When Change Comes

“There have been three major disasters and you were the only one unharmed.” – Unbreakable

What’s white, loud, and makes you spill your morning coffee? An avalanche.

There is a time and place when everything changes.

Sure, summer turns to fall which turns to winter which turns to, um, Daylight Savings Time. Regardless, like the seasons, some changes are reversible. I can freeze water and turn it into ice. Then, I can melt it and it’s water again and then I can freeze it. I then put it over my eyes – at least that way I look cool.

I saw Vanilla Ice at the local arena recently. He sold me a hot dog.

Reversible changes surround us. But there are irreversible changes, too. If I burn a piece of paper, it’s just gone. Forever. There is no physical process that can unburn the paper. Or bring back that Tweet® once you hit send – just ask Rosanne.

Changes like that happen to people and systems, too. I’m not going to focus on Russia tonight, but looking at Russia and Ukraine is instructive. When the ruble fell, it’s reversible. Will it reverse? Probably. At some point.

Maybe.

Will Ukraine ever be uninvaded? Nope. Heck, if you look at the history of Kiev/Kyiv it’s invaded approximately once every seven months. If ever there was a country that was more invaded, it wasn’t China, since only one person would take the Khansequences. The Ukrainian currency is called the hryvnia and it appears to be missing vowels. If Russia ends up conquering Ukraine, it won’t need any, since it, like the Roman denarius or the Babylonian shekel, will cease to exist.

There’s going to be so much losing. You’ll be tired of losing.

There are some things that you just don’t go back from. And that’s life. I wish I could go back in time and tell Pa Wilder to buy all the gold he could when anyone could purchase it all day long for $35 an ounce. If he had done that, I would have been a bullion heir.

In retrospect, it looks obvious. When Nixon did the irreversible – disconnected the dollar from gold, what did Pa Wilder think was going to happen? He thought the dollar would keep its value.

Why?

Because, after decades of the dollar being worth $35 an ounce, why would it ever change? For forty years of Pa’s life – gold had been priced at $35 an ounce. Gold would be (in the average person’s eyes in 1973) not a great investment.

But people, including Pa, missed the point. There was no physical process that would ever result in the dollar being backed by gold again. Nixon took the United States off the gold standard because he’d printed too much cash. And, as Biden will soon learn, prosperity doesn’t come from a printing press.

Wait, he made his money in Ukraine . . . .

I was watching a video from TIK History tonight when he brought up the conversation between a German and his banker back during Weimar Germany. “If you had only bought Swiss Francs (backed by gold) you would not have lost half your fortune.”

“But these are government bonds. Won’t they pay back?”

“The government that issued them no longer exists.”

In the United States, we have been in a very, very fortunate position. Our currency has been only ravaged by inflation and political theft over the years. We’ve been able to print up large quantities of dollars and just ship them over to people in other countries and they send us iPhones™ and soccer balls made by 12 year-olds since they apparently don’t have printing presses. Or because they have excess 12 year-olds.

Honestly, I’ve had 12 year-olds around the house, and I think one 12-year-old constitutes an excess 12-year-old.

Also, little kids from Nigeria are trying to give him US FIVE MILLION COOKYS.

Many currencies, like the Russian ruble, have been rendered nearly worthless nearly immediately by geopolitical events. That event is coming for the dollar.

I can’t tell you the date. I can’t give you the exact circumstances. But I will tell you that Charles Munger (Warren Buffet’s buddy) was in an interview where he flat out said that the dollar is eventually going to zero. The interviewer missed the point – when a currency implodes and goes to zero there is shock. There is starvation.

There are civil wars. There are revolutions.

But I can tell you after 2020, 2021, and now 2022 so far . . . change is in the air.

Author: John

Nobel-Prize Winning, MacArthur Genius Grant Near Recipient writing to you regularly about Fitness, Wealth, and Wisdom - How to be happy and how to be healthy. Oh, and rich.

34 thoughts on “When Change Comes”

  4. At the other end of my lifetime love of thoughtful music, here is the brilliant Lana Del Rey with one of her best American Nostalga songs…more poignant today than ever before, set to videos from the Italian movie Malena.

    1. No offense Ricky, but as woman I didn’t have Lana Del Rey’s charms to distract me from the the depressing (on so many levels) theme. I usually read this as I eat my breakfast. Pancakes and depressing are not to be combined.

  6. This makes me shudder. I have IRA-type investments, Teacher pensions, and Social Security. All government-issued, or in dollars.
    If push comes to shove, in the short term, I should be OK-ish. I doubt that the dollar will collapse just that fast. First, inflation will cause its chaos.
    Second, the Entitled Elite will want the time to take its money out of the system.
    Third, if the End looks Near, I can liquidate the investments, and pay off the house. And, use the rest to stock up on tools (I’m thinking a couple of stills – liquor makes a EOTW substitute for cash).
    But, yeah – cr@p.

    1. Get the stills now, Linda.

      When the End looks Near enough for you to realize it’s time to liquidate, the line to do so will already be around the block.

      1929 said to tell you “Hi!”.

  7. …just ask Roseanne…”

    She should have stuck with being the temporary mayor on Portlandia. Her most brilliant edict was outlawing laptops and tablets in coffee houses.

  8. “I saw Vanilla Ice at the local arena recently. He sold me a hot dog”. I got a needed laugh from that one.

    Burning paper. I have seen all the burn it down comments over time. I even say it to myself sometimes. Pretty sure the consequences would be the same as after the fall of the Roman empire but the empire did disappear.

    What ever the outcome of this fourth turning is, I hope it burns all the people and the problems they have created. The hard times will create strong men who will create good times again. 4 pieces to that saying just like 4 turnings. Average, 25 years each.

  9. But I can tell you after 2020, 2021, and now 2022 so far . . . change is in the air.

    there will be no such change in the air. Coins are too heavy.

    What there will be, is greenbacks in the air, blowing down the street as far as the eye can see.

    The moment when all US currency is confederate money isn’t a pleasant thing to contemplate.
    People with actual money will be better off, but only as long as there’s something to buy with it.
    Never forget, brass and lead are precious metals too.
    Just ask Zelensky.

  10. Dank meme spotted-pics in four corners of Jo Jo Brandon, Marie A. Pelousy, Mittens Carpetbagger, Hanoi Heinz Kerry, with arrows pointing to them and in the middle it says…imagine the odds of all four having children working for Ukrainian energy companies.
    When change comes keep some extra loaded magazines and a fresh pack of underwear and socks and whatever you do don’t waste good vodka by pouring it out.

  11. Gold may have been $35 an ounce, but that was sort of academic when you for forbidden to own it. From the time FDR issued his executive order through WW2, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, and then into Nixon’s term, US citizens could only own gold as jewelry (or collectible antique coins?) No one could buy/sell gold at $35/oz. You could still track inflation through other measurements, though, such as wages and hamburgers. Not oil, though, since it’s always had its own boom/bust cycles.

  12. If you are one of those that embrace the “burn it all down” narrative, just consider that you are endorsing Step 1 of the 2-Step process, where Step 2 is “Build Back Better”. You think that might be what someone wants?

    1. I’m a drop of water in front of a title wave. It doesn’t matter what I endorse, but I see the power of the wave coming.

        1. (Shakes head) Thus the power of proof reading. Before a main post goes up I generally find 15 of those.

    2. The doom is coming, will we or nil we. How to respond to it is the important part now.
      Remember, it only takes one side to start a war. We’ve been at war for generations, and our common enemies have been winning while our side has refused to admit that there was a war on. (Admitting that you have a problem is the first step to recovery.)

  13. “But these are government bonds. Won’t they pay back?”

    “The government that issued them no longer exists.”

    ———————————————————————–

    This is the monetary equivalent of a company offering a ‘lifetime warranty’ of their product or service.

    Sounds good – but what are the odds the company will be in business 20, or even 10 years from now?

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