Your Asset is Somebody Else’s Debt. Oh, and Easter Island. And PEZ.

“Easter Island was a practical joke that got out of hand.” – 3rd Rock from the Sun

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And now you know what those statues are for!  Found on Twitter – I have no idea who to attribute this to.

Many of the things that you think of as assets are, to someone else, debts:

  • Your salary is a debt that your employer owes you – you’re a liability on their books.
  • Payments like Social Security or Medicare or any other government payment – is a debt that’s funded by taxpayers.
  • Your bank deposits are a liability on the books of the bank – technically you gave them a loan that they would have to pay back at some point.

This goes on and on, but I think this gives a flavor of the concept that debts are double-sided.  Your debt is someone else’s asset, and vice versa.  I’ve heard people (especially after a few beers) slur at the ceiling that the debt the economy is facing is, somehow, easily a solvable problem.  “Jus’ eliminate the debt!”  This is often followed by, “gonna be right back – gotta get rid of some of this beer.”

Well, if the bank did that, every one of my checks would bounce, which tends to irritate me, since by eliminating all of their debt, they eliminate all of my deposits.  Yikes!

And if the government just said “debt’s gone – we forgive ourselves,” everyone who owned government bonds would be broke.

It’s interesting that this concept (asset requires a debt) only applies to financial instruments.  If I own a car, or a really cool PEZ® dispenser and have NO loan against it, well, that asset is just an asset.  It’s not someone else’s liability.  This is rather crucial because the average dollar bill that is available in the United States is borrowed into existence.  Take one of them out – look at it.  It’s called a Federal Reserve Note.  You’re actually walking around with a bit of somebody else’s debt in your pocket.

This wasn’t always the case.  In fact, as recently as 1963, silver certificates were issued.  These were just called . . . dollars.  And they implied that you were still the holder of a debt, but the debt was payable in silver.  Which is way better than a current dollar, which is payable in . . . another dollar.

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Look, Ma, no Fed!

Again, if I own an asset, there’s just no debt that goes against it.  Keep that in mind . . . .

Okay, how much debt is out there?  Well, I was reading John Maudlin’s post (LINK) and he had a number.  It was a LOT.  Like $250,000,000,000,000.  That’s $250 trillion dollars.  And to think, some people don’t make that much in a year!

So who owes this debt?

Well, corporations owe a huge chunk.  And why not?  Governments around the world have been force-feeding them money since 2008.  Corporations, per Maudlin, own 41% of the increase.  But the big owner?  Governments.  You can fiddle around with a maps and see how doomed your country is by going here (LINK).

As a note, the United States has a combined total of over $47 trillion in combined government, corporate, and household debt.  If we didn’t eat or go to the movies or do anything else, we could pay it off in 2.5 years . . . .

But what happens when the debtor fails?

  • If the government fails? No Social Security.  No free PEZ® monthly.  No food stamps.
  • If the company fails? No salary.
  • If the bank fails? All of your money above $250,000 in a particular bank vaporizes.  There are exceptions, but you can sort that out for yourself.

How likely is any of that to happen?

Governments fail all the time – and their currencies, historically, fail even more especially when we’ve reached the point where most currencies are backed by nothing.  A silver certificate promised a certain amount of silver.  Our current world currencies just promise that they’re worth a dollar, or a euro, or a ruble, or a yen – they have no intrinsic value.  So, yeah.  This really happens.  And what’s one way to get out of debt, if you’re a government?  Print lots of money.  Oh, and your money isn’t worth so much after they pull that little trick.  Again.

Companies can’t print money, or at least not for very long before they get Enron®-marched off to jail.  But companies fail or disappear at a pretty significant rate.  The average lifespan of a company, big or small?  10 years – then they get sold off or fail.  Some, of course, last longer, like Sears®.  Oh . . . nevermind.

Banks rarely fail so that your assets disappear, at least they haven’t since the Roosevelt presidency.  For that to happen would call into question the entire financial system – so governments will print money by the bucket load so banks don’t fail.  Make cars?  You can fail.  Make burgers?  You can fail.  Loan money at interest?  Your doors will never close – worst case some other bank will be enticed to take you over.

One thing, as Maudlin mentions, is government hasn’t ever taxed actual wealth like your pile of silver or your vintage collection of Sarah Michelle Gellar photographs.  Maudlin’s pretty convinced that the next debt crisis will be so big and difficult that governments will look at all the medium-size piles of wealth around the country, and start just plundering that like a pirate on a vacation.  They’ll never get the big guys – those folks will move their money to places that even the IRS and God won’t be able to find.  Like Easter Island.  Or, (shudder) Cleveland.

REMEMBER, JOHN WILDER IS NOT A FINANCIAL PLANNER.  I do hold positions in US Currency, and will probably get of some dollars in the next few days to establish positions in PEZ™, maybe a nice bottle of wine, or a steak.

Hawaii note mentioned in comments:

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Final Post in the Great 2018 Mountain Trip, Where We Drive Right Through A Forest Fire

This is Part IV of a IV part series.  Part I, The Phantom RV is here (Booze, Aquifers, and the Great 2018 Mountain Trip (Part I)).  Part II, The RV: Reloaded, is here (Fat Alec Baldwin, Sketchy Stores, and Car Miracles: The Great 2018 Mountain Trip, Part II).  Part III, RV the 13th Part 3-D is here (Over The Mountain, Stevie Wonder and Clark Griswold: The Great 2018 Mountain Trip (Part III))

“What are the most immediate threats to the world environment right now?”

“Litter?”

“Litter, yeah.”

“Forest fires?”

“Bugs?”

“Bugs, totally.  Yeah. I hate bugs.”

“Yeah.” – Buffy, The Vampire Slayer (Movie)

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Yo, Schultz, you and I totally climbed that mountain.  You’d better comment or the Internet might think I’m crazy.  Again.

We woke up at the campsite the next morning.  Due to the extraordinarily dry conditions at the campsite, there was a complete fire ban in effect.  How complete?  Smoking outside was prohibited.  Zero flames were allowed outside, unless they were in a propane grill, which has the benefit of not producing sparks unless you actually set the steaks on fire and then ignore it for 20 minutes.

This was okay, since our camper had a propane stove built into it, and I made the assumption that we had propane. Thankfully, we did, since the nearest place to get propane was 45 miles away.  And cooking was okay – we roughed it and cooked on the stove.  Chili, butter-cooked pork chops (with curry seasoning), etcetera.  We ate well.  But we had planned all of these meals and had the food, condiments, and spices to make the meals tasty, and the enough wine to make the taste of the food irrelevant.

Our first day was simple decompression – we’d been travelling all the previous day, and enjoyed the quiet of the phone outage and Internet shadow.  Okay, it wasn’t entirely Internet-free.  You could attempt to download a web page (say, The Drudge Report™) and if you had five minutes, you just might get it, although with no images.  The camp owner explained that, due to the fire they hadn’t even had land line phone a few days ago.  “You should charge extra for that,” I joked.  He didn’t seem to think that was as funny as I did, having had no phone at all for several days.

During our vacation, we only took two trips out of the phone-free shadow.  On both of those trips I spent the majority of my megabytes attempting to determine if the mountain pass we needed to cross for the shortest trip was open.  It rained on Thursday, and that was enough – the mountain pass we needed to have open, was going to be open on Saturday, just in time for when we’d planned on leaving.

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The RV camp owner came by and chatted with us for about 10 minutes.  Then he did a double-take.  He saw that The Boy was sitting in our ludicrously large lawn chair and his brain just didn’t process it for 10 minutes.  Yes.  It’s just as pictured, but ours is blue and doesn’t include a sassy brunette.  I don’t get anything but amusement if you buy one.  It’s not horribly comfortable, but it’s huge. 

This was our second significant camping trip with our RV.  We’d taken it one other time, but that was just a short, local trip.  But The Mrs. made an observation:

“You know, all of the people that we meet when camping like this, well, they seem very nice.”

John Wilder:  “Well, let’s look at it.  These people all like planning for the trip – they purchase stuff ahead of time so they don’t end up without necessities.  They saved up enough money for these,” I gestured at the huge trailers that were in all cases bigger than a college dorm suite, “and the huge pickup trucks that it takes to pull one of these.  And if you look at the toys they bring,” about every other campsite had a spare Jeep® or four-wheeled off road vehicle, “I imagine most of those are paid for as well.”

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A typical campsite. They all come with rainbows.

“These people have a future orientation – they plan ahead.  They save their money.  They think through the possible outcomes before making a decision.  They’re like us.”

The Mrs.:  “You’re just writing your blog out loud, aren’t you.”

John Wilder:  “Yup.”

I took the family on several trips that didn’t take us out of the Internet’s shadow.  We went to the top of a mountain pass, and to an alpine reservoir that sits at over 10,000 feet in elevation (47 kilometers for our World Cup® participants).  Even the fish have oxygen tanks at this atmosphere.  On one expedition (more than a decade ago) we ended up camping at around 13,000 feet in altitude.  There were some winged insects up there, but the air was too thin for them to fly in.  Ha!  They should rename those things “crawls” at that altitude, not flies.

On one of these trips we crossed a railroad that was built in 1880 with more grit and determination than I think exists in the entire state of Massachusetts now.  Up at this elevation sits Crater Lake (not an official name, but the name the locals called it).  I was told, when I was a wee Wilder, that this particular lake, despite being only thirty yards across, was at least 1,000 feet deep.  In fact, I was told it was a volcanic pipe, and no one knew just how deep it was.

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Crater Lake, not much of a lake, but maybe more water than the entire Mississippi in this one hole?  No.  Not even close to that much water.  But a good story.  Photo by The Boy.

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This rainbow was really weird – I’ve never seen one like this before – it was just painted on a passing cloud, and no rain or anything.  Maybe this Rainbow had something to do with the Man on the Silver Mountain?  Photo by The Boy.

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Looks like we’re not the only objects that were stuck there, but as Sigmund Freud said, sometimes a train is just a train?

So, the trains are a bit of a mystery.  There were miles and miles of train cars sitting up on the rails.  Miles.  Propane cars.  Petroleum cars.  Fertilizer cars.  Grain cars.  PEZ® transports.  But, as far as I can tell from both railroad maps and from scrolling through Google Maps® screen by screen, this railway is a dead end – there’s no way out.  And there’s no way that the small local communities used the stuff on these cars or could fill up more than a fraction of them.  So, someone took nearly a thousand rail cars and parked them on this dead end on purpose. That’s upwards of $25,000,000 American dollars, enough to buy a small one bedroom condominium in a bad neighborhood in Berlin.  It’s a lot of money to leave sitting on the rails.

The one time that I’d seen this sort of behavior previously was in the depths of the 2009 recession – in that recession there were several segments of trade that stopped cold – and the rail cars stopped as well as the economy began shutting down due to credit risks.  Some commodities were for sale at prices not seen since – heck, oil was for sale at less than $30 a barrel.  Since then, whenever I see a line of rail cars, I start to get suspicious . . . has part of the economy shut down, or has the rail company just found a good place to store junky old railcars?

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Looks like a BBQ?

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This particular fire was caused by a drought and an idiot.  It appears that a drought isn’t sufficient, you need an idiot illegal alien to add to the mix.  This particular idiot is shown below.  Don’t worry, when he gets home to Denmark I’m pretty sure that it is less flammable than here.  I hear that Danes are made of asbestos.

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This man owes me six hours of my life.  Oh, and about 100,000 acres of forest.  Plus a few hundred homes.  He’s got a lot to answer for.  Let’s start with my six hours.  It’s small, right?  I should be due about $300,000,000 for my pain and suffering.

It was finally time to open the mountain pass – it had been advertised in the news that the mountain would open at 2pm, so we were ready to go at 1:15pm.  We waited patiently, and finally took our spot, about 10th in line.  Given that we were underpowered up a mountain pass, we finished in about 200th place.  I’m okay with that.

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Was this fire caused by Global Warming®?  Although some folks blame everything from Elvis dying to running out of wine on a Friday night to global warming, I’m thinking there’s a group of folks that just like complaining.  Here’s a graph that shows the 1930’s were much worse than today when we discuss temperature.  I blame Stalin.

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This picture was taken by The Mrs., and shows the last time we will see the mountains, until the next time we see the mountains.

As we drove the hundreds and hundreds of miles on this trip, what struck me was how empty it was.  Oh, sure, every 90 to 120 miles you could count on a place that you could get gas and some food, but there are entire sections of the road that you could lie down in the middle of and not be in danger for over ten minutes – these sections of road might see six cars an hour.  I’m not recommending you do this, but, you know, you could.

But if you live in San Francisco, or New York, or . . . well, any of those large metropolitan monstrosities, there’s land out here where you can grow and live free.  Unless you like living in an urban hellhole that stretches for miles and offers absolutely no zombie protection.  Because if that’s you, well, enjoy!

We got home.  3am.  All exhausted.

And we had a good trip, and I’m sure we’re closer as a family.  And now we can cook over charcoal again, because we don’t have illegal aliens to mess that up for us.  I’d make another crack about the Danish, but, you know, I’m 30% or so one of them.  I guess we just can’t have nice things.

Okay, so those are the travelogues for the year.  Back to the usual stuff.  See you Wednesday!

Over The Mountain, Stevie Wonder and Clark Griswold: The Great 2018 Mountain Trip (Part III)

This is Part III of a IV part series.  Part I, The Phantom RV is here (Booze, Aquifers, and the Great 2018 Mountain Trip (Part I)).  Part II, The RV: Reloaded, is here (Fat Alec Baldwin, Sketchy Stores, and Car Miracles: The Great 2018 Mountain Trip, Part II).

“I don’t know much about wine, but I know you gotta keep it hot.” – Anchorman 2

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In this photo by The Mrs., you can see the smoke from a 60,000 acre fire caught at sundown – the yellow “cloud” is really smoke.  This stupid fire caused us to have to detour around it, since our tires aren’t made of asbestos due to the silly concerns of people with lungs.  Of course, that detour added three hours to our trip . . . but we would make the trip NO MATTER WHAT.

As I said, we made it to the mountains.  We began to ascend the only mountain pass we’d have to take to get into the high mountain valley that was our destination.  The pass twisted and turned, with the speed limit being 25MPH (140km/hr) for most of the ascent.  We had decided to wait to have dinner on the other side of the mountain.

This proved to be a mistake.

We finally made it over the mountain, but it was 10:45pm or so.  We stopped to get some gas cans (the nearest gas station to where we’d be staying was 30 miles away) at Wal-Mart®.  We then went off to IHOP© to get dinner.  IHOP™s are open late, right?

Nope.  They closed at 11pm in this town.  The only thing we could find open was a drive-through window at Wendy’s®.  And if you’ve never driven an SUV with an RV through a drive-through window lane?  Don’t.  After ordering, I found that the turning radius was too tight for the Wildermobile® Mark III and the RV.  The fender for the driver’s side wheel on the RV started (loudly) scraping against the retaining wall.

I backed up.  A bit.  Now the front tire of the Wildermobile® Mark III was headed straight up a curb, which appeared to be the only way to avoid having the wheel on the trailer ripped off.  Stuck on the front.  Stuck on the back.  At least the engine was running.

Well, the Wildermobile® Mark III is a four-wheel drive.  Heck with it.  I gunned the engine and we jumped the curb and then I cut the wheel sharply to the left.

We thudded back to the concrete.

I ended up pulling the trailer out without damaging it, but the driver’s side window on the Wildermobile® Mark III was about 12 feet from the drive-up window.  Breaking (I’m sure) every policy in the Wendy’s® manual, I just walked out and stood at the drive-up window while they rang up my purchase and brought me my food.

After 14 hours on the road, The Mrs. was not pleased.  Getting food was important, but The Mrs. also had to go to the bathroom.

But it gets worse.

I stopped to get gas after we got our food.  The convenience store I picked?  The pumps were open, but the store was locked.  At 11pm.

Now The Mrs. was fuming, since she STILL had to go to the bathroom.

We finally pulled into the Valero® station, and their bathroom was open.  The Mrs. went first.  As the Men’s Room was being cleaned, I told The Boy and Pugsley that it was acceptable to use the Women’s room.  Pugsley danced right on in, but The Boy took some arm twisting to convince.  It just wasn’t right that he’d use the Women’s room.

But The Boy finally did.

And the nice lady cleaning the bathroom noted that had we just been a few minutes later, we would have found both of the bathrooms irrevocably locked for the night.  “Those young kids, they cause so much trouble, no?  Doing so many things they should not be doing.”

Sounds like they need to put up signs here, too.  There’s nothing a Sharpie® can’t solve . . .

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Okay, The Boy just made this one up. But I can imagine an actual sign not far from this one, especially if the asbestos in town was especially tasty.

The Mrs. was still unhappy – so unhappy that the Wendy’s™ Single© and fries I’d purchased for The Mrs. to consume sat unconsumed between us.  Probably not a bad thing, since the French fries that came with my burger already tasted like they had been made out grease and cardboard – soggy and not at all flavorful.  I then took a long drink on my Wendy’s® Strawberry Lemonade™.  It was . . . hot.

But the top of the drink was . . . cold?  Huh?

I reached down to the cupholder on the Wildermobile® Mark III and touched it.  It was hot.  Very hot.  14 hours of full power driving had apparently turned the cupholder into a cupheater.  Not something that we’ve seen either before or since.  Perhaps it pulled its energy from The Mrs. white hot rage?

Yes, The Mrs. was mad.  And, it was at me.

A 15 hour trip is a long time, and you throw on top of it the scare with the car starting, the irritation of both bathroom and food, and, The Mrs. had a point, namely, that when I’m pursuing a goal, I get singleminded.  Like Captain Ahab chasing his white whale, or Clark Griswold attempting to put up 100,000 imported Italian twinkle-lights, I tend to get focused on a destination or goal to the exclusion of worrying about those around me.

After consulting with The Mrs., she indicated that this video best represents what it’s like vacationing with me.

We hit our final leg of the journey.  I could sense The Mrs. was still fuming, at least as hot as my Wendy’s© Strawberry Lemonade™.

I tuned the radio station to one of the three FM radio stations you could get.  Some 1960’s-1970’s hits station came on.  Eventually, a Stevie Wonder® song came on.

“Did you know that Stevie Wonder® played the drums?”

I did know that Stevie Wonder® was blind, but had no idea that he played the drums.

For the next twenty minutes or so, The Mrs. dazzled me with a rather encyclopedic listing of detail about Stevie Wonder®.  How he went blind.  What instruments he played.  His first hits.  His awards.

It turns out that The Mrs. had done some recent research on Stevie Wonder® to use as an example for some work that The Mrs. was doing in her undercover crime fighting day job as CEO of Wayne Industries.  The stories The Mrs. had were fascinating.  We then listened to a radio show that berated people without accents for not understanding people with accents.  I am not making this up, and apparently this wasn’t a one-time, but a weekly radio show (according to the end credits, done only by female feminists) where they berated people without accents for not understanding people with accents.  That’s hard-core nagging, and nearly enough to make me rethink my support for the First Amendment (the freedom of speech part).  Thankfully, I couldn’t really understand what the feminists were saying.

We finally made it to the campsite at about 1AM.

By the time that we had finished unpacking the trailer and setting up for the night, the stars were out over our campsite.  We shared a beer at 2AM after the trip.  “You’re lucky,” The Mrs. said, “that Stevie Wonder® saved you.  You know that you get a little too Captain Ahab.  A little too obsessive . . .”

John Wilder:  “Clark Griswold, right.”

“Yeah, a little too Clark Griswold on these trips.”

And The Mrs. is right.  The obsessiveness that keeps me focused on goals and objectives and that allows me to be successful in my day job (polishing lobster shells) sometimes takes its toll even on vacation.

Now time for some hot Wendy’s® Strawberry Lemonade . . . too bad it takes 15 hours to make.

Finally:  Forest Fire and Phones/Internet, Camping and Time Preference, Citizen Journalists

Fat Alec Baldwin, Sketchy Stores, and Car Miracles: The Great 2018 Mountain Trip, Part II

This is Part II of a series.  Part I, The Phantom RV, is located here (Booze, Aquifers, and the Great 2018 Mountain Trip (Part I)).

“Where we’re going, we won’t need eyes . . .” – Event Horizon

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More on this sign below.  Sigh.

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The following was overheard between two moms at a kid’s soccer game in Dallas, Texas:  “I wish I was as rich as the Smith family – they have enough money that they don’t have to drive a new car.”

Ohhh, vanity . . . what is thy sticker price?

Our SUV is rated to pull our camper, plus another 2000 pounds.  Our camper is, in the world of RVs, very small, much like Alec Baldwin before he discovered carbohydrates.  However, our SUV will not ever be pulled over for speeding on the open highway when pulling our camper, unless we’re going downhill, with the wind at our back, and with one of Elon Musk’s rockets strapped to the luggage carrier.  With all that?  We might hit 67 miles per hour.  Where the speed limit was 65 miles per hour, we managed only to get up to 60 or so, and that was with the gas pedal firmly jammed to the floorboard.  Really.  And I kept said gas pedal floored for probably 98% of our trip.

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Alec Baldwin after carbohydrates.

The engine got hot, burning through the equivalent of the petroleum use of Cuba for a year in 15 hours.  The outside temperature was also hot, which might explain how we got stuck at the Shadiest Convenience Store in the Central United States*.  (*Shadiest that I’ve been to outside of a big city.)

How shady was it?

The front door had a sign on it indicating that it was mandatory to remove sunglasses, hats, and hoodies prior to entry, so the security camera could get a good look at you.  There was a sign on the bathroom door that amused The Boy so much he took a picture of it:

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Yes, apparently they had this problem enough that they had to put a sign on the door to tell people to NOT MINDLESSLY DAMAGE MERCHANDISE while waiting in line.  I’m sure the people who mindlessly damage merchandise seem like the group who would read a sign and say, “Oh, I was going to take a knife to these water bottles because I’m bored and have no self-control, but I won’t now because someone took the time to write out a note to me with a Sharpie®.”

The Boy also took this picture of the sign inside the bathroom:

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Likewise, if the bathroom is out of toilet paper or Windex® or paper towels, I’ve never been tempted to jump up and go and restock a convenience store bathroom or clean the mirror.  I wonder if that’s a problem they run into all the time, rogue cleaners?  Maybe they have to pay them if they’re technically doing work for the store?  Do they get healthcare benefits?

Hopefully the descriptions of the signs show how sketchy the place we were at is – enough random theft and vandalism that Sharpies®, copier paper, and probably the occasional police call are required.  Not a good neighborhood, but at least better than a “clerk in an iron cage” convenience store.

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Here is where the Clerk of Monte Cristo stays, forever condemned to hide shamefully within an iron mask a glass booth.

After the usual filling up and going to the bathroom, we make our way back to the Wildermobile™ Mark III, and get ready to go.

I turn the ignition key.

Nothing.  Not even a click.

I turn it again.  Nothing.

Crap.  This is literally the worst place possible to be stuck on our trip.  I mean, Detroit would be worse, but I would never actually go there, since I bet that’s where Gollum, Sauron, and the Nazgûl come from, and I bet that you can’t even get a decent Über there.

I thought back to the last place we got gas.  I had (for the first time in over a decade) double-started the car, i.e., I had tried to start the car after it was already going.  Had that damaged the starter with that horrible grinding sound?

I got under the car, and immediately was confronted by the skid plate.  A skid plate is, essentially, armor for the engine.  It protects the engine from collisions with rocks (think boulders) on rough mountainous roads or stacks of blenders if you (for whatever reason) wanted to run over a bunch of blenders at high speed.  Not that I’ve ever done run over stacks of blenders at 70 miles per hour, but if I wanted to do it, I could.

Thankfully, I was prepared – we had a socket set in the back of the Wildermobile® Mark III and I popped off the skid plate.

It was at this moment I wondered if we had done the right thing in bringing a car that had already traveled 151,000 miles in its 15 year life on a difficult journey that would require the engine to operate at maximum output for over a thousand miles and for over 30 hours.  Well, second guessing that decision now was kinda out of the question.

The one thing I didn’t do was panic.  Life generally works out for me much better than it should and I assume that, generally, the situation will resolve itself in my favor more times than not.  I shimmied underneath the car and looked for the starter.  The Boy pulled the Chilton’s® Manual™ out of the back of the Wildermobile© which had a picture showing the location of the starter.  I found it, I think.  It might have been the car’s nipple, if the car’s nipple was wired and tied into the flywheel.  I wiggled the wires.

I climbed out from under the car and tried to start it again.

Nope.

I sent The Mrs. in to get some more coolant for the radiator – while it wouldn’t help, it gave her something to do and was a little better than sacrificing a chicken to a voodoo god to get the Wildermobile® Mark III going again.  Our coolant wasn’t too low, but, after 10 hours, the engine was HOT.  I put in some coolant.  I crawled back under the car – since, by experience, I knew that I could get a live wire to the starter and manually start it (if necessary).  It would be sort of embarrassing to have to crawl under the engine hot wire my car, but after a few years I’m sure I’d get tired of doing that and get it fixed.

By this time, I looked like a mess.  I was covered with axle grease (red) and undercarriage petroleum products (oil, power steering fluid, and some fluid produced by the Wildermobile™ Mark III in order to attract other cars to mate with).  Essentially, I looked like Sam Neill after he left Jurassic Park® and went to the Event Horizon™.

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Me before greasing the trailer axles and getting red grease on my shirt and then crawling under the car.

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Me after greasing the axles and crawling under the car.  Oh, and traveling to a hellish other dimension on a doomed and haunted spaceship.

I once again got back into the car, and used my greasy hands to turn the key.

The motor purred like a catlady’s flock of husband replacements.  Success!

As I started the engine, The Mrs. was talking to a nice lady from the town who had been asking her if we needed help, no doubt clued in by the socket wrenches and open Wildermobile® Mark III hood.

“No, I said, we just got help, and it was you!  What’s your name?”

“Angelina,” she responded.

John Wilder:  “Well you must be our guardian angel, Angelina!  Thank you so much!  You’re our lucky charm!”

Angelina and I hugged.  Odd, but stuff like that happens on the road.

The Wilder family piled back into the car.  We pulled out of the Sketchiest Convenience Store in the Central United States that features irrational merchandise destroyers, vigilante bathroom restockers, and guardian angels walking amongst us.

Pugsley frowned.  “So what, exactly, would we have done if the car hadn’t started?”  I could hear the concern in his voice.

“Well,” I responded, “what we wouldn’t have done is panic.  Panic is the best way to make a bad situation a catastrophe, sort of like Alec Baldwin’s career after he discovered nachos and high fructose corn syrup.”

I then sketched out a series of things we would have done to get the car fixed, and what we would have done until it was fixed.  Pugsley seemed satisfied.

I then told The Boy and Pugsley of the car that didn’t like vanilla ice cream, which is a story I read a long time ago.  The car owner would go to the store to get ice cream.  And when he got vanilla, the car wouldn’t start.  When he got chocolate, the car would start.  He wrote to the car company (I think it was General Motors).

Getting such an odd letter, they actually sent an engineer out to see what the problem was.  The engineer went with the man to get vanilla ice cream.  Sure enough, the car wouldn’t start for a while.

They went back to the owner’s home.  Then they drove back to the store and bought chocolate ice cream.  Sure enough, the car started.  Turns out the vanilla ice cream was in the front of the frozen food section, being more popular.  The chocolate ice cream was in the back of the frozen food section, all the way to the back of the store.  The extra time walking to the chocolate gave the car enough time to cool down (there was a heat-related fault in the car) so that the car would start.

We drove onward.  Finally, we made it to the mountains.  It was dark.  We had been in the car for 12 hours.  Still three more to go . . . if only I were a Dallas housewife, I would have had a new car that immediately started at the Shadiest Convenience Store in the Central United States.  Then where, dear Internet, would you be without this story?

You’d be as sad as Alec Baldwin’s agent when Alec tells him those four fateful words . . . “Me want ice cream.”

Next (in the series):  The Mountains, An IHOP™ Tease and a Short Turn Radius, More Convenience Store Shenanigans, A Drink Heater, Stevie Wonder® saves Captain Ahab/Clark Griswold

Booze, Aquifers, and the Great 2018 Mountain Trip (Part I)

“She left here to find a fellow named Dee Boot in Ogallala.  She never even looked at her baby.” – Lonesome Dove

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Our trailer.  Paint job by The Mrs. – it was either this or The Mystery Machine from Scooby Doo.  I hope that Paramount® doesn’t sue us . . .

Following are the results of my essential research related to this blog, as we went on a cross country field data gathering trip.  Or, if the IRS isn’t reading this, a vacation.  The whole “essential research” sounds way more tax deductible than “vacation” – though rumor has it that if only I could get a job in Congress, the FBI, or the Treasury Department is that paying taxes is a thing that you can safely ignore.

One of the joys of a cross-country camping trip is planning.  Our idea is to minimize the number of things that we’ll need to buy once we get there, since the closest place to our campground to buy anything is a convenience store that’s a 30 mile (243 kilometer) round trip, and their idea of good wine is Mad Dog 20/20®.

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Pictured:  A beverage.  Not pictured:  A beverage that I would drink.  Photo CC 2.0 SA by Philosophygeek, via Wikimedia

I had heard through my daughter, Alia S. Wilder, that a forest fire had popped up along our route.  I checked the route the night before, and our usual route was indeed closed – the small fire had blossomed like Star Wars® into a huge dumpster fire.  Google® maps are nice, I could compare alternate routes and try to pick the best one.  The best (of all of our alternatives) took due south of the fire, but would add hundreds of miles and thus over three hours to our journey.  As the base journey was already over 12 hours, this makes for a very long car trip.

I told The Mrs. of our route change.  She groaned.  On a car trip that starts at 12 hours, each additional hour of travel feels like two.  Or three.  And since our fuel consumption (once we hooked up to the trailer) was roughly 3 gallons per mile, unless we towed a small refinery behind us, we’d have to stop for gas at lease every 120 miles, versus my normal 420 miles between stops.  During many a trip I’ve reminded my children that nobody has died of a burst bladder in the United States since 1923.  I don’t know if that’s a fact, but it sure sounds like one.  Pugsley, The Boy and I did one trip where we stopped . . . only when we needed gas or food, literally hours between stops.  Pure perfection from a Dad standpoint.

But we would stop every 120 miles on this trip – no more than two hours between stops.  While that is nice and bladder-friendly, it slows down the trip – each stop takes at least 10 minutes.  Also, pulling the trailer would limit our maximum speed, probably down to the trotting speed of a small horse.

With that sense of foreboding, knowing the trip would be fifteen hours or so, we set off.

Less than 10 miles from our house, a car drove by the camper and made the “Live Long and Prosper” sign from Star Trek®.  It was great.  A few hours later, a car also did this at 70 miles per hour, and nearly wrecked.  I’m thinking he thought it was really cool, nearly cool enough to die for?  Yes.  It’s that cool.

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About two hours into the trip (after the first stop, or maybe even the second), The Mrs. looked at me and noted my pale blue shirt, bandana, aviator sunglasses, and hat (though mine is brown) and said . . . “You’re dressed like Sam Neill from Jurassic Park.”  I laughed.

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Thankfully, no dinosaurs were injured during the writing of this post.

Then The Mrs. and I both had the same thought, namely the following video.  Even if you hate embedded videos, I highly suggest you give this one a shot.

 

If only I could play the flute that well . . .

Travelling is one way to see the world through different eyes.  One thing we noticed is the prevalence of center pivot irrigation as we drove into drier territory.  Center pivot irrigation?  What kind of sorcery is that?

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A center pivot sprinkler.  Photo Credit:  The Boy.  He granted me a perpetual non-exclusive license to use this however I wanted in exchange for not abandoning him 300 miles from home.

Essentially, center pivot irrigation is a huge lawn sprinkler, up to (the largest I’ve seen) a half of a mile long, that rotates . . . around the center.  So, if you have a square mile of land, you could water a one mile circle of land with a single sprinkler.  Through the magic of mathematics, that’s about 78% of the square mile, but you don’t have to haul a 2500’ hose around – the sprinkler just keeps going ‘round and ‘round, irrigating whatever you decided to plant.  If I were a farmer, I’d plant whatever plant makes steak.  Because, as a vegan, steak is my favorite vegetable.  Especially medium rare.  Or, maybe bratwurst vines?

But back to irrigation (because it’s sooooo exciting).  Center pivot irrigation was invented in 1940, and allows farmers to grow crops in places that don’t have enough water for them (typically).  Even though there isn’t a lot of rain there, under the ground in the west, there are billions and billions of gallons of water in the Ogallala aquifer.  (Aquifer is a fancy name for an underground refrigerator where water is stored at 42˚F (-30˚C.)

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Ogallala water thickness, via USGS via Wikipedia, CC-SA 3.0

By pumping water into the center pivot system, farming of really water intensive crops, like corn, is possible in areas that would normally be too dry.  This is awesome!  Technology makes life good for everyone – water from the Ogallala aquifer allows for the production of over $20 billion of food and cotton each year.  Thank you, Ogallala for the ribeye trees that you grow!

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Ogallala depletion, via USGS (public domain)

But the Ogallala drains over time, and it can take up to 6,000 years to recharge.  In fact, the Ogallala is nearly gone in Texas (though it looks just fine in Nebraska).  I would make a joke that Texas sucks, but in this case it really does – it has sucked up the largest quantity of Ogallala water that hasn’t been replaced.  Places that used to be productive farmland are now turning back to dry land crops or cattle pasture.  Good news?  Corn in Nebraska for the next few thousand years . . .

One of the bigger pressures nowadays is to grow corn.  Why, is there a Dorito® shortage?  No.  Corn can be converted to ethanol.  Normally I’m for any production of ethanol, but in this case, they don’t drink it, they BURN it.  Heresy!

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Here is a distillery where ethanol is made.  And then (sob) mixed with gasoline where it’s burned in car engines.  The Mrs. was pretty sure that despite that pesky bill of rights, that Homeland Security would not be happy about me posting a picture of an ethanol plant because of freedom or something.

Why are we putting all that corn into gasoline?

Is it cheaper?  No.   Not really – ethanol is “renewable” so that makes it awesome!  And since it’s renewable, we should pump down the Ogallala aquifer faster!

Let’s be clear – ethanol is mandated to be in gasoline NOT because it’s a government transfer payment to thousands of (voting) farmers by forcing a market for corn that wouldn’t exist.  It’s because it’s good for us.  Right?  I mean, ethanol will stop global warming, obesity, and, I am told, the eventual thermodynamic death of the universe through all useful energy being lost to entropy.  Go ethanol!

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Here, however, is water that looks so inviting!  I would have buried my head in it and drank deeply, except I noticed that pesky sign.  Ruins all the fun.  Photo credit:  The Boy.

Next (in the series):  The Worst Convenience Store on Our Trip plus 151,000, The Mountains, An IHOP™ Tease and a Short Turn Radius, More Convenience Store Shenanigans, Ahab and Griswold

 

 

 

 

Trip to the Arctic Circle – Conclusion

“Ward, I’m very worried about the Beaver.” – June Cleaver, “Leave it to Beaver”

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I know it doesn’t look especially finger-y, but this is Finger Rock, at Finger Mountain. From another view, it looks much more finger-esque, but that photo wasn’t as good. I know that’s like showing you a picture I took of Mt. Rushmore from inside Lincoln’s nose, but, hey, you get what you pay for.

As we drove farther north, on the right I saw a rock that looked like a finger, jutting proudly out of the ground, as if some gigantic stone megalith man was attempting to free himself from the millions of tons of earth smothering him. It reminded me of what Mel Gibson feels his career is like right now.

We stopped a mile down the road at . . . Finger Mountain. In the rest of the free world, Finger Mountain would be a good excuse to put in a gravel pit, crunch up some rocks, and continue mankind’s attempt to pave the planet. At Finger Mountain, it was a good place to put some bathrooms and a few placards. The first placard described a local herb that grows in the tundra. Said herb makes a tasty tea, with the unfortunate side effect that it contains an incredibly powerful laxative. Where are the junior high kids when you need them?

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This plant probably allowed many a native Alaskan to play some wicked practical jokes on explorers. “Tea, sure, we’ve got tea.” Snicker.

The best part about Finger Mountain is that it allowed us to get up and walk around a bit. We had begun to contour our bodies to fit the seats in the vehicle, and getting out and stretching felt good. For a five-year-old who’s normally extraordinarily active to be placed in a car and see . . . yet another batch of scraggly trees, well, Finger Mountain was good for The Boy’s soul. When’s the last time you were so happy you danced?

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The distortion field is on again. Did nobody ever tell The Boy to not mix his camo patterns?

Looking north from Finger Mountain, the pipeline and the road stretched off into the distance, toward Prudhoe Bay and the sweet, sweet oil. If you look at the pipeline from the air, you’ll see that as the road curves up and around it again and again it makes endless $ patterns, like the one you see here. It also makes endless $ for Alaskans. I think that maybe a secret cabal designed this. It surely couldn’t be . . . coincidence.

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Where money and oil intersect . . . oh, wait, that’s always. These are just road intersections with a pipeline.

As I said before, most of Finger Mountain would be gravel in your state, and, frankly I can’t why that’s not a bad idea here, as well. I think if we keep digging, we’d find that the Earth is made of . . . rocks. Most of ‘em just like these.

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That’s the problem with Alaska. Have a random pile of rocks? Make it part of a national park.

As we closed in on the Arctic Circle, lots of things went through my mind, but the continually repeating one is that we were nearly 200 miles from the nearest spare auto parts and wrecker, and I’m driving a car that I maintained. The road continued to be good, and aside from the few times that I hit washboarding so bad that my car was essentially no longer rolling but bouncing from the tops of these (not so good for steering control) I’ve got to say that the road was far better than I’d expected.

Also, there were occasional signs to lighten the mood in the car:

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Yeah, the sign really says that. No trees around here, either. Beavers musta got ’em. Either that or Meryl Streep clear cut the tundra.

NEXT: The Arctic Circle and Home Again

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2006

“It’s not the years, honey, it’s the mileage.” – Indiana Jones, Raiders of the Lost Ark

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This one is the standard tourist shot, except for the Bermuda Shorts and black socks.

Up the road we continued, seeing the same pipe and the same tundra for miles and miles. The tundra itself is a very thin layer of usable soil, while underneath is a biological wasteland devoid of life. I imagine this is much like the surface of Keanu Reeves’ brain.

We finally, after traversing Beaver Slide, made it to . . . The Arctic Circle. Inexplicably, the road is again paved at about this point, marking the first paving in about seventy miles of road.

Most tourists take a picture of the front of the sign. We did, too. We also took a picture of the back of the sign. Seems like you should not allow certain people to have spray paint, but, what the heck. They didn’t mess with the front, so we could get a nice picture.

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Even the vandals in Alaska are nice.

Most people stopped, got out, took a picture and left. Probably a good idea. I don’t think basking in the circleness of the Arctic makes you smarter or anything, even though the Arctic Circle line is moving about 45 feet (57 meters) a year to the north. It’s really a case of been there, done that. I emptied the gas can that I’d brought into the tank again, lamenting (slightly) that I’d brought a vehicle that had 137,000 some-odd miles on it. I reassured myself that I’d only have to push it halfway home, since each hill has another side, right?

We stopped at the Hot Spot Café on our way back home. Any other place in the world, the Hot Spot would be known as “three construction trailers.” In Alaska, it’s an outpost of civilization.

Think about it . . . the Hot Spot doesn’t have electricity from a utility, there’s no phone, there’s no mail delivery, and the credit card that I used may not be billed for some time, since they used one of those old-time card imprint machines to make the slip.

The Mrs. was looking at buying a shirt. The Hot Spot Café logo is . . . a naked girl in a coffee cup. I didn’t know that The Mrs. would approve of such a purchase, yet here she was buying a shirt with a nude chick on it. Hmm. Here’s what it looks like:
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Okay, perhaps I made this out to be bigger than it was. But, women, coffee, and burgers. Is that heaven or what?

As you can see I bought the hat pin version. The Mrs., after seeing that she would be advertising unclothed women was a bit aghast, and put the shirt back on the shelf, like she had touched a lizard. I noticed that the shirt was stacked right under rack of sling shots with the Hot Spot logo right in the center of some silky material. In actuality, The Mrs. informed me that those weren’t sling shots, but thong underwear. I decided not to buy a pair because I thought they weren’t in my color.

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Even bears like the Hot Spot.

I wanted to buy gas at the Hot Spot, but apparently the pump had been broken since Nixon was president, and they sent me down the road a half a mile to where the pumps were working. On the way I mused about what life would be like on the Yukon. The Mrs. indicated that I would die, lacking the Internet.

I bought gas on the banks of the Yukon at $3.79, only $1.00 more than in Fairbanks. The couple in front of us bought 220 gallons for their boat. I remarked that was a lot of gas, but The Mrs. pointed out that running out of gas on the Yukon River might be a bad idea, what with the starving to death and all.

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If Indiana Jones had a boat, it would look just like this, and be right where this one is.

On the way home I ran into some folks that had thrown a tire. I stopped to help and saw an acquaintance helping out, so I lent my jack. Turns out my acquaintance had just stopped to help some people he didn’t know. Fairbanks is like that.

Finally, home. Cold beer.

Been there.

Done that.

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The mud from the Haul Road covered the Wildermobile in a fine dirt patina, about a quarter-inch thick. If I did this trip a few more times, I could have a really dirty car.

To the Arctic Circle . . . and Beyond. Part II

I don’t want to live in a pipe, buttmunch!” – Beavis, Beavis and Butthead

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Ho-Hum. More Alaska landscapes. .

During our few, blessed miles of pavement, there was a scenic overlook, complete with those steel thingys that the Committee of Old School Teachers (COST) puts information on that only a school teacher would be interested in, and then, only if it was in their subject. Things like, “Cortez discovered he had hemorrhoids at this location in 1522. Amazing!”

In typical Alaska-fashion, these steel sign holders were blank, the signs either removed to patch a camper shell, or, more likely, were never installed. Well, not entirely blank. Someone named Rachel Lovelace was there on Aug. 29, 2006. Likewise, someone had left very good instructions on the steel surface in pencil:

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The other thing about the Haul Road is that there are very few bathrooms. By bathrooms, I mean bathrooms with doors. As to other bathrooms, well, there’s 416 miles of them, 832 if you count both sides of the road.

As you drive up the road, you can’t help but notice that something’s following you. It’s the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. It’s sneaky the way it meanders up and down the hills, sometimes poking underground for a while. I guess that’s okay. Pipe can be sneaky if it wants to be, especially if it’s carrying sweet, sweet oil. But it’s still boring. Pipe is just a fancy hole.

The other things following you are trucks and other rubberneckersexplorers. A group of us got caught by construction on the road and had to wait about twenty minutes for the road to re-open so we could follow the pilot car through. It was there that we encountered the first flat. It wasn’t ours, but rather a fellow gawker explorer. He waved off our offer of help, and continued spinning lug nuts on his Toyota pickup. Since he was in full view while we were waiting for the construction to let us through, I can tell you that NASCAR is not looking for his application, at least based on how long it took for him to change the tire. Watching the Pipe was more exciting.

Driving on the road is a bit of a hammering experience. Tundra, taiga, big rocks, and, well, that’s about it.

Then, finally, Nirvana: something exciting to look at. The Yukon. After looking at scraggly trees for 140 miles, seeing not only a river but a riverwas wonderful.

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First glimpse of a new river. I believe I’ll call it Wilder River. Perhaps not, since that sounds like a water park. Maybe I’ll settle on something like John’s River instead. Yeah, that has a ring to it.

The Yukon River is about 2,000 miles (17,000 cubits) long, though I cannot vouch for that personally. It carries 227,000 cubic feet per second (7 liters per minute) as an average annual flow. I strongly suspect that someone just made that last number up. Maybe it was Cortez.

Next: The Bridge and Beyond

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2006

“Captain Picard to the bridge. We’ve got a problem with the warp core or the phase inducers or some other damn thing.” – Geordi, Star Trek TNG

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Sign, sign, everywhere a sign. But this one is cool. 

As I said when last we were chatting, the view of the bridge over the mighty Yukon (as in, “Yukon, Ho!” which was finally replaced by the more mundane “Life in Alaska” because I didn’t want people to think I ran a string of women with tight parkas and loose morals) was refreshing. After seeing miles and miles of wonderful trees and panoramic mountain vistas, I was really in the mood to see a big hunk of steel sitting on concrete.

The name “Yukon” refers to either “great river” in a native Alaskan language, Gwich’in or the University of Connecticut.” The river’s basketball team sucks, but I still like it better than UConn. I digress. The bridge is known as the E. L. Patton bridge, which makes me think of George C. Scott in a Zorro mask . . . el Patton: “Ah, Señor Rommel, mí casa es sú casa, eh?”

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I’m ever so glad that there aren’t termites in Alaska (really, no termites there). The water looked cold. And deep.

The bridge itself is composed of concrete, steel and . . . wood. Now many of you recognize the great affinity that I have for cutting, hauling, and burning wood. As a bridge deck when you’re above a big, deep, cold river? Well, if the trucks can make it, I guessed we could.

The Boy was in a state of excitement. A big river, a big bridge, and lots of trucks. What’s not to like?

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Looking east on the Yukon. I think that there are fish in water, which is why I prefer beer.

The biggest settlement we would see all day is on the north side of the Yukon. I’ll give more info on that in a later post. Let’s just say it involves naked women living in champagne glasses. How’s that for a teaser?

Pulling about five miles north of the bridge, there’s Five Mile Airport. It’s owned by Alyeska, the folks that run the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. As far as airports go, this one is unique. Landing a plane requires that the Dalton Highway be shut down. The Dalton runs right by the strip, and I could have gotten all the light bulbs I’d ever need if we had stopped. Unfortunately none of my light fixtures are “airport” rated.

The terrain changes as you go farther north, trees becoming scarcer as the Arctic Circle comes nearer. The terrain has a stark, barren beauty, like New Mexico or Meryl Streep. You can tell that the weather pushes to harsh extremes. You can tell that there’s no beer store close.

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If Meryl Streep were a landscape, I think she’d look like this.

Next: Finger Rock and Farther North

A Trip to the Arctic Circle, Part 1 (And, yes, this really happened mostly as written.)

Following are some posts for while I’m off on yet another Wilder expedition – our shuttlecraft is stocked with provisions.  These are vintage September, 2006, right before we moved to Houston.  Enjoy!

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“He might as well ride along with us; Hell, everybody else is.” – The Outlaw Josey Wales
Yeah, it’s a cool roadsign. Wonder if it would fit in my basement?

As long as I’ve been in Alaska, I’ve wanted to go up beyond the Arctic Circle. The Arctic Circle is the point north of which where (astronomically speaking) there’s a day without the Sun ever crossing the horizon (December 21st). In the summer, it’s the point north of which where the Sun won’t ever go down (June 21st). It’s at 66º33’ North latitude.

My obsession to reach a spot surveyed on a map, as determined by the (more or less) random arrangement of the Sun, Earth, and, for all I know, Keebler Cookies™ led me to state that September 3, 2006 was the day we were going. In retrospect, it was probably a bad idea to start watching The Outlaw Josey Wales at 11:45PM the night before, but, heck, it is Clint Eastwood. As it ended up, I didn’t wrestle The Mrs. for the last beer, I was gracious and ceded it after a spirited Ro-Sham-Bo (Ro-Sham-Bo comes from some French words, so for all I know it could be spelled Reaux-Xchampres-Beau). The Mrs. was up before I, and we (groggily) got the gang ready for transit to the Arctic.

Okay, that’s just a cool sentence, primarily because it’s true. One foot over the Arctic Circle, you’re in the Arctic. On foot behind, you’re not.

To get ready, we packed:

  • Four Spare Tires
  • Floor Jack
  • Jackets
  • Food
  • Guns (it’s Alaska, okay?)
  • Whiskey for Bullet Wounds
  • Gas Can (with four gallons gas)

As it is, the only road I know of in Alaska that can get you to the Arctic is the Haul Road, or Dalton Highway, which is of course named for actor Timothy Dalton, who played James Bond. Locals call it the Haul Road, because they’re still irked about Dalton’s portrayal of Bond.

The Haul Road is the road that they used to build the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. It’s the road still used to get mail, pipe, PEZ™ dispensers, and whatever else you couldn’t to put on a boat during the fifteen or so minutes a year when you can take a boat up to Prudhoe Bay. Prudhoe Bay is, of course, the place where the sweet, sweet oil comes from.

Primarily, the road is intended for truckers, not cool-headed Arctic Explorers in Ford Explorers® heading up to rubberneck collect scientific data.

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This is a sign on the road. No counties, no boroughs, just a mining district. I guess that means that only mining law is in effect, and so technically The Mrs. is a claim. Works okay. You know what happens to claim jumpers.

Just getting to the haul road from Fairbanks requires driving up the Steese Highway (named for Wilberforce Steese, inventor of the Floo-Bee®) to a mining down named Fox, followed by a trip up the Elliot Highway (named for Sam Elliot, star of Road House) to the start of the Haul Road. Just outside Fox the first sign shows up saying that the next services are 118 miles away. That’s the sort of sign that you don’t see everywhere, except in desolate godforsaken locations like Wyoming, northern Canada, or Oakland.

Next: Start of the Haul Road

 (You don’t have to wait days to read part II  – it’s right below!!)

“I honestly don’t think we’re going to find the Grand Canyon on this road.” –  Vacation

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Pretty early on in the trip I saw this truck. My immediate concern was that we were driving into some post-apocalyptic Mad-Max scenario, and I had left my midget and steel-spiked shoulder pads at home.

We made it to the Haul Road. The first I ever heard of the Haul Road was during my first visit to Fairbanks. Over the Hertz® counter there’s a sign that says your rental car will immediately burst into flame if you go on the Haul Road. Beyond that, Hertz™ then lays claim to your soul and any EverQuest stuff you have. The warnings were strong.

If you noted from my earlier post, I said I took four spare tires for the trip. Actually, that’s wrong. I took five spare tires, because the one that comes with the car was packed between the tires under the axle. An aside: you’re just got a flat. You’re irritated. Some goofball in Detroit then puts the spare so you have to crawl under the car to access it. Does that make sense to anyone? You’re in trouble, so we’ll torture you by design for a while? It’s like credit card companies designed that part of the car.

I digress. The speed limit sign is one of the first things you see on the Haul Road. It indicates that the speed limit is 50 MPH (342km/s) for the next 416 miles. I thought about that, and it made sense. If you have a road that has exactly one way in, and exactly one way out, why would you need more than one speed limit sign? It’s not like you could seriously make an argument that you didn’t know the speed limit because you just got on the road.

Missing was the sign that said, “Abandon all hope, ye who enter here,” or, “Here be dragons,” or “Hertz® now owns your soul, keep it clean.”

The next nineteen miles were rough road. By rough, whenever we went up an incline, the stereo would vibrate out of the cavity that holds it, as if it were attempting to break out of its cocoon and become an I-Pod®. The Mrs. and I took turns holding it in place. Inexplicably, nineteen miles up the haul road, the rough, washboard dirt road turns into (fairly) smooth asphalt.

Immediately I began wondering. Was the whole “rough Haul Road” thing a ruse? Do we just tell stories to scare people away?

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Here’s the road at mile 19. Look, Ma, no dirt.

No. The paved section (complete with road signs) disappeared a few miles after it started. It was, essentially, a tease. I was like the AKDOT said, “Hey, guys, we could pave this if we really wanted, but, no, we really don’t. Well, now you know what the road could be like.”

It was about this point that I saved The Boy’s life. I had mentioned the day before that we were going up the Dalton Highway. I did this because The Boy must know the name of any road we find ourselves on. Immediately, the little meat microprocessor (his term, really) interpreted “Dalton Highway” as “Dolphin Highway.” I guess he doesn’t like Timothy Dalton, either.

I saved his life by having him stop saying “Dolphin Highway” after he’d done it about 332 times. That’s about the limit The Mrs. has. Fortunately, he never said, “Are we there yet?”

Why the media is driving you crazy (with all the Tom Cruise and Tommy Chong you can eat, but only in Wisconsin)

“You rang?” – The Addams Family

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You can see Hollywood® height in action here.  In reality, Tom Cruise is only four inches (like 10 centimeters) tall!  He’s a pocket celebrity!

One criticism I have of the media is that it sets an expectation of the way the world should be.  The media does this in a silly way:  single girls in New York City own 3,000 square foot apartments and work as flunkies at the local ad agency as the wacky receptionist.  The media indicates that Tom Cruise is 6’2” (37 meters) tall, even though we have pictures to prove that Tom Cruise fits as carry-on luggage in a 737.

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So, Tom Cruise is shorter than the average height of a 3rd grade girls’ basketball team.  Doesn’t matter, they haven’t carded him since 2015!

The biggest bias, however is that of the news writers, Internet publishers and national broadcasters.  Every piece of news is advocacy.  How can I justify this bold statement?  Besides the incredible mixture of Pinot Noir and steroids flowing through my veins, only awaiting the caffeine as the activator chemical, I offer this bit of evidence:

When The Mrs. was involved in news broadcasting, she selected the stories that would be covered in the broadcast.  And, since The Mrs. didn’t like the NBA®, NBA™ news never made it to the broadcast.  Never.  Michael Jordan might have had LeBron James’ love child in a Swiss robot factory with Larry Bird as the godfather and she wouldn’t have broadcast it.  Instead?  The Mrs. inserted stories about a sport she did like, NHL™ hockey, even though there wasn’t a professional hockey team within a ten hour drive from where the broadcasts originated, and ice had to be imported from Utah, which, strangely forbade that the ice be properly mixed with bourbon.

Even though the stories themselves were without bias, the selection of the stories wasn’t.  Although the topic The Mrs. didn’t wish to cover was (and is) exceedingly trivial, it sank home with me:  the gatekeepers choose the stories and the narratives.  The gatekeepers do so with the express purpose of furthering their viewpoint and silencing dissenting evidence.  And even though much of the news today has a significant bias in straight news reporting, it’s the stories that you never hear that also contribute to that bias.

How bad is the bias?  Only 7% of journalists are Republican.  You can simply view election night footage from the 2016 presidential election to verify that.  And, I think much of the street-level misbehavior in recent days has been a reaction to the increasingly polarized news.  Much of the news media we used to consume in the past was locally sourced and sustainable and gluten-free.  It was the town newspaper, which could be had in most small towns and was run by the local boy who decided that ink was in his veins and he wanted to put a daily out to the locals.  Heck, even a hamlet of 1100 people had a newspaper that had an 80 year history in my memory.  It was a small paper, but everyone got it.

The values that the local newspaper editor/publisher/journalist/typesetter put in the paper mirrored the local values for over 200 years.  These values were always tempered and supplemented with news from outside the small town – the town didn’t exist in a vacuum.

Now many of those papers have vanished, and others have long since stopped being the local source for in-depth news.  You read the local paper to figure out who won the softball game, and which kid was on (or not on) the honor roll.

What’s replaced it?  Television and news via the internet.

Where does television come from?  New York and Los Angeles are the two big metropolitan areas that are the headquarters for the major broadcasters.  And the internet?  It’s got San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles and Seattle as the hubs for the major news operations.  None of the major locations that now serve the majority of news to Americans is on the right – each of these cities is exceptionally far left.  I know it doesn’t seem that way to those of you that live there, but, good heavens, those governments have more regulations than the old Soviet Union (even though I just made that fact up, I’m pretty sure it’s true – I heard that Stalin® was arrested in Seattle for trying to open a lemonade stand – too capitalist.  Plus Stalin™ couldn’t prove the lemons were free range, vegan, locally sourced, and carbon neutral.  He claimed Lenin© ate that paperwork.  Stupid Lenin®.

And thus, when Donald Trump was elected president, through the process as outlined in the Constitution and followed since George Washington was drinking brandy by the fire at Mt. Vernon with the Hooters® girls, calls immediately came to “restore our democracy.”  People took to the streets to protest a president before he had been inaugurated – and immediate calls for his impeachment went out.

Why?

The left had been living in a lie, sort of like the mirror the Kardashians® keep on their wall.  In this world, Donald Trump is a monster – all of their media, all of their news told them so (just like they said the same things about George W. Bush™, who is now totes okay).  Trump was not a political opponent with a set of positions that were backed by millions and millions of decent, smart, hardworking Americans.  No.  He was an evil villain who wants to eat children and send them to his hellish pits under the Earth to mine for Trumpenite, a substance known to cause really unusual hair.  However, per my last count, he has eaten no children, nor put any into concentration camps (despite what the media might say, and they told me the Arctic would be ice free by 2014, so, you know, my trust level is low).

But no one who reads this will be able to do a thing about it until November, 2020.

The media frenzy against all things Trump, the bias, has whipped millions of normally sane people into a rabid frenzy to the point that they defend Haiti as a great place to send their toddlers out to play in the streets, point out that MS-13 murderers are probably great neighbors as long as they don’t move to the suburbs, and come to the conclusion that Kim Jong-Un either is awesome or such an evil genius that he blew up his own nuclear facility just to prove that he didn’t need nuclear weapons to have nuclear weapons.  Or something.

And this is the point of this blog – the inability to deal with reality is just . . . unhealthy.

Take a deep breath, if you’re on the left.  Step back.  Trump has done something you like.   Admit it.  It’s out there.

It’s also a paradox – standards and expectations are necessary for excellence in anything.  There must be a burning desire to turn “what is” into “what could be.”  But when that same desire is thwarted because no reasonable action will make any difference, the matter is beyond your control.  This leads to the profound sense of helpless misery that many on the left are feeling about the election (that happened in 2016!) – and that many on the right are feeling about, say, Robert Mueller®, who starred in the 1960’s comedy series The Addams Family as Lurch©, the butler.

mueller

Is it just me, but shouldn’t he say this every single time he testifies at Congress?

And not one person who reads this can do anything about Mueller, either.

And not one person who this who is in a frenzy about either Trump or Mueller is at all healthy.

I’ve written about this before in The Coming Civil War (United States), Cool Maps, and Uncomfortable Truths and I think it’s tearing us apart even faster than I had originally thought.  I try not to take sides, but the left has really inflamed this situation to a point of incivility worse than any episode I’ve ever seen of The Big Bang Theory (spoiler, I only saw one, and it was awful).

All of this brings me back to The Mrs.:  If I come home and have the expectation that she’s arranged my PEZ® dispensers into the outline of the Danish coastline like I asked her to do, and find out she hasn’t, I have four choices:

  • Get as angry as a liberal restaurant owner at Sarah Huckabee Sanders, or
  • Appoint a special counsel to investigate her, or
  • Riot in the streets that Denmark is really a part of Germany, and should be open to all Germans, or
  • Don’t care and do it myself.

I assure you that I’m a last bullet point kind of guy.  Earlier in my life, I might have had higher expectations, but then I realized – if The Mrs. has a hot meal ready for me when I get home, I should be grateful.  I should say thanks.  If she doesn’t, I know where the fridge is, and there’s probably a good reason we don’t have dinner ready.  Or not.  If I let myself get as twisted as Bill Clinton’s lingerie collection, well, I’ll be unhappy AND hungry AND have thong marks on my butt until they bury me in 40 years or so.

So, I don’t have that expectation.  I have the expectations that The Mrs. is faithful, holds our family relationship as at least her number two priority in life (there has to be room for a higher entity, and I don’t mean Tommy Chong), and that The Mrs. flushes the toilet so I can pretend The Mrs. doesn’t poop.  The Mrs. meets those criteria, so everything else is groovy.

chong

I loved these Cheech and Chong when I was a kid.  As I understand it Tommy Chong’s toenail clippings are considered a controlled substance in every state except Wisconsin.

One amazingly significant source of frustrations for people is looking and the world, and seeing it as . . . wrong.  If there’s a solution or something you can do to change it, then work to change it.  If there’s nothing you can do to change it, it just is a fact.  So, relax.  Breathe deep.  You can make it.  And remember to vote on the first Wednesday in November of 2020!

THIS IS NOT POLITICAL, HEALTH, OR VOTING INFORMATION.  Seriously.  How could you think that?

2018 Predictions – Second Quarter Review

“You want a prediction about the weather, you’re asking the wrong Phil. I’ll give you a weather prediction: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last for the rest of your life.” – Groundhog Day

peakoil

Yeah, I guess this might have been wrong, since I now bathe in gasoline since it’s cheaper than bottled water or milk.

Okay, in an experiment in economic forecasting, I decided to do some financial predictions for 2018 (2018 Predictions – Wealth).  Why?  It seems like it’s what bloggers do:  they predict things poorly, and I decided I could do that poorly.  Even more poorly than television forecasters, but that’s hard – they don’t put what they say into print, so they change it every week.

I also promised a quarterly report card, and this is the second one.  So how are my predictions matching with reality?

Mixed bag.  One real stinker, the rest are still possible, at least in several games of Fallout™ that Pugsley has played.  Fallout© is just like real life, right?

fallout

But please note that when I explain what I think happened, I’m not trying some sort of argument to the effect of:  “I would have been right, but . . .” followed by some lame excuse.  No.  If I was wrong, I was wrong (to date, the year isn’t done, remember?) but much like a goldfish, I do have the ability to learn.

Oh, what were we talking about?  Fish flakes?  No.  Bitcoin.  Which might be worth less than fish flakes.

kelvin prediction

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is on life support, and a lawsuit has been filed in district court to let this prediction die, but this was overruled by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals (which also recently ruled that Kim Jong Un *must* restart his nuclear program, and, in general do stuff to prove Democrats Were Right All Along).  It is by far my worst prediction.  It has all of the risks shown below:

  • It (may) be vulnerable to hacking since it’s based on an NSA product – there may be hidden back doors. Or, the NSA might just hack your computer and steal all your Bitcoin that way.  It’s like doing taxes, but you don’t have to file.
  • Wal-Mart® doesn’t take it.   How many Bitcoin for that Chinese made grill?  Nobody knows.
  • It’s as volatile as a bi-polar ex-wife on meth. It looks more promising than Johnny Depp’s career.
  • The IRS has categorized each Bitcoin transaction as a taxable event.   Nobody keeps those kinds of records, and that is an absolute block for people wanting to use it like you’d use a dollar bill.  That moves it from a currency to an investment vehicle.  Use as a currency inherently raises the value of Bitcoin, but this moves it away from that.

My prediction in December:

“I think it might have more to fall before it becomes stabilized, maybe to $10,000.  But I predict it would be higher than $20,000 next December.” (June 2018 John Wilder says:  “December John Wilder was not stoned.  But that at least would have been a good excuse for this stupid prediction.”)

Second Quarter Scorecard:

How’s that working so far?  In the first quarter, it was bouncing around my $10,000 prediction for the stabilization number.  Now?  $6,000.  Ugly.  And there’s no reason it can’t drop more.

katyperry

Is $20,000 still possible?  Yes.  And Katy Perry© might win the Nobel® Prize in physics.

The Stock Market

In December I said:  “The biggest risks are North Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, with anything that created higher oil prices being the biggest risk.  Chances of impeachment this year?  Nearly zero.”  To show you how much the world has moved on, I struck out all of the things that didn’t go wrong this year.  Things are, generally, going very well indeed.

New Risks Since December Prediction

  • Democrats taking the House of Representatives in November – this is a risk because it greatly increases political uncertainty. That’s a huge risk the market has not priced in.  October will be the most volatile month this year, if the Republicans keep the House.  If they lose the house – November will be a very difficult month in the Market.  But if Pelosi keeps talking Trump keeps Trumping – the Republicans have nothing to fear.
  • How much will the Fed increase interest rates (see below)?
  • Is Facebook® in trouble for data? Facebookâ„¢ might be the spark that melts the market down . . . or not.

2018 Prediction on the S&P 500:

“Up.  Not 24%.  But up, say, 10%.  2019?  We’ll see.”

Second Quarter Scorecard:

So far, year to date, it’s now down 1.8%.  No real problem there – it can still easily hit my 10% mark.  And if the Republicans win bigly in November?  10% is an easy achievement.  This tale will be told in October and November, I think.

diseaseprediction

Interest Rates:

We’re recovering from the longest period of low interest rates in history.  All of history.  It really won’t make a difference, but the Federal Reserve simply must increase rates so that we can pretend that the money isn’t all made up.  Eventually if there’s a credible alternative (Bitcoin? Swiss Francs?) the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates . . . a lot.

If it’s too much this year, we’ll enter a recession – maybe right away.  I don’t think that’s likely in 2018.  Trump’s Fed chair will want to raise the rates – after this election.  Maybe right after, so the economic pain is over and done with by the 2020 election.

2018 Prediction on the Federal Reserve Rate:

“Up slightly.  Eventually (2019, 2020?) up a lot.”

Second Quarter Scorecard:

The Fed funds rate has gone up, 0.25% and will likely go up more.  If that doesn’t sound like much, you’re wrong – it went up from 1.75% to 2.0%.  That’s increasing rates by 14%, and it’s nearly certain the Fed will increase rates two or three more times this year.

Mortgage rates have gone up from 3.95% to 4.52%.  Not a lot, but there will be more to come . . .   Seems in line with my prediction (so far).

computer

Gold/Silver:

2018 Prediction on the Gold/Silver:

“Meh.  Wanders back and forth.  Probably ends the year +/-10% of where it started.  2019 or 2020 might be different stories, and longer term it will still experience huge upward swings during times of uncertainty.  It appears we’re currently at the “no crisis” pricing, which would probably be a good time to stock up.”

Second Quarter Scorecard:

Gold is down 0.4% for the year.  Silver is up 2%.  It’s wandering (for now), so it’s in line with predictions.

Please note that when a stock market crisis hits (not if, but when) ALL asset classes will drop in price (except for food and ammo).  That’s generally a great time to buy gold.  If it’s an inflationary spike?  Yeah, you’ll be too late for the party – people will dump dollars to buy commodities like gold.

stupidtwain

Disclaimer:  I haven’t started any positions in anything above the last three days and don’t expect to start any in the next three.  So there, neener, neenter.  Also, I’m not a decent financial advisor, and this set of “predictions” is probably as good as Katy Perry’s kitchen whiteboard for predicting the future and probably worse than flipping a coin.