Volcano – Page 2 – Wilder, Wealthy, and Wise

Health, Sexy Hot Water Heaters, and Elven Cultural Appropriation

“Gentlemen, as you all know, a reservoir is composed of water. Except the part that holds the water. Which is made of concrete.” – Green Acres

You should be ashamed! (Found on Pinterest)

“You understand that it’s healthier to take cold showers. The data is clear.”

The Mrs.: “I don’t care.”

“Cold showers stimulate weight loss, increase alertness, and improve your immune system.”

The Mrs.: “I don’t care. And I don’t like it that you’re implying that I’m a fat, diseased, dullard.”

“But, cold showers lower stress and ease depression?”

The Mrs.: “No. You can’t talk yourself out of buying a water heater. We’re getting one today.”

The old hot water heater had stopped being automatically functional. We discovered that Christmas morning. And by “we” I mean The Mrs.

“Got bad news. I think the water heater is out. Shower was cool, like maybe the heater turned off 12 hours ago.” My shower was cold, too. Not “glacier on Everest” cold, more like, “implying that my wife is a fat, diseased, dullard” cold.

The heater would still light, but it would go out after about 20 or 30 minutes. And as much as I don’t respect Pugsley’s time, it seemed a bit much to ask Pugsley to go and relight the burner every 20 minutes for the next six years. Unless I chained Pugsley in the mechanical room, you know, for his own convenience.

But the heater going out was probably a faulty thermocouple. A thermocouple is a magical device made of elves that pokes the fire dragon inside of the water heater to let him know that the pilot light is still going so the dragon doesn’t spew unignited natural gas fire breath inside the house and make it go all Mount Doom. That appears to bother Allstate®, since my policy specifically excludes damage due to any Hobbit-related conditions. Strict, but I understand the business reasons for it.

Wait, this is a picture of Pugsley’s room . . .

I could tell my dragon-poking-fire-elf (thermocouple) had failed because he was singed, and his hands shook noticeably as he drank my scotch. He was used up. A thermocouple replacement is about $18. I think they’re that cheap because they’re made out of Chinese elves nowadays. The water heater is 14 years old, and, like a child, they have to be replaced at around that age. Since the previous owner installed it without a pan underneath it, when it failed we’d first notice when it started soaking everything in the house like a poodle with a bladder condition. Oh, sure I could put a pan under this one, but by that point I’d have to unhook it and do 90% of the work of replacing it. And then I’d have to buy a new one next year.

If we don’t allow illegal alien elves, who will power our iPhones?

So I replaced it. There was yelling, there was cursing, and then we finally got to the store to buy one.

I wasn’t expecting a cold shower on Christmas, I wasn’t expecting to buy a new water heater. But a lesson in health and life is: If you can’t control the situation, embrace it. So, I gave the water heater a big embrace as The Boy lifted it over the edge of the drip pan.

Life is a series of unplanned events. I once read a quote by Yogi Berra, “If you don’t know where you are going, you’ll end up someplace else.” And life is very much like that – nobody expects a broken water heater on Christmas. Since I saw the Heating and Air Conditioning Repair van outside a neighbor’s house yesterday, I’m betting they didn’t expect to wake up at 40°F in their house this morning. Guess they have elf problems, too. It’s a stereotype that elves don’t want to work after Christmas, but, really, let’s face the fact – the stereotype exists for a reason.

The new water heater is installed. And heating water. Don’t call it a “hot water heater”, because if the water was hot, why would I need to heat it? I’ll admit I did call one model a hot water heater while shopping. But in that case, it was a really sexy water heater. Just check out the nameplate:

I’m too sexy for my heater, too sexy for my heater, too sexy per square meter!

Sadly my family is now unhealthier, stuck as it is without the benefits of cold showers – the increased alertness, lower stress and depression. We are stuck with perfectly warm water for bathing, showering, and cooling down singed elves.

What should you do in an economic downturn? Depends . . .

“Out these windows, we will view the collapse of financial history. One step closer to economic equilibrium.” – Fight Club

Since 1940, the United States has had 12 recessions, as recorded by the Fed. The graph is below.

fed unemployment

Want to start a small business? Just buy a big one before a recession, and wait! Saves a lot of hassle! The gray bars are recessions.

Why do we have recessions?

There have been several economists who have tried to explain this. One of the earlier explanations was from Ludwig Von Mises. Von Mises, being Austrian, was the founder of what is known as the “Austrian” school of economics. Austrian economists are the mortal enemy of Keynesian economists (named after John Maynard Von Keynes, it being a new rule that every economist must now have “Von” in their middle name). Often the Austrians and Keynesians will have gang fights over who has better economic theory, but they’re economists, so the gang fights look like slap fights between anemic three-year-old girls.

Von Mises felt that recessions were caused by a debt cycle. At a time (like today) you can borrow massive amounts of money at very low interest rates. My current house is mortgaged at 4% or so, but my first house was financed at a rate just over 9%, and that was a bargain at the time. And my current savings account pays interest in dust and, on a good year, in little balls of dryer lint.

voneconomics

Little known fact: Ludwig Von Mises (Miller) was Superbowl® 50 MVP!

This condition (like we’re in today) encourages investment, and discourages savings. An example:

The little town I’m in has one hotel that was built since Bill Clinton was president. There are a collection of at least two other (nice) hotels around town. And, there are about three hotels that were constructed when the building code required use of lead pipes, lead paint, and asbestos carpet. So, there are hotels for moderate budgets (like $90 a night) all the way down to hotels that take payment in squirrel pelts (tanned only – no raw pelts). No five star hotels, but, really, this town isn’t one you’d come to visit as a tourist.

But somebody decided we needed another hotel. And they built one – a brand new, brand name hotel in a town that already had enough rooms. Why?

Interest rates are low, so the hotel company is just looking for places to spend money. If they can borrow it at 5%, they don’t have to make too much money for the investment to pay off.

In an environment with low interest rates and large amounts of money available, companies will borrow money to do almost anything – projects that are crappy at 10% interest look great at a 5% cost of capital. So they borrow first to do the “great” projects and, once those are done, companies then borrow to do the so-so projects.

What happens when the interest rate goes up? Or the business ideas that are presented are so silly (strawberry picker making $15,000 a year buys $720,000 California house – LINK) that when they make the papers they become legendary. Another way to tell is when a Wells Fargo® bank has a Starbucks© inside it’s lobby – and the Starbucks has a Wells Fargo™ bankette inside. With a tiny Starbucks©. You can tell that maybe, just maybe, the economy is nearing peak stupid. (This happened in Houston – there was a Starbucks™ in the mall in front of the Target©. The Target® had a Starbucks™ just inside the door. So did the Wells Fargo© bank. Next to the Target™.)

As we watched the housing market collapse, as well as the financial shenanigans machine industry that supported it, my lawyer friend said to me . . . “Well, when you’re at the beach and the tide goes, out, you see who wasn’t wearing any clothing.” The length of time of artificially low interest rates and the greater the amount of “silly” investment is like a drunk’s binge – the longer it lasts the bigger the hangover.

Examples of irrational thought:

The price of a house never goes down – it’ll go up forever. And this one is in a great location, right next to the high paying jobs at the chemical plant.
The price of a stock never goes down – stocks will go up forever. And that new car will never replace horses! Silly!
Comics are totally the best investment anyone could ever make. This issue of Teen Manga 2000 will be worth millions!
“It’s different this time.”
“Stocks have reached a new permanent high plateau.”
“This company, Montgomery Ward Toys ‘r’ Us Sears Tesla will last forever . . . .

And then, something happens. Oh, sure, it looks like . . . 9/11. If the economy were healthy and operating on all cylinders, 9/11 wouldn’t have led to a recession. The reason for the recession isn’t what’s in the papers – the economy was sick from too much bourbon. It was going to throw up anyway.

Make no mistake – the United States is an economic engine. 2% growth is middling, but a 2% contraction is catastrophe. Why?

All of the jobs are created at the margin, at that 1% or 2% of growth. A small contraction ripples through the economy – now people are losing jobs. A 2% contraction is really a 3% or 4% contraction. That can set off a chain reaction (like during the Great Depression) – those people aren’t consuming, so the next group of people lose their jobs/businesses. And so on.

Also, in the past, inflation was a thing that happened. Now we pretend it doesn’t, even as food goes from a $5 lunch to a $10 lunch, minimum.

Eventually, however, the Central Bank (in the case of the United States) can hold back the interest rates no longer – it has to raise them or risk the currency (dollar) becoming worthless. Interest rates rise.

Formerly profitable projects and businesses are no longer profitable at the new rate. They get cancelled, or in some cases abandoned during construction. Or the entire business fails. The average business lasts . . . 10 years, regardless of age. Big ones, small ones, they get eaten or fail. It’s part of that regrowth that’s actually nice about capitalism. Wouldn’t it be nice if the DMV had to compete to get you to come in and get license plates or a new driver’s license?

So how should you behave in an economic contraction?

First, the pitfalls: being right early is EXACTLY the same as being totally wrong. In 1994 I saw that Marvel® had a great group of characters, and if they could only exploit them, they’d have a franchise that was worth millions. So, I placed a big bet – $2000 – on Marvel™ Entertainment stock. Which promptly went bankrupt, making my investment worth a handful of magic beans. Sigh. Again, being right early is exactly the same as being wrong.

Second: Getting out early (which I’ve done a time or two or almost always) has proven to be a killer. Getting out while the market is still going up has cost me a lot of gains. Not that I’m complaining – the world has been awesome for me, but I really wish I could afford a private island with a heliport inside and extinct volcano. I’ll have to buy an island without a volcano. Again. Sigh. Is an extinct volcano too much to ask?

So, what do you do when faced with an economic downturn? I’ve developed a helpful graphic:

Size of Downturn	Best Investment	Amount of Panic	Beware of:	Move to:
1-3%	Stay the course – keep investing every month.	Bernie Sanders waves his hands and screams for more aid.	Falling stocks.	A nice property you bought at a bargain.
Less than 5%	Whiskey. AAA Bonds of solid countries, like Switzerland. Gold.	Bernie Sanders takes his hand out of his pockets and puts them in yours.	Communist revolution. Oh, wait, they already got California.	Montana or Idaho.
More than 10%	Ammunition. Even more whiskey.	Bernie Sanders forms a cannibal paramilitary organization.	Better Call Saul being cancelled.	Your island with a helipad in an extinct volcano.

The real answer is that response to a downturn depends on:

How much money you have. If you have plenty, you’ll be fine.

How long the downturn lasts. If a year or two, you’ll figure it out. If a decade or more? Yikes! (Unless you have lots of money.)

How severe the downturn is. See above. The “More than 10%” is not really all that much of a joke.

How much your job is impacted. This you can figure out now. If your company could do fine without you, you don’t figure into any strategic initiatives, and you make a lot of money? I hope you saved some, because you and dozens of people that look just like you will be looking for a job soon enough.

Ma Wilder’s family, the McWilders, took in a batch of neighbor kids during the Great Depression and helped to raise them. Great Grandpap McWilder was wistfully employed on the railroad and operating a boarding house. Plus he ran a gambling house (I think) that sold illicit whiskey. He did what he had to do to get by during the Depression.

Great Grandfather Wilder ran a bank that did fine during the Depression. Never had to hustle, worked banker’s hours. Depression? Not for him.

So, be like Von Mises and Great Grandfather Wilder! Blitz that recession!

Climate Change, Solar Output, Ice Ages, The Planet Vulcan, And Old Guys With Beards

“That’s the human body raising its core temperature to kill the virus. Planet Earth works the same way. Global warming is the fever. Mankind is the virus. We’re making our planet sick. A cull is our only hope.” – Kingsman: The Secret Service

Pugsley and sand. Yup. Hot day. Probably the influence of planet Vulcan!

The calculations proved it. The planet Mercury’s orbit wasn’t quite right. It was really, really close. Really close. But not quite. How close? If my calculations are right, Mercury was 28 miles from where it should have been. Given its orbital velocity, that was one second. One second in 88 days. And this error was found in 1843. According to the accepted physics theories, this was proof of . . . another planet!

Samuel Schwabe: Though not commonly known, all astronomers in the 1840’s were also expected to play linebacker at a moment’s notice, hence, Schawbe appearing in full shoulderpads.

This was just the sort of proof that German astronomer Samuel Schwabe was waiting for. In the previous 17 years, Schwabe had dutifully recorded the sunspots on every clear day. He wanted to be able to pick out a new planet that people believed was inside the orbit of Mercury. Heck, they were so sure it was there they even gave it a name after the god of fire – Vulcan.

Not this kind of Vulcan, silly.

But Schwabe never lived long enough to see the discovery of Vulcan (although it was reliably spotted several times in the late 1800’s) because it doesn’t exist. But Schwabe did notice (for the first time) that the number of sunspots varied over time. After 17 years, he predicted that the Solar Cycle was about 10 years in length. He was close – but it’s closer to 11. This discovery was picked up by Swiss astronomer Rudolf Wolff (what a cool name, right?)

Rudolf Wolff: Is it just me, or does he have the beard and hair of an NFL assistant coach?

Wolff began counting sunspots as well, but also gathered information on sunspot activity from all over Europe, as far back as he could – 1610. Wolf also looked at the data and determined that Sunspots impacted Earth’s own magnetic field. Wolff’s work validated Schwabe’s theory, and Schwabe was honored with the Royal Astronomical Society’s Gold Medal, the same one that Einstein and Sir Fred Hoyle (LINK) would later win (I’ve got two in my closet somewhere, I think).

CC-SA:3.0 – Robert Rohde

So, a dude named Gustav Spörer discovered a period nearly zero sunspot activity – naturally, they named it the Maunder Minimum after the NEXT people to talk about it, Edward and Annie Maunder.

Edward and Annie aren’t that interesting, but the Maunder Minimum was – especially since we discovered other things . . . like the impact the great thermonuclear reactor in the sky has on temperature. High sunspot activity correlates to higher solar output. I wish it correlated to me having more hair.

CC-SA:3.0 – Robert Rohde

Which makes sense if you look at other data, like this from the IPCC’s first report:

Clearly, it was colder when there were fewer sunspots. Is that enough? No, there are some pretty other significant adders to the climate picture (though none are larger than the input from the Sun). Other things that really matter?

Well, CO₂ has been increasing – that’s for certain. And, CO₂ is a greenhouse gas. That’s for certain, too, otherwise the Earth would be too cold for life.

And as the temperature goes up, (maybe due to, say, solar output?) then the ability of the oceans to store CO₂ goes down. Cool us off with, say, a new Maunder Minimum? Yeah, then the CO₂ that can be stored in the oceans goes . . . up again.

And the CO₂ balance isn’t very far off from balanced.

But climate is determined by a batch of things – such as the current oscillations of the North Atlantic current, the amount of Bavarian-produced PEZ®, and our Sun’s output. The mere fact that no one can explain why we have ice ages should tell you that climate science is exceptionally incomplete – it’s as if physics couldn’t explain why STOP signs are octagons.

In the last 500,000,000 years of the existence of the Earth, the climate has been pretty steady.

CC by SA 3.0, Glen Fergus

And as I looked at the graph, I noticed two data points at the end, showing projections via a mathematical model. Certainly, they’re still in the realm of habitable. But are they real?

Probably not. Climate predictions have systematically overestimated the amount of global warming over time.

Via https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/

But when I hear people on NPR® talking about climate, what I hear is a lot of panic. It’s as if the world sits on a global climate hill, and the people of Earth, dressed in clown suits no doubt, are nudging it downslope, where it will go out of control and fry us all. But 500,000,000 years of climate history says that won’t happen. And the resources that are to be diverted? What could they do to make all of humanity wealthier with all of the money being spent on Global Warming?

Back to Vulcan.

It doesn’t exist. At all. The 28 mile gap? It’s real, but the reason it exists is because of the gravitational well that bends space time – Einstein hadn’t yet explained that mass bends space . . . and time. So given the mathematics and theories of the day, there had to be a planet. The observations that showed a planet? Maybe it was aliens or asteroids? Godzilla?

So, a strong consensus of astronomers had a belief in Vulcan. No other ideas made sense. So, one could say that there was a strong scientific consensus, but it was based on ignorance of physical facts. And, congratulations to the New England Patriots, Super Bowl LII champs by consensus! Point spread was 4.5 in favor of the Pats, so they won, right?

My concern remains that there is a group of people, with almost religious fervor, who feel mankind is the source of all that is wrong in the world, the source of all that is bad. The end point of their philosophy is a hatred of mankind. We are all that is wrong with the world. The irony is many of them are atheist, just replacing one religion and sin with another. And many see climate change as a method to extract political power (and money) from the world as a whole. I do recall that in the 1970’s that the next thing we’d see was . . . another ice age.

But we are not. All light, all love, all beauty has been either made by us or recognized by us. There’s no evidence a badger ever stopped and said, “Hey, beautiful sunset.” Nope. Without a human recognizing it, it doesn’t occur. Badgers have notoriously poor aesthetics.

And large amounts of the CO₂ went to feeding humanity. Who decides who will suffer, sacrifice, and die so we can spend money to be carbon neutral, when there is some evidence that solar output is declining and might lead to a climate that’s actually colder, longer term (LINK)? I’m sure somebody will be able to pin that on people.

You can see that solar output is declining. Perhaps it’s a conspiracy?

Besides, our robot overlords after the singularity (LINK) won’t be all that tied to temperature. They’ve got air conditioning . . . maybe solar powered?

Medieval French, Medieval Warm Period, Medieval Volcano, Medieval Weight Loss Pill

“This is Jenny. She and her family are having a picnic at the foot of a volcano. Oh no! The volcano has erupted! What do you do now Jenny? That’s right. Duck and cover. What do you do Jimmy? Duck and cover. Duck and cover!” – South Park

Thankfully the volcano killed off the giant ice crabs.

On July 17, 1315, Roul returned to his home from a hard day’s farming. He was very tired. He was dirty. He didn’t rank highly on the social scale – he was a serf, and could be bought and sold with the land he lived on. They didn’t call Roul a serf – his social class was called “villeins” in the local language of northern France.

I was very cold – especially strange since it was July. The sunsets, when Roul saw them, were more colorful than any he remembered in his life – he was 28 – but the weather was cold, and wet. At the best of times his wheat harvest might produce seven seeds for each one planted. Subtract saving one seed for next year’s planting, 10% of them for the Church, and 50% of them for the Lord whose land he farmed and taxes and out of each 14 seeds in a good year Roul could keep, at most, five for eating and trading. In 2015 the same field, plowed using modern machinery, planted with hybrid seeds, and with fertilizer levels closely monitored would bring over 30 seeds for each one planted.

But Roul could see none of that. His life was smaller. Not only was a tractor unimaginable, but the amount of real wealth it represented would be greater than the wealth of an entire province in 1300’s France. His income was small. But combined with the barter they got for his wife’s sewing, it was a good, but very tough life.

This year? This was the worst year he had ever seen. And the old graybeards in town said that they had never seen a year like this – ever.

And they hadn’t. The Medieval Warm Period ended around 1300A.D., with temperatures greater than today’s during much of that time, quite optimum for growing plants during the long growing seasons and the population of Europe had expanded. But the Warm Period ended.

But 1315 was even more special: Mount Tarawera erupted. Although Tarawera was almost exactly on the other side of the world from Roul in what would be named New Zealand by Dutch navigator Abel Tasman 320 some years later, its impact on his life was profound. The volcanic dust and ash filled the atmosphere and cooled the Earth for more than two years. The Great Famine followed. Over the next seven years at least 5% (and perhaps as many as 12%) of all northern Europeans died. The world for them contracted and became hungry, mean, and criminal. The Black Plague found easy purchase in the wasted land. The combined impacts of famine and disease caused Europe to experience a significant depopulation during the 1300s, which led to labor being more valuable, which led directly to the values that formed the Renaissance. The birth of modern culture was forged in famine and pestilence.

But we were talking about Roul.

In the bitter cold of winter of 1315 and 1316, Roul and his wife, Cateline resembled hibernating bears more than a farmer and wife in the prime of life. During the intense cold of the winters, they spent most of their time huddled under blankets on their straw bedding trying to do as little as possible to conserve every bit of energy – the harvest had been poor and food was in very short supply. Most days they got up to do the minimum of chores required, and ate very sparingly.

Roul and Cateline didn’t starve. It was a near thing. But the society they saw a decade later scarcely resembled the one that they had left behind in the spring of 1315.

So, how far have we come as a civilization? Right now hunger is still a world problem, but hunger is less prevalent now than at any time in recorded history. Ever. Obesity, however, is as bad as it has ever been, and been getting worse. Stupid Skittles®.

I’ll admit, some dead Roman was right when he said that a pleasure repeated too often becomes a punishment. But being fat is still way better than starving to death. Like a joke The Mrs. loves:

A guy was talking to his dog. “No more food for you, or you’ll get fat.”

The dog responds, “Fat? What’s that?”

The guy: “It’s when you eat and drink too much and sit on the couch and don’t exercise and gain a lot of weight.”

The dog: “Ohhhh, that sounds good. Let’s get fat.”

What people really want is to sit on their couch, eat chips, drink beer, play video games, and look like The Rock after a particularly challenging workout. And there are billions of dollars available to anyone who can make that happen. And people are working on it right now: The Exercise Pill.

They even found one that was awesome: GW501516. Sexy name. All the cool kids call it 516 (really). In the subjects that the scientists gave 516 to, they found that nearly immediately exercise endurance went up by double digit percentages. They lost weight without working out any more than usual.

A perfect pill! With 516 you could have it all. Endurance, an athletic bod, and lower weight. 516 even released the hormones and all the good stuff associated with strenuous exercise.

So, where can you get some?

Well, your doctor won’t prescribe it for you because all the test subjects came down with megasupereverything cancer. Whatever 516 did, it really did a number on the test subjects, giving them every cancer one can imagine.

Thankfully they were mice.

But people are taking 516 right now, body builders and dudes looking to lose weight while getting strong. Seems like you can buy the stuff, it’s just not approved, and it has been banned by multiple sports (I think there’s a Lance Armstrong joke in there, but I’ll skip it). So you can get it, but you’re not supposed to take it, just like animal antibiotics, which people do take, since they can skip going to a doctor and just get the stuff online.

Work hasn’t stopped on bringing 516 (and some other exercise pills) to market, but they’re hoping with 100% less cancer, and the New Yorker (LINK) has a pretty good article on it. I won’t spoil the ending. Okay, I will. We don’t have an exercise pill.

But . . . should we? I guess that, from a perspective of having people live healthier lives, I’ve got to say, yeah, we should. But the very discipline required to keep and maintain a weight, the hard work, the sacrifice, isn’t that part of what makes us stronger, so when life is tough, we know we have the internal strength to stand up to challenges?

Nah.

All that sounds like work.

They’ll have a pill for willpower and inner strength, won’t they?