Solar Flare

Some fun for those still up.  Quite a show tonight.

Author: John

Nobel-Prize Winning, MacArthur Genius Grant Near Recipient writing to you regularly about Fitness, Wealth, and Wisdom - How to be happy and how to be healthy. Oh, and rich.

14 thoughts on “Solar Flare”

  1. John – – This solar “burp” will produce quite a show. Perhaps there will be some CME related disruptions, but hopefully no Carrington-type destruction. However, we must note that the strength of the blast cannot be measured with accuracy until the ejecta is one million miles from Earth. In other words, measured only one hour before it hits our magnetosphere. Not much time exists from measuring the force/intensity and then to notify essential electricity providers/actors to prepare or isolate electric components from damage.

    Have read that it is wise to unplug all sensitive electronics, to include internet modems, then replug them into sockets/connections later this afternoon.

    But these actions are no guarantee of success in defeating a super strong CME blast. And one should note that there were previous solar flares (https://gizmodo.com/cannibal-solar-blasts-could-trigger-major-geomagnetic-storms-this-week-2000684186), moving toward Earth at a much slower rate that might arrive nearly simultaneously with the “biggie”. So nothing is certain……

    If this is the Big One, the destroyer of civilizations, take the time to tell your loved ones how much they mean to you since it might be quite a while before you can contact them again.

    And pray for God’s grace…

  2. Worst-case solar-storm scenario with best-case response: grid operators let the circuit breakers open, the power goes out for a day or two, and then they re-energize it. Worst-case scenario with worst-case response: grid operators over-ride the circuit breakers to support their most politically-relevant customers until the transformers burn out, and it takes five years to build enough new transformers to restore the grid.

    Prepare accordingly.

    Lathechuck

    1. Yup. And we won’t need nearly as many transformers because we’ll lose between 30% to 90% of the population.

  3. Worst-case, worst-case, with worst-case consequences: loss of electrical grid means loss of electrical pump: clean water for households, sewage from households, fuels for transport, and cooling for nuclear waste. Hilarity ensues.

  4. This morning’s update to the NOAA K index numbers shows planetary K (Kp) peaked last night between 0000 and 0300 UTC, at 8.7 dropped to 8 from 0300 until 0600 UTC and is now at 7. The last time we got auroras around here (central Florida) Kp was 10. IIRC.
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index#
    That was in the 1990s – if I’m remembering correctly. I remember missing it because I was watching Monday Night Football – of all things. That was cycle 23. We’re in 25 now and it’s not as strong as 23 was. (Cycle 24 from about 2010 to 2020 was the weakest cycle in a hundred years. I’ve personally farted harder than that cycle.)

    When a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that’s faster than a CME that’s already coming happens, the faster overtakes the slower, the two merge and it’s called a Cannibal CME. This time we had a bigger, faster CME overtake TWO incoming CMEs. Super Cannibal? They love dramatic names like that.

    That said, while an X5 flare isn’t an everyday occurrence, it’s sure not unique. This solar flare was X 5.1. Not particularly strong, just the strongest of 2025. July of ’24 we had an X14 flare, and there have been flares that measured in the 20s.

    2. Must have hit us just right. I hadn’t seen one like that since Alaska (and in Alaska they’re predominantly green).

  5. We finally got to see the aurora last night! The first time in my life. It’s always been cloudy, or advertised the day after.

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