“The end time has come, not in flame, but in mist!” – The Mist
I once had shoes that had Velcro® closures. I mean, why knot?
I recently completed the book End Times by Peter Turchin. I have recently done a review of How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter (not that Barbara Walter, some other commie bimbo), and by comparison Ms. Walter’s book is a badly drawn crayon sketch of Donald Trump by a mildly developmentally disabled child who was born of the copulation of two stoned Leftists and raised on a diet of Trotsky and lead paint chips.
Her book was bad. Turchin, who I imagine is also Left-leaning, was (mainly) able to keep his political opinions out of the book, and produce something useful and as even-handed as he could make it, what with having to go to fancy university parties with the Leftist intelligentsia who are globalist and communist at the same time, because, reasons.
Going back in time, Turchin predicted in the early ‘teens (2010, I believe) that the decade beyond 2020 was going to be rough. This was based on an actual computational model, where he took various social factors, smashed them into a computer, and cranked out a slip of paper that said, “Beyond Here, There Be Dragons.” To be fair, his model seems to have some predictive capacity, though I have yet to find a place to tinker with it, but I’ll bet Ricky can track it down if anyone can. A .pdf that has a flavor of the model is here (LINK).
The XXX Files are a completely different subject.
His description of the model starts with one of the things that leads to collapse: Elite Overproduction. In this context, you pretty much know who the elite are. Donald Trump is one, and so are the Clintons, and the Obamas, and thousands of other wealthy, socially connected people who have political power. Per Turchin, only 9 presidents of the United States weren’t 1%ers, and before 1850, all of the presidents were elite and wealthy types and probably had exceptional hats, since they didn’t have other cool things to buy back then.
Turchin breaks down political power into four types:
- Coercion – Do it or else. Leftists love this. Think AntiFa® or the “new” Army.
- Wealth – Let’s face it, rich dudes rarely do jail time, and where exactly is Epstein’s client list and why can’t you see it?
- Bureaucracy – You own the organization that provide services or do stuff – think the IRS or the DMV.
- Ideology – This includes CNN® and Harvard™.
Where do psychics shop? The Seers® catalog.
In Turchin’s view, there are specialists at each level of political power. The big problem for people is when these folks are present in too large of a quantity and get bored and have to do something else. In 2016, we had a billionaire (Trump) running against someone worth in excess of $120 million (Hilldabeast). In no way was this usual, but later, billionaire Michael Bloomberg jumped into the race. Why? Bored, I guess. Most billionaires let other people do their fighting for them – like George Soros or Emperor Palpatine. But I repeat myself.
The key problem is that there are more elite people who want power than there are available chairs. That’s always the case to a certain extent, but with tens of thousands of Harvard© and Stanford™ and Dartmouth® grads fighting for elite positions in every facet of the coercion, wealth, bureaucratic, or ideological elite, well, this starts to drive instability, per Turchin. Per me, there seem to be a lot of people who have no connection whatsoever with anyone but themselves and their elite cocoon of friends with the same ideas and no-fat decaf pumpkin-spice lattes.
Turchin later goes on to talk about how the British killing off tons of French nobility during battles around 1400 to 1450 actually helped France to have a much more stable political period because there everybody had stuff to do other than try to overthrow the king or kill their brother or eat snails and smoke cigarettes while wearing berets and carrying baguettes of bread everywhere.
I once saw a baguette in a cage. I guess it was bread in captivity.
Yes, in the coming years at least half of the elite will either die or cease to be elite and have to drive Yugos® or Ford Escorts™ while working at JCPenney’s©.
There just aren’t enough chairs in the inner circle to go around.
So, we’ve got too many elites, which is one of Turchin’s factors that lead to societal breakdown. What else leads to problems? Turchin calls the next one, “Popular Immiseration” – bluntly, when life sucks for the common person. Another term for this is Bidenomics. Economic power of workers is disappearing, wages are going backwards when it comes to purchasing power, and jobs are more uncertain and awful.
To be fair to Biden, this was the trend even before he was selected, and was really the feeling that ushered in Trump. Trump was and is a reaction to the crapfest that the economy has turned into, and is more or less predictable. In 1956 Trump would have been a joke candidate, in 2000 Trump was a joke candidate, but by 2016 Trump was taken seriously because, to a large proportion of Americans, life is slowly becoming more miserable, daily. The needed someone, anyone, to listen to them and stop the nonsense that the Left (and, to be fair, the Chamber of Commerce Right) is shoving down their throats. Mittens Romney was just the same as the Left in his goals, he just used a different phrase to get there.
The last thing the American people wanted was ¡Jeb! To give an example from another period in American history that was in crisis, Abraham Lincoln was another joke candidate that fell into a period where he could be elected.
I guess Mary Todd Lincoln said to Abe that day, “Would it kill you to take me to a play once in a while?”
Turchin discusses Lincoln’s election not in terms of slavery, but in terms of economic misery combined with lots of rich dudes. Turchin adds in that the failing financial health of a country adds to this, lowering the legitimacy of the state.
These factors, Turchin notes, in every case that they’ve covered, always reach a breaking point within 200 years or so. This is in line with Strauss and Howe in The Fourth Turning and the theories of the unfortunately named Sir John Glubb:
It’s here that the Turchin takes a bit of time to discuss the nature of the American Empire, circa 2023. American power, he notes, isn’t based on religion. It likewise isn’t based on a militaristic history – although we’ve elected generals as president, the power of the American Empire is and always has been commerce. We sent trade ships in the 1800s across the world. Genghis Khan didn’t create his empire with trade, he created it with the sword and the horse and by having sex with half of the women in Asia. While the English used liberal amounts of gunpowder creating their empire, “I say, old chap, what are those Boer people doing sitting on our gold and diamonds?”, they were a commerce-based empire as well.
Me? I was upset when I got a pack of sticky playing cards for Christmas – I found them difficult to deal with.
I’d agree with Turchin – American power has been economic and, like the British before us, created an economic empire. The wealth from that economic empire thus created the ability for us to have really cool tanks and planes and aircraft carriers and nuclear weapons. No bucks? No Buck Rodgers.
Since it has been economics that created the empire, it’s economics that fuels it today: America is built on economics, and the biggest controllers of that are . . . rich people. As much as I’m in favor of capitalism (which is a lot) I can see that a system where the rich people get to make the rules is gonna suck for everyone else.
Turchin calls this the “Wealth Pump” – it’s the idea that the rules are set up not for the common citizen, but for the really rich dudes. What are some of the components of this Wealth Pump?
- Keeping a surplus of workers so that wages are lower. Unrestricted illegal (and legal) immigration? It’s perfect to keep wages down.
- What happens when we are need other workers than the illegals? Let’s cut all trade barriers so that a programmer in the United States has to compete with a programmer in Bangladesh. There won’t be any consequences from that, right?
- Larger companies that have greater pull – Steve Jobs said, before he died, obviously, that he couldn’t make Apple® again – there were too many barriers in place. Many don’t realize that large number of “consumer” or “environmental” regulations are actually welcomed by large businesses – they’re a barrier to entry and competition.
This is what the Wealth Pump looks like.
That the impact of the Wealth Pump is misery is a given. While (once upon a time) I was a libertarian, I’ve since moved on from that, as they’ve moved farther in support of this wealth pump. Freedom doesn’t come with mere economic freedom, and it doesn’t come from only from freedom from government coercion. Does it, in the end, matter if it is a group of elites in government or a group of elites at Google™ is the one censoring you to preserve the wealth pump?
Thus ends the first part of this review. More to come. I’m not sure if it will be one or two more posts, but we’ll get through it.
I’m a trained professional. Unlike paint-chip-eating Barbara F. Walter.
(FYI, when I get this finished I’m posting a link to it at Turchin’s blog. He’s got a better book contract, but I’ve got more readers.)
Don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Goes dubble for weatherwomen.
You don’t know me but I’m your brother
I was raised here in this living hell
You don’t know my kind in your world
But fairly soon the time will tell
Takin’ it to the streets? Coming soon to a city near you.
…American power “has” been economic.
“Has” being the key word. It’s now “had”. China does trade, just like the US used to do. Now, we dispatch billion dollar aircraft carriers that can be sunk with a million dollar hypersonic missile. Bad optics.
Hemingway’s “gradually, then suddenly” applies to the US. Likely by 2025, IMO.
Our power was in production, and now it’s all financial shenanigans. Very, very fragile. I think it will go a bit longer.
” … someone worth in excess of $120 million (Hilldabeast).”
Is it “Hildabeast,” invoking a vague impression of some Teutonic harridan? Or “Hilldabeast,” adding some flavor of the Ozarks? Or “Hildebeast,” invoking thoughts of an animal, as “wildebeest,” a 260-to-600-pound critter of the African grasslands?
Ah, never mind. “Insufferable bitch” will do nicely.
Let’s cut all trade barriers so that a programmer in the United States has to compete with a programmer in Bangladesh.
No, Denninger, there is no way to construct an iron curtain to permanently prevent one group of humans from competing with another, just ask the Aztecs. Temporary iron curtains protect uncompetitive workers, that’s the explicit goal. Only a liberal would want to help uncompetitive workers remain uncompetitive, and want it so bad as to task the police with enforcing it at gunpoint.
While (once upon a time) I was a libertarian, I’ve since moved on from that, as they’ve moved farther in support of this wealth pump. Freedom doesn’t come with mere economic freedom, and it doesn’t come from only from freedom from government coercion. Does it, in the end, matter if it is a group of elites in government or a group of elites at GoogleTM is the one censoring you to preserve the wealth pump?
Large “private” companies who produce bad deals don’t remain large unless government defends them from competition. Can you think of five excuses government will use to arrest the next challenger to google?
“No, Denninger, there is no way to construct an iron curtain to permanently prevent one group of humans from competing with another, just ask the Aztecs.”
lol – we don’t have barriers now although we should. We have incentives to bring in non-citizens. I can imagine you’re well off and thus not concerned about having your job protected.
“Temporary iron curtains protect uncompetitive workers, that’s the explicit goal.”
No it’s not to protect uncompetitive workers. The goal is to increase the bottom line. The workers I’ve seen bought in from India were a joke. We have dang good programmers here.
“Can you think of five excuses government will use to arrest the next challenger to google?”
Hell they don’t need excuses. They can do whatever the hell they want. Methinks you live a sheltered life.
Aztecs? They made great cig lighters. On the Bev Hillbys, Mr Brewster was going to light up a cig, when a Bugtussle Moron told him, “Let me do it. This is an Aztec cig lighter”.
Brewster, “I didn’t know that Aztecs had cigs.” Moron, “I’ll ask some of my Aztec friends about that.”
Describes the Left well.
No way that works. Guess who owns the poles? Your local telephone or electric company, and the telephone has the local DSL Franchise. And certainly has a non-compete for you w/ the electric provider if it owns the poles.
Sorry, no dice. But a great idea. Back 10 yrs. or so, it was generally 10¢/mo per pole for a “touch”.
No, there is. Ask Kim Jong Un, he does a fine job of it. I’m not holding him up as a paragon, but it is possible.
Countries can, and do, shield industry from competition. Does this destroy some wealth gained from trade? Certainly. Does it provide a continued competence? Absolutely.
Google? Look how they’ve gone after Gab. I’m slightly surprised Torba isn’t in irons.
North Korea? Why would I want to live in an open-air prison that can’t afford streetlights? The combination “protectionism + competitiveness + high standard of living” never exists in reality. It is the open border itself which allows the trade and the competition, and the trade and competition which produces the high standard of living. I’m an ordinary employee American programmer, but protectionism is a lose. See also: http://www.amazon.com/Principles-Economics-Saifedean-Ammous/dp/B0BZQKFPLK Principles of Economics_ by Saifedean Ammous
Never said that, simply a refutation of your point. But Best Korea has a 1.8 fertility rate, and South Korea has a 0.8 fertility rate.
The future belongs to those who show up.
Wealth isn’t everything. Happy families that make children is.
Here’s what I’ll do to compete with google. I’ll move to a small town in a Midwestern state, string my own fiber on the existing poles and run it to every building owner that wants to pay for the buildout. Then construct my own email, auction flea market, retail shopping, and banking websites using crypto without three letter agency backdoors. Then the townsfolk can form corporations to invest in poppy farming and machine gun manufacturing, with video advertisements featuring actual sex. Government, of course, which only exists to investigate windows broken at night, will have no objection to any of this and will not send any government employees to kill me with their guns.
Yet, despite these facts, you believe google to be so private as to disprove libertarianism? See how well government control of media and schooling works to direct and prevent thought?
No, it’s not the idea of competition, it’s the idea of size. One suggestion? Limit Google’s lifespan to, say, 20 years, and limit the scope of things it can do. That would be a good start.
To what institution will you delegate the power to do this limiting, and why would you delegate such power given that all historical examples don’t stay limited to the promises in their founding documents?
Step 1: collect underpants of power
Step 2: ?
Step 3: liberty and justice for all
I’m not solving all the problems today, but a good constitutional monarchy with 50 sovereign states is much better than the US in 2023. Distribution of power to the people is best. Which includes castrating corporations.
I suspect that another part of “elite overproduction” comes from ambitious young men studying engineering, and then discovering that stuff they learned about blasting tunnels through mountains and putting up tall buildings is also useful for hiding in the mountains and blasting down tall buildings, when they can’t get the kind of job they were promised by the university.
That’s where the Elite counter-culture comes from.
The 250th anniversary of “The shot heard ’round the world” occurs on April 19, 2025. The spring of Biden’s puppet master’s second (fourth?) term. I’m absolutely certain that is just a coincidence. After all, what are the chances the Left will rig and steal yet another election?
My take? Over 90%. And it will be in your face (even more!) this time.
Nice work John; this is a good posting. I just hope you did not spend your entire holiday time pounding this out.
Nope! I really relaxed, but I have a thing going where I do the first draft so I can get more sleep. Well, not tonight, but most nights. One more to come.
>who the elite are. Donald Trump is one, and so are the Clintons, and the Oba
‘Elite’ doesn’t just meant ‘wealthy’, of course. It implies being above the common folks and getting special favors and immunities. That doesn’t apply here at all.
>rich dudes rarely do jail time,
There are thousands of C-Suite execs in jail, and maybe 3 politicians. Jail time for public figures in exclusively decided by politics, not money.
>and get bored and have t
Maybe. Your boy is a sloppy thinker. Maybe he meant something deeper than teen angsty ‘bored’.
>economics that created the empire, it’s economics that fuels it toda
Economics has always fueled all humans and their endeavors.
This drivel is the product of what I call the ‘CBS world view’.
It’s like when you see all white people at an event, but CBS has taught you (all of us) to look for black faces. It’s part of the poisonous racial debate like you’ve discussed recently, even if it don’t talk about no race stuff.
It’s a nice book report, but I see you’ve kept your own thoughts about it private. You’re a bomb thrower, Wilder. A loose cannon. Either I want your gun and badge on my desk, or I like the cut of your jib.
Hahahaha! Love the last paragraph! Wait until you see the next two posts.
America doesn’t have Capitalism. Haven’t for several decades. What we now have might best be described as
an Oligarchic Kleptocracy.
Word. It ended with the 16th and 17th Amendments and the establishment of the Federal Reserve. Life is a vale of tears. Bleib ubrig. – DTW
EXACTLY! Wealth Pump legislation.
Yes. It is Kleptocracy.
The point about the French aristocracy is interesting. It did not last, of course, and by the 17th century you had The Fronde, the internal civil war of the nobles – the output of which strengthened ended up strengthening the hand of Louis XIV (“Apres moi, le deluge” and such).
It is an interesting theory on too many people and not enough chairs. I can certainly see in the working world this is the case – we are pumping out graduates who have to compete not their peers but with the whole world. There is nothing more of a let down than spending years of your life training for something only to find out the world is not that way.
It is frustrating. It is misery. It is, where we are.
Sent your Lincoln joke to my Ma. She said “She did. And as usual she was right.”
Hey, I took a shot.
The clearest proof I have discovered regarding the “End Times” (and other such matters) is that I could run this country better than anyone who is currently elected to do so. Hell, I could do a better job than their Puppet Masters. And I’m nothing but a 75 year old schlub with a lot of experiences, the ability to think for myself, and the ability to learn from my and others’ mistakes. That’s pretty sad, when you think about it.
You know, they’re just doing what they’re told. Like good little soldiers. There’s a reason the Clintons were broke in 2000 and worth $120 million today.