug one, and they don’t care.  Meet up with the same NPC for the tenth time?  It’s like you never met before.  They have no original ideas.  They exist only to fulfill their programmed destiny.

The connection made, probably at 4Chan back in September of last year is that an NPC is really a great analogy for a Leftist that has given up completely on the idea of independent, individual thought.  The contradictions that are contained within liberalism abound, but even more striking is the degree of programming present.  An example:

Stephen Colbert is a late night talk show host who is famous for hating President Trump.  In the show after former FBI® Director James Comey was fired, Colbert mentioned Comey was fired.  The crowd was used to Comey being a villain.  Why was Comey a villain?  On the eve of the election of 2016, Comey announced a new investigation of the “newly-found e-mails” off of convicted creep Anthony Weiner that cost Hillary the election.

The crowd cheered because Comey got fired.  Until Colbert reprogrammed them that, instead of being a bad guy, Comey was now a good guy.  See for yourself:

Today, obviously, Comey is a hero of the Left.  I would imagine that, if you asked a Leftist, you’d find that Comey was always a hero and they didn’t recall at all that they ever thought he was an evil Trump supporter.  It’s like a quote from Orwell’s 1984:

And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed – if all records told the same tale — then the lie passed into history and became truth.  “Who controls the past,” ran the Party slogan, “controls the future:  who controls the present controls the past.”  And yet the past, though of its nature alterable, never had been altered.  Whatever was true now was true from everlasting to everlasting.  It was quite simple.  All that was needed was an unending series of victories over your own memory.  “Reality control” they called it:  in Newspeak, “doublethink.”

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And the worst thing is when the update is downloading that the NPCs can’t do anything else until they reboot.

When you view it from outside, it’s easily seen.  But from the inside, it’s not.  The basic contradictions are astonishing in their scope and presentation of Doublethink:

  • Pregnant men. Perfectly normal.
  • Islamic feminism. No philosophical inconsistencies here!
  • Roe versus Wade is written in stone, but the Constitution is a “living, changeable” document.
  • Transitioning a nine-year-old to a new sex is normal and healthy. Has been going on for thousands of years.
  • Speech you don’t agree with is violence. I’m triggered!
  • Violence you agree with is free speech. Punch a fascist!

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No, surely it’s not that.

I could go on in naming examples, and likely so could you.  Are there contradictory views on the Right?  Certainly, but they’re mostly not at core of the philosophy on the Right as they are the very core of the philosophy of the Left.  And, unlike the Left, the Right typically doesn’t end it all in a Purity Spiral (Robespierre, Stalin, Mao, Mangos and A Future That Must Not Be).

I’ll even admit that one time, I was an NPC on the Right.  There was a point (long ago, college time) when a Democratic congresscritter proposed a national tax cut.  President George H.W. Bush opposed it.  So I opposed it.

Huh?

I had always been for tax cuts as a general rule.  I stopped and thought . . . Why would I support not cutting taxes that the Democrats want to cut?  Just because they’re Democrats?

I decided that the Democrat congresscritter was right.  Cut the taxes.  Obviously, that solved all the problems that our nation has.  Oops.

The cure for being an NPC is thought.  Since that time, I regularly examine what I think – this blog is a part of that process.  I also examine why I think it.  If the reason that I believe something is because other people believe it, is that a good reason?

No, it’s not really a good reason.  Unless you’re a Leftist.

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I think the reason Leftists are more susceptible to the Doublethink that drives them into the NPC cult is that they’re more r-selected – they come from an environment that values conformity and group inclusion.  I write about r-selection versus K-selection here (r/K Selection Theory, or Why Thanksgiving is Tense* (for some people)).  r-selected animals, like rabbits, move in groups.  They’re prey animals, and know that the only safety that they have is in numbers.  Doing something that’s different than the herd singles you out.  It gets you killed.  Rightists are K-selected – they’re predators.  Individual behavior is not only tolerated, it’s the only way to get your genes propagated.

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Okay this wasn’t an original, but was too good to pass up.  I think it came from 4chan.

This explains several things about the Left.  They reacted so quickly to the NPC meme that they had NPC-themed Twitter® accounts banned within a month of the meme making widespread appearance.  How do you know something bothers someone?  When it creates such a strong reaction.

Are all Leftists NPCs?  Nope.  I know a few I can discuss politics with and we can still be friends.  They admit when I have a point.  I admit when they have a point – a few very popular posts have had their genesis with conversations I was having with Left-leaning friends.  But discussing politics with the typical NPC should be avoided.  There is nothing more personal to them than the ideas that they have that don’t impact them at all.  Really.  Why would a fifty-year-old cat lady be more passionate about illegal aliens than anything else in her life?

By definition, a religion punishes heresy and blasphemy above all else.  To call NPCs cult members might sound strong, but the reality is that they probably are.  Notice the reaction when a newly-revealed religious revelation presents itself:  “DACA”, “living wage”, “Maxine Waters is not the reincarnation of James Brown’s hair”, “religion of peace”, “bake my cake”, or “white privilege” begins.

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I’d call it a tie.  But unlike Maxine, James liked “Living in America.”

To be against any of these is to be filled with hate.  Being left alone is not an option.  Having no opinion is not an option.  From their perspective, the only opinion you can have is the correct opinion – their opinion.

Me, I think I’ll keep thinking for myself.  But remember, that’s dangerous.

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The Roman Emperor, The Navy SEAL, Elizabeth Warren, and Your Future

“You were last seen hiking up Mount Ego.” – Frasier

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Jimmy Page could NOT believe it when he found out that Marcus Aurelius would be available as a lead singer.

I know what you’re saying, “John Wilder, how can you be so freakin’ funny three times a week every Monday, Wednesday and Friday?”  The answer is simple – my goal to be the funniest person on the Internet, with the exception of those anchors on CNN®.  I mean, how do they keep a straight face?

That goal requires work.  Really.  Oh, sure, “work” includes researching things I’m interested in anyway and (sometimes) drinking a glass of wine or two while I work on punchlines.  But I won’t hit publish or stop writing until it’s done.  And done means I’m happy as a twit in a toga with a toupee.  Speaking of  noble noggins in nighties, Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius (notice that smooth transition?) said:

Don’t let your reflection on the whole sweep of life crush you.  Don’t fill your mind with all the bad things that still might happen.  Stay focused on the present situation and ask yourself whey it’s so unbearable and can’t be survived.

Whenever I quote him, I remind everyone that Marcus Aurelius was the Emperor of Rome while it was still at the height of its power.  This man had the freedom to make decisions on the literal life and death of citizens and non-citizens alike.  He was, no joking, the most powerful man in the world.

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What’s the fun of telling the Stormtroopers© that “These aren’t the droids® you’re looking for,” when the Stormtroopers™ work for you?  It’s like they were thinking, “Okay, play along, the Emperor is doing cosplay again.”

But despite this worldly power, Marcus took the time to write down his personal philosophy.  It wasn’t to pass down to posterity, it was for him.  His book is called Meditations because these were the things he meditated about on a daily basis.  These were the problems and doubts and issues he dealt with in his everyday life.

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You can tell this was the first page of Meditations – later on Marcus used glitter pens and stickers.  The historians were so happy when the found the key to the little lock on the diary.

When I was younger, I thought that the solution to my problems existed outside of me.  I thought that if I could get more power, I could be happy.  If you think being more powerful will automatically ease all of your worries and concerns, Marcus Aurelius is proof that power won’t help you in that way.

Sure, Marcus didn’t have to worry about making a mortgage payment or about not getting a tasty chicken sandwich because he showed up at Chick-fil-a® and forgot they were closed on Sundays, but the passage above shows that the decisions of running an empire and planning military campaigns were still overwhelming and stressful.  While outwardly Marcus had to be stoic in the sense of a strong Roman emperor, in his book he could share the truth about his worries with himself.

Let’s look at another quote, this one by Navy SEAL Jocko Willink (LINK):

This is what I want you to be afraid of:  waking up in six days or six weeks or six years or sixty years and being no closer to your goal . . . .  GET UP.  AND.  GO.

At first glance, these two quotes might seem separated.  They certainly are separated in time and pace, not to mention power.  Marcus wrote about the present and living through the moment.  He spoke of action in the small moment of “now” to allow him to get back to being able to deal with the big picture.

Jocko writes about failing in that future to spur action in today’s small moment of “now.”

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Or maybe he identifies as a SEAL?

Two men, writing about the same thing centuries apart, come to the same conclusion through different methods on escaping the paralysis of fear in day-to-day life:  action is vital for you to be the best you.  You can’t dwell on what might happen if you make a bad decision – but you have to be afraid of the person you’ll be if you don’t take action, or, worse yet, don’t have a goal.

Why don’t we take action?  Probably the number one reason is our egos.  Egos are fragile things, and ego in many ways is our enemy.  Aurelius wrote about getting through the moment, not being crushed by the overwhelming vastness of life.  That’s his ego not wanting to be wrong.

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I thought we’d have more of moved off to Canada by now?

Willink writes about wasting that future life.  That’s his ego avoiding action today because it might fail.  Ego wants to, above all things, not fail.  Taking yourself into a future where you have failed by not trying is a sneaky way of using your ego to help you improve.  Taken to extreme, it’ll make you single-minded.  The biggest danger is that you achieve your goal and don’t have another one.

Don’t let your ego drive your life.  Most people really don’t care about you, and that’s a good thing.

  • They don’t remember that your pants split during that presentation in college and you weren’t wearing underwear. At least I hope they still don’t remember that.
  • They barely remember when you made a fool out of yourself that one time at the party by walking into that glass front door, making you look like a 200 pound sparrow who left a face imprint, complete with Hot Mustard Sauce® that you were dipping Chicken McNuggets© in.
  • No one remembers that you time travelled into the past and that your high-school age mom tried to put the moves on you after you hit Biff Tannen.

Those that do care about you . . . don’t care about those oddly specific things I listed above.  They care about you and want you to feel better.  After you do something embarrassing, an inner voice beats you up.  That’s your ego.  Your ego is insulting you so you don’t embarrass it again.   And, I assure you, if anyone said to you the things you tell yourself when you’re feeling guilty or embarrassed and looking in a mirror, you’d cut them out of your life in a minute.  Unfortunately, when I tried to cut my ego out, my family stopped me because the electric drill I used couldn’t find it.  The ego is kept behind the drywall of your closet, right?

I mean, that’s where the voices come from.

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And his shoes didn’t match his purse!

Ask yourself:  how does fear of embarrassment or fear of failure drive your behavior?  How many things have you avoided because of fear?  How many great things did you miss out on because you weren’t willing to take the risk?

Be the best you.  Start today.  And ignore or make your own use of that inner voice that your ego uses to punish you.

Bubbles, Interest Rates*, Housing Prices, and Bigfoot (*Now Available With Gratuitous Bikini Graph)

“Well, I don’t think it’s officially called bubble bath if the bubbles happen accidentally, but whatever, Shawn.” – Psych

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I’ve heard that bubbles can get bigger forever, and that fingers never happen.

This is the latest reader request post – I don’t think I have another one in the hopper – if I missed one or if you have a topic you’d like to see, please hit me up either in the comments or via email at movingnorth@gmail.com, but remember that the NSA® is like Santa – they know who has been naughty and who has been nice.  Unlike Santa, however, the NSA™ is real.  Not sure about whether or not they jiggle like a bowl of Jell-O® when they laugh.  Guess it depends on how good the Federal wellness program is?

Lathechuck posted in the comments of a recent post (Cognitive Dissonance, Normalcy Bias, and Survival, with Wonder Woman, Bigfoot, Johnny Carson, Stalin, and a Bond Girl.) following gem – “Favorite topic to see explained: how mortgage payments are independent of interest rates.”

Housing is an emotional issue for most people.  It’s the reason that realtors say “it’s not a house, it’s a home,” and advise people selling houses to bake cookies so that fresh-baked cookie smell permeates the house and also suggests that you remove the corpses from the fridge prior to a showing.  Very few people want to open a fridge in a house they’re thinking about buying and see even a single severed head staring back at them, let alone three!  I think it’s the “not blinking” that puts people off?

I guess that’s what I get for buying Marilyn Manson’s old house.

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Yeah, it’s odd when a picture of Marilyn Manson discussing Joe Biden touching him suddenly makes the post less creepy.

I’ve never seen people get more upset than being involved in a negotiation over the purchase of a house – it becomes personal, and ceases being a business transaction.  And when people take things personally, people get emotional.  When people get emotional, people get stupid.

“How could he say that about my home?”  Yeah, I know you raised your kids there/did the tile in the bathroom yourself/became a self-taught expert on shaving and tattooing baboon crotches.  Honestly, I don’t care as long as you take all the baboon hair with you.  The more I know about you, the less I like your house, because how will it ever become my house, especially if I’m still finding baboon hair in three years?

Our realtor advised us that, given that we have about several thousand pounds worth of books, our house would sell much better if we weren’t in it.  I would wager that we have the most comprehensive library in Upper Lower Midwestia on several topics (none of which involve tattooing baboons).  To be 100% honest – the Wilder family has never, not once, sold a house that we were living in.  We are far too odd, and the skeleton on the front porch seems to be a bit off-putting.  Real conversation we had once:

New neighbor, enthusiastically:  “Nice Halloween decorations!”

The Mrs.:  “Halloween?”

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The Mrs. took this picture one day while I was at work when we lived in Houston.  The statue got broken by a dog after we moved to Modern Mayberry.  Response?  We have a new statue, but we keep it inside.  Yes. I have a bigfoot statue in my living room.  Who would buy a house from a family that had a bigfoot statue in their living?  Nobody.  You just can’t forget crap like that.

Realtors try to actually increase your anxiety with sales patter.  One technique that salespeople used on me when I was young was to magnify the importance of the decision way out of proportion.  “This will be the most important financial decision that you’ll ever make . . .”

That’s a lie.  The most important financial decision you’ll ever make is your choice of spouse – and the next most important financial decision is your choice of career.  The third most important financial decision you’ll make?  Paper or plastic.

As I got older, I wondered about why a salesman would try to inject a scary thought like that in the middle of a negotiation.  Shouldn’t they be trying to make me calm and happy with the decision?

No.

The sales process is entirely about emotional manipulation.  Salespeople are actively trained in creating mind-games to sway your emotions.  It’s what they do.  There are entire manuals on the Internet devoted to the process of managing the way a buyer feels through every step of the car buying process.  And salesmen go through it dozens of times a week.  The average buyer goes through it a few times a decade.  Who do you think is better at it?

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I don’t know what the name of this emotion is, but I’ve felt it.  Also, this emotion goes well with a nice Chianti and some fava beans.  Plus?  I really enjoyed writing this caption.

Realtors do the same thing.  The incentive for the Realtor™ taking you from house to house while you tangle their seatbelts isn’t to put you into the best possible house for you at the best price.  Your Realtor© isn’t your friend, they’re a salesman.  Their incentive is to sell a house.

The incentive for the Realtor® listing a house for a client isn’t to get them the best possible price.  The incentive for the Realtor© to sell their house.  Quickly, if possible.

The buying realtor and selling realtor split a six percent commission.  So, if you have a house that you want to sell for $300,000 and the realtor can sell it more quickly for $250,000, they’ll try to get you to price it for $250,000.  Why?  A certain $7,500 now is preferable to maybe getting $9,000 later.  The extra $50,000 to them isn’t irrelevant, it’s an impediment to them getting a commission this month.

Other advice you’re given is that “interest rates are low, it’s the best time to buy.”  Based on history, interest rates today are very low – nearly a record low.  But how does that impact the price of a house?

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You can see how serious that interest rates are by the expression on Candy’s face.  You certainly don’t want to be caught underwater on an expensive house, or without $1 bills when she’s pole dancing a bit later on the main stage.

Now for boring math:  If you bought a house for $250,000 at 4%, your monthly payment would be $1,194 (before taxes and insurance).  I hear the entire state of California laughing at that sales price, since most of them had to give up all of their spare organs like kidneys, nostrils, or eyes just to qualify for a down payment.  Guess I won’t mention that in Modern Mayberry you can get a 4,000 square foot (16,000,000 square meter) riverfront house on 3 acres for that amount of cash.  I’m not kidding.  It’s a nice house, nicer than mine.

Okay, we all agree that $250,000 for 4,000 square foot house sounds like a great deal, but what would your house payment be at 8% interest?  $1834.  Ouch!  That’s an extra $640 per month!  Outrageous!  Will Bernie Sanders save us?

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See?  Communists can even make drinking suck.

No, because Bernie lives in fantasy land.  But for grins, let’s pretend that you bought that house at 4%.  Four years later, the interest rate pops back up to 8%.  Time to sell because your psycho soon-to-be ex-wife entered a less than honorable relationship with Johnny Depp.  Let’s assume that the average wage where your house is will support that $1,194 per month payment.  How much can you sell your house for at 8% to attract a buyer at that payment?

About $160,000.

That’s a net loss of $90,000.  If you absolutely had to sell the house, you’d be out that $90,000, and some people work a whole month and don’t make that much money!

Does the same principle apply when interest rates are going down?  Sure.  I had a house for sale when the interest rate dropped by 3% over a weekend.  Weird – I think the Federal Reserve ate a bunch of marijuana brownies and slept with the cast of Cats®.  I went from no lookers in a month to three full price offers in a single day, netting me a 50% profit on the house.  That might explain why the drop in interest rates from the late 1990’s (about 8%) to the 6%-ish number of the early 2000’s helped inflate the Housing Bubble that almost ate the economy.

If low interest rates raise home prices, high interest rates make house prices drop – it’s that simple.

But the story doesn’t end there.  Homeowners are generally voters, so lawmakers like to do things homeowners like.  Examples include:

  • Making homes harder to build by putting in silly restrictions. San Francisco is a prime example of this strategy, having regulations that strictly prevent higher density development.  Lower supply?  Higher cost.
  • Property tax caps. These insulate homeowners from market price increases at the expense of newer homeowners.
  • Giving homeowners a free massage near election time.

Legislators realize that people who don’t want homes might want them and might one day be voters, so they have (in the past) put in place laws that:

  • Prohibit lenders from not lending to people with bad credit. Certainly no consequences to that idea.
  • Provide loans that are easier to qualify for with sketchy qualifications (FHA). As a recipient of two FHA loans, I guess I’m okay with the government guaranteeing massive amounts of money to people just out of their teens, because young people make the very best  Go Sanders 2020!  Am I right, fellow young people?

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Listen to Mr. Pink when you have a decision to make – he’s such a young hep cat.  Tippecanoe and Tyler too!  Just noting, there aren’t many blogs making jokes about the election of 1840.  For that sort of cutting edge comedy, you’ve got to come here.

Politicians want housing prices to go only one way – up.  As prices go up, people who want to buy houses have a few choices:

  • Suck it up and pay the big bucks,
  • Commute from some distance just inside the orbit of Mars to get a lower price, which has the effect of raising prices in the new housing subdivision on Phobos,
  • Rent, or
  • Move to a city or state that doesn’t cost as much.

Believe it or not, there are places that don’t cost as much as California, with odd little names like “the People’s Republic of Washington” or “the Oregon Soviet People’s Collective” that you can move to.  Readers of this blog would be better advised to move to states that are not actively governed by Che Guevara’s Ouija® board.  Oddly, they are known as “red” states.

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Actual Che quote:  “If you tremble with indignation at every injustice, then you are a comrade of mine.”  Looks like he was triggered before triggered was a thing.  But he did it ironically.

In Modern Mayberry, I’m thinking that Chateau Wilder has probably decreased in value by 10% to 20% since we bought it.  Yikes!  But the decade I’ve lived here, the total I’ve paid in mortgage payments plus an assumed 20% depreciation is less than three years in a one bedroom apartment in San Francisco.  Oh, the torture, having to live on five acres with a lake for a decade rather than three years in a one bedroom.  I feel so deprived.

I bought a house, not an investment.  If you’re trying to invest, the best buy will be a neighborhood that’s going to be popular in the future in an area where wages are going up, so you need a crystal ball and there’s still risk involved – but it is a great way to get rich quick.  Buying in a recession is great, especially if you know the future.  Many a small fortune has been made in real estate, and some of these small fortunes were initially large ones.

Selling is easier:  sell into low interest rates in high demand, high wage areas.  Also?  Avoid Detroit.

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Yes, making fun of Detroit is like kicking a puppy.  In my defense it’s a really, really, ugly puppy.

Beware if you’re buying in a hot market at low interest rates and if you’re planning on selling quickly.  You just might get caught.  Not that we’ve seen that before.

Beer, Technology, Beer, Tide Pods, Beer, Civilizational Stability, and Beer

“We’ll soon stage an attack on technology worthy of being chronicled in an anthem by Rush!” – Futurama

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In honor of Göbekli Tepe, I decided to take a morning run, but autocorrect changed it to “morning rum,” so, change of plans, guys!

Göbekli Tepe is an archeological site that dates back almost to 10,000 B.C. (12,000 years ago in metric).  12,000 years is a long time, in fact it is older than both agriculture and cities, but younger than my mother-in-law.  But the other thing that it’s not older than . . . is beer.  At Göbekli Tepe they found brewing vessels.  And these weren’t small vessels, they were huge vats up to 160 liters in size, complete with chemical residue from brewing beer.  If they can find chemical evidence of beer 12,000 years later, there’s no wonder mom could smell it even after I’d chewed a pack of minty gum.

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This is how I like to imagine they figured out that beer was brewed at Göbekli Tepe.

Beer is older than farms.  Beer is older than agriculture.  The logical question is this:  did people start cities and agriculture . . . just so they had beer on a regular basis?  Is the reason that we have cities right now . . . the liquor store?

It looks like that’s the case.  Nomadic man might not have had Netflix® or Ruffles©, but those weren’t necessary.  Most studies show that when man was nomadic, the rates of leisure were higher than they are today.  The things they did for food (hunting, fishing, and gathering) are enough fun that we do those as hobbies today.  But what was missing?

Beer.  Without a steady stream of beer there wasn’t any way they could say, “Hold my beer and watch this.”  Why is this important?  It’s important because everyone knows that no really good story starts with the words, “So, I was having a salad . . .”

The technology of beer brewing changed mankind.  And I’ll assure you, living in the very first cities that we know of would be nothing like living in a city today – no Uber.  These first cities were founded around 7,500 B.C. in Mesopotamia, and had really cool names like Eridu, Uruk, and Ur that remind me of Swedish death metal band names.

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I think that someone triggered him by giving him a hug.

But the first residents of Ur weren’t like you or I.  Exactly how they were different is probably difficult to even guess, but we’ve had nearly 500 generations between them and today’s humans.  And that’s changed us significantly – back in the timeframe that Ur was being formed, most men didn’t reproduce, but most women did.  When civilization was getting started around 6,000 B.C., only one guy in 17 reproduced.  Yes.  The average baby-daddy in Uruk in 6,000 B.C. was impregnating 17 females.  So, your great-great-great-great-great-great-great-grandma was a tramp, all because people made cities to get beer.

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What is not shown very well is that the woman’s side scale was nearly three times the scale on the men’s side.  This is graphical evidence that your great-great-great-great-great-great-great-grandma was a tramp.  Oops.  Mine, too.  Grandma, how could you?

In the United States today, about 3/4 of men father children while 85% of women reproduce.  This is significantly better than the average I’ve seen that shows throughout history 80% of women had children while only 40% of men fathered children.  Technology, in this case agriculture and beer, has changed humanity.  Beer goggles appear to work both ways in the modern United States.

Regardless, change from nomadic human to agricultural/urban human has taken us thousands of years to adapt to, and, honestly, I’m still not sold on the cities.  But I’ll keep the beer, thank you.

Other changes that were made possible by the move from nomadic human to urban human include the first:

  • Requirement for Money,
  • Economic Viability of Slavery,
  • Permanent Government,
  • Debt,
  • Taxes, and
  • Bar Tabs.

We don’t remember the things that were problems before agriculture, probably because we were having such a good time not living in cities that we didn’t bother to develop a written language to gripe about our problems.  What’s to gripe about?  I have to go hunting again?  I don’t have a job because there aren’t any jobs so I get to go fishing?  Bummer.

Over time, in the thousands of years since the development of agriculture, coping mechanisms evolved that created stability in the “new” urban-agricultural society.  Pretty significant adaptations included:

  • Organized Religion,
  • Creation of Classes,
  • Division of Labor,
  • Eating Tide© Pods, and
  • Laws.

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Shhh.  Don’t warn the kids.  Let evolution run its course. 

These adaptations allowed post-agricultural civilization to become stable, or at least stable enough so that empires could form.  But as people changed their environment, their environment changed them.  It takes seven generations (at minimum) to create a new dog breed.

How long until a new type of human is bred by the new conditions in the city?  If I were to guess, given that humans are much more complicated that it would take 20 or more generations.  Rather than going off to hunt they’d have to do the same job, day after day, for years at a time.  Rather than start a fight with a machete because they were mad about friends who put mayonnaise and strawberry jelly in their hard hat, they’d laugh.  That alone probably took about five hundred years.

Some people didn’t make the transition.  The result, if you’re a guy?  You don’t breed.

Monogamy became more firmly embedded in society only in the West, and was primarily spread by Western society, being a recent (within the last 200 years) in most places that aren’t Western.  This had an amazingly stabilizing effect on society as a whole – fathers have more of a stake in the future of society.  Sure, kings and powerful guys had mistresses, but for the most part more men (on a percentage basis) got to have children than ever in history.

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DEFCON 1:  This would be The Mrs.’ reaction to me having a mistress.

Thousands of years of evolution of both society and of the humans that make up society led us to a fairly stable way of doing things.  Monogamy, sex roles, class, and hierarchy allowed life to proceed smoothly, and wealth to be created in society.  I’m not saying that it was better than hunting and fishing all day, but there was certainly more beer.  And after electricity, cold beer.  The 1950’s was probably the height (in the United States) of this society in many respects.

  • Women didn’t work as much – they didn’t have to.
  • Divorce rates were low – mom and dad stayed together.
  • Illegal drug use was low – yes, people drank. That was the point of society, right?
  • Church attendance was high.
  • Biggest problem of 1950’s schools? Gum chewing.

The last sixty years, however, has led to the greatest amount of technological and social change in any sixty years in the history of humanity.  What changes?

  • Birth Control – The Pill was introduced in 1960 – graph below. You’d have thought this would have led to lower births out of wedlock, but, not really.  I don’t really understand this, since very few babies are married when born, outside of Pakistan.

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I was born out of wedlock.  Not married at all.  Oh, and neither was my mom.  Sometimes the trend is your friend.

  • Significant Immigration from Non-Western Cultures – massive influxes of people in societies happens in history, but every time that it happens, it later gets called “an invasion.”

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I’m still looking for examples of successful multi-cultural civilizations.  I even went onto a communist website to search for them.  Still came up empty, though I do realize now that real communism has not been tried yet.  Whew!  I was worried that the unending stream of failures meant that it would fail here, too.

  • Massive Welfare – In 1965 President Johnson proclaimed the Great Society – we’d make everyone rich. Despite hundreds of billions in welfare spending, the only thing the Great Society created was roughly the same amount of poor people, but poor people who now depend on the government.  Might be correlated with illegitimate births?

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Thankfully, we’ve seen no more need of welfare after spending this much and poverty and people protesting for more money has disappeared.  Yay!  I love winning!

  • Fragmentation of Communication – in 1983, the highest-rated television program in history (non-sports) in the United States happened. It will never happen again.  Television has fragmented into hundreds of channels, plus dozens of online services, giving millions of options.  But the common culture from communication is gone.
  • Decline in Religion – Religious observance has dropped in America, despite religious belief being vitally important during Colonial times, when it is estimated that up to 80% of colonists were regular church goers, compared with 37% today. You may not be a religious, but it’s yet another commonality that we’ve lost.
  • The Internet – prior to the Internet, most person to person communication was local. Now?  Left-handed dentists with impaired vision can form their own FaceBorg® group.  The Internet brings us together.  The Internet also allows us to fragment.

The Internet might be the most significant technological change of recent memory.  There was a time when we actually argued about facts rather than hitting Google® to solve an argument.  Now?  Nope.  But the Internet isn’t a tool for unity, it’s a tool for fragmentation.

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Start with Futurama™, end with The Simpsons©.  Is there anything beer can’t do?

We’ve been living with technological change for thousands of years and trying to cope with it since we started the first cities.  Who knows where this will all end up?  And to think, it all started with some guy founding the first city 10,000 years ago saying, “Hold my beer, watch this . . . .”

Wedlock, Divorce Graphs, H/T Secular Patriarchy (LINK).

Göbekli Tepe picture via Teomancimit [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]

This post was spawned by some comments with James over at Bison Prepper (LINK), but no bison were harmed during the production of this post.

Currency Collapse Explained Using Sexy Bikini Girl Graphs, Part II

“You’re the one that’s collapsing.  Been sitting at that contraption for twenty-two years.  It’s time you tried a girl.” – The Addams Family

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It is related to the post.  I promise.  That makes it literature, so you have to like it.  It’s sophisticated and swanky.

This series of posts was inspired by a great e-mail from Ricky.  This is Part Two.  Part One can be found here (Big Swedish Coins, Italian Women Pole Vaulters, and the Future of Money, Part I).

Let’s – again – state the basic thesis in Ricky’s words:

“I’m right there with you that collapse is coming to our house of cards because of the way they were dealt.  But after all of the individual survival dramas play out, survival ultimately depends on a community rising from the ashes.  And the glue of a community is ultimately the deals made between its individuals.  And money is the encapsulation of those deals.

“So when the dust settles and the smoke clears and the phoenix rises from the ashes of the eagle’s nest, there’s gonna need to be a reset on money.  On what it is, and how it works.”

Last time we looked at the financial history of the United States up until the Civil War.  The first Civil War, not the next one (Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming), I mean.

Just a few generations after the Revolutionary War, in the 1860’s, both halves of the United States defaulted on currency during the Civil War.  The North defaulted on gold redemption in 1863, and the South printed Confederate currency like they were trying to make the Founding Fathers look like that one sailor that stayed in his bunk reading the Bible when the Seventh Fleet hit Sydney.  My father-in-law swears that’s what he did, and no one with an Australian accent has shown up claiming to be The Mrs.’ long-lost sister.

Okay, after the Civil War, the United States is at least done with defaulting, right?  I mean, we started up the Federal Reserve Bank™ in 1913 to stop these sorts of shenanigans, so that must have worked?

No.  If the Federal Reserve ever pretended to have the mission of maintaining the stability of the dollar, it failed like one of Oprah’s diets.

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Ricky sent this one.  It’s perfect, with the exception that it doesn’t contain girls wearing bikinis.  I think . . . we can do better.  I think . . . we can Make Economics Sexy Again!

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See, fixed that for you, Ricky.  Graph is now 1000% better, unlike our currency.  You can see her toes are pointed down into the sand, which shows that the value of the dollar is lower.  Also, if I can point your attention to the years between 1950 and 1965 you can see what an amazing, um, time span that was.

In 1933, the United States had $4 billion in gold.  Sadly, it owed $22 billion in gold that it would have to pay off in just a four years.

Solution?

Make owning gold by your own citizens illegal, and make them hand it in on penalty of going to jail if they don’t.  After you’ve got those dollars, redefine the dollar so that it’s worth a lot less.  Presto!  You’ve stolen all the gold and then made the resulting “dollars” that your citizens have worth a lot less.  Then you can give your cheaper dollars to other governments in payment.  It’s like being Enron®, but with 100% less jail time, so it’s exactly like being a Kennedy.

So, yeah, I’d call that a default, too.

Finally in the 1970’s, the French decided that they could wake up from their wine and cigarette haze long enough to see that the United States was way short on the amount of gold necessary to pay all the debts that Johnson and Nixon created to get elected.

Defaulting on your currency is like a divorce:  once is a mistake, twice is a trend, and by the third time….maybe, just maybe, it’s you.  The French decided to be sneaky, and took all of their dollars, showed up at the bank, probably with a baguette under each arm, and requested gold.  The United States essentially said, “Umm, we didn’t think that you thought we were serious about that.  OMG, LOL!” and stopped giving anyone gold in exchange for their dollar.   My scoring:  yet another default.

Since August 15, 1971, the United States dollar is backed by our sterling record of fiscal responsibility, along with thousands of nuclear warheads.  As Pop Wilder always used to say, “You get farther with a kind word and a sophisticated professional military and thousands of nuclear warheads than you do with just a kind word.”

I would my own discovery, the John Wilder Rule of Sexy Economics™: “You get more attention with bikini girl economics graphs than with just economics graphs.”

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As careful study of this graph will show, the glorious years of 1970 led to the bare times to follow and a sensitive employment time in the early 1980’s.  Unemployment never looked so good.

So, that’s a little bit about money along with some recent history.  Looking at all of history, though, I’d say what happens with money depends upon the kind of collapse we expect to see.  For the sake of simplicity, I’ll break collapses into three sizes.  Why these three sizes?  As of the time of writing I’m a bit thirsty, and the local convenience store only has three drink sizes.  Here they are:

  • Medium: The definition of a Medium failure includes monetary easing.  It could also include a default that may cause economic hardship, but doesn’t impact the government of the country or the ability of a country to issue its own currency.  This describes all of the defaults of the United States.
  • Large: This involves the complete destruction of a currency.  Common examples are Weimar Germany or modern-day Wakanda©  In both cases, the currency imploded as the major engineering problem of the day was how to print more money, faster (hint:  the Germans only printed on one side to double press production).  In Germany, the change led complete dissolution of society and a rebuilding under . . . well, Literally That One Guy Nobody Can Mention.  In Zimbabwe, it led to complete destruction of the currency and eventual loss of power for the guy who had been President for as long as Zimbabwe had been Zimbabwe.
  • Big Gulp®: This is the complete destruction of the economic as well as political system.  Rome, long laboring under a fiat currency, finally imploded and left behind a smoking crater that took hundreds of years to fill.  Thankfully, refills are only $0.29 with purchase of the official mug!

So what happens to an individual in one of these failures?

In a Medium Failure, you can keep your currency, if you like it, but what cost $100 a few years ago probably costs $1000 now.  Everybody adapts and you can generally go about your business, but you’re poorer and not at all happy, and it looks a lot like the Housing Bubble of the 2000’s.  Another analogy: it’s like you were forced to spend way too much time with my ex-wife.

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The Housing Bubble can be seen pretty clearly here.  Somewhere.  Keep looking.  You have my permission.

In a Large Failure, ultimately the currency is toast.  Your money is gone.  But the country will restart the economy using either a new currency, or just by adopting an outside currency that’s moderated by someone marginally more adult than you.  Zimbabwe’s unofficial currency is the United States dollar, but there aren’t enough of them to go around, so many people use mobile currency that’s (more or less) run by cell phone companies.  When your cell phone company has a much better record of fiscal restraint than your government?  Yikes.

A Big Gulp© Failure is social collapse.  The biggest one in recent Western history is Rome.  The Roman Big Gulp® was so big that it spawned collapse after collapse in nation after nation as Rome shrank away from areas it could no longer afford to protect or govern. Great Britain is an example of the collapse.  After the last Roman Legion left people buried their money . . . and never dug it up.  Why?

The silver content of Roman coins in the late Empire consisted of waving a bit of silver over the top of the molten metal before a coin was made.  Rome had gone full fiat.  Roman coins, in the absence of Roman troops, were worthless.  Money itself was abandoned, and barter was the key, when local bandits and warlords didn’t just take what they wanted.

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You want a worthless currency?  This is how you get a worthless currency..

How do we get to these collapses, and how likely are they?

Medium Failure:  I think that there may be as high as a 70%-90% chance of a Medium Failure hitting the United States in the lifetime of the average reader.  The challenges we will face with medical care (More Budget Doom, The Rolling Stones, an End Date, and an Unlikely Version of Thunderstruck) and the possibility that the politicians won’t resist the lure of free money promised by Modern Monetary Theory (The Worst Economic Idea Since Socialism, Explained Using Bikini Girl Graphs).  Read the articles at the link.  They were written by a cool guy I know, but before he really focused on getting better.

As a reminder of how close this might be to happening, a penny costs about $0.02 to make, so to get your two cents worth only costs a penny now, and that’s after they took out all the copper.  The copper alone in an old (pre-1979) penny is nearly $0.02.  It would cost about $0.04 to make a copper penny today.  A nickel costs $0.06 to $0.08 to make.  A dollar in pre-1964 silver coins is worth $10.60 at the time of this writing, which tells you that we’ve really already failed at keeping the value of our money up.

Ricky points out some interesting alternatives to currency in some of the supporting links he sent.  Just like Zimbabwe leaned on cell phone providers to be less insane and more trustworthy than the government, Facebook® is betting that its new currency, named the libra (LINK) will be less insane than the dollar, and has the added bonus of having the word “bra” as part of its name.  Honestly, I would have thought that Facebook™ would have denominated its currency in selfies and named it the lookatme.

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Student loan debt makes you feel like you can’t afford much clothing, and you’re between a rock and a hard place.  And very fit and tan and covered with oil.

Large Failure:  Large failures are big.  I mean, it’s in the name “Large.”  It generally comes after really horrible financial malfeasance for years.  Our current medical payment system (which is really bad) will, if not fixed, lead to a large failure.  Other notable large failures?  The start and end of the Soviet Union.  North Korea.  Nationalist China.  The country is still a country, and, with outside help and a new government, can, after a generation emerge from chaos.

I think there’s as high as a 40-50% chance this will happen within the lives of the average reader.

Big Gulp© Failure:  What would lead to a modern Big Gulp™-Level, end of Rome type event?  Nuclear war.  Running out of hydrocarbons.  Meteor impact on George Clooney’s ego.  Catastrophic disease.  Reuniting the Spice Girls®.  Regardless of the cause, I could easily see a failure of this magnitude ending 90% of the human lives on the planet.

Big Gulp® failures might last 1,000 years, since the last one lasted 500 years.  That means, since the time of Christ, Western Civilization was in a Big Gulp™ failure for 25% of the time.  Still – it only happened once.  I’d give a likelihood of 5-10% of this occurring within the lifespan of the average reader.  Pray some of the Spice Girls© have bad tickers.

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Okay, these aren’t the Spice Girls™, but their ascending height from left to right is the perfect way to show that whatever lines are on this graph are going up from left to right.  I assume the thing going up is bad.

Checklist – Signs of a Currency Collapse:

  1. Gasoline is priced in goats.
  2. Bankers take cold pizza as mortgage payments.
  3. You can pay off your medical school student loans with the change from buying a candy bar.
  4. Bill Gates is bumming cash by cleaning windows of passing cars.
  5. $100 bills are too cheap to use as notepaper.
  6. Americans are caught sneaking into Honduras.
  7. George Soros begins laying off politicians and selling some on E-Bay®.
  8. The IRS starts giving a 25% discount for cash.
  9. Your financial adviser will have helped you get to a small fortune, but only if you started with a large fortune.
  10. You try to make a withdrawal at the bank and they tell you they have insufficient funds.

So, Ricky, there it is, Part I and Part II.  See you in Stockholm to pick up our Nobel Prize™!

Don’t forget to bikini wax.