Category: Complacency

The Funniest (And Most Enlightening Book Review You’ll Read This Year) End Times by Peter Turchin, Part 1

“The end time has come, not in flame, but in mist!” – The Mist

I once had shoes that had Velcro® closures.  I mean, why knot?

I recently completed the book End Times by Peter Turchin.  I have recently done a review of How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter (not that Barbara Walter, some other commie bimbo), and by comparison Ms. Walter’s book is a badly drawn crayon sketch of Donald Trump by a mildly developmentally disabled child who was born of the copulation of two stoned Leftists and raised on a diet of Trotsky and lead paint chips.

Her book was bad.  Turchin, who I imagine is also Left-leaning, was (mainly) able to keep his political opinions out of the book, and produce something useful and as even-handed as he could make it, what with having to go to fancy university parties with the Leftist intelligentsia who are globalist and communist at the same time, because, reasons.

Going back in time, Turchin predicted in the early ‘teens (2010, I believe) that the decade beyond 2020 was going to be rough.  This was based on an actual computational model, where he took various social factors, smashed them into a computer, and cranked out a slip of paper that said, “Beyond Here, There Be Dragons.”  To be fair, his model seems to have some predictive capacity, though I have yet to find a place to tinker with it, but I’ll bet Ricky can track it down if anyone can.  A .pdf that has a flavor of the model is here (LINK).

The XXX Files are a completely different subject.

His description of the model starts with one of the things that leads to collapse:  Elite Overproduction.  In this context, you pretty much know who the elite are.  Donald Trump is one, and so are the Clintons, and the Obamas, and thousands of other wealthy, socially connected people who have political power.  Per Turchin, only 9 presidents of the United States weren’t 1%ers, and before 1850, all of the presidents were elite and wealthy types and probably had exceptional hats, since they didn’t have other cool things to buy back then.

Turchin breaks down political power into four types:

  • Coercion – Do it or else. Leftists love this.  Think AntiFa® or the “new” Army.
  • Wealth – Let’s face it, rich dudes rarely do jail time, and where exactly is Epstein’s client list and why can’t you see it?
  • Bureaucracy – You own the organization that provide services or do stuff – think the IRS or the DMV.
  • Ideology – This includes CNN® and Harvard™.

Where do psychics shop?  The Seers® catalog.

In Turchin’s view, there are specialists at each level of political power.  The big problem for people is when these folks are present in too large of a quantity and get bored and have to do something else.  In 2016, we had a billionaire (Trump) running against someone worth in excess of $120 million (Hilldabeast).  In no way was this usual, but later, billionaire Michael Bloomberg jumped into the race.  Why?  Bored, I guess.  Most billionaires let other people do their fighting for them – like George Soros or Emperor Palpatine.  But I repeat myself.

The key problem is that there are more elite people who want power than there are available chairs.  That’s always the case to a certain extent, but with tens of thousands of Harvard© and Stanford™ and Dartmouth® grads fighting for elite positions in every facet of the coercion, wealth, bureaucratic, or ideological elite, well, this starts to drive instability, per Turchin.  Per me, there seem to be a lot of people who have no connection whatsoever with anyone but themselves and their elite cocoon of friends with the same ideas and no-fat decaf pumpkin-spice lattes.

Turchin later goes on to talk about how the British killing off tons of French nobility during battles around 1400 to 1450 actually helped France to have a much more stable political period because there everybody had stuff to do other than try to overthrow the king or kill their brother or eat snails and smoke cigarettes while wearing berets and carrying baguettes of bread everywhere.

I once saw a baguette in a cage.  I guess it was bread in captivity.

Yes, in the coming years at least half of the elite will either die or cease to be elite and have to drive Yugos® or Ford Escorts™ while working at JCPenney’s©.

There just aren’t enough chairs in the inner circle to go around.

So, we’ve got too many elites, which is one of Turchin’s factors that lead to societal breakdown.  What else leads to problems?  Turchin calls the next one, “Popular Immiseration” – bluntly, when life sucks for the common person.  Another term for this is Bidenomics.  Economic power of workers is disappearing, wages are going backwards when it comes to purchasing power, and jobs are more uncertain and awful.

To be fair to Biden, this was the trend even before he was selected, and was really the feeling that ushered in Trump.  Trump was and is a reaction to the crapfest that the economy has turned into, and is more or less predictable.  In 1956 Trump would have been a joke candidate, in 2000 Trump was a joke candidate, but by 2016 Trump was taken seriously because, to a large proportion of Americans, life is slowly becoming more miserable, daily.  The needed someone, anyone, to listen to them and stop the nonsense that the Left (and, to be fair, the Chamber of Commerce Right) is shoving down their throats.  Mittens Romney was just the same as the Left in his goals, he just used a different phrase to get there.

The last thing the American people wanted was ¡Jeb!  To give an example from another period in American history that was in crisis, Abraham Lincoln was another joke candidate that fell into a period where he could be elected.

I guess Mary Todd Lincoln said to Abe that day, “Would it kill you to take me to a play once in a while?”

Turchin discusses Lincoln’s election not in terms of slavery, but in terms of economic misery combined with lots of rich dudes.  Turchin adds in that the failing financial health of a country adds to this, lowering the legitimacy of the state.

These factors, Turchin notes, in every case that they’ve covered, always reach a breaking point within 200 years or so.  This is in line with Strauss and Howe in The Fourth Turning and the theories of the unfortunately named Sir John Glubb:

End of Empires, PEZ, and Decadence

It’s here that the Turchin takes a bit of time to discuss the nature of the American Empire, circa 2023.  American power, he notes, isn’t based on religion.  It likewise isn’t based on a militaristic history – although we’ve elected generals as president, the power of the American Empire is and always has been commerce.  We sent trade ships in the 1800s across the world.  Genghis Khan didn’t create his empire with trade, he created it with the sword and the horse and by having sex with half of the women in Asia.  While the English used liberal amounts of gunpowder creating their empire, “I say, old chap, what are those Boer people doing sitting on our gold and diamonds?”, they were a commerce-based empire as well.

Me?  I was upset when I got a pack of sticky playing cards for Christmas – I found them difficult to deal with.

I’d agree with Turchin – American power has been economic and, like the British before us, created an economic empire.  The wealth from that economic empire thus created the ability for us to have really cool tanks and planes and aircraft carriers and nuclear weapons.  No bucks?  No Buck Rodgers.

Since it has been economics that created the empire, it’s economics that fuels it today:  America is built on economics, and the biggest controllers of that are . . . rich people.  As much as I’m in favor of capitalism (which is a lot) I can see that a system where the rich people get to make the rules is gonna suck for everyone else.

Turchin calls this the “Wealth Pump” – it’s the idea that the rules are set up not for the common citizen, but for the really rich dudes.  What are some of the components of this Wealth Pump?

  • Keeping a surplus of workers so that wages are lower. Unrestricted illegal (and legal) immigration?  It’s perfect to keep wages down.
  • What happens when we are need other workers than the illegals?  Let’s cut all trade barriers so that a programmer in the United States has to compete with a programmer in Bangladesh.  There won’t be any consequences from that, right?
  • Larger companies that have greater pull – Steve Jobs said, before he died, obviously, that he couldn’t make Apple® again – there were too many barriers in place. Many don’t realize that large number of “consumer” or “environmental” regulations are actually welcomed by large businesses – they’re a barrier to entry and competition.

This is what the Wealth Pump looks like.

That the impact of the Wealth Pump is misery is a given.  While (once upon a time) I was a libertarian, I’ve since moved on from that, as they’ve moved farther in support of this wealth pump.  Freedom doesn’t come with mere economic freedom, and it doesn’t come from only from freedom from government coercion.  Does it, in the end, matter if it is a group of elites in government or a group of elites at Google™ is the one censoring you to preserve the wealth pump?

Thus ends the first part of this review.  More to come.  I’m not sure if it will be one or two more posts, but we’ll get through it.

I’m a trained professional.  Unlike paint-chip-eating Barbara F. Walter.

(FYI, when I get this finished I’m posting a link to it at Turchin’s blog.  He’s got a better book contract, but I’ve got more readers.)

Stability: On A Scale Of Zero To Drunken Uncle, How Bad Is The United States?

“As a result, our planet’s core became unstable.” – Man of Steel

I was on a horse being chased by a lion, and on my left was a giraffe.  I decided to stop drinking and get off the carousel. 

I’ve been giving a lot of thought to what makes a country stable, recently.  I just can’t figure out why the idea of civilizational collapse keeps popping up in my mind, but, it does.

Why does a country remain stable?  Not wealthy, but stable.

One rudimentary idea is commonality.  Commonality of what, exactly?  Be careful, this gets progressively more controversial as we go down the list and moves from “Taco Bell® mild sauce” to “Scorpion Chili Reaper Death™”.

As nearly as I can figure it, three things.  There are more, but I think history has shown that these three things, when held in common, produce the most stable societies:

Religion.  I know that most readers live in the United States, which was founded on freedom from state religion.  That way Pennsylvania could choose to make Episcopalianism the state religion.  Regardless of that, the United States was historically very much a Christian nation, as in historically 90% plus, and in “you can’t get a mortgage unless your pastor vouches for your” Christian.

I have standards.  I won’t talk publicly about my sects life.

Have divisions among Christian sects caused difficulty?  Certainly.  Look at Europe post-Martin Luther and the religious wars that followed.  There are even problems within sects, given what I once saw a beheading at a Methodist potluck dinner over a stolen potato salad recipe.  To be fair, the potato salad was really, really good.  I think it was the mustard.

But back to American politics:  when JFK was running for president, there was a strong feeling that he wouldn’t be a good president because he was Catholic.  Why?  Because Catholics had to obey the Pope, and JFK would have something other than the best interests of the American people at heart – the orders of a foreign Pope.  After JFK, religion seemed to not matter so much in a presidential candidate, especially after Bill Clinton, a member of the 1st Congregation of If It Feels Good, Do It (Reformed), was elected.

Can people of different religions live together?  Sometimes, especially if the religions in question aren’t, well, Islam and Christianity.  Or Islam and Judaism.  Or Islam and Buddhism.  Or . . . hmm, I’m seeing a pattern here.

Is a radical Islamic cowboy a yeehawdist?

It’s weird when I bring up a topic that I know is going to be contentious and I mention religion first on the list of controversial topics, but that should tell you about the minefield that follows.

The second leg of a stable society is Ideology.  If we all believe the world through the same framework, that helps to create stability.  A bad example of that is North Korea.  North Korea is actually a really, really stable country for several reasons.  Do they share the same religion?  Certainly they do – the worship of Kim Jong Un.

They also share the same ideology.  Do all of them like it?  I’m fairly certain that the answer is no, but for most of them it is the only ideology they know, and the only ideology they’ve been taught.  They might see problems, but they have no particular framework where they could even discuss them.  If you asked them what they thought about Kim, they’d say, “I can’t complain”.

Shared ideology allowed he Soviet Union to live long past the best-by date printed on the carton for several reasons – again, it was the only real ideology presented, and second, through the 20th Century Russia went from a Czar and a bunch of peasants to a nation with nukes and a pretty good spaceflight program that the German scientists they captured gave them.  I mean, our Germans were better, but they still had pretty good Germans.

Remember, to an orphan, every selfie is a family photo.

How big was ideology in the United States?  My grandfather-in-law was nearly 95 when we went to a meeting.  They asked us all to stand for the prayer.  He sat.  No one thought anything of it.  When it came time to give the pledge, though, he struggled to his feet to stand.

He had an ideology – and it was the United States and the 8th Army Air Corps, specifically the one that Ronald Reagan talked about in his speeches.  That ideology, his Civic Nationalism, was so strong in him that it was even stronger than his religion and gravity.

Ideology really is at fault for the Revolutionary War and the Civil War – both of them were from a fairly homogeneous population base, but the major difference was ideology.  In the Civil War, especially, the ideology was one of an honor-culture (the South) versus the Puritan culture of the North.  The North knows how to do iced tea, and the South knows how to do biscuits and gravy.

Outside of food, the South chaffed against the Puritan leanings of the North, and that ended up in war, because that’s what happens when you have a people whose culture is based on honor pushed back up against the wall.  Because the religions and ethnicity of the sides were similar, the result was a nation that could be knit back together rather rapidly.

Can I tell you what ethnicity Napoleon was?  Course I can.

Oh, yeah, ethnicity.  The final leg of the stool is ethnicity.  See!  I told you it was going to get progressively more radioactive.

The long period of stability that the United States has experienced (with the exception of the Civil War) provided a false narrative – the idea that the United States is a proposition nation, and that everyone who came here would be assimilated and become American.

This is demonstrably false.

I still maintain that it takes three generations for a new immigrant family to really be assimilated, minimum.  If Mom and Dad aren’t willing to name their kid Brandon instead of Hans or Abdullah or Chaim, they really haven’t reached American status yet.  That used to be called assimilation, and it used to be generally considered to be good.

But not in 2023.  Back in the ‘teen, Tom Brokaw had to apologize for suggesting that Hispanics had to work harder at assimilating to American culture.  He had violated a new Leftist commandment that “Absolutely Everyone Doing Absolutely Anything” was defined as American.

Oh, and America doesn’t have a culture, bigot.

Of the three, I think ethnicity is generally (though not always) the strongest.  The Danes might not agree on everything, but do they agree that someone who moved to Denmark from Afghanistan isn’t Danish.  I could move to Japan, have kids there, and I would never be Japanese and neither would my kids.

All of this leads to what?

China is built on stability – it has a common religion – Communism, a common ideology, “what Xi said”, and a common ethnicity.  When people point to a coming Chinese collapse, I point to articles from the last 30 years that have said the same thing.  My bet:  China is stable – it may not prosper, but it will endure.

Ireland?  Not so much.  It used to be homogeneous in ethnicity, religion, and ideology, if ideology can be summarized by the statement “drinking and fighting a bit”.  But with a constant influx of immigrants who apparently have the ideology of “stabbing Irish kids is fine” it is clear that the future of Ireland is in doubt, less so if they start drinking and fighting a lot more.

What’s Irish and stays outside all year?  Paddy O’Furniture.

Finally, on the other side of the spectrum, there’s the United States.  Viewed through this model, it’s clear:  we have lost our common religion – in 2009, 77% of Americans were Christian.  By 2019?  Down to 65% (Pew®).

Ideology?  The United States had been relatively homogeneous with respect to ideology, too.  Compare the 1950s to the Leftist onslaught we’ve seen 70 years later.  We are a nation divided ideologically.

Ethnicity?  Thanks to the 1965 Immigration Act along with an amazing disregard for borders over the last 30 years, the United States has experienced an amazing increase in the amount of foreign-born people here, and that amount is estimated at 15%, but I’m betting that number is far closer to 25% because I believe the number of illegals is greatly understated in official numbers.

None, exactly zero, of these indicators lead me to believe that the United States will be stable for the next 30 years or can continue to exist as a coherent country.  I’ve mentioned before that I thought the earliest dates for Bad Thing to happen were in the next 2 or 3 years.  My prediction of everything breaking apart remains at 2032 or so, but I see no hope, at all, of the United States existing beyond 2040 unless a Caesar appears at the point of crisis or unless millions of immigrants are sent via trebuchet back to whatever place they came from.

To be clear, I don’t wish for any of this, this is just what every trend is leading towards, and this model is an “in progress” model.  Your additions are welcome in the comments.

The good news?

I hear the Methodists now take a hard line on potato salad beheadings, which is odd, since they’re normally not against anything.

Two Types Of Society. There Is Proof We Have A Choice.

“There are two types of people in this world:  people who like Neil Diamond, and people who don’t.” – What About Bob

A man threatened me with a coffee cup and stole my wallet.  I guess I got mugged.

There are two types of cultures.  One of them looks a bit like this:

I was walking in Silver Dollar City® more than a decade ago.  It was spring, and Silver Dollar City™ was an amusement park where we could take the kids and visit attractions, and even though they weren’t even teenagers, there were plenty of rides for them.

As we were walking through the park, a young blonde man of 18 or so ran up behind me.  It wasn’t a sprint, but the easy strides of a high school football player in top shape – like Michelle Obama, the kid looked like a linebacker.  “Sir, sir!”

I turned around.  “Yeah, how can I help you?”

“You dropped this.”

What did Mike Tyson say to Vincent van Gogh?  “Are you gonna eat that?” (meme as found)

The kid handed me two $20 bills.  This is unusual, since normally I have to at least pull up my shirt for anyone to give me $40 so I’ll put the shirt back down.

I stuttered, “Th-thank you!”  I felt in my pocket, and, sure enough there were two twenties that must have followed my hand out of the pocket like a structured thought sneaking out of Joe Biden’s head.

The blonde kid smiled, waved, and ran off before I could even offer him a fiver for his honesty.  And, thinking about it, he might have been offended if I offered him money.  I know I’ve turned cash down before for similar acts of honesty or help.

You don’t do it for the reward.  You don’t do it for the glory.  You don’t do it for the free shrimp and talcum powder.  You do it because it’s the right thing to do.  Period.

That’s one type of society.

This type of society functions pretty well.  The prices (back then) at Silver Dollar City™ were much lower than at other attractions of a similar nature that I’d been to.  The park itself was clean and tidy, and every local business was polite.  Did they want our dollars?  Sure they did, but they were great about wanting to come by them honestly.  They wanted to earn my money.

That’s the way that Modern Mayberry is, mostly.

Sheriff Taylor retired to a farm, so he could see Barn every day.

But San Francisco?  Wow.

I haven’t been there in almost a decade, but the pictures I’ve seen recently show a city that’s not in decline.  It’s in free-fall.  In Modern Mayberry I always lock my car doors because it’s a habit from living in big cities.  In San Francisco?  People don’t lock their cars.

People don’t lock their car doors (and many leave their trunks open) so prospective thieves can see that there’s nothing to steal without breaking the windows of the cars to rummage around themselves.  The people have surrendered to the criminals.

Porch pirates are everywhere in SF, and steal whatever they can.  People live on the streets in tents, and often defecate and do drugs in public, because, why not?

San Francisco is also leading the nation in stores disappearing or locking up all of their items.  Why?  Because mobs loot the stores, in broad daylight.  If the thief is caught, they’re immediately released.  The only solution for a store that wants to be in business is to sell you the item, go get it from a locked room, and then give it to you after you’ve already paid.

Want to watch Mad Max:  Fury Road in the most realistic way possible?  Go to San Francisco.

Lefties, I’m sure, have plenty of theories for why San Francisco is like this.  White privilege.  Institutional racism.  Failure to provide mental health services.  Lack of reparations.  It’s Wednesday.  Spin a wheel and pick an excuse.  But every one of them is a lie.  And I can prove it.

How?

Go look at the streets today where President Xi of China will be when he travels San Francisco.  The homeless are gone.  Crime is gone.  The streets aren’t covered in poop and needles and Disney™ products.

If the city of San Francisco can do that for Xi, it means that they can do it.  Even Governor Gavin “Plastic Man” Newsom said the quiet part out loud:

“I know folks say, ‘Oh, they’re just cleaning up this place because all those fancy leaders are coming into town.’  That’s because it’s true.”

A poll was taken by California Governor Gavin Newsom’s office which asked whether people who live in California think Illegal immigration is a serious problem.  29% of respondents answered: “Yes, It is a serious problem.  71% of respondents answered: “No es una problema seriosa.”

Guess he wants to impress people that don’t live there.

San Francisco doesn’t have to be like it is.

The only reason that San Francisco is a horrifying dump is because people want it to be a horrifying dump.  As I’ve said before, the solution is obvious (We Already Know The Solutions).  Criminals need to value the gain they make from a crime less than they fear the penalty for when they get caught.  That’s it.  The equation is simple.

We know exactly what we need to do to solve almost any problem.  And, as is on display right now, the Powers in San Francisco know exactly what solution is required to solve this problem.  But they don’t, or at least limit the solution to times when world dignitaries visit – the effort for just common people is too much.

I wouldn’t worry about it.  It was a he said/Xi said situation.

Why, exactly do they allow a kleptocracy to fester in California?

  • They don’t like guns. Guns have been the great equalizer
  • They will ruthlessly target and destroy common citizens who defend themselves or their property because in their minds only the State should be able to wield force to protect itself.
  • There is no punishment of the criminals, because they’re a favored voting group.

Probably the biggest reason is this:

  • They want the people to be scared. They want the people to feel helpless, as if there’s nothing they can do and they don’t care how much money it costs you.  They want to use this to get just a little more power.

That’s it.  The reason for the kleptonomics on the street is because it serves those who could fix the problem.

Me?  I’ll take Silver Dollar City© and Modern Mayberry any day.

Snapshots Of The Economic Collapse

“I’m the source of all your misery?  Who closed the store to play hockey?  Who closed the store to go to a wake?” – Clerks

I found a store that only sells donuts, bagels, and macaroni.  It’s called Hole Foods.

Misery is a state of being includes suffering, but suffering is short.  Misery is like suffering crossed with my ex-wife talking about my faults:  it goes on and on and never seems to stop.

Misery is OJ.

OJ is up.  And you don’t need to be worried about your throat being sliced open followed by a weird car chase, because in this case it’s not Orenthal James, it’s Orange Juice.  Since 2020, OJ has gone up in price by 315%, while Orenthal James probably hasn’t killed anyone in that time period.  Here’s the graph:

What’s the difference between O.J. Simpson and the movie Caddyshack?  One had a Bronco pursuit and the other one had a Chevy Chase.

It’s not like there’s a shortage of OJ, because if there was, I’d expect to see a shortage of vodka, too, and there’s no shortage of vodka, I mean, not that I’d know.  But when orange juice is headed through the moon, I expect to look around and see Eddie Murphy and Dan Ackroyd swapping a dollar on a bet.

I suppose that orange juice isn’t required for living, but you have to live somewhere.  I was talking to an acquaintance the other day, and he mentioned his kid had graduated from college and had a job in a major metropolitan area – not one that’s known for being expensive, mind you.  The apartment building is probably in a sketchier neighborhood because he mentioned it was gated.  The rent?  $1,700 a month.  For a fresh college grad and his spouse.

How many ants to fill an apartment?  Ten ants.

Ouch!  They’re probably not saving a lot of money, fresh college grads, at that level.  Is it any wonder that the birth rate for folks who contribute to the economy is down?  Who has money to have a baby when you have to cough up $1,700 a month, before utilities, to live in a neighborhood that requires walls and gates to be safe?  I guess that’s where the vodka comes in . . . vodka:  overriding good judgement in child bearing since 1405.

The impact of rent has been bad, but housing prices have done the youth of our country no favor, either.  It has long been my thought that people shouldn’t make themselves poor by buying a house, and, yet, they do, with the exception of Joe Biden, who has made buying the White House pretty lucrative.

Not my meme, but you can tell it’s classy by the “FF” in “PROFFIT”.  At least he’s doing well in this economy . . . 

It seems like the market is rigged to extract the maximum amount of money out of the people consuming housing, especially when compared with the 1950s when a single manufacturing income could afford a decent home for a family.  I can’t imagine a rent of $1,700 as a new college grad – that’s more than I’m paying right now on my existing mortgage.  I know that $1,700 sounds like Heaven to those of you living on the coasts, but this is a mid-tier southwestern town.

Houses have gotten worse.  In August, the average asking price in the United States was $445,000.   Due to inflation and interest rates, the average price that a purchaser could afford was $356,000.  This is an obvious recipe for deflation in housing prices in any other economy.  But in 2023?

How do Millennials fireproof their home?  By never owning one.

And, yet, there’s a housing shortage.  How could that be?

Could it be that millions and millions of people have hopped the border since 2000?  The minimum is 6,300,000 since Biden became Resident.  Minimum.  It’s likely that the number is much higher, and it’s nearly certain that tens of millions of illegals have poured across the border since 2000.  Want cheap housing?  You’re competing against people who often don’t pay taxes, live many families to a dwelling, and, when finally given the opportunity, will vote far Left to elect people who want us to eat the bugs and live in the pods.

In any previous world, we have the makings of an economic catastrophe:

  • Unlimited labor,
  • Massive cash printing,
  • Mass illegal immigration into crowded cities,
  • Bidens,
  • Housing shortages, and
  • Skyrocketing food prices.

What’s happening is that the things that are required to live, food and shelter, are becoming very, very expensive.  The blame is mainly left at the feet of the United States’ government and the Federal Reserve Bank®, but there’s more to go around.  McDonald’s© is selling a Big Mac® meal around Modern Mayberry for about $9.  That’s ludicrous for what you get in both quality and quantity, but that’s what it costs.  On the East Coast, it’s $16.  Here at the locally owned butcher shop, a very, very good ribeye from a local cow is $12.95 a pound.  Take your pick:  meat® on a bun™ or juicy, delicious steak?

YMMV, but for me that’s an easy choice.

My doctor suggested I eat at Burger King®.  I know, technically, he said, “no more McDonald’s®”, but I know what he meant.

But what about McDonald’s©?  Surely they must be having a McAwful™ day to have to raise prices that high.  Nah.  Their stock price is doing fine and they’re making lots of money – they beat the profit that Wall Street thought they were going to make.  McDonald’s® isn’t hit by inflation – they can just (at least until now) make everyone else pay.  That probably won’t last, but it sure is miserable for many now.

To summarize, the things that are required to live are going up.  The misery created by the current bad set of choices by bankers and elected officials is real, and getting worse by the day.  So, tonight, let’s put all of our worries aside and enjoy a television show about a bunch of hot people who are rich and successful!

Enthusiasm or Passion? Choose Passion.

“In fact, it had been observed by some, that the Hobbits’ only passion was food; a rather unfair observation as we have also developed a keen interest in the brewing of ales.” – Fellowship of the Ring

Why don’t they teach sailors how to swim?  So they will defend the ship with more enthusiasm.

I hate enthusiasm.  I really do.

Enthusiasm is motivational posters.  Enthusiasm is a group of cheerleaders chanting out “H-U-S-T-L-E, hustle, hustle for victory!” when the football team is down by 25 points in the fourth quarter.  It’s pretending to be excited in a job interview.

Enthusiasm has always been a bit (as the kids today would say) cringe to me.  It really does make the skin crawl on my spine when I think about the mindless enthusiasm that I see in the world.

Why?

Because it’s generally fake.  It’s not based in any sort of reality – it’s a series of mindless platitudes that don’t mean anything or show any true or real commitment.  Enthusiasm is what I see from political candidates when they’re at their most smarmy and useless.  Oh, wait, that’s every day for them.

Like I said, I hate enthusiasm.

But I love passion.

Cattle don’t cheer, but I heard that they give encowregment.

Passion is real, it’s deep, and it’s not at all afraid of Truth.  Passion is the part of you that keeps you playing in that football game when you’re down by 25 points in the fourth quarter.  Passion is the fire inside of you.

When I was in high school, every year the wrestling coach would have a parents’ meeting at the start of the season.  As a part of the meeting, he’d have a demonstration match between two of his wrestlers.  I was lucky enough to appear in the two of those matches, one held my junior year and one held my senior year.  I think he did it to get the parents excited about the season.

In my junior year, I was wrestling a senior that was stronger and better than me – my only claim to fame was that I outweighed him by 15 or so pounds.  When we started the match, he slipped on a throw and ended up on his back – I got the takedown plus two back points before he reversed me.  He won the match 5-4.

It was the best I ever wrestled against him.

I’ve never met The Rock, but I heard he was shy.  I guess I would have expected him to be a Little Boulder.

The next year I was the senior wrestling a junior who outweighed me by about 35 pounds.  Right before the match, he said to me, “Wilder, please don’t pin me in front of everyone.”

My response?  “Jimmy, if I can pin you, I will.  This is wrestling.”

There was, in my mind, no half-measure in a wrestling match.  To go easy on someone stepping out on to the mat would, in my mind, then and now, be cheating.  I was passionate about wrestling, and the mat was sacred to me – you’re out there just you and another man, going toe to toe, and every second you spend on the mat in a real match you give it everything you have.

That, in my mind, is passion, though you might just say, “Wilder’s just a tool” and you wouldn’t be wrong.  But to not pin Jimmy if I could, well, that would be cheating the sport.  It wasn’t personal, it was the simple principle that every time, every single time I went on the mat it was deadly serious to me – I gave every single bit of myself.  To do less than I could?  That would be a lie.

I asked for no quarter, and I gave no quarter.  Jimmy was still my friend afterwards,

I bought a tie for my dog to wear on our walks.  He looks sharp when he does his business.

I think passion is like that.  It’s a drive from the core of your being – it’s not about trying to be something, it’s who you are.  Passion alone is an amazing thing, and allows peak performance.

The other variable is talent.  Just by my body’s geometry I’m unsuited to some sports.  Long distance running?  Probably not with these short Viking legs and long Norse torso.  Lifting very heavy things?

That’s more like it.

Talent is also unfairly distributed.  I’ve seen people who have zero talent for something throw their entire lives, passionately into an activity.  Ma Wilder was passionate about art.  And, I still have some of the landscapes she did as oil paintings.  When it came to landscapes, she had a gift.

But when it came to people?  Ma was Modern Museum of Bad Art bad at drawing people.

The one on the right looks like the clues I get in Pictionary®.

Add talent to passion?

That’s where “world class” comes in to existence, because passion is the only thing that can keep a man driving himself to his limit day after day.  The best concert violinists practice more than the average ones, not less.  Their talent plus passion is what creates that world class performance.  Talent alone?  You get a collection of people that all fall into the “could have been” category, gifted people who didn’t have the passion to turn that gift into world class performance.

Working hard, day after day, year after year, is what it takes to be great at anything.  Raw talent isn’t enough.

Fake enthusiasm?  No thanks.  It’s time to get passionate and angry about something.

Me?  I’m starting with raisins.  Man, they piss me off.

IQ, Lies, and National Wealth

“Now there’s a fine choice for intelligent offspring.” – Star Trek, TOS

Is it just me, or does Biden’s only expression convey, “Now why did I walk into this room again?”

I once was in a meeting with one of my son’s clubs. One of the kids came over, “You know, John Wilder, I am very smart.” The kid was a junior in high school. “Really, Zeke? That’s great! Are you planning on going to college?”

“Yes, I think I might want to teach history,” Zeke replied.

“Wonderful! How did you do on the ACT?” I asked. The ACT is a test that measures both a student’s preparedness for college as well as the ability of their parents to pay for the test. I’ve heard a rumor that colleges like money.

Zeke told me his score, and I tossed it into the Internet. The nice thing about the Internet is that it has lots of data related to testing and IQ. Pretty quickly, I correlated Zeke’s ACT score with his IQ. This isn’t a perfect correlation, but it’s close enough.

Zeke’s IQ was (within a margin of error) about 85 according to his ACT scores. Is this correlation perfectly accurate? No. But it’s probably close enough and I didn’t think his parents would be happy if I kidnapped him and forced him to take an actual IQ test.

I once got a C on a Roman numeral test.

An IQ of 85 isn’t horrible. It does, however, mean that roughly 275,000,000 people in the United States have a higher IQ than Zeke. It doesn’t make them more moral than Zeke, and it doesn’t make them better people than Zeke, but they do learn more quickly and process information much faster than Zeke. Plenty of people with an IQ of 85 have had happy, productive lives.

But people with higher IQs than Zeke can also learn concepts that Zeke simply cannot. On one website it says that people with an IQ of 85 can . . . “complete any (college) course.”

This is a lie.

No one could honestly tell me that I could sprint as fast as an NFL® receiver. Nor should they, because that would be a lie. No one could honestly tell me that if I worked really hard at it, I could grow two more inches taller.

Do taller people sleep longer in bed?

The fact is that IQ isn’t like knowledge – I can study and learn more, but I can’t increase the overall processing speed I was born with. Just as if I never ran, I’d be slower than if I practiced, I can certainly do plenty of things to degrade that information processing capacity. But just like there’s a physical limit to how fast I can run, there’s a physical limit to how fast I can think and the number of things I can hold in my mind.

That’s the thing that most people miss about IQ – it follows the same bell curve that most human attributes follow – height, speed, strength. If anyone told Zeke he was five inches taller than he was, he would have laughed. But people told him he was smart, and he believed that.

I can understand how that might seem to the compassionate thing to do – to tell someone that they’re smart. The downside of that is simple – if Zeke feels like he’s smart because everyone told him he was just as smart as anyone else, what happens when he doesn’t have the success that other people have?

Will I be successful with my glass coffin business? Remains to be seen.

He becomes resentful. He sees others succeeding because of things he can’t fathom happening around him. What, then, must be the reason that other people are successful? They must have some sort of system that is rigged against Zeke.

If it were just Zeke, it still wouldn’t be okay to have this compassionate “participation-trophy” lie. It has consequences for him.

On a societal level, however, we’re busy sending people off to college that have no real business being there. The result is a large number of people in society today who think that they have all the tools necessary to be exceptionally successful at intellectual pursuits and it’s just not so. This creates a society-wide level of bitterness. It’s especially bad when those college kids with no intellectual prospects get worthless degrees (if it ends in “studies” it’s a worthless degree) and are then saddled with huge amounts of student loan debt.

Why is it hard to fight corruption in the United States? Because he controls the FBI.

And, since intelligence is mostly heritable (as proven again and again), it’s likely that these kids like Zeke have a parent (or, less likely, parents) that are also not as bright. Identical twins have virtually identical IQs, even when growing up separately. Nature matters a lot more than nurture. One statistic I read back in the day was that student performance in verbal IQ was tied to the number of books in the home of the parents. This mattered (again, as I recall) much more than the number of minutes the parents read to their children.

Society has a very, very particular relationship with the concept of the heritability of intelligence so much so that this is a huge hot button issue. Certain incentives in our current system encourage mothers of lesser intelligence to have even more not-so-bright babies. This is, of course, as featured in the documentary movie Idiocracy. Since this idea has such significant implications, not the least of which is the fate of nations: smart nations do better than, um, less bright ones. Here’s the data:

I’ve heard that talking to yourself is a sign of intelligence – at least that’s what I keep telling myself.

The data is from the book IQ and the Wealth of Nations, so it dates back to before they year 2000, as far as I can tell. That really shouldn’t matter much, since the relationship is so strong. Smarter countries are richer – a lot richer.

We’re entering a period of time where resources will be far more constrained than at any point in my lifetime. We’re entering a time where we will have no choice but to stop lying to ourselves about IQ and its impact.

And when I die, I do want my ashes put into a participation trophy. I think I’ve urned it.

Great News: Everything’s Going Wrong!

“If we can stop him, we shall prevent the collapse of Western civilization.  No pressure.” – Sherlock Holmes:  A Game of Shadows

How many contractors does it take to screw in a light bulb?  I’ll let you know when I get one to call me back.

Many times we look at a mess, and think, “Well, that’s just so broken that nothing, nothing will ever be okay again.”  That would describe my first marriage.  I don’t write more about that bad marriages because bad marriages aren’t all that interesting unless it’s in Florida and involves an alligator, meth, and a Clinton.  Besides, it’s over.

So, did it really matter?

In my case, yes.

When I sat back after it was all concluded, one of the things that I did was really think about it, and try to figure out what (if anything) that I had done wrong in the marriage.  On hindsight, there was plenty that I did wrong.  Though I’d love to blame it all on her since , I certainly played my part.  In the end, I knew I’d never find anyone like my ex-wife again.  Of course, that was my goal.

There I was, recently divorced, in debt, underwater on my house, and with a stack of bills that were immediately due.  It was the worst place I’d ever been in my life, with the exception of being married to my ex.  Why are divorces expensive?  They’re worth it.

Do divorcing stoners get joint custody?

I realize now that this wasn’t as bad as I thought it was then, but back then it looked like a jet had crashed into my life.

What did I do?

I put one foot in front of the other, met The Mrs., paid off my bills (that took four years), had first one kid and then another, and sold the house right as the housing boom was taking off.  None of this was predictable to me at the time of the divorce.

But this isn’t about me.

What kind of eel hits your eye like a big pizza pie?  That’s a moray.

When you look at, say, Japan in 1945, it was almost worse than my divorce.  Almost.  The land had been nuked, bombed, and about 4%, nearly one out of twenty, of the Japanese population had been killed in the war.  Their industry had been devastated; their army dismantled, their anime undrawn.

So, they gave up.

No, just kidding.  They didn’t give up.  They buckled down and became the economic growth story, leading the world in the production of quality cars and electronics by the early 1970s, just a little over a generation after the end of the war and the devastation.

You could not have predicted that Japan would have been so successful that by the late 1980s people were expecting it to have an economy that many felt would soon be larger than the economy of the United States.  Luckily, the Japanese discovered mascot suits, and have settled back into being one of the largest, most functional, highest standard of living places in the world who is also a bit crazy.

Why did U-Boats in World War II have dogs as mascots?  So they could have a sub woofer.

The point remains – you cannot guess the end by the beginning.

As I look around the world now, I see a world that is filled with conflict, some of which is horrifying.  Some of the conflict threatens to change the entire world balance of power.  Some of the cataclysmic changes we’ve seen in society have ripped apart the basis for stability of the atom of society – the family and have created new structures that are actively against every virtue and celebrate their opposites.

All of that is true.  And yet, I still am optimistic.  Why?  Because, when I look back through history, we’ve driven to the cliff, again and again and even tried to jump off.  When the Roman Empire fell because of many of the same things ailing Western Civilization today, the game wasn’t over.  Europe rebounded and eventually (after a lot of struggle) reached heights that had never been seen before in the history of mankind.  The setback of the fall of the Roman Empire had been the catalyst for the rebirth of Europe.

Was everything the same?

No.  But the foundations for a stable society that can create wealth, freedom, and exemplify virtue haven’t changed since civilization itself was formed.  These things are necessary.  Humans have changed since civilization started, but the basic things that motivate us and keep us going when it’s cold and dark out haven’t:  the things that give us hope are family, religion, and the will to create – something far more than just the will to survive – amoeba and Leftists can do that.

These things don’t include so much of what we see being indoctrinated into the culture today, things that are anti-child, anti-family, and anti-life.  These are now being celebrated as virtues, and it’s devastating and causes civilization to unravel.

Surely that burning oil could have created a full tank?

This unravelling, however, will end up being the basis of something new and wonderful:  although all great civilizations rhyme, they don’t have to look exactly the same.  I really believe that, perhaps, the greatest and most golden age of humanity may be before us, rather than behind us.

You really can’t see it now in a world that’s falling apart because of the absolute inversion of values, but I assure you, it’s there.  We will win.  Deep down, Kipling knew it over 100 years ago when he penned The Gods of the Copybook Headings (which I’ll trot out once more, full poem below).

We cannot lose because those values that make civilization worth living have nothing to do with the cultural change being forced down our throats.  The irony is that, by weakening our culture they bring their defeat closer to them, faster.  Hormone treatment of children has not, is not, and will never be a way to create a stable society.  It is, in fact, a way to create a crushed number of people that are so broken and confused inside that there is no way that they can create any sort of civilization.

No, everything is breaking apart, and it will lead, inevitably, to the next stage, which is going to be wonderful, though the route won’t be easy.  Be of good cheer.  I’ll put it in better hands than mine to point out what’s coming:

The Gods of the Copybook Headings, by Rudyard Kipling

As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.

We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “Stick to the Devil you know.”

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “The Wages of Sin is Death.”

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “If you don’t work you die.”

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool’s bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

Bikinis, Garbage Loans, And Fishy Finance

“A 30-year mortgage at Michael’s age essentially means that he’s buying a coffin. Now, if I were buying my coffin, I would get one with thicker walls.” – The Office

Most garbage workers don’t get official training.  They pick it up as they go along.

The Big Solution to the Great Recession was printing lots of money.  I would have (back then) thought that it would have hit the economy all at once.  In reality, what the Federal Reserve® and the Treasury did was send all that money they printed off to the banks.

The banks didn’t lend it.  They kept it on the books, and in fact many of them redeposited their free money with the Fed™.  In reality, the Fed© was scared about was the entire system locking up.  It was pretty bad in 2009 – basic chemicals that were necessary (say, sulfuric acid) for a basic, functioning economy just stopped production.

No one knew who had money, or who would have money.  As one friend of mine noted at the time, “When the tide goes out, you finally see who isn’t wearing swimming trunks.”

My office above a bank, my assets over tens of millions of dollars.

The inflation stayed “within target” for the Fed™, flipping up and down around 2% during the decade following.  Again, with all of the money printed, I expected it to be more, and I still don’t trust the official government figures on inflation since that would be like trusting a used-car salesman on that gently used 1995 Ford Taurus© with only 350,000 miles on it.

COVID was the final straw, though.  People produced less stuff, so there was a lower supply.  The government printed a lot more money and then gave it to everyone, who most definitely didn’t save it, and in fact bid prices up on everything.  Making nothing and buying everything?

Inflation.  Or my ex-wife.

Inflation finally triggered interest rates to go up.  That posed a problem for the banks.  Let’s take me:  I have a small mortgage left on Stately Wilder Manor.  I’m in no hurry to pay it off because I can get a CD for 5.5%, but my mortgage is only 4%.

How did Metallica stop people from pirating their music?  They started releasing garbage.

My mortgage is worth less to the banks now than I owe on it – if I were another bank, they’d sell it to me for less than I owe.  That’s a problem for banks that have exposure to mortgages and didn’t sell them off or hedge them.

It’s not just mortgages – Silicon Valley Bank® decided to invest in lots of long-term bonds and such because inflation had been so low.  Buy a corporate bond yielding 4%, pay depositors 1%, and profit!

But when interest rates started heading upward, the same sort of math as with the bank that owns my mortgage applies – what used to be worth $100 is now only worth, say, $80.  Oops.  When the people who put hundreds of millions of dollars into the bank, money that wasn’t insured, find out?

Bank funs.  Er, bank runs.

And it’s gone . . .

How bad was it?  Of the $172 billion deposited at the bank, only 11% was covered by deposit insurance.  I imagine that there were quite a few tense billionaires like Oprah worried that she’d have to get a job at the McDonald’s® drive through, and how could she resist those perfectly salty fries?

Since billionaires were in danger, the FDIC immediately said, “Rules?  Who needs those.  All money is safe in Bartertown!”

My initial expectation is that we’d see more bank failures right around now as interest rates increased and the piles of garbage on the balance sheets of the banks started to rot.  Instead?  Banks are still (I believe) happily lending money borrowed by the Fed™.

How do they do it?  They manage to do it by having the Fed© allow them to mark their assets to what they paid for them, not what they’re worth.  So, they’re lying.  I’m fairly certain the Fed™ is buying this stuff to get it off the balance sheets of the banks and lending them more money whenever they don’t have enough caviar.

Does the Sturgeon General recommend caviar?

The rot, though, is still there – it’s only a matter of who pays for the rot.  Debt always gets paid, the old saying goes, either by the borrower or by the lender.  I do know of two local businesses that are going bankrupt.  Their debt is what drove the bankruptcy.  My guess is that, combined, they have a debt of a million and a half dollars (or so).  Who will pay it?  In the end, the lender will.

I think that might be at least part of the big jump in debt that the United States owes.  As interest rates go up, Uncle Sam is acting like a raccoon and jumping straight into the trash can to eat the garbage loans and bonds that the banks had to throw out because they were stinking up the fridge.  Here’s proof:

England doesn’t have a kidney bank, but it does have a Liverpool.

Eventually, printing lots and lots of money is like a magic trick the magician does one too many times and everyone sees how it works.  Will it work this time?

Unrelated, frequent commenter Ray notes this Give Send Go.  I’ll let him explain more. GiveSendGo – Loco Needs Divorce from Prostate: The Leader in Freedom Fundraising.

Globalism, Computer Chips, And Breast Implants

“Bart, the Internet is more than a global pornography network.” – The Simpsons

Biden shooting the Chinese Spy Balloon® is the only thing he’s done to fight inflation so far.

It’s all about the chain.

A global supply chain has some attributes.  Just like money is freely (in most cases) able to cross borders, in a global system labor can cross borders as well, without ever having to leave home.  People in (spins wheel) Bangladesh work for $0.0010 an hour sewing soccer balls?  If they’re as productive (per dollar) as having a machine and skilled operator in the United States do it, the work went to Bangladesh.

This is (if you’re in Bangladesh) probably a good thing since your alternative was farming spider webs or whatever it is that people in Bangladesh eat.  In theory, it’s good for the company that sells soccer balls, since they can (not saying they will, but they can) price them lower, and still produce a profit.  It also would appeal to the women who play soccer while their husbands are in the kitchen doing the dishes in Europe.

Why did the Italian join Tinder®?  He was provalonely.

But what it doesn’t do is help the highly-skilled guy who used to make them in a non-spider web eating country.  In fact, over time the knowledge of all the little tricks that are necessary to make soccer balls cheaply and effectively are lost as they’re transported to Bangladesh.

This might not be such a big deal when it comes to soccer balls, because you can (in a pinch) use the heads of your enemies for one, which would make soccer my favorite sport, ever.  But when it comes to things like computer chips, well, that’s a different story.  I believe it was the head of the Economic Advisors of George H.W. Bush’s White House who made the comment that he didn’t care if Americans were making potato chips or computer chips as long as they had a job.  Oddly, G.H.W. Bush hadn’t had had a job for decades, so, why not?

The question even I don’t know the answer to:  is this my last inflation joke?

Bush’s advisor was wrong.  While Americans were making potato chips, places like Taiwan Semiconductor were making computer chips.  Likewise, they were learning how to make them.  Knowing what’s on a computer chip is nice, but it doesn’t tell me about all the of the steps required to make structures that are so very small that we’re near the limit of shrinking chips because the of the size of the silicon atom itself.  Yeah.  It’s that complicated.  But, hey, we have Ruffles® instead of knowing how to do that.

Making chips of such precision took literally decades of investment, billions of dollars in research, and replicating it is very, very hard, unless you’re China and steal the secrets while putting “your people” in sensitive positions in corporations that do the work.  Oh, did I just describe every industry?

No, there’s an absolute advantage to making computer chips over potato chips.  Building computer chips takes knowledge but it also builds knowledge, some of which can result in additional, new businesses that make use of the technologies developed in building computer chips.  Imagine, a PEZ® dispenser a billionth of an inch (40 Newtons) tall!  This was what the Soviets dreamed of!

Speaking of names, because of inflation, Dollar Tree® will soon be calling itself Tree Dollar®.

It’s not just the high technology parts that go into nearly every appliance, car, and weapons system that is used in the United States, it also applies to commodities like sweet, sweet oil.  It also applies to rare-earth minerals, which China (currently) leads the world in production.

But rare-earth minerals aren’t all that rare – we have them in the United States, but don’t have active mines and refining processes.  Why?  It’s expensive to mine here (labor costs) and it’s expensive to mine here (environmental compliance costs).  So, it’s cheaper to ship the mining off to China and just let them do the dirty work since they (at least in the past) don’t seem to care about losing a few million people to escalators, building collapse, explosions, or whatever other dystopian nightmare you can imagine.

How does a mollusk hide from predators?  Clamoflage.

The downside of this global civilization is that it’s pretty tightly wound.  In most cases, companies don’t like to stockpile “stuff” so they have it delivered just when it’s needed and don’t have a big supply sitting in a warehouse.  When writing for a post a few years ago, I wanted to know how much grain was sitting in the silos near Modern Mayberry (which is near the silos that produced the grain).

The answer surprised me – the silos were nearly always one-half to two-thirds full.  Whoever is making the bread doesn’t want the wheat until they’re ready for it – they certainly don’t store it on site until it’s much closer to becoming a loaf.

COVID exposed the supply chain, and the panic response of the public.  Toilet paper was in short supply not because there wasn’t enough toilet paper, but rather because there wasn’t enough toilet paper capacity to produce 1,000 roles for every person today.

If I had a $0.05 for every bread joke I’ve told, I’d have a pun per nickel.

As warfare hits Ukraine and Israel (and maybe the wider Middle East) and as tensions rachet with China over the status of Taiwan, which just happens to lead the world in computer chip manufacturing, we’ll soon see if the globalism that we’ve faced is as fatal to the fate of nations as it was to so many million middle-class jobs in the United States.  When we (by default) import Bangladeshi labor along with the millions of illegal aliens that we destroy, we (by default, eventually) import the Bangladeshi lifestyle.

Pardon me, I need to research how to cook spider webs.

The Big Short – The Next Step Down

“Our investment-strategy was simple. People hate to think about bad things happening so they always underestimate their likelihood.” – The Big Short

If you live in a haunted house, you’re not alone.

I watched The Big Short the other night.  It’s about the financial system and the shenanigans that led to the near collapse of the Western financial world, but presented with elements of light-hearted comedy, so, of course I enjoyed it.  And having Margot Robbie sitting in a bubble bath describing mortgage-backed securities, subprime loans, and credit default swaps while drinking champagne was genius.

The premise of the movie is that several groups of people figured out that the housing market was fraudulent, and that any human with a heartbeat (and, as described in the movie, at least one dog) could borrow enough money to buy a house.

Why not?  House prices only go up.

I’m no Margot Robbie, but when I’m naked in the bathroom, at least the shower gets turned on.

There have been many people who have done excellent pieces describing the sheer insanity of the housing market and the incestuous relationships between the lenders and rating agencies that kept the party going with cheap money far too long.  You can read them, but they don’t feature a picture of Margot Robbie in a bathtub.

In my personal experience, a bank that rhymes with Hells Rarmo offered me a loan for over six times my annual income with only my stated salary as the basis.  My response, “You know, I could never afford to pay that back.  Why would you offer a loan that big to me?”

“I know, but I’m required to tell you about it,” was the answer from the uncomfortable voice on the other end.  Even I could see the con from there, especially since they offered to lend me my downpayment.

The next home loan I got (after the collapse, in 2009) required enough personal information from me that I had to hire a proctologist to help me fill out the paperwork.

What’s a three-letter word that starts with gas?  Car.

The result of the Great Recession that followed was a retooling of the industry, bankers and people from the ratings agencies went to prison for fraud, and the government decided to create a system of sound money so these sorts of manias were tamed.  Okay, you can laugh now, because none of that really happened.

The government just shoved so much money down the throats of the banks that they got even richer for manipulating the system in ways that would make Al Capone’s scar twitch.

What I saw during the run up to the disaster is that the economic taint (heh heh, I said taint) from the housing bubble spilled everywhere.  The place I noticed it first was that waitresses became worse.  Why?  During the bubble, everyone upgraded their job, and good, smart waitresses became, (spins wheel) mortgage brokers and realtors.  The mark of a really good economy is crappy customer service.

She don’t lie, she don’t lie . . . romaine.

I wrote a couple of weeks back about how I can see this happening in restaurants locally here:

The Invisible Recession

People are hurting, and the first thing to cut are the luxuries.  Some people take eating out at McDonald’s© as a luxury versus heating up leftover lasagna, and now they’re bringing the lasagna.  Garfield® would be proud, but McDonald’s® rarely makes money from cartoon cats.

Add in gasoline prices that are so high they make prescription drugs look cheap, and the squeeze is here.  CarMax© just recently announced that they’ve taken a 10% hit last quarter in number of cars sold.  People don’t buy cars when they’re worried about choosing between day-old lasagna and a McChicken™ sandwich.

At least one of you will enjoy this one.

The biggest tension in The Big Short came from the fact that the guys who saw the fraud went all-in.  In one case, Micheal Burry put $1.3 billion into “insurance policies” that would pay multiples of the invested amount if the mortgages bonds started collapsing the way that Burry was sure that they would.

Burry made a $1.3 billion bet, and on top of that, he had to pay monthly premiums in the millions to keep the policy in force.  Yet, even as the housing market started to fail, the housing bonds weren’t failing.  If those bonds didn’t start falling Burry and his fund would be buried.  John Maynard Keynes famously said that “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent,” proving that he was at least occasionally right.

Economics jokes are like bank bailouts.  Most people don’t get them.

They did fail, and Burry made his investors rich, just in the nick of time before his fund became insolvent.  Burry (according to rumors) ended up making over $800 million during the financial crisis.

All this brings us to where we are today.  I might be wrong, but what I’m seeing everywhere I look are people that are at the end of their rope.  The reason?  Because we never took the pain and we didn’t clean up the financial system and make it a servant rather than a master.

But I have a plan.  Maybe Margot Robbie could explain our way out of this one?