“Brandon, come on, let’s go . . . Brandon?” – Brightburn
Midnight?
- Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
- Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
- Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
- Open War.
I’ve bolded both 9. and 10. That’s the lead story.
As close as we are to the precipice of war, be careful. Things could change at any minute. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.
In this issue: Front Matter – Making The Call, Part II? – Violence And Censorship Update – Models For The Future, It’s Personal – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – After Virginia – Links
Front Matter
Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 600 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.
https://wilderwealthywise.com/civil-war-weather-report-previous-posts/
Making The Call, Part II?
Last month we spent time discussing whether or not the United States has met the international criteria for being in a civil war. The answer (in my opinion) is that we are close enough that it’s hard to tell. Some people are solidly on the “it’s already going” and some are not. One bit of criteria that was sent to me by a faithful reader – thank you 173d VietVet. Mike Shelby (Forward Observer) wrote up a short missive on this question (LINK) and came out on the “no” side.
That’s fair. He put forward some criteria, and I thought they’d be worth discussing this month. These four bullet points are direct quotes:
- domestic military action (i.e., not just police)
- government involvement as a belligerent (i.e., not just a tribal war between citizens)
- capable fighting on both sides of the conflict (i.e., not just a genocide)
- at least 1,000 combat-related deaths in a 12-month period (i.e., sustained fighting)
My responses are in bold:
- domestic military action (i.e., not just police) – Have you seen the police recently? They have equipment that most world militaries would love to have. Heck, our police even have stuff we didn’t leave for the Taliban. To require military action seems irrelevant.
- government involvement as a belligerent (i.e., not just a tribal war between citizens) – The trend in our current generation of warfare explicitly uses the citizen as a belligerent, if not the main belligerent. In my mind, it is more than enough that the government aids and abets citizens to kill others. This is indisputably happening right now.
- capable fighting on both sides of the conflict (i.e., not just a genocide) – This is the best point of the bunch. The violence (at some point) must go both ways. Right now, it is observably one-sided, and is looks much more like a genocide.
- at least 1,000 combat-related deaths in a 12-month period (i.e., sustained fighting) – Another valid point, but remember, in dirty wars, state sponsored combat looks like . . . crime. I do hope the violence level drops, but there is no sign of it now.
Again, I have nothing but respect for Mr. Shelby, but the reliance on his past military background provides an analysis lens that I do not share and he perhaps parses the terminology a bit more finely than I would. Thankfully, there’s room for both of us to be right.
If A is for apple and B is for banana, what is C for? Explosives.
I’m not going to (besides the notes above) belabor the point. I don’t care if the gun that shoots me belongs to a private from Louisiana or a cop or a Mexican cartel gunman. I’m still dead. And if the government is encouraging, it’s either genocide or, if the fighting goes both ways, it’s civil war.
There is more from Mr. Shelby a bit later in this edition of the Weather Report.
Violence And Censorship Update
Not a lot to add to violence this month.
Censorship, continues in full force. At the beginning of the month, Congress had a Facebook® “whistleblower” as the main witness at hearings where . . . she said the big problem with Facebook© is that they don’t censor nearly enough.
What does the “p” in Facebook© stand for? Privacy.
Yup. That was the story. But then it came out that that the “whistleblower” spent last October making sure that information that could damage Joe Biden was censored from Facebook™. She was on the team that made sure that information related to Hunter Biden’s laptop was suppressed.
I’m shocked, shocked that she was wanting yet more censorship from Facebook.
Applying for work at Facebook® is easy. They already have your details.
Since it’s November, I thought I’d remind everyone of a picture from last year. Consider it a stroll down memory-hole lane.
There was more fraud in the 2020 election than in a Thanksgiving Wilder Family Monopoly® game.
Again, if you want free and fair elections, it’s absolutely certain that you block windows so the public can’t view the vote counting in any way. Stalin said it well: “Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.”
Models For The Future – It’s Personal
I mentioned above that we’d see more from the Forward Observer, and here’s an excellent article where he discusses the model of the Irish Troubles as a model for potential future difficulties. You can read it here (LINK).
Similarly, Mary Christine put forward a fictional piece at The Burning Platform in 2019. Those set as a fiction, it describes how conflict escalated from the political to a guerilla war in Missouri during the Civil War. You can read it here (LINK).
A third model to think about would be the Second Boer War, where the British defeated the Boer Republics and forcefully integrated them into British South Africa. Like the other two, this conflict was based on guerilla tactics. To defeat them, the British finally just started putting Boer civilians (women and children) into concentration camps with all the expected brutality and tragedy that is implied by that. Tens of thousands of civilians died in the camps.
These models all have several things in common, but what strikes me is the utter brutality in each of them and the sometimes-targeted attacks on non-combatants. Conflict of this type is marked by tragedy in a way that lasts for generations – it becomes and remains personal.
Updated Civil War II Index
The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real-time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.
Violence:
Up is more violent, and our perception of violence is holding steady.
Political Instability:
Up is more unstable, and it ticked up this month again, mainly on inflation fears.
Economic:
Economic measures ticked upwards in October – despite my prediction that they’d drop.
Illegal Aliens:
This data was at record levels last three months, and this rate is 4x the rate from any previous year in the last four.
After Virginia
Virginia has scared the Left, badly. In their minds, Virginia had become a permanent Blue state – a Leftist outpost where statues could be taken down and Critical Race Theory could start along with hormone treatments for kindergartners.
Then they lost. Big time. And it wasn’t just a loss, it was a loss that was a psychological blow. Biden is in political free-fall, and is less popular than COVID-19.
The Left is realizing the hard truth: they won’t sweep into a victory, everywhere and forever. The comments section in Leftist areas?
Calling for a peaceful split. Previously, when winning, they wanted it all – they were sure they were going to win and establish a socialist paradise from sea to shining sea.
This was a sea change. They realize that the attitude of the Right is changing, and they realize that they’re managing to make Trump look good to the swing voters. Is a consensus building for a split?
Is this where we might beheaded?
LINKS
As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky. Thanks so much, Ricky!!
From Sea To Shining Sea
Brooklyn 1:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1NR_DWUeKI
Brooklyn 2: https://twitter.com/i/status/1454903434046578688
Lancaster PA: https://youtu.be/-Ch2q0Gw5Vg
Washington DC: https://twitter.com/i/status/1447913542674522117
Chicago 1: https://twitter.com/i/status/1445784277807890436
Chicago 2:https://twitter.com/i/status/1445483216475885576
Minneapolis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_6hA9PgICc
Mobile AL:https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1449214856138305536
Berkeley Campus: https://youtu.be/dYB9-o5QklE
Army Boot Camp: https://twitter.com/i/status/1449910120364879880
Marine Field Exercise: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10159949/Royal-Marines-commandos-force-troops-humiliating-surrender-training-exercise.html
Bad Guys…Guns…Good Gals
https://alphanews.org/78-instances-of-fully-automatic-gunfire-in-minneapolis-so-far-this-year/
https://buchanan.org/blog/who-is-killing-10000-black-americans-every-year-158601
https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/past-tolls
https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/missouri/article255162407.html
Election Tidbits
https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1448396312098050048
https://www.defendflorida.org/canvassing
https://thenationalpulse.com/analysis/kline-zucks-bucks-were-illegal/
Secession – Thinking Nationally
https://link.medium.com/yNzD8Sxhzkb
https://www.thedailybeast.com/he-saw-americas-crackup-coming-in-2011he-says-its-worse-now
https://www.salon.com/2021/10/09/a-new-confederacy-and-the-have-already-seceded/
Secession – Acting Locally
https://mises.org/wire/three-reasons-start-taking-secession-seriously
https://www.sanjoseinside.com/news/california-secede-one-group-got-a-key-approval-last-week-to-try/
https://www.amazon.com/Break-Up-Secession-Division-Imperfect-ebook/dp/B07X9PWSVG
https://www.amazon.com/American-Secession-Looming-National-Breakup-ebook/dp/B07N94RL11
Secession – Everybody Calm Down
https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/10/no-were-not-more-divided-than-we-were-during-the-civil-war/
https://www.governing.com/now/is-america-in-a-cold-civil-war-not-at-all
https://www.sunjournal.com/2021/10/10/rich-lowry-national-divorce-is-a-poisonously-stupid-idea/
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/10/06/americans-national-divorse-theyre-wrong-515443
https://www.npr.org/2021/10/06/1043401926/russia-expert-fiona-hill-there-is-nothing-for-you-here
Secession – The Least Of Our Worries?
https://www.revolver.news/2021/10/secret-chinese-philosopher-lessons-for-america/
https://palladiummag.com/2021/10/11/the-triumph-and-terror-of-wang-huning/
https://dokumen.pub/america-against-america.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/11/the-new-meth/620174/