The One Where I Prove Electric Cars Are A Lie

“For more enjoyment and greater efficiency, consumption is being standardized.” – THX1138

Patton never colored his hair, because my heroes never dye.

Electric cars are a scam.  A really, really big one, and in ways that most people aren’t talking about.  My original sentence that I typed said, “in ways that moist people aren’t talking about” but I feel moist today, so that didn’t fit.  Let me explain.  About the cars.  Not why I’m moist – this is supposed to be a family-friendly blog.

Electric cars are, in most ways, absolutely inferior to cars powered by Oil, Our Slippery Friend™.  Why?  The technology is relatively new, the first electric car (really a locomotive, but who’s counting) having been invented only in 1842 in Edinburgh by engineer Robert Davidson.  It traveled at the breakneck speed of 4 miles per hour, which is roughly 4 miles per hour faster than Davidson could move after a fifth of something that John Walker® (yes that one) might have been selling back then.

So, it’s not fair to judge electric cars, since they have been only developing for 180 or so years.  It’s still an infant technology.  Oh, wait.

How can you say it’s not an infant technology?  It sucks.

But California has decided to ban the sale of new gasoline cars by 2035.  Hurray, California!  You’re geniuses beyond imagination!  You’ll single-handedly solve global warming.

Or . . . will that pesky math get in the way?

Let’s see – in order to get California girls to the beach, it takes 13.8-15 billion gallons of gasoline.  We’re skipping diesel for now, and just dealing with gasoline.  I’ll use 15 billion gallons because in the immortal words of the captain of the Hindenburg, “Close enough.”

Let’s do the math.

15 billion gallons of sweet, sweet gasoline is 500 TW-h (that’s terawatt hours, which is the metric equivalent 5,000 bushels per fortnight).  California produces in electricity, in total . . . drumroll please, 277 TW-h.  So, California produces slightly more than half the electricity needed by its stunning new fleet of cars.

All I can say is that’s shocking!

To keep just the same level of energy production available for homes (because, presumably, all new citizens between now and then will live in tents) that California will need to triple the amount of power it produces.  If you count in increased uses for the iAndroid™ Eleventy-X® and GameBoxStation 2000©, the grid will have to multiply by four or five times.  And, remember, we skipped diesel engines, so it’s nearly certain that my estimate is low.

And if they tried to make those cars run on PEZ® (normal PEZ©, not PEZ™ made of anti-matter) it would require 278 quadrillion PEZ™, if you assumed that you could burn PEZ™ at the same efficiency that you could burn gasoline.  And that would be 278 quadrillion PEZ© a year.  Every year.

Hey, if this PEZ™ idea works out I could mint money.

To quote Monty Python on a related matter, “Where’s the fetus going to gestate?  In a box?”, we’ve reached a point where politics cease in any reasonable fashion to correlate to reality.  As I’ve seen in recent years, California’s electrical grid is in a shambles, so much so that, rather than be blamed for creating the periodic apocalypse-level fires, the various utilities have been hiring homeless people to burn forests so they don’t get blamed for all of the fires.

In reality, it’s not their fault.  Californians keep using electricity, but the process for building reliable infrastructure is so Sovietized that to upgrade their transmission lines requires more paperwork than conductor wire, by weight, and takes longer than Biden does to remember that John McCain died half a decade ago.  And this is a state that’s going to quintuple energy production?

Using what?

Seriously, where do they think energy comes from?  Oh, I forgot.  Outlets.  “Why do we need more power plants?” I can hear President Kamala asking, “There’s always power when I plug something into an outlet.  Besides, if we lost electricity we could watch television by candlelight.”  The answer is that the energy has to come from someplace, like the dams they’ve been destroying, the nuclear power plants they’ve been shutting down, or the coal plants that they won’t allow to be built.

Perhaps they could use the power of the Void?

If it were just that level of stupid, it’s survivable.  But it’s more than stupid, it’s greedy stupid, and here’s the rub:  they’re doing this to soak the folks buying cars.

Let’s take, me.  My newest car is (I think) a 2016.  It was paid for in . . . 2016.  My daily driver is a 2010.  It’s got a 130,000 miles on it, and I replaced the engine in it at 115,000 miles, and it cost $5,400.  At 5,000-10,000 miles a year?  It might last another decade, easily.  It’s not complicated, the air conditioner works, and it’s comfortable.

Try that with an electric car, I dare you.  My 2010 had the engine blow up.  $5,400, plus tax, and I was back to happy motoring.  A Chevy® Volt™ had a bad battery.  $29,842.  Snopes™ even confirmed it was the real deal.  But they tried to put a good spin on it.  “It was an antique car” that was two years younger than mine, “and the battery technology was old.”

I hope the car bought her a drink first.

I have one car that is now 20 years old.  How many batteries would it have had to go through?  And you can be certain that the latest bill to replace it would have made the entire car worthless.  Period.

This is an odd game.  Cars had become very, very reliable, some lasting 300,000 or more miles with only routine maintenance.  There’s a reason that, aside from the AK-47, the Toyota® HiLux© is the brand of choice of insurgent armies everywhere.  They last forever, and you can mount multiple heavy weapons on them.

That just won’t do.  As a consumer, you have to be made to consuuuuume.  Me?  With my old car, I’ve more than offset the “carbon debt” caused by making it, so replacing it will actually be damaging to the climate (if you believe in that sort of thing).  And electricity will have to involve tossing more carbon into the atmosphere and will cost a lot more, so it’s not that, either.

Joe Biden is making helping stop energy usage – every time he’s on TV people turn it off.

No, the root cause is that cars are too reliable and people are using them far too long.  If you have a paid-off car, you’re not paying interest.  You’re not paying for new car plants.  You become an economic black hole and the powers that be will do anything (and I mean anything) to force you to consuuuuume.  Remember digital TV?  I saw several articles where economists were calculating the economic uplift from forcing everyone to junk their old televisions for new ones.

Let’s consuuuuume!  And with electric cars, use ‘em or not, they rot away so you’ll have to pay $29,000 for a new battery or consuuuuume a new car.  Emissions?  Who cares?  We’ve got to keep people slaving away, paying interest, and buying the new thing.  Insane?  Certainly.

What did Californians use to light their homes before they had candles?  Electricity.

Thankfully we have television and commercials.  I’m sure that they will be used for good and not to convince everyone that the point of their life is consumption.

Well, I guess now you know why I’m moist.  Too much time consuuuuuming.

Civil War Weather Report: The Last Election?

“Messy thing, elections.” – Rome

If Democrats get their way, we’ll never have a long, protracted election count to learn who won again.  We’ll know before the election.  Besides, I’ve been told that if your election lasts more than 24 hours, you should call a physician.

  1. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  2. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
  3. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
  4. Open War.

I’ve kept the Clock O’Doom the same, though tensions are certainly increasing.  The advice remains.  Avoid crowds.  Get out of cities.  Now.  A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue:  Front Matter – Election 2022 – Violence And Censorship Update – Biden’s Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – How It Starts:  Canada – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report.  These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month.  I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues.  Also, subscribe because you’ll join over 720 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.  Most of today’s memes are free-range, and not originals.  The crop was really good this month.

Election 2022

Since I’ve been a kid, each election has been framed as, “the most important in American history”.  As of now, the Left is looking to spike the ball and end any challenge to their power now and into the future:  they want to change the rules.

Well, at least we know who Hunter votes for. 

Right now, the Senate is the only roadblock to federalizing all state elections, by putting forward a slate of rules that make election fraud trivial.  Why wouldn’t the people on the Right cheat?  Well, first off, we’re not that organized.  It’s true.  I think it was Charles Péguy who said it:  “Tyranny is always better organized than freedom,” which makes sense.  And don’t think that the Left doesn’t make use of that fact.

WWWT?  (What Would Watterston Think?).

The result of this is that fair elections will cease to exist.  Me?  I want elections to be harder.  I’d love it if people had to graph an equation and name four consecutive presidents from the 1800s to vote.  As such, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to require an identification card to vote, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to ask someone to vote on a specific day and to have registered thirty days before.

Oh, and the legislation?  Apparently, it makes it illegal for states to remove dead people from the voter list automatically.  But what it does give them is control.  And the Senate leadership is willing to go all-out on this one, eliminate the filibuster, and ram this down.

Why not?  It gives the Left control, forever.

Always remember the stakes.

Violence And Censorship Update

Measuring violence in 2020 was pretty easy – a riot here, a murder there, and adding in the numbers was pretty straightforward.  Violence hasn’t dropped, it’s just become, well, boring.  There are thousands more murders, but they just look like normal crimes.  As cops don’t want to risk life in jail for stopping a drugged-out banana-buyer, many district attorneys have been bought and paid for by Soros to enact just the street violence we’re seeing today.  So, measuring direct political violence is hard.  I’m not giving up, just noting that the violence is still there, but just not as easy to track.

Russian Gas

A Russian Twitch® streamer had his account censored.  His transgression?  He had a live stream going from his house showing his gas burners on his stove on, continually.  I guess that made some people pretty hot.

Kiwi Farms

I’m not going into the really weird history of this website.  I’ve been there a couple of times, and it wasn’t for me.  That being said, it has been the subject of a full-court press by trans activists that want to have it shut down, and have been doing a pretty good job of getting it deplatformed again and again.  On balance, it was probably less dangerous than Twitter®, but it didn’t agree with the current norm.

New Zealand

I’d prefer Kiwi Farms to what’s going on with the Kiwis in New Zealand.  New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Ratty McRatface, er, Jacinda Ardern, has come out against freedom and free speech.  Her takeaway quote:  “How do you tackle climate change if people don’t believe it exists?”  Also, I believe that she is now looking for a block of cheese to gnaw on.

Facebook®

I missed this one last month – Facebook© has banned the hashtag #diedsuddenly because, well, it is forbidden to question the safety of a “vaccine” developed in a few hours and delivered in an experimental manner using technology never before implemented on a wide scale.  I mean, what could go wrong?

Biden’s Misery Index

Let’s take a look to see how we’ve done this month . . . .

Yup, up again.  And I wonder when Biden will determine that begging isn’t a strategy?

 

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time.  They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings.  As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index.  On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Violence ticked slightly downward this month and the abortion backlash subsided.   Will October be spicy due to elections?  I’m betting not.

Political Instability:

Up is more unstable, and it dropped a bit more – wait until October – it might be big.

Economic:

Economic indicators shot down this month.  Inflation has caught up with the Market.  Not good.

Illegal Aliens:

For the first time in the last year, I can’t say that It set a new record for this time of year.  But it was close.  Must still be hot out.

How It Starts:  Canada

In my opinion, the real reason that we haven’t been in a Civil War yet is we lack a unifying reason.  Canada might just have found one:  guns.  In the United States, I’m not going to say that we’re fond of guns, but it really is built into the national DNA.  From Lexington and Concord to last weekend, Americans love shooting guns.  Why?

Freedom, I guess.  And I’d also toss out that the founding stock that are ancestors of a majority of the people in the country were a bit wild.  This selected for people who sought freedom.  If that was the case, and if attitudes are genetically handed down, people who came here to be free passed that down genetically.

In Canada, however, there is a bill up that would restrict guns immensely – one summary indicated that you could no longer transfer handguns from one owner to anyone else, and that buybacks would “intensify”.

These buybacks are always sold on the basis of “safety” but we all know what the real goal is.

But in Canada, in the Prairie provinces, they’re having Nunavut.  Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan are preparing to nullify this gun grab.

There is even talk about them leaving Canada altogether, which would be awesome.  Then you could go from the tip of Alaska down to the toe of Florida and be in a free country the whole way.  I’m pretty sure that we could get along, since they speak the language, like hockey, and make okay beer.  Oh, and combine them with the Red States in America?  We have most of the oil, most of the food, and most of the guns.

Sounds like a winner.

LINKS

As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky.  Thanks so much, Ricky!!

Bad Guys

https://twitter.com/DionLimTV/status/1574542273773117440

https://youtu.be/ghMb9xHU31s
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1572360002798485504

https://twitter.com/i/status/1566119675758624771

https://twitter.com/i/status/1566815458254376961

https://twitter.com/citizens_sanity/status/1566131407654715394

https://twitter.com/i/status/1569726738355339266

https://twitter.com/eclipsethis2003/status/1568009704877719552

https://twitter.com/ProfanityNewz/status/1567724993412304897
https://youtu.be/YULQKb68FHM

https://youtu.be/VWCTlcczmOo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hET1H6RZVwQ

https://twitter.com/StokingFreedom/status/1570412128200171521

https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2022/09/26/philadelphias-story-worse-than-waah-waah-at-the-wawa-n499096

https://breaking911.com/get-in-the-closet-suspects-in-virginia-home-invasion-caught-on-camera/

https://twitter.com/MemphoNewsLady/status/1567748252992212992

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/memphis-mayor-blasts-facebook-streaming-mass-killers-early-release-4-our-fellow-citizens

https://heavy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/305915336_3142177816113006_7925894570550381876_n.mp4?_=1

Good Guys

https://twitter.com/i/status/1565566842365624320

https://twitter.com/conservmillen/status/1572192397018234888

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1572110371946901506

https://youtu.be/gNARbEgwkkI

 

One Guy

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1566887635217514498

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-teenager-shotgun-takes-down-two-home-invaders-one-escapes-1741782

https://twitter.com/i/status/1567525359352180737

 

Body Count

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/09/13/modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america/

https://gehweb.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/CalVEX-09.06.22.pdf

https://www.unz.com/jtaylor/more-murders/

https://www.realclearwire.com/articles/2022/09/28/opioids__work_hidden_scourge_sapping_the_economy_855616.html

https://www.sofx.com/these-kids-are-dying-inside-the-overdose-crisis-sweeping-fort-bragg-rolling-stone/

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/the-u-s-army-has-a-fentanyl-problem-thanks-to-mexico-and-china/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/09/07/oath-keepers-members-include-hundreds-of-elected-officials-police-and-military-personnel-leaked-list-suggests/?sh=3ee6cb0c5389

https://www.adl.org/resources/report/oath-keepers-data-leak-unmasking-extremism-public-life

https://www.theepochtimes.com/adults-aged-35-44-died-at-twice-the-expected-rate-last-summer-life-insurance-data-suggests_4711510.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge

https://www.theepochtimes.com/more-than-half-of-babies-toddlers-surveyed-had-systemic-reaction-after-covid-19-vaccine_4707948.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=cfp

https://goodsciencing.com/covid/athletes-suffer-cardiac-arrest-die-after-covid-shot/

https://archive.ph/MoP0V

Vote Count

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoMfIkz7v6s

https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1571351490165350402

https://youtu.be/bqBnp2AdH7Y

https://kanekoa.substack.com/p/have-chinese-spies-infiltrated-american

https://kanekoa.substack.com/p/fbi-conceals-chinese-infiltration

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-demonizes-maga-republicans-dems-spent-million-pro-trump-candidates-win-primaries

https://scheerpost.com/2022/09/05/chris-hedges-lets-stop-pretending-america-is-a-functioning-democracy/

https://internationalman.com/articles/doug-casey-on-class-warfare-eat-the-rich-sentiment-and-what-happens-next/

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/fairness-justice/delaware-judge-rules-vote-by-mail-law-unconstitutional-cannot-be-used-in-november

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/florida-watchdog-groups-allege-mail-ballot-and-voter-roll-violations-2020-2022

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/08/snap-voter-data-republican-democrats

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/pennsylvania-county-sued-over-illegal-ballot-drop-box-usage-captured-camera

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/pennsylvania-county-sues-dominion-voting-systems-over-severe-anomalies-2020-election

https://www.theepochtimes.com/exclusive-grassroot-election-integrity-movement-sweeps-battleground-states_4740686.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=CFP

https://uncoverdc.com/2022/09/27/jovan-hutton-pulitzer-election-day-ballots-may-have-been-inserted-in-maricopa-county/

https://nypost.com/2022/09/14/facebook-spied-on-private-messages-of-americans-who-questioned-2020-election/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11213581/Congress-age-senate-house.html

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022%2F09%2F12%2Fdoj-refuses-to-release-biden-administration-plan-to-intervene-in-2022-midterm-election%2F

https://www.insider.com/all-the-us-capitol-pro-trump-riot-arrests-charges-names-2021-1

https://spaceworms.substack.com/p/bribing-voters-is-getting-out-of

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-speech-had-it-all-backward-fascist-democratic-party-trump-ideology-america-jan-6-democracy-11662161065?mod=djemalertNEWS

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politics/election-workers-officials-harassment-kentucky-texas/index.html

https://www.foxnews.com/us/former-virginia-election-official-indicted-on-corruption-charges

 

Civil War

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1566522380280889347

http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=63335
https://mattlabash.substack.com/p/is-trump-pushing-civil-war

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/20/1124142684/some-compare-todays-political-divide-to-the-civil-war-but-what-about-the-1960s

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/05/why-ive-stopped-fearing-america-is-headed-civil-war/

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/09/can-we-drop-the-silly-idea-that-america-is-heading-for-a-civil-war

https://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2022/08/30/sarah-vowell-one-civil-war-was/

https://dailymontanan.com/2022/09/09/a-maga-led-civil-war-thats-not-going-to-happen/

https://nypost.com/2022/09/07/kathy-griffin-slammed-for-saying-republicans-will-start-a-civil-war/

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/us-civil-war-horizon

https://www.washingtonpost.com/podcasts/capehart/steve-phillips-on-how-we-win-the-civil-war/

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/greg-gutfeld-melting-pot-together-civil-war-isnt-possible

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/06/no-doomsday-bunker-not-a-single-gun-if-the-us-really-is-heading-for-civil-war-im-stuffed

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/psych-unseen/202209/mistrust-misinformation-and-the-possibility-civil-war-in-america

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/09/05/barbara-walter-civil-war-trump-doj-rehtoric-sot-nr-vpx.cnn

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3647063-can-civil-war-happen-again/

https://www.wired.com/story/the-end-of-roe-will-spark-a-digital-civil-war/

https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/politics-and-more/the-risk-of-a-new-american-civil-war

https://www.minotdailynews.com/opinion/editorials/2022/09/toward-a-second-american-civil-war/

https://www.msnbc.com/the-mehdi-hasan-show/watch/just-how-close-is-the-u-s-to-a-civil-war-148895813806

https://www.thedailybeast.com/cbs-star-reporter-major-garrett-fears-were-on-the-brink-of-civil-war

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/another-american-civil-war-take-heed-or-take-cover-204583

https://www.newsweek.com/civil-war-may-have-already-begun-msnbc-host-says-citing-maga-violence-1739679

https://macdailynews.com/2022/09/27/bill-gates-were-going-to-have-a-hung-election-and-a-civil-war/

https://amgreatness.com/2022/09/25/remembering-hate-speech/

https://roycewhite.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-to-joe-biden

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2022/09/04/conservatives-explain-how-i-am-a-threat-to-the-very-soul-of-this-nation-in-powerful-thread-making-biden-look-even-worsea/

https://summit.news/2022/09/07/poll-majority-believe-bidens-maga-extremists-speech-a-dangerous-escalation-in-rhetoric-designed-to-incite-conflict/

https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2022/09/05/f15-vs-ar15-bet-on-the-guys-with-the-guns-n2612609

The Economic End Of Europe

“I don’t get history. If I wanted to know what happened in Europe a long time ago, I’d watch Game of Thrones.” – Community

Why do communist governments always fail?  They cease the means of production.

(Memes today are mostly as-found.)

The handling of the war in Ukraine will go down as a historic blunder, rivaled by only a few events in history:

  • Archduke Franz Ferdinand deciding to go cruising down the road in his ragtop,
  • Socrates, who in his last words said, “I drank what??” (thanks, Real Genius), and
  • The forming of the band U2®.

The Western World had already been rocked by the response to COVID-19.  The economic shenanigans required to keep the economy on life support had been bad enough.  The entire debt-based currency system had been lurching back and forth more than Hillary Clinton after quality time with a bottle of gin and her “Madame President” scrapbook.

And bad things are going around in Switzerland, as we’ll see below.  And big trouble may lie ahead for Great Britain:

In truth, the recovery from the Great Recession hadn’t created any real structural changes.  The primary mechanism for preventing utter economic collapse was printing bucketloads of cash and shoving it into the faces of the banks so that they didn’t fail in a catastrophic and sequential fashion.  It isn’t the only time that irresponsible decision-making was rewarded with buckets of greenbacks, but let’s not dwell on Hunter Biden.

Where are we now?

Europe is facing an energy drought – one that (unless Russian gas shipments are resumed fairly quickly) will result in lowered economic output.  How bad?  Some have said, “Great Depression bad.”  The precursors of this can be seen in the cracks we see developing economically:

If the Pope commanded the cash be transferred electronically, would that have been a PayPal® order?

Now, one thing I do know:  religions are really, really good about keeping their eye on their cash.  I wonder if there was some reason that the Pope was wanting this financial move?  Was it because he like making Papal airplanes?  Or, was it because someone had tipped him off?

Why can’t the Pope be cremated?  He’s still alive.

People are betting that Credit Suisse® to fail.  They’re also betting that Deutsche Bank™ will fail.  Why?  When banks lend money to people that can’t pay it back, well, unless the Federal Reserve© comes around to stuff the banks full of cash, they fail.

So, COVID-19 hits, governments around the world print cash, but nothing is physically broken.  We can (sort of) pretend that the world is fine, and whistle through the graveyard and hope that we can squeak out another year of wild naked greased PEZ® parties, elephant rides, and pantyhose for everyone.

Then, Ukraine.  As I’ve said before, with a sane president capable of making good decisions, this would have been solved with a few phone calls, some Krispy Kreme doughnuts, and maybe a few coupons for 50%-off shrimp at Red Lobster™.  Nope.  Biden escalated all of it.

And, again, maybe (probably not, but maybe) in a world with an economy that had underlying actual strength, Biden could have pushed it just like he did and not cratered the entire economy of the West.

But he did.  And now the consequences cannot be avoided.  Interest rates are shooting up.

How high?

Oh, surely we aren’t in a real estate bubble.

Oops.  But at least the international community isn’t panicking.

Oh, they are?  Well, at least Biden hasn’t sold off our energy reserves in a naked bid to influence the 2022 election. 

Oh, he did?  Well, at least Biden has a good understanding of how energy markets work, and how supply and demand sets prices.

Oh.  Well, I guess that’s really scary.  Thankfully, no one is messing around with the fundamentals of reality.

Huh.  I guess my dog just quit.

Well, at least The Mrs. and I had a serious talk about the bedroom.

All foolishness aside, if Europe has an energy drought that lasts three years or more (one of the latest estimates I’ve seen) the results will be as devastating as a war.  Economies need jobs to produce wealth so people can have wild naked greased PEZ® parties, elephant rides, and pantyhose for everyone.

And, despite the magical thinking of some people on the Left, free anything (not just healthcare) isn’t free.  Someone, somewhere, has to work for it to pay for it, otherwise it’s slavery.  Which, I think, is fine for Leftists, because they never imagine themselves the slaves.

But I have faith, faith that the Swiss will save us.

The Swiss have a long and proud history.  This history goes back to at least 1307, or so the legend goes, to William Tell (the guy who shot the apple resting on his kid’s head).  In fact, William Tell and his son were in a bowling league, but the records of what team they were on are now lost to us.  We will never know for whom the Tells bowled.

Energy: We Need Everything. Now.

“No, Jonny. It consumes them. It eats energy:  sunlight, electricity, the energy in a living body.  Anything it can get.” – Jonny Quest

What do you do with a dead chemist?  Barium.

I remember way back in high school gym class when I was a freshman.  One day we showed up in the gym and saw a roughly six-foot diameter ball in the middle of the gym floor, as if a majestic bird the size of Alec Baldwin had left an egg for us.

That was new.

Coach said, “Welcome to Push Ball.  Wilder and Jones, you two are captains.  Pick your teams.”  Jones and I were on the football team together, so we divvied up the rest of the boys.  I think the girls were doing something like advanced couch-sitting that day.

Coach followed up:  “Here are the rules.  No rules.  If your team pushes the ball into the opposing team’s bleacher, you get a point.”  Technically, that was a rule, but I decided not to argue.

Pretty quickly I divined that part of the point of Push Ball was to burn up a lot of energy on a game that was very hard to win.  Probably “something, something teamwork blah blah blah”.

But then I looked at the ball.  It was filled with air, not Baldwin-DNA-soaked egg yolk, so it wasn’t all that heavy.  But it was way too big for any one person to grab.

It wasn’t entirely smooth, though.  There were laces.

These laces were like those on a football, except the gap between the laces was big – big enough to slip my fingers through.  I developed a plan.  I told my guys, “It’s gonna get easy – we’re gonna win.  When I say go, get in front of me and block.”

Alternate meme text:  “When the weather tells you to dress for the 100’s.”

As we played, I concentrated on rotating the laces towards me.  When they were right there about shoulder height, I slipped my fingers in the gaps between the laces, and got a good hold.

“Now!” I yelled.

With the leverage of the handhold, I could easily use the opposing team’s force to pop the ball back towards me, and up.  And with the ball gone, my guys got in front and blocked.  I ran, holding the absurdly large ball over my head with one hand and slammed it into the retracted bleachers causing the wood to reverberate under the mighty force, scoring the first point.

“THIS. IS. SPARTA!” I yelled.  Okay, no I didn’t, it sounds way cooler to pretend that I did.  And I sure as hell felt like Thor (not the fake Marvel® one) slamming his hammer and making the lightning crash.  Our team really did high five.

Coach blew his whistle.

“Okay, we now have a rule.  You can’t do that.”

We had a really good weightlifting facility.

Weirdly, this post is the second one about energy.  In one sense, our world is like that game of push ball.  We work to innovate and create breakthroughs to better use the energy we have.  The number of cars are up in the country, but the miles per gallon are way up, too.

Government would love to take credit for it, but it’s really not the case.  Sure the CAFE standards have led to higher mileage, but a lot of that is due to innovation that occurred outside of those standards.  When I read that the Trans Am® in Smokey and the Bandit only produced 200 horsepower, I realized that most of the cars I own have more power under the hood, and get better mileage.  I always wanted a car with a T-top like the Trans Am™ in high school, so my dates could have had more legroom.

I was considerate that way.

We have become more efficient at using energy, and that’s great.  But we find more uses for energy, too.  If I lived in the same house today in 1977, right now there would be zero power usage outside of the fridge and the freezer.  As it is, I’m watching a silly movie on a huge television while I type on a laptop with alarm clocks that don’t tick from springs winding down.  I’m happy for that, because if the alarm clock would go tic-tic-tic all night, it would keep The Mrs. awake and she’d want to toc.

Is my house using a lot of energy?  No, but there are a lot more devices in a home today using energy passively, like charging cell phones and security systems and “always on” televisions and computers and garage door openers on low power mode.

I drove up to my garage and saw someone had painted a “3” on it.  I thought, “That’s odd.”

Even industry is more efficient, generally, at using energy.  Modern manufacturing plants are expert at using what would have been waste heat in all sorts of ways to save energy, which in turn saves money.  I mean, don’t be an engineer if you’re not so hot in thermodynamics.

But at the base of all modern industry, energy is crucial.  It is the ultimate leverage.  One analyst noted that $20 billion in Russian natural gas was used by Germany to create $2 trillion in economic output.  That’s stuff made.  It’s amazing leverage – $1 in natural gas was the basis for creating $100 worth of added value.  Germany would like to start a war, but the rule is that it’s three Reichs, and you’re out.

Energy is that important.  And energy usage isn’t a linear progression – it has been exponential.  The problem is that energy usage is growing nearly exponentially.  If you look at any short-term graphs, it doesn’t quite show it, but here’s one that puts it in perspective.  I got it at Our World in Data (LINK) and it’s reused by CC (LINK).

If Ebola grew as fast as the world energy consumption, it would be called Hyperbola.

I think this one graph alone should be tattooed backward on the head of every Leftist who says BuT MUh ALtERnaTivE EneRgy.  Eliminate oil, coal, and natural gas, and you have a world that, roughly, has as much energy as 1920.

The world population right now is 7.97 billion people.  In 1920, the population was closer to 1.9 billion, which is roughly the number of people on a typical airplane nowadays.  In 1920 electricity was only in 35% of homes.  In the United States.  Most people in the world in 1920 had no electrical power usage at all, heated their homes with firewood or coal, and only saw electrical lights at the picture show.  Also, they were, sadly, almost sixty years too early to see Smokey and the Bandit.

Let’s go back to Germany (not the 1920 version) but today.  Just $20 billion in natural gas costs $2 trillion in value added.  Population is growing exponentially.  Energy use is growing exponentially.  We’re setting ridiculous ideas that we’ll be all-electric by 2030 by changing rules to limit innovation and declare winners.  It’s like Coach not allowing innovation in Push Ball, but this time with real-world consequences.

But those electric cars.  They’re powered by . . . what, exactly?  Seriously, look at the chart.  What?  Nuclear we haven’t built?  Solar which is so small it can’t be seen?  Hydropower which is in decline because it can’t be built?  Wind?  I can’t see wind outside, and I also can barely see it on the chart.

Looks like the Green Energy Plan is free of charge.

Anyone, and I mean anyone who is not realizing that the Leftist energy pipe dream won’t lead to the greatest suffering that mankind has ever seen, even more than anything Global Warming® could ever cause, even more than both of the World Wars, combined, is deluded.

We need more innovation in energy, and we need it now, because the exponentials in energy use and population require investment to keep ahead of the game.  Exponentials are funny that way, you have to be like Alice’s Red Queen and run faster and faster just to stay in place.

The Leftists that want to bring it all down?  They deserve to be put into a Push Ball filled with Alec Baldwin’s DNA-soaked yolk.

The Biggest Shock: Energy

“Oil, Butt-Head. It’s oil. We’ve struck oil.” – Beavis and Butt-Head

I caught my bread moving to the music on the counter the other night.  I guess it was a bun dance.

We’re 30 months past the start of the ‘Rona outbreak.  Sure, it doesn’t seem like that long, but in many ways it seems so much longer, like being forced to watch Amy Schumer talk to Chuck Schumer about cheese.  What happened, due to the reaction to the ‘Rona, was one of the biggest supply shocks that the world has ever seen.

When the ripples of that shock moved from country to country, things broke down.  The world, at that point just before the pandemic was an amazingly efficient machine.  It was wonderful at taking oil and turning it into important things, like Pringles®, hairspray, and cell phone cases.

But, I said that the economy was efficient – that means that all of the parts were needed – there were few wasted factories, and, few wasted workers.  We lived in the greatest abundance that the world had ever seen.  This abundance was so deep that world hunger was a solved problem.  For the first time ever, there were more people in the world that were overweight than hungry.

This was a brief moment in history.  In medieval France, for instance, the peasants would spend all winter in bed in a semi-hibernation to conserve food.  I guess I just described me at 2:30pm on Thanksgiving, except I’m sleeping off food.

I guess the most popular Christmas song at mental hospitals is, Do You See What I See.

But back to Thanksgiving, what were they giving thanks for?

Having food.  Even now as the events still unfold in slow-motion, the loss of abundance is looming.  Shortages begin to stack up.  A friend tried to buy a pickup, but was told it would be at least six months for it to arrive.  He bought a different one.

The price increases we’ve seen are a symptom of that lack of abundance – we had shortages because we were finally paying the price for the efficiency of the system – we had shortages of everything except for cash.  The powers that be decided to try to paper over the economic problems by flooding the world with that cash, which made people feel better, temporarily, but then led to the shortages we’re still seeing.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine?  It’s an example of yet another stress to the systems of the world.  Food.  Fertilizer.  Oil.  And a big one as far as Europe is considered?  Natural gas.  The folks in Europe might need to re-learn how to huddle together for warmth during winter.

I’d tell you how to make an oil well, but it’s really boring.

Abundance came from that finely tuned system.  What many don’t realize is that abundance comes mainly from abundant energy.  That energy is used everywhere.  It’s powering my computer and your computer (or phone) and the car that took me to work and the harvester that brought up the corn to feed the cow that became a steak on my plate last weekend.

Oddly, the Left thinks that by pretending that a new, renewable power will spring into existence, that it really will.  That hasn’t happened, or if it did, the power grid certainly isn’t showing it.  Widespread blackouts weren’t a feature of my youth – they’re an annual occurrence now, since the system is now overtaxed.  It’s gone from resilient, with a capacity that is sufficient for nearly any situation, to one that is regularly broken.

There was a blackout in New York City.  People were stuck on escalators for four hours.

Our history of abundance is dependent entirely on our mastery of energy.  There are 7.97 billion people on Earth today.  My estimate, based on history, is that without the current intensity of energy use, the Earth could support somewhere between 250 million and 500 million people, tops.

Energy is the key for all of that.

Oil is prone to, well, run out.  Frakking has provided a very significant way to expand reserves, but conventional oil peaked back in 2016.  The oil time, “drill it and pump it” is declining.  Frakking can provide a respite, but even those resources are limited.

The choices that lead to a real future, though, are few.  Of actual technology that exists and provides sufficient energy to power a civilization, nuclear energy is key.  I’d love to suggest fusion power, but sadly, the only version of fusion that we have on Earth exists in very short duration, high-energy pulses, often designed for delivery by intercontinental missiles.

But fission does exist.  It’s expensive to produce new fission power plants, but they last for decades.  Are there downsides?  Certainly.  Nuclear waste isn’t great, but I hear it’s still better for your than corn syrup.  And residents near Chernobyl can count on one hand the seven reasons why a nuclear meltdown is a bad idea.

But I never trust people from Chernobyl.  They’re two-faced.

We actually may be struggling to return to abundance for decades, and I don’t think we’ve fallen nearly as far as we will.  The supply disruptions started by the ‘VID and continuing through the Ukrainian War will continue, and will swing farther and farther out of control.  This will put pressures on people and increase conflicts, both inside countries and between countries.

Those could be huge, massive wars.  But as long as I don’t have to listen to Amy Schumer talk to Chuck Schumer, about cheese, it’ll be alright.

E, S, G: The Leftist War Against The Economy

“You dirty double-crossing limey fink! Those damn diamonds are phonies!” – Diamonds are Forever

Copernicus wondered where the Sun went at night.  Then it dawned on him.

Let’s go on a thought experiment:

Pretend that, having conquered the colleges, having infiltrated the leadership of the military and being 95% of the members of most government agencies, and jetting from place to place on private planes, the Left wasn’t done.  No, there was still one goal remaining, and it wasn’t finally getting a date or being able to benchpress more than the bar.  Nope.  The remaining group which they hadn’t managed to completely own was all of corporate America.

But how would they do that?  I mean, the Left has a lot of money for taking over Portland, Oregon again and again, but that’s hardly a challenge nowadays.  What if the Left decided that they wanted to only invest in companies that shared their political leanings, and create some sort of bogus reason to make other people do it, too.

Enter ESG.

What does ESG stand for, Entitled, Stupid, and Gutless?  No, that’s Antifa®, silly.  ESG stands for the three criteria that the Left wants to use to decide if a country or business is sufficiently Leftist:  Environmental, Social, and Governance.  That seems, at first blush, to be relatively safe.  I mean, who wants a bad work environment?  And social, well, maybe that means good customer service.  And governance?  Maybe that’s how efficiently the company is run?

Nah.

I got into Harvard®.  You’d think they would have better security.

Not even close.  So, ESG, does it really mean?  I’ll quote from the fine folks at Harvard®:

  • The “E” captures energy efficiencies, carbon footprints, greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, biodiversity, climate change and pollution mitigation, waste management and water usage.
  • The “S” covers labor standards, wages and benefits, workplace and board diversity, racial justice, pay equity, human rights, talent management, community relations, privacy and data protection, health and safety, supply-chain management and other human capital and social justice issues.
  • The “G” covers the governing of the “E” and the “S” categories—corporate board composition and structure, strategic sustainability, oversight and compliance, executive compensation, political contributions and lobbying, and bribery and corruption.

Certainly, there is some Mom and Apple Pie-level stuff in there.  There has to be otherwise they couldn’t sell it.  It’s not like people look at a company and say, “Gosh, I wish Google® was even more corrupt with their search results” or “I wish Facebook™ had done more to dishonestly influence the election by censoring even more news unfavorable to the Left”.

In his spare time, Mark Zuckerberg likes to do normal human things, like drink water, consume calories, update circuitry.

Most of the ESG metric, however, is right out of the Left’s playbook.  The parts in bold above are things that, mostly, don’t have anything at all to do with actual profitability or performance of a company.  How can I tell this isn’t serious?  The Left isn’t going after the NFL®.  Even though I haven’t watched a game in years, they keep playing the games.  So let’s pretend the NFL© wanted to maximize its ESG score:

For instance, to improve its ESG, the NFL could focus on climate change by eliminating stadiums and all the wasteful use of gasoline to get to the games.  There’s more:

  • They could reduce their carbon footprint by using all natural, sustainable cotton fibers instead of wasteful nylon in their uniforms.
  • They could have opposing teams take electric cars to the games.
  • They could replace the plastic in their helmets with sustainably harvested weaved plant fiber.
  • They could replace the uniform types of grass on the field by using native plant species. Think of it – in Arizona you could have cactus and sand instead of lush lawns (that use far too much water!).

That takes care of the E!  What about the S?

  • Workforce diversity? The players on the team could easily be selected so that they strictly follow the demographics of the United States, including half of them being women, and some being senior citizens.  The handicapped would need to be represented as well, and not just as placekickers like they usually do.
  • Pay equity could be easily taken care of by having no member of the team or of the management staff make a time more than 20 times what the guy selling sodas in the stands makes each season, which would mean the CEO pay would be capped around $80,000. And if the starting QB got money from promotions, he’d have to split it equally with everyone in the organization.  Equity, after all.

Maybe he can put that on a slogan for the endzone?

That takes part of most of the S, especially after the owner is forced to give up 90% of his team ownership to random citizens of the world, so a Sri Lankan goat farmer can understand the joy of owning an NFL™ franchise.

What about governance?  Well, we could appoint people from every country in the world to the board of each NFL® team.  And no more cozying up to local, state, and federal officials for more tax bux.

So why don’t people talk about applying the ESG metric to the NFL™?  It’s simple.

People take football seriously.

All of the nonsense the Left loves to spout falls apart when it comes to one, simple business that everyone can understand and easily see the idiocy of the ESG metric.

Sri Lanka couldn’t believe it was riot season already!  They still had their “I support Ukraine” banners up.

In real life, Sri Lanka was ranked by ESG score.  They scored a 99 in Environmental, an 88 in Social, and a 47 in governance.  Sri Lanka is facing its “worst economic collapse in its modern history” according to some economist somewhere that you can Google® search for if you’re bored.  But its ESG was so good, right?  They only used natural fertilizer, and lowered their carbon footprint!  They also were starving and had to import lots of extra food.

It’s that same environmental rating that countries like the Netherlands and Canada are chasing when they are preparing to mandate that their farmers have fewer cows and use less fertilizer.  Both of those things, you see, hurt the carbon footprint and thus make the environmental score of the country go down.  If it causes people to go bankrupt to buy Cheetos® or starve, I guess ESG is a way to make sure that everyone in the world has the same chance to be hungry, poor, or exposed to social unrest as the least developed nation.  It could happen here.  Oops.  Forgot about Chicago.

It is happening here, at least with the ‘S’ part of ESG.  Looks like we’ll have Equity soon with countries that riot over it being (rolls dice) Tuesday soon enough.

When he fires an employee, he fires an employee.

Because of this fantastic success at the national level, Wall Street™ is pushing ESG at the corporate level.  The aptly-named Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock™ which currently controls over eight trillion dollars in investments is a big fan.  Eight trillion dollars?  That’s almost enough to buy two full tanks of gas in Biden’s America.  Think a man who controls eight trillion worth of cash has some pull?

The aptly-named Larry Fink certainly does.  Individual shareholders don’t vote, so the aptly-named Larry Fink’s eight trillion in stock probably controls two or three times that level of shareholder votes.  Alone.  The actual ESG rating process is so murky and subject to manipulation that the ESG for a company can be as fraudulent as Joe Biden’s hair plugs.

So, yeah, the Left has constantly used corporate America for funding, and now they’ve figured out a way to make business support whatever crazy policy that the Left wants to use to turn the United States into the next version of Sri Lanka.

Thankfully, he planted a tree to offset his carbon emissions.

The aptly-named Larry Fink has a private jet, and houses everywhere, and burns more carbon in a week than most people will burn in a lifetime.  Won’t you please reduce your carbon footprint so he can continue to do this?  I mean, it would up your personal ESG score . . . .

Economics In 2022, A Picture Book

“Stay classy, San Diego!” – Anchorman

I think the Chairman of the Federal Reserve® is required by law to drive a Fiat®.

Recently, part of the revolution has been televised . . . the Dutch government has decided that farming is evil because it keeps people from eating bugs and living in the pods:

Of course, the Dutch have commies there, too:

But who thinks hunger is good, besides the commies at Antifa?  Oh, the United Nations:

Well, we know the UN never comes up with their own ideas, they’re too busy with waste and corruption.  So where did this idea come from?

Oh, yeah, the World Economic Forum.

Thankfully, they’re not at all evil, right?

Karl nods approvingly:

But the World Economic Forum® has plans to help, right?  How it started for Sri Lanka:

How it’s going, I mean they’ve had four years to implement The Plan:

But they’ll help Europe, right?

How it might end:

But the United States is not immune from economic illiteracy:

I’m sure this won’t put 40 million people on edge:

But Joe Biden is coming to the aid of the American people:

And Kamala is planning on how to leave Kabul Washington.

While all of this goes on, there are differing views on the economy:

At least Amazon® will help us:

But in the end, maybe we will come to an ethical conclusion:

Stay classy, America!

Copper, Bikini Economics, And An Early Warning

“My hemoglobin is based on copper, not iron.” – Star Trek, TOS

Why didn’t they let the clown make iron?  He smelt funny.

The current economic mess we’re in has often been discussed by economists.  Let’s look at the word economist so we can understand what that word really means.  Eco comes from the Greek “echo” meaning repeating sound and the Serbo-Croatian word “myst” meaning where gorillas hang out, therefore it means a bunch of gorillas repeating the same thing back and forth to each other on PBS® until it’s time for bacon-wrapped shrimp and cocktails at the faculty lounge.

Likewise, the economy has been hit by what the “economists” call an exogenous shock.

Okay, what’s exogenous?  I could give another silly definition involving the X-Men® and confused gender identity, but exogenous really means coming from outside.  In this case, it’s the current mess in Ukraine, and, most particularly, the sanctions that were put in place.

Typically, I’ve noticed that when people want to punish someone, the idea would be to pick something that would be negative for that person.  But, once again, Biden has managed to play Brer Fox to and thrown Brer Rabbit straight into the briar patch – Russian income is up compared to previously.  Normally when you punish someone, bad things happen to them.

Oops.

I could probably round up a group of drunken fraternity juniors at any college that still taught stuff (sorry Harvard®, sit down) what could over a round of beer pong come up with better sanctions than Biden and his staff threw together.  And at the worst case, they’d come up with sanctions that were silly yet didn’t hurt the United States.  I mean, Putin doesn’t really have hair, so we’ll have to table Chet’s idea to give him a swirlie.  Besides, Chet is passed out now and Brad has a Sharpie® out.

What do you call someone kicked out of a frat?  A has-bro.

It started predictably enough – the energy sanctions have already caused a fill-up event to cost so much that it gives the Lefties goosebumps.  This is wonderful in their eyes.  Why?  It causes less use of pesky gasoline and electricity.  Their ultimate goal is to create an economy that produces no carbon dioxide at all, being run entirely by $80,000 electric vehicles to take Leftists from the Starbucks® to their Pilates lessons.

How far are they willing to go?  The Dutch have implemented a plan that requires their farmers to reduce their number of cattle by 30% by 2030.  So, less of whatever the Dutch make out of milk.  I wonder if they’ll take the same stance with gasoline?  If so, how will Vincent’s Van Gogh?

Vincent’s Van won’t Gogh.  And since the economy can’t work on good climate intentions something will have to break.

Vincent did some karaoke – he liked to sing blues.  One Bourbon, One Scotch, and One Ear.

Something to break?  Let’s talk about the price of copper.

Copper is a very good conductor of electricity.  It’s also a metal that is in demand when an economy is growing.  Why?  Copper goes in wire for houses – 43% of copper is used in building and construction.  Copper goes in computers – 20% is used in electronics.  Add in another 20% for cars and such – and that takes us over 80%.  I’d bore you with more facts about copper, but it makes me break out in hives – I guess I have a metallurgy.

I went to Steve Jobs’ funeral, just to ask this:  “Who is thinking outside the box now, Steve?”

Regardless, let’s look at what happens to the price of copper when the economy is overheating – in 2006, you can see the price of copper (from Macrotrends, LINK) shot up.  Interest rates were low, and houses were being built on every flat piece of ground from San Diego to Orlando.

That was the result of an economy that was overheated.  Copper popped up in price, and then collapsed.

Copper does that – and it leads.  When interest rates were low and anyone who could fog a mirror could get a loan, then copper prices shot up back in 2006.  As long as the boom held out, copper held out.  When the market for houses finally collapsed, so did the price of copper.

So, that’s the history.

What about 2022?

It started with a spike.  Why?  Low interest rates and easy money made it so the housing market, even in sleepy little Modern Mayberry was hot.  When I bought my house, there were houses that had been on the market for over 300 days.  Three months ago, a house hit the market on Friday and was gone by Monday.

Now, I’m thinking it won’t be nearly so easy to sell in a small market.  And copper indicates that it’s likely that construction demand is dropping.  Not only that, but China, typically a big market for copper, cut its demand for scrap copper in the past week by 47% (according to the one source in broken English I could find).  So, it’s no big surprise that copper prices are down over 20% since March.

So, I’m not sure Biden can sanction Russia any harder unless he comes to our houses individually, breaks our windows, impregnates our dogs, and sticks his thumb in the butter in the fridge.

Oh, crap.  You don’t think I gave him ideas, do you?

Wherein I Use Greek Mythology To Show How Screwed We Are

“Would Homer cut away from Odysseus’s journey just as he was being enticed by the siren’s song?” – BoJack Horseman

My lack of knowledge of Greek mythology is often my Achilles’ Elbow.

We’ve reached the Scylla and Charybdis stage of our economy.

Scylla was, in Greek mythology, a six-headed monster that was probably less scary than the average half-dozen Congresscritters, and certainly less dangerous.

Charybdis was a whirlpool that sucked inside everything that got close to it three times a day, so it was pretty much exactly like Kamala Harris.

The idea is that if you’re between Scylla and Charybdis, life is on the edge because there are dangers on either side.  When Odysseus tried to sneak between the two, he lost six crewmembers, one to each head of Scylla.  Thankfully they didn’t go too close to Charybdis, since Kamala has a mean-looking canker sore, and some gifts last forever.

Trying to thread the fine line between Scylla and Charybdis:  that’s where our economy is now.

Could it be that the Odyssey is just a made-up excuse by a husband as to why he’s ten years late?

As inflation rages through the system, every minute that we have an interest rate well below the rate of inflation, inflation is being fed.  To quote Joe Biden from January 24, 2022, “It’s a great asset – more inflation.  What a stupid son of a bitch.”  You can tell he’s excited to Build Back Better!

Oddly, it’s not inflation in everything.  Some items are starting to deflate now.  Houses, for instance.  The price of a house is tied to the interest rate – the more interest wrapped into a monthly payment, the fewer the number of buyers that can afford or qualify for a loan.  And in Biden’s America® people have to qualify for more important things, like a Quarter Pounder™ or a tank of gas.

But back to home loans:  fewer people qualify?  Less demand.  Less demand?  Lower home prices.

When we moved to Modern Mayberry in the middle of the Great Recession, some houses had been on the market for longer than 350 days.  These were decent houses, but there just wasn’t any demand.  Recently, as people began to take my advice and flee the cities, houses disappeared off the market in days here in Modern Mayberry.  With all the city folk moving in, at least I know what a hipster weighs:  an Instagram®.

One hipster I knew poured water from an ice tray into his beverage.  He liked ice before it was cool.

Now?  Interest rates for mortgages are going up, so demand for houses will be going down.  Eventually, the market for houses will go back to where it was when I got here.  That’s okay, I never expected to walk away from Stately Wilder Mansion with a single dime of profit.  For me, a house is where I live, not an investment.

So, interest rates up, housing prices down.  Simple.

Also, interest rates up, stock prices down.  For the last decade, stocks have been just about the only game for people who were trying to keep up with inflation.  This was a continual pressure upwards on stocks.  Now as interest rates go up, there are other options.

Traditionally, there was (this was something I read in an article a long time ago) a formula showing the value of a stock in relation to the interest rate:  Maximum P/E=20-Prime Rate.  That meant, with an interest rate of 0%, a stock was at fair value with a Price to Earnings ratio of 20.  Likewise, if the interest rate was 10%, the fair market P/E would be about 10.

Obviously, it’s such a one-dimensional analysis that it was made back when “digital computing” meant counting on your fingers.  There’s no way I’d suggest anyone use it to pick stocks (nor would I suggest taking the advice of an Internet humorist on any investment advice no matter how witty, charming, and handsome he might be), but it does show how the relationship between interest rates and stock prices and earnings was thought about once upon a time.  But it summarizes the same idea – interest rates up, stocks down.

I bought some speakers.  At least that was a sound investment.

Heck, it even led me to a never-fail way to manipulate individual stocks:  if I buy a stock, it goes down.

There are other impacts, too.  For instance, it makes debt harder to pay back for people around the planet.  If Egypt owes money to ChaseAmericanFargo™ Bank and the interest rate is variable, that means that Egypt will have to start selling items to pay back New York, or London, or Beijing.  Heck, the British would already have the Pyramids, but they wouldn’t fit in the British Museum

More money to the banking centers?  Less money for chow for the Egyptians.  We saw this exact scenario play out in the Arab Spring in 2012.  Expensive stuff caused people to go hungry and then hungry people with no hope do what they always do when they can’t watch Netflix™ and buy Twinkies©.

They swap out the government.  The new boss looks a lot like the old boss in Egypt, and it’s exactly the same boss as it was in Syria.  Some things don’t change.  If it’s bad enough, it also craters the economies in South America and, even Canada might have its assets frozen.  Or, more frozen.

How did Kamala get her cold sores?  She dated Herpules.

But when the interest rates go up, it’s not just the government in Egypt that gets squeezed.  The current debt in the United States is $30.5 trillion.  The total US debt, including personal debt, student loans, credit cards, and I.O.U.s to me from that one guy that owes me $20 is about $91 trillion.  (All numbers from usdebtclock.org)

When the interest rates go up, the payments on interest go up.  That means less money available for everything else.  When last I looked, the mandatory payments the Federal government were as much as or more than the amount of money that they took in.  That means that printing more money is now the only way the system can work.  It’s like having a tobacco cessation class with a two-cigar minimum.

That leads to the difficult bit – the hall of mirrors.  If we don’t raise interest rates, and raise them quickly and raise them high enough, inflation will devastate the economy.  If we do raise them, interest payments will freeze the economy and dry up all the PEZ®, pantyhose, and elephant rides the government buys daily.  We are in a classic trap, but it is a trap entirely devised by the Fed® and the politicians working long-term problems on short-term incentives.

By attempting to push back the moment of financial reckoning by any means possible, we’ve created a failure that is much, much larger.  If we would have let financial companies fail in 2000 and 2008, and fixed the structural problems with Medicare, perhaps, just perhaps we wouldn’t be here today.

But we are.

How bad are things?

Again, people have been trying to gauge when things in the stock market are out of whack – Gregory Mannarino came up with a market risk index that he called the Mannarino Market Risk Index, which was modified by Nobody Special Finance into the Modified Mannarino Market Risk Index.  You can watch the video on what makes it up here (LINK).  It’s only twelve minutes, and it’s pretty simple.  The MMMRI is simple, but it’s still quite a bit more sophisticated than the 20=P/E-Interest rate formula from back in the Stone Age.  The summary is of selected past MMMRIs is:

  • Black Monday (1987),               MMMRI 234
  • Dotcom Bubble Pop (2000),   MMMRI 208
  • Great Recession (2008),           MMMRI 169

Right now?

You can find tracking information on MMMRI here (LINK) on Mannarino’s website.

Yup.  MMMRI is screaming loudly that the stock market is really, really messed up.  But you knew that.  Things are broken, and they’re breaking faster as things go downhill.  So, whatever you do, don’t buy canned goods and storage food and precious metals and PEZ® and ammo.  Nope.

I’m sure that the team of Biden and Harris along with Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary, (who had no idea that inflation was even a problem) or Jennifer Granholm, Energy Secretary, (who said that high gas prices are “a very compelling case” to buy an electric car) will be here to help us charter a safe course between Scylla and Charybdis.

Oh, wait, Biden and Harris are Scylla and Charybdis.

Our Economy: At The Jagged Edge

“Because of the metric system?” – Pulp Fiction

I saw a mountain covered in cows.  “Huh, that must be Mt. Heiferest.”

Systems work within certain limits.  Let’s take . . . the Earth.  The Earth is absolutely filled with life.  It’s nearly everywhere, and in abundance, unless a particular bit of life has secrets about the Clintons.  Let’s just look at a single variable of the system that supports life:  temperature.

All things being equal, if the Earth was as hot as Venus is, the zone where life could exist (if it was based on the need for water, of course) would be pretty small.  Likewise, Mars would have a smaller envelope – it’s too cold – and water would be frozen most of the time.  Sure, life is technically possible in both locations, but it will never thrive like it has for a huge chunk of the Earth’s history.

And that’s just one variable impacting a complex system.

There are many ways to configure an economy.  Most of the ones that work really well are decentralized for most things.  No one tells a farmer in Nebraska what or when to plant.  The farmer chooses, based on what he thinks he can sell.  No one tells PEZ® to make a Yosemite Sam™ PEZ© dispenser.  But why wouldn’t they make a Yosemite Sam® PEZ® dispenser?  Duh.

A day on Venus lasts 5,832.6 hours, so it’s just like a Monday on Earth with Biden in the White House.

Most of the time, this system is pretty closely coupled.  The world doesn’t have years of surplus of, say, food just sitting around – with billions of people, I know someone would eat the Ding Dongs® and Pop Tarts™ first and then there wouldn’t be any for me.  I mean, it certainly looks like Nic Cage could make an infinite amount of movies since the word, “no” isn’t in his vocabulary, but even he has limits to his Nic Cage-ness.

I think we’re close to the limits of the system that’s given us prosperity as we know it.  Yup, that’s a sobering thought.  Here are a few data points:

This one hit me fairly hard (from Vox Day’s place – there’s more at the LINK):

I own a small trucking company, and this is what the fuel crisis is doing to our country… Today I filled up my truck to deliver products that help keep our country fed. When I filled up my truck, it cost me $1,149.50. This is ONE truck, for ONE day of fuel. I own three. So for one day of operation, it’s costing me $3,448.50. (Yes, we use a full tank of fuel every single day, sometimes more than 1 tank per day).

My trucks generally run 5-6 days a week, so we’ll just estimate on the low side and say five. That’s $17,242.50. Last week was over $20k for ONE week, that I have to pay out of my pocket to try and keep not only my children fed, but those of my employees, and our country.

Mark my words, we are on a downhill slide to the worst recession our country has ever seen. Trucking companies are going under left and right. (Literally hundreds weekly.) If you’re not aware, what you’re wearing, what you’re eating, what you’re living in, what you’re driving, what you’re reading this on, was delivered by a truck.

That’s sobering.  All the beer comes on trucks, so it could be literally sobering.

We might need USB if the USA fails.

What else have we seen?

  • Baby Formula Shortages
  • Rising Violence, Well, Everywhere
  • Short Tempers
  • Shortages of Basic Repair Parts For Vehicles

These have some consequences.  Big ones.

People are pulling back on frills, in a hurry.  A very good restaurant in Modern Mayberry just shut down.  Forever.  The owners threw in the towel.  Rising prices led to fewer customers . . . customers feeling pinched can always cook their own food at home as a quick way to save a few bucks.  I opened my browser (which thinks I live hundreds of miles away from Modern Mayberry) and saw the same exact story a few hundred miles away on the same day our local hangout closed – another, distant, beloved local restaurant shutting down in a town I’ve never been to.

The Mrs. has a phobia so she stacks the plates in the cabinet by the year we bought them.  It’s a very rare dish order.

Why are dining customers feeling the pinch?  Let’s just talk a single variable:  fuel.  By my calculations, the rising cost of fuel is draining $2.3 billion dollars a day, every day from the economy.  That’s not quite a trillion dollars a year, but fuel is priced into everything.  Divide the rough annual cost of just the increase and I came up with almost $2,800.  Per person.  Multiplied by a family of four, and that’s about $11,000 a year per family.  If the average family makes $69,000 a year, just the increase in fuel prices is about 16% of their annual income.  Sure, lots of that isn’t direct to the family, but it gets priced into every single thing they buy.

That’s stark, especially because it’s only a single variable.  Increased interest rates will be hitting soon, along with all of the financial pressures that will bring.  And, of course, there will be more things as this crisis cascades.

I took a college elective on pollen creation.  I got a B.

Here’s another data point.  I pulled into McDonald’s® and asked for a McSausage McMuffin with McEgg®.  Don’t judge me!  They’re tasty!

“Sorry, we’re all out.  We do have sausage biscuits left.”

“Okay.  I’ll take one.”  Not my favorite, but, whatever.

“Okay, that’ll be $6.50.”  It was just as they put up their lunch menu, so I hadn’t seen the price.

Six fifty?  For a sausage patty, some not great scrambled eggs, a slice of cheese, and a biscuit?  And it wasn’t what I wanted in the first place?

I noped out of that.  First time I’ve canceled a drive-through order that I can recall, but I didn’t need the sandwich $6.50 worth.  I drove out of the line and off on my way.  Good thing it wasn’t an Amish McDonald’s® – I hear they don’t have outlets.

I hate to think about what happens when Joe runs out of his “good” ideas.

Our economic systems are certainly out of balance.  Badly.  We’re at the edge of a cliff, and I have the feeling that things will soon be changing, and quickly.  Be prepared for a change in temperature.