“Dr. Norman was experimenting with energy and mass. To make it brief, it got away from him. He found he had made a mass of energy that somehow came alive. It feeds on more energy, and it lives only to feed. I’m afraid it consumed Dr. Norman before he could stop it.” – Jonny Quest
I was once kidnapped by a gang of mimes. They did unspeakable things to me.
Apologies to all on missing the podcast tonight – The Mrs. was feeling great this morning, and then headed south about two hours before the show. Darn her for demanding that she have actual oxygen in her blood. So selfish! Should she feel okay, we’re looking at having a New Year’s Eve show (her idea) on, wait for it, New Year’s Eve. I’m thinking 9pm Eastern, but who knows – her blood is fickle.
So, on to today’s post, inspired by a reader’s comment on email . . .
The most fundamental economic and political choice of our lives is energy. I phrased that intentionally – the impacts of the energy we use as a society are economic. Energy has been political since the 1930s, at the very least.
The idea of energy might be economic and political, but the reality is pure physics. There is no law that Congress can pass that can create more energy – only allow that which exists to be used. And there is no amount of money that can be printed to that can make energy appear where none exists.
Some Leftists say truth is subjective, but let them try to pretend that their house at -40°F is actually 70°F. I guess that you could say that they’re trans-comfortable? No. They’re frozen. Reality is like that. And energy is like that, too. Unlike monetary policy or laws, energy doesn’t care what people want.
The story of energy, though, is the story of human culture.
Energy has been a part of human life since the first waggling finger (thank you, Rudyard, original poem below) burned itself on a fire. Meat tastes good, but tastes better once it has been cooked. It also heated the caves and tents that early man lived in. It was the original killer app – I can guarantee that at some point, a fire in a cabin or tent or cave saved someone who was your direct ancestor.
I hear you can get fired from the keyboard factory if you don’t put in enough shifts.
In the form of crude wood fires, energy did a few things for people, helping to tan skins, cure meats, harden wood, and eventually fuel fires that made the first man-made metals and ceramics. The demand was low, but the impacts were huge. Food, clothing, weapons, and the basis of civilization. You can’t have beer unless you have a beer bottle, right?
Romans used it even more – they had central heating in their villas in Roman Britain, heated baths, and used it in lots of other ways I’m too lazy to look up. One hint: those Roman shields and swords didn’t make themselves. And the iron nails in Jerusalem, circa 32 A.D.? Yeah, those required energy as well.
Romans were amazing at using energy, but most of the energy they used was human; they didn’t exactly have outboard motors on their ships. It was wind or oars. The Romans used fire, but the real energy source for Empire was animal and human. That source of energy was totally renewable – people are born every day, and they eat food that is raised every year.
There are huge implications to this: slave labor was the original renewable energy. Oops! That’s not politically correct, though the World Economic Forum® did take notes.
After the fall of the Roman Empire, people continued to innovate. That’s what we do. Dams provided water power for mills. Mills could grind grain, or they could operate pumps to pull water out of mines. And wind? Windmills could use wind to mill. Duh. It’s in the name.
If a former president didn’t like windmills, could we call him Donald Quixote?
All of that was a necessary predecessor to the real powerhouse: steam. Sure, steam-powered toys had been created 2,000 years earlier, but steam power was needed because of the mines that were needed to get the metals to manufacture electric guitars and iPads® back in the 1600s. Or whatever they did with them. Maybe banjos?
The Industrial Revolution came almost entirely based on the use of energy. The developments in the 1800s changed everything. Transport? Trains. Communications? Telegraphs. Cool products? Factories. Navy? Fast steamships. This is a wickedly small set of examples – the availability of energy changed everything. But at this point, the energy mix changed. Prior, it was mostly wood.
Now it was the age of coal and steel.
The biggest change it created was the ability to have a metric butt-ton of additional people. Energy changed agriculture and changed food distribution. After the Haber-Bosch process allowed for the fixing of nitrogen for increased plant yields (which required another metric butt-ton of energy) but this changed the demand. Coal was still pretty nifty, but it was no longer enough.
Now was the age of oil.
Cars were required to move products. Gas was required for fertilizer, and heating and chemical products.
Tesla® cars are expensive because they charge a lot.
The result of all of this was amazing – an explosion of the numbers of people living on Earth like never before, even in places that could never support them.
Wars were fought over energy. Why did the Germans fight at Stalingrad? Because they were trying to secure oil. There was no hybrid-panzer. The Allies won because there were lakes of oil underneath Texas, mountains of iron ore in Minnesota, and marksmen from Georgia. The biggest contributor?
The oil.
Without it, the Shermans don’t sherm, the Mustangs won’t must, and the carrier fleet are amusing, odd-shaped coral reefs. Oil won World War II. If the Germans had the reserves of Texas under Bavaria, Stalin would have been a minor footnote in history after 1942.
Oil was pretty plentiful as geologists wend around the world hunting for it after 1945. It was found in the wastelands of the Arctic, the scorching deserts of Saudi Arabia, and on the coast of California. Really, anywhere where people don’t want to live in 2022.
The lakes of oil in Texas weren’t infinite. In 1973, Texas removed controls on production. The straws weren’t dry, but the abundance was done. The Arabs also decided that, perhaps, oil was now (for the second time since 1943) the most potent weapon in the world besides nuclear bombs and Leftism was unleashed. The oil embargo showed how much the world depended on oil to make Big Macs™ and G.I. Joes©. One oil shock (combined with Nixon’s taking the United States off the gold standard) was enough to send the economy into the stagflation of the 1970s.
But I heard since he died, he’s a great cook. His pasta is Al Dante.
Oil is why the Cold War ended. Star Wars was an important initiative, but the bigger cause of the failure of the Soviet Union was that Reagan convinced the Saudis to pump oil like it was free. The Soviet economy, dependent on oil revenue to keep their machine going? Done. Oil killed the two out of three of the great empires of the twentieth century.
That brings us to today.
Almost all of the growth in oil production since 2008 was based on fracking. The previous pools of oil were still producing, but the oil companies had to go farther and farther afield, such as deep water miles deep in places like the Gulf of Mexico. Places where getting the oil was expensive – it’s not like we found another several billion barrels in the backyard behind the garden shed. Regular places where oil was were drying up. A game changer was needed. Something different.
Fracking was different. It was difficult, required new technologies, and grew by a factor of ten in only ten years, making the United States a net energy exporter for the first time since before John Kennedy did an afternoon drive in Texas.
Oil is an amazing fuel, and I bathe in sweet, sweet gasoline every night. But to meet the needs of the world, the struggle is difficult. Cheap energy takes huge investment, but that’s not all. It requires the energy source to be there.
The Mrs. says I’m cheap. I’m not buying it.
Our energy has been cheap since about 1920 or so. The idea that it will be cheap forever is magical thinking, unless oil is infinite (it is not). Our choice on energy isn’t economic, it’s based on physics.
And, with everything I’ve read, the physics of alternative energy solutions, especially the “renewable” ones that are touted based on political reasons, result in the energy cost doubling (at least) and that’s after the investment of trillions of dollars to build the necessary energy production facilities and infrastructure. This will likely be the subject of future posts.
I hate to break the Christmas spirit, but it is the single most important question facing humanity today. When the price of energy is low, freedom is high. When the price of energy is high?
Oh, yeah. Slavery.
As promised, here’s Kipling, Gods of the Copybook Headings:
As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market-Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall.
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn.
That water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision, and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorilas while we followed the March of Mankind.
We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither clud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market-Place;
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.
With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch.
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch.
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings.
So we worshiped the Gods of the Market Who promiced these beautiful things.
When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promiced perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: ‘Stick to the Devil you know.’
On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promiced the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbor and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: ‘The Wages of Sin is Death/’
In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selective Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: ‘If you don’t work you die.’
The the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tounged wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to belive it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four—
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man—
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began:—
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her mire,
And the burnt Fool’s bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!
One correction, they didn’t start drilling in the Gulf of Mexico because the oil ran out in Texas. They were forced to by government regulation. It is incredibly hard to drill for oil in the Gulf, especially when there’s still very large amounts of oil under the Texas soil. In fact, many of the wells that were thought to have dried out long ago are producing again. So basically, every single oil spill in the Gulf that the enviro freaks rail against is the direct result of government interference in the market.
My family has a small patch of land in South Texas. Oil companies have been drilling there since the 1930’s. Literally there in that small patch, as in I have the signed contracts when they first started. They are still drilling there 90 years later.
Finally, science (real science) is starting to think oil isn’t old dinosaur sauce but comes from other sources and will continue to replenish. Thus, it could very well be that oil is a renewable resource and we should probably focus on how to use it in the most efficient manner rather than depart to batteries, solar and wind which cannot even come close to matching the scale at which we use energy.
It’s abiotic, period.
You might also have mentioned that the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in retaliation for the US embargo on oil sales from Indonesia to Japan, which was itself a response to the Japanese invasion of China (something that I didn’t learn until about ten years ago). They really needed that oil.
And almost half of the US Submarine fleet was busy sinking oil tankers as well as freighters in the Pacific War.
The major Japanese error was attacking the well defended warships instead of the oil refuelers and freighters carrying troops and ammo.
Energy or lack of it controls much of history. Thus, the American “Shock and Awe” tactics of destroying all the civilian infrastructure in every country we visit. Thus, Russian’s recent attacks on the grid of country 404 after it became too obvious that the US would fight until the last Ukranian, providing them several times the Russian national defense budget this year.
Sad that the world is still buying all the Russian fuel they can produce. And that American has crippled their own oil-gas production due to Green “Wokeness”.
Europe is still buying all the Russian gas and fuels they can get past the American sanctions but will soon learn the results of being dependent upon the USA.
The Petrodollar depends on the good will of the house of Saud. They are doing more business with China and starting to sell their oil in other currencies in violation of our agreements.
2023 going to be an “Interesting Year”. Interesting as in Chinese curse.
Got two years of storage foods? Got trusted friends? Going to need them.
People forget that a few generations ago, Nippon had global ambitions. Island nations often must expand for resources or be subject to other powers. That martial spirit has not disappeared from the rising sun nation. With America an amasculine nation, the embers of that fire-spirit are stirring again.
Remember also that the spirit of Japan is anti-Christian, having persecuted God’s people whenever he thought it safe. It is a nation aligned spiritually with the Eastern dragons, not with Christ.
That was a huge driver on their attack, though their guess about what would happen was pretty off the mark . . .
Been a GM of or a consultant to oil jobbers since 1976. 40 years ago the US had what I’d call a “redundant” petroleum distribution system. In a county of 100K population you’d have 6-7 petro marketers with bulk plants that stored 100K or so gallons of gasoline, diesel, kerosene and heating oil. Delivery was mostly using 1800-2200 gallon tankwagon trucks. Only the higher volume C-stores had 8,800 gallon transport delivery.
Now, you might have 1-2 such bulk plants in that county. Our county of 200K has ZERO, as it’s main industry is tourism/golf.
The bottom line? A minor supply disruption becomes big quick. And ugly.
It’s all in the name of being efficient. And we really don’t want to have an efficient system.
Oil is still cheap but many would not believe it. FJB
Compared to any alternative material, oil is incredibly cheap. Compared to human labor energy, oil is almost unimaginably cheap. One day’s unskilled labor (think “pedaling an exercise bike”) is roughly equal to one kilowatt hour: $0.15. Not $15/hour! Not $0.15/hour. $0.15 per 8-hour day!
There ya go, following The Science. The “Fight For Fifteen” movement values eight hours of human labor down at McDonalds (think “flipping and bagging burgers”) as being worth 8*15 = $120. That’s a Leftist vs. Physics ratio of 120/0.15 = 800 to 1.
Such a large disconnect from reality lends itself to incredible arbitrage opportunities.
Yup. Oil is freedom.
It is. FJB, indeed, but oil is the most vital resource we have . . . along with PEZ.
When they talk about “renewable energy” I like to point out that we lived on renewable energy through all of human history – burning wood. If we tried to do that today, there wouldn’t be a forest left in the world within a year.
In the last couple of years as attention has switched to fracking and natural gas, some analysts tried to figure out how much energy was in the Permian basin under Texas and New Mexico (for the most part). They said it’s best to consider it infinite. Yeah, we’re on a finite world so nothing is really infinite, but it’s hundreds of years worth. Enough supply to develop better sources. And that’s just one of the many basins under the US and in the world.
Energy is the universal currency. Without it, nothing can be made, nothing can be bought, the population drops to a couple of percent of what it is now. The problem is the people who put themselves in charge actively want to reduce the population to that level. They’re pretty open about it in the WEF and groups of greenies.
Energy is freedom. When it’s plentiful, freedom is abundant. When not? Freedom shrinks.
I’ve heard some varying info on the fracked gas and oil, but will work to sort it out on future posts. Great info.
Energy demand will always strain supply. And require dangerous work by strong, capable men to procure it. Think of those two-year whaling voyages back in the days of oil lamps that claimed more lives than any other occupation of the time. Coal mining and off-shore drilling are more modern notorious widowmakers. As the supply of easier-access energy (and strong, capable men) falls precipitously, the demand for it only grows.
So naturally the boobs in charge (biden, newsome, AOC, et al) insist that we turn to the “free” “green” energy of the sun and the sky for our needs, failing utterly to understand that the tiny trickle from those photovoltaic cells and ugly, bird-devouring turbines don’t even begin to suffice.
Crom laughs at your sun and four winds, greenies. And AOC’s brilliant solution of plugging outlet strips into themselves to create more electric power is proving…underwhelming. Unless and until we embrace nuclear in a great, big bear hug, our energy future is doomed.
Amen on the nuclear great big bear hug. But it ain’t happening.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day/?sh=4fb45cea35f7
Some interesting graphs to go with John’s excellent history summary…
https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption
The key is not just oil in general, but diesel in particular…
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/electricity-vs-oil-1d286ec44f6a
I think we need to embrace it all . . . but that’s more in the future.
I worked in the oil patch. At that time, I worked with some old men that had worked in multiple facilities. Their stories convinced me that regardless of what people think, oil producers never give completely accurate information, supposed dry wells are not really dry, the power of oil surpasses anything any government can regulate, and the media is mostly ignorant college graduates that managed to find something more financially rewarding than mopping floors in a fast food restaurant.
Ha! You’re right there! It depends on the angle. If they’re wanting to sell, there’s a lot of oil. If they’re not, there isn’t.
As a beginning, I recommend Simon Michaux’s excellent work on the quantity of metal and other minerals required to make just one generation of renewable tech units. Does the amount of copper previously mined in all of human history, just for the first generation sound doable? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBVmnKuBocc
Excellent, excellent posts. The tech (at the current point) doesn’t scale up. And never will.
But maybe (again, future posts) that’s the point.
Energy is now so abundant and cheap that the world barely considers it. It is, to most, effectively just like the sun, rain, and other natural events. The lack of it, via temporary discontinuation or disaster or just a place where “there is no power”, is viewed with the same sort of resigned sigh as a weather event – it will always be back.
Until, of course, one goes to click with switch and it is not there. And not there. And still not there.
I am not a huge predictor of the future, but my suspicion is that someday in the future (presuming we have one with energy), this infatuation with renewable energy will be a full historical analysis including the environmental destruction and waste that it created and the lives lost when, during a brief historical moment of insanity, countries went “all in” to renewables and suffered unfortunate and dramatic consequences.
Part of future posts on this topic will talk through infrastructure . . .
Leftists do NOT live in the real world…and haven’t for a very long time. Till that fact is remedied the destruction they wreak on society will continue and expand.
They don’t. But their leaders don’t care.
(Trying this again)
I hope that you and yours have had an excellent Penultimate Day!
It was!!! Thank you!!!!