But What If You’re Wrong?

“What if you’re wrong, Evil? What if Dandridge is a vampire and he thinks you know it? Would you walk down that alley then?” – Fright Night

MATH

How many vampires are good at math?  Can I count Dracula?

“Indeed, none but the Deity can tell what is good luck and what is bad before the returns are all in,” wrote Mark Twain.

Yet, so many people are certain that they can determine what good luck is with great certainty.  As I get older, like Twain, I’m not sure that I can tell good luck from bad on any given day.  So, I try to take it as it is.  Rain?  Good.  We needed rain.  Hot?  Well, the air conditioning works.  Snow?  Great – it will kill the insects.  A massive hail of arrows that blots out the Sun?  Excellent.  We can fight in the shade.

I came to this conclusion after one day when I looked backward at my life around the age of 32 – the things that I had hoped for – recognition, money, and a bountiful supply of PEZ® hadn’t made life better.  The things I had tried to avoid – a near zero bank account, 16+ hour days as a single dad with a job, and life without a spouse made me a better man and made me think about the relationships between virtue, money, and meaning.

The time of plenty hadn’t made me better, but the time where I spent six months raising kids by myself before I had a spare $150 to buy a used Fender® and an amp at a pawn shop had.  Huh?  How could that be, especially when I got cheated on the guitar – “no strings attached” had a different meaning in that pawn shop.

BEAR

I gave up and sold the guitar to a guy in town who doesn’t have any arms.  I asked how he was going to play it, and he said, “By ear.”

It was then I decided that getting everything I wanted would have been the worst possible thing for me.  Instead, getting a tougher life made me better.  I was in my 20s when I had that revelation, and it has stayed with me.  It also has led me to always ask myself:

What if I’m wrong?

Not wrong.  But really, really wrong?

In some sense, people might call this indecision, like I don’t know what I want.  I mean, indecision was when I couldn’t decide between churros and sopapillas for desert, which caught me off guard – no one expects Spanish Indecision.  But this is different.  I call this humility.  I might have a clear sense of what I want, but have no real idea what is good for me.  Call it the Twain Zone.

It leads to some interesting thought experiments – what if the exact opposite of what I’m expecting happens?

Historically, I can give numerous examples of surprises that “no one” was expecting – where nearly everyone was wrong.

  • The U.S.S.R. looked strong and invulnerable in 1985. Rocky IV and Red Dawn reflected the public mood that the Soviets just might win.  By 1987, cracks were showing, by 1989 areas were in open rebellion, and by 1991 the U.S.S.R. voted itself out of existence on December 26.  That’s a shame.  I heard that Soviet bread was so good that people would wait in line all day for a single piece.
  • Stock prices have reached “what looks like a permanently high plateau,” said Irving Fisher, Yale economist, on October 10, 1929. October 24, 1929 was Black Thursday, where the market lost 11% in a single day. Oops.  I will say that COVID-19 makes it feel like 1929 – the stock market is tanked and the bars are closed.
  • On August 9, 1974 Richard Nixon resigned, less than two years after crushing his opponent George McGovern 520-17 in the Electoral College, winning every state but Massachusetts, where the penalty for drunk driving is re-election to the Senate.

NIXON

Spoiler alert:  Nixon’s decorating crimes would not stand.  He resigned office and quit eating spaghetti on the same day – it’s all in the pasta now.

In a financial sense, I think everyone reading this post knows that something is horribly wrong with both the currency and the stock market.  The old line attributed to Gary Shilling rings true, however:  “The market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent.”  Just because you or I might have seen that real estate was overvalued in 2006, doesn’t mean that the market did.  Irrationality can persist longer than logic, especially when everyone says, “Real estate?  It never goes down.”

Okay, John, you’ve convinced me.  Now what?

Well, that’s up to you.  I can’t judge your situation unless you send me a few goats, some silver, and a throwout bearing for a 1973 GMC pickup.  But what I was hoping is that you’d look yourself and ask a few questions:

  • If you think that we’ll have unending prosperity and no shortages, what if you’re wrong?
  • If you think that the riots in (INSERT YOUR CITY HERE) won’t reach your neighborhood, what if you’re wrong?
  • If you think that things can’t get better than this mess we’re in, what if you’re wrong?
  • If you think that things can’t get worse than this mess we’re in, what if you’re wrong?
  • If you think that the stock market can’t go up, what if you’re wrong?

WENDYS

I was also wrong about my chiropractor.  I stand corrected.

The situation that the United States enjoyed from 1945 until recently was the most prosperous in (perhaps) the history of the world so far.  A good weather forecaster’s most accurate forecast is to say that tomorrow will be like today, obtuse (as in greater than 90 degrees).  Until it isn’t.  The hot spring day is followed up by the tornado – the winter storm strikes furiously from the north.

So, not knowing where the wind is coming from, I’m okay with it.  Hot today?  I’m fine.  Cold tomorrow?  Great.  Hurricanes?  Wonderful, let’s get to sea in our shrimp boat.

I guess the reason I’m so agreeable when the conditions of the world would indicate that I should be grumpy is that I’ve seen one thing again and again:  when I try to divine the future from my current situation, my track record is horrible, since the returns aren’t yet all in.

8BALL

Okay, I looked it up and the blue stuff is either water or alcohol.  Either way I wouldn’t drink it, since if it’s methanol, you won’t see what hit you.

So, evaluate where you are, ask yourself, “What if I’m wrong?” and live a life worth living.  I don’t get to choose all of the events in my life, but I certainly can choose how I react.

Unless I’m wrong about that.

Capitalism and Crisis

“Four-alarm fire in downtown Moscow clears way for glorious new tractor factory.  And, on lighter side of news, hundreds of capitalists soon to perish in shuttle disaster.” – Airplane II, The Sequel

COMDOG

I know how they feel.  When my alarm goes off late – I end up Russian all morning.

Capitalism is a great system for allocation of winners and losers in an economy.  It does this more or less automatically, because the transactions are voluntary on both sides.  If I want weasel snouts and have money, and you have weasel snouts and want money, as long as we can come to an agreement, we both win.  Nothing better than a warm weasel snout on a cold night.

Capitalism is good at creating rewards for those win-win transactions.  Because it’s good at that, capitalism is probably the best creator of abundance the world has ever known outside of Bernie Madoff.  Capitalism is also set up to be very compatible with those on the Right.

Transactions are based on free will and free exchange of goods, even transactions for things like natural gas.  Here in Modern Mayberry, if I don’t want natural gas, I can cut firewood and burn it to heat my home.  My insurance company would probably prefer me to get a fireplace first.

But natural gas is amazingly cheap because, thanks to capitalism-inspired innovation, it’s abundant.  I would be foolish to try to heat water in my house over a wood stove in summer when I can spend the $12 or so a month for hot showers.  I choose that because of free will, and also because I don’t want The Mrs. killing me in my sleep.  I think that was one of the things on her list before she accepted my marriage proposal – “Does he sleep heavier than me?”

SOCIALISM

Veganism is like socialism.  They’re both fine, unless you like eating.

Capitalism has positive incentives – make someone else happy with the transaction, and you win.  If you do it in a significant enough way?  You can win bigly.  If you don’t win bigly?  You can at least do better than your parents.

That has been the fuel of what we’ve called the American Dream, the idea that you could have your own struggle and the outcome is determined largely based on your effort, along with a bit of luck.  Heck my boss gave me a raise yesterday.  He said he wanted my last week here to be happy.

The United States has been a place of abundance for the last 75 years.  Have there been recessions and setbacks along the way?  Certainly.  Has there been poverty?  Absolutely.  I like to do my best to fight poverty, but I’ve found the homeless aren’t very good at wrestling.

RAMEN

Where can you hear songs about poverty?  Singapore.

One of the things that has been proven by President Johnson’s attempt to make a “Great Society” is that, despite trillions in .gov spending on poverty, it will always be with us.  Even before Johnson’s “Great Society” program, the poverty rate had dropped to below 15%.  That’s why a Mercedes-Benz® and poverty are the same:  Princess Diana couldn’t stop either of them.

Since 1966, poverty has bounced around between 11% and 15%.  Perhaps, in some fashion, these programs have prevented higher levels of poverty during recession?  It is certain, however, that we didn’t even have an official poverty measure until 1959.

The structure of the economy, however, began to change.  A typical factory job, obtainable with a high school degree, provided enough money for a house, car, and necessities for a family.  Note I said job – wives working was something that happened before the kids were born and after they were in school, at least in the growing middle class.  The middle class has learned that, while money can’t buy happiness, poverty can’t buy anything.

Even though a typical family is now supported by a working husband and wife, things had been good.  At least some of the additional wages from both spouses working went to an upgraded lifestyle – capitalism was more than happy to provide new things to buy with the income, like Zima® wine coolers and Dan Fogelberg™ CDs.  Capitalism had taken us from the scarcity and hunger of the Great Depression to abundance and humongousness of actual obesity caused by an abundance of cheap, excess calories.

Although it’s trivially easy to prove that communism is nearly certainly the most evil system ever devised on the planet, capitalism has its faults, too:  Capitalism has no soul.  It is a blind force that will sell you anything, even if it’s something bad for you.  Taken to an extreme, capitalism will provide more than just immoral items, it will provide things that are illegal.  And never mix Islam with capitalism – they don’t like profit jokes.

Capitalism also provides incentives to manipulate.  Advertising does a wonderful service when it makes us aware of new products that can help us, but advertising can manipulate desires, like Edward Bernays’ propaganda campaign to convince women (who didn’t smoke at the time) that smoking cigarettes was exciting and fashionable.  Now?  Type “women smoking” into Google®, and you’ll get 810,000,000 matches.

Another fault of capitalism is that it produces products that are designed to fail.  Want your iPhone® to last five years?  Good luck with a battery that lasts only three.  Apple™ did one better:  it made software changes that slowed older iPhones™ down.  Why?  To get you to buy a new iPhone©.  I did click on one of those, “You just won an iPhone®” pop-ups.  Thankfully, it was just a virus.

IPHONE

It could be yours, for only 36 payments of $375,221.43.

Making your products bad isn’t new.  Lightbulbs, when initially manufactured, lasted too long.  A cartel devised a standard that made sure that light bulbs were constantly failing.  Why?  So you would have to buy more.  Another example?

Two words:  printer ink.

Those failures of capitalism, however, are a symptom of abundance.  People can afford those things, so companies do whatever they can to get as much of their money as possible.

I fear our economy may be slipping into scarcity.  Not next week, not next month.  But as we see increased tensions, the possibility of prolonged outages of things we take for granted are likely.  Higher rates of unemployment are likely, too.

There is a sign that the government attempting to prop up the economy is starting to create disastrous distortions.  From today’s news, this story (LINK) describes how the Federal Reserve’s® pumping of trillions of dollars into the system is having the effect of blowing bubbles in the economy.  Color me surprised.

Abundance of the “one income for a family” type is gone for many professions, if not most.  If the Fed™ decides that it wants to keep blowing bubbles with trillions of dollars just made up on the spot, the result will be inevitable:  a currency reset.

People will blame this on capitalism.  I won’t.  The condition we find ourselves in is the result of decades of currency manipulation.  You can’t print money forever without an impact.  What we will be left with is a contracting economy.  What system works best in an economy that’s getting smaller, not larger?

I know what will be sold – communism.  The reason people keep falling for this one is in times of difficulty is that they believe that it will solve their problems.  The reality, every single time, is that communism will end in murder, scarcity, and hunger – it’s like a game of Russian roulette, but in this game a few hundred million die.  But, hey, maybe this time?

FAILED

Unemployed leather workers have nothing to hide.

Capitalism has been the only reliable way to deal with economic crisis in the past.  The incentives it provides minimized the hunger and the pain of the Great Depression.  But it’s not the “capitalism” we see today.  The people of the United States in the 1930s helped each other, and capitalism was a way to run the economy, not the highest moral good.

Was it a massive Federal program that saved people during the Great Depression?  For the time during the Great Depression, the spending of the Federal government tripled compared to years before the Great Depression.  In my reading, the Federal government enacted thousands of policies, many contradictory to each other.  Unemployment was still 14%+ when World War II started.  The war clearly ended the Great Depression.

But people helped each other back then during the Depression – Great Grandpa and Grandma McWilder even took in kids from families that couldn’t afford to raise them.  The United States was a far more united place, and the shared morality was more than a shared economic morality, like we see today.  Did you get aid only if you were moral and upright, or a widow?

AGAIN

If you get to choose what Hell to go to, pick the communist one.  It will be out of coal and molten sulfur.

Yup.  If you could work, you were expected to work.  But yet, in 1950s America before the advent of our current bouquet of welfare programs, did citizens let people starve?

No.

The best answer is capitalism, but a smaller, more local, and more moral version of it.  Nearly every problem we have in the United States was created by increasing power in a large central state and huge metropolitan areas.

More on that in Friday’s post, where we’ll talk about how the problems created by modern life are more than economic.

Money, Power, Politics, and Soros

“What’s the point of having power if you don’t abuse it?” – Dilbert

GOB

My superpower is hindsight.  But I can see that won’t help us now.

When I was a kid between the ages of 10 and 14, sometimes my dad would take me on his business trips.  They were always to the same city – the capital city of our state.  It was hours away, so it was quite an adventure.  Where I grew up there was exactly one elevator (in a two story building at the college) and one escalator (at the JCPenny®) building within a 130 mile radius from town.  We were so isolated that our Democrats were against communism all the way into the 1990s.

Did I mention I grew up in the sticks?

Pop Wilder was a small town banker, and sometimes the meetings in Capital City were at the Big Banks®, which were inevitably in huge skyscrapers.  It was quite a thrill going up into those buildings.  I’d sit in the lobby on the 20th floor, reading science fiction while Pop did whatever it was he was there for in the meeting room.  One bank in particular amazed me because the bathroom, on the 30th floor, had a full length clear window – you could stand up and pee and stare out at the city below.  There is probably a joke about Big Banks™ in there.  I’ll let you fill in that particular blank – this is a family blog.

These trips were fun.

BANKERS

I kept getting checks from the banks during the COVID-19 social isolation – the kept leaving me a loan.

But one trip, we went to visit the majority owner of the bank that Pop Wilder ran.  I recall this trip rather vividly, since we didn’t go to one of those gleaming towers.  Pop pulled the car into a strip mall.  Not a nice strip mall, but a dingy one in a sketchy area of town.  Pop never talked about why he was having those meetings, so I wasn’t exactly sure why we were there.  Perhaps he was going to sell me for a kid that didn’t keep his room in a condition that was specifically listed as containing elements of a war crime as defined by the United Nations?

Pop and I went up to one of those unmarked doors you see sometimes – just a steel door with a small diamond of glass about head high.  You could tell it was a classy area, because the glass was the kind with the wire mesh inside.  There was a buzzer next to the door, and Pop pressed it.

A voice answered, “Who is it?”

“Pop Wilder.”  The lock on the door made an angry buzzing sound and Pop pulled the door open.  We went up a flight of stairs – this particular strip mall doorway led to a second floor.

MAFIA

The Mafia chemist wanted the brake lines to rust – that way it would look like an oxidant.

I hadn’t seen any mob movies at the age of 12, but after watching them when I got older, the office had that feel.  Run down.  Dingy.  Like the world had passed this neighborhood by on its way to making those gleaming towers that were miles away in the downtown area.

A secretary (they were called that, back then) didn’t say much more than, “He’s waiting.”

I walked into the office with Pop.  The office had a feeling that I associate with movies from the 1940s or 1950s – dark, smoky paneling, a thin, worn carpet.  Even the desk was ancient, but not in the “oh, cool antique” way, but in the “early prison work camp warden furniture” way.

The man Pop was planning to meet sat behind the desk.  He didn’t get up as we entered.  His only acknowledgement that we were there was a glance, like an annoyed man staring at what was on the bottom of his shoe.  He looked, and I kid you not, exactly like Mr. Potter from It’s a Wonderful Life.  So I’ll call him that.  After reviewing information on the Internet, I’d estimate his age at that time as about 85.

Pop Wilder:  “Hello, Mr. Potter.  This is my son, John.  I mean, my other son, John.”

Pop didn’t really say that, but it amuses me to write it, since my older brother’s name was John as well.  I guess he was Juan one, and I was Juan two.

Mr. Potter’s gaze fell upon me.  It wasn’t pleasant.  Normally, when I met an adult, they at least pretended to be interested and would ask some questions and make small talk.  Not Mr. Potter.

“Hi,” I said, more to break the silence than anything.

He never said a word to me.  Pop Wilder handed me the keys to the car, and said, “You can go wait outside, son.”  That was fine with me – I had a book.

POTTER

Bad puns?  That’s how eye roll.

Mr. Potter, as I mentioned, was the majority owner of the bank that Pop ran.  Pop and his brother owned a fairly small amount of the shares, but Mr. Potter owned the vast majority of the bank.  From snippets between my parents in those conversations that last the length of a childhood, it turns out that Mr. Potter was far more than an angry bank owner working from a shabby office.  He was actually a kingmaker in state politics.  He was a Democrat, and no one got “the nod” unless he approved.  He had spent decades of his life building up connections with every important person in state politics.

In today’s terms, the big, shining gleaming banks had Money, billions of dollars.  This was the sort of Money that Mr. Potter didn’t have.  Sure, Mr. Potter had millions back when millions meant something, but Mr. Potter also had raw, naked Power.  Want to be governor?  He couldn’t guarantee it, but he could probably make sure it didn’t happen if you made him mad.

Money and Power are different things – most people equate them, but it’s not really so.  Elon Musk has Money, but he certainly lacks Power.  Yes, there’s another fill in the blank joke in there about Tesla™ and power.  If Elon Musk had Power?  They wouldn’t have closed his car factories due to WuFlu. Power is where the governor would have found some way that the factories were found to be “essential” businesses.  Real power is when the governor does what you want before you even ask.

Elon Musk has Money, but as only one out of 157 or so billionaires in California, he doesn’t have Power.  But he does have $46 billion dollars*, so don’t feel bad for him.  *That’s because it’s mainly in stock – a big Tesla™ crash, and it could be discharged.  See, I finally made that electrical joke.

SOROS

Soros was going to organize a riot of amputees, but he was worried it would get out of hand.

George Soros, on the other hand, only has a listed net worth of a little over $8 billion dollars.  But Soros has invested heavily in politics.  He’s created and funded a vast network of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) that drive politics globally.  How many connections does Soros have?  According to Discover the Networks (LINK), which looks to understand who funds all of the Leftist organizations, Soros is associated in one way or another with 210 organizations that are hard Left.  How hard Left?  How about “Catholics for Choice”?  It’s like I created a group called “Muslims for Bacon”.

But $8 billion. That seems low.  Can you plot a Leftist overthrow on the cheap?  Not at all.  Soros has spent a staggering $32 billion on his foundations since 1984, including a recent transfer of $18 billion to his Open Society Foundation®.  Heck, it once took Jeff Bezos a whole month to make that kind of money.

George Soros is just like that Mr. Potter I met, but on a global scale.  Just a single one of his initiatives is active in over 120 countries in the world.

SOROS3

I heard that George Soros is the Lucky Charms™ evil twin – he’s tragically malicious.   

What drives that kind of raw lust for Power?  I mean, it must mean something to Soros, since he’s given away tens of billions of dollars to get it.  Soros gives us a clue in his own words in a book he wrote about his favorite subject, himself: “If truth be known, I carried some rather potent messianic fantasies with me from childhood.”  It’s no wonder that Soros looks like the evil Emperor from Star Wars™.

And what drove Mr. Potter?  I have no idea.  It wasn’t luxury – his office reminded me of the chief psychiatrist’s office at the asylum that all of those movie serial killers break out of.  Notoriety?  He had a very sparse Wikipedia page a decade ago – it’s gone.  So not that.  Philanthropy?  Nope, none I know of.

I am always concerned about the motives of people who seek Power over others.  Is it ego?  Is it insecurity?  Is it a genuine desire to help others?

Always remember what Mao said:  “Power flows from the barrel of a gun.”   You can have Money, but when Josef Stalin has the NKVD pick you up, you’ll learn quickly the difference between Money and Power.

SOROS2

Soros has evil lessons with Satan every week.  I have no idea what Soros charges.

While mentioning Money and Power I’d be leaving out one very important part of the equation if I just kept in terms of those two material concepts.

There is at least one other type of Power – and that’s Personal Power.  You can call it Spiritual, you can call it Virtue, or you can call it a dozen other names it goes by.  It’s the Power that comes from standing up for what’s right despite the storms that will come.  It’s telling your boss, “no” when he asks you to do what you know is unethical.  It’s standing up when everyone else in the world seems to be against you, but you know that you’re right.

I’d take that Power over any Power that Mr. Potter ever had.  And Soros? He may gain the whole world, but he’s already lost his soul.

Charles Peguy said, “Tyranny is always better organized than freedom.”  I think this was sometime before his last quote, “Germans, what Germans?” at the opening of the Battle of the Marne during World War I.

Tyranny seeks Money and Power.  Yet?

Freedom keeps winning.

Civil War 2.0 Weather Report: A Year Down The Road

Count de Monet: “It is said that the people are revolting.”
King Louis XVI: “You said it! They stink on ice.”
History of the World, Part I

CLOCK

When I copy in these big clocks into my posts, it’s a huge paste of time.

  1. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
  2. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
  3. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
  4. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
  5. Open War.

We are at step 9. Step 9. is, of course, two minutes to midnight. I didn’t move to step 9. last month because last month, violence was just happening. This month? Violence is being commonly justified by local and state authorities. When protesters a mob tore down a gate to access private property in St. Louis, which set the stage. When the Modern Sporting Lawyer™ and his wife pulled out firearms to protect themselves, the sane world cheered.

MSL

Yes, I recycled this one. Couldn’t resist.

That’s why a District Attorney vowed to find something, anything to charge this couple with. The one thing the mob cannot stand is decent, armed people standing up to the mob. The politicians have made the mob and know that it must be fed.

The fact that CHAZ/CHOP was allowed to exist, with the rampant lawlessness of the mob in charge for weeks was another sign. We are very, very close to open warfare.

I stole the clock metaphor from the (Leftist) Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists©. It’s a good metaphor, because it creates an immediacy. And I can and will go backwards if events justify it, though at this point it seems like no one wants to go backwards.

In this issue: Front Matter – A Year Down The Road – Violence and Censorship Update – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Links

Welcome to Issue 12 of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, feel free to subscribe and you’ll get every post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30 Eastern.

A Year Down The Road

I started the Weather Reports a little over a year ago because I could see the changes coming faster and faster. I’ve been concerned about the economy since I read The Fourth Turning (The Economy, The Fourth Turning, Kondratieff, and You.) back around the year 2000. When you look at all of the trends – social, economic, political – I could see trouble on the horizon. If you want some in-depth thought on how The Fourth Turning is progressing, Jim over at The Burning Platform (LINK) is your man.

The 2007 housing price collapse wasn’t a surprise to me. When I bought my house, I was (fortunately) in the position to negotiate with my employer that they’d cover any loss on sale if I moved for them. As house prices were going up, up, up . . . they agreed. And why not? It wouldn’t cost them a dime.

It did. My house dropped 20% in price between when I bought it and when it finally sold two years after I moved out. I don’t give myself genius points for this, but when they offered me a loan that was nearly ten times my salary? With no income verification?

Yikes.

The tensions we face aren’t going away anytime soon, in fact they’re not anywhere near their peak. Those same social, economic, and political factors have gotten worse, not better in the last 20 years.

AUGUST

Is anything out of the question?

Will one more year down the road have as much change as we have seen in the last year?

Why wouldn’t it?

Are you ready for that?

Violence and Censorship Update

In the previous posts, it has been either violence or censorship that’s shown up in a month. This month? We get both. I’ll start with censorship.

What’s out? Statues. Toppling statues is censorship – censorship of the past. George Orwell described it well in his book, 1984:

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute.”

No bit of American history is safe, from George Washington to Thomas Jefferson to Teddy Roosevelt to “American Pioneers”, Spanish explorers, and black abolitionist Frederick Douglass. Yup. All have to go. And not by vote, not by decision, but by the raw power of the mob.

An episode of the British television classic Fawlty Towers has been removed because of offensive language, and the wind has done gone with Gone With The Wind, which had to be shuttered “temporarily” so that (pulls answer from hat) people won’t be offended.

So, history has been judged to be insufficiently woke.

WOKE

Right now the media is so woke, it’s like they took NoDoze® with coffee and meth to get ready for their Gender Studies final.

YouTube® just concluded its next round of purges. Dozens of large channels with millions of views are now gone. The biggest personality banned was Stefan Molyneaux, philosopher and badthinker. His crime? Not sure. People think it’s because he has had guests (scientists) on in the past that indicate that there might be group differences in cognitive ability. Oops – can’t discuss that idea in 2020.

Among other channels that YouTube® suggested for me and that I listened to from time to time was The Iconoclast, a British guy on the Right who advocated for lower immigration into Great Britain. Now? Gone. Plus? A major newspaper published a story on The Iconoclast’s identity. In 2020, having the wrong views means going without a job.

But that’s not violence, right?

On Reddit®, I heard that over 2000 subreddits were banned. I had been to several of the banned subreddits in the past, and was a bit surprised. One of them, r/consoomers was specifically set up for self-improvement and rejection of globalist commercialism. A little politically incorrect?

Yup.

Now gone. Another dead subreddit is r/The_Donald. It’s crime? Can’t be sure. I think it was too popular, with over a million subscribers. And a group of a million people who like Donald Trump? Triggered!

Reddit™ made rule changes as well. They initially rolled out this new rule for commenting:

“While the rule on hate protects such groups, it does not protect all groups or all forms of identity. For example, the rule does not protect groups of people who are in the majority….”

After someone got on Wikipedia and figured out that, for instance, men are in the minority since there are more women in the world, the rule on protecting people from hate wouldn’t apply to people who were misogynist. Oops. They changed that rule.

But it sure showed what they were intending.

This is the biggest month of censorship against the Right in, well, ever. I expect it to get worse. The idea that Donald Trump could be re-elected is mind poison for the Left. Leftist fetishize politics as a religion – Trump is the ultimate demon. They will do everything and anything so that he isn’t re-elected.

KRAMER

Share this meme and help a Leftist lose sleep so they can stay woke.

I’d spend more time updating you on the violence of the past month, but it’s probably easier to update you on the places that weren’t violent. Modern Mayberry was one. Here, we watch the news and see the world falling apart, and it’s like there’s another country out there.

There is. It’s just waiting to be born.

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that lead to the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

June has been the worst month so far – economic, violence, and political instability are all in bad shape. It’s so bad that even the illegals don’t want to sneak across the border.

Violence:

VIOLF

Up is more violent. Violence had been down because everyone was stuck in the basement. I predicted that May would be mellow, and then we’d see the uptick in June. I was almost right, and now June has pegged the scale. This measure because the way it’s constructed, doesn’t go higher than 300. Yes, the Y-axis label shows 350, but that’s because I didn’t notice until I’d put the graph together and it’s 3AM.

Political Instability:

POLI

Up is more unstable. Instability is up only slightly, which might seem weird, but the system is still stable overall. I may look into another graph next month to measure political change, because it sure feels like we crossed over into a regime where big political changes are more likely – and this graph was meant more about the overthrow of a sitting president, hence the peak in December. I expect more instability heading into November, and may make some changes to the inputs next month.

Economic:

ECONF

Down indicates worse economic conditions, and it’s down yet again. I’m hoping this is the worst that we’ll see, but I expect a market crash this month (July) or next.

Illegal Aliens:

BORD

Down is good, in theory. This is a statistic showing border apprehensions by the Border Patrol. Down, probably related to WuFlu, unemployment, and riots. This is at a five year low for this time of year.

LINKS

LINKS

These are from Ricky this month:

Although the US Government has FINALLY stopped paying for the First Civil War…

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/last-person-receive-civil-war-pension-dies-180975049/

…worries about the Second Civil War continue to build….

https://www.theday.com/article/20200616/OP04/200619472

https://prospect.org/politics/americas-civil-war/

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-avoid-second-american-civil-war-163096

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/345640-darren-aquino-says-its-time-to-pick-a-side-in-coming-civil-war

https://www.thetrace.org/2020/07/gun-background-checks-june-record/

https://www.thetrace.org/2020/06/boogaloo-gun-ammunition-marketing-facebook-instagram/

…which many think can be stopped just by not talking about it…

https://www.omaha.com/opinion/clarence-page-the-current-civil-war-is-fought-on-cultural-territory/article_1661faef-ef9d-5622-88d6-d3308d9fbb88.html

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/06/05/lets-knock-off-the-blithe-talk-of-a-coming-civil-war/

https://goducks.com/news/2020/6/26/general-uo-osu-series-no-longer-to-reference-civil-war.aspx

MSM says Antifa is not a national problem….

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/google-top-stories-featured-false-news-rumored-antifa-civil-war

https://prospect.org/civil-rights/antifa-all-around-trump-media-fox-news-fear-protests/

https://time.com/5008829/antifa-november-4-rumors/

…it’s the Boogaloo Bois that are the threat…

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/29/style/boogaloo-hawaiian-shirt.html

https://theintercept.com/2020/06/10/boogaloo-boys-george-floyd-protests/

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/boogaloo-movement-recent-violent-attacks/story?id=71295536

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/us/boogaloo-extremist-protests-invs/index.html

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/06/04/armed-white-men-milwaukee-protests-could-far-right-boogaloo/3147128001/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/19/what-is-boogaloo-movement/3204899001/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sethcohen/2020/06/16/civil-war-20-the-boogaloo-movement-is-a-wake-up-call-for-america/#3d9f1cb071ab

https://www.voanews.com/usa/race-america/boogaloo-boys-aim-provoke-2nd-us-civil-war

…but Facebook will save us….

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53244339

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/facebook-instagram-profit-boogaloo-ads

https://www.inventiva.co.in/stories/priyadharshini/facebooks-boogaloo-ban-is-it-too-late/

…meanwhile, Small Town America simmers….

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/07/01/three-groups-plan-gather/

https://www.gazettenet.com/Sanger-letter-34596978

…and maybe there are investing strategies for the Civil War?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-07-03/trading-and-investing-americas-second-civil-war

The Amazing, Collapsing, Dehydrated Economy! Just Add Water!

“Whenever Corey and Trevor go out with Ricky and Julian, what happens? They come home crying.  Dehydrated.  Mysterious wounds.  They won’t tell me what happened because they’re scared to death of those guys.” – Trailer Park Boys

DEHI

And people say I have a dry sense of humor.

I remember hearing about dehydrated water as a kid – probably the first time was a joke from my science teacher in 7th grade.  He also told us (I’m not making this up) drinking stories.  He taught us that if you go out drinking when you have just donated blood, you get drunker faster.  Who says that middle school science doesn’t teach important life lessons?

But the idea of dehydrated water as a product still got filed away somewhere in the six million neurons I have that are dedicated to 7th grade science.  It’s filed somewhere between “don’t stare at the Sun directly through the telescope again Wilder” and “mercuric oxide might look like cinnamon, but it’s not as tasty.”  And dehydrated water popped into my mind as I was preparing to write this post today.

Why?

The economy of the United States is dehydrated water at this point.  The unemployment rate from Shadow Stats® is somewhere around 35%.  Even the Department of Labor thinks the number of people that are unemployed is somewhere north of 20%.  Heck, I heard a guy was upset about losing his job at McDonalds™ even though he worked for a clown.

BURKA

The head of Old McDonalds® Farm is the CIEIO.

As I first predicted when the WuFlu was just coming over the horizon and the first lockdown hit, this is devastating to the economy.  The difference between 2% growth year over year and -2% growth is enough to cause Washington D.C. to be as uncomfortable as a Joe Biden voter when Joe starts talking about how he thinks that JFK has the plan to save us from the Spanish flu.

I was not surprised by the quick action money shower from the .GOV folks.  What did surprise me is that they used the occasion to juice the economy also by giving money to working people rather than just bailing out banks.  Many people on unemployment are actually making more money on unemployment than they made when working, thanks to the extra $600 a week the .GOV folks are adding to their unemployment insurance check.  Some could be making up to $50,000 a year.  For not working.  But Congress makes $174,000 a year for not working, so there’s still room for career growth!

But the .GOV isn’t just juicing the average unemployed worker.  As noted in a previous post, the Federal Reserve Bank™ is engaged in “plunge protection” where money is strategically pumped into the stock market to keep it from crashing.  That’s generally accepted.  But now?  The Federal Reserve© has been, for the first time in history, buying corporate bonds.

Bonds are really just loans.  A company, say, Apple® decides it wants have more slave labor camps factories built in China.  So, it calls up the Chinese partner, and says that it will pay.  But since the cushions in Steve Jobs’ couch have been raided for quarters already, they decide to borrow money.  You or I would have to go ask someone to borrow money from them.  But Apple™ sells their debt in the form of bonds, or promises to pay the borrowed money back, plus interest.

DYE

When James Bond was offered a sandwich, he had a choice of ham or turkey.  Of course he chose bacon, not bird.

Normally, Apple© would sell those bonds to places like pension funds and 401k’s.  But in 2020, the Federal Reserve™ buys them.  Yes.  One of the most profitable companies in the world gets its debt purchased by the Fed®.

Why?

The stock market needs to be propped up, and so does the bond market.  And after hundreds of millions of loan payments haven’t been made.  Which of those loans are good?  Where is the cash to pay the lender coming from?  No one knows.  No one wants to take a risk.  Money is like me on a vacation day, it just sits there.

Markets are freezing up because the money isn’t moving, because the economy is freezing up.  What the Fed® is doing is artificially injecting money into the market because the market has ceased to work.  It’s like my can of dehydrated water – there’s really nothing in it.  The joke is that you can add a gallon of water to the contents of the dehydrated water can to make a gallon of water.

The Fed® is adding billions of dollars to an empty economy and pretending that nothing’s wrong, that they didn’t just make an economy out of nothing.  “Hey, instant economy.  Just add money.”

KOBE

Planes are different than an economy.  Planes only crash once.

My prediction is that the extra $600 a week won’t go away, unless Congress wants the economy to crater even more before the election in November.  Why?  Since giving away money to people and companies that haven’t earned it is literally the thing Congress loves most in the whole world, I think they will.  And I think they’ll ultimately manage to extend it.  Probably for at least 100 weeks.

We’ve borrowed more in the first quarter than we spent in 2011.  What’s a few more zeros on the national deficit?

But when I wrote that first post about the crash, I was (more or less) assuming we’d be done with the economic mess associated with COVID-Forever no later than July.  I thought that people would, as much as possible, not go licking all the doorknobs that they see and the disease would run out of people to infect.  Yay, normal summer.  And given that, I still predicted at least five years to recover, but more likely a decade.

Nope.  States are re-locking down right now.  States that never experienced the devastating deaths caused by the nursing-home stuffing Governor Cuomo set up in New York are seeing cases rise.

>Uh-oh.jpg

When large segments of the economy simply disappear, you can’t simply replace them with money.  In the end, money has real purposes in the economy:

  • Money provides incentives for good behavior, like starting successful companies and saving. Blowing it all on Three Stooges® videos from Amazon™ is probably not the best investment strategy I ever had.
  • Money provides an allocation of resources throughout the economy without central planning – it’s a way to allocate the productive energy of the economy without a team of Central Politbureau Commissars picking and choosing winners and losers. Congress hates  How can you get votes if you don’t mismanage the economy?
  • Money provides ways for people to trade for “stuff” without bartering. I could trade your (for example) a vast quantity of Beanie Babies® for a pickup truck.  But then you’d be stuck with all of those Beanie Babies™ and have to trade them for the goat milk and pantyhose that you really need.  Unless you can milk Beanie Babies© and then use their skins for leggings?

BEANIE

She was upset when the prices crashed.  I tried to tell her she’s not worthless – her kidneys are worth a lot on the black market.

But money isn’t the economy – money only has value if everyone believe in it.  You can’t just give everyone money and expect that good things will happen.  At some point, people need to make things.  And people need to believe that money has value.

You can’t grow plants with Brawndo©, you can’t fight crime with a macaroni duck, and you can’t rehydrate an economy with money.

But the Fed© is trying to do that.  Not grow plants with Brawndo®.  But make an economy work by sprinkling money on it.

The next phase of our economic crash, however, is default.  Unless the Fed© keeps rehydrating, eventually people will stop paying back money – it will be a Cashpocalypse – borrowers won’t have money, and lenders won’t get paid.  But that’s okay, we can simply have the Fed™ just shower the money onto both of them?

CARGO

The French, of course, had to jump on the Cargo Cult bandwagon, so they called it “Special Cargo Cult”, or S-Cargo for short.

In the 1940s, massive amounts of men and material flowed into the South Pacific so that we could beat the Japanese back from Australia so it could be handed over to the Chinese in the 21st century.  Several cults known collectively as “Cargo Cults” formed.  One speaks about their deity, John Frum, or, as I prefer to think of it, John From Wilder’s house.  (Seriously, they think the name of John Frum came from “John from America”.)

The idea behind these Cargo Cults was that if the natives built symbolic airstrips and symbolic airplanes out of bamboo (or whatever they had) then the flow of cargo that the American and British armed forces brought in would resume.  Then?  Perfect prosperity.  Hurray!

The Fed™ has become infected with the idea that the economy can be summoned.  That’s the definition of a Cargo Cult.

Sadly, I have bad news.  It won’t work.  It can’t work.

You can’t make an economy by rehydrating it with money.  But you can regress an economy.  And you can destroy the belief in the money you’re flooding the system with.

Just because it’s gone exactly the way I’ve thought it would and told you it would, don’t mind me.  In all seriousness, I could be wrong.

But I could be right.  What then?

Have some water on hand?

Your Economy, Featuring: Romans, Rothschilds, and Rioters

“You have two settings-no decision and bad decision. I wouldn’t let you run a bath without having the Coast Guard and the fire department standing by, but yet here you are running America. You are the worst thing that has happened to this country since food in buckets and maybe slavery!” – Veep

DOLPHIN

I had made a mistake and bought too many art supplies.  That was my excess stencil crisis.

Cui bono.  That’s Latin for “who benefits,” and in this case doesn’t have anything to do with the singer for the band U2©, who have been benefiting from everything.  Even my GPS is branded by U2™, and it sucks.  The streets have no name, and I still haven’t found what I’m looking for.

Cui bono.

That quote being in Latin is especially appropriate for today’s post.   Marcus Licinius Crassus (115 B.C. – 53 B.C. – they aged backwards then) goes down in history for creating the first fire department that Rome had.  At his own expense, he recruited and trained a brigade of 500 men who, at the first sign of a fire, would speed toward the smoke and flames.

Crassus would rush to the fire with them.  Once the fire department was on site, Crassus would find the building owner and offer to buy the burning building at an obvious discount.  I am not making this up.  Obviously, the longer the fire went on, the lower Crassus’ offer would go.  Once the property owner had sold, Crassus would give the signal and his fire department would save his newly purchased building.

I’m sure that sometimes the fire got away from him, but most of the time Crassus profited from the deal.  It was a fire sale, right?

ARSON

When I was working as a firefighter, in one building all that was left was the bottom of a shoe – it must have been the sole survivor.

Often, Crassus would then rebuild the building using his army of slave architects and artisans (not making that up, either), and then lease the building back to the original owner.  So, Crassus even had a way to get his money back.  Crassus was wealthy not only by ancient standards, but by any standards.  He’d be worth at least $11 billion in today’s money.

Cui bono?  Crassus.  I looked for a name I could call Crassus, but it was hard to find one, this being a family-friendly blog.  I’ll settle on cullion.

This is an early example of economic plunder.  Legal, yes.  Honorable?  No.

It didn’t stop with Crassus.

UBER

I once paid $20 to meet the Prince, but I partied like it was only $19.99.

When you search the Internet for tales of Nathan Rothschild back in 1815, you’ll find a host of stories that from the scholarship of 2020, don’t seem to be supported.  But what generally seems to be agreed with (even by the Rothschild Archives – LINK) is that during the Napoleonic Era, Rothschild and his brothers across the European continent had a fairly sophisticated system to transfer news and information to each other.

Information is just like a building fire in Rome:  the sooner you catch it, the more it is worth.

What had been vexing everyone in London during June of 1815 was the return of Napoleon from exile and his resumption of power in France.  Since Europe had been fighting alongside Napoleon or with Napoleon for nearly 20 years, people in the United Kingdom were scared to death that a victory by Napoleon could lead to another 20 years of war.  And just like today, no one wanted to watch a re-run.

NAPOLEON

Napoleon broke out of exile because he needed more Elba room.

Lord Wellington had been put in charge of a coalition of armies from across Europe, 68,000 total troops.  Joined by 50,000 Prussians under Blücher (cue obligatory whinny), Wellington met Bonaparte at the small village of Waterloo.  Napoleon wasn’t alone.  He had 73,000 French soldiers, and Wellington had left his panzers in his other coat, so the French fought back like they’d have to shower and give up cigarettes if they lost.

Spoiler alert:  Napoleon lost, but barely.  I think it had to go into at least one overtime, and there were some controversial instant replays.

The story goes that with the Rothschild information network, Nathan was notified about Wellington’s victory before anyone in London.  By knowing that, Nathan could make a killing in the stock market.  How well did he do?  We don’t know.  His courier wrote him:  “I am informed by Commissary White that you have done well by the early information which you had of the Victory gained at Waterloo.”  It is reported (LINK) that the Rothschild fortunes went from £500,000 to £1,000,000 in that year.  So probably pretty well, since I assume a £ is a metric $ or something.

Yes, I know that there are other stories about Nathan’s Big Day Out® that are much more exaggerated, but this one does fine in proving my point:  the best time to make money is in an uncertain market.  Or, as has been attributed to Nathan:  “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”  Especially if, like Nathan and Marcus, you can remove the uncertainty and make your bet a sure thing.

ELMO

 I did invest in an Asian/Middle East fusion restaurant called, “Wok Like an Egyptian.”

This went on during Roman times, and it went on during Napoleonic times.  Is it going on today?

It certainly is.  I was having a conversation with a friend of mine the other week, and he works for a company that was funded by a private equity firm.  Per my conversation, they deals that just his company is looking at are in the range of one hundred million to one billion dollars.  Sure, that’s a pretty big range.  But the kicker was this:

“There are pools of billions of dollars waiting for deals.”

What kind of deals?  Deals on great assets in a collapsing economy.

As we look at the wreck that we’re seeing in the economy due to the WuFlu and now the great #BLM (Burning Looting Marxists), what sort of reaction are we seeing?  Does it surprise anyone that 269 companies (LINK, H/T to CA at Western Rifle Shooters) are supporting the (actual, really founded by Marxists, look it up) BLM?

Does it surprise anyone that hundreds of millions of dollars are flooding in to BLM and affiliated organizations?  And I’m not exaggerating the amount – the fund just for bailing out rioters and looters in Minneapolis was over $90 million dollars.  Some people can loot a whole week and not make that much!

The support for BLM could be from one of the following sources, and I suspect that one or more is in play depending on the company donating:

  • Genuine support for civil rights. Sure, I believe that from companies that import goods made by overseas labor treated more poorly than the Wilder family treats our outdoor cat.
  • A cynical ploy signaling corporate virtue to get people to buy burgers. Think of it like an advertisement, but instead of featuring the social justice flavor of the week, it’s BLM this week.
  • Coordinated donations with full knowledge that the money will go toward a Marxist transformation of the United States.
  • Selected by the CEO’s secretary executive assistant at random.

SJW

I never let BLM members into my basement – I don’t want a whine cellar.

Amazon® has really been impacted by COVID-19.  I’m betting that every facet of Bezos’ business has been helped, from their online shopping to their web infrastructure to their movie rental business.  Coronachan has been good to Jeff.  But I don’t blame Bezos for that – I don’t think it was his plan to infect the United States with a virus and convince everyone to stay in the basement for three months and then have seven pages of BLM merch to sell.

Because if he did?  That’s some real Bond villain stuff and I’ve got to say, that’s the most anyone has ever done to try to convince me to buy a Prime® subscription.

Cui bono?  I mean, besides Bezos?

Someone is going to profit from BLM, even beyond the hundreds of millions of dollars donated recently to it, and even beyond the billions of dollars that will go to purchase assets during the crisis.  And it may not be money, or burger sales.  It might be measured in raw power, the power to turn a society towards the Marxist goals of the founders of BLM.

But even Crassus knew that once a fire got started, it just might get away from you.

Deflation, Inflation, Collapse – Now With Muppet Jokes

“Well those are whole pennies, right? I’m just talking about fractions of a penny here. But we do it from a much bigger tray and we do it a couple a million times.” – Office Space

FEDPLANE

If being in the Federal Reserve® offices give you a cold, what should you do?  Sudafed.

The Federal Reserve© is scared.  And inflation is currently not on their list of Halloween boogiemen –the monster they fear is deflation.  Well, deflation and accidentally mixing up Pride Month and Bulgarian History Month.  I think the main reason that the Fed™ is worried about deflation is that then people become like me in 2000 when I was looking to buy a computer.

Every six months I waited, the computer I could buy for the same amount of money was much faster with more memory.  Computers were really a deflationary item at the time as advances kept making them better and better on a nearly monthly basis.  It made sense to wait, because I could get a better deal later.

For computers, that was okay – there was a solid market for them at the time, and Intel® wasn’t going to go out of business because its next chip was going to be faster next year.  But if you apply that to the entire economy, then people would have been steering clear of the toilet paper aisle in February.  Live and learn.

Deflation is great for consumers – they get more stuff for less money.  Deflation also discourages debt – why borrow money when the dollar you’re borrowing will be worth less than the dollar you have to pay it back with?

But deflation in an economy slows everything down worse than a Kardashian trying to take a college entrance exam.  Most economies in the world are built on endless growth.  Part of the economic growth is required because more people enter the labor force every year.  The other part is the system is built on growing income, growing revenues, growing the bottom line – stock prices are built (mostly) not on the intrinsic value of a company here and now, but on the value of the company in the future.

STONKS

I hate stonks.  Gentlemen prefer bonds.

I’ve written about deflation before, but it’s probably a good time to mention some of the clues coming from the financial system.  But first, I have to explain that when a loan is paid back to the bank, money is actually destroyed.  I know that doesn’t make sense, but I’m a trained professional, and we’ll get there.  And by trained, I mean trained as a cook at a Chinese restaurant.  Okay, not trained – it was more of a wok-through.

Let’s start with a bank.  In this case, my bank.

If I were to deposit $100 in my account, I have $100 in my account, right?

Kinda.

The bank now thinks it’s their money.  It turns out that when you open a checking or savings account with a bank, you’re actually lending them money.  The banks in the United States are actually what’s known as “fractional reserve banks” in that they only have to keep a portion (or fraction) of the money that I deposited on hand for people who come in and want cash.

Traditionally, that fraction has been around 10%.  So, if I open an account with that $100 in it, the bank can lend $90 of that money out.  The theory is that not everyone wants to come in and get their money back all at once, so you only have to keep that 10% on hand for people who want their money back on any given day for whatever purpose.  It’s like stealing, but totally legal.

If too many people come in, the idea of the Federal Reserve™ (the Fed®) is that they’ll send the bank some cash if needed because tons of people borrow money all at once from the bank.  That way if Lady Gaga is coming to Modern Mayberry and everyone decides to fork over $1000 a seat for VIP tickets to listen to her sing about her her her Poker Face, the Fed will give us extra cash.  That’s why it’s called the Federal Reserve® – it’s a reserve for banks if they need cash because Lady Gaga is coming to town.

MUPPET

When you microwave a Muppet®, it will even countdown with the timer!

I didn’t want to go see Lady Gaga, so I still have my $100 in the bank.  Therefore, my bank has loaned out $90 to Johnny Depp who was a little short for the show after buying some killer weed.

But I still think I have $100.

But the bank lent out $90.

And Johnny Depp puts his money in his account in another bank until it’s time to pay for the ticket.  So, that bank now has Johnny Depp’s $90, and can immediately lend out $81 to someone else, who deposits it back in my bank.

Thus, my original $100 deposit now accounts for $171 in the economy.

As soon as the loans are paid back, the transaction unwinds and the actual amount of “money” in the system disappears.  There’s a theoretical limit to the amount of money that can be created with a certain reserve rate.

But I said the Fed was scared.  And I said it was scared of deflation.

My bank used to have to keep $10 in the vault in case I come back looking for my $100.  Used to.   As of March 15, 2020, that reserve that banks are required to keep is – drumroll please – zero.  Yes.  I’m not making that up.  It’s right here on the Fed’s own website (LINK).  The press release is here (LINK).

What this means is that banks have to keep enough cash around so if yokels like me want to withdraw $23.73 for a trip to buy some really nice earplugs the night of the Lady Gaga concert, the bank had to have that much actual cash.  But now, the banks are free to loan all of it out.  They could loan not $90 to Johnny Depp, but the full $100.  And when he put it in his bank, they could loan out $100 as well.

In the 10% reserve, there was at least some limit to the money that the banks could create by lending the same $100.  But at zero reserve?  The number of times that $100 could be lent is only constrained by the number of people who want to borrow it.  My original $100 could (in theory) create infinite dollars.  That’s Congress level math!

JOKER

My-my-my-Joker® face . . .

This means the Fed is worried about keeping banks lending, so they can keep the money supply up.  The Fed also wants to keep the money moving – they want me to buy my Lady Gaga earplugs and the person I bought them from to buy some PEZ® from Wal-Mart® and Wal-Mart™ to pay that money to an employee who buys ice cream sandwiches.  If people save their money, it’s nearly the same as there being less money in the economy.

That’s where the Plunge Protection Team comes in.  People with 401k investments get scared when the stock market goes down.  Stock market plunges are deflationary.  Plus, they really hurt the investment banks, so the one thing we know about both Democrat and Republican?  They both really want to make the investment bankers happy.

Wall Street crashing?  Let’s have a series of well-timed purchases of stock to turn it around.  Since you can look at the Fed’s balance sheet yourself, and compare it with the stock market, perhaps the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)® going up 500 points on a day when multiple large American cities are actively on fire.  The Plunge Protection Team, it is rumored, buys (or has groups like Goldman-Sachs™ buy) stocks on multiple markets to keep a crash from happening.

PPT

I hate it when the Plunge Protection Team kneads my back while I’m sleeping.

The idea is that by keeping the stock market from crashing, the economy is saved.  In one sense, that’s a logical conclusion.  Falling stock markets have panic as the main feature – people literally are scared to death, so they sell even solid stocks at bargain prices.  As a strategy, it’s a lot like buying a drunk guy another dozen shots of whiskey.  The problem’s gone.  At least for now.

But you can only game a system for so long.  Eventually, the game playing will come back to haunt you.  And the Fed may be scared of deflation right now, but all of the injection of money via loans and balance sheet inflation and stock market propping up?  The system failures get bigger, and bigger.  The old tools don’t work.  And the system fails.  This time for good in a spasm of deflation followed by inflation followed by currency collapse.

I know you’re worried about the investment bankers getting caught up in the deflation-inflation-collapse.  Don’t be!  Right now, they’re selling their stock after the plunge protection team bumps up the price and buying bunkers in Montana or old missile silos in Nebraska.  Yay, free market capitalism!

FEDBAL

I’m sure that it’s a coincidence.

I’m not saying that we’ve reached the point where we’ll see the financial systems fail with this cycle.  It may not be this leg down.  But like the Fed®, keep one eye open.

Deflation might be hiding under the bed.

Scott Adams, Debt, and Economic CPR

“Could be worse.  Could be raining.” – Young Frankenstein

FERRARI

I heard Joe Biden was thinking of having a horse for a vice president, to make the economy stable.

Scott Adams is the creator of Dilbert® and a close personal friend who I bonded with during the Olympic trials for rhythmic gymnastics.  Okay, that’s not quite true.  Scott’s a long-time acquaintance and we go to some of the same parties.  Okay, that’s not quite true, either.  Probably a more accurate statement is that I have quite a few of his books and he liked exactly two of my Tweets® back when I Twittered™ on a more regular basis.

The last one is actually true.

Anyway, Mr. Adams used to be a blogger, and had some interesting written posts over the years.  Now, he spends more time doing a YouTube® show rather than blog (LINK).  I listen to him a couple of times a month as I drive to work.  I’d watch him, but the people on the sidewalk seem to mind.  I guess I’m not as bad a driver as Helen Keller.  But she had a real excuse, being a woman and all.

One comment I’ve heard Scott make at least twice during the COVIDanomic® crisis is that he’s optimistic about the economy restarting and taking right off.  More or less he has said, “Unlike a war or some other catastrophe, everything we need for a successful economy is still sitting there.  All we have to do is restart it.”

One thing I’ve enjoyed about Mr. Adams is that he’s incredibly perceptive, and the reason I listen to him is he’s a constant source of unique opinions.  He was one of the first to pick Trump winning in 2016. Adams noticed the way Trump uses the language of persuasion and thought it would be the difference in the election.  Me, I generally vote based on lawn signs, which is why I voted for my realtor last election.

JEB

Jeb was a pallbearer at his dad’s funeral, so he could let him down one final time.

Trump’s persuasion immediately frames and freezes the way people think about public figures.  “Low energy Jeb (Bush),” and “Little Mike (Bloomberg)” were the verbal equivalents of public political homicide.  Once Trump Tweeted® those phrases, ¡Jeb! and Little Mike could still campaign, but their chances of winning were the same as a belt made of watches – a waist of time.

So, when Mr. Adams speaks, I pay attention.  New ideas are fairly rare and I like to steal mine while they’re fresh.  As noted, many times he’s very perceptive in ways the news media forgot about being when they first caught Trump Derangement Syndrome.  In this case, I think Scott is wrong.  Everything may still be there, but you can no longer restart the economy to the previous levels than you could resuscitate Grover Cleveland by giving his corpse CPR.  I mean, I can give CPR to a steak, but it still won’t moo.

Just like Grover Cleveland, everything is there, but putting him in a lawn chair and propping him up with a tropical cocktail (with umbrella) won’t really help.  Everything’s there.

But it’s really not.

CLEVELAND

If only Grover Cleveland had Twitter®, I’m sure we’d still be laughing at the dank Benjamin Harrison memes.

Just like you can’t restart a heart after a few weeks of it sitting on the bedside table, you can’t restart an economy after months of it sitting dead in Coronapause©.

Let’s take the human body analogy a bit farther.  A business is an organism.  It consumes money and raw materials and produces goods and services as a byproduct.  You could even call that byproduct a waste if it had anything to do with Kardashians.  Companies eat metal and energy and use employee labor to pop out automobiles and beer and knee braces and fruitcake bloomers.  And where would we be without fruitcake bloomers???

A lack of oxygen makes cells in your body die.   No oxygen, no cells.

In business, a lack of money causes employees to die.  Oops.  They don’t die, they just don’t come in anymore, unless your business was in the Soviet Union, where ‘being terminated’ had an entirely different and completely Schwarzenegger-free meaning.

That lack of money for a business is called debt, and debt is what kills an economy.  Just as weak people like The Mrs. complains that she needs a constant supply of oxygen after being stuck in the car with me after a week-long backpacking trip, debt is a mechanism to make sure that people and companies require a constant flow of money.

Why would a company be in debt?

Well, for small ones, the same reason that you or I would go into debt, namely because they don’t have the money to pay for everything up front.  Debt can also provide money for the business to grow.

And moderate sized companies that you can buy on the stock market nearly have to be in debt.  Without debt, a guy from New York would buy them out using the cash that the company had hanging around for a rainy day.  They even have a name for this – a leveraged buyout (LBO).  In an LBO, the person buying the company buys it with money that he borrowed against company he’s buying.

It sounds complicated, but it’s really not.  An LBO is the same thing that happens when you sell your house.  The person buying the house uses the house as the basis of the loan to buy the house from the owners.

DEBT

And good news, it’s already several trillion higher than this!

But in the case of the company being bought out, the resulting company after the LBO is actually weaker and more likely to fail since it’s now saddled with debt.  Just because you can borrow the money doesn’t mean you should borrow the money.

Giant sized companies don’t face this problem nobody but Jeff Bezos has enough money to buy his stake in Amazon®, plus he’d send his android double to come kill you if you tried to buy the company or made fun of his girlfriend.  Apple® is similarly large, so they can have billions of dollars in cash on the books, too, but Apple™ doesn’t have a girlfriend.  Yet.

The chain of death of a business in after WuFlu looks something like this:

  • Lockdowns stop businesses from being open, which
  • Stops the money coming to Employees so,
  • Employees stop buying, therefore
  • Businesses don’t have money.

Keep this cycle up for two months and in some cases you’ve used up more reserves than the business has.  The result is either more debt, which the business still can’t pay because debt is the problem in the first place, or bankruptcy.

TP

Well, TP is one problem that’s been wiped out.

The same cycle can be seen with landlords.

  • A dollar owed for rent isn’t owed to a random person,
  • It’s often owed to a person who has a mortgage against the property, and
  • If the rent isn’t paid, many times the landlord can’t pay his
  • But when the landlord can’t pay the mortgage, the bank isn’t paid.

If you’re worried about the bank, don’t.  The old saying is that “Debt is always paid, either by the borrower, or the lender.”  In the case of banks, there’s the three Fed Amigos:  the Federal government, the Federal Reserve™, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

The reason the FDIC was created was that banks failed faster and more frequently than FUNNY during the Great Depression.  If people keep their money in Mason© jars in the backyard, it’s pretty hard for the other two Feds to track it, so they had to convince people the banks were safe.

They idea behind the FDIC is that if a bank goes bankrupt, the insurance will pay off the depositors.  I was going to look up the total assets of the FDIC to see how big a crisis it could cover, but decided it was irrelevant.  The Federal government (Treasury) or the Federal Reserve© or some group will simply print all of the money required to pay off the depositors.

PENNYWISE

I knew there was a reason that clowns scared me.

If my bank runs out of money?  Well, the Fed will just lend them some.  The FDIC is for amateur problems.

But lending money into a system where the primary problem is debt isn’t the solution, and it explains why things won’t just “start right up” after months where car sales are at 50% of last year, and airline flights are at 10% or less.  The debt is the reason that the economy was able to fall so far, so fast.  And you can’t loan more money to solve what is, at the core, a debt problem.

I do hope my close, personal friend Scott Adams is right.  But I fear he’s wrong.  But hey, we’ll always have those Olympic™ medals we won for rhythmic gymnastics.

Healthcare, Unemployment, and Soviet Nails

“Point of interest? Offering to shoot us might not work so well as an incentive as you might imagine.” – Firefly

LEATHER

But that’s not as bad as the unemployed jester:  he’s nobody’s fool.

As I looked at the headlines today, two of them jumped out at me.  The first was this (capitalization same as the original):

82% WANT MONTHLY STIMULUS CHECKS . . . . (LINK to actual study)

As usual, there are some misleading bits behind the headline.  If you clicked through the fluff pieces (several times) to the actual study on the stimulus checks that I linked to, it really says that 82% want stimulus checks as long as the government is mandating a shutdown.  That’s a lot more reasonable, since it’s not asking for that money, you know, forever.  Except in Michigan, where I believe governor will keep the economy in shutdown mode until scientists develop immortality.

So, the headline was misleading, and people didn’t want the money forever.  That made me happy.  Until I read the real story embedded in the study and saw this statistic:

74% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats agree that we should move to a universal health care system.

Stick a fork in it, folks, like a doughnut around Stacey Abrams, it’s done.  If the numbers in that study are correct, regardless of how you or I might feel about it, nationalized health care in some form is now probably just a matter of details and whose name goes on the package.

STACEY

At least the Washington Post can explain that unusual eclipse on the East Coast now.

I could spend a lot of time talking about how and why we got here, including discussion of how the system we have is just like Michael Moore:  it incorporates the worst aspects of capitalism and the worst aspects of socialism.  But I won’t.  This battle, I think, is effectively lost.  A shrewd candidate for president will make this a centerpiece of his campaign, and the only difference will be if the final version is called TrumpTreatment© or BidenBenefits®.

Obamacare has served the only purpose it was designed for:  it is the capstone of a series of Federal mandates since the 1980s that have served to make the costs of healthcare in this country so incredibly high that literally anything is better than the status quo.  Healthcare in the United States doesn’t in any way mimic a free market, except in plastic surgery and laser eye surgery.  Those costs have gone down because insurance generally doesn’t pay for them and doctors have to actually compete.  I guess the other nice thing about being a plastic surgeon is that they get to see new faces every week.

Healthcare should remind everyone of the mantra of the Left:  “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” This crisis has been made through successive actions of the Left to make hospitals have to charge responsible people for every drug addled meth and crack head and pregnant illegal alien that drools or waddles their way into the emergency room.   But there’s enough blame for everyone, since the corporatist wing of the Republican party has taken action to ensure that insulin makers can charge Americans six times the cost for a life giving drug (insulin) in the United States as compared to our neighbors to the North.

If the first headline wasn’t bad enough, the second headline was:

68% Of Unemployed ‘Eligible For Payments Greater Than Lost Earnings’ . . . . (LINK to study, and not three layers of journo-fluff)

This is one with which the extended Wilder family has some experience.  Alia S. Wilder was recently working from her home composing Mongolian throat-singing mix tapes for the black market.  Normally she does this in an office, but due to BatFlu, she was sent to work from home.  Her boss called and told her they were temporarily shutting down the business.

CUTU

The cat then told me, “Snitches get stitches.”  I had no idea he was closely watching health care policy.

Since the market they serve of throat-singing aficionados was entirely shut down by Corona-chan, it was a logical business move to make.  Alia S. Wilder was also one of the first people to get called back.  Good?  Well, yes.  But she had to take an income cut to do so, since her job pays less than unemployment insurance plus the $600 a week that Uncle Sugar was kicking in.

I was proud of her that her complaint level was exactly zero:  she was roaring and ready to get back to work.  Those mix tapes won’t make themselves, after all.  But how many people would just love to stay home and collect the WuFlu bucks?  Get paid for doing nothing?  It must be that “new normal” that people keep talking about.

I actually understand the reason people would like free money, and would prefer to stay home and eat nachos and smoke weed on Gram-gram’s couch rather than deliver pizzas.  However, the $600 a week bump sets up bad incentives:  I read one story of a guy who needed pizza delivery dudes, and no one would take the job because unemployment paid so much more.  I can see that, given the horrible hiccup in the economy, why the government would want to print lots and lots of money encourage consumption, but the increased payments have essentially raised the minimum wage to somewhere between $20-$25 just to break even with current unemployment payments.  How much more would you have to pay people to actually work?

For markets to work, there needs to be some sort of connection between supply and demand.  If you pay people $1000 a week, how many will think that working for $1200 a week is a good idea?  Not many.  And I’m willing to bet that if the economy is as bad as I think it is, the Federal government will continue the payments for longer than the current end date in July.  During the Great Recession, the Federal government continued unemployment insurance for 100 weeks.  Two years.

What kind of distortion will that have on the labor market?

GRETA

Yes, this happened on a CNN special last week. 

In thinking about this story, I was reminded of an old story that I heard about the Soviet Union:

There was a Soviet nail factory.  In the factory, the communist leaders from Moscow called and told the manager, “Make sure you increase production of nails!  You must increase the tonnage for Comrade Stalin!”

The manager hung up the phone.  “Yuri,” he called for the production foreman, “make a production schedule change.  Make very, very large nails this month.”

Accordingly, the factory had a record production month in tons of nails produced.  The communist leaders printed a picture of the factory manager receiving an award.  But soon enough, the leaders in Moscow realized that not a lot of people needed nails that weighed two pounds each.  The communist leader called the manager back.  “The tonnage was good.  But this month, make more nails for Comrade Stalin.”

The manager hung up the phone.  “Yuri,” he called for the production foreman, “make a production schedule change.  Make many very, very, small nails this month.”

NAILEDIT

Not my translation.  The KGB spy school told me to pretend I don’t speak fluent Russian.

I wasn’t able to verify the basics of this story, but I did find the accompanying cartoon which at least hints that the Soviets themselves were aware that something was broken in their system.  And I did find a story about a Soviet plant that made a machine to help make tires.  They developed new technology that allowed the machine to make tires much faster, but refused to make it.

Why?

Then they would make fewer machines.  In a market-based economy the company would celebrate their new, better machine and use it as a selling point to beat their competition.  But in this case, the incentives were to make more machines rather than make better machines.

This is the primary failure mechanism of socialist systems.  They have bad incentives.  I read once that in Great Britain that people ring up the ambulance to take them to the doctor.  Why not?  It’s “free,” right?

Once a “free” system takes hold, however, it will never leave until the economy collapses under all the “free” money and “free” services.  Why?  People become dependent on free things.  If you want to make someone dependent on you?  Give them things.  Proof?

Ever hear your parents say, “My house, my rules?”  Giving is a form of control.

FREE

I think the last person I saw driving this windowless van was named Bernie.

Freedom comes from saying “no” to free things, but I have the sense that people are going to be saying yes to free stuff.

Always think back to what Admiral Ackbar says at a time like this:

ACKBAR

American Factory and Thoughts on the Future American Economy

“China is here, Mr. Burton. The Chang Sing, the Wing Kong?  They’ve been fighting for centuries.” – Big Trouble in Little China

CAMO

I mean, the camo looks so good, maybe they wanted to show it off?

I watched the documentary American Factory this weekend, and it seemed like a good jumping off point to discuss several topics – globalization, employment, and Jenga®.  In 2008, the General Motors® plant in Dayton, Ohio was closed during GM’s© bankruptcy.  According to American Factory (now streaming on Netflix®), 10,000 people in the Dayton area lost their jobs when the factory closed.  In this current climate, I’m trying to come up with more unemployment jokes, but they all need work.

Fast forward to 2016, and a Chinese company, Fuyao Glass America®, started a new business making windshields for cars in the old GM© plant.  Fuyao bought the empty factory and spent on the order of $500 million dollars setting up the glass factory.  Then Fuyao brought hundreds of Chinese supervisors over to start the facility and train the American workers.  This makes sense – you don’t want to come across an ocean and have an employee like me when I sold used cars.  One customer, looking at a minivan, asked me, “Cargo space?”

I answered, “Car no fly.  Car go road.”  Obviously that didn’t go very well.

One of these Chinese supervisors mentioned that he was committed to stay for two years.  This was a father of two, and he’d receive no extra pay for being away from his family.  The Chinese supervisors were sleeping four to an apartment with furniture from the offices supplies aisle at Wal-Mart™.  Living with a roommate is tough.  One roommate suggested I had schizophrenia.  The joke was on him – I didn’t even have a roommate.

POSTER

Poster from the documentary.  That’s it.  No joke.  Move along.

Clips from workers talking as they were just starting their work at Fuyao made it clear that the Fuyao jobs were nowhere near the pay of the GM© jobs:  At GM™, one worker made about $29 an hour in quality control until the plant closed.  In the new Fuyao plant, she made less than $13 an hour.  I talked to a local dog breeder about a summer job for Pugsley.  She said that she only paid in expensive pure-bred puppies.  Pugsley thought about it, and decided it was income-petable.

And the work is tougher than the GM® work was.  The temperature in some parts of the production area was 200°F, or about 63 kilograms.  One worker spent over an hour a shift in ten minute increments in that heat in the furnace room, and the plant safety guy was trying to figure out how to keep him from overheating.  But that level of heat had a plus side:  during the filming I saw two hobbits throw a ring in the furnace room.

What surprised me was that the Chinese gave such access to the people making the documentary.  They caught candid moments with the Fuyao founder, Cao Dewang, (called simply “Chairman Cao”) throughout the documentary.  There were moments where he was clearly doubtful, arrogant, or out of touch.  We all have those moments, but most of the time billionaires try to avoid looking stupid in public.  I mean, except Elon Musk.

ELON

I kid.  I actually admire Mr. Musk, who seems to be able to do what NASA forgot.  Fly people into space.

On starting the plant, production levels were described as “low” so Fuyao took the step of sending several of its plant supervisors to China.  The clash of cultures was obvious at the start of the documentary, but it was during the sequence in China that really showed the difference in the way Americans and Chinese do business.

The conflict started at the first meeting.  All of the Chinese business people were in suits.  Most of the Americans were in jeans and t-shirts – one of them was wearing a Jaws® movie t-shirt.  In what was probably pretty embarrassing for the Americans, in the next scene you see them wearing Fuyao company logo polo shirts.  How did that conversation go?  “Excuse me, perhaps you would be more comfortable in a new company polo shirt and not your mustard-covered t-shirt advertising a forty year old movie?”

But it was far, far beyond just the informal dress that’s common with line supervisors in a factory.  One sequence showed all of the employees singing the corporate anthem.  Another showed line production employees in a line, yelling out productivity slogans and propaganda like Marines responding to R. Lee Ermey when he was a drill instructor.

LUNCH

They were all out of bat.

One of the American supervisors (who had learned Chinese) was bad-mouthing his employees to a Chinese supervisor.  To me, the American supervisor came across as someone who would do anything to make the Chinese like him – he was a suck-up.  After one negative comment about his own team, the Chinese supervisor said, “You should all be united and concentrate your efforts.”  It was a subtle but nuclear insult – the Chinese supervisor was slamming the American for not being united with his own workers.  And the Chinese supervisor was right.

KIM

So, refresh the page.  Am I still dead?

And working in China sounds as bad as I’d expected.  Workers typically only get one or two days off a month – a five day work week hasn’t made it to China yet.  The workers also work 12 hour shifts.  The Chinese want their workers engaged in the company.

In fact, the American supervisors were there for the company annual Chinese New Year party, where the show was put on entirely by the employees.  And as for engaged?  There were several marriages performed at the company party.  One of the Americans was so overcome with the sense of belonging around him that he was as emotional as a teenage girl watching Titanic.  Me?  I like my emotions like I like my beer.  Bottled.

A quick trip through the Fuyao workers union (which is also the company’s communist party headquarters) showed that the division between company, country, party, and worker is non-existent.  The Chinese are certain that they are superior to Americans – several times in the film this is stated by Chinese people on camera.  But they are also very proud of being Chinese – when Chairman Cao was talking to his Chinese employees in America, he told that that no matter where they go, or where they are buried, that first and foremost they will always be Chinese.

China is nationalist, (mostly) ethnically homogeneous, and unambiguously pro-Chinese at the expense of everyone else on the planet.  Work is for the government and the party.  Why are the Muslims in China in reeducation camps?  Because Islam isn’t Chinese.  China is a country built on unity and Islam isn’t on the menu.  And if you’re not on board?

SOUP

Literally.   

Next, Fuyao fired the plant manager when production and profits were too low, but it was probably the lawsuits on safety that sent him over the top.  The plant manager had been an American – they replaced him with a Chinese guy.  I’ve actually seen this in real life in one company I did business with.  When things weren’t going well, the owners fired the American and replaced him with a person from their country.  I mean, if you’re going to yell at the guy, you probably don’t want to do it through a translator.

The documentary ended with increasing tensions ahead of a vote to bring in a union.

I’m torn.  Nearly every union person I’ve ever worked with has been the opposite of what I see on television.  They’ve worked hard and with great skill.  But to listen to a labor organizer for a union talk makes me feel nothing but that I want to keep one hand on my wallet.  They have a sense of entitlement that seeks to make the worker feel that they are a victim, and to a certain mindset that’s an easy sell.  One person who early in the documentary had been so thankful to have a job, any job, had now put himself in the role of a victim at a union meeting.  Heck, in America we even have unions for pirates – but their claims always end up in arrrrbitration.

As noted above, safety and adherence to American laws wasn’t really a Chinese priority, at least at first.  But with the union vote on the line, the Chinese gave a $2 per hour raise across the board and the Plant Manager committed to solving most problems in just one day.  The plant workers voted to reject becoming unionized, by a 2-1 landslide.  After that, the Chinese terminated several vocal union supporters, but since this wasn’t China, that wasn’t a literal termination.

Some thoughts that this movie brought out:

  • The Chinese like being Chinese, and like being around Chinese people. They don’t have much use for everybody else on the planet except economically.  I’m sure they keep visiting the United States to measure to make sure that their stuff will fit.
  • A factory worker used to be able to support a family as a sole breadwinner. The same can be said of the skilled trades.  Immigration (illegal and legal) destroyed this because demand for jobs didn’t increase, while numbers of workers did.  “Greedy” factory owners get blamed, but the reality is open borders means all jobs that don’t require certificates or diplomas are under pressure from about several billion people willing to do it cheaper, especially if it can be done over the phone by “Bob” from Bangladesh.
  • Every union worker I’ve worked with has been awesome. Every union organizer I’ve ever seen on a documentary has reminded me of a conman.
  • This documentary showed the aftermath of the outsourcing of American manufacturing, a transition that has been ongoing since 1995.
  • The next economic transition is upon us. The new jobs that will be created are going to be quite a bit different than the ones disappearing.
  • The Mrs.’ Grandmother would offer her a shiny nickel to rub her corns. There’s a job that won’t be taken away soon.
  • The documentary ended with discussions on how the Chinese were trying to automate the factory even more – replacing workers with robots. It was less than thirty seconds of the documentary and the equivalent of writing something at the end of the essay that you wanted to write about but forgot.  Given Chinese recent history with something as simple as eating bats, I imagine that automation will turn into automated killer robots that will kill all of humanity.  But, hey, productivity is up!!!

VARMINT

I purchased some suspenders a few weeks ago.  Pugsley immediately pounced.  “Want me to get your varmint rifle, Pa?”

I’d like to think that globalization is doomed, however I read a story two weeks ago about a surgical mask and protective equipment maker in Dallas.  During the Swine Flu wave back in 2012, the owner had expanded capacity to meet with demand.  What did the buyers do after the rush?  They went back to sourcing from China.  The owner was left with high unemployment insurance cost and new equipment that he had to pay for even though it was unused.

This time, the owner was more than happy to expand production, but he’d only do it on a long-term contract.  Last I heard?  No takers.

But nah, I’m sure that we’ll figure out that at least partially, globalization was what made our economy so fragile that a virus could cause it to collapse like a Jenga® game played by a drunk Michael J. Fox.