Does A 1904 Geopolitical Theory Explain The War In Ukraine?

“I don’t recognize him, but judging by the head-to-toe denim, I say he’s either not American or deeply American. I’m thinking Ukraine or Kentucky.” – Brooklyn Nine Nine

You would think that an octopus would go to war well-armed?

When I look at the war in Ukraine and other world events, I see evidence of Sir Halford John Mackinder.  It would have been cool if he was the frontman for a 1910s version of Judas Priest, but no.  Mackinder was a guy who thought long and hard about mountains, deserts, oceans, steppes, and wars.  You could tell Mackinder was going to be good at geography, what with that latitude.  The result of all this pondering was what he called the Heartland Theory, which was the founding moment for geopolitics.

What’s geopolitics?  It’s the idea that one of the biggest influencers in human history (besides being human) was the geography we inhabit.  Mackinder’s first version wasn’t very helpful, since he just ended up with “Indonesia” and the rest of the world, which he called “Outdonesia”.

Mackinder focused mainly on the Eurasian continent.  Flat land with no obstacles meant, in Mackinder’s mind, that the land would be eventually ruled by a single power.  Jungles and swamps could be a barrier, but eventually he thought that technology would solve that.  Mountains?  Mountains were obstacles that stopped invasions, and allowed cultures to develop independently.  Even better than a mountain?

I crossed a dog and an antenna once.  I got a golden receiver.

An island.

There’s even a theory (not Mackinder’s) that the independent focus on freedom flourished in England because the local farmers weren’t (after the Angles, Saxons, Jutes, Mormons, and Vikings were done pillaging) subject to invasion and were able to develop a culture based on a government with limited powers, along with rights invested in every man.

Mackinder went further, though.  He saw the combination of Eurasia and Africa as something he called the World Island.  If the World Island came under the domination of a single power, he thought, it would eventually rule the rest of the world – it would have overwhelming resources and population, and it would have the ability to outproduce (both economically and militarily) everything else.

“Pivot Area” is what Mackinder first called the Heartland.

Mackinder, being English, had seen the Great Game in the 1900s, which in many cases was a fight to keep Russia landlocked.  The rest of Europe feared a Russia that had access to the sea.

Conversely, Russia itself was the Heartland of the Mackinder’s World Island.  Russia was separated and protected on most of its borders by mountains and deserts.  On the north, Russia was protected by the Arctic Ocean, which is generally more inaccessible than most of Joe Biden’s recent memories.

Russia is still essentially landlocked.  The Soviet Navy had some nice submarines, but outside of that, the Russians have never been a naval power, and the times Russia attempted to make a navy have been so tragically inept that well, let me give an example:

The sea Battle of Tsushima between the Japanese and Russians in 1905 was a Japanese victory.  The Japanese lost 117 dead, 583 wounded, and lost 3 torpedo boats.

But the Russian Seals did work just for the halibut.

The Russians?  They lost 5,045 dead, 803 injured, 6,016 captured, 6 battleships sunk, 2 battleships captured.  The Russians sank 450 ton of the Japanese Navy.  The Japanese sunk 126,792 tons of the Russian fleet.

Yup.  This was more lopsided than a fight between a poodle and a porkchop.

Mackinder noted that the Heartland (Russia) was built on land power.  The Rimlands (or, on the map “Inner Crescent”) were built on sea power.  In the end, almost all of the twentieth century was built on keeping Russia away from the ocean, and fighting over Eastern Europe.

Why?

In Mackinder’s mind, “Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland (Russia); Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; Who rules the World Island commands the World.”  In one sense, it’s true.

Mackinder finally in 1943 came up with another idea, his first idea being lonely.  I think he could see the way World War II was going to end, so he came up with the idea that if the United States were to team up with Western Europe, they could still command the Rimlands and contain the Soviet Union to the Heartland.

There are several reasons that the United States has responded with such an amazing amount of aid to Ukraine.  $33 billion dollars?  Some people don’t work a whole year and get that much money.

Crimea River?  No, Crimea Peninsula.

No, the idea is to bleed Putin as deeply and completely as they can.  Why?  If they’re following Mackinder, this keeps Russia vulnerable.  It keeps Eastern Europe from being under Russia’s control – if you count the number of “Battles of Kiev” or “Battles of Kharkov” you can see that it’s statistically more likely to rain artillery in Kiev than rain water.

This might be the major driver for Russia, too.  A Russian-aligned (or at least neutral) Ukraine nicely plugs the Russian southern flank.  And this is nearly the last year that Russia can make this attempt – the younger generation isn’t very big, and the older generation that built and can run all of the cool Soviet tech?

Looks like Nirvana killed the Russian sex drive?

They’re dying off.  Soon all their engineers with relevant weapons manufacturing experience will be . . . dead.  If Russia is going to attempt to secure the south, this is their only shot.  Depending on how vulnerable the Russians think they are, the harder they’ll fight.  NATO nations tossing in weapons isn’t helping the famous Russian paranoia.

I think that the United States, in getting cozy with China in the 1970s, was following along with Mackinder’s theory – I believe Mackinder himself said that a Chinese-Russian alliance could effectively control the Heartland and split the Rimland, given China’s access to the oceans.

And that’s what China is doing now, with the Belt and Road Initiative.  Remember Mackinder’s World Island?  Here’s a map of the countries participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Never forget China’s national sport:  hard labor.

Spoiler alert:  It’s the world island.

 

Belt and Road Map:  By Owennson – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0

Author: John

Nobel-Prize Winning, MacArthur Genius Grant Near Recipient writing to you regularly about Fitness, Wealth, and Wisdom - How to be happy and how to be healthy. Oh, and rich.

39 thoughts on “Does A 1904 Geopolitical Theory Explain The War In Ukraine?”

  1. In 10,000 years, once the fallout has dies down and the survivors come out of the deep mines to become historians again, a pivot point in all of this is gonna be seen as Sweden and Finland abandoning “neutrality” and diving headfirst into the “open arms” of NATO membership within weeks of Putin punishing Ukraine for trying to join NATO. America agreeing to defend with nukes a new 800 mile Arctic border with Russia, shoulder to shoulder with a nation that has fewer people than Colorado? What could possibly go wrong? It’s not like Ukraine could get tac nuked as a sabre rattling exercise to make NATO think twice….

      1. Russia: “All we want from you is to not join NATO. As long as you stay neutral, there will be peace between us.”
        Georgia, Ukraine, Finland, Sweden: “Okay. We’ll join NATO.”

      2. The only way Russia would be a threat to Finland is if Finland joins NATO so that of course is exactly what Finland is planning on doing. When your nation is run by a party girl dingbat vegetarian, it makes sense I guess.

  2. Russia just about HAS to take over the flat areas near it, or risk its security. Russia’s only real defense is the hellaceous winters, that have stopped – cold (pun intended) – all invaders, so far.

    As for Africa, it’s a prime example of a continent that has:
    – Amazing, and beautiful geography
    – Natural resources to beat the band
    – An environment made for cattle grazing, not agriculture
    – An incredibly overpopulated landscape
    – A culture that deifies family connections, though they drag down ambitious individuals
    – A host of embedded scoundrels, crooks, and layabouts, that are determined to Get What They Think is Theirs – no matter how that kills the cow

    Kim du Toit had the best explanation of the continent – https://www.kimdutoit.com/2017/05/05/let-africa-sink/

    The Chinese will find out several things, as they work to extract the wealth of Africa:
    – The Natives may be corrupt, but they ain’t stupid. They will PLAY the Chinese, and get their hands on as much of the money as is possible.
    – The Chinese that are posted there will be sucked into that morass of corruption; they will bring back the rot, which will infect and destroy China.
    – The wealth will largely disappear on the way back to China. Chinese efficiency is no match for African resourcefulness.
    – It will be years, more likely decades, before they can make a profit. They don’t have that long – their own economy is in near-free fall.
    – The possibility of wealth will attract the worst of the Chinese (as it did the Europeans). The corrupt, the addicts, the layabouts, the sexual freaks – look into the awfulness of the ‘Happy Valley Set’ – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Happy_Valley_set

    2. The Africans are both corrupt and stupid. History shows this.

      China isn’t America. They don’t really intend to make money in Africa. They simply want to extract all the natural resources they can from there. If they can make a few yen selling junk to the natives while they’re doing that, it’s just gravy.

      China is investing in foreign land, not foreign people. They’re buying strategic seaports all around the world, and then staffing them with their own people. They bought the Panama Canal decades ago as a test run.

    3. ““And when the Chinese send forces to retake Savannah?” MacRae asked.
      “They won’t,” she replied, turning left to look at him. “Their neo-colonial experiment in Africa is bleeding them. They don’t see what I see. Their economy is on a knife’s edge. Ria or no, they have none of us to speak for them, to lead them.”
      “Who’s ‘us’?” Klimt asked.
      “My kind,” Faustina tapped her sternum with her right thumb. “The next phase of human evolution.”

      https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08PY26S6H/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i5

    4. Don’t forget Russia’s big advantage – being huge with really, really bad roads.

      “The vastness of Russia consumes us.” – Von Rundstedt

  4. John, Mackinder was (as I recall) somewhat responsible for creating the field of Political Geography. I took a class as an undergraduate and it was one of the most influential classes of my entire educational career. Completely changed how I viewed the world.

    2. He was the founder. Not to say he was perfect, but he found a new way to look at the world . . .

  6. First heard of Mackinder several years ago. With jet planes, missiles, et al. it appears to be approaching irrelevancy. For that matter there was zero air power at the time of his theory.

    Oh, there was some air power…ballons. And the Goodrich™ Blimp.

    1. Air power changes things – missiles make it so power can be projected nearly instantaneously (an hour is very quick). Information, though, is faster.

      And don’t forget good old fashioned cash . . .

  7. Kiev was never all that critical to the Russian plan, but the corridor to Crimea and the Black Sea? That was the prize. As usual the U.S. “media” and an awful lot of bloggers have focused on the wrong area.

  8. “Pivot area.”
    “Rimlands.”

    Do you think Mackinder renamed all these after that time he accidentally wandered into the gay bar in Soho, Westminster?

  9. Does anyone else wonder if Russia is hoping for more pro Western governments to contribute arms to Ukraine, then storm it good an proper so that the Western forces not only have less arms, but also allows these arms to fall to Russia ? The U.S. supplied the Taliban in Afghanistan

    1. And the Russians have captured a lot of Western stuff, so far. I think if they have the southern flank bottled up? They’re happy.

  10. A more simple explanation is the USA (and West in general) wants the Ukraine situation to go on and on so the consequences of jabbing themselves in the back of their heads, backs, and feet can be blamed on someone other than themselves. Putin bad! All praise to The Narrative!

    1. It does make it easier to reprogram, though Row V. Wade is the current (literal) rage.

  11. Putin is the same as rulers of the past. He has the same goals, a willingness to kill for his continuance of power, and will face an unwillingness of his people to suffer for his ego. Resources are limited, the surrounding countries are resisting, and how desperate he’ll become is to be seen. Personally, I don’t feel he will stop at anything. His downfall will be by a coup, or assassination.

  13. Naw…just a must have WAR for a fading flaming pantless chaps rump ranger fake and gay abomination of desolation as its fiat currency and operating system get flushed down the globalist drain.
    These things happen in banana republic worldwide laughingstocks “led” by a chimpy Kenyan bath house glory hole server and his merry band of Marxist/Bolshevik rump rangers with their YMCA lead us to 1000 years of glorious victories bestest MIL evarz.

  14. Excellent, just wonderful analysis. All the different groups of aristocrats, f*cking each other over for their own benefit. Never liked the rooskies, but liked the european elites even less. And Bidet, err, biden.

    Eat the rich.

    1. None of them are interested in anything more than power. Not sure a single one of them is happy, either.

  15. I heard an author advancing the idea that one of Russia’s motivations is that population graphic you show (second to last). He posits there aren’t enough ethnic Russians to staff an army and fight a war. Russia is going extinct.

    Ukraine is the country with second largest population of ethnic Russians in the world. They need the source.

    1. Hungary has shown us the way to population growth. Small changes in government policy lead to profound changes in the culture downstream.
      (If you don’t believe that, try denying a gay wedding cake.)

    2. Exceptional point. Also: doesn’t hurt it has great fossil fuel reserves in the eastern part.

  16. Gonna have to study up on this ole Mackinder fella.

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