Seneca, The Thing, Changing Careers, and Little Ben Shapiro

“It could have imitated a million life-forms on a million planets. It could change into any one of them at any time. Now, it wants life-forms on Earth.” – The Thing

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This bust is Seneca on one side, and on the other Socrates, all at a museum in Berlin.  Both guys are carved out of the same block of marble, which is kind of creepy and reminds me of The Thing.

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Okay, it’s not creepy – it’s not like Joe Biden was involved.

“Think of those who not by fault of inconsistency but by lack of effort are too unstable to live as they wish, but only to live as they have begun.” – Seneca

What Seneca was saying was that you should strive, and you should persevere . . . but only up to a point.  Whereas you can start your career as a snake milker, there is no law that says you can’t finish your career as a Senior Kindle™ Evangelist.  It’s even easier to make that transition if you’re Jeff Bezos’ ex-brother in law.  It’s even easier than that if you have . . . special pictures of Jeff Bezos.

In the words of Winston Churchill, “Never give in, never, never, never, never, in nothing, great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense.”  Even Churchill notes that at some point your life ceases being an inspiration for people to aspire to, and becomes a case study and example of ludicrous obsession.  Does that remind you *cough* of anyone *cough* Hillary *cough*?

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I don’t know, maybe she lost because of an image thing?  Or was it because she was The Thing?

In your life, based on circumstance, you will find that a certain amount of flexibility is required.  Not necessarily “Soviet-bloc gymnast” level flexibility, but at the minimum “middle-aged, middle-school art teacher” flexibility.  The economy will change.  Jobs will change.  And as you age, your abilities will change.  This will make a career change not only likely, but inevitable for most people during their lives.

I’d prepared a bunch of my notes before I read the recent story in The Atlantic titled, “Your Professional Decline is Coming (Much) Sooner Than You Think.”  It’s worth a read, since it appears it was written by their one non-communist writer.  One great quote from the article is from Alex Dias Ribeiro, who is a retired Formula 1 race car driver:

“Unhappy is he who depends upon success to be happy.”

Alex retired from driving in 1979 at the age of 31, never having finished higher than second place in a major race.  I’d make fun of Alex, but he’s certainly done better than I have in Formula 1 racing, where I’m not really sure my butt would even fit into a Formula 1 race car.  But I totally am a better blogger.  What, he has 38,000 Facebook® followers and has devoted his life to being a humble Christian pastor?  Does he floss as often as I do?

He does?  Dangit.  He has perfect teeth.  At 70.  Crap.

Alex’s commentary and early retirement age are the point of the article:  some abilities decline with age.  As much as a forty-year-old man might identify as a twenty-year-old, he isn’t.  Alex understood that at 31 he was past his peak as a driver and has dealt with it with far greater humility and grace than, well, me.

What do you mean that bragging about your achievements when you were in high school is  after, well, 22?

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I’m sure they’re all totally impressed that I knew all the lyrics to that brand-new Bon Jovi album, Slippery When Wet.

As anyone who is older than 25 knows, physical ability goes down with age.  This decline is not linear.  Think of physical ability as your hairline.  Ever see a seventy year old with a thicker head of hair than when they were forty?  I mean, unless it’s Joe Biden?  Nope.

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He says that being around young people keeps him young.  I think he means young doctors?

My physical ability declines with age.  Shower drain clogs caused by my hair decline with age.  Does that mean everything is diminished as I age?  Nope.  I have a luxurious, flowing mane of ear and back hair.  Sadly, I can feel the wind blowing through my back hairs, and all it takes for me to feel that air flow is the breeze from a bathroom fan.  The good news is that I can now knit myself a sweater entirely made of myself.  Well, I could if I could knit.  And if I lived in California.  I think that they’d make me move out of the county if I did that kind of creepy “back hair sweater knitting” in Modern Mayberry.

The good news is one other thing happens as you age – mental abilities change.

When you’re young, you have a greater amount of “fluid intelligence.”  Fluid intelligence is the fuel for innovation.  It’s what makes a five year old with a screwdriver take apart a $300 digital camera (yes, that really happened, and I let him live).  Fluid intelligence is the cause of new theories, the skill to solve novel problems, the ability to unhook a bra with only one hand.  Fluid intelligence seems to peak at or just before the age of 30.

The article further references a couple of examples that illustrate the problem of declining fluid intelligence:  Back before computers and high-speed imaging, an umpire was an umpire and the only difference between one umpire and another umpire was how fat they were.  Now, Major League© umpires can be objectively and scientifically graded.  Did that fast ball catch the corner of the strike zone?  Was that curveball really just outside?  Unlike in 1950, this can be checked in 2019.

Statistics show the best home plate umpires are, on average, about 33 years old.  The worst home plate umpires average about 56 years old.  It may not be a coincidence that the mandatory retirement age for air traffic controllers is 56, which is an oddly specific number.  I guess fastballs over the plate at Yankee® Stadium are just another bit of air traffic.

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You can trust them!  Communism will surely work this time!

Hang on, old people – don’t pack your bags and get ready to board the trains for the new “Sanders-Cortez Leisure Camps” just yet.  There’s another type of intelligence – crystallized intelligence.  This intelligence is based around taking the information that you know and combining it (plus new facts) to form a synthesized view of the world.  That’s a whole lot of syllables that just mean one simple old word:  wisdom.  The best news is that crystallized intelligence doesn’t decline until senility hits.  Wisdom is accessible until you’re drooling.

This explains why rockstars in their seventies play music they wrote when they were twenty or thirty.  Writing music requires fluid intelligence.  For example:  Aerosmith hasn’t written a new song since well before Steven Tyler started looking like your poorly aging lesbian aunt.

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(S)he was lead-off hitter in the softball league that consisted entirely of stray cats that (s)he kept in the garage.  They did win the championship, which was a bouquet of catnip and chardonnay.

Signs of decreasing fluid intelligence:

  • Your VCR clock is constantly blinking 12:00.
  • Interruptions tend to make your mind wander . . . oh, look, a baby wolf.
  • You still have a VCR.
  • You have no idea why you came into the kitchen.
  • You don’t really care that the VCR is constantly blinking 12:00 because the last time you tried to fix it you changed all the menus to Mandarin and had to wait for a 10 year-old to fix it.
  • Why am I in the kitchen again? I swear, I had it figured out last time.
  • You leave stickers on your laptop, because you’ll be getting a new one in the next eight years, so why bother?
  • Was it ice? A beer?  Eggs?  No, I’d have to cook eggs.  Oh, that’s it!  I left ramen® in the microwave!

If your dream is to be a groundbreaking theoretical physicist in your sixties?  I’m sorry, it’s not going to happen.  But teachers, historians, and bloggers all rely on crystallized intelligence.  Innovation is not going to happen, but thinking deeply and combining new and old facts and ideas will happen.  It’s recognizing that you’ve seen the patterns in society before.  It is wisdom, which consists of rubbing your chin and saying . . . “What were you thinking when you decided to try create a musical comedy about the Ferguson riots?”

Wisdom is asking that one additional question before you bomb Iran.  It’s why the framers of the Constitution put a minimum age on being President – you have to have wisdom to do the job.  Honestly, at my current age I think the Constitutional minimum is too low.  Thirty five?  No.  I’d put the minimum at forty five, unless they had no idea who a Kardashian was.

My brother and I were talking about on the phone about a decade ago.  The organization he was working at had just hired a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO) for their billion-dollar organization.  The new CFO was 30.  My comment to my brother was, “Thirty?  Are they nuts?  He’s not ready.  He has the wisdom of a houseplant.  He has the insight of an ice cube.”

My brother’s comment:  “But John, he’s really smart.”

A year later that CFO had flamed out and had gone, umm, more than a little nuts and they had to fire him.  My brother related several friendly conversations he had with the CFO where the CFO sounded borderline paranoid-schizophrenic.  The CFO wasn’t really crazy, though.  The position had just been too much for him to handle mentally.  It had been unfair to put him in a position where he had such responsibility so young, with so little wisdom.

The focus of life is different after fluid intelligence drops – it has to be.  You won’t have a sixty year old winning many high school track meets, but you won’t have any decent life advice coming from little Benny Shapiro, either.

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Something tells me Shapiro . . . is no Seneca.  Unless he grows an extra head.

Seneca bust photo:  Marcus Cyron [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)]

The Left, Doublethink, and Individual Thought

“That’s an interesting point.  Come on, let’s get into character.” – Pulp Fiction

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Such stunning bravery and individualism!

Not quite a year ago a meme broke out into the wild – the Non-Player-Character (NPC) meme.  The meme originated with video games.  In video games that follow a storyline, there are various characters that exist only to move the story forward.  While you can play a video game character that’s a 4’2” Asian female bodybuilder with tattoos and bright red hair, you can’t play as an NPC.

NPCs can create unplanned humor because they are programmed and react in only very predictable ways.  Slug one, and they don’t care.  Meet up with the same NPC for the tenth time?  It’s like you never met before.  They have no original ideas.  They exist only to fulfill their programmed destiny.

The connection made, probably at 4Chan back in September of last year is that an NPC is really a great analogy for a Leftist that has given up completely on the idea of independent, individual thought.  The contradictions that are contained within liberalism abound, but even more striking is the degree of programming present.  An example:

Stephen Colbert is a late night talk show host who is famous for hating President Trump.  In the show after former FBI® Director James Comey was fired, Colbert mentioned Comey was fired.  The crowd was used to Comey being a villain.  Why was Comey a villain?  On the eve of the election of 2016, Comey announced a new investigation of the “newly-found e-mails” off of convicted creep Anthony Weiner that cost Hillary the election.

The crowd cheered because Comey got fired.  Until Colbert reprogrammed them that, instead of being a bad guy, Comey was now a good guy.  See for yourself:

Today, obviously, Comey is a hero of the Left.  I would imagine that, if you asked a Leftist, you’d find that Comey was always a hero and they didn’t recall at all that they ever thought he was an evil Trump supporter.  It’s like a quote from Orwell’s 1984:

And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed – if all records told the same tale — then the lie passed into history and became truth.  “Who controls the past,” ran the Party slogan, “controls the future:  who controls the present controls the past.”  And yet the past, though of its nature alterable, never had been altered.  Whatever was true now was true from everlasting to everlasting.  It was quite simple.  All that was needed was an unending series of victories over your own memory.  “Reality control” they called it:  in Newspeak, “doublethink.”

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And the worst thing is when the update is downloading that the NPCs can’t do anything else until they reboot.

When you view it from outside, it’s easily seen.  But from the inside, it’s not.  The basic contradictions are astonishing in their scope and presentation of Doublethink:

  • Pregnant men. Perfectly normal.
  • Islamic feminism. No philosophical inconsistencies here!
  • Roe versus Wade is written in stone, but the Constitution is a “living, changeable” document.
  • Transitioning a nine-year-old to a new sex is normal and healthy. Has been going on for thousands of years.
  • Speech you don’t agree with is violence. I’m triggered!
  • Violence you agree with is free speech. Punch a fascist!

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No, surely it’s not that.

I could go on in naming examples, and likely so could you.  Are there contradictory views on the Right?  Certainly, but they’re mostly not at core of the philosophy on the Right as they are the very core of the philosophy of the Left.  And, unlike the Left, the Right typically doesn’t end it all in a Purity Spiral (Robespierre, Stalin, Mao, Mangos and A Future That Must Not Be).

I’ll even admit that one time, I was an NPC on the Right.  There was a point (long ago, college time) when a Democratic congresscritter proposed a national tax cut.  President George H.W. Bush opposed it.  So I opposed it.

Huh?

I had always been for tax cuts as a general rule.  I stopped and thought . . . Why would I support not cutting taxes that the Democrats want to cut?  Just because they’re Democrats?

I decided that the Democrat congresscritter was right.  Cut the taxes.  Obviously, that solved all the problems that our nation has.  Oops.

The cure for being an NPC is thought.  Since that time, I regularly examine what I think – this blog is a part of that process.  I also examine why I think it.  If the reason that I believe something is because other people believe it, is that a good reason?

No, it’s not really a good reason.  Unless you’re a Leftist.

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I think the reason Leftists are more susceptible to the Doublethink that drives them into the NPC cult is that they’re more r-selected – they come from an environment that values conformity and group inclusion.  I write about r-selection versus K-selection here (r/K Selection Theory, or Why Thanksgiving is Tense* (for some people)).  r-selected animals, like rabbits, move in groups.  They’re prey animals, and know that the only safety that they have is in numbers.  Doing something that’s different than the herd singles you out.  It gets you killed.  Rightists are K-selected – they’re predators.  Individual behavior is not only tolerated, it’s the only way to get your genes propagated.

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Okay this wasn’t an original, but was too good to pass up.  I think it came from 4chan.

This explains several things about the Left.  They reacted so quickly to the NPC meme that they had NPC-themed Twitter® accounts banned within a month of the meme making widespread appearance.  How do you know something bothers someone?  When it creates such a strong reaction.

Are all Leftists NPCs?  Nope.  I know a few I can discuss politics with and we can still be friends.  They admit when I have a point.  I admit when they have a point – a few very popular posts have had their genesis with conversations I was having with Left-leaning friends.  But discussing politics with the typical NPC should be avoided.  There is nothing more personal to them than the ideas that they have that don’t impact them at all.  Really.  Why would a fifty-year-old cat lady be more passionate about illegal aliens than anything else in her life?

By definition, a religion punishes heresy and blasphemy above all else.  To call NPCs cult members might sound strong, but the reality is that they probably are.  Notice the reaction when a newly-revealed religious revelation presents itself:  “DACA”, “living wage”, “Maxine Waters is not the reincarnation of James Brown’s hair”, “religion of peace”, “bake my cake”, or “white privilege” begins.

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I’d call it a tie.  But unlike Maxine, James liked “Living in America.”

To be against any of these is to be filled with hate.  Being left alone is not an option.  Having no opinion is not an option.  From their perspective, the only opinion you can have is the correct opinion – their opinion.

Me, I think I’ll keep thinking for myself.  But remember, that’s dangerous.

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The Roman Emperor, The Navy SEAL, Elizabeth Warren, and Your Future

“You were last seen hiking up Mount Ego.” – Frasier

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Jimmy Page could NOT believe it when he found out that Marcus Aurelius would be available as a lead singer.

I know what you’re saying, “John Wilder, how can you be so freakin’ funny three times a week every Monday, Wednesday and Friday?”  The answer is simple – my goal to be the funniest person on the Internet, with the exception of those anchors on CNN®.  I mean, how do they keep a straight face?

That goal requires work.  Really.  Oh, sure, “work” includes researching things I’m interested in anyway and (sometimes) drinking a glass of wine or two while I work on punchlines.  But I won’t hit publish or stop writing until it’s done.  And done means I’m happy as a twit in a toga with a toupee.  Speaking of  noble noggins in nighties, Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius (notice that smooth transition?) said:

Don’t let your reflection on the whole sweep of life crush you.  Don’t fill your mind with all the bad things that still might happen.  Stay focused on the present situation and ask yourself whey it’s so unbearable and can’t be survived.

Whenever I quote him, I remind everyone that Marcus Aurelius was the Emperor of Rome while it was still at the height of its power.  This man had the freedom to make decisions on the literal life and death of citizens and non-citizens alike.  He was, no joking, the most powerful man in the world.

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What’s the fun of telling the Stormtroopers© that “These aren’t the droids® you’re looking for,” when the Stormtroopers™ work for you?  It’s like they were thinking, “Okay, play along, the Emperor is doing cosplay again.”

But despite this worldly power, Marcus took the time to write down his personal philosophy.  It wasn’t to pass down to posterity, it was for him.  His book is called Meditations because these were the things he meditated about on a daily basis.  These were the problems and doubts and issues he dealt with in his everyday life.

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You can tell this was the first page of Meditations – later on Marcus used glitter pens and stickers.  The historians were so happy when the found the key to the little lock on the diary.

When I was younger, I thought that the solution to my problems existed outside of me.  I thought that if I could get more power, I could be happy.  If you think being more powerful will automatically ease all of your worries and concerns, Marcus Aurelius is proof that power won’t help you in that way.

Sure, Marcus didn’t have to worry about making a mortgage payment or about not getting a tasty chicken sandwich because he showed up at Chick-fil-a® and forgot they were closed on Sundays, but the passage above shows that the decisions of running an empire and planning military campaigns were still overwhelming and stressful.  While outwardly Marcus had to be stoic in the sense of a strong Roman emperor, in his book he could share the truth about his worries with himself.

Let’s look at another quote, this one by Navy SEAL Jocko Willink (LINK):

This is what I want you to be afraid of:  waking up in six days or six weeks or six years or sixty years and being no closer to your goal . . . .  GET UP.  AND.  GO.

At first glance, these two quotes might seem separated.  They certainly are separated in time and pace, not to mention power.  Marcus wrote about the present and living through the moment.  He spoke of action in the small moment of “now” to allow him to get back to being able to deal with the big picture.

Jocko writes about failing in that future to spur action in today’s small moment of “now.”

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Or maybe he identifies as a SEAL?

Two men, writing about the same thing centuries apart, come to the same conclusion through different methods on escaping the paralysis of fear in day-to-day life:  action is vital for you to be the best you.  You can’t dwell on what might happen if you make a bad decision – but you have to be afraid of the person you’ll be if you don’t take action, or, worse yet, don’t have a goal.

Why don’t we take action?  Probably the number one reason is our egos.  Egos are fragile things, and ego in many ways is our enemy.  Aurelius wrote about getting through the moment, not being crushed by the overwhelming vastness of life.  That’s his ego not wanting to be wrong.

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I thought we’d have more of moved off to Canada by now?

Willink writes about wasting that future life.  That’s his ego avoiding action today because it might fail.  Ego wants to, above all things, not fail.  Taking yourself into a future where you have failed by not trying is a sneaky way of using your ego to help you improve.  Taken to extreme, it’ll make you single-minded.  The biggest danger is that you achieve your goal and don’t have another one.

Don’t let your ego drive your life.  Most people really don’t care about you, and that’s a good thing.

  • They don’t remember that your pants split during that presentation in college and you weren’t wearing underwear. At least I hope they still don’t remember that.
  • They barely remember when you made a fool out of yourself that one time at the party by walking into that glass front door, making you look like a 200 pound sparrow who left a face imprint, complete with Hot Mustard Sauce® that you were dipping Chicken McNuggets© in.
  • No one remembers that you time travelled into the past and that your high-school age mom tried to put the moves on you after you hit Biff Tannen.

Those that do care about you . . . don’t care about those oddly specific things I listed above.  They care about you and want you to feel better.  After you do something embarrassing, an inner voice beats you up.  That’s your ego.  Your ego is insulting you so you don’t embarrass it again.   And, I assure you, if anyone said to you the things you tell yourself when you’re feeling guilty or embarrassed and looking in a mirror, you’d cut them out of your life in a minute.  Unfortunately, when I tried to cut my ego out, my family stopped me because the electric drill I used couldn’t find it.  The ego is kept behind the drywall of your closet, right?

I mean, that’s where the voices come from.

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And his shoes didn’t match his purse!

Ask yourself:  how does fear of embarrassment or fear of failure drive your behavior?  How many things have you avoided because of fear?  How many great things did you miss out on because you weren’t willing to take the risk?

Be the best you.  Start today.  And ignore or make your own use of that inner voice that your ego uses to punish you.

Bubbles, Interest Rates*, Housing Prices, and Bigfoot (*Now Available With Gratuitous Bikini Graph)

“Well, I don’t think it’s officially called bubble bath if the bubbles happen accidentally, but whatever, Shawn.” – Psych

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I’ve heard that bubbles can get bigger forever, and that fingers never happen.

This is the latest reader request post – I don’t think I have another one in the hopper – if I missed one or if you have a topic you’d like to see, please hit me up either in the comments or via email at movingnorth@gmail.com, but remember that the NSA® is like Santa – they know who has been naughty and who has been nice.  Unlike Santa, however, the NSA™ is real.  Not sure about whether or not they jiggle like a bowl of Jell-O® when they laugh.  Guess it depends on how good the Federal wellness program is?

Lathechuck posted in the comments of a recent post (Cognitive Dissonance, Normalcy Bias, and Survival, with Wonder Woman, Bigfoot, Johnny Carson, Stalin, and a Bond Girl.) following gem – “Favorite topic to see explained: how mortgage payments are independent of interest rates.”

Housing is an emotional issue for most people.  It’s the reason that realtors say “it’s not a house, it’s a home,” and advise people selling houses to bake cookies so that fresh-baked cookie smell permeates the house and also suggests that you remove the corpses from the fridge prior to a showing.  Very few people want to open a fridge in a house they’re thinking about buying and see even a single severed head staring back at them, let alone three!  I think it’s the “not blinking” that puts people off?

I guess that’s what I get for buying Marilyn Manson’s old house.

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Yeah, it’s odd when a picture of Marilyn Manson discussing Joe Biden touching him suddenly makes the post less creepy.

I’ve never seen people get more upset than being involved in a negotiation over the purchase of a house – it becomes personal, and ceases being a business transaction.  And when people take things personally, people get emotional.  When people get emotional, people get stupid.

“How could he say that about my home?”  Yeah, I know you raised your kids there/did the tile in the bathroom yourself/became a self-taught expert on shaving and tattooing baboon crotches.  Honestly, I don’t care as long as you take all the baboon hair with you.  The more I know about you, the less I like your house, because how will it ever become my house, especially if I’m still finding baboon hair in three years?

Our realtor advised us that, given that we have about several thousand pounds worth of books, our house would sell much better if we weren’t in it.  I would wager that we have the most comprehensive library in Upper Lower Midwestia on several topics (none of which involve tattooing baboons).  To be 100% honest – the Wilder family has never, not once, sold a house that we were living in.  We are far too odd, and the skeleton on the front porch seems to be a bit off-putting.  Real conversation we had once:

New neighbor, enthusiastically:  “Nice Halloween decorations!”

The Mrs.:  “Halloween?”

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The Mrs. took this picture one day while I was at work when we lived in Houston.  The statue got broken by a dog after we moved to Modern Mayberry.  Response?  We have a new statue, but we keep it inside.  Yes. I have a bigfoot statue in my living room.  Who would buy a house from a family that had a bigfoot statue in their living?  Nobody.  You just can’t forget crap like that.

Realtors try to actually increase your anxiety with sales patter.  One technique that salespeople used on me when I was young was to magnify the importance of the decision way out of proportion.  “This will be the most important financial decision that you’ll ever make . . .”

That’s a lie.  The most important financial decision you’ll ever make is your choice of spouse – and the next most important financial decision is your choice of career.  The third most important financial decision you’ll make?  Paper or plastic.

As I got older, I wondered about why a salesman would try to inject a scary thought like that in the middle of a negotiation.  Shouldn’t they be trying to make me calm and happy with the decision?

No.

The sales process is entirely about emotional manipulation.  Salespeople are actively trained in creating mind-games to sway your emotions.  It’s what they do.  There are entire manuals on the Internet devoted to the process of managing the way a buyer feels through every step of the car buying process.  And salesmen go through it dozens of times a week.  The average buyer goes through it a few times a decade.  Who do you think is better at it?

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I don’t know what the name of this emotion is, but I’ve felt it.  Also, this emotion goes well with a nice Chianti and some fava beans.  Plus?  I really enjoyed writing this caption.

Realtors do the same thing.  The incentive for the Realtor™ taking you from house to house while you tangle their seatbelts isn’t to put you into the best possible house for you at the best price.  Your Realtor© isn’t your friend, they’re a salesman.  Their incentive is to sell a house.

The incentive for the Realtor® listing a house for a client isn’t to get them the best possible price.  The incentive for the Realtor© to sell their house.  Quickly, if possible.

The buying realtor and selling realtor split a six percent commission.  So, if you have a house that you want to sell for $300,000 and the realtor can sell it more quickly for $250,000, they’ll try to get you to price it for $250,000.  Why?  A certain $7,500 now is preferable to maybe getting $9,000 later.  The extra $50,000 to them isn’t irrelevant, it’s an impediment to them getting a commission this month.

Other advice you’re given is that “interest rates are low, it’s the best time to buy.”  Based on history, interest rates today are very low – nearly a record low.  But how does that impact the price of a house?

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You can see how serious that interest rates are by the expression on Candy’s face.  You certainly don’t want to be caught underwater on an expensive house, or without $1 bills when she’s pole dancing a bit later on the main stage.

Now for boring math:  If you bought a house for $250,000 at 4%, your monthly payment would be $1,194 (before taxes and insurance).  I hear the entire state of California laughing at that sales price, since most of them had to give up all of their spare organs like kidneys, nostrils, or eyes just to qualify for a down payment.  Guess I won’t mention that in Modern Mayberry you can get a 4,000 square foot (16,000,000 square meter) riverfront house on 3 acres for that amount of cash.  I’m not kidding.  It’s a nice house, nicer than mine.

Okay, we all agree that $250,000 for 4,000 square foot house sounds like a great deal, but what would your house payment be at 8% interest?  $1834.  Ouch!  That’s an extra $640 per month!  Outrageous!  Will Bernie Sanders save us?

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See?  Communists can even make drinking suck.

No, because Bernie lives in fantasy land.  But for grins, let’s pretend that you bought that house at 4%.  Four years later, the interest rate pops back up to 8%.  Time to sell because your psycho soon-to-be ex-wife entered a less than honorable relationship with Johnny Depp.  Let’s assume that the average wage where your house is will support that $1,194 per month payment.  How much can you sell your house for at 8% to attract a buyer at that payment?

About $160,000.

That’s a net loss of $90,000.  If you absolutely had to sell the house, you’d be out that $90,000, and some people work a whole month and don’t make that much money!

Does the same principle apply when interest rates are going down?  Sure.  I had a house for sale when the interest rate dropped by 3% over a weekend.  Weird – I think the Federal Reserve ate a bunch of marijuana brownies and slept with the cast of Cats®.  I went from no lookers in a month to three full price offers in a single day, netting me a 50% profit on the house.  That might explain why the drop in interest rates from the late 1990’s (about 8%) to the 6%-ish number of the early 2000’s helped inflate the Housing Bubble that almost ate the economy.

If low interest rates raise home prices, high interest rates make house prices drop – it’s that simple.

But the story doesn’t end there.  Homeowners are generally voters, so lawmakers like to do things homeowners like.  Examples include:

  • Making homes harder to build by putting in silly restrictions. San Francisco is a prime example of this strategy, having regulations that strictly prevent higher density development.  Lower supply?  Higher cost.
  • Property tax caps. These insulate homeowners from market price increases at the expense of newer homeowners.
  • Giving homeowners a free massage near election time.

Legislators realize that people who don’t want homes might want them and might one day be voters, so they have (in the past) put in place laws that:

  • Prohibit lenders from not lending to people with bad credit. Certainly no consequences to that idea.
  • Provide loans that are easier to qualify for with sketchy qualifications (FHA). As a recipient of two FHA loans, I guess I’m okay with the government guaranteeing massive amounts of money to people just out of their teens, because young people make the very best  Go Sanders 2020!  Am I right, fellow young people?

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Listen to Mr. Pink when you have a decision to make – he’s such a young hep cat.  Tippecanoe and Tyler too!  Just noting, there aren’t many blogs making jokes about the election of 1840.  For that sort of cutting edge comedy, you’ve got to come here.

Politicians want housing prices to go only one way – up.  As prices go up, people who want to buy houses have a few choices:

  • Suck it up and pay the big bucks,
  • Commute from some distance just inside the orbit of Mars to get a lower price, which has the effect of raising prices in the new housing subdivision on Phobos,
  • Rent, or
  • Move to a city or state that doesn’t cost as much.

Believe it or not, there are places that don’t cost as much as California, with odd little names like “the People’s Republic of Washington” or “the Oregon Soviet People’s Collective” that you can move to.  Readers of this blog would be better advised to move to states that are not actively governed by Che Guevara’s Ouija® board.  Oddly, they are known as “red” states.

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Actual Che quote:  “If you tremble with indignation at every injustice, then you are a comrade of mine.”  Looks like he was triggered before triggered was a thing.  But he did it ironically.

In Modern Mayberry, I’m thinking that Chateau Wilder has probably decreased in value by 10% to 20% since we bought it.  Yikes!  But the decade I’ve lived here, the total I’ve paid in mortgage payments plus an assumed 20% depreciation is less than three years in a one bedroom apartment in San Francisco.  Oh, the torture, having to live on five acres with a lake for a decade rather than three years in a one bedroom.  I feel so deprived.

I bought a house, not an investment.  If you’re trying to invest, the best buy will be a neighborhood that’s going to be popular in the future in an area where wages are going up, so you need a crystal ball and there’s still risk involved – but it is a great way to get rich quick.  Buying in a recession is great, especially if you know the future.  Many a small fortune has been made in real estate, and some of these small fortunes were initially large ones.

Selling is easier:  sell into low interest rates in high demand, high wage areas.  Also?  Avoid Detroit.

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Yes, making fun of Detroit is like kicking a puppy.  In my defense it’s a really, really, ugly puppy.

Beware if you’re buying in a hot market at low interest rates and if you’re planning on selling quickly.  You just might get caught.  Not that we’ve seen that before.

Beer, Technology, Beer, Tide Pods, Beer, Civilizational Stability, and Beer

“We’ll soon stage an attack on technology worthy of being chronicled in an anthem by Rush!” – Futurama

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In honor of Göbekli Tepe, I decided to take a morning run, but autocorrect changed it to “morning rum,” so, change of plans, guys!

Göbekli Tepe is an archeological site that dates back almost to 10,000 B.C. (12,000 years ago in metric).  12,000 years is a long time, in fact it is older than both agriculture and cities, but younger than my mother-in-law.  But the other thing that it’s not older than . . . is beer.  At Göbekli Tepe they found brewing vessels.  And these weren’t small vessels, they were huge vats up to 160 liters in size, complete with chemical residue from brewing beer.  If they can find chemical evidence of beer 12,000 years later, there’s no wonder mom could smell it even after I’d chewed a pack of minty gum.

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This is how I like to imagine they figured out that beer was brewed at Göbekli Tepe.

Beer is older than farms.  Beer is older than agriculture.  The logical question is this:  did people start cities and agriculture . . . just so they had beer on a regular basis?  Is the reason that we have cities right now . . . the liquor store?

It looks like that’s the case.  Nomadic man might not have had Netflix® or Ruffles©, but those weren’t necessary.  Most studies show that when man was nomadic, the rates of leisure were higher than they are today.  The things they did for food (hunting, fishing, and gathering) are enough fun that we do those as hobbies today.  But what was missing?

Beer.  Without a steady stream of beer there wasn’t any way they could say, “Hold my beer and watch this.”  Why is this important?  It’s important because everyone knows that no really good story starts with the words, “So, I was having a salad . . .”

The technology of beer brewing changed mankind.  And I’ll assure you, living in the very first cities that we know of would be nothing like living in a city today – no Uber.  These first cities were founded around 7,500 B.C. in Mesopotamia, and had really cool names like Eridu, Uruk, and Ur that remind me of Swedish death metal band names.

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I think that someone triggered him by giving him a hug.

But the first residents of Ur weren’t like you or I.  Exactly how they were different is probably difficult to even guess, but we’ve had nearly 500 generations between them and today’s humans.  And that’s changed us significantly – back in the timeframe that Ur was being formed, most men didn’t reproduce, but most women did.  When civilization was getting started around 6,000 B.C., only one guy in 17 reproduced.  Yes.  The average baby-daddy in Uruk in 6,000 B.C. was impregnating 17 females.  So, your great-great-great-great-great-great-great-grandma was a tramp, all because people made cities to get beer.

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What is not shown very well is that the woman’s side scale was nearly three times the scale on the men’s side.  This is graphical evidence that your great-great-great-great-great-great-great-grandma was a tramp.  Oops.  Mine, too.  Grandma, how could you?

In the United States today, about 3/4 of men father children while 85% of women reproduce.  This is significantly better than the average I’ve seen that shows throughout history 80% of women had children while only 40% of men fathered children.  Technology, in this case agriculture and beer, has changed humanity.  Beer goggles appear to work both ways in the modern United States.

Regardless, change from nomadic human to agricultural/urban human has taken us thousands of years to adapt to, and, honestly, I’m still not sold on the cities.  But I’ll keep the beer, thank you.

Other changes that were made possible by the move from nomadic human to urban human include the first:

  • Requirement for Money,
  • Economic Viability of Slavery,
  • Permanent Government,
  • Debt,
  • Taxes, and
  • Bar Tabs.

We don’t remember the things that were problems before agriculture, probably because we were having such a good time not living in cities that we didn’t bother to develop a written language to gripe about our problems.  What’s to gripe about?  I have to go hunting again?  I don’t have a job because there aren’t any jobs so I get to go fishing?  Bummer.

Over time, in the thousands of years since the development of agriculture, coping mechanisms evolved that created stability in the “new” urban-agricultural society.  Pretty significant adaptations included:

  • Organized Religion,
  • Creation of Classes,
  • Division of Labor,
  • Eating Tide© Pods, and
  • Laws.

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Shhh.  Don’t warn the kids.  Let evolution run its course. 

These adaptations allowed post-agricultural civilization to become stable, or at least stable enough so that empires could form.  But as people changed their environment, their environment changed them.  It takes seven generations (at minimum) to create a new dog breed.

How long until a new type of human is bred by the new conditions in the city?  If I were to guess, given that humans are much more complicated that it would take 20 or more generations.  Rather than going off to hunt they’d have to do the same job, day after day, for years at a time.  Rather than start a fight with a machete because they were mad about friends who put mayonnaise and strawberry jelly in their hard hat, they’d laugh.  That alone probably took about five hundred years.

Some people didn’t make the transition.  The result, if you’re a guy?  You don’t breed.

Monogamy became more firmly embedded in society only in the West, and was primarily spread by Western society, being a recent (within the last 200 years) in most places that aren’t Western.  This had an amazingly stabilizing effect on society as a whole – fathers have more of a stake in the future of society.  Sure, kings and powerful guys had mistresses, but for the most part more men (on a percentage basis) got to have children than ever in history.

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DEFCON 1:  This would be The Mrs.’ reaction to me having a mistress.

Thousands of years of evolution of both society and of the humans that make up society led us to a fairly stable way of doing things.  Monogamy, sex roles, class, and hierarchy allowed life to proceed smoothly, and wealth to be created in society.  I’m not saying that it was better than hunting and fishing all day, but there was certainly more beer.  And after electricity, cold beer.  The 1950’s was probably the height (in the United States) of this society in many respects.

  • Women didn’t work as much – they didn’t have to.
  • Divorce rates were low – mom and dad stayed together.
  • Illegal drug use was low – yes, people drank. That was the point of society, right?
  • Church attendance was high.
  • Biggest problem of 1950’s schools? Gum chewing.

The last sixty years, however, has led to the greatest amount of technological and social change in any sixty years in the history of humanity.  What changes?

  • Birth Control – The Pill was introduced in 1960 – graph below. You’d have thought this would have led to lower births out of wedlock, but, not really.  I don’t really understand this, since very few babies are married when born, outside of Pakistan.

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I was born out of wedlock.  Not married at all.  Oh, and neither was my mom.  Sometimes the trend is your friend.

  • Significant Immigration from Non-Western Cultures – massive influxes of people in societies happens in history, but every time that it happens, it later gets called “an invasion.”

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I’m still looking for examples of successful multi-cultural civilizations.  I even went onto a communist website to search for them.  Still came up empty, though I do realize now that real communism has not been tried yet.  Whew!  I was worried that the unending stream of failures meant that it would fail here, too.

  • Massive Welfare – In 1965 President Johnson proclaimed the Great Society – we’d make everyone rich. Despite hundreds of billions in welfare spending, the only thing the Great Society created was roughly the same amount of poor people, but poor people who now depend on the government.  Might be correlated with illegitimate births?

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Thankfully, we’ve seen no more need of welfare after spending this much and poverty and people protesting for more money has disappeared.  Yay!  I love winning!

  • Fragmentation of Communication – in 1983, the highest-rated television program in history (non-sports) in the United States happened. It will never happen again.  Television has fragmented into hundreds of channels, plus dozens of online services, giving millions of options.  But the common culture from communication is gone.
  • Decline in Religion – Religious observance has dropped in America, despite religious belief being vitally important during Colonial times, when it is estimated that up to 80% of colonists were regular church goers, compared with 37% today. You may not be a religious, but it’s yet another commonality that we’ve lost.
  • The Internet – prior to the Internet, most person to person communication was local. Now?  Left-handed dentists with impaired vision can form their own FaceBorg® group.  The Internet brings us together.  The Internet also allows us to fragment.

The Internet might be the most significant technological change of recent memory.  There was a time when we actually argued about facts rather than hitting Google® to solve an argument.  Now?  Nope.  But the Internet isn’t a tool for unity, it’s a tool for fragmentation.

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Start with Futurama™, end with The Simpsons©.  Is there anything beer can’t do?

We’ve been living with technological change for thousands of years and trying to cope with it since we started the first cities.  Who knows where this will all end up?  And to think, it all started with some guy founding the first city 10,000 years ago saying, “Hold my beer, watch this . . . .”

Wedlock, Divorce Graphs, H/T Secular Patriarchy (LINK).

Göbekli Tepe picture via Teomancimit [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]

This post was spawned by some comments with James over at Bison Prepper (LINK), but no bison were harmed during the production of this post.

Currency Collapse Explained Using Sexy Bikini Girl Graphs, Part II

“You’re the one that’s collapsing.  Been sitting at that contraption for twenty-two years.  It’s time you tried a girl.” – The Addams Family

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It is related to the post.  I promise.  That makes it literature, so you have to like it.  It’s sophisticated and swanky.

This series of posts was inspired by a great e-mail from Ricky.  This is Part Two.  Part One can be found here (Big Swedish Coins, Italian Women Pole Vaulters, and the Future of Money, Part I).

Let’s – again – state the basic thesis in Ricky’s words:

“I’m right there with you that collapse is coming to our house of cards because of the way they were dealt.  But after all of the individual survival dramas play out, survival ultimately depends on a community rising from the ashes.  And the glue of a community is ultimately the deals made between its individuals.  And money is the encapsulation of those deals.

“So when the dust settles and the smoke clears and the phoenix rises from the ashes of the eagle’s nest, there’s gonna need to be a reset on money.  On what it is, and how it works.”

Last time we looked at the financial history of the United States up until the Civil War.  The first Civil War, not the next one (Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming), I mean.

Just a few generations after the Revolutionary War, in the 1860’s, both halves of the United States defaulted on currency during the Civil War.  The North defaulted on gold redemption in 1863, and the South printed Confederate currency like they were trying to make the Founding Fathers look like that one sailor that stayed in his bunk reading the Bible when the Seventh Fleet hit Sydney.  My father-in-law swears that’s what he did, and no one with an Australian accent has shown up claiming to be The Mrs.’ long-lost sister.

Okay, after the Civil War, the United States is at least done with defaulting, right?  I mean, we started up the Federal Reserve Bank™ in 1913 to stop these sorts of shenanigans, so that must have worked?

No.  If the Federal Reserve ever pretended to have the mission of maintaining the stability of the dollar, it failed like one of Oprah’s diets.

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Ricky sent this one.  It’s perfect, with the exception that it doesn’t contain girls wearing bikinis.  I think . . . we can do better.  I think . . . we can Make Economics Sexy Again!

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See, fixed that for you, Ricky.  Graph is now 1000% better, unlike our currency.  You can see her toes are pointed down into the sand, which shows that the value of the dollar is lower.  Also, if I can point your attention to the years between 1950 and 1965 you can see what an amazing, um, time span that was.

In 1933, the United States had $4 billion in gold.  Sadly, it owed $22 billion in gold that it would have to pay off in just a four years.

Solution?

Make owning gold by your own citizens illegal, and make them hand it in on penalty of going to jail if they don’t.  After you’ve got those dollars, redefine the dollar so that it’s worth a lot less.  Presto!  You’ve stolen all the gold and then made the resulting “dollars” that your citizens have worth a lot less.  Then you can give your cheaper dollars to other governments in payment.  It’s like being Enron®, but with 100% less jail time, so it’s exactly like being a Kennedy.

So, yeah, I’d call that a default, too.

Finally in the 1970’s, the French decided that they could wake up from their wine and cigarette haze long enough to see that the United States was way short on the amount of gold necessary to pay all the debts that Johnson and Nixon created to get elected.

Defaulting on your currency is like a divorce:  once is a mistake, twice is a trend, and by the third time….maybe, just maybe, it’s you.  The French decided to be sneaky, and took all of their dollars, showed up at the bank, probably with a baguette under each arm, and requested gold.  The United States essentially said, “Umm, we didn’t think that you thought we were serious about that.  OMG, LOL!” and stopped giving anyone gold in exchange for their dollar.   My scoring:  yet another default.

Since August 15, 1971, the United States dollar is backed by our sterling record of fiscal responsibility, along with thousands of nuclear warheads.  As Pop Wilder always used to say, “You get farther with a kind word and a sophisticated professional military and thousands of nuclear warheads than you do with just a kind word.”

I would my own discovery, the John Wilder Rule of Sexy Economics™: “You get more attention with bikini girl economics graphs than with just economics graphs.”

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As careful study of this graph will show, the glorious years of 1970 led to the bare times to follow and a sensitive employment time in the early 1980’s.  Unemployment never looked so good.

So, that’s a little bit about money along with some recent history.  Looking at all of history, though, I’d say what happens with money depends upon the kind of collapse we expect to see.  For the sake of simplicity, I’ll break collapses into three sizes.  Why these three sizes?  As of the time of writing I’m a bit thirsty, and the local convenience store only has three drink sizes.  Here they are:

  • Medium: The definition of a Medium failure includes monetary easing.  It could also include a default that may cause economic hardship, but doesn’t impact the government of the country or the ability of a country to issue its own currency.  This describes all of the defaults of the United States.
  • Large: This involves the complete destruction of a currency.  Common examples are Weimar Germany or modern-day Wakanda©  In both cases, the currency imploded as the major engineering problem of the day was how to print more money, faster (hint:  the Germans only printed on one side to double press production).  In Germany, the change led complete dissolution of society and a rebuilding under . . . well, Literally That One Guy Nobody Can Mention.  In Zimbabwe, it led to complete destruction of the currency and eventual loss of power for the guy who had been President for as long as Zimbabwe had been Zimbabwe.
  • Big Gulp®: This is the complete destruction of the economic as well as political system.  Rome, long laboring under a fiat currency, finally imploded and left behind a smoking crater that took hundreds of years to fill.  Thankfully, refills are only $0.29 with purchase of the official mug!

So what happens to an individual in one of these failures?

In a Medium Failure, you can keep your currency, if you like it, but what cost $100 a few years ago probably costs $1000 now.  Everybody adapts and you can generally go about your business, but you’re poorer and not at all happy, and it looks a lot like the Housing Bubble of the 2000’s.  Another analogy: it’s like you were forced to spend way too much time with my ex-wife.

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The Housing Bubble can be seen pretty clearly here.  Somewhere.  Keep looking.  You have my permission.

In a Large Failure, ultimately the currency is toast.  Your money is gone.  But the country will restart the economy using either a new currency, or just by adopting an outside currency that’s moderated by someone marginally more adult than you.  Zimbabwe’s unofficial currency is the United States dollar, but there aren’t enough of them to go around, so many people use mobile currency that’s (more or less) run by cell phone companies.  When your cell phone company has a much better record of fiscal restraint than your government?  Yikes.

A Big Gulp© Failure is social collapse.  The biggest one in recent Western history is Rome.  The Roman Big Gulp® was so big that it spawned collapse after collapse in nation after nation as Rome shrank away from areas it could no longer afford to protect or govern. Great Britain is an example of the collapse.  After the last Roman Legion left people buried their money . . . and never dug it up.  Why?

The silver content of Roman coins in the late Empire consisted of waving a bit of silver over the top of the molten metal before a coin was made.  Rome had gone full fiat.  Roman coins, in the absence of Roman troops, were worthless.  Money itself was abandoned, and barter was the key, when local bandits and warlords didn’t just take what they wanted.

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You want a worthless currency?  This is how you get a worthless currency..

How do we get to these collapses, and how likely are they?

Medium Failure:  I think that there may be as high as a 70%-90% chance of a Medium Failure hitting the United States in the lifetime of the average reader.  The challenges we will face with medical care (More Budget Doom, The Rolling Stones, an End Date, and an Unlikely Version of Thunderstruck) and the possibility that the politicians won’t resist the lure of free money promised by Modern Monetary Theory (The Worst Economic Idea Since Socialism, Explained Using Bikini Girl Graphs).  Read the articles at the link.  They were written by a cool guy I know, but before he really focused on getting better.

As a reminder of how close this might be to happening, a penny costs about $0.02 to make, so to get your two cents worth only costs a penny now, and that’s after they took out all the copper.  The copper alone in an old (pre-1979) penny is nearly $0.02.  It would cost about $0.04 to make a copper penny today.  A nickel costs $0.06 to $0.08 to make.  A dollar in pre-1964 silver coins is worth $10.60 at the time of this writing, which tells you that we’ve really already failed at keeping the value of our money up.

Ricky points out some interesting alternatives to currency in some of the supporting links he sent.  Just like Zimbabwe leaned on cell phone providers to be less insane and more trustworthy than the government, Facebook® is betting that its new currency, named the libra (LINK) will be less insane than the dollar, and has the added bonus of having the word “bra” as part of its name.  Honestly, I would have thought that Facebook™ would have denominated its currency in selfies and named it the lookatme.

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Student loan debt makes you feel like you can’t afford much clothing, and you’re between a rock and a hard place.  And very fit and tan and covered with oil.

Large Failure:  Large failures are big.  I mean, it’s in the name “Large.”  It generally comes after really horrible financial malfeasance for years.  Our current medical payment system (which is really bad) will, if not fixed, lead to a large failure.  Other notable large failures?  The start and end of the Soviet Union.  North Korea.  Nationalist China.  The country is still a country, and, with outside help and a new government, can, after a generation emerge from chaos.

I think there’s as high as a 40-50% chance this will happen within the lives of the average reader.

Big Gulp© Failure:  What would lead to a modern Big Gulp™-Level, end of Rome type event?  Nuclear war.  Running out of hydrocarbons.  Meteor impact on George Clooney’s ego.  Catastrophic disease.  Reuniting the Spice Girls®.  Regardless of the cause, I could easily see a failure of this magnitude ending 90% of the human lives on the planet.

Big Gulp® failures might last 1,000 years, since the last one lasted 500 years.  That means, since the time of Christ, Western Civilization was in a Big Gulp™ failure for 25% of the time.  Still – it only happened once.  I’d give a likelihood of 5-10% of this occurring within the lifespan of the average reader.  Pray some of the Spice Girls© have bad tickers.

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Okay, these aren’t the Spice Girls™, but their ascending height from left to right is the perfect way to show that whatever lines are on this graph are going up from left to right.  I assume the thing going up is bad.

Checklist – Signs of a Currency Collapse:

  1. Gasoline is priced in goats.
  2. Bankers take cold pizza as mortgage payments.
  3. You can pay off your medical school student loans with the change from buying a candy bar.
  4. Bill Gates is bumming cash by cleaning windows of passing cars.
  5. $100 bills are too cheap to use as notepaper.
  6. Americans are caught sneaking into Honduras.
  7. George Soros begins laying off politicians and selling some on E-Bay®.
  8. The IRS starts giving a 25% discount for cash.
  9. Your financial adviser will have helped you get to a small fortune, but only if you started with a large fortune.
  10. You try to make a withdrawal at the bank and they tell you they have insufficient funds.

So, Ricky, there it is, Part I and Part II.  See you in Stockholm to pick up our Nobel Prize™!

Don’t forget to bikini wax.

Big Swedish Coins, Italian Women Pole Vaulters, and the Future of Money, Part I

“Dollars? There’sa wherea my uncle lives.  Dollars, Taxes!” – Duck Soup

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We’re gonna need a bigger purse . . .

This post was inspired by a great e-mail from Ricky, which makes it the second reader-inspired post I’ve done this month.  Heck, it’s the second in seven days.  We’ll see the post I was originally going to do next week, probably.  I plan these posts out weeks in advance and have a backlog of over a year’s worth of planned post topics, but the requests are just so much fun.

Here’s the basic thesis statement in Ricky’s words:

“I’m right there with you that collapse is coming to our house of cards because of the way they were dealt.  But after all of the individual survival dramas play out, survival ultimately depends on a community rising from the ashes.  And the glue of a community is ultimately the deals made between its individuals.  And money is the encapsulation of those deals.

“So when the dust settles and the smoke clears and the phoenix rises from the ashes of the eagle’s nest, there’s gonna need to be a reset on money.  On what it is, and how it works.”

There’s a lot more information from Ricky which may lead to yet another post, but this statement alone is a great taking off point.

To address this question, let’s go back to first principles.  First, I’ll restate:

What does money look like after the collapse? 

I’ll start from first principles so that everyone has an idea of where I’m coming from.  The most basic first principle about money is this simple question:

What is money?

I can’t answer any better than to say that money is an idea.  Sure, you’d look through all of the piles of money I keep at Chateau Wilder and say that those stacks of cash and piles of gold and silver doubloons were money.  And they are money.

Heck, the Swedes once mined and refined so much copper (around the year 1600 A.D. or so) that they couldn’t sell it all, since the tuba, which uses approximately 89% of world copper production had yet to be invented.  Being crafty Swedes they came up with the idea that the best way to use all that extra copper was to put Sweden on the “copper standard.”  Since these Swedes were apparently very strong but not particularly bright, they took the concept to 11 and used nothing but copper coins as currency.  Okay, sure, it’s silly.  But we can make it Wilder-level silly:  let’s not use lots of small coins, let’s make ludicrously large coins.  I mean the Rosie O’Donnell of coins.  Some of the coins they used were quite O’Donnellesque, with the largest one weighing about 45 pounds.  You could get your lifting in by just going grocery shopping, which may explain why Planet Fitness® franchises were so unprofitable in Sweden in 1620.

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Yes, a 45 pound coin.  Don’t get me started about how large their pockets were, but as a hint they could hold an entire twelve pack, a dozen clowns and the case of Avengers:  Endgame.  FYI:  This was a 10 “Daler” coin.  Daler came from the Bohemian coin name “Thaler,” which later became Dollar.

In the simplest definition, money is just something that we agree is money.  Money is perhaps the most abstract concept people deal with on a regular basis, and we’re forced to deal with it practically and emotionally even though most money doesn’t exist physically even as a dollar bill:  it’s a ledger entry on a balance sheet on a bank, and it’s not backed by anything.  At all.

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Counting spare change was how the Swedish women trained for the 1644 Olympics®.  But that’s back when men were men.  In 2019, however, “men” can be pregnant and “women” can drive well.  Soon enough?  Men will cry and be in touch with their feelings.

Money can be a gold coin, or a promise for, say, a bushel of wheat or a cigarette.  Money can also be a string of numbers or just a piece of paper.  As long as there’s someone who will trade you a rifle or a beer or a T-34 tank for it, it’s money.

We’ve been dealing with “money as just an idea” for so long we even have a name for money which has less backing than a third Hillary™ presidential campaign:  Fiat© money.  Fiat comes from the Latin for “found on roadside dead” – oh, wait, that’s Ford®.  Fiat™ is “fix it again, Tony,” which is more literally translated from the Latin as “let there be.”  This means that fiat money is “let there be” money.  Those Italians were good with language.  It’s good when we keep Italians working on language, wine, and hot Italian chicks doing pole vault because Italian engineers can’t seem to figure out how to keep oil on the inside of the car.

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In the best version of Europe, Germans chicks do shot put and car engine design.  The Italian chicks do pole vault.  Preferably in slow motion.  

Money in the United States today is fiat money, made up money.

The net result is that we send money that we printed from cool paper and people from around the world fight for the opportunity to give us oil, gold, PEZ®, flat screen televisions, and other physical things.  Heck, they even ship it to us using our made-up currency as payment for the shipping costs.  To top it off, if we’re feeling lazy that day, a guy in comfortable shoes working in a windowless office in Washington D.C. will press a button and a computer will spit out strings of digits that we’ll use for money because paper is just too much trouble.

If the United States doesn’t have enough money, the solution is simple:  we’ll print (or make up) some more.

If you’re shaking your head wondering how we convinced the world that this was a good deal, well, I am too.  It might have something to do with all of those nuclear missiles and the strange thing that happens to world leaders that announce that they’re going to start trading internationally in currency other than the dollar.  Or, heck, maybe the United States has a track record of really being super fiscally responsible?

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Yes, there are many good reasons to take the dollar.

Well . . . no.  In actuality, the United States defaulted on the very first debt it ever took on, represented by the Continental dollar, which was supposed to be (at the start) the same as a Spanish silver dollar.  How badly did we default on that debt?  Well, we ended up printing $241 million dollars, which doesn’t include the huge numbers of British forgery notes that were created during the Revolutionary War to mess with our economy.  It was like we were trying to pay for muskets and wooden teeth with Tribbles® instead of real money.  It was worse than Tribbles© – at least you can make good soup with a Tribble if you pluck it right.  Nope – most of the creditors ended up with nothing, which makes a pretty poor soup unless you’re fasting (The Last Weight Loss Advice You’ll Ever Need, Plus a Girl in a Bikini Drinking Water).

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Worst thing about Tribble© soup?  The bones. 

This particular default stung our Founding Fathers Parental Units (it is 2019, after all) so much that when the Constitutional Convention met, they added into the Constitution that “No State shall . . . make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts  . . . .”

So, the United States learned its financial lesson and never ended up with financial problems again.

Just kidding.  We’re still a financial basketcase.  But we have nukes.

I hate to leave you on a cliffhanger, but this is now an average length post, and I’ve already written more than you’ve read here in Part 1 for Part 2, and I haven’t put the funny bits in yet.  So, more coming on Friday which will work towards answering the thesis that Ricky put forward above.

Thanks, Ricky!

High Trust Societies, Low Trust Societies, Red Dawn, and Castro

“There is no promise you can make that I can trust.”  The Lord of the Rings:  The Two Towers

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Anyone seen my hobbits?  I know I left them here.  Or maybe the name was similar?

Note:  I’ve had a tremendous number of emails since the Civil War post.  If I haven’t gotten back to you, I will shortly.  Thanks!!

On Friday and Saturday, The Mrs. and I took The Boy and Pugsley off to the nearby Big City for the weekend.  The Boy and Pugsley had a 10 hour class, split between two days.  That left The Mrs. and I to ride around the town.  The Mrs. and I had lived in Big City years ago, so Big City was familiar, even though 8 miles of what had been vacant farmland when we moved away had been converted to strip malls, chain restaurants, big box stores, and the rest of the standard commercial establishments that make up nearly every generic copy of Big City in the Midwest.  The farms had character.  Each was different.  This?  This was as featureless and bland as Bernie Sanders’ forehead covered in mayonnaise and Monkee’s® music.

We stopped at one fast food restaurant for a snack while we waited for the boys to finish class for the night.  We ate for a bit, and then I got up to get more iced tea.  I walked back to the table.

“Now that’s why I’m glad we don’t live here anymore!”  The Mrs. was furious.

Confused, I looked around, and back at the table.  Nothing seemed to be amiss.

“Okay, umm, why?”

“That little kid,” she gestured at a little blonde guy of about 10 who was busy running around the table near his parents, “just ran between your chair and the table.”    I had only slightly pushed my chair back in when I went to go get tea, but there was less than a foot between my chair and the table.

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He also had a pretty cool boomerang that he kept throwing at me, but I never could quite catch it.

As far as indiscretions go, it wasn’t up there with armed robbery using a chicken as a weapon, but the point was made.  These parents were letting their kid run wild in a fast food restaurant.  We never saw that behavior in Modern Mayberry.  We’d figured out the “why” of that fairly soon after we moved there.

People here in Modern Mayberry don’t have the option of anonymity.  If I cut a person off in traffic, it might be the principle of the school.  If I am a jerk to a clerk at Wal-Mart®, we’ll hear about it, because the clerk knows someone I know.  Who?  I’m not sure.  But in a small town, there’s someone in common.

In Modern Mayberry?  You have a reputation.  Your family has a reputation.  People aren’t horribly nosy here, but word spreads.

When I was young, I liked the concept of libertarianism, enough to even join the Libertarian party and vote for people who had zero chance of being elected.  It wasn’t too bad – you could always see that you were one of the 10 or so votes the candidate got on election night.  The idea of Libertarianism is simple:  Go do (more or less) what you want.  Don’t hurt other people.  Enjoy.  Repeat.  Libertarianism is really just individualism on a large scale, but with more Star Wars® t-shirts and fewer showers.

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I never had braces.  But I also never raced across a field to give a beat-down to the British.

The United States was (more or less) founded on this type of individualism, though I have no idea how Ben Franklin smelled, and I think he was a Star Trek© fan instead of Star Wars®.  Liberty was one of the few things that all of the members of the Constitutional Convention could agree upon – the folks from Massachusetts weren’t entirely sure about the folks from Georgia, and vice versa.  But if Massachusetts would promise to leave Georgia pretty much alone, Georgia figured they could at least try to make it work.

This lasted until 1860, but that’s another story.  Spoiler:  Massachusetts won’t take, “It’s not you, it’s me,” for an answer.

Thankfully, the American people also had a built-in safety valve – they could move West at any time their neighbor (or state!) annoyed them.  This added, especially in the Midwest and Mountain areas, a strong sense of, “Leave me alone, you’re not my supervisor.”  People would move into an areas with a weak government that couldn’t do much for them.  It also couldn’t ask much of them.

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First two seasons of Archer were pretty good.  I wouldn’t go much past that.  Not for kids.

Individually was the norm, if I can get away with saying that, and the individuality was, like a hipster convention, nearly identical from one person to the next.  Generally, as long as behavior was circumscribed by the predominant values of the time, it was all good.  The values that were both required by and created by that streak of individualism were:

  • Fair Play – that there were rules, and, generally we were all expected to abide by them. Sure, rich people got a better deal, but even they were not completely above the law.  I don’t care if you are my supervisor – you’re not cutting in line.
  • Meritocracy – the best person generally got the job, generally got the promotion. Was there nepotism?  Was there political favoritism?    But those words still have negative connotations.  And when smart people get hired into a family business, they know that the goofy, entitled son will get the corner office before they do.  But if your kid has the highest GPA?  They’ll be valedictorian.
  • Personal Restraint – Just because it’s illegal doesn’t make it moral. And just because you have the right, doesn’t require you to do it.  Either by guilt or by shame or by good common sense, Americans had generally shown the prudence to show restraint.
  • Generally Accepted Norms – One of the lessons that I’ve shared with my kids is a simple one: where politeness fails, laws follow.  The one guy in the subdivision decides he wants to recreate Jurassic Park®-level vegetation in his front yard will mow because his wife doesn’t want to catch abuse from the other wives as they sacrifice puppies to Gorto or play cards or whatever women do when men aren’t around.
  • Faith in Fellow Citizens – If your car breaks down on a lonely night in winter, it’s likely that the next person who passes by will stop and to help. The colder it is, the lonelier it is?  The more likely they are to stop.  They feel safe in stopping, because of the next point, an obligation to stop.
  • Sense of Community – On Friday night, the local football stadium will be filled. People will know where you sit, and you’ll see familiar faces every game. You know the owner of the restaurant you go to every Friday.  The auto repair place knows the names of your kids, as does the barber and the dentist.  The superintendent of schools has sent you handwritten notes, at least one of them good.

Yes.  These are generalizations, and I could certainly generate examples of when we didn’t live up to these values in the United States in the past.  But these values are, generally, the rules that we have to all follow to make things work in a high trust society:  recognized property rights, independent courts, and faith in our elected officials.  You don’t trespass, because that’s old man Smith’s place.  Yeah, the judge likes to drink a bit too much on Friday, but he sentenced the robbery suspect to 10 years and didn’t charge the shopkeeper who shot him up.  And Sheriff Buford sends your kid a certificate, just for graduating high school.

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Actually, we’re pretty welcoming, as long as you don’t send paratroopers first.

The result is that you get a society where people can work together, voluntarily.  Things like park boards and school boards and town councils and county supervisors are the most effective forms of government, and have the most impact on a typical person’s life.  The Sheriff is more important than people in Washington, because the Sheriff is actually accountable, and has to live with the people he’s protecting.  He also knows when not writing a ticket is the right answer.

However, when societies are built on nepotism, separatism, egos, immorality, or freeloading, that trust disappears.  The Sheriff won’t arrest a murderer because he’s a cousin.  Or of the same faith.  Or of the same race.  Cars are stolen with regularity, because everyone believes that anyone who is wealthy isn’t to be admired and emulated, but hated.  Why?  Because the only way to get ahead is to cheat.  And anyone who has more than you has cheated, right?

High trust societies produce wealth.  Polite children.  People who act honorably.  They have stable governments with an emphasis on rights for common men.  People pay their taxes, and act together.

Low trust societies are characterized by poor social trust.  High theft rates.  Low wealth.  Their governments are often stable, because they’re collective and totalitarian.  At least the election results aren’t in doubt.  How can you doubt an election where the winner gets 98% of the vote?

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Is it ironic that someone who hated capitalism died on Black Friday?

The truth is that you can’t combine a low trust society and a high trust society.  The values of a low trust group in a high trust society will destroy the high trust society after time.  Why?  You can’t win a game of cards when everyone else is cheating.  You can’t have peace when another country has declared war on you.  In a war of values, the lowest common denominator wins.

Our car ate up the miles between Big City and home.  We finally crossed the last little creek and headed up the hill, past the farm that flooded every other spring, and heard the familiar crunch of gravel under our tires as I stopped near the mailbox.  The mailbox was open, and had probably been open since Saturday, but our mail was still there.

We were glad to get home.

Mall pic by Dj1997 [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]

Cognitive Dissonance, Normalcy Bias, and Survival, with Wonder Woman, Bigfoot, Johnny Carson, Stalin, and a Bond Girl.

“So you really think Morgan thinks I have a racial bias? This is so unfair. I would’ve marched on Selma if it was on Long Island.” – Seinfeld

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I’ll have to admit, when I was doing this meme, I forgot where I was going with it.  Which was appropriate. 

This post is the result of a reader request by frequent commenter and occasional photo contributor 173dVietVet, and I’m glad to do it because it keeps me away from plumbing.  I had actually already started my notes for another topic (you’ll see it next Friday and it will be amazing, if I have enough beer before I start writing) when he suggested that I post about the interplay of Cognitive Dissonance, Normalcy Bias, and Survival.

This post sounded like way more fun than re-plumbing the drain line under my sink (this is true).  Despite the protestations of The Mrs. that we need a silly old sink in the kitchen I dug right into the topic, especially since Friday is typically health day and this topic is broad enough to cover both personal health and the broader issues related to disasters and living through crisis that have recently become a theme here.

Maybe . . .  it may have been a way for 173dVietVet to see if I’m not a computer mind sent from the future to influence the United States in 2019 to make more PEZ® workers for our PEZ© mines.  Who can say?  Regardless, 173dVietVet (and the other 10,000 people who will read this), here it is.

What is Cognitive Dissonance?

Cognitive Dissonance is the state of holding two opposing ideas in your mind, or of having beliefs that run counter to your actions.  The best example I ever ran into in real life was when I was at a convenience store and two Spandex®-clad bicyclists came in – helmets still on, complete with wrap-around sunglasses and smelly padded butt shorts.  One of the guys was loudly criticizing every item the other guy picked up.  Trust me, the guy was loud enough that everyone in the store could hear him.  I was NOT eavesdropping like I do with the neighbors on a Saturday night.

  • “No, you can’t drink that, man. Fructose will kill you, after it makes your children sterile.”
  • “Dude – the bleached flour in that is empty calories. It will screw up your metabolism and make the Martians attack.”
  • “Ah, man – that jerky has nitrates. Really bad for you.  Also, no one has ever loved me.”

Then he got up to the counter.

  • “I’ll have this, and . . . a pack of Marlboros®.” He looked at his bicycling buddy.  “Yeah, man, I know.”

That’s Cognitive Dissonance in action.  I was buying Copenhagen® and Cheddar Ruffles™ at the same time, so my ability to criticize was pretty limited.  I’ve since given up the Copenhagen©, but you can rip those Cheddar Ruffles® from my cold, dead, orange fingers.

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If you get tired of Soylent Lays®?  You can just gnaw on a neighbor!  Spoiler:  in the movie, companies were making food from people.  But apparently it was tasty.  Mmmm, tasty people.

Another example?  An attorney that goes to church.  Normally lawyers burst into flame upon entering a Holy Place, but I heard California filed a restraining order against God, and the Ninth Circuit upheld it.  Last I heard, God is has appealed to the Supreme Court®.  Sadly, he might lose, since he doesn’t have any lawyers in Heaven to represent him.

Like anything, Cognitive Dissonance goes from mild (our bicycling smoker in the example above) to extreme (pretending Trump® isn’t president because you don’t like mean old Cheeto™ man).  In the middle is anyone who liked the latest Star Wars™ movies.  Or are they in the middle?  They might be the sickest of all of us.

In doing research about this topic, I found that studies of Cognitive Dissonance had different origins for different peoples.  It turns out that Cognitive Dissonance in European-descended people is driven by the concepts of shame and guilt.  Shame, in this case, is the feeling brought out by violating a group norm.  Mental values based in Shame are built around what other people will think of you.  Guilt is violating an absolute right and wrong.  Everyone on the planet could be dead, and you’d still feel Guilt.

In East Asians, Cognitive Dissonance was only built around Shame.  Guilt didn’t play a part in it.  If everybody on Earth died?  You’d be free at last!  I have no other data on any other ethnicities, so don’t ask.  I’m thinking the researcher did the study in Chinese restaurant in North Dakota.

Some other odd things I discovered about Cognitive Dissonance:

  • Initiations and hazing – people who are subjected to rough rites of initiation actually have increased commitment to the group hazing them. I guess the lesson here is, don’t skimp.  Rent the goat.  And get the extended insurance plan on the goat.  You know why.
  • People highlight the positives of the choice they made … after they made the choice, not before. Rationalization is a way to smooth over Cognitive Dissonance, and also explains why I justify the late night tipsy Amazon.com purchases to The Mrs.  Everyone needs a life size Bigfoot® statue, right?

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The Mrs. took this picture after we bought Bigfoot One.  I had this statue until The Mrs.’ dog ate it.  Then I bought another one, but I keep it inside.  Sadly, this is a true story.  Bigfoot deserves to be free.

Essentially, when your brain is faced with the contradictions that spring from Cognitive Dissonance, it has (as far as I can tell) four choices:

  • Change a belief,
  • Change an action,
  • Pretend our actions don’t make us big fat hypocrites, or
  • Ignore it all and get a cookie.

Orwell even talked about it in his future history novel 1984.  A great example of Cognitive Dissonance in action was the way that supporters minimized Bill Clinton’s horrible behavior in the Lewinski mess.  (Actually it was Clinton’s mess, but this is a family-friendly blog.)  And mainstream Republicans were no better in the whole “invade Iraq” mess, for absolute fairness.  Supporters, like hazed college freshmen pledging Omega, seem to like politicians more when they lie to them.

Go figure.

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If you haven’t seen Animal House®, that makes me die a little inside.  It’s the Star Wars™ of anti-Cognitive Dissonance movies.

Okay, that’s Cognitive Dissonance.  What’s Normalcy Bias?

First, Normalcy.  Really?  Did we really need that word?  I guess I’ll allow it.  Guys, the English language has 171,476 words according to the Oxford Dictionary of the English Language, and your ‘umble ‘ost only knows about 45,000 of them.  Unless your new word involves ways that aliens have sex in clown costumes in a vacuum while in orbit over Mongolia on a Tuesday?  There’s probably already a word for it.

Second, what is Normalcy Bias?  Normalcy Bias is just a belief that things are going to return to “normal” at some unspecified point in the future, often through the actions of some unspecified savior, like Johnny Carson returning from the dead and eating the livers of all of the current late night hosts while they were still alive.  Oh, wait, that was a dream I had the other night.  Never mind.

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The answer is no, not funny at all.

Third, I think that Normalcy Bias is just a subset of Cognitive Dissonance.    Here are some examples:

  • Underestimating the probability of a flood hitting your house. This is not a personal example – I’ve checked FEMA flood maps on every house I’ve ever bought – before I bought them.  I remember talking to a friend who thought I was lying when I told him that.  Right now?  If a flood takes out my house, I’m expecting to see a little old man with an Ark.
  • Underestimating disaster impacts. FEMA is really good at this – in the middle of Hurricane Ike, FEMA was on the radio.  Thankfully, we had a crank-radio and were able to get the vital advice that lists of available FEMA services were . . . on the Internet at FEMA.gov.    Telling people with no power (and no cell service) to go to the Internet to get the latest updates.  Yay, FEMA!  Why don’t you suggest direct brain transfer?
  • The Roman citizens in Great Britain standing on the pier and waving goodbye to the last Legion in Rome as it went off to put down an uprising of those pesky Gauls. The Romans will be back soon, right?  Things will be normal again?  Right?  (Rome, Britain, and Money: Why You Can’t Find Fine China after the Apocalypse)
  • King Arthur’s legend that he’ll return to save England – it’s just one example of the hidden and secret king that will return one day to Make England Great Again. Assuming any English are left when Arthur gets back.
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about Normalcy Bias in his book The Black Swan. He describes the belief that his family had that things would “return to normal” in Lebanon, even after it was ripped apart by civil war between 1975 and 1990.  They talked about how they’d be able to return, and how things would . . . return to normal.

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When Taleb wrote this, this was a picture that was taken in Lebanon – 2006.  I’m not thinking this is a great place for long term real estate growth.  Unless you have quite a large number of Trident® missiles – 3 out of 4 despots recommend Trident© if you chew missiles.

I think that Normalcy Bias is pretty deep seated function of the human brain – I see too many examples, both in my own thinking and in my observations of others to believe that it’s abnormal.

During a crisis, that’s a problem.  The biggest dangers in a crisis are:

  1. Not accepting that the world has changed, maybe forever. People who change their world view soonest . . . win.  An example:  I was driving and saw a car pulled over on the side of the road.  The driver had obviously just wrecked his BMW®.  He was wandering around, dazed.  “My BMW® . . . it’s wrecked!”  He was distraught.  I said to him, “Man, forget about the car – your left arm has been severed!”  He became even more upset.  “My God,” he screamed, looking down at the place his arm should have been, “Where is my Rolex©!”  Okay, that didn’t happen.  But I’m allowed to dream.
  2. Not realizing or believing that changes could happen. This happens before the crisis, and the result is that you’ve never planned.  Not having planned, you’ve got no preparations.  The best cure for this is nearly getting caught up in a disaster.  My daughter, Alia S. Wilder, recently found out that her house was in a zone that could be flooded.    Even more oops?  She had zero preparations.  Being evil, I didn’t give her answers.  I asked questions.  “Oh, so you bought a month’s worth of food.  Good.  How much water to you have?”  Her eyes were really opened to the huge vulnerabilities that she had.  I slept well that night, even though I had to shower to get the evil off of me.
  3. Thinking that other people share your values. They don’t.  I assure you that there is no neighborhood in Modern Mayberry I would be afraid to be in at any time of the day or night.  If you carry that same lack of awareness to, say, Chicago, the results might be less than optimal.  Monday’s post will be about the implications of this logical fallacy.  The sooner you internalize this, the better.
  4. Failing to practice. Just as having the neatest nickel-plated 1911 with laser sights and the chainsaw attachment won’t help you if you don’t practice, if you don’t practice your disaster response from time to time, it won’t help you, either.  You won’t be able to find your preps.  They’ll be in the wrong spot.  Or, worse yet, your child moved them and the mice got into your rice, the parakeet got into your wheat, and your dehydrated food has been mildewed.  That’s a bad day.  But it’s a much better day if none of the steers got into your beer.
  5. Thinking that someone else will save you. They won’t.  This is why I hate the term “first responders.”  It puts the responsibility for a crisis on the wrong person.  If someone is breaking into my house – I am the first responder.  If Pugsley cuts deeply into his thumb while whittling, I am, again, the first responder.  In any real crisis, the “first responders” have probably missed many of the issues I’ve listed above.  During Hurricane Ike, I heard one of the funniest things I’ve ever heard – pleas from the radio announcer to bring food, gasoline, generators, and water to . . . the “first responders.”  The “first responders” weren’t an asset.  They were a liability that couldn’t even save themselves.  I’m not bragging, but the Wilder family was at home, eating steak.    We had enough food for weeks.  Again, The Mrs. and I were the first responders.  Mmm.  Steak.
  6. Not realizing the implications of changes. In apocalypse movies, one typical means of comic relief is the former banker/stockbroker/boss who, in a fit of self-important pomposity, asks, “Do you know who I am?”  Immediately this character (who you’re not supposed to like), gets his ego shot down as either the hero or bad guy shows him that the rules have changed.  One humorous version of this is in the underrated Kevin Costner flick The Postman, when he meets Tom Petty.  The Postman says to Tom Petty, “I know you, you’re famous.”  Petty replies, “I was.    Kinda.”  At the end, Tom Petty asks Costner, “Are you The Postman?”  Costner nods.  Petty says, “I’ve heard of you.  You’re famous.”  It was a brilliant way to turn that trope on its head, and pointed out a lesson we’ll talk about in a minute in item 1 of the list below.  I guess that depends on your reading speed.
  7. Not adapting to the reality of the changes. This is a little different than number six.  A great example is the Kulaks that I wrote about recently.  When Stalin came to power they thought they could negotiate with him since they were the economic engine of the U.S.S.R.  Spoiler alert:  they couldn’t.  Score Stalin: 20,000,000, Kulaks: 0.  A less sinister version of this is when you flip a light switch during a blackout, and a second later feel like an idiot, thankfully Stalin’s ghost doesn’t send you to the Gulag for that.

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It always cracks me up that AntiFa© thinks they won’t be the first people sent to the camps.  Loyalty?  The commies can work with that.  Being disloyal to the country that provides the framework for your material success?  Gulag first.  But you get to choose the top bunk.  Yay!

Every single point I’ve made above can kill you, given the right circumstances.  If I were evil, like an ancient emaciated grizzled she-demon direct from Hell, or Madonna® (I’m sorry, I repeat myself) I’d just leave you here to twist in the wind, stuck in a never ending cycle of Cognitive Dissonance and Normalcy Bias that spirals into a black hole of self-despair that ultimately leaves you as a tweeker midwife sitting in a ripped-up vinyl booth in an Ecuadoran Dairy Queen® with no Blizzard™ machine, delivering Ecuadorian children for leftover chicken tenders.  And there’s no gravy in Ecuador.  I think that’s because the toilets circle the other way.  Maybe.

But I’m not that mean.  Well, I am that mean, but I’m still begging for working for that Nobel® Peace™ Prize©, or maybe a lousy MacArthur Award™, so I’d best pretend to be a loving, caring human being.  Besides, no body?  No crime.  Right?  That’s what my lawyer keeps telling me.  I hope he’s right.

I know what you are asking, “John Wilder, how can I learn to make comedy jokes like you?”  See?  You’re dead in a disaster already!  A disaster is no joking matter, unless it happens to someone else.  But, following are some preventive (the word preventative, while in the dictionary, has that stupid extra “ta” in the middle and I refuse to engage with a single ta – two ta’s only) steps that you can take to, well, live.  And these steps apply to both a disaster and your life.  In the end, your life is a disaster.  I’m not judging, but if you treat your life like a metaphorical disaster, you’ll be healthier and more prepared.

  1. Humility: Know what you don’t know.  As Aesop (LINK) perspicaciously quoted Donald Rumsfeld the other day:  “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.”  People liked to bag on Rumsfeld, mainly because they were jealous of his mad dancing skills and that he bested John Cusack in an arm-wrestling contest once so he could win the chance to date Demi Moore.  This was before she began to resemble beef jerky, so it was worth it at the time.  Regardless, this is a great quote on humility.  Know what you don’t know.  Either learn it, or compensate for it.
  2. Prepare Generally for General Disasters: Most things you can prepare for are the same, or at least rhyme like poetry used to rhyme before cigarette smoking smelly people in black berets with low-testosterone face hair (high testosterone for the females, which looks about the same) ruined it.  Hitler’s ghost won’t re-start World War II, and Abraham Lincoln’s ghost won’t be around to start Civil War II, but human needs don’t change all that much, regardless of what disaster you face.  You have to eat.  You have to have water.  You have to have Internet.  Oh, wait – sorry.  Water is optional now, according to the WHO (The Who, The WHO, Cavemen, Child Labor, and We Won’t Get Fooled Again).  You can quote me on the following:  A multi-tool is a crappy tool.  Unless it’s your only tool.  And it weighs less than your tool kit.  Never expect that preparations will be exact replacements of what you really need.  But as long as you have Internet, it’s all good, right?
  3. Do Things That Take You Out Of Your Comfort Zone: No, this isn’t an excuse to try to convince you into a Multi-Level-Marketing© scheme to strain your friendships by selling a product that ultimately is the object of a 60 Minutes™ investigation (this happened to my ex-wife, for reals).    Take a different road to work.  How well do you know the lay of the land in the ten miles around your house?  How well do you know your neighbors, I mean, reciprocally?  The telescope views don’t count no matter how hot she is.  Imagine you had to do without electricity.  Do without it for a night.  Two nights.  Spend a night in a tent in the back yard.  Go camping.  Eat a burger . . . without fries.  Your routine is your enemy, except for the lifting and healthy bits.  Change it up.
  4. Practice with your tools: Heh, hehe, hehehe, he said tools.  Okay, Beavis, knock it off.  If it’s a pistol.  If it’s a chainsaw.  If it’s a hammer.  Heh, hehe, hehehe, he said hammer.  Practice with it.  80% of your proficiency will come for 20% of your effort, unless you’re me trying to learn guitar, because that’s just hopeless.  Become mediocre now, when there’s time, that will help with number one, up above.  At least then you’ll know what you don’t know.
  5. Play “What if?” mind games: I do this all the time.  Sometimes I end up in crazy stupid places – as in the entire world is gone and leaves just me and the cast of The Breakfast Club and the cast of Who fighting over who gets the last deodorant stick in the world and Sophie Marceau is the only one who can save me.  Okay, that’s not really productive.  But when you think about what could happen, you become mentally prepared if it does happen.

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Sophie is the one on bottom.  James Bond® is the one on top.  I guess I might need to explain that to the folks in California.  I’m just worried that the next movie might have Jeanette Bond, who has never even been to England at all.  Because what’s more British than that?

So, there it is.  I guess I have a sink to fix.  173dVietVet, how did I do?

Also, if you have a pet topic, toss it out, either in the comments or at my email at movingnorth@gmail.com.  I won’t promise that I’ll do it, but your odds are good.  100% as of this writing.  If I don’t do it, it’s not you, it’s that I think I’d suck at it.

How Auto Manufacturing Makes You More Likely to Die in a Crisis, Plus, Ironman is a Mass Murderer.

“The most efficient killing machine ever invented; you’ve got her doing the laundry.” – Terminator, The Sarah Connor Chronicles

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My first job was in a toy vampire manufacturing factory.  I worked as part of a two man team, so I had to make every second Count.

Modern society is based on efficiency.

Efficiency in what?

Efficiency in everything, from the proper number of employees to completely mess up my order at McDonalds© to using the absolute minimum amount of labor and material to make a car.

Let’s stick with cars, because the local McDonalds™ in Modern Mayberry is primarily efficient only at serving me a Sausage McMuffin® without sausage, egg, or cheese.  Yes.  They served me a plain muffin, which I guess is more efficient.  In 2018, Toyota® sold roughly 8,000,000 cars, trucks and station wagons (I refuse to call them SUVs on principle) worldwide.  Overall, 86,000,000 new cars were made and sold in 2018.

I think cars just might finally be catching on as a consumer item.  Maybe they’re not a fad after all.

When you do something 86,000,000 times, though, you start to get good at it, or at least sore.  I brought up Toyota© because they decided to get good at making cars, and were highly innovative in trying to increase quality while at the same time increasing efficiency – they made better cars with less labor, less rework, less effort.  While I can make the case that Detroit finally caught up with Toyota™ by the early 2000’s as far as quality goes, Toyota® was leading the pack for decades – that’s why they’re the number one auto manufacturer in the world today.

One particular innovation that Toyota® came up with was “just-in-time” manufacturing, which is also known as “Lean Manufacturing.”  The concept is simple:  I make a car with parts that just showed up – nobody has to go get them, they just show up right when I need them.  The ideal would be the supplier delivers the part to the production line at the moment it’s required.  The windshield wiper salesman puts two in the bin as the next Corolla™ arrives at the windshield wiper installation station.  There isn’t a bucket of thousands of wipers behind the worker, just the few he or she needs right then.  Hence?  Just-in-time.

Just-in-time sounds really nice.  The things you need just show up, right when you need them, as if teddy-bear angels with lace wings made them materialize from the aether as they used to when Victoria was Queen.  In practice, you need more than two windshield wipers at the Corolla© assembly station, but you might only need enough for an hour.  Or two hours.  That de-clutters the line, and makes the work actually go faster.  Implementation of this system is one reason Toyota™ went from a mass producer of cheap cars to a mass producer of high quality cars.

Why didn’t they invent and do this just-in-time production in 1880?  Transport speed.  Slow transport requires stockpiles and large shipment.  Also required is production coordination.  Assembly lines break from time to time – you have to make sure that the windshield wipers don’t stack up like chocolates on an assembly line.  There has to be sufficient communication, and the Internet helps make it easy.

Now?  I can order prescription glasses online and have them shipped to my house directly from the manufacturer in China in less than a week.

Worth watching again even if you’ve seen it before.

The rest of the world has, in the last thirty years, done everything they could to adopt this system, which is now called “Lean Manufacturing.”  Accountants love it, because it reduces inventory, and turns that inventory into cash as soon as possible.  An example:  the average grocery story turns over its entire inventory nearly 14 times per year, which means lots of items hit the shelf and disappear.  Some grocery stores even have the vendor stock the shelf, eliminating costs there as well, as they attempt to get the customer to do the job of a checker.

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But the at least the cashier was dead sexy.

The result of this effort is a one-time boost in profits as inventory is reduced.  There is also the ongoing benefit that the money that paid for the inventory (that no longer exists) can be used for some other business purpose like bonuses, bacon-wrapped shrimp, corporate jets or Harvey Weinstein’s sexual harassment lawsuit settlements.

But since there’s less inventory, you need fewer warehouses.  And fewer warehouse workers.  Yay!  More money for bacon-wrapped shrimp!  You can see how this was a dominant concept in the late 1990’s when most corporate jobs required that you sign over your soul to Satan®, or Al Pacino if Satan™ had taken the corporate jet with Weinstein that day.

If I were to create a personal analogy, Lean Manufacturing is similar to the idea that when you buy gasoline you buy just enough for this trip, and this trip only.  No more wasteful storage of gasoline inventory.  And why keep more than a single meal on hand in the house?  While we’re at it, let’s also reduce that inventory of money we keep in the bank.  I bet we could make sure our lives are structured around a system that I think I’ll invent a snazzy name for:  Paycheck-to-Paycheck™.

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If you think no one cares if you’re alive, skip a month’s worth of bills.

So, all sarcasm aside, the paycheck example starts to illustrate the problems with Lean Manufacturing.  Inventory is a bad word in a manufacturing plant, and no manufacturing plant in the world would keep spare capacity that it doesn’t use regularly just sitting there.  Soon enough, a bright young soulless MBA from the head office will either start production on the spare capacity, sell the manufacturing equipment, or take a jet trip to a conference where there is a platter of free bacon-wrapped shrimp.

What has been profitable business advice is, as you can see, horrible personal advice.  Life isn’t about efficiency.  Life is about . . . life.  Being inefficient actually has some huge advantages.

People who regularly prepare for disasters (“preppers”) have popularized the phrase “Two is one, and one is none.”  I looked for the origin of the phrase, and I believe it is old enough that it probably originated in a Roman Legion stationed in Carthage, when a grizzled Centurion stuck a cigar in his mouth and was dressing down a new recruit for having an insufficiently shiny gladius.  And don’t tell me that it was another 1,500 years until tobacco was introduced to Europe – an outfit with a good supply guy can find anything.

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Okay, you don’t need two of everything.  A friend of mine has two ex-wives.

The philosophy of prepping is the exact opposite of Lean Manufacturing.  It says that we are stupid – we don’t know what’s going to happen so having extra supplies is crucial.  Stuff gets broken.  Stuff gets lost – just this week somebody found a batch of Revolutionary-era bayonets in a pit at Valley Forge.  You can bet there was a corporal that got his butt chewed over those by George Washington.  But I’m betting that the Continental Army had some extras.  Heck, it’s certain that even the Egyptians knew to store the extra grain in good years 6,000 years ago because:

  • Spare capacity is freedom,
  • Spare capacity is resilience,
  • Spare capacity gives you time and space when both are precious, and
  • Scarcity is the enemy, not inefficiency.

Recently, there have been a series of movies about obscure comic book heroes from the 1970’s.  You might have heard of them – The Avengers™.  In one of them, The Avengers:  Quest for Infinity Cash®, the villain (a very large Smurf™ named Thanos©) had been hungry as a child and decided nobody should ever be hungry again.  Thanos® then gathered a bunch of magic rocks which allowed him to make a super glove so he could make a wish.

I’m not making this up.  People spent $2.048 BILLION dollars to see that story.

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See?  Big Smurf® and magic rocks.  Told you I wasn’t making it up.

Anyway, Thanos®’ wish was that half of the people in the Universe disappear.  That’s just what happened.  Half the people turned to ash.  It really wasn’t that sad, at least for me, because it’s a comic book and Superman and Batman have each died something like fifty times, so death in a comic book movie is about as permanent as a Hollywood marriage.  The movie ends with lots of people, including Spiderman®, dissolving into ash.

I took The Boy and Pugsley to go see the sequel, The Avengers:  Endgaming for Even More of Infinity Cash©.  Whether or not the people who turned into ash were going to come back was spoiled before the movie started – one of the trailers was for the new Spiderman® movie.  Endgaming© starts five years after half the people in the Universe turned into ash.

After watching the movie I’m thinking that, like every member of Congress, the screenwriters had no training in economics.  Okay, a big Smurf© snaps his fingers and everyone disappears and I’m concerned they didn’t get their economics right.  Yeah, I’m an economics nerd.

What did they miss?  Well, after all the people disappeared the economy would have cratered.  We would have gone from producing 86,000,000 cars to producing . . . zero.  The economy would stop completely.  Grain would rot in the fields because half the people who ate Twinkies® were ash.  In 2009 when the Gross Domestic Product dropped by 2.5% and the economy nearly locked up.  If half the people disappeared, the economy would drop by 70%.

Anarchy.

But in The Avengers:  Endgaming for Even More of Infinity Cash©, everybody who was turned into ash returns after one of the Avengers® (Tony Stark™) snaps his fingers.  Take that, Thanos©!

Except by doing that, Tony Stark© just sentenced most of them to death when they showed back up.  Why?  In five years, the economy on Earth had contracted to serve not 7 billion, but 3.5 billion.  When an extra 3.5 billion people show back up?  Our just in time world only has food for 3.5 billion.  We only planted enough corn for 3.5 billion.

Massive famine and starvation.

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Oops.

Thanks, Ironman©.  Instead of a nice, peaceful death you’ve condemned some large fraction of beings on every planet to a horrible slow death of starvation, misery, and violence, mainly thanks to the lack of resilience in our planetary production systems.  I guess that I should stop expecting economic accuracy in a movie that features a talking raccoon.

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Only be the last guy to the supermarket during a disaster if you want to take amusing pictures.

But I am concerned – our economy is based on a global experiment in efficiency that frees up capital for bacon-wrapped shrimp, at the cost of making our lives less secure.  What could go wrong?

Sweet dreams!