Book Review: Civil War Two, Part I

“I’ll give you a winter prediction:  it’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life.” – Groundhog Day

prediction.jpg

There was a dwarf fortune teller that was wanted by police.  The news headline was “Small medium at large.”

One of the comments on the very first issue of the Civil War Two Weather Report (You can find all three Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming, Civil War Weather Report #2, Censorship, Stalin, and a Bunch of Links, Civil War Weather Report #3: Violence, China, and Lots of Links) was a link to Thomas W. Chittum’s 1997 book Civil War Two:  The Coming Breakup of AmericaIt is available as a .pdf here.  Ordinarily I’d point you towards Amazon® so you could buy the book and put money in the author’s pocket, but it looks like the book has been out of print for some time.

Update:  it’s here, Mr. Chittum pointed me in this direction.  Please give this one a purchase – it’s good for Mr. Chittum, and I promise I don’t make a dime off of it.

Chittum had an interesting past before writing this book – he fought in Vietnam for the United States.  Apparently that wasn’t enough and the United States was all peaceful for the next twenty years, so he fought in Rhodesia and Croatia as a mercenary rifleman.  Oh, and he was a computer programmer for most of his life.

The book is now 22 years old, and it makes predictions.  How did it do?  I won’t spoil the plot too much, but Chittum has probably been better at predicting 2019 while writing about it in 1996 than a lot of people have done living in 2016 and predicting 2019.  It was pretty chilling to me to read how much Chittum had gotten right, so I thought I’d review the book.

As the notecards I use for blocking out posts went to three times the number I use for a typical post, I realized that the review would be take (at least) two posts, if not three.  So, here’s part one.  You’ll see part two next Monday.

Early on, Chittum notes that the United States has moved from the status of a nation to that of an empire.  Some might date the beginning of empire to the end of the first Civil War, but I’d say that the United States was, more or less, a single nation up until the 1970’s.  Sure there were regional differences, but the idea of kneeling when the national anthem was played wouldn’t have occurred to anyone but revolutionary Leftists.

disturbing.jpg

Make the Empire Great Again™!

The United States had a homogeneous culture for 90% plus of citizens in the 1970’s.  The dreams of the civic nationalist were realized in that era that resulted from very low immigration:  all that matters was that people were committed to being the idea of integrating and assimilating into being an American, and it would work out fine.  As long as we were one group that could sit and watch Cheers® or M*A*S*H™ or baseball, and cheer for our favorite teams, we’d be fine.

In the civic nationalist world it didn’t matter that your great-grandparents were Italian immigrants in 1900.  Your grandpa might have been named Enzio, but he went by Ernie and married an Irish gal named Mary.  Your dad played baseball.  Your name is Robert and your sister’s name is Nancy and the only thing really Italian about you is you like pizza.

I’d guess I’d use the participation in youth soccer as a proxy for demographic change.  We all know that soccer was originally invented in Europe so the Germans would have something to do besides invade France and conquer it in an afternoon.  It’s not a traditional game that Americans play.  Oh, sure, the United States women won the World Cup®.  But to be fair, we needed something for our women to do so they didn’t invade France, either.

soccergr.jpg

Let’s face it, our choice is either World Cup® soccer, or panzers streaking through Paris.  Is it just me, or do the panzers sound more interesting?

But Chittum points out that stability comes from a single group identity.  People being all on the same team makes us stronger, where as many groups make us weaker.  In this light, diversity isn’t Our Greatest Strength™, it’s really a weakness.

And his point is clear – ask a Leftist what it means to be an American, and you’ll likely get a vague statement about all you have to do to be an American is want to be one.  Asking them to learn English and assimilate and fit into American culture is for some reason now considered racist.  From the vantage point of 2019, it’s clear, diversity is our greatest weakness if we want a safe and stable nation.

This is observable in the real world.  Chittum fought in the breakup of the Balkans, and witnessed the breakdown of the Soviet Union.  When the Soviet Union fell, Chittum notes it was about 50% ethnic Russian.  The resulting nation that emerged was about 80% ethnic Russian and is much more stable.  It’s certainly more Russian.

The trends of a nation in peril are observable.  Our police departments don’t look like policemen, they’re now military.  Remember, to a cop, the citizens look like citizens.  To the military, everyone is a potential enemy.

  • SWAT teams raided Amish farms because they were selling unpasteurized milk.
  • Cops get armored personnel carriers like they’re patrolling Syria and not San Francisco.
  • Even local cops in Modern Mayberry wear gloves with hard plastic knuckles during normal patrols.

swat.jpg

When she pulled me over I rolled down the window and said, “What’s wrong?”  Her response?  “Nothing.”

Chittum spends a lot of time on the American Southwest – he figures it will be the trigger to the Civil War.

The original Reconquista took place in Spain as the Spanish expelled the Muslims who had conquered it over the course of six hundred years.  It was slow, but it finished up in 1492.  In the same way, Chittum notes that, although Mexico is a failed state, Mexicans are “retaking” the Southwest in a modern Reconquista that has taken place over decades since 1965, but with 1000% less Muslims.

bootsie.jpg

Nothing says practical like that hat!

Likewise, Chittum writes that the only solution is to close the border.  Of course he was writing this in 1997 so 22 years have passed.  Right now, at least 40% of the population of Los Angeles is foreign born.  In no way could Los Angeles be considered to be an American city today.  It might even be considered Mexican, as rival Mexican gangs have recently infiltrated the LA County Sheriff’s office (LINK).

Who loves this?  Leftists who wish to topple the United States:  Leftists need the votes.  Ethnic groups like La Raza:  La Raza is the intellectual part of the movement that actively wishes to retake the Southwest.  Multinational corporations:  they like the lower wages.

gangcop.jpg

Worst, though, are the hipster cops who will only arrest you ironically.

Let’s be clear:  Mexicans are patriots about Mexico.  They love their country – that’s why they proudly carry their flag during protests. Even in 1997, Chittum noted that crime was rampant in Mexico and the border was a mess and it’s even worse in Latin America south of Mexico.  Who can blame them for wanting to come to the United States, especially when some groups spin a fable of an ethnic empire, Aztlan, which is theirs for the taking?

The South and Northeast aren’t much better, and Chittum mentions that the Northeast will experience massive, open violence, which will be unorganized, and savage.  Some of the urban areas might survive as city-states.

California is his odds-on favorite to be ground zero.  Street gangs, as mentioned above, are numerous and founded on ethnicity.  They’ve infiltrated public organizations and the police and even allegedly corrupted members of the Marine Corps (LINK).  It’s this particular “enemy inside” that is troubling.  An external enemy is that can be fought, but when the enemy of the country becomes an internal enemy, it’s much worse – there’s a reason that treason is mentioned in the Constitution.

home.jpg

Ahh, California, the meth laboratory of democracy.

Chittum mentions militias.  They seemed to have their peak in the 1990’s, and quickly declined after Oklahoma City.  He also mentions “Committees of Correspondence” which were a mechanism for people to communicate with each other because they didn’t have the Internet in the 1760’s to begin to organize against the British, LOL.  The Internet serves this purpose now, with large groups getting information from unapproved sources, and even managing to “privately*” share information.

*Don’t bet your life or liberty on it.

Chittum writes that Civil War Two will be vicious, atrocity filled, and genocidal.  Civilian casualties are to be expected, and many will be on purpose.  Looting will be common.  This is not the usual scenario our military faces in any fashion, so the analyses performed by John Mark (see Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming) or Forward Observer (Civil War Weather Report #3: Violence, China, and Lots of Links) aren’t valid.  Civil War Two has the potential to be far worse than any conflict seen in history, as it combines both ethnic division along with ideological division – it’s like the Russian Revolution times Rwanda to the power of Somalia.

phase.jpg

I’ve been stuck in the same phase for . . . oh . . . twenty years now.  Maybe one day I’ll grow out of being a 12 year old.  I’m not telling you how long it took me to get to that phase!

There are four phases according to Chittum.  The first phase of the problem is what he refers to as Foundational.  He said in 1997 the Foundational phase was already complete.

  1. Tribalization of society – have different rules for different ethnic groups, push people to identify as something other than “American.”
  2. Power shift to unelected administrators, judges, board, commissions, and public servants.
  3. Since 1972, wages been stagnant, or, when compared to medical care or education, dramatically falling.
  4. The core of many large cities has been abandoned – think Baltimore or Detroit.
  5. Massive and sustained immigration, falling of standards and conditions in some locations to those similar to undeveloped countries.
  6. Racial organizations in police – militarization of police, which are both covered above.
  7. Treaties are more important that state sovereignty.
  8. A consistent and strong drive for gun control.
  9. From Antifa© to MS-13 to the Crips, these are in place.
  10. Mass media participation in the polarization. The mass media has already picked a side – Left.

We can see what Chittum says is behind us.  Next Monday we’ll look (from his vantage point in 1997 and ours in 2019) to see what else he’s predicted, and how far along we are.

Sweet dreams!

Red Flag Laws, or, How To Repeal The Second Amendment Soviet-Style Without A Pesky Vote

“Now, you see all these red flags?  Trouble spots.  Southeastern Asia.  The Caribbean.  The Congo.  I’ll give you one guess as to who’s responsible.” – Doctor Goldfoot and the Bikini Machine

gunsfromleft

I look much better after I’ve had a cup of coffee.  And after I’ve found my axe.

I know that you, gentle reader, have thoughts about guns that are probably pretty similar to mine, so I’d like to take you on a short walk through history, specifically the history of politics and psychiatry.  I promise, it will make more sense than the lyrics to the Manfred Mann song Blinded by the Light.  What the hell is a go-cart Mozart, and why is he checking out the weather chart, anyway?

(Related:  Civil War Weather Reports – Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming, Civil War Weather Report #2, Censorship, Stalin, and a Bunch of Links, and Civil War Weather Report #3: Violence, China, and Lots of Links)

The history of psychiatry is tied directly to the political.

I have seen a person suffering from schizophrenia to such a degree that they were sure that MTV® video stars were stealing songs directly from their brain and that they were also a surgeon who regularly performed operations on world leaders and stored their organs in the freezer for safe keeping.

If no one has ever told you that there are human organs belonging to world leaders in their fridge in a completely matter-of-fact “would you like a glass of water” voice, well, all I can tell you is that my first thought was one of complete disbelief that I had heard them right.  Yes, I asked for them to repeat that statement.  Twice.

I walked over and checked their freezer.   Thankfully the only things in it were some frozen pizzas and ancient ice cubes.  I assure you I was talking to their shrink that afternoon and they were involuntarily committed by 5PM.  They were helped, and after being put on some appropriately industrial levels of anti-psychotic medication, did okay enough to be released back into the wild.  As long as they stayed on their meds.

I know that there are actually crazy people that really need help.

But I also know this:  psychiatry is still the most politically abused medical profession.

depp.jpg

Okay, if Depp isn’t crazy, why does he keep starring in movies like this? 

Examples of political abuse of psychiatry?  There are many.  When I mentioned this topic to The Mrs., she immediately said, “the Soviet Union.”  And that’s the example I thought of first, too.  The Soviets systematically used diagnosis of psychological disorders such as “philosophical intoxication” and “sluggish schizophrenia” to put people who didn’t like Marxism into mental institutions.  And, no, those diagnoses aren’t lame jokes – those were really Soviet-era diagnoses.

How many were caught up in the psychological gulags?

We really don’t know since those records are still secret, but in 1978 at least 4.5 million Soviet citizens were listed as having mental health problems.  In 1988, perhaps thinking that they might face their own version of Soviet Nuremburg Trials for Crimes Against Humanity, Soviet leaders had over 800,000 thousand patients removed from the list of the mentally ill.  Paperwork error, surely?

redflag.jpg

Okay, with all those red flags, how did they not see the collapse of communism coming?

Did the Soviets condemn thousands with false diagnosis?  Nearly certainly.  Hundreds of thousands?  Very likely.

Millions?

Probably.  Think of it, millions of people falsely diagnosed with a mental illness due to political beliefs and sent to asylums and work camps.  Certainly some were executed.

deerhunting.jpg

The Soviets allowed ownership of smoothbore weapons for hunting.  Except when they didn’t.  Which was most of the time.  Oh, and the definition of sweet summer child is:  a person who doesn’t know the hardships of winter, often used when someone has no experience with a particular (stressful) thing, which may describe a generation that rhymes with perennial.

Okay, it was just the Soviet Union, right?

No.  Cuba did the same thing.  There is evidence that China is still doing it, and likely on scale similar to that of the Soviet Union.  Thankfully the World Psychiatric Association took the lead in investigations.  Oh, they didn’t?  The World Psychiatric Association pretty much ignored it and said that people associated with Falun Gong are nuts and that putting them in asylums run by the state security apparatus (not the medical directorate) was perfectly normal?

onefleweast.jpg

One flew east, one flew west, one flew over the cuckoo’s nest . . . and if you haven’t see the movie, you should, it’s a lighthearted comedy and perfect for a first date.

Okay, that’s just China.  Thankfully this would never happen in the United States.

Oh, it did?

Sure.  In the 1920’s dissidents (like one who protested the trial of Sacco and Vanzetti) were put into asylums.  In the 1960’s members of the American Psychological Association smeared presidential candidate Barry Goldwater in the press by diagnosing him.  But that wasn’t political, right?

Thankfully it isn’t happening now.

Oh, in 2012 a whistleblower with the NYPD was railroaded on mental health?  Ouch.  But New York is corrupt.

It would never happen based on political motives, right?

Dinesh D’Souza, author and filmmaker on the Right was convicted of a crime based on giving too much money to a political campaign.  He admitted he was wrong.  The Federal Judge involved in the case sentenced D’Souza not only to prison, he sentenced D’Souza to years of mental health counselling despite a licensed psychologist saying that D’Souza was just fine mentally.

So, yes.  Psychiatry is a political weapon.  It’s not like the Left has sentenced political opponents to chemotherapy, but I hear that they’re working on it.

commonsense.jpg

Yes, this is a common sense way to use psychiatry!

This corrupt branch of medicine is the background of the Red Flag Laws.

The idea is that we’ll create laws to remove rights from people without due process, with the presumption that individuals should lose a right guaranteed by the Constitution®.  A single accuser, with no evidence can result in gun confiscation to a law-abiding citizen.  Sadly this already happens – people with contested domestic restraining orders (a standard tactic in divorces nowadays) lose their rights, although I’ve heard of people fighting these orders and winning – at least there is a pretense at due process.

The claim that the ability to strip people of rights won’t be abused is laughable.  In every country that’s been infected by psychiatry, it has been twisted to meet political ends.  Yes, there are crazy people.  I’ve seen one as I related above.  And, if you did a brain scan, there is a physical basis for schizophrenia.  It’s real.  It is a medical condition.  But remember, these are the same psychiatrists that would diagnose me as nuts if I believed I was be five years older than I really am, but are perfectly fine with children younger than the age of five claiming they are a different sex than their genetics have made them.

Po-tay-to, Po-gender reassignment surgery for children is normal-to.

Furthermore, the medical profession as a whole is maybe a bit, well, mental*.  In one study it was claimed that 50% of female doctors could be diagnosed with a mental disease.  I wonder again why my ex didn’t take up medicine?  (*Aesop LINK excluded, unless pimp-slapping in the comments section is classified as a mental disorder.)

Oh, and psychologists have nearly the highest rates of suicide of any profession.  Yes, any profession, including the people who make balloon animals in Mauschwitz Disneyland® for chubby children with hands sticky from chocolate ice cream.  Perfectly stable.  And this is also the same profession whose international governing body (WPA) was just fine with political repression in the name of psychiatry.

Besides being oppressive, the Red Flag laws would not have helped in latest shootings – these people lawfully and legally got their rifles.  But they will form the basis for taking away guns for . . .

  • Conspiracy Theories – Believing anything other than the Official Narrative® will become a basis for exclusion of lawful firearms ownership, despite the fact that throughout history, many conspiracy theories have been proven true. Google® MKULTRA.    That happened.  But the FBI® is now warning that you are a danger if you don’t believe the Official Narrative©.
  • Antisocial Behavior – Ever not want to hang around people? You’re antisocial, and that’s dangerous, citizen.  No AR for you!
  • Websites Visited – Going to unapproved sites? Thinking unapproved thoughts?  Glockblock™!
  • Comments Made When You Were 16 – Wow, did you really say that maybe the Crusades weren’t all bad? No pew-pew for you, hater.
  • Not Believing in the Easter Bunny Socialism – Well, I think I covered that above.

The irony is this will have the impact of keeping people away from mental health professionals.  This will keep people from seeking help when they’re a little depressed, because the consequences of having a “health record” might prevent them from future opportunity – the only safe way to live life would be to stay away from health professionals – and not answer certain questions your M.D. might have for you with a polite BFYTW when asked why you’re not answering.  Oh, but that probably puts you on the antisocial list.

CATI.jpg

Texas may or may not be your cup of tea, but they certainly got some things right once upon a time.

Psychiatry is on pretty iffy ground in many cases already.  As an experiment, a group of doctors sent people to a psychiatrist with one symptom – they heard a voice.  No other symptom.  They were perfectly normal, mentally healthy people.  In one case, the person was committed to a mental health facility (as I recall) for several weeks with zero symptoms.  I tried to look it up, but, surprise, most Google® searches right now link commitment to . . . violence.  Even that’s not a comfortable thought.

guard.jpg

Soviet mental health nurse.  Not shown:  tenth guard, who is now an inmate.

The single scariest thing to me is watching a human mind erode – what was once a rational human disappears.  It’s what makes (to me) zombies scary.  They look like humans.  They used to be a normal human.  But that rational human being is now gone, replaced by someone who has no real tie to reality while the external form remains.

I realize that there is a time and a place for psychiatric care.

But psychiatrists are already owned by the Left.  The Left sees you as crazy already.  The Left views your dissent from their agenda as a mental disorder, one punishable by death, if need be.

alex.jpg

I’ll leave the last word to Alexander Solzhenitsyn, who is really pictured above while in the gulag:  “I’ll take Solzhenitsyn on Gun Control for $1000, Alex.  Oh, look – the Daily Double®!”

“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking:  what would things have been like if every security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family?  Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?  [They] would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt!  If . . . if . . . we didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation . . . .  We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”

Social Security Won’t Sink Us. But The Ship is Still Going Down.

“Here comes an overweight cat with dollar signs for eyes and a hat that says “Social Security” pouring a bucket that says “Alternative Minimum Tax” over a sad Statue of Liberty holding a “democracy” umbrella.” – Family Guy

jqp.jpg

There’s this joke I heard about Social Security, but no one will get it.

When I was in junior high, our history class ended up with a long-term substitute teacher, Miss Vargas, for over a month.  Most substitute teachers just handed out word-search puzzles where you tried to pick out names of conquistadors, Thanksgiving foods, conquered Mayans, and famous cats that belonged to the Mayflower Pilgrims.  Since Miss Vargas had us for weeks, however, she actually had to teach.  Thankfully, she had a lesson plan.

wordsearch.png

Not an original.  I could not resist.

She was a nice substitute teacher so our class didn’t beat up on her that much.  We could tell, however, that, whatever her degree was in, it wasn’t history.  Given the time and place I was going to school, it seemed like she was likely a chemically-damaged refugee from the 1960’s, and likely a former Leftist hippy.  Since we had caught her on some (rather) basic mistakes about American history, we weren’t shy about questioning the things she said.

vargas.jpg

Not to mention when Abraham Lincoln “freed the penguins, dude” after signing the Treaty of Ghent at Woodstock.  At least class was interesting.

The lesson (at some point) took us to the New Deal.  The format of the homework should be familiar to anyone who was in school when mimeographs were a thing (look it up).  There was a term, and then the student was supposed to write down the definition.  It was a fancy way to force eighth graders to learn to skim texts for key words written in bold.

mimeo2.jpg

But the smell . . .

One of the terms was Social Security.  I dutifully looked through the text until I found the boldface words Social Security.   In it was the definition that it was (more or less):  An insurance program founded to provide benefits to retired and disabled people.

The teacher, not feeling like grading the homework, decided to go through the definitions with us.  After Social Security she wrote on the board, A program created to redistribute wealth in the country.

With all of the righteous indignation an 8th grader who had fully consumed the Kool-Aid® of the Official Story™ of the Government-Approved© textbook, I proceeded to correct Miss Vargas.

She didn’t back down, and maintained that was the purpose.  Obviously, the event was significant enough that I still remember, and as I grew older I realized that, well, the burned-out hippy was right.  Social Security is a wealth redistribution scheme.  Heck, you can tell the program is socialist – it’s right there in the name.

The program was started in the depths of the Depression and rewarded those who hadn’t paid in with benefits they hadn’t earned.  I’d whine more, but that happened 80 years ago, so it’s like Madonna complaining about her virginity – that ship sailed a LONNNNNNNG time ago – nearly as long ago as when the Japanese bombed the Nina, the Pinta, and the Santa Maria at Pearl Harbor.  I know that you’re expecting that this is some sort of rant about how Social Security needs to be taken down because it’ll wreck the economy.  It isn’t a rant, and Social Security won’t wreck the economy.

According to the latest data I could find (there’s probably newer, but 2013 was close enough and I’m travelling) but an average couple, making an average wage paid in about $600,000 in Social Security taxes during their career and would receive roughly $600,000 in benefits – the system was in balance.  Of note, it’s kind of cute because the graphic assumed it was a man married to a woman and not an immigrant trans-porpoise which I understand is now required in California, as long as the porpoise signs a pledge to drive a Prius® and not to use straws.

Ahh, nostalgia for simpler times.

Social Security was roughly in balance in 2013, and could be put back into balance fairly easily with minimal effort, even though we’re facing a demographic bulge as the boomers retire.  As long as we can convince them all to take up chain smoking and they decide that anti-chemo is the new anti-vax, we’re fine.  Theoretically, there are the accumulated savings that Social Security has had during all of those years it was in surplus, but the reality is that all of those funds are just IOUs from Congress sitting in a filing cabinet in West Virginia in a converted National Guard Armory behind Buddy’s Chicken and Black Lung Shack®.  Doris has the key.

palace.jpg

It might look nice, but it still smells like the DMV and low motivation.

Yeah, the money going out of Social Security has already exceeded the money going in to Social Security, but it’s manageable.  A few tweaks to the tax, and a few tweaks to the benefit (two-for-one coupons at Burger King™ instead of money every other month) and it will work out.  Social Security, despite being a piggy bank continually raided by Congress for my entire life, won’t hurt us, at least not by itself.

That’s the good news.  I fully expect that if the only major obligations that the government had were defense, transgender reassignment surgery, and Social Security, we’d be fine.  Heck, even welfare for dachshunds that can’t find a job because of terrier privilege wouldn’t break us.  Even if Congress approved the Ocasio Cortez Guided Missile©, which is designed to approach every target from the Left, has a warhead that does nothing but make babbling sounds, and costs a billion dollars a missile, we’d be fine.

What will break us?

Medicare® and Medicaid™.

Those are the M&M®s that will crater our financial system.

From the 2013 data, the average couple could will pay in about $110,000 in taxes during their lifetime for Medicare, but will take out nearly $400,000 in benefits.  Where does that benefit come from?  I’d say our tax dollars, but let’s you and I be real – not one dime of deficit spending has ever come out of your pocket or mine directly in taxes.  It’s all borrowed into existence at this point.

gdpss.jpg

I was going to save this graph for Halloween, since it’s scarier than most zombie movies. 

From this projection, you can see that by 2024 Medicare plus Social Security will make up 12% or so of the GDP.  Add in 2% for Medicaid costs, and you’re up to 14% of the GDP.  Add in 4% for the projected interest payments due on the national debt, and that’s 18%, folks.  That leaves 2% at most for all of the rest of the spending on the economy before we run out of tax dollars.  But the rest of the spending (on things like defense) generally runs about 10% of GDP.  Through the magic of math, that means that we’ll need another 10% of GDP.  Just raise the taxes, right?

taxlimit.jpg

Even during the “90% tax rate” 1950’s, the proportion of the GDP taken in taxes wasn’t any higher than today and resulted in more loopholes than there are bacon-wrapped shrimp at a congressional lobbyist’s party.

That means the Federal government spending alone will consume 30% of the GDP, of which at least 10% will be deficit spending.  Given a projected GDP of $26 trillion in 2024, that is an annual deficit of $2.6 trillion.  The deficit this year is projected to be $1 trillion or so, which is more money than some people make in their entire lifetime, so imagine one 2.5 times larger.

Through some sort of magical incantation worthy of Houdini’s proctologist, money has been pulled out of somewhere (The Worst Economic Idea Since Socialism, Explained Using Bikini Girl Graphs) and hasn’t created massive inflation.  Yet.  I guess that in Zimbabwe they managed to just print money like we’re doing now to get out of the problem.

drevil.jpg

See, you too can be a trillionaire!

So, in the end, Miss Vargas was right.  Social Security was the start of a program that will do a great job of income redistribution, from a wealthy and prosperous society, to a society where everyone can be a trillionaire, and a good nickel cigar only costs a few hundred billion dollars.

trillionusa.jpg

Thankfully Lincoln posed for this after getting back from Woodstock and before he retired to Gettysburg to make movies with George Lucas.

China – What’s the deal?

“What does that mean?  ‘China is here.’  I don’t even know what the hell that means.” – Big Trouble in Little China

democrats.jpg

Had enough Mongols?  This is how you avoid Mongols, unless the 9th Circuit says you have to let them in.

I’ve had my eye on China for quite a while.  It knows why.

Anyway, China has in the past 50 years transformed itself from an example of the nation your parents warned you about:  “See, eat your peas and study hard, you don’t want to be like China,” to a country competing for prime representation in the International House of Pancakes®.  Okay, I made that up.  I don’t even know if they have Frosted Flakes™ in China, let alone pancakes©.

For four thousand years, China looked inward.  Only conquered twice, by the Mongols and by the Manchu, the 20th Century was a succession of weak leaders until the communist takeover at the hands of Mao Zedong.  Mao seemed content to play with the Chinese people and the Chinese economy like a Doberman’s chew toy until his death in the 1970’s.

lmao.jpg

AOC will never be a doctor – she’s committing political Mao-practice.

Mao’s successor, Deng Xiaoping, looked around at the huge Doberman spit-covered collectivist mess left by communism, and decided that something had to change.  After visiting the United States, he decided that China needed way to get convenient chocolate milkshakes like that one Jimmy Carter got him at McDonalds®, and began reforming the economy based around market lines.  You know, capitalism.

Capitalism worked amazingly well at saving a communist economy.  Shocker!

The collective ingenuity of over a billion Chinese coupled with capitalist incentives and totalitarian controls has led to growth.  The economy of China in 2019 is 91 times larger than it was in 1978 when Deng’s reforms began.  Some before and after pictures become relevant at this point:

progress.jpg

Okay, I’m exaggerating.  But not by much.

What China has effectively done is make its citizens nearly 100 times richer since Star Wars® first came out.  Perhaps more impressive is the amount of expertise that has been imported to China.  By making first cheap junk in the 1980’s to radar detectors in the 1990’s to iPods® in the early 00’s to iPhones™ today, China has imported not only the technical know-how of cutting edge technology is design, it understands better than any other country in the world on how to build most things.

prime.jpg

See, I told you I wasn’t exaggerating much.  Two day shipping really changed their lives.

An engineer in California (who may or may not even be an American) designs the iPhone©.  In China, they figure out how to build it.  That know-how isn’t in a manual, it’s built up in thousands of mistakes that require solutions to produce a finished product.  All of those solutions are known by the workers and engineers in the factory, and used to make production lines that much faster.

In this way, China has traded lots of cell phones for zillions of dollars that we just printed up out of thin air, sure, but it’s also trained itself on how to be an industrial superpower.

Industrial.  But what about military?

No.  China has seen our military and has no ambition that it can in the near future compete with American military power.  Unlike the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the United States Congress, China has no desire to fight World War II again.  While the United States has fought in numerous conflicts in the last fifty years, China has fought in exactly one, an incursion into Vietnam back before Reagan was president.  The Chinese make the Italians look like Patton with Pizza.

cseg.jpg

So, rumor is that they also have a tricycle attack brigade, but they were at nap time.

If I were Chinese President Xi Jinping, I would have no illusions about my military.  Even if it fielded better tanks and planes than the United States, it still would come up short because outside of games of Call of Duty®, the Chinese military has no experience.

Instead:  “China will use a host of methods, many of which lie out of the realm of conventional warfare. These methods include trade warfare, financial warfare, ecological warfare, psychological warfare, smuggling warfare, media warfare, drug warfare, network warfare, technological warfare, fabrication warfare, resources warfare, economic aid warfare, cultural warfare, and international law warfare…” (United States Army Special Operations Command, 2014)

In particular, China has focused on trade.  In the last five years, China has started an international cooperation scheme called the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  This has led to (so far) agreements with over 68 countries.  The stated objective of BRI is that it is meant to produce closer ties and stronger trading arrangements between China and the rest of the world.

stuff.jpg

See, need some place to keep my stuff – Mom’s basement is full.

BRI consists of at least a trillion dollars of planned Chinese spending, and by spending, I mean loans.  China will loan countries money to develop infrastructure – pipelines, roads, harbors, PEZ® mines, railroads, industrial parks, electric power grids, and airports to better move people and goods throughout the world.  Certainly China won’t take advantage of the loan conditions if a country has trouble repaying it?

Actually, so far not really.  In only one case has China seized assets, and the rest of them it has either renegotiated debt payments or forgiven them entirely.

So what is China doing?

It came to me one night while I was thinking about the blog and just drifting off to sleep.  Thinking about this like a banker looking to gain leverage wasn’t the right framework.  China isn’t building this trading network to compete with the United States.  China is building this framework for life without the United States.  BRI replaces our markets, and replaces what we’re shipping to them.  But there’s more.

When you look at what China has, it is people, industrial capacity, and ingenuity.  China needs raw materials.  It’s short on food.  It needs oil.  By making inroads into Africa, China has started new mines, run by Chinese administrators and Chinese miners.  China has built, using Chinese laborers and Chinese steel, new railroads in Kenya.

And all of this BRI stuff isn’t paid for in dollars.  China has seen that the United States has managed to pay for debt in dollars it printed.  If China can be the dominant country, it can pay for things in Kenya with Chinese money printed by China itself, rather than have to make iPhones® and send them to iNdiana© in exchange for dollars.

Perhaps it’s just the economy of the United States that China expects will be gone?

Beyond that, closer economic ties with a country that could dominate your economy certainly isn’t dangerous, is it?  They’d never use their influence to change your laws, or influence your movies, right?

redprop.jpg

Set from the 2010 remake of Red Dawn before China demanded they not be the villain.   Hmmm.

Belt and Road graphic (pre-meme) By Owennson – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=78386561

Bikini Economics, Guns, and the Problem with Free Stuff

“Good job, isn’t it? Type something will ya, we’re paying for this stuff.” – Ghostbusters

ddd.png

I like guns.  And butter.  Especially cocoa butter.  Admit it – you’ve never enjoyed economics more.

Economics means choices.

One choice presented by Marxist economics professors to hung-over sophomores in college is between “guns or butter.”  This is a classic economic model.  In it, a choice is presented:  produce guns for defense, or food for the people, or another shot of Jägermeister© before Calc 201.  I added the Jägermeister® for the sophomores.  No one should have to learn 3-space vector calculus sober.

The idea is that there is some balance where government can feed people just enough so that they can make guns for beautiful Marxist bikini soldiers to take over the world with love and kindness and AK-47s.  In this fable, once the world chooses peace (that means Marxism), guns will no longer be produced and the glorious workers will now luxuriate in a worker’s paradise.

These are the deep thoughts of a dimwitted socialist like Kamala Harris, or of an overly caring 11 year-old who is earnestly trying to solve the world’s problems.  But I repeat myself.

skank.jpg

Don’t be mean to Kamala.  She already enough difficulty explaining to her husband why she’s in the top results for “slept her way to the top” on a Google® image search (this is true).

Just because Marxists were wrong about economics doesn’t mean that economies that there aren’t economic choices to make.  There are.  The biggest actual economic choice to make is whether to spend the output of that economy on building additional productive capacity or on Free Stuff.

Building additional production is investment in the economy.  Sure, Leftists like to use “investment” as just another word for Free Stuff, but investment, by definition, produces a return.  In the case of investment in an economy, after the investment is done the economy produces more than it did before.  Instead of dividing a finite economic pie between guns or butter, the genius of investment is that it creates a bigger pie for everyone.  By definition, that’s a win, because it also means more guns for everyone!

butt.jpg

There is a time to tell the truth, and a time to lie.  If she’s holding an AK, it’s time to lie.

This was self-evident in Western Civilization during the Cold War.  We picked the strategy that we invest in our economies so that they became larger, and we’d defeat Communism by out producing them.  In order to do that, we increased freedom of the free market so that instead of handfuls of production bureaucrats and commissars guessing what should be produced, millions of free people experimenting in an open economy would make that choice.  The winners were selected by the market, and even when things like the Hula-Hoop® or Justin Bieber became wildly popular, industrial capacity was increased all across Western Civilization (and Japan, which had largely adopted all of the winning parts of Western Civilization).

saturn.jpg

I would try to Hula Hoop©, but last time the neighbor called an ambulance because they thought I was having a seizure.

We allowed this to guide our military spending, too.  Multiple companies competed to produce new jet fighters that were more capable, missiles that were more accurate.  The technical prowess of the military came not from a top-down dictate, but from the companies competing to produce better defense products.  Sure, some of them were horrible, but most of our equipment and doctrine was better than the Soviet stuff.  How much better?  Ask Saddam Hussein.

As the focus of our economy was growth, the economy grew.  How big did it grow?  It grew to the point where Reagan could consciously bankrupt the entire guns and butter Soviet economy through pretending that the Star Wars™ missile defense was going to make intercontinental ballistic missiles obsolete.  The economy of Western Civilization was such a potent weapon because it harnessed the ingenuity of everyone through capitalist incentives and rewards.  The system of capitalism was so obviously successful that China®, Inc. decided to copy it for their economy and get rid of the silly Maoist collectivism.  Keep in mind, capitalism does not mean freedom.

Economies still have limits.  There’s a maximum amount of “stuff” that the economy can produce, and certainly there’s a limit based on sheer physics, if nothing else, though we’ve yet to see it.  The real choice isn’t guns or butter, it’s investment versus Free Stuff.  It used to be that money mattered, but that was in the time before Modern Monetary Theory (The Worst Economic Idea Since Socialism, Explained Using Bikini Girl Graphs) fans tossed bottles of Jägermeister© into Congress and told ‘em to spend as much as they wanted.

hugo.jpg

If Venezuela had a dollar for every time giving out Free Stuff worked, they’d have zero dollars.  Oh, that’s exactly what Venezuela has.  Never mind.

What Free Stuff do the Leftists want to toss out?

  • “Free” Healthcare – for everyone. Including illegal aliens.  You might think that they don’t give it away now – they do.  A pregnant illegal alien show ups to have a baby?  You get to pay for that right now.  I guess the good news is you don’t have to change it’s diaper.
  • “Free” Daycare – for everyone. Why?  Because who could be better at raising your children than the state.  They do such a good job at the DMV.
  • “Free” College – for everyone.  That kid that sat behind you with his finger up his nose, who talked about how he wanted to ride a tyrannosaurus on Mars?  When he was a senior in high school?  Yeah, he gets free college, too.  Although riding a tyrannosaurus on Mars does sound cool.
  • “Free” Income – for everyone.  Why not give everyone $1000 a month for free.  It won’t distort the economy at all.
  • “Free” Reparations – not for everyone. People who were never slaves would get paid by people who never had slaves, for the sin of slavery.  Makes about as much sense as the rest of this list.
  • “Free” Housing – just not in the gated communities where Congressmen live.

Oh, and don’t forget regulations, since regulations is another way to give Free Stuff.  They take freedom from the economy and create winners and losers.  The Green New Deal is an example of this – the idea of the Green New Deal has nothing to do with the environment – it’s all about creating a socialist economy.  In the words of AOC’s advisor:  “Do you guys think of it as a climate thing?” Saikat Chakrabarti asked. “Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.”

Regulations are used to change the economy.

green.jpg

Take a look at all of the innovation spawned by Communism!

At some point Free Stuff will grow to encompass the entire economy leaving nothing for productive growth.  Ever notice that every Communist economy freezes at the technology level (outside of military technology) that existed when it went Commie?  Cuba is a great example, what with all of the vintage 50’s Ford® and Chevy© rust buckets and fine Soviet cars they have on the streets.  If only they would have waited until the 1970’s to go Communist they could have had Ford© Pintos™.  That would have made driving exciting!

The same thing happened in Venezuela.  PDVSA was a very profitable oil company before Hugo Chavez gutted it to provide Free Stuff to the Venezuelan people.  Now?  PDVSA is deeply in debt and incapable of producing as much oil as it did in 1998, despite having 77.5 billion barrels of reserves.

Yeah.  Free Stuff can make a country bankrupt.

The nice thing about this concept is that it also applies to individuals.  Every day each of us has a choice:  do we work to make ourselves better, or do we goof off?  The choice is an important one.

Do you invest time in increasing your capabilities every day?  Do your work to make yourself better?  I mean, really work?  Take Steve Martin’s advice – “Be so good they can’t ignore you.”  (“Be so good they can’t ignore you.”-Steve Martin Plus? A sniper joke.)

You have the choice.  And time is running out.  And I’m certain you can’t afford Free Stuff.

Sushi, Strippers, ATMs, Sears and Me

“Let’s go get sushi and not pay.” – Repo Man (1984)

catsushi.jpg

I prefer my 7-11® sushi with a side of WD-40® and a banana-bacon-shrimp Slurpee©.  Nothing says great sushi like sushi bought at a store where you can get gasoline and lottery tickets!

On Sunday afternoon I was finishing up work on the last post (The Bridge on the River Kwai Moment), and sitting at the dining room table with The Mrs., enjoying air conditioning and some coffee.  The Boy and Pugsley had hatched a cunning scheme whereby they were going to go into town to buy food, probably 7-11™ sushi.  Yes, I know, but when you live in Modern Mayberry sometimes 7-11© sushi is the only sushi if Wal-Mart® sushi is sold out again.

I assumed the position of the First Bank of Dadâ„¢, and rummaged through my wallet for cash.  Looking, I had a ludicrous number of single dollar bills – $16 in ones.  “Okay, guys, hope you don’t mind ones.  Here is $15 in ones, and a $10 and a $5.  That should keep you in raw fish and botulism.”

Pugsley laughed, “It’s like Dad went to a strip club and got too many ones from the ATM!”

The Boy stopped and immediately defended my honor, “What are you talking about?  Dad would never, ever . . . go to an ATM.”

That’s a direct quote.  Thanks, pal.

poledance.jpg

I think if I were going to be a stripper, I think I would use the name Brax Thünderhyde, and dress as a construction worker.  Probably a building inspector – they’re sexy, right?  I hear chicks did clipboards.

This really happened, nearly word for word.  The Mrs. immediately started laughing, as did I.  I hadn’t been to an ATM since college, when I determined that an ATM was just a hole in your bank account that your money leaked out of.  When I was about 20, I found out through bitter experience that either I didn’t have enough money, discipline, or intelligence to have an ATM card, so I cut it up.  My life has been far better since then.  So, yes, The Boy was right, I’ve been to a strip club more recently than I’ve been to an ATM.

The ATM card was my first exposure to the concept that banks were certainly not on my side – I wasn’t their friend, I was simply a way for them to get fees.  ATM cards were a way to charge me to get my own money – I’d pay a $1 fee for $100 in cash.  That’s an immediate 1% for the privilege of using my own money, on those rare occasions that I had $100.  In the far more realistic case that I was pulling out $20, it was the same fee for $20, so that’s a 5% fee.  The good thing is that I could also check my balance at the ATM.

I was in college and could do calculus, but I certainly wasn’t smart enough to do basic subtraction.  Take $21 out of your account too many times?  End up with negative numbers in your bank account.  That led to the really fun set of fees – charges for having less than zero money.  Like the lottery, bank fees are a tax on bad math and poor impulse control.

After I had to pay overdraft fees the second time, I cut up the ATM card.  If it was Friday and I needed cash for the weekend?  I’d go down to the bank and cash a check.  That was it.  You can’t use an ATM machine if you don’t have a card.  This had two good effects – I had to plan how much I was going to spend on Coors Light® for the weekend, but, once I ran out of money, I had to stop spending.  No choice, no poor willpower.  I had to stop.  And if I had to check my balance without an ATM?  I could have a friend shove me really hard.

monkey.jpg

But dumping the ATM card was a good one.

I haven’t had an ATM card (or even a debit card) since then, and don’t think I’ve paid a fee to a bank for anything other than mortgage interest in almost two decades.  I learned a big lesson from using an ATM: to the bank, I was the commodity.  I was nothing more than ATM transaction fees and overdraft fees.  My bad math paid their salaries.

That realization made me look around and observe how other companies viewed me.  I realized that entire businesses have been built around using consumers as commodities.  In the 1990’s Sears® attempted to get every financial dollar conceivable out of a consumer short of turning them upside down and shaking them to see if any singles were left over from the strip club would fall out.  How did Sears do this?

  • You could buy your clothing, hardware, crib, bed, refrigerator and lawnmower at Sears®.
  • You could also get your auto and homeowners insurance from Allstate©, which was owned by Sears®.
  • You could buy your house from Coldwell Banker Real Estate©, also owned by Sears®.
  • You could invest your spare cash with your broker at Dean Witterâ„¢, also owned by Sears®.
  • And anything you didn’t buy at Sears®, like Coors Light®? You could charge everything else with your Discover© Card – also owned by . . . Sears®.

When (in the late 1990’s) I realized that Sears® at one point or another owned all of those companies, it became clear to me that Sears® was attempting to get a piece of every dollar that I could spend that wasn’t given to directly to a mortgage lender.  They then sold off these businesses, and have been very successful since then:

searsend.jpg

I kid.  Sears® remains every bit as relevant today as fax machines and slide projectors.

It was around the same time that I first heard the word “monetize.”  Taken literally, it means, “make into money,” and an example is what the Clintons did with the presidency and Jeff Bezos’ girlfriend did with Jeff.

But back to me.  It was the late 1990’s and a friend of mine had moved into the financial side of the business we were working at.  She mentioned that they were going to “monetize” the Werewolf Repellent® that our company made by selling it while it was still in our warehouses, and then lease the warehouse out to somebody else and rent back the space from the people we leased the warehouse from to store the Werewolf Repellent™ that we’d (by then) sold to someone else.  Our salesmen would (eventually) sell the Werewolf Repellent© to yet a different person, but the money would go to the person who now owned it with a cut to the person leasing our warehouse from us.  It was a way to make money without having to actually sell anything to a pesky consumer.

To me, the scheme seemed unnecessarily complicated, like trying to play a trombone using a vacuum cleaner, a live chicken, a brick, and a purple condom.  It was explained to me that this was a way that our Werewolf Repellent© could make money for us even when it was sitting in our own warehouse not repelling even a single werewolf.  I think they gave up on the idea when they found that the only money we were making from the scheme was due to accounting irregularities and by saving aluminum cans from the employee lounge.

When she was describing the scheme, I nodded and mumbled “okay” and pretended like I understood what she was talking about, even though I still didn’t get it.  But it did spark another thought.  If we could monetize our Werewolf Repellent© that was just sitting in a warehouse, then what was Sears® doing?  It was pretty simple.  They were attempting to monetize me.  I now had a word for it.

Capitalism works best when people look for ways to create better service for you so that you will give them your money.  This is the power of capitalism – people competing to make you happy.  This provides a springboard for innovation.  It provides a reason for people you’ve never met to cooperate with you to allow both of you to meet your goals.

socialism.jpg

And I hear that their diet plan works great, too!

A rule of economics is that the more indirectly you do something, the easier it is.  If you had a rock to break, you could hit it with another rock until it broke.  It’s the simplest way, but it’s also the hardest.  You could get a steel hammer to break the rock, but now you need find iron ore and make the steel and form it into a hammer.  Much more efficient, but much more indirect.  Heck, you could create an entire chemical laboratory and make explosives, and taking your hammer and a steel chisel and put a hole in the rock, and then blow it up.  That’s the easiest, but it is the most indirect method yet.

Just like my bank tried to do when they created the ATM, the coming trend is to monetize cash.  It’s harder to remember to go to the bank on Friday to get cash than to get cash, anywhere, at any time.  From the standpoint of Wall Street, cash sucks.  If I want to go buy a six pack of crotch weasels and I use cash, the only people getting a cut are the crotch weasel store and the government – crotch weasel sales are taxable in Midwestia.  Governments have this monetization thing down.

Don’t get me wrong, there are a lot of products I’d miss, if they disappeared tomorrow, but monetization is also control.

  • Appetite: grow your own versus a buying food at a supermarket
  • Money: cash versus a credit card. Every credit card requires fees.
  • Emotion: Twitter® versus not being irritated at everyone.
  • Envy: Facebook© versus just being happy being you.
  • Attention: Netflixâ„¢ versus a book or this fine blog.
  • Lust: Ruffles®.  You know you want some.

murphy.jpg

Okay, that might be an extreme solution.

Don’t think monetization is control?  What about EBT cards?  Legislators have even figured out how to give banks a share by monetizing poverty.  What happens if the EBT cards shut down?  Yup.  Monetization is control.  Ben Hunt has a good post (LINK) on how Facebook® is attempting to monetize money yet again to destroy cash (and Bitcoin) and give governments complete surveillance of every financial transaction – and Hunt thinks that it just might work.  (H/T Remus, at the Woodpile Report (LINK) – if you’re not reading the Woodpile Report – you’re missing out.)

If monetization is control, that means that if it can be monetized, it can be weaponized.

  • Stop the food – without a farm, you’re hungry.
  • Deny you credit, cancel your card – you’re not able to rent a hotel room.

Okay, the world would likely be better off without Twitter©, Facebook™, and Netflix® (you’ll pry the Ruffles© from my cold, dead fingers) but what would we do with our time?

Go to strip clubs?  I know you’re certainly not going to catch me near any ATMs . . . .

toystory.jpg

The Bridge on the River Kwai Moment

“We can teach these barbarians a lesson in Western methods and efficiency that will put them to shame.  We’ll show them what the British soldier is capable of doing.” – The Bridge on the River Kwai

dauntless.jpg

Air combat in the Pacific as taught by public schools in 2019.

The Mrs. and I were discussing politics, and she tossed out an interesting question:

The Mrs.:  “Is the Left going to have a Bridge on the River Kwai moment?”

I thought that was a great question, but it requires some backstory.

It was a condition of my proposal to The Miss that if she wanted to become The Mrs., that she’d have to watch several movies that dripped with toxic masculinity and testosterone.  Patton, Zulu, The Man Who Would Be King, and any movie involving Clint Eastwood were required watching (among others).

The Mrs. said she’d seen most of the Eastwood movies already.  The Mrs. hadn’t seen Hang ‘em High, so we watched that in the hotel on our honeymoon.  Most of it.  Okay, parts of it.

kamikaze.jpg

Okay, I promise these will make sense in a few paragraphs.

The Bridge on the River Kwai was included in that list of “must watch” movies.  I decided to re-watch it last week after I started to write this post.  I wrangled Pugsley into watching it with me.  Pugsley’s a teen now, and the movie is a pretty powerful one that he’d never seen.  As the movie opened to the scene of dense jungle, Pugsley asked, “What’s this (movie) about?”

John Wilder:  “Well, it’s about a World War II prisoner of war camp . . .”

Pugsley:  “No, you mean Vietnam.”  He gestured at the jungle.  Vietnam occurred 50 years ago.  World War II was 75 years ago.  To a teen?  It’s all ancient history.  Heck, Star Wars™ debuted 32 years after World War II ended.  It’s now been 42 years since Star Wars© came out.  Star Wars® is closer in time to World War II than we are to the opening night of Star Wars™.  Feeling old?

John Wilder:  “You do realize that we fought in the Pacific as well as in Europe in World War II?”

Pugsley:  “Oh.” He looked doubtful, like he thought my mind was slipping, but let it pass.

To a teen in 2019, WWII is as far in the past as a world without flight was when I was a teen.  Growing up I knew all about the kill ratio of the Phantom F-4 vs. the MiG in Vietnam, but next to nothing about World War I aviation other than Germans pilots apparently ate a lot of pizza:

redbaron.jpg

Notice that he’s smoking.  I’m sure that’s what killed him – I’ve been told those cigarettes are dangerous!

The Bridge on the River Kwai is a 1957 movie about Vietnam World War II.  In it, a group of mainly British prisoners of war are in a camp in the Burmese jungle.  As in real life, these soldiers were being forced by the Japanese to build a railroad so that the Japanese could have better logistics resupplying their troops in Burma.

The movie focuses around a particular bridge that needs to be completed in order to finish the railroad on time.  Never since the pyramids were built has civil engineering been so exciting and sexy:  piling depths, soil bearing capacity, number of cubic yards of dirt moved, surveying . . . riveting!  Okay, no rivets since they were making the bridge out of wood.

In the opening scene a British colonel marches in to camp with his officers and soldiers, after being ordered to surrender in Singapore.  The Japanese colonel and the British colonel engage in a battle of will.  Since the actor playing the British colonel is the same actor that played Obi Wan Kenobi™ in Star Wars®, obviously not long into the movie the Japanese colonel’s will is crushed.

colobiwan.jpg

Colonel Kenobi:  “These aren’t the troops you’re looking for.”  Photoshop credit:  The Boy.

Soon, the British colonel is directing his men to perform higher quotas of work than the Japanese had set for them.  In order to show the Japanese how Englishmen act, Colonel Kenobi demands that his men not sabotage the bridge, but do proper, quality work.  Not long after Colonel Kenobi arrives, an American barely escapes.  The actor that played the American wasn’t in Star Wars©, so I have no idea if he could use the force.

Arriving at a rear base in India, the American is encouraged to join a commando group that will destroy the bridge over the Kwai.  And, by encouraged I mean not “volunteered” but “voluntold.”   My kids are voluntold about a lot of things, but I have never sent them to blow up a Japanese bridge in Burma.  Maybe next summer, since they haven’t successfully completed mowing my lawn yet this summer.  Baby steps.

The commandos, including the American who wasn’t in Star Wars© make it to the bridge and plant explosives.  In order to add a ticking clock – they are going to blow up the bridge just as a trainload of high-ranking Japanese officials are using the train to go to the Japanese Death Star®.

saipan.jpg

See, I told you they would make sense.

As the train is approaching, Colonel Kenobi sees the electrical cord hooked up to the bridge – the other part is hooked to a Looney Tunes®-style detonator that is out of sight.  Oops.  Colonel Kenobi and the Japanese colonel go to investigate.  When the colonels get close to the detonator, a young commando kills the Japanese colonel.  Colonel Kenobi then yells for help.  To the Japanese troops.

***SPOILER ALERT ON A 62 YEAR OLD MOVIE***

After the young commando is killed by the Japanese, who have much better aim than Stormtroopers™, the American, who is across the river, attempts to swim and detonate the explosives.  The American is shot, but as the American is dying, Colonel Kenobi recognizes him as the escaped prisoner from earlier in the movie.  Colonel Kenobi is jolted back, and looks at the bodies of the two officers that are on the same side as he is that died because of his actions . . . his actions to save “his” bridge.

Oops.

In a moment of clarity, he says the four most important words of the movie:  “What have I done?”

This is the payoff for the whole movie.  And it’s worth it – the only thing missing is a coyote chasing a road runner with a detonator that old . . .

That is The Bridge on the River Kwai moment, when the Colonel realized that, stuck in following procedure, in sticking to rules, and in demonstrating what a proper man he was, he got people on his own side killed.  Plus, he built a really great bridge for the Japanese.  Colonel Kenobi had been in service to his enemy.

Thankfully, as he was dying, he fell on the detonator, blowing up the bridge right on time.

fourwords.jpg

It’s a shame that they changed this line, since it would have been a great reminder to people vacationing to remember to take their swimsuits.  Such an emotional impact and such practical advice!

Victor Davis Hanson (always a good read) describes the end result of politics in California, once the most prosperous state in any union (LINK):

What caused this lunacy?

A polarity of importing massive poverty from south of the border while pandering to those who control unprecedented wealth in Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the tourism industry, and the marquee universities. Massive green regulations and boutique zoning, soaring taxes, increasing crime, identity politics and tribalism, and radical one-party progressive government were force multipliers. It is common to blame California Republicans for their own demise. They have much to account for, but in some sense, the state simply deported conservative voters and imported their left-wing replacements

Where California goes, America generally follows.

When presidential candidates on the Left:

  • actively support giving healthcare to those in the country illegally,
  • make it impossible to secure the border,
  • make it impossible to quickly and safely deport those who are here illegally, and
  • support requiring American citizens to pay for all of this,

I wonder if they will ever have their Bridge on the River Kwai moment.

iwo.jpg

This particular kamikaze plane flew six missions.

When those “Conservatives” support:

  • unlimited globalism to export American technology and know-how,
  • importation of cheap labor versus using American labor via H-1B visas,
  • following every rule of etiquette set by the Left (that the Left doesn’t follow), and
  • rolling back each of our freedoms, but just a little slower than the left wants to.

I wonder if they will ever have their Bridge on the River Kwai moment.  Did John McCain, on his deathbed, think, “What have I done?”  I don’t think so.

How much of the foundation of this country has to crumble before Left and “Conservatives” realize what they’ve done to undermine the United States, which may be the last, best hope of Western Civilization?  Do they care, or will they sell the country for two or six more years in power?

Never mind all that, an Eastwood movie is on.  Haven’t seen Hang ‘em High or The Unforgiven in a while.

The Funniest Post You’ll Ever Read About 401k’s.

“When I turned 14, I took fiduciary responsibility for my mother’s 401K.  We discussed it over Italian food.  I had my first espresso, it kept me up all night.  I fell asleep at dawn for five minutes and had a stress dream about the house burning down.  Pretty good birthday.” – American Dad

ao1k.jpg

The ear bud is playing a tape that says – in/out, in/out, so she doesn’t forget to breathe.

I was driving with The Boy back to Stately Wilder Manor on the way back from a fast food restaurant where he had consumed 3,000 calories out of his 10,000 daily calorie requirement.  That’s one thing I miss – I was the same when I was his age, but now if I look sideways at a bag of Ruffles® the button on my jeans has a high chance of becoming a weapon outlawed in California due to velocity alone.  Soon enough there’ll be a waiting period for Chips Ahoy™.

Out of nowhere, The Boy asked, “Why on Earth would anyone have a 401K?”

I’m used to random questions by The Boy at any point in any conversation.  In the middle of discussing the economics of a thorium-based fusion reactor, he’ll pipe up and ask, “Do you think fish ever get tired of eating seafood?  Oh, and what if we fed tuna mayonnaise, would that skip a step?”  Bonus points if you can identify the two movies those questions came from without using the Internet.  As The Boy is getting ready to go off to college, I suppose it makes sense.

First you get the khakis, then you get the job, then you get the girl, then the mortgage, then the divorce because your wife doesn’t agree that PCs are better than Apple© products and then you retire bitter and alone.  So you might need a 401k.

See, The Boy gets the “thinking too far ahead” thing from me.

first day.jpg

Admit it – this wasn’t just me.

I realized that it would be a fair topic for a Wednesday post, and probably a moderately fun one, too.  If you have a 401k, or are retired, I know that you’re thinking, “Why would I want to read about a 401k, anyway?”  Because it will be funny.  I promise – I’m a trained Professional Humorist and Certified Duck Yodeler.  You’re professional when people pay you to stop doing something, right?

401k’s aren’t taught in school, probably because no one would be listening, which still doesn’t explain why they have Band.  The advantage of being 16 is that you are immortal, and your entire lifetime is spread out before you.  A 401k?  Might as well spend time teaching about the best types of denture adhesive or why candy bars don’t cost a dime anymore.

But you’re not 16 anymore, at least not according to your FBI profile, so I can keep discussing 401ks without your mind wandering.  At least too much.

There are basically three types of retirement plans:

  • Have Very Wealthy Parents
  • Be a Part of a Defined Benefit Plan
  • Contribute to a Defined Contribution Plan

I prefer the first option, as should you.  Sadly, my parents were only of the “comfortably well off” sort rather than “mind numbingly” wealthy.  They selfishly managed to spend all of their money on themselves doing things that they liked.  All they left me with was years of love, encouragement, good advice, help with a college education, wonderful memories, and times just tough enough to build the character I needed.  They were awful.

Okay if your parents were losers like mine, you have to pay attention to the other options:

A Defined Benefit plan is something that, if you’re working in the United States, you’re already in.  Social Security is such a plan.  You contribute 7.5% of your income, which is matched with another 7.5% by your employer.  Then, Congress spends it on worthless programs meant only to enrich the people that vote for them and on bacon-wrapped shrimp.  Because who doesn’t like bacon-wrapped shrimp?

Thankfully, eventually if you live to age 107, you’ll receive enough money back from Social Security to subsist entirely on a diet of dog food and sawdust you gather from nearby construction sites.  And the dry dog food, not the wet – what do you think we are, the Bill Gates’ family?

Other examples of Defined Benefit plans are pensions and stealing office supplies from your employer.  I would discuss pensions, but unless you work for the government, pensions are as relevant as discussing attacks by a roving band of tyrannosaurus rex – it’s not going to happen in your lifetime.  If you work for the government, pensions are a never ending fountain of chocolate-covered strawberries that I also get to pay for.

The reason pensions became as rare as decent Stephen King novels after he quit cocaine and were phased out by most businesses is that the 401k, a Defined Contribution plan, appeared in the 1980’s.  With a 401k, a business can safely contribute just once to the employee, and then forget about them forever, making them even more disposable.  Eventually they’ll figure out how to make employees “single use” like a Keurig® coffee brewer but they’ll have to worry about the hole they’ll need to pop into your head – oh, wait, that’s Facebook®.  The biggest advantage for a business is if the employee decides to invest all of their 401k money in pantyhose and elephant rides it doesn’t matter to the business.  Once they match your contribution, they’re done.

But having a 401k is a choice, and I have one.  Why?

First and foremost, my employer matches my contributions.  I contribute 6% of my pay, and my employer contributes 3% on top of my current salary.  In my case, it’s like a 3% pay raise.  And these are pre-tax dollars.  Every dollar I put in my 401k lowers the amount of taxes that I have to pay right now, plus I get a free 50% of what I save invested.  I like that.

retire.jpg

Okay, mine are paid off.  I paid them off in 2013 – I paid payments ahead, but I kept a balance until December 2012 was over, just in case the Mayans were right.  That’s one way to stick it to the man.

When I invest in the various funds that my employer has to offer, then the amounts in my account grow tax free until I begin to pull money out.  At that point, I then have to pay taxes on the money I take out of the account for The Mrs. so she can selfishly spend it on insulin.

But there are downsides or risks to having a 401k as well.

  • There are a limited number of plans. What if I really want to invest in dirigible manufacturers instead of Apple®?  I’m sure dirigibles are coming back this year – rumor has it they’re going up.
  • A 401k is another way for Wall Street to monetize your life, which will probably be the focus of next Wednesday’s post. And we know Wall Street has your best interests at heart, right?
  • What will future tax rates be? When I begin to take money I believe that I won’t be paying as high a tax rate as today.  But I could be wrong.  I’ve just been itching to pay for health care for illegal aliens, so, there’s no telling.
  • A 401k is easy for government to confiscate: it would take exactly one law and some politicians have even discussed the idea.  Why should those that save their money be entitled to any of it?  Selfish, like my parents.
  • What will the market performance be? For my lifetime, the market has gone up and down, like Oprah©’s weight.  But it’s mainly stayed up.  Also like Oprah®’s weight.  Or dirigibles, which are kind of Oprah™ shaped.
  • What will inflation be? Will we become Zimbabwe with a nuclear arsenal and a better navy?
  • Perhaps one of the scariest comments I’ve seen with respect from this came from Arthur Sido (LINK) (I’m paraphrasing): “Your money will become worthless while benefits to those on welfare will increase.”  Well, I guess that’s one good way to achieve the goals of communism!

commies.png

I love it when Communists prove that it works this time.

But when I look at all of the risks above, I realize that I’m exposed to them already unless I completely invest in the three precious metals – gold, silver, and lead.

myprecious.jpg

My 401k doesn’t seem to accept .223 or 7.62 as a valid investment. 

One other advantage of the 401k is that it adds a significant amount of financial stability.  Most 401k plans allow you to borrow against them.  Financial advisors don’t like this, because they’d much rather you pay interest to a bank with headquarters in New York rather than yourself.  Also, sometimes you can’t add more money to a 401k after you’ve borrowed money against it.

A loan against my 401k has been useful to me on one particular occasion.  After my first wife She Who Will Not Be Named moved out she handed me a grocery sack filled with bills.  She then handed me a checkbook.  “I have no idea how much money is in the account.”  And then she walked out.

My loan from my 401k paid for the late payments.  Barely.  That experience allowed me to be able to answer this important question:

Why are divorces expensive?  They’re worth it.

saul.jpg

I shouldn’t complain, my divorce was better than most.  I just wish she hadn’t gotten my hair in the settlement.

The downside of a 401k loan is that you have to pay it back immediately if you leave that job.  If not?  The money becomes taxable that year – plus a 10% penalty tax is added on.

Now The Boy wonders if he can feed the 10% penalty to fish.  Go figure.

I am not a financial advisor.  I am a silly blogger that writes on the Internet.  If you use my advice, you certainly get what’s coming to you, which may include being impacted by an asteroid, eaten by a sasquatch, or financial ruin.  So there.

Making Leftists Radical: Compassion, Internet Cats, and Feminists With No Sense of Humor

“It’s mercy, compassion, and forgiveness I lack.  Not rationality.” – Kill Bill, Volume 1

awake.jpg

That’s awake, not “woke.”

Here’s a fable:

There was a little girl going to school in Japan.  Near her place in the classroom there was a cocoon that the teacher had brought in to illustrate the life cycle of the butterfly, and it was hanging right next to her every day.  For a whole week, nothing had happened, but then she noticed the cocoon shaking.  She could see that the caterpillar had completed its transformation. 

What bothered the girl so very much was that the butterfly was struggling to get out of the cocoon.  Finally, exhausting all of the patience that a seven year old has, she helped the butterfly by ever so gently tearing open the cocoon so it could get free.

To her surprise, rather than flying, the butterfly fell out of the cocoon and onto the floor of the school room.  She gasped.

The teacher walked over and looked at the butterfly helplessly writhing on the floor.  It was clear the butterfly would never be able to fly.

“Did you help the butterfly out of the cocoon?”

The little girl, through eyes that were filling with tears, nodded.

The teacher explained, “It is only through struggling to get out of the cocoon that the butterfly gets enough strength to fly.”

This is one of my favorite stories.  I can’t recall where I originally heard or read it.

I’d often tell that story to people that reported to me when they were facing a particularly difficult time at work.  I’m sure it just made some of them mad – they wanted me to solve their problems.  I refused, perhaps giving them hints on places they should look to find the answer.

One of my goals was to get the work done for the company, sure.  But I also wanted to take the time to get the person developed – for me that was a moral imperative.  My biggest goal was that everyone who reported to me became a more capable person – and I knew that didn’t happen without the struggle.  Oh sure, I could have told Ted where the fire extinguisher was, but that would have deprived him of the struggle to find it.  And one of his eyebrows finally did grow back.

That’s how I mostly have used the story, to show the importance of struggle.  But there’s another and perhaps more central moral to this story:

misplaced compassion kills.

The Mrs. recently found an article that really, for me, answered the question about why the Left is turning so radical, so quickly.  The article is by Zach Goldberg, and you can find it here (LINK), although he takes the data in a different direction than I do for his article.  Goldberg has an interesting Twitter® feed (LINK) as well.  The graphs in this post are mostly from either the article or his Twitter© feed.

It’s always nice when ¡Science!® is able to provide an insight on the problems of the world.  I started with the story about compassion.  When psychologists do studies of Leftists, they find that Leftists score higher in compassion than the norm – a lot higher.  Well, some Leftists.

marx.jpg

Karl Marx had only a very short career as a clown at children’s parties.  After he was fired, he insisted that true children’s parties had never been tried.

Does that mean that people on the Right don’t care?  Not at all.  The data shows that people on the Right give more to charity and also volunteer more hours, so it’s clear that people on the Right care.  But they don’t get all mushy and aren’t dominated by their feelings.

It turns out there are differences as well among Leftists based on race.  One major bias that almost all people from all time have had is in-group preference.  You like your family more than your brother’s family.  You like your cousin better than you like your neighbor.  You like people in your town more than people who live in the next town over – that’s why Friday night high school football games are so big in small towns.

This makes sense at almost every point in history – it’s rare for you to be living in France and think “Wow, that German flag flying the Eiffel Tower is such a neat thing to see.”  In-group bias is normal.  It’s why Americans rooted for team U.S.A. in the Women’s World Cup® even though soccer is a vastly inferior game to tic-tac-toe.

monopoly.jpg

Thankfully I’ve reached the “Dad’s asleep in the recliner” stage when the Monopoly® board comes out.

White leftists, however, have somehow become biased against . . . white people.  It’s like being born a guy and not liking that you were born a guy . . . oh.  Nevermind.

ingroup2.jpg

As you can see, there is exactly one group that detests itself and prefers other groups. 

But this isn’t the norm.  And this isn’t how the Left has been for years.  Data shows quite nicely that they didn’t used to be this way – as late as 2010, 20% of white Leftists thought that increasing border security was a good idea.  2018?  Less than 5%.

It’s clear the Left has become more radical and the Right has (more or less) remained the same.

pew.png

Republicans have stayed pretty steady on the border.  Not so with white liberals.

What happened in 2010?

Twitter® and Facebook©.

facebookleft.jpg

Who would have thought that Leftist extremism starts with Grandma posting cat memes on Facebook®?

The user bases of these social networks took off in 2010.  There is one thing that social networks want – your attention.  They best way to get that attention?  Show you content that creates an emotional response.  Cats and babies are great – they make people laugh and go “aww.”  But to a Leftist, to keep their attention – show them things that create outrage by violating their sense of compassion.

aocsad.jpg

I hear her next initiative will be to forgive all the Electoral College student loan debt.

The Twitter®, Facebook©, and YouTube™ video suggestion algorithms have become the Democrat® brand.  Social media is a particularly useful programming device.  These algorithms are used every day to pull the Left farther Left.  Why does this impact white Leftists in particular?  They spend more time on social media than the rest of the Left.  But they’re enough – white leftists are about 25% of the electorate.  And they do have money.  And they hate the Right.

Through this lens, the reasons for the bans become clear – even though the algorithm mutes voices on the Right, the most effective voices must be silenced.  Arguments counter to the narrative have to be stopped.  As has recently become quite clear – the Left owns social media and will clear out clear, articulate voices on the Right given any excuse.  The chance is too great that these voices will interfere with the programming.  An example:

Portlandia is funny, and there are more bookstore clips that are even funnier – this was just the most “safe for work” one I could find.

Portlandia was a series on IFC® for 8 seasons.  It mocked (fairly gently) the Leftist culture of Portland.  It’s certain that the stars and most of the writers of the show are of the Left.  But the things that the show made fun of can no longer be made fun of.  Feminism was often the butt of good-natured jokes, but the feminist bookstore that several skits were shot in broke ties with the show after they decided they didn’t want to be made fun of – at all.  What had been funny even to the Left in 2010 was by 2016 unacceptable.  Feminism could no longer be a laughing matter, nor could any other Leftist narrative.

In 2019, Portland has lost its sense of humor and replaced it with outrage.  Antifa regularly assembles a mob of hundreds to shut down any speech it disagrees with through violence.  Their compassion drives them to shed blood, but it doesn’t stop there.  This same compassion compels the Left to want to give every illegal alien free health care, and a quick pathway to citizenship.  In turn, that drives the 144,000 illegals to want to come here – and that was just in June of 2019.  That’s a 10,000 person Caravan every other day.

All of this is caused by misplaced compassion, programmed by social media via algorithms.  Certainly it’s all a coincidence, right?  It’s not like large corporations owned and run by Leftists would have a political motive, right?

Civil War Weather Report #2, Censorship, Stalin, and a Bunch of Links

“Have you any idea how successful censorship is on TV? Don’t know the answer? Hmm. Successful, isn’t it?” – Max Headroom

15minutes.jpg

11:45pm – fifteen minutes to midnight.  Yes, it’s subjective, and it’s based on the countdown, published last month (Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming).  We’re still at CivCon 6 – People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.

In this issue:  Front Matter – Censorship Update– John Mark’s Video and Criticism – Updated Civil War II Index – Who Benefits? – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the second issue of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts will be a bit different than the other posts here at Wilder Wealthy and Wise – they will consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War II.  My intent is to update these on the first Monday of every month.

65lincoln.jpg

John Wilkes Paintbooth (Idea via user Miles Long at The Burning Platform)

There has been a pretty significant interest in Civil War II – it has generated more emails to me than any other topic I’ve written about, with a great number of links to relevant information that you’ll see below.  It’s also resulted in about a dozen book suggestions, and I’ve bought or downloaded every one of your suggestions.  I haven’t had time to read even 10% of the books yet, but I can tell the suggestions are rock solid.  Thank you.  Please feel free to contribute more suggestions of links or books either in the comments below or directly to me at movingnorth@gmail.com – I won’t use your name (from e-mails) unless explicitly given permission, and I won’t directly quote your email unless explicitly given permission, but I may quote my answers in a way that doesn’t violate your privacy.

Censorship Update

Why is censorship an issue in Civil War II?  Censorship is a measure of how those in power (either political or economic) fear an idea and how polarized they have become.  Most censorship in the past had been based on the sexual content of the book or movie.  Now it’s based on ideas that are dangerous.  Which ideas?  Depends on the day.

I know it says “Update” but this is really the first version, so technically the first “update” will be next month.  There has been more censorship in the United States in the past year than at any point in my adult life.  This level of censorship is more frightening than anything I’ve ever seen, except for the latest Democratic presidential debates.

YouTube© is the real star of censorship in June.  Comedian/journalist Steven Crowder has been a long-time YouTube® broadcaster who is generally on the mainstream “Right” side of the political world.  He likes guns.  Doesn’t like abortion.  He is not extreme in any real sense of the word.  But as a comedian, one of the things he does regularly is mock people.  Which people?  Everyone.  I won’t go into the details (you can look it up) but a group of Leftists decided Crowder should be banned from YouTube™ since he made a lispy-Leftist journalist who is an ethnic and sexual minority feel bad.

YouTube© responded to this contrived moral outrage by making it so Crowder couldn’t get money from YouTube® ads – oddly this increased Crowder’s income as thousands of people bought merchandise directly from Crowder’s company.

End of story?  No.

youtube.jpg

Soon enough, YouTube™ will consist of nothing more than makeup videos, Buzzfeed®, and whatever else the New York Times© says is okay.

Forty other channels were either banned, demonetized, or had videos deleted.  I won’t go so far as to say that these channels are all mainstream like Steven Crowder, they aren’t.  But I am not aware of any content that called for violence or did anything more than spread “dangerous ideas.”  In a crowning bit of irony, YouTube® censored a video where a Google™ (owner of YouTube™) executive talked about how Google© wouldn’t allow another “Trump situation.”  This was presumably via using their ability to manipulate what search results people see when they use Google™.

Twitter® had also purged significant figures on the Right, most prominent among them James Woods, who has since given up on the platform after multiple bans despite having over 2,000,000 followers.

Let’s take Amazon, who in 2010 said that “Amazon does not support or promote hatred or criminal acts, however, we do support the right of every individual to make their own purchasing decisions.”  This was a fairly absolute position, especially since Amazon was defending selling a pro-pedophilia book.

Not so much now.  Amazon has now banned dozens of books, and created entire categories of products that cannot be sold.   You can’t get a Confederate flag t-shirt from Amazon, but you can certainly get a Stalin shirt.  This is despite the fact that Stalin killed (In the World Murder Olympics, Communists Take Gold and Silver!) more people in one year – 3.9 million – than the total number of slaves in the United States in 1850 – 3 million.  Sure, it sucked to be a slave.  But it was certainly worse to be a slave to communism that was starved to death.

gulag.jpg

 

With apologies to Arthur (LINK), whose tagline I mangled for this one.

I tried to come up with a list of censored things, but even the censored things seem to be mainly censored.  Orwell would be proud.

John Mark’s Civil War 2 Video and Criticism

This video was suggested by several of you, including Shinmen Takezo who suggests you listen to all of John Mark’s videos.  I’ve seen this one, and plan to watch the others when I have a spare minute.

I think Mr. Mark is spot on with commentary that Trump is the last Republican president that will be elected.  I wrote about this back in November of 2018(Trump: The Last President?).  It has a click-bait-y title, which might explain why it went viral and got over 120,000 pageviews on Zero Hedge©.

John Mark reviews an article purportedly written by a “Red Team” (bad guy) member of a war game where the Right revolts against the government and the Left.  My response is in italics, or braille if you don’t clean your screen very often.

First Vulnerability:  The electrical grid is dispersed and easy to take down into most cities because it is impossible to guard.  The front won’t be against just the Right, it will also be against their own (Leftist) cities.

I agree.  The United States is built as a free society, and so is all of our infrastructure.  It is devastatingly vulnerable.  In one of the links below, you’ll see how a $0.02 match took down a $20,000,000 bridge.  And that was on accident.

Second Vulnerability:  30% will revolt.  Most on the Right have guns.  There are 400 million guns, 8 trillion bullets in the United States – most in the hand of the Right.  Ten million strongly on the Right.  Tanks and airplanes don’t matter as much as the Left thinks.   There might be 2 million in the United States military, and over 60% voted for the Right.  There are 20 million former military.

Total would be about 2 million available forces for revolutionary suppression (including civilian police), if the active military did not revolt.

I agree.  The people, especially former military, on the Right can do whatever they want.  Tanks and airplanes didn’t win World War II on the Eastern Front – the winning weapon was the mortar and the rifle – anti-personnel weapons.  The Soviets also accomplished it only by throwing millions of bodies into combat.  Bodies that will be tough for the Left to get outside of conscription.

yelp

I think there’s an Uber joke in here somewhere.

Third Vulnerability:  The Left lives in consuming cities, the Right lives in the land that produces food and stuff.  The concentrated cities of the Left produce a lot of porn and girls with daddy-issues, but not much food.

I agree.  They are vulnerable, though the porn and Facebook™ drought might be tough on some.

Where do I disagree? 

The Ultra-Violent and Nukes.

Sure, we know the Starbucks® Socialists and Latte Lenins won’t fight.  Why wouldn’t the government take MS-13 and arm them and turn them loose to “make examples” of small downs, one after another?  If they were losing, they would certainly do that.  And they could scrape together a pilot and a nuke or two to take down a rebel capital city.  If they were losing, they would.     

The Right could make a reasonable partisan force, especially when you look that probably 50% to 75% of the military would defect and train people on the Right, bringing along a nice batch of weapons (think grenades, C4, etcetera) to the farm to teach the rest of the football team.  I don’t think Jed would need to teach the boys to shoot, and I think they’d learn to use that mortar and grenade launcher that he “liberated” from the Marines very quickly.  

Logistics and Geography

The Left can be resupplied via air and ship.  “Emergency” supplies would head into coastal cities and sustain them forever, though Denver would fall soon enough.  Would Russia supply the heartland while the Chinese supplied the West Coast?  I have no idea – I think they’d do what.  Regardless, France would soon surrender.

Also, I think there would be a nearly immediate media clamp down.   The media supports the Left, no matter what.  They would parrot the Leftist line until the studios were taken from them by force.

I think that this is far too optimistic, but I also think the odds are lower the more time passes.

Civil War Index:

Here’s the state for this month.

Economic:  +10.42.  Unemployment is the same – interest rates took a huge drop, and the Dow was (slightly) up.  Increasing economic is good.

Political Instability:  -46%.  I think that the start of the debates and the poor poll numbers of “any democratic candidate” against Trump has calmed the Left politically by a lot.  Lower instability is good.

Censorship:  Originally this was going to be a candidate index.  Sadly, there’s no data.  How scary is it that you can’t find good data on censorship?

Interest in Violence:  Up 7% this month.  Not horrible, but not good.

Illegal Aliens:  Up 24% last month to 144,000.  144,000 is more than have been deported since Trump got into office.  This shows increasing instability south of the border, or lower fear of deportation.  Both are bad.

Eventually these will be graphs, but a graph with one point is . . . boring.  Maybe in August.

matrix

Quote From a Failed Candidate to be The One:  “Is the Red Pill gluten free?  Also, is it vegan?”

One measure I thought was pretty good was from Anonymousse over at The Burning Platform:  “One good metric may be the spread between political poll projections and reality/results. I’m thinking that gauges just how “free” people feel about saying versus what they do. Something I’ve noticed widening over the years.”

I’d like to do this one, but the data points are just too far apart.  This would be useful information over the course of a decade, but won’t be much use monthly.  I think Anonymousse is right – people don’t feel good about sharing if they’re going to vote for an “unpopular” candidate on the Right, severely skewing the polls.

What do I mean by unpopular?

We were on vacation two years ago, and decided to stop at a national monument.  We got out.  The plates on our car are from a very red state – my county went 85% for Trump.  As we got out of the car to stretch our legs and see the monument, we spied a guy birdwatching.  He put his binoculars on our car.  He was about 150 feet away.

Birdwatch Bill, yelling:  “Who’d you vote for?”

John Wilder, being sassy, yelling back:  “Starts with a T!”

Birdwatch Bill, muffled:  “Ashshof.”

John Wilder:  “What?”

Birdwatch Bill, with anger, yelling:  “You heard me, A****le.”  It rhymes with tadpole.

I was stunned, I mean, I don’t deny being a tadpole, but I didn’t think you could see it from 150 feet away.  The Mrs. was in the bathroom, and I’m thankful that she didn’t hear him, since she would have broken him like a twig – she handles my light work.

After saying that, Birdwatch Bill scurried and jumped in his car, and sped off.

After hearing that story, The Mrs. was adamant that we not move to that state, even when I had a job offer there, even though I think she’d like to hear Birdwatch Bill’s yelp as she gave him a nuclear wedgie.

Who Benefits?

Whenever I see something that doesn’t make sense, I try to understand what could possibly be causing it.  When conditions are better for minority racial and ethnic groups than ever in the history of the country, and the agitation increases, I have to ask, who benefits?  When the push for segregation comes from, not the Right but the Left, I ask, who benefits?

When I see us moving on a seemingly certain path towards war, I have to ask, who benefits?  Probably more on this in a future post.

Links From Readers:

Obviously I only stand by 100% of my own writing.  Here is some interesting stuff sent in by readers.  Feel free to take some of the burden off of Ricky, and send me more.  And if you send it in an email, please let me know if I may credit you.

links2.jpg

See, a chain link photo in the “Links” page.  I’m witty that way.

Thomas Chittum’s Civil War Two  – I’m not finished with this one yet, but very interesting.  A 178 page .pdf file – this was listed by “Mark” at The Burning Platform.

Photos of Bosnia during and after their civil war from “Mygirl…maybe” over at The Burning Platform.

Update on the State of Jefferson vs. New California from user “Martel’s Hammer” at The Burning Platform.

Who is behind Antifa?, via AC at The Burning Platform.

From Ricky:

Pentagon prepping for civil unrest?

Review of the risk of civil unrest (presentation).

Peter Turchin predicts violence in 2020.

France and Social Unrest – Tied to Loss of Family and Religion

Perhaps my favorite link from Ricky – the Partisan Conflict Index – worth watching. 

Brazos reminds us that there is precedence for using the troops against American civilians. 

User “MN Steel” reminds us that the damage a single match can do.

From my E-mail:

First is a blog I often read, Metallicman on what liberals have in store for conservatives.  Not pretty. 

And more from Ricky!

This one from an Australian perspective.

NY Magazine – wondering if it isn’t time to split up.  My add (from HBO®) was for the series Divorce.  Hmmm.

From the Federalist, again about “divorce” of the United States.

From other emails . . .

A great article from Mary Christine over at The Burning Platform, looking at Kansas and Missouri during the Civil War and how partisans will form – will Civil War Two look more like the personal fights along the Kansas and Missouri borders?