“I got nowhere else to go!” – An Officer and a Gentleman
I think I might have been the only person in my state where “Juan” was my nickname. I guess that makes me Juan in a million.
I recently bought the book How Civil Wars Start (And How to Stop Them) by Barbara F. Walter (2022, Crown). When I bought it, I bought it used to save a few bucks. When it arrived, The Mrs. looked at the title and noted, “Oh, as if you weren’t already on enough lists.”
After I read the book, I was really glad that I bought it second-hand because the last thing I would want to ever do is put money into the hands of the Leftist harpy who wrote it. I generally like people, especially people I haven’t met. To be frank, after reading Ms. Walter’s book, I really, really detest her for reasons I’ll discuss during and especially towards the end of the review.
Not that I have any opinions. There was, however, some interesting information. Because of that, I thought I’d give a review of the book so you don’t have to read it if you don’t want to. And, since I’m discussing 90% of the interesting parts, there’s no reason you should buy this book.
First, the way this book was written was through a series of emotionally loaded stories only then followed by the actual research. The book was 226 pages before the notes and acknowledgements, and could have been half that length, if Walter wasn’t writing endless bad-romance-book-level summaries of people who had seen civil wars. These weren’t interesting or useful like Selco’s Sarajevo experiences, but just stories (all with a Leftist bent) meant to make the reader feel. I am skipping discussion of any of these insipid parts that were meant to twist your emotions because you can watch network tv if you want to.
You can thank me for that in the comments.
What do Green Eggs and Ham and Fifty Shades of Grey have in common? They both encourage people who can barely read to try new things.
I hate being manipulated, and this book was just that, but it was manipulation at the level of a clumsy middle school girl level of soft puppy dog eyes. For example, the first segment was a breathless analysis of the kidnap plot against Gretchen Whitmer, complete with blame of the 3%ers, Qanon supporters, and the Proud Boys.
Missing?
The fact that the entire case against the “kidnappers” collapsed in Federal court because the FBI was responsible for it from start to finish. Yes. The kidnapping was the idea of the FBI. But Walter, despite having this information, is the CNN® of writers, skipping over actual facts to sell her feels.
Skipping to the parts that are interesting, she notes that there has been an attempt to classify where countries lie along a spectrum of governance: +10 is a full democracy, like Denmark. -10 is a full autocracy, like Best Korea. Very few civil wars occur when countries are close to the ends of the spectrum. Why would you have a civil war in Denmark? What, you don’t like pastries and hot Danish girls? And in Best Korea, the state has such control from cradle to grave of the citizens that the idea of revolt is nearly impossible. The country even has approved hairstyles.
From the book, page 22. How I got the weird light effects, I’ll never know.
So, -10 and +10 are safe from civil war. The danger zone is -5 (think, Czar Nicholas II) to +5 (think Putin/Zelensky/Biden). It’s a time where the state is generally moving from either democracy toward autocracy or vice versa. Due to the change, it’s weaker. The name they made up for a country in that zone is an anocracy. Examples provided include places where I’d never want to have a vacation:
- Serbia (1990s)
- Bosnia (1990s)
- Spain (1930s)
- Rwanda (1990s)
- Ukraine (2010s)
I found it interesting that the state being poor, unequal, heterogeneous, or repressed didn’t count as much as to where the country sat on the governance scale. The idea is that the countries are weaker – there is division, there are no social guardrails, and the state is therefore susceptible to a chain reaction due to an event – think George Floyd or cancelling Firefly – that will start the war.
The next condition increasing the likelihood of civil war is the creation of factions. These factions were often based on racial groups, ethnic groups, or religious groups, or some combination. The biggest sign of coming difficulty was the exclusion of these groups from power. Losing the presidency through changing all the rules into Biden’s favor (and perhaps some counting shenanigans) in 2020 is livable. 2024 loss? Normally, that wouldn’t be an issue.
But in this case, a particular group senses opportunity or demographic change (from the book). This results in increased tension, partisanship, and group identification. Chances double if there is a group tension. If the country is an anocracy? The chances of civil war go up by a factor of thirty.
Blacksmiths generally box in the smelterweight division.
Want it to get even worse? If the tension is ethnic/racial plus religion, class, or geography? That increases the chances of civil war by a factor of 12 versus a homogeneous society. In the United States in the 1950s (for example) the chances of civil war were nearly zero because the society was very close to homogeneous.
When a group is left out, and no longer has a chance of winning, no access to government, no access to political power, that tension is formed. It’s even larger if that group used to be in control and lost power. One researcher called these people, “Sons of the Soil”. The characteristics of this group were:
- They lived on territory they conquered or settled
- They consider themselves “native” and the rightful heirs
- They were or had been the majority
This group is likely to rebel at twice the rate of others, and are generally a much more capable foe.
What sets these Sons of the Soil off? They see their:
- Culture,
- Language,
- Holidays, and
- Religion replaced.
Outsiders swamp them. Walter quotes David Horowitz, “Numbers are an indicator of whose country it is.” Of course, by that standard, California is Mexico, and immigration is often a flashpoint to civil war.
Yes, this is a thing that’s happening. But by “back” they mean Texas. Silly cosmopolitan elites!
Finally, loss of hope is a precipitator for civil war. If there is no route to power, hope disappears, just like happened to the South during Civil War 1.0. What is a loss of power? As we discussed previously, in real terms, two losses in a row at the national level is a loss of power.
One thing Walter doesn’t like is social media, and the voice it provides people. She notes that it heightens ethnic, social, religious, and geographic divisions. My general take from reading her was, “we control the media, and if you don’t like it, too bad, racist.” Proof? She’s upset that Swedish people are running on the idea of “restoring their national home” and stopping the never-ending influx of rather lawless refugees that are anything but Swedish. For the Swedish people to want a national home is apparently racist.
Walter categorizes the Right as appealing to the “primitive” (her word) ideas of nation, protection, The Other, anger, and fear. I mean, why shouldn’t the Swedes want to an import a group of people that rape so much that the police stopped reporting demographics of the rapist because they didn’t want to support hate?
I mean, really, why would we want to make Sweden more Pakistani?
On Ms. Walter’ chapter, “How Close Are We” she:
- Spits out a litany of Leftist talking points about January 6 and Michigan, ignoring entirely the George Floyd protests.
- Notes that “Global trade agreements were signed that benefited coastal elites (her words!) at their (working class whites) expense.
Open insurgency is the last phase. Where are we now? Here is Walter: “We are a factionalized anocracy that is quickly approaching the open insurgency stage, which means that we are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.”
Walter has a chapter on, “What A War Would Look Like”. I’ll summarize it this way: it’s the same sort of thoughts that a bright six-year-old might have about drinking beer at a frat party. Sure she might be able to describe it in vague terms, but, let’s face it, until you’ve carried your drunken buddy upstairs to pass out near a trash can, it’s all academic. She’s bizarrely fixated on 4chan, to the point that she thinks the Boogaloo Bois weren’t just a meme. Imagine, an academic trolled by /pol/ by pretending that the civil war will be led by people in Hawaiian shirts? Again. Like it hasn’t happened about 200 times at this point.
Also, the book was written before the chip implant change. She thought that the Right would flock to Ukraine to fight on the side of the Neo-Nazi Azov group. Huh. Guess that idea aged like milk.
Her final chapter is on how to prevent a civil war. It’s simple! Just do anything that AOC says!
Really. This chapter is nothing more than list of “do everything on the main list of Democrat objectives in 2021, and the world will be awesome!” This particular chapter raised my blood pressure high enough that when I started sweating my handkerchief came away pink. Sample line: “Countries that try to stop immigration will slowly die . . . “ Yeah. It’s chock full of lies.
This is also when we found that Barbara’s parents were both immigrants to the United States, and Barbara, though born here, seems to hate here. She wants to change the United States that drew her parents here (89%+ white, homogeneous, far-Right by her standards) into a nation that resembles the mess her parents fled from. Her husband seems even worse – he’s a dude that doesn’t have the guts to have his wife take his name, was born in Canada from immigrant parents that fled Soviet-era Hungary.
And it sounds like Barbara would be happier living in the approaching Soviet Canada than in the United States that she and her ilk helped create through their ideology since they discussed moving there. She’s an American because of a piece of paper issued by a bureaucrat, has no roots here, and will happily move on to the next country to destroy.
Shocking, that. Walter thinks that people with the values of the 1950s, the 1960s, the 1970s, the 1980s, and the 1990s are now “Far Right” and wants them out of the military. In reality? It was always, always those guys who made up the military.
Barbara F. Walter is a member of the cosmopolitan elite (her quote, not mine!) and is a rootless blight on the world and is no more American than that Chinese kidney I bought off of Ebay® the other day. Since she and her gutless husband wanted to run and hide at the slightest bit of trouble in her Leftist dreams, she and I?
We are not the same. I am American, I’ve got nowhere else to go.
Matt: Tell me: what’s the difference between us and them?
Jed: Because . . . we live here.
I’m starting to pull my head out of the “Who run Barter Town?” Meme and look around to see the Victors write history. Plans for civil war are irrelevant when you find the catalytic converter cut off your car and the police giggle at your request to “do SOMETHING!”
While I’ve been reading your blog and following from the first “Civil war report” they have been winning battle after battle. Looted grocery store, canceled business owner, window smashed, cars stolen, kids overdosed, homeless encampments taking private/public property, martyrdom for the trany who killed your kids, arrest for no mask ++++++the list is too long.
People are leaving the cities and surrendering vast swaths of their country and countrymen. It’s not as sexy as a Matt Bracken novel, but far more realistic.
Well said. I have long maintained that D.C. is lost to us. NYC is lost to us. SF? Lost to us. Those aren’t vast swathes, but small bits.
The blues have basically schitt their box and are moving to a new box and will schitt in that one too. Then theres allllll these so called normies out here who are just oblivious aka willfully ignorant.
His novels portray a country quite similar to this. His advice is to leave the blue hives, not ‘fight for them’.
As long as we are airing the Leftist viewpoint today, here’s an intro to (new one to me) anocracy I found that’s actually pretty illuminating. The author is from Franklin, TN so instead of Coastal Cosmopolitan he’s sort of South-of-Nashville-Think-Al-Gore Cosmopolitan. Spoiler alert: it’s all Trump’s fault.
https://smokymountainnews.com/archives/item/32926-you-ll-need-to-know-this-word-anocracy
Somehow instead of worrying about a slippage from democracy to anocracy, we need to be worrying about slippage from a constitutional republic to a democracy. Spoiler alert: it’s all Congress’s fault.
I’m shocked, shocked . . . that a group could write a whiney editorial that misses . . . all the points.
The fever dream of the lefty crowd, a toy story revolution with them winning because they’re awesome. Followed by tbe camps and re-education schemes.
Naturally there will be no pushback from anyone because of the awesomeness of the ‘New Elite’
Oh, they’d like to do that right now. And they’ve shown that re-education to them means . . . us not breathing anymore.
Sadly, 1/3 of the electorate takes her drivel as gospel. And another 15-20% give a few of her illogical conclusions some credence.
So, we’re screwed. Big time. And she needs to move to Cuba, where there’s no forthcoming Civil War.
She should move to whatever place meets her ideology, rather than screwing up our house.
You bought a book written by somebody named ‘Barbara’? You mean with real money, not PEZ credits?
Everybody already knows what Barbara and Karen believe and want. Decade after doomed decade. The results are everywhere around us, it being the nation of Barbara and Karen.
I bought it, so you don’t have to. And, I read it, so you don’t have to.
This is a more reasoned discussion of the topic – and requires no dinero to read! Of course you get what you pay for …
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/on-secession-and-civil-war
I subscribe to Simplicius. Good stuff, though I have better hair.
That photo of Caucescu and his hagfish getting the AK-47 treatment is why Civil Wars and revolutions rock.
Much dancing and celebration after WE clean the stables.
Enemies of the people get what they deserve and the AK is the only that that works to ever come out of the steaming egalitarian pile of nation wrecking socialism.
After a fair trial, of course.
Civil war in the U.S. would be best described as the war between the cities and the country. Cities would quickly become desolate ruins run by anarchists, and the country surrounding the cities filled with well armed people, repelling the attempts at scavenging. Foreign countries would face their own economic ruin, wait for the violence to end, and see what they can do with what’s left. Those in any government position would be seen as creators of the mayhem, and those obviously involved with the events that destroyed the country would be hunted for their crimes. The outcome? Centuries of progress ruined by stupidity, unnecessary deaths, and the loss of important historical documents.
She did mention that – it was the Sarajevo war. But, I was 2x my normal post length already. In the end? The country folk won.
Forgive me as I do not recall where I read it… but I am sure it was one of “Viktor Suvorov’s” books about the GRU, that, “Revolutions occur when oppression is unexpectedly lifted.”
Exactly. Or when it unexpectedly falls.
I’m not sure where you got the idea that all of the accusations against the men who were plotting to kidnap Whitmer collapsed. A quick search turns up this gem (with some possibly important context omitted by the search engine):
Dec 27, 2022 — Gretchen Whitmer was sentenced Tuesday to 16 years in prison for conspiring to abduct the Democrat and blow up a bridge to ease an escape.
I got that from AP News, honest!
But, seriously, whether or not it was a just trial for a serious threat, Adam Fox has been sentenced to prison for it.
Adam Fox’s lawyer argued as follows:
Fox was regularly exposed to “inflammatory rhetoric” by FBI informants, especially Army veteran Dan Chappel, who “manipulated not only Fox’s sense of ‘patriotism’ but also his need for friendship, acceptance and male approval,” Gibbons said.
The Government wanted a life sentence, and was disappointed at 16 years.
In April, two other men were acquitted (after being held in jail for 18 months) and but Adam Fox and one other resulted in a hung jury. Two others pled guilty, and testified for the government. (I wonder how they feel about that decision now.)
Good catch – it was in that case where the shenanigans came to light. When does the FBI go on trial?
Soon.
You might also like to read “The Anatomy of Revolution”, by Crane Brinton. First edition: 1938, updated 1965. Describes revolutions in England, the United States, France, and Russia. Would-be revolutionaries should pay particular attention to the consistency with which those who come out on top in the new order liquidate those of their allies who come in just slightly lower, because they’re the ones who pose the greatest threat to them.
Agreed. One word – Trotsky.
I’ll take Lev Davidovich Bronstein in a Mexican Villa with an Ice Axe.
Ice Axe- when you can’t find any crampons in Mexico City to curb-stomp a Commie…
Ice climbing axe? So, was Yvon Choinard involved?
There it is . . . archive.org. Thanks!
https://archive.org/details/anatomyofrevolut0000unse
Don’t forget the obligatory post-excrement-wading shower.
And one-star the book on the ‘zon, with a detailed fisking.
Thanks for taking one for the team.
FWIW, it sounds like the best way to stop a civil war would be if someone liberated Walter.
From her meatsuit.
NTTAWWT.
Great point, Aesop. I think I can add a good one there. I’d just settle on liberating our country from her.
I was recently watching Game of Thrones and the whinny character complained that:
“But, I have no where to go!”
Where upon the complainee states the simple fact:
“You have Everywhere else to go!” (with the idea that complainy, whinny, irritating person should get on with going everywhere and anywhere but where she is now)
I have watched my country that I have sworn to preserve and defend be destroyed by the these whiners.
I pledged my life and Honor and that pledge has NO Expiration date.
I am NOT going ANYWHERE else, because THIS is my Home, my Family, my town, my country.
THIS is why the “Cosmopolitan Elite” had better Hope and Pray they don’t get froggy and decide to dance to the tune of Civ 2.0, because their social construct, their world view, even their belief system is way past due for an update that will make Carthage look like a polite discussion over tea and biscuits.
We as a people have grown apart very slowly, and in the past decade that gulf has grown very vast, very quickly
(Can you say Tranny Story Hour for kids as Required learning?)
The “Cosmopolitan Elite” are NOT citizens of my country, we have no common ground in society, Rule of Law, Morals, or even humor or Love. I would Love to live in the society that my forefathers built, that my Grandparents improved and my parents improved yet again.
Yet the “Cosmopolitan Elite” HATES that country and society and wants to destroy it and re-make it to something else.
The “Cosmopolitan Elite” had better figure out a way to back down from Civ 2.0 because I am NOT leaving or surrendering MY home.
If the “Cosmopolitan Elite” can’t or won’t step back from Civ 2.0 they had better GO anywhere else or prepare to be updated to a software version that is compatible with our society/morals/values.
(That software version is quite good for the crops when properly composted)
MSG Grumpy
I have not a single thing to add to this. Perfect. Thank you, sir!
You mean Baba Wawa, the Madonna of 60 Minutes, is a died-in-the-wool Global Leftist? Say it isn’t so!
Let’s check Wiki’s “Early Life” section… Yup. Just like always.
Nah, she’s a nearly 60 whiney Leftist born in NYC from immigrant parents. And she’s still alive. Dunno about the early life.
I find it delightful that they are scared shitless.
Ditto. And still very, very, stupid.
Nothing will really pop here in Amerika until we go full Weimar. There is still too much product available at Costco, Wally World, and the local supermarkets here in Winterfell(North ID). Stay prepped. Stay tuned. Identify all local collaborators and snitches. Bleib ubrig.
Oh, there will be plenty of products when the balloon goes up. No one will have money to buy them, though.
She sounds… Amish.
Dunno? But I do know she’s only American in paperwork only.
I am late to the game. I started about two years ago seeking information on the probability of a civil war. That’s when I found the Civil War Weather Report. During my initial research period I watched a Youtube of Ms.Baba F Wawa. I too found her a West Coast Liberal and very shallow in detail. I was lucky, I never bought her book.
Thanks for commenting, and thanks for coming back!
I haven’t seen her on video, and will probably avoid it – seriously, her last chapter made my blood pressure go up higher than the pressure Biden put on Ukraine to keep the cash flowing.
I checked early life. Couldn’t find what I expected. Wh where did her parents come from?
Mom: Swiss. Father: Germany.