“Enjoy it while it lasts, I have a feeling there’s going to be a shortage of cold beer this summer.” – The Stand

Well, well, well.
“Pop, what was your first car?” Pugsley asked.
“Do you mean the first one I owned? Or . . .”
“No, the first one that was, you know, yours. Like how mine is the pickup.” I knew that was the question he was asking, but sometimes dads like to tease.
I replied, “My first car was a 1975 green GMC® truck. Stick shift, just like yours. It had a rubber floor, no A/C, and all the radio you could want, if you liked AM. And it had a vinyl bench seat. Vinyl bench seats were nice. When your date got in, she could slide right over next to you.”

And in college, this one girl said we didn’t have chemistry together.
I smiled, remembering the first time I took a girl on a date. I tried to capture that first date magic with The Mrs. for our last anniversary, but she got mad when I tried to drop her off with her Mom and Dad.
Even though it was only “my” pickup for two years, it was a wonderful little truck with the worst engine that you could imagine. I think it put out at least a dozen horsepower. But it was my first taste of freedom.
“Yeah, weird that there’s a shortage of trucks now,” I said.
“What?” Pugsley laughed. “What’s the joke?”
As most people know, that’s not a joke. Because of a semiconductor shortage, new trucks are in short supply. They can make the rest of the truck, but they can’t make it work without computer chips.
Since people keep their old trucks longer, spare parts for older trucks are in short supply, too.
Shortages tend to build up and have ripple effects.

And my brain is now randomly deleting memory, too.
I started thinking and realized that, with the exception and weirdness of the Great Toilet Paper Famine of 2020, Pugsley has lived in a world of abundance. In his world, people don’t have to line up for products, the products line up for the people and wait for them. Probably the only shortage he’s used to is a shortage of spending money.
That was intentional.
In my life as well I can’t recall any real shortages of anything. I recall (vaguely) my parents talking about a gas shortage. I guess that impacted the people in Flint, Michigan a lot: I heard they had a shortage of unleaded.
The only other shortage I recall was the normal shortage of fruits and vegetables when they weren’t being grown. Strawberries? “Get some frozen ones,” Ma Wilder would say if I wanted strawberries in winter. “Strawberries are out of season.”

I got a strawberry stuck in my ear once. My doctor had cream for that.
Back then, the technology didn’t really exist for the behemoth national chains to manage global logistics to get strawberries in winter. Now? Fresh fruit and vegetables are flown across the globe. I read that one particular species of fish (don’t remember which one) was caught in Chile, flown across the ocean to China for processing, and then flown to the United States for consumption. Teach a man to fish and he has fish for life. Give a man a fish and he’ll create a multinational logistics chain to optimize profitability.
This is efficient. It makes use of low labor prices in China for processing. But, as we’ve discussed, again and again, efficiency is bad. Efficiency is why we have a shortage of electronic chips for trucks to move that fish today. I don’t think the British have this issue – I keep hearing about their fish and chips.
One consequence of efficiency is concentration. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company™ (TSMC) was named with all of the characteristic creativity of a colorblind engineer whose parents were introverted accountants.
“What are we making?”
“Semiconductors.”
“Where are we going to make them?”
“Taiwan.”
“I have an idea. Now you might think it’s crazy . . .”
One thing about excellence is that it brings smart people with similar skills together to work on tough problems. The more they learn, the more smart people show up because as they solve one problem, another one comes up, and, pretty soon (if the solutions are profitable enough) there are lots of smart people around. Give the nerds enough time, and they will solve enough problems that they will know more about the subject than anyone else on the planet. Unless it involves deodorant.

And the movie came out in the early 1980s . . .
That makes for very efficient, centralized production. Detroit sprang up around the auto, New York around money, and Paris around wide, broad avenues that were perfect for a panzer parade.
But these centers of excellence are centers of vulnerability. TSMC™ has recently illustrated the vulnerability of companies all over the world to a single manufacturer. Even going back into the deeper past, during the period of the Roman Empire, most porcelain plates and cups were made in the south of France. When the Empire fell, everyone was stuck eating out of Tupperware™ from that box in the garage with all their college stuff in it for five hundred years.

Another danger from plastic storage tubs? Developing Tupperculosis.
Covid-19 triggered shortages have exposed how precarious an efficient world is. We are often dependent upon single sources of materials and innovation from areas all across the globe to bring us something as simple as the Large Hadron Collider, even though most people think they could construct it from spare parts to a 1993 Buick™ and that old refrigerator that they have in their garage.
Efficiency has made us vulnerable. I have no real reason that while we’re in the midst of the ‘Rona Retreat around the world to think that this will change for the better soon. As freedom collapses, and as efficient markets based on low inflation implode, we aren’t headed for a time of plenty.
Soon we may miss the time when stuff waited for us in the grocery store, and the thought of that might bring a happy memory like the thought of a long-gone 1975 GMC® truck.
With bench seats . . . .

























































Why don’t Leftists wear bikinis to the beach? I mean, I thought they had nothing to hide.



