The Leftist War on Culture: Comedy Edition

“I woke up on the floor of some Japanese family’s rec room, and they would not stop screaming.” – Anchorman

WOKETREK

I hear William Shatner hates one pie:  Pe-Khaaaaaaan.

I like movies.  And I like television.  Up until recently, I used to read a lot of fiction books; now I read a lot more non-fiction.  Together, along with the news we read and the Internet sites we visit, this defines the core of our mythology, our legends, and our shared experiences outside of religion.

When The Mrs. watches movies she likes to watch them for characters – how people react and change based on the circumstances that they encounter.  That seems to fascinate her, probably because The Mrs. is a human.  Me?  I like to watch movies for new ideas and new information.  Billions of people have fallen in love, but how many have thought of a new idea?  Ideas catch my interest, which might explain The Mrs.’ cute nickname for me:  Soulless Human-Looking Robot.

But movies today, frankly, suck.  They’re awful.  Not all of them, mind you, but a big majority.  Seeing a good one is rare enough today that it actually surprises me when I see one that I like.  For the most part, what passes for a “good” movie is just one that doesn’t actively disappoint me.  The Mrs. rarely goes to movies, and even before Coronavirus made Netflix® the king of media, she just stopped going to movies in about 2014 or 2015.

NETFLIX

I had to stop talking to a friend who said that Netflix® was the cheapest streaming service.  I just can’t be around a Hulu™-cost denier.

About that time was another event:  the functional disappearance of an entire movie genre:  the comedy.  What happened to comedy?  Since the year 2000, there have been a total of 45 comedy movies that have grossed over $100 million (in adjusted 2000 dollars) at the box office.  The last comedy to hit this threshold was in 2015.  So, the numbers prove it – comedy is currently deader than a Clinton opponent.

The strange reason that this is happening is that comedy movies just aren’t funny anymore.  It’s not that I’ve lost my sense of humor:  objectively the movies aren’t funny.  Audiences have largely abandoned them.  America clearly has an appetite for humor, there were 45 comedy films that that made over $100 million between 2000 and 2015, but the numbers keep dropping over time:  comedy movies used to take in about 20% of the box office.  In 2019, comedy was down to 6.6% of the market.

So, why are comedies not funny anymore?  The audiences haven’t changed:  teenage boys are still teenage boys.  So, it must be the movies.

When you look at the movies, they’ve gone from broad comedies that focus on making people laugh to either comedies that are created to push a particular viewpoint or comedies that depend on getting humor from extremely explicit sexual content.  Certainly, there are good sexy jokes – remember you’re reading a post from the person who invented bikini economics graphs.  But, like anything, there’s a line.  And I’m not alone in being happy that Zack and Miri Make a Porno could have just as easily been titled Zack and Miri Make No Money since it did so poorly at the box office.

Another reason is that comedy is dangerous to the Left.  To paraphrase a J. Michael Straczynski and Neil Gaiman Babylon 5 script, “Comedians say serious things and get a laugh, politicians say silly things and people take them seriously.”   At some level, great comedy is about telling a truth, but an uncomfortable truth.  That’s the reason that Stalin didn’t allow real humor in the Soviet Union.  It’s the same reason that Jerry SeinfFeld said he won’t do comedy shows at colleges – the woke crowd wants to hear humor, but only the jokes they find politically acceptable, regardless of the truth.

HTTM

Obligatory Stalin Joke:  One day Stalin decides to go to the cinema in disguise and hear what people are really saying about him.  When the newsreel comes on the audience stands up and applauds each time he appears on the screen. Stalin is pleased. Modestly, he himself remains seated. After a few moments the man next to him leans over and whispers:  “Most people feel the same way you do Comrade, but you’ll be safer if you stand up.”

Sadly, the failure of comedies seems to apply to movies as a whole now – the movie industry growth has been stagnant since 2012 or so.  I think it’s tied back to the same reason, Leftists feeling that movies should be explicit carriers of Leftist politics.  Movies can have a point, but they have to have the politically correct point.  They can be poignant or uplifting, but only in a Leftist-approved way that involves someone saying, “But I’m a lesbian” during the movie, though most of the time the other patrons tell me to shut up.  Movies are crafted so they don’t allow the audience to come to conclusions outside of those approved by Hollywood and the globalist Left.

And it’s been getting worse.  By most measures, the last three Star Wars® films have been the worst of the franchise.  Sure, The Force Awakens® got big box office numbers, but that was primarily because people were so excited to see a new Star Wars™ film that they would have spent money to go see Chewbacca® having lice combed out of his hair for three hours.

ROSE

There was a movie about Chewbacca® making vases out of porcelain.  It was called Hairy Potter.

But Star Wars® became something different after Disney© bought it.  It became woke.  The main character was a girl.  I’m okay with that.  But in this case, the girl had powers far in excess of, well, anyone.  After merely touching a lightsaber® and never having trained with it, she defeated a man who had trained with one for years.

Yeah.  I would rather have watched the Wookie™ be de-loused.

To cap off The Force Awakens, a thoroughly uncharismatic group of characters with no chemistry defeated yet another Death Star™ in a way that was so memorable I can’t recall it.  Heck they might have unplugged it for all I remember, but I certainly do know that Luke Skywalker® didn’t drop a torpedo into a reactor exhaust.   When I left the theater after The Force Awakens, I was done with Star Wars®.  For good.  What had generally been a dependably fun series of movies was gone.

But having a series of movies is now the norm.  Movies had become a batch of either remakes of old movies or movies in a franchise.  Since 2000, 119 movies (at least) have been released as part of a franchise.  23 of those are Marvel® franchise movies.  And, I’ll admit that in many instances those franchise movies have been entertaining.  But after 23 movies, I think we’ve reached Peak Marvel™, since they’re quickly becoming woke, too.  The final straw for many will probably be Thor, who is reportedly going to be replaced by a woman, and Ironman®, who will be replaced by Nic Cage in a suit he made out of old Coors Light™ cans.

Understand – it’s not enough to create a new character, the Left wants to destroy existing characters by replacing them utterly:  2016’s Ghostbusters is another example.  I think these changes are because Hollywood simply cannot help itself.  For the longest time they were content to make money while slowly changing culture to the Left.  Now?  The message that seems to be seeping in is that there is a need to pay for the sins of humanity even if it costs the studio money.  Who should pay for those sins?  Well, not the filmmakers.  Really, it’s just the people they don’t like.

YACHT

Don’t forget, celebrities are just like us!

And why?  There has been a push to replace the dominant culture in the United States.  That includes replacing old taboos with new ones that reflect the new culture the Left is seeking.  The main idea is that you can do anything and there should be no repercussions.  This especially includes sex, where the purely physical has been raised to the level of the sacred and there is no whim that shouldn’t be not only tolerated, but celebrated.  This also includes career choices, where every Grievance Studies graduate with no discernible skills should be given a living wage, complete health care, and the respect that they feel that they deserve, paid for by you and me.

This is really an infantilizing of the culture:  it’s the promotion of the idea that whatever urge you have should be indulged.  The Mrs. described it as a culture of spoiled children with daddy issues:  the fault is with their boss.  Or their boyfriend/girlfriend.  Or their parents.  Or society.  It’s never their fault.

In this instance, it’s easier to blame a Civil War general or a Founding Father than to blame themselves for their condition.  The result?  Pull down a statue, and complain about Thomas Jefferson.

JEFFERSON

I was named after Thomas Jefferson.  He was named a very long time ago, so you were probably named after he was, too.

This spirit has even invaded books.  I used to pick up a science fiction book at random in the book store and feel that there was a good chance that I’d be exposed to new ideas and have fun in the process.  More recently, a lot of the books have become a slog.  I wondered if it was me.  I then picked up some stories written a few decades ago, and was pleased.  It wasn’t me.  Those old stories had more ideas and fun in a typical paragraph than most novels do today.  Today, the novels seem all about preaching and explaining how awful people are.  Back then, even though we faced a daily threat of nuclear annihilation, those stories were more positive about mankind and our future than the ones I see today.

We are in the midst of a concerted effort by the Left to destroy the culture we live in and the values it stands for.  Old writers, old statesmen, and old heroes are all being viewed through the lens of the new culture and the new values in an effort to destroy them for sins they never committed.  The Left understands the stakes:  until they destroy the old culture and values, they will be judged by the old standards.

And they know they will be found wanting.  Especially their comedy movies.

Those are just awful.

Stalingrad, Democide, and Maybe The Government Isn’t Here To Help You?

“What does a Nietzschean mother hope for her son when she names him Genghis Stalin?” – Andromeda

JOBICIDE

Actual Joke From the USSR (via Wikipedia©):  Stalin reads his report to the Party Congress. Suddenly someone sneezes. “Who sneezed?” Silence. “First row! On your feet! Shoot them!” They are shot, and he asks again, “Who sneezed, Comrades?” No answer. “Second row! On your feet! Shoot them!” They are shot too. “Well, who sneezed?” At last a sobbing cry resounds in the Congress Hall, “It was me! Me!” Stalin says, “Bless you, Comrade!” and resumes his speech.

In August of 1942, the civilian inhabitants of Stalingrad probably totaled about a million people.  That number included the normal residents, but also a huge influx of Soviet refugees caused by the Axis push through the Ukraine.  However, the German Army Group: South was on the attack, and had been pushing toward Stalingrad for weeks.

According to Google Maps™ at the end of July, 1942, Stalingrad was less than a nine hour stroll from the German position.  I assume that includes a lunch and bathroom break and maybe a juice box at halftime, but you never can tell since those Germans were sticklers for keeping to the schedule.  Besides, I’m not sure that the Germans had good cell reception at that point, so they might have had to ask for directions.

Stalin decided that the Soviet soldiers would fight best if they had their backs to a city filled with innocent civilians, so he had absolutely forbidden any evacuation of Stalingrad.  At least, any evacuation of people.  The Soviets did take the time to get the grain, cattle, and railway cars out of Stalingrad.  At least Stalin had his priorities straight, right?  I mean, railway cars don’t eat and don’t complain.

JETSKI

Popular German Joke During Stalingrad:  Our troops have captured a two-room apartment with kitchen, toilet and bathroom, and managed to hold two-thirds of the apartment, despite heavy enemy counterattack.

Not evacuating the inhabitants of Stalingrad was entirely consistent with Stalin’s fun loving and carefree personality.  Stalin insisted that his own firstborn son become a Soviet artillery officer.  When Stalin’s boy was captured by the Germans in the first few days after Operation Barbarossa kicked off and then rolled over Soviet troops like the media over inconvenient stories about Joe Biden, Stalin was upset.

Why?

Stalin was upset that his son hadn’t killed himself rather than be captured.  So, yeah, Stalin wasn’t exactly a sentimental guy, but at least he was consistent.  And he was consistent throughout decades.  Between 1917 and 1987, the Soviet Union was responsible for (roughly) 62 million deaths of their own people.  All but 6 million of those deaths occurred while Stalin was in some position of high leadership.

I guess you can’t make an omelet without breaking a few Kulaks, right? (Stalin’s Cannibal Island and Distracted Driving)

VALENTINE

Sadly, Stalin’s line of Stalin-themed lingerie was less than successful, probably because it was made of unwashed wool and aluminum shavings.

I think I first understood the joke, “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help you,” when I was about 10 years old.  It displays a pretty simple sentiment that was common in the rural area where I grew up:  government wasn’t the solution to our problems, government was the problem.  Reagan used both of those phrases during his campaign and inaugural address, but he could have been speaking for most of the farmers who had coffee in the local café.

Now, sure, those farmers were fine taking the government’s money, but what they didn’t like was when government told them what to do.  From the farmers’ perspective, government was out of control even back in Reagan’s 1980.  Those farmers had grown up in a different world:  when they were young, say 12, they could have saved up enough money from their paper route or whatever Pa paid them to milk the cows, and marched down to the local hardware store and purchased a .22 rifle of their very own along with a box of ammo to go shooting with their friends.

Not at their friends, with their friends.  City folks in the current year still can’t seem to figure that one out.

WACO

I tried to look up “ATF jokes” on Google®, but all Google™ would do was show me pictures of the ATF agents who planned the Waco operation.

The dads of those kids could go into the hardware store and purchase dynamite, without a license or even a reason.  Want to build a dam on your own property?  Go for it, though the states might have a rule or two if they ever caught you, which they probably wouldn’t.  Want to build a combination strip club and church on your own land?  It’s a free country, ain’t no one stopping you.  Endangered species?  Well, there was probably a reason for that – if it were tough enough or not so darn tasty, they would be fine.

In 1952, there were roughly 20,000 pages of Federal regulations in the “Code of Federal Regulations” – the big book that has all of the rules.  In 2020?  There are roughly 180,000 pages.  Of rules.  That’s (using my estimates) nearly two words of regulation for every person in the United States.  My two are promulgate and trout.  And you can go to jail for violating many of the regulations on those 180,000 pages.  Why do we need 160,000 more pages of regulations than in 1950?

Control.

How are you supposed to keep track of that many rules?  I’ve heard that “ignorance of the law is no excuse,” so I’m thinking that the people in America must be psychic, because there’s no way that any single person could know what they’re either:

  • required to do or
  • prohibited from doing or
  • free to do.

It’s actually the preferred end state of government:  everything is either prohibited or mandatory, and thus you can selectively prosecute anyone for anything at any time.  Everyone is guilty, and like Stalin’s buddy and head of the secret police, Lavrentiy Pavlovich Beria, said:  “Show me the man and I’ll show you the crime.”  Everyone’s guilty – it’s just a matter of picking the person you want to prosecute.

But one man at a time?  That’s how amateurs operate.

REGULATE

Government regulations:  keeping you safe from trucks that might be slightly taller than a number written in a book by a regulator who has never seen a truck.

When I spent time last year researching the causes of death between 1900 and 2000 (In the World Murder Olympics, Communists Take Gold and Silver!), one statistic popped out: 262 million people were killed by their own government.  That’s more that every murder in the twentieth century, and more than every person killed in every war during that same period.  More people were killed by their own government than were killed in every natural disaster during that century.  It’s almost governments could use a warning label.  Oh, wait, government regulations are what mandate the warning labels.

WARNING

I’d post this warning, but the font is probably not legally the right size.

Thankfully, the decline in deaths caused by government decreased when communism ceased to be an active ideology.  The end of the Soviet empire was one event, and the death of Mao and the adoption of a capitalist incentives in a still authoritarian China was another that made the citizens of the world their own nations safer.

But what led to those ideologies taking over in the first place?  Generally, four things.

  • An Economic Crisis
  • A Governmental Power Vacuum
  • A Civil War
  • The Idea That Equality of Outcome Is More Important Than Equality of Opportunity

It’s ironic that the two countries both at the forefront of killing their own citizens advertised themselves as the most equal in human history, but not surprising.  Stalin and Mao did their part to create an equal society – one where anyone could be killed at any time for any reason.  They were also the reason a word was invented:  Democide.

GULAG

Well, they all look equal to me.

Democide means, in a really short definition, your government deciding you’re wasting too much of your country’s valuable oxygen.  It doesn’t matter why.  It’s that your government decides that’ it’s not them, it’s you.  It doesn’t mean the Russians killing German soldiers.  It doesn’t include the Germans bombing the Russians, soldiers or not.  It includes the Russians killing Russian civilians.  It also includes the Russians killing German civilians after they take over the places where the Germans were living, and vice-versa.  So, Stalin didn’t kill only Russians, but that was who he was most fond of killing.  And Mao?  Mao pretty much exclusively killed Chinese during his bouts of democide, perhaps because take-out had yet to be invented.

If you want to look more into it, here’s a website devoted to it (LINK).  It has the look of a Geocities website circa 1996, and some of the links that the site points to have been Clintoned:  abandoned like Bill’s ex-girlfriends and eliminated like Hillary’s enemies.  The site, however does lays out the numbers of dead for governments that decide that there are just too damn many of their own people hanging around.  Did I say hanging?  Sorry, poor choice of words.

EQUALITY

Reprinted with permission.

Stalingrad’s number of civilians dead “officially” was 40,000.  But it’s thought that 40,000 died just on the first day of German bombing back in August of 1942.  A more credible estimate is that up to half a million civilians died during the six month battle.  These citizens aren’t even listed in Stalin’s total above – these are “just” war dead, and not attributed to the Soviets.

Whew.  I bet Stalin would be pretty embarrassed if it took the Soviet total up to 62.5 million instead of just 62 million.

Why do I bring this up now?  Hmm.  No reason.

None at all.

Civil War 2.0 Weather Report, Issue 12: Censorship and COVID-19

“You were going to bed hungry, scrounging for scraps. Your planet was on the brink of collapse. I’m the one who stopped that. You know what’s happened since then? The children born have known nothing but full bellies and clear skies. It’s a paradise.” – Avengers: Infinity War

CLOCK

After several years of looking, I found a book on Amazon® about how clocks work.  It’s about time.

  1. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
  2. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  3. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures.  Just in case.
  4. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.

The clock didn’t move this month for the third month in a row.  That’s good.  But I see pressure building up quickly.

In this issue:  Front Matter – Violence and Censorship Update – Steps On the Way to Revolt – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – The Real Story: Economic Collapse – Links

Welcome to Issue 12 of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month.  Here are the links to the previous issues:  Issue One (LINK), Issue Two (LINK), Issue Three (LINK), Issue Four (LINK), Issue Five (LINK), Issue Six (LINK), Issue Seven (LINK), Issue Eight (LINK), Issue Nine (LINK), Issue Ten (LINK), and Issue Eleven (LINK).

Violence and Censorship Update

April was a big month for censorship.  Like a toddler in a Toys’r’Us™, Facebook® and YouTube© decided this was the month to crack down on speech they didn’t agree with.  And that speech was from the Left.  Just kidding.  It’s never a crackdown on the Left.  Who did they go after?

Well, David Icke was shut down.  I like listening to David Icke, because I sincerely think that he believes that shape-shifting reptilian aliens run the governments of the world.  As in Queen Elizabeth II is a secret lizard lady.  That is WWE© level of conspiracy, and it sure makes 40 minutes of treadmill time go faster listening to it.  But now, he’s gone.  His sin?  Nothing to do with lizards.  Nothing to do with the Queen.  No, Mr. Icke committed the sin of breaking the party line on COVID-19.

ALIEN

When WHO makes David Icke look reasonable.

In fact, any YouTube® video that puts forward an opinion that differs from the World Health Organization (WHO) will be removed.  Do it too often?  Your channel is banned.  For life.

I must admit that I am a sinner in committing heresy against the WHO.  In May, 2019, I did a frighteningly good post (The Who, The WHO, Cavemen, Child Labor, and We Won’t Get Fooled Again) about their silliness in describing “Burnout” and “Gaming Disorder” as new plagues that were going to destroy mankind.  To quote me at the time:  “When a cell behaves like the WHO and most other government agencies do, it’s called cancer.”  Yup, that’s probably enough for the YouTube® ban hammer.

But now it seems that having an opinion different than the WHO is enough to bring the full weight of Leftist censorship down.  There were several doctors that disagreed with the WHO, and they were shut down, even though the WHO’s opinion on COVID-19 has been proven wrong again and again and again.  And that is scary.  The WHO (and the CDC, who I skewered in the post (The CDC, Raw Cookie Dough, and Sexy Theocracy)) have proven to be little more than government agencies that have lost their primary mission in a race to pander to news outlets to secure funding.

Facebook™ announced it was not only trying to get rid of COVID-19 “misinformation” by deleting posts, but also was actively censoring people trying to use it to organize “end the quarantine” events.  That was chilling.  You may or may not agree with these protests, but the idea of peacefully petitioning government is a clear right.  Libertarians and (increasingly) Leftists will make the argument that “Facebook® is a private company and can do whatever they want.  Nanner-nanner.”

But know them by their works.  They want your data.  They want to market you as a product.  A compliant product for them to sell.  And, it appears, snitch on you if you are a bad-thinker.

WATER

He only needed a sip.  Zucculents are excellent at storing water and can thrive in areas with dry climate.

Likewise, the Unz Review (LINK) got kicked off of Facebook®.  Ron Unz’s website is a hotbed of controversial thought that’s not afraid of challenging almost any opinion:  I’ve read a lot there I disagree with.  The owner of the site, Ron Unz, does not stand behind every article published – it would be impossible because many of them are 100% contradictory to each other.  But, even though I disagree with a lot I’ve seen there, I’ve learned a lot there that I never would anywhere else.  I’m surprised Unz lasted this long on Facebook™.

Where does this censorship take us?  Nowhere good, since after the first censorship, taking down the next site becomes easier and easier.  It’s for the public good, after all.  Can’t have people thinking unapproved thoughts, right?

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time.  They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings.  As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that lead to the index.  On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

April was a difficult month for the economy, and that shows up in the graphs.  I don’t think that May will be quite as bad, but I’ve been wrong before.  I did, however, try to spend significant time on selection of the bikini pictures to accompany the graphs, since I want to at least reach the journalist integrity of the New York Times®.

Violence:

VIOF

Up is more violent.  Violence had been down because everyone is stuck in the basement.  But now the end of quarantine is near, and people will become violent if it isn’t lifted soon.  I expect big upticks in June, July and August.  I think May will be fairly mellow, and might be the last mellow month for ages.

Enjoy it.

Political Instability:

POLF

Up is more unstable.  Instability is down – having the field reduced to two likely candidates for the November election helps calm people, plus people are advised not to make sudden moves around Joe Biden, since his predator instinct could kick in and he might give you a good sniffing.  Instability will go up if Biden falters or starts drooling oatmeal during an interview.

Economic:

ECOF

Down indicates worse economic conditions.  The graph speaks for itself – I had to search through a LOT of bikini photographs to find one that fit with a plunge like we’ve seen.  I expect April to be better.  But not by a lot.  I’ll likely change the basis of this one or add an entirely new one next month – this is an instantaneous graph to measure mood, and we should start to look at cumulative numbers to measure how screwed we are.  Upside?  One more bikini graph.

Illegal Aliens:

BORF

Down is good, in theory.  This is a statistic showing border apprehensions by the Border Patrol.  Down.  Until Mexico’s economy collapses. Then what?

Economic Collapse – The Real Story

When I first started the weather report, one criticism was that we would never see Civil War 2.0 while things were good economically.  And I admitted that this is true.  As a people I can see limited acts of disobedience, but not outright insurrection while the economy is good.  Full bellies and full bank accounts don’t lead to fighting in the streets.

The economy is in free fall.  That’s not an overstatement.  There has been no month as bad in the world economy as April, 2020, at least not in my life.  Unless you’re in your 80’s or better, this is the worst economic month of your life, too.  To find such a disaster in the United States, you’d have to go back to the 1930’s, at least.

FED

The goat entrails have spoken!  The cure is yet more debt and money printing!

As I’ve mentioned before, a strong economy could take this sort of shock.  Our economy isn’t strong.  Let’s take New York City.  What does it produce?  Debt, real estate sales, insurance companies, financial irregularity, the stock market, and national “journalism” that at best is as biased as a Kennedy mother bailing her kids out of jail.  If New York City were to disappear tomorrow, the only thing from NYC the Wilder Family would miss is the television show Impractical Jokers®.

Yet New York City controls the money flows in the country.  It also controls the bets made on wheat production and pork prices.  NYC produces nothing, but acts as a tax on those that actually produce.  In 1947, the proportion of the economy devoted to Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (F.I.R.E.) was about 10%.  In 2017, it was 20%.  And we do need a certain percentage of our economy devoted to moving money around, but the point of our economy isn’t moving money, it’s making things and feeding people.  Oh, and doing taxes.

Are we richer because of what comes from New York?  Are we more stable?  Does making another loan to a big corporation so they have enough debt on their books so a New York financier can’t buy them with their own money make us better off?  Is it better because the dollars aren’t backed by anything other than a printing press?

NYC

Hey, that might make a good movie.

In that same time period, manufacturing dropped from 25% of the economy to 11%.  Does that make us better off, when critical goods are made an ocean away?  Does that make us more stable and able to weather a crisis?

As the economy collapses, it’s collapsing because it has been hollowed out for decades.  I will say that studies show, before 1980, Democrats were strongly focused on keeping the manufacturing and construction industries strong, since the unions that dominated that sector were lock-step voters for the Democrats.  But, when a shiny new toy of being paid by the big banks plus being able to bring in a whole new class of voters (legal immigrants and illegal aliens) got too big, the Democrats dumped manufacturing and construction.

This collapse has been decades in the making.  It won’t be done quickly.  And it just might provide the pain to slingshot us into Civil War 2.0.

Links

LINKS

All are from Ricky this month . . .  enjoy!

American Factory and Thoughts on the Future American Economy

“China is here, Mr. Burton. The Chang Sing, the Wing Kong?  They’ve been fighting for centuries.” – Big Trouble in Little China

CAMO

I mean, the camo looks so good, maybe they wanted to show it off?

I watched the documentary American Factory this weekend, and it seemed like a good jumping off point to discuss several topics – globalization, employment, and Jenga®.  In 2008, the General Motors® plant in Dayton, Ohio was closed during GM’s© bankruptcy.  According to American Factory (now streaming on Netflix®), 10,000 people in the Dayton area lost their jobs when the factory closed.  In this current climate, I’m trying to come up with more unemployment jokes, but they all need work.

Fast forward to 2016, and a Chinese company, Fuyao Glass America®, started a new business making windshields for cars in the old GM© plant.  Fuyao bought the empty factory and spent on the order of $500 million dollars setting up the glass factory.  Then Fuyao brought hundreds of Chinese supervisors over to start the facility and train the American workers.  This makes sense – you don’t want to come across an ocean and have an employee like me when I sold used cars.  One customer, looking at a minivan, asked me, “Cargo space?”

I answered, “Car no fly.  Car go road.”  Obviously that didn’t go very well.

One of these Chinese supervisors mentioned that he was committed to stay for two years.  This was a father of two, and he’d receive no extra pay for being away from his family.  The Chinese supervisors were sleeping four to an apartment with furniture from the offices supplies aisle at Wal-Mart™.  Living with a roommate is tough.  One roommate suggested I had schizophrenia.  The joke was on him – I didn’t even have a roommate.

POSTER

Poster from the documentary.  That’s it.  No joke.  Move along.

Clips from workers talking as they were just starting their work at Fuyao made it clear that the Fuyao jobs were nowhere near the pay of the GM© jobs:  At GM™, one worker made about $29 an hour in quality control until the plant closed.  In the new Fuyao plant, she made less than $13 an hour.  I talked to a local dog breeder about a summer job for Pugsley.  She said that she only paid in expensive pure-bred puppies.  Pugsley thought about it, and decided it was income-petable.

And the work is tougher than the GM® work was.  The temperature in some parts of the production area was 200°F, or about 63 kilograms.  One worker spent over an hour a shift in ten minute increments in that heat in the furnace room, and the plant safety guy was trying to figure out how to keep him from overheating.  But that level of heat had a plus side:  during the filming I saw two hobbits throw a ring in the furnace room.

What surprised me was that the Chinese gave such access to the people making the documentary.  They caught candid moments with the Fuyao founder, Cao Dewang, (called simply “Chairman Cao”) throughout the documentary.  There were moments where he was clearly doubtful, arrogant, or out of touch.  We all have those moments, but most of the time billionaires try to avoid looking stupid in public.  I mean, except Elon Musk.

ELON

I kid.  I actually admire Mr. Musk, who seems to be able to do what NASA forgot.  Fly people into space.

On starting the plant, production levels were described as “low” so Fuyao took the step of sending several of its plant supervisors to China.  The clash of cultures was obvious at the start of the documentary, but it was during the sequence in China that really showed the difference in the way Americans and Chinese do business.

The conflict started at the first meeting.  All of the Chinese business people were in suits.  Most of the Americans were in jeans and t-shirts – one of them was wearing a Jaws® movie t-shirt.  In what was probably pretty embarrassing for the Americans, in the next scene you see them wearing Fuyao company logo polo shirts.  How did that conversation go?  “Excuse me, perhaps you would be more comfortable in a new company polo shirt and not your mustard-covered t-shirt advertising a forty year old movie?”

But it was far, far beyond just the informal dress that’s common with line supervisors in a factory.  One sequence showed all of the employees singing the corporate anthem.  Another showed line production employees in a line, yelling out productivity slogans and propaganda like Marines responding to R. Lee Ermey when he was a drill instructor.

LUNCH

They were all out of bat.

One of the American supervisors (who had learned Chinese) was bad-mouthing his employees to a Chinese supervisor.  To me, the American supervisor came across as someone who would do anything to make the Chinese like him – he was a suck-up.  After one negative comment about his own team, the Chinese supervisor said, “You should all be united and concentrate your efforts.”  It was a subtle but nuclear insult – the Chinese supervisor was slamming the American for not being united with his own workers.  And the Chinese supervisor was right.

KIM

So, refresh the page.  Am I still dead?

And working in China sounds as bad as I’d expected.  Workers typically only get one or two days off a month – a five day work week hasn’t made it to China yet.  The workers also work 12 hour shifts.  The Chinese want their workers engaged in the company.

In fact, the American supervisors were there for the company annual Chinese New Year party, where the show was put on entirely by the employees.  And as for engaged?  There were several marriages performed at the company party.  One of the Americans was so overcome with the sense of belonging around him that he was as emotional as a teenage girl watching Titanic.  Me?  I like my emotions like I like my beer.  Bottled.

A quick trip through the Fuyao workers union (which is also the company’s communist party headquarters) showed that the division between company, country, party, and worker is non-existent.  The Chinese are certain that they are superior to Americans – several times in the film this is stated by Chinese people on camera.  But they are also very proud of being Chinese – when Chairman Cao was talking to his Chinese employees in America, he told that that no matter where they go, or where they are buried, that first and foremost they will always be Chinese.

China is nationalist, (mostly) ethnically homogeneous, and unambiguously pro-Chinese at the expense of everyone else on the planet.  Work is for the government and the party.  Why are the Muslims in China in reeducation camps?  Because Islam isn’t Chinese.  China is a country built on unity and Islam isn’t on the menu.  And if you’re not on board?

SOUP

Literally.   

Next, Fuyao fired the plant manager when production and profits were too low, but it was probably the lawsuits on safety that sent him over the top.  The plant manager had been an American – they replaced him with a Chinese guy.  I’ve actually seen this in real life in one company I did business with.  When things weren’t going well, the owners fired the American and replaced him with a person from their country.  I mean, if you’re going to yell at the guy, you probably don’t want to do it through a translator.

The documentary ended with increasing tensions ahead of a vote to bring in a union.

I’m torn.  Nearly every union person I’ve ever worked with has been the opposite of what I see on television.  They’ve worked hard and with great skill.  But to listen to a labor organizer for a union talk makes me feel nothing but that I want to keep one hand on my wallet.  They have a sense of entitlement that seeks to make the worker feel that they are a victim, and to a certain mindset that’s an easy sell.  One person who early in the documentary had been so thankful to have a job, any job, had now put himself in the role of a victim at a union meeting.  Heck, in America we even have unions for pirates – but their claims always end up in arrrrbitration.

As noted above, safety and adherence to American laws wasn’t really a Chinese priority, at least at first.  But with the union vote on the line, the Chinese gave a $2 per hour raise across the board and the Plant Manager committed to solving most problems in just one day.  The plant workers voted to reject becoming unionized, by a 2-1 landslide.  After that, the Chinese terminated several vocal union supporters, but since this wasn’t China, that wasn’t a literal termination.

Some thoughts that this movie brought out:

  • The Chinese like being Chinese, and like being around Chinese people. They don’t have much use for everybody else on the planet except economically.  I’m sure they keep visiting the United States to measure to make sure that their stuff will fit.
  • A factory worker used to be able to support a family as a sole breadwinner. The same can be said of the skilled trades.  Immigration (illegal and legal) destroyed this because demand for jobs didn’t increase, while numbers of workers did.  “Greedy” factory owners get blamed, but the reality is open borders means all jobs that don’t require certificates or diplomas are under pressure from about several billion people willing to do it cheaper, especially if it can be done over the phone by “Bob” from Bangladesh.
  • Every union worker I’ve worked with has been awesome. Every union organizer I’ve ever seen on a documentary has reminded me of a conman.
  • This documentary showed the aftermath of the outsourcing of American manufacturing, a transition that has been ongoing since 1995.
  • The next economic transition is upon us. The new jobs that will be created are going to be quite a bit different than the ones disappearing.
  • The Mrs.’ Grandmother would offer her a shiny nickel to rub her corns. There’s a job that won’t be taken away soon.
  • The documentary ended with discussions on how the Chinese were trying to automate the factory even more – replacing workers with robots. It was less than thirty seconds of the documentary and the equivalent of writing something at the end of the essay that you wanted to write about but forgot.  Given Chinese recent history with something as simple as eating bats, I imagine that automation will turn into automated killer robots that will kill all of humanity.  But, hey, productivity is up!!!

VARMINT

I purchased some suspenders a few weeks ago.  Pugsley immediately pounced.  “Want me to get your varmint rifle, Pa?”

I’d like to think that globalization is doomed, however I read a story two weeks ago about a surgical mask and protective equipment maker in Dallas.  During the Swine Flu wave back in 2012, the owner had expanded capacity to meet with demand.  What did the buyers do after the rush?  They went back to sourcing from China.  The owner was left with high unemployment insurance cost and new equipment that he had to pay for even though it was unused.

This time, the owner was more than happy to expand production, but he’d only do it on a long-term contract.  Last I heard?  No takers.

But nah, I’m sure that we’ll figure out that at least partially, globalization was what made our economy so fragile that a virus could cause it to collapse like a Jenga® game played by a drunk Michael J. Fox.

Groundhog Day:  COVID-19 and The Long Now

“I was in the Virgin Islands once.  I met a girl.  We ate lobster.  Drank piña coladas.  At sunset we made love like sea otters.  That was a pretty good day.  Why couldn’t I get that day over and over and over?” – Groundhog Day

DOCU

It’s Quarantine Day.  Again.

Groundhog Day is one American film where the word “treasure” isn’t used lightly.  It features Bill Murray in his last collaboration with Harold Ramis – a duo that together made the funniest movies in the world for more than a decade.  But there’s something different about Groundhog Day:  mixed in with the comedy is a story of personal consequence you don’t see in Ghostbusters or Stripes.

The movie also features a suicide with a groundhog driving a pickup off of a cliff ending in a fireball.  Harold Ramis had originally written Groundhog Day to be a typical Bill Murray comedy.  Murray wanted something deeper and more meaningful.  Together that tension created a thoughtful movie about a weatherman who takes a bath with a toaster.

If you are one of the three people on planet Earth who haven’t seen it (I exclude people from France, for obvious reasons) I’ll give you a short synopsis:  Bill Murray plays a self-absorbed weatherman who is sent to Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania for Groundhog Day.  Again.  The weatherman has done this silly segment for the television channel he works at again and again, and he’s not happy.  The entire concept of doing a trivial public event to amuse groggy morning television viewers having their morning coffee is something he feels is as meaningless to him as trying to teach Paris Hilton to read.

HILTON

Paris Hilton got tired of a man knocking on her door all night.  She finally let him out.

Bill Murray’s character and the television crew don’t make it out of town before the roads close because of a snowstorm.  When Murray wakes up after spending another night in Punxsutawney, he finds he has to live that very same Groundhog Day over again on an endless loop.  The movie’s cue that Murray character is stuck in the same day?

The time on the clock radio flips to 6:00AM with a click.

The radio starts playing the same song to start each day.

It’s bad enough to have to live the same day again and again, but to turn it to a special kind of hell, the song every morning for the rest of his life is:  Sonny and Cher’s “I Got You Babe.”

CHERN

After Cher spent time at Chernobyl, you could tell she was happy when she was wagging her tail.

The only variable is what Bill Murray’s character does during that particular version of his one endless day that has become his whole life.    When asked, Ramis said that Murray’s character probably spent “thirty or forty years” living the same day over and over again.  But not making love like a sea otter.

Babe
I got you babe
I got you babe

Which is how I (and probably millions of others) feel right now.  Corona-chan has infected the county where the Wilder family lives at a rate 10 times less than the nationwide infection rate.  Even COVID-19 doesn’t seem to want to vacation in Modern Mayberry.  Perhaps it’s because of the human sacrifices we make to Opie, the Old One, at our Harvest Festival?  I keep telling the Chamber of Commerce that they should stop advertising that.  Let it be a surprise to our visitors!

The recent shelter-in-place orders that have popped up all around the country have changed everyone’s life.  I’ve written a LOT about the thermonuclear economic disintegration machine that’s munching at our GDP.  But, wait, there’s more.  It’s also the cause of the change in the routines of nearly everyone in the country.

vaca

I hear even pirates can’t take vacations, since ArrrrBNB® is closed, too.

Normally, families go on vacations.  This year, I expect that most family vacations will consist of not taking vacations with the people you’ve been in the same house with for six weeks.  Will the NFL® play games to empty stadiums this year, so that 11 people not from Cleveland will play on the field against 11 people not from Tampa Bay?  I imagine that the NFL™ players might pay big money to get out of the house.  Will the local high school team play?  I think the local kids will play because the parents would pay big money to get them out of the house, but who can say?  It’s all up in the air.

All of the things that we normally take for granted are likewise up in the air – for many people that includes having a job.  Yet, with all that tension lots of us are living the same day, again and again.  But for me, it’s not the same day I’m used to.  Over time, I built up a schedule around work.  Get up at the same time every day.  Go to work, hit the gym for lunch, and then come home.  When we got home, the family would do something – often that would be going out for dinner.  On the weekends?  Visiting friends.  Eating Midwest sushi.  Pugsley’s frequent cross-country corn skiing tournaments.

All of those options are gone.

We had variety in our lives, and choices.  Want to drive two hours to go to a big city?  Sure.  We’d do that once every other month for a $9 hamburger (that’s -$26 in metric dollars).  We didn’t do it often, but we could do it.  We could still drive to the big city, but why?  To eat an expensive burger in our car?

BURGER

Oh, that’s the Fahrenheit to Celsius conversion?  I guess the French don’t know what a $9 burger is.

So, the weekends have looked pretty much the same.  We goof around the house, have a nice Saturday dinner, sit on the deck, maybe play a game.  It’s fun, and it’s good family time.  But in doing that, we’re forced to confront each other.  Daily.  All the time.  Again.  In the same situation.  And even though we’re bombarded by daily news about the WuFlu and the reaction to it, the only real variable is how we interact in that particular day.

Babe
I got you babe
I got you babe

A few weeks ago Pugsley and I were in Wal-Mart©.  We went through the checkout line and the clerk was a girl who had gone to high school with The Boy.  Small towns are great that way.  She had just started working at Wal-Mart® and even though she had known our family for years, she was surprised.  “Oh, having a cookout?” she asked as she looked at the hamburger, bratwurst and steaks on the belt.

“Yes.”

“I guess you’re learning to cook!”

Well, no.  Even Pugsley has been able to turn out a tasty dinner from scratch since he was about 10 or so.  And The Boy is now the grill master and does a fantastic job, even though I keep him out of the grill master’s secret beverages.  Who knew that the ice cold, golden bubbly elixir wasn’t the source of my grilling powers?

GRILL

What kind of burgers do adopted boys get?  Bison burgers.

The Mrs. has been the heavy lifter in cooking forever.  And although each of us has been cooking, The Mrs. gets tired of the male preference for “meat and bratwurst every night.”  I will admit that after a while The Boy and Pugsley both looked like they were suffering from withdrawal symptoms related to pizza roll and Taco Bell® depravation.

One big missing piece in my new “routine” is exercise.  Missing 40 minutes of treadmill time, five days a week?  Yeah, that’s easy to skip the discipline I built into my life on days when I’m not even bothering to wear pants.

It’s my fault.  I built that routine to make the discipline of daily exercise easy for me.  When I traveled for business, I had one that kept me exercising.  But now, when staying home is what I’m doing?  Have I built that routine?

No.  Not yet.  Like I said, it’s my fault.  And it’s especially my fault because I know how to build that routine.  The key is fairly simple.  I just need to do it.  Even though I don’t know if I’m going to even have a vacation, I do know where I’ll be tomorrow.

Babe
I got you babe
I got you babe

American Caesar: Coming Soon To A Country Near You?

“Because there’s no crying in baseball! No crying!” – A League of Their Own

WILDER

Wash this.

As we contemplate the wreckage of the economy and the cracks in our culture, I return to that question that many of us have been thinking of:

What happens next?

By next as in next week, well those patterns are short term. Just like the stock market has spent most of the last ten years going up, some weeks were down. The overall aggregate of those weeks was up. Until it wasn’t. The short term direction of the market varied, but like China’s expanding sea claims or my expanding waistline, the long term trend did not.

That’s what I see with the United States as a whole. Over the short term, things go up and down, but the long term stresses in the system keep building up. A brick building having foundation problems will build stress, until the bricks and mortar both snap in a line under tension, just like Joe Biden snaps when people move too quickly around him because of Crimean War flashbacks.

One major tension: people have been concerned about the national debt since before I’ve been alive. Why? The silly idea seems to be that “having an unpayable mountain of debt” might be a bad thing since you have to pay all of that back just to be broke. It’s only money, right? But the Federal debt as a percentage of GDP is now larger than at any time since the end of World War II. At that time the United States had mobilized to spending nearly 90% of Federal dollars on military spending items. That level of debt, 110% of the GDP, existed before COVID-19 gave us a gut shot. What will it be after all of the Chinese Virus spending? 120%? 150%?

At least with World War II we got cool tanks and games like Axis and Allies®. In the last bailout all we got was a bigger penthouse for CEOs like Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan/Chase. You might remember Dimon’s tone-deaf Christmas cards like the one he sent out below in 2013. Sure, people are allowed to send out glaringly condescending tennis-ball filled Christmas cards while they spend enough money to pay off your mortgage on a lunch trip to Switzerland for their dog. But to celebrate their wealth after having been the beneficiary of a $25 billion taxpayer-funded bailout in 2008? That’s just tacky.

I guess Dimon’s Christmas card is nearly as neat as 49,324 Sherman tanks, plus twenty-three aircraft carriers, and a zillion movies, at least some of which had Clint Eastwood. Okay, I’ll take that back. Having Clint Eastwood World War II movies is even more important than the ultimate comfort of a billionaire banker. There. I said it. Go ahead and judge me.

I guess pictures of a pampered CEO are close.

KELLY

Thankfully Jamie Dimon never had to miss a meal.

At some point, there’s a mathematical limit where debt actually matters. After World War II, the United States dealt with debt through a crazy plan: paying it back, while growing the economy. As we stand right now, with the exception of spending enough on defense to cause the Soviets to collapse, we’ve gotten very little out of that debt. It’s like the nation has since 1990 gone on a spending binge like a six year old with addled on sugar with Mom’s credit card, ending up with a pile of Amazon® packages and next-day Prime® diabetes.

Outside of the economic mess which would have gone off at some point with our without the WuFlu, we’re a nation divided politically. The split has been getting worse and worse through time. People have cut off relations with relatives because of political differences that would have made for amusing table discussions even a decade ago. The creeping socialism that’s been winding its way through society since FDR’s New Deal used the Great Depression to introduce sweeping social changes that wrapped themselves around the national brainstem is now fresh again, back like Nic Cage on a bad sequel.

The idea of infinite benefits from a magical printing press is as old as any fairy tale, and we share it with our children every year – he’s called Santa Claus. But lots of people don’t believe in Santa Claus. Why?

Because Santa’s not real.

Santa can’t exist as he violates a fundamental law of the universe – There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch, or TANSTAAFL, as Pournelle and Niven would have said. Heck, the one thing the Soviets in a gulag and hard-core libertarians agree on is: If you don’t work, you don’t eat. No wonder my kids came back so tough after a week at Ayn Rand Preschool – you had to have the will to take the bottle.

SOCIALIST

People in socialist countries are the only ones who envy the high tech that the Amish have.

These tensions – the financial system collapse tension plus the political division tension – don’t lead to a good outcome. It’s been noted by commenters here and elsewhere that as long as things are good and bellies are full, people won’t revolt. But if you were saving for a rainy day, look outside: it’s pouring.

As I see it, there are three major ways this situation plays out – and none of them end up with 2030 being “business as usual” anymore.

First alternative: the Left takes over. Just like in Virginia, the Left will spend about 20 minutes before they decide to implement their entire basket of changes. I don’t think that this is likely. The reason is that at this point I don’t think the Right will go gently onto that goodnight. They have realized that gun rights “compromises” include only taking rights away. The Right is not keen to compromise on any rights, which is why the recent push-back came against the Coronavirus-related state shutdowns. If the Left tries this, there will be some level of anarchy. And we all know how many anarchists it takes to change a lightbulb: none. Anarchists have never changed anything.

Second alternative: the states Balkanize. The entire experiment breaks up. The Right isn’t interested, for the most part, in controlling what goes on outside of their state, and would be quite amused to watch New York and Los Angeles figure out that the things that make their lives good, like food and gasoline, all come from places they don’t like made by people who don’t like them. Pretty soon they’d be trading Netflix® subscriptions for potatoes. The reason this is a solution of the Right is because Red State people want their freedoms and to be left alone to grill. This is a difficult outcome – splitting up the states seems to fall along party lines, but lots of Blue states have a Red ring around them, and lots of Red states are covered in Blue dots.

The Third, and in my mind an increasingly likely alternative is an American Caesar.

The Roman Republic officially started in 509 B.C., but at the beginning wasn’t much more than a high school audio-visual club with dominion of around six neighborhood blocks until about 282 B.C. It was at that point when the Romans finally took over most of the other tribes in the local area and began to vie for domination of the Mediterranean against Carthage for Blockbuster® franchise rights.

PRICE

“I hate it when they price just one dollar over. Seems so, disloyal, right Brutus?”

The Roman Republic was fed by expansion. At the time when Caesar became a de facto emperor, Rome controlled not only modern day Italy, but most of Spain, Portugal, Greece, a lot of the northern coast of Africa, France, Belgium, and the Balkan area. Does a republic or a democracy expand? Yes – whoever thought a democracies don’t start wars was as deluded as Joe Biden when he recently denounced President Lincoln for the way he’s handling the polio epidemic.

The Roman Republic lasted until Julius Caesar created and took the throne as dictator after political intrigue. He stepped into a situation where his political enemies were out to get him, and had passed a law to strip him of his troops. Politically and popularly, Caesar was already famous – he had written Commentaries on the Gallic War, which was a bestseller that described his military exploits. It was popular in Rome, and meant at least partially as propaganda to the common people to sidestep the Senate and official media. Sound familiar?

Caesar knew that his political enemies had a trap set for him when he returned – he was certain they’d strip his titles and wealth from him, but, he had an army that was more loyal to him than it was to Rome. When he led Legio XIII (the 13th Legion) across the Rubicon River, Caesar legendarily said, “The die is cast.” By law, Roman Consuls gave up command at the Rubicon, some 200 miles north of Rome, which was probably about a hard 10-day march over the good roads at Rome. The Senate heard that “Julius is coming,” and got out of there faster than your Leftist friends when it comes time to split the bill for lunch.

Although things were politically precarious at that point, this was the big step. Rome tipped into a civil war. Caesar won, and the people were, generally, pleased, mainly because salads were popular back then. That’s why a few years after Caesar was assassinated, Augustus Caesar was able to take the title – the people were wanting to end the political nonsense, even if it meant a kind of tyranny: this wasn’t the first nor the last time this deal would be made. The people of Rome at that point didn’t want to elect a leader – they wanted an end to the chaos. If the result was an Emperor? So be it.

CAESARD

Spoiler, Caesar died. It would have been much worse if he had continued as a vegetable – let us mourn him.

So far, the leader of the United States has been (more or less) elected through legal means. The Electoral College itself is a great bulwark against fraud – it’s hard to fake enough votes because the dead voting in Chicago alone won’t do it. You’d have to have recounts in cemeteries in dozens of states.

With the jobless increasing 22 million in four weeks, chaos is on the way once people can leave their basements. Unless COVID-19 interrupts, I expect actual riots at the Democratic Convention, especially if they forget the Tupperware® they keep Biden in. Given how much economic activity has already cratered in the United States – total credit card spending is down nearly 30% since last year, but the rent for the store is the same. Businesses won’t be hiring anytime soon, and there’s no way that this will be a sharp recovery.

That economic and political turmoil that we’ll see in the next few years is ripe for a hero, a savior to come forward. Will this new leader look like the old Caesar? No, certainly not. Certainly this savior will be someone that many people know, and look up to.

Tom Hanks?

HANKS

Maybe President-for-life Tom Hanks? Nah, I hear he eats baby kittens.

The Coming End of The United States

“Hello, I’m Dr. Bean.  Apparently.  And my job is to sit and look at paintings.  So, what have I learned that I can say about this painting?  Well, firstly, it’s really quite big, which is excellent, because If it were really small, you know, microscopic, then hardly anyone would be able to see it.” – Bean

SAVAGE

If you look closely, you can see itsy-bitsy fur bikini women. 

The death of the United States as we know it is near.  COVID-19 isn’t the cause of it, despite being in the news nearly as much as a Kardashian.  Coronavirus is, rather, a symptom.  Like any organism, as soon as a nation is born it begins the process of growth and eventual death.  This cycle is a common theme in history, and I’ve visited it before in posts here because I find it more fascinating than, say, beekeeping.

One post I wrote about the how empires have a natural cycle and end date is here (End of Empires, PEZ, and Decadence).  That post contains information about Sir John Glubb’s paper called The Fate of Empires.  You can also find Glubb’s original paper here (LINK), and you’ll be pleased to find it’s been translated from Glubb’s original fish language.

Which brings us to Thomas Cole.  Mr. Cole was an American painter.  I say “was” because he’s now dead.  This is good, because otherwise he’d have to explain to his wife where the heck he’s been since 1848.  Cole did a series of five paintings depicting Glubb’s paper between the years of 1833 and 1836, which was pretty amazing, since Glubb’s paper wasn’t published until 1976.  Cole’s five paintings are collectively known as The Course of Empire.

The first of these paintings is called The Savage State.  It’s the first picture up above.  Cole wasn’t horribly inventive with names, and it’s rumored that he had a dog named “Dog” and a cat named “Cat” and subsisted entirely on a diet of unsalted boiled potatoes.  His painting, The Savage State is just that, a savage land dominated by nature, which is also how The Mrs. describes my side of the bedroom.  In his painting, you can see that the civilization matched the landscape – rudimentary and rough.  It’s chaotic, but that describes a great deal of the prehistory of man.  This period of history can last a very, very long time, and would have lasted even longer if humanity would have failed to invent shag carpet.

PASTORAL

If you look closely, all these paintings are set in the same place, at different times.  Cole even changed the time of day from morning in the first one to night in the final one.  I guess this is what you had to settle for as an 1836 version of HD television.

The next painting in the series is The Pastoral State.  Each of the paintings presents the same area, just at different stages in the development of the civilization.  The land from the original painting has been tamed enough for farming and herding animals.  The wild nature of The Savage State has been at least partially replaced by enough control of the land that a greater degree of specialization and start of civilization is possible.

At this stage in the civilizational cycle, there is generally a single dominant culture.  If there are two competing cultures, they’ll fight.  This explains the Spartans and the Athenians, the North versus the South, or my ex-wife and humans not possessed by Satan.  Having a single culture breeds trust, and the uniformity of purpose required for this phase.

The theme of the pastoral state is expansion along the frontier, and is characterized by growth and optimism.  It’s how it feels to be on the winning team.  Religion is dominant, as are ideals that are higher than self – in Rome, public service was considered honorable.  Plutarch wrote about Spartan mothers and their attitudes when their sons went into battle:  “Another woman handed her son his shield, and exhorted him: ‘Son, either with this or on this.’”

Legend has it that at one point when Athens was fighting Sparta, that a Spartan, hidden by a hill, taunted the Athenians by yelling, “One Spartan can beat a thousand Athenians!”  Enraged, the commander of the Athenians selected his thousand best men and sent them over the hill to kill the insolent Spartan.  After fifteen minutes of battle sounds and screaming, a single Athenian, mortally wounded, limped to the top of the hill and yelled down to his general:  “Don’t fall for it!  It’s a trap!  There are actually two of them.”

This state ends when there is no more expansion and frontier.  At that point, someone always gets the bright idea that they want to make a buck.  The pursuit of profit then replaces the pursuit of honor.

CONSUMM

This is the most beautiful and intricate of the paintings.  Of course, I had to meme all over it.  And looking at the multitudes of people in the painting I had to wonder, “What would a decent three bedroom in the suburbs cost?”

After profits have been pursued for a time, the Empire then reaches the height of power.  Cole depicted this phase in his painting The Consummation.  Both as a military and economic entity, the Empire will never be better off than at this time, well, at least until it builds that Death Star®.  It is here that the greatest works of arts and literature of the society will be created.  While the society retains the myth of the expansion, the reality is that is no longer a concern.

Also at this point, intellectuals will start rejecting all of the values that allowed the society to be great, and replacing them with ideals that are often the direct opposite of those that led to success.  Virtue is replaced by vanity.  Honor and discipline will be mocked as the philosophy of a fool, and be derided as inferior to the values and beliefs of amorality, nihilism, materialism, and collectivism.

Not that I have an opinion, or anything.

Somewhere about this time, with the Empire ceasing to grow, powerful groups figure out that it’s much easier to steal wealth than create it.  Politicians devise ways to maximize how much money and power their group can take from the others.

DESTRU

This is the Cole painting, The Destruction of Empire, I see most often out of this set.  Perhaps it’s a sign of the time, or perhaps it’s a sign that everyone likes a good Viking raid?  Okay.  Not everyone.  But remember that Roman soldiers are trained, but Vikings are Bjorn.

With the Empire past its peak, the wealth is used to create decadence.  Focus is on material goods, and religion declines across the Empire.  Since the focus is on wealth, the welfare state forms – Romans had bread and circuses, we have EBT and Netflix®.  Historically, foreign peoples from across the Empire stream towards the original culture.  Why?  Again, the focus is on material goods and not a cohesive society.  Why would a Greek want to leave Greece for Rome?  I prefer to read books about Rome in Braille – it makes it feel like ancient history.

And as the focus grows on material goods, the originality of the goods disappears.  Art becomes a cynical mechanism of control and a means to harvest cash.  The remake of the original is remade or rebooted to once again drag the culture for profits.  I heard that Hollywood was even going to remake a Muslim version of Footloose, but this time without the Bacon.

An example of that is Spain after the conquest of the New World.  Spain found itself with immense wealth in gold.  How much wealth?  So much that the Spaniards decided that they didn’t want to do the day-to-day things in life, and drew workers in from all across Europe to Do The Jobs Spaniards Wouldn’t Do.  So much gold flew into Europe that it changed the exchange rate and wrecked the market for gold.  After a century of such luxury, the Spaniards ceased to be the conquistadors that boldly conquered a continent with grit and bravado and became a culture that complained when the Dutch help didn’t peel the grapes correctly.

As an example, in one park I found a cannon seized from a Spanish warship during the Spanish-American War.  I looked at the engraving on the cannon – it was beautiful.  But this cannon, taken from the Spanish in 1898, was actually forged in 1780 or so.  The United States was using cannon that were state of the art and sophisticated, with more than a century of technological advances on the Spanish.

Heck, when a friend got at tattoo in Spain, I was shocked.  It was really good.  Why was I shocked that it was good?  No one expects Spanish ink-precision.

The destruction of Empire can flow not only from battle, but also from a checkbook – a financial collapse can be nearly as devastating as a foreign army, as Spain proves.  Regardless, when vigor is gone, pessimism prevails, and sacrifice for the common good to a trustworthy state disappears?  Why would you want to be a hero, as all of the national myths and heroes are, one by one, destroyed to make way for the new myths of the intellectual class?

Destruction is just around the corner.

DESOL

If you look closely at this picture, there are no people, only birds, which must mean that Cole felt that the birds would take over the Earth.  This is my favorite, because it makes me feel better about how my yard looks.

Cole’s final painting in the series was the Desolation of Empire.  The Empire is over.  The drama is over.  What remains are a scattered people and the ruins of a great civilization.  It sounds bleak, but it doesn’t need to be.

The desolation of Empire isn’t the ending for every person in it, it’s just the ending of the golden age of the way things were.  Imagine someone near the end of the Roman Empire, worried about what they saw going on around it.  Would the Roman Empire collapse?  Certainly.  Would all of the people die as a part of this collapse?  No.  But the globalism of the day did.

And the Roman Empire, in its death, set the stage for a new series of cultures all around Europe – from the reuse of Caesar as “Czar” in Moscow to the United States, which consciously adopted many of the symbols of ancient Rome.  What was the first name of the United States Army?  Under its first commander, Major General “Mad” Anthony Wayne, it was known as Legion of the United States from 1792-1796.

This isn’t the end of the world, it’s just the end of what we have now, and the end of the United States as we knew her.  It’s the beginning of something new as the old structures cease to serve us.  There’s a common phrase that I can’t find the source of but that describes the cycle simply and well:  “Hard times breed strong men.  Strong men breed good times.  Good times breed soft men.  Soft men?  They bring hard times.”

We are in for hard times.  But don’t fear.  This will make strong men, and, if they are strong enough, a new United States that deserves those strong men.

A Hiking Trip Through The Coronavirus Economy

“You were last seen hiking up Mount Ego.” – Frasier

HIKING

You know, because I might be using hiking as a metaphor.

When I was younger, I did a lot of hiking.  So much so, that it was second nature to me – I can recall hiking up remote mountain trails when I was kindergarten.  If you take the average kindergartner, they are built to walk a trail, and their strength to weight ratio will beat any four wheel drive.  I guarantee you that unless you are in prime condition, your motor will run out before theirs will.

Before this weekend, the last time I went hiking was about four years ago, and it was quite a hike.  We went up and down and deep into the Rockies, at one point following old mining trails that were originally blazed by miners with mules looking for gold – I know because I found an ore cart still sitting on its rails up around 12,000 feet when I was 20.  I could tell it was a mining cart, because I found their deodorant underneath the cart, and everyone knows miners always pick Axe™.

On this trip, I was in good enough shape that one 18 year old rang the bell before I did, which is the kind of thing that makes an older man smile – he knows he still has “it.”  And I did still have “it,” unlike my hair.  I figure the group did over nine thousand feet up and nine thousand feet down over two days.  It was nice, though I will admit that at one point every muscle in my body cramped all at once, even the bottom of my foot, and that’s my arch nemesis.

SLEEP

My commute often doesn’t include pants.  Pants are for fancy, non-Corona time. 

This weekend, Pugsley, having had enough of the house, convinced me that we should go hiking.  Honestly, it was my idea, too, so I was thrilled when he got me up to go hiking.  Since the lockdown I hadn’t been to my usual gym, and on several days in the last six weeks the most strenuous part of the day had been rolling out of bed to go downstairs to my “office” on the loveseat where I’ve been working from home.  It’s also where I normally write these blog posts, so it’s a place which is already set up physically and mentally for productivity, except for the coffee, which was allllll the way upstairs.  And I spent all that energy being debunked.

But after six weeks of not working out, how would I fare hiking?

Pugsley and I hit the trail.  It was a warm, but not hot, spring day.  In short?  It was a day perfect for a hike.  The grass was vibrantly green under a cloudless sky as we hit the trail.  As trails go, this one isn’t the most challenging that I’ve been on, but it certainly is aggressive.  And four years of rust was immediately apparent.  And we didn’t bring any snacks, though I’ve heard that zombies bring entrail mix when they hike.

We made it about as far as my legs were willing to go.  We weren’t out of the woods yet, but that’s the purpose of hiking, right?  It is clear to me that I need to go hiking with Pugsley again – the treadmill at the gym is no replacement for an actual mountain.  The next day I could feel the pain, but I knew I was getting stronger, since I was still alive.  And Nietzsche always said that, “What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.  Except for Ruffles®.”

GYM

All I need is a gym with a doughnut shop attached.

Getting stronger rarely feels good.  It involves aches and pains.  It involves discomfort, and moving your body in ways it may not have moved for a while.  In a “good” recession, this is what happens.  The economy sheds, often in very painful ways, companies that are no longer competitive and gets stronger.  That recession is the spur for changes within companies that allow them to survive.  Sentimentality goes by the wayside – the harsh blade of profitability determines what products will be built and what products will be discontinued.  Plus the bank helps lots of folks get back up on their feet, mainly by repossessing the car.

This, however, is no ordinary recession.  Entire industries are going to be destroyed.  I’ll pick just one for this post:  air travel.  Airlines and airplane manufacturers are facing the biggest, by far, challenge of their existence.  People are finally coming to the understanding that the last 45 days of their lives is the most momentous (so far) of nearly anyone alive.   With me, it came with the dawning realization of my receding airline.

TSA

Body cavity search, Mr. Wilder?

The solution of government to this recession is that of the zombie – prolonging the existence of a company far after its usefulness to the world has ended.  A great example is Boeing®.  Boeing™ used to be among the better designers and builders of aircraft in the world.  Recently, its reputation has suffered after it made a software change that resulted in crashes and the grounding of an entire airplane model, which might be the ultimate Boeing™ constrictor.  It has a loan fund earmarked for it and similar companies that sits at about $17 billion dollars.  I’m betting you and I couldn’t borrow in the way that Boeing© will.

And what about the airline industry as a whole?

  • Last year, on average, the TSA screened 2.7 million passengers a day.
  • Last week? Less than 100,000.
  • On an average day in 2019, there were 44,000 daily flights.
  • Last week? 8,000.

The airline industry is backed by $25 billion to pay employees that the Federal government is you and I are giving the airlines to pay employees until September.  I guess you and I were feeling generous that day, since my industry didn’t exactly get paid and yours probably didn’t, either.

BANDAID

At least this government solution isn’t bigger than the problem . . .

And though I generally like the idea of inefficient or corrupt companies failing, this economic tidal wave is different – whereas the normal recession is a very vigorous workout that makes the body stronger, this is more like conducting weight loss surgery with a chainsaw.  I’m sure the doctor is being gentle, but it’s still a chainsaw.  Good companies and bad will fall, large companies and small.

If the economy is normally liquid water in good times, then the government’s tendency to freeze market winners into place is turning the economy to ice.  But this economic collapse we’re seeing as a result of COVID-19 is a boiling pot of water.  It’s chaos.  Who will win?  Who knows?  Will useful, economically viable portions of the country be ripped away?  Certainly.  We can argue that bad companies will die, but this is economic Russian roulette.

RUSSIAN

And who said the Soviets weren’t innovators???

It has already happened, we just don’t have a real-time graph from Johns-Hopkins showing angry red bubbles of economic destruction on a county by county basis with a counter and a logarithmic graph of job losses to date.  We also don’t have a doctor talking about all of the regulations that will have to change so businesses can grow again and how business regulations people are used to will be gone forever in the “New Normal” that Coronavirus has brought for us.

Some industries will be gone for good.  I don’t miss flying, and had already given it up on all trips where it only saves me a few hours a few years ago.  What else is gone?  How about small movie theaters?  How long can they survive in a world where the movies have turned to crap that’s driven by a corporate model that values sequels and familiarity over originality and cleverness?  Will they be saved by movies that are created by a target audience of people around the world and are so culturally inert that they could be about kung fu warriors or Tom Cruise jumping off of a shiny building and all make equal sense?

CATS2

Human/CGI cats singing.  How could that be a flop?  Maybe the Coronavirus was the Earth saving itself from the Cats® movie?

Why are comedy movies dead?  Chinese people don’t think we’re funny and in our incredibly Politically Correct world, none of the jokes are allowed to be funny, anyway.  Besides that, the small town theater has already found it hard to compete with Netflix® and Amazon©.  Now the big Hollywood© studios have finally gotten first release on streaming.  How happy will Disney® be when they don’t have to share the profit with small town theater owners?  They’ll smile from mouse-ear to mouse-ear because Disney™ gets a big Federal bailout, and the theater owner doesn’t.

In this era, the results are unpredictable.  If I work really hard on lifting weights?  I’ll get stronger.  But in the economy of 2020, either my arm might fall off, it might grow to world-class proportions in an afternoon.  There’s no way to predict because there’s no rational process determining winners and losers.

Regardless, I need to hit the trails with Pugsley more.  Even though I can’t predict the winners and losers in the economy in the next few weeks, months, or years?  I can predict that I need to be able to hit that trail a little harder.

You never know when that might come in handy.

ALTERNATE BONUS MEME:

CATS

Endgame: At Some Point? This has to stop.

“You know, when I was a kid, food was food. Before our scientific magicians poisoned the water, polluted the soil, decimated plant and animal life.” – Soylent Green

PEPPARD

I pity the fool that thinks we’re done.

In 471 B.C., a group of soldiers of the Roman Republic broke camp one fine morning.  The way the story works out, I’m pretty sure it was a Monday.  Their plan was to go attack some smelly hill people under the command of the Roman Consul, Appius.  As the horn sounded to leave the camp, the smelly hill people swarmed down on the Roman column from behind.  In the defense of the Roman soldiers, this was way before the invention of coffee but after the invention of wine, so they probably weren’t exactly awake.

As an aside, I imagine that the whole of the ancient history can be explained by un-showered illiterate people who were hungover most of the time trying to run things.  I guess this description also applies to congress, but at least the Romans dressed well and threw great parties.  Can you imagine Bernie Sanders or Adam Schiff or Mitch McConnell being fun at a party?

Livy

Perhaps the artist was a talented person who had only ever seen birds with lazy eye and just imagined what a person might look like?

Regardless, the Roman column broke under an attack less expected than the Spanish Inquisition.  The Roman historian Titus Livius, more commonly known a Livy, is the reason we remember this battle.  Livy wrote that the reason the hill people stopped pursing the Romans were that the Romans were running away faster than the victorious hill people could wade through the dead Romans, but remember, the smelly hill people didn’t have coffee, either, so maybe they just got . . . tired.  The Roman Consul, Appius, tried to stop the fleeing soldiers, but wasn’t able to do so, no matter how he tried.

APPIUS

Appius rallying the troops.  Colorized.

When the Romans made camp far enough away that the mean hill people weren’t going to attack them, Appius lined all of the soldiers up.  Every soldier was asked, “Where are your weapons?”  Every standard bearer was asked, “Where is your flag?”  Then Centurions that had fled the field of battle were identified.

All of these men were beaten, and then beheaded, because being beheaded wasn’t quite enough.  That made a bad morning worse, but it didn’t stop there:  of the remaining men, they drew lots.  One out of each ten was executed for the overall cowardice of the unit.  Why not ten out of ten?  There were still lots of smelly hill people around, and Appius might have been faster than some of them but not all of them.

This latter part where one out of ten was killed lives on today in our language as the word “decimate,” from the Latin “deci” meaning “Lucy’s husband,” and the Latin “mate” meaning, “someone an Australian drinks beer with.”  But, in a literal fashion it means losing one out of every ten, and has been a military punishment used all the way up into the 20th century, when the Soviets did it to at least part of the 64th Rifle Division after a very bad day at Stalingrad in 1943, though rumor has it no one had fun in Stalingrad in ’43.  If you don’t believe me, read your “Argentinian” grandfather’s real diary.

I know you’re thinking, “Hey, John Wilder, that’s fun, but why are you talking about dead Roman bird-faced men when the economy is collapsing?”

COLLAPSE

To be clear, I don’t have any dirt on the Clinton family.

The United States labor force in February 2020 was 164.6 million.  In the last three weeks, respectively, 3.0 million, 6.9 million, and 6.6 million people filed for unemployment, bringing that total to 16.5 million newly unemployed.  For those of you without a calculator or fingers, that’s just over 10%.  And as bad as the rest of the news is, I had to search for it, rather than it being front page.

Think of it, the second worst unemployment numbers in the history of the United States not being above-the-fold page one news.  Instead?  “Could have been worse.  At least the sky isn’t dripping blood and lava.”

Employment in the United States has been literally decimated in the last two weeks.  Sure, it’s not as bad as being beaten to death because of those stupid scary hill people who had the bad manners to attack before lunch or being a Russian (or a German) at Stalingrad, but it’s not good.

It is catastrophic.  And next week will be more of the same, if not worse.

If we listen to some leaders, it could be “until August,” or if you listen to Bill Gates, “until the entire United States can be vaccinated and Windows 14™ implanted into their spinal column.”  Neither of those two are acceptable, especially since some people, like Joe Biden, have no discernable spine.

BIDEN

He sniffs, he sucks, he scores!

But removing those restrictions is important.  Even as farmers dump milk that they can’t put into supermarket-sized cartons and break eggs that they can’t put into 18-packs for Wal-Mart, the system is breaking down.  At a certain point the economy is important, because a breakdown in the system might be just the key for some of the more fringe elements on the Left to begin to “finally try real communism” in the United States, which will end up with a bigger butcher’s bill than COVID-19 could ever create.  Yeah, it’s a worst-case scenario, and I don’t think we’ll go there, but did anyone think the Fed and Congress could imagine $5 trillion dollars in extra debt.  In a single month?

The other side of the argument is, “Start everything back up.  Now!”

That won’t work, either.  You won’t see people crowding into quaint and cramped Italian restaurants, because nobody wants to get Coronavirus from the busboy.  People want to see the infection numbers drop before they commit to getting into a stadium with 77,000 other people to cheer on the NFL®.  Zero?  Nope.  But lower than the 30,000-ish daily (hopefully) peak of newly infected we’re seeing right now.

FIRED

Well, I guess this is the hard part of the Art of the Deal.

And if you really want to see the fireworks over this idea, wander on over to Aesop’s place.  Here’s a representative post.  The genius (and the real nuclear part) is in the comments (LINK).  As you can see, Aesop has a plan.  The plan?  Probably not.  But it’s important, because it’s a plan.

One thing that is owed the people of the United States is the plan, complete with criteria and reasoning.  We know, for certain, that after restrictions are removed that more people will die of COVID-19, and that every single death will be placed at the foot of Trump by the Left.  Even though we know that collectively the Left couldn’t organize a hunger strike at a fashion show, we do know that they’re aces at blaming everyone for everything, just like The Mrs. blames me for not having the hardwood floor installed six years after having purchased it.  Oops.  The Mrs. messed up.  She trusted me.

We also know that the devastation of job loss and economic collapse will create thousands of ‘silent’ deaths through despair and addiction.  Trump will be blamed for that economic loss, as well.  There’s no daily graphic for showing economic misery.  Well, not yet there isn’t, but as soon as it sells in the news media?  Expect it on the front page of Drudge® every single day.

MISERY

You dirty birds.  I have to apologize for this one since Misery the movie came out in 1990, but it’s at least cheap to watch on Amazon®.  Which Pugsley and I did, after I wrote this.  I guess we’re dirty birds.

When the time finally comes for Americans to emerge out of their basement bunkers fatter than Hillary Clinton after a wine evening with the ladies?  And we’re caught up on all of that “must-see TV” (spoiler:  fire insurance is a must if you live in King’s Landing®), what kind of a landscape will they see?

Americans are already getting antsy.  It won’t last until August.  I don’t think it will last past May.

The economy won’t be the same.  Small businesses are in really bad shape.  Since they don’t have a lobbyist like Boeing®, that steak house on Main Street?  Owned by Ma and Pa Steakhouse owners?  They don’t have anyone looking out for them.  They’ll get loans, sure.  But another loan on top of the mortgage on the restaurant?  Another loan on top of the bills they have for the steaks sitting in the freezer because no one is coming in?  Yeah.

That’ll help.  Just like links from the chain of the anchor would help a lifeboat from the Titanic.

I’m an upbeat person, I really am.  Work back through my posts, and I defy anyone to find me being downbeat.  I’m not.  I think that things will generally work out for me, at least until I die.  That part will probably suck.  Unless Anne Wilkes has a sledgehammer between me and the grave.

But one thing I want to stress is that hope isn’t a plan, and that hope isn’t your friend.  Hope keeps you wishing for a future you wish to see, rather than the future you can work to have.  If you hope that after Corona-chan is in the rear-view mirror, the United States will be the same, you will be disappointed.

If you hope that the world will snap back into “happy motoring” (thanks, Jim Kunstler) in June, you’ll find that hope will be a straightjacket.  Hope is not your friend, to the extent that it allows happy thoughts to replace action.

HOPE

Don’t hope.  Do.  And live.  Hope is for amateurs and dreamers.

The United States as you knew her in February 2020 is dead.  There.  You have it.  Deal with it and plan your life.  You don’t have to be among the decimated.

But know this:

The United States is dead.

Let all of us go and find her.  She is there, waiting for us.

Inflation? Sure. But not right now. (Special Edition Includes Greta Thunberg Joke)

“In 1899, my grandfather, Henry ‘by God’ Ford, was walking home from Edison Illumination after working a double shift.  He was ruminating.  That morning, he had himself an idea that changed the world.  Sixty-five years, and 47 million automobiles later, what shall be his legacy?  Getting it in the tail pipe from a Chevy Impala?” – Ford vs. Ferrari

KINGDATE

If Stephen King were at the Fed:  “All the interest rates float down here, Georgie.”

The government is getting ready to blast enough paper money into the economy that even Zoomers get the joke.  The Boy has said, on multiple occasions, “Money printer go brrrr.”  By that he means that it’s visible to anyone who is looking that government is willing to just add a zero to every piece of currency coming off the press just to toss money everywhere like Charlie Sheen on a night out with Johnny Depp when one of them is dressed like a Muppet® and the other one gets to be the hand.

But the point is, even teenagers anticipate immediate inflation.

But I can be better than Shoeless Joe:  I can say it ain’t so.

brrr

See, even the kids get it.  Not my meme, probably the work of a 12 year old Anon on 4chan.

In fact, I’ve said before and will say again, I expect that many items will not go up in price, but down.  Here’s an example:  Pugsley is a young man, at that tender age after puberty begins its hormonal onslaught, but before he has a driver’s license.  Generally, that means that the thing he thinks the second-most about is:  cars.  You can probably figure out what first is.  He says it’s the Bible, but I’m not sure he owns one, and that surely wouldn’t explain the Internet data rates I’m seeing.

He’s had me price some beautiful cars, some that do amazing things like go from zero to sixty in a short enough time that I’d worry that I’d look like Shrek® got caught under a steam roller if I put the hammer down.  One of them is the Ford Shelby GT350®.  This particular car can be purchased used, a year or two old, with less than 10,000 miles on it for about $50,000.  Just for grins, I thought I’d check out what they were going for last week.  $45,000.  That’s a 10% drop, in two weeks.

Why?

Because absolutely no one older than 18 is looking to buy one right now, and everybody under 18 has, ahem, the Internet.  Potential buyers are also anticipating further price drops.  Why buy that Shelby™ at $45,000 when you can have it for $40,000 next month?

Anticipation of cheaper cars is one factor that leads to deflation.

SHELBY

But who will be able to a-Ford® it?  I’ll admit it, I’ve even priced insurance.

There’s another powerful force pushing towards deflation:  people just don’t have money.  I’ve mentioned before that something like 80% of Americans can’t afford an emergency spend of $1,000.  Now, people are losing jobs faster than Hillary Clinton’s witness list is shrinking, and it doesn’t take long for rent, phone, and food to add up to $1000.  There won’t be inflation if nobody is buying, and you can’t buy if you don’t have money.

I was slightly concerned during the first few weeks of the COVID-19 lockdown because of empty shelves.  Not a lot, because the way the food system works ensures that there is some slack in the system:  grain isn’t grown and then immediately shipped to the pizza factory as flour.  There are silos.  There are cows in the field.  There are vats of wine fermenting, and barrels of whiskey aging, and the porthole to the alternate dimension where marshmallows come from is holding up fine.  A lot of our food is in the process of being made at any given time.

But this week the shelves were full.  In Modern Mayberry, we had full shelves of everything except toilet paper.  There was sugar, meat, eggs, milk.  Okay, there wasn’t any chicken, but isn’t chicken really just poultry Jell-O®?  But there was plenty of nearly everything else.  How much of those full shelves wasn’t because of the distribution system, but because people were out of money?

That scares me.  People need food.

Finally, there’s a third force.  People who do have money are hanging on to it.  In a very rational fashion, they’ve decided that they have no idea what’s coming next, so best to keep all the spare change in the candy dish available, so to speak.  And spare change in the candy dish doesn’t move in the economy.  It just sits there.

In part, our financial system is built around a concept called money velocity.  In simple terms, after I spend a dollar, how fast does that dollar get spent on something else?  When it moves around quickly, it can account for a lot of transactions in a short period, it seems like there is more money than there really is because it keeps being spent, again and again.  It sounds like a hot check, but it’s not.

VELOC

I actually liked economics classes in college.  It was like a nap, but with a grade at the end.

If you consider that this money came from a checking account, in general according to the statistics a dollar in a checking account bounced around over five times in 90 days at the end of 2019.  That means:

  • I got paid and,
  • I bought some toilet paper from Wal-Mart™ and,
  • Wal-Mart® paid their cashier with my dollar and,
  • The cashier bought my old bicycle and,
  • And I bought some more toilet paper from Wal-Mart©.

It’s simple.  But what if there’s no toilet paper?  Well, then the second half of the transaction never happens.  I just sit on my dollar.  It’s not moving around in the economy.  That means, even if the Fed prints trillions of these dollars, it’s not enough to offset the fact that there’s no toilet paper to buy and that no one is going out to eat for the last month.

Those transactions just never happened.

And people like me that sit on a chunk of their pay?  That drops the velocity on that stack of money to zero until I use it.  Right now, people are in general sitting on every dollar they can, unless they have a good source for bargain toilet paper, and I guess they’re sitting on that, too.

Because of those conditions, a lot of things will cost less instead of more, at least in the near-term future.  Does that apply to everything?

No.

Things that are in demand, and are in genuinely short supply, will increase in price.  Take gold and silver, for instance.  The price of silver today is $15 an ounce, according to Kitco™.  To buy a silver coin?  That’s $24 a coin.  The $9 difference?  That’s the price to get a coin by the United States Mint or from the Canadian Mint.  Silver bars, which have a generally smaller premium?  Forget it.  Kitco© doesn’t have a single one in stock.

So not everything will deflate like my ego after losing that fistfight to William Shatner at Fight Club.  Oops.  Wasn’t supposed to mention that.  Shhh.

inflate

Pugsley tried to Photoshop® something for me, but I told him that teenagers can only do minor editing, at least until they turn 18.

But houses will deflate like a bouncy castle after being jumped on by a dozen toddlers covered with hypodermic needles – but enough about New York City.  How many people are buying and selling houses now?  No one is.  How many people are moving for a new job?

No one is.

Let’s take another example, the New Zealand dollar.  The New Zealand dollar is a currency I’ve followed for several years, just for grins.  I like to imagine buying a New Zealand winery and retiring there to be a funeral director.  I just found out where New Zealanders bury lopsided people – asymmetry.  Trust, me it’s funnier if you read the last word in a New Zealand accent.

In the last 15 years, the very best the New Zealand dollar has ever done against the United States dollar was a little shy of $0.90.  Right now, you can get a New Zealand dollar for about $0.60.  If you look at history, as long as people think of the United States dollar as “safe,” you get people jumping out of currencies like the New Zealand dollar into the United States dollar whenever they get skittish.

DIVERS

Here’s hoping the sheep don’t figure out they outnumber humans in New Zealand.

The United States having a zillion nuclear warheads probably makes people think it’s safe, so they take their money from all over the world.  Instead of buying New Zealand dollars, they buy United States dollars, which makes United States dollars increase in value.

The New Zealand dollar has deflated.

I would have bet that would happen, and it has.  Imagine all the sheep and, um . . . more sheep you could buy with your new expensive United States dollars?

Can I predict what assets are going to drop in price, by how much, and for how long?

No, I can’t.

But be aware that the rules that you are used to aren’t going to apply.

Will there be inflation?

I think so, after a while, and depending upon where and when the Federal Reserve tosses all those scads of money from the printer that goes brrrr.  But if you had just lost your job, and got a check for $10,000 would you spend it on PEZ®, pantyhose, and elephant rides right now?  Of course not.  But it may be farther off into the future than you anticipate.  Houses won’t inflate until people have enough money to buy one.  Unless the Fed fills people’s pockets with money and forces them to buy a house, they won’t.  Would I buy one in San Francisco for $2 million right now?  Would you?

No.

calcutta

Hmmm, makes those Oklahoma double-wide jokes seem a little, umm, self-serving?

Those assets are frozen, harder than a two-year-old’s grubby grip on a Gummy Worm©.  And good luck borrowing money on a house for what it was “worth” yesterday.  In the last bust, I went from bankers offering me more money than I could pay back on my signature before the housing bust to having to having to find a receipt to prove I hadn’t stolen that Spice Girls™ CD I listed as one of my assets.  Banks always seem to close the barn door in a timely fashion, at least one month after the horse ran away.

Inflation?  Sure.  But before then that Shelby GT 350™ will be down another 20%, I bet.

Money printer go brrrrr.

Shelby GT   350® go Rawarrrrr?  But on a budget, right?