Cassandra Says: Look Out Below

“Doing so might allow the energy to escape, with potentially catastrophic results.” – Lost

What do you get when you cross the Titanic with the Atlantic?  Halfway.

There is a rumor in The Mrs.’ family, that her Great-Grandpappy, the banker, warned all of his clients to pull their money out of the banks before Black Monday on October 28 of 1929.  According to the legend, he was a hero because he saved that money for all of his friends.  I heard that as an old banker he was sad, because he always drank a loan.

I have no idea if he saved all of that money, but the legend serves a purpose:  it confirms that, in most people’s minds, that there are wise people who can see trouble coming.

I can do that, too.  When The Mrs. chucks a can of Dinty Moore Beef Stew® at my head, well, I know instinctively that if I don’t duck I’ll end up with a crescent impression on my favorite noggin.  The Mrs. generally chooses stew instead of soup, because when she checked the pantry we were out of stock.

Pattern recognition and seeing trouble coming was something that the dead Roman philosopher, Seneca did fairly well.  Like a good Roman, he took a stab at it.

In one observation, Seneca noted that it’s really hard to build things up:  whether it be getting into good physical shape, or building a house or creating a civilization.  Purposeful, positive growth is hard and takes time.

Where did Brutus get his knife?  Traitor Joe’s.

But if I want to ruin my health it only takes half the time as it does to get into good shape.  A modern American house burns down so quickly that firefighters tell me that they don’t even try to save them.  If a Goodwill® store catches fire, they stay far away – they don’t want to inhale second-hand smoke.  If you want to destroy a civilization?  Well more on that later, but they evaporate much more quickly than it takes to build them.

Here’s what Seneca said:  “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.”  Actually, he said something in Latin, but when you quote Latin it sounds like a doctor is trying to pick up on a lawyer while gargling vodka.

I came across this concept while reading Italian chemistry professor Ugo Bardi’s blog (Cassandra’s Legacy) back in 2011.  That initial post I read back then is here (LINK).  Since that time, Dr. Bardi has written two books and now bases most of his blogging on that one philosophical statement.  Some people ride that one pony and ride it hard, and it looks like Ugo has found his.

There are some other things I’ve noticed that are related to this concept:

Generally, things go on until they collapse.  Is it easier to tear down a system and build a better one, or keep the old one going?

Duh.  People don’t like change.

They aren’t mentally wired for change.  During the few times in my life when electricity was out for extended times at the house (think hours or days), I find that I’ll walk into a dark room and absently reach out to turn on the light.  My rational mind knows that the power is gone, but I expect it to be there.

I hear at this blackout, people in New York City were stuck on escalators for hours.

When things collapse, there is generally a lot of energy built up in the failing system.  People try to prop up the system with all of the duct tape and baling wire they have.  This rarely makes things better.  Filling a failing dam up with more water doesn’t make the flood that comes after the dam fails better.

It makes it more catastrophic.

Failures like I’m describing tend to have the following characteristics:

  • They are cataclysmic. The end state isn’t predictable.
  • They happen all at once. As systems fail, they trigger the failure of related systems.  And so on.  It’s a chain reaction.  To go back to the flood analogy, these failures scour the landscape, ripping out useful and useless features alike simply because of the amount of energy that was released.
  • The more energy that’s stored (i.e., the longer we push back paying the piper), the bigger the destruction and the worse the hangover.

What’s the difference between a dam and a sock?  Almost everything.

Examples of this sort of near-apocalyptic societal transformation are actually abundant in history.

  • The French Revolution. In just a few short years, the French monarchy was deposed and replaced by a ruling junta of Leftist animals.
  • The first United States Civil War. It went from zero to armed combat across half a continent in just a few months.
  • The First World War. The Russian Revolution.  The Second World War.
  • The collapse of the Soviet Union.
  • I could really keep writing this list until dawn, but at some point I need some sleep.

The penalties are tough for misgendering in France. 

Just because the initial change happens in an instant, doesn’t mean that those changes will resolve in an instant.  The French Revolution started in 1789.  If you date the unrest that started on that day, you could pick the date that Napoleon went into his final exile as perhaps the end.  That was in 1814.

A girl born in 1789 in France would have been, perhaps, 25 then.  She would nearly certainly have been married, and probably would have her own child by then.  When we study history we encompass entire generations within the span of a paragraph, though some say that Moses started history when he got the first download from a cloud onto a tablet.

As I said, The Mrs.’ Great-Gramps apparently saved the day for his depositors because he looked around and saw what was going to happen.  True or not, it sometimes happens in reality.

Michael Burry did it, and more than once.

Who is Michael Burry?  Well, he’s the guy who shorted the real estate market in 2008 and made $100’s of millions of dollars for himself, and nearly a billion for other people in the process.

Christian Bale was movie him in The Big Short.  Burry just might have an idea or two about the economy.  What’s his take?

I wonder if they could get Chris Hemsworth to play movie me?

All I can say is be prepared – a day too late is far worse than a year too soon.

Author: John

Nobel-Prize Winning, MacArthur Genius Grant Near Recipient writing to you regularly about Fitness, Wealth, and Wisdom - How to be happy and how to be healthy. Oh, and rich.

36 thoughts on “Cassandra Says: Look Out Below”

    1. No, The Mrs. and I have definitions, i.e., that someone is “movie you” or “television you”. Television “me” is more attractive than me. Movie “me” is MUCH more attractive than me. So, television me might be Paul Giamatti (if he were much taller) and movie me could be Chris Hemsworth, if he discovered carbs.

  1. For every Michael Burry and Mrs. Gramps there are a thousand Chicken Littles. But every once in a while even Chicken Little gets it right. We only hear about the successes, typically. And those who predict doom and gloom which does not materialize (looking right between your beady eyes, Algore) often appear paranoid and foolish. For this reason, I prep. But I prep…quietly.

    On a recent visit, Daughter-in-Law razzed me mercilessly about my accumulation of freeze-dried beef and chicken in #10 tins which she stumbled upon deep in the pantry. Had she known what each one of those astonishingly light cans cost, I’d never hear the end of it. Until, that is, the SHTF and she finds that the doors of the Piggly Wiggly are permanently shuttered. At that point I might feel inspired to make casual mention of the fact that she is not, technically, ‘blood’.

    Nah, I wouldn’t be that cruel. Probably.

    1. Every day you’re wrong, everyone’s happy.

      Every day you’re right, everyone wants to be you.

  2. Outstanding puns today, John. Thanks for the belly laughs, I need them lately.

    A few months ago Berry unleashed an epic tweetstorm that everybody should read.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-burry-warns-weimar-hyperinflation-coming

    TL,DR:

    “…all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.”

    “Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow. Germany’s #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.”

    “2010-2021: Gestation”

  3. A ‘civil war’ is defined as two or more groups fighting to control one government.
    .
    The phrase ‘civil war’ is often used inaccurately to describe events on the north American continent 1861-65.
    .
    Were the Confederate States Of America a sovereign nation?
    They fit all the criteria, they fit the definition.
    During 1861-65, were those events a ‘civil war’?
    Nope.
    The people of the Confederacy just wanted to be left alone, so they withdrew from the bankers of New York city.
    Seceded.
    Stands to reason.
    (As an aside, I seceded sometime around my twentieth birthday. Secession may not be for everybody, but you never know until that first delicious flavor-filled bite of succulent goodness. Just saying.)
    .
    Now, class, we shall look into the series of events across the north American continent 1767-86.
    Were multiple groups fighting to control a government?
    This sounds like a real honking ‘civil war’ with all the trimmings!
    .
    .
    Do you have time for another nincompoopery to be unceremoniously flang into the dustbin of propagandazville?
    Here goes…
    .
    The mythical cry of Paul Revere as he warned of invaders:
    * “The brits are coming! The brits are coming!”
    is fundamentally inaccurate.
    Pretty much everybody on the north American continent was a brit.
    The Revere legend, while amusing, does not reflect reality.
    .
    Can you imagine everything you know is wrong?
    [offers hug to any saddy faces]

    1. In defense of Paul Revere, at the time, there was a distinction in the minds of nearly everyone between British subjects born in England and those born in the colonies. The former were “British” and the latter were “Colonials”.

      Cheers!

      1. When asked, late in life, which of his inventions was his favorite, Ben Franklin replied, “Americans”.

    2. Bonus: The Federalists (Hamilton, et al.) literally stole the name of their opponents, forcing them to be known as the “anti-Federalists.”

      And what we call “States” now, meant “nations” back in ye olde 18C.

      Also: Where do you get that definition of “civil war”? And how do you define ” government? Is it just the Federal or is it also regional governments, like say, that of Missouri, Texas, West Virginia or Florida?

      Definitions matter.

    3. But the way I heard it was “The Redcoats are coming. The Redcoats are coming.” Poetic license? Obviously, the Redcoats (soldiers) were the problem, not every “Brit”.

      A close look at the bayonet on the Redcoat rifle is a sobering moment.

  4. The market seems frothy, but the US has $28.2T of debt outstanding and more Federal debt coming. That number doesn’t include overcommitments in Medicare and Social Security or private and state debt.

    That money has to go somewhere. Often it goes outside our shores where it gets placed in stocks as an alternative to T-bonds. Stocks and real estate get juiced when the US prints more money. Causes asset inflation. So does overeating.

    Domestic inflation gets amped when we do stimulus programs, extended unemployment, etc.

    – – – – – – –

    Since you were talking about Cassandra, although we live in luxury compared to the former Soviets, I’m feeling like we’re in our own USSR moment.

    I’m rereading MiG Pilot by John Barron to improve on my gratitude, but I see some uncomfortable similarities between Viktor Belenko’s problems with the Soviet system and us. Sad because I bought MiG Pilot when I was very young and touring a military museum. It was a book which inspires, now it’s a book that warns.

      1. “The United States are making sure-footed strides directly along the path of the Soviet Union.”

        Who said that? Vladimir Putin, as quoted by Dmitri Orlov. Here it is, in more context:

        “But I’ll tell you what the problem is, as a former citizen of the Soviet Union. The problem of empires is that they imagine themselves to be so powerful that they can allow themselves small miscalculations and errors. Some they’ll bribe, some they’ll scare, some they’ll make a deal with, some they’ll give glass beads, some they’ll frighten with warships—and this will fix problems. But the number of problems continues to grow. There comes a moment when they can no longer cope with them. The United States are making sure-footed strides directly along the path of the Soviet Union.” (as translated by Orlov).

        http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

        Personally, I think Russia is a long-term mercantile and criminal adversary of the US and the West in general, but that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t take Putin’s comments seriously. (I really wonder what will happen with the Russian government when Putin leaves the scene. Big men leave long shadows.

        1. Interesting.

          Everything you said about Russia, I believe about China. Especially after their lab accident and coverup. The USSR was definitely an enemy of the USA.

          I see the leftist threat as our biggest problem, and China as our second greatest challenge.

          When I look at the progress of socialism and other leftist ideologies in this country, the likelihood we are starting to see political prisoners in this country (the 1/6 episode not treated anywhere like the BLM mob violence of summer 2020), BLM flags displayed in US embassies and in a military post in Africa (the message isn’t political, like heck it isn’t)

          There were important differences between us and the USSR, primarily in wealth. I’d like to avoid the fate of the USSR for our country, but we’ll see… Not sure I agree with Putin as to why the US will disintegrate. The US reasoning seems a lot simpler. 1/2 of us want America. 1/2 of us want a leftist paradise. And the two halves have irreconcilable differences.

          What about Russia? I don’t know, they had great writers in the late 1800s, like Gogol, Dostoyevsky and Tolstoy. I also like Solzhenitsyn. But as to why I should dislike Russia now versus my intense distaste for the former USSR? Hmmm… would like to read what you have to say.

          1. As far as I know, the most important fact about modern Russia is that it keeps the houses warm in Germany (for example) with its natural gas pipelines. US corporations would prefer that the Germans buy gas from our LNG tankers instead. Then the Euro’s could be OUR energy puppets, instead of Russia’s.

            American pundits like to assume that Russia is a puppet show run entirely by one man (V. Putin), but I don’t see how any one man has the i/o bandwidth to control such a large enterprise. How much autonomy other players have is hard to tell. Whether he’s a “killer” (as suggested to Biden by talker Stephanopolis) or not, every time I’ve read his words, he’s been a smooth-talking, cold-blooded, professional diplomat. I guess he’s been playing the game long enough to be good at it.

            300 years ago, North America was rich with timber, game, minerals, water, and fertile soil. We had a great party as we helped each other exploit the resources, and thought that it was our intelligence and morality that made us rich. As all of these resources are depleted, it seems that our intelligence and morality have also dissipated, but maybe it was never there to begin with.

    1. The farther up you are, the farther you have to fall. The crappy systems people had to use to make ends meet during the Soviet days actually cushioned the crash. If (picks random African country) Uganda were to experience a governmental crisis, they’d call it “Tuesday” . . . .

  5. I chuckle every time I read it all over the webz even though its true and miserable after.

    “It starts slowly, then all at once”

    Great puns today John. Titanic and Atlantic especially, stealing that one as well.

    Trust in your gut instincts.

  6. When I was a teenager I must have mouthed off to my Mom because my Dad uncharacteristically swung a fresh loaf of bread like a baseball bat at the back of my head. The bag burst. Bread went flying through the air, all over the kitchen. And I stopped time for almost two seconds. For those two seconds, future me, present me, and past me had a quick but meaningful conversation.

    Future Me: “If you laugh you are going to die.”
    Present Me: “What in the name of Baphomet’s Diaper is happening?”
    Past Me: “Bah-Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!”

    Present Me must have believed Future Me because Future Me had a vital interest in remaining alive; I somehow managed not to laugh. Do you know what’s really odd? Past Me still laughs every time I think of that moment.

    That’s where we, as a culture, are right now. That two seconds of stopped time. Whatever is coming is going to be Biblical.

    1. Wouldn’t it be Future You that still laughs about the incident, while Past You was saying something along the lines of “based on past experience, if you laugh you are going to die”?

  7. “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” – Seneca

    Creation is hard, because you are basically swimming against the Current of the Universe, which is Entropy.

    But when you align your efforts with destruction, you’re swimming with the Current, which is easier and brings much quicker results.

    Seneca was a smart guy. Love his apple juice, by the way.

    1. Yup, “there’s no such thing as a free lunch,” and, “you can’t win, you can’t even break even,” describe thermodynamics pretty well.

      I like cider better. If only Woodchuck was a great Roman Stoic.

  8. Watching the faculty lounge get hoisted is beautiful as the systemic racism card gets played and Vlad the Putin played the horny Viking insurrection putsch (rock hard and throbbing) card!
    The popcorn is delicious and the epic train wreck outhouse fire clown shitshow is going to be the greatest ever!
    W00-Hoo! Yee haww!
    Rome! Bwahaha! We’ll be lucky to make it to 250 years.

  9. Americans want to live in a police state because Americans hate personal responsibility.

    In a police state, you don’t need to pay your debts. Food, housing, Obamaphones, and medical care are free.

    You can kill kids if the Gestapo tells you to.

    There are no morals because there are no churches.

    If you have a problem, you can just blame Trump, Russia, or the UN.

  10. Reminds me of the quote on how one goes bankrupt, “First very slowly, then very quickly.” I think we’ve reached the very quickly phase. Sadly.

Comments are closed.